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Humanities Section => Political/Government General Discussion => Topic started by: Cassia on January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

Title: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM
I guess he sees a divided, weak US and it's now or never...
From Wiki...
Ukraine has acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ukraine inherited "as many as 3,000" nuclear weapons when it became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991, making its nuclear arsenal the third-largest in the world. By 1994, Ukraine had agreed to dispose of all nuclear weapons within its territory, with the condition that its borders were respected, as part of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.

Ukraine is not a NATO member but has agreements and relations with NATO and the plan to eventually be a member has been off and on.

If Russia invades, are the US/EU/NATO obligated to defend?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on January 20, 2022, 02:45:21 PM
I´m sorry to say... especially because I Trudy fear the consequences and escalation of open war...
But I feel like the EU would be morally obligated to defend the Ukraine, if need be by war.
I don´t know if we would, but I think we should, if left no other option than letting Putin get away with it.
More likely, I think trade sanctions would be applied.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on January 20, 2022, 02:58:01 PM
Putin doesn't give a shit about trade sanctions because the EU needs Russian fossil fuels worse than Russia needs anything from the EU or the US. If they invade, which seems more likely than not to me, it is either go to war or cede the country to the Russians.  As far as I am concerned this has been inevitable since 2014 when they annexed Crimea, and nobody stopped them then.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on January 20, 2022, 03:13:56 PM
Yeah, I don´t think sanctions would be the appropriate response. But I do think it´s the most likely one.
Didn´t do anything real neither when in belarus loekasjenko performed his coup.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: aitm on January 20, 2022, 06:41:45 PM
IMHO, they rattle the sword and cages…looking to be paid off. We will never know the result should they silently retreat because they won’t. But if they do, they got paid.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on January 20, 2022, 11:03:33 PM
If Russia wants Ukraine, it's going to get it. Get real. What is anyone going to do about it?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 21, 2022, 01:42:13 AM
Biden has already told Ukraine and Russia that a "small incursion" into Ukraine will go unpunished, so my guess is that within the next few years Kyiv will be Russian occupied and within the decade as far as Lviv will belong to the Russians; this would also link Russia with occupied Moldova (Transnistra) and give them borders with most of their former vassals for future moves (or for influencing these more corrupt Comblock states' governments to be pro-Russia, like we've seen in Montenegro).

I don't believe the United States is going to do anything, and until the Russians are knocking on Germany's border the EU won't give a shit because those Eastern European states are there as a courtesy, not as key members like France/Germany; they are those friends that don't really fit in with the friend group that has known each other for decade, but one of the main people think they are cool so they let them tag along.


Politics aside, you also just can't negotiate with people like Putin, and unfortunately America's actions have given him plenty of ammunition to manipulate the Russian people into believing his propaganda, and as for America any mention of the fact we have provoked this as well get's swept under the rug and we believe the Russians are the big evil.

It's a shame, because the Ukraine is one of the most beautiful countries I've seen in Europe and looks really peaceful (as an American) and culturally historic. But I am also trying to view everything as pessimistically as I can so there is nothing to be disappointed about; I just don't see the United States doing anything which means the EU won't do anything. We will appease Putin until he is certain he has the leg-up on us and then watch him keep on pushing, all the while China laughs as it's two enemies weaken each other.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on January 21, 2022, 08:28:18 AM
We couldn't stop the Taliban.  Why would we think we could stop the Russians?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 22, 2022, 04:13:31 AM
I stand corrected; we are doing something, and it's worse than doing nothing.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/19/us-allies-ukraine-weapons-russia-invasion-527375

We are sending $200 million in anti-armor, ammunition, and equipment to the Russian border and have asked Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania to use them for exporting the equipment (I am presuming normally it would come into Germany or France and then be sent by train). This of course puts them at higher risk of pissing off Russia for helping us. The UK is doing the same thing, sending tons of arms and anti-tank equipment to the front. Oh, and we are going to be doing it third-party, because of course we are. Their excuse is literally, "Man, government is just too bureaucratic and it would take to long" and honestly... I have no reason to not believe that isn't the truth, but I still know that is going to mean less over-sight and more corrupt politicians and businessmen finding someway to make a profit off of it.

This equipment is not expected to stop Russia; we are already playing on the backfoot and defensively, trying to catch up. Rather it's being sent there to try and cause as much loss of Russian life as it can so that the people might be scared of us more than they are scared of, or respect, Putin. And if that doesn't work... well, maybe slow them down enough that we can mobilize the American powerhouse like we did in WW2.

Two problems; one is that nuclear weapons are not even required in the modern era, with just the right information you could cripple an entire country's infrastructure. You could even do it in such a way that a nuclear retaliation (if possible) would be necessary, just slow them down enough to finish your invasion before they can get their troops anywhere near, then call for peace before things escalate; they are set back, you win, and the world doesn't die in nuclear annihilation. That is the most... optimistic... possibility if war was to break out.

Secondly I just don't see violence working; I think if anything it will galvanize and piss off the Russian people more, with Putin taking a page out of Trump or Bush's playbooks and appealing as a "common man" and not an aristocrat to surge his popularity. This is his general go-to I've seen for the last... decade or however long it's been since he has been making big moves... to appeal to the military and their nationalist traditions (what a weird concept, never seen that before...).

All three leaders are intentionally provoking a fight, and all it takes is one bad bullet for shit to hit the fan; unfortunately we are lead by a borderline senile chimp and his troop of Congress, a Dollar General-brand Trump buffoon over in the UK with Boris, and the chest beating, but also smarter than expected, gorilla in Russia.

Who do you think wins that fight?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on January 22, 2022, 05:27:45 AM
To put it bluntly, nothing real will be done until/if they arrive to German border. All those countries are the new EU members as a courtesy. They do not matter. They are cushions.

[In the next 50 to 100 years, after taking Baltic, they will probably target down south. I'm thinking anything down from Georgia, Armenia, Turkey...'lol'. they have been trying to reach warm waters for 200 years. Especially if things get this fucked up beyond control around here, certain actions and moves will get legitimate and legitimate by the year, and it will be easier than thought.

The Russian culture is violent, oppressive and bigotic. Right Wing. Nothing alien to us. We already live in deep under that.]
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 22, 2022, 10:38:42 AM
Funny enough, Germany is taking the exact opposite approach of the U.S. and UK; while we are stream-lining the movement of arms to Ukraine... Germany is blocking their arms from being shipped to the border.


At least one power seems to be looking for a peaceful solution yet.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on January 22, 2022, 10:48:14 AM
Like Popeyes said, Europe's fossil fuel is coming from Russia.

Today, I have read that Russia has already started to cut the natural gas and the US is in talk (with Katar?), but I have no idea where I've read all that. :/
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on January 22, 2022, 11:03:10 AM
Quote from: drunkenshoe on January 22, 2022, 10:48:14 AMLike Popeyes said, Europe's fossil fuel is coming from Russia.
Yep.  Yet another reason to go renewable.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on January 22, 2022, 11:41:04 AM
The US pulled the ambassadors. *Shivers.

I think, I have been mutating. I'm constantly scared about several things, but because there is no place in me for more bad news and more scary stuff, it feels like the feeling of being scared is turning around my head and gets in from my nose in every 3 secs, reached to my stomach and then gets out from my mouth. That was my attempt at defining anxiety.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 23, 2022, 11:26:47 PM
Biden is now considering sending 1,000-5,000 troops to the Baltics, with a plan to increase that "ten-fold" if Russia does anything.

Meanwhile...


(https://i.imgur.com/cU2Ve0F.png)

(https://imgur.com/gallery/8viSACk)

Saigon/Kabul all over again?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Jason Harvestdancer on January 23, 2022, 11:28:45 PM
I don't actually care, as neither Russians nor Ukrainians pay taxes to the US government.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 23, 2022, 11:37:30 PM
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on January 23, 2022, 11:28:45 PM
I don't actually care, as neither Russians nor Ukrainians pay taxes to the US government.

Nuclear fallout doesn't respect country lines or tax codes. Generally doesn't care much for personal liberties, either.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on January 24, 2022, 12:21:19 AM
Quote from: Shiranu on January 23, 2022, 11:37:30 PM
Nuclear fallout doesn't respect country lines or tax codes. Generally doesn't care much for personal liberties, either.
It is 100 seconds to midnight
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on January 24, 2022, 12:48:24 AM
The interesting thing about missile silos is well of course they are targeted and would be destroyed....so you can't wait to launch them. They must be “launched on warning.” We will spend roughly $100 billion on our next generation of missiles (qty of 600) which will be ready to use around 2029.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 24, 2022, 07:22:28 AM
The UK has now pulled out it's government officials, citing "immediate military danger"; meanwhile they are sending warships into the Baltic along with Spain & Denmark IIRC, as well as France and Spain sending group troops to Bulgaria and I believe Denmark. It's still small-scale mobilization, but when the stakes are so high I don't think "small-scale" actually exists anymore.

On the 10% chance I give of this going south, I'm hoping I live close enough to a major military base to be vaporized immediately.

We just got James Webb out there, cant we do this shit some other time?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2022, 08:39:47 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 22, 2022, 11:03:10 AM
Yep.  Yet another reason to go renewable.

Oil and gas is used for a lot more than producing energy like plastics and more importantly pesticides and fertilizers. Without the latter most of us would starve pretty quickly, and as far as I know there are no real alternatives. It takes more shit to produce enough fertile ground to feed a person than a person can produce. We are going to need to need oil and gas for a long long time into the future.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on January 24, 2022, 09:15:02 AM
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2022, 08:39:47 AM
Oil and gas is used for a lot more than producing energy like plastics and more importantly pesticides and fertilizers. Without the latter most of us would starve pretty quickly, and as far as I know there are no real alternatives. It takes more shit to produce enough fertile ground to feed a person than a person can produce. We are going to need to need oil and gas for a long long time into the future.
Apologies.  What I said was that countries should pursue renewable energy sources for a number of reasons, including lessening their reliance on energy imports from adversarial/authoritarian countries.  What I clearly meant to say was that realistically, oil and gas can in the near future never be used again.  Not one drop.  Sorry for the confusion.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2022, 01:29:31 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 24, 2022, 09:15:02 AM
Apologies.  What I said was that countries should pursue renewable energy sources for a number of reasons, including lessening their reliance on energy imports from adversarial/authoritarian countries.  What I clearly meant to say was that realistically, oil and gas can in the near future never be used again.  Not one drop.  Sorry for the confusion.

I wasn't confused and didn't mean to infer you were saying we shouldn't use any more oil period. Just trying to point out that oil is used for more than energy and failing the invention of some new type of fertilizers we are going to need large amounts of the stuff for the foreseeable future even if we get all our energy from elsewhere.

The relevance to this thread is can Europe produce enough crude oil and gas to feed itself without Russian imports if they didn't need fossil fuels for energy production? I don't know the answer to this question.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 24, 2022, 01:36:44 PM
QuoteThe relevance to this thread is can Europe produce enough crude oil and gas to feed itself without Russian imports if they didn't need fossil fuels for energy production? I don't know the answer to this question.

Even with Scotland and Norway having some massive deposits, I just don't think Europe has the infrastructure to do that before there would be massive logistical problems.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Oil_and_petroleum_products_-_a_statistical_overview&oldid=315177#Production_of_crude_oil

In 2019 Europe hit a record low in crude oil production; 19.8 million tons. In that same time the EU imported 507.2 million tons and 135.8 million of that came from Russia.

So maybe the EU has healthy reserves in standby, but either way losing Russian oil would still be almost a quarter of their normal crude being lost, and there is no way the common folk don't suffer in that scenario.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2022, 01:45:21 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on January 24, 2022, 01:36:44 PM
Even with Scotland and Norway having some massive deposits, I just don't think Europe has the infrastructure to do that before there would be massive logistical problems.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Oil_and_petroleum_products_-_a_statistical_overview&oldid=315177#Production_of_crude_oil

In 2019 Europe hit a record low in crude oil production; 19.8 million tons. In that same time the EU imported 507.2 million tons and 135.8 million of that came from Russia.

So maybe the EU has healthy reserves in standby, but either way losing Russian oil would still be almost a quarter of their normal crude being lost, and there is no way the common folk don't suffer in that scenario.

But the question here is how much of that crude is used for energy production and how much for other necessary things like fertilizers and lubricants? is 20 million tons a year enough for those things?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 24, 2022, 01:45:59 PM
On the other side of the world, tensions with China/Taiwan and North Korea/literally everyone have not been all that great either.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/two-us-carriers-enter-schina-sea-counter-malign-influence-2022-01-24/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/two-us-carriers-enter-schina-sea-counter-malign-influence-2022-01-24/)

Lithuania just a few weeks ago signed a contract with Taiwan to establish semiconductor manufacturing there (heavily pissing off China), one of the main things that makes Taiwan so damned valuable to begin with. If Russia invaded the West and stopped that, and China takes Taiwan while we are distracted, that makes their stranglehold on that market so much stronger... and semiconductors are probably THE business to be in (besides maybe cannabis or opioid production) for the future.

Of course this is all speculation based on probably 2% of the total possible information these countries have access to... but I'm bored.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 24, 2022, 01:50:14 PM
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2022, 01:45:21 PM
But the question here is how much of that crude is used for energy production and how much for other necessary things like fertilizers and lubricants? is 20 million tons a year enough for those things?

From what I'm finding...

(https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/thumb/f/f0/Final_energy_consumption_of_petroleum_products%2C_EU%2C_1990-2019_%28million_tonnes_of_oil_equivalent%29_.png/800px-Final_energy_consumption_of_petroleum_products%2C_EU%2C_1990-2019_%28million_tonnes_of_oil_equivalent%29_.png)

If we take energy generation out of the equation it 100% should be enough, but I just cant see Europe being energy sufficient before a war would break out.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on January 24, 2022, 05:20:48 PM
No matter what, it is a good plan by Putin to further divide the US after Trump got played and then the ruskie disinformation campaign. And if you like Trump you just might sort of like Putin as well. Trump is saying this wouldn't have happened if he was president. Uh....Crimea was the start, traitor moron.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 24, 2022, 06:39:09 PM
Quote from: Cassia on January 24, 2022, 05:20:48 PM
No matter what, it is a good plan by Putin to further divide the US after Trump got played and then the ruskie disinformation campaign. And if you like Trump you just might sort of like Putin as well. Trump is saying this wouldn't have happened if he was president. Uh....Crimea was the start, traitor moron.

Crimea was under Obama to be fair (with Joe Biden at the time thinking it was a massive failure on our part), but it certainly didn't improve under Trump.

I think your average GOP voter wouldn't mind Putin if he just had an American flag next to him, and certainly your average GOP Congressman seems to like him, like those 6...8?... or so who went to visit Russia on the 4th of July.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Jason Harvestdancer on January 25, 2022, 10:08:06 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on January 23, 2022, 11:37:30 PM
Nuclear fallout doesn't respect country lines or tax codes. Generally doesn't care much for personal liberties, either.
Which one are you expecting to nuke the other in a possible ware between Russia and Ukraine?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on January 25, 2022, 10:37:47 PM
Quote from: Cassia on January 24, 2022, 05:20:48 PMNo matter what, it is a good plan by Putin to further divide the US after Trump got played and then the ruskie disinformation campaign. And if you like Trump you just might sort of like Putin as well. Trump is saying this wouldn't have happened if he was president. Uh....Crimea was the start, traitor moron.
To be honest, it's pretty odd that this didn't happen under Trump.  That would have been a golden opportunity for Putin, with its biggest adversary in disarray.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 26, 2022, 01:30:54 AM
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on January 25, 2022, 10:08:06 PM
Which one are you expecting to nuke the other in a possible ware between Russia and Ukraine?

Russia and Ukraine are already at war; have been for about 8 years now.

"I don't care" doesn't change reality. Ukraine is a partner with NATO and thus has a tentative alliance with it... and until the United States pulls out of NATO we thus have an obligation to uphold those treaties. If conflict breaks out between NATO and Russia (which always remains a possibility when you have two armed forces staring each other in the eye), then nuclear warfare is not particularly a slim possibility; more likely would be a new age of cyberwarfare... which also doesn't respect who you pay taxes to or your personal freedom unless you live off the grid (which since your posting here likely isn't the case).
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Blackleaf on January 26, 2022, 07:34:14 PM
So the US has built up a defense and is prepared for the event of war. This is actually kind of scary. What is Putin hoping to accomplish here? If the US and Russia are forced to go at it, it can't end well. Maybe we'll both agree not to resort to nuclear weapons, but what if one side decides to do a pre-emptive strike on the other out of paranoia?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on January 26, 2022, 08:33:48 PM
Quote from: Blackleaf on January 26, 2022, 07:34:14 PMWhat is Putin hoping to accomplish here?
Complete control over Ukraine seems likely.  I forgot where I read it, but essentially, Putin wants to get the Soviet bloc back together.  At the very least, keep these countries under the Russian sphere of influence, peacefully (as Belarus can attest) or through military force (as Georgia can attest (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Georgia)).  Ukraine joining NATO would certainly be a huge setback to that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 26, 2022, 09:06:06 PM
QuoteI forgot where I read it, but essentially, Putin wants to get the Soviet bloc back together.

Yeah, I've seen that before as well and it honestly makes sense to me; imagine the legacy of an ex-KGB agent brining the Soviet Union back to it's former glory? He would be immortalized, and when you look at photoshoots of him and his behavior at home... he really seems to be a deeply narcissistic man obsessed with his image. Hell, he might even surpass Stalin and Lenin if he achieved that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on January 26, 2022, 09:30:20 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on January 26, 2022, 09:06:06 PM
Yeah, I've seen that before as well and it honestly makes sense to me; imagine the legacy of an ex-KGB agent brining the Soviet Union back to it's former glory? He would be immortalized, and when you look at photoshoots of him and his behavior at home... he really seems to be a deeply narcissistic man obsessed with his image. Hell, he might even surpass Stalin and Lenin if he achieved that.
I always thought the Western allies missed an opportunity to get with Russia during the first few years after the USSR crumbled.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on January 27, 2022, 11:34:39 AM
Quote from: Cassia on January 26, 2022, 09:30:20 PMI always thought the Western allies missed an opportunity to get with Russia during the first few years after the USSR crumbled.
Yeltsin.  On one hand, he helped make sure the USSR's collapse was as painless as possible and helped Russia transition towards democracy.  On the other hand, he oversaw the rise of the oligarchs, corruption exploded, took Russia on a warpath that it has yet to stray from (not just externally, but internally, as in the Black October), and hand-picked Putin.  Definitely set the stage for the rapid deterioration of Russia's nascent democracy into the oligarchy/strongman system they have today.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Jason Harvestdancer on January 27, 2022, 08:45:40 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on January 26, 2022, 01:30:54 AM
Russia and Ukraine are already at war; have been for about 8 years now.

Well then, that increases the relevance of my question, as it does from "if they go to war" to "they are at war".  Which one are you expecting to nuke the other?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on January 27, 2022, 08:55:28 PM
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on January 27, 2022, 08:45:40 PM
Well then, that increases the relevance of my question, as it does from "if they go to war" to "they are at war".  Which one are you expecting to nuke the other?
Every war plan is obsolete the minute the war starts. A missile wanders off at hits a NATO aircraft and we go to DEFCON 1.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on January 27, 2022, 10:08:23 PM
Quote from: Cassia on January 27, 2022, 08:55:28 PMEvery war plan is obsolete the minute the war starts. A missile wanders off at hits a NATO aircraft and we go to DEFCON 1.
Hey now, there's no way that the Russian military would possibly engage anyone but their primary target.  Not a dutch passenger plane full of civilians (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17), not Turkish forces (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Russian_Air_Force_Al-Bab_incident), and definitely not US forces (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-leaked-audio-humiliating-defeat-by-us-forces-2018-2).  They're laser-focused and totally professional and there's no way they could possibly cause a serious international incident and potentially trigger a serious military confrontation.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on January 27, 2022, 11:44:42 PM
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on January 27, 2022, 08:45:40 PM
Well then, that increases the relevance of my question, as it does from "if they go to war" to "they are at war".  Which one are you expecting to nuke the other?

Neither, thought you could read past one line.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Jason Harvestdancer on January 28, 2022, 10:29:17 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on January 27, 2022, 11:44:42 PM
Neither, thought you could read past one line.

In post # 16, you replied to my statement about how this isn't our concern by saying nuclear fallout doesn't care about national boundaries.  You were warning that we have to get involved because otherwise there might be nuclear fallout.

If we don't get involved in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which country are you expecting to nuke which other country?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on January 28, 2022, 11:59:30 PM
Jason, literally everyone else figured out that there's a real possibility of escalation and NATO forces (of which several have nukes) could get into it with Russia, which also has nukes.  I pieced that together within a couple seconds of reading Shiranu's post.  Days later, I'm having to bluntly point this out to you so that you finally understand.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on January 29, 2022, 10:41:06 AM
I didn't know what Defcon is. So it says 9/11, for 3 days Defcon 3, 2 stanby. Nuclear hit on allies, Defcon 1 I guess. I wonder what's alien invasion.  :welcome: :p
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on January 29, 2022, 11:26:30 AM
Quote from: drunkenshoe on January 29, 2022, 10:41:06 AM
I didn't know what Defcon is. So it says 9/11, for 3 days Defcon 3, 2 stanby. Nuclear hit on allies, Defcon 1 I guess. I wonder what's alien invasion.  :welcome: :p
Defcon 1/2.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 02, 2022, 01:19:27 PM
We're actually trying to start this...

QuoteSeveral thousand troops will be sent to NATO member nations in Eastern Europe to reassure allies anxious over tensions surrounding Ukraine. The U.S. has said it will not deploy troops to Ukraine in the event of conflict there.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/02/world/ukraine-russia-news (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/02/world/ukraine-russia-news)


On the bright side, Russia actually seems to be offering some reasonable peaceful solutions... we just keep on turning them down. Not perfect for sure, but better than more troops on the border.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 02, 2022, 02:13:21 PM
 If Russia and their murderer-in-charge do not overwhelm Ukraine right away, they could be in for a long war they really can't afford. US strategy should be to indirectly support all resistance. He seems to be reenacting the Hitler playbook to a tee in an effort to reassemble a new Russian union.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 02, 2022, 03:16:53 PM
Quote from: Cassia on February 02, 2022, 02:13:21 PM
If Russia and their murderer-in-charge do not overwhelm Ukraine right away, they could be in for a long war they really can't afford. US strategy should be to indirectly support all resistance. He seems to be reenacting the Hitler playbook to a tee in an effort to reassemble a new Russian union.

I don't mind the idea of us providing arms and supplies, though I fear at best we recreate Afghanistan... some of the rebel groups fighting in Donbas for Ukraine have some very disturbing neo-Nazi affiliations and we've been supporting them. No good saving Ukraine from Putin just to condemn them to a far-right Neo-Nazi state.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 02, 2022, 04:07:41 PM
Neo-Nazis are everywhere now. They demonstrated against Jews in Orlando just this week. If Putin does take Ukraine, he will destroy their democracy and set up a puppet dictator. He will not stop with that. And then like clockwork an emboldened China will follow suit.

Mussolini, Hitler, Putin, Pol Pot, Stalin, Kim Il, and Trump are the same sort of authoritarian, megalomaniac kings. They admire each other. Doesn't matter if they are supposed to be "left" or "right". They invoke that tribal bullshit and if allowed they push towards death and destruction every time.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 02, 2022, 06:04:24 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/YZXxXVnl.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 05, 2022, 06:29:46 PM
Unity march in Ukraine.....but does Putin care?
(https://www.reuters.com/resizer/ivD6rMSzTFaZSZgeL6J-b_BfH5Y=/960x0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/WRLULDKIXJITHO7HCJXNRLUEJU.jpg)
(https://www.reuters.com/resizer/TAclL7Hn-BKv2g6yHdAmE8V2nLM=/1920x0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/BXRM6QXQDZPFZLCOASVVFRKJA4.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on February 06, 2022, 07:29:08 AM
Putin: we will make unity.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on February 06, 2022, 12:28:10 PM
To be honest, my dad came home from Russia  Friday night. Kind of glad. I don´t think it was dangerous, but still I feel more at ease.

He was there for a business trip.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 06, 2022, 01:12:36 PM
I read that the fields of Ukraine are expected to be frozen enough sometime around mid-February so that Russian heavy tanks will have an easy invasion traverse. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 10, 2022, 11:09:54 PM
Heads up; about 30 minutes - 1 hour ago, Biden warned all Americans to evacuate Ukraine immediately, and that things could, "get crazy quickly" after Berlin talks earlier today broke down.

That... sounds lovely.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/things-could-go-crazy-quickly-biden-warns-on-ukraine-as-talks-in-berlin-fail?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1644551916
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Jason Harvestdancer on February 11, 2022, 08:25:14 PM
Quote from: Cassia on February 02, 2022, 04:07:41 PM
Neo-Nazis are everywhere now. They demonstrated against Jews in Orlando just this week. If Putin does take Ukraine, he will destroy their democracy and set up a puppet dictator. He will not stop with that. And then like clockwork an emboldened China will follow suit.

So the Russians would be acting like the US did a few years ago in Ukraine.  Silly Russians, don't they know only the US can interfere in other countries.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 11, 2022, 08:44:25 PM
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on February 11, 2022, 08:25:14 PM
So the Russians would be acting like the US did a few years ago in Ukraine.  Silly Russians, don't they know only the US can interfere in other countries.
?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Jason Harvestdancer on February 11, 2022, 10:13:39 PM
The 2004 Orange Revolution.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 12, 2022, 10:50:41 AM
I've just read in some local tweet that Ukraine has started firing in Garlovka and Donetsk. Any news over there?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 12, 2022, 05:43:31 PM
If Putin invades on Superbowl Sunday, will Russia win the game? Would the US even notice? Russia's navy is on the move now too.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 13, 2022, 08:53:53 AM
I've never seen any war as so much enthusiastically and oddly scheduled as this one. Now, the Russian invasion is imminent, US pulling out.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/02/12/us-soldiers-ukraine-pulling-out-amid-warnings-of-imminent-russian-invasion.html


Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 20, 2022, 12:22:31 PM
U.S. has intel that Russian commanders have orders to proceed with Ukraine invasion

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-us-intelligence-orders/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=153051694
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 21, 2022, 03:19:00 PM
Putin is now declaring Ukraine a "historic part of Russia" and recognizes the independence of the "Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk", 190k troops now on the border and reports of military equipment seen within Ukrainian borders.

Even Putin's generals looked terrified of him, so here is to hoping there are still some sane heads within his cabinet.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden/russia-will-recognize-two-regions-in-ukraine-a-possible-prelude-to-invasion?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 21, 2022, 04:10:27 PM
Yeah, I saw it. Apparently, he was also talking about Russians building Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 21, 2022, 04:42:18 PM
Quote from: drunkenshoe on February 21, 2022, 04:10:27 PM
Yeah, I saw it. Apparently, he was also talking about Russians building Ukraine.

Kinda like the European settlers "built" America... just ignore what we tore down first.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 22, 2022, 12:54:00 AM
Ukarine is in the top ten wheat producing countries, selling it to many places. E: To us for example. If this goes long and we cannot buy it from anyone else, the surviving population will be very slim and fashionable. *I'm going slightly maaad. I'm going slightly maaad. It's finally happened. I'm slightly maaad.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 22, 2022, 07:51:23 AM
Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine last night.

So the answer to the question is a resounding yes.  Now the only things left to figure out are how much of Ukraine he'll take over, how many lives will be lost, and what repercussions Putin will face, if any.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on February 22, 2022, 10:18:42 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 22, 2022, 07:51:23 AM
Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine last night.

So the answer to the question is a resounding yes.  Now the only things left to figure out are how much of Ukraine he'll take over, how many lives will be lost, and what repercussions Putin will face, if any.

Actually the big question is China going to try to take advantage of the situation and take over Taiwan?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 22, 2022, 02:51:31 PM
I wanna thank Trump for pumping-up that little Putin douchebag. Of course, the wave of Nationalism encourages every Hitler wanna-be.

I think the sanctions will be useless. We could confiscate and lock-up every penny and all property owned by every wealthy Russian.

This stupid land-grab by Putin could end up ultimately turning the planet into glass. Frankly I am surprised we haven't already.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 22, 2022, 06:19:04 PM
For a good breakdown on all the crazy stuff that happened yesterday that can get lost in the noise, the last segment on Ukraine does a good job at recapping and reminding some of the serious things.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKNXF2IYHI8
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 22, 2022, 10:54:52 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofijY6M-OA8

A rebuke of expansionist nationalism as practiced by Russia and Russian operatives within sovereign countries calling for "unity" with Russia
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 23, 2022, 11:13:57 AM
Updates:

Russia has list of Ukrainians it plans on killing or sending to camps (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-plans-target-dissidents-ukraine-killed-sent-camps-us-says-rcna17031)

QuoteEarlier, Crocker said in the letter that the U.S. believes Russia would “likely target those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.”

The document warns of large-scale "human rights violations and abuses" and says protesters would also be met with unjust force.

Ukraine starts drafting its reservists (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-starts-drafting-reservists-aged-18-60-after-presidents-order-2022-02-23/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 23, 2022, 01:51:09 PM
I can always pull up the RT Channel (was Russia Today and changed its name just like Kentucky Fried) on my satellite receiver for some Putin propaganda.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 23, 2022, 10:42:44 PM
My heart hurts, for now there are reports of explosions in Kyiv; a streamer I really respect and a classmate from a decade ago both live there, and I hate the thought of what life must be like for them now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 23, 2022, 10:52:17 PM
More than just reports; caught on camera, explosions in Kyiv.

I hope the people I know have been able to flee the country, I'm scared of how they will be treated by the Russian occupiers :(.


Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 23, 2022, 11:42:25 PM
Funny how half the world won't wear a medical mask if a government asks them to but invading and murdering on their behalf is just ok...we're all in.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: GSOgymrat on February 24, 2022, 01:09:37 AM
Quote from: Cassia on February 23, 2022, 11:42:25 PM
Funny how half the world won't wear a medical mask if a government asks them to but invading and murdering on their behalf is just ok...we're all in.

Based on the response to the pandemic and the current social and political climate, I wonder if Americans would put aside their differences and come together to defend the United States even if there was a direct attack on US soil.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on February 24, 2022, 08:05:16 AM
The invasion is underway, but there is no James Earl Jones announcing the CNN daily (hourly) report the way he did during the invasion of Iraq.  I guess this invasion must not be as much fun as when we pounded Iraq into the ground.  Funny! Absent are the hours of explosions and a night sky filled with anti aircraft fire brought to your home via television with a breathless Wolf Blitzer telling you not to leave the room during brief commercial breaks.  America doesn't seem up for this one, although it will certainly be as bloody and destructive.  There are other parallels too.  One is that both invasions are/were based on lies.  War is an odd endeavor.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 24, 2022, 09:34:09 AM
Quote from: SGOS on February 24, 2022, 08:05:16 AM
The invasion is underway, but there is no James Earl Jones announcing the CNN daily (hourly) report the way he did during the invasion of Iraq.  I guess this invasion must not be as much fun as when we pounded Iraq into the ground.  Funny! Absent are the hours of explosions and a night sky filled with anti aircraft fire brought to your home via television with a breathless Wolf Blitzer telling you not to leave the room during brief commercial breaks.  America doesn't seem up for this one, although it will certainly be as bloody and destructive.  There are other parallels too.  One is that both invasions are/were based on lies.  War is an odd endeavor.
Shock and Awe didn't really subdue Iraqi insurgents for long. I guess we shall see how committed the bulk of Ukrainians are to having their own country. Poland is about to get some evacuees fleeing ahead of the violence.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 24, 2022, 09:43:03 AM
Quote from: GSOgymrat on February 24, 2022, 01:09:37 AM
Based on the response to the pandemic and the current social and political climate, I wonder if Americans would put aside their differences and come together to defend the United States even if there was a direct attack on US soil.
I would think at least 70% would unite. Seems maybe 20% have just mentally gone off into some fictional existence where JFK, Trump, Elvis and Putin are saving the children from Clintons and another 10% just don't care about anything really.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 24, 2022, 09:50:57 AM
Quote from: GSOgymrat on February 24, 2022, 01:09:37 AM
Based on the response to the pandemic and the current social and political climate, I wonder if Americans would put aside their differences and come together to defend the United States even if there was a direct attack on US soil.
I'll give you three guesses. (https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-other-top-conservatives-rally-to-putins-side-over-ukraine-threat-2022-2)

Imagine simping for dictators around the world and calling yourself a defender of freedom and democracy.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 24, 2022, 10:12:29 AM
Russia has declared war on Ukraine (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/23/russia-ukraine-invasion-crisis-update/6906567001/)

There are now major military clashes as well as deliberate attacks on civilians by Russian forces.  There have also been rocket attacks launched from Belarus, so it's pretty obvious which axis of the conflict they're on.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: viocjit on February 24, 2022, 12:23:08 PM
I'd like to know a thing I can't know for the moment because this information isn't public and will maybe be never published or after my death (I'm 28 years old. If the information is released in 100 years or more I would be dead accorded to medical knowledge of nowadays).

This thing is the next. The president of Russian Federation initially wanted to put Ukraine under pressure (When Russians troops were around the border between the two states) or he did prepared invasion for month or years ?

If Russia invades fully the Ukrainian territory.
Does it means Putin will attack a country member of European Union or / and a NATO member ?

If the President of Russia attack an EU country.
What will do others members of this union ? In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
EU countries have the legal obligation to assist each others in case of an attack.

If the Russian President choose to attack a state member of NATO. In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
Think about article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It can be used. It can maybe finish in a nuclear war.
War isn't fun , war is devastating for all parties involved , war with two sides who have an access to nuclear weapons is terrifying if a faction or both choose to use these.

Full extract of article 5 in English :
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security"


Link to the treaty on official NATO website : https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
Text is available in 27 languages (Some of them aren't languages of NATO members. The language of some members isn't available) : Albanian , Armenian , Croatian , Czech , Danish , Dutch , English , Estonian , French , Georgian , German , Greek , Hebrew , Hungarian , Icelandic , Italian , Latvian , Lithuanian , Norwegian , Polish , Portuguese , Russian , Slovenian , Spanish , Turkish , Ukrainian.

Full extract of article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations (There are a reference to it in article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty) :
"Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security."

Link to the charter on official UN website (Text available in the six official languages of UN that are Arabic , Chinese , English , French , Russian , Spanish) : https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 24, 2022, 12:43:53 PM
Quote from: viocjit on February 24, 2022, 12:23:08 PMIf Russia invades fully the Ukrainian territory.
Does it means Putin will attack a country member of European Union or / and a NATO member ?
Unknown.  What we do know is that Russia will invade a country without provocation if the country is militarily weaker and is utterly undeterred by sanctions or global opinion.

As long as Putin breathes, Russia is a security threat to any eastern european country and possibly beyond.  Naturally, any country on the chopping block will want to band together with as many other countries as possible to negate Russia's military superiority to avoid invasion, but even that might not be enough.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on February 24, 2022, 03:22:37 PM
Fuck putin.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 24, 2022, 09:51:49 PM
Russian invaders temporarily seized control of an airport but were encircled and destroyed by Ukrainian forces:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport) 

Russian invaders took control of Chernobyl, reportedly with a large increase in local radiation (https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-invasion-6f4b2da3c9623b7f1bf8f250a73a1bb5).  They possibly have taken staff (civilians) hostage:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chernobyl (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chernobyl)
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-24-22-intl/h_e1c58950cd78614bc578a4c3a6515a2c (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-24-22-intl/h_e1c58950cd78614bc578a4c3a6515a2c)

Russian invaders took control of Snake Island, killing all 13 Ukrainian border guards.  The guards will be awarded Hero of Ukraine posthumously.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Snake_Island (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Snake_Island)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 24, 2022, 10:08:39 PM
QuoteRussian invaders took control of Snake Island, killing all 13 Ukrainian border guards.  The guards will be awarded Hero of Ukraine posthumously.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Snake_Island

иди на Ñ...уй - "Fuck off.", the message they gave to the Russians that told them to standdown.

Respect, if you have to die at least go out with a middle finger.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 25, 2022, 01:47:01 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/n8rs8Sb.jpeg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 10:06:04 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/rWTjSi1l.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: aitm on February 25, 2022, 12:35:57 PM
Yes.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 25, 2022, 12:53:53 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 10:06:04 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/rWTjSi1l.jpg)

I mean this in the most complementary way... Ukrainians are some absolute mad lads.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 25, 2022, 03:28:04 PM
I have gleaned from history that dictators have a key disadvantage. Their yes men and women rarely say what they really think out of fear of being labelled a dissident or traitor. The result is poor info and decisions. Who wants to tell Hitler the truth, that his favorite plan is stupid? Especially when the last one that was truthful is suddenly gone.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 08:35:45 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on February 25, 2022, 12:53:53 PM
I mean this in the most complementary way... Ukrainians are some absolute mad lads.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/t1eoio/ukrainian_soldier_sends_message_to_russian/

Definitely not the kind of people to mess with.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 25, 2022, 09:04:35 PM
Siege of Kiev has begun, with Russian armor now reported in the city and explosions and light arms lighting up the suburbs The longer they can hold out, the longer Russian morale, which is already seemingly low, can drop.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 09:15:15 PM
Ukraine reportedly shot down Russian military transport plane (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-united-nations-kyiv-6ccba0905f1871992b93712d3585f548)  Filled with paratroopers and about 40km south of Kyiv.  Now it's just a mass grave.

Fun fact:  it seats about 126 paratroopers
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 25, 2022, 09:16:55 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 09:15:15 PM
Ukraine reportedly shot down Russian military transport plane (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-united-nations-kyiv-6ccba0905f1871992b93712d3585f548)  Filled with paratroopers and just 40km south of Kyiv.  Now it's just a mass grave.

Fun fact:  it seats about 126 paratroopers

Yep, second one of the Il-76s shot down. Eyeballed it carried a hundred, so good to know got some bonus kills as well. That should be about 300 dead paratroopers at least now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 25, 2022, 09:35:15 PM
Ukranian president said they managed to repeal that latest attack.

https://twitter.com/UkranianNewsNow/status/1497396903884984321
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 25, 2022, 10:59:33 PM
And there went any optimism and hope I had; Putin has begun mobilizing fucking Chechnyan barbarians to come do the dirty work; and whereas the Russians have seemingly been trying to limit damage (neither wanting to be there nor viewing Ukraine as the enemy)... I don't expect those fucking fleas to share that same mindset.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1497183703935688733
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 25, 2022, 11:04:41 PM
In reality, Ukraine has little strategic value to the EU and US, but Putin sees it as a strategic neutral buffer. If Russian folks see a thriving democratic and free Ukraine next door (and that was starting to happen) that is pretty bad for Putin. He probably wants to knock them down hard more than anything else. A long war would be a disaster for Russia.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 11:36:04 PM
Quote from: Cassia on February 25, 2022, 11:04:41 PMIn reality, Ukraine has little strategic value to the EU and US, but Putin sees it as a strategic neutral buffer.
Lebensraum

QuoteIf Russian folks see a thriving democratic and free Ukraine next door (and that was starting to happen) that is pretty bad for Putin. He probably wants to knock them down hard more than anything else. A long war would be a disaster for Russia.
Exactly.  It would undermine his regime.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 11:39:05 PM
NATO has activated its response force for the first time ever (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/595876-nato-activates-response-force-for-first-time-in-history)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 02:04:12 AM
Two Russian MPs are calling for an immediate end to the war, and judging by Putin's demeanor and speech... I think he might actually be starting to get nervous that it's not going as smoothly as hoped and that those around him are growing tired of his excuses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8kkeztq70c
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 02:07:32 AM
Yeah, Ukraine has a strategic value, but I don't think Putin; the Russian military strategy has ever seen Ukraine special as a region in some sophisticated development that would be a threat if advanced, rather just breaking a first step. (If developing democracy was any power to stop something, the country I live in wouldn't be in this position right now. Seriously, there is simple a 50 years between us now and 20 years ago.) Invasion of Ukraine is going to make it all clear for Russia to move on or not. They knew there wouldn't be a unified military resistance, and so we can be sure there won't be when going South. In the end everything is discussed from EU or US- Western angle, which looks normal because they are the powers with the military will and power to stop it if they do. In the end, NATO is built against them.

So why not just take Ukraine and start to move on to Georgia and go on from there down to Turkiye, Iran, Afghanistan, China, Mongolia... Any kind of action of moving to West would be the very last phase, wouldn't it? They can always go on sending 'Islamic' terrorists into central Europe anyway.

The worst case scenario, until they reach Turkiye (Bosphorus is a global strategy point), Iran and China... who is really going to do what? That process would also push everyone to take clear sides. I mean real, hard military sides, not political, economical "I'm gonna show you" stuff. Russia has never relied on those in peace time anyway.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 02:13:07 AM
Quote from: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 02:04:12 AM
Two Russian MPs are calling for an immediate end to the war, and judging by Putin's demeanor and speech... I think he might actually be starting to get nervous that it's not going as smoothly as hoped and that those around him are growing tired of his excuses.

Can you bottle that optimism and send it to me? Until he really fails on the ground, don't you think trying to interpret the daily demeanor of a genocidal psychopath is a bit wishful thinking?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 26, 2022, 09:48:21 AM
My sweetheart still thinks the US and NATO missed an opportunity when a younger Putin was asking about joining NATO. We decided to punish and largely ignore Russia instead. Ukraine is the slow-motion trainwreck of a result. And yeah, depending how it plays out there are other nearby pebbles in Putin's boots.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 11:11:14 AM
Quote from: Cassia on February 26, 2022, 09:48:21 AM
My sweetheart still thinks the US and NATO missed an opportunity when a younger Putin was asking about joining NATO. We decided to punish and largely ignore Russia instead. Ukraine is the slow-motion trainwreck of a result. And yeah, depending how it plays out there are other nearby pebbles in Putin's boots.

(Lol, I like it when you do this.) Yeah, similar talk goes down with friends and all. Some blames the US, some says it was a matter of time, some claims bad policies kind of made Putin right by 'cornering' him, and there are tons of despicable shitbags in social media I don't want to even talk about. I wish we could send them to Putin.

Anyway, somebody said something like that Russia wanted to be 'invited' into Nato with a special place (considering its military power?) rather than joining as a regular member, but then they thought otherwise because obviously it wouldn't happen. So it was supposed to be just a policy for a while. I don't know and I don't care either.

Russia wouldn't be in a powerful place like this if it was really cornered. Honestly, this traditional comeback to every event in the world with "America's doing!" has gone stale baack when I was in my early 20s. Yeah, Uncle Sam is the biggest genocidal psychopath, but so all the fucking countries in the region. They just cannot afford to do it in that scale and that successful. Everything's America's doing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 26, 2022, 11:46:04 AM
Quote from: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 11:11:14 AM
(Lol, I like it when you do this.) Yeah, similar talk goes down with friends and all. Some blames the US, some says it was a matter of time, some claims bad policies kind of made Putin right by 'cornering' him, and there are tons of despicable shitbags in social media I don't want to even talk about. I wish we could send them to Putin.

Anyway, somebody said something like that Russia wanted to be 'invited' into Nato with a special place (considering its military power?) rather than joining as a regular member, but then they thought otherwise because obviously it wouldn't happen. So it was supposed to be just a policy for a while. I don't know and I don't care either.

Russia wouldn't be in a powerful place like this if it was really cornered. Honestly, this traditional comeback to every event in the world with "America's doing!" has gone stale baack when I was in my early 20s. Yeah, Uncle Sam is the biggest genocidal psychopath, but so all the fucking countries in the region. They just cannot afford to do it in that scale and that successful. Everything's America's doing.
I agree with him that dealing with the US cannot be easy. We go from Bush to Obama to Trump. That is like three different countries right there. And also, we get tired of our "commitments" to freedom and just leave. We are split right down the middle on ideology and have insurrection and 2nd rate social services. I hate to say it, but this century feels like a big slide down for the US so far, unless we get some smart effective leadership soon..
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 11:52:25 AM
Quote from: Cassia on February 26, 2022, 11:46:04 AM
I agree with him that dealing with the US cannot be easy. We go from Bush to Obama to Trump. That is like three different countries right there. And also, we get tired of our "commitments" to freedom and just leave. We are split right down the middle on ideology and have insurrection and 2nd rate social services. I hate to say it, but this century feels like a big slide down for the US so far, unless we get some smart effective leadership soon..

Yeah, I get it. More than I can express. I hope it will turn around at some point. You have the resources.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 11:56:46 AM
Guys, you don't mind me. I'm exhausted, can't sleep. The people, the media here is so disgusting, I swear I wish the bastard would throw a few around here at certain targets. And I'm sick of being blamed of supporting the American Empire. Yes because the morons think their country is something else. You know, something nonemperial ffs.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 12:05:45 PM
What if he really gets a painfully embarrassing failure, and attempts on mass killing?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PickelledEggs on February 26, 2022, 03:18:25 PM
idk if it's too late to answer this, but yes... putin will invade ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on February 26, 2022, 03:48:59 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-miscalculation/amp/

Hopeful writing. Not unbiased. Not wholly comforting.
Yet Hopeful. Which is something, at least.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 04:41:51 PM
Russia bans words ‘invasion’ and ‘assault’ in media, warns several outlets

https://theworldnews.net/il-news/russia-bans-words-invasion-and-assault-in-media-warns-several-outlets
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 04:49:19 PM
Quote from: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 02:13:07 AM
Can you bottle that optimism and send it to me? Until he really fails on the ground, don't you think trying to interpret the daily demeanor of a genocidal psychopath is a bit wishful thinking?

If I could, I would.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 05:08:38 PM
In some more positive news, the Ukrainians apparently ambushed the Chechnyan butchers, killing one of their top generals. Don't know if Kadyrov himself is leading his little warband, but god would that make my day to hear he is nothing more now than a steaming pile of guts and goo.

https://twitter.com/WarNewsPL1/status/1497655637471207425?cxt=HHwWgoCptcH33sgpAAAA (https://twitter.com/WarNewsPL1/status/1497655637471207425?cxt=HHwWgoCptcH33sgpAAAA)


(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/946501664855175178/947249912150650930/unknown.png)

(For those that don't know Kadyrov's... exploits... scroll down to the "Accusations of Human Rights Abuses" and following tabs to get an idea of why I will celebrate when that demon dies.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov#Boston_Marathon_bombing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov#Boston_Marathon_bombing)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 05:41:46 PM
If he was dead, we would hear about it by now as a separate piece I think. I haven't seen anything around here. Fingers crossed.

E: There was something about him wearing Prada today though. So he was there. Aha.

E: Nope, not him.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 08:17:10 PM
The new SWIFT sanctions, in theory, seem good (if still not enough): A large, large percentage of the Russian Central Bank's holdings are kept overseas, and they've just been locked out; if Japan does the same (as it seems they will) then a large majority of Russia's economy just got completely frozen.

Unfortunately this hurts your average Russian far more than it does Putin I think, but in the long-term... they know who's fault this, and I don't think the oligarchs or working class will forget.

At this rate even if Putin captures Ukraine... he might have cost the Russian Federation in return, which would be poetic that the ex-Soviet spy brought down Russia the same way the Soviet Union fell.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 26, 2022, 08:54:05 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 05:08:38 PM(For those that don't know Kadyrov's... exploits... scroll down to the "Accusations of Human Rights Abuses" and following tabs to get an idea of why I will celebrate when that demon dies.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov#Boston_Marathon_bombing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov#Boston_Marathon_bombing)
Yep!  I was just reading about that neckbearded POS last night.  Chechnya sounds like Alabama if it had been taken over by the Taliban and then relocated to Russia.  Dreadful place.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 26, 2022, 09:12:22 PM
Hooboy, has it been a busy day today!  I've seen a LOT of combat footage and seen St Javelin hard at work.  Russian planes getting shot down, Russian tanks shattered into burnt pieces, Russian vehicles getting Molotoved, Russian troops captured (those Ukrainian outfits are fooling no one), etc.

Hell, even Russians are killing Russians.  A Russian warship blew up a Russian warplane. (https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/802692.html)  Dasvidaniya musor.

And the cherry on top is that reportedly, 5000 Russian troops have refused to serve in this conflict (https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497702921521311746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497702921521311746%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_202c9f98-9755-11ec-96e0-466cc6a29702%2F0).
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 09:35:23 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 26, 2022, 08:54:05 PM
Yep!  I was just reading about that neckbearded POS last night.  Chechnya sounds like Alabama if it had been taken over by the Taliban and then relocated to Russia.  Dreadful place.

Mmm, add a little Mongolian-Tatar political heritage in there for more spice; as far as I can tell, the politics of the Chechnyan society has barely changed the last 700 years or so from the tribal Warlord system the Golden Horde brought with them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 09:41:26 PM
One of about 6 Slavic youtubers/Twitch...ers?... I watch, really painful to hear how just how ashamed he is to be Russian when it is not his, or his people's, fault. The Russian people are perhaps one of the most historically oppressed (mostly by their own) peoples throughout history, so as much as I despise Russia the political entity... the only strong feeling I have for them is sorrow.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 26, 2022, 09:56:36 PM
As an American, I can certainly sympathize with him.

It's been strange watching protests against the illegal occupation of Ukraine in Israel of all places.  There was a little blurb about George W Bush talking about the "unprovoked and unjustified invasion" of Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBA6ev5HMe4
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 26, 2022, 10:19:31 PM
https://youtu.be/TgrsxinwUeA
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 26, 2022, 11:28:44 PM
Now that it's clear that the Ukrainians are holding their own, they're up for a fresh round of arms shipments.

Germany (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/): 1000 anti-tank weapons (panzerabwehrwaffen) and 500 Stinger-class surface-to-air missiles
Netherlands (https://www.rferl.org/a/czech-netherlands-military-aid-ukraine/31724987.html):  200 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
Czech Republic (https://www.rferl.org/a/czech-netherlands-military-aid-ukraine/31724987.html):  machine guns, assault rifles, small arms (worth $8.6 million)
Belgium (https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698691): 3800 tonnes of fuel, 2000 machine guns
Slovakia (https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698691):  artillery ammunition and fuel (worth $12.39 million)
US (https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-approves-350-million-military-aid-ukraine-2022-02-26/): third round of arms shipments, this one including anti-aircraft, anti-armor, small arms, body armor, various munitions (worth $350 million)
EU (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-coordinate-arms-shipments-ukraine/): seeking to coordinate new arms shipments on behalf of 27 nations

(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1213/8910/products/Thanks_Buddy_Keep_EmFiring_-1942-WorldWarII-PropagandaPostersmall.jpg?v=1586564320)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 11:47:25 PM
I don't pray, but tonight I just might.

(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/946501664855175178/947335459657371709/unknown.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 12:03:10 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ef4YeB_Zbz0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Exjv_VMkNw

lol, I'm actually kinda starting to feel bad for the Russians.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 27, 2022, 12:34:43 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 12:03:10 AM

lol, I'm actually kinda starting to feel bad for the Russians.

The sense of humor of the Ukrainians has been inspiring... well, the Ukrainians in general. I truly believe the world would be a better place if it had a lot more of them in it.

Before tonight, I did too; the kids who are there now are just that... kids. Putin seems to be sending all the old Soviet junk with the youngest, most ignorant soldiers to soak up fire and get rid of the trash before moving in with the real human rights and war crime shit. Any Russians who come in after that first wave though, I have no more sympathy for. They have had time to defect or surrender, as many have already. If they want to keep going, then they have made their own bed.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/02/26/7326201/ (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/02/26/7326201/)

QuoteIn Kharkiv region, Ukrainian defenders found internationally banned cluster bombs with butterfly mines (the so-called "Lepestok" mines).

"They are dropping cluster bombs with ‘Lepestok’ mines. Their colour may vary. They are about the size of a finger. If you step on one, it will blow your leg off."

Venedyktova explained that ‘Lepestok’ mines are a type of explosives banned by the Geneva Convention.

According to her, this kind of weaponry had devastating effects when used in various armed conflicts of the 20th century.

Then these things have been spotted moving in Ukraine... if they fire these into a city, the collateral damage is going to be fucking horrific.



Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 12:50:16 AM
Geneva Convention violations.  I feel significantly less bad.

Imho, any Russian soldier who sets foot in Ukraine deserves whatever happens to them.  They were warned plenty.  And any Russian politician who supported this deserves much, much worse.  Everything that has happened is on their heads, bereaved Ukrainians and Russians alike know this.  They better sleep lightly for the remainder of their lives.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 27, 2022, 01:21:31 AM
Guys, come on. Soldiers do not make a decision to join any army training in most of the world, let alone on setting foot on a country to invade it when drafted. It's not the USA. Who knows how many soldiers in Russian army who don't want to be involved with this. Mandatory draft. Telegraph had a piece on thousands of Russian young men running away abroad for asylum to escape from it. And it is a very serious felony. Two years in military prison in Russia. Any takers? We have the same problem, and let me tell you, you don't want that for your worst enemy.

These people have families. It's not some case of "oh young men could run away". No, they can't. A little empathy please. And right now, countries should open borders and help those people to take asylum.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 27, 2022, 02:04:07 AM
Eh, was going to explain my reasoning but it doesn't really matter since there is no objective reality on this... so in short...

QuoteA little empathy please.

I'm showing far more than they deserve; a quick and clean death is probably far nicer than what your average Russian grunt deserves, but I do sympathize that they don't want to be there. As for those who are intentionally butchering civilians and committing war crimes... it's not too late to bring back crucifixion I don't think.


Those that lay down arms and surrender should be treated with dignity and shipped West, to get them as far from Putin as possible... and so far, that seems to be how the Ukrainians are treating them. Can you imagine the Russians and the Belarusians doing the same?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 27, 2022, 02:13:32 AM
Description of how the thermobaric weapons operate...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin-thermobaric-rockets-b2023880.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin-thermobaric-rockets-b2023880.html)


Quote“Imagine taking a deep breath then submerging yourself in water. Then imagine having all of the oxygen forced instantaneously from your body. Try to inhale again. But instead of cold water filling your lungs, toxic, flammable particles start killing you from the inside out,” he wrote.Only blasts caused by nuclear attacks are worse.


Russia has allegedly used these missiles in Chechnya and Syria.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMlRW9fVQAAJ-PZ?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Again... a clean death is far nicer than what these people deserve; it was used in Grozny, Chechnya and apparently is as horrifying as it's made out to be.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 27, 2022, 03:23:33 AM
I wasn't specifically reacting to you. But we don't need some objective reality. Under the presented circumstances, we can be sure there would be many soldiers who would not be there given a choice. There are everywhere. It seems to me that you are confusing people who see it legitimate, more, honourable to slaughter, torture, annihilate people in the name of nationalism, and people who has to be there without any choice. And I'm talking about the soldiers who has to obey, NOT the ones who decide to fire which weapon. That makes all the difference if you want some objective point. Without any choice part is very real and often ignored by the people who were raised in western cultures because it is hard to put your mind in. I'm not trying to provoke or ire, this is a fact. It's as impossible for you to imagine to be in their situation, as it is for me because you are lucky, and I was a born as a woman. Well, this is not gender studies, but again, a fact. As far as I'm concerned, it goes for everyone but drafted combat soldiers.

With that former group, I agree with you wholeheartedly and could offer much worse as punishment.

The human culture is overly militarised even in the most 'civilised' countries, and this is a huge bleeding issue with young men of ages between 18-25. Kids. Doesn't matter what age, it's a crime against humanity. The military concepts, traditions, nationalism -obey or die- is so deeply carved into human culture, it's almost seen as those young men do not have a right to step out of this.

War. Once you step in it, it's always the worst that happens. There is no clean one. I just wish people would remember that these drafted national soldiers are not mercenaries. There are the worst kind of mercenaries in every army, but there is a ton of them nobody hears-sees-listens that aren't and don't want to be there. They can't talk, run away or do anything else. They do not have any means to raise their voice without fundamentally ruin or alter their lives, subject themselves to horrible circumstances. You can be sure that even another ton of soldiers who foolishly thinks this was legitimate, until immediately seeing what war really is, but cannot get out of it. They can demand to be dismissed in the US, right? Honourable or dishonourable? This right doesn't exist in the most national armies, until they are considered a real threat for their own.

And imagine what's going to happen when surviving ones go back home. Most will commit suicide, or shell shocked, live as a corpse and as generations will change, they will be blamed by young people who do not understand their situation. Exactly like drafted American kids who were called 'baby killers' when the government has continued for years and years, knowing they are sending them to be slaughtered, to a lost war.

Sorry, it became too long. Long story short, I'm just saying that demonising is never a good idea.



Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on February 27, 2022, 07:38:41 AM
At first, I thought the invasion of Ukraine would be a replay of Hitler walking into Poland and simply taking over.  Now I'm reading about massive Ukrainian resistance in the face of being out manned and out gunned, but this is all from the Western press.  Even if Ukraine makes a valiant effort, I don't see any positive outcome for them.  And I'm suspect of the the Western press, so I'm not getting my hopes up.

Putin is a first class schmuck. He may have gone nuts.  But sometimes an asshole is just an asshole, and not crazy.  Who knows?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 27, 2022, 08:05:26 AM
Yeah, it looks odd to me too. The moment I want to get my hopes up, I keep thinking, 'over four thousand dead Russian soldiers at one side while just a few hundreds at the other'. It's just been 3 days and it feels like weeks, may be that's the reason. Then I also agree that it could be another strategy against the invasion to support Ukraine. I hope it is nothing sinister.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on February 27, 2022, 09:05:15 AM
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2022/feb/27/take-note-of-right-wing-leaders-who-stand-with-put/
Quote
Donald Trump calls Russia’s attack of Ukraine a stroke of genius by Vladimir Putin and says it offers a lesson to the U.S. about how to treat Mexico.
Big egos think alike.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 09:14:26 AM
I'm a lot less sympathetic to "just following orders" reasoning post-WW2.

Even Putin claims that he had no choice, that Ukraine's decisions forced "desperate measures" (blaming the victim).  It's an obvious transfer of moral culpability and yet another thing reminiscent of Hitler.

At a certain point, my sympathy can no longer be extended, and that point was the deliberate targeting of civilians.  Russian troops are fully aware of this or else they wouldn't refuse orders, as some have.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SoldierofFortune on February 27, 2022, 09:29:37 AM
It always gives me a laugh when any particular ordinary citizen posting on forums uses the pronoun -we- when they are talking about their country.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SoldierofFortune on February 27, 2022, 09:34:57 AM
It also gives me a big laugh when people posting on forums whether or not they agree with some action of any country on the international level.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 10:22:37 AM
Catching some Zs (https://i.imgur.com/Ri3x990.mp4) (abandoned Russian convoy, free loot for Ukraine)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 10:23:27 AM
Snake Island border guards may be alive (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-snake-island-soldiers-b2024289.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 10:31:06 AM
Free tanks, too. (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t2lmk3/civilians_in_good_mood_allegedly_captured_russian/)  You know what this calls for?  Road trip!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 27, 2022, 10:53:48 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 09:14:26 AM
I'm a lot less sympathetic to "just following orders" reasoning post-WW2. ...

If you got that from what I wrote, then you completely misunderstood my point. I clearly wrote about two different group of soldiers. Whatever Putin keep saying is the oldest propaganda in the book. Unless he was talking about his KGB days though. He is likely to know waay more about the other stuff.

High ranking soldiers/officials with power of creating atrocities are really not stupid, you know? That's why they are there. They know who to chose,  or how to play that move if you will. There are many means of measuring/understanding which people in what group is suitable to do what, when. It won't do to put a man with a family after he is drafted in that position. It's stupid. But then, probably an old drill sergeant with certain amount of experience would very often be right about who to put to use/do what, let's say to use thermobaric weaponry or drop a nuke to kill hundreds of thousands of people. These soldiers are trained to commit these atrocities. They are not just drafted men to obey orders. Again because it would be stupid.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 11:51:02 AM
Are soldiers morally culpable for the orders they carry out?

If yes, then we agree and I must've misread the part about soldiers having no choice.  Apologies.  If no, then we disagree for the reasons stated above.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 27, 2022, 12:01:36 PM
As a student of history, I have noticed a common strategy of sending 2nd rate troops in first as a gauge while holding the elite and more capable troops in reserve. Saddam did this. The US does the opposite. Is that we we are seeing so far?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 12:07:09 PM
Quote from: Cassia on February 27, 2022, 12:01:36 PM
As a student of history, I have noticed a common strategy of sending 2nd rate troops in first as a gauge while holding the elite and more capable troops in reserve. Saddam did this. The US does the opposite. Is that we we are seeing so far?
They were trying to rapidly capture Kyiv, which seems like an unlikely strategy with less-capable troops.  And Russian special forces have been involved in the fighting so far.  Either way is possible, I guess, but unless you hear otherwise, wysiwyg.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 27, 2022, 12:28:28 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 11:51:02 AM
Are soldiers morally culpable for the orders they carry out?

If yes, then we agree and I must've misread the part about soldiers having no choice.  Apologies.  If no, then we disagree for the reasons stated above.

Of course, they are. The position of not having the right to conscientious objection is having 'no choice'. It's all the difference in the world.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on February 27, 2022, 01:55:00 PM
 This is so strange
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nifxKIhFSuw
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 02:14:41 PM
Russian invaders run out of gas, head to local police station, get promptly arrested (https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497945813330411527)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 02:20:47 PM
In Ukraine, Gypsies stole a Russian tank (https://cwyc55.c97.org/en/news/2022/2/27/456612)

¯\_(ãƒ,,)_/¯
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 27, 2022, 07:22:51 PM
Quote from: drunkenshoe on February 27, 2022, 03:23:33 AM

Sorry, it became too long. Long story short, I'm just saying that demonising is never a good idea.

It's all good, and I think I agree with essentially all of it as well.

I don't see it as "demonizing" them though to wish them death as they are invading; as soon as they lay down their gun, go back across the border, the war is over, whatever... I have no ill will towards the vast majority of Russian soldiers and do feel bad for them. Poetically I think the closest thing I can really compare it to is sports; when your playing against someone, they are the enemy and you don't think about if they get hurt when you slide in to tackle them or kick near their face... but once the games over you might be close friends. It's demonizing more the job they are doing than the individual themselves.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 27, 2022, 07:54:07 PM
Germany is beginning to beef up their own military, something they had renounced since the fall of the wall, and that both neither Trump nor Obama could convince them to do.


Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 08:45:42 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on February 27, 2022, 07:54:07 PM
Germany is beginning to beef up their own military, something they had renounced since the fall of the wall, and that both neither Trump nor Obama could convince them to do.



In Japan, Abe suggested that Japan start hosting US nukes (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/02/27/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-japan-nuclear-weapons-taiwan/), which is a hell of a reversal for Japan.  Abe doesn't hold office anymore, and the idea isn't a good one imho for several reasons.  But that this idea is even being discussed at all shows the depths of the outrage towards Russia globally and the war-footing stance the world is in now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 09:25:21 PM
Ukraine and Russia agree to peace talks (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-peace-talks-zelenskiy-putin-hague/) (normally, peace talks are performed during a ceasefire but we live in interesting times)

QuoteThe announcement of direct peace talks, on the fourth day of all-out war in Ukraine, signaled that the Kremlin was feeling some pressure and potentially miscalculated that Ukraine’s military and government would swiftly collapse.

Putin had long refused direct negotiations with Ukraine to settle the eight-year war in Donbass, which Russia organized and financed. And initially, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had rebuffed the offer of peace talks, saying Moscow had set preconditions that effectively amounted to Ukraine’s total surrender.

A spokesman for Zelenskiy said that the answer to Moscow was the same expletive that Ukrainian marines used to insult a Russian warship before they were all reportedly killed. But by Sunday afternoon, there was a deal to meet at a checkpoint near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, and Ukrainian officials said all preconditions were dropped.
Russia initially set preconditions tantamount to surrender before talks.  Now, Russia no longer offers preconditions.  Very interesting.

And Zelenskiv's rebuff is pure gold.  :D
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 27, 2022, 10:04:38 PM
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on February 27, 2022, 09:29:37 AM
It always gives me a laugh when any particular ordinary citizen posting on forums uses the pronoun -we- when they are talking about their country.



We - pronoun - A. "used as the subject of a verb to refer to a group including the speaker and at least one other person:"


...


B2. "used as the subject of a verb to refer to all people, especially when considered as a group:"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 27, 2022, 10:06:59 PM
A saint I can get behind.

(https://images.thequint.com/thequint%2F2022-02%2Fa33c9cc3-59f2-4478-a4f7-d3d010ddbf35%2FFMj4At3WYAIgECN.jpeg?rect=0%2C0%2C1024%2C576)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 28, 2022, 12:00:31 AM
First, disclaimer; probably doesn't need to be said, but take anything the Ukrainian gov't says about it's heroes with a grain of salt.

Second, I'm going to completely ignore my first point and believe this without a second of hesitation because it ultimately doesn't actually matter if it's one pilot or twenty.

https://twitter.com/Ibleed2toneblu/status/1497997855990157317

(https://i.imgur.com/ChK0cgg.png)

(Accidently cropped it, but source is the official Ukrainian Defense Ministery twitter)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 28, 2022, 12:18:25 AM
Quote from: Shiranu on February 28, 2022, 12:00:31 AMFirst, disclaimer; probably doesn't need to be said, but take anything the Ukrainian gov't says about it's heroes with a grain of salt.
Even if it's not 100% real, modern wars are won more by PR and pressuring governments to take specific actions than by open combat.  I believe that there is such a thing as good propaganda, one that leads people into bolstering democratic governments and sapping cooperation with dictators.  And then, perhaps the lie can become the reality.

If I were to tell you that there's a bloodthirsty bear battering at your door and he's bulletproof and quick and you are doomed, what would you do?  If instead, I told you that he is scared of loud noises and fire, that you can stab his eyes with a kitchen knife and he will run away, even if I do not know any of this for a fact, it might encourage you to make it so.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on February 28, 2022, 01:54:29 AM
Just realized this is from 2016, but just for some positivity and non-war related stuff that's still Ukraine related...

Traditional floral crowns and outfits of the Ukrainian people. Absolutely beautiful, and just from a guestimation... probably dating back to Ukraine's pagan roots.


Putin insists there is no such thing as Ukrainian culture, just Russian, so in what small way I can I am trying to learn about their culture and have started trying to read a little bit of the language... just as a middle finger to him.

(https://www.sunnyskyz.com/uploads/2016/08/jdnpn-traditional-ukrainian-flower-crowns-treti-pivni-1.jpg)

(https://www.sunnyskyz.com/uploads/2016/08/fpeqo-traditional-ukrainian-flower-crowns-treti-pivni-2.jpg)

https://www.sunnyskyz.com/blog/1643/Ukrainian-Women-Bring-Back-Traditional-Floral-Crowns-To-Show-National-Pride (https://www.sunnyskyz.com/blog/1643/Ukrainian-Women-Bring-Back-Traditional-Floral-Crowns-To-Show-National-Pride)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Draconic Aiur on February 28, 2022, 06:35:23 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 08:45:42 PM
In Japan, Abe suggested that Japan start hosting US nukes (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/02/27/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-japan-nuclear-weapons-taiwan/), which is a hell of a reversal for Japan.  Abe doesn't hold office anymore, and the idea isn't a good one imho for several reasons.  But that this idea is even being discussed at all shows the depths of the outrage towards Russia globally and the war-footing stance the world is in now.

Probably a response to Russia, China, North Korea being buddies
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 28, 2022, 06:35:39 AM
Bad Monday for Putin (https://www.cityam.com/not-a-good-morning-for-putin-500-russian-soldiers-killed-rouble-crashes-bankrun-in-moscow-russia-kicked-out-of-swift/) Russian advance slowed, Russian economy in turmoil, sanctions mount

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMqlRFMXsAMQhwQ?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 28, 2022, 06:48:54 AM
(https://i.redd.it/ddcxqv134jk81.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on February 28, 2022, 07:28:26 AM
https://youtu.be/fG9pxkZXiTw

Thought this vid was well spoken.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on February 28, 2022, 08:54:47 AM
Zelensky addresses Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7GY1Xg6X20

To those who can hear me, I say - do not despair. The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed - the bitterness of men who fear the way of human progress. The hate of men will pass, and dictators die, and the power they took from the people will return to the people. And so long as men die, liberty will never perish…

Soldiers! don’t give yourselves to brutes - men who despise you - enslave you - who regiment your lives - tell you what to do - what to think and what to feel! Who drill you - diet you - treat you like cattle, use you as cannon fodder. Don’t give yourselves to these unnatural men - machine men with machine minds and machine hearts! You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts! You don’t hate! Only the unloved hate - the unloved and the unnatural! Soldiers! Don’t fight for slavery! Fight for liberty!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on February 28, 2022, 12:29:24 PM
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on February 28, 2022, 07:28:26 AM
https://youtu.be/fG9pxkZXiTw

Thought this vid was well spoken.

Indeed. Things she said at the beginning about 'shredding' the economy, any policy for serving people and creating organised crime [for control, imo]...etc. is what I was trying to say in a deleted rant post yesterday. Corruption, crime is a very good weapons for dictators. Crime is a perfect tool for fear. Because that's how oligarchies thrive. It's a hierarchy from top to bottom.

But I disagree with the idea that the invasion attempt of Ukraine is a result of the 'resentment caused by failure' part. Dictators do not give a fuck about failing in this sense and manner. It's all about taking everything possible, building an empire on fear for power. People are just canon fodder, but nothing else. That's why the right wing and religious mentality cannot administrate any countries anymore. Period.

So I don't believe Putin has ever accepted the current borders. This was just a matter of time. Do they really think Putin -or his supporters- think he has failed? He is just mad he found this kind of resistance, esp. considering the latest shift in politics wide around the world. Mainly, Brexit, Trump...etc.

And this is not just Russia. Small or big countries, same deal is going on everywhere in Asia and Middle East. It's just, save a couple they cannot afford to do this.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 05, 2022, 10:28:55 PM
So we've gotten to the part where the Russian advance has ground to a halt, Ukraine has been making something of a counteroffensive, everyone and their brother has divested from Russia, Putin is begging for no more sanctions while at the same time threatening to end Ukraine's existence as a sovereign state (this dude is like a couple months from swallowing a gun or getting strung up like Mussolini), oh and both Georgia and Moldova applied for EU membership.

We certainly live in interesting times.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 05, 2022, 10:54:24 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 05, 2022, 10:28:55 PMSo we've gotten to the part where the Russian advance has ground to a halt, Ukraine has been making something of a counteroffensive, everyone and their brother has divested from Russia, Putin is begging for no more sanctions while at the same time threatening to end Ukraine's existence as a sovereign state (this dude is like a couple months from swallowing a gun or getting strung up like Mussolini), oh and both Georgia and Moldova applied for EU membership.

We certainly live in interesting times.
It's like a megayacht-of-the-day gets confiscated. Read somewhere even Sweden thinks NATO isn't such a bad idea... but who knows what is real anymore on all these insane new feeds. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 05, 2022, 11:14:12 PM
Quote from: Cassia on March 05, 2022, 10:54:24 PMIt's like a megayacht-of-the-day gets confiscated. Read somewhere even Sweden thinks NATO isn't such a bad idea... but who knows what is real anymore on all these insane new feeds. 
There was a blurb the other day about a big mansion being seized from an oligarch that could be used to house Ukrainian refugees.  Now that would be quite a sight to see!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 05, 2022, 11:19:15 PM
Red VS Red (https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/03/russian-troops-attack-and-destroy-their-own-troops-tanks/)

Do you ever wonder why we're here?  No, I mean literally, why we're stuck in the world's worst traffic jam eating F-tier rations, no petrol, almost no ammo, and shooting at our own forces?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 07, 2022, 07:50:19 PM
The invaders were reportedly gearing up to assault Kyiv, but the latest news definitely put that on ice:

- A Russian convoy near Kyiv was annihilated (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/7/7329096/) ("There is no need to be afraid. The Russian army is not strong, it is just long. We will eat them slowly, like a salami.")
- Another Russian fuel convoy annihilated (https://m.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/ukraine-russia-war-convoy-of-russian-fuel-trucks-destroyed-by-ukrainians-in-chernihiv-articleshow.html)
- Another Russian general KIA (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting-general-killed-b2030661.html)
- Ukrainians captured another airfield (https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1499778152108892162?s=20&t=M0DHgvMY_hJe29oKEBYFag)
- 30 (!) Russian helicopters destroyed on the ground (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-kherson-chornobaivka-airfield-military-invasion-russia-soldiers-1685404)

Suffice it to say that the war has not necessarily progressed to Russia's advantage.

At this rate, in two weeks they'll have to beg to be towed back to Russia (be sure to get the payment upfront, the ruble isn't looking so good atm)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on March 08, 2022, 07:11:35 AM
Sadly, I do take both sides´ claims with a grain of salt.

But here is yo remaining Hopeful.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on March 08, 2022, 09:11:37 AM
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on March 08, 2022, 07:11:35 AMSadly, I do take both sides´ claims with a grain of salt.

But here is yo remaining Hopeful.
From Hydra's Red vs Red article:

QuoteAccording to USA Today, thousands of Russian citizens across the country have risked prison to protest Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Since the invasion began, over 8,000 Russians have reportedly been taken into police custody for antiwar activities.

In response to the dissent, the Russian parliament passed a law on Friday allowing citizens to be punished for spreading what the Kremlin deems "fake news" regarding the invasion in Ukraine. Violators face up to 15 years in prison.

Russian officials have also forced journalists to call the attack on Ukraine a "military operation of demilitarization," essentially forbidding them from using the term "war."

"It becomes dangerous to cover news in Ukraine," Olga Bychkova, Echo of Moscow's deputy editor in chief, told USA TODAY. She noted that Russia's new law targeting speech is "blurry" and "allows authorities to go after anybody."
In reading this Western Press information, I have come to dislike Putin and the Russian Government more than ever, but I take all of this with a grain of salt too.  It makes me wonder; When the US invades another country, what does the non-Western press read like?  I'm guessing it too must be quite scathing and reproachful, but we don't have very good access to that over here.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 09, 2022, 06:17:44 PM
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on March 08, 2022, 07:11:35 AMSadly, I do take both sides´ claims with a grain of salt.

But here is to remaining Hopeful.
Yes, as you should.  However, both sides have different methods of reporting and distort the truth to vastly different degrees.

For example, Russia did not even report any war casualties early in the conflict (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/h_e639ac6b26088869e312d271cf790ff2) while every other source reported hundreds of Russian KIA, with a significant amount of footage to substantiate it.

Ukraine, in contrast, generally reports fairly truthfully, perhaps a slight exaggeration here and there; Ghost of Kyiv stuff.  Their main technique is to portray Ukrainians in as a heroic and sympathetic light as possible, while showing russian forces as cruel or pathetic as possible.  An adjustment that requires significantly less effort than their russian counterparts (https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putins-state-tv-stars-rage-about-getting-trolled-with-photos-of-dead-russian-troops-in-ukraine).

Ukrainian source:

(https://preview.redd.it/286g2bbilgl81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=8f25dfc1748984f9f7f4aefcafdfc284653ee147)

Russian source:

(https://preview.redd.it/cp95p9bilgl81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=1b0f51d8e714064b42876965285941bd205fe09a)

From my own posts, I generally report surprising developments, which can give a skewed impression of an endless string of Russian failures and routs - that the Russian military is a paper tiger that cannot do anything right.  Obviously, this is not the case.

About 20% of Ukrainian territory has been successfully conquered and held.  However, this amount has not changed much in the past week, which gives me some hope.  There has also been a significant loss of life among Ukrainian civilian populations as well as a considerable amount of Ukrainian military KIA, which I note but intentionally don't draw attention towards because it can be very discouraging.

I'd much rather focus on russian defeats to give some amount of hope that the conquest of Ukraine is not a foregone conclusion, but something that can be prevented.  And with each passing day, donated arms/equipment flows into Ukraine, foreign fighters (many are elite troops) flock to Ukraine's defense, more money pools into Ukrainian coffers while Russia's economy bleeds like a sieve, etc.  Every day Ukraine stands firm - every day russian forces fail to gain much ground, every day that Kyiv stays standing - it becomes less and less likely that it will be conquered.  Slava Ukraini!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 09, 2022, 06:27:57 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWgiOgHhPbw
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 09, 2022, 09:59:52 PM
UK to donate its most advanced man-portable AA to Ukraine (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2F2022%2F03%2F09%2Fbritain-send-worlds-advanced-anti-aircraft-missile-system-ukraine%2F%3Futm_content%3Dtelegraph%26utm_medium%3DSocial%26utm_campaign%3DEchobox%26utm_source%3DTwitter%23Echobox%3D1646846132)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starstreak

When deployed, this could further weaken Russia's already weak air raids (they switched to night attacks for "enhanced survivability") and further split russian convoys from their air support.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 10, 2022, 11:10:30 AM
A surprisingly accurate description of the war on Ukraine... from a year ago, and from Russia.

https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Blackleaf on March 10, 2022, 11:15:29 AM

According to Pat Robertson, the REAL reason Putin decided to invade the Ukraine is because God compelled him to, so that God could get the end times out of the way. To be clear, Pat Robertson isn't saying that Putin is right to invade the Ukraine, but that God is basically pulling the same heart-hardening trick he pulled on the pharaoh, when he made the pharaoh go after the Israelites, just so he could kill him. In this case, Pat thinks Putin obtaining control of the Ukraine will get him one step closer to Israel...somehow. And that will officially kick off the apocalypse.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 10, 2022, 12:06:29 PM
Ukrainians launch a counterattack against russian forces east of Kyiv, eliminate another russian commander (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/drone-footage-russia-tanks-ambushed-ukraine-forces-kyiv-war)

Another huge setback for russian invaders' goal of taking Kyiv.

And military experts seemed surprised the unexpectedly poor tactics among the russian forces, racing through open road without caution or infantry support only to run face-first into an entirely predictable ambush.  Putin admitted to using conscripts, so poor training is likely a big factor in their failure, though it doesn't explain the notably subpar equipment, logistics, and communications.  I feel misled by their much more competent portrayal in the movies.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 10, 2022, 12:44:07 PM
Russia complains that China refuses to supply aircraft parts (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fbusiness%2Faerospace-defense%2Frussia-says-china-refuses-supply-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10%2F)

QuoteAgencies including Interfax quoted Valery Kudinov, a Rosaviatsia official responsible for maintaining airplane airworthiness, as saying that Russia would look for opportunities to source parts from countries including Turkey and India after a failed attempt to obtain them from China.
lol, good luck trying to get them from a NATO country.  India is a little more realistic.

After sanctions hit Russia hard, they've been relying heavily on China for succor, not unlike North Korea.  This gives China a significant amount of leverage.  I wouldn't be surprised if years from now, Russia had become largely dependent on China and taken on a somewhat subservient role.  Russians have long regarded China as a little brother.  That dynamic could be reversed in the future.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 10, 2022, 08:01:35 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on March 10, 2022, 11:10:30 AMA surprisingly accurate description of the war on Ukraine... from a year ago, and from Russia.

https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/
And.. he is an church trashing atheist and stunningly vampyrish.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 10, 2022, 08:10:33 PM
Quote from: Cassia on March 10, 2022, 08:01:35 PMAnd.. he is an church trashing atheist and stunningly vampyrish.

How this guy still has a place in Russian media, much less in Russia period, is beyond me. Apparently he use to be the modern equivalent to the court jester for Putin, his opposition and criticism being a thing of amusement rather threat like it is with others.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 10, 2022, 10:00:07 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 11, 2022, 08:57:50 PM
Third Russian general KIA in Ukraine (https://www.businessinsider.com/third-russian-general-killed-invasion-ukraine-claims-2022-3)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 11, 2022, 09:28:58 PM
Biden to revoke Russia's trade status (https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/biden-revokes-russia-favored-trade-status/)

US to send $13.6 billion in military/humanitarian aid to Ukraine (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-approves-bill-ukraine-aid/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 12, 2022, 10:32:24 AM
(https://i.redd.it/j3zkdhd1exm81.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 12, 2022, 10:56:28 AM
I read that Russians primarily consume govt. TV. Do they really believe it? After seeing what happens here, I think yes, most probably do.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 12, 2022, 01:07:00 PM
Quote from: Cassia on March 12, 2022, 10:56:28 AMI read that Russians primarily consume govt. TV. Do they really believe it? After seeing what happens here, I think yes, most probably do.
Unclear.

Thousands have protested the war or otherwise shown their displeasure (like the viral clip of the Russian pilot publically calling Putin's invasion criminal).  It's safe to assume that these people do not agree with the pro-invasion state media.

On the flip side of the coin, there are calls from russian soldiers to relatives who seem genuinely surprised to learn that the Ukrainians aren't welcoming them with open arms and that Russian forces have intentionally killed civilians.

The plurality, I suspect, are somewhere in the middle.  Confused and generally aware that the situation is not good, but not privy to much details and/or feeling powerless to express any opinion at all.

They're misled successfully to some degree, but they're not stupid.  I assume that most Russians do not genuinely believe Putin when he says that the sanctions would've happened regardless (most countries make it through the day without getting sanctioned for no reason) and don't believe that Russia hasn't invaded anyone and the Ukrainians are firing upon themselves, as some officials have stated.

Putin's Big Lie strategy and its ability to fool only a fairly small subset of people already distrustful of facts reminds me a lot of a certain someone...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 13, 2022, 04:58:04 PM
Freedom of speech in Russia (https://v.redd.it/86lr528a67n81)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Emperor Ronny Raygun on March 13, 2022, 11:59:16 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 12, 2022, 01:07:00 PMUnclear.



What's also unclear is the level of pro-war/[operation] support in Russia. A few thousand protestors doesn't represent a majority opposition. Although being arrested and detained could be a deterrent .... 15 years for media. The data is dirty.

If Zelensky cared about his people, he'd negotiate, not arm civilians and coerce them to their almost certain deaths.   

Putin is evil. To put it in Biblical terms, Putin is zombie Jesus and this is Ukraine's Apocalypse. Repent or burn.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on March 14, 2022, 12:14:54 AM
Quote from: Emperor Ronny Raygun on March 13, 2022, 11:59:16 PMWhat's also unclear is the level of pro-war/[operation] support in Russia. A few thousand protestors doesn't represent a majority opposition. Although being arrested and detained could be a deterrent .... 15 years for media. The data is dirty.

If Zelensky cared about his people, he'd negotiate, not arm civilians and coerce them to their almost certain deaths.   

Putin is evil. To put it in Biblical terms, Putin is zombie Jesus and this is Ukraine's Apocalypse. Repent or burn.


That's what Pat Robertson says--God made Putin attack the Ukraine which puts his attack closer to Israel and hence the end times.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Emperor Ronny Raygun on March 14, 2022, 12:48:20 AM
Quote from: Mike Cl on March 14, 2022, 12:14:54 AMThat's what Pat Robertson says--God made Putin attack the Ukraine which puts his attack closer to Israel and hence the end times.

Qanon needs to know about Putin's immaculate conception.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 14, 2022, 07:27:21 PM
Quote from: Emperor Ronny Raygun on March 13, 2022, 11:59:16 PMIf Zelensky cared about his people, he'd negotiate, not arm civilians and coerce them to their almost certain deaths.
LOL, he's about to begin the fourth round of negotiations soon.

And afaik, those civilians are arming themselves because they're being invaded, which is kinda pretty typical when countries are invaded.  What did you expect?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 14, 2022, 07:35:10 PM

Suffice it to say that there's some quite passionate opposition to Putin's invasion.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 14, 2022, 07:59:22 PM
Anti-war statement of Channel One editor Marina Ovsyannikova. Prerecorded, I presume as she is probably in jail or worse.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 15, 2022, 12:50:55 AM
Assessment of Russian invasion of Ukraine from Chinese professor (https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/?fbclid=IwAR3qx4PpAIsGAMmOhnGnNVYxNWQjtE37hhSpNrNk27bET4xZBgISNDFnD98)

Long read but worth the time

QuoteI. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

1.  Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin's attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia's domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine's capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin's best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.

Extremely quotable:  "A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on March 15, 2022, 04:38:26 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 15, 2022, 12:50:55 AMAssessment of Russian invasion of Ukraine from Chinese professor (https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/?fbclid=IwAR3qx4PpAIsGAMmOhnGnNVYxNWQjtE37hhSpNrNk27bET4xZBgISNDFnD98)
The Chinese perspective may be close to spot on, but I doubt it will have any effect on the immediate situation, because I think Putin is a mad man.  He reminds me of George Bush, but without a smarter vice president to lead him and orchestrate an effective propaganda campaign.  I don't see any change in Putin's position as he meets unexpected resistance.  He has just doubled down and changed his goal from a take over to utter destruction. And I don't think he envisions stopping with the Ukraine. I feel much closer to nuclear war than I did during the Cuban missile crisis. I'm hoping for Putin's assassination from an insider and a restructuring of the leadership.  I said hoping.  This is far from a prediction, but I see no positive resolution ahead; Just a lot of bloodshed and unhappy people in a world that is already suffering in chaos.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 15, 2022, 09:15:16 AM
Three EU leaders (PMs of Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovenia) traveling to Kyiv to meet with Zelensky (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fthree-eu-country-leaders-take-train-kyiv-show-support-ukraine-2022-03-15%2F)

Both to reaffirm EU's support for Ukraine and to personally provide supply package.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 16, 2022, 11:10:28 AM
Russia has lost about 40% of its units involved in Ukraine (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/16/war-in-ukraine-day-21-russians-lost-40-of-units-97-ukrainian-children-have-died/) (I assume this means vehicles)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 16, 2022, 12:07:15 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 17, 2022, 10:39:08 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/OaPRDwm.jpeg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 17, 2022, 10:47:24 AM
Ukraine and Moldova join European power grid (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-european-power-grid-russia/)

They were previously part of the Integrated Power System, which includes Russia and Belarus.

Now, Russia literally has no power over them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 17, 2022, 04:37:52 PM
Russian invader losses through 3/17 (https://v.redd.it/h37ge4i5nxn81)

🌻 🌻 🌻
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 17, 2022, 06:34:43 PM
Putin's military firepower seems so impressive, but intel, logistics and human emotional investment are just as important. I imagine the Russian soldiers might be sorta like Mussolini's soldiers. Many Italians thought they were on the wrong side. However, I can understand that soldiers do fight for their fellow soldiers no matter what but shelling houses, shelters and hospitals must be demoralizing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 18, 2022, 02:27:15 PM

*coughs* Hard to believe that they're losing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 19, 2022, 10:25:46 AM
Russia butthurt over Canadian ridicule (https://www.rawstory.com/r-2656990557/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on March 19, 2022, 11:17:06 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 19, 2022, 10:25:46 AMRussia butthurt over Canadian ridicule (https://www.rawstory.com/r-2656990557/)
Ouch.  Russia deserved that.  Well, Putin deserved it. But my guess is that he will double down on the carnage.  Putin will not be stopped by words.  He has lost that ability. He's a baby throwing his toys in a baby fit. Unfortunately, he can't be ignored like we would a baby.  He's dangerous.  Uncontrollable, but dangerous.  We have to invade Russia and stop him by force.  Poland is next.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 19, 2022, 01:46:23 PM
Russia announces decade-long sanctions on...itself. (https://zeenews.india.com/world/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-to-propose-10-year-ban-on-foreign-companies-that-dont-return-by-may-1-2446199.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 19, 2022, 01:56:31 PM
Sean Hannity says Putin was channeling his "inner Trump" at cultish North Korean-style "rally" (https://www.businessinsider.com/sean-hannity-putin-channeling-his-inner-trump-at-moscow-rally-2022-3)

He certainly has been matching Trump's acumen lately

Btw, his trashbag of a jacket costs more than the yearly salary of the average Russian.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 19, 2022, 02:01:59 PM
Fifth invader general takes a dirt nap (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-putin-zelenskyy-peace-talks-nato-live-updates-12541713?postid=3573140#liveblog-body)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 19, 2022, 04:07:51 PM
Individual soldiers can fire hand-held weapons that have good odds against the current generation of tanks, choppers, or jet aircraft as they attack. Sitting in your tank just waiting for a fireball and your own ammunition to blow your head and turret right off. No doubt, chemical weapons are being considered by that POS Putin.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 20, 2022, 08:49:37 AM
Belarusians sabotage rail lines leading to Ukraine, further frustrating Russian logistics (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1505260472492347395)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 20, 2022, 04:03:30 PM
Putin's Next Target? The Moldova - Transnistria Issue
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SoldierofFortune on March 20, 2022, 06:05:42 PM
Ive long abandoned to follow up-to-date political news whether they are internal about Turkey where I live, or at the international level; Because if your source of information is the mainstream Western media, your brain space is invaded by all sorts of lie.

You just CANNOT know what is going on. Thus, Abandon it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on March 20, 2022, 06:57:16 PM
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on March 20, 2022, 06:05:42 PMIve long abandoned to follow up-to-date political news whether they are internal about Turkey where I live, or at the international level; Because if your source of information is the mainstream Western media, your brain space is invaded by all sorts of lie.

You just CANNOT know what is going on. Thus, Abandon it.
Understand what you are saying.  What source of info do you use?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SoldierofFortune on March 20, 2022, 07:27:16 PM
Quote from: Mike Cl on March 20, 2022, 06:57:16 PMUnderstand what you are saying.  What source of info do you use?

Politics is not my area of interest.

Actually it is, but I am looking at politics a little high above just to see the bigger picture.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on March 20, 2022, 08:20:59 PM
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on March 20, 2022, 07:27:16 PMPolitics is not my area of interest.

Actually it is, but I am looking at politics a little high above just to see the bigger picture.


That's nice.  But what are your sources????
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SoldierofFortune on March 20, 2022, 08:24:40 PM
Quote from: Mike Cl on March 20, 2022, 08:20:59 PMThat's nice.  But what are your sources????

Virtually all of them is English-language medium sources.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 20, 2022, 11:01:05 PM
Quote from: Cassia on March 20, 2022, 04:03:30 PMPutin's Next Target? The Moldova - Transnistria Issue
Moldova is a distinct possibility (and Putin's Belarusian underling Lukashenko may have accidentally hinted as much (https://thehill.com/policy/international/596409-belarus-president-stands-in-front-of-battle-map-indicating-moldova)).  Probably not coincidentally, Moldova applied for EU membership a week into the invasion of Ukraine.

However, the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) were likely on the chopping block (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/baltic-states-in-europe-fear-putin-has-them-in-his-sights.html) should Russia successfully carve up Ukraine, which miraculously has not come to pass.  It seems crazy to attack the Baltic countries since all three countries are NATO members and Russia would not survive a confrontation with NATO.  NATO is extremely hesitant to war against a nuclear power.  Would Germans and English and French and Americans lay down their lives to protect Lithuanians?  No doubt Putin has wondered this.  They certainly weren't ready to do so when Georgia was under attack.  Or Moldova.  Or Ukraine the first time around.  Would NATO sacrifice one of their own if the alternative was nuclear war?

A hell of a game of chicken, though.  Risky.  Though clearly, Putin's recent actions don't exactly reveal a risk averse psychology.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on March 20, 2022, 11:09:24 PM
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on March 20, 2022, 08:24:40 PMVirtually all of them is English-language medium sources.
'Medium' sources--what's that?  What is your favorite source?

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 21, 2022, 01:47:29 PM
Russian fighter-bomber enters Polish (NATO) airspace (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1505899309526622208?s=20&t=z6Zw8Hkb-88xNzFcERTwKg)

Shortly after Poland raised the possibility of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 21, 2022, 01:53:55 PM
Back atcha (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-captured-russia-missiles-fired-them-back-cnn-2022-3)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 21, 2022, 03:42:48 PM
Well, I was going to share this article from pro-Kremlin sources because, buried in the article... it stated that Russian forces have so far sustained 9,861 casualties and 16,153 injuries - roughly 1/8th of the entire force. This is a massive difference from the 451 the Kremlin are still saying have been killed so far.

However, in the process of posting the article it was taken down and re-written to only list Ukrainian "Nazi" casualties and injuries, which all happened to be under 100... which means the Russian "de-Nazification process", by their own numbers, means they are killing at the very least 9 civilians for every 1 Nazi.

Of course, take any media out of Russia with grains of salt; however these numbers are consistent with what Ukrainian and Western intelligence is reporting, Ukraine reporting 2,000 more deaths and also 4000-some Wagner mercenaries killed.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 21, 2022, 06:30:03 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on March 21, 2022, 03:42:48 PMWell, I was going to share this article from pro-Kremlin sources because, buried in the article... it stated that Russian forces have so far sustained 9,861 casualties and 16,153 injuries - roughly 1/8th of the entire force. This is a massive difference from the 451 the Kremlin are still saying have been killed so far.

However, in the process of posting the article it was taken down and re-written to only list Ukrainian "Nazi" casualties and injuries, which all happened to be under 100... which means the Russian "de-Nazification process", by their own numbers, means they are killing at the very least 9 civilians for every 1 Nazi.

Of course, take any media out of Russia with grains of salt; however these numbers are consistent with what Ukrainian and Western intelligence is reporting, Ukraine reporting 2,000 more deaths and also 4000-some Wagner mercenaries killed.
The dirty oligarch involved in Wagner is Yevgeny Prigozhin who also supported the son of Gaddafi. Wagner, the plausible deniability fun crew took wallop when US fighter jets went in to protect allies in Syria. These oligarchs are just stealing from the Russian people and causing trouble everywhere.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/verabergengruen/heres-what-we-know-about-the-us-airstrikes-that-killed
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 22, 2022, 08:15:18 AM
300 Russian soldiers bravely refuse to follow orders and leave Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/22/7333506/) (with 70 units of equipment, whatever that means)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 22, 2022, 09:12:31 AM
Russia halts tank production due to sanctions (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506113379118764033)

Just as well, their prototype tank was destroyed in Ukraine (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44855/russias-only-prototype-t-80um2-tank-was-destroyed-in-ukraine)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 22, 2022, 12:46:41 PM
Want to do a proper journalistic article (as best one can with no direct access to them) on Wagner Group (forgot what they go by now), because I don't think people realize just how disturbing this organization is... a "non-existent" Russian mercenary force that is named after Adolf Hitler's favorite composer and lead by a guy with Neo-Nazi tattoos. I might try to work on that today when I get home, but it will probably be a few days of research; I want to do it properly.

Until then, here is Russian President Adolf Hitler Vladimir Putin, who is currently waging war on a Jewish-lead country  Nazi State and one of the commanders of the Neo-Nazi Regiment  "non-existent mercenary group made up by the West", Dmitri Utkin.

Thank god Nazi Russia for free and progressive, Democratic Russia saving the day.


(https://i.imgur.com/r6571y2.png)

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 22, 2022, 01:38:27 PM
Yep, if Russia wants to denazify Europe, they should start with Putin.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 22, 2022, 01:40:43 PM
Ukrainian forces seize Russian electronic warfare command post near Kyiv (https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1506310039363112961)

Could potentially make operations in northern Ukraine a LOT easier.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 22, 2022, 01:52:30 PM
Birds of a feather... (https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-north-korea-discuss-developing-relations-2022-03-22/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 22, 2022, 11:10:57 PM
"My father said I'm a traitor who should be shot first" (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/15/my-father-said-im-a-traitor-who-should-be-shot-first-war-in-ukraine-splits-russian-families-a76937)

Quote"My father has been getting the news solely from television for more than 20 years, including watching Solovyov and Kiselyov's programs," Miroshnik said, referring to Russian state television's two most prominent Kremlin-loyal hosts.

"He quite easily believes in various conspiracy theories.

Imagine living in a country whose politics has deteriorated from western-style democracy to such an extent that a powerful fascist and his oligarch-fueled propaganda machine manipulates some people by declaring that real news is "fake" in order to make fake and ideologically-driven conspiracy theories seem equally plausible, stokes sectarian grudges, and splits families right down the middle in a downward spiral of corruption, militarism, and barbarism.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on March 22, 2022, 11:16:59 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 22, 2022, 11:10:57 PM"My father said I'm a traitor who should be shot first" (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/15/my-father-said-im-a-traitor-who-should-be-shot-first-war-in-ukraine-splits-russian-families-a76937)

Imagine living in a country whose politics has deteriorated from western-style democracy to such an extent that a powerful fascist and his oligarch-fueled propaganda machine manipulates some people by declaring that real news is "fake" in order to make fake and ideologically-driven conspiracy theories seem equally plausible, stokes sectarian grudges, and splits families right down the middle in a downward spiral of corruption, militarism, and barbarism.

Yeah, imagine.................
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 23, 2022, 03:27:41 AM
The *roughtimate* livetracker amount the EU has spent on Russian oil since first invading Uka.

https://beyond-coal.eu/russian-fossil-fuel-tracker/
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 23, 2022, 06:18:51 AM
Another one bites the dust...

https://www.newsweek.com/alexei-sharov-russia-ukraine-kyiv-mariupol-general-putin-death-1690834
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 23, 2022, 09:09:31 AM
Ukrainian forces sure have been giving out a lot of promotions throughout this conflict.

I read that it's because the concripts/cadets have such poor training and/or morale that they have to have a commander nearby to operate in any sort of cohesive way.  That weakness can be exploited by a skilled sniper...

Also, some armored units won't advance without artillery fire to throughly soften up the area first.  That can also be exploited.  Hence Ukrainian drones focusing on logistics and artillery targets first. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 23, 2022, 09:16:11 AM
Maybe I spoke too soon.  It seems that that invading Russian forces are giving themselves promotions (https://mobile.twitter.com/OscarNMFranklin/status/1506554660408209409) as well.  Teamwork makes the dream work!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 23, 2022, 09:39:57 AM
Yesterday, Ukrainian air defense took out 11 Russian air units (https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-air-defense-forces-claim-excellent-day-11-shoot-downs-in-24-hours.html): five planes, one helicopter, four drones, and one ballistic missile.  Its most successful day yet.

Just fyi, Russia is notable in having a suspiciously high number of parachute failures (https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/3/10/458359/)... let's just say that Russian aces tend to go in the discard pile.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 23, 2022, 12:39:54 PM
Today on things you love to see...

Russian man throws Molotov cocktail at the Kremlin.

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/tkteis/firebomb_attack_at_kremlin_as_man_seen_throwing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 23, 2022, 04:13:33 PM
Meanwhile, on the other side of that wall... Ukraine caused Covid?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tk59up/members_of_russian_policital_party_ldpr_announced/
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 23, 2022, 06:41:56 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on March 23, 2022, 04:13:33 PMMeanwhile, on the other side of that wall... Ukraine caused Covid?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tk59up/members_of_russian_policital_party_ldpr_announced/
It's no accident that covid tinfoilery and Ukraine-as-the-bad-guy talking points are coming from the same quarters. (https://esoc.princeton.edu/publications/how-russia-china-and-other-governments-use-coronavirus-disinformation-reshape-2)  It makes sense for an adversarial country like Russia to want to spread disinfo far and wide so as to exacerbate covid's economic impact on its rivals and to favor its own vaccine.  Especially if they had dug their hooks into one of the two major political parties in the US (like say, funneling money through the NRA to curry influence), then this disinfo campaign would get amplified and would be able to achieve a life of its own.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 23, 2022, 11:08:55 PM

Essentially, civilians lured a Russian tank convoy into an ambush, Ukrainian forces blew up the tanks with british anti-tank weapons, surviving Russian soldiers briefly took shelter in a local's house (bled all over the place) before running away under the cover of darkness.

An utterly humiliating defeat.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 23, 2022, 11:34:35 PM
(https://preview.redd.it/wmhnmrkkk6p81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=d46151805a8553f1b844dc04fba3c013f9fcc4ec)

 :popcorn:
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 24, 2022, 12:15:40 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 23, 2022, 11:34:35 PM(https://preview.redd.it/wmhnmrkkk6p81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=d46151805a8553f1b844dc04fba3c013f9fcc4ec)

 :popcorn:


I fucking love the Polish... well, everyone over there honestly who are just not having Putin's shit. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 12:20:04 AM
Russia had the audacity to claim that they "saved" Poland from the nazis in WWII.  I'd give Ukraine an extra 5,000 antitank weapons just for that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 24, 2022, 01:46:09 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 12:20:04 AMRussia had the audacity to claim that they "saved" Poland from the nazis in WWII.  I'd give Ukraine an extra 5,000 antitank weapons just for that.

I actually just watched this video for the first time a few days ago and really loved it (love the channel, if anyone loves history and hasn't checked them out... Extra History, Overly Sarcastic Productions and John Green are all awesome educators that approach it in the most "professor-ly" manner - Kings and Generals is good too, though often a little more military tactics related)

If by "saved" the Russians mean "We spent several months literally camped on the opposite shores of the Vistula River watching Polish people be butchered by Nazis until both sides were weak enough that we could swoop in and claim it as our own" then... sure, I guess they did that.

Also ignores a few massacres of the Red Army saying they "saved" Poland, but you know... those are details, and details are not relevant to reality.

Edit -  Cant get the video to work on the forum, but it's Extra History - The Warsaw Uprising, about 11 minutes long and goes into the Polish resistance in the final days of Nazi-occupied Poland. They also have a 30+ minute series on the Polish Resistance, watched that a few years ago and really enjoyed it )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BjIYKq4CVk&t=162s
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 08:42:48 AM
In Moscow, a woman was fined for a poster that read "fascism will not pass". (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506932701479190532?s=20&t=Cb_pqa9F-lCm85sP-Un6uA)  The court ruled that the poster expressed a "negative attitude towards Russian Armed Forces".

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/81029563/so-you-agree.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on March 24, 2022, 09:45:48 AM
Quote from: Shiranu on March 24, 2022, 01:46:09 AMI actually just watched this video for the first time a few days ago and really loved it (love the channel, if anyone loves history and hasn't checked them out... Extra History, Overly Sarcastic Productions and John Green are all awesome educators that approach it in the most "professor-ly" manner - Kings and Generals is good too, though often a little more military tactics related)

If by "saved" the Russians mean "We spent several months literally camped on the opposite shores of the Vistula River watching Polish people be butchered by Nazis until both sides were weak enough that we could swoop in and claim it as our own" then... sure, I guess they did that.

Also ignores a few massacres of the Red Army saying they "saved" Poland, but you know... those are details, and details are not relevant to reality.

Edit -  Cant get the video to work on the forum, but it's Extra History - The Warsaw Uprising, about 11 minutes long and goes into the Polish resistance in the final days of Nazi-occupied Poland. They also have a 30+ minute series on the Polish Resistance, watched that a few years ago and really enjoyed it )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BjIYKq4CVk&t=162s

The last paragraph in the Wiki article on the Katyn massacre talks about recent Russian attempts at revising history. This includes changing the official text of the memorial sites within Russia to say "Polish officers were shot by the Hitlerites in 1941." This despite the fact that they had already admitted guilt in the 80s and 90s. The current story is that the letter signed by Stalin authorizing the execution of more than 25,000 Poles, including most of the Polish military officer corps, and the rest of the 135 volumes of evidence supporting Russian culpability in these events were forgeries.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on March 24, 2022, 10:03:00 AM

the youtube tag doesn't like the &t=162s
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 11:09:50 AM
Russian warship destroyed (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337), two other vessels damaged.

That ship can fit up to 20 tanks.  I want to believe that it was loaded to the gills when it went down.

And Ukraine's about to get more antiship missiles (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-24/u-s-and-allies-aiming-to-provide-anti-ship-missiles-to-kyiv-official-says) courtesy of the US and its allies.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 24, 2022, 01:34:37 PM
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on March 24, 2022, 09:45:48 AMThe last paragraph in the Wiki article on the Katyn massacre talks about recent Russian attempts at revising history. This includes changing the official text of the memorial sites within Russia to say "Polish officers were shot by the Hitlerites in 1941." This despite the fact that they had already admitted guilt in the 80s and 90s. The current story is that the letter signed by Stalin authorizing the execution of more than 25,000 Poles, including most of the Polish military officer corps, and the rest of the 135 volumes of evidence supporting Russian culpability in these events were forgeries.
Oof. Not surprised, but still surprised. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 03:45:20 PM
Ukraine has more tanks now than before the invasion (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-ukrainian-army-has-more-tanks-now-than-when-the-war-began-because-it-keeps-capturing-them-from-russia/ar-AAVryKz?ocid=msedgntp)

Ukraine
Lost: 74
Captured: 117
Net gain: 43

Russia
Lost: 274
Captured: 37
Net loss: 237
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 11:01:34 PM
EU rejects Russian demand of rubles for natural gas (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/europe-rejects-putin-s-demand-for-natural-gas-payments-in-rubles-1.1742588)

So...let me get this straight:

* Russia wants to sell natural gas to Europe and Europeans were willing to buy.
* Russia has a weak, sanction-battered economy and could really, really use the money.
* Russia decides to impose a new condition to the transaction: payment must be in rubles only.  This would make EU countries artificially inflate the ruble, effectively reversing their own sanctions.
* Naturally, Europeans say no, so now Russia is missing out on desperately-needed money in order to hike EU heating bills this...April?

Is there some 7d chess thing that I'm missing or did Russia just further sanction itself?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 25, 2022, 01:14:15 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 11:01:34 PMEU rejects Russian demand of rubles for natural gas (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/europe-rejects-putin-s-demand-for-natural-gas-payments-in-rubles-1.1742588)

So...let me get this straight:

* Russia wants to sell natural gas to Europe and Europeans were willing to buy.
* Russia has a weak, sanction-battered economy and could really, really use the money.
* Russia decides to impose a new condition to the transaction: payment must be in rubles only.  This would make EU countries artificially inflate the ruble, effectively reversing their own sanctions.
* Naturally, Europeans say no, so now Russia is missing out on desperately-needed money in order to hike EU heating bills this...April?

Is there some 7d chess thing that I'm missing or did Russia just further sanction itself?
Now that I think about it, I have never heard anybody mention anything about the value of the ruble. I would imagine the oligarchs and Putin himself are all-in on the $US and Bitcoin.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on March 25, 2022, 04:52:17 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 11:01:34 PMIs there some 7d chess thing that I'm missing or did Russia just further sanction itself?
I'm not going to presume to know anything about all of this, because it often seems like economic thinking goes over our heads, which is odd because Economics 101 in college was a very straight forward discipline, and easy to understand.  But by the time experts and philosophers, are done with it, no one seems to even know which way is up.  I think that's because economics probably falls under the umbrella of politics, rather than science or logic, and it's primary benefit to society is that it can say anything you say it says, and blame anyone you want when it doesn't work right.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on March 25, 2022, 08:55:19 AM
The way I heard it, if one lined all the economists up end-to-end, they'd still point in different directions.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on March 25, 2022, 01:07:17 PM
Russia considering accepting Bitcoin for its oil, gas exports as sanctions stiffen (https://13wham.com/news/nation-world/russia-considering-accepting-bitcoin-for-its-oil-gas-exports-as-sanctions-stiffen-crypto-cryptocurrency-ukraine-russian-energy-duma-pavel-zavalny)

Boy, I hope they do. We know how crypto works.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 25, 2022, 07:54:22 PM
Russian troops run over their own commander with a tank after suffering heavy loses.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-attack-own-commanding-officer-after-suffering-heavy-losses/ar-AAVuUv2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1d093a105ed44d78918f523c398c7358 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-attack-own-commanding-officer-after-suffering-heavy-losses/ar-AAVuUv2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1d093a105ed44d78918f523c398c7358)

I uh... I think they might be getting tired of being over there.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 25, 2022, 08:46:03 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on March 25, 2022, 07:54:22 PMI uh... I think they might be getting tired of being over there.
Not tired, tracked :P
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 25, 2022, 11:43:08 PM
Ukraine Says Russia More Open to Talks Because 'We Put Them in Their Place' (https://www.newsweek.com/podolyak-zelensky-ukraine-russia-abc-months-1691777)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 26, 2022, 12:39:20 AM
Kherson, formerly firmly in Russian hands, is now contested territory (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/599799-pentagon-russia-has-lost-partial-control-of-first-captured-ukrainian-city)

There's a chance it could be returned to Ukrainian control very soon.  It has huge strategic significance - it would block Russian land forces from advancing on Odesa as well as allow Ukrainian forces to strike at russian forces coming from Crimea or russian forces to the east.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/FD3C/production/_123882846_ukraine_counters_areas_map_24_03_22_640x2-nc.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on March 26, 2022, 08:42:25 AM
Russian soldiers appear to be fixing makeshift cages to the turrets of their tanks in a crude effort to protect themselves against Ukraine's anti-tank missiles.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-soldiers-appear-fixing-makeshift-103343532.html

"Some Russian tanks seen with makeshift cages attached to them to protect against anti-tank missiles.

An expert told Insider that the cages are futile against modern weapons like the Javelin and NLAW.

The cages also disadvantage Russian tanks by increasing their visibility and adding weight.

Russian forces appear to be attaching makeshift metal cages to the tops of their tanks in Ukraine in a crude effort to protect themselves against anti-tank missiles.

Analysts say the cages are inadequate protection against the modern weapons used by Ukraine and demonstrate the Russian military's lack of preparedness for war."

Is the impossible happening--Touted Russian Army not all that good and not only being defeated but pushed back????

Love this quote: The saying always was that Russia has a large, modern army. We discovered that the modern part isn't very large and the large part isn't very modern. And the large part is increasingly getting smaller," Crump said.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 26, 2022, 09:42:36 AM
QuoteAn expert told Insider that the cages are futile against modern weapons like the Javelin and NLAW.

The cages also disadvantage Russian tanks by increasing their visibility and adding weight.
Never interfere when your enemy makes a mistake.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on March 26, 2022, 10:16:54 AM
I have to admit, I didn't expect the Ukraine to put up so much resistance. I guess people don't like it so much when they're minding their own business and some foreign country wants to charge in and take their stuff.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 26, 2022, 10:34:54 AM
Quote from: SGOS on March 26, 2022, 10:16:54 AMI have to admit, I didn't expect the Ukraine to put up so much resistance. I guess people don't like it so much when they're minding their own business and some foreign country wants to charge in and take their stuff.
Russia telegraphed its invasion so far in advance (likely to intimidate and cause panic) that the Ukrainians had plenty of time to train and arm themselves (https://www.npr.org/2022/01/19/1073792421/ukraine-russia-attack-military) and the US was more than happy to provide (https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/10/ukraine-us-trains-army-west-fight-east/141577/).  Ironically, the only people who didn't know about the invasion were the invading troops themselves.


TL;DR: Russia telegraphed a haymaker and got kicked in the balls mid-swing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 26, 2022, 12:27:04 PM
Another Russian general eliminated (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538)

That makes seven.

This one was at an airbase near Kherson.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on March 26, 2022, 01:21:33 PM
Are they targeting generals?  And why aren't those guys back at HQ making plans?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on March 26, 2022, 01:23:16 PM
They're trying to get away from Putin?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 26, 2022, 02:46:23 PM
Quote from: SGOS on March 26, 2022, 01:21:33 PMAre they targeting generals?  And why aren't those guys back at HQ making plans?
Yes.  One of the many benefits of unecrypted communications. ^_^

Ukraine intelligence estimated twenty generals at the start of the invasion.  Somewhat less now, lol.

Some have been eliminated at command posts somewhat near the frontlines.  Some pretty much at the frontlines.  Apparently, it's a combination of poor troop morale and poor command&control.

Also, for some reason, they really like being near airfields.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 26, 2022, 05:40:42 PM
It seems that there is a see-saw technology arms race between tanks and anti-tank weapons and right now the tanks are losing. Turkish leopard2 tanks recently got hammered pretty hard by ISIL so it's not just Russian tanks.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 26, 2022, 07:23:12 PM
Quote from: Cassia on March 26, 2022, 05:40:42 PMIt seems that there is a see-saw technology arms race between tanks and anti-tank weapons and right now the tanks are losing. Turkish leopard2 tanks recently got hammered pretty hard by ISIL so it's not just Russian tanks.
Yeah, I think in many way tanks are outdated; to probably leave out way too much nuance, warfare has heavily shifted more towards tactical operations instead of all-out warfare... unfortunately instead of getting with the times, the Russians are going backwards... increasing indiscriminate bombing to just kill everyone instead.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on March 26, 2022, 08:33:44 PM
it seems to me that tanks have improved since WWII--but not by as much as anti-tank weapons.  Not nearly as much.  Throw in drones (wish the nato countries would send a bunch of warthogs--slow and low flying aircraft that can tear tanks apart) and tanks are now sitting ducks.  Hand held anti-tank weapons are now really much more technologically superior to tanks these days.  Apparently the Russians have lost 10% of their tanks and it seems that those losses will increase, not slow down. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 26, 2022, 08:51:04 PM
Drones really are gamechangers.  A couple guys with decent binoculars and a relatively low-cost drone can take out a tank/apc.  In terms of cost, there's no contest - a russian t-80 costs $3 million and a switchblade drone costs $6,000.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on March 27, 2022, 07:44:59 AM
Tanks are probably good for the effect of shock and awe, especially in the face of unarmed resistance.  I would think Russia would have more updated technology that they aren't using.  Maybe they are just getting rid of all of their outdated military junk.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on March 27, 2022, 07:46:26 AM
What's that saying about military powers making the mistake of training for the last war?  Oh wait.  That is the saying.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 27, 2022, 11:18:25 AM
Quote from: SGOS on March 27, 2022, 07:44:59 AMTanks are probably good for the effect of shock and awe, especially in the face of unarmed resistance.  I would think Russia would have more updated technology that they aren't using.  Maybe they are just getting rid of all of their outdated military junk.
Apparently, the guy in charge of modernizing the military had to resign for some reason or another and his replacement went for much more modest goals.  Add to that the rampant corruption and some funds were "accidentally" "lost".

They burned through much of their modernized tech in the first month of the conflict.  They're actually getting rid of the outdated junk right now, de-mothballing ancient tanks and using missiles that have a high chance of being duds.  It's basically like using tiny rocks instead of bullets at this point.  Not an effective strat.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 27, 2022, 04:02:12 PM
Russia's legendary Stalingrad tank division wiped out by Ukrainian forces (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F03%2F27%2Fukraine-bounced-back-embarrass-russia-recapture-bombarded-cities%2F)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on March 27, 2022, 04:34:27 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 27, 2022, 04:02:12 PMRussia's legendary Stalingrad tank division wiped out by Ukrainian forces (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F03%2F27%2Fukraine-bounced-back-embarrass-russia-recapture-bombarded-cities%2F)
Stunning. Just Stunning!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on March 27, 2022, 06:11:30 PM
Very, very little positive in this video other than seeing the strength of both the Ukrainian people and their warriors. It's fairly graphic, gloomy and depressing overall though... but if you want to see what Ukraine looks like further out from Kyiv (while still not being a fraction as horrific as what places like Mariupol are going through)... this is a good video.


Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 29, 2022, 01:15:03 AM
Irpin liberated! (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-forces-retake-control-town-irpin-says-local-mayor-2022-03-28/)

Kyiv gets even more breathing room.

Edit - Here's a handy map (https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/014B/production/_123913300_ukraine_kyiv_close_up-640x2-nc.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 29, 2022, 01:27:45 AM
Russia no longer seeking to "denazify" Ukraine (https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626) (kill existing leadership and replace with dictator-approved puppets)

It is worrying that Russia insists that Ukraine not form any defensive pact with any other countries.  If Russia no longer wants to invade Ukraine, that wouldn't be an issue.  And if they still do, all the more reason to do so!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 29, 2022, 01:49:33 AM
Turkish presidential spokesman says Russian demands of Crimea and Donbas are not realistic (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-28-22/h_51680a8ac00d3b885c3c7ec5ae9d526b)

Quote"These are the red lines for the Ukrainians in the Crimea and Donbas, and rightly so, because they pertain directly to Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. We have not recognized the annexation of Crimea as, like the rest of the world, even China has not recognized the annexation of Crimea ...They [the Russians] should really come up with some other ideas,"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on March 29, 2022, 12:03:03 PM
Turns out Russian soldiers stirred up all that Chernobyl radioactive dust and didn't take any precautions while breathing it all in. Damn. Will Smith slapped the wrong guy.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 29, 2022, 07:32:07 PM
Russia is withdrawing from the Kyiv area. (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1508855068531040267)

But don't break out the champagne, they're likely withdrawing in order to regroup to the east while the south goes back on the offensive.

This is likely due to the fact that Belarus has not invaded and Russian forces in the north are stretched too thin to attack Kyiv.

This regrouping effort could put already besieged cities to the east and south in even greater peril.

Also, Russia does not appear to be taking the peace talks very seriously, likely intentionally drawing out the peace process while the Russian military consolidates territory that it's unlikely to part with at the bargaining table. Russia can then call for a ceasefire at its leisure, build up a larger warchest, and because Ukraine is still without a defensive pact, Russia can invade again with greater peparedness and with greater success.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on March 29, 2022, 08:03:32 PM
Ukraine warns negotiators not to eat or drink at Russia talks over poison concerns.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-warns-negotiators-not-eat-184852778.html

Putin will do absolutely anything he wants--and this is one of his favorite things to do. 
'Ukraine is warning its negotiators not to eat or drink anything during peace talks with Russian counterparts amid growing concerns over the potential for poison.

"I advise anyone going for negotiations with Russia not to eat or drink anything, preferably avoid touching surfaces," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview with a state media outlet on Tuesday, according to The Washington Post.'

Roman Abramovich
Roman Abramovich

Dmytro Kuleba
Tue, March 29, 2022, 11:48 AM·1 min read
In this article:

Roman Abramovich
Roman Abramovich
Russian-Israeli billionaire businessman

Dmytro Kuleba
Ukrainian diplomat
Ukrainian soldiers chat in the front-line position close to Kharkiv, Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers chat in the front-line position close to Kharkiv, Ukraine.


Ukraine is warning its negotiators not to eat or drink anything during peace talks with Russian counterparts amid growing concerns over the potential for poison.

"I advise anyone going for negotiations with Russia not to eat or drink anything, preferably avoid touching surfaces," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview with a state media outlet on Tuesday, according to The Washington Post.

"Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and several Ukrainian negotiators had reportedly shown symptoms of possible poisoning from a previous meeting.

Abramovich along with senior Ukrainian negotiators showed symptoms of red eyes, constant and painful tearing and peeling skin on their faces and hands. Officials have said that Abramovich fully recovered from his symptoms."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 30, 2022, 01:11:35 AM
Yep.  Poisoned chocolate.  Abramovich went blind for hours.

It goes without saying to not eat anything you didn't pack yourself, because poison is Putin's-go-to.  A woman's weapon, as they say, though either a masculine or feminine bearing would be a step up from what Putin is - a craven villain, doomed to a craven villain's life then a craven villain's death.

And speaking of craven, Putin is holed up in his fuhrerbunker near the Urals.  Meanwhile, Zelensky walks around Kyiv, consoling the wounded, addressing the world, and decorating heroes.  Putin has no heroes under his command and never will.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 30, 2022, 06:51:55 PM
"On Wednesday in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions, the Ukrainian military destroyed 10 tanks, 18 units of armored and 13 units of motor vehicles, as well as 15 artillery systems." - Source (https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/30/7335894/)

Ukrainian forces capture an advanced air defense/command vehicle (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44981/ukraine-captured-one-of-russias-newest-air-defense-systems)

Ukrainian forces shoot down three Russian jets (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/30/7335845/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on March 31, 2022, 05:35:53 PM

The part about Ukraine's untapped oil/gas reserves, especially near Crimea and eastern Ukraine, was particularly interesting.

(https://congressionaldish.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Ukraine%20shale%20formations.png)

(https://medianewsglobalvoices.files.wordpress.com/2022/01/20210717_wom963.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 01, 2022, 09:08:55 AM
Ukrainian soldiers casually clear Russian minefield (https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ttng8v/ukrainian_military_clear_the_road_from_mines/)

They literally just slide them off to the side with their feet.  Apparently, they're anti-tank mines and won't explode unless significant force is placed upon them.  And yes, earlier, civilians were driving their cars down the road, weaving between the mines like they're on Jackass.

I can't tell if these people are badasses or the russian invaders are just colossally incompetent.  Probably a little of both.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 01, 2022, 09:25:34 AM
Australia (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/australia-send-armored-vehicles-ukraine-request-83801670) and Germany (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-okays-sale-former-gdr-infantry-fighting-vehicles-ukraine-2022-04-01/) to donate armored vehicles to Ukraine

West will also send artillery (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/31/west-to-send-more-lethal-aid-to-ukraine-uk-defence-minister-says)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 01, 2022, 09:49:03 AM
A pair of Ukrainian attack helicopters conduct nighttime raid on RUSSIAN SOIL, attack an oil depot, burning 16 tanker trucks (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/01/ukrainian-attack-helicopters-just-slipped-into-russia-and-blew-up-a-fuel-depot/?sh=3201ebc8738e)

The material losses aren't exactly game-changing.  But the morale damage, the idea that Russian forces aren't safe even in Russian territory, that Ukraine is not some partially-pacified doormat barely staving off Russian attacks on its own soil, but a well-equipped and well-trained military and they're often on the offensive.  They're highly skilled and pissed off and they're coming for you wherever you are and sooner or later, they will find you.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 01, 2022, 09:50:25 AM
I just hope it gets there in time to do some good.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on April 01, 2022, 12:49:58 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 01, 2022, 09:49:03 AMA pair of Ukrainian attack helicopters conduct nighttime raid on RUSSIAN SOIL, burn oil depot and brew up 16 tanks (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/01/ukrainian-attack-helicopters-just-slipped-into-russia-and-blew-up-a-fuel-depot/?sh=3201ebc8738e)

The material losses aren't exactly game-changing, you can hardly blink without Russia losing 16 tanks.  But the morale damage, the idea that Russian forces aren't safe even in Russian territory, that Ukraine is not some partially-pacified doormat barely staving off Russian attacks on its own soil, but a well-equipped and well-trained military and they're often on the offensive.  They're highly skilled and pissed off and they're coming for you wherever you are and sooner or later, they will find you.

Plus, you know, it´s done at about exactly the time that putin and his cronies declare that they´ll be ´lowering hostilities´ to kiev because the first part of demilitarizing ukraine is supposedly over.
Then, as they are pulling back forces from the North because they actually can´t keep them fed and fueled and motivated; bam russia gets hit in a strategic target.

It´s a humiliation of the worst degree flying in the face of putin´s propaganda.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 01, 2022, 12:52:58 PM
I saw elsewhere that Ukraine is alleged to have bombed a fuel depot 20 miles inside Russia. If true, it's sauce for the goose, afaiac.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 02, 2022, 08:53:33 AM
US to donate Soviet tanks to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-will-work-with-allies-transfer-soviet-made-tanks-ukraine-ny-times-2022-04-02/)

Most likely T-72

The Allies are looking to send tanks and artillery to Ukraine because Russia plans to consolidate its hold on eastern and southern Ukraine and permanently occupy those areas.  The Ukrainian counteroffensive needs armor and artillery and planes to drive them out.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 02, 2022, 09:02:05 AM
Russian forces no longer threaten Kyiv (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/1/2089450/-Ukraine-update-Russian-military-presence-northwest-west-and-east-of-Kyiv-has-ceased-to-exist)

Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel now firmly in Ukrainian control
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 02, 2022, 10:39:17 AM
In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces destroyed (https://t.me/KyivIndependent_official/2439) 8 tanks, 44 armored vehicles, 16 military vehicles, 10 artillery, and 3 drones.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 02, 2022, 10:53:43 AM
Near Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces shoot a Russian helicopter with an anti-tank missile (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3446478-ukrainian-paratroopers-destroy-two-russian-mi8-helicopters.html), which crashes into another Russian helicopter, destroying both helicopters.

Two-for-one special!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 03, 2022, 08:44:22 AM
Two Russian battalions quit war (https://mobile.twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1510484768638574597?s=20&t=pesdDhpjrRwrmTmFm762Rg)

Not sure on the exact numbers, but we're talking hundreds of soldiers simply returning back to Russia.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 03, 2022, 10:15:26 AM
Russia losing so much equipment in Ukraine that weapons monitors can't keep up (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-ukraine-military-equipment-losses-b2046501.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 03, 2022, 02:05:15 PM
Putler
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 03, 2022, 02:48:36 PM
I don't like talking about this stuff, but Ukrainian forces liberating russian-ravaged areas have uncovered horrific crimes against humanity.

In Bucha, all males aged 18-60 that they could get their hands on were mass executed.  Killed dogs for fun, killed children, tortured both adults and children, etc.  Other stuff that I can't even go into here.  If you can think of it, they've done it, and more besides.

In fact, the parallels to the nazis are too obvious to ignore.  And apparently, this was planned from the start.

Suffice it to say that I no longer consider Russian invaders to be manipulated/used by Putin and therefore pitiable.  I consider them to be active participants in crimes against humanity and whatever dark fate awaits them in Ukraine is richly deserved.  Only by surrendering to Ukrainian forces or leaving Ukraine do they prove their humanity.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 03, 2022, 02:58:36 PM
QuoteSuffice it to say that I no longer consider Russian invaders to be manipulated/used by Putin and therefore pitiable.  I consider them to be active participants in crimes against humanity and whatever fate awaits them in Ukraine is richly deserved.  Only by surrendering to Ukrainian forces or leaving Ukraine do they prove their humanity.


Yeah, I haven't been in thread as much because what's being uncovered is really fucking disturbing even to me. Poland is saying they want American nukes on their soil, and I don't blame them... these are roving barbarian hordes, the same that brought down so many Western empires before and that countries like Poland and Ukraine have saved us from multiple times as well.


This is what average Russians think of Ukrainians - fuck even the soldiers, normal people in Russia are just as racist and disgusting.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tv36sp/heartbreaking_words_from_random_russians/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

Across Europe today, pro-Russian rallies blocked streets as well.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 03, 2022, 10:53:56 PM
Not being greeted with flowers drove Putin crazy (https://www.rawstory.com/putin-2657085652/)

QuoteAt first what he wanted was to change the power in Kyiv, put in his puppet and was expecting that this would be met with flowers thrown in the streets by Ukrainian people. When this did not happen he went crazy. The fact that the people in Kharkiv did not meet him with flowers, it not only just angered him, I really think it drove him literally insane."

Oh, but there'll be plenty of flowers one day.  Great fields of them all across Ukraine.  Men and women will laugh and cheer among them on the day that this wretched dictator dies.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 04, 2022, 12:51:03 AM
2 Russian soldiers die from poisoned food/drink provided by civilians (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-troops-killed-by-poisoned-food-alcohol-ukrainian-officials-2022-4?r=US&IR=T)

Might also be a good idea to "accidentally" leave a couple bottles of poisoned vodka where Russian troops are sure to find it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Blackleaf on April 04, 2022, 01:26:28 AM
Fuck Putin with an extra spiky pineapple. I was hoping one of Russia's elite would have Putin executed by now, in response to all the sanctions and inconveniences they have to put up with. If Russia won't take care of him themselves, someone needs to do it for them. Maybe drop Putin a Fat Man as a present.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on April 04, 2022, 07:30:39 AM
I think Putin has gone nuts, as often happens when an unstable person is handed vast amounts of power. This could end in Mutually insured destruction, one final act of suicidal self glorification followed by mostly nothing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 04, 2022, 09:29:14 AM
(https://i.redd.it/petrzlwn3ir81.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 04, 2022, 12:25:35 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on April 03, 2022, 02:58:36 PMYeah, I haven't been in thread as much because what's being uncovered is really fucking disturbing even to me. Poland is saying they want American nukes on their soil, and I don't blame them... these are roving barbarian hordes, the same that brought down so many Western empires before and that countries like Poland and Ukraine have saved us from multiple times as well.


This is what average Russians think of Ukrainians - fuck even the soldiers, normal people in Russia are just as racist and disgusting.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tv36sp/heartbreaking_words_from_random_russians/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

Across Europe today, pro-Russian rallies blocked streets as well.

I had a Russian-born defector-professor as a lab instructor who was married to a Ukrainian defector. He used to always say "life is cheap for Russians". I understand better what he meant now. He also said our school had better lab equipment than the Russian space agency. I think that so many Russians are conditioned to dictatorship that they just can't advance. The younger ones maybe understand a little better about how bad it is.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 04, 2022, 03:24:45 PM
Amongst other things...

Quote75.5% of Russians approve of the idea of a military invasion of the next country and believe that it should be Poland.

We are really suppose to believe this barbarian horde is going to stop at Ukraine? Really? 

https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

QuoteDenazification is necessary when a considerable number of population (very likely most of it) has been subjected to the Nazi regime and engaged into its agenda. That is, when the "good people — bad government" hypothesis does not apply. Recognizing this fact forms the backbone of the denazification policy and all its measures, while the fact itself constitutes its subject.
Quote...

They are all equally complicit in the horrendous violence towards civilians, equally complicit in the genocide of the Russian people, and they don't comply with the laws and customs of war. War criminals and active Nazis must be punished in such a way as to provide an example and a demonstration. A total lustration must be conducted. All organizations involved in Nazi actions must be eliminated and prohibited. However, besides the highest ranks, a significant number of common people are also guilty of being passive Nazis and Nazi accomplices. They supported the Nazi authorities and pandered to them. A just punishment for this part of the population can only be possible through bearing the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system, waged as carefully and sparingly as possible relates civilians. The further denazification of this bulk of the population will take the form of re-education through ideological repressions (suppression) of Nazi paradigms and a harsh censorship not only in the political sphere but also in the spheres of culture and education.


I would call them orcs as many have, but that would be frankly an insult to orcs.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 04, 2022, 03:59:44 PM
France looking closer and closer to electing the anti-NATO, anti-Immigrant, pro-Putin le Pen this coming election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/world/europe/french-election-le-pen-macron.html

I am so, so, so fucking glad I didn't move to Europe when I had the chance... I really bought into this, "Ho ho ho, we Europeans are so civilized unlike you apish Americans" bullshit they sold when they support war criminals far worse than us.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 04, 2022, 07:14:51 PM
Serbia and Hungary just elected Putin bootlickers (https://www.npr.org/2022/04/04/1090835656/orban-vucic-hungary-serbia-reelection-pro-putin-russia), so don't expect them to spring to Ukraine's defense, though they didn't have much of an impact either way.

Just bear it in mind as future sanctions targets (aiding and abetting crimes against humanity)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 04, 2022, 07:28:59 PM
On the flip side of the coin, Allied countries are stepping up sanctions in the wake of the nazi-like massacre.

The US and EU are preparing to expand sanctions. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-eu-and-germany-preparing-more-sanctions-against-russia-after-evidence-of-atrocities-near-kyiv-11649032387)

Lithuania is boycotting all Russian gas and expelled the pro-genocide Russian ambassador

Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are set to close all roads to Russia/Belarus (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1510929257891041285)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on April 04, 2022, 07:38:18 PM
Am not a war monger in any sense; war is generally not a good thing.  But I do wish the US would step up and offer more in the way of supplies, weapons, and yes, personnel.  We seem to easily get into wars with Iraq and such--businesses love it!  I guess business does not like it for the Ukraine.  We have a chance to make a stand against Nazi-like dictators; but then we don't even make a stand against our own nazi-like leaders.  Lately it seems that the line between nazi-like politicians and 'democratic' ones is blurring.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 04, 2022, 08:48:16 PM
QuoteLately it seems that the line between nazi-like politicians and 'democratic' ones is blurring.


Perhaps Hitler was on to something; maybe this really is the basic nature of man.

Where he saw that as a glorious thing, I thought sane people viewed it as fucking horrifying. 

I'm starting to think I thought wrong.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 04, 2022, 09:11:29 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on April 04, 2022, 08:48:16 PMPerhaps Hitler was on to something; maybe this really is the basic nature of man.

Where he saw that as a glorious thing, I thought sane people viewed it as fucking horrifying.

I'm starting to think I thought wrong.


The receptivity of the great masses is very limited, their intelligence is small, but their power of forgetting is enormous. In consequence of these facts, all effective propaganda must be limited to a very few points and must harp on these in slogans until the last member of the public understands what you want him to understand by your slogan.
-Adolf Hitler
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on April 05, 2022, 05:35:32 AM
Bucha Massacre is still not widely enough heard I guess though. That number will rise too. And I pretty much doubt it's just one.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 05, 2022, 10:05:47 AM
Oops!  Russian air force bombs russian ground forces (https://www.dialog.ua/war/249349_1649152568)

QuoteAccording to information received, Russian bombers carried out a night flight and could not distinguish the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Russian occupying troops by dropping bombs on the positions of the Russian military. Intelligence was able to establish that after receiving heavy losses due to the bombing of the commander of the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Colonel Andrey Kurbanov appealed to the commander of the Eastern Military District, Colonel General Alexander Chaiko with the refusal of air support for the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Requested no more air support, lol
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 05, 2022, 01:35:45 PM
Ukrainian forces use captured thermobaric rocket vehicle to annihilate russian forces near Izium (https://mobile.twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1511337378035679244?s=21&t=kykTSu5JHRXAWEvksDLNXQ)

Extra crispy orcs
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 05, 2022, 01:41:06 PM
Lone Ukrainian tank distracted and delayed Russian convoy long enough for artillery to partially destroy it, triggering a retreat (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1511382917712429056)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 05, 2022, 09:50:52 PM
The first few minutes are on the Bucha Massacre so skip that if you don't want to hear about it again, but at 4:10 he starts talking and showing images about the living conditions of these Russian conscripts; that they live in parts of the world where a lot of the things they are looting (toilets, T.V.s, radios, washing machines, etc) are things that they either don't have or, just as likely, have never even seen in their lives.

Literally a 10th-world country.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 05, 2022, 11:04:14 PM
I knew Russia lagged a bit on the ol' tech race, but I didn't think it was quite so bad.  I mean, they have Instagram influencers and teens with cell phones and the Moscow metro is nicer than any subway system I've ever seen (I've only seen D.C. and Atlanta), so they're not North Korea level.  Though with these ever-ramping sanctions (and ever-increasing war crimes), they might get there someday.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 05, 2022, 11:17:19 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 05, 2022, 11:04:14 PMI knew Russia lagged a bit on the ol' tech race, but I didn't think it was quite so bad.  I mean, they have Instagram influencers and teens with cell phones and the Moscow metro is nicer than any subway system I've ever seen (I've only seen D.C. and Atlanta), so they're not North Korea level.  Though with these ever-ramping sanctions (and ever-increasing war crimes), they might get there someday.
Eh, I think they maybe are North Korea level... just on a much larger scale. The levels of brainwashing are disturbingly cultish like NK's and Moskva is sorta the Pyongyang of the old Soviet "Republic" - a gilded husk of a fortress ruling over vast expanses of wasted potential. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 06, 2022, 02:06:38 AM
For a pariah state, North Korea sure has quite a few like-minded countries.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 06, 2022, 10:31:45 AM
Glory to the heroes:  Meet Charcoal (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-sniper-lady-death-charcoal-b2051925.html)

QuoteIn a message shared by the Ukrainian army, Charcoal vowed to punish Moscow's forces. "We must take them all out!" she said.

"These people are not human beings. Even the fascists were not as vile as these orcs. We must defeat them," she added.

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/04/05/01/56225109-0-image-a-10_1649118827728.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 06, 2022, 02:05:46 PM
Hungary's Pro-Putin regime says it has no problem paying for Russian gas with rubles (https://www.businessinsider.com/hungary-leader-orban-breaks-ranks-eu-pay-russian-gas-rubles-2022-4)

Gotta feed that russian war machine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 06, 2022, 06:15:51 PM
Welp, pretty sure the cost of Russian tanks and other military gear to their arms-export market will have to be discounted in the future. Just saw a report that an anti-aircraft missile battery was taken out by a drone. Geez. Russia is the world's second-largest arms exporter after the US.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 06, 2022, 11:49:58 PM
In positive news, the new war map looks much, much better for Ukraine:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPsqx9uWUAElhOh?format=jpg&name=small)

No more convoys to the NW and east of Kyiv.  No more battle for Sumy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sumy).  No more siege of Chernihiv (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Chernihiv).

Just from the looks of things, Kharkiv and Kherson are going to be the news a LOT in the near future. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 09:17:47 AM
US to lend-lease military equipment to Ukraine (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/06/senate-unanimously-approves-lend-lease-00023668)

We've only ever used this policy once before: against Hitler.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 09:24:54 AM
Friends like these:   Belarusian border guards killed by Russian landmines (https://mobile.twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1511982561249091593)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on April 07, 2022, 09:39:18 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 09:17:47 AMUS to lend-lease military equipment to Ukraine (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/06/senate-unanimously-approves-lend-lease-00023668)

We've only ever used this policy once before: against Hitler.
This sounds like the right track.  I hope we go all in and don't start fucking the thing up, as our leaders often do.  This Putin Puttering shit has got to stop.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 10:09:00 AM
It's a positive step and also an indicator of Ukraine's chances: we wouldn't land-lease unless we believed the receiving country could win the war, and Ukrainian forces absolutely can win.

Russia has regrouped its forces and is proceeding more cautiously now, but it has already lost a lot of its equipment and skilled personnel.  Throwing more tanks and cadets at Ukraine does not solve its problems.  Especially since the Ukrainians are constantly buoyed by new shipments of aid.  They now have Switchblade drones and the training to use them, so any future Russian convoys are in for a big surprise.

Still, this isn't a done deal for Ukraine - they need more armor and artillery to retake their cities.  If the US expedites this, they absolutely could retake every last square kilometer of their territory.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 10:31:32 AM
Russia threatens Finland, says they would destroy their country if it joins NATO (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-finland-dzhabarov-ukraine-stoltenberg-nato-retaliation-1695854)

Russia threatens Japan, says it has the right to annex Hokkaido (https://regnum-ru.translate.goog/news/polit/3554235.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Blackleaf on April 07, 2022, 11:32:45 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 10:31:32 AMRussia threatens Finland, says they would destroy their country if it joins NATO (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-finland-dzhabarov-ukraine-stoltenberg-nato-retaliation-1695854)

Russia threatens Japan, says it has the right to annex Hokkaido (https://regnum-ru.translate.goog/news/polit/3554235.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

They're getting desperate, huh? Bet Japan is shaking and crying from halfway across the world. Shaking and crying of laughter.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 12:26:01 PM
Quote from: Blackleaf on April 07, 2022, 11:32:45 AMThey're getting desperate, huh? Bet Japan is shaking and crying from halfway across the world. Shaking and crying of laughter.
Japan has been unusually belligerent towards Russia lately.  Not just the normal righteous indignation and anger that all free nations feel about Ukraine, but something more personal.  These repeated provocations at the Northern Territories (Kurile Islands) truly angered Japanese leadership, which it now calls an illegal occupation.

Russia's perceived attempts at damaging Japan's territorial integrity may be taken as very similar to its attempts to bully and steal land from its ex-soviet neighbors, which is highly insulting to Japan's status as a great power.

Suffice it to say that Japan has both a history of being on the receiving end of imperialism in general and a history with Russian imperialism in particular and will act accordingly if threatened.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on April 07, 2022, 04:43:21 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 12:26:01 PMSuffice it to say that Japan has both a history of being on the receiving end of imperialism in general and a history with Russian imperialism in particular and will act accordingly if threatened.

Japan has a history on both sides of the imperialism scales.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on April 07, 2022, 05:21:37 PM
Since 1905 Russia and Japan have not been the best of buds.  Russia really underestimated Japan then, much like Putin has misjudged the Ukraine. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 07, 2022, 09:59:17 PM
Fun fact; this is the modern "Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces" that the head of the "Russian" - moved there from Kyiv after the Russian Empire annexed Ukraine a few centuries ago - Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, preached from to military commanders that they were holding back "the armies of satan" and saving the "Holy Russians" (Ukrainians) by... killing them?


(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/875ba8801097858061c332bb491af0cfdda90511/0_90_4867_2921/master/4867.jpg?width=1020&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ed1d0b6ee65a83b5d208fd032f9cb658)

It's symbolism is steeped in WW2 iconography, with Soviet medals making up the mosaics and the floor being made of melted down war-trophies and tanks from Nazi Germany - all opened just a year or two ago to celebrate the 75th anniversary.

We really still pretending that the Soviets aren't still in charge over there? That people can look at this picture and tell me that "the Soviets don't exist anymore."?

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/43363ab1d9c0dbf19de6c239e71fc1f094aaa8c6/0_64_4421_2653/master/4421.jpg?width=860&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=f9cf3b779a1b877a1536ed8659c60b94)

Quote"Only a nation that loves God could build such a grand cathedral," said Bishop Stefan of Klin, who heads the Russian Orthodox church's department for cooperation with the army and regularly holds services at the cathedral, where he is the patriarch's designated representative.

The 59-year-old bishop, who was an officer in the Soviet and Russian missile defence forces before becoming a priest, defended the use of Soviet symbols, saying the cathedral depicted "all the epochs of our state, Holy Rus" and it would be wrong to leave out the second world war, given how many Soviet soldiers were religious.

But the imagery has proved controversial. "For many priests, who were young in the 1970s and 1980s and personally came up against the repressive Soviet machine, which targeted the church, they are in shock and they can't get over it," said Sergei Chapnin, a religious scholar in Moscow. "This is not really an Orthodox cathedral, it's a cathedral of our new post-Soviet civil religion," he added.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/20/orthodox-cathedral-of-the-armed-force-russian-national-identity-military-disneyland
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 08, 2022, 01:18:32 AM
Just remember to duck and cover. It is 100 seconds to midnite. Better off being vaporized.
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on April 08, 2022, 07:12:33 AM
Quote from: Cassia on April 08, 2022, 01:18:32 AMJust remember to duck and cover. It is 100 seconds to midnite. Better off being vaporized.
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/
I remember this well.  I was in third or fourth grade.  And it was great fun practicing for the real thing.  We would turn our desks on their sides so the top faced the windows, and hide behind them, while doing the same thing at any other time was a sure trip to the principal's office.  Also, Tuesday morning at 10:30, Chicago and Suburbs sounded air raid sirens, I guess this was both a test and to remind us to think about where we would go when the bombers came.

Even at the young age, I knew what a nuclear bomb was, and I used to wonder when we practiced Duck and Cover how much good it would actually do.  Then one day, the really smart people on the TV said, it probably wouldn't help much, and I said, "I already wondered the same thing!"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 08, 2022, 09:02:55 AM
Ukraine uses "terminator" drones to terrorize Russian invaders (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-army-using-terminator-drones-scare-russians-retreat-1696192)

Quote"This clever, creative solution that our soldiers have found not to waste ammunition, not to waste artillery shells [is] ... take a commercial drone, with a camera, and camouflage it to look like something out of the worst Terminator movie," Novikov said. "So, it looks incredibly scary. Then they fly that drone around the place where the Russian soldiers are."
I saw footage from one of them.  The russian invader panicked and ran as fast as he could to his 'base", which looked like a low-end homeless encampment.  We're talking filthy mattresses and makeshift tents on the side of a road.  His buddies start shooting at the drone and man, they are awful shots.  Eventually, they hit it and the feed cuts out.  Presumably, they were later paid a visit by Ukrainian forces or artillery.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 08, 2022, 09:10:51 AM
Russian influencers (affluencers) destroy their own luxury handbags that they can no longer buy (https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1512105568625909765?s=20&t=TRfAkc0nGs-2mZqYuV-0gQ)

Sanctions can only halt western goods from flowing into Russia, they can't remove goods that are already there.  So thanks for helping the sanctions have more of an effect. 👍
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 08, 2022, 09:48:51 AM
Estonia bans all Russian gas (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60991746?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=624eca09aea8d714b7409c2f%26Estonian%20government%20opts%20to%20dump%20Russian%20gas%262022-04-07T12%3A06%3A42.322Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:eb1f5906-d767-4b75-9e14-7c6dbcf31c88&pinned_post_asset_id=624eca09aea8d714b7409c2f&pinned_post_type=share)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 08, 2022, 01:56:44 PM
Ukrainian forces wipe out elite Russian armored brigade (https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/04/ukraine-forces-say-they-defeated-elite-russian-armored-brigade/)

QuoteSOFREP reported the entire Russian unit never made it to Belgorod and the Ukrainian military's description of the unit as "scrap metal" could suggest the unit's near-total destruction.
Sounds like Ukrainian forces found them while they were trying to retreat/regroup and wiped them out.  What I wouldn't give for the footage!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 08, 2022, 10:36:22 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 09, 2022, 02:47:18 AM
Slovakia sends S-300 air defense system to Ukraine (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fslovakia-gives-s-300-air-defence-system-ukraine-prime-minister-2022-04-08%2F)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 09, 2022, 09:40:16 AM
yeah...heads in the sand
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 09, 2022, 10:42:51 AM
I can't wait for the day till they have to watch those videos like the Germans did.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 09, 2022, 04:12:21 PM
Putin-allied Azerbaijan foreign fighter unit in Ukraine wiped out (https://mobile.twitter.com/BVasylchenko/status/1512806045969698818)

More like Azerbyegone.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 09, 2022, 05:26:42 PM
Russian shipyards halt production due to sanctions (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3453247-russian-shipyards-halt-production-of-ships-due-to-lack-of-foreign-components-intelligence.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 10, 2022, 12:36:31 AM
April 9th Russian losses (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3453499-ukrainian-air-force-destroyed-13-air-targets-in-a-day.html):

3 planes
1 helicopter
9 drones
4 cruise missiles shot down
4 tanks
8 armored vehicles
7 motor vehicles (lol at this category)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 10, 2022, 09:46:03 AM
Czech Republic donates unknown number of soviet tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, multiple rocket launchers, anti-air vehicles, etc (https://www.praguemorning.cz/czech-republic-sends-tanks-rocket-launchers-artillery-to-ukraine/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 10, 2022, 10:06:02 AM
NATO plans to permanently expand troop presence at Russian border (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2F2022%2F04%2F09%2Fexclusive-full-scale-nato-military-force-defend-borders%2F)

QuoteAs part of a major "reset", the relatively small "tripwire" presence on the alliance's eastern flank will be replaced with sufficient forces to repel an attempted invasion of member states such as Estonia and Latvia.

Speaking of Latvia, the Kremlin went on a weird, unhinged rant about wanting to "denazify" it  (https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512491275630559244?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1512491275630559244%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-20706380201974456138.ampproject.net%2F2203172113000%2Fframe.html)after Latvia set aside a day to memorialize those massacred in Ukraine
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 10, 2022, 01:44:41 PM
I feel I've said it within the last year or two on here, but the more I researched Russia before the war... the more and more I saw just how similar we are... and some of the things he talks about do echo the path America is on (just taken to another extreme).

If Americans can take even 1 small thing out of this, it has to be that our current path of corruption, religious fundamentalism, ultra-conservativism and hatred ends at something not far off of Putin's Russia... and if we want to live better lives than them, we need to put the brakes on our own problems before they speed out of control (if we aren't past that point now).

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 10, 2022, 03:46:39 PM
Ukrainian forces destroy large column headed towards Izyum (https://m.censor.net/en/news/3332915/large_column_of_enemy_equipment_and_enemy_manpower_heading_towards_izyum_was_destroyed_synehubiv)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 10, 2022, 05:54:43 PM
1/3 of Russian battle groups no longer capable of fighting (https://mobile.twitter.com/AVindman/status/1512975581578768392)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 10, 2022, 07:43:55 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on April 10, 2022, 01:44:41 PMI feel I've said it within the last year or two on here, but the more I researched Russia before the war... the more and more I saw just how similar we are... and some of the things he talks about do echo the path America is on (just taken to another extreme).

If Americans can take even 1 small thing out of this, it has to be that our current path of corruption, religious fundamentalism, ultra-conservativism and hatred ends at something not far off of Putin's Russia... and if we want to live better lives than them, we need to put the brakes on our own problems before they speed out of control (if we aren't past that point now).
Liberals just have to re-learn to respect traditional liberal values such as free speech and constructive debate no matter their "feelings". This tip-toeing around just drives otherwise reasonable people to the wrong side.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 11, 2022, 12:21:51 AM
Smile!  You're on camera:  Russian artillery takes incoming fire while still setting up (https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511867981596434434).  Probably spotted by Ukrainian drone and fired upon by Ukrainian artillery before they could even do anything meaningful.

And if I'm not mistaken, it looks like a logistics truck got brewed up.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 11, 2022, 12:30:05 AM
In early April (not long ago), Ukrainian commandos on speedboat captured several Russian vehicles (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-snar-10m1-radar-reconnaissance-station-of-the-russian-army-was-seized-in-ukraine/) (including a radar vehicle good at detecting tanks and especially useful for figuring out the location of enemy artillery.  Hmmm...)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 11, 2022, 12:38:53 AM
Too dumb to live:  Russian soldiers bring back radioactive souvenirs from Chernobyl (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-took-radioactive-souvenirs-from-chernobyl-ukraine-nuclear-company-says)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on April 11, 2022, 01:27:25 AM
I don't have the time to watch the vid right now, but from the title, it's exactly what we have been going through. "The country I grew up in doesn't exist anymore." Yeah...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on April 11, 2022, 10:01:37 AM
Quote from: drunkenshoe on April 11, 2022, 01:27:25 AMI don't have the time to watch the vid right now, but from the title, it's exactly what we have been going through. "The country I grew up in doesn't exist anymore." Yeah...
Exactly how I feel!  This is NOT the US I grew up in.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 11, 2022, 02:03:46 PM
Quote from: Mike Cl on April 11, 2022, 10:01:37 AMExactly how I feel!  This is NOT the US I grew up in.
There's a lot of that going around with the sweeping rise in nationalism and disinformation peddling.

If the global climate reaches borderline disaster mode and countries start fighting to the death for resources to survive; it may become very difficult to have a good day. Perhaps we are seeing glimpses of that now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on April 11, 2022, 04:49:04 PM
Quote from: Cassia on April 11, 2022, 02:03:46 PMThere's a lot of that going around with the sweeping rise in nationalism and disinformation peddling.

If the global climate reaches borderline disaster mode and countries start fighting to the death for resources to survive; it may become very difficult to have a good day. Perhaps we are seeing glimpses of that now.
Yeah, I've been thinking of that some lately.  At my age, I don't think I have to be too concerned about that--but then, I think of the changes I've seen (and felt) within the last few years, and maybe I do have more to be concerned with than I think.  Reminds me of an old Twilight Zone episode that shows how a woman deals with the rising heat level in New York City as Earth hurdles toward the sun.  Are we there yet?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 12, 2022, 02:12:16 PM
I'm sure you all know now that Russia used a chemical weapon in Mariupol.  WMDs.

This escalation merits an appropriate escalation in sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine by the West.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 12, 2022, 02:23:14 PM
In happier news:

Russian convoy destroyed near Izium (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513635812180643842) thanks to video by pro-Putin propagandist.  Keep up the good work!

MIGs underway:  Slovakia is transferring MIG-29s to Ukraine (https://domov.sme.sk/c/22882770/eduard-heger-vlada-rozhovor-olano.html)

Poland "accidentally" "loses" 100 T-72 tanks.  Unrelated:  about 100 T-72 tanks mysteriously find their way into Ukrainian control. (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513635812180643842)  It's a mystery to everybody.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 12, 2022, 09:21:35 PM
Putin says Bucha massacre is fake, his ally-with-benefits Lukashenko says it was done by the UK.
Putin says Russia will not be isolated from the West, then says it doesn't need the West.

What sort of idiot is supposed to believe these mutually contradictory ideas?!  I've seen more competent propaganda from North Korea.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 12, 2022, 09:22:15 PM
Meanwhile, Ukrainian messaging:

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on April 13, 2022, 03:48:04 AM
Some of you guys may know i´m a social worker, here in Belgium. I've mentioned it a few times.

I don´t feel like I have a right to actually complain. We are not the suffering country, we are a host country. But it´s been getting though at work.
Ukrainians have been coming to ask for and at our public center of societal welfare. And they are in their right to so. Luckily they´ve been granted the statute of ´temporarily displaced´. Something we haven´t had to use since Kosovo.
But the city i work at has, I fear, overreached. Local politicians promised to build an emergency Town with room for 600 people. That´s as many as antwerp has pledged and they are a far bigger city, wit thus more personel in their public center of societal welfare. We've also opened a hotel to 200 Ukrainians for emergency housing and there are many more being housed by well-meaning people who I fear have not  correctly estimated how long this crisis will last and what such hosting actually demands. (Surely not all, but some have already kicked out families after a week because they didn't think it through and had acted and engaged themselves before thinking it through.) All in all they are estimating 2000 people to be hosted in our city alone. (For reference, there's less than 87.000 people living in the city.)
We´re basically drowning in work. We don't have enough people to handle the added requests for financial aid and get everything sorted and official in time. Let alone to give proper guidance, coaching and non-financial aid in adapting to society. Hell, there are fewer than 10 offical translators versed in Ukrainian in the entirety of Flanders alone. You can imagine the way this impedes progress; burdening these new people in dire need and the pre-existing cliënts all the same. I see the people in my team rushing to burn-outs if this is not handled soon.
We´ve been given extra resources, but the jobmarket for social workers has dried up for over a year and a half now. No-one can find staff. We are allowed to hire more people, but we can't find anyone to fill the positions. Not to say I can prove this objectively, but working at a public center of societal welfare in a city is one of the hardest places to work with the diploma as social worker. And it doesn't pay more than other government positions with the same diploma-qualifications. Nor can our employer just choose to use the non-utilized funds for three extra positions that we can't fill, to incentivize the rest of us with a bonus or a pay-raise.
Things ain´t going well.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 13, 2022, 11:30:44 AM
...this is always the case when people allow themselves to be ruled by dictators. Any dictator from the gods and popes to hitler to pol pot to putin. misery is all that awaits. a giant swath of people crave to have a "strongman-in-charge". fuck that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 13, 2022, 05:12:25 PM
US announces $800 million more in military aid to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-announces-additional-800-million-military-aid-ukraine-2022-04-13/)

QuoteThe new security assistance package, according to the Defense Department, includes 11 Mi-17 helicopters that had been earmarked for Afghanistan before the U.S.-backed government collapsed and 18 155mm howitzers, along with counter-artillery radars and 200 armored personnel carriers.

This was the first time howitzers have been provided to Ukraine by the United States.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on April 13, 2022, 05:15:23 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 13, 2022, 05:12:25 PMUS announces $800 million more in military aid to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-announces-additional-800-million-military-aid-ukraine-2022-04-13/)


Where we we getting Russian helicopters?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 13, 2022, 05:32:55 PM
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on April 13, 2022, 05:15:23 PMWhere we we getting Russian helicopters?
Russia, apparently. (https://web.archive.org/web/20100622041236/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37793266/ns/politics-washington_post)  LOL
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 14, 2022, 12:00:52 AM
In other good news, pro-Putin oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk was found and detained by Ukrainian Security Service (equivalent to Secret Service).  He was previously under house arrest but escaped just days before hostilities broke out (suspicious).  Since he is very close to Putin, he is a valuable bargaining tool.  Moscow is not happy at all about this (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-zelenskyy-kyiv-business-1453669c4918e71051806e38f9d076c3), of course.

This guy's wiki page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Medvedchuk) is something else.  He and Putin practically have matching tattoos.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 14, 2022, 08:19:29 AM
The flagship of Russian Black Sea fleet has sunk. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/14/ukraine-russian-missile-cruiser-moskva-warship/)

Russia says it caught fire (spontaneously?) and its ammo exploded, but its crew evacuated safely and it's still afloat.  (At least one of those statements is likely to be a lie)

Ukraine says they distracted it with a drone while they launched a missile that hit it and caused a fire that spread to the ammo.

Imo, it seems likely that there were casualties, from the initial strike and/or from the exploding ammo.

It should be noted that this Neptune anti-ship cruise missile system was domestically produced and just came online last year.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 14, 2022, 08:23:04 AM
Near Izium, Ukrainian forces blew up a bridge while a Russian column was crossing (https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514473116994576385), inflicting significant damage to the convoy
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 14, 2022, 10:05:33 PM
Russian naval units are backing away from the Ukraine coast, lest they mysteriously catch on fire, too.

This just occured to me, but I doubt I'm the first to have such an epiphany:

Russian naval/land/air units aren't supporting each other most of the time, they're essentially fighting their own battles without coordination.  No such thing as combined arms with Russia.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones and air forces are frequently supporting ground forces.  And Ukraine gets phenomenal Intel, so they're often able to engage the enemy on their own terms - like hitting convoys while they're still en route or hitting artillery while they're still setting up, etc.

People love to compare numbers - tanks on the field, aircraft in the air, etc - but imo, there's a huge qualitative difference here to take into account as well.

Ukraine simply is doing more with less.  And what few areas it has a definite advantage - like intel - is being put to fantastic use.  Imagine what they could do with more!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 15, 2022, 08:47:44 AM
Only 54 crew rescued from sunk Moskva out of ~500 (https://news247gh.com/only-54-crew-members-of-russian-warship-moskva-to-be-rescued-out-of-500/)

With the loss of the flagship Moskva and the assault cruiser Saratov (famously hit by missile while at harbor due to bungling propagandist giving away its position on video) the remaining Black Sea fleet is looking awfully vulnerable since they relied heavily on the flagship for anti-air and ant-missile defense.  Let's hope nothing happens to further reduce the Russian presence in the area...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 15, 2022, 08:59:49 AM
Speaking of more with less, one soldier, known simply as Wolf, single-handedly eliminated 12 Russian invaders (https://socportal.info/en/news/in-the-kyiv-region-a-local-resident-single-handedly-liquidated-12-occupiers/) in the Kyiv region.

He also helped evacuate civilians, including children.

Slava Ukrayini. Heroyam slava.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 15, 2022, 09:11:07 AM
Yesterday in Donbas, Ukrainian forces destroyed (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/15/7339696/) 4 tanks, 6 armoured personnel carriers, 4 infantry fighting vehicles and one artillery system.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on April 15, 2022, 09:23:55 AM
Fun headline: Russian warship sunken in Ukraine war may have been carrying a piece of the 'true cross,' a treasured Christian relic.

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-warship-sunken-ukraine-war-091746009.html

"The Moskva, Russia's Black Sea fleet flagship, sank on Thursday after an explosion.

Russian state media reported in 2020 that the ship was due to take a holy relic on board.

It's unclear whether the relic — a piece of the "true cross" — was on board when the Moskva sank.

The Russian warship that was confirmed as sunk on Thursday may have been carrying a holy relic when it went down."

I keep forgetting how the Russian Orthodox is beyond crazy.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 15, 2022, 12:35:08 PM
QuoteI keep forgetting how the Russian Orthodox is beyond crazy.

In all honesty Russia as a country is just 250 years, socially and particularly politically, behind the West - they never had an Enlightenment, and while czars like Catherine and Peter brought the military advancements to the East with them... Russia never had a movement of men like Voltaire, Montesquieu, Locke, Kant, etc. who advocated for libertarianism and democracy.

What movements they did have were quickly shutdown; the biggest pro-democracy movement was the February Revolution of 1917 when the monarch was overthrown and a republic established; by October of the same year Vladimir Lenin began his purge of anyone who didn't submit to the party and the country would fall right back into civil war and then authoritarianism.

In all it's history, Russia has only had a (relatively) free people for 8 months - starting with the Grand Duchy of Moskva in 1263, that is 8 months out of a roughly 9100 months. It's no wonder they are the way they are.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on April 15, 2022, 12:36:04 PM
Quote from: Mike Cl on April 15, 2022, 09:23:55 AMFun headline: Russian warship sunken in Ukraine war may have been carrying a piece of the 'true cross.
No problem.  They sell those on ebay.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 15, 2022, 12:41:25 PM
The video I've been waiting for.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 16, 2022, 01:34:26 AM
Russia says they'll retaliate for the loss of their flagship.  Against whom?  They never said it was attacked!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 16, 2022, 01:40:37 AM
US sends "unmanned surface vessels" to Ukraine (https://www.fedscoop.com/mysterious-robotic-ships-headed-to-ukraine/)

Quote"It's an unmanned surface vessel (USV) that can be used for a variety of purposes in coastal defense. I think I'll just leave it at that," Kirby told reporters

Quote"There's a wide variety of roles that unmanned surface systems could play, from helping to extend Ukraine's surveillance out further and further away from its coastline, to potentially aiding in the targeting of Russian vessels, to helping to sweep Ukrainian waterways of mines if Russia goes that route,"

QuoteSuch weapons could potentially include small missiles that are essentially "guided rockets," or machine guns. Alternatively, the Ukrainians could load the boats with explosives and ram them into Russian vessels like al-Qaida operatives did to the USS Cole in 2000, he said.
(https://wompampsupport.azureedge.net/fetchimage?siteId=7575&v=2&jpgQuality=100&width=700&url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.kym-cdn.com%2Fphotos%2Fimages%2Fnewsfeed%2F000%2F353%2F279%2Fe31.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 16, 2022, 09:08:05 AM
Orcs destroy cemeteries in Kharkiv including a memorial for victims of totalitarianism (https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Ostapchuk/status/1515083876103856128?t=FIKehHJr93sw1jMAwXAkiQ&s=19)

What's the point of this in war?  There is no point.  It is done simply to cause as much destruction and hardship as possible while also destroying culture.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on April 16, 2022, 09:16:48 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 16, 2022, 09:08:05 AMWhat's the point of this in war?  There is no point.  It is done simply to cause as much destruction and hardship as possible while also destroying culture.
That's what I've been wondering.  There must be something Putin could do at home to make things better for Russia.  Sometimes it seems like he just wants attention.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 16, 2022, 09:29:55 AM
Quote from: SGOS on April 16, 2022, 09:16:48 AMThat's what I've been wondering.  There must be something Putin could do at home to make things better for Russia.  Sometimes it seems like he just wants attention.
If he wanted to, he could live a happy, peaceful life in extreme luxury every day for the rest of his life.  Instead, he plots to poison people, carve up Russia's neighbors, throws Russia's men into a veritable meatgrinder (and Russia already has serious demographic issues), and threaten nuclear war.

Wealth has given him the opportunity to live whatever life he chooses.  He chose this one.  Wealth has revealed his character to the entire world.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on April 16, 2022, 11:37:46 AM
Quote from: SGOS on April 16, 2022, 09:16:48 AMThat's what I've been wondering.  There must be something Putin could do at home to make things better for Russia.  Sometimes it seems like he just wants attention.
Does any dictator really want to make things better for the society they are 'leading'?  I think all they care about is the gathering of power and personal wealth.  Putin and Trump fit that bill. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 16, 2022, 01:10:12 PM
We bombed our own villages to gin up a casus belli (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-soldier-says-putins-troops-bombed-their-own-people-in-bryansk-to-blame-ukraine-ukrainian-intel-says)

Not exactly surprising, but interesting to hear it them admit it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 16, 2022, 01:47:11 PM
Another Russian general pushing up sunflowers (https://bb-cntv.com/news/in-ukraine-the-deputy-commander-of-the-8th-army-died-paper-25038/) 🌻
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on April 16, 2022, 09:58:02 PM
Austrian Chancellor Nehammer stated that Putin believes he is winning this war.
Putin can block his people from knowing the truth, but he cannot block himself from knowing the truth, or from western media. What is going on this mans brain?

 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 17, 2022, 01:06:07 AM
Quote from: ferdmonger on April 16, 2022, 09:58:02 PMAustrian Chancellor Nehammer stated that Putin believes he is winning this war.
Putin can block his people from knowing the truth, but he cannot block himself from knowing the truth, or from western media. What is going on this mans brain?

 
It depends on what you view as the war; if it's simply against Ukraine, he is losing it... badly.

If it is a war to see how far he can push his limits without any meaningful response from his opponents... then he is doing brilliant.

This war doesn't cost him, personally, a single cent; he will continue to be possibly the richest man in the world even if Ukraine pushed all the way to the border... and his money is mostly made by Western businesses that will continue to do business with either him directly or, more likely, shadow companies to avoid the publicity.

On top of that, he gets to emulate his hero Stalin and Lenin and commit genocide on Ukrainians without a real response from the West, something both of them did to disturbingly extreme levels. It's a no-lose situation for him at the moment, and the more the West allows him to grow comfortable... the more comfortable he is going to get (deeply profound, I know).
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 17, 2022, 01:20:25 AM
He's tested his limits several times before, and NATO has had peace in our time several times before - a piece of Georgia, a piece of Moldova (though that was before Putin), a piece of Ukraine...

This time, he got greedy and it hasn't quite worked out for him so far.  He was not properly prepared for quite so much resistance - from Ukraine, from NATO members, and even to some degree, from Russians themselves.

But like Shiranu said, Putin personally loses nothing and Russia has sold its share of gas this year regardless of sanctions.  And they have caused considerable death and destruction in Ukraine while the world looks on.  Less destruction than Putin wanted, but there's always next time...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 17, 2022, 07:52:42 AM
First European leader to meet with Putin since the election: Putin thinks he's winning the war (https://www.businessinsider.com/austrian-chancellor-karl-nehammer-putin-believes-he-is-winning-war-2022-4?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds)

There's a good chance Putin might be delusional.  He apparently had a "greeted as liberators" mindset for the first few weeks which ended in a series of sackings and purges when he finally realized that wasn't true.

There's a good chance that he's ODing on his own propaganda.  If so, that makes him even more dangerous.  He'll escalate and do some very reckless things before reality finally comes crashing down on him.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on April 17, 2022, 08:29:30 AM
It's been noted before but his mental parallels to Hitler are uncanny.  We are always cautioned not do draw such parallels, but in general, I think it safe to say that great amounts of power can affect ones view of reality in ways that could be deemed insane.  It may require a bit of being predisposed to such an outcome, but power is probably more personally harmful than drug addiction when possessed by the wrong person.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 17, 2022, 08:33:03 AM
Friends like these: large shootout between Russian troops and Russian-allied troops (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1515629956495286275)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 17, 2022, 03:47:47 PM
Russian anti-air production falling due to sanctions (https://mobile.twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1515679671752474625?s=21&t=IRSG7j48APABepJIZjV2tA)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: viocjit on April 17, 2022, 11:48:53 PM
Who's there is interest to give money to Ukrainian forces ? It's legal to do so in the majority of countries of the world.

Who's there is interest to write emails (Or letters and why not a public one) to politicians in European Union/AU/CA/CH/JP/NO/NZ/SG/UK/US (Not forget others countries that put sanctions) to suggest them new ideas of sanctions against Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus ?

When I say politicians in European Union. I'm speaking about those working for countries member of this union and those working in European institutions.

There are many potential targets like MP of national parliaments and MP of European parliament.
There are also head of states , prime ministers (Vice-president in some countries , some countries have one vice-prime minister or more) , members of governments , people (Businessmen for example) for which we know they have links with a person of interest (A MP in a national parliament for example) because these people can potentially influence people of interests.

I listed only a fraction of potential targets for which we can send emails or letters.
It's better to write to politicians of a country if you're a citizen of this country.
It's better to write to politicians working in European institutions such European commission if you're a citizen of an EU state.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 18, 2022, 08:55:57 AM
Quote from: viocjit on April 17, 2022, 11:48:53 PMWho's there is interest to give money to Ukrainian forces ?
Every country likely to have russian "special operations" conducted in their country, which is nearly every country that borders russia.

Every country which would benefit from Russia's sphere of influence decreasing, which is the above plus pretty much every NATO/EU country plus some other countries with heavy western ties like like Japan and Australia.

Every country that imports grain from Ukraine, which is a LOT of countries.

And last but not least, any country horrified by land-grab expansionist militarism and genocide.  Or maybe countries that just don't want trade disrupted by wars of aggression.  That's pretty much everyone.

Virtually every country on the planet would benefit in some way - small or large - by both countries returning to a state of peace.  And the best way to get there is for them to chip in and help Ukraine defend itself.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 18, 2022, 02:01:09 PM
Google maps has un-hidden Russian military instillations. (https://t.me/hroniki_ridika/6238)  The next 24 hours should be very interesting.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQo4hJUWYAkK-zu?format=jpg&name=small)

Either this is a hell of a glitch or the Russian airforce isn't quite as formidable as I thought.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 18, 2022, 02:10:54 PM
Dirty deeds done dirt cheap: Ukrainian forces shoot down $15 million helicopter with $100 missile (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3460205-ukrainian-troops-down-15-million-enemy-helicopter-by-firing-100-missile-system.html)

QuoteWe did not want to waste a Stinger on them, so the Russian Ka-52 helicopter was shot down with an ordinary Igla
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 18, 2022, 10:04:09 PM
Ukraine has started receiving the $800 million military aid package from the US

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQg5eIFXIAQHAq8?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 18, 2022, 10:35:46 PM
Prophetic video from before the conflict:


It talks about the Slava class (like the Moskva) packs a ton of weapon systems close together and all that dakka comes with maintenance, reliability, and safety issues.  An ammo detonation could be catastrophic...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on April 18, 2022, 11:31:09 PM
How long before Vlad starts tossing cruise missiles onto rail lines everywhere in Ukraine?  And then keeps doing it while destroying entire cities... slow but sure.

His ground forces are crap.  Terror from the skies is his fall back. He intends to grind Ukraine into into dust, slow but sure while 30 NATO nations watch.

Show this loser who's the loser. 

It's all bluster at this point.  The three day 'special operation' didn't work out, and it's too late to lob cruise missiles into Kiev.  (Wouldn't be politically correct at this point.)

Enough blackmail and more offense. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 12:05:53 AM
Agreed.  Putin keeps talking nukes, but he knows what would happen next if he went that far.  He's just trying to threaten as always.  It only works if you think it's credible and it's not credible.  As reckless and amok this conflict is, Putin has been very careful so far not to attack any NATO forces.  There's a reason for that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on April 19, 2022, 07:33:42 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 18, 2022, 10:04:09 PMUkraine has started receiving the $800 million military aid package from the US

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQg5eIFXIAQHAq8?format=jpg&name=small)
Not near enough in my opinion. We should start at 5 times that, and then assess.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 09:33:48 AM
Families of Moskva crew demand to know where they are (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/18/moskva-warship-need-answers-relatives-missing-crew-russia)

The Kremlin says it was fully evacuated, so where is everyone?  Surely, they'd like to be reunited with their families.

Conveniently, reporting the sailors as missing or dead due to accident rather than killed from enemy attack avoids having to pay the family 7 million rubles (~$84,000) as promised, saving Moscow about 3.5 billion rubles (~42 million usd)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 09:48:54 AM
UK to send Stormer armored anti-air vehicles to Ukraine (https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/19/britain-to-deploy-stormer-armoured-missile-launchers-to-ukraine/)

They carry starstreak missiles, which are extremely fast missiles very good at hitting fast-moving air targets.  So low-flying aircraft or helicopters are gonna get shredded.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 10:04:03 AM
Greece seizes Russian tanker (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fgreece-seizes-russian-tanker-part-eu-sanctions-2022-04-19%2F)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 10:11:45 AM
Ukrainian millionaire finds out Russian troops are holed up in his home via webcam, tells Ukrainian forces to bomb it (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ukraine-own-home-bombed_n_625e97b2e4b052d2bd66142b)

"Keep the change, ya filthy animal"

🌻🌻🌻
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 01:46:37 PM
Finland will send more military aid and its contents/delivery method will be kept secret to ensure safe arrival.

Romania will soon be sending military aid (technically against its constitution, so it'll have to quickly amend its constitution to allow sending military aid)

The Netherlands will also be sending "heavier equipment" including armored vehicles to Ukraine.

The Czech Republic has offered to repair Ukrainian tanks/APCs.

Top supporters of Ukraine per capita (https://mobile.twitter.com/Ondrejcsak/status/1516402911932301316) Germany needs to step it up asap.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 19, 2022, 03:48:53 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 01:46:37 PMFinland will send more military aid and its contents/delivery method will be kept secret to ensure safe arrival.

Romania will soon be sending military aid (technically against its constitution, so it'll have to quickly amend its constitution to allow sending military aid)

The Netherlands will also be sending "heavier equipment" including armored vehicles to Ukraine.

The Czech Republic has offered to repair Ukrainian tanks/APCs.

Top supporters of Ukraine per capita (https://mobile.twitter.com/Ondrejcsak/status/1516402911932301316) Germany needs to step it up asap.

Germany gives a lot more, as it is the 4th largest economy in the world. So that graph shows a pretty skewed view.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 19, 2022, 03:49:11 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 09:33:48 AMFamilies of Moskva crew demand to know where they are (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/18/moskva-warship-need-answers-relatives-missing-crew-russia)

The Kremlin says it was fully evacuated, so where is everyone?  Surely, they'd like to be reunited with their families.

Conveniently, reporting the sailors as missing or dead due to accident rather than killed from enemy attack avoids having to pay the family 7 million rubles (~$84,000) as promised, saving Moscow about 3.5 billion rubles (~42 million usd)
That is truly shitty.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 06:44:08 PM
Quote from: Dark Lightning on April 19, 2022, 03:48:53 PMGermany gives a lot more, as it is the 4th largest economy in the world. So that graph shows a pretty skewed view.
Germany gives more in absolute terms - obviously, rich countries will give more than poorer ones.  But as a percentage of GDP, it doesn't give nearly as much as many other european countries.

Here's the graph in absolute terms:

(https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/5/0/csm_UST_Grafik1_Laendervergleich_EN_f5a0c4ff9e.png)

Estonia was beating Germany in absolute terms a while back, though iirc that was only for military aid.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 19, 2022, 06:51:30 PM
Blogger who knows what's up and has a plan...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 10:14:28 PM
Russia accuses US and West of dragging out 'military operation' (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61136997?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=625e8748b1e16c43aefe6a79%26Russia%20accuses%20US%20and%20West%20of%20dragging%20out%20%27military%20operation%27%262022-04-19T10%3A40%3A46.663Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:04b9197d-812a-48f6-bc86-54a7dfa4f36a&pinned_post_asset_id=625e8748b1e16c43aefe6a79&pinned_post_type=share)

QuoteRussia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has claimed the US and other Western countries are "doing everything to drag out Russia's military operation in Ukraine".
After a month of conflict and literal years of military aid to Ukraine - they finally cracked the code.  Yes, the intent is to stave off occupation.

QuoteShoigu says the increasing volume of foreign arms supplies to Ukraine "clearly demonstrates their intentions to provoke the Kyiv regime to fight to the last Ukrainian standing".
Well, the last invader standing.  The Ukrainians were already prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian standing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 20, 2022, 05:30:21 AM
France to offer Ukraine security guarantees after the war is over (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3462221-france-ready-to-provide-security-guarantees-to-ukraine-after-war-reuters.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 20, 2022, 02:08:02 PM
Before the Moskva was sunk, it was headed towards Odessa to help capture the city (https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/04/19/7340798/)

QuoteOne of the surviving sailors of the cruiser "Moskva" told his mother that the ship was moving to Odessa to participate in the landing of paratroopers who were supposed to capture the city.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 20, 2022, 05:37:20 PM
Ukrainian Security Service discovers abandoned cache of equipment/ammo worth $200 million in Kharkiv region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3462781-sbu-discovers-secret-warehouse-with-ammunition-worth-200m-in-kharkiv-region.html)

Quote"According to preliminary data, the components available there were intended for damaged Russian equipment, which the enemy was going to repair during the offensive. However, thanks to the resistance of Ukrainian defenders, the occupiers failed to take Kharkiv. Through the efforts of the SBU, the entire seized consignment of weapons will be used to protect our state," the statement said.
It was intended to fuel the russian war machine.  Now it will fuel the resistance.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 20, 2022, 05:53:24 PM

They might have dwindling stockpiles of precision munitions, but they have a nigh-endless supply of f-bombs :P

Jokey dubbing aside, they were ordered to massacre civilians but somehow had difficulty with that, faced terrifying attacks from Ukrainian forces (well deserved), ran out of supplies including food while the commanders got whatever they wanted (definitely some corruption issues), and finally, the half-starved soldiers were abandoned by their commanders and left to their own devices (definitely some moral issues, facilitating desertion, perhaps even bordering on fragging opportunities).

This speaks to serious command and control, logistics, and morale issues.  Lots of stuff that Ukrainian forces can exploit, including the ability to record their conversations to know what they're up to in the first place.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 20, 2022, 08:36:26 PM
Russia withdraws a battalion (BTG) from Ukraine due to heavy losses (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/20/7340824/)

QuoteDue to heavy losses, Russian forces withdrew the battalion tactical group of the 237th Tank Regiment of the 3rd Motorised Rifle Division of the 20th All-Military Army of the Western Military District from the Kharkiv region to its place of permanent deployment (Soloti, Belgorod region) to restore combat capability.
76 russian BTGs are active in Ukraine as of April 18th, so the loss of even one is fairly significant, though there are more in Russia either ready or in the process of reforming which could take its place.

Still, one less is one less.

QuoteIn the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repulsed 10 Russian attacks, destroyed 12 tanks, 28 units of armoured and 2 units of automotive equipment, and 1 artillery system. The Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down 9 air targets: 1 plane, 1 helicopter, 6 UAVs of various makes and a cruise missile.
The Ukrainian defenders have been busy.  Although the invaders are using more cautious tactics, the defenders are more experienced at dealing with them and have the additional advantage of increasingly sophisticated gear/training while invading forces have suffered substantial losses of experienced soldiers/officers as well as lost equipment, which may or may not be adequately replaced.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 09:25:47 AM
Russian talking heads weigh in on the "special operation" (https://v.redd.it/s7a9qlxhytu81)

First, they say Ukraine is receiving NATO weapons (true)
Then, NATO is sending its soldiers to operate such weapons (not necessarily)
Finally, Russia is at war with NATO countries and winning (lol no.  If they were, they'd know it.  Casualties would be skyhigh)

North Koreans are less delusional.  Russia can't take Kyiv, and they want Europe?  Poland would chew them up and spit them out. Lunatics.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 11:27:32 AM
A few days ago, the Netherlands said it was sending "heavier equipment" to Ukraine.  Now we're getting into specifics. (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fsebastienroblin%2F2022%2F04%2F21%2Fthe-dutch-are-sending-huge-german-armored-howitzers-to-ukraine%2F%3Fsh%3D767f2b619380)  Specifically, they're sending German-built Panzerhaubitze 2000 long-range armored howitzers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000).  These things are no joke and a hell of an upgrade from Ukraine's old soviet tech.

1) armored (as opposed to the field guns they've mostly been using)
2) relatively fast vehicle
3) fast firing rate, firing every 3-6 seconds
4) long range of 30-40km

This could be a game-changer.  Russia's been relying heavily on bombardment tactics so far, since massed assaults are meatgrinders for them.  Let's see what happens when Ukraine has better artillery backed by shared intel!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on April 21, 2022, 11:55:25 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 11:27:32 AMA few days ago, the Netherlands said it was sending "heavier equipment" to Ukraine.  Now we're getting into specifics. (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fsebastienroblin%2F2022%2F04%2F21%2Fthe-dutch-are-sending-huge-german-armored-howitzers-to-ukraine%2F%3Fsh%3D767f2b619380)  Specifically, they're sending German-built Panzerhaubitze 2000 long-range armored howitzers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000).  These things are no joke and a hell of an upgrade from Ukraine's old soviet tech.

1) armored (as opposed to the field guns they've mostly been using)
2) relatively fast vehicle
3) fast firing rate, firing every 3-6 seconds
4) long range of 30-40km

This could be a game-changer.  Russia's been relying heavily on bombardment tactics so far, since massed assaults are meatgrinders for them.  Let's see what happens when Ukraine has better artillery backed by shared intel!

These along with the counter battery radar system they are getting from the US and the Netherlands should help a lot.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Apparently I've been focused on the wrong warzone.  Lots of mysterious fires going on in Russia.  Rough seas?  (Too soon?)

Fire at weapons facility in Tver kills 7, fire at chemical plant in Kinesha (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/die-in-fire-at-russia-defence-institute)

Speaking of mysterious, 2 Russian oligarchs got the ultimate sanction (https://www.newsweek.com/oligarchs-murder-suicide-1699766).  In both cases, they were found dead from violence along with family members and another family member found the bodies.  Both men were tied to russian gas giants.

The first one was ruled a murder-suicide.  Maybe that's correct.  Maybe it's not.  Who knows.  But I'll tell you this, I'd bet 6-months pay that Putin knows.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 21, 2022, 10:37:47 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 09:39:54 PMApparently I've been focused on the wrong warzone.  Lots of mysterious fires going on in Russia.  Rough seas?  (Too soon?)

Fire at weapons facility in Tver kills 7, fire at chemical plant in Kinesha (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/die-in-fire-at-russia-defence-institute)

Speaking of mysterious, 2 Russian oligarchs got the ultimate sanction (https://www.newsweek.com/oligarchs-murder-suicide-1699766).  In both cases, they were found dead from violence along with family members and another family member found the bodies.  Both men were tied to russian gas giants.

The first one was ruled a murder-suicide.  Maybe that's correct.  Maybe it's not.  Who knows.  But I'll tell you this, I'd bet 6-months pay that Putin knows.

Needs more Polonium...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 11:32:43 PM
US to send $800 million worth of military aid to Ukraine (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3006912/more-howitzers-artillery-rounds-uavs-headed-to-ukraine/), including 72 howitzers, 144,000 howitzer rounds, and 121 Phoenix Ghost drones.

These new drones are particularly interesting.  Similar to Switchblade drones, which essentially kamikaze enemy vehicles, but different.  And especially intriguing - specifically geared towards Ukraine's battlefield situation in Donbas.

If I had to guess, I'd assume it could excel at destroying grouped vehicles.  Or maybe it hands out travel brochures to the Red Forest.  Either one would be devastating.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 22, 2022, 09:24:00 AM
Ukrainian forces destroy 3 MLRS (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3464365-ukrainian-border-guards-destroy-three-russian-mlrs-air-defense-system-in-kharkiv-region.html), 3 planes, and 3 helicopters (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3464126-ukraine-army-downs-three-enemy-planes-and-three-helicopters.html).
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 22, 2022, 01:38:04 PM
Russia plans to steal land in southern Ukraine to link up with Transnistria, deny Ukraine the sea, surround Ukraine (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61188943)

The weird part is Transistria.  Those are just separatists, right?  Not some sort of pseudo-secret Russian-controlled enclave?  So why would Moscow care about them?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 22, 2022, 10:02:02 PM
France to supply 12 Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine (https://defence-blog.com/france-to-send-caesar-self-propelled-howitzers-to-ukraine/)

These things are no joke, either:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAESAR_self-propelled_howitzer
* fully computerized (so I assume extremely accurate)
* can fire 6-8 rounds per minute
* max range of 42km
* vehicle speed of 31mph-62mph depending on the terrain

40 Ukrainian soldiers arrived in France to train on them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 22, 2022, 10:28:15 PM
Ukraine's current artillery:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S7_Pion
And yes, it can theoretically fire nukes.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 22, 2022, 10:50:28 PM
My hope is that enough firepower makes it to Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion. I'm sure that a lot of eastern Europe is with me on this. The whole thing is sickening.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 22, 2022, 11:28:16 PM
Quote from: Dark Lightning on April 22, 2022, 10:50:28 PMMy hope is that enough firepower makes it to Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion.
So far, they're holding strong.  The live map has a TON of russian bombardment, which is scary but doesn't appear to be particularly strategically significant *looks at photos of bombed livestock pen*

The good news is that Russian advances have failed and been turned back. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3465020-nine-russian-mbts-30-units-of-other-heavy-equipment-destroyed-in-ukraines-east-over-past-day.html)

QuoteOn April 22, Joint Forces successfully repulsed eight attacks by Russian invaders in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Ukrainian defenders destroyed nine tanks, three artillery systems, 18 units of armored and 13 units of other military vehicles, an armored combat vehicle, and a fuel tanker.

Air defense units shot down four Orlan-10 unmanned aerial vehicles.
Also, unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces bombed a Russian command post near Kherson (https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/5843).  I'd LOVE to post more about that when it hits the press.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 23, 2022, 09:27:37 AM
I've been reading reports that these advances are causing heavy attrition among Russian forces for minor territorial gains, if anything.  And that this heavy attrition is rapidly degrading their fighting ability, so in time, they'll be so spent that Ukrainian forces will be able to fairly easily push them out, especially with the influx of western artillery.

(This is essentially what happened in Ukraine's northern front, which now no longer exists)

If so, this war could be over sooner rather than later.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 23, 2022, 09:02:43 PM
Ukrainian artillery hits Russian command post, kills 2 generals, a third is grievously wounded (https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukrainian-forces-strike-russian-command-post-and-kill-two-more-generals)

That's 9 so far, maybe ten.  Fingers crossed!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 23, 2022, 09:48:12 PM
I'm really hoping that the armaments being sent arrive in time to cashier the Russian Army right the fuck out of Ukraine. It's a shame that said armaments weren't sent sooner, but I guess politics fuck everything up. It would have been nice to not see so much destruction; it's just sickening to me.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 23, 2022, 10:39:45 PM
Turkey has closed its airspace to Russian planes carrying troops to Syria (https://www.timesofisrael.com/turkey-closes-airspace-to-russian-planes-flying-to-syria-despite-close-ties/)

Unlike European/American airspace bans, this one really hurts Russia.  It turns a straightshot into a much more circuitous route, adding time and fuel costs.  Bleeding rubles.

As you can see, Russian flights can't cut through Europe (https://www.businessinsider.com/map-shows-countries-that-closed-airspace-russia-over-ukraine-war-2022-3), so their only practical route is through Iran and Iraq, which is certainly not ideal.

Turkey's been the understated MVP in frustrating Russian aggression - blocking Russian warships access to the Black Sea and easy access to Syria.

Sure, Russia could try to pass through anyways, but Turkey is dead serious about shooting down Russian planes on their turf.  They've done it before. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown).
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 23, 2022, 11:03:26 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 23, 2022, 11:13:25 PM
My brother is really into that.  Parkinson's, maybe?

I half-jokingly compared Putin to Phaeton from Exosquad.

That villain marched to war and galvanized opposing factions into a formidable united front, sealing his doom from day 1.  He took over lots of territory but couldn't hold it as determined resistance with more and more advanced weapons eventually outmatched his forces.  Halfway through the war, the villain started dying from illness (he wore a special outfit to conceal his grotesque, disfiguring disease progression) and exhibited increasingly erratic and self-destructive behavior, eventually causing his most trusted generals to plot against him or simply desert their posts.   Sound familiar?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 24, 2022, 02:19:21 AM
Firstly, sorry I've left you to do all the heavy lifting in this thread Hydra; between work and mental I just haven't been able to work up the energy to post here.

QuoteTurkey's been the understated MVP in frustrating Russian aggression - blocking Russian warships access to the Black Sea and easy access to Syria.

Secondly... it's almost like spending several hundred years provoking someone (the Russians and the Ottomans were kinda, slightly, just a little, not too friendly with each other) makes them more likely to hate you in the future.

Who would have thought?*




*other than literally everyone who wasn't a massive empire at one point.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on April 24, 2022, 04:01:53 AM
That's Montreux Convention. The Turkish government has declared that they will act according to the convention with no exceptions. But Turkey's not strong enough to stand against Russia in any way. Too big, too powerful, too close and not to mention two country has been shit wired into each other for a very long time in a fatal, twisted way.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 24, 2022, 08:55:46 AM
My eldest son is currently at Incirlik AFB. He was set to rotate back to the US but is stuck, for now, because of the war.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 24, 2022, 09:11:31 AM
Quote from: drunkenshoe on April 24, 2022, 04:01:53 AMBut Turkey's not strong enough to stand against Russia in any way. Too big, too powerful, too close and not to mention two country has been shit wired into each other for a very long time in a fatal, twisted way.
Doesn't matter.  Article 5.  Russia will think twice.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 24, 2022, 09:30:43 AM

A LOOOONG video, but a good one, I think.

Basically, no matter what happens in Ukraine tomorrow, the West has already done significant harm to the Russian economy and taken away a very sizable chunk of Russia's warchest.  Russia won't collapse tomorrow, and may lean on China to survive the worst of it.  But the main take-away is that the West can absolutely win the economic long game with Russia and destroy its war-making ability for years if not decades.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 24, 2022, 09:55:39 AM
Sanctions hit Russian economy (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-economy-dd7bcb1c09b4020a3f75048c4045fa90)

Quote"The government wants to paint a picture that things are not as bad as they actually are," said Michael Alexeev, an economics professor at Indiana University who has studied Russia's economy in its transition after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

A closer look, however, shows that the sanctions are taking a bite out of Russia's economy:

— The country is enduring its worst bout of inflation in two decades. Rosstat, the state's economic statistics agency, said inflation last month hit 17.3%, the highest level since 2002. By comparison, the International Monetary Fund expects consumer prices in developing countries to rise 8.7% this year, up from 5.9% last year.
A tank manufacturer had to shut down, the main russian shipyards had to shut down, an industrial plant that manufactures SAMs shut down, etc.  Job losses in the hundreds of thousands in Moscow alone.  Brain drain.  Partial default.  The real possibility of stagflation.  Etc.

Putin is artificially inflating the ruble by forcing Russian businesses to buy the ruble (losing significant amounts of money in the process).  And the stock market only looks okay because it's mostly not open.

This seemingly good financial health is an illusion.  The real situation is Russians fighting over bags of sugar at the grocery store like piranhas.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 24, 2022, 10:14:58 AM
Caught 'em napping: Russian soldier found sleeping (https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/uaeed7/sleeping_russian_soldier_found_by_ukrainians/)

Bring him inside, give him a nice cot to sleep on, and relieve him of his gun.  He won't be needing it anymore.

Russia benefits from this big myth of boldness, grit, and fearsome determination.  Take a look.  Do you see any of that in reality?

*edit - may be a russian soldier filmed by other russians
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 24, 2022, 03:04:10 PM
Macron wins election, Putin loses (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/macron-le-pen-french-election-results-04-24-22-intl/index.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 25, 2022, 08:31:54 AM
Meet the heroes: Green


This guy stole an invader truck full of ammo, sneaked it past a Russian checkpoint (lol), and delivered it safely to Ukrainian forces.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 25, 2022, 08:39:24 AM
Russian ambassador says to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61185469?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6266653777811a20d37c9a97%26Sending%20weapons%20to%20Ukraine%20unacceptable%2C%20Russia%20reportedly%20tells%20US%262022-04-25T11%3A22%3A49.306Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:700260bb-a5a7-454e-a27b-6c1d258c912d&pinned_post_asset_id=6266653777811a20d37c9a97&pinned_post_type=share)

(https://i.imgur.com/mp5jJUxl.jpg)

How about you stop sending arms there first.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on April 25, 2022, 10:29:27 PM
 
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 25, 2022, 08:31:54 AMMeet the heroes: Green


This guy stole an invader truck full of ammo, sneaked it past a Russian checkpoint (lol), and delivered it safely to Ukrainian forces.

Good on you, Mr. Green.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on April 25, 2022, 10:41:38 PM
So how about the cruise missiles?  How many does Russia have that function.  10,000? 1200? 56?

I don't know, but is Vlad the Mad just going to keep pounding Ukrainian cities into dust while his three day 'special operation' continues to fail spectacularly. I  guess Vlad will decide how much carnage to unleash to cover for his miscalculations.       
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 25, 2022, 11:15:31 PM
Quote from: ferdmonger on April 25, 2022, 10:41:38 PMSo how about the cruise missiles?  How many does Russia have that function.  10,000? 1200? 56?
I don't know, but Russia's precision-guided stockpile is down to about 30% of the pre-war stockpile, though they can still produce more, albeit slowly.  Every day, the Ukrainians are shooting down quite a few of them, and they seem to be getting better at it.  Plus, many of the Russian missile strikes either go off course or don't detonate (unless they were planning on hitting that livestock pen), which is a bit of a problem.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 12:07:04 AM
So, Russian "intelligence" tried to fabricate and then foil an alleged neo-nazi plot in progress in their midst (besides the Z thing) and they arrested a "suspect".

Among his possessions are a book signed "signature unclear" (someone was apparently instructed to pen an illegible signature on the book, but instead literally wrote the words "signature unclear" in the book, fully legible)

Also, 3 copies of the Sims 3 computer game (apparently, the original instructions were "3 Sim cards" but something must have gotten lost in translation)

No wonder Russia lost the information war.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 26, 2022, 12:22:14 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 12:07:04 AMSo, Russian "intelligence" tried to fabricate and then foil an alleged neo-nazi plot in progress in their midst (besides the Z thing) and they arrested a "suspect".

Among his possessions are a book signed "signature unclear" (someone was apparently instructed to pen an illegible signature on the book, but instead literally wrote the words "signature unclear" in the book, fully legible)

Also, 3 copies of the Sims 3 computer game (apparently, the original instructions were "3 Sim cards" but something must have gotten lost in translation)

No wonder Russia lost the information war.
Two months ago, and I would have said you've been duped... there is no way a countries government is THAT stupid (besides maybe North Korea).

Now, I don't know if this is a joke and I doubt it is.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on April 26, 2022, 01:17:04 AM
Quote from: Dark Lightning on April 24, 2022, 08:55:46 AMMy eldest son is currently at Incirlik AFB. He was set to rotate back to the US but is stuck, for now, because of the war.

Sorry to hear that. Adana is a big, mad city. People there are like Texans. Hot headed, cocky. It's very hot, but it has good hot, spicy food like the people and the weather, lol. If he likes it, he has the chance to eat the best kebap of every kind in the world there. (Around all that region.) It's diverse and there are very 'unique' communities in the region. How long has he been there? Does he like it?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 08:43:38 AM
Quote from: Shiranu on April 26, 2022, 12:22:14 AMTwo months ago, and I would have said you've been duped... there is no way a countries government is THAT stupid (besides maybe North Korea).

Now, I don't know if this is a joke and I doubt it is.

It's very much a real thing  (https://www.vice.com/en/article/88gpmg/russia-sims-3)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 26, 2022, 09:21:43 AM
Quote from: drunkenshoe on April 26, 2022, 01:17:04 AMSorry to hear that. Adana is a big, mad city. People there are like Texans. Hot headed, cocky. It's very hot, but it has good hot, spicy food like the people and the weather, lol. If he likes it, he has the chance to eat the best kebap of every kind in the world there. (Around all that region.) It's diverse and there are very 'unique' communities in the region. How long has he been there? Does he like it?


Thanks! He was there about 3 months before the war started, and was a week away from going back to the states. I'm pretty sure that the people are restricted to the base, atm. He may not be able to return until the war is over. I'll bet he loves the food. He likes spicy, for sure.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 10:51:58 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/xvTSDPll.jpg)

Man, I love their sense of humor!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 12:32:37 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on April 26, 2022, 03:42:02 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 12:32:37 PM

The string has to be under tension for his comms system to work...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 05:03:11 PM
Explosions, fire at two oil depots in Russia (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/04/25/explosions-at-fuel-depots-in-russias-bryansk-what-we-know-so-far/)

Approx 100km from the border with Ukraine, so who knows how they started.  Though I do note that Putin accused the UK of "provoking" Ukraine to strike targets in Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/russia-warns-britain-provoking-ukraine-2022-04-26/).  One would think that Russia invading Ukraine was the main thing that provoked them to allegedly strike Russia.  Maybe don't take a swing if you don't wanna get hit.  🤷

There's yet another mysterious fire in Russia, this one at the Ussuriysk airbase (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_H4LXnqcd4) to the far east in Russia so there's zero chance Ukraine is involved.  Strange.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 26, 2022, 06:59:28 PM
"Hey, I'm allowed to punch down, you aren't supposed to fight back!" :rolleyes: The danger, of course, is that the people of Russia will rally behind Putin if Ukraine attacks on their soil. It's a losing game.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 07:37:39 PM
Russian gas imports to Poland halted (https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-gas-idAFW8N2V500Z)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 26, 2022, 08:52:14 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 07:37:39 PMRussian gas imports to Poland halted (https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-gas-idAFW8N2V500Z)
Welp, given how much Poland has given up... I think they are hopefully prepared for this in the short term and aren't caught off guard. Now it's up to other, wealthier countries of NATO to start paying up...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on April 26, 2022, 09:11:16 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 08:43:38 AMIt's very much a real thing  (https://www.vice.com/en/article/88gpmg/russia-sims-3)

Good grief.  You can actually see fold in the Nazi t-shirt from the freshly unwrapped package.  (Note to Russian agents - at least make the shirt look worn next time.)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 09:16:56 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on April 26, 2022, 08:52:14 PMWelp, given how much Poland has given up... I think they are hopefully prepared for this in the short term and aren't caught off guard. Now it's up to other, wealthier countries of NATO to start paying up...

They were one of the first european countries to propose scrapping Russian fossil fuels (https://www.politico.eu/article/follow-my-lead-on-scrapping-russian-energy-poland-tells-the-eu/) so I assume they know what they're doing, and they were going to phase out Russian fossil fuels entirely by the end of the year regardless.  This just speeds up the timetable.

This abrupt shift is hard, but imho Russia is making a big mistake in forcing the issue by cutting countries off and expecting them to come crawling back with briefcases full of rubles.  Not gonna happen.  This move just deprives Moscow of funds it desperately needs and otherwise would have gotten for at least a few more months.  (STUPID!)

Getting abruptly cut off hurts Western countries, but not as bad as Russia abruptly not being able to sell to anyone but India and filling existing contracts with China.  Really boneheaded, emotionally-driven stuff that is going to hurt them long-term because now all Western countries anticipate to get cut off at any time at Putin's whim and will seek out other arrangements.

And once the West stops trading with Russia, Russia has ZERO leverage over them.  And it goes without saying that when they stop trading with Russia, it will be a looong time before that trade resumes.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 09:45:53 PM
Some dumb comments by a US official:

U.S. Weapons Stockpile Risks Running Low (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-26/ukraine-latest-russia-signals-interest-in-talks-with-the-u-s) (le gasp!)

QuoteU.S. weapons stockpiles could run out in several months if the Biden administration continues to send war-fighting supplies to Ukraine, defense experts told Congress. "It's a huge threat to our security," Ellen Lord, former under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said at an Armed Services Committee hearing.

Lord said the U.S. has sent almost a quarter of its stockpile of Stinger missiles to Ukraine. David Berteau, president of the Professional Services Council, said that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. is readying almost one-third of available weapons stockpiles with no current contracts to replenish them.
Point #1 - this conflict is only 2 months old and it has already gotten to the point where Russia is doing its last big push with massed tanks.  They're on plan B and there is no plan C.

This is the most pivotal phase of the war.  There is no better time to send them that doesn't involve time travel.  You know a bad time to send them?  Months from now!  If you send them now, you won't have to send any months from now.  So don't worry about months from now.

Point #2 - How in the kentucky-fried hell does dropping to two-thirds of a stockpile of Stingers endanger US security in any way, shape, or form?  Who's going to invade, Canada?

And more generally, stockpiles are made to be used in a crisis.  This is the mother of all crises.  Unless there's a hell of a compelling argument why those rockets should be sitting in a warehouse instead of in the hands of people who are going to use them to defend women and children (and also curb Russian expansion in eastern europe), then get them to Poland asap!  500 a day, if you can.  Whatever you've got, if you can't.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 27, 2022, 02:43:45 AM
QuotePoint #2 - How in the kentucky-fried hell does dropping to two-thirds of a stockpile of Stingers endanger US security in any way, shape, or form?  Who's going to invade, Canada?

China, in some form, would be most likely to wage war on us; though I would wager it would almost certainly be a war of soft power rather than brute force. We are so beholden to Chinese production that if they were to sanction us... it would be like we were Russia under EU sanctions.

From there, just let society collapse in America and then come in and clean up, either through "peacekeeping" operations & "reeducation", corrupt officials turning American citizens into slaves for China, or warlords spawned through partisan ideologies and climate change limiting resources.

Realistically that fight will be within the next decade or two as climate change is ramping up significantly and causing resource scarcity (war in the world's breadbasket doesn't help either) - we can either prepare for it and try to avoid it, or stumble into it like we did with Russia.

We can still show strength and avoid falling to our own arrogance, but the way society is progressing I'm not going to hold my breath; we are taught from birth to be arrogant and entitled, or at the very least idolize people with that "fuck over anyone to get what you want"-business mindset or, even worse, "influencers".

It's not judgement, it just is what it is.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 27, 2022, 08:33:54 AM
Quote from: Shiranu on April 27, 2022, 02:43:45 AMChina, in some form, would be most likely to wage war on us;
They could, but it'd destroy both countries' economies, not to mention making Fallout happen irl.

Besides, Chinese ambitions at the moment lie with Hong Kong, Taiwan, and other parts of southeast Asia.  Unlike Russia, they've never had global imperial ambitions.

If anything, China is viewing Russia as a prime example of what NOT to do.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 27, 2022, 11:17:30 AM
Putin's forces struggling in Ukraine because "they don't like to fight in the rain" (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/vladimir-putin-troops-russia-suffering-losses-in-ukraine-donbas-western-officials-b996578.html)

Then go home!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 27, 2022, 12:34:33 PM
Russian ammo depot burns in Belograd region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/27/7342335/) (yes, again)

QuoteThe governor of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Gladkov reported that, according to preliminary data, an ammunition depot is burning near the village of Stara Nelidovka.

When asked about the mysterious explosions in 3 Russian regions (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/27/7342386/), the Advisor to President Zellensky had this to say:

QuoteIf you [Russians] decided to attack another country, to indiscriminately kill people there, to drive tanks over the bodies of civilians – and if you are using depots in your regions to supply the weapons of this mass murder, then sooner or later you will have to repay your debts. You won't be able to sit it out given the intensity and the scale of Russian military invasion in Ukraine.

And so the disarmament of murderers' depots in the Belgorod and Voronezh Regions is an entirely natural process. Karma is a b***h."
Suffice it to say that no tears were shed and Ukrainian's pre-war stockpile of Fs has been completely depleted.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 27, 2022, 02:21:48 PM
US fed Ukraine intel that helped Ukraine shoot down a russian plane carrying hundreds of invaders (hhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-fed-ukraine-intel-on-russian-plans-that-helped-it-move-artillery-from-strikes-and-shoot-down-a-russian-plane-report-says/ar-AAWDHkH)

QuoteThe US passed intelligence on planned Russian missile strikes to Ukraine so it could move military assets out of the way, often with moments to spare, NBC News reported, citing US officials.

"The Russian military has literally been cratering empty fields where air defenses were once set up," a US official told NBC News. "It has had an enormous impact on the Russian military's ability on the ground."

QuoteIn another case, US intelligence helped Ukraine shoot down a Russian transport plane containing hundreds of troops that was headed to help seize Hostomel Airport near Kyiv, NBC News reported.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdFGvhIXgAMa4TI.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on April 27, 2022, 08:39:59 PM
This is pretty special:

"If you [Russians] decided to attack another country, to indiscriminately kill people there, to drive tanks over the bodies of civilians – and if you are using depots in your regions to supply the weapons of this mass murder, then sooner or later you will have to repay your debts. You won't be able to sit it out given the intensity and the scale of Russian military invasion in Ukraine. And so the disarmament of murderers' depots in the Belgorod and Voronezh Regions is an entirely natural process. Karma is a b***h."

Poor Russia is getting a boo-boo lip now that Ukraine is striking back.  Those dirty bastards are actually hitting oil depots and weapon storage facilities.  And remember, Lavrov warned us if this continues, he's going to hold his breath until he turns blue and then nuke the world, because Ukraine is being naughty.

In a year, their economy will be in shambles, their military depleted, and their citizens angry.  Nice way to run a railroad Vlad.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 27, 2022, 09:35:46 PM
I really, really, really hope that they don't actually use nukes. Russia has 14 time zones, and that is their main reason that they can survive a nuclear holocaust- the vast land area.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Blackleaf on April 27, 2022, 10:39:19 PM
Quote from: Dark Lightning on April 27, 2022, 09:35:46 PMI really, really, really hope that they don't actually use nukes. Russia has 14 time zones, and that is their main reason that they can survive a nuclear holocaust- the vast land area.

If Putin launches nuclear bombs, it'll be the last mistake he ever makes. Assuming his military could even get the bombs off the ground. Given their recent performance, they might just accidentally nuke their own country.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 27, 2022, 11:29:59 PM
Any idiot leaders who start talking about committing nuclear war or survivability, needs to be executed by their subjects immediately. BTW, Russian people should know they have little survivability advantage (if any) as they are clustered in urban areas at nearly the same rate as in the US and they have fewer cities. Hundreds of millions of people will die and the political entities of Russia and the US will effectively cease to exist and vast regions such as New England and Moscow will be totally uninhabitable for generations.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on April 27, 2022, 11:47:21 PM
Vlad could have started this war by sending a low yield nuke onto Kiev.  He didn't do it because it was unacceptable. It still is - only more so.

It is a sign of massive weakness that makes these statements absurd.

Vlad.  Find a bunker.  Save the world time.   
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 27, 2022, 11:48:17 PM
Ukraine to be equipped with NATO weapons (https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519405553390342146?s=20&t=2G3Jnwt4OFY2LyAb8AgDXg)

Russia has a bloody lip right now, but it's going to get its teeth kicked in if this continues.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on April 28, 2022, 12:34:25 AM
Well, shit. If it boils down to a nuclear exchange, I'll shoot myself first to avoid radiation sickness. I'm not afraid of death, but I've had enough pain in my life, and radiation sickness is painful. This is the closest I've been to that feeling since Kennedy and Khrushchev faced off over missiles in Cuba. I was 10 YO at that time, and distinctly recall "drop" drills.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 28, 2022, 05:58:03 AM
I think I'll pull through.

Russia has threatened a lot of stuff over the past two months, including attacking most of its neighbors, attacking arms shipments, even attacking any country that donates arms. They even threatened the UK in particular with...something a few days ago.  Last I checked, the UK is still standing.

In fact, they haven't made good on virtually any threat, except for very small, petty threats like cutting Poland off from gas.

So why sorry about words alone?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 28, 2022, 08:37:42 AM
Russian losses accelerate: 400 KIA in one day (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/28/7342601/)

They also lost 31 tanks,  47 armored vehicles, and 10 artillery in one day.

Unsustainable.  Their front will collapse and then they will either rout or be overrun.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 28, 2022, 11:18:46 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 28, 2022, 05:58:03 AMI think I'll pull through.

Russia has threatened a lot of stuff over the past two months, including attacking most of its neighbors, attacking arms shipments, even attacking any country that donates arms. They even threatened the UK in particular with...something a few days ago.  Last I checked, the UK is still standing.

In fact, they haven't made good on virtually any threat, except for very small, petty threats like cutting Poland off from gas.

So why sorry about words alone?
Just because Putler may feel like a man with nothing left to lose if Russia gets little or nothing for all the cost. Would he be done? Could he continue on after that?

John F. Kennedy said: 'Nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war.'

Use of tactical nukes (or even hardcore use of chemical weapons) by Russia in Ukraine would be particularly tough for NATO to deal with. What is the correct response? During a recent war game, the US responded by nuking Belarus. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 28, 2022, 01:20:24 PM
Quote from: Cassia on April 28, 2022, 11:18:46 AMJust because Putler may feel like a man with nothing left to lose if Russia gets little or nothing for all the cost. Would he be done? Could he continue on after that?
Perhaps Putin is a suicidal man, perhaps not (personally, I doubt he would kill the only thing he cherishes).

But Putin derives his power from oligarchs who most definitely are not suicidal.  If faced with the utter ruin of Russia or the removal of Putin, they will make the obvious choice.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on April 28, 2022, 03:04:07 PM
Problem for the oligarchs is that to try and fail means death as well.
And with how closely the kgb watches them, trying to arrange something must feel like a suïcide mission.

Honestly, I wouldn´t be surprised  if it turned out putin had those two oligarchs recently killed, along with their family, even without them trying to conspire against him. If only to make it look like they did so that other oligarchs would not even think about turning on him. That he fabricated his own insurrectionists to prevent a real insurrection.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 28, 2022, 07:32:15 PM
Yesterday, Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 enemy air targets: (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3470267-ukrainian-military-down-15-enemy-air-targets.html) 5 cruise missiles, 9 drones, 1 aircraft.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 28, 2022, 10:41:42 PM
Countering PuZin propaganda:  Russia's hand was forced by NATO expansion

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 29, 2022, 06:28:34 AM
Belarus, Russia want to form "union state" (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-belarus-union-state-former-soviet-nations-1701935)

Some sort of Union of ex-Soviet Socialist Republics.

Hmmm...now where have I heard of this before?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 29, 2022, 09:55:00 AM
Slovakia said it would donate all its Mig-29s to Ukraine (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1519994641319354368) if its allies will protect its skies until it gets new F-16s in 2024.

Well, Poland just offered to patrol Slovakia's airspace in the meantime, enabling Slovakia to go through with the Mig donation!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 29, 2022, 10:08:28 AM
I do hope China is paying attention. It seems NATO did let Putin slide for too long and leaders thought he was a reasonable man. Maybe he was, maybe his health is failing now, and he wants his big-time legacy. Well, that's not really working out for him, is it?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 29, 2022, 02:04:41 PM
US House overwhelmingly approves Lend-Lease for Ukraine (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/us/politics/ukraine-lend-lease-arms.html)

They could've pushed it through before the two-week recess, but c'est la vie
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 29, 2022, 02:16:55 PM
Quote from: Cassia on April 29, 2022, 10:08:28 AMI do hope China is paying attention.
I do, too.  The moral of the story is that sometimes the West will let things slide and sometimes they'll come down on you like a ton of bricks. 

And if you don't pull a fait accompli in the first week, they will rally around the defending country and do everything they can to disrupt the aggressor country. We're talking unprecedented levels of cooperation. If you rely on imports in any way, kiss those goodbye.

And you better bring your A-game to the information war, because every dirty deed and secret on the aggressor side is going to get out, while the defenders get extremely sympathetic coverage.  The defending leader is going to be a world hero and other leaders are going to hang by his/her every word.

Meanwhile, the world is going to watch your troops get droned on TikTok and they're going to cheer.

If you think you're ready for that, you're not.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on April 29, 2022, 11:22:04 PM
Vlad's in a corner
Oh what will he do
I really don't know
and neither do you

He could be insane
Or medically sick
Or just plain suffrin'
From little man's dick





Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 30, 2022, 05:58:33 AM
So, a Russian commander had just finished a battle and was doing a walk-and-talk on camera and was abruptly killed by shelling.

The lack of training is really showing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 30, 2022, 06:06:40 AM
Not-so-friendly-fire:  Two groups of Russian troops fire on each other (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520097132463759362), dead and wounded in both groups
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 30, 2022, 09:34:27 AM
Meet the heroes: Javelin/NLAW operator destroyed 6 armored vehicles in one day (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3471295-javelin-nlaw-operator-destroys-six-russian-armored-vehicles-in-one-day.html)

Quote"It would be very difficult for us to contain the enemy without Western anti-tank weapons. After all, Russians have a lot of equipment and they spared neither hardware, nor personnel at the beginning of the war. And now the situation is completely different. The enemy knows we have Javelins and NLAWs, they fear them like plague, and this fear paralyzes them and undermines their morale," the soldier added.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on April 30, 2022, 11:53:39 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRkhk-XXIAEv9T5?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 30, 2022, 02:25:08 PM
Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian strike on an invader command post near Izium. (https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1520463695813484545)  Several dead officers, potentially another dead general.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on April 30, 2022, 05:12:34 PM
One small step down for man:  Russia to quit ISS over sanctions (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-30/russia-will-quit-international-space-station-over-sanctions)

After threatening to colony drop the ISS last month, no less.  Good riddance.

Russia might've been first in space, but it has lagged far behind and now looks like it can't keep its gaze off its neighbors long enough to turn it to the stars.

Its economy is in too poor a shape to pursue both space and military conquest, so its dictator has made his choice.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on April 30, 2022, 07:52:37 PM
Could be a massive moment for Elon to step up and really cement his place in power if he invested in maintaining the I.S.S..

I don't know if that is a good thing given the precedent it sets, but it is what it is going to be... so it at least would be him instead of someone like Bezos or Zuckerberg.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 01, 2022, 08:29:48 AM
Russian fascists prepare for Putin parade (https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1520478877159723008?s=21&t=Us71Vy0MHi0jB5xqCrQLLw)

Those armbands seem awfully familiar...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 01, 2022, 08:40:31 AM
Ukraine's Security Services foil Russian plot to shoot down passenger plane and blame it on Ukraine (https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/security-service-of-ukraine-neutralized-russia-srg-which-was-going-to-shoot-down-a-passenger-plane-and-blame-ukraine)

If that seems far fetched, remember when a passenger plane went down over Donbass and the Russians blamed the Ukrainians even though that area was controlled by the "rebels"?  And for years, no one really quite knew what happened but then we found out that it was without a doubt the Russians (mild shock) and then nothing much happened after that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 01, 2022, 09:36:49 AM
Russia kludging together depleted units, sending them back into battle with low morale (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3471183-many-units-of-russian-troops-suffering-from-weakened-morale-british-intelligence.html)

There's a reason why you reinforce shattered units with fresh troops.  Otherwise, you just get shell-shocked troops staring into the campfire and telling stories about how half their unit was wiped out with equally shell-shocked troops with similar stories.  And if morale dips down below a certain point, crazy things start happening...

Quote"Shortcomings in Russian tactical co-ordination remain. A lack of unit-level skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully leverage its combat mass, despite localized improvements," the ministry said.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 01, 2022, 05:02:20 PM
In southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces destroy an electronic warfare system (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3471882-army-destroys-russian-ew-system-two-drones-over-40-invaders-in-southern-ukraine.html), 3 AA guns, an AA system, 42 invaders, and 2 drones.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 01, 2022, 10:11:51 PM
On the other front, Russia is having more mysterious fires.  (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61252785?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=626edb5a6b7942142fe96397%26Fire%20at%20a%20Russian%20defence%20ministry%20site%20-%20Belgorod%20governor%262022-05-01T19%3A38%3A43.753Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:92880bce-aed3-4ec9-b84c-2d0a322e94ed&pinned_post_asset_id=626edb5a6b7942142fe96397&pinned_post_type=share) A fire broke out at a defense ministry site in Belgorod (voted Russia's most flammable region in 2022), and a rail bridge collapsed near Kursk.  They claim sabotage on the second one.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 02, 2022, 06:48:13 AM
Truly desperate:  these geniuses are considering a new "zerg rush (https://mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1520909866717564933?t=WbOPTtA6gODtavq2iCAyGQ&s=19)" strategy (i.e. human wave attack (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_wave_attack))

Since the invention of the machine gun, human wave attacks have been a catastrophically poor choice.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 02, 2022, 02:21:37 PM
In central Russia, a mysterious fire broke out at a munitions factory (https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1521113814158168069), killing 2 workers
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 02, 2022, 09:26:17 PM
(https://i.redd.it/59evbbrlo2x81.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on May 02, 2022, 11:58:08 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 02, 2022, 09:26:17 PM(https://i.redd.it/59evbbrlo2x81.jpg)
I really hope they don't ever discover just how backwards they look to us; not the first time Russia has attacked West and been about 100 years behind in technology either and I don't know what someone made aware that they exist at that level of cringe is capable of.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 03, 2022, 08:44:07 AM
In Russia, mysterious fire engulfs pro-Kremlin publishing house (https://polanddaily24.com/4690-large-warehouse-of-the-pro-kremlin-prosveshcheniye-publishing-house-is-on-fire-video) (the company that would've scrubbed all references to Ukraine from textbooks)

Handy map of most of the mysterious fires so far:

(https://i.redd.it/2m76hvqdy8x81.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 03, 2022, 09:00:59 AM
Ukrainian forces destroy 122 invaders (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/3/7343622/), two patrol boats in the Black Sea (with Bayaraktar drones), and a recon drone approaching Odesa from the sea.

It appears that the Russian offensive in the south has petered out as they focus on regrouping what's left and fortifying their positions.  A losing strategy.

In the meantime, increasingly advanced western hardware is rolling into Ukraine (even moreso with the looming US Lend-Lease) and Ukrainian forces are being trained to use it.  In time, Ukrainian forces will be able to flatten whatever paltry fortifications the Russians have made and retake territory easily.

With mounting sanctions, dwindling supplies, and unsustainable attrition, time is not on Russia's side.  Time is never on an invader's side.

If they were smart, they'd call it quits now and spare themselves a horrendous and embarrassing military defeat later.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 03, 2022, 10:01:35 AM
Russian-Israeli relations deteriorate even further (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-with-nasty-outing-and-hitler-comments-russia-and-israel-are-on-a-collision-course-1.10777297)

(https://i.redd.it/zlfzd4hdd9x81.png)

I can't imagine why...

Russia also defended its "nazi" accusations by saying that it's possible for a Jewish political leader to be nazi-like (which might've been a good point if they stopped there) because Hitler was Jewish and also a nazi (big yikes)

Russia has also warmed up to Iran quite a bit, bombed a holocaust memorial in Ukraine, and started goose-stepping with uniforms practically identical to Nazi uniforms (literally the only thing missing is the swastika)

Needless to say, Israel is not happy with this deliberate embrace of many Nazi norms under the ludicrous guise of fighting nazism.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on May 03, 2022, 10:30:16 AM
I have thoroughly enjoyed these updates and briefings from Hydra.  Personally, I would not have started such a venture, because I was sure Russia was unstoppable.  I don't know if Hydra was lucky or if he was exceptionally well equipped from the start with knowledge about Russia's lack of offensive capabilities.  I am also surprised at Biden's aggressive support of the Ukraine.  While, I thought such a stance was an absolute necessity, and that anyone with a brain in the US would agree, I didn't see this coming from our leadership.

Russia must be stopped.  I would like to see their entire military infrastructure shredded into scrap metal, and all further Russian nonsense be stopped permanently. Russia should be defeated and divided up between all European nations, or simply annexed by Poland and Politburo replaced by a puppet government who would then reeducate the Russian people; In camps, if necessary.

OK, I got carried away, but I can dream.  I am coming to love the Ukrainian people.  I think they should be entitled to help themselves to a large slice of Russia, the slice that includes Moscow.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on May 03, 2022, 10:42:23 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 03, 2022, 10:01:35 AMI can't imagine why...

Russia also defended its "nazi" accusations by saying that it's possible for a Jewish political leader to be nazi-like (which might've been a good point if they stopped there) because Hitler was Jewish and also a nazi (big yikes)

Russia has also warmed up to Iran quite a bit, bombed a holocaust memorial in Ukraine, and started goose-stepping with uniforms practically identical to Nazi uniforms (literally the only thing missing is the swastika)

Needless to say, Israel is not happy with this deliberate embrace of many Nazi norms under the ludicrous guise of fighting nazism.

It was the recent memory of the Soviet caused "Holodomor" famine (1932-33) that took the lives of 3-5 million Ukrainians that would result in many Ukrainians deciding that Germans were the lesser evil. Some did become Nazis but most just suffered terribly as they involuntarily hosted huge battles in their country. Being a proxy caught between the East and West is their entire history. Hell, I bet there are more Nazi types in the US than in Ukraine these days.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 03, 2022, 02:08:51 PM
Quote from: SGOS on May 03, 2022, 10:30:16 AMI have thoroughly enjoyed these updates and briefings from Hydra.
Thanks!

I've been trying to make a sort of public record of the day-to-day events so I have a solid timeline to look back on this conflict.

But mostly, it has been to share good news from Ukraine during the darkest days early on in the conflict.

QuotePersonally, I would not have started such a venture, because I was sure Russia was unstoppable.  I don't know if Hydra was lucky or if he was exceptionally well equipped from the start with knowledge about Russia's lack of offensive capabilities.
I had no idea.  I'm not a military analyst in the slightest.  But I have a broad familiarity with both the recent history and principal actors.

A week or two in, I realized that captured Russian troops were somewhat...lacking...in many ways.  Combined with reports of significant losses of troops, tanks, officers, etc, it doesn't take a genius to figure out which way the wind is blowing.

QuoteRussia must be stopped.  I would like to see their entire military infrastructure shredded into scrap metal, and all further Russian nonsense be stopped permanently.
Same.  Ideally, the white-blue faction takes power and puts an end to the war and any further expansionist plans.

At the rate this is going, I don't think the US should lift sanctions in any deal that doesn't involve the complete restoration of Ukraine's territory AND significant reparations.  Depending on Russia's possible use of additional WMDs and additional war crimes, I might also tack on some form of demilitarization and/or nuclear disarmament.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on May 03, 2022, 03:48:54 PM
Small update on the Israel - Russia situation: Russia today responded to Israel's criticisms of calling Jews Nazis (and essentially blaming the Holocaust on Jews) was to tweet that Israel just didn't know what they were talking about and needs to learn their history better...

https://twitter.com/MID_RF/status/1521388645516980224?s=20&t=7d3yB7Fa53KHyq15J3FiEA

Quote
We paid attention to the anti-historical statements of the Israeli Foreign Minister @yairlapid
, largely explaining the course of the current Israeli government to support the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv.
 
☝️ About whether there are actually neo-Nazis in Ukraine: https://vk.cc/cdeLe6



I wonder why Russia is so hesitant to bring up the Neo-Nazis in their own government and society, or their long history of anti-Antisemitism and atrocities against Jewish people, or the rampant Anti-Antisemitism that permeated the oligarchy since the Imperial days that, unlike Germany, was never purged of their upper society... hmmm...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-cosmopolitan_campaign

QuoteBor'ba s kosmopolitizmom was a thinly disguised antisemitic campaign in the Soviet Union which began in late 1948.[1] Jews were characterized as rootless cosmopolitans and were targeted for persecution.

...

As a result of the campaign, many Soviet Jews were fired from their jobs and Jews were unofficially banned from taking certain jobs. For example, in 1947, Jews constituted 18 per cent of Soviet scientific workers, but by 1970 this number declined to 7 per cent, which was still higher than about 3 to 4 per cent of the total Soviet population at that time they comprised.[12]

Anything Jewish became suppressed by the Soviet authorities. For example, the Yiddish verse sung by Mikhoels was cut out from the famous lullaby sung in turns by persons of different ethnicities in the Soviet classic 1936 movie Circus, restored during destalinization.[13]

American historian Walter Laqueur noted: "When, in the 1950s under Stalin, the Jews of the Soviet Union came under severe attack and scores were executed, it was under the banner of anti-Zionism rather than anti-Semitism, which had been given a bad name by Adolf Hitler."[14]

This was some of the "nice" Russian anti-Antisemitism after the death of Hitler.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 03, 2022, 03:58:40 PM
Yeah, they really screwed the pooch when it comes to Israeli sensibilities.  Israel is spoiled for choice in how they could possibly retailiate.

Edit - "inclined to increase aid to Ukraine" (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-inclined-to-increase-ukraine-aid-but-support-to-remain-largely-declarative-1.10776431)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 03, 2022, 08:13:20 PM
(https://i.redd.it/vz6q0qsi0cx81.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on May 03, 2022, 09:14:21 PM
Attacks on electrical stations in Lviv today - parts of Lviv without power.  More strikes on railroad facilities in central Ukraine.  Vlad apparently knows the western weapons are getting in.  Will he expand his long-range lobbing of missiles into Ukraine to take out infrastructure? I'm surprised he hasn't done more of this already, especially since his ground forces seem to be at best in a quagmire. If he is cognizant of his own folly, he may become even more dangerous. At this point I don't even know if he has the missiles or the abibility to do so.

   
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 04, 2022, 04:57:08 PM
Quote from: ferdmonger on May 03, 2022, 09:14:21 PMAttacks on electrical stations in Lviv today - parts of Lviv without power.  More strikes on railroad facilities in central Ukraine.  Vlad apparently knows the western weapons are getting in.  Will he expand his long-range lobbing of missiles into Ukraine to take out infrastructure? I'm surprised he hasn't done more of this already, especially since his ground forces seem to be at best in a quagmire. If he is cognizant of his own folly, he may become even more dangerous. At this point I don't even know if he has the missiles or the abibility to do so.
Russia has been stepping up long-range bombardment, possibly to intimidate and possibly to distract from their faltering offensive, to give a misleading impression of success.  In some places, like Kharkiv (https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-retakes-villages-near-kharkiv-easing-pressure-on-battered-city-11651669856), they've actually lost ground and run the risk of falling apart just like the northern front.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on May 04, 2022, 07:40:59 PM
And a thank you to Hydra as well.  Thanks for your coverage.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 04, 2022, 08:14:24 PM
Ukraine says that it blew up a Russian command post near Kherson (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521542041376899077) and I honestly don't know if this is old news or new news.  Dated May 3rd, though.

Edit - it's new news (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3474008-enemy-operations-center-and-three-ammunition-depots-destroyed-in-southern-ukraine.html)

Quotewe destroyed an enemy command operations center, three ammunition depots, one fuel and oils depot and several groups of enemy troops and military equipment. The total losses are yet to be reported
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 04, 2022, 08:37:22 PM
The Ukrainians also struck the temporarily-occupied Snake Island with a Bayaraktar drone (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-04-22/h_b69ecc9b7672d584d0ce6f9f370692b6).  I don't know what they hit, but the drone footage showed several secondary explosions.  So less search-and-rescue and more broom-and-dustpan.  No famous last words this time.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 04, 2022, 10:34:44 PM
Russia loses extremely modern main battle tank (https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1521893220430622721?cxt=HHwWgsC93cL07J4qAAAA)

These tanks were just put in service in 2016 and they cost several million USD each.

(https://images.viacbs.tech/uri/mgid:arc:imageassetref:shared.southpark.us.en:b1ede551-1aba-419e-9812-06fc24fb6fd7?quality=0.7&width=660&height=371&crop=true)

They would replace it, but oopsie, the only place that builds them (Uralvagonzavod) has been sanctioned to death.  Literally irreplaceable.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 05, 2022, 08:17:07 AM
Yesterday, in eastern Ukraine, defenders repulsed 11 attacks (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/4/7344088/), destroying 5 tanks, 2 APCs, 2 IFVs, 3 artillery, 2 planes, and 2 drones.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on May 05, 2022, 08:59:12 AM
Apparently, the Ukraine has been getting intelligence from the US.  Last night, the NYT carried this story, in which the Pentagon claims it led the Ukraine to the positions of many of Russia's generals and other top commanders that the Ukrainians snuffed.  It also, informed them of troop movements and other targets.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 05, 2022, 09:22:39 AM
Russia will lose, say Russian soldiers returning from war (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-lose-ukraine-war-south-ossetia-invasion-soldiers-refuse-fight-1703302)

QuoteThey also told Bibilov that artillery fire missed targets by 2 kilometers (one-and-a-quarter miles), but officers in command brushed off complaints of incorrect coordinates, while troops faced constant shelling due to inadequate battlefield intel.
2km variance.  No wonder they hit livestock pens and apartment buildings.

And no wonder they've been unable to stop Western arms shipments.  They did damage transportation infrastructure, but they were possibly aiming at the shipments.  Or maybe they were aiming at the infrastructure and hoped they'd get lucky and bag an arms shipment in the process.  Regardless, the shipments haven't been hindered so far.

QuoteOne soldier claimed that 99 percent of the equipment they were given did not work, while another said three out of 10 tanks could not shoot.

QuoteBibilov challenged the soldiers for saying that they believe Moscow will eventually be defeated by Ukraine.

"The Russians have seen a lot of wars, Napoleon reached Moscow and, in order not to surrender Moscow, the Russians burned their own city. Never think that the Russians will lose," Bibilov told the group.
LOL, that's some military-grade copium right there.  "We won't lose.  Hey, remember that time we were losing and burned down our own city out of desperation?"  Quality encouragement right there.

And yes, Russia has lost more than its fair share of wars.  War in Afghanistan, the first Chechan war, and the war against Japan off the top of my head.  Got absolutely crushed by the Mongols, though just about everyone did.  Lost the Cold War, though that technically wasn't a war.

Russia absolutely can lose this war and is well on its way to doing just that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 05, 2022, 04:21:06 PM
Quote from: SGOS on May 05, 2022, 08:59:12 AMApparently, the Ukraine has been getting intelligence from the US.  Last night, the NYT carried this story, in which the Pentagon claims it led the Ukraine to the positions of many of Russia's generals and other top commanders that the Ukrainians snuffed.  It also, informed them of troop movements and other targets.
Yes.  In some cases, they spotted Russian encampments/convoys and let the Ukrainians have at 'em.  In other cases, they spotted Russian artillery preparing to fire and warned the Ukrainians to scoot, sometimes with mere moments to spare.  US intel has been helping the Ukrainians immensely.

Edit - US intel reportedly had a hand in the destruction of the Moskva.  The Russians won't soon forget.  Good.  They should bear in mind every time they lift a rifle or lift an anchor that the world is watching.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 05, 2022, 04:37:45 PM
Russia to create its own ideologically-correct version of Wikipedia (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1522218303325806592?t=qp8G1QCbUdJDcWvDObbHPQ&s=19)

So basically, Conservapedia but for ruskies.

Why not just use Conservapedia?  They already hate all the same people.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 05, 2022, 10:10:42 PM
'We can make adjustments': Bulgaria to repair Ukrainian military vehicles (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bulgaria-approves-repairs-ukrainian-military-equipment-not-military-aid-2022-05-04/)

QuoteEuropean Union and NATO member state Bulgaria has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, supported sanctions against Moscow, refused to pay for Russian gas with roubles and hosted over 90,000 Ukrainian refugees.

QuoteBulgarian arms exports have increased threefold since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, official data showed. The country does not export arms to Ukraine directly but officials have said that they cannot control what buyers, mainly from EU countries, would like to do further with these exports.
Plausible deniability.  Wink wink.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on May 06, 2022, 02:28:31 AM
QuoteLOL, that's some military-grade copium right there.  "We won't lose.  Hey, remember that time we were losing and burned down our own city out of desperation?"  Quality encouragement right there.
 

No, no, no - losing your capital is winning, because it shows you are willing to destroy everything you own just to not REALLY lose... because nothing says winning like losing every last possession and burning your own fields so you're not even worth invading anymore.

It's kinda like in chess, when you lose half your pawns in the first 3 turns and then eat your king so he cant be checkmated.

/s

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 06, 2022, 08:58:22 AM
Kremlin to Moskva dead's families: ship sank on accident, no war death compensation for you (https://www.kyivpost.com/eastern-europe/kremlin-to-family-members-of-moskva-cruiser-crew-ship-sank-by-accident-no-war-compensation.html)

As predicted, cheapskate-grifters sitting on swimming pools worth of roubles whose promises mean nothing because they will never honor their word.

Sadly not a new thing (https://meduza.io/en/feature/2017/09/29/dead-but-not-killed)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 06, 2022, 09:11:03 AM
Speaking of Russian warships, I was just reading about the missile frigate Admiral Makarov, described by Forbes as "the juiciest target in the Black Sea" (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/06/the-russian-frigate-admiral-makarov-might-be-the-juiciest-target-in-the-black-sea/?sh=3f7857874d56)

Well, buckle up for rough seas, because it's reportedly on fire after getting hit by a missile! (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ship-admiral-makarov-ukraine-war-b2073007.html)

Man, "accidental" fires are all the rage these days.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 06, 2022, 09:33:22 AM
The Kremlin dismissed claims that it will issue a general mobilization on May 9th.  Yet suspiciously, numerous governmental organizations have posted lots of help wanted ads for "wartime mobilisation specialists". (https://mobile.twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1522480922762874881)

I'm not worried, because if you thought the initial invading troops were lacking, just wait till you see the D-listers - greener than the Hulk, and less motivated than Trump trying to read the Bible.  And in the same (or worse) vehicles that already got blown up so bad that the autoloaders are part of the space program.

And if you thought the public resented the Kremlin before, just wait until Moscow citizens get fed to the meat grinder.  Putin will be on track for a quick retirement as war casualties mount.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 06, 2022, 01:27:40 PM
Update: the cruiser is reportedly on fire but still afloat and attempting to abandon ship.

Russia denies it was attacked (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-peskov-admiral-makarov-black-sea-ship-1704189) because of course they deny it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on May 06, 2022, 03:08:48 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 06, 2022, 01:27:40 PMUpdate: the cruiser is reportedly on fire but still afloat and attempting to abandon ship.

Russia denies it was attacked (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-peskov-admiral-makarov-black-sea-ship-1704189) because of course they deny it.
Does Ukraine even have a navy? They are sure smacking the Russian navy.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on May 06, 2022, 07:27:28 PM
Quote from: Cassia on May 06, 2022, 03:08:48 PMDoes Ukraine even have a navy? They are sure smacking the Russian navy.

Not really; they had a fleet of 27 ships, being composed of a 93' frigate, the Hetman Sahaidachny, at least one recon vessel, and a few patrol boats from what I am finding; the Sahaidachny was scuttled in port rather than let the Russians capture it and at least 12 patrol boats being captured pretty early on.

Didn't help that in 2014, several of the top admirals and captains defected to Russia... so it seems like Ukraine is better off at this point without ships as the Navy are fighting as infantry instead; if they had known what a paper tiger Russia was, perhaps they could have prepared better... but that caught the entire world off guard.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on May 06, 2022, 09:16:55 PM
Quote from: Cassia on May 06, 2022, 03:08:48 PMDoes Ukraine even have a navy? They are sure smacking the Russian navy.

Thank the Neptunes.  Ukrainian designed.  (Perhaps with a little help from sources unknown.)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 06, 2022, 11:01:50 PM
May 9th is going to be a busy day.

Putin is going to kick off Victory Day festivities and perhaps a major escalation of the war with Ukraine (possible mobilisation)

Biden will sign Lend-Lease that day.

Zelenskyy has invited German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Kyiv that day.  Ukraine is rumored to launch a missile strike on the Crimes bridge on the same day.  (I hope Scholz brings his sunglasses)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on May 07, 2022, 04:11:09 AM
To paraphrase men who didn't have their balls surgically removed, unlike some of their "kin" to the West...

"German nation, go fuck yourself."

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/berlin-bans-ukrainian-flag-symbols-on-may-8-9/

QuoteUkrainian activists planned to hold a peaceful rally in Berlin and commemorate the victims of World War II, which killed millions of Ukrainians. But Berlin authorities forbade them to bring Ukrainian symbols, putting them on the same list as Russian imperialist symbols, including Z signs in support of Russian aggression and Saint George ribbons. Germany has been heavily criticized for its reluctance to help Ukraine since Russia started its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 07, 2022, 08:16:28 AM
Like many nations, several German officials have had financial ties to Russian oligarchs, which explains some of the odd decisions.

Germany was well on its way to extensively relying on Russia to power its economy, so reversing course and shutting down Nordstream 2 couldn't have been easy.

It would have been nice for them to have realized the error earlier and been more proactive about military production/aid, but I guess late is better than never.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 07, 2022, 08:30:03 AM
(https://i.redd.it/5hjog260jnx81.jpg)

They look like they're ready to fight anarchists then head to the local discotheque to listen to that new YMCA song.

I predict that they'll wisely stay on their own land.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 07, 2022, 10:34:04 AM
Ukraine just signed a defense agreement with Poland (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1522712798815391744)

Neither side will reveal specifics, but it deals with providing Ukraine with "special equipment".

Poland has several times been rather secretive about its arms shipments to Ukraine to keep that info from the enemy, and each time they've surpassed expectation.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 07, 2022, 02:31:37 PM
Catching some Zs:  The Ukrainian countryside sure is lovely this time of year. (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522632237858107393?t=jlPaCJMTi70S-FZHW4_WAA&s=09)  It'll look even nicer when all the invaders are driven out.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 07, 2022, 04:20:16 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR8UOR3XoAwMzlS?format=jpg&name=medium)

The Ukrainians have better intel, too.  They'll strike first and last.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 07, 2022, 04:30:23 PM
(https://i.redd.it/wpryyxxzo3y81.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 08, 2022, 09:15:36 AM
The 64th separated motorized brigade, one of the units involved in the Bucha crimes against humanity, has reportedly been completely wiped out (https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1523021564765110272?s=20&t=Y3nT0b-V5ZQC4RpIQFOAvA) in the fighting near Izium.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 08, 2022, 09:26:58 AM
So apparently, Ukrainian forces not only wiped out the invaders on Snake Island, they also destroyed a rescue helicopter full of special forces just as it landed.  And when I say destroyed, I mean blown skyhigh.  Overkill.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 08, 2022, 09:32:45 AM
Meanwhile, on the eastern front on May 7th, Ukrainian forces repulsed 9 attacks (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/8/7344774/), destroying 19 tanks, 20 armored vehicles, 4 special armored vehicles (??), 1 unit of special engineering equipment (???), 6 motor vehicles (aka copewagons), 1 helicopter (different from the Snake Island one), and 6 drones.

Quite a haul!  And that's just one front.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 08, 2022, 10:29:39 AM
Chechen forces are lauded in Russia as being some of the most elite, fiercest fighters.

So let's watch them in action:


That poor shrub is now 100% denazified.  ☠️

Good form, too.  It's like a combination of an arthritic centenarian walking around after knee surgery and an obese American on a mobility scooter trying to reach the last box of Little Debbie snacks at the local Walmart.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 08, 2022, 09:06:39 PM
On May 8th, Ukrainian forces destroyed 15 Russian tanks (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3478425-ukrainian-military-destroy-up-to-190-enemy-troops-and-15-tanks-in-eastern-ukraine.html), 12 infantry fighting vehicles, 12 armored personnel carriers, 1 armored fighting vehicle, 1 MT-LB vehicle, mortar squad, 6 heavy artillery tractors, 1 fuel tank, and 2 drones.

190 Russian invaders kia
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on May 08, 2022, 10:11:39 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 08, 2022, 10:29:39 AMChechen forces are lauded in Russia as being some of the most elite, fiercest fighters.

So let's watch them in action:


That poor shrub is now 100% denazified.  ☠️

Good form, too.  It's like a combination of an arthritic centenarian walking around after knee surgery and an obese American on a mobility scooter trying to reach the last box of Little Debbie snacks at the local Walmart.

Love how he stuck the muzzle of his gun into the ground several times following the panicked shooting.  Hope (or not) he checks the barrel before firing again.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on May 08, 2022, 10:21:49 PM
Oh, and I don't think wasting ammunition like that is highly recommended.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 09, 2022, 01:10:34 AM
Quote from: ferdmonger on May 08, 2022, 10:21:49 PMOh, and I don't think wasting ammunition like that is highly recommended.
It was given to a Kadyrovite, it was already wasted.  And my favorite part of the video was the very casual, stumbling walk back to the cameraman.  Badasses apparently don't go prone or take cover in active combat situations.

Those numbskulls shoot up obviously empty, abandoned buildings and put it on TikTok like they're Seal Team Six.

Sometimes, there's actual fighting and one of them dropped their gun during combat somehow (+200 pushups for the whole platoon) and then some dummy jog-walks to retrieve it and takes a sniper shot to the gut, and they react by trying to get him to just walk it off.  Smh.

Their latest has them sitting down in front of a low wall and one guy's leg is a bloody mess in a tourniquet and he's just chillin' like it ain't no thing.  They act as if reality runs on action movie logic and tourniquets magically stabilize "flesh wounds".

I barely know the difference between a magazine and a clip and I feel like I know more about war than these guys.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 09, 2022, 08:22:42 AM
In the southern front, Russian forces tried to attack a Ukrainian recon unit, but were destroyed (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/9/7344964/).  The Russians lost 51 troops, 1 tank, 2 mlrs, an anti-aircraft missile system, a helicopter, and 2 drones.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 09, 2022, 08:39:14 AM
Ukrainian forces issue a thank-you note to a Russian unit which (presumably by mistake) used flamethrower weapons on friendly forces. (https://mobile.twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1523492036145336320?s=21&t=1UX-nSpZHGh5YOAocMi9JQ)

The Ukrainians said that it was in keeping with the Russian tradition of cooking kebabs in May.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 09, 2022, 12:56:01 PM
Russian TV hacked (https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1523543444127248385?s=20&t=9egdnlaJ0Z6U9apF2YiCxg), displays message: "Your hands are covered in the blood of thousands of Ukrainian children"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 09, 2022, 01:10:18 PM
US has observed some Russian officers refusing to follow orders (https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1523687526677975040), necessitating Russian generals to come closer to the front, where they are more vulnerable, tempting targets...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on May 09, 2022, 02:19:47 PM
Heh, heh, heh. Pretty soon, it's gong to be "Court-Martialed, shot and sent to the Eastern Front!"  To paraphrase the SS Major's phrase from Hogan's Heroes. :D
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on May 09, 2022, 06:34:48 PM
Zelenskyy presenting Patron the bomb sniffing dog with medals for his service.

If the goal has been to break Ukraine's moral through atrocities, they have failed.

(https://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2022/05/09/fb7750f2-8f5c-4486-bf44-4b6bec33f270/thumbnail/1280x720/15d85d55b02749e8a549fb4914996c15/ukraine-dog-999779-640x360.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on May 09, 2022, 06:36:13 PM
Also, a speech that might go down in history as one of the (hopefully) most influential speeches of this century.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 10, 2022, 12:20:56 AM
Ukrainian forces have pushed deep near Kharkiv (https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1523697824344420353), making Russian supply lines more vulnerable to artillery fire and limiting Russian troop movements.

This front is in real jeopardy of collapsing and being pushed back to Russia's borders, much like the northern front was.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 10, 2022, 12:55:30 AM
Lend-Lease signed by Biden!  Fuhrer Putin nervous.

Dems eye 40 billion in aid to Ukraine, more than what Biden asked for.

US to send electronic warfare units to Ukraine. (https://www.defensenews.com/electronic-warfare/2022/05/09/us-sending-ukraine-electronic-jamming-gear-in-150m-package/)  Basically, Ukrainian forces will be able to jam/eavesdrop enemy signals while being better able to protect themselves from such attacks.

Russia has fared poorly in electronic warfare in this conflict (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/03/russia-ukraine-electronic-warfare/) (another strategic blunder) and is set to fare even worse now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on May 10, 2022, 01:03:09 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 10, 2022, 12:55:30 AMLend-Lease signed by Biden!  Fuhrer Putin nervous.

Dems eye 40 billion in aid to Ukraine, more than what Biden asked for.

US to send electronic warfare units to Ukraine. (https://www.defensenews.com/electronic-warfare/2022/05/09/us-sending-ukraine-electronic-jamming-gear-in-150m-package/)  Basically, Ukrainian forces will be able to jam/eavesdrop enemy signals while being better able to protect themselves from such attacks.

Russia has fared poorly in electronic warfare in this conflict (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/03/russia-ukraine-electronic-warfare/) (another strategic blunder) and is set to fare even worse now.

Almost seems like we actually are escalating now... the same day Putin decided not to go to general mobilization like everyone predicted.

Has Putin finally realized he bit off more than he can chew, or are we punching him while he is down? If the latter, that's concerning to know how far things can still go.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 10, 2022, 01:24:18 AM
There are no brakes on the NATO train. :P

And while Putin hasn't announced a mass mobilization (yet), there has been some evidence of groundwork being laid in that direction.  Additionally, Putin is redeploying troops from Syria, which is very worrisome and could prolong the conflict considerably.

As to how far this will go, with Russian troops escorted from Ukraine back to Russia, naturally.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 10, 2022, 09:35:20 AM
Lithuania unanimously adopts resolution condemning Russia's ongoing genocide, declares Russia a terrorist state (https://www.rferl.org/a/lithuania-resolution-russia-genocide/31842970.html)

Quotealso called for the creation of an international court to prosecute Russian officials responsible for the war in Ukraine, similar to the Nuremberg trials
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on May 10, 2022, 08:21:35 PM
Kind of off-topic at this point in the game, but I still wonder about the opening of the war, where Putin expected to waltz into Kiev, kill teams were to take care of the Ukrainian government, and the U.S. had been warning for a long while that Russia would in fact invade Ukraine.  What happened to those kill teams?

I have a suspicion that we provided detailed info on those teams and knew about them way ahead of time. I don't even doubt that special forces assisted in eliminating these 'teams'. How else did this go so awry?   
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 10, 2022, 09:22:04 PM
From what I've read, one kill team was dangerously close to actually being successful.  Afaik, all were eliminated by Ukrainian security after making varying levels of progress towards Zelensky.

Considering that there were news articles about the kill teams, it's safe to say they didn't exactly blend in and security knew of the threat well in advance.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on May 11, 2022, 01:03:37 AM
Yeah  I remember it being reporter that there were a shitload of assassins in kiev itself
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 09:22:58 AM
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian artillery battery (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/ukraines_armed_forces_destroy_another_russian_artillery_battery_trying_to_fight_like_in_syria_video-2876.html)

What's interesting about this is that the Russians are using identical tactics to their tactics in Syria, which the Ukrainians know how to counter very well.  The end result is a decisive Russian defeat.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 09:40:06 AM
Nearly 4 million Russian civilians have left Russia over the past 2 months. (https://mobile.twitter.com/cepa/status/1524076129656754176)  (Russia's population in Jan 2022 was estimated to be 145 million)

Russia is experiencing brain drain.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on May 11, 2022, 10:31:44 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 09:40:06 AMNearly 4 million Russian civilians have left Russia over the past 2 months. (https://mobile.twitter.com/cepa/status/1524076129656754176)  (Russia's population in Jan 2022 was estimated to be 145 million)

Russia is experiencing brain drain.
Well, the brains are not coming here!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 12:36:28 PM
I've just learned that the 4 million statistic is just the total of how many left Russia (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/06/nearly-4m-russians-left-russia-in-early-2022-fsb-a77603), and doesn't distinguish between Russians who have left temporarily and those who have left permanently.  Sort of an important difference. :/

Apologies for the misleading headline.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 02:05:05 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSfBiYxXwAASREj?format=jpg&name=large)

I've seen more successful river crossings in Oregon Trail
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on May 11, 2022, 03:08:09 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 02:05:05 PMI've seen more successful river crossings in Oregon Trail
Looks like they were easy pickins....maybe stuck in mud and too bunched up when they got struck.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 07:25:18 PM
Yep.

And you can see a couple of them without turrets and also a turret lying on the ground far away from either tank.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 10:53:35 PM
You saw the picture, here's the (https://news.yahoo.com/luhansk-region-bilohorivka-armed-forces-073502253.html) 1000 words (https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1524430556011933696)

Russia lost at least 32 armored vehicles in a failed river crossing.

Yikes!  I'm going to need to invent new words/phrases to describe how disasterous this campaign has been.

1) Törichtkrieg
2) La grande quête des imbéciles suicidaires
3) Saltar de un acantilado mientras finge volar
4) Provocantes tauri et mori sicut stultus

Basically,  I'm looking for a phrase that involves folly, self-destruction through hubris, completely avoidable and yet deliberate chosen, and is such a horrible fate that even the Devil says "Glad I'm not that guy".  I'm disappointed that there's no shorthand word for it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on May 11, 2022, 11:43:55 PM
If it weren't for all the people dying, that theme music from the old Benny Hill show would be apropos.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 12, 2022, 12:01:37 AM
Pardon me while I burst:  Mysterious Explosions Rock Russia as Fire Breaks Out in Belgorod (https://www.newsweek.com/mysterious-explosions-rock-russia-fire-breaks-out-belgorod-1705476) (yes, again)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on May 12, 2022, 12:37:29 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 10:53:35 PMYou saw the picture, here's the (https://news.yahoo.com/luhansk-region-bilohorivka-armed-forces-073502253.html) 1000 words (https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1524430556011933696)

Russia lost at least 32 armored vehicles in a failed river crossing.

Yikes!  I'm going to need to invent new words/phrases to describe how disasterous this campaign has been.

1) Törichtkrieg
2) La grande quête des imbéciles suicidaires
3) Saltar de un acantilado mientras finge volar
4) Provocantes tauri et mori sicut stultus

Basically,  I'm looking for a phrase that involves folly, self-destruction through hubris, completely avoidable and yet deliberate chosen, and is such a horrible fate that even the Devil says "Glad I'm not that guy".  I'm disappointed that there's no shorthand word for it.

Sadomasochistische oorlogsvoering?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on May 12, 2022, 08:21:22 AM
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on May 12, 2022, 12:37:29 AMSadomasochistische oorlogsvoering?
is potato?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 12, 2022, 10:09:17 AM
At what's being dubbed the Donets Disaster (https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1524567807479930880?s=20&t=w9DDN-lmzn_Be3xbDjXL7Q), Ukrainian forces had reconned the area, predicted the Russians would make a crossing there, and set up multiple artillery sustems targeting the area.

The Russians tried to create a pontoon bridge at the exact spot that was predicted.  The Ukrainians waited until as many forces as possible were on that bridge, then gave them hell.  The few vehicles that made it across were subsequently destroyed.  The only Russian survivors were either far from the bridge or ones that panicked under withering artillery fire and jumped out of their vehicles to swim to safety and even a lot of those didn't make it.

Russia lost almost an entire battalion in that one crushing bombardment.  Aspiring generals are going to have to study this battle at West Point. It's going to go down in history as the next Battle of Tsushima.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 12, 2022, 10:59:28 AM
So... don't tell the Russians but apparently their cell phones are tracked by Ukraine.  So Ukrainian forces can just pull up a map and see in near real time exactly where Russians troops are 24/7.

(https://i.redd.it/tucyj9nvx0z81.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 12, 2022, 02:31:52 PM
Some Z-brand copium (now with 200% more brilliant feints)

(https://i.redd.it/j0t57godpxy81.png)

If you lose half your army every time you cross a river, you might as well go march into an active volcano.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 12, 2022, 02:48:06 PM
High-octane copium:  (https://i.redd.it/7byaicrimxy81.png)

Russian state media sure is mad about their big victory, which is more than a little strange.

They previously claimed that they shot down more than Ukraine's entire drone inventory, so an additional 30 is a bit...non-credible.

Also, the Ukrainians haven't had troops on Snake Island since early in the war when it was famously captured and Russian troops were stationed there.  So where did the alleged Ukrainian soldiers come from?  Did they teleport to the island?

And don't get me started on the alleged ships.

Oh Russian state media, never change.  Because your obvious lies are so transparent that it's a reliable source of comedy for the entire world.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 12, 2022, 07:27:36 PM
Siemens pulls out (https://www.npr.org/2022/05/12/1098508384/siemens-leaves-russia-over-ukraine-war)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 13, 2022, 12:42:05 AM
Lights Out!  Guerilla movement takes root in Crimea (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3481824-guerrilla-movement-on-rise-in-occupied-crimea.html)

From the start of the war and especially when the battle for Kyiv failed and Ukrainian forces have vowed to blow up the bridge, Russians have started packing up and leaving the peninsula.  At the same time, local Ukrainians have become considerably less hospitable.  They know about the genocides.

I've seen footage of locals puncturing the tires of apparently unguarded military vehicles.  They've also put flyers on the windshields of Putin allies politely informing them that their affiliations are known and that they'd better leave soon for their own safety.

Afaik, there has not yet been violence, but that's just a matter of time.  And should the Donbas front collapse and Ukrainian forces start to close in on Crimea, I have little doubt that they will be greatly aided by partisans.  Especially if the Ukrainians finally make good on their bridge threat and Crimea is cut off from easy reinforcement.  (Sea reinforcement seems increasingly unfeasible due to a rapidly shrinking Black Sea fleet)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 13, 2022, 01:03:32 AM
Understanding War Campaign Assessment: May 12th (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12)

QuoteThe Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv is also forcing the Russian command to make hard choices, as it was likely intended to do.
The Russians are reportedly likely to abandon their big Izium axis push and go for much less ambitious goals.

QuoteThe Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv is starting to look very similar to the counteroffensive that ultimately drove Russian troops away from Kyiv and out of western Ukraine entirely, although it is too soon to tell if the Russians will make a similar decision here.
Good.  I hope it all falls down on their heads.

QuoteThe Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Ukrainian forces fortified 170 km between Kramatorsk and Slovyansk and, falsely, that the Ukrainians are using civilians as human shields, likely in an attempt to set information conditions to explain the abandonment of the Izyum axis or justify the slow and limited advances in the area.
Wow. Always with the lying.  No wonder they're not trusted.

QuoteRussian forces conducted several unsuccessful and disjointed offensive operations in northwestern Donetsk Oblast in the vicinity of Avdiivka.
Putting it mildly.

QuoteRussia is likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories directly into Russia, as opposed to creating proxy "People's Republics."
Both Kherson and Mariupol are likely to be annexed via fiat rather than unwillingly becoming part of  "independent" People's Republics or even joining via phony referendum (which Ukraine has stated that they will not accept and really, nobody is fooled by such obvious falsehood)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 14, 2022, 11:07:33 AM
Russian causalities by region

(https://i.redd.it/37i99crxpfz81.png)

In previous conflicts, Putin has gone to great pains to hide war dead through use of mercenaries and especially made sure that grieving families are far from Moscow.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 14, 2022, 03:13:38 PM
Dollar store copium:

(https://i.imgur.com/mZ6iMfG.jpg)

By that logic, T-34 is the best tank.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 14, 2022, 04:19:22 PM
(https://i.redd.it/rqpopxmidhz81.jpg)

If Finland has nothing to worry about now, then it definitely won't after joining NATO, right Vlad?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 14, 2022, 04:30:22 PM
Second strongest military in the world Ukraine fooled by mannequins (https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-of-decoy-mannequins-with-weapons-in-kharkiv-as-russia-retreats-2022-5?)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 14, 2022, 05:06:37 PM
Ukraine wins the battle of Kharkiv (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3482837-ukraine-wins-battle-of-kharkiv-as-russian-troops-pulling-forces-out-of-area.html)

Ukrainian forces have reportedly pushed to the Russian border, threatening Russian supply lines and causing Russian forces to retreat and regroup inside Russian territory.

QuoteRussian forces continued disjointed and unsuccessful offensive operations near the Donetsk region border, while Ukrainian forces destroyed a field command post there.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kharkiv_(2022)
Status: Ukrainian victory
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 14, 2022, 05:19:41 PM
Ukrainian forces capture abandoned Russian command vehicle near Kharkiv (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1525437916654313472)

This should pair nicely with "Bunny" (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-volunteer-fighters-use-tank-nicknamed-bunny-against-russian-forces-2022-5?inline-endstory-related-recommendations=), the abandoned T-80 which went on to destroy dozens of Russian vehicles and several tanks.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 14, 2022, 10:57:09 PM
We're always listening: US military learning from Russian cellphone blunder (https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/russia-ukraine-cell-phones-track-combat/)

Russian soldiers give away their position by turning on their cellphones, by stealing Ukrainian phones (find my phone artillery solution), even through stolen earbuds.  Russian soldiers' penchant for looting is certainly an exploitable vulnerability.

Quote"Fortunately, Russians are quite naive and ignorant about using mobile devices, so they often call home, turning on their phones and connecting to the Ukrainian stations."
So stupid.

QuoteWhile the Russians had developed encrypted communications handsets for their special operations forces, those handsets were not widely distributed among Russian troops before the latest invasion of Ukraine,
Face meets palm.

Quotethere are now many images online showing Russian troops using cell phones or even the type of unencrypted walkie talkies that you could purchase at toy stores.
Damn, and I thought the tractor videos were embarrassing.  Imagine getting your whole platoon blown to bits because you looted children's toys to use because they're better than your military gear.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 14, 2022, 11:01:36 PM
Wrecked Russian jets found with GPS devices clipped to the dash (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-fighter-jets-gps-dashboard-uk-b2076376.html)

That's low-grade pizza delivery tech on Russian fighter jets.  Just how bad is the corruption over there?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 15, 2022, 09:32:18 AM
US howitzers helped greatly in allowing stunning Ukraine victory at Russia's disasterous river crossing (https://mobile.twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1525645044002263040?s=21)

Every aid shipment changes the future for the better.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 15, 2022, 09:35:13 AM
Over 550 invader artillery silenced so far (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/14/7346109/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 15, 2022, 09:37:50 AM
Finland officially joining NATO (https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/15/europe/finland-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 15, 2022, 11:16:25 AM
Germany to send over 155mm self-propelled howlitzers soon (https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/a-precedent-has-been-set-germany-to-hand-over-first-heavy-weapons-to-ukraine-soon-fm-kuleba)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 15, 2022, 12:34:14 PM
Russian troops deliberately wounding themselves to get out of war (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-are-now-deliberately-wounding-themselves-to-get-out-of-putins-war)

On that phone call, one soldier was telling his mother that the battery commander shot himself in the leg. The mother bemoaned the lack of "patriotism" from what I imagine is a comfy couch in a big house in St. Petersburg.

Really, I think they're both celebrating May Day in their own ways - one group is cheering May Day and the other group is crying "mayday!"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 15, 2022, 12:51:56 PM
Russia has lost a third of its forces (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1525773859613511681) and the Donbas offensive has stalled out and unlikely to resume

This dovetails with reports that Russian forces have largely shifted from an offensive to a defensive stance, except for the ones retreating, of course.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 15, 2022, 09:59:39 PM
(https://preview.redd.it/zhvh0qewgpz81.png?width=824&format=png&auto=webp&s=98190c854c54983497eb379d96c0f6190c7b5714)

This time it'll definitely work unless someone leaks it to the Ukrainians or something.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 16, 2022, 10:13:01 AM
(https://i.redd.it/sov4w3rk7tz81.jpg)

Pictured, dozens of Finnish snipers:

(https://previews.123rf.com/images/juhku/juhku1506/juhku150600164/41803553-winter-wald-und-schnee-in-finnland-am-abend-zeit.jpg)

Paraphrased: "Do not come here.  Your army is large and our country is small. We would run out of space to bury them all."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on May 16, 2022, 12:00:34 PM
^ Where's Waldo!? :D
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 16, 2022, 01:53:34 PM
In the past 24 hours, Allies delivered 10 airlifts of aid to Ukraine from 7 different nations (https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1526211438011895808)

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 16, 2022, 02:06:32 PM
Institute of War, May 15th (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15)

QuoteRussian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry.
Mix 'n match.  Now that's desperate.

QuoteThe Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight.
Recycled strat.  Sure to work just as well today as it did yesterday.

QuoteRussian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower.  Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves.
What's left of the VDV with whatever gun-shy civilian-murdering scum left of Wagner.  I bet they're best pals.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 16, 2022, 08:46:25 PM
Buckle up, buckaroo:  Russia to produce cars without antilock brakes, airbags, and other basic safety features (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1526184134439231488) after foreign auto companies leave Russia behind
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on May 16, 2022, 08:52:28 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 16, 2022, 08:46:25 PMBuckle up, buckaroo:  Russia to produce cars without antilock brakes, airbags, and other basic safety features (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1526184134439231488) after foreign auto companies leave Russia behind

Yet another way to reduce and or maim their population. Slow clap...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 16, 2022, 09:09:10 PM
"I'm okay to go" (repeated) Russian attack helicopters have a serious vibration problem (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-ka-52-attack-helicopters-have-got-a-serious-vibration-problem)

QuoteVideo clips showing Ka-52s operating with their stub wings rapidly bouncing up and down began to appear on social media in recent weeks and there has already been speculation that the issue could lead to "mechanical failures and vibration-induced fatigue."
It can also make the weapons more likely to miss and could also hamper sensors.

QuoteFinally, we discussed the videos with a helicopter pilot currently serving, who has direct experience of trials involving the service clearance of weapons and stub wings.

"This looks like they haven't even heard of damping," he remarked.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 16, 2022, 10:40:00 PM
"I utterly ruined my country, who wants to follow suit?"

Russia seeks to "ramp up" Putin-allied countries' militaries (https://www.newsweek.com/putin-tries-ramping-allies-military-capabilities-counter-nato-1706946)

QuoteOn Monday, Putin spoke alongside leaders from Russia's allies in Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at a Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Moscow.

He called on the countries to streamline their operations and ensure that various law enforcement agencies and security services are working in coordination, adding that his administration will equip forces with the latest weaponry.
*howling laughter*

Firstly, Russia has precious little to spare, and what little it has is being wrecked and spread out in Ukrainian fields, submerged in Ukrainian rivers, or undergoing special undersea operations in the Black Sea.

Secondly, NATO contains most of the world's richest and most powerful countries.  It is mathematically impossible to match it on remotely even terms.  What a joke.

Third, how many allies does Russia truly have?  (Tellingly, why aren't any of them in Ukraine?)  Hitler, Putin's inspiration, built more tight-knit and more enduring alliances than Putin could ever hope to make.

Russia doesn't have allies, it has countries that have had the misfortune of temporarily falling under Russia's sphere of influence. When Russia's influence wanes, their private feelings will be made public.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 17, 2022, 09:04:55 AM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 17, 2022, 01:57:48 PM
Russian people surprised to learn that the war isn't going well (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-kodaryonok-60-minutes-1707270)

Quotea former air defense commander turned military commentator, who in 2020 was awarded a "Merit to the Fatherland" medal
I wonder what kind of salute he made when he got that medal...

Quote"An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests," he wrote

Meanwhile, earlier this month, he told Russia-1 that general mobilization of the Russian population would not accomplish much because Russia had outdated weapons that could not compete with NATO-supplied arms.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 17, 2022, 02:12:02 PM
Putler: "Don't worry, this war will improve your lives" (https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-tells-russians-not-to-worry-this-will-make-your-lives-better)

Tell that to the families of the Moskva sailors.  They didn't even get the meager death benefits Putin promised them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 18, 2022, 08:47:35 PM
Guerilla fighters in Melitopol reportedly destroyed an armored train (https://news.yahoo.com/guerrillas-blow-russian-armoured-train-131739180.html) and killed several high-ranking Russian officers (https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1526723550190751745?t=npteiA7OucNtJmr_FVcdJQ&s=19)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 18, 2022, 08:58:39 PM
A fool for a client:  Putin micromanaging military forces, despite complete lack of training/experience (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fopinion%2F2022%2F05%2F18%2Fvladimir-putin-micromanaging-way-military-collapse%2F)

Additionally, this means that he personally engineered some of Russia's most devastating defeats, like the disasterous river crossing, and can't convincingly deflect blame to a subordinate when angry Russians demand to hold someone accountable for this disaster.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on May 18, 2022, 09:20:12 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 18, 2022, 08:58:39 PMA fool for a client:  Putin micromanaging military forces, despite complete lack of training/experience (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fopinion%2F2022%2F05%2F18%2Fvladimir-putin-micromanaging-way-military-collapse%2F)

Additionally, this means that he personally engineered some of Russia's most devastating defeats, like the disasterous river crossing, and can't convincingly deflect blame to a subordinate when angry Russians demand to hold someone accountable for this disaster.
Deja vu, 1945. Putler just needs that little mustache.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 19, 2022, 06:57:45 AM
On May 18th, Ukraine's Airforce destroys 20 armored vehicles, 1 plane, 1 cruise missile (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_air_force_downs_russian_su_34_cruise_missile_eliminates_20_combat_armored_vehicles-2981.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 19, 2022, 07:07:30 AM
Ukrainians make two successful river crossings and attack Russian supply lines NE of Kharkiv (https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1526814175074336768?s=20&t=vEf8KJNTulaJgJBSAnQcRA)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 19, 2022, 12:04:27 PM
Catching some Zs:  Ukrainian forces show tank graveyard consisting of 80 Russian armored vehicles (https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-soldiers-show-z-tank-graveyard-after-80-vehicles-blown-up-in-one-battle/)

(Aftermath of failed river crossing)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 19, 2022, 12:13:54 PM
Russia says an opening of Ukrainian ports requires "a review of sanctions first"
 (https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/moscow-says-opening-ukraine-ports-would-need-review-of-sanctions-on-russia-interfax)
1) How about NO

2) Thanks for incentivizing the liberation of Ukrainian ports.  Now, even neutral countries have a vested interest on Russia losing control of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 19, 2022, 12:31:56 PM
Belogrod complaints about being attacked, fine with doing the atacking (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/19/belgorod-the-russian-city-on-the-ukraine-frontline)

Quote"We talk a lot about what is happening, of course. The atmosphere in the city is sort of tense," said Anna, a local teacher.

"Life goes on, but sometimes it is impossible to ignore it, like the time the city was in thick smoke," she said, referring to the fuel depot attack.
You reap what you sow, and the Ukrainians are quite good at reaping. 

Thank your lucky stars they show restraint and don't repay your dark deeds one-to-one.

QuoteAnd while the consensus among military experts remains that Ukraine will not aim for a push into Russian territory, its advances have been met with unease in Belgorod and across Russia.
Note: Belgorod was the main site for military buildup for many months before the invasion of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 19, 2022, 03:15:34 PM
Value of companies leaving Russia estimated at roughly half of Russia's GDP (https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/news/companies-leaving-russia-gdp-exports-fdi)

QuoteAcademics at the Yale School of Management have found that revenue drawn from the (near) 1,000 companies curtailing or ending operations in Russia is equivalent to approximately 45% of Russia's gross domestic product (GDP).

For perspective, Russia's GDP is roughly the same as Texas's GDP.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 19, 2022, 04:02:07 PM
Russian checkpoint near Kherson (https://mobile.twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1526577685094445059)

They might be running low on usable equipment, lol.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Jason Harvestdancer on May 19, 2022, 10:56:54 PM
What a sad situation.  Let us just hope the US government doesn't make it worse.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 20, 2022, 08:53:33 AM
British intelligence says that Russia's military is hampered by cover-ups and scapegoating (https://www.thedailybeast.com/uk-intelligence-says-russian-army-hampered-by-cover-ups-and-scapegoating-under-putin?via=newsletter&source=BI-CS-All)

Putin's ongoing sacking of generals means that generals are "increasingly distracted by efforts to avoid personal culpability for Russia's operational set-backs."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 20, 2022, 09:01:19 AM
Due to heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia preparing to enlist older people (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussian-parliament-consider-allowing-over-40s-sign-up-military-2022-05-20%2F)

Quoteparliament said on Friday it would consider a bill to allow Russians over 40 and foreigners over 30 to sign up for the military.

Reportedly, they've also begun "volunteering" people with disabilities in occupied Donbas. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3487657-russia-drafting-persons-with-disabilities-into-invasion-force-sbu.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 20, 2022, 02:03:06 PM
Russia fires $6.5 million missile and hits... a beachfront toilet. (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/20/7347451/)

At least that's one less toilet they can steal.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on May 20, 2022, 02:29:04 PM
Ehhh, that stinker had it coming. :D
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 20, 2022, 05:54:26 PM
Crappy aim :P
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on May 20, 2022, 06:47:38 PM
Well, shit.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on May 20, 2022, 09:32:55 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 20, 2022, 10:26:03 PM
Russian troops are starting to use sandbags (novel technology), and these geniuses decided to use ammonium nitrate instead of sand (https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1527454308115042305)

At first, I thought that this is too dumb to be true, but then I remembered that these are the same brainiacs who camped out in a forest that's so radioactive that it literally changed the colors of the trees.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 21, 2022, 12:07:33 AM
Russian state TV: War in Ukraine rehearsal for war with NATO (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-russia-1-60-minutes-fenenko-1708500?amp=1)

Quote"We'll test and compare NATO weapons with our own. We'll find out on the battlefield how much stronger our weapons are than theirs," he said.
LOL dare ya.

Actually, they have had a taste of it in Syria when Wagner forces were mauled by US forces. Suffice it to say that it was not peer level.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 21, 2022, 10:49:26 AM
Earlier, Putin said Russia was deploying laser weapons to combat drones (no doubt to embolden troops who have been savaged by them)

Well, turns out that was all talk.  The Pentagon sees no evidence of laser weapons at all.  (https://defence-blog.com/pentagon-denies-reports-of-russia-fielding-laser-weapons-in-ukraine/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 21, 2022, 10:58:26 AM
In the South, Ukrainian forces destroyed  36 invaders, three T-72 tanks, and a Grad multiple rocket launcher (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3488433-ukraines-armed-forces-eliminate-36-invaders-3-tanks-grad-launcher-in-south.html)

In the luhansk region, Ukrainian forces hold back a surge of Russian invaders (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3488682-ukraine-forces-fending-off-russian-offensive-in-luhansk-region-as-enemy-targets-sievierodonetsk.html) as they wait for western artillery to be brought in so they can conduct a proper counter-offensive.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 21, 2022, 11:14:06 AM
Ukrainian forces "stole" a BMP (armored troop transport) apparently left by the river (https://au.topnews.media/ukraine/butusov-yuriy-ukrainian-defenders-stole-bmp-from-the-commander-of-the-motorized-infantry-brigade-of-the-occupiers-furduy-butusov-photo-20-05-22-2100-war-in-ukraine/)

Top Russian sniper killed in Ukraine (https://africa.businessinsider.com/news/a-top-russian-army-sniper-has-been-killed-in-ukraine-say-reports-in-the-latest-blow/ve5en07)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 21, 2022, 02:46:19 PM
VDV Captain killed in Ukraine (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1503310504466526208)

This guy was not only high-ranking, but family of a high-ranking Russian official (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yunus-bek_Yevkurov).
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 21, 2022, 11:26:22 PM
Russian propagandist shot videos with Russian heavy mortar vehicle.  Less than 24 hours later, Ukrainians forces blow it to bits (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1528046140847198210)

Lessons learned:
1) operational secrecy is important - location can be figured out from footage (you'd think they would've figured this out after the assault landing ship Saratov sank after being in shown off in propaganda footage and was similarly targeted and destroyed)

2) artillery that remains stationary is a sitting duck for counter-battery fire (shoot-and-scoot is artillery 101)

3) Very poor cover/concealment.  Practically begging to be destroyed.

Conclusion:  Russia repeatedly botches warfare basics and reaps the reward.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 22, 2022, 04:48:11 AM
A bridge too far: Ukrainian forces destroy another pontoon bridge, deny another Russian river crossing (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3488989-ukraines-forces-destroy-russian-enemy-equipment-pontoon-bridge-over-siverskyi-donets.html)

Apparently there have been several of these lately but I assumed they were reposts of the same news item.  Instead, the Russians suffered a catastrophic loss and decided to do it again and again.  Smh.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 22, 2022, 10:08:47 AM
Ukrainian Air Force destroys two flamethrower vehicles, 10 other military vehicles (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3489110-ukrainian-air-force-destroys-two-russian-solntsepek-heavy-flamethrower-systems.html)

They also destroyed several artillery vehicles near Zaporizhzhia with the help of guerillas (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-praises-guerrilla-fighters-aid-destroying-russian-artillery-1708902)

Russia is now likely facing a shortage of drones (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-likely-facing-uncrewed-aerial-vehicles-shortage-uk-says-2022-05-21/)

Russia reportedly no longer provides soldiers basic equipment, forcing them to pay thousands of USD or go without (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/20/we-have-to-buy-everything-ourselves-how-russian-soldiers-go-off-to-fight-a77751) (no wonder they have a morale problem!)

Biden signs $40 billion military assistance into law (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3488770-biden-signs-law-on-40b-assistance-for-ukraine.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 23, 2022, 09:44:58 AM
Near Lviv, Ukrainian forces shoot down an Su-25 plane and destroyed 14 paratroopers (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3489412-lviv-paratroopers-shoot-down-russian-su25-plane.html)

Strange place to attack, so far from the front lines and so close to Poland.

Russian state media says they destroyed a western arms shipment, but Russian state media says a lot of things and isn't credible.  Still, it makes sense that they'd be trying to do that there, they just likely weren't successful, otherwise western media would be abuzz about it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 23, 2022, 09:59:09 AM
Zelensky says that Ukraine loses about 50-100 soldiers a day (https://www.newsweek.com/nearly-100-ukraine-servicemen-could-die-every-day-east-region-zelensky-1708968), which is troubling.

But they currently have 700,000 total troops.

And they take comparatively light losses compared to the Russians, who lose at least 200 on any given day, based on reports I've seen.  Sometimes, it's much higher than that.  On rare occasions, they lose the equivalent of a whole battalion, which is around 600-700.

Russian forces are predicted to become too depleted to continue within 90 days (https://www.newsweek.com/military-expert-gives-putins-forces-90-days-ukraine-1706246), far sooner than Ukranian forces.  Still, that's 4500 - 9000 Ukrainian kia by then.  Not good.

But the predictions, which have been on track so far, give Ukraine a total victory as Russian lines collapse from attrition.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 23, 2022, 02:16:23 PM
Desperate: Russia tries to prepare T-62 tanks (from the 1960s) to replenish ranks. (https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/russia_to_prepare_soviet_era_t_62m_tanks_to_replenish_reserves-3033.html)

Quoteit is extremely difficult to call these machines effective, as it's really difficult to conduct combat operations having the 15-mm gun, without both automatic loading and ancient fire control system and night vision.

This is the equivalent of hauling your Ford Pinto out of storage because the road proved too dangererous for your CR-V and Honda Accord.  Third time's a charm!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 23, 2022, 02:23:52 PM
Ukraine air defense shoots down 4 naval-fired cruise missiles near-simultaneously (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_air_forces_of_the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_set_new_record_over_zhytomyr_region_on_downed_russias_caliber_missiles-3032.html).  The missiles were targeting Ukrainian infrastructure (and possibly an outhouse)

They've shot down 110 cruise missiles so far.

The Kremlin's bombardment strategy, which must've seemed great on paper, doesn't appear to be nearly as effective in reality.  Very expensive and burning through a very limited stockpile of precision missiles.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on May 23, 2022, 03:38:19 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 23, 2022, 02:23:52 PMUkraine air defense shoots down 4 naval-fired cruise missiles near-simultaneously (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_air_forces_of_the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_set_new_record_over_zhytomyr_region_on_downed_russias_caliber_missiles-3032.html).  The missiles were targeting Ukrainian infrastructure (and possibly an outhouse)

They've shot down 110 cruise missiles so far.

The Kremlin's bombardment strategy, which must've seemed great on paper, doesn't appear to be nearly as effective in reality.  Very expensive and burning through a very limited stockpile of precision missiles.
Got me to wondering if the US military forces would be almost as vulnerable to anti-ship, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and drones? Could say, 150 anti-ship missiles launched at the same time by a certain large Asian country take out a bazillion-dollar US nuclear powered aircraft carrier? We saw glimpses of this in Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 23, 2022, 04:25:55 PM
US naval vessels currently prioritize anti-missile defenses and are working on anti-drone defenses, afaik.

All modern ground forces are highly vulnerable to drone technology, especially those whose military doctrine relies heavily on massed tank columns (Russia and China)

All nations would be wise to rethink any military adventurism and seriously contemplate another strategy for the time being.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 24, 2022, 01:48:07 AM
The T-62 situation is even worse for Russia than I thought (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1528907746971684864.html)

QuoteRU has potentially nearly exhausted its immediately operable reserves of T-64s, T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s.
Because why use an antiqued tank if you can use a more modern one?  The only possible reason is that there are few modern tanks available for use, which is strange because Russia supposedly has thousands of modern(ish) tanks in storage.  They must be in an advanced state of disrepair to necessitate the desperate act of turning to the T-62s.

Personal theory: thanks to corruption, much of the stockpiled tanks may have been poorly serviced and may even have had components illegally sold for graft money, rendering many if not most of them inoperable.  Naturally, the more modern components are more in demand and fetch higher prices, so the T-62s were affected less by this practice than the newer tanks.

After all, who's going to notice or care about some old tanks in storage?  They've been rusting for years and years, so who cares if one is missing a part here or a part there?  What are the odds that some mad dictactor will start a crazy war and burn through the main tank force like a hot knife through butter?

QuoteSummary: Russia likely has at most ~3,100 deployable tanks before it has totally exhausted its active and operable stockpiled tanks. Given they have suffered ~1,300 loses in the first 3 months, I'm skeptical they can continue combat operations through the end of the year.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 24, 2022, 09:29:43 AM
Another mysterious fire in Russia (https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1528771836233670657?s=21&t=gOe36jnpxUHCNE6nq8UyeQ), this time at a strategic rocket site, burning down a regiment command post
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 24, 2022, 09:31:38 AM
US: 20 nations to send new weapons to Ukraine (https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000008364069/russia-ukraine-war-weapons-austin.html?smid=pl-share)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 24, 2022, 02:10:59 PM
In the east in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled 16 enemy attacks (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3490531-ukrainian-joint-forces-repel-16-enemy-attacks-destroy-eight-tanks.html), destroyed 8 tanks, 22 armored vehicles, and 1 err...other vehicle.  Also, 7 drones.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 24, 2022, 02:16:44 PM
Z marks the spot: Ukrainian forces blow up a Russian command post (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3490187-ukraine-army-hits-russian-command-post-with-natostandard-howitzer.html) using a NATO-standard howitzer.  Distance of over 20km.  Suffice it to say they're quick learners.

Quote"The artillery men of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Zakarpattia Brigade have hit a senior staff base of one of Russian military units. The Z-marked military off-road vehicle and several rashists standing nearby were destroyed. The shot was fired from a howitzer delivered to Ukraine as part of NATO's assistance,"

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 24, 2022, 05:59:49 PM
It's all a feint:  "Russia slowing down offensive on purpose to avoid civilian casualties" (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/24/7348210/) - Sergei 'serious as a heart attack' Shoigu

If you beleive that, I have a high-rise in Mauripol to sell ya.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 25, 2022, 12:18:19 AM
Hoisted by their own petard: Russian mortar team destroyed by Ukrainian forces using captured mortars (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3491384-russians-get-destroyed-with-their-own-mortar-systems.html).  Result: more captured mortars!

They also destroyed a tank because why not.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 25, 2022, 08:33:08 AM
Due to sanctions, Russian fleet reduced to using chinese household appliances in their ships (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3490837-russia-installs-on-warships-components-from-chinamade-household-appliances-intelligence-report.html)

And no, they're not being used in the mess hall.  They're used to maintain buoyancy.  Imagine taking the circuit from a rice cooker and slotting it into critical naval systems.  What could go wrong?

Probably related to the fact that Ukraine has been receiving new Harpoon anti-ship missiles as well as the overall poor state of the Black Sea fleet, some Russian sailors are refusing to undertake combat missions.  Good on them.  Stay close to port, because you never know when "rough seas" will hit your ship, so you definitely want to stay as close to land as possible.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 25, 2022, 11:17:22 AM
Moscow removes upper age limit on military service (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-lawmakers-vote-scrap-upper-age-limit-military-2022-05-25/)

Apparently, they need manpower bad but for some reason can't mass-mobilize.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 26, 2022, 02:13:38 PM
Invaders using scorched earth tactics (https://v.redd.it/0q079dzlhu191)

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 26, 2022, 02:22:54 PM
Orwellian: Invaders use propaganda vehicles to lie to the public in temporarily occupied Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/russia-uses-orwellian-propaganda-news-vans-in-mariupol)

(https://i.imgur.com/0eAmHjQ.jpeg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 26, 2022, 02:39:59 PM
In more positive news, Finland's Prime Minister visited Zelensky in Kyiv.

(https://i.redd.it/3aafeld30u191.jpg)

Ukraine receives 14 Su-25 aircraft (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1529780002065195008), albeit in disassembled form.

Also, Lithuanians are crowdfunding Bayaraktars for Ukraine.  Those things are probably the best bang-per-buck in Ukraine's arsenal and absolutely terrify invaders, so getting more of them in the air is a big deal.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 26, 2022, 02:55:26 PM

This invader just wants to go home and go back to his construction job and his family.  By all means, don't delay!

And get some serious therapy because those laughing fits in between talking about utter carnage, that's not healthy.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 26, 2022, 05:36:10 PM
Snorting one's own propaganda or sheer arrogance?  Moscow expects Ukraine to legitimize conquered territory (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/26/7348648/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 27, 2022, 09:26:51 AM
Another Russian official demands an end to this disasterous war (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-official-demands-putin-end-ukraine-war-invasion-escorted-out-meeting-1710770), gets escorted out of a high-level meeting, branded a traitor, and denied the right to vote (for an election that's already predetermined)

QuoteSpeaking on behalf of four party members in a rare critique of what Putin describes a "special military operation," Vasyukevich said he and his colleagues had signed an appeal to the president.
A key difference between dictatorships and democracies:   dictatorships can't change from within.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 28, 2022, 10:43:03 AM
Russia's (and China's) most advanced fighter shot down in Ukraine and enough of the plane is intact for it to be researched by UK/US governments (https://eurasiantimes.com/big-blow-to-chinese-russian-air-force-fighter-jet-uk-us/?amp)

QuoteNow, as scientists in the United States and the United Kingdom investigate the remnants of a fighter jet, experts believe it might make a "huge difference" in how the West conducts air-to-air warfare with both Russia and China, inflicting a severe blow to Russia's military and industrial complex.
Scientia potentia est.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 28, 2022, 10:59:23 AM
Russian invader deaths hit the 30k mark (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3494180-ukraines-armed-forces-kill-about-30000-russian-soldiers.html)

Edit - maybe as high as 33k (https://mobile.twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1530464255442575360)

On the southern front over the past day, Russia lost 63 troops, 6 helicopters, 3 tanks. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3494105-russian-losses-in-ukraines-south-in-past-day-over-60-soldiers-six-helicopters-three-tanks.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 29, 2022, 08:41:07 AM
Zel's Counterattack:  Ukrainian forces launch major counteroffensive with the goal of liberating Kherson (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-southern-counterattack-against-russian-forces-underway).

Currently, they have pushed fairly deep into enemy territory NE of Kherson and are attempting to cut enemy supply lines there.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 29, 2022, 10:01:36 AM
115 members of Putin's privaye army fired for refusing to fight
 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/27/115-russian-national-guard-soldiers-sacked-for-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine)
QuoteThe Pentagon said this month that it had seen "anecdotal reports" that "mid-grade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level", had "either refused to obey orders" or were not obeying them with the expected measure of "alacrity".
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 29, 2022, 10:53:18 AM
Too predictable:  In the southern front, Ukrainian forces plant mine on Russian route and remotely detonate it with perfect timing.  Ka-Boom! (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/ukraines_explosive_ambush_in_occupied_kherson_region_videos-3108.html)

Destroys one of these loaded with personnel:

(https://www.army-technology.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/09/1l-image-62.jpg)

"mine-resistant"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 29, 2022, 11:20:30 PM
The wretched state of russian invader equipment:

(https://i.redd.it/pj35psjn6g291.jpg)

Archaic rifles, what I hope is a radio, basically nil body armor (where tf are their helmets?!), and that's about it.  I'm not even sure if they get rations or just eat whatever they can forage/steal.

These guys might as well surrender just to have a hot meal and a decent place to sleep.

Cause otherwise, they're goners.  That Z might as well stand for 'zero chance'.  A technical alone could probably do the trick, let alone a mortar-dropping drone.  Heaven forbid an armored convoy comes through there.

And you better believe drones are drawn to that tricolor like vultures to roadkill.  They can literally see that flag from a mile away.

Just go away and save everyone unnecessary hardship.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on May 29, 2022, 11:45:11 PM
I served in the US Navy, '72-'76, and in defense for another 27 years in the interval from '76 until 2014, when I retired (intervening years include insurance claims adjuster and high school teacher). We had an expectation about what the USSR (yes, I'm that old) could do. I remember when the USSR was crumbling and the US was asked to sequester fissile Uranium that could have potentially fallen into the wrong hands. What I'm seeing now is way worse. If the USSR/CIS/whatever it is called now, drops any lower in power, The Chinese are right there to pick up the reins. I consider the US manufacturing companies who transferred their capability to China to be greed monsters. The US suffers and is going to suffer for this mistake.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 12:15:25 AM
Reading the current Institute of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28) and it's like reading the academic assessment of Ralph Wiggim.

QuoteUkraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong.
Putler is losing thousands of troops and ludicrous amounts of military hardware for some podunk town in the middle of nowhere just to eke out a purely political "win" whose cost was so horrendous that calling it pyrrhic would be an understatement.  Double pyrrhic?  Literally stabbing the sea would be more productive.

QuoteThe Russians continue to make extremely limited progress in their efforts to gain control of the unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast, meanwhile. Russian troops have struggled to penetrate the pre-February 24 line of contact for weeks, while Russian offensive operations from Izyum to the south remain largely stalled.
Invaders have been pushed out of Kharkiv and have yet to make any real progress since then.  I do not expect this to change.

QuoteRussian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective.
No wonder the Ukrainians picked now for their southern counter-offensive.  The Russians put everything they had into a haymaker that didn't quite connect and got jabbed in the side for their trouble.

QuoteMoscow will not be able to recoup large amounts of effective combat power even if it seizes Severdonetsk, because it is expending that combat power frivolously on taking the city.
Win or lose, they're spent.  Idiotic.

QuoteThe Ukrainians continue to receive supplies and materiel from their allies as well, however slow and limited that flow may be. The Russians, in contrast, continue to manifest clear signs that they are burning through their available reserves of manpower and materiel with no reason to expect relief in the coming months.
Music to my ears.

QuoteEvidence of eroding military professionalism in the Russian officer corps is mounting. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.[1] Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines.
Morale problem turned into a casualty problem.  How efficient.

QuoteZhychkovskiy noted that Russian commanders are responsible for high losses and cases of insanity among servicemen.
Full.  Metal.  Jacket.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 12:49:42 AM
Quote from: Dark Lightning on May 29, 2022, 11:45:11 PMI served in the US Navy, '72-'76, and in defense for another 27 years in the interval from '76 until 2014, when I retired (intervening years include insurance claims adjuster and high school teacher). We had an expectation about what the USSR (yes, I'm that old) could do.
Did it involve dusting off T-62s for use in 2022 because a 3-month war had chewed through about a third of their armor?

The USSR might've been a tough customer, but the Russian Federation is without a doubt a shadow of that.  Corruption has eaten through a lot of what was left.

And you're right, China is much better positioned as a true rival for the West.  China plays a much more cautious game and wisely stays out of foreign entanglements (for the most part).  But one misstep could have them right where Russia is now.  Even the idea of that is helpful in curbing their advances.  In time, they'll hopefully be the last of a dying breed of despotic states.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 01:57:58 AM
Ukrainian forces launch successful counterattack NE of Kherson (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3495356-ukrainian-troops-launch-successful-counterattack-south-of-kryvyi-rih.html)

Russian losses:  63 troops, 19 units of equipment (some combination of T-72 tanks, Grad multiple rocket launcher, artillery, helicopters, and one Su-35 aircraft)

The Russians previously lost 6 helicopters in that area in short order, so those skies are looking awfully clear.  Not good for anyone on the ground.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 03:25:24 AM
Update to the above  (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3495349-ukraines-armed-forces-eliminate-67-aggressors-six-tanks-command-post-in-south.html)^

Exact losses:
67 troops
6 T-62 tanks (yep, already lol)
2 Grad multiple rocket launchers
3 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers
3 armored personnel vehicles
13 *ahem* other vehicles
an Orlan-10 drone
And last but not least... a command post.

(*sung to tune of 12 Days of Christmas*)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on May 30, 2022, 10:05:53 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 12:49:42 AMDid it involve dusting off T-62s for use in 2022 because a 3-month war had chewed through about a third of their armor?

The USSR might've been a tough customer, but the Russian Federation is without a doubt a shadow of that.  Corruption has eaten through a lot of what was left.

And you're right, China is much better positioned as a true rival for the West.  China plays a much more cautious game and wisely stays out of foreign entanglements (for the most part).  But one misstep could have them right where Russia is now.  Even the idea of that is helpful in curbing their advances.  In time, they'll hopefully be the last of a dying breed of despotic states.
Reminds me of Fallout 3 where the game takes place well after a US-China conflict in which nukes were liberally used on both sides.  Fun in a game, but not in real life.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 03:23:05 PM
Russia says attacks on Russian-invaded territory in Ukraine are "outrageous" (https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-attacks-russian-controlled-territory-ukraine-are-outrageous-2022-05-30/)

Hyprocrisy, thy name is Russia!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 03:41:01 PM
Slow learners:  Chornobaivka struck by Ukrainian forces again (https://mobile.twitter.com/f_o_r_Ukraine/status/1531210430231855104) (I've lost count of how many times this has haappened) this time it blew up an ammo depot
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 11:07:25 PM
Ukrainian soldier downs third Russian aircraft in two months (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3496016-national-guard-conscript-downs-three-enemy-attack-aircrafts-in-zaporizhzhia-region.html)

You read that right, some guy on the ground with a MANPAD is downing Russian planes like he's at a turkey shoot.

Latest kill was a Su-25 aircraft with an Igla (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K38_Igla).  Imagine what he could do with a Stinger or Starstreak.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 11:27:15 PM
NATO declares that it is no longer bound to 1997 treaty with Russia (https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1705708/nato-is-no-longer-bound-by-commitments-to-russia-and-will-beef-up-eastern-europe-presence-says-deputy-secretary-general) to refrain from military buildup in eastern europe if Russia does the same.

Suffice it to say that Russia has somewhat violated that treaty.  Just a tad.

As such, NATO is no longer bound to this bad-faith treaty and is now free to establish bases wherever its members wish.  And Poland wants new NATO bases in its east (https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-05-20/poland-new-bases-us-army-troops-russia-6066581.html) (currently, they're mostly in Poland's west (https://d2v9ipibika81v.cloudfront.net/uploads/sites/23/presence_eng_small.jpg))

The same day, Russia declared that it'll build new bases in its west (https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/20/russia-to-build-12-new-military-bases-in-the-west-in-response-to-nato-expansion).  And as Ukraine's experience has shown, Russian military buildups along its frontiers are not necessarily defensive in nature.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 31, 2022, 09:33:19 AM
Terrified Chechens avoid potential war draft (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F05%2F28%2Fterrified-chechens-flee-avoid-ukraine-call-up-casualties-mount%2F)

Quote"People agreed to this dangerous work because of the hopelessness of things here," she said. "But nobody knew that they would die in someone else's special operation."
Press X to doubt

QuoteThe Z and V insignia of Russia's main battle groups in Ukraine, now adopted by pro-war supporters in Russia, have been plastered across buildings in Grozny. Seemingly everywhere, there are posters of Kadyrov in military uniform and calling for volunteers.
It's beginning to look a lot like fascism...🎵🎶

QuoteMost of these young Chechen men have fled to central Russia or Turkey, which has a large Chechen diaspora. Some have also travelled to live with relatives in Europe.

"There are rumours of mass mobilisation," he said. "Today, many young guys who do not want to go to war are leaving Chechnya.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 31, 2022, 02:31:12 PM
Russian general orders his troops to the front line, mexican standoff ensues, almost becomes a fragging (https://news.yahoo.com/intercepted-audio-shows-russian-soldiers-102055444.html)

Morale problem is an understatement.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 31, 2022, 02:42:15 PM
Looks like meat's back on the menu, boys!"
 (https://polanddaily24.com/5011-39today-we-ate-a-terrier39-russian-soldier39s-shocking-confession)
(https://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2965967/762x508/crop;webp=auto;jpeg_quality=60.jpg)

QuoteYou know, it's f**ked up. We have our a**es kicked by Ukrainians. We have nothing to eat. Today we ate a Yorkshire terrier" - wrote a Russian soldier staying in the Russian-occupied Kherson region in correspondence quoted by the Security Service of Ukraine.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUE1QfYWUAE1zW3?format=png&name=small)

Oof, I felt that "it's okay" lie at the end.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on May 31, 2022, 04:54:29 PM
Not saying it's false, but something about the idea of a Ruscist grunt knowing the difference between a Yorkshire Terrier and their own ass seems a bit far fetched to me.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 31, 2022, 08:35:17 PM
*shrugs* Maybe he googled it with his cellphone or maybe his buds told him.  I'd be curious about what sort of dog it was too.

Besides, is it any more outlandish than Russians stealing toilets, Russians with  rations that expired 7 years ago, using tanks from the 60s, tanks festooned with loot, including a boiler and children's Disney blankets, Russians getting one of their tanks stolen by gypsies (hell, there's a video of a civilian riding on top of a stolen russian tank while eating pizza.  Who wakes up and puts that on their itinerary?), a russian soldier running over his commander with a tank, one KIA russian soldier found with a pink vibrator in his breast pocket (not that there's anything wrong with that), a russian soldier throwing a dog and a grenade into a washing machine, etc.  A LOT of odd things have happened so far.

Odd things happen in war and these are certainly odd people.  Desperation, zero discipline, and lack of adult supervision are a potent combination.

False story or not, the desperate food situation is real.  For some reason, lack of food tends to happen when the area is devastated with scorched earth tactics.

Apparently some Ukrainian teenagers came across some hidden Russian rations and stole them. (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1531177358421544962)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on May 31, 2022, 09:19:53 PM
Russian state TV said they'd conquer Stonehenge (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-anchorman-known-putins-voice-wants-moscow-take-stonehenge-1711482)

Satire is dead and the dividing line between fact and fiction is more unclear than the boundary between the atmosphere and outer space.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 01, 2022, 05:44:28 AM
Two more russian colonels KIA, one of which was "best" paratroop commander (https://news.yahoo.com/putin-loses-two-more-colonels-093112903.html)

Pushing up sunflowers 🌻 🌻
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 01, 2022, 05:47:23 AM
White Russia, bloody hands: Belarus preparing to supply genocidal Russia with tanks (https://uawire.org/kyiv-belarus-removing-tanks-from-storage-to-hand-them-over-to-russia)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 01, 2022, 09:57:54 AM
Lately there has been a lot of speculation about this, but now it looks like it's finally going through:  US to send $700 million worth of military aid to Ukraine, including MLRS systems with a range of 80km. (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-has-promised-us-not-fire-new-50-mile-range-rockets-russia-1711887)  With the stipulation that they may only be fired at targets within Ukraine, not in Russia.  Ukraine's gov has agreed to this stipulation.

This hardware is expected to be a game-changer in these artillery duels, perfect for annihilating russian artillery and ending the war much more quickly and reducing casualties on both sides.  (Though of course, the presence of mind necessary to recognize defeat will be the main limiter for russian casualties)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 01, 2022, 10:30:07 AM
Russia repeats mistakes (https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/russian-military-is-repeating-mistakes-in-eastern-ukraine-u-s-says/) (water is wet)

QuoteIn the early weeks of the war, Russia ran its military campaign out of Moscow, with no central war commander on the ground to call the shots, U.S. and other Western officials said.

Quotethe invasion is not "proceeding particularly differently in the east than in the west because they haven't been able to change the character of the Russian army," said Frederick Kagan, a senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. "There are some deep flaws in the Russian army that they could not have repaired in the last few weeks even if they had tried. The flaws are deep and fundamental."

At the top of that list is the Russian army's lack of a noncommissioned officer corps empowered to think for itself, Pentagon officials said. U.S. troops have sergeants, platoon leaders and corporals who are given tasks and guidelines and left to accomplish those tasks as they see fit.

But Russia's military follows a Soviet-style doctrinal method in which troops at the bottom are not empowered to point out flaws in strategy that should be obvious or to make adjustments.

QuoteAfter renewing an assault on the Donbas, Russia has pounded cities and villages with a barrage of artillery. But troops have not followed that up with any kind of sustained armored invasion, which is necessary to hold the territory they are flattening, military officials say. That means that Russia may find itself struggling to hold on to gains — as it did in Kharkiv.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 01, 2022, 12:07:16 PM

"Are you willing to fight for your country?"
"Absolutely"
"Great, here's a sign-up sheet..."
*runs away* Oh brave Sir Robin!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on June 01, 2022, 01:52:18 PM
From Gary Kasparov's twitter - what other countries would have to "willingly concede to end the war" if it was Russia invading them.

Edit - about to go to work, so don't have time to edit image and post it, here is link to the post.

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1532048112835076096
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 01, 2022, 02:50:09 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on June 01, 2022, 01:52:18 PMFrom Gary Kasparov's twitter - what other countries would have to "willingly concede to end the war" if it was Russia invading them.

Edit - about to go to work, so don't have time to edit image and post it, here is link to the post.

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1532048112835076096
All I know is that if Mexico declared Texas and New Mexico to be "independent" republics, sent tanks there, and then tried some fake referendums for them to join Mexico, all hell would break loose - we would hit them with everything we have and we would not accept any territory changes whatsoever.

No one should expect others to accept things they would never accept.

Besides, any "face-saving" reward for this invasion/genocide attempt will just encourage more attempts in the future.  This needs to hurt so bad that no one tries anything like this again for a long, long time.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on June 01, 2022, 05:13:32 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 01, 2022, 02:50:09 PMAll I know is that if Mexico declared Texas and New Mexico to be "independent" republics...
Now that wouldn't be a case of the pot calling the kettle black....lol.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on June 01, 2022, 05:19:29 PM
Hey now, the US stole that land, fair and square! /sarc
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 01, 2022, 11:36:56 PM
Sad to say, but not many countries that border each other haven't taken land at some point or another.  But the point is, that's not how things should be done anymore.

If we were in Ukraine's position, we wouldn't cede territory (cede territory - that term sounds so clinical and emotionally distant.  These are people's homes and hometowns!  And gone because some dictactor has some weird imperialistic ambition?  The people should be happy and he should kick rocks, not the other way around!)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 02, 2022, 01:22:15 AM
You have failed me for the last time:  Putin fires five generals as Russia's military failures continue (https://www.newsweek.com/putin-fires-five-generals-russia-military-failures-ukraine-continue-1712053)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 02, 2022, 04:58:59 AM
In the southern front, Russia loses two high-speed landing craft (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3497869-ukraine-forces-destroy-two-russian-landing-boats-in-the-dniprobuh-estuary.html) (sunk in their estuary hideout)

Also, Ukrainian forces destroyed an anti-aircraft system, a self-propelled artillery unit, four T-72 tanks, four armored vehicles, three trucks, three drones, and three field munition depots.

You read that right.  Three.  ammo.  depots.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on June 02, 2022, 09:39:21 AM
...And a Putin in a Kremlin...

Wishful thinking, I know.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 02, 2022, 10:01:48 AM
Impressed by Lithuanian fundraiser for Bayaraktar drone, Turkey gives one for free. (https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1709171/turkey-gifts-lithuania-bayraktar-drone-to-hand-it-over-to-ukraine)  1.5M euros will be used to fully equip the drone, the remaining 4.4M euros will be used for humanitarian/military/reconstruction aid to Ukraine.

US plans to sell Gray Eagle drones to Ukraine. (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-plans-to-sell-ukraine-armed-mq-1c-gray-eagle-drones-report)  Equipped with hellfire missiles.  These are essentially upgraded Predator drones.  Yeah, gloves are off.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 03, 2022, 07:54:31 AM
Russia asks China for financial assistance, REJECTED because China fears Allies cutting it off from critical tech (https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1532621982109507585)

Russia thinks China has its back, not realizing that China only really has China's back.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 03, 2022, 08:00:40 AM
In the south, Ukrainian forces catch the invaders "with their pants down" and wipe out a whole battalion (https://www.newsweek.com/arestovich-ukraine-russia-zelensky-1712575).  BIG WIN!

Let me know if this sounds familiar:

QuoteUkrainian troops capitalized on tactical errors made by Russian forces who were trying to advance near the village of Inhulets by the river of the same name.

He said that Russian forces were about to attack using air defense, tanks and other equipment but coordination from Moscow's military command was conducted "very poorly."

QuoteArestovych said that Ukrainian forces organized three crossings of the river and created a bridgehead from where they targeted Russian forces, who lost dozens of pieces of equipment and at least a hundred troops.
3 successful river crossings, that's just adding insult to injury!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 03, 2022, 01:39:40 PM
Russian propagandist shows off Russian flamethrower, runs for his life from Ukrainian return fire (https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1532695309943463939)

And keep running.  Run all the way back to Moscow.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 03, 2022, 01:54:10 PM
Not-so-mysterious fire in Russia: office of Putin's personal army burned down by resistance member with gasoline (https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1532746871608852480)

"Hope does not glimmer, it burns"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 03, 2022, 07:45:54 PM
"Butcher of Syria" couldnt cut it:  General Dvornikov no longer in command (https://news.yahoo.com/general-dvornikov-no-longer-command-155200379.html)

No public appearances for the past two weeks.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on June 03, 2022, 11:40:14 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 03, 2022, 08:00:40 AM3 successful river crossings, that's just adding insult to injury!

Oh, they're just showing off now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 04, 2022, 08:35:18 AM
Russian unit almost totally destroyed (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3499664-ukraine-forces-wipe-out-almost-entire-35th-allrussian-army-in-izium-yermak.html) (combat ineffective from here on out)

QuoteThe Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed almost the entire 35th Combined-Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Izium, Kharkiv region

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/35th_Combined_Arms_Army

It's difficult to figure out the exact casualties, but from what I call figure out, they were down to less than 100 soldiers per brigade and afaik, a russian brigade is supposed to have 2000+ soldiers.

Regardless of the exact figures, it's clear that there's been been a significant loss of manpower in this unit and it speaks to the fierceness of Ukrainian defense forces.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 04, 2022, 09:00:30 AM
Jeez, the latest Institue of War update (https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3) reads like a post-apocalyptic journal:

QuoteA Russian milblogger published a lengthy message on June 3 claiming that nearly the entire 35th Combined Arms Army has been destroyed in Izyum due to incompetent Russian commanders.

QuoteRussian forces also reportedly lacked effective communication with command centers and relied on messengers due to the shortage of encrypted phones. Boytsovyi Kot Murz noted that the lack of communications between Russian units and commanders allowed Ukrainian forces to strike Russian advanced positions with drones. Russian private military company servicemen from Wagner also refused to participate in combat, leading to a significant lack of advances on the Izyum axis.

QuoteRussian and proxy forces reportedly have not sufficiently prepared frontline units with medical supplies, leading to abysmal medical care.

QuoteRussian commanders reportedly failed to learn lessons from the lack of medical equipment during the Battle of Debaltseve in 2015 and are repeating similar mistakes. Boytsovyi Kot Murz claimed that Russian forces do not provide frontline troops with high pressure bandages and other supplies necessary to address limb injuries in time.

QuoteThese claims are consistent with past reports of poor Russian medical care in frontline units, and these conditions are likely a major contributing factor to Russian demoralization and the growing refusal of servicemen to return to frontline units.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 04, 2022, 09:51:36 AM
Russia is throwing everything it has at Siverodonetsk...and is getting pushed back (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-not-realistic-for-russian-forces-to-capture-severodonetsk-in-next-two-weeks-after-ukrainian-forces-recapture-chunk-of-city-governor-claims-12627517).

Shamefully incompetent.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 04, 2022, 10:56:21 AM
Desperate russian forces turn to forced mobilization (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-turns-forced-mobilization-troop-morale-declines-report-1712637)...with underwhelming results.

QuoteRussia's decision to force individuals into service is "highly unlikely to generate meaningful combat power and will exacerbate low morale and poor discipline in Russian and proxy units."

QuoteThe ISW also reported that a military regiment of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) posted a video on Thursday in which "forcibly mobilized" soldiers complained to Putin about how they have spent the war on the front line in the Kherson region without proper food or medicine.

QuoteUkraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence had released an intercepted phone conversation that allegedly revealed DNR soldiers complaining about "physically unfit individuals" among their ranks. It also reported that DNR soldiers said mobilized units had been experiencing "mass drunkenness and general disorder."
So low-quality that it might actually be more of a burden than asset.  But Russian command recycles strats regardless.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 04, 2022, 11:33:13 AM
Copium gas poisoning advisory: 

(https://i.redd.it/i8mj1k180h391.jpg)

Symptoms include:
* Delusional thoughts
* Disordered speech patterns
* Unusally high levels of grammar/spelling mistakes
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on June 04, 2022, 01:17:39 PM
How many Russians will believe that last one?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 04, 2022, 02:00:55 PM
Russia loses at least 1k troops in Sievierodonetsk, possibly 2k losses (https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaUkrainians/status/1533121784114991104?t=UsH-PqmokuKc-2H90zXuOg&s=09)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 04, 2022, 02:43:07 PM
Catching some Zs, smores edition:

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 04, 2022, 09:21:45 PM
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have recaptured Sievierodonetsk.

Russia put their all in capturing that, going on the defensive basically everywhere else.  This isn't looking like it's going to be a victory for Russia.  Not even a pyrrhic victory.  This very well might be a defeat.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 05, 2022, 02:56:35 AM
Mysterious fire in Russia engulfs regional parliament building (https://www.newsweek.com/fire-russia-tyumen-siberia-putin-ukraine-zelensky-1712802)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 05, 2022, 08:53:41 AM
Spain to send Leopard tanks and anti-aircraft missiles (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1533330750917038082)

I haven't posted a lot of "Country Y donates X" news lately but this one caught my attention because until now, Spain hasn't sent heavy equipment to Ukraine afaik.  And now they're sending their modernized main battle tank (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2E).

It highlights widespread goodwill towards Ukraine and material commitments all over Europe to safeguard this country from Russian aggression.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 05, 2022, 11:00:05 AM
Institute of War assessment, June 4th (https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-4)

QuoteHaidai noted that Russian forces wrongfully believe in their own successes, enabling Ukrainian defenders to inflict high losses against unsuspecting Chechen units.
And the Russians could try another opposed river crossing, and you know how those go...

QuoteThe Russian military has concentrated all of its available resources on this single battle to make only modest gains.

QuoteThe Ukrainian government and military are furthermore discussing the battle of Severodonetsk in increasingly confident terms and are likely successfully blunting the Russian military's major commitment of reserves to the grinding battle for the city.
Love it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 05, 2022, 03:02:52 PM
(https://i.redd.it/us1302doct391.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 05, 2022, 03:30:47 PM
The brand new *scoffs* t-62s are adopting a familiar tactic - cope cages (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1533395157671870466).

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUe2oqoXEAIGLGP?format=png&name=900x900)

But unlike sheet metal or wooden logs or BBQ grills (three guesses on what gets barbequed), they're going for what appear to be wooden gazebos on top. An excellent defense against the rangers of Gondor and possibly even Legolas.  *supressed laughter*

Recommended by two out of three little pigs.  *unsuccessfully supressed laughter*

In seriousness, cope cages are a horrible idea (https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/interview_with_russian_tank_operator_how_barbecue_grills_turned_tanks_into_iron_coffins_without_communication_and_what_tankmen_are_afraid_of-3060.html) as explained by a russian soldier who put one on and later removed it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 05, 2022, 04:35:34 PM
Another Russian general killed in Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/5/7350717/)

That's thirteen.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 05, 2022, 09:37:55 PM
(https://preview.redd.it/0jjcc8f8tk391.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=98424094a6b6257da129f0c1dfcc063180b8b246)

Literal translation: between the hammer and the anvil
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 06, 2022, 09:26:08 AM
On Russian state tv, they use a psychic to "work on Zelensky's vibrational frequency", which is apparently similar to Biden's lol.

This is the Russian equivalent of a televangelist "casting out" covid.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 06, 2022, 09:45:11 AM
Russian combat power reportedly on the decline (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-combat-power-decline-ukraine-counterattack-suggests-report-1712979)

Losses have forced Russia to send "degraded" units to areas of fierce fighting.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 06, 2022, 10:07:08 AM
Wormtongue Lavrov's trip to Serbia cancelled due to neighboring countries closing their airspace to Russia (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-slams-move-sergei-lavrov-cancel-serbia-trip-1713048)

Quote"Our diplomacy has yet to master teleportation," a senior foreign ministry source told Russia's state-run Interfax news agency.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on June 06, 2022, 10:40:27 PM
I have an excellent idea for an end to this war invasion of choice. Two easy parts:

1)  Russia. Get your ass out of Ukraine.  It's called 'Ukraine', not Russia. 

2)  Negotiations can begin. 

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 07, 2022, 04:55:35 AM
Sadly, Russia's not going to leave until they get soundly beaten and lose the territory they've gained.

Their current plan is to consolidate their holdings and trigger a food crisis on top of the existing energy crisis, hoping that it generates enough political pressure on Kyiv to halt the war and/or reverse sanctions.

That buys the Kremlin enough time to fully replenish their troops and then resume hostilities until they get what they want - the eradication of Ukraine and a New Russia with more oil and more wheat and freshwater ports.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 08, 2022, 10:04:12 AM
Occupiers abandon checkpoints in Melitopol (https://news.yahoo.com/russian-occupiers-abandon-most-checkpoints-180100681.html)

This is deep in occupied territory.  Very strange and uncharacteristic behavior.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 08, 2022, 10:08:45 AM
Mysterious fires in Russia compilation (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-fires-mystery-ukraine-conflict/31884503.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 08, 2022, 10:24:44 AM
Ukrainian forces destroy "elite" Russian unit (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-an-elite-russian-unit-in-eastern-ukraine-after-a-grueling-14-hour-battle/ar-AAYcNmd?ocid=EMMX&cvid=8e6fde33461740eeac7f75ac8de35476)

The battle lasted for 14 hours before the Ukrainians inflicted heavy casualties and forced a retreat.

QuoteThe Ukrainians went on to say that their Lviv-garrisoned paratroopers gave the Russians a "warm welcome" during the fight, after which the Russian brigade was beaten back in retreat, "leaving in their path through the forest a trail of the bodies of their dead."

"The coordinated actions of the artillery units of the 80th brigade, in the end, inflicted a mass artillery strike on the enemy," the post continued.
The russian unit was based in Pskov and considered elite, so there's a good chance it was the 76th Guards Air Assault Division (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/76th_Guards_Air_Assault_Division) (won't do much assaulting anymore)

In certainly related news, Ukraine estimates that an invader dies every 5 minutes in Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/8/7351175/).  That's 288 per day, which tracks with Ukraine's 50-100/day losses, which are high as well but much less than Russian losses.  Somewhere around a 1:3 or 1:4 ratio sounds plausible, based on reports.  Expect that ratio to change as increasingly sophisticated western arms pour into Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 08, 2022, 10:41:10 AM
In an unencrypted call (god I love these), a Russian soldier recounts brutal Ukrainian ambushes, complains of comparitively inaccurate artillery, and most importantly: lack of replenishment.  Music to my ears.


Keep the intel coming!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on June 08, 2022, 04:39:43 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 08, 2022, 10:41:10 AMIn an unencrypted call (god I love these), a Russian soldier recounts brutal Ukrainian ambushes, complains of comparitively inaccurate artillery, and most importantly: lack of replenishment.  Music to my ears.


Keep the intel coming!
I just don't understand how many times you need to be punched in the face to get it through your skull that you aren't welcome there.

I guess as many times as it takes, but it should not take this many... then again, we spent how many decades in Korea, Vietnam, the Middle East and elsewhere and didn't learn?

At least the Russians might have bit off more than they can chew.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 08, 2022, 08:27:46 PM
Putin doesn't have an accurate picture and never did.  Dictactors rarely receive bad news.

According to one of my favorite books, Why Nations Go To War, one of the top reasons for greenlighting a war (and subsequently losing said war) is inaccurate assumptions. 

E.g. Thinking that the enemy is weaker than they are, thinking that your forces are stronger than they are, thinking the international community will let it slide like last time, etc.  Knowing your capabilities and your opponent's capabilities is at least as important as the presence of a McDonald's.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on June 08, 2022, 08:58:06 PM
I think even Putin at this point understands this has gone south.  He keeps threatening to make things worse.  His 'Don't make me do it' is growing stale.

Is the man vile and juvenile enough to resort to 'if I can't have it you can't either'?  Go away, you petty little shit.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 08, 2022, 09:27:50 PM
He knows it's not going exactly to plan - hence the shift east - but he still thinks this is winnable.

His all-out assault on Severodonetsk is evidence of that, as well as an attempt to project strength that doesn't exist in reality.  News outlets unintentionally aid this - "Severoodonetsk under intense bombardment" "Russia takes more territory in the east!" - it paints the picture of an unstoppable advance, emboldening Z-cultists and potentially disheartening Allies and causing them causing to rethink weapons shipments (if this war drags on and on, the drain on our own resources will be unacceptable, so we should cut off aid now)

The grain move was particularly devious and cruel - sowing discord and finger-pointing among Allies, putting intense pressure on Ukraine to end the war now for civilians' sake (allowing Putin to restart it from a position of strength), and overall causing hardships on the world (if I can't have what I want, I'll flip the table).

Of course, the grain doesn't necessarily have to be delivered from Ukrainian ports.  It could take a land route through Belarus.  Maybe you could cut some sort of deal with Lukashenko...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on June 08, 2022, 10:46:47 PM
Lukashenko is probably sufficiently malleable to such a thing.  Right side of history and all that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 09, 2022, 12:21:10 AM
Russia:  We really really want to get the grain out to all those poor starving people.  Truly.  But first, there's just one tiny incy wincy thing we need you to do:  demine your ports (https://www.reuters.com/world/after-russia-meeting-turkey-says-ukraine-grain-export-plan-reasonable-2022-06-08/)

We definitely won't take advantage of your lowered defenses.  Promise!  There's no landing force (https://m.jpost.com/international/article-708516) or anything just waiting for an opportunity to strike.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 09, 2022, 10:16:51 AM
Russian advance on Izium stalls (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3503045-russias-progress-near-izium-stalled-after-ukraine-armys-successful-maneuvers-uk-ministry-of-defence.html)

Russia tried to reconstitute its units after heavy casualties, but was unable to fully replenish

I'm sensing a theme...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 09, 2022, 10:29:40 AM
In retailiation for sanctions and closed airspace, Russia stole foreign jets in its territory.  Real classy.

Well, it can't get adequate parts to maintain these jets due to sanctions.  So it's turning to bootleg parts, rendering this stolen air fleet useless. (https://www.thedrive.com/news/russias-stolen-planes-will-soon-become-worthless-thanks-to-bootleg-parts)  It's like dumping $10 billion right down the drain.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 09, 2022, 10:44:07 AM
Multiple mysterious fires in Russia at military-industrial buildings (https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1534590214039031809).  Interesting...

Russian radio station hacked, plays the Ukrainian national anthem (https://newsable.asianetnews.com/world/russian-radio-station-hacked-starts-playing-ukrainian-military-anthem-and-anti-war-songs-snt-rd7nf5)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 09, 2022, 11:40:52 AM
Seeds are blooming in Ukraine:

(https://preview.redd.it/6ckexr1m2l491.jpg?width=1043&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd0f35d34a857cde0a39b6f3e1359c882a1dc8a2)

(https://preview.redd.it/quhpbt3m2l491.jpg?width=1033&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b76e6b7df399924a1c4d2fb5f751d50912069ce4)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 09, 2022, 01:32:49 PM
Resistance blows up cafe in Kherson frequented by invaders (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F06%2F08%2Fukraine-resistance-targets-russian-leaders-first-terror-attack%2F)

QuoteThe attack comes as the nascent resistance movement has been putting up "wanted" posters threatening local leaders of the Russian puppet regime. The posters are part of a wider counter-propaganda push, painting Russian occupiers as murderers.

The movement represents a major headache for stretched Russian resources attempting to implement permanent control over new territory, and could spell the beginning of a long underground campaign against occupiers.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 09, 2022, 11:26:15 PM
There's an article that indicates that Ukraine may be slowly winning the artillery duel in Severodonetsk.

But it talks a little too in-detail about Ukrainian positions/composition, so I will not be linking it.  Knowledge is power, guard it well.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 10, 2022, 09:26:22 AM
Russians store their dead at a meatpacking plant, run out of space (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-many-russians-were-072301421.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 10, 2022, 01:43:17 PM
Russians blow themselves up trying to plant antique mines (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russians_blow_themselves_up_trying_to_thwart_ukraines_offensive_with_70_year_old_mines_ukraines_intelligence-3231.html)

QuoteHowever, the russian military responsible for this misappropriated the allocated funds, and instead of recycling sent a dangerous ammo to the front.
Misappropriated funds, aka corruption.

I suppose now is as good time as any for today's feature film:


Russia's military is estimated to have around 20% corruption (i.e. funds diverted from its stated purpose to other areas, usually bribes or personal enrichment).

Big deal, right? An 80% effective army is still pretty powerful.  But because the  higher ups don't know what they don't have and because selling off $50,000 worth of parts effectively renders a multi-million dollar tank worthless, corruption does disproportionate damage to a military.  For example, selling fuel just prior to the war (https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-troops-belarus-exercises-ukraine/31711282.html) and then running out of fuel and then losing the battle for Kyiv.

If Russia wasn't quite so corrupt, Kyiv would be speaking Russian right now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 11, 2022, 10:36:16 AM
Kherson partisans blow up Russian colonel with 3 other invaders (https://m-glavcom-ua.translate.goog/country/incidents/partizani-na-hersonshchini-minusuvali-polkovnika-rf-852168.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

They also apparently blew up an installation that was going to be used to shell a town.

Also, two more generals KIA.  Big news, probably should have led with that.

That's 15 so far.  Russia started the invasion with around 20.  Five more and Zelensky gets to face off against Dr Wiley.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 11, 2022, 10:47:14 AM
More about the newly dead generals:  Scouts behind enemy lines paint Russian bases for devastating artillery barrages (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war.html)

QuoteThis week, partisan scouts working for Ukraine's military behind enemy lines directed artillery attacks on two Russian bases in the occupied Kherson region that killed scores of enemy soldiers, according to a senior Ukrainian military official with knowledge of the attacks.

QuoteThe scouts are local partisans who aid the Ukrainian military on Russian-occupied territory. They might be former soldiers or simply civilians gathering information like the location of enemy units. They can be men pushing potato carts, or farmers, or a grandmother with a cellphone.
I love how they phrase it. Pure paranoia fuel. You are not safe.  Be afraid of everyone and everything.  Lose the will to fight.  Run for your life back to Russia.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 11, 2022, 10:56:37 AM
Ukrainians at battle of Severodonetsk don't seek to control the city, but to inflict maximimum casualties (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/9/2103074/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-s-strategy-in-Severodonetsk-coming-into-clearer-view)

The city is strategically worthless, but apparently half (!) of all Russians in Ukraine are there.  So it's worthwhile to be there just to bombard as many as possible while they're exposed and bunched up.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 11, 2022, 02:10:23 PM
Dear Dictactor: Russia prepares to go full North Korea (https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-cronies-say-putin-is-ready-to-go-full-kim-jong-un)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on June 11, 2022, 03:13:57 PM
^ Well, now. That's depressing. Maybe China can step on Putin's dick?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 12, 2022, 12:20:51 AM
Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the Kherson region. If the latest round of counterattacks is successful, they'll be right on the doorstep of Kherson, the first major city taken by the Russians.

Meanwhile, the invaders have started to distribute russian passports in Kherson and Melitopol (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61770997). 

Partisans in both cities have initiated attacks on occupiers.  And the russian general who planned to hold a fake referendum in Kherson by autimn died instead. 🌻  Both cities are taken but not defeated, so to speak.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 12, 2022, 12:57:57 AM
So here's the dog guy.  Or perhaps it was a different guy.  It mutt-ers not.


He seems strangely enthusiastic about sharing.  Usually I save the guessing game stuff for neat rocks or exotic wildlife, not his...*ahem* hungryman dinner.

Also, literally starving and throwing away "food" - no matter how low-quality - seems kinda irrational.  But fighting fellow slavs for Putin and bankrupting the Motherland in the process seems kinda irrational, too.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 12, 2022, 08:16:12 AM
Ukraine blows up Chechen invader command post (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3505164-chechen-command-post-in-rubizhne-destroyed-in-ukraine-army-attack.html)

QuoteAs for our special forces and gunners, we have three such examples of their coordinated work. They engaged a Wagner PMC base in Stakhaniv. Only one survivor there. A Chechen command post was destroyed in Rubizhne where the enemy death toll is yet to be clarified. Also, a group of Russian soldiers, holding a meeting at the House of Chemists, was eliminated," said the head of Luhansk region.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 12, 2022, 08:26:29 AM
Another mysterious fire broke out in Russia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/military-base-on-fire-in-bryansk-region-russia/) - this one in the Bryansk region just north of Ukraine.

Coincidentally, it  happened at a repair field where Russian military equipment was being repaired following damage in Ukraine.

Fire destroyed at least 8 vehicles (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1535604370913501184), including armored vehicles and logistics vehicles.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 12, 2022, 02:38:00 PM
There's more reistance than I thought.  Kherson farmers kill two occupiers (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1535938883162198017?s=20&t=vPvsHT3fxdgZ4iW8tzvezg)

They'll either drag your tank or your coffin.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 13, 2022, 07:46:32 PM
Anonymous hacks Russian drone company, obtains russian drone tactics/plans (https://www.ibtimes.com/anonymous-hits-russia-devastating-drone-hack-could-speed-end-war-3536482)

QuoteThe operative, who previously took down the official website of the Belarus Ministry of Internal Affairs, did not mince words when asked for a message: "Dictator Putin. For the war crimes, you have committed, the innocent people you have killed and the dozens of people you have destroyed, we will not let you alone," Youranonspider said. "We will expose you and the war crimes you have committed. We will share the crimes of your corrupt government," they added.

"We are in the palace where you hide in your house. we are in the streets, on the cameras of lawless government buildings, on the cell phone of the man you trust the most," they said. "We are in the electronic car navigation system. We are Anonymous. We are Legion. We don't forgive. We do not forget. Expect us," the operative said.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on June 13, 2022, 08:00:53 PM
The enemy of my enemy isn't necessarily my friend, in this case. This is chilling, since they can do it to any country.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 14, 2022, 08:56:19 AM
Ukraine to receive 110 Sky Wiper anti-drone personal weapons from Lithuania (https://gagadget.com/en/137600-lithuanian-journalist-will-give-ukraine-110-edm4s-sky-wiper-guns-to-eliminate-drones-they-were-called-orc-killers/)

Afaik, they've been using this before, so this isn't that huge a deal, but getting them in more hands means that Russian drones are more likely to be shot down (especially if you already know where they're likely to be), denying Russia crucial intel.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 14, 2022, 09:04:03 AM
Ukraine establishes two land routes for grain - one through Poland and one through Romania - to prevent global food crisis (https://english.nv.ua/business/ukraine-has-alternative-grain-export-routes-ukraine-food-crisis-news-50249430.html)

They're not as good as the sea routes, but obviously those cannot be used.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 14, 2022, 01:36:42 PM
Ukrainian forces advance closer to Kherson (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-comes-closer-to-occupied-kherson-russia-invades-ukraine-50249763.html)

QuoteWhen it comes to shelling, unlike the enemy, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are so accurate that they actually hit enemy equipment and ammunition, says Hlan, and, in contrast to the Russian military, not random civilian structures.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 14, 2022, 01:44:54 PM
In case it wasn't already clear what Russia's stance on nazism is, one of their top officials is a dyed-in-the-wool nazi and no one bats an eye (https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1536745576213118981)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 15, 2022, 09:27:33 AM
Putin loses 53rd colonel in 100ish days. (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russian-commander-killed-in-ukraine-colonel-sergei-postnov-putin-moscow-kremlin-b1006220.html)

This one worked for the Ministry of Truth.  So state media says that he's fine, he died accidentally in rough seas, and also that he was killed by NATO.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 15, 2022, 09:37:11 AM
Captain Serhii Ponomarenko awarded Hero of Ukraine (https://mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1536959791062458370?s=20&t=6E2gcuh6G6OGo5UT8-PhdQ)

His unit of 6 tanks fought a battle against 20 Russian tanks.  They destroyed 9 and disengaged with no losses.

No wonder russia is dusting off those T-62s, though it's highly unlikley that they'll accomplish what the T-80s and T-72s could not.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 15, 2022, 10:22:15 AM
Periodic news about Russia reducing outputs of oil pipelines to Europe, which makes no sense to me.  They're actively reducing euros going into their war machine right when they need it the most and dutifully helping anti-Putin activists lobbying their government to reduce/eliminate russian oil imports.

One theory I've heard is that it's so Europe cannot stockpile oil during the summer for the high-demand winter.  Evidently, Russia is going to leverage oil to try to strong-arm Europe into reducing sanctions during the winter when Europe will be in its most dire need of it.

But winter is ~200 days away and the situation in Ukraine has changed dramatically in 100 days.  Can Russia even support the war for that long?

Apparently Putin thinks so (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-says-itll-likely-years-040055079.html), because he put forward the questionable assertion that Europe will continue to buy Russian oil for several years, despite EU countries saying they'll slash Russian oil imports by 90% by the end of the year (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-hungary-european-union-d0d4144c84749f84676a2f41b03b2ad4).

Even if we take Putin's statement (which directly contradicts statements of much more credible leaders of other countries) as gospel, in several years, Europe stops buying Russian oil and Russia's economy tanks hard.  What then?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 16, 2022, 11:52:00 AM
In temporarily Russian-occupied Ukraine, there have been several more instances of defiance/resistance (https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukrainian-farmers-poison-russian-troops-with-spiked-cherries-as-guerrilla-war-terrifies-invaders):

* In Melitopol, farmers poisoned their cherries, so when Russian invaders stole them, there was "mass sickness"

* Also in Melitopol, residents ignored Russia Day, only 15 out of 70,000 Ukrainian citizens stood in line to receive Russian passports

* In Berdyansk, teachers are refusing to teach Russian curricula

* In Mariupol, "unidentified Ukrainian partisans" targetted staffers of Russia's Emergency Ministry.  Outside that ministry's headquarters, several tractors and truck trailers went up in flanes.  Talk about a warm welcome.

* Also in Mariuopol, a Russian Emergency Ministry member was fatally stabbed in the back while standing in a crowd.  Those posters depicting Ukrainian partisans stabbing Russian occupiers from behind aren't far from the truth.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 16, 2022, 12:08:59 PM
The EU announced that EU companies "will be blocked from insuring and financing the transport of Russian oil (https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/16/energy/russia-oil-ships-insurance/index.html) to third-party countries after a transitional period of six months."

Essentially, this further complicates and frustrates Russian efforts to recoup lost sales with Europe by doing business with China and India instead, albeit with steep discounts.

QuoteUninsured or underinsured vessels would not be allowed to enter any major port or pass through important shipping choke points such as the Bosporus or the Suez Canal,
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 16, 2022, 09:13:12 PM
Soon there will be no more Coca-Cola in Russia (https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/coke-bottler-coca-cola-hbc-depleting-stock-russia-2022-06-16/)

To understand just how huge this is, understand that as of 2019, there are only two countries where Coca-Cola is not sold - North Korea and Cuba (https://www.businessinsider.com/what-coca-cola-ads-look-like-around-the-world-2019-8).  That's it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on June 16, 2022, 10:04:28 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 16, 2022, 09:13:12 PMSoon there will be no more Coca-Cola in Russia (https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/coke-bottler-coca-cola-hbc-depleting-stock-russia-2022-06-16/)

To understand just how huge this is, understand that as of 2019, there are only two countries where Coca-Cola is not sold - North Korea and Cuba (https://www.businessinsider.com/what-coca-cola-ads-look-like-around-the-world-2019-8).  That's it.

Fuck Russia with a rusty Coke spoon.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 16, 2022, 11:34:12 PM
Russian army takes massive losses in eastern Ukraine (https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/the-russian-army-is-taking-massive-losses-in-eastern-ukraine/)

QuoteOne of the major issues for the Russian military is a lack of experienced troops. The war has taken a toll on the professional core of the Russian forces.

"As claimed by the Ukrainian authorities, some Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) – typically established at around 600 to 800 personnel – have been able to muster as few as 30 soldiers.
30 soldiers is roughly equivalent to a US platoon.  It's two size categories below a batallion.

So basically, calling 30 guys a batallion is like calling 2 guys a football team.  I mean, technically, with some sort of miracle it's possible for them to score some points.  But they definitely ain't gonna win.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 16, 2022, 11:43:06 PM
 Ukrainian forces destroy Russian ammo depot in Kherson region (https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-russian-ammunition-depot-nova-kakhovka/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 17, 2022, 09:47:44 AM
Russian tugboat downed in rough seas (https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1537693105553649665)

I know it's not as exciting as downing a Slava-class cruiser, but this boat was filled to the gills with weapons and ammo and every time Ukraine blows up another logistics vehicle/ship, it saves civilian lives and reduces the length of the war.

Plus, it tells other ships in the Black Sea to back off, which is always nice.

Gotta take pride in the little victories, too.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on June 17, 2022, 10:32:11 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 17, 2022, 09:47:44 AMRussian tugboat downed in rough seas (https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1537693105553649665)
That may not have been a cruiser, but it was the biggest tug, I've ever seen.  I would never have called it a tug boat myself.  But there's several more millions of rubles down the drain.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 17, 2022, 10:37:37 PM
Dictator Putin cruelly subjects the russian people to unhinged 73-minute long rant about the West and the US in particular (https://kyivindependent.com/national/putin-claims-western-sanctions-failed-says-us-fading-world-power) (QQ + die mad)

What a stable genius who totally has everything under control and doesn't at all drift from delusional imperialistic fantasties where he's some powerful tsar to bitter rage and tears at harsh reality filled with failure.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 18, 2022, 10:38:05 AM
Ukrainian forces are within 10 km of Kherson and civilians have been ordered to evacuate the city.  Suffice it to say that a push there is imminent.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 18, 2022, 02:42:03 PM
Lithuania stops transit of sanctioned goods between Russia and Kaliningrad  (https://english.nv.ua/business/lithuania-stops-transit-of-sanctioned-goods-between-russia-and-kaliningrad-50250744.html)

The ban affects roughly half of all goods being transported from Russia to Kallingrad through Lithuania.

The only alternatives are comparitively more difficult routes by sea or air (gotta watch that restricted airspace).  Tough break for Vlad.  Maybe next time, don't massacre civilians and kidnap kids!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on June 19, 2022, 08:42:28 AM
Russia might be better off if they would just join the rest of the world, rather than try to own it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 19, 2022, 09:27:15 PM
And boom goes the dynamite: 2 invader ammo depots go boom in eastern Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3510120-ukrainian-forces-destroy-two-ammo-depots-almost-90-invaders-in-east.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 19, 2022, 09:33:50 PM
7 invader ammo depots have gone boom in the past 3 days (https://wartranslated.com/day-115-june-18-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/)

QuoteIn last week, there is phenomenal increase in accuracy of Ukrainian artillery. Most warehouses and command centers are destroyed with 1st hit. Possibly better ammo, or better targeting. It's hard to measure and explain such increase
*wink wink*

Quotefor example 10 howitzers alone is nothing significant, but 10 howitzers with improved fire-control systems and artillery radars could be compared to 40 dumb Russian howitzers.
Heh.  Dumbfire, in more ways than one.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on June 20, 2022, 07:36:27 AM
It almost seems like Putin is counting on pulling a rabbit out of a hat.  But then I think, if he actually had a rabbit, he would have used it by now.  I don't have a great grasp of the big picture, but it seems like he's got three options.  Withdraw, go nuclear, or find that rabbit.  He shows no indication of stopping the invasion, and if he drags this out, what might he gain?  Is there some kind of concession he might be looking for?  Again, not having a grasp of the big picture, does the world need Russia at all? Does he have anything he could use to bargain with the rest of the world?

War seldom makes sense, and in this one, I can make no sense out of it at all, even when I reach for something ridiculous to make it seem logical.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 20, 2022, 10:18:57 AM
He really honestly thinks that Western support is going to dry up and he just has to push a little harder and any second now, the Ukrainian battle lines will give way.  Also that the energy and food crises will cause huge amounts of war weariness and we won't sacrifice our own economies for people we've never met and aren't major allies.

And that's partially true, Western support hasn't been quite as high as it could've been (but waaay more than Vlad initially expected), some shipments have been frustratingly delayed, and there is some level of dissention in our ranks, unfortunately.  And Ukrainian forces have unfortunately been in some tough spots.  High casualties, low ammo in some cases, and almost always outnumbered.

But if Vlad thinks the US and UK and Poland are dumping billions of dollars of equipment into Ukraine only to pull out when things get difficult, he has another thing coming.  We're in it to win it.

And when it comes down to war production, the Allies have Russia beat.  When it comes to attrition, Ukraine has Russia beat.  Russia has already lost huge amounts of war materiel (tanks, artillery, precision bombs, elite troops, officers, etc).  Hell, they're down to antique T-62s just three months into the conflict.  The writing is on the wall.  But lest we forget, Vlad can't read.  His world is shaped by his advisors and they blow smoke up his ass.  They tell him that victory is still within his grasp.  And he tells himself that unless he delivers a win, he'll wind up dead in a year.  And so the war drags on.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 20, 2022, 10:32:12 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVr6RFvX0AEpai0?format=png&name=large)

(Obligatory: YouGov polls aren't the most reliable in the world, so take it with a pinch of salt)

But generally speaking, support for Ukraine has not dropped off in the West much at all.  Strong majorities still support sanctions and sending aid to Ukraine and that number had barely changed.  If anything, there's a growing pressure to escalate our involvement and not drag out this conflict.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on June 20, 2022, 11:12:02 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 20, 2022, 10:18:57 AMHe really honestly thinks that Western support is going to dry up.....
If the EU drops the ball now and Ukraine goes away....Don't come a knocking over here when Vlad takes Poland and Hungary and Romania. Germany...talking to you...you do know you are probably the ultimate goal for payback, right?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on June 20, 2022, 12:05:25 PM
Quote from: SGOS on June 20, 2022, 07:36:27 AMIt almost seems like Putin is counting on pulling a rabbit out of a hat.  But then I think, if he actually had a rabbit, he would have used it by now.  I don't have a great grasp of the big picture, but it seems like he's got three options.  Withdraw, go nuclear, or find that rabbit.  He shows no indication of stopping the invasion, and if he drags this out, what might he gain?  Is there some kind of concession he might be looking for?  Again, not having a grasp of the big picture, does the world need Russia at all? Does he have anything he could use to bargain with the rest of the world?

War seldom makes sense, and in this one, I can make no sense out of it at all, even when I reach for something ridiculous to make it seem logical.

Putin's pride is not going to let him stop short of anything less than control of additional territory in eastern Ukraine.

Logistical assistance alone to Ukraine is not going to stop the above from happening. The only thing short of Putin dying or a coup that sees him removed from power that can stop Russia from annexing additional parts of the Ukraine is going to be boots on the ground from NATO countries. Even this probably isn't going to work without taking the fight to Russia by attacking logistical supply lines/hubs in Russia and Belarus. That opens the door to Russia attacking other countries. i.e. WWIII.

Short of military intervention, Ukraine's best option to keep their territory is going to be to make it to expensive for Russia to hold on to it over the long term through insurgent operations. This is going to take years and a lot more people are going to die.

As far as the rest of the world needing Russia goes the answer is yes. Even though Russia is relatively poor by western standards it is the largest country on the planet. They have a significant share of the world's resources. A share that dwarfs their current GDP numbers. The rest of the world needs access to these resources. Over the long term climate change is also likely to open up large swaths of Russia that are currently sparsely inhabited to larger populations. People migrating from other places such as China and India are going to need someplace to go as those countries are negatively impacted by climate change.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 20, 2022, 01:40:32 PM
Ukrainian Air Force destroys russian stronghold (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/20/7353503/), eliminates equipment and soldiers there
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 20, 2022, 06:25:12 PM
A russian senator (a pointless position in a dictatorship) claims that Lithuania not allowing the transport of proscribed goods from Russia to Kallingrad is a casus belli (justification for war)

Countries get to decide what goods cross their own borders, though.  So Russia can sit and spin.

Remember the time they said sending arms shipments to Ukraine was also an act of war and did absolutely nothing?

Also, they're a NATO country so unless Putin wants NATO jets over Moscow, all he has is impotent rage.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 20, 2022, 06:34:56 PM
Two invaders shot dead at Kherson cafe (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1538841198818910213?t=d_3zdji7ZkSMCvBHoH_jbw&s=09)

I hear the drink selection is good, but all they have to eat is lead.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 21, 2022, 09:30:56 AM
In the south, Ukrainian forces destroy a communications station, a radar, an electronic warfare station, and three ammo depots (https://vigilantnews.net/en/2022/06/21/ukraine-army-eliminates-25-invaders-communications-station-three-ammo-depots-in-country-s-south/)

They're definitely getting softened up and deprived of resources before the big push.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 21, 2022, 01:39:14 PM
Crazy dictator mouthpiece says that Moscow-caused famine is sure to cause West to drop sanctions and be friends with Russia again (https://crooksandliars.com/2022/06/putin-mouthpiece-claims-west-sanctions?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_content=61469)

Quote"Now the famine will start and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us because they will realize that it is impossible not to be friends with us"
Crazy ex logic.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 21, 2022, 01:43:17 PM
Snake Island struck.  Again. Garrison suffers significant losses. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3511913-ukraine-army-strikes-snake-island-russians-suffer-significant-losses.html)

Russia's favorite tourist attraction and final destination.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 21, 2022, 01:50:39 PM
Poster in Kherson:

(https://i.redd.it/dtma3i2zmy691.jpg)

Poster in Melitopol:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVyMAlHXEAEOHi2?format=jpg&name=large)
"Syrians, we will cut you down like dogs" (Putin convinced a few hundred Syrians to join the war as mercenaries)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 21, 2022, 02:01:48 PM
Putin loses 55th Colonel (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-loses-55th-colonel-27277914) 🌻

His helicopter was hit by a missile.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 21, 2022, 07:22:37 PM
Russian Nobel Peace prize winner sells it to raise $103.5 million for Ukrainian children (https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-nobel-peace-laureate-muratov-sells-medal-104-mln-aid-ukraine-children-2022-06-21/)

(https://media-exp2.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E12AQGr8tjHiK1FTw/article-cover_image-shrink_600_2000/0/1634081361707?e=1661385600&v=beta&t=xy_GyjJDF6emkmeMddBBIhnq5EitHb6J15m_W0aTGXk)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 21, 2022, 07:33:11 PM
Operation Bulldog is a go!  MAJOR operation lauched on the southern front. (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/21/7353843/)

Government of Ukraine requests operational silence during this critical time.

(https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/7ZIAAOSwK-Fghdd9/s-l400.jpg)

You will hear no further updates from me about the southern front except for whatever the Ukrainian government deems fit to tell the world.

++ INFORMATION IS AMMUNITION ++
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on June 21, 2022, 08:16:42 PM
I served in the US Navy during the time that the Walkers sold intelligence to foreign adversaries. While I wasn't directly affected, many of our military lost their lives because of it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on June 21, 2022, 09:28:30 PM
^ Fuck off and die.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Sorginak on June 21, 2022, 10:00:22 PM
He really went a spammin'
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on June 21, 2022, 10:15:17 PM
Where is the emoji with the villagers carrying torches!?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 22, 2022, 01:24:13 AM
A goat seriously injured several invaders (https://www.ibtimes.com/goat-injures-russian-soldiers-triggering-tripwires-grenades-3546435) by wandering into a grenade tripwire and setting off a chain reaction

It's unclear if the goat survived the incident.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on June 22, 2022, 06:06:11 AM
The GOAT goat.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on June 22, 2022, 06:53:37 AM
Quote from: Sorginak on June 21, 2022, 10:00:22 PMHe really went a spammin'
He didn't seem to be able to follow the topic of conversation.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 22, 2022, 01:35:14 PM
Dare you to try (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/state-department-russia-lithuania-nato)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 22, 2022, 04:37:23 PM
I'm in your base:

Loitering drone crashes into oil refinery in Russia (https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1539514526428803072), explodes and causes a fire (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/22/russian-novoshakhtinsk-oil-refinery-struck-drone-possible-attack-inside-borders)

Russian armored transport destroyed on Russian soil, border guards killed (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1539596174243528705)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 22, 2022, 09:08:45 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 22, 2022, 10:46:19 PM
Mounting signs that Russia is purging its generals in Ukraine (https://www.businessinsider.com/mounting-signs-the-kremlin-is-purging-top-generals-in-ukraine-experts-2022-6?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds) (the ones who still live)

This tells us two things:

1) Russia is losing this conflict.  You don't sack winners.

2) Russian leadership will likely continue to be poor or possibly even deteriorate further as experienced generals are scapegoated and replaced with fresh faces more skilled at blame-shifting than actually running a war.  (Leadership is also deteriorating due to battlefield losses)

Dysfunction at the top begets dysfunction at the bottom.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on June 22, 2022, 10:51:47 PM
Not quite the normal topic here, but something a little more light-hearted while still showing whats going on in Ukraine; a Ukrainian youtuber, forced to flee to Germany, just moved back to Ukraine and is trying to do humor while reacting to Ukrainian war memes.

A weird lens into a depressing, unwarrantedly-made weird life.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 23, 2022, 07:19:06 AM
HIMARS (long-range missile artillery) now in Ukraine  (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-celebrates-us-long-range-rocket-systems-arriving-after-months-of-asking-summer-will-be-hot-for-russian-occupiers/ar-AAYM9VI?li=BBnb7Kz)

Quote"Summer will be hot for Russian occupiers. And the last one for some of them," he said.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 23, 2022, 08:55:05 AM
UK announces new round of sanctions (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-23-22/h_879c7d12c5fa479fd0422c9fc8423782), including oil refining goods and technology, jet fuel and additives, and the export of british sterling or euros to Russia

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 23, 2022, 10:56:45 AM
EU overwhelmingly approves EU candidacy for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia (https://au.news.yahoo.com/european-parliament-overwhelmingly-approves-eu-102231942.html?soc_src=community&soc_trk=tw)

QuoteVolodymyr Zelensky, who applied for membership at the start of the war, said: "This is like going into the light from the darkness."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 23, 2022, 11:00:57 AM
Nike is finally leaving Russia entirely after suspending business back in March
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 23, 2022, 11:10:36 AM
Copium overdose: Russia says Ukraine must accept all its demands before peace (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-peskov-kremlin-war-end-terms-peace-1718445)

Putin's crony didn't state what these demands are, simply saying that Ukraine already knows what they are.

This is why Ukraine needs a big military win and therefore enough international aid to make that happen.  Putin still thinks he can dictate terms.  Until his armies are shattered, there can be no peace.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 23, 2022, 07:30:04 PM
In news that will surprise no one, NATO to increase the size of its army (https://www.newsweek.com/nato-massively-expand-army-bid-deter-further-putin-aggression-ukraine-defense-1718435), specifically in eastern and southeastern europe - areas near Russia.

Previously, NATO has relied on a "tripwire" approach where a small number of soldiers serve as a deterrent and alerts all other forces when things are amiss.

For obvious reasons, this approach is insufficient. Especially if say, Russia/Belarus were to invade towards Kallingrad, rapidly encircling the Baltic states.  Estonia in particular is leery about that (https://www.ft.com/content/a430b191-39c8-4b03-b3fd-8e7e948a5284) and understandably isn't keen on waiting 180 days for NATO to come to the rescue.  Russia's demonstrated penchant for genocide makes a slow response particularly disagreeable.

Instead, NATO forces in the area will be expected to bear the brunt of any invasion and to beat the enemy back or at least substantially delay them before reinforcements arrive.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 23, 2022, 08:45:22 PM
US is considering training Ukrainian fighter pilots on F-15s and F-16s (https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540012718224293890)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 24, 2022, 08:15:30 AM
Russian military cargo plane crashes in Russia, killing 4 nazis (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cargo-plane-crash-lands-near-russias-ryazan-seven-injured-ifax-2022-06-24/)

Russian pilots fly so low in Ukraine that they crash themselves into the ground (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/06/24/russian-jets-are-flying-so-low-to-dodge-ukrainian-air-defenses-that-theyre-running-into-the-ground/?sh=1abf184ea251)

Russian air defense reportedly struck a nazi position (https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1540214406549749766) (it bombed itself in its confusion)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 24, 2022, 08:25:59 AM
Russia lacks pilots due to heavy losses (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3513976-russian-army-lacks-pilots-amid-heavy-losses-british-intel.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 24, 2022, 08:31:30 AM
Ukrainian air force blows up invader ammo depot (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3513927-ukrainian-air-forces-strike-enemy-ammunition-depot-armored-fighting-vehicles.html), up to 30 armored vehicles, and a vehicle repair depot
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 24, 2022, 08:52:31 AM
Cisco to leave Russia and Belarus (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/23/cisco-announces-wind-down-of-operations-in-russia-belarus-a78088)  They had previously suspended operations on March 3rd, now they're completely leaving.

Russia has already had network problems. (https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/technology/russia-facing-internet-outages-due-to-equipment-shortage/)  Expect to hear about major service outages later on this year.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 24, 2022, 02:13:00 PM
Kallingrad business owner complains about sanctions (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61902322) and how rough he has it.

I hear ya, man.  Things are pretty rough for Ukrainian civilians, too - massacred, homes destroyed, or trying to survive in occupied territory.  And let's not forget the hundreds of thousands of people Putin will starve with this deliberate grain disruption.  But sure, let's hear about the woes of a concrete business.

Quote"We aren't making anything, so builders can't build anything. There's a chain reaction. We have nothing to pay contractors, taxes or wages."
No tax revenue?!  Awful. Just awful.  One quick question: to whom is this tax money owed and how will they spend it?  Ok, maybe not so awful after all.

Quote"I hope we can reach an agreement with the Lithuanians on transit, because they're not bad people," Svetlana tells me.

"They're not evil! The Poles aren't bad, either. We don't share a border with Russia, but with Poland and Lithuania. They're like family to us. We need to restore relations."
Yeah, it's important to be on good terms with one's neighbors, isn't it?

Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he's peace-loving and against Putin.  Wars have far-reaching consequences.  In fact, they primarily affect the blameless.  His is one such example among a great many.  I hope he realizes that it's not the Lithuanians who did this to him, it was ultimately Putin's war of aggression that hurt his business.  If Putin had kept his tanks on his side of the border, Kallingrad would not be under sanctions and his concrete business would be operating normally.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 25, 2022, 02:18:16 AM
Ukrainian forces are pulling out of Severodonetsk.

Not the best sounding headline in the world, but a necessary move.  A largely obliterated town with no strategic value.  Its only value was luring Russian troops to a place where they could be bombarded.  An extremely costly and mostly hollow "victory" for Putin.

And since Putin put almost everything he had in taking it - it's amazing that the Ukrainians held out as long as they did while heavily outnumbered - russian advances on the eastern front have lost a lot of steam.

Hopefully, as Ukrainian forces transition to western equipment, retaking it will be much, much easier than defending it.

As the Institute for the study of war puts it (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24):

QuoteAn unnamed Pentagon official noted that Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk will allow Ukrainian troops to secure better defensive positions and further wear down Russian manpower and equipment.[3] The Pentagon official noted that Russian forces pushing on Severodonetsk already show signs of "wear and tear" and "debilitating morale," which will only further slow Russian offensive operations in Donbas.

QuoteRussian forces have been attempting to seize Severodonetsk since at least March 13, exhausting their forces and equipment over three months.[4]

Ukrainian forces will likely maintain their defenses around Lysychansk and continue to exhaust Russian troops after the fall of Severodonetsk.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on June 25, 2022, 06:10:57 AM
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/vk7rh7/russian_surfacetoair_missile_does_a_uturn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 25, 2022, 07:12:11 AM
Yep.  An absolutely amazing example of self-destruction.  I wish that all their launches went so terribly awry.

There has also been footage of missiles that didn't quite take off and ones that didn't explode on impact, like that one that famously lodged itself in someone's kitchen (apparently, the stove was a high-value strategic target)

All in all, about a 60% failure rate (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/).  Unfortunately, they seem to be deliberately targetting urban centers to sow terror and civilian deaths, where precision is not important.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on June 25, 2022, 07:31:00 AM
60 %?! Oh, glad to hear that. Thanks for saying something good. Hard to come by these days. Everything's so fucked up everywhere... I admit, I've watched it a dozen times.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 25, 2022, 07:35:29 AM
Periodically, Russia claims that it has destroyed a western arms shipment, or captured western equipment in Ukraine, or killed some NATO forces operating in Ukraine (a particularly difficult task since there are no NATO forces in Ukraine)

I've waited with baited breath for evidence, yet none is ever forthcoming.

Such claims are falsehoods (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/france-denies-russian-reports-captured-083000229.html) concocted mainly to buoy flagging Russian morale by implying that western arms are not bolstering Ukrainian forces (the opposite is true) and to sow division among Allies by implying that arms shipments are not having much of an effect (the opposite is true).

Every now and then, some particularly credulous or russian-aligned western politician or shoddy news network falls for it and repeats dubious/deceitful claims ultimately coming from the Kremlin.  Either way, it highlights the wisdom of putting more trust in those with credibility than those without it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 25, 2022, 10:43:24 AM
Here's a strange story (https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/ex-mp-turned-collaborator-found-to-store-over-6000-unique-artifacts-from-crimea-worth-millions-of-dollars)

QuoteEx-Ukranian MP bought millions of dollars worth of historical artifacts stolen from Crimea, then fled to Russia on the eve of the invasion.

In addition, Horbatov is directly involved in the activities of the Horlivka Paper Mill and the Charitable Union (BS) LLC, which operate in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, pay taxes there and, in fact, finance illegal armed terrorist groups.

SBI Director Oleksiy Sukhachov said that the agency's investigators had gathered irrefutable evidence of Horbatov's involvement in financing actions aimed at overthrowing the constitutional order in Ukraine, changing its borders or state border, and justifying aggression against Ukraine.
Suffice it to say that his interests extend far beyond old clay pots.

The obvious question: why didn't he bring his treasure trove with him?  More than likely, he couldn't move it in time, so he hid it and fully expected to return to it at war's end, which he likely thought wouldn't take very long.  Quite the miscalculation.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 25, 2022, 08:44:27 PM
Catching some Zs:  reportedly, HIMARS first target (https://mobile.twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1540796059672363008) 🌻

Official UA source (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3515150-himars-in-action-enemy-command-posts-destroyed-in-donbas-media.html)

QuoteOn June 24, the Ukrainians destroyed a command post of the 20th Army of the Russian Armed Forces' Western Military District (unit 89425, originally based in Voronezh), located in a school building. As a result of the strike, a significant number of Russian officers with the army headquarters were hit, while much of the enemy equipment parked at the site was damaged.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 25, 2022, 09:14:43 PM
Ukrainian forces also hit 6 invader MRLS


One got brewed up so badly that missiles fired themselves off in random directions.  There's not going to be any salvage from that one.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 26, 2022, 09:30:09 AM
Russian cruise missiles strike Kyiv (https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-war-kyiv-expolosions-syevyerodonetsk-belarus/31915504.html), hitting a residential building and a kindergarten playground.

Among the seriously wounded is a russian citizen and her daughter

They also shelled to death a 13-year-old riding her bike.  :(

Edit: Russian hot takes (https://www.reddit.com/gallery/vl3huq) on the situation are every bit as bloodthirsty while simultaneously cowardly as everyone has come to expect from them.  Dictator-loving Z-zombies abandoned their humanity long ago.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 26, 2022, 09:58:41 AM
Russia has increased its military presence in Belarus and launched an increasing number of attacks from Belarus, likely both as an attempt to draw Belarus into Putin's war of aggression and as a cowardly sort of protection, since Ukrainian forces cannot retaliate without attacking Belarus and giving it cause to go to war.

Russia has also threatened to attack Lithuania and threatened to deploy nukes in Belarus.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 27, 2022, 12:27:17 AM
The wolf bites back:  Ukraine strikes ammo depots deep in temporarily occupied territory (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/27/ukraine-starts-hitting-ammunition-depots-deep-in-russias-rear/)

Due to Ukraine's relative scarcity of soviet rockets, Ukraine has had to use them sparingly.  So some juicy targets have unfortunately been neglected.  Donated HIMARS changes that. 

And Ukraine is making good use of them by striking Russia's weakspot - logistics and C&C - ammo depots and command posts respectively.  Without copious munitions, Russia's indiscriminate bombing campaign is significantly lessened.  And without officers to spur on troops, orcs simply hold their current position indefinitely.

In short, HIMARS are slowing down Russia's offensive, eventually stalling it and allowing Ukraine to go on the offensive.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 27, 2022, 09:14:11 AM
Russia finally defaults (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/27/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1917-revolution-reports)

Sanctions have made an impact, but Russia is by no means destitute.  Russia still sells plenty of oil and natural gas to the West and others.  But its military still relies on some western components, despite attempts to DIY replacements, and losing access to that has crippled production of advanced weapon systems.  Also, its civilian service economy has been heavily disrupted, and while Russia has tried to rely on non-western replacements, you can't just DIY semiconductors, so things are not progressing well for Russia in that area.  Ukraine is hitting Russia's service sector about as hard as the worst days of covid.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 27, 2022, 09:30:22 AM
(https://preview.redd.it/scfe0h4af5891.jpg?width=6720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5d5fed64beb689e35861577cc26c7649395662ca)

Kyiv sent some bombed out z-tanks to Warsaw as part of an art exhibit entitled "The Invincible Army" (https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/first-war-damaged-russian-tanks-go-on-show-in-warsaw-to-prove-that-the-russians-can-be-defeated-31334) (the irony being that it was the Ukrainians who proved invincible, not the Russians, despite initial assumptions)

Quote"Ukrainian soldiers are defending not only their homeland, but also the security of Poland and the whole of Europe," Dworczyk continued, referring to the title of the exhibition."If it were not for the heroic resistance, determination and courage of Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers, ordinary civilians who took up arms overnight, it is very likely that Russian tanks would be at the Polish border today," he said.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 27, 2022, 01:50:05 PM
Crowded shopping center in central Ukraine hit by russian missiles.  Around 1000 people there at the time of the attack.

Nowhere near any military targets.  This was a 100% deliberate act of terrorism.

It's abundantly clear that Russia cannot be trusted to abide by international law or basic morality.  After the war, Russia must demilitarize as a precondition for even the possiblity of an end to sanctions.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 28, 2022, 05:06:51 PM
Russia says that Ukraine's plans to liberate Crimea from Russian occupation would be an act of war (read: threats)

But Russia also said that a bunch of stuff constituted an act of war, like sending Ukraine any sort of aid.

So I've gotta ask, is Russia prepared to do anything more terrible than what it's already doing?  If not, get stuffed.  If yes, all the more reason to double down on support for Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 07:26:09 AM
Turkey agrees to Sweden and Finland joining NATO (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197251.htm)

Looks like there's nothing stopping those two countries from joining NATO.  Another tough break for Putin.  NATO will soon have a much larger border with Russia and more support for the three Baltic states.

Putin, who wanted NATO to stop expanding, has done more than anybody in causing it to expand and become more formidable than ever.

(https://i.imgur.com/17HLbsw_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 07:37:27 AM
Ukraine to get guided shells for its artillery from the US (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/06/28/ukrainian-artillery-is-about-to-get-a-lot-more-accurate/?sh=76ae331b173c). 

This will make their artillery strikes much more accurate than they have been so far and really put the hurt on Russia.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 07:47:00 AM
US to bolster its military presence in Europe (https://mobile.twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1542063170172452868): permanent military HQ in Poland, additional F-35s, additional destroyers, additional air-defense.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on June 29, 2022, 09:41:11 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 07:26:09 AMTurkey agrees to Sweden and Finland joining NATO (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197251.htm)
Nato has formally invited Sweden and Finland to join the alliance.  I can't keep up.  Has Ukraine been invited already?.  Putin needs to know he doesn't have a right to invade other countries just because he shares a border with them.  Good grief, I don't want another war, but Putin is way out of order, and needs to feel the power of the west right in his face.  He needs to be humiliated and not given any chance to save face.  We may need to take this war right to Moscow, and I mean geographically right to Moscow, not in some metaphorical sense.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 11:00:01 AM
Finland and Sweden are in the process of joining NATO, afaik Ukraine is not.

But Ukraine is in the process of joining the EU.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 12:50:27 PM
An oldie but a goodie:

(https://i.redd.it/r3q9l3xp0k891.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on June 29, 2022, 02:26:56 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 12:50:27 PMAn oldie but a goodie:

(https://i.redd.it/r3q9l3xp0k891.jpg)
What a fail of intelligence. Also, what a fail of intelligence!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 07:22:20 PM
144 Ukrainian POWs freed in prisoner exchange (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-mariupol-prisoners-of-war-exchange-freed-170902486.html)

95 of them were defenders from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol

43 of those are members of the Azov Regiment

Prisoner exchanges are always a net win for Ukraine since Russian soldiers are comparitively worthless.

Edit - the Free Russia soldiers are alright.  So I guess it's not so much nationality as it is dictactor boot-licking.  Leads to spinal damage, or so I've heard.  So it makes sense that so many pro-Putin troops are trying to leave combat for medical reasons, citing spinal damage.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 10:30:30 PM
Ukrainians raise $20 million to buy more Bayraktar drones, the company donates three for free (https://www.reuters.com/world/turkeys-baykar-donate-three-uavs-ukraine-after-crowdfunding-campaign-2022-06-27/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on June 29, 2022, 10:42:16 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 07:22:20 PM144 Ukrainian POWs freed in prisoner exchange (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-mariupol-prisoners-of-war-exchange-freed-170902486.html)

95 of them were defenders from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol

43 of those are members of the Azov Regiment

Prisoner exchanges are always a net win for Ukraine since Russian soldiers are comparitively worthless.

Edit - the Free Russia soldiers are alright.  So I guess it's not so much nationality as it is dictactor boot-licking.  Leads to spinal damage, or so I've heard.  So it makes sense that so many pro-Putin troops are trying to leave combat for medical reasons, citing spinal damage.

Not sure how all Russian tanks got to Ukraine. But in the past, Russians have dropped tanks from aircraft with parachutes, with the soldiers in them. Could that be the cause of spinal damage claims? Or is the suspension system in them such shit? No idea.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on June 30, 2022, 12:03:58 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpTTWYNVSlw
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 12:08:22 AM
Since WWII, military vehicles have been airdropped (sometimes with hilariously costly results if the parachute doesn't deploy correctly)

It's not super common for tanks to be airdropped, but it can be done.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/C-130_airdrop.jpg)

Afaik, never with the troops inside them.  That'd be way too risky and not at all advantageous compared to them dropping alongside the tank.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 02:28:58 AM
Meet the heroes: Shaman Battalion  (https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-special-ops-team-carries-121000801.html)

Highly skilled and fit soldiers who infiltrate Russia and conduct sabotage operations to the bewilderment of its guards. 

They were also involved at the pivotal battles at Hostomel airport and at a strategic site just west of Kyiv when those big "stack of doom" convoys were making headlines.  Don't hear much about them anymore for some reason...

They also train total newbies, which must be a helluva crash course!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 02:55:30 AM
The geniuses over at the Kremlin apparently figured out how to work Google Maps and have "leaked" the locations of both the NATO summit and Pentagon (https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-publishes-pentagon-coordinates-says-western-satellites-work-our-enemy-2022-06-28/), presumably in preparation for some sort of attack, though that seems incredibly unlikely.

Now, I'm not a military tactician of any kind, but I could've gotten this info during a bathroom break at Amazon.

Hell, I could even go on a tour of the Pentagon whenever I feel like it.  It's not like it's Area 51.

This stunt just screams extreme, barely believable levels of ignorance (next, they'll be doxxing our embassies) combined with a severe misapprehension of US resolve.  The latter certainly hasn't been doing them any favors in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 03:21:18 AM

Apparently, Russian officers are asking for bribes to transfer troops away from war, but renege after getting the money.  I sense frag grenades in their future.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 04:46:04 AM
Ukrainian forces strike Snake Island.  Again. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3518436-ukraines-armed-forces-strike-another-russian-pantsirs1-system-on-zmiinyi-island.html)

Putin lost yet more troops, howitzers, vehicles, and another fuel depot.

Edit - also an air defense system (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3518436-ukraines-armed-forces-strike-another-russian-pantsirs1-system-on-zmiinyi-island.html)...to an air unit, its intended target.  Humiliating.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 09:42:49 AM
UK pledges additional £1 billion ($1.22 billion) in military aid (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61990479)

This brings the total up to £2.3 billion in military aid, with an additional £1.5 in humanitarian aid.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on June 30, 2022, 10:04:32 AM
After reading a few articles, I wonder if the amount of Russian equipment destroyed is even significant compared to the equipment lost to corruption.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 10:11:31 AM
In the eastern front, the Ukrainian Air Force uses fighters and bombers to destroy a command post, two ammo depots, and a rocket artillery weapons depot (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/30/7355502/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 10:29:06 AM
Quote from: Cassia on June 30, 2022, 10:04:32 AMAfter reading a few articles, I wonder if the amount of Russian equipment destroyed is even significant compared to the equipment lost to corruption.
Hard to say.  Especially since corruption often plays a crucial role in its destruction.  We do know that a significant amount of russian equipment was abandoned, likely due to a combination of damage, poor maintenance (which may or may not be corruption-related), and poor morale.

Imho, both corruption and western tech played a major role in russian equipment losses.  A lessening of either one would've changed the outcome of these battles considerably.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 10:45:43 AM
Update: Russia abandons Snake Island (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-steps-up-attacks-ukraine-after-landmark-nato-summit-2022-06-30%2F)

QuoteRussia's defence ministry said it had decided to withdraw from the outcrop as a "gesture of goodwill"
🤣 Oh man, the Russian comedy club is open today!  The mouth of Sauron speaks of generosity.  Risible.

Quote"KABOOM!" tweeted Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff. "No Russian troops on the Snake Island anymore. Our Armed Forces did a great job."

Quote"The enemy hurriedly evacuated the remains of the garrison with two speed boats and probably left the island. Currently, Snake island is consumed by fire, explosions are bursting."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on June 30, 2022, 06:08:35 PM
Ukraine shoots down a Russian attack helicopter near Snake Island (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3519074-ukrainian-military-shoot-down-russias-ka52-approaching-snake-island.html)

QuoteAccording to the South Operational Command, Russians attempted to organize a rescue operation, but their helicopter joined the missile cruiser Moskva, which had sunk earlier.
Rough seas even in the air.  The Ukrainians sure know how to rub it in.  :P

QuoteIn the Black Sea, the enemy's naval group now consists of two missile ships and two large landing crafts. They continue to blockade the north-western part of the Black Sea but keep a far distance, as they became vulnerable after Russia's air defense on Snake Island was destroyed.
Snake Island was an important staging ground, air defense, and an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" for a nation whose fleet is shockingly sinkable.  Well, if the ship is invulnerable, then the most vulnerable thing there are the men on it...

And without either the Moskva or Snake Island to provide air defense for its much more vulnerable vessels, the Black Sea fleet is again forced to keep its distance or incur Neptune's wrath.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 01, 2022, 12:19:15 AM
Russia deliberately starving Mauripol residents (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-halts-mariupol-deliveries-almost-all-food-goods-gone-ukraine-1720853)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 01, 2022, 06:48:56 AM
Wives of Russian soldiers plead for their withdrawal from war (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/29/russian-wives-plead-for-husbands/)

QuoteA group of wives of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine since the invasion began on Feb. 24 recorded an extraordinary video appeal to local authorities to bring their men home alive. One of them called the war "unjust" in comments on social media and said authorities must take the blame for any more men killed.
Certainly a bit of a departure from the official line...

Quote"The servicemen are exhausted morally and physically. They all have mild to moderate concussions. The soldiers have been in the field from January to the present day. Many people have flu-like diseases," the statement said.
'All according to plan', says Putin.  Then it's a pretty sick and twisted plan. 

Conscientious Russians must quit the war in order for there to be peace again. Putin has no conscience, so you must do it yourselves.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 01, 2022, 01:39:42 PM
Putin blames West for "forcing" him to accelerate "unification" with Belarus  (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/1/7355824/)

Looks like Putin's so desperate for additional manpower than he's looking to takeover Belarus and use Belarusians as his new cannon fodder.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on July 01, 2022, 08:58:12 PM
Belarus seems to have a little say over this matter of joining the war. Good luck Vlad.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 01, 2022, 09:26:19 PM
Russia bombs Snake Island to destroy the equipment they were forced to abandon (https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1542944402850697217?s=21&t=DtQTIPbEtfHlO3Y7S2EPBQ)

Essentially, Russian munitions and Russian equipment are destroying each other.  So awful.  Please don't repeat the process all over temporarily occupied Ukraine.  That would make me so unhappy.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 02, 2022, 08:20:42 AM
Russian officials terrified of working in temporarily occupied territory, demand security guarantees (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3520102-moscow-officials-terrified-of-working-in-occupied-areas-of-ukraine-demanding-security.html)

The poor sods guarding ammo depots 50km from the frontlines don't get security guarantees.  The personel at Berdyansk port don't get security guarantees.  Hell, people working in Belogrod - in Russia - don't get security guarantees.

Being in Ukraine is hazardous to your health.  Anything could happen at any moment.  Leave while you still can.  Flee like your life depends on it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 02, 2022, 08:35:27 AM
Separatist fighters calls Russian soldiers war criminals and imbeciles (https://news.yahoo.com/separatist-fighter-reportedly-told-wife-154815382.html)

QuoteDuring the phone call, the soldier describes disorganization and chaos among the Russian soldiers, using a slur to call Putin's forces morons and comparing soldier infighting to those who mutinied during World War I.

"Like during the war on Potemkin, in the night, they had support come in to help them, and they started firing on themselves, Russians firing on Russians, destroying themselves," he says.

QuoteThe separatist fighter also complains that Russian forces aren't allowing them to rotate off the front lines.

"I just want them to get us out of here," he said, adding that he thinks the Russians aren't allowing soldiers off the front lines because they're afraid they'll desert and never return.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 02, 2022, 02:15:36 PM
Ukrainian forces used a Harpoon missile to sink a Russian resupply ship headed to Snake Island (https://news.usni.org/2022/07/01/dod-ukraine-sinks-russian-supply-ship-with-harpoon-missile)

There's a lot of low-quality steel and Russian uniforms at the bottom of that sea.  Russia should consider the environmental impact of such deployments before starting wars.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 02, 2022, 10:55:55 PM
Not so fast, Comrade:  Russian soldiers detain their commander so that he won't flee war (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3520593-russian-soldiers-take-their-commander-prisoner-so-that-he-would-not-flee-intercept.html)

QuoteEarlier, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that the employees of the Russian security agencies had begun to write resignation reports massively.
Hmmm...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on July 02, 2022, 11:34:45 PM
I'm sure you guys know the traditional drunk Russian videos? I've been thinking about those and since this shit has started. It's hopeful when you look at that way, isn't it?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 03, 2022, 06:54:52 AM
Ukrainian forces blow up military base in Melitopol (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3520685-ukrainian-forces-destroy-russian-military-base-in-melitopol.html)

Resistance also derailed a train carrying russian military. Again.

I'm noticing a pattern - if a tactic works against the invaders, it can be used again  and again and it'll be just as effective a month from now as today.  They don't learn or adapt, they just send more men and more bombs.  They'd rather run out of both than learn a thing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 03, 2022, 07:14:21 AM
Russia tacitly admits it's running out of weapons for Ukraine war (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-putin-admits-running-out-weapons-ukraine-war-invasion-state-duma-law-1720957), seeks to revamp war production/repair/resupply
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 03, 2022, 02:30:28 PM
^ related story:  Russian defense firms refuse to repair equipment damaged in Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3520928-russian-factories-refusing-to-repair-military-equipment-damaged-in-ukraine-intel.html)

Quoterepair companies instructed their staff not to accept the incoming equipment. The reason behind their stance is the lack of components and insufficient funds paid by the military for the work already completed.
Ouch.  Tried to swindle the defense sector during a war.  I'm not surprised that they refuse to lift a finger now.  They're gonna let Cheapskate Dictator twist in the wind till he gets what he's owed or they get what they're owed.

Quote"The command tried to address the issue by deploying field repair brigades, which were supposed to operate in close proximity to the combat zones. However, corruption and greed for profit among the Russian military leadership brought the attempt to naught," intelligence analysts stressed.
Corruption even knee deep in war.  That's quite a commitment to losing!  I dunno if that's a twisted sort of heroism or not, but either way, Ukraine thanks them along with the free world.

QuoteBefore the damaged equipment is delivered to repair plants, it gets completely dismantled, while spare parts and units are sold or exchanged for alcohol. In some cases, only charred bodies of BMPs and tanks make it to repair factories.
Charred bodies...yikes!  I'd need alcohol for that, too.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 03, 2022, 03:24:00 PM
Russian amphibious assault ship sunk by mine in Black Sea (https://m-glavcom-ua.translate.goog/news/rosiyske-sudno-akula-zatonulo-poblizu-mariupolya-857776.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

QuoteThree sailors are already singing songs for fish together with Kobzon
I don't know what this is supposed to mean exactly, but I'm sure it's savage in the orginal Ukrainian.

And Shark seem like an appropriate name for such a vessel - now permanently beneath the waves.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 04, 2022, 12:51:19 AM
Russia sent a shipment of stolen Ukrainian grain to Turkey - which then seized it. (https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-ambassador-turkey-says-russian-ship-carrying-ukrainian-grain-detained-2022-07-03/)

My brother and I talked about what we would do in that situation.  I would seize the ship and send its grain to the most famine-stricken parts of the world.  For free, of course.  I would publicly thank Russia for its generous donation in helping to alleviate this terrible humanitarian crisis and would ask for more if they are willing and able to help those truly in need.

What's Russia going to do about it?  Any complaint would destroy its own propaganda.  Any retaliatory act would prove their true intentions...and trigger a NATO response.

And if they go along with it, they effectively undo their own efforts in creating this hunger crisis. And whatever ports the rest of the stolen grain goes to could possibly be similarly seized, so Russia's plan is now riddled with uncertainty.  It's lose-lose for them.

Russia has never been more vulnerable than it is now.  It expects deference and obedience and respect that it has not earned and likely will never earn.  Don't obey.  Frustrate their efforts as much as possible.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 05, 2022, 08:22:29 AM
Russian officers allegedly selling troop locations (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russians-fear-commanders-are-selling-their-own-troops-locations-for-cash?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4)

Wild allegation, but then, lots of wild things have been going on there - officers abandoning troops, troops deserting, all sorts of corruption, abandoning the wounded, sabotaging equipment to sell as scrap (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-sabotage-their-own-missile-system-to-sell-as-scrap-metal-says-ukrainian-intel), trying to fake a marriage to get out of the war (https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-catches-russian-troops-plotting-fake-marriages-to-ditch-war-in-intercepted-calls), self-injury, etc.

Nothing surprises me at this point.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 05, 2022, 08:26:51 AM
Ukrainian forces HIMARS strike on invader base in Melitopol results in 150 invaders killed and 300 more wounded (https://uanews-zp-ua.translate.goog/other/2022/07/05/230996.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_sch=http)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 05, 2022, 02:37:18 PM
Prisons and corporations across Russia are recruiting "volunteers" to fight in Ukraine (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/05/russian-prisons-corporations-recruit-ukraine-volunteers-reports-a78206)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 05, 2022, 02:44:18 PM
Invaders preparing to assault Bakhmut and Siversk  (https://en.socportal.info/en/news/russian-troops-are-preparing-an-attack-on-bakhmut-and-siversk/)

However, they're unlikely to succeed because of heavy losses from Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.

They're also taking a lot of losses from HIMARS fire.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 05, 2022, 03:15:52 PM
Are you liking it, Comrade?  Russia's knockoff McDonald's has mold, bugs (https://www.newsweek.com/mcdonalds-russia-vkusno-mold-bugs-burger-1721715) (so not much difference)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 05, 2022, 11:04:47 PM
Another Russian exec found dead (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-gazprom-executive-dead-gas-energy-b2116135.html), shot to death in his swimmimg pool.  That's five so far.  Gazprom execs have really been dropping like flies lately.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on July 06, 2022, 10:07:20 AM
Does the "state" glom their assets when they are dead?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 06, 2022, 11:14:05 AM
Quote from: Dark Lightning on July 06, 2022, 10:07:20 AMDoes the "state" glom their assets when they are dead?
Afaik, no.  They don't have an inheritance tax.  Unless otherwise specified in their will, the money goes to the spouse, children, parents, more distant relations, etc.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 06, 2022, 11:46:39 AM
Russia brings its disgusting imperialism to space, cosmonauts wave "redesigned" Luhansk/Donetsk flag at ISS (https://www.space.com/russia-cosmonauts-ukraine-luhansk-propaganda)

This is like German astronomers waving the Vichy France flag.  They're not "separatists", they're conquered, and the flag - desgned by their invaders and current overlords - is a symbol of that.

Good thing that Russia has been booted from future joint space exploration.  Any nation that can't explore space in peace must be left behind on the ground.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 06, 2022, 12:10:30 PM
Ukraine shoots down 6 out of 7 missiles fired at it from Black Sea, destroys two more invader ammo depots, two invader "platoon strongholds" (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3522822-ukraine-forces-down-nine-russian-missiles-two-ammo-depots-invaders-strongholds.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 06, 2022, 12:29:12 PM
Significant portion of Russian lead factories shut down (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3523019-russias-largest-secondary-lead-producer-suspends-operations.html)

Domestic demand for lead is extremely low, so they need to export it to make money.  But the gov didn't issue export licenses because they're afraid of a potential domestic wartime shortage if they do. So now they're shut down because of a lack of export partners, thus creating the production shortage that officials feared would happen in the first place!

Basically, it's a clusterputin of indecision and poor management creating a completely preventable snafu - Z-Russia to a tee.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on July 06, 2022, 01:53:26 PM
Interesting video of Russians destroying captured Ukrainian equipment.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1544682639646392321 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1544682639646392321)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 06, 2022, 02:17:21 PM
That was from very early in the war.  Despite the ensuing shower of flaming debris, afaik no russian soldiers were killed or injured.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 06, 2022, 03:07:08 PM
Russia planned to raze Mariupol from the start (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-planned-in-advance-to-destroy-mariupol-says-mayor-boychenko-50254577.html)

Even if Mariupol had surrendered without a shot fired, it would still be burned to the ground.

Bear this in mind every time Russia talks of wanting peace or humanitarian motivations.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 07, 2022, 06:16:11 AM
a top Russian official has warned the U.S. against punishing Russia's actions in Ukraine, saying it risks incurring the wrath of God if it does so (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html)

Oh no, a totally credible threat.  Better do as they say and reverse those sanctions pronto!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 07, 2022, 09:35:51 AM
In unrelated news, Russia couldn't hold onto Snake Island, a small but strategically and symbolically significant island and the Ukrainian flag flies there once more!

(https://i.redd.it/6vsh735fa3a91.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 07, 2022, 12:08:08 PM
Ukrainian forces blew up 16 invader ammo depots and/or bases over the last week (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3523681-ukrainian-army-eliminated-16-enemy-bases-ammunition-warehouses-in-past-week.html)

Invaders stop advancing, initiate "operational pause" (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3523570-invaders-initiated-operational-pause-in-war-with-ukraine-isw.html)

QuoteFor the first time since the beginning of the war, Russia has not claimed territorial gains in Ukraine.
They paid dearly for minimal gains on Donbas, even losing ground near Kharkiv,  [redacted], and of course Snake Island.

HIMARS have definitely made an impact, and invader forces continue to suffer serious logistics and morale difficulties.

They'll likely take some time to regroup and work out a new strategy.  Though I have to wonder what a spent force can realistically accomplish.  It's not like you can spend those lives twice, despite dictactor Putin's fervent wish to do so.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 07, 2022, 12:18:12 PM
When the going gets tough:  Invaders abandon their warehouses in occupied areas for fear of HIMARS attacks (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1544978989890011138?s=20&t=5o1M2loiJF2B--XDAxvlJg)

If possible, Ukraine should broadcast footage of this *heh* "heroism" to the entire world before asking for more HIMARS.  Yakety Sax music would be appropriate, I think.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 07, 2022, 12:26:22 PM
It's no wonder that invader forces need time to regroup, this is what they're working with:

(https://i.redd.it/kxcu4szv7y991.jpg)

I've seen pigs being transported with more care and protection.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on July 07, 2022, 04:07:33 PM
Pigs are usefull.
Pigs are valuable.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on July 08, 2022, 01:13:42 AM
Pig are valued.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Sorginak on July 08, 2022, 02:00:06 AM
Quote from: the_antithesis on July 08, 2022, 01:13:42 AMPig are valued.

As bacon. ;)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on July 08, 2022, 03:32:02 AM
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on July 07, 2022, 04:07:33 PMPigs are usefull.
Pigs are valuable.

Pigs are intelligent.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: drunkenshoe on July 08, 2022, 04:05:41 AM
Belarus Threatens to Attack Poland in Case of "Provocations by the West"

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/7/7142774/

Enough Is Enough. Time for Ukraine to Cut Ties with Belarus

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/07/5/7142602/

"European Pravda is a Ukrainian online media outlet dedicated to Europe, NATO and reforms in Ukraine. "EP" website was launched in early June 2014. ..."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 08, 2022, 06:33:36 PM
I'd love to see them try.

Poland active personnel: 120,000 (NATO equipment)

Belarus active personnel: 62,000 (Aging soviet-era equipment)

95% of Belarus doesn't want hostilities with Ukraine, let alone Poland.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 09, 2022, 09:20:03 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXM2mAGWYAAnTZT?format=jpg&name=large)

During the "operational pause" (lack of a major advance due to lack of manpower), Russia has resorted to amassing "reserve forces" in antiqued, poorly-armored MT-LBs (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MT-LB).  If you thought the T-62s were insufficient, just wait till you get a load of these.

These things were first made in '50s. And while both sides have used them in this conflict, until now, they've always been used in support roles and kept away from the front lines.  Now we're going to see why.

This has got to be the most stereotypically Russian "solution" to the stalled invasion possible: just throw more men at 'em and as poorly provisioned as possible.  Pretty much guaranteed extremely heavy losses with little/no payoff.  No wonder they're using convicts.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 09, 2022, 09:33:34 AM
US says invader bridge is fair game (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-official-says-russias-prized-kerch-bridge-fair-target-for-ukrainian-forces)

So don't be shy, let 'er rip!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 09, 2022, 09:58:58 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXImnT4XEAEeEUn?format=jpg&name=large)

21 invader ammo depots blown up so far
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 09, 2022, 10:36:31 AM
Desperation move:  Russia fires modified surface-to-air missiles against ground targets (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-300-surface-to-air-missiles-at-land-targets-in-ukraine-official) (so essentially, surface-to-surface)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on July 09, 2022, 04:27:59 PM
I do wonder how much satellite intelligence about Russian troop placements is being provided by the US/West?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 09, 2022, 09:53:58 PM
Quote from: Cassia on July 09, 2022, 04:27:59 PMI do wonder how much satellite intelligence about Russian troop placements is being provided by the US/West?
A LOT (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-09/card/ukraine-to-get-access-to-commercial-spy-satellite-imagery-bG7A3JxTwitEGB80MXsd).  Reconnaissance with spy planes, spy drones, and my personal favorite, spy satellites.  As well as...clandestine means...

US intel isn't perfect by a long shot, but it is amazing at tracking tanks and artillery/missile trajectories.  Russian missile launches and convoy movements are especially noticeable.  Russians hide their APCs in bushes or behind buildings like it matters at all lol.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 10, 2022, 01:15:40 AM
Ammo depot cooking off in Luhansk (https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1545944176021454849)

Shows the true scale of the destruction wrought by HIMARS

Russia has lot less shells to hurl at civilians.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 10, 2022, 01:26:57 AM
Russian tank offensive thwarted, Russia losses entire tank company (9 tanks) (https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/large_russian_tank_offensive_thwarted_entire_tank_company_got_entrapped_and_eliminated_video-3519.html)

In the footage, a z-tank drives to where 4 other z-tanks are destroyed (nothing suspicious there at all) and runs right over an anti-tank mine right next to a destroyed tank.  Man, what are the odds???

The free world is so lucky that these guys do a lot of moronic stuff to hurt their own war effort.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 10, 2022, 10:03:41 AM
Speaking of moronic, another red on red incident

A DPR battallion was effectively wiped out after Russian forces mistakenly identified it as an enemy and open fire. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3525909-dpr-battalion-destroyed-in-russian-friendly-fire.html)

In the near future, DPR/LDP might want to rethink their alliances.  Because Ukrainian forces are going to be bringing a world of hurt in their direction and they can either bury the Russians or be buried with them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 10, 2022, 10:13:11 AM
Ukraine launched 11 new HIMARS strikes overnight. (https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1546049511101005824?t=o6lQMSt-mbr8rkbuV1-kRw&s=19)  Lots of strategic targets going up in flames.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 10, 2022, 10:22:09 AM
After the Bucha massacre, a Russian invader proudly announced that they should commit even more crimes against humanity (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1545896619484348416?s=21&t=vNJRNueKWqb-CWK5Difwxg).  (Reason #1001567 why I regard invader soldiers as little different from their master)  He was recently killed in action.  So sad.

They say that only the good die young.  I say that this is not necessarily true.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 10, 2022, 05:16:45 PM
(https://i.redd.it/a52db8yrpqa91.png)

Z-Zombie letting us know that Allied aid to Ukraine is having an impact.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 10, 2022, 05:41:41 PM
"Two precision missile strikes on Kherson City since this morning (https://mobile.twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1546100276372934660?t=ANjZ-dkpFC8Mi_VTFPErlg&s=09). Russian National Guard barracks hit.  Locals report of Russians screaming from under the rubble."

🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 07:43:03 AM
Lithuania expands sanctioned item list, now includes alcohol (https://www.rferl.org/a/lithuania-restrictions-russia-kaliningrad/31937896.html)

Kallingrad can still get their booze delivered by port, it just might take longer and be more expensive.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 07:50:27 AM
Ukrainian army destroys mobile command post in Kherson region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3526464-ukraine-army-destroys-russias-mobile-command-post-in-tavriisk.html)

Also destroyed radar and air defense systems
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 08:04:56 AM
Ukraine defense minister predicts Russian federation/empire collapse (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/10/7357413/)

After 2 years or so of sending its youth into a meat grinder, so don't expect Putin to be gone next Tuesday.

But when he is gone, Russia will have a much more difficult time keeping its dissidents in check and quite a few regions very unhappy with the regime.  Things could escalate...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on July 11, 2022, 08:15:09 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 08:04:56 AMUkraine defense minister predicts Russian federation/empire collapse (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/10/7357413/)
I hope he's right because Russia is bullshit.  Potentially, they have a lot to offer, but they only offer bullshit.  And at that, bullshit is an understatement.  The world would be better off without Russia.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 09:16:16 AM
Ukraine amassing a million-strong army to liberate the south (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62118953)

I'm on pins and needles for them to liberate Kherson city, but they can't just go rushing in.  That's a Russian tactic.  They have to play it smart and choose their battles carefully to minimize casualties and ensure sustainable victories.  And unfortunately, that'll take a while.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 11:54:20 AM
Kherson airport hit again (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1546475062739570688?s=20&t=4FpFJQHyCzbV9YhW6M8njw)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 10:29:14 PM
Axis of Evil: Iran prepares to supply Russia with drones (https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/politics/iran-russia-weapons-capable-drones/index.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 08:54:32 AM
Another one bites the dust: Russian general killed in Ukraine (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-himars-kherson-himars-major-general-artem-nasbulin-1723690)

That's 16 total, iirc.  (confirmed and unconfirmed)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 09:11:15 AM
He's not alone: apparently a slew of orc officers were killed (https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546564286771773441?s=20&t=ifEQCMB405t5Vqe3CQyhIQ) in Kherson region from a HIMARS strike.

🌻 🌻 🌻
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 09:18:40 AM
There was also graphic footage of an invader crushed to death by the turret of his own tank. 

Grisly stuff, but if that's not symbolic of the whole "special operation", I dunno what is.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 02:29:06 PM
Over 100 Russian soldiers choose to live, give up the war (https://www.newsweek.com/over-100-russian-servicemen-quit-refuse-fight-ukraine-war-buryatia-1723822)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 03:53:18 PM
Dictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on July 12, 2022, 06:49:34 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 03:53:18 PMDictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 03:53:18 PMDictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)
Remember when Bush saw Putin's soul?
"I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 07:26:43 PM
Dubya might not be the best judge of character, lol

That dude was in bed with more neocons than an Epstein-procured preteen.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on July 12, 2022, 10:51:43 PM
Quote from: Cassia on July 12, 2022, 06:49:34 PMRemember when Bush saw Putin's soul?
"I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country

One of our resident war criminals.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 11:21:55 PM
Quote from: Mike Cl on July 12, 2022, 10:51:43 PMOne of our resident war criminals.
Hey! His dad said he wasn't a war criminal and you can count on family to be completely impartial in such circumstances.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on July 12, 2022, 11:55:14 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 11:21:55 PMHey! His dad said he wasn't a war criminal and you can count on family to be completely impartial in such circumstances.
Yeah.  I forgot about that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 13, 2022, 03:58:58 AM
Ukrainian forces blow up another ammo depot near Kherson (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3527476-ukraines-armed-forces-destroy-another-russian-ammo-depot-in-kherson-region.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on July 13, 2022, 07:44:29 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 03:53:18 PMDictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)
Actually, I think ruler fits him better.  But it's odd that part of the problem is that it is still kind of a new word in Russia so the people are not comfortable with the term. "President" has been around for 200 years (that I know of), and is widely used around the world.  Not that it makes much difference.  A jerk by any other name is still a jerk.

I always thought calling those old world dictators "President" was a way to obscure the fact that they were harsh rulers.  In fact, I never thought some of them deserved the title.  To me this Russian thing sounds like an attempt to make it clearer to the Russian people that they are the property of Putin, and it's time for them to stop complaining about their lot in life.  Especially now, since McDonald's has pulled out leaving them nothing to eat, except what Putin gives them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 13, 2022, 08:20:09 AM
Quote from: SGOS on July 13, 2022, 07:44:29 AMI always thought calling those old world dictators "President" was a way to obscure the fact that they were harsh rulers.
It absolutely is.  But after a while, people catch on that the "President" keeps giving himself extra terms and eventually, the illusion falls apart.  China dropped the charade and now Russia is doing the same.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 13, 2022, 08:29:36 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 10:29:14 PMAxis of Evil: Iran prepares to supply Russia with drones (https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/politics/iran-russia-weapons-capable-drones/index.html)
Update: Iran refuses (https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/news/iran_ofitsijno_vidmoviv_kremlju_u_prodazhi_bpla_nastupnij_krok_poprositi_raketi_u_kndr-8137.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

Imagine being so desperate for drones that you turn to a country whose military history is best described as human-wave attacks and whose people have been under international sanctions for decades.  And they refuse to help you.

Putin is twisting in the wind right now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 13, 2022, 11:45:05 AM
(https://i.redd.it/y5xila3skab91.jpg)

On the left is attacks on Ukraine on July 8th.

On the right is attacks on Ukraine on July 12th.

A lot less activity due to HIMARS
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on July 13, 2022, 12:41:22 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 03:53:18 PMDictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/Two_inch_ruler.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 13, 2022, 01:12:24 PM
Russian soldiers more frequently drunk and insubordinate (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-soldiers-increasingly-more-drunk-and-insubordinate-russia-news-ukraine-news-50256121.html)

QuoteAlcohol abuse and desertion are rampant in Russian forces, according to the message.

Enemy soldiers also tend to complain about being ordered into futile and ineffective attack on Ukrainian defenses.
The way this is phrased, you'd think a Russian colonel was marching on Kyiv and watching his troops get blown to bits all while calling them whiners.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 13, 2022, 01:38:03 PM
Ukraine has recently received a second batch of Krab howitzers from Poland (they already have 18) as well as American M777A2 howitzers (the A2 variant can fire extended-range Excalibur guided shells, so it can fire farther and more accurately to be more likely to kill orcs with less risk to civilians)

More HIMARS are coming, too.

Russian forces are going to wish they never set foot in Ukraine very soon.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 13, 2022, 06:25:35 PM
Pro-Putin propagandist likely got Russian ammo depot blown up by filming it (https://most-ks-ua.translate.goog/news/url/zsu_znischili_vorozhij_sklad_bojepripasiv_v_novij_kahovtsi_jmovirno_zavdjaki_blogeru_z_dnr?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 14, 2022, 04:13:33 AM
Another wave of Russian civilians emigrate from Putin's Russia (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/russians-flee-putins-regime-after-ukraine-war-in-second-wave-of-migration.html)

Exact numbers are currently unknown, but at least 100,000.

This exacerbates the -7% population growth rate and causes yet more brain drain.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 14, 2022, 04:26:02 AM
"Destroyed HIMARS" in fact just Oshkosh military truck.

Claimed HIMARS:(https://i.redd.it/driyqu9k8eb91.jpg)

Legit HIMARS:
(https://interfax.com.ua/media/thumbs/images/2022/05/aKgwnG6wiVn5.jpg)

Fun fact: none of the donated HIMARS are tan.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 14, 2022, 11:37:30 AM
Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and UN reps agree to establish a coordination center in Istanbul for grain transport (http://establishacoordinationcenterinistanbulforthegraintransport)

Presumably, this will allow Ukraine to more safely and quickly export grain (the remaining grain that hasn't been stolen, occupied, or fire-bombed)

Though I note that Russia has a rather extensive history of breaking agreements, notably the Russian–Ukrainian Friendship Treaty, which prohibited either country from declaring war on or invading the other.  I think we can safely conclude that this treaty was not fully honored.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 14, 2022, 11:46:26 AM
Putin expands Russian passports to all of Ukraine, not just occupied regions of Ukraine (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-weaponizes-russian-passports-in-his-imperial-war-to-eliminate-ukraine/)

So anyone who thinks Putin will be content with Donbas and Crimea, think again.  He wants nothing less than the complete conquest of Ukraine and  elimination of Ukrainian statehood.  And that's likely a prelude for much more extensive territorial ambitions.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 14, 2022, 12:04:09 PM
Russian lawmakers propose expanding anti-gay law (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/11/russia-proposes-extending-gay-propaganda-law-to-all-adults)

QuoteAuthorities say they are defending morality in the face of what they argue are un-Russian liberal values promoted by the West.
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/034/652/agree.jpg)

So you agree, Russian "values" are illiberal?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 15, 2022, 08:58:43 AM
Forty-five nations pledge to coordinate evidence of war crimes in Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/west-seeks-coordinate-evidence-war-crimes-ukraine-2022-07-14/)

Yesterday, Ukrainians bombed Russian ammo dumps while Russia bombed civilians.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 15, 2022, 01:38:00 PM
Ukrainian forces destroy Invader HQ and barracks in Kherson (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3529535-ukrainian-forces-destroy-russian-headquarters-barracks-in-kherson-region.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 15, 2022, 01:40:47 PM
In the East, Ukrainian paratroopers destroy 9 tanks, 7 armored vehicles, and about 70 invaders (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3529526-ukrainian-paratroopers-destroy-nine-russian-tanks-seven-armored-vehicles-about-70-invaders.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on July 15, 2022, 05:24:36 PM
The Russian army is making it all about inaccurate Soviet era artillery and simply pounding away at whatever they can hit. Thousands of pieces. Just awful what they are doing.

Seems to me it will come down to the Ukrainians getting enough modern big guns and rockets from NATO to outrange them and keep hitting Russian ammo supplies. Russian gun barrels will begin to wear out.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 16, 2022, 01:50:32 AM
Quote from: Cassia on July 15, 2022, 05:24:36 PMThe Russian army is making it all about inaccurate Soviet era artillery and simply pounding away at whatever they can hit. Thousands of pieces. Just awful what they are doing.
70% of Russian artillery strikes are against non-military targets (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3529899-nearly-70-of-russian-missile-strikes-hit-peaceful-targets-ukraines-defense-ministry.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 16, 2022, 01:52:11 AM
Russian jets try to bomb Snake Island, fail (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-jets-miss-snake-island-air-forces-failing-ukraine-battle-uk-1724978)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 16, 2022, 08:34:11 AM
In Baltic news:

Estonia seeks to prohibit Russians/Belarusians from owning firearms (https://news.err.ee/1608658276/russian-belarusian-citizens-will-not-be-allowed-to-own-firearms-in-estonia)

Latvia wants to bring back the draft (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-neighbor-latvia-wants-to-bring-back-the-military-draft-because-it-fears-russia-will-attack-so-quickly-that-nato-can-t-help-defense-minister-says/ar-AAZDBgs?ocid=EMMX&cvid=8594ef39c91a4276b4d148218d000b19)

US approves HIMARS sale to Estonia, air-to-air missiles to Norway (https://www.defensedaily.com/u-s-approves-500-million-himars-sale-with-estonia-950-million-amraam-missile-deal-with-norway/international/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 16, 2022, 09:07:45 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXwxosLVUAEM1Qq?format=jpg&name=medium)

It would be a real shame if they fail to make any progress at all towards areas they prematurely said that they control.  That would make it crystal clear that they're lying.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 17, 2022, 09:44:59 AM
Today, 8 years ago, a Russian anti-air system in Ukraine shot down a Dutch civilian airliner, killing everyone on board

https://v.redd.it/eiombmipa3c91
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 17, 2022, 02:08:52 PM
Ammo depot near Kherson blown up. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3530897-ukrainian-forces-destroy-enemys-ammunition-depot-in-kherson-region.html)  Again.

Quotethe Russians set up an ammunition depot, headquarters, and barracks. Tonight, all this vanished, because the Ukrainian Armed Forces hit the target accurately," he wrote.

Locals say that "it burned very well and detonated for a long time," Khlan said.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on July 17, 2022, 03:20:19 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 17, 2022, 02:08:52 PMAmmo depot near Kherson blown up. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3530897-ukrainian-forces-destroy-enemys-ammunition-depot-in-kherson-region.html)  Again.


Now, it's an ammo "dump".
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 17, 2022, 03:34:04 PM

"Commander is a vegetable"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 17, 2022, 03:46:43 PM
Short-fingered vulgarian: Putin threatens to sue Swiss newspaper for portraying him as a clown (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-threatens-legal-action-newspaper-image-putin-clown-2022-7?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds)

(https://preview.redd.it/bgb4areyyzb91.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=9c21b4c9041809ebc26d0afd227cfc06ca896348)

QuoteIt took special offense at the rainbow colors on Putin's face, citing his hostility to LGBTQ people.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on July 18, 2022, 12:27:29 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 17, 2022, 03:46:43 PMShort-fingered vulgarian: Putin threatens to sue Swiss newspaper for portraying him as a clown (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-threatens-legal-action-newspaper-image-putin-clown-2022-7?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds)

(https://preview.redd.it/bgb4areyyzb91.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=9c21b4c9041809ebc26d0afd227cfc06ca896348)

Hey, that meme was shared just to piss him off; it finally happened.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 18, 2022, 10:51:08 AM
Red on red: Russia allegedly shot down its own bomber (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoots-su-34-bomber-luhansk-ukraine-claims-1725524)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 18, 2022, 10:55:11 AM
Ukrainian aircraft conduct two airtrikes against Russian stronghold in Kherson region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/18/7358670/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 18, 2022, 11:01:53 AM
Due to heavy casualties, Russian mercenary group Wagner lowers standards (https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-putin-private-army-recruiting-standards-losses-1725456)

Quote"Wagner are lowering recruitment standards, hiring convicts and formerly blacklisted individuals. Very limited training is made available to new recruits," it said, adding that this will highly likely impact on the future operational effectiveness of the group.
To paraphrase their leader: they'll take anyone whose heart is in the alt-right place.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 18, 2022, 02:29:12 PM
(https://i.redd.it/xnrn4gbg9bc91.jpg)

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/031/425/Screen_Shot_2019-10-09_at_10.41.04_AM.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on July 18, 2022, 06:28:49 PM
The cynic in me assumes that, being a CEO it had far more to do with ruzzia is strapped for cash and she didn't want daddy Putin taking her "hard earned money" so she bailed while she could still do so.

But either way, it's hopefully less money for the orcs.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 18, 2022, 08:56:36 PM
Some Russian commaders brought with them Soviet-era maps of Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3531636-some-russian-commanders-used-lastcentury-maps-when-invading-ukraine-sbu.html), one as far back as 1969.

Suffice it to say that the cities and roads have changed quite a lot over the past 53 years.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 18, 2022, 09:59:12 PM
Due to HIMARS threat, Russian logistics becoming even more complicated (https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548684752135364608)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 18, 2022, 11:58:48 PM

"Spetsnaz is just a word"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 20, 2022, 08:59:46 AM
Russian troops jump out of trucks headed to Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3532435-russian-troops-jump-out-of-trucks-only-to-dodge-ukraine-deployment-intercept.html), according to intercepted call
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 20, 2022, 09:25:31 AM
Ukrainan forces destroy a top-tier radar system designed to detect aircraft in Kherson region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/20/7359124/), further weakening their air defense in the area.  They were tipped off by partisan forces.

Ukrainan forces also destroyed an electronic warfare system near a Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3532722-ukrainian-forces-destroy-enemy-electronic-warfare-system-near-kakhovka-hpp.html) (also in Kherson region).  This system is intended to suppress drones.

And finally, Ukraine hit several more command posts, control stations, logistic support bases in the area (https://nitter.net/VigilantinfoN/status/1549639990149259266)

All this definitely paints a picture of a reduction in enemy surveillance, c&c, and air defense prior to a major counter-offensive.  We'll see.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 20, 2022, 12:21:11 PM
Red on red: Russia shoots down own plane. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/07/20/they-did-it-again-russia-shoots-down-another-of-its-own-jets--are-american-rockets-confusing-them/?sh=19973f234a5a)  Again.  $85 million loss.

They certainly have a habit of repeating mistakes, not that the Ukrainians are complaining.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on July 20, 2022, 07:31:53 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 18, 2022, 11:58:48 PM

"Spetsnaz is just a word"

'We have one usable tank, and our depots have been destroyed.'

Ouch!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on July 20, 2022, 07:36:57 PM
Spetsnaz is just a word.  But when I was in Army Intel., they were considered to be THE special force in the world.  We were taught that one of the main targets was to be inserted into the battlefield behind the enemy (us) headquarters and to capture the top officers and especially the intel personnel.  That was me--not really happy about that prospect. :))
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 20, 2022, 08:48:55 PM
Well, the good news is that they're much less of a threat than they were in the Cold War and they've been doing some... how you say... downsizing this year.

Come to think of it, the truly fearsome chunk of the old Soviet bloc is none other than Ukraine, and they're on much better terms with the West now than ever.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on July 20, 2022, 09:15:22 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 20, 2022, 08:48:55 PMWell, the good news is that they're must less of a threat than they were in the Cold War and they've been doing some... how you say... downsizing this year.

Come to think of it, the truly fearsome chunk of the old Soviet bloc is none other than Ukraine, and they're on much better terms with the West now than ever.
Yeah, Ukraine was the USSR's industrial powerhouse. Prolly never thought they would be blowing up stuff they made back then.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on July 20, 2022, 09:29:23 PM
Quote from: Cassia on July 20, 2022, 09:15:22 PMYeah, Ukraine was the USSR's industrial powerhouse. Prolly never thought they would be blowing up stuff they made back then.
Also one of the Soviet Union's sports powerhouse, along with Georgia making the Soviet Union one of the topped ranked football leagues in the world for awhile.

Dynamo Kyiv won more Soviet Top League Championships (13) than any team from Moskva (12), and was cheated out of quite a few more when the Soviets would occasionally kill their players or kidnap them and force to play in ruzzia, meanwhile FC Dinamo Tbilisi was able to win a European Championship backi n the day as well.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on July 20, 2022, 11:26:42 PM
One can only hope this leaves a stain on the Vlaster. 

Interstate commerce would have worked fine, but you chose butchery.  For shame.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 21, 2022, 10:42:19 AM
Ukrainian forces blow up more strongholds and ammo dumps along the southern front (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3533564-ukraine-delivers-10-strikes-at-enemy-strongholds-ammo-depots-in-southern-regions.html)

QuoteMeanwhile, our forces carried out ten airstrikes targeting the enemy: Three of them were helicopter strikes and seven - with the use of bombers and attack aircraft. Enemy strongholds were hit five times, clusters of manpower and equipment in Kherson region – three times, and ammunition depots in Mykolaiv region and Kherson region were hit twice," the Ukrainian military said.
Russian forces can't stand much more of this punishing attrition, especially in southern Ukraine.  They put most of their forces in the east and sacrificed them in a couple phyrric victories.  Now, they're mostly spent and can do little.  Vehicles, artillery, ammo, manpower are all becoming depleted with no chance of major replenishment.

If this continues, it won't be that long before Russian forces in the south degrade to the point of being combat ineffective.  From there, the only options are to retreat or die.

Either way, that territory will be returned.  Imo, it looks like the southern front will wrap up in a similar way as the northern front.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 21, 2022, 11:12:00 PM
Russia Boasts It Can 'Counteract' U.S. HIMARS After Suffering Heavy Losses (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-us-rocket-systems-himars-weapons-losses-1726753)

After suggesting that US forces are operating in Ukraine (lol no), Russia said that their air defense can shoot down HIMARS rockets. Okay, let's see it, then.

Quoteon Wednesday, Russia's air defense shot down 12 missiles over the Antonivka Road Bridge
QuoteTwelve rockets were fired, and 11 of them hit the bridge.
For someone who can totally shoot them down no problem, an awful lot are hitting.

Russian media also released a grainy image of an allegedly destroyed "m270 battalion".

(https://i.redd.it/jmm52pubqxc91.png)

It's grainy because it's from an early 90s video game, Command and Conquer.  They posted the unit model for a rocket launcher vehicle from a video game and thought people would think that was legit.

They might as well post footage from Quake and claim it was from a lone Russian comnando fighting Ukrainian supersoldiers.

I always knew they were liars, but their disinfo is so desperate and schoolyard-level that it's a wonder that they were ever considered a superpower at all.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on July 21, 2022, 11:58:36 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 21, 2022, 11:12:00 PMIt's grainy because it's from an early 90s video game, Command and Conquer.  They posted the unit model for a rocket launcher vehicle from a video game and thought people would think that was legit.

Is Tommy Tallarico running this?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on July 22, 2022, 09:24:15 PM
I'm to lazy to look up 'dork' in the dictionary, but Vlad, buddy, you're getting real close to whatever the definition is.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 22, 2022, 09:30:36 PM
(https://i.redd.it/v1tdjts3d6d91.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 22, 2022, 09:37:55 PM
Ukrainian forces destroy a Russian howitzer battallion (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3534534-ukraine-army-destroys-russias-howitzer-artillery-battalion-together-with-personnel.html) (8 batteries and their support vehicles, ammo, and personnel)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 22, 2022, 09:54:10 PM
Russian servicemen who show their humanity and refuse to participate in the invasion are allegedly threatened with being sent to a concentration camp in "L/DNR" (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3534731-russian-soldiers-threatened-with-concentration-camp-in-ldnr-for-refusing-to-fight.html)

QuoteThe occupier tells his wife about threats to send everyone who refuses to further participate in the 'special operation' to a concentration camp in the 'L/DNR'.
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/028/165/ccvzrbwha9tx.jpg)

QuoteHe says that many Russian servicemen walk around drunk, do nothing, only make hooch," the report reads.
Is this... different from normal?  I suppose crimes against humanity is the missing activity.

QuoteAccording to the invader, anarchy and corruption flourish in Russian units.

He also said that in his unit, nine servicemen were wounded and the commander was killed as a result of the UAV attack.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 23, 2022, 09:04:01 AM
Ukraine has retaken about half the territory Russia has seized this year (https://medium.com/@mountainfactor/ukraine-has-managed-to-retake-half-of-the-territories-occupied-by-russia-c7f0ebebfa5a)

(https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*2NEUybONuHQlxiGc-dvpuw.jpeg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Sorginak on July 23, 2022, 09:15:36 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOP5AQXXEAUduJA.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 23, 2022, 10:40:02 AM
While Ukraine has been blowing up invader ammo depots, Putin has been blowing up fish (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3534944-russians-fire-about-20-rockets-from-grad-systems-at-zaporizhzhia.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 23, 2022, 03:44:07 PM
Russia asks for "green corridor" to evacuate encircled troops north of Kherson (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/23/2111993/-Ukraine-update-Russia-asks-for-green-corridor-to-evacuate-encircled-troops-north-of-Kherson)

QuoteFor all intents, the encirclement is effective. This is clear, because Russia has had the audacity to ask for a "green corridor" for surrounded troops. The same kind of corridor it refused to open so many times for trapped civilians. The same kind of corridor Russia has offered, then used as a convenient means of attack.
Ukraine refused, btw.  No, safe passage to set up somewhere else and bomb babies.  Of course, they can always surrender and live through this conflict in relative luxury and safety.  Hell, if they behave themselves, they might even leave with a free toilet for the missus.  Every conscript's dream.  But no, no other deals.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on July 23, 2022, 03:53:25 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 23, 2022, 03:44:07 PMRussia asks for "green corridor" to evacuate encircled troops north of Kherson (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/23/2111993/-Ukraine-update-Russia-asks-for-green-corridor-to-evacuate-encircled-troops-north-of-Kherson)
Ukraine refused, btw.  No, safe passage to set up somewhere else and bomb babies.  Of course, they can always surrender and live through this conflict in relative luxury and safety.  Hell, if they behave themselves, they might even leave with a free toilet for the missus.  Every conscript's dream.  But no, no other deals.

"Wait, wait, time out!" Fuck them and the dump truck they rode in on.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 23, 2022, 04:42:26 PM
Especially when one considers their other "green corridor" agreements (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilovaisk).

Hell, they just bombed Odessa (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/23/russian-strike-odessa-port-ukraine-grain/) after signing a green corridor for wheat exports.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 24, 2022, 08:55:26 AM
Blockbuster night: Ukrainian drone hits Russians during movie night (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/24/7359891/) on top of their tank

They could've surrendered and watched all the movies they wanted in peace.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 24, 2022, 11:23:48 AM
The Russian military is so depleted that they take 3 undermanned battalions to form one full-strength battalion (https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-few-troops-left-one-134417841.html)

A full-strength battalion is around 600-800 troops, so that's like 200-300 left in those undermanned battalions. 

And of course, losing around 2/3 of your troops represents serious losses.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 24, 2022, 02:03:35 PM
Good news for Russian forces. 

They've learned to successfully intercept HIMARS strikes with their S-300 anti-air systems.

Specifically, it was struck and destroyed by a HIMARS strike (https://mobile.twitter.com/factsdocs/status/1551215095669219331).  :P

This particular system had allegedly been jury-rigged to fire on ground targets, like hospitals and kindergartens.  Good riddance.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 25, 2022, 12:11:09 AM
Ukraine strikes bridges near Kherson, isolating it from reinforcements (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_on_the_way_to_complete_russian_army_isolation_near_kherson_all_bridges_are_struck-3664.html)

In general, there appears to be a lot of recent activity along the southern front. 

(https://i.redd.it/v0c6blht6kd91.png)

While it's still too early to know for sure, it appears that Ukraine is gearing up for a major counterattack with the aim of liberating Kherson.

Ukrainian officials are on record saying it'll be liberated in September  (https://www.barrons.com/news/ukraine-s-kherson-region-to-be-liberated-from-russia-by-september-official-01658666407?tesla=y)or earlier.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 25, 2022, 01:14:08 AM
Russian SPG ruptured while firing (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russian_2s7m_malka_self_propelled_gun_self_destructed_while_firing_at_positions_of_ukrainian_soldiers_photo-3667.html)

This corroborates with Russians complaining about their inaccurate artillery fire and Ukrainian forces finding noticeably off-center bore on a captured artillery piece:

(https://i.postimg.cc/7qrJZc3m/Have-A-Look-At-This-Barrel-From-A-Russian-BMP-Picture-By-Ukrainians.jpg)

Perun talked about this, and I'll try to sum up as best I can.  Bear in mind that I'm no expert, I'm simply a guy fascinated by this stuff and trying to relay what experts have said in a way that's understandable to everyone.

Artillery can become damaged from overuse - there are only so many shells it can fire before parts have to be repaired or replaced.  Obviously, Russia has opted not to repair or replace anything, so damage has accumulated and now some artillery barrels are starting to warp.  This warping makes artillery shots increasingly inaccurate, sometimes even causing a catastrophic failure like that poor SPG.

Because Russia has been firing something like three times as frequently as Ukraine (with notably less accuracy, even when the barrels were undamaged) this problem is affecting them first.  (Canada shipped some replacement artillery barrels to Ukraine for this exact reason (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/canada-send-c9-mln-replacement-barrels-howitzer-guns-ukraine-2022-06-15/))

This is amazing news for Ukraine because they've been fighting a series of artillery duels with Russian forces and well, if the other side literally can't hit the broad side of a barn, it's pretty easy to predict the winner of these duels.

Russia has two options: 1) Keep firing with much less effectiveness 2) withdraw damaged artillery and repair/replace.  Either option gives Ukraine a significant advantage.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: PopeyesPappy on July 25, 2022, 07:52:09 AM
Not saying the Russians don't have maintenance issues, but the barrel in the picture didn't get that way through damage or overuse. It was manufactured like that. Technically a non-concentric bore shouldn't really have much effect on accuracy, but I guess it could under heavy use if the metal heated unevenly causing warping.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on July 25, 2022, 09:59:05 AM
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on July 25, 2022, 07:52:09 AMNot saying the Russians don't have maintenance issues, but the barrel in the picture didn't get that way through damage or overuse. It was manufactured like that. Technically a non-concentric bore shouldn't really have much effect on accuracy, but I guess it could under heavy use if the metal heated unevenly causing warping.
Yep, by the third round I doubt they could even continue to hit that apartment building.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on July 25, 2022, 10:25:45 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 25, 2022, 01:14:08 AMRussian SPG ruptured while firing (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russian_2s7m_malka_self_propelled_gun_self_destructed_while_firing_at_positions_of_ukrainian_soldiers_photo-3667.html)

This corroborates with Russians complaining about their inaccurate artillery fire and Ukrainian forces finding noticeably off-center bore on a captured artillery piece:

(https://i.postimg.cc/7qrJZc3m/Have-A-Look-At-This-Barrel-From-A-Russian-BMP-Picture-By-Ukrainians.jpg)

Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 25, 2022, 06:29:44 PM
Ukrainian forces gain fire control over logistics routes in Kherson region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3536302-ukraine-army-gains-fire-control-over-russian-forces-logistics-routes-in-kherson-region.html)

I'm not quite sure what exactly that means, but I'm guessing it means they're positioned so that they can easily fire on anything coming in or out using the roads.

If so, that's a huge tactical advantage.  Russian logistics were already fraught before HIMARS and before they had Ukrainian forces breathing down their necks in the Kherson region.  If they keep up the pressure, there's no way invader forces can hold their position for long.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 25, 2022, 06:52:35 PM
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on July 25, 2022, 07:52:09 AMNot saying the Russians don't have maintenance issues, but the barrel in the picture didn't get that way through damage or overuse. It was manufactured like that. Technically a non-concentric bore shouldn't really have much effect on accuracy, but I guess it could under heavy use if the metal heated unevenly causing warping.
Correct.  I realized that a little too late after posting.

That one's not damaged, just manufactured in such a fugly way that it could be easily misinterpreted as defective.  Definitely a testament to Russian craftanship.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 26, 2022, 02:19:46 PM
Ukraine considers Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul to be Putin propagandists (https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-rand-paul-placed-list-russian-propagandists-ukraine-1727831)

In this conflict, there are those who stand for democracy and Ukraine and those who stand for dictatorship and Russia.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 26, 2022, 02:28:46 PM
Sanctions that bite (https://www.axios.com/2022/07/26/russia-sanctions-economic-impact)

Quotethe official Russian statistics are lies.
surprised_pikachu.jpg

QuoteRussian imports have largely collapsed," the paper says — creating massive supply shortages and denying the country crucial parts and technologies.

"Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill."

Foreign companies that have left Russia account for 40% of Russian GDP, the author wrote, almost none of which is going to come back any time soon.
I've heard the economic toll of sanctions described as roughly equivalent to the worst days of covid.

And despite Russia continuing to make comsiderable sums of money on oil and gas (for now), the service sector has really taken a beating.  Tourism is an obvious example.

QuoteRussia has announced further cuts in its supply of natural gas to Europe. But the paper makes the case that Russia needs Europe to buy its natural gas more than Europe needs Russian natural gas to buy.
I've been saying this for months!  Putin is cutting off his nose to spite his face
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 26, 2022, 02:41:14 PM
Russian morale continues to deteriorate, troops desert posts (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-troops-deserting-posts-kyiv-uses-us-weapons-1727916)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on July 26, 2022, 03:58:06 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 26, 2022, 02:19:46 PMUkraine considers Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul to be Putin propagandists (https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-rand-paul-placed-list-russian-propagandists-ukraine-1727831)

In this conflict, there are those who stand for democracy and Ukraine and those who stand for dictatorship and Russia.
The worst part is that... 20% of the time, they are so damn right on important issues that seriously need to be pointed out and no one else does... but then the other 80% is just complete nutjob bullshit that discredits everything else they say just by being associated with them.

Maybe that's the objective though - because if normal people are seen saying it then it suddenly is harder to dismiss.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 26, 2022, 08:34:17 PM
This is from March, so this isn't recent news, but it was quite a fascinating read nonetheless: Ukrainian farmers capture Russian troops (https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-farmers-captured-russian-squad-162600510.html) (including turncoats from 2014)

Essentially, the Ukrainian farmers/civilians knew the Russians were coming and gathered what few weapons they had and met the Russians in force.  The Russians saw that they were outnumbered 50 to 11 and eventually concluded that fighting would not have a favorable outcome.  So they surrendered.

What they didn't know was that most of the civilians were unarmed.  No backsies!

Quote"They were livid once they saw we were unarmed," Vanzhula recalled.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 27, 2022, 10:07:57 AM
Amid diplomatic spat with Russia, Israel to expand assistance to Ukraine (https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-diplomatic-spat-with-russia-israel-to-expand-assistance-to-ukraine/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 27, 2022, 10:29:07 AM
US accelerates military aid to Ukraine, including more HIMARS and precision ammo (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/us-accelerates-delivery-of-weapons-to-ukraine-pentagon/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 27, 2022, 10:36:20 AM
Ukraine strikes Antonivskyi Bridge, as well as a parallel bridge, further isolating invader forces in Kherson (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-antonivskyi-bridge-essential-russian-supply-lines-occupied-kherson/)

The bridge is technically still standing, but it has huge holes running through it to the point that vehicles can no longer cross.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 27, 2022, 05:07:54 PM
Russian troops have rough time in Kherson (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/27/7360371/)

Ukrainan forces destroy a recon drone, shoot down a suicide drone (it was targetting a Ukrainian radar station), blow up an ammo depot, a tank, a few howitzers, some vehicles, and 89 troops.

Oh, and the cherry on top is that the invaders shot down their own attack helicopter (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/27/7360369/).

QuoteRussian air defence has never been particularly known for its accuracy, so the invaders shot down only one out of their three Ka-52 attack helicopters."
The Ukrainians really know how to add insult to injury!  The previous article called it a "gesture of goodwill", after the Russian abandonment of Snake Island due to intense bombardment by Ukrainian forces.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 28, 2022, 08:38:24 AM
Poland fundraises a Bayraktar for Ukraine, the company donates the drone for free.

If this sounds familiar, this is like the third or fourth time this has happened.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 28, 2022, 09:13:42 AM
Ukraine destroys an ammo depot in Chornobaivka (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/28/7360574/)

This is sonething like the 50th time Ukrainians have blown up Russians there.  A newborn baby could figure out the pattern, yet Russian brass can't and sends their cannon fodder there anyway.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 28, 2022, 09:35:44 PM
United Russia reps flee Kherson (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1552764626957471745?t=fN2RJOpG8aqHJOqrVgLI8w&s=34)

They are Putin Party members who create propaganda for Putin and tried to create a fake referredumn for Kherson to join Russia (which hit a slight snag when the general in charge of that was blown up)  They're the scum of the earth.

Reportedly, some Rosgvardia (Putin's private army) troops also fled.

However, the grunts are stuck and bitterly complained on an intercepted phone call (lol are they ever going to encrypt their calls?) that Kadyrovites (Pro-Putin Chechens) are positioned to shoot them if they try to escape.

The simple solution is to just shoot the Kadyrovites and leave.  Or even simpler, just surrender at the first opportunity.  We'll see.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 29, 2022, 08:33:14 AM
I'll spare everyone the graphic details, but the Russians released a video of mutilating of a Ukrainian pow.  They're apparently proud of that.

The Ukrainians pieced together the identity of the war criminal and he's essentially signed his own death warrant.

More civilians were killed in a rocket attack.  Also, Russians have been torturing and killing POWs, including some from Avoz (some were released in prisoner exchanges months ago, so some made it out relatively unscathed while others weren't so fortunate)

Russia is definitely going for war crimes bingo.  Any dealings with them whatsoever in the future will be under the shadow of the grim reality that these people are monsters who mutilate and torture and kill for fun.

With that in mind, the Senate has urged the State Department to declare that Russia is a state sponsor of terror.

Also, it looks like Ukraine might get those 300km-range HIMARS missiles after all.  Mad Vlad and his torture buddies are making that a reality as we speak.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 29, 2022, 01:30:52 PM
And the rock cried out, no hiding place:  Avoz announces special hunt for war criminals who massacred POWs (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/29/7360846/)

QuoteI, on behalf of the Azov units, announce a hunt for everyone involved in the mass murder. Every rank-and-file actor and every organiser, regardless of their position and location, will bear responsibility. Wherever you hide, you will be found and exterminated."
Bonne chance, morceaux de merde.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 30, 2022, 01:11:36 AM
Meanwhile, on the battlefield: Ukrainian forces operating in southern Ukraine destroy the following (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553188343944548354?s=20&t=k2s5FAumHQU2-nwx7FyNpA):

* 105 Russian troops
* 7 tanks
* a howitzer
* 2 self-propelled artillery
* 17 armored and military vehicles
* two ammunition depots
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 30, 2022, 08:40:12 AM
Z-Scum keep walking:  Latvia requires Russians crossing the border to sign document condemning the invasion (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553168791550541824)

This is for security reasons as the pro-genocide Russians present much more of a security threat than the anti-genocide ones.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 30, 2022, 08:44:18 AM
Active fires in Ukraine (used to get a broad idea of where the fighting is taking place)

(https://preview.redd.it/67jjaxjxene91.png?width=1513&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b64523def391a42677e688c533709853bae75a1)

As you can see, temporarily-occupied territory near Kherson is getting pummeled.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 30, 2022, 02:36:15 PM
Two of Russia's top pilots killed by HIMARS strikes (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-fighter-pilots-killed-us-donated-himars-2022-7)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 30, 2022, 02:41:01 PM
Lost the battle, lost the war:  Russian POW calls wife, wife says to call back after work (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1553296010272800771)

Even Doctors Without Borders can't mend that broken heart 💔
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 31, 2022, 10:13:32 AM
HIMARS strike destroys 40-vehicle convoy sent from Crimea to reinforce Kherson (https://mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1553714116702789633)

They were going the wrong way.  Should've traveled from Crimea to Russia and lived while they had the chance.

200 Russian Marines from the Black Sea fleet demonstrated their humanity and refused to fight in Putin's War (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3540699-intelligence-report-200-russian-marines-defy-orders-refuse-to-redeploy-in-ukraine.html)

They were supposed to be part of a new battalion operating in southern Ukraine.  The battalion formed anyway, it just took longer and they used much less experienced, capable troops instead.  Now, these rookies will almost certainly be dead idiots soon and the smart, humane Russians are far more likely to live.  Such is the way of this war.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 31, 2022, 10:49:00 AM
Bunker-baby Putin draws plans to flee Russia if/when invasion fails (https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/vladimir-putin-preparing-plans-for-evacuation-if-ukraine-overcomes-his-troops-in-war-that-has-lasted-162-days-so-far/news-story/7c098576968f205292763fe4cbe84052)

Quote"Defeat in the war for the President of Russia will mean the end of his power and the regimen as a whole," Telegram account General CVR wrote, citing tip offs from "retired and active intelligence agents".

Last week the same account reported the dictator suffered from "severe nausea" that saw a him treated for three hours by a team of doctors who rush to his bedside.

Since then, a new report has claimed "Putin himself and his entourage are preparing plans for evacuation from Russia" in search for refuge if his war failed.

Four ally countries would be on the cards for the Russian President should he flee.

Belarus, who Putin shares a close friendship with its President Alexander Lukashenko, Myanmar, Venezuela, Syria and possibly Iran
Repeating history, Nazis flee to South America.

As for Putin, maybe his people catch wind of his plans and give him an upside down view of Moscow, similar to his pal Mussolini.

Who knows what dark fate awaits dictators who ruin countless lives - Ukrainian and Russian - for fun?  But we can always hope.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on July 31, 2022, 10:59:36 AM
He has a ready room at Mar A Lago. 8^D
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 31, 2022, 02:10:04 PM
Update to HIMARS strike on 40 vehicles

It wasn't a convoy, the vehicles were being transfered by rail.  The train was hit, destroying the vehicles.

80 dead orcs, over 200 wounded.  🌻🌻🌻
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 31, 2022, 02:18:39 PM
Swift and brutal justice: torturer who mutilated a Ukrainian pow has reportedly been killed (https://mobile.twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1553762859087175681).

No quarter, no mercy, no pity.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on July 31, 2022, 09:13:04 PM
(https://i.redd.it/n5eyojhjn8e91.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 01, 2022, 08:40:42 AM
Ukrainian intelligence obtains names/addresses of everyone involved in the Kherson fake referendum (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/1/7361273/)

Knock, knock.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 01, 2022, 08:44:03 AM
Ukrainian marines capture 11 russian soldiers in the Kherson region after a successful battle (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3541252-ukrainian-marines-capture-11-russians-in-kherson-region.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 01, 2022, 08:57:33 AM
Russia being russia roundup:

Russian state media lies again and says it destroyed a HIMARS (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1554053818396151811?s=21&t=zSJRHIw94OiRzyGw0nfIdg).  They claim it was on the second floor of a power plant.  Did it take the stairs or the elevator? 🤔

Russian soldier tries to disarm a landmine by throwing a tire on it.  It explodes and it looks like he takes shrapnel to his side, and he's seen trying to walk it off.  Good luck with that.

Russia soldier records a TikTok from his tent and gets mortared at the end.

Lots of Darwin Award winners every day.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 01, 2022, 01:42:37 PM
Desperation level: Russia

Russian forces fire artillery from power plant (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-fires-artillery-from-nuclear-plant-ukraine-cant-shoot-back-2022-8), knowing that Ukrainian forces will be reluctant to fire back

(Apparently that stuff about a HIMARS firing from the second floor of a power plant was just projection)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 01, 2022, 07:47:46 PM
Ukraine receives 4 more HIMARS from US, 3 MLRS from Germany (https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-gets-more-us-german-rocket-launcher-systems-minister-2022-08-01/) (70km range)

QuoteMoscow has accused the West of dragging out the conflict by giving Ukraine more arms, and said the supply of longer-range weapons justifies Russia's attempts to expand control over more Ukrainian territory for its own protection.
Both of which are obvious lies recognizable by just about anyone.

Obviously, the Allies are trying to prevent Z-Axis from overrunning free Ukraine.  If anything, HIMARS is bringing the slaughter (mostly of Ukranian civilians) to a relative standstill and it goes without saying that repelling the invaders is the only sure way to end the violence.

Secondly, Russian propagandists are injecting some serious copium and working with backwards logic if they think they can justify the February invasion with developments that happened months later.  The West wouldn't dream of arming Ukraine with such potent weapons if they weren't credibly faced with genocide otherwise.  If Russia sought peace, there would be no war and no HIMARS.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 01, 2022, 07:52:49 PM
Terrified invader forces in Kherson scurry from house to house, dress up as civilians in bid to avoid certain death (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1554202893724549120?s=21&t=PwB_IFzIps5LGj2gVbVu3Q)

Run.  And keep running.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 02, 2022, 04:38:28 PM
Russian forces are creating "ghost bridges" in Ukraine (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-building-ghost-bridges-with-radar-reflectors-in-ukraine)

Essentially, these ghosts bridges are not functioning bridges but seem like real bridges on radar.

Unforunately for the invaders, HIMARS strikes are GPS guided, not radar guided.  So this is a big fat waste of time and effort on their part.  Real dunce cap stuff.

They used a similar tactic on the bridge between Crimea and Russia.  It didn't do anything either.  They also used a smoke machine to create a  smokescreen.  Not only did it not deter anything, it caused a car crash on the bridge.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 03, 2022, 08:01:30 AM
Under a smokescreen, invaders blow up their own ammo cars (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/2/7361509/)

Quick order of events:

1) Train filled with military hardware and ammunition comes from Crimea to Kherson region

2) Russian troops deploy a smokescreen, thinking it will conceal their operation and hide them from attacks.  (It doesn't, btw)

3) Something explodes.  It's unclear how or why.  Careless handling of explosives?  Inept use of pyrotechnics to make the smokescreen?  Rough seas?

4) Russians scatter and pee themselves, falsely believing that they're under attack (they are under surveillance, though). Train immediately departs back to Crimea, aborting the whole unloading operation.

5) Ukrainians look on at the resulting chaos and burning wreckage with a mixture of confusion and bemusement, presumably while listening to Yakety Sax.

Don't know about this new crew of yours. They seem a bit skittish. Probably shouldn't tell them what happened to the last crew.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 03, 2022, 11:35:23 AM
Huge warehouse near Moscow burns down in mysterious fire (https://www.newsweek.com/fire-blaze-russian-warehouse-ozon-amazon-moscow-istra-video-1730465)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 03, 2022, 10:31:46 PM
This happened months ago, but it's a helluva story (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1554918169478774786?t=n7qTibKW1wRoWWOKAo80Hg&s=19).

A 72-year-old pensioner/retiree wanted to join the Ukrainian military but was too old to join.

Well, when the inavders came by, he hit a Russian convoy (Kadyrovites, no less) with a RPG and grenades.  Burned down a fuel truck.  Really gave them hell.


This guy is old and way past his prime and even so, he's out there chewing bubble gum and blowing stuff up like a one-man army.  And there are plenty of heroes just like him all over Ukraine.  There is zero chance Russia can conquer a people with that sort of courage and grit.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 04, 2022, 12:01:16 PM
Plenty of news lately.  Hard to keep up.

Ukrainian forces attack column supplying ammo to invaders between Kharkiv and Russian border (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-military-hit-a-column-supplying-ammunition-to-the-invaders-near-the-border/)

Ukrainian forces destroy two ammo depots in Kherson region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3542709-ukraines-armed-forces-destroy-two-enemy-ammo-depots-in-kherson-region.html).  They also damaged the rail line between Kherson and Crimea (https://mobile.twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1554726872491114496?s=21&t=bT2MBM_dhCT8KPfa-virkw)

Ukrainian marines set up an ambush against invaders, kill 15 and capture 3 (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/3/7361671/)

Pro-Russian killer who admitted to murdering civilians and enjoying it (real piece of work) was killed (https://www.ibtimes.com/pro-russian-fighter-korsa-who-enjoyed-killing-ukrainians-dies-combat-putin-makes-her-3597120).  Dictactor Putin calls her a "hero" because he's also a real piece of work and has a similarly deranged fondness for cruelty.  The two can be buried together for all I care.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 04, 2022, 12:10:34 PM
Also, Ukrainian forces blew up an invader command post at Chornobayivka (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_troops_destroyed_russian_command_post_in_chornobayivka-3768.html)

If that sounds familiar, this happens so often that I have to check both the date and the time of day to make absolutely sure that I'm not confusing it with previous strikes.

Honestly, when Ukraine recaptures it, it's going to be a bit of a letdown because it's like whack-a-mole where the mole predictably only comes out of one hole.

Chornobayivka airport has been bombed so much that I'm half-convinced that the Russians just sleep in the craters, thinking that it's impossible for lightning to strike the same place twice.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 04, 2022, 12:25:25 PM
Russian cruelties are inflicted on those who can't fight back, even in the Motherland

No onscreen violence, but mean af and difficult to watch.  I can't put a spoiler tag on the video, so watch it or not at your own discretion.


Brainwashed soldier cluelessly recites known lies about Ukrainians.  Bus driver is totally without common human decency.  Bad scene all around.

Moral if the story:  Don't put your life in the hands of brutes and inhuman scum who will use you as cannon fodder - who will take your life, your mind, your heart, and/or your legs, and then discard you at the earliest opportunity.  Don't give yourselves to these unnatural men - machine men with machine minds and machine hearts! You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men!  Act like it!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 04, 2022, 09:38:55 PM
My sweetheart always says if we can just get off that oil tit, all of these oily dictators will melt away. We are doing the math to put up solar panels for our studio/workshop. The breakeven for the house isn't so good (just because we are no spring chicks) unless the bill goes up some more.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 04, 2022, 10:39:26 PM
That's not a silver bullet for dictators - North Korea for example does not produce oil in significant quantities.

But the general idea of democracies no longer funding dictatorships is a good start.

Another good one is diplomatic isolation.  No UN committees coming their way, no permanent seat at the UN security council, no inclusion in defensive pacts or trading blocs, etc.  Let them twist in the wind and see if these "strong men" are truly strong or simply parasites on much stronger states.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on August 04, 2022, 10:40:50 PM
Quote from: Cassia on August 04, 2022, 09:38:55 PMMy sweetheart always says if we can just get off that oil tit, all of these oily dictators will melt away. We are doing the math to put up solar panels for our studio/workshop. The breakeven for the house isn't so good (just because we are no spring chicks) unless the bill goes up some more.

The manufacture of solar panels is quite petroleum intensive (not to mention the horrific waste from the mining of the materials), as is the refinement of uranium for fission power. The real solution is to live in a place where these things are not required. I remember sweating like a pig, in southern California as a kid. 100+ degree weather really stinks when one has NO air conditioning...even when it's a "dry heat". Not trying to be a party-pooper, just pointing out some facts. I am legit trying to figure out where to live without this threat. I suspect that there is no such place, without dependence on the system already in place, more's the pity.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on August 05, 2022, 07:44:18 AM
Quote from: Dark Lightning on August 04, 2022, 10:40:50 PMI remember sweating like a pig, in southern California as a kid. 100+ degree weather really stinks when one has NO air conditioning...even when it's a "dry heat". Not trying to be a party-pooper, just pointing out some facts. I am legit trying to figure out where to live without this threat. I suspect that there is no such place, without dependence on the system already in place, more's the pity.
We have come to rely on AC, fast transportation, and petroleum products.  It's very convenient. And it is because energy is cheap, even when gasoline cost more than $5/gallon, it's still dirt cheap, so we burn energy like there's no tomorrow and waste it, all the while adding carbon to the atmosphere.

Future generations, fuck off and die. But no one is going to "sweat like pig" today just so you can be comfortable later.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 05, 2022, 02:24:07 PM
Ukrainian forces destroy 4 S-300 and a very rare air defense radar (https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukraines_military_hunted_down_four_russias_s_300_air_defense_systems_and_a_rare_9s19_imbir_air_surveillance_radar-3779.html)

This makes it much easier for Ukrainian forces to conduct air campaigns and shoot ballistic missiles at Russian positions in southern Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 05, 2022, 02:26:34 PM
Despite officially refusing Putin, Iran has handed over 46 drones to Putin (https://mobile.twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1555500399200817152?s=21&t=nHZq8oGG7_yN11OFp5aBsw), who is using them in Ukraine
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 05, 2022, 02:38:03 PM
A vehicle with 6 Russian officers and 5 soldiers was blown skyhigh by Ukrainian forces while moving.  All KIA without a doubt.

A second vehicle was nearby and took the turn a little too hard and flipped over despite not being damaged (watching your comrades be annihilated next to you must be distracting).  No idea what happened to them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 05, 2022, 07:37:15 PM
Ukraine's Air Force "Has No Information" about SU-25 Jets Sent by North Macedonia to Ukraine. (https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/5/7144511/)

"No idea what you're talking about", says spokesman in trench coat, glasses, and mustache
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 06, 2022, 10:09:21 AM
In Southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces destroy: (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1555756841828769792?s=20&t=117kunIIXIz3XjI-PqUFig)

6 ammunition depots
79 Russian troops
4 tanks
3 howitzers
22 armored/military vehicles
an artillery installation
a radar station

Impressive numbers.  Substantial attrition as well as some nice strategic targets (ammo depots, radar, artillery installation)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 06, 2022, 10:29:36 AM
Dead men walking: Putin recruits complete newbies to reinforce invasion (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3544612-russia-forming-3rd-army-corps-for-war-in-ukraine-isw.html)

18 to 50 without prior military experience, at least a middle school graduation (they'll take high school dropouts)

FNG Army, more like.  Green af and dumb af, from the looks of it.  I don't envy their chances.

The part that has me worried is that there are 15,000 of them.  Even though Ukraine grinds through Russian forces fairly quickly, chewing through thousands of reinforcements takes a lot of time and prolongs this war.

Putin's been lying and saying that HIMARS is prolonging the war.  But actually, these constant attempts to send more bodies to the front and eke out a win despite the special operation going spectacularly awry is what is actually prolonging the war.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 06, 2022, 11:45:21 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 06, 2022, 10:29:36 AMDead men walking: Putin recruits complete newbies to reinforce invasion (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3544612-russia-forming-3rd-army-corps-for-war-in-ukraine-isw.html)

18 to 50 without prior military experience, at least a middle school graduation (they'll take high school dropouts)

FNG Army, more like.  Green af and dumb af, from the looks of it.  I don't envy their chances.

The part that has me worried is that there are 15,000 of them.  Even though Ukraine grinds through Russian forces fairly quickly, chewing through thousands of reinforcements takes a lot of time and prolongs this war.

Putin's been lying and saying that HIMARS is prolonging the war.  But actually, these constant attempts to send more bodies to the front and eke out a win despite the special operation going spectacularly awry is what is actually prolonging the war.
Historically Russia has used the strategy of feeding their peasant-soldiers into the grinder to wage battles of attrition. Soviet casualties invading Finland in 1939 were over 300k vs 70k for the Finns. They are doing it again.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 06, 2022, 03:26:12 PM
Russia released a bizarre commercial trying to attract people to Russia (the ones they haven't kidnapped), a country with a net negative population growth for entirely different reasons than say, Japan.


Among the "pros":

* Cheap oil/gas (living in a petrostate, I should hope so)

* Cheap goods (by western standards, but it's not like you can buy anything worthwhile - you can't buy a car with antilock brakes or a halfway decent computer or a plane ticket to practically anywhere in Europe)

* Fertile soil (true only in very select portions of the country, this is misleading bordering on lying for a country notorious for vast swathes of barren land)

* Beautiful women (here's where they lost me.  Even assuming that's true, quite a few of them are pro-nazi and into torture now, brainwashed by state media.  There's no hourglass figure in the world that can make up for that.

Also, couldn't help notice that nothing was said about the men...)

* Cuisine (lol no)

* Architechture, writers, history (also true of every single country on Earth)

* Traditional Values, No "Cancel Culture" (What a weird way to say hopelessly backwards and bizarrely proud of it.  And they absolutely do have a cancel culture.  They just take your life, not your twitter account)

* Vodka (probably the only legit selling point, but other countries make vodka too, so your mileage may vary)

* Apply before winter! (Why?  Are the winters bad or something?)

Cons:

Shaky economy, pervasive poverty, crippling sanctions, brain drain, madman dictator, kleptocracy, state sanctioned repression of minority groups, no freedom, no representation, no hope for the future, horrible beaches
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 01:19:28 AM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 01:32:11 AM
For anyone having trouble figuring out which side is evil: one side regularly and enthusiastically engages in war crimes against POWs (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-atrocity-claim-image-appears-to-show-head-of-ukrainian-pow-stuck-on-a-pole-2022-8), the other gives POWs some warm tea, a phone to talk to their family, and a cot.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 08:29:28 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 05, 2022, 07:37:15 PMUkraine's Air Force "Has No Information" about SU-25 Jets Sent by North Macedonia to Ukraine. (https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/5/7144511/)

"No idea what you're talking about", says spokesman in trench coat, glasses, and mustache
Update: Ukraine thanks NM for the tanks (https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-tanks-macedonia-thanks/31976738.html), mum on planes
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 08:46:52 AM
Ukrainian Armed Forces destroy Russian Pantsir anti-air missile system and 4 S-300 anti-air missile systems in southern Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/7/7362198/)

On Aug 6th, they also destroyed a Russian 2A18 122 mm howitzer, a reconnaissance drone, several armoured and other vehicles, and an ammunition dump.

Invaders in Southern Ukraine are feeling the sting.  Every day, they shed more hardware and their position gets weaker.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 08:53:04 AM
Russia has already burned through half of its resources in this war (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1556183695685476352?s=19), seriously degrading their ability to wage further war

(https://i.redd.it/nuaxskcze4g91.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on August 07, 2022, 11:04:47 AM
So, they're ripe for attack. Let's get 'em.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 09:21:06 PM
Rumor has it that Ukraine *might* have HARM missiles (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/does-ukraine-now-have-agm-88-high-speed-anti-radiation-missiles).

Take this with not just a pinch of salt, but all the salt in the Black Sea.  Until there's official confirmation, don't get your hopes up.  That said...that'd be super cool.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Blackleaf on August 07, 2022, 09:48:46 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 08:53:04 AMRussia has already burned through half of its resources in this war (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1556183695685476352?s=19), seriously degrading their ability to wage further war

(https://i.redd.it/nuaxskcze4g91.jpg)

Seriously, what is Putin's endgame here? How much does he have to lose until he says, "You know what? This isn't worth it."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on August 07, 2022, 09:53:09 PM
Who can evaluate the judgment of a madman? He's mad, and we aren't. This cuts completely through humanity- we just don't understand crazy. We see the results, though.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on August 07, 2022, 10:00:11 PM
Quote from: Blackleaf on August 07, 2022, 09:48:46 PMSeriously, what is Putin's endgame here? How much does he have to lose until he says, "You know what? This isn't worth it."

He needs to catch a showing of "My American Cousin"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 11:57:05 PM
Quote from: Blackleaf on August 07, 2022, 09:48:46 PMSeriously, what is Putin's endgame here? How much does he have to lose until he says, "You know what? This isn't worth it."
Imagine you're a ruthless dictator for a second.   You climbed your way to the top over a mountain of corpses.  Everyone is scared shitless of you.  Your state media tells the masses that the country and its fearless leader are strong.  Every advisor you talk to - people who grew up on said media - tells you that you're amazing, your army is top notch, and the enemy is weak. (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-dictator-trap-russia-ukraine/627064/)

All you have to do is send more troops, send in some Wunderwaffe (like terminator tanks or hypersonic missiles), and intensify forward firepower/artillery.  The enemy's lines will break any second now, and then it's just a swift mop-up operation and then Kyiv surrenders. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking)

Besides, so many soldiers have died already, we can't let their sacrifice be in vain (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost).  And more importantly, if you botch this, there's no apology tour, you're a deadman.  Autocrats die when the public realizes that they're incompetent, so they must never know.  That's why communications and media are so tightly controlled in autocracies, it's why Putin went to great lengths to pretend to be a shirtless manly man, it's why dead soldiers are cremated at occupied cities and not returned home for burial, and it's why no one from Moscow is getting drafted.

Would you tell the world that you've lost and put your life on the line?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 08, 2022, 08:25:50 AM
Ukrainian HIMARS  eliminates more than 100 Russian soldiers and their equipment in Melitopol (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3545711-ukrainian-army-eliminates-more-than-100-russian-soldiers-and-their-equipment-in-melitopol.html)

It just so happens that the Russians relocated much of their air defense from Melitopol to Kherson last week and therefore was unusually vulnerable.  What a strange coincidence.

It would be a shame if they lost even more air defense, giving the Ukrainian air force and drones free reign to wipe the floor with them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 08, 2022, 08:36:16 AM
North of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces observed invaders unloading artillery ammo, ukrainian artillery blew the site skyhigh. (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/8/7362290/)  A Russian special forces unit was also destroyed.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on August 08, 2022, 09:03:42 AM
I'll say it again.  I never expected Ukraine to last more than a week or two.  And I'm still stunned by the inability of Russia to make progress.  It's as if their purpose is no longer to gain control, but to just wreck as much stuff as they can.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mr.Obvious on August 09, 2022, 02:15:44 AM
I'll also say i imagined russia's economy to hav fully crashed by now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 09, 2022, 07:14:53 AM
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on August 09, 2022, 02:15:44 AMI'll also say i imagined russia's economy to hav fully crashed by now.
It hasn't crashed, but its GDP is expected to decrease 6% this year (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/russia-faces-economic-oblivion-despite-short-term-resilience.html), roughly equivalent to the financial drain at the height of the pandemic.  If it was at peace, its GDP would be increasing by about 5% instead.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 10, 2022, 01:00:57 PM
Mysterious fire erupts in oil storage facility in Russian city of Yeysk (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/oil-storage-facility-on-fire-in-russian-yeysk/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 10, 2022, 01:34:55 PM
I'm sure everyone has heard by now about the recent explosions in the Russian military base in Ukrainian Crimea.

Details were sparse at first. HIMARS?  Partisans?  Some experimental Ukrainian weapon? Rough seas?  Today, we know with high certainty that it was actually the work of Ukrainan special forces (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/10/ukraine-russia-crimea-beach-blast/), apparently catching Russian forces totally unaware, since they only went to high alert after the attack, not before.

Russians said it was an accident (similar to how the sinking of their flagship was an accident) and that no one was injured.  Risable.

They also said that no aircraft were damaged.  There's footage of one military jet and it's a charred ruin except for the nose and some of the cockpit.  I would imagine that qualifies as damage.  In fact, 9 planes and many vehicles have been utterly destroyed (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-russian-warplanes-destroyed-crimea-blasts-88187762), an estimated loss of $1 billion.  A costly loss that cannot be easily or quickly replaced.

Russians are fleeing Crimea, creating large traffic jams, apparently unaware until now that they live in an active warzone and that Ukrainian forces have publically expressed their desire to bomb the Kerch bridge and will do so whenever the opportunity arises.

Some Russians are upset about having to flee their homes in terror.  I'm sure that Ukrainians, especially Ukrainians who just 8 years ago used to live in those homes, can relate.

There is no cause for concern.  After hostilities are over, Russians could potentially  once again enjoy Crimean beaches and the modern marvel of indoor plumbing, so long as they behave themselves. Can't blame a country for expelling murderers and rapists and returning to the civilized practice of being more selective about its visitors.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 10, 2022, 05:24:04 PM
Russia has deployed state-of-the-art air defense to Crimea (https://mobile.twitter.com/na_intel/status/1557381938742263808)

Just kidding, they had a propagandist talk with a stack of empty barrels or inflatables or something in the background, which to the exceptionally uninformed might at first glance appear to be a S-300 air defense missile launcher.

(https://gagadget.com/media/cache/a9/d1/a9d1f0289e2ba550c911d514ede3191a.jpg)

One small difference: the real thing is a lot more rigid and doesn't sway in the breeze.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZzx1b7acAEj7fl?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 10, 2022, 06:32:05 PM
Many of the real S-300 missile launchers are reportedly being moved closer to the front (https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/russians-moving-air-defense-systems-to-front-lines-adviser-to-mariupol-mayor.html), presumably to be used as jury-rigged artillery instead of proper anti-air units.

This might be a tacit admission on Moscow's part that their air defense is too weak to shoot down HIMARS or a ramping up of the ground conflict to inflict as much damage as they can, either spitefully or delusionally thinking that one last push will finally break through.

It would be such a shame if Ukraine exploited this tactical error and picked off enough of Russia's remaining air defense to allow for a much more intensive air campaign over russian positions.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 10, 2022, 10:16:47 PM
Viral video that the reactive armor over at least one Russian tank is just filled with air and a thin strip of rubber (https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wl3e5e/the_dynamic_protection_of_the_captured_russian/)

Bear in mind that I'm not a tank expert or anything, but that's not normal.  No wonder these things are getting brewed up and/or jack-in-the-box'ed.  That rubber won't do squat.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 10, 2022, 11:42:26 PM
Russian army near Kherson panicking, starts to evacuate invader military families (https://www.ibtimes.com/russian-army-panic-starts-mass-deportation-family-members-after-successful-ukraine-attack-3599981)

I have no idea why these people thought it was a good idea to bring their families to an active warzone.  Perhaps they were a tad too confident in their chances.  Perhaps they were just stupid.  Perhaps they wanted to show off the magical western toilets.  Who knows.  Now matter how the decision was made, they're starting to regret it.  Ukraine is bringing down the hammer on these idiots, and if they have any sense at all, they'll leave with their families.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 11, 2022, 06:53:39 PM
Russians tricked into fighting Ukraine (https://news.yahoo.com/massive-leak-reveals-russian-soldiers-181745668.html)

QuoteIn a lengthy complaint, the girlfriend of a soldier from the central city of Ulyanovsk pleaded with prosecutors to help her find her boyfriend she suspects may have been taken prisoner despite the fact that charred remains found outside Kyiv were identified as his.

The woman said her boyfriend's parents would not share burial documents with her or offer DNA samples, apparently because they were happy to receive a hefty compensation for a soldier killed in action.

"They don't want to try to find their son among PoWs or those gravely injured. They're happy with the compensation," she wrote.

"We have no idea who we buried."
W. T. F.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 11, 2022, 08:13:57 PM
In southern Ukraine, Ukraine Army destroys over 40 invaders, three howitzers, arms depot, command post (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3547911-south-ukraine-army-destroys-over-40-invaders-three-howitzers-arms-depot-command-post.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 11, 2022, 09:57:32 PM
After losing its best fighter jets to "rough seas", Russia turns to severely outdated replacements (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-loses-24-its-best-fighter-jets-turns-obsolete-planes-ukraine-1732984)

They're replacing these Su-35 jets (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-35):

(https://bulgarianmilitary.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/4.5-Gen-Su-35-on-SEAD-mission-was-shot-down-over-Ukraine-by-SAM-4.jpg)
(probably not the most glamourous shot, but whatevs)

With these Su-24 jets (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-24):

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZt2FDpd4El5pUWEPkx0GfMxqA4TGT1oMM1xAqThHC0nkPFjM&s)

I hope they're ready to bulk order those civilian GPS devices.  Gonna need 'em!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 12, 2022, 09:25:16 AM
Caught em napping: Z sleeps in, wakes up in Ukrainian hands (https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkRid89403375/status/1558057106175033344)

Now he'll have plenty of time to sleep in to his heart's content.  Plus, he'll live through this conflict.  Imo, the Ukrainians did him a favor.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 12, 2022, 01:52:42 PM
Burn baby burn: Ukraine releases footage of strike against a Russian Grad multiple rocket launcher and ammo burning up (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/12/7362989/)

You can see the rocket launcher firing wildly as its ammo ignites before it's finally consumed in an inferno.

Slava Ukrayini!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 12, 2022, 04:41:05 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 12, 2022, 01:52:42 PMBurn baby burn: Ukraine releases footage of strike against a Russian Grad multiple rocket launcher and ammo burning up (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/12/7362989/)

You can see the rocket launcher firing wildly as its ammo ignites before it's finally consumed in an inferno.

Slava Ukrayini!
I wonder if the drone (I assume) taking that crazy footage also provided fire control and/or initial targeting?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 12, 2022, 10:44:36 PM
Quote from: Cassia on August 12, 2022, 04:41:05 PM I wonder if the drone (I assume) taking that crazy footage also provided fire control and/or initial targeting?
Almost certainly.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 13, 2022, 09:48:21 AM
I talked to an ex-military person about that bizzare captured-while napping video.

 

Sleeping in the middle of the afternoon.  No sentries.  No booby traps.  Alone.  Bright red sleeping bag in the middle of the forest.  It seems too good to be true and too incompetent to be believable.

He insists that the soldier essentially gave up and then  intentionally created the conditions that would lead to his capture.  It's a surrender with plausible deniability.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 13, 2022, 09:53:43 AM
In very minor news with long-term importance, Ukrainian schools will stop teaching Russian entirely.  They will also bolster their English curriculum and prioritize English as their go-to for international communications, their linga franca so to speak.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 13, 2022, 10:19:36 AM
US officials say 500 Russian troops are killed/wounded in Ukraine every day (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/11/us/politics/russian-casualties-ukraine.html)

They had 190,000 troops at the start of the invasion and >40,000 have been killed according to Ukraine.  150,000 divided by 500...carry the one...that's less than a year's worth of troops, though obviously there have been reinforcements and it's not like militaries continue to function after their numbers drop super low, etc.  So don't quote me on the specifics.

The point is, Russian losses are completely unsustainable and not only can Russia mathematically not conquer Ukraine, it will not be able to hold onto territories it has conquered.

Ukrainian figures are a bit trickier since they aren't as well known, but we do know that they have been high though less than Russian casualties.  Somewhere between 100-200 killed per day.

But thanks to HIMARS and other weapon systems pouring in, Ukrainian casualties have dropped sharply, down to about 30 killed per day (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550589746879123457).

That's a HUGE difference!  And while obviously, any casualties at all is bad, Ukraine's military is faring much better than Russia's.

Ukraine is winning this war of attrition.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 13, 2022, 10:51:46 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 13, 2022, 10:19:36 AMUS officials say 500 Russian troops are killed/wounded in Ukraine every day.... (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/11/us/politics/russian-casualties-ukraine.html)
That's about the same number of Americans dying of Covid every day right now. Probably under reported, especially here in Floriduh. Almost everyone here has decided it is over. Even at my dentist office. If I die now, I'm gonna be pissed.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 13, 2022, 11:22:50 AM
Russia is drafting a new tactic for countering HIMARS (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-new-himars-tactic-ukraine-war-oleksiy-danilov-1733047)

Destroying the weapons platforms?  Nyet.

Intercepting the missiles?  Nyet.

Destroying western arms shipments en route?  Nyet.

BETTER.

Are you ready for the sheer tactical genius I'm about to lay on you?  Well, fasten the seatbelts on your Lada, because there are no antilock brakes on this ride!

Their latest tactical genius move is...*drumroll* don't bunch up so much

A 10-year-old korean boy playing Starcraft could tell you that!

These people are the laughingstocks of the whole world!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 13, 2022, 12:28:44 PM
Steven Seagal visits destroyed Ukrainian prison in support of Kremlin
Seagal, who supported Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea in Ukraine's south, was later granted Russian citizenship by President Vladimir Putin. Seagal was appointed as Russia's special envoy to the U.S. in 2018.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/steven-seagal-visits-destroyed-ukrainian-155522168.html
(http://i.imgur.com/s63NFXr.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 13, 2022, 01:43:45 PM
Quote from: Cassia on August 13, 2022, 12:28:44 PMSteven Seagal visits destroyed Ukrainian prison in support of Kremlin
More like washed-up actor and Putin toadie transported to war crimes site to broadcast propaganda in favor of the killers and criminals.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 14, 2022, 11:15:59 AM

I saw a video where the Russians drove a tank down a road alone (combined arms, infantry support, what's that?) and wouldn't you know it, the tank got one-shotted by artillery or an anti-tank weapon or something.  It's difficult to tell exactly what happened.  One moment, the tank was there, the next it was the world's most expensive BBQ grill.

And I got to thinking, wtf were they trying to do with that solitary tank?  It makes no sense.

Apparently, they were doing what's called a probing action, trying to search through enemy territory looking for enemy forces, then retreat when there's trouble.  On paper, that makes sense.  In reality, not so much.

A lot of things have changed in the world since 1945.  Russia is fighting an enemy that has eyes in the sky 24/7, we're talking spy satellites, air recon, drone recon from drones build specifically for them, enough night vision goggles to start a Splinter Cell cosplay battallion, and a smorgasbord of advanced weapons from over a dozen countries to bring the hammer down on whatever they find.  Probing actions won't cut it.

Russian tactics used to work well...decades and decades ago.  Or against an enemy with subpar equipment and no intel.

The simple fact is that Russia cannot win against a near-peer adversary on a modern battlefield.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 14, 2022, 05:12:05 PM
(https://i.redd.it/03wm7qqcvph91.jpg)

A picture is worth a thousand words, but I'll settle for grid coordinates.

It got hit, btw (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1558881161727942656).  Just a "gesture of goodwill" from humanity to the crimes against humanity folks.  Gotta plant those seeds.  Hopefully, they'll take root.

Edit - their address was in one of the group photos, lol.  Say cheese!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 14, 2022, 06:18:29 PM
Cheapskate Dictator Putin fails to pay reservists and civilian laborers in Ukraine (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-fails-to-pay-military-reservists-civilian-laborers-brought-into-ukraine/ar-AA10EEZZ)

Expect work to mirror pay.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 14, 2022, 09:08:41 PM
Ukrainians shoot down two Russian Ka-52 helicopters over the past 2 days (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/14/7363188/)

$15 million a pop.  Rough weekend for Putin.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 14, 2022, 10:20:09 PM
Russian reaction to looming revocation of visas (https://mobile.twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1558822289701044227)

They're taking it well.

Deep breaths, guys. One-two-three-HIMARS. Four-Five-Slava-Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 15, 2022, 02:33:50 PM
Wagner bodies litter battlefield (https://www.ibtimes.com/dead-bodies-alleged-russian-mercenaries-litter-battlefield-after-encounter-ukraine-army-report-3601827)

This happened at Bakmut, unrelated to the recent destruction of the Wagner HQ in Popasna, where Russian forces leaked their own coordinates and were then hit with a HIMARS strike.

Quotetheir uniforms allegedly bore "green armbands with Arab signs" as well as Grim Reaper patches with the slogan, "I don't believe in anything. I'm here for violence,"
Well, they got what they wanted.  Enough to last a lifetime.

QuoteMembers of the Wagner Group are neither elite forces nor well-trained commandos, but are instead "just another sort of cannon fodder," according to Russian military expert Pavel Luzin.

"They are after money. And they die for money. We haven't seen any advanced tactics from them," a Ukrainian soldier told RFE/RL
Oof.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 15, 2022, 04:17:34 PM
The sort of helmets that Russian soldiers use:


I've seen football helmets that offered more protection.

This guy could punch it a couple of times and badly deform it.  What do you think a bullet will do to it?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 15, 2022, 08:05:54 PM
I wonder if sales for Putin's state vodka are slipping...
(https://products2.imgix.drizly.com/ci-putinka-soft-vodka-3c0b55ffb5fc6325.png?auto=format%2Ccompress&ch=Width%2CDPR&fm=jpg&q=20)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 15, 2022, 10:04:30 PM
Andrii Yermak
Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine:

(https://i.redd.it/bvrc8cjgexh91.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/VIP4Dbz_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 16, 2022, 08:59:16 AM
Ammo depot in Crimea goes boom (https://www.newsweek.com/video-russian-depot-crimea-fire-large-explosions-ukraine-1733913)

Russian officials said the blasts were "localized" and "under control", adding that "no one was seriously injured" and that they don't know what caused the fire.

And I'm watching the footage and it looks like a Godzilla movie.  Quite the opposite of localized and under control.  Someone definitely got injured.  And it was definitely not an accident.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 16, 2022, 09:03:45 AM
Blasts rock temporarily-occupied Melitopol, Russian TV cut off (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/16/7363427/)

QuoteFedorov said that "however hard the Russian propaganda is trying to 'brainwash' our residents, they can't make much progress".

He added that the residents of Melitopol are holding the city's defence and the local resistance is "destroying everything that the Ruscists bring".
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 16, 2022, 09:06:49 AM
My brother shared with me war footage of a Russian vehicle driving between two other destroyed Russian vehicles.  These were fresh kills, still on fire.  This genius drives right between them and BOOM! landmine.

Who could have guessed??!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 16, 2022, 09:20:20 AM
Airbase in Crimea goes boom (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/16/7363483/)

There sure are a lot of careless smokers today!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 16, 2022, 02:16:41 PM
Russian propagandist goes boom (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/16/7363451/)

She died of her injuries from a landmine.  Specifically, a butterfly mine (https://www.indiatimes.com/explainers/news/what-are-butterfly-mines-is-russia-using-them-against-ukraine-577136.html), the sorts of mines that Russia has indiscriminately used throughout Ukraine, a country that Russia says it wishes to protect.

So it's highly likely that this is a literal case of being hoist by one's own petard.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 16, 2022, 02:30:16 PM
Scary "new" Russian weapons platform is just a toy robot dog with a rocket launcher strapped to it (https://www.newsweek.com/deadly-war-robot-showcased-russia-actually-pet-dog-bot-1733997?amp=1)

Quotethe robot dog is a modified "Go1 bot made by the Chinese company Unitree Robotics" which is "essentially a toy".

QuoteAccording to its manufacturers, Go1 bot can carry a maximum weight of three kilograms (6.6 pounds).

The Insider reports this means it can carry an RPG-26 launcher as seen in the video, but not one loaded with a rocket as this pushes the weight up to 4.7 kilograms (10.4 pounds).
It can't even use the rocket launcher.  Who designed this thing, Todd Howard?

QuoteIt is also unable to operate on rough or wet terrain and is vulnerable to hacking.
So, basically useless.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on August 17, 2022, 12:03:11 AM
(https://www.i-programmer.info/images/stories/News/2021/jun/A/unitreego1.JPG)

Jesus Fuck.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 17, 2022, 08:03:52 AM
Russian officials refuse to work in Ukraine despite offers of double pay (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-officials-refusing-work-ukraine-double-pay-1733764)

Cheapskate Dictator probably wouldn't make good on the offer, anyway.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 17, 2022, 12:04:17 PM
Russian geniuses accidentally geotag another HQ (https://mobile.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1559817046413742080)

If you ever feel useless, just be glad that you're not camo netting on a russian field HQ.

Edit - it went boom yesterday (https://www.newsweek.com/blast-may-have-killed-100-russian-soldiers-occupied-luhansk-governor-1734275), estimated 100 casualties.  Dum-dums don't live long in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 17, 2022, 12:22:19 PM
Russian base in Nova Kakhovka (Kherson region) goes boom (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/17/7363654/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 17, 2022, 11:56:54 PM
Russian soldier has second thoughts about Ukraine war (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/i-dont-see-justice-in-this-war-russian-soldier-exposes-rot-at-core-of-ukraine-invasion)

QuoteAs frustrations grew on the front, he wrote about reports of soldiers deliberately shooting themselves in order to escape the front and collect 3 million roubles (£40,542) in compensation, as well as rumours of acts of mutilation against captured soldiers and corpses.

In the interview, he said he had not personally seen the acts of abuse carried out during the war. But he described a culture of anger and resentment in the army that tears down the facade of total support for the war portrayed in Russian propaganda.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 12:25:29 AM
Do you guys remember this legendary speech (https://twitter.com/y_gudymenko) to the invading Russians very early on in the war?

His name is Yuriy Gudymenko (https://twitter.com/y_gudymenko) (it varies somewhat in print due to different romanizations of his name).  He is still alive.  He was badly wounded in June, but he's alive and well.

His video, very early in the war, correctly predicted that Bayraktars would prove nightmarish for the Russian invaders and his overall optimistic tone didn't fit the predictions on that day (the general assumption was that Ukraine would be swiftly defeated) but it does fit the present.  Truly amazing how things can change in 6 months.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 11:11:09 AM
(https://img.etimg.com/thumb/width-640,height-480,imgsize-70174,resizemode-1,msid-89631192/small-biz/entrepreneurship/satellites-are-generating-tonnes-of-data-in-space-beaming-it-back-to-earth-is-a-problem/istock-182062885.jpg)

We're always watching: Ukraine to receive new satellite data (https://defence-blog.com/iceye-signs-%D1%81ontract-to-provide-ukrainian-military-with-access-to-its-database-of-satellite-images/)

QuoteICEYE will transfer full capabilities of one of its SAR satellites already in orbit for the Government of Ukraine's use over the region. The SAR satellite will be operated by ICEYE. In addition, ICEYE will provide access to its constellation of SAR satellites, allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to receive radar satellite imagery on critical locations with a high revisit frequency.
These satellites can peer through clouds to boot!  Expect a large and sustained influx of Russian base/depot destruction.  It's HIMARS o'clock!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 11:26:28 AM
When all you have is a hammer: Putin pins hopes on organized crime organization to win war (https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-calls-in-organized-crime-syndicate-to-shake-up-failing-army-in-ukraine)

QuoteNearly six months into Russia's bloody war against Ukraine, it appears Vladimir Putin has pinned his hopes for claiming victory on a self-described "organized crime syndicate" that is now trawling prisons for cold-blooded killers and deploying mercenaries to straighten out fed-up troops.

QuotePrighozhin had visited personally on July 24 and told inmates the regular Russian military was "weakening" and "cannot cope" with the war.
Have they tried copium?  :P

Quote"I'm not afraid to say, we're an organized crime group [referring to Wagner Group] that helps the Russian army," another inmate, Alexei, quoted Prighozin as saying.

QuoteHe went on to say that, after talking to more people outside of prison about the war, he'd learned no one was getting paid the compensation they were promised and that it was all really just a "meat grinder."
Desperate.  Very desperate.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 11:56:18 AM
After cigarette-related explosions in Crimea, Russia redploys its remaining aircraft (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-urgently-redeploys-aircraft-and-helicopters-after-crimean-explosions-defense-intelligence/)

Some deploy deeper in Ukrainian Crimea (won't help), many redeploy within Russian borders (helps a lot, provided they stay there)

The part that gets me is that Ukraine both knows and reveals what's going where, which is a power move if I've ever seen one.

The Ukrainians know what's going where, who's flying them, how many times a week they take a shower (trick question, it's twice a month), and their heart rate when these guys hear the word HIMARS.  They're terrified, as they should be, because their airbase could be next.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 02:03:09 PM
Ammo depot goes boom in Belogrod (https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560322642888081411)

Everyone's favorite Russian region, voted most flammable 6 months and counting.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 02:10:00 PM
No intel for you: Ukraine destroys invader satellite communications system in the southern front  (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/18/7363831/)

Apparently also bagged an ammo depot.  Must be a day that ends in a y.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 18, 2022, 02:54:06 PM
The surprise to me is the complete lack of Russian air superiority.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 05:39:07 PM
Quote from: Cassia on August 18, 2022, 02:54:06 PMThe surprise to me is the complete lack of Russian air superiority.
Both sides deployed some serious AA early into the war (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-struggling-against-own-weapons-in-ukraine-us-general-says-2022-6) and the air force now has to either stick to friendly territory or fly dangerously close to the ground to avoid being shot down.  Curiously, the Russians haven't made destroying AA a high priority.  Definitely a mistake.  Hopefully, Ukraine gets a chance to clear out enough Russian AA to fly in relative safety.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 18, 2022, 07:03:03 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 05:39:07 PMBoth sides deployed some serious AA early into the war (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-struggling-against-own-weapons-in-ukraine-us-general-says-2022-6) and the air force now has to either stick to friendly territory or fly dangerously close to the ground to avoid being shot down.  Curiously, the Russians haven't made destroying AA a high priority.  Definitely a mistake.  Hopefully, Ukraine gets a chance to clear out enough Russian AA to fly in relative safety.
I remember Desert Storm when the US destroyed most of Saddam's anti-air, control, communications, and aircraft on the first few nights. The CNN reporters watched from the hotel balcony. All I heard about this time was that the Russians launched a giant artillery barrage. Just like WW2, LOL.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 09:44:42 PM

Desert Storm was probably the most well-planned and well-executed military operation the past 40 years.  So that's a high bar to clear.


Russia must've thought they could use paratroopers (VDV) to capture strategic sites, take cities quickly or bypass them entirely, and force Kyiv to surrender within just a few days.  Man, were they in for a surprise!

Btw, the US warned Ukraine about Hostomel.  The Ukrainians might've predicted such a move as well, because they had rapid response units paste those paratroopers and retake those airfields quickly.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 19, 2022, 12:03:31 AM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 19, 2022, 08:35:20 AM
Russian drone shot down, contains footage of their own base.  RIP (https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1560516212383162373)

At this point, they might as well just send Ukraine letters with group photos and ID attached.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 19, 2022, 08:42:07 AM
(https://i.redd.it/8mn1v9cubni91.jpg)

400 in one day, an unusually high deathtoll for the Ruscists.  Usually, it's in the high 100s or low 200s.  Someone must've commenced a special smoking operation near something combustible.

Edit - apparently at least 200 of the deaths (https://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-army-strongly-repulsed-russian-offensive-forcing-them-retreat-taramchuk-vodyane-3603622) can be attributed to failed (as usual) advances on Ukrainian battle lines.  What's unusual is that they received abnormally heavy losses in these advances.  I suppose Ukrainian intel, marksmanship, and/or weapons are improving.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 19, 2022, 09:22:52 AM
Ukraine destroys 4 S-300 AA systems and a radar station along the Southern front (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/russia_lost_four_s_300_air_defense_systems_and_a_radar_station_in_the_south_of_ukraine_operational_command_report-3937.html)

QuoteIn addition to the S-300, it was also possible to demilitarize 73 enemy personel, three tanks, one ammunition depot, and five units of armored and automotive vehicles during the day.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 19, 2022, 02:12:16 PM
Too late now:  700 Russian soldiers try to leave but not allowed to go home (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/19/7363975/)

Also, wanted for war crimes.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 19, 2022, 06:12:00 PM
Orcs ask to stop being compared to Russians (https://www.yahoo.com/video/orcs-ask-stop-comparing-them-183700415.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 19, 2022, 06:48:14 PM
Russian repair base (junkyard) in Luhansk goes boom (https://www-unian-ua.translate.goog/war/na-luganshchini-znishcheno-remontnu-bazu-okupantiv-minus-100-odinic-tehniki-pivsotni-vbitih-novini-vtorgnennya-rosiji-v-ukrajinu-11946978.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

At least 100 vehicles and 50 invaders eliminated.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 19, 2022, 08:36:15 PM
It's even funnier the second time:  Ukraine bombs Kahovka bridge again, right after it had been repaired from a previous attack (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3553763-ukraine-hits-kahovka-bridge-just-restored-by-invaders-after-previous-attack.html)

QuoteThe Ukrainian Armed Forces are the sponsors of 'fireworks' for the orcs. Our forces again hit the bridge at the Kakhovka HPP, which the Russians managed to restore. It seems that there will be no grand opening, but there's already been 'fireworks,'" the deputy wrote.
Man, I love their sense of humor!  It's so sardonic and acrid, like salt on a wound.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 19, 2022, 11:11:03 PM
Meet the Engineer: Ukrainian machinegunner abandons his position, operates it remotely to Ruscist surprise (https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1560658471866867712)

Quite the ingenious move, and great for solving practical problems.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 20, 2022, 12:42:39 AM
(https://i.redd.it/dthkteo9ari91.jpg)

Something to bear in mind when Russia talks of its good intentions in the future.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 20, 2022, 09:33:10 AM
Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol hit by  drone attack (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-black-sea-moscow-navy-fleet-drone-strike-1735387)

Quoteoccupation official Oleg Kryuchkov posted on Telegram that "attacks by small drones continue" in various locations around Crimea and urged civilians to "remain calm."

"The goal is not military but psychological," he wrote. "The explosives are minimal and not capable of inflicting significant harm."
QuoteVideos of the aftermath of the strike shared on social media showed a plume of smoke rising into the air above the building near the waterfront.
If the blast is powerful enough to create a plume of smoke visible from a significant distance, it's definitely capable of inflicting serious harm.  And striking enemy military buildings is indeed a military objective, so I have no idea what he's on about.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 20, 2022, 10:12:29 AM
Ukraine exploits Russian blunders in Crimea (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F08%2F19%2Fukraines-crimea-fightback-how-saboteurs-exploiting-enemy-blunders%2F)

QuoteBut Svetlana was not the only person to notice that soldiers had begun dumping crates of ammunition on the grounds of the farm.

The troops she spotted seemed nonchalant, far from the frontlines. One truck driver on her street corner even left the engine running as he popped to the shop for a beer.

Quote"The way they handled it - it all appeared so careless. They did everything in the open and didn't bother to make any secret of it," Svetlana said.

She saw a lorry filled with ammunition for the Grad multiple grenade launcher parked near the village shop.

"The guy went into the shop to get beer, and no one was guarding it."

QuoteLocals inside Crimea recounted stories of flagrant negligence by Russian soldiers that would make any such attack surprisingly easy to pull off.

"I often see drunk soldiers walking around," Anna, who works at a holiday resort and asked her identity to be concealed for fear of repercussions, said.

"Do you think it's difficult to trade a bottle of vodka for a grenade from them?"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 20, 2022, 11:06:29 AM
Ukraine hits invader base in Melitopol, invaders fire back ...at residential buildings, injuring a civilian (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/20/7364109/)

Either Moscow gave them civilian-seeking rockets, or they're incompetent and just panic-firing randomly.

Either way, they should know that every civilian they pass wants them dead and knows where they sleep at night.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 20, 2022, 12:37:57 PM
Emergency security measures are being put into effect in Crimea, restricting travel and notably, prohibiting smoking within a kilometer of critical military infrastructure (I assume they mean ammo depots and airfields)

If these rules are followed, then I expect these areas to be unguarded in the future.

Also, it seems that Russia will no longer be able to chalk up mysterious explosions to careless smoking and will instead have to openly admit to their people that their ammo depots and bases and warehouses are exploding because of enemy activity and that they cannot assure the security of any site within Ukraine, even those far from the front lines.

Kudos to them for having the courage to admit the truth.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 21, 2022, 09:36:31 AM
Daughter of close Putin ally killed with car bomb  (https://www.npr.org/2022/08/21/1118666607/daria-dugina-car-blast-daughter-putin-ally)

Apparently, they were supposed to be traveling together, but he made other plans.  That bomb was most likely intended for him, probably as part of a power struggle within Putin's inner circle.

Strange how people who rely on murder to grow their wealth and power so quickly resort to it on each other.  What a world they could build together! - a world safe only for one.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 21, 2022, 11:24:23 AM
The Russians are advancing (https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wtyfnd/thats_the_way_russian_commandos_are_advancing_in/)

Not fast, and disembarking might be a challenge, but they're definitely advancing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 21, 2022, 03:35:19 PM
Red on Red: Russian ethnic minorities (Buryats and Chechens) shoot at each other, significant casualties on both sides (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1561374457893195776)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 22, 2022, 07:54:47 AM
No reinforcements:  Russia unable to recruit enough people to form new unit (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/21/7364213/)

QuoteMilitary authorities in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod Oblast have failed to form a tank battalion, though the procedure has been going on since the beginning of July.

Of the required 160 people, only about 30 signed a contract for service.
Apparently, they've been trying to entice the poorest Russians into joining a new tank battallion by offering them a whopping $168 per month.  What a cheapskate dictator.

Coincidentally, these regions are the most likely to agitate if hypothetically, the war didn't go well and Russia suffered crippling sanctions to boot.  In that case, it'd make sense to premptively send them to the meatgrinder to preclude that problem.  Of course, they'd know this too, and therefore it would be in their best interests to reject a call to arms and not-too-subtle attempt to sell their lives cheaply.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 22, 2022, 08:45:08 AM
Partisans in Melitopol cut the throat of child molester  (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/21/7364239/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on August 22, 2022, 08:49:45 AM
I can't think of anything more hideous than being trapped in a burning tank, and I've seen a lot of videos of that lately.  It's seems to me tanks have gone the way of the spear and the bow.  It's like taking a knife to a gunfight.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 22, 2022, 09:47:29 AM
Tanks aren't obsolete, but they are much more vulnerable than they have been in the past.  And if all you have are tanks, and the enemy is bristling with anti-tank weapons, then things won't go well.

As always, combined arms is extremely important.  Tanks can only be part of the solution.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 22, 2022, 09:50:09 AM
Ukrainian forces destroy 20 invaders, two S-300 systems, radar in southern Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3555358-ukrainian-forces-destroy-20-invaders-two-s300-systems-radar-in-southern-ukraine.html)

I look forward to the intense air campaign from Kherson to Crimea.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on August 22, 2022, 11:39:20 AM
War should be banned worldwide, but I don't know how such a ban could be enforced.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 22, 2022, 02:22:11 PM
The Antonivskyi bridge in the Kherson region was hit again.  Fubar now.

And the Bayraktar drone that Lithuanians crowdfunded is in use.  There's footage of it getting a direct hit on a small collection of ammo while it was being unloaded by truck.  Very sudden and large boom.  Lots of Russian families are getting Ladas right now.  Or nothing.  It's kind of a crapshoot.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 22, 2022, 02:29:11 PM
Ukraine destroyed a logistics convoy carrying ammo on the Antonivskyi bridge when the bridge was hit (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1561714765575192577?cxt=HHwWgoC8qcLTqawrAAAA)

I stand corrected.  That bridge is megafubar.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 22, 2022, 02:47:57 PM
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 22, 2022, 11:39:20 AMWar should be banned worldwide, but I don't know how such a ban could be enforced.
Declare war on war?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on August 22, 2022, 03:10:01 PM
Yes. Hunt down and kill all belligerents. What? 8^D
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 22, 2022, 05:20:23 PM
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 22, 2022, 11:39:20 AMWar should be banned worldwide, but I don't know how such a ban could be enforced.
Celestial Being?  Lol
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on August 22, 2022, 05:40:07 PM
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 22, 2022, 11:39:20 AMWar should be banned worldwide, but I don't know how such a ban could be enforced.
This is the dawning of the age of Ultron (since Aquarius flopped).
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on August 22, 2022, 06:16:27 PM
Quote from: Cassia on August 22, 2022, 02:47:57 PMDeclare war on war?
Yeah, it's a paradox! ;-)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 22, 2022, 06:27:50 PM
Ammo depot in Donetsk detonates for at least 4 hours (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-ammunition-depot-exploding-in-occupied-donetsk/)

If ammo detonation lasts for more than 8 hours, see a doctor.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on August 22, 2022, 06:39:09 PM
Quote from: Cassia on August 22, 2022, 02:47:57 PMDeclare war on war?
One problem with that.  Once we declare war on something, it will never cease--witness the war on drugs and poverty and terrorism.  So, now, drugs, poverty and terrorism will always be with us in this country.  On the other hand, we must have declared war on war right after the Rev. War, because we have been at war constantly with one enemy or another ever since.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 22, 2022, 06:44:56 PM
Soon. (https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1561775821257379840)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 23, 2022, 05:05:54 AM
Russia reportedly gearing up specifically to slaughter as many civilians as possible (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/22/state-department-russia-stepping-up-against-civilians-00053229)

Most of their attacks have targeted civilians, but apparently it's their primary goal now.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on August 23, 2022, 08:27:00 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 23, 2022, 05:05:54 AMRussia reportedly gearing up specifically to slaughter as many civilians as possible (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/22/state-department-russia-stepping-up-against-civilians-00053229)

Most of their attacks have targeted civilians, but apparently it's their primary goal now.
Maybe Putin thinks civilians will give up and force the government to surrender when they realize they are being targeted.  But they were targeted before and I haven't heard Ukrainian citizens calling for the government to give in to Russia's demands.

Total surrender could lead to unbridled carnage, rape, and enslavement.  No one wants to be owned by the Russians. The fall of the Soviet Union didn't happen because occupied countries liked having the Russians there.  They were glad to see them go. I had a Czech friend whose mother went to visit relatives in Czechoslovakia, in the 1950s.  She described a horrible place to live.

Russia then was still a backwards prewar society, and there was no reason to allow their territories to live any better.  And today, there is still no reason for any country to want to be part of Russia.  Maybe someday, but not now. 
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 23, 2022, 02:23:48 PM
Ukraine destroys two command posts and two ammo depots in Kherson region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/23/7364454/)

All in all, a fairly quiet day.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 24, 2022, 12:17:07 PM
Norway and UK to deliver Super Hornet microdrones to Ukraine (https://www-regjeringen-no.translate.goog/no/aktuelt/droner/id2924942/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=no)


These things are tiny, basically undetectable, and are very good at scouting urban areas.  Squads will be able to ferret out hiding orcs easily and safely.  And they have thermal vision, so they're still effective at night.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 24, 2022, 12:27:50 PM
Russia announces the "adoption" of thousands of kidnapped kids from Mariupol (https://news.yahoo.com/russia-announces-adoption-thousands-children-104931080.html)

This sort of mass forced immigration of children fits the legal definition of genocide according to the UN.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 24, 2022, 12:33:34 PM
Ukraine is celebrating its Independence Day today, so it makes sense that temporarily-occupied Crimea and Donbas should celebrate as well.

Speakers in those areas of Ukraine have been hacked to play the Ukrainian national anthem (https://mobile.twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1562440263330476032)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 24, 2022, 11:41:51 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 25, 2022, 12:21:19 AM
Institute for the Study of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24):

QuoteSince Russian forces resumed offensive operations following a pause on July 16 Russian forces have gained about 450.84 km2 (roughly 174 square miles) of new territory, an area around the size of Andorra.  Russian forces have lost roughly 45,000 km2 of territory since March 21 (the estimated date of Russian forces' deepest advance into Ukraine), an area larger than Denmark.
Basically, the Russians are steadily losing ground.  The Russians aren't going to be gone overnight (the Kerch Bridge is far too congested for that), but they will be gone eventually.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 25, 2022, 08:48:29 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 24, 2022, 11:41:51 PM
Perhaps there will be a day when war is not normalized. A day when millions stop venerating, tolerating or fearing egocentric, narcissist dictators. That is literally...all it would take.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 25, 2022, 09:14:30 AM
Russian plot to steal nuclear power risks nuclear catastrophe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/24/revealed-russian-plan-to-disconnect-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-from-grid)

They're shelling the nuclear plant to the point that its connections to the Ukraine power grid are being severed (but they're not at all accurate, which is deeply unsettling), then planning to enact an "emergency" connection to the Russian power grid, which may or may not be performed in time to prevent disaster.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 25, 2022, 04:08:20 PM
India, which normally abstains, voted against Russia for the first time (https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-breaks-streak-of-un-abstentions-on-ukraine-votes-against-russia-122082500133_1.html)

QuoteGoing against Moscow's stance, India on Wednesday joined 12 other members of the Council to vote for inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to speak via a remote video link.

China abstained on the vote and Russia naturally voted against the invitation
I'd love to be a fly on the wall and see the glares at Putin after Zelensky speaks.  If looks could kill...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 25, 2022, 04:15:32 PM
Russian shelling disconnects Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant from grid for first time in history (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1562805492812251138)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbAzv57X0AAcduQ?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 26, 2022, 01:18:21 PM
Airborne goes airborne: Ukraine destroys Russian base, 200 invaders killed (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/26/7364870/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 26, 2022, 01:32:38 PM
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant reconnected to Ukraine's power grid (https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/26/europe/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-power-plant-grid-reconnection-intl/index.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 26, 2022, 01:39:07 PM
Ukrainian forces destroy communication and logistic hubs in Kherson region (https://mobile.twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1562985149108998149?s=21&t=Bb51W47iBSnfJlr_hgMo7Q)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 26, 2022, 03:47:16 PM
Nuclear disaster was averted, barely (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/26/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-ukraine-russia-europe-radiation-disaster)

We can't leave this stuff to chance because next time, the world might not be so lucky.  Nuclear terrorists must be demilitarized to no longer have the means to try again.

If they are allowed to try again and again, they will eventually trigger a nuclear disaster with a massive loss of human life.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 26, 2022, 09:34:15 PM

Get rekt
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 26, 2022, 09:49:55 PM
Mad Vlad has likely fired 6 generals for advancing "too slowly" (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-russia-latest-news-generals-britain-fired-b1021087.html)

Dare you to advance faster.  You'll run out of generals before Ukraine runs out of shells.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on August 27, 2022, 12:26:37 PM
And just like the American soldiers who came home wounded and disturbed, Russia and Ukraine will have suicidal veterans after the initial nightmare ends. This guy is still wearing his vest. Senseless.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbJlohvUEAUy1sC?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 27, 2022, 03:08:13 PM
Yeah, I saw one video with a Russian mother overjoyed to have her son back home - and he's missing both arms entirely.  It was as surreal as it was unnecessary - if he had stayed put, he'd be fine.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 27, 2022, 03:50:05 PM
Russia smuggles s-300 through Bosphorus to be used in Ukraine War (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russian-s-300-missile-system-slips-through-bosporus-towards-war-in-ukraine/)

A clear violation of the Montreux Convention and Turkey's sovereign control over its own waters.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 27, 2022, 03:57:28 PM
Russia lost 250 soldiers, 3 tanks, 3 armored vehicles, and 5 artillery yesterday (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/27/7364997/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on August 27, 2022, 04:24:56 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 27, 2022, 03:50:05 PMRussia smuggles s-300 through Bosphorus to be used in Ukraine War (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russian-s-300-missile-system-slips-through-bosporus-towards-war-in-ukraine/)

A clear violation of the Montreux Convention and Turkey's sovereign control over its own waters.

I hope Ukraine's army blows it to shit, tout-suite!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 28, 2022, 08:39:37 AM
Largest Russian base in Ukraine goes boom (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3559565-russian-military-base-destroyed-in-melitopol-fedorov.html)

Also, a building they were going to use for a fake referredumn was demolished.  Allow me to offer my fakest condolences!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 28, 2022, 08:50:19 AM
Russian forces in Kherson continue to degrade in effectiveness (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-27)

QuoteUkraine's Southern Operational Command stated that a 10-person Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted assault operations in Kherson Oblast on August 27, suggesting that Russian offensive capabilities in Kherson Oblast have degraded even further.

A 10-person group amounts to a squad, which is too small to act effectively as a maneuver unit. If the Southern Operational Command correctly reported the size and mission of this unit, it would indicate that Russian ground forces in Ukraine have degraded to the point that they are attempting to conduct offensive operations and echelons too low to make meaningful gains.

Also, Russia's gearing up the volunteer 3rd Army Corps to try to regain some lost momentum.  Supposedly, they're getting better gear and "abbreviated" training.  But nice gear (by Russian standards) doesn't mean anything if they lack proper intel, logistics, training, leadership, and discipline.  Orcs with nice guns are simply fertilizer temporarily carrying around nice trophies.  🌻
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 28, 2022, 09:13:11 AM
Ammo dump near Kherson goes boom (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/explosions-occurred-in-the-invaders-armaments-depot-in-kherson/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 28, 2022, 09:18:53 AM
Russian troops in Kazakhstan refuse to return to Russia out of fear of being used as cannon fodder in Ukraine (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-force-wont-return-mission-fearing-ukraine-deployment-report-1737586)

1000 troops, too.  Russia certainly needs all the help it can get in their genocidal war of aggression, though they have very little to offer in return.  It makes a lot of moral and practical sense to stay put.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 28, 2022, 11:56:18 AM
Russia uses an expensive "high-precision" missile to bomb a public toilet in Kherson region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3559651-hundreds-of-thousands-of-dollars-wasted-by-russians-to-destroy-public-toilet-in-kherson-region.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on August 28, 2022, 02:20:54 PM
Blew the shit out of Kherson, they get to say.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on August 28, 2022, 02:45:28 PM
Has Russia become a laughingstock yet?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on August 28, 2022, 03:25:04 PM
I just came across something called "nukemap" that's interesting as hell. It shows the results of the use of a nuclear weapon of various sizes. You can just Google it.
It's at the nuclear secrecy blog.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on August 28, 2022, 06:07:09 PM
ruzzist back home poses with Ukrainian skull, claims this is a war on an "idea" (that Ukraine exists) and that in a war of ideas, it sucks and he feels bad but they just have to kill anyone who holds the idea (again, the idea that Ukraine exists).

It's been said before - "If you are wondering what you would do if you lived in WW2 when the Nazi's were around... you're doing it right now.". Unfortunately, if it was up to the people... ruzzia would probably be glass by now, but it's not up to the people.

ruzzist Who Definitely Should Have Come Home In A Body Bag Being a Nazi (https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1563763961740333056)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 30, 2022, 01:12:02 PM
The Liberation of Kherson is a go!

Unfortunately, I can't share much details about it due to operational security, but early reports are very hopeful.  It's looking very much like a repeat of operations north of Kyiv.

Slava Ukraine!

Edit - I can share today's casualty figures (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/30/7365307/).  450 invader KIA, 7 tanks, 25 armoured combat vehicles, 19 artillery, 3 MLRS, 2 air defense, 1 helicopter, 29 other vehicles, etc.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 30, 2022, 01:16:59 PM
I see your inflatable s-300s and raise you wooden HIMARS

Russians blow up wooden HIMARS with expensive, very limited Kalibur missiles (https://m.censor.net/en/news/3364002/ukraine_deceived_russians_theyre_hitting_wooden_himars_with_65_million_calibers_washington_post)

They're up to 10 so far.  I think they hit so many because they mistook the wooden frames for wooden playgrounds, their primary target.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 30, 2022, 01:32:21 PM
The morale of the world's second strongest army in Ukraine: 

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on August 31, 2022, 01:15:22 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 30, 2022, 01:16:59 PMI see your inflatable s-300s and raise you wooden HIMARS

Russians blow up wooden HIMARS with expensive, very limited Kalibur missiles (https://m.censor.net/en/news/3364002/ukraine_deceived_russians_theyre_hitting_wooden_himars_with_65_million_calibers_washington_post)

They're up to 10 so far.  I think they hit so many because they mistook the wooden frames for wooden playgrounds, their primary target.

Patton's army all over again.  Looking like Ukraine set this up nicely.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 31, 2022, 08:01:23 AM
Quote from: ferdmonger on August 31, 2022, 01:15:22 AMPatton's army all over again.  Looking like Ukraine set this up nicely.
Honestly, a lot of it is very reminiscent of WWII.  Occupation camps, partisans, trenches, heavy use of tanks and artillery on both sides, war production, heavy emphasis on operational secrecy, nationalistic propaganda, etc.

Some important differences, though.  I remember, though barely, when the Gulf War was broadcast on CNN.  Well, this one is broadcast on Telegram and Twitter and TikTok of all places.  Also, a lot of it is "I heard from a friend of a friend who lives in Kyiv..."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 31, 2022, 08:14:16 AM
Invader losses today (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/31/7365474/):

Approx 350 troops
20 tanks
18 armoured combat vehicles
12 artillery systems
3 MLRS
1 air defence system
19 other vehicles

At this rate, in a couple years, a dozen babushkas could storm the Kremlin.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 31, 2022, 08:58:44 AM
Pranked: Russian soldiers blown up by own landmines while responding to fake call (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-blown-own-mines-responding-fake-call-official-1737833)

QuoteAt about 2 a.m. Monday morning, a group of Russian troops on patrol in Mariupol received reports that "Azov" fighters were hiding inside a home on the outskirts of the city

Quote"The result is one occupier minus a leg and a hospital in Donetsk. One occupier sings with Kobzon,"
Kobzon was a famous Russian singer and dead now, so the english language equivalent would be something like "sleeps with the fishes" (aka dead)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on August 31, 2022, 10:28:18 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/tJUAAM6.jpeg)

Fun fact: if they don't get a hit, they'll sign another one and try again until they do.  Satisfaction guaranteed!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on August 31, 2022, 10:37:03 PM
Kevin fucking Sorbo should just sit over the missile silo and ride the missile to its final destination, afaiac.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SoldierofFortune on August 31, 2022, 11:08:45 PM
What is more painfully saddening than the actual war fought on streets is that people watching the war on screen and following news on media really believe that they can understand the dynamics of international relations.

Btw, this is not a war, it is maybe gangsta clash in terms of its scale.lol
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on September 01, 2022, 12:40:22 AM
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on August 31, 2022, 11:08:45 PMWhat is more painfully saddening than the actual war fought on streets is that people watching the war on screen and following news on media really believe that they can understand the dynamics of international relations.

Btw, this is not a war, it is maybe gangsta clash in terms of its scale.lol
"What is funny people think they can understand this conflict... now let me explain how I understand it better."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 01, 2022, 07:59:16 AM
Kherson counteroffensive: US says Russian units are falling back (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-u-s-says-some-russian-units-are-falling-back-in-kherson)

This is actually news from a couple of days ago, but it couldn't be discussed in detail because of the need for secrecy.  But essentially, the first line of defense was breached in at least 3 places by Ukrainian forces and many Russian soldiers were forced to retreat from their positions.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 01, 2022, 08:24:54 AM
(https://i.redd.it/tw710efvn7l91.jpg)

Ukrainian forces continue to inflict crushing losses.  I was joking earlier about babushkas being able to storm the Kremlin soon, but now I think I might be onto something.

No modern military can lose 20+ tanks, 30+ armored vehicles, and 20+ artillery per day and continue to be combat effective.  That's like almost the entire Afghanistan conflict per month.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 01, 2022, 08:46:07 AM
Top Russian oil tycoon dies after falling out of a hospital window in Moscow (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chairman-russian-oil-producer-lukoil-dies-after-falling-hospital-window-source-2022-09-01/)

Hmmm...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 01, 2022, 09:57:37 AM
Yeah, I bet he's "deeply mourned by his thousands of employees."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on September 01, 2022, 10:21:13 AM
Quote from: Unbeliever on September 01, 2022, 09:57:37 AMYeah, I bet he's "deeply mourned by his thousands of employees."
I keep remembering a scene from the Hudsucker Proxy, where all employees are ordered to partake in a moment of silence in remembrance of their CEO who jumped out of the top story window that morning, and were then informed that their moment of silence would be deducted from their pay.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 01, 2022, 12:40:55 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 08:11:43 AM
(https://i.redd.it/zvigz4171al91.jpg)

Somehow, I think we'll be okay.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 08:20:59 AM
Ukraine air force strikes targets along the southern front (https://glavcom-ua.translate.goog/country/incidents/zsu-na-pivdni-znishchili-pjat-skladiv-i-punkt-upravlinnja-okupantiv-872371.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

Along with the usual targets of troops, tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, they also hit 5 ammo warehouses, a drone control center, and a ferry crossing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 08:51:28 AM
(https://i.redd.it/t1u23hbcgfl91.jpg)

Miming competence
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 09:01:52 AM
St Petersburg authorities plan to use homeless in Ukraine war (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/st-petersburg-authorities-launch-local-homeless-recruiting-plan-send-them-to-war-in-ukraine/)

Previously, St Petersburg officials have been unable to recruit enough volunteers, even after offering sign-up bonuses and waiting for months.  Also, the most poor and remote regions of Russia are pretty much depleted, even with Russia's new relaxed standards.

The war is going so well for Russia that they're running low on bodies to throw into the meat grinder.

And you just know that homeless people plus "abbreviated" training and less-than-stellar equipment are going to be top-notch soldiers. /s

The Ukrainian soldiers who have already seen months of intense fighting and received some foreign training on their shiny new western weapons are going to eat them for breakfast.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on September 02, 2022, 10:57:47 AM
Yikes!  Fox News says we are "uncomfortably low" on ammo. Where can we ever get any more?  Actually, I think we are just rotating our stock like the grocery stores.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 02, 2022, 11:52:37 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 08:11:43 AM(https://i.redd.it/zvigz4171al91.jpg)

Somehow, I think we'll be okay.

I'll pray for us.

OK, that's done, so we'll be fine now...I hope...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on September 02, 2022, 12:20:49 PM
If this were true Faux News certainly wouldn't told about it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on September 02, 2022, 12:21:37 PM
Maybe we could buys some ammo from the teenagers around here. They seem to have plenty.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Mike Cl on September 02, 2022, 01:33:15 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 08:11:43 AM(https://i.redd.it/zvigz4171al91.jpg)

Somehow, I think we'll be okay.
Don't think the munitions industry is complaining.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 07:03:56 PM
Ukraine's Drones Are Back—And Blowing Up Russian Artillery In The South (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/02/ukraines-drones-are-back-and-blowing-up-russian-artillery/?sh=29068b686b8f)

Ukraine has methodically been destroying air defense in the south and its strikes in Crimea scared away the brave, civilian-bombing Russian pilots, who were forced to redeploy elsewhere, mostly in eastern Ukraine or Russian territory.

The end result is that Ukrainian drones can operate with less risk near Kherson, where they've been very effective in clearing away Russian artillery, logistics vehicles, and invaders (hence the noticeably elevated causality figures recently).  Ukraine released footage of two such strikes recently.  The results were very impressive.  Direct hit, utter annihilation.  10/10.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 07:15:08 PM
In its latest aid package, Finland donates military aid worth €8.3 to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSO9N2XQ01K)

Contents were not disclosed for security reasons.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 07:29:38 PM
Ukrainian forces destroy 3 artillery, an ammo warehouse, and chase off a company of Russian soldiers (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/2/7365868/) (estimated 130-150 soldiers)

QuoteThe Russian wounded were taken to medical facilities near Borozenske, Kherson Oblast. Due to the inappropriate level of medical care, most of the wounded died from their injuries."
I don't have the article but I remember reading about Russia opening up a new field hospital in the Kherson area because the others were too overbooked and I was shocked by the minimal medical care, which was much lower than even I expected.

Evidently, a considerable portion of the losses are more from inadequate medical care than from being killed outright.  That might be driving up casualty figures as well.

QuoteThe Ukrainian General Staff also reported that the Russian company, which had been based in the "Zahublenyi svit" sports club, left Kherson and took looted property in 5 tented trucks to temporarily occupied Crimea.
Based in a sports club, looting galore, abandons position when things get difficult in "tented trucks".  A lot to unpack there.  My fervent hope is that they run into a landmine or chechens under orders to shoot deserters on sight before they make it to the relative safety of Crimea with their ill-gotten gains.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 11:16:43 PM
A lone, shrill voice containing bitter tears (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning): The Kremlin cries about US coming to the aid of invaded country (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/2/7365855/)

Perhaps Russia should abandon its land-grab ambitions now as a gesture of goodwill?  That would effectively end US involvement.

Anyone who has been watching this conflict brewing with even a sliver of insight understands that Russia set the stage for the very conditions that it is now complaining about.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 03, 2022, 09:47:11 AM
(https://i.redd.it/pssnp2nc9ll91.png)

Hard at work!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 03, 2022, 10:00:17 AM
Comrade, where's our tank?   2 Bayraktar drones destroy Russian military equipment worth $26.5 million in 3 days (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1565990986932789250)

8 T-72 tanks, 1 IFV, and multiple howitzers.  Not bad for just two drones over the course of a long weekend!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 03, 2022, 10:08:33 AM
Russia's been building a new unit called the 3rd Army Corps to reinforce their forces in Ukraine.  This unit has been intentionally held back from fighting in order to be better trained and equipped than normal.  At least, that's the official statement.

Well, it turns out that the real reason is that 40% of their equipment doesn't work (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1566018995349749763).  What's more is that these are soviet-era hand-me-downs and the "better equipment" thing was a lie.  They'll be lucky to simply have enough gear to function, and that'll take more time to scrounge up.  I hope there's nothing urgent going on in the meantime!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 03, 2022, 10:17:23 AM
The Russians lose another SAM system near Kherson (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/invaders-lost-pantsir-s1-sam-in-the-kherson-region/), weakening their air defense and allowing Bayraktar drones to operate more freely.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 03, 2022, 10:24:13 AM
Ukraine destroys convoy headed for port city of Berdiansk (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/3/7365912/), one vehicle was supposedly transporting bodies of slain Russian soldiers before it was destroyed

Blown up twice, that'll do wonders for morale.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on September 03, 2022, 01:07:08 PM
Quote from: Dark Lightning on September 02, 2022, 12:20:49 PMIf this were true Faux News certainly wouldn't told about it.
In hindsight, I disagree - they would be blaring it in microphones across the world just because it would help our enemies.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 03, 2022, 03:59:34 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 03, 2022, 11:33:01 PM
Russian father joins army after his son was killed in Ukraine, returns home disillusioned (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-soldier-father-son-ukraine-war/32015966.html)

It's notable that he talks of shared history and familial ties between Ukrainians and Russians and his disbelief and dismay at fighting fellow slavs.  This war isn't just colonial aggression, it's also fratricide.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 04, 2022, 11:21:32 AM
(https://preview.redd.it/y4ii87gfltl91.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=7595753fcba3937a7c04a658b51824bb72f9cadb)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 04, 2022, 11:27:34 AM
Ukrainian forces managed to "shoot down" a Russian plane without firing a shot (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/4/7366025/)

How?  By turning on the backlight radar.  This triggered warnings in the cockpit.  The Russian pilot panicked and ejected.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 04, 2022, 01:03:42 PM
(https://i.redd.it/kaxjubdb3ul91.jpg)

#CheapskateDictactor
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on September 04, 2022, 04:38:25 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 03, 2022, 11:33:01 PMRussian father joins army after his son was killed in Ukraine, returns home disillusioned (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-soldier-father-son-ukraine-war/32015966.html)

It's notable that he talks of shared history and familial ties between Ukrainians and Russians and his disbelief and dismay at fighting fellow slavs.  This war isn't just colonial aggression, it's also fratricide.
That was very telling. He went to revenge his son and came back saying "they (the Ukrainians) are our brothers". Did you see the "honor guard" idiot @ 2:14 with the jammed rifle, pointing it at the old ladies? What a joke.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 04, 2022, 05:29:47 PM
Putin is reportedly finally ready to talk to Zelensky.  About time.

But if he intended to freeze this conflict at its high water mark, he's a couple months too late.  Russia has steadily been losing ground, and looks like it will soon lose Kherson oblast and shortly thereafter, Crimea.

Also, Putin is still shelling civilians and the nuclear power plant, which speaks volumes.  Not the sort of thing peace-loving people do.  Quite the opposite.

If I were Zelensky, I would ask for more gestures of goodwill, small things that are not too difficult, like prisoner exchanges, the return of kidnapped children, ceasefire at the nuclear plant.

As for calling off the war, I don't think Zelensky should be in any big hurry, certainly not to accept any Russian troop presence in Ukraine, which would continue to brutalize/genocide Ukrainian populations and serve as staging areas for the next war.  In fact, I would probably insist on terms that I know Russia wouldn't accept, like reparations or demilitarization.  This would give time for Ukraine to liberate Ukrainian cities and push Russian soldiers back to Russia, where they belong.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 05, 2022, 09:27:09 AM
(https://preview.redd.it/8h74anwqczl91.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=065515be7b485e504b35ea13101f3db1a514a75c)

One more day 'till the big 50K!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 05, 2022, 09:30:16 AM
"A Russian-installed official in Ukraine's Kherson region said on Monday that plans for a referendum on joining Russia had been "paused" due to the security situation" (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kherson-referendum-plans-paused-due-security-situation-tass-cites-russian-2022-09-05/)

Gee, that's a shame.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 05, 2022, 11:57:59 AM
Russian Soldiers Riot, Refuse To Fight Over Lack of Supplies (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-riot-refuse-fight-ukraine-war-1739773?utm_source=Flipboard&utm_medium=App&utm_campaign=Partnerships)

QuoteSoldiers with the 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps rioted, and refused to further participate in Russian President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine.

QuoteISW previously reported that the DNR redeployed the 109th, 113th, and 125th regiments to northwestern Kherson in late July, and the 109th regiment reportedly surrendered on the first day of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
lol day 1 surrender.  Things are going great for Putin.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 05, 2022, 12:21:17 PM
Russian soldiers get catfished, leak the location of their base, which gets blown up (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-hackers-create-fake-profiles-russia-troops-share-location-ft-2022-9)

Does the Russian language not have something similar to "loose lips sink ships"?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on September 05, 2022, 01:20:50 PM
Putin, looking pretty mousey, hanging onto his chair..
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on September 05, 2022, 01:34:37 PM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagner-group-accused-of-disemboweling-women-in-the-central-african-republic

I mean this in the most dispassionate, non-anger filled way...

I hope Ukraine finds these men, castrates them and chokes them to death with their own STD-infested micro-dicks.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 05, 2022, 02:44:15 PM
Yeah, Wagner could all die and it would make the world a happier place.

Lately, they've been complaining bitterly about lack of air support and artillery in Ukraine so maybe a lot of their comrades have deduced that as well.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 05, 2022, 03:03:18 PM
What could possibly be motivating them to be committing such atrocities!?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 06, 2022, 09:35:43 AM
(https://i.redd.it/2t8bu8n5g8m91.jpg)

So much shade that I want to take a nap!

NY Times article they're referencing (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 06, 2022, 09:50:33 AM
Putin forces Russian 1st Army Corps to sign 3-year contracts (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_forces_conscripts_of_the_1st_army_corps_to_sign_contracts_and_fight_for_another_three_years-4127.html)

At the rate Ukraine is chewing through Russian troops, every last one of them will be dead before they complete their contracts.  Might as well give 'em a shovel.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 06, 2022, 09:55:05 AM
(https://i.redd.it/7adv9qsmx7m91.jpg)

Russian doctrine has somehow become more reliant on UAVs and less able to field them.  Very strange thought process they have going on in Russian command.  I suspect that most of those medals are made out of either lead or mercury.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on September 06, 2022, 10:32:52 AM
Russia sanctions 25 more Americans, including Sean Penn, Ben Stiller (https://13wham.com/news/entertainment/russia-sanctions-25-more-americans-including-sean-penn-ben-stiller-gina-raimondo-mark-kelly-kyrsten-sinema-kevin-cramer-mike-rounds-rick-scott-pat-toomey-permanently-banned)

Is it just me, or is this childish? Also a bit delusional, like anyone want to go to their country. You don't get to go into the lion's mouth, Ben Stiller.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 06, 2022, 10:41:21 AM
Hell, being sanctioned by Russia should be considered a mark of distinction.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 06, 2022, 10:52:16 AM
Yeah, somehow I think Ben Stiller will get by.  If anything, stuff like this just gives him a temporary boost more than anything else.

Imo, Russia's actions ceased to be rational months ago.  It's all about lashing out any way they can and trying to intimidate/threaten others any way they know how because that's all they know how to do.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 06, 2022, 01:28:05 PM
Want a smoke?  Partisans engage in Psy-Ops campaign against invaders (https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1567136758407565313)

Across temporarily occupied territory, posters have appeared showing explosions and occupier's coordinates

Occupiers must choose to either move or risk an unexpected visit from HIMARS.  Over and over and over again.  Until one day, something unexpected happens and there's no longer a need for posters because there's no one to address.

Edit - Occupier cars have also been exploding recently.  Must be careless smoking.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 07, 2022, 01:21:14 AM
Russian Soldiers 'Demoralized And Shaken,' Use 'Defective' Missiles' To Attack Ukraine (https://www.ibtimes.com/russian-soldiers-demoralized-shaken-use-defective-missiles-attack-ukraine-3609658)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 07, 2022, 11:20:52 AM
I'm happy to report that Ukrainian forces have made significant progress towards Kherson, though specifics can't be disclosed at the moment due to operational security.  Suffice it to say that at this pace, Kherson will definitely be liberated by the end of the month.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 07, 2022, 11:42:21 AM
(https://preview.redd.it/jngrdck4rdm91.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=2a9f3ac0033e26d9b7671d407aa03a26e13b0fc3)

Jeez, I'm floored by the tank losses.  20 tanks a day, every single day.  That's 7300 a year.  For comparison, there are roughly 73000 tanks in the world. (At its current pace, Ukraine could chew through 10% of the world's tanks in a year, which is amazingly ferocious for such a relatively modest country)

Not all of those tanks are functional, though obviously, no country is going to give details about that.  On paper, Russia has (or rather, had) ~12,420 tanks total and >1,000 of them are visually confirmed to have been destroyed with Ukraine plausibly claiming another thousand.

Considering that Russia's already scrapping the bottom of the barrel with T-62s complete with cope cages, it's safe to assume that they don't have much left in reserve, because they would've sent it already.  And they're quickly burning through (pun unintended but not inaccurate) what they have left.

Bottom line: this conflict will not last for years and years.  Russia simply doesn't have the reserves to keep it up that long and can't replenish nearly quickly enough.  Somehow, major fighting will be over in months, maybe a year, if that.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on September 07, 2022, 11:49:01 AM
I'm still concerned that we haven't seen the muskovite themselves fighting, other than Wagner.

But perhaps Wagner really was all the military they had.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 07, 2022, 12:54:29 PM
Quote from: Shiranu on September 07, 2022, 11:49:01 AMI'm still concerned that we haven't seen the muskovite themselves fighting, other than Wagner.

But perhaps Wagner really was all the military they had.
Russia has tapped almost all of the manpower it has available to it without mobilizing.  If they mobilize, they'd essentially be publicly admitting that the special operation has failed.  Such a move also has dire consequences for Putin's rule (and life).  Besides, it's unlikely that they can equip much more troops, as the 3rd Corps fiasco is showing.

As a result, Ukraine has mobilized and Russia has not.  In a war of attrition, Russia is fighting at a disadvantage before cards are even dealt.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 07, 2022, 03:33:36 PM
Ukraine launches a surprise counterattack in Kharkiv region and encircles Russian forces (https://www.theguardian.com/global/2022/sep/07/ukraine-launches-surprise-counterattack-kharkiv-region-russia)

QuoteAn official representing the Russian-controlled Donetsk People's Republic said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces "encircled" Balakliia, an eastern town of 27,000 people situated between Kharkiv and Russian-occupied Izium.

"Today, the Ukrainian armed forces, after prolonged artillery preparation ... began an attack on Balakliia," Daniil Bezsonov said on Telegram.

"At this time, Balakliia is in operative encirclement and within the firing range of Ukrainian artillery. All approaches are cut off by fire," he said, adding that a successful Ukrainian offensive would threaten Russian forces in Izium, a strategically important town that Russia has been using for its own offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Oh no, it'd be such a shame if Russia lost Izium, too.

QuoteWithout specifying any locations, the Luhansk regional governor, Serhiy Haidai, told Ukrainian television on Wednesday that a "counterattack is under way and ... our forces are enjoying some success. Let's leave it at that."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 07, 2022, 04:58:16 PM
In probably related news, Ukrainian forces captured an alleged Russian lieutenant colonel (https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-troops-capture-russian-army-175100801.html) near Kharkiv, which is fairly high up the food chain.  Definitely a significant loss for Russian forces in the area.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 07, 2022, 07:34:47 PM
Putin says Russia has "lost nothing" since the war began back in February (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/7/7366424/)

At first, I thought that this is an obvious lie.  But it is the truth if and only if he considers Russian lives to be nothing.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 07, 2022, 07:46:34 PM
How can you lose anything if you never had anything to begin with?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 08, 2022, 01:41:12 AM
Apparently, some Russian forces tried to escape the encirclement near Kharkiv by dressing like civilians and driving civilian cars.  80s action movie tactics, lol.  I guess they thought Ukrainian forces would never think that Russians would try to escape the completely encircled Russian position.  So yeah, they were captured.  Just as well that they ditched the military uniforms, they're not going to need them again for a long time.

Ukrainian forces also captured something of value: 2 electronic warfare units (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/07/ukrainian-troops-capture-two-russian-electronic-warfare-units-other-equipment-in-kharkiv-oblast/).  I assume they jam Russian mines within a small radius to allow Russian forces to freely travel through an otherwise deadly mine field.  Pretty smart.  The only wrinkle is that if you no longer control the jammers, you no longer control the minefield.  Hope they kept everyone in the loop.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 08, 2022, 08:45:15 AM
Ukrainian forces denazify a whopping 640 invaders in 24 hours (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/8/7366560/)

Another banner day.  Attrition is destroying Putin's dream of conquest.  Every day, his dream becomes more uncertain and further from reality.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 08, 2022, 10:20:11 AM
Norway donates Hellfire missiles to Ukraine (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/08/norway-will-transfer-160-hellfire-missiles-to-ukraine/), already there and ready to be used.  Russian forces should expect record high temps before winter.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 08, 2022, 10:23:33 AM
I see that Putin, along with other officials, fell asleep at a meeting about tourism. He was apparently quite fatigued, poor guy.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on September 08, 2022, 10:27:51 AM
Death of a Russian T90. I never worked on or designed any weapon systems, but I did interview with General Dynamics Electric Boat division and turned down the offer. Later, I did do some work on a military radio design, and I am OK with that. It's a decision engineers make.

I screen-captured a frame where the exposure was relatively long enough to capture both the incoming missile and the resulting explosion. Truely must be frightening to be a tank crew member, especially for the Russian invaders as the very portable NATO tank killers work very well. And just think there was a Ukrainian drone up there just watching that tank operate. Tanks must be deployed strategically to be effective.
(https://i.ibb.co/gvzZ6td/tank.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 08, 2022, 10:30:04 AM
Russian Z-propagandist laments "We have already lost" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/08/we-have-already-lost-far-right-russian-bloggers-slam-kremlin-over-army-response)

Quote"The war in Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia," Igor Girkin, a far-right nationalist, grumbled in a video address to his 430,000 followers on Telegram on Monday. "We have already lost, the rest is just a matter of time."

QuoteThe Russian government has not published its own losses since 25 March, when it gave a total of 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded.
lmao.  They lose more than that over a long weekend.  If trends continue, maybe a normal weekend.

QuoteInstead, since the onset of the war, the Russian defence ministry has repeatedly issued improbable statements about its successes on the battlefield, boasting of having destroyed more than 40 western-made Himars rocket launchers and claiming to have decimated the Ukrainian air force.

State television, the most popular source of information in Russia, similarly continues to paint a rosy picture of Russian successes in Ukraine.
Good.  I hope they continue to paint a false picture.  People who don't know the reality of the situation have great difficulty changing it.  (the exact reason why Moscow keeps their domestic situation from the populace)  Sooner or later, the truth gets out and it's going to come down on them like a ton of bricks.  Then shaky morale becomes utterly broken morale and this whole thing will be over.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 08, 2022, 01:51:37 PM
St Petersburg municipal deputies call on state duma to charge Putin woth treason and remove him from office (https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/08/st-petersburg-municipal-deputies-call-for-russias-state-duma-to-accuse-putin-of-treason/)

Quote"We believe that President Putin's decision to launch an EWS is detrimental to the security of Russia and its citizens. In this connection, we ask you, as a member of the State Duma, to propose charges of treason against the Russian president to remove him from office," the appeal reads.

The texts also mentions the war is killing "young able-bodied" Russian citizens, the Russian economy is suffering, NATO is expanding eastwards and Ukraine is getting new weapons (although Putin called one of the goals of the invasion the "demilitarisation" of the country).
EWS is presumably the cyrillic acronym for Special Military Operation.

And they're not wrong, Putin's gamble with Russian lives has resulted in precisely the opposite of Putin's stated goals.

Western Europe is more united and influencial than ever, countries are begging to join the EU and/or NATO, and Ukraine is more militarized than ever, with an eclectic blend of seemingly every major power's military arsenal.  Russia is now a rapidly waning power and Ukraine is rising - exactly what Moscow feared the most.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on September 08, 2022, 03:57:36 PM
^ Gonna be a bunch of deputies falling out of windows, soon...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on September 08, 2022, 04:48:52 PM
Quote from: Dark Lightning on September 08, 2022, 03:57:36 PM^ Gonna be a bunch of deputies falling out of windows, soon...
If they are feeling bold enough to say this, perhaps Putin has lost the aristocracy.

I'm curious to see where this goes - Putin has seem in increasingly poorer and poorer health, and men in his profession haven't historically retired so peacefully in Russia.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 08, 2022, 05:20:04 PM
I don't think "retired peacefully" can even be said in Russian...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 08, 2022, 07:32:00 PM
Intercepted phone call: Russian soldier says he thinks Ukrainians figured out his location from his cell phone.  He guessed right.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 08, 2022, 07:36:38 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on September 09, 2022, 08:07:16 AM
If you call your wife to tell her the enemy is targeting the location of your phone, then stop calling your wife.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 09, 2022, 09:33:07 AM
Russian troops desert (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/9/7366719/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 09, 2022, 09:36:44 AM
(https://i.redd.it/quowh41vcsm91.jpg)

650, a new record
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 09, 2022, 10:33:38 AM
Institute of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-8)

QuoteUkrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.
I've seen footage lately of yet another failed river crossing, complete with submerged tanks, so it seems history is repeating itself.

QuoteMilbloggers warned about an impending Ukrainian counteroffensive northwest of Izyum for days prior to Ukrainian advances, and some milbloggers noted that Russian command failed to prepare for "obvious and predictable" Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Initial reports had Ukraine with "tactical surprise" which struck me as odd because Ukraine publically announced its counteroffensive.  Evidently, Russian forces either had bad intel or they were in such a poor state of readiness that they couldn't engage effectively.

QuoteSome milbloggers complained that the Russian MoD did not seize the information space in a timely manner to prevent the spread of Ukrainian social media on Russian Telegram channels, leading to distrust among Russian audiences.
Who could have guessed that lying leads to distrust?  LOL
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 09, 2022, 05:17:04 PM
Kharkiv counteroffensive over the last 3 days (https://twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1568227635641331713)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcNvqmWXgAEMv7o?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 09, 2022, 05:41:19 PM
Russians donate ammo to Ukraine in a gesture of goodwill (https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1568180213758009344?s=20&t=a00NYsHXLci0XqLOhidPQw)

Ukraine should be polite and send some back.  🌻
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 09, 2022, 06:27:52 PM
Russia's 237th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment no longer exists (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/9/7366818/)

All soldiers are either dead or wounded, and many of the wounded are seriously wounded.

QuoteThe unit has no commanders and communications left.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 09, 2022, 07:01:30 PM
Mysterious explosions in Belgorod (https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/sabotage-or-accident-strange-blasts-occur-in-russias-belgorod.html)

Voted Russia's most flammable region 6 months and counting
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on September 09, 2022, 08:04:51 PM
Man, they'd better get a handle on this illicit smoking soon, or Russia is going to look really, really foolish.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on September 09, 2022, 09:43:52 PM
Quote from: ferdmonger on September 09, 2022, 08:04:51 PMMan, they'd better get a handle on this illicit smoking soon, or Russia is going to look really, really foolish.

Spoiler- they already look pretty foolish. 8^) I'll readily admit that we have some seriously stupid shit going on in the US, but Russia is starting to make North Korea look sane. Not a good sign. What's the over/under for Putin "jumping" out a window or glowing in the dark from Polonium poisoning?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: ferdmonger on September 09, 2022, 10:07:08 PM
Just hoping that Vlad doesn't go ape-shit over him losing his three day 'special operation'.

He must at this point understand that he has lost on the world stage.  Please don't exacerbate your failure by attacking more civilian targets.       
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 10, 2022, 09:33:38 AM
(https://i.redd.it/ryxymxuxewm91.jpg)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 10, 2022, 09:36:33 AM
Ukrainian counterattack near Kharkiv gathers pace, threatens Russian supply lines and isolates Izyium (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-breaks-front-line-east-nearing-key-town-89636777)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 10, 2022, 09:59:53 AM
Massive artillery strike in Luhansk region wipes out up to 400 invaders, 100 vehicles (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/10/occupied-kreminna-luhansk-oblast-saw-several-ukrainian-strikes-oblast-head-serhii-haidai/)

Slava Ukrayini!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 10, 2022, 05:40:44 PM
I can't pretend to fully understand this, but  Russian forces idiotically decided to put reactive armor on its Infantry Fighting Vehicles without properly reinforcing them first (https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russians_apply_era_modules_for_bmp_2_ifvs_why_it_is_hazardous_for_the_crew_photo-4173.html), which evidently not only won't work correctly, but presents a huge safety risk to the crew.

Essentially, if the anti-tank missile doesn't kill them, their own reactive armor will (Newton's third law)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 10, 2022, 07:36:45 PM
(https://i.redd.it/hmb6d4xtx4n91.jpg)

(https://i.redd.it/wqqtzd9pr3n91.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 08:55:51 AM
Institute the Study of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10)

QuoteUkrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture the city of Izyum itself in the next 48 hours if they have not already done so. The liberation of Izyum would be the most significant Ukrainian military achievement since winning the Battle of Kyiv in March.

QuoteKremlin-sponsored TV propagandists offered a wide range of confused explanations for Ukrainian successes ranging from justifications that Russian forces are fighting against the entire Western Bloc, to downplaying the importance of Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCS) in Kupyansk.[4] The Kremlin's propagandists appeared unusually disorganized in their narratives, with some confirming the liberation of certain towns and others refuting such reports.
Ha!  They sound a lot like Fox News.  Suspiciously so...

QuoteRussian milbloggers condemned the Russian MoD for remaining quiet, choosing self-isolation, and distorting situational awareness in Russia.[5] One milblogger even stated that the Russian MoD's silence is a betrayal of Russian servicemen that fought and still fight in Ukraine.[6]
The reward for lying is distrust.

QuoteSome milbloggers noted that occupation administrations are disoriented and lack initiative.[10] The Ukrainian counteroffensive is effectively paralyzing the Russian occupation leadership that is likely afraid for its fate.
Good.  They should wake up and go to sleep every day with the same fear that the residents of Mariupol have known.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 09:01:34 AM
Increased US-Ukraine intel sharing key to Ukrainian counteroffensive plan (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/10/us/politics/ukraine-military-intelligence.html?unlocked_article_code=sLj8glZaZPmAnG257kPfmRnFp9InTQI1QAh2_sSziiV-E5wPPkrMFHgRC6gtvVzKHwEcSAHyS8ElvENBqcydpZ3BTrHvej6SEgezWlCI1QJlg4NYXEctMLCNLvLMUfEt9U9g73DHqk76WH3QZo5oQYvJGHfD-Y3U6MfdzOOaLH7ft4cHwePVKv5tElLI_yheFGhZ6LJ2ywMTrzFXztqHdYvav6PIy52yDLsjESo6syrFrvz8BT1sisQ3dkVxasvLGlA5TxbnTh-MFURvgle4tZi4ILcHZenOz5SnnIRHKiRMp0qzSmD0m75gqnOXEAQKML8NInZv1DsRu3VZ1YHgprBFdJrjaQXQghal&smid=share-url)

QuoteSenior Ukrainian officials stepped up intelligence sharing with their American counterparts over the summer as they began to plan the counteroffensive that allowed them to make dramatic gains in the northeast in recent days, a shift that allowed the United States to provide better and more relevant information about Russian weaknesses, according to American officials.
Knowledge Is Power.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 12:10:03 PM
Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant shuts down safely (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-8838067037a8521e3bc764435144d8b7?taid=631d7ccd488e6d0001fb7a15&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter)

Looks like Ukraine will no longer be threatened with the prospect of nuclear meltdown.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 02:01:01 PM
(https://i.redd.it/8frkp8dsv4n91.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 02:56:59 PM
Red on Red:  Russian fighter likely shot down by Russian AA over Crimea (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-had-probably-shot-down-their-own-su-34-in-crimea/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on September 11, 2022, 06:28:10 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 02:56:59 PMRed on Red:  Russian fighter likely shot down by Russian AA over Crimea (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-had-probably-shot-down-their-own-su-34-in-crimea/)
I remember an engineer back in the 80s say he worked on improving an Egyptian (Soviet design) Identify-Friend-or-Foe-System (IFF) and how it was unreliable crap. Basically, when a plane shows up on a missile system's RADAR, the IFF system pings the intruder and if it doesn't reply with a pre-arranged code, it's missiles away. He said instead of using a synchronous clocked design to verify the pulse trains, the circuitry relied on the propagation delays of logic gates; a characteristic that is so variable with temperature it is basically useless. It's like bad digital design 101.

This is the same country that landed image transmitting probes on Venus. I don't get it.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 10:59:40 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 11:06:02 PM
Russia loses roughly a battalion every day as Ukrainian counterattacks accelerate (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/11/the-russian-army-is-losing-a-battalion-every-day-as-ukrainian-counterattacks-accelerate/?sh=56b56d9d7628)

QuoteThe Russian army is losing at least a battalion's worth of vehicles and men a day as twin Ukrainian counteroffensives roll back Russian territorial gains in eastern and southern Ukraine. That's hundreds of casualties and scores of vehicle write-offs every day.

These losses are catastrophic for Russia. The Russian army barely was sustaining a little over 100 under-strength battalions in Ukraine before Kyiv's forces counterattacked in the south on Aug. 30 and in the east eight days later.

In just under two weeks of brutal fighting, the Ukrainians have destroyed, badly damaged or captured 1,200 Russian tanks, fighting vehicles, trucks, helicopters, warplanes and drones, according to the Ukrainian general staff. Independent analysts scouring social media for photos and videos have confirmed nearly 400 of the Russian losses.

Around 5,500 Russian troops have died in Ukraine since Aug. 29, according to Ukrainian officials. It's possible the Ukrainians are overstating the death toll, but it's worth noting that recent U.S. estimates of Russian losses have been only slightly lower than Ukrainian estimates.

To put these numbers into perspective, Russian losses in Ukraine have swelled by a tenth in around 10 days—in a war that's 200 days old. The rate of Russian casualties and vehicle write-offs doubled then tripled as the Ukrainians launched their counterattacks.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 07:45:38 AM
ISW: Ukraine's recapture of Izyum puts stop to Russia's plans in Donetsk Oblast (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569182472792940546?s=20&t=jp8VX4L-Kf2EiH6NGchtgQ)

The U.S. think tank said that Russia can no longer advance on Bakhmut or Donetsk from the north, meaning any advances towards the cities "have lost any real operational significance."
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 08:05:18 AM
Ukraine pushes Russian troops back over the border in Kharkiv region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/12/7367082/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 01:44:14 PM
(https://i.redd.it/w3l8mci98fn91.jpg)

This guy is planning on taking Kharkiv, then Kyiv, LOL.  I don't think he could take a couple of kids in soccer.  Definitely not in those loafers.  As the Starks say, Winter Is Coming!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 01:53:29 PM
Mad Vlad is displeased:  Russian army commander fired after just 2 weeks on the job (https://news.yahoo.com/putin-fires-army-commander-just-001352190.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 01:57:29 PM

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 02:06:06 PM
Russian propagandist says Russian generals should be shot (https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1569012074881114112?s=20&t=NUHXPAinWXDl0QmTCiO1rA)

I agree!  Fight each other as much as you want.  The world is watching and laughing!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on September 12, 2022, 02:43:26 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 01:57:29 PM
Oh, damn... looks like he flew right through the other jet's wash. Turbulence is not your friend.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 03:33:17 PM
Yeah, the comments say he should have kept straight as the other plane banked and then banked to rejoin the formation.  That way he would've avoided flying right into the other jet's wash and then stalling out and crashing.  Hindsight is 20/20.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 12, 2022, 03:41:24 PM
Well, in this case hindsight is blind...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 10:49:40 PM
Mysterious death of Russian energy exec (https://www.newsweek.com/putins-key-man-artic-found-dead-after-falling-overboard-1742218)

Fell overboard in the Arctic Sea.  So strange.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 13, 2022, 07:04:42 AM
A slew of countries no longer accept Russian visas (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1569614310003060736): Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 13, 2022, 07:17:29 AM
In temporarily occupied territories, invaders created fake curriculum that sought to justify invasion and instill Russian "values" on kids, many of whom had lost a parent (or more) to Russian aggression.

When invaders retreated, they left these "teachers" behind, who were promptly arrested by the authorities (https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1569586731573301252)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 13, 2022, 07:24:09 AM
Ukraine liberating more territory, capturing invaders (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-kharkiv-a691ab16016aab01cedb68ea5e247b37)

QuoteA spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence said Russian troops were surrendering en masse as "they understand the hopelessness of their situation." A Ukrainian presidential adviser said there were so many POWs that the country was running out of space to accommodate them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 13, 2022, 01:26:04 PM
(https://i.redd.it/nqm7crqgzmn91.jpg)

$265 million usd worth
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 13, 2022, 01:29:31 PM
(https://i.redd.it/v0bnsdqr4mn91.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on September 13, 2022, 02:20:33 PM
Unrelated to rashists getting their asses handed to them, but Twitter...

This is the third time I've had to report the same person for sending me pictures of scalped, castrated and otherwise mutilated Ukrainian soldiers; his timeline is literally just video after video of mutilated Ukrainian soldiers he is spamming at people.

Twice Twitter has told me they are going to suspend him; I check his account, and he is unbanned and continuing to spam these at people.

Third report is in, after this I have to assume that Twitter is okay with seeing mutilated corpses of Ukrainians on their site and with russian trolls harassing people with them.

Youtube, Twitter, and Chinese TikTok are the social guides of society today - help us all.

Edit - Oh, right, and his name is "Hoho Slayer" - the orcish equivalent of negro-killer.

Stay classy, Twitter, you enabling pricks.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 13, 2022, 10:59:45 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 13, 2022, 11:02:32 PM

I love that they've been using unsecured comms for well over 6 months.  I think Russian "tenacity" is simply mislabeled maladaption.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on September 14, 2022, 07:08:15 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 13, 2022, 11:02:32 PM
You can just call in your surrender and go home.  This is so weird.  But what happens when you go home?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Cassia on September 14, 2022, 09:24:09 AM
Quote from: SGOS on September 14, 2022, 07:08:15 AMYou can just call in your surrender and go home.  This is so weird.  But what happens when you go home?
I expect not too much as they are just contractors...Putler didn't have the balls to mobilize and declare war for fear of internal revolt. These contract warriors are often the poorest of the poor. He used the giant wealth gap he caused to further exploit them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 14, 2022, 03:11:25 PM
Georgia looking into expelling Russian troops from their borders (https://odessa-journal.com/georgia-proposes-to-hold-a-referendum-and-ask-if-georgians-want-war-with-russia/), which would effectively mean war with Russia.

Definitely an opportune time.  Either that or accept indefinite Russian control, partial loss of sovereignty, and potentially, further aggression.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 14, 2022, 03:26:44 PM
Russia cancels upcoming deployments into Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/14/7367399/)

Terrible timing, but it does make some sense.  There have been catastrophic morale and willingness issues, so many newly deployed units either refuse to fight or desert, leaving generals with very little to work with.  It would be prudent to resolve those issues prior to deployment.

Also, there's the problem of medical care or lack thereof:

QuoteDoctors are "recommended" to give permission for planned surgical interventions only after the end of the "special operation" or with the permission of the patient's commander. According to intelligence information, there was a case of a serviceman with a ruptured eardrum and contusion being discharged from the hospital in 3 days with a diagnosis of otitis. He was refused surgery and advised "not to get a sore ear."
Surgery only at the end of the special operation?  When is that?!

Also, otitis is ear infection/inflammation.  A ruptured eardrum is just a tiny bit more serious than an ear infection!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 14, 2022, 03:49:41 PM
A Hundred Wrecked Tanks In A Hundred Hours: Ukraine Guts Russia's Best Tank Army (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/13/a-hundred-wrecked-tanks-in-a-hundred-deadly-hours-heavy-losses-gut-russias-best-tank-army/?sh=25c92e7127a3)

QuoteA hundred wrecked or captured tanks in a hundred furious hours. That's how much destruction the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division, part of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, the Russian army's best armor formation.
Russia's finest.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 14, 2022, 05:48:27 PM
And I see where Ukraine is building wooden replicas of American missile launchers, which is causing Russia to waste ordinance trying to degrade Ukrainian weapons.

🤣
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 14, 2022, 05:55:07 PM
Quote from: Unbeliever on September 14, 2022, 05:48:27 PMAnd I see where Ukraine is building wooden replicas of American missile launchers, which is causing Russia to waste ordinance trying to degrade Ukrainian weapons.

🤣
Not just regular ordinance, but Kalibr missiles, a powerful and accurate but expensive and extremely limited missile.  To blow up wooden decoys.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 14, 2022, 06:34:11 PM
Man, just thinking about it gives me wood...

💥
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on September 14, 2022, 09:30:25 PM
I served 4 years in the US Navy and another 27 years in defense as a civilian contractor. (not a combatant) We were convinced of the massive ability of the USSR up until the Berlin wall came down. They pretty much augured in after that. There is a "paper" somewhere online that explains why a dictator can't make a decent bridge (i.e., that doesn't collapse). One company I worked at was pulling some shenanigans with the quality of a process. I was working with people on a process that relied on that the afore-mentioned process, and was told that there were certain parameters for test that had to be performed within a certain time window, or the parts wouldn't pass inspection. I immediately went to my supervisor and told him. It turned into a great big investigation, with government people, and all. Point is, we have a process in this country to call out shoddy workmanship, and make the processes and products better. This mindset doesn't exist in Russia, and we're seeing the result. I suspect that that mindset that the Russians have is starting to come to roost in the US, the way a lot of (R) assholes are acting. Pork barrel is one thing, but trashing the whole country so that one can rule is another.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 14, 2022, 09:56:31 PM
A dictator inherently can't trust other people, yet has to rely on them.  It's an inherently unstable system. 

Democracy gets ragged on a lot (frequently, by people who can't have it, so it's kind of a fox & grapes situation) as mob rule or rule by dumb people, but it's helpful to have lots of eyes on a problem, because individual people have blind spots.  It turns out that the best person to make the rules for us is us.  Who knew?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 14, 2022, 10:40:18 PM
(https://external-preview.redd.it/dCzIQqjQEnP8yoNYda_dA7tkei2v-mr2HM8Q2sRUZcA.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=3997b260580465c545b6d65941282b4724bb2da7)

That's Zelenskyy at recently-liberated Izyum.  Putin can't even walk outside without soon diving back in his Fuhrerbunker.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 14, 2022, 11:50:21 PM
I expect that Zelenskyy will go down in history as one of histories all-time best loved national leaders.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: the_antithesis on September 15, 2022, 12:43:49 AM
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 14, 2022, 09:56:31 PMA dictator inherently can't trust other people, yet has to rely on them.  It's an inherently unstable system.

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 15, 2022, 07:51:21 AM
(https://i.redd.it/b4j63fmhyvn91.png)

Bolder.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 15, 2022, 08:03:16 AM
Here's a headline I never thought I'd type: Putin worried about alcohol addiction of Russia's top leadership (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/15/7367562/)

When faced with ruin and death, alcoholism is not surprising.

Apparently the problem isn't so much the drinking as it is being noticeably drunk in  public; a source of public ridicule and contempt.

In Putin's Russia, it is much worse to be noticeably incompetent than to be unnoticeably incompetent.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 15, 2022, 01:02:18 PM
(https://i.redd.it/kxb1tcd2iyn91.png)

"This list is incomplete; you can help by expanding it"
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 15, 2022, 01:36:30 PM
I think Ukraine is trying to expand the list even now...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 15, 2022, 06:40:05 PM
Luhansk "People's Republic" leader says Ukrainian troops draw closer but "no reasons to panic" (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/15/7367614/)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGtLPU_WYAANLH5.png:large)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: SGOS on September 16, 2022, 08:24:11 AM
Putin was met by China's president with a gesture of friendship that I would call luke warm:

Quote(NYT) Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said the statement appeared to telegraph "a reproach to the Russians, that they're not acting like a great power, that they are creating instability."

I don't know if it's because like the rest of the world, China sees Russia's reasons for attacking Ukraine as unjustified or because great powers are not supposed to get their asses kicked.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on September 16, 2022, 08:42:11 AM
Quote from: SGOS on September 16, 2022, 08:24:11 AMPutin was met by China's president with a gesture of friendship that I would call luke warm:

I don't know if it's because like the rest of the world, China sees Russia's reasons for attacking Ukraine as unjustified or because great powers are not supposed to get their asses kicked.

Why not both?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 16, 2022, 09:29:12 AM
Russia launches supersonic missile at Ukraine, hits Russia (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-missile-stavropol-1743351)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 16, 2022, 09:31:03 AM
Ukrainian Air Force destroys six enemy aircraft over past three days (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3572779-ukrainian-air-force-destroys-six-enemy-aircraft-over-past-three-days.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 16, 2022, 02:06:20 PM
Mysterious explosions happen at occupation buildings in Kherson and Luhansk (https://www.rferl.org/a/explosions-russia-authorities-kherson-luhansk/32036899.html)

Careless smoking?
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on September 16, 2022, 03:57:40 PM
I always thought that exploding cigarettes were a childish type of prank. The Russians are making it explode into a real art form.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Shiranu on September 16, 2022, 05:02:52 PM
"Never again"

https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1570848716080414721 (https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1570848716080414721)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 16, 2022, 05:43:02 PM
Yeah, that's horrible.  They found mass graves in Izyum with at least 440 bodies.  Some showing clear signs of torture.

I'm happy that they're being liberated and no longer victimized by Russian nazis, but I really wish this had never happened at all. :(
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 16, 2022, 11:12:10 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/iWUSh1zl.png)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 17, 2022, 09:36:33 AM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 17, 2022, 09:57:47 AM
Recent map:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fc0Lo5kXwAYK98V?format=jpg&name=medium)

Awfully nice of them to use yellow and almost-yellow in their legend.  Very helpful.

Anyway, you can practically taste the Kherson watermelons.  Russian positions are also threatened in several other places - Ukrainian counteroffensives could push towards Melitopol and effectively cut Russian supply lines in a massive way.  Same with a push towards Donetsk and then south towards Mariupol.  And of course, Russian forces continue to lose ground east of Kharkiv and it's within the realm of possibility that this front collapses all the way to the Russian border, allowing Ukrainian soldiers the chance to secure the land border with Russia and then sweep south and west, uprooting the entire Russian presence.  Anything's possible.

Personally, it's a safe assumption that Russian units continue to degrade and be hollowed out by attrition, and as the 1st Tank Guards Army found out, there's only so much attrition you can take before you're no longer able to do pretty much anything.

All Ukraine has to do is keep firing and all the Allies have to do is keep supplying Ukraine, and sooner or later, one of the above counteroffensive opportunities will present itself.  Putin and his cronies are living on borrowed time and each second brings them closer to defeat.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 17, 2022, 11:10:32 AM
Ammo depot near Melitopol explodes (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3573421-russian-bases-blown-up-along-with-munitions-stocks-equipment-in-occupied-melitopol-mayor.html)

Yesterday, there were explosions at a Russian airfield nearby.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 18, 2022, 08:08:31 AM
Some prisoners recruited by Wagner to fight in Ukraine already captured (https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/wagner-group-russia-prisoners-captured-ukrainian-forces)

Poor training and equipment FTL.  Russia cuts so many corners that their flag should be a circle.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 18, 2022, 08:11:51 AM
Germany seizes three Russian oil refineries (https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/energy/rosneft-germany-oil-refineries/index.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 18, 2022, 08:14:33 AM
Russian units lost about half their soldiers during their withdrawal from Kharkiv region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/18/7367951/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 18, 2022, 08:18:38 AM
Ukrainian forces sink Russian barge loaded to the gills with military hardware (https://www-ukrinform-ua.translate.goog/rubric-ato/3573857-pivden-zsu-potopili-vorozu-barzu-z-vijskovou-tehnikou-ta-personalom.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 18, 2022, 02:52:36 PM

Tank driver.  Only a few weeks of training.  Old, low-quality equipment.  Never seen infantry (combined arms isn't a thing)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 18, 2022, 02:57:05 PM
Russia moves air defense from St Petersburg to Ukraine (https://www-dialog-ua.translate.goog/war/258877_1663495978?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)

They're creating a gap on their own air defense to shore up Ukraine.  Definitely a sign that they're running low.

Also, it really puts the lie to their talking point that they're super worried about "NATO aggression".  If they were truly worried, they'd pull out of Ukraine and reinforce their border.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 19, 2022, 09:13:28 AM
Russia runs out of reserves (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/18/russia-has-no-reserves-left-as-ukrainian-troops-surround-a-key-eastern-town/?sh=d2095783126d)

Problems mount for Putin, Russian military spread thin (https://www.ibtimes.com/putin-failing-problems-are-mounting-russian-soldiers-running-thin-british-forces-head-3614142)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 19, 2022, 09:24:59 AM
Institute for the Study of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18)

QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and formations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. ISW has previously reported that Putin has been bypassing the Russian higher military command and Ministry of Defense leadership throughout the summer and especially following the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.[1] Putin's souring relationship with the military command and the Russian (MoD) may explain in part the Kremlin's increasing focus on recruiting ill-prepared volunteers into ad-hoc irregular units rather than attempting to draw them into reserve or replacement pools for regular Russian combat units.

QuoteThe formation of such ad-hoc units will lead to further tensions, inequality, and an overall lack of cohesiveness between forces. Ukrainian and Russian sources have reported instances of Russian Armed Forces refusing to pay veteran benefits, one-time enlistment bonuses, or provide medical treatment to BARS (Russian Combat Army Reserve) servicemen.
Jeez.  No medical treatment.  No wonder morale is so catastrophically bad.

QuoteThe formation of irregular, hastily-trained units adds little effective combat power to Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. Forbes noted that the 3rd Army Corps rushed in to defend Russian positions around Kharkiv Oblast during the counteroffensive but failed to make any difference and "melted away."[10] The reported arrival of increasing numbers of irregular Russian forces on the battlefield has had little to no impact on Russian operations.
So basically, Putin is delusionally gambling on value-brand soldiers to save his bacon in Ukraine and doesn't yet realize that this is yet another blunder.

QuoteRussian forces are likely attempting to conduct a more deliberate and controlled withdrawal in western Kherson Oblast to avoid the chaotic flight that characterized the collapse of Russian defensive positions in Kharkiv Oblast earlier this month.
Music to my ears.  Their positions might not collapse as catastrophically as they did in Kharkiv, but they're still ceding ground that Ukraine will liberate and continue to push them out.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 19, 2022, 01:44:13 PM
First we do a little trolling: Wagner Telegram page prominently displays Azov logo (https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1571807901638922242)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 19, 2022, 01:45:45 PM
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania close their borders to z-zombie tourists (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/baltic-states-close-borders-russians-ukraine-war-90141954)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 19, 2022, 02:00:20 PM
Wagner base explodes, kills/wounds 200 nazis (https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1571579978545876994?s=20&t=4u6bAuoIUC7XGFDeT_Q0mA)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 19, 2022, 07:21:32 PM

Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 19, 2022, 11:28:38 PM

Not a catastrophic kill, but that's definitely going to void the warranty.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 19, 2022, 11:36:04 PM
The Wagner recruiting website was recently hacked (https://news.yahoo.com/army-ukraine-hacks-website-wagner-190036062.html).  Instead of the normal page, there are graphic pictures of dead Wagner soldiers (don't worry, the news link is sanitary and doesn't even mention that part) and the ominous message, "Ukrainian IT Army here. We now have your website personal data. Welcome to Ukraine. We're waiting for you 😈"

Suffice it to say that recruitment might slow down a bit.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 20, 2022, 02:21:43 PM
Ukraine sinks Russian barge choked to the gills with war equipment again (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/ukraines_military_sank_the_second_barge_with_russian_troops_during_their_attempt_to_force_the_dnipro_river-4280.html)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 20, 2022, 02:33:08 PM
Putin orders military to look into arms supplies in order to supply their forces correctly and analyze western weapons (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/20/7368302/)

Too little, too late.  Years too late.

Meanwhile, US Intelligence is digging through footage, wreckage, and in some cases, captured Russian tanks, planes, drones, munitions, etc.  They even have a couple working electronic warfare systems that made their way to the States courtesy of Zelensky.  Russia has few secrets left.

In contrast, Putin is digging through HIMARS wreckage and has almost enough wood to build a log cabin.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 20, 2022, 02:42:52 PM
The myth of Dictactor Putin as a strategic genius is quickly disintegrating (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/the-front-page-putins-blunders-run-deeper-than-ukraine/XOR7PJB7VUWU7YPL5HSQ7TDFHQ/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 20, 2022, 10:06:30 PM
As far as gas shortages go, Europe is in for a hard winter but not as hard as it could have been.  Dictator Putin hatched his scheme too early, which gave Europe plenty of time to adapt (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/europe-gas-falls-again-as-nations-step-up-efforts-to-ease-crisis).

QuoteEuropean natural gas prices rebounded after three days of declines, with traders weighing whether the continent's intensified efforts to ease a winter supply crisis will be sufficient to avoid shortages.

Benchmark futures settled 6.6% higher, reversing earlier losses that saw prices fall to the lowest level since late July. Governments across the region are deploying billions of euros in funding to ensure there is enough supply, with European economic powerhouse Germany moving closer to nationalizing gas giant Uniper SE in a historic bailout.

The country is also preparing fresh credit lines for gas purchases, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz will chase new deals during his trip to the Middle East this weekend.

That builds on moves by the European Union to curb a crisis that has brought the region's economy to the brink of recession. Separately, the UK plans to slash the wholesale prices that are incorporated into business energy bills this winter, according to people familiar with the matter. That's in addition to a plan to cap household expenses for two years.

In fact, German natural gas reserves have swelled to 90% (https://www.dw.com/en/german-gas-storage-90-full-ahead-of-winter-despite-russian-cuts/a-63178397), which should help them considerably.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 20, 2022, 10:36:07 PM
Poll of Ukrainians show strong support for Zelensky (81%), Ukraine armed forces (95%), integration into EU/NATO (92%, 79% respectively), and optimism towards the future (86%) (https://www.ndi.org/publications/opportunities-and-challenges-facing-ukraine-s-democratic-transition-0)

QuoteUkrainians show strong and united support for integration into the EU and NATO: 92 percent want Ukraine to join the EU, and 79 percent want Ukraine to join NATO. These views extend across all of Ukraine, south and east included, regional variations in support for Ukraine joining the EU or NATO, which were seen in previous polls, have virtually disappeared.
When they don't have guns to their heads, the south and east don't view the West any differently from Kyiv, which certainly contradicts Kremlin propaganda that there's an organic resistance to westernization there.

In fact, Russian-speaking residents in the Kharkiv region were quick to celebrate and personally thank Ukrainian forces for their liberation, expressing unmistakably genuine joy and relief.  The very people the Kremlin said the Ukrainians were genociding and therefore waged war on Ukraine ostensibly to "rescue" them.  How very interesting.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 20, 2022, 10:43:54 PM
Tanks for the donation (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-using-abandoned-russian-tanks-in-counteroffensive-think-thank-2022-9)

Quote"The initial panic of the counteroffensive led Russian troops to abandon higher-quality equipment in working order, rather than the more damaged equipment left behind by Russian forces retreating from Kyiv in April, further indicating the severity of the Russian rout," the institute said.
They even captured a near-mint T-90 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-captures-russias-advanced-t-90m-tank-fwtkplbjq), which I'm told is at least several Ms more advanced than the T-62s with BBQ grills bolted on (really makes the radio crackle and pop) and reactive armor replaced with rubber, which I'm sure will look great strewn over some field when the turret inevitably blasts into the stratosphere.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Dark Lightning on September 20, 2022, 10:58:45 PM
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 20, 2022, 10:43:54 PMTanks for the donation (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-using-abandoned-russian-tanks-in-counteroffensive-think-thank-2022-9)
They even captured a near-mint T-90 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-captures-russias-advanced-t-90m-tank-fwtkplbjq), which I'm told is at least several Ms more advanced than the T-62s with BBQ grills bolted on (really makes the radio crackle and pop) and reactive armor replaced with rubber, which I'm sure will look great strewn over some field when the turret inevitably blasts into the stratosphere.

Now, be fair, those turrets only make it to the mesosphere. :p
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 20, 2022, 11:07:51 PM
Pro-Russian Vostok battalion commander in Kherson region:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdHkKpaXgAUSocb?format=png&name=900x900)

The Russians claim they're "saving ammo" as they're getting pounded.  Also, I'm pretty sure stoicism works just a little differently than just getting blasted with no response.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 21, 2022, 07:59:45 AM
Dictator Putin calls for partial mobilization, tickets out of RuZZia sell out as war-fearing Russians abandon warmongering dictator (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/flights-out-russia-sell-out-after-putin-orders-partial-call-up-2022-09-21/)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 21, 2022, 01:26:12 PM
Wagner recruits a literal cannibal (https://twitter.com/Callsign_Santa/status/1572424074969886723)

I bet they hope they get a generous supply of rations, 'cause when those run out...

Donner, party of five!
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 21, 2022, 01:35:07 PM
Trapped in Putin's RusKorea: Russian men no longer allowed to leave RuZZia (https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1572493084977422336)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 21, 2022, 01:40:02 PM
Armenia, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan will no longer accept Russian Mir cards for payment (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1572547930233647108?t=_YOD_AIA8wPwOHaF8XREsQ&s=33)
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 21, 2022, 01:50:24 PM
Russian scientist mysteriously dies after falling down the stairs (https://twitter.com/runews/status/1572529318835949568)

🤔
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 21, 2022, 07:31:25 PM
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Unbeliever on September 21, 2022, 08:32:00 PM
I just saw that another Putin ally has died, after a fall down a lot of stairs. Seems to be dangerous to be a Putin ally...
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 21, 2022, 08:49:37 PM
With the way dictators treat those around them, it's mystifying that anyone ever voluntarily does anything for them.
Title: Re: Will Putin Invade Ukraine?
Post by: Hydra009 on September 21, 2022, 11:55:35 PM
Institute of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21)

QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of "partial mobilization" on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months.[1] Putin's order to mobilize part of Russia's "trained" reserve, that is, individuals who have completed their mandatory conscript service, will not generate significant usable Russian combat power for months. It may suffice to sustain the current levels of Russian military manpower in 2023 by offsetting Russian casualties, although even that is not yet clear. It will occur in deliberate phases, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview on September 21, likely precluding any sudden influx of Russian forces that could dramatically shift the tide of the war.[2] Russia's partial mobilization will thus not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate more of its occupied territory into and through the winter.

QuoteRussian reserves are poorly trained to begin with and receive no refresher training once their conscription period is completed. Russian mandatory military service is only one year, which gives conscripts little time to learn how to be soldiers, to begin with. The absence of refresher training after that initial period accelerates the degradation of learned soldier skills over time. Shoigu referred to the intent of calling up reservists with "combat experience," but very few Russian reservists other than those now serving in Ukraine have any combat experience.

QuotePutin's speech should not be read as an explicit threat that Russia would use nuclear weapon