Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Updates:

Antonov An-24 crashes in Russia, killing all 48 on board.

Chechen puppet leader Kadyrov almost drowns at Turkist resort.  Kadyrov has had a lot of speculation about his health since just before the 2022 invasion.  He pretty famously attempted to prove that he's in great shape by filming himself very slowly "running" down a trail.  There was even an incident where he was at the hospital for a while, allegedly just to visit someone else (press X to doubt).  He tried to resign earlier this year and set his son up as the new puppet, but Putin reportedly refused.  Hereditary rule, what could go wrong?  *smashcut of the entirety of Tsarist rule*

Ukraine strikes explosives factory in Russia (Nevinnomyssk Azot plant, to be specific, since this sort of thing happens so frequently I need to be specific to not confuse them)

Germany to supply Ukraine with its 8th IRIS-T air defense system

But it's not all good news, Ukraine has experienced widespread Starlink outages, along with the rest of the world, apparently due to some sort of software problem.  All the more reason not to put all your eggs in the nazi-salute basket.

[Hydra009]

As for the active fighting:

The Defense Forces of Ukraine have liberated Kindrativka in the Sumy region, - DeepState.

The assault was carried out by the 225th Assault Infantry Battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is the second village liberated by the forces of this regiment in the Sumy region; previously, Andreevka was liberated.

DeepState reports huge losses in Russian units, namely:

▪️ in the 40th Marine Brigade;
▪️ in the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet (Putin's favorite brigade, which lost its entire command staff during a Ukrainian strike on the command post in Korenovo on July 3, including the deputy commander of the Russian Navy, Major General Mikhail Gudkov);

▪️ in the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Battalion, where one of the battalion commanders was also eliminated.

For a long time, the occupiers were surrounded; they were driven out thanks to the unique tactics of the 225th Assault Infantry Battalion, which is one of the most effective assault units within the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

[ferdmonger]

I just wish we had a coherent president that didn't change his mind every week as to what the hell he's doing for/against Ukraine.  Our foreign policy is madness.

[Nobody]

Well, [f]King Trump has 3 1/2 years or so to get it right. I'm sure he'll figure it out. 🫩

[ferdmonger]

Trump can't figure his way out of a wet fucking paper bag.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian and Belorussian hackers launch massive cyberattack on Russian airline Aeroflot, halting flights entirely

The Kremlin said the situation was worrying

The Kremlin, which normally downplays everything, is worried.  No, they're terrified.

According to Telegram, the hackers first gained access to the network over a year ago, meticulously recorded flight logs and other information and set the stage for major sabotage.  In addition to rendering the network unusable and crippling its operations, cancelling flights (which probably saved lives, given the state of Russian aviation under sanctions), the hackers stole more than 20 TB of data, including corporate mail and internal documents, and then wiped 7,000 servers (some combination of physical and virtual servers).  So if and when Aeroflot gets back online, they have one hell of a mess to deal with.  We're looking at millions of USD worth of losses, perhaps more in the long term.

Russian companies and government websites have been subjected to sporadic hacking attacks, but Monday's was potentially the most damaging, because of the widespread disruption and the high profile of Aeroflot.
Former Aeroflot pilot and aviation expert Andrei Litvinov told Reuters: "This is a serious disaster. Okay, flight delays - you can survive that. But these are losses, huge losses for a state-owned company."
He added: "If all the correspondence, all the corporate data is exposed - this can have very long-term consequences ... First the drones, and now they are blowing up this situation from the inside."

Passengers vented their anger on social network VK, complaining about a lack of clear information from the airline.
Malena Ashi wrote: "I've been sitting at Volgograd airport since 3:30!!!!! The flight has been rescheduled for the third time!!!!!! This time it was rescheduled for approximately 14:50, and it was supposed to depart at 5:00!!!"
Another woman, Yulia Pakhota, posted: "The call centre is unavailable, the website is unavailable, the app is unavailable.
"How can I return a ticket or exchange it for the next flight, as Aeroflot suggests?"

Good question, Yulia.

[Nobody]

Well, perhaps Russia shouldn't have aggravated the Ukrainians?

[Hydra009]

Well, perhaps Russia shouldn't have aggravated the Ukrainians?

The Russians of all people complaining about flight delays when there's evidence that Russia shot down a Dutch flight, an Azerbaijani flight, and basically make Ukrainian flights impossible due to frequent Russian attacks.  Therefore, Ukrainian airlines can only operate outside of Ukrainian airspace, like Moldova or Poland.  Ukrainians have to first get there by car or rail in order to fly anywhere in the world.

[Hydra009]

Russian forces destroyed at pontoon crossing

A Ukrainian joke for you guys: "What Russians do when they see a river? They try to find a way how to be demolished."

Russians troops lost a significant amount of armored vehicles and artillery during their crossing over a pontoon at the Lyman sector.

On just one crossing, the enemy lost a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher system, as well as a 152-mm Msta-B howitzer along with its tractor.

Additionally, the pontoon saw the destruction of a BTR-82A, an all-terrain vehicle, a truck, and an infantry fighting vehicle or a truck that was towing the Msta-B.

Recently, the crew of a tank of the 54th Mechanized Brigade reportedly knocked out a Russian tank with heavy anti-drone protection – known as a "shed" – in close combat while repelling an assault near Siversk.

The Ukrainian tank ambushed the enemy vehicle, which was clad in a heavy anti-drone superstructure, and opened fire from less than 100 meters.

If I'm not mistaken, the Russians abandoned the turtle tank immediately after it was hit and retreated while Ukrainian fpv drones finished off the tank.  It was stupid of them to not have good intel and not have any sort of gameplan for stopping the Ukrainian tank.  The Ukrainians are getting very good at hard countering Russian brute force tactics.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian Forces Surround, Eliminate Hundreds of Russians in Sumy Region

Reportedly, one of the biggest victories for Ukraine in recent months, and that has some steep competition with Operation Spiderweb.

Ukrainian commando infantry defeated and wiped-out elements of three Russian combat brigades leading the incursion into Ukraine's Sumy region – killing or wounding hundreds of enemy and capturing prisoners, news and combat reports from both pro-Kremlin and pro-Kyiv sources said on Monday.

The two-week long battle contrasted sharply with the recent trend of relentless Russian advances ending with Moscow's motor rifle and elite marine units surrounded and pounded for days by Ukrainian FPV drones, howitzers, and rocket artillery.

Official Ukrainian sources, mainstream media, independent OSINT researchers, combat reports from Ukrainian units and Russian social media comment reviewed by Kyiv Post all confirmed a Ukrainian victory that eliminated an estimated 700 Russian troops and their equipment on the border region.

Milbloggers from both sides named Russia's 30th and 40th Motorized Rifle Regiments along with the elite 155th Naval Infantry Brigade as the units that had been defeated.

Oof, that explains why Russia's 155th - infamous for war crimes - keeps having to be reconstituted.  They get pounded again and again.

The Azerbaijan-based military analyst Agil Rustamzade account of the action on Sunday said that Ukrainian forces waited for poor weather before launcheing initial attacks on Jul 11-12, successfully breaking through Russian lines near Kindrativka.

A second tactical infiltration assault took place one or two days later allowing  Ukrainian lines to advance up four kilometers (2.5 miles) effectively isolated hundreds of Russian soldiers defending positions in and around the village in a pincer movement, Rustamzade wrote.

Russian counterattacks attempting to restore communications to their trapped forces were in progress by July 17-18 but failed to break through in the face of heavy Ukrainian artillery fire supported by FPV and bomber drone swarms.

For the next week Ukrainian ground forces pressed trapped Russian troops into a shrinking perimeter while bombarding it and hunting down exposed troops with drones. Russian resistance had effectively collapsed by Thursday with Kyiv's infantry overrunning the last Russian positions in Kindrativka on Friday, Ukrainian reports said.

Yep, that'll do it.  Advance under the cover of poor weather, break through Russian lines, isolate the Russians, then bombard/drone whatever's left to smithereens.

[Cassia]

That Ukranian tank presented a broadside to the Russian tank and got away with it. That Russian crew is useless.

[Hydra009]

That Ukranian tank presented a broadside to the Russian tank and got away with it. That Russian crew is useless.

Turtle tanks have basically no visibility and rely on some combination of mounted cameras, drones, or other vehicles to be their eyes and ears.  Apparently, this one had no support.

It's not unheard of for Russian vehicles to become separated from each other while under attack, as each one tries to preserve their own safety first and foremost, leading to situations where some of the convoy advances while some retreat.  Makes things easier for the Ukrainians.

[Hydra009]

Zelenskyy meets with Ukrainian parliament reps, calls for vote to restore independence of anti-corruption agencies

Government does something wildly unpopular, lots of people protest, government reverses course.   A healthy democracy and an attentive leadership.  I must say, I'm jealous.

[Hydra009]

I practically felt that hit at 1min10sec in.  Basically point blank and flanked.  What a situation!

I always wondered why Russian tank crews blunder so much - apparently, they have difficulty communicating.  Now I wonder if it's jamming or faulty equipment or something else.  Also, I wonder if they get any training at all or they just hop in and gun it.