Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Nobody]

Like Trump, Putin cares nothing about lives, only power and money.

[Hydra009]

Russian General dies of natural causes

Major General Alexander Kornev, commander of the 7th VDV Airborne Assault Division, reportedly died of a heart attack.  He had reportedly been responsible for war crimes in Kherson and Zaporizhia.

The Ukrainians are good about finding war criminals, but unfortunately, some meet their natural end without facing justice either or retribution.  Though either way, they're gone.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainians destroy costly and rare Russian electronic warfare system

Ukraine also hit S-300 air defense launchers and radars in Donetsk

This ongoing destruction of Russian defenses will eventually lead to widespread vulnerability, leading to future operational success.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian MP charged for treason

The headline certainly got my attention, but it's a little clickbaity/misleading.

1) He was part of the pro-Russian party.
2) He left Ukraine for Russia right as it was invaded
3) He was tried in absentia

So it's not like he was in a mainstream party and he was arrested today in Kyiv for treason.  Now THAT would be news.  The reality is a bit less dramatic but no less serious.  Ukraine experienced a lot of turncoats in 2022, and this stuff must work its way through the courts and be punished if possible and at least recorded if not.

The wiki for his pro-Russian Ukrainian political party is a bit...strange.  "centre-left" press x to doubt.  At the time of the invasion, one of its heads was Medvedchuk, a notorious turncoat (unfun fact: his daughter's godfather is Putin), and it also had this piece of work who officially supported the invasion.

The party's allied parties in other countries (I had no idea this was a thing) is a more than a little bit interesting: Russia's United Russia party (Putin's personal party), France's National Rally (far-right, euroskeptical and very transparently a pro-Putin party), and Israel's Yisrael Beiteinu (right-wing, militarist, and rather curiously, their party name is rendered in Hebrew and Russian).  I wonder what connects all of them?  Such a mystery!

[Hydra009]

First batch of Australian Abrams tanks arrives in Ukraine

Australia pledged 49 total and it looks like they're making it happen.

Australia's Department of Defence then said on July 19, "Ukraine has now taken possession of the majority of these tanks, with delivery of the final tranche to occur in the coming months."

Australia is on target to provide more Abrams tanks to Ukraine than the United States.  Oof.  Biden pledged 31 of them in early 2023 and delivered them all in late 2023.  USA, we gotta boost those numbers up!

[Hydra009]

In Ukraine, there's widespread disapproval of a controversial new law just passed and signed into law which eliminates the independence of anti-corruption institutions

My knowledge of Ukraine's domestic politics is shaky at best, but what I've gathered so far is that Ukraine's two major anti-corruption institutions, National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO), are now subordinate to the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, who is appointed by the President, currently Zelenskyy.  The Prosecutor General can now issue binding instructions to NABU, reassign cases outside the agency, and delegate SAPO's authority to other prosecutors.  NABU and SAPO released a joint statement saying that these recent legislative changes "significantly undermine the independence" of their institutions.  As such, it's a bit of "self-policing" situation which Ukrainian citizens and the West in general have a pretty dim view about, wondering if they would even still be able to do their jobs in that role.

It may even harm Ukraine's EU aspirations, which is a really strange move since joining the EU has long been one of Ukraine's highest priorities, even going so far as to tailor its mineral deal with the US so that the two do not conflict.

To add fuel to the fire of discontent, the same day Zelenskyy signed the bill into law, he implied that these anti-corruption agencies were under Russian influence without giving any details or evidence.

In his nightly video address Tuesday, Zelenskyy justified the move by saying corruption cases took too long to be investigated under the agencies. He also suggested the agencies were compromised. On Monday, Ukraine's security service claimed the anti-corruption watchdogs had Russian moles.

In response to the furor about this bill, Zelenskyy has also stated that Ukraine's law enforcement and anti-corruption institutions will present a joint action plan within two weeks aimed at strengthening the justice system

I've already made me feelings clear about two-week (or 50 day) delays, so it comes as no surprise that I also take a dim view of both this legislation and Zelenskyy's response to criticism of this bill.  I trust the Ukrainian people and they don't like this bill and that's good enough for me.  I have no idea what Zelenskyy is thinking with this and hope he reverses course, though that seems unlikely since he already signed the bill into law.

I hope that this matter is eventually settled in a way that is both good for Ukraine and respects the wishes of Ukrainians.

[Hydra009]

That said, I'm willing to hear out people who have a different take on the situation:

He claims that NABU was ineffective in its core mission of combating corruption, costs an excessive amount, NABU was too secretive (not transparent), and was "heavily infiltrated" by the Russians.  Well, we'll see if those claims are borne out in the coming days.

Even with those claims, he still disapproves this law and wishes these anti-corruption institutions were still independent.  (Though later on, he says that if these claims against NABU are true, he doesn't have a problem with it being restructured, which imho comes perilously close to If By Whisky fallacious reasoning)

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Kyiv Independent: Does Zelensky's crackdown on anti-corruption agencies have anything to do with Russian influence?

Zelensky could also have been referring to the sweeping searches at the NABU and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) that took place on July 21 and targeted two alleged Russian agents.

But even that reference is dubious because two alleged Russian moles do not justify the destruction of Ukraine's whole anti-corruption infrastructure, anti-corruption activists say.

Moreover, no evidence has so far been presented to prove their guilt, and most of the searches were about unrelated traffic violations from several years ago.

While I trust that these statements are accurate, arresting two people at NABU - one over suspected spying for Russia and the other over suspected business ties to Russia - is a very serious thing.  While I assume it's true that no evidence has been presented so far, that doesn't necessarily mean that it doesn't exist or will not be presented at a later date.

The security service said one of the officials, who was unnamed, allegedly collected and sent the details of Ukrainian law enforcement officers and other citizens to the Kremlin.

"At least 60 episodes of transferring restricted information to his contact in the FSB have been documented", the SBU said

If that's true, that's quite ample evidence.  So it makes it hard for me to completely agree with Kyiv Independent on this one.  Yet I still broadly agree with them that this bill is wrong.  By all means, arrest the spies.  But it doesn't follow that the organizations should lose their independence over it.

[Hydra009]

FAFO: American who joined Russia, signed up for military service, then lied to and sent to the frontlines was killed at the frontlines

He leaves behind a wife, three daughters, and zero active brain cells.  Seriously, just stay TF home.  Don't die for a dictator.

This dude got brainwashed by American conservatives and their culture war garbage, joined up with one of the few remaining old school imperial powers right at their land-grabbiest, was lied to and thrown on the frontlines with minimal training, and paid the ultimate price for choosing the wrong people to trust.  These people never gave a single fuck about any of their pawns and they prove it every day by throwing their people to the wolves.  Shoulda listened.

The wife denies his death.  Currently, there are only two sources saying he's KIA - the Maltese Herald and Ukrainainc, neither of which I'm familiar with or very trusting of, so it's possible it wasn't him.  But Americans with no combat experience and minimal training (or familiarity with the Russian language) tend not to last long on the frontline anyway.  It's more of a question of when rather than if, and that when is usually a matter of a few weeks, sometimes more, sometimes less.  Dying on day 1 is not unheard of.

[Nobody]

Couldn't have happened to a more deserving fellow.

[Hydra009]

Interesting news.  I gotta say, I can't pronounce any of those newspaper names, but they have insightful little nuggets.  The Russian government is secretly pleased that there are Ukrainian protests against their government's decision, but they can't put a spotlight on it because they don't want to unintentionally encourage protesting, because the Russian government is terrified of protests against their own regime.

Also, it's quite interesting that the Russian authorities dismiss the protestors as paid.  Familiar rhetoric, isn't it?  I wonder how it got to be so familiar...

[Hydra009]

Russia Forms 'Demographic Special Forces Unit' as Birth Rate Hits Historic Low

Despite extensive promotional campaigns encouraging larger families, public appeals from officials and Russian President Vladimir Putin and restrictions on abortion access, Russia has not succeeded in reversing its demographic decline.

Data from the first quarter of 2025 reveals that births decreased by 4% year-on-year, with only 288,800 recorded.

Hmm...I wonder why no one wants to have kids in a dictatorship where people keep falling out of windows, food prices are skyrocketing, men are slaughtered in numbers beyond anything Russia has experienced since the end of WWII, military spending is unsustainably high and harming other priorities (oof, feel ya there), and the worst one of all, a nonzero chance of running into Steven Seagal?

[Nobody]

I  thought a seagal was a mermaid. 🧜

[the_antithesis]

FAFO: American who joined Russia, signed up for military service, then lied to and sent to the frontlines was killed at the frontlines

Well, at least he wasn't woke.