I guess he sees a divided, weak US and it's now or never...
From Wiki...
Ukraine has acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ukraine inherited "as many as 3,000" nuclear weapons when it became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991, making its nuclear arsenal the third-largest in the world. By 1994, Ukraine had agreed to dispose of all nuclear weapons within its territory, with the condition that its borders were respected, as part of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.
Ukraine is not a NATO member but has agreements and relations with NATO and the plan to eventually be a member has been off and on.
If Russia invades, are the US/EU/NATO obligated to defend?
I´m sorry to say... especially because I Trudy fear the consequences and escalation of open war...
But I feel like the EU would be morally obligated to defend the Ukraine, if need be by war.
I don´t know if we would, but I think we should, if left no other option than letting Putin get away with it.
More likely, I think trade sanctions would be applied.
Putin doesn't give a shit about trade sanctions because the EU needs Russian fossil fuels worse than Russia needs anything from the EU or the US. If they invade, which seems more likely than not to me, it is either go to war or cede the country to the Russians. As far as I am concerned this has been inevitable since 2014 when they annexed Crimea, and nobody stopped them then.
Yeah, I don´t think sanctions would be the appropriate response. But I do think it´s the most likely one.
Didn´t do anything real neither when in belarus loekasjenko performed his coup.
IMHO, they rattle the sword and cages…looking to be paid off. We will never know the result should they silently retreat because they won’t. But if they do, they got paid.
If Russia wants Ukraine, it's going to get it. Get real. What is anyone going to do about it?
Biden has already told Ukraine and Russia that a "small incursion" into Ukraine will go unpunished, so my guess is that within the next few years Kyiv will be Russian occupied and within the decade as far as Lviv will belong to the Russians; this would also link Russia with occupied Moldova (Transnistra) and give them borders with most of their former vassals for future moves (or for influencing these more corrupt Comblock states' governments to be pro-Russia, like we've seen in Montenegro).
I don't believe the United States is going to do anything, and until the Russians are knocking on Germany's border the EU won't give a shit because those Eastern European states are there as a courtesy, not as key members like France/Germany; they are those friends that don't really fit in with the friend group that has known each other for decade, but one of the main people think they are cool so they let them tag along.
Politics aside, you also just can't negotiate with people like Putin, and unfortunately America's actions have given him plenty of ammunition to manipulate the Russian people into believing his propaganda, and as for America any mention of the fact we have provoked this as well get's swept under the rug and we believe the Russians are the big evil.
It's a shame, because the Ukraine is one of the most beautiful countries I've seen in Europe and looks really peaceful (as an American) and culturally historic. But I am also trying to view everything as pessimistically as I can so there is nothing to be disappointed about; I just don't see the United States doing anything which means the EU won't do anything. We will appease Putin until he is certain he has the leg-up on us and then watch him keep on pushing, all the while China laughs as it's two enemies weaken each other.
We couldn't stop the Taliban. Why would we think we could stop the Russians?
I stand corrected; we are doing something, and it's worse than doing nothing.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/19/us-allies-ukraine-weapons-russia-invasion-527375
We are sending $200 million in anti-armor, ammunition, and equipment to the Russian border and have asked Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania to use them for exporting the equipment (I am presuming normally it would come into Germany or France and then be sent by train). This of course puts them at higher risk of pissing off Russia for helping us. The UK is doing the same thing, sending tons of arms and anti-tank equipment to the front. Oh, and we are going to be doing it third-party, because of course we are. Their excuse is literally, "Man, government is just too bureaucratic and it would take to long" and honestly... I have no reason to not believe that isn't the truth, but I still know that is going to mean less over-sight and more corrupt politicians and businessmen finding someway to make a profit off of it.
This equipment is not expected to stop Russia; we are already playing on the backfoot and defensively, trying to catch up. Rather it's being sent there to try and cause as much loss of Russian life as it can so that the people might be scared of us more than they are scared of, or respect, Putin. And if that doesn't work... well, maybe slow them down enough that we can mobilize the American powerhouse like we did in WW2.
Two problems; one is that nuclear weapons are not even required in the modern era, with just the right information you could cripple an entire country's infrastructure. You could even do it in such a way that a nuclear retaliation (if possible) would be necessary, just slow them down enough to finish your invasion before they can get their troops anywhere near, then call for peace before things escalate; they are set back, you win, and the world doesn't die in nuclear annihilation. That is the most... optimistic... possibility if war was to break out.
Secondly I just don't see violence working; I think if anything it will galvanize and piss off the Russian people more, with Putin taking a page out of Trump or Bush's playbooks and appealing as a "common man" and not an aristocrat to surge his popularity. This is his general go-to I've seen for the last... decade or however long it's been since he has been making big moves... to appeal to the military and their nationalist traditions (what a weird concept, never seen that before...).
All three leaders are intentionally provoking a fight, and all it takes is one bad bullet for shit to hit the fan; unfortunately we are lead by a borderline senile chimp and his troop of Congress, a Dollar General-brand Trump buffoon over in the UK with Boris, and the chest beating, but also smarter than expected, gorilla in Russia.
Who do you think wins that fight?
To put it bluntly, nothing real will be done until/if they arrive to German border. All those countries are the new EU members as a courtesy. They do not matter. They are cushions.
[In the next 50 to 100 years, after taking Baltic, they will probably target down south. I'm thinking anything down from Georgia, Armenia, Turkey...'lol'. they have been trying to reach warm waters for 200 years. Especially if things get this fucked up beyond control around here, certain actions and moves will get legitimate and legitimate by the year, and it will be easier than thought.
The Russian culture is violent, oppressive and bigotic. Right Wing. Nothing alien to us. We already live in deep under that.]
Funny enough, Germany is taking the exact opposite approach of the U.S. and UK; while we are stream-lining the movement of arms to Ukraine... Germany is blocking their arms from being shipped to the border.
At least one power seems to be looking for a peaceful solution yet.
Like Popeyes said, Europe's fossil fuel is coming from Russia.
Today, I have read that Russia has already started to cut the natural gas and the US is in talk (with Katar?), but I have no idea where I've read all that. :/
Quote from: drunkenshoe on January 22, 2022, 10:48:14 AMLike Popeyes said, Europe's fossil fuel is coming from Russia.
Yep. Yet another reason to go renewable.
The US pulled the ambassadors. *Shivers.
I think, I have been mutating. I'm constantly scared about several things, but because there is no place in me for more bad news and more scary stuff, it feels like the feeling of being scared is turning around my head and gets in from my nose in every 3 secs, reached to my stomach and then gets out from my mouth. That was my attempt at defining anxiety.
Biden is now considering sending 1,000-5,000 troops to the Baltics, with a plan to increase that "ten-fold" if Russia does anything.
Meanwhile...
(https://i.imgur.com/cU2Ve0F.png)
(https://imgur.com/gallery/8viSACk)
Saigon/Kabul all over again?
I don't actually care, as neither Russians nor Ukrainians pay taxes to the US government.
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on January 23, 2022, 11:28:45 PM
I don't actually care, as neither Russians nor Ukrainians pay taxes to the US government.
Nuclear fallout doesn't respect country lines or tax codes. Generally doesn't care much for personal liberties, either.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 23, 2022, 11:37:30 PM
Nuclear fallout doesn't respect country lines or tax codes. Generally doesn't care much for personal liberties, either.
It is 100 seconds to midnight
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
The interesting thing about missile silos is well of course they are targeted and would be destroyed....so you can't wait to launch them. They must be “launched on warning.†We will spend roughly $100 billion on our next generation of missiles (qty of 600) which will be ready to use around 2029.
The UK has now pulled out it's government officials, citing "immediate military danger"; meanwhile they are sending warships into the Baltic along with Spain & Denmark IIRC, as well as France and Spain sending group troops to Bulgaria and I believe Denmark. It's still small-scale mobilization, but when the stakes are so high I don't think "small-scale" actually exists anymore.
On the 10% chance I give of this going south, I'm hoping I live close enough to a major military base to be vaporized immediately.
We just got James Webb out there, cant we do this shit some other time?
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 22, 2022, 11:03:10 AM
Yep. Yet another reason to go renewable.
Oil and gas is used for a lot more than producing energy like plastics and more importantly pesticides and fertilizers. Without the latter most of us would starve pretty quickly, and as far as I know there are no real alternatives. It takes more shit to produce enough fertile ground to feed a person than a person can produce. We are going to need to need oil and gas for a long long time into the future.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2022, 08:39:47 AM
Oil and gas is used for a lot more than producing energy like plastics and more importantly pesticides and fertilizers. Without the latter most of us would starve pretty quickly, and as far as I know there are no real alternatives. It takes more shit to produce enough fertile ground to feed a person than a person can produce. We are going to need to need oil and gas for a long long time into the future.
Apologies. What I said was that countries should pursue renewable energy sources for a number of reasons, including lessening their reliance on energy imports from adversarial/authoritarian countries. What I clearly meant to say was that realistically, oil and gas can in the near future never be used again. Not one drop. Sorry for the confusion.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 24, 2022, 09:15:02 AM
Apologies. What I said was that countries should pursue renewable energy sources for a number of reasons, including lessening their reliance on energy imports from adversarial/authoritarian countries. What I clearly meant to say was that realistically, oil and gas can in the near future never be used again. Not one drop. Sorry for the confusion.
I wasn't confused and didn't mean to infer you were saying we shouldn't use any more oil period. Just trying to point out that oil is used for more than energy and failing the invention of some new type of fertilizers we are going to need large amounts of the stuff for the foreseeable future even if we get all our energy from elsewhere.
The relevance to this thread is can Europe produce enough crude oil and gas to feed itself without Russian imports if they didn't need fossil fuels for energy production? I don't know the answer to this question.
QuoteThe relevance to this thread is can Europe produce enough crude oil and gas to feed itself without Russian imports if they didn't need fossil fuels for energy production? I don't know the answer to this question.
Even with Scotland and Norway having some massive deposits, I just don't think Europe has the infrastructure to do that before there would be massive logistical problems.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Oil_and_petroleum_products_-_a_statistical_overview&oldid=315177#Production_of_crude_oil
In 2019 Europe hit a record low in crude oil production; 19.8 million tons. In that same time the EU imported 507.2 million tons and 135.8 million of that came from Russia.
So maybe the EU has healthy reserves in standby, but either way losing Russian oil would still be almost a quarter of their normal crude being lost, and there is no way the common folk don't suffer in that scenario.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 24, 2022, 01:36:44 PM
Even with Scotland and Norway having some massive deposits, I just don't think Europe has the infrastructure to do that before there would be massive logistical problems.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Oil_and_petroleum_products_-_a_statistical_overview&oldid=315177#Production_of_crude_oil
In 2019 Europe hit a record low in crude oil production; 19.8 million tons. In that same time the EU imported 507.2 million tons and 135.8 million of that came from Russia.
So maybe the EU has healthy reserves in standby, but either way losing Russian oil would still be almost a quarter of their normal crude being lost, and there is no way the common folk don't suffer in that scenario.
But the question here is how much of that crude is used for energy production and how much for other necessary things like fertilizers and lubricants? is 20 million tons a year enough for those things?
On the other side of the world, tensions with China/Taiwan and North Korea/literally everyone have not been all that great either.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/two-us-carriers-enter-schina-sea-counter-malign-influence-2022-01-24/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/two-us-carriers-enter-schina-sea-counter-malign-influence-2022-01-24/)
Lithuania just a few weeks ago signed a contract with Taiwan to establish semiconductor manufacturing there (heavily pissing off China), one of the main things that makes Taiwan so damned valuable to begin with. If Russia invaded the West and stopped that, and China takes Taiwan while we are distracted, that makes their stranglehold on that market so much stronger... and semiconductors are probably THE business to be in (besides maybe cannabis or opioid production) for the future.
Of course this is all speculation based on probably 2% of the total possible information these countries have access to... but I'm bored.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2022, 01:45:21 PM
But the question here is how much of that crude is used for energy production and how much for other necessary things like fertilizers and lubricants? is 20 million tons a year enough for those things?
From what I'm finding...
(https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/thumb/f/f0/Final_energy_consumption_of_petroleum_products%2C_EU%2C_1990-2019_%28million_tonnes_of_oil_equivalent%29_.png/800px-Final_energy_consumption_of_petroleum_products%2C_EU%2C_1990-2019_%28million_tonnes_of_oil_equivalent%29_.png)
If we take energy generation out of the equation it 100% should be enough, but I just cant see Europe being energy sufficient before a war would break out.
No matter what, it is a good plan by Putin to further divide the US after Trump got played and then the ruskie disinformation campaign. And if you like Trump you just might sort of like Putin as well. Trump is saying this wouldn't have happened if he was president. Uh....Crimea was the start, traitor moron.
Quote from: Cassia on January 24, 2022, 05:20:48 PM
No matter what, it is a good plan by Putin to further divide the US after Trump got played and then the ruskie disinformation campaign. And if you like Trump you just might sort of like Putin as well. Trump is saying this wouldn't have happened if he was president. Uh....Crimea was the start, traitor moron.
Crimea was under Obama to be fair (with Joe Biden at the time thinking it was a massive failure on our part), but it certainly didn't improve under Trump.
I think your average GOP voter wouldn't mind Putin if he just had an American flag next to him, and certainly your average GOP Congressman seems to like him, like those 6...8?... or so who went to visit Russia on the 4th of July.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 23, 2022, 11:37:30 PM
Nuclear fallout doesn't respect country lines or tax codes. Generally doesn't care much for personal liberties, either.
Which one are you expecting to nuke the other in a possible ware between Russia and Ukraine?
Quote from: Cassia on January 24, 2022, 05:20:48 PMNo matter what, it is a good plan by Putin to further divide the US after Trump got played and then the ruskie disinformation campaign. And if you like Trump you just might sort of like Putin as well. Trump is saying this wouldn't have happened if he was president. Uh....Crimea was the start, traitor moron.
To be honest, it's pretty odd that this didn't happen under Trump. That would have been a golden opportunity for Putin, with its biggest adversary in disarray.
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on January 25, 2022, 10:08:06 PM
Which one are you expecting to nuke the other in a possible ware between Russia and Ukraine?
Russia and Ukraine are already at war; have been for about 8 years now.
"I don't care" doesn't change reality. Ukraine is a partner with NATO and thus has a tentative alliance with it... and until the United States pulls out of NATO we thus have an obligation to uphold those treaties. If conflict breaks out between NATO and Russia (which always remains a possibility when you have two armed forces staring each other in the eye), then nuclear warfare is not particularly a slim possibility; more likely would be a new age of cyberwarfare... which also doesn't respect who you pay taxes to or your personal freedom unless you live off the grid (which since your posting here likely isn't the case).
So the US has built up a defense and is prepared for the event of war. This is actually kind of scary. What is Putin hoping to accomplish here? If the US and Russia are forced to go at it, it can't end well. Maybe we'll both agree not to resort to nuclear weapons, but what if one side decides to do a pre-emptive strike on the other out of paranoia?
Quote from: Blackleaf on January 26, 2022, 07:34:14 PMWhat is Putin hoping to accomplish here?
Complete control over Ukraine seems likely. I forgot where I read it, but essentially, Putin wants to get the Soviet bloc back together. At the very least, keep these countries under the Russian sphere of influence, peacefully (as Belarus can attest) or through military force (as Georgia can attest (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Georgia)). Ukraine joining NATO would certainly be a huge setback to that.
QuoteI forgot where I read it, but essentially, Putin wants to get the Soviet bloc back together.
Yeah, I've seen that before as well and it honestly makes sense to me; imagine the legacy of an ex-KGB agent brining the Soviet Union back to it's former glory? He would be immortalized, and when you look at photoshoots of him and his behavior at home... he really seems to be a deeply narcissistic man obsessed with his image. Hell, he might even surpass Stalin and Lenin if he achieved that.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 26, 2022, 09:06:06 PM
Yeah, I've seen that before as well and it honestly makes sense to me; imagine the legacy of an ex-KGB agent brining the Soviet Union back to it's former glory? He would be immortalized, and when you look at photoshoots of him and his behavior at home... he really seems to be a deeply narcissistic man obsessed with his image. Hell, he might even surpass Stalin and Lenin if he achieved that.
I always thought the Western allies missed an opportunity to get with Russia during the first few years after the USSR crumbled.
Quote from: Cassia on January 26, 2022, 09:30:20 PMI always thought the Western allies missed an opportunity to get with Russia during the first few years after the USSR crumbled.
Yeltsin. On one hand, he helped make sure the USSR's collapse was as painless as possible and helped Russia transition towards democracy. On the other hand, he oversaw the rise of the oligarchs, corruption exploded, took Russia on a warpath that it has yet to stray from (not just externally, but internally, as in the Black October), and hand-picked Putin. Definitely set the stage for the rapid deterioration of Russia's nascent democracy into the oligarchy/strongman system they have today.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 26, 2022, 01:30:54 AM
Russia and Ukraine are already at war; have been for about 8 years now.
Well then, that increases the relevance of my question, as it does from "if they go to war" to "they are at war". Which one are you expecting to nuke the other?
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on January 27, 2022, 08:45:40 PM
Well then, that increases the relevance of my question, as it does from "if they go to war" to "they are at war". Which one are you expecting to nuke the other?
Every war plan is obsolete the minute the war starts. A missile wanders off at hits a NATO aircraft and we go to DEFCON 1.
Quote from: Cassia on January 27, 2022, 08:55:28 PMEvery war plan is obsolete the minute the war starts. A missile wanders off at hits a NATO aircraft and we go to DEFCON 1.
Hey now, there's no way that the Russian military would possibly engage anyone but their primary target. Not a dutch passenger plane full of civilians (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17), not Turkish forces (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Russian_Air_Force_Al-Bab_incident), and definitely not US forces (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-leaked-audio-humiliating-defeat-by-us-forces-2018-2). They're laser-focused and totally professional and there's no way they could possibly cause a serious international incident and potentially trigger a serious military confrontation.
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on January 27, 2022, 08:45:40 PM
Well then, that increases the relevance of my question, as it does from "if they go to war" to "they are at war". Which one are you expecting to nuke the other?
Neither, thought you could read past one line.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 27, 2022, 11:44:42 PM
Neither, thought you could read past one line.
In post # 16, you replied to my statement about how this isn't our concern by saying nuclear fallout doesn't care about national boundaries. You were warning that we have to get involved because otherwise there might be nuclear fallout.
If we don't get involved in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which country are you expecting to nuke which other country?
Jason, literally everyone else figured out that there's a real possibility of escalation and NATO forces (of which several have nukes) could get into it with Russia, which also has nukes. I pieced that together within a couple seconds of reading Shiranu's post. Days later, I'm having to bluntly point this out to you so that you finally understand.
I didn't know what Defcon is. So it says 9/11, for 3 days Defcon 3, 2 stanby. Nuclear hit on allies, Defcon 1 I guess. I wonder what's alien invasion. :welcome: :p
Quote from: drunkenshoe on January 29, 2022, 10:41:06 AM
I didn't know what Defcon is. So it says 9/11, for 3 days Defcon 3, 2 stanby. Nuclear hit on allies, Defcon 1 I guess. I wonder what's alien invasion. :welcome: :p
Defcon 1/2.
We're actually trying to start this...
QuoteSeveral thousand troops will be sent to NATO member nations in Eastern Europe to reassure allies anxious over tensions surrounding Ukraine. The U.S. has said it will not deploy troops to Ukraine in the event of conflict there.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/02/world/ukraine-russia-news (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/02/world/ukraine-russia-news)
On the bright side, Russia actually seems to be offering some reasonable peaceful solutions... we just keep on turning them down. Not perfect for sure, but better than more troops on the border.
If Russia and their murderer-in-charge do not overwhelm Ukraine right away, they could be in for a long war they really can't afford. US strategy should be to indirectly support all resistance. He seems to be reenacting the Hitler playbook to a tee in an effort to reassemble a new Russian union.
Quote from: Cassia on February 02, 2022, 02:13:21 PM
If Russia and their murderer-in-charge do not overwhelm Ukraine right away, they could be in for a long war they really can't afford. US strategy should be to indirectly support all resistance. He seems to be reenacting the Hitler playbook to a tee in an effort to reassemble a new Russian union.
I don't mind the idea of us providing arms and supplies, though I fear at best we recreate Afghanistan... some of the rebel groups fighting in Donbas for Ukraine have some very disturbing neo-Nazi affiliations and we've been supporting them. No good saving Ukraine from Putin just to condemn them to a far-right Neo-Nazi state.
Neo-Nazis are everywhere now. They demonstrated against Jews in Orlando just this week. If Putin does take Ukraine, he will destroy their democracy and set up a puppet dictator. He will not stop with that. And then like clockwork an emboldened China will follow suit.
Mussolini, Hitler, Putin, Pol Pot, Stalin, Kim Il, and Trump are the same sort of authoritarian, megalomaniac kings. They admire each other. Doesn't matter if they are supposed to be "left" or "right". They invoke that tribal bullshit and if allowed they push towards death and destruction every time.
(https://i.imgur.com/YZXxXVnl.png)
Unity march in Ukraine.....but does Putin care?
(https://www.reuters.com/resizer/ivD6rMSzTFaZSZgeL6J-b_BfH5Y=/960x0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/WRLULDKIXJITHO7HCJXNRLUEJU.jpg)
(https://www.reuters.com/resizer/TAclL7Hn-BKv2g6yHdAmE8V2nLM=/1920x0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/BXRM6QXQDZPFZLCOASVVFRKJA4.jpg)
Putin: we will make unity.
To be honest, my dad came home from Russia Friday night. Kind of glad. I don´t think it was dangerous, but still I feel more at ease.
He was there for a business trip.
I read that the fields of Ukraine are expected to be frozen enough sometime around mid-February so that Russian heavy tanks will have an easy invasion traverse.
Heads up; about 30 minutes - 1 hour ago, Biden warned all Americans to evacuate Ukraine immediately, and that things could, "get crazy quickly" after Berlin talks earlier today broke down.
That... sounds lovely.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/things-could-go-crazy-quickly-biden-warns-on-ukraine-as-talks-in-berlin-fail?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1644551916
Quote from: Cassia on February 02, 2022, 04:07:41 PM
Neo-Nazis are everywhere now. They demonstrated against Jews in Orlando just this week. If Putin does take Ukraine, he will destroy their democracy and set up a puppet dictator. He will not stop with that. And then like clockwork an emboldened China will follow suit.
So the Russians would be acting like the US did a few years ago in Ukraine. Silly Russians, don't they know only the US can interfere in other countries.
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on February 11, 2022, 08:25:14 PM
So the Russians would be acting like the US did a few years ago in Ukraine. Silly Russians, don't they know only the US can interfere in other countries.
?
The 2004 Orange Revolution.
I've just read in some local tweet that Ukraine has started firing in Garlovka and Donetsk. Any news over there?
If Putin invades on Superbowl Sunday, will Russia win the game? Would the US even notice? Russia's navy is on the move now too.
I've never seen any war as so much enthusiastically and oddly scheduled as this one. Now, the Russian invasion is imminent, US pulling out.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/02/12/us-soldiers-ukraine-pulling-out-amid-warnings-of-imminent-russian-invasion.html
U.S. has intel that Russian commanders have orders to proceed with Ukraine invasion
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-us-intelligence-orders/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=153051694
Putin is now declaring Ukraine a "historic part of Russia" and recognizes the independence of the "Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk", 190k troops now on the border and reports of military equipment seen within Ukrainian borders.
Even Putin's generals looked terrified of him, so here is to hoping there are still some sane heads within his cabinet.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden/russia-will-recognize-two-regions-in-ukraine-a-possible-prelude-to-invasion?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
Yeah, I saw it. Apparently, he was also talking about Russians building Ukraine.
Quote from: drunkenshoe on February 21, 2022, 04:10:27 PM
Yeah, I saw it. Apparently, he was also talking about Russians building Ukraine.
Kinda like the European settlers "built" America... just ignore what we tore down first.
Ukarine is in the top ten wheat producing countries, selling it to many places. E: To us for example. If this goes long and we cannot buy it from anyone else, the surviving population will be very slim and fashionable. *I'm going slightly maaad. I'm going slightly maaad. It's finally happened. I'm slightly maaad.
Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine last night.
So the answer to the question is a resounding yes. Now the only things left to figure out are how much of Ukraine he'll take over, how many lives will be lost, and what repercussions Putin will face, if any.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 22, 2022, 07:51:23 AM
Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine last night.
So the answer to the question is a resounding yes. Now the only things left to figure out are how much of Ukraine he'll take over, how many lives will be lost, and what repercussions Putin will face, if any.
Actually the big question is China going to try to take advantage of the situation and take over Taiwan?
I wanna thank Trump for pumping-up that little Putin douchebag. Of course, the wave of Nationalism encourages every Hitler wanna-be.
I think the sanctions will be useless. We could confiscate and lock-up every penny and all property owned by every wealthy Russian.
This stupid land-grab by Putin could end up ultimately turning the planet into glass. Frankly I am surprised we haven't already.
For a good breakdown on all the crazy stuff that happened yesterday that can get lost in the noise, the last segment on Ukraine does a good job at recapping and reminding some of the serious things.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKNXF2IYHI8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofijY6M-OA8
A rebuke of expansionist nationalism as practiced by Russia and Russian operatives within sovereign countries calling for "unity" with Russia
Updates:
Russia has list of Ukrainians it plans on killing or sending to camps (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-plans-target-dissidents-ukraine-killed-sent-camps-us-says-rcna17031)
QuoteEarlier, Crocker said in the letter that the U.S. believes Russia would “likely target those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.â€
The document warns of large-scale "human rights violations and abuses" and says protesters would also be met with unjust force.
Ukraine starts drafting its reservists (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-starts-drafting-reservists-aged-18-60-after-presidents-order-2022-02-23/)
I can always pull up the RT Channel (was Russia Today and changed its name just like Kentucky Fried) on my satellite receiver for some Putin propaganda.
My heart hurts, for now there are reports of explosions in Kyiv; a streamer I really respect and a classmate from a decade ago both live there, and I hate the thought of what life must be like for them now.
More than just reports; caught on camera, explosions in Kyiv.
I hope the people I know have been able to flee the country, I'm scared of how they will be treated by the Russian occupiers :(.
Funny how half the world won't wear a medical mask if a government asks them to but invading and murdering on their behalf is just ok...we're all in.
Quote from: Cassia on February 23, 2022, 11:42:25 PM
Funny how half the world won't wear a medical mask if a government asks them to but invading and murdering on their behalf is just ok...we're all in.
Based on the response to the pandemic and the current social and political climate, I wonder if Americans would put aside their differences and come together to defend the United States even if there was a direct attack on US soil.
The invasion is underway, but there is no James Earl Jones announcing the CNN daily (hourly) report the way he did during the invasion of Iraq. I guess this invasion must not be as much fun as when we pounded Iraq into the ground. Funny! Absent are the hours of explosions and a night sky filled with anti aircraft fire brought to your home via television with a breathless Wolf Blitzer telling you not to leave the room during brief commercial breaks. America doesn't seem up for this one, although it will certainly be as bloody and destructive. There are other parallels too. One is that both invasions are/were based on lies. War is an odd endeavor.
Quote from: SGOS on February 24, 2022, 08:05:16 AM
The invasion is underway, but there is no James Earl Jones announcing the CNN daily (hourly) report the way he did during the invasion of Iraq. I guess this invasion must not be as much fun as when we pounded Iraq into the ground. Funny! Absent are the hours of explosions and a night sky filled with anti aircraft fire brought to your home via television with a breathless Wolf Blitzer telling you not to leave the room during brief commercial breaks. America doesn't seem up for this one, although it will certainly be as bloody and destructive. There are other parallels too. One is that both invasions are/were based on lies. War is an odd endeavor.
Shock and Awe didn't really subdue Iraqi insurgents for long. I guess we shall see how committed the bulk of Ukrainians are to having their own country. Poland is about to get some evacuees fleeing ahead of the violence.
Quote from: GSOgymrat on February 24, 2022, 01:09:37 AM
Based on the response to the pandemic and the current social and political climate, I wonder if Americans would put aside their differences and come together to defend the United States even if there was a direct attack on US soil.
I would think at least 70% would unite. Seems maybe 20% have just mentally gone off into some fictional existence where JFK, Trump, Elvis and Putin are saving the children from Clintons and another 10% just don't care about anything really.
Quote from: GSOgymrat on February 24, 2022, 01:09:37 AM
Based on the response to the pandemic and the current social and political climate, I wonder if Americans would put aside their differences and come together to defend the United States even if there was a direct attack on US soil.
I'll give you three guesses. (https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-other-top-conservatives-rally-to-putins-side-over-ukraine-threat-2022-2)
Imagine simping for dictators around the world and calling yourself a defender of freedom and democracy.
Russia has declared war on Ukraine (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/23/russia-ukraine-invasion-crisis-update/6906567001/)
There are now major military clashes as well as deliberate attacks on civilians by Russian forces. There have also been rocket attacks launched from Belarus, so it's pretty obvious which axis of the conflict they're on.
I'd like to know a thing I can't know for the moment because this information isn't public and will maybe be never published or after my death (I'm 28 years old. If the information is released in 100 years or more I would be dead accorded to medical knowledge of nowadays).
This thing is the next. The president of Russian Federation initially wanted to put Ukraine under pressure (When Russians troops were around the border between the two states) or he did prepared invasion for month or years ?
If Russia invades fully the Ukrainian territory.
Does it means Putin will attack a country member of European Union or / and a NATO member ?
If the President of Russia attack an EU country.
What will do others members of this union ? In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
EU countries have the legal obligation to assist each others in case of an attack.
If the Russian President choose to attack a state member of NATO. In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
Think about article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It can be used. It can maybe finish in a nuclear war.
War isn't fun , war is devastating for all parties involved , war with two sides who have an access to nuclear weapons is terrifying if a faction or both choose to use these.
Full extract of article 5 in English :
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security"
Link to the treaty on official NATO website : https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
Text is available in 27 languages (Some of them aren't languages of NATO members. The language of some members isn't available) : Albanian , Armenian , Croatian , Czech , Danish , Dutch , English , Estonian , French , Georgian , German , Greek , Hebrew , Hungarian , Icelandic , Italian , Latvian , Lithuanian , Norwegian , Polish , Portuguese , Russian , Slovenian , Spanish , Turkish , Ukrainian.
Full extract of article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations (There are a reference to it in article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty) :
"Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security."
Link to the charter on official UN website (Text available in the six official languages of UN that are Arabic , Chinese , English , French , Russian , Spanish) : https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter
Quote from: viocjit on February 24, 2022, 12:23:08 PMIf Russia invades fully the Ukrainian territory.
Does it means Putin will attack a country member of European Union or / and a NATO member ?
Unknown. What we do know is that Russia will invade a country without provocation if the country is militarily weaker and is utterly undeterred by sanctions or global opinion.
As long as Putin breathes, Russia is a security threat to any eastern european country and possibly beyond. Naturally, any country on the chopping block will want to band together with as many other countries as possible to negate Russia's military superiority to avoid invasion, but even that might not be enough.
Fuck putin.
Russian invaders temporarily seized control of an airport but were encircled and destroyed by Ukrainian forces: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport)
Russian invaders took control of Chernobyl, reportedly with a large increase in local radiation (https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-invasion-6f4b2da3c9623b7f1bf8f250a73a1bb5). They possibly have taken staff (civilians) hostage: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chernobyl (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chernobyl)
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-24-22-intl/h_e1c58950cd78614bc578a4c3a6515a2c (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-24-22-intl/h_e1c58950cd78614bc578a4c3a6515a2c)
Russian invaders took control of Snake Island, killing all 13 Ukrainian border guards. The guards will be awarded Hero of Ukraine posthumously. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Snake_Island (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Snake_Island)
QuoteRussian invaders took control of Snake Island, killing all 13 Ukrainian border guards. The guards will be awarded Hero of Ukraine posthumously. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Snake_Island
иди на Ñ...уй - "Fuck off.", the message they gave to the Russians that told them to standdown.
Respect, if you have to die at least go out with a middle finger.
(https://i.imgur.com/n8rs8Sb.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/rWTjSi1l.jpg)
Yes.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 10:06:04 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/rWTjSi1l.jpg)
I mean this in the most complementary way... Ukrainians are some absolute mad lads.
I have gleaned from history that dictators have a key disadvantage. Their yes men and women rarely say what they really think out of fear of being labelled a dissident or traitor. The result is poor info and decisions. Who wants to tell Hitler the truth, that his favorite plan is stupid? Especially when the last one that was truthful is suddenly gone.
Quote from: Shiranu on February 25, 2022, 12:53:53 PM
I mean this in the most complementary way... Ukrainians are some absolute mad lads.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/t1eoio/ukrainian_soldier_sends_message_to_russian/
Definitely not the kind of people to mess with.
Siege of Kiev has begun, with Russian armor now reported in the city and explosions and light arms lighting up the suburbs The longer they can hold out, the longer Russian morale, which is already seemingly low, can drop.
Ukraine reportedly shot down Russian military transport plane (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-united-nations-kyiv-6ccba0905f1871992b93712d3585f548) Filled with paratroopers and about 40km south of Kyiv. Now it's just a mass grave.
Fun fact: it seats about 126 paratroopers
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 09:15:15 PM
Ukraine reportedly shot down Russian military transport plane (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-united-nations-kyiv-6ccba0905f1871992b93712d3585f548) Filled with paratroopers and just 40km south of Kyiv. Now it's just a mass grave.
Fun fact: it seats about 126 paratroopers
Yep, second one of the Il-76s shot down. Eyeballed it carried a hundred, so good to know got some bonus kills as well. That should be about 300 dead paratroopers at least now.
Ukranian president said they managed to repeal that latest attack.
https://twitter.com/UkranianNewsNow/status/1497396903884984321
And there went any optimism and hope I had; Putin has begun mobilizing fucking Chechnyan barbarians to come do the dirty work; and whereas the Russians have seemingly been trying to limit damage (neither wanting to be there nor viewing Ukraine as the enemy)... I don't expect those fucking fleas to share that same mindset.
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1497183703935688733
In reality, Ukraine has little strategic value to the EU and US, but Putin sees it as a strategic neutral buffer. If Russian folks see a thriving democratic and free Ukraine next door (and that was starting to happen) that is pretty bad for Putin. He probably wants to knock them down hard more than anything else. A long war would be a disaster for Russia.
Quote from: Cassia on February 25, 2022, 11:04:41 PMIn reality, Ukraine has little strategic value to the EU and US, but Putin sees it as a strategic neutral buffer.
Lebensraum
QuoteIf Russian folks see a thriving democratic and free Ukraine next door (and that was starting to happen) that is pretty bad for Putin. He probably wants to knock them down hard more than anything else. A long war would be a disaster for Russia.
Exactly. It would undermine his regime.
NATO has activated its response force for the first time ever (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/595876-nato-activates-response-force-for-first-time-in-history)
Two Russian MPs are calling for an immediate end to the war, and judging by Putin's demeanor and speech... I think he might actually be starting to get nervous that it's not going as smoothly as hoped and that those around him are growing tired of his excuses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8kkeztq70c
Yeah, Ukraine has a strategic value, but I don't think Putin; the Russian military strategy has ever seen Ukraine special as a region in some sophisticated development that would be a threat if advanced, rather just breaking a first step. (If developing democracy was any power to stop something, the country I live in wouldn't be in this position right now. Seriously, there is simple a 50 years between us now and 20 years ago.) Invasion of Ukraine is going to make it all clear for Russia to move on or not. They knew there wouldn't be a unified military resistance, and so we can be sure there won't be when going South. In the end everything is discussed from EU or US- Western angle, which looks normal because they are the powers with the military will and power to stop it if they do. In the end, NATO is built against them.
So why not just take Ukraine and start to move on to Georgia and go on from there down to Turkiye, Iran, Afghanistan, China, Mongolia... Any kind of action of moving to West would be the very last phase, wouldn't it? They can always go on sending 'Islamic' terrorists into central Europe anyway.
The worst case scenario, until they reach Turkiye (Bosphorus is a global strategy point), Iran and China... who is really going to do what? That process would also push everyone to take clear sides. I mean real, hard military sides, not political, economical "I'm gonna show you" stuff. Russia has never relied on those in peace time anyway.
Quote from: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 02:04:12 AM
Two Russian MPs are calling for an immediate end to the war, and judging by Putin's demeanor and speech... I think he might actually be starting to get nervous that it's not going as smoothly as hoped and that those around him are growing tired of his excuses.
Can you bottle that optimism and send it to me? Until he really fails on the ground, don't you think trying to interpret the daily demeanor of a genocidal psychopath is a bit wishful thinking?
My sweetheart still thinks the US and NATO missed an opportunity when a younger Putin was asking about joining NATO. We decided to punish and largely ignore Russia instead. Ukraine is the slow-motion trainwreck of a result. And yeah, depending how it plays out there are other nearby pebbles in Putin's boots.
Quote from: Cassia on February 26, 2022, 09:48:21 AM
My sweetheart still thinks the US and NATO missed an opportunity when a younger Putin was asking about joining NATO. We decided to punish and largely ignore Russia instead. Ukraine is the slow-motion trainwreck of a result. And yeah, depending how it plays out there are other nearby pebbles in Putin's boots.
(Lol, I like it when you do this.) Yeah, similar talk goes down with friends and all. Some blames the US, some says it was a matter of time, some claims bad policies kind of made Putin right by 'cornering' him, and there are tons of despicable shitbags in social media I don't want to even talk about. I wish we could send them to Putin.
Anyway, somebody said something like that Russia wanted to be 'invited' into Nato with a special place (considering its military power?) rather than joining as a regular member, but then they thought otherwise because obviously it wouldn't happen. So it was supposed to be just a policy for a while. I don't know and I don't care either.
Russia wouldn't be in a powerful place like this if it was really cornered. Honestly, this traditional comeback to every event in the world with "America's doing!" has gone stale baack when I was in my early 20s. Yeah, Uncle Sam is the biggest genocidal psychopath, but so all the fucking countries in the region. They just cannot afford to do it in that scale and that successful. Everything's America's doing.
Quote from: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 11:11:14 AM
(Lol, I like it when you do this.) Yeah, similar talk goes down with friends and all. Some blames the US, some says it was a matter of time, some claims bad policies kind of made Putin right by 'cornering' him, and there are tons of despicable shitbags in social media I don't want to even talk about. I wish we could send them to Putin.
Anyway, somebody said something like that Russia wanted to be 'invited' into Nato with a special place (considering its military power?) rather than joining as a regular member, but then they thought otherwise because obviously it wouldn't happen. So it was supposed to be just a policy for a while. I don't know and I don't care either.
Russia wouldn't be in a powerful place like this if it was really cornered. Honestly, this traditional comeback to every event in the world with "America's doing!" has gone stale baack when I was in my early 20s. Yeah, Uncle Sam is the biggest genocidal psychopath, but so all the fucking countries in the region. They just cannot afford to do it in that scale and that successful. Everything's America's doing.
I agree with him that dealing with the US cannot be easy. We go from Bush to Obama to Trump. That is like three different countries right there. And also, we get tired of our "commitments" to freedom and just leave. We are split right down the middle on ideology and have insurrection and 2nd rate social services. I hate to say it, but this century feels like a big slide down for the US so far, unless we get some smart effective leadership soon..
Quote from: Cassia on February 26, 2022, 11:46:04 AM
I agree with him that dealing with the US cannot be easy. We go from Bush to Obama to Trump. That is like three different countries right there. And also, we get tired of our "commitments" to freedom and just leave. We are split right down the middle on ideology and have insurrection and 2nd rate social services. I hate to say it, but this century feels like a big slide down for the US so far, unless we get some smart effective leadership soon..
Yeah, I get it. More than I can express. I hope it will turn around at some point. You have the resources.
Guys, you don't mind me. I'm exhausted, can't sleep. The people, the media here is so disgusting, I swear I wish the bastard would throw a few around here at certain targets. And I'm sick of being blamed of supporting the American Empire. Yes because the morons think their country is something else. You know, something nonemperial ffs.
What if he really gets a painfully embarrassing failure, and attempts on mass killing?
idk if it's too late to answer this, but yes... putin will invade ukraine.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-miscalculation/amp/
Hopeful writing. Not unbiased. Not wholly comforting.
Yet Hopeful. Which is something, at least.
Russia bans words ‘invasion’ and ‘assault’ in media, warns several outlets
https://theworldnews.net/il-news/russia-bans-words-invasion-and-assault-in-media-warns-several-outlets
Quote from: drunkenshoe on February 26, 2022, 02:13:07 AM
Can you bottle that optimism and send it to me? Until he really fails on the ground, don't you think trying to interpret the daily demeanor of a genocidal psychopath is a bit wishful thinking?
If I could, I would.
In some more positive news, the Ukrainians apparently ambushed the Chechnyan butchers, killing one of their top generals. Don't know if Kadyrov himself is leading his little warband, but god would that make my day to hear he is nothing more now than a steaming pile of guts and goo.
https://twitter.com/WarNewsPL1/status/1497655637471207425?cxt=HHwWgoCptcH33sgpAAAA (https://twitter.com/WarNewsPL1/status/1497655637471207425?cxt=HHwWgoCptcH33sgpAAAA)
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/946501664855175178/947249912150650930/unknown.png)
(For those that don't know Kadyrov's... exploits... scroll down to the "Accusations of Human Rights Abuses" and following tabs to get an idea of why I will celebrate when that demon dies.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov#Boston_Marathon_bombing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov#Boston_Marathon_bombing)
If he was dead, we would hear about it by now as a separate piece I think. I haven't seen anything around here. Fingers crossed.
E: There was something about him wearing Prada today though. So he was there. Aha.
E: Nope, not him.
The new SWIFT sanctions, in theory, seem good (if still not enough): A large, large percentage of the Russian Central Bank's holdings are kept overseas, and they've just been locked out; if Japan does the same (as it seems they will) then a large majority of Russia's economy just got completely frozen.
Unfortunately this hurts your average Russian far more than it does Putin I think, but in the long-term... they know who's fault this, and I don't think the oligarchs or working class will forget.
At this rate even if Putin captures Ukraine... he might have cost the Russian Federation in return, which would be poetic that the ex-Soviet spy brought down Russia the same way the Soviet Union fell.
Quote from: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 05:08:38 PM(For those that don't know Kadyrov's... exploits... scroll down to the "Accusations of Human Rights Abuses" and following tabs to get an idea of why I will celebrate when that demon dies.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov#Boston_Marathon_bombing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov#Boston_Marathon_bombing)
Yep! I was just reading about that neckbearded POS last night. Chechnya sounds like Alabama if it had been taken over by the Taliban and then relocated to Russia. Dreadful place.
Hooboy, has it been a busy day today! I've seen a LOT of combat footage and seen St Javelin hard at work. Russian planes getting shot down, Russian tanks shattered into burnt pieces, Russian vehicles getting Molotoved, Russian troops captured (those Ukrainian outfits are fooling no one), etc.
Hell, even Russians are killing Russians. A Russian warship blew up a Russian warplane. (https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/802692.html) Dasvidaniya musor.
And the cherry on top is that reportedly, 5000 Russian troops have refused to serve in this conflict (https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497702921521311746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497702921521311746%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_202c9f98-9755-11ec-96e0-466cc6a29702%2F0).
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 26, 2022, 08:54:05 PM
Yep! I was just reading about that neckbearded POS last night. Chechnya sounds like Alabama if it had been taken over by the Taliban and then relocated to Russia. Dreadful place.
Mmm, add a little Mongolian-Tatar political heritage in there for more spice; as far as I can tell, the politics of the Chechnyan society has barely changed the last 700 years or so from the tribal Warlord system the Golden Horde brought with them.
One of about 6 Slavic youtubers/Twitch...ers?... I watch, really painful to hear how just how ashamed he is to be Russian when it is not his, or his people's, fault. The Russian people are perhaps one of the most historically oppressed (mostly by their own) peoples throughout history, so as much as I despise Russia the political entity... the only strong feeling I have for them is sorrow.
As an American, I can certainly sympathize with him.
It's been strange watching protests against the illegal occupation of Ukraine in Israel of all places. There was a little blurb about George W Bush talking about the "unprovoked and unjustified invasion" of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBA6ev5HMe4
https://youtu.be/TgrsxinwUeA
Now that it's clear that the Ukrainians are holding their own, they're up for a fresh round of arms shipments.
Germany (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/): 1000 anti-tank weapons (panzerabwehrwaffen) and 500 Stinger-class surface-to-air missiles
Netherlands (https://www.rferl.org/a/czech-netherlands-military-aid-ukraine/31724987.html): 200 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
Czech Republic (https://www.rferl.org/a/czech-netherlands-military-aid-ukraine/31724987.html): machine guns, assault rifles, small arms (worth $8.6 million)
Belgium (https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698691): 3800 tonnes of fuel, 2000 machine guns
Slovakia (https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698691): artillery ammunition and fuel (worth $12.39 million)
US (https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-approves-350-million-military-aid-ukraine-2022-02-26/): third round of arms shipments, this one including anti-aircraft, anti-armor, small arms, body armor, various munitions (worth $350 million)
EU (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-coordinate-arms-shipments-ukraine/): seeking to coordinate new arms shipments on behalf of 27 nations
(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1213/8910/products/Thanks_Buddy_Keep_EmFiring_-1942-WorldWarII-PropagandaPostersmall.jpg?v=1586564320)
I don't pray, but tonight I just might.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/946501664855175178/947335459657371709/unknown.png)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ef4YeB_Zbz0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Exjv_VMkNw
lol, I'm actually kinda starting to feel bad for the Russians.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 12:03:10 AM
lol, I'm actually kinda starting to feel bad for the Russians.
The sense of humor of the Ukrainians has been inspiring... well, the Ukrainians in general. I truly believe the world would be a better place if it had a lot more of them in it.
Before tonight, I did too; the kids who are there now are just that... kids. Putin seems to be sending all the old Soviet junk with the youngest, most ignorant soldiers to soak up fire and get rid of the trash before moving in with the real human rights and war crime shit. Any Russians who come in after that first wave though, I have no more sympathy for. They have had time to defect or surrender, as many have already. If they want to keep going, then they have made their own bed.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/02/26/7326201/ (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/02/26/7326201/)
QuoteIn Kharkiv region, Ukrainian defenders found internationally banned cluster bombs with butterfly mines (the so-called "Lepestok" mines).
"They are dropping cluster bombs with ‘Lepestok’ mines. Their colour may vary. They are about the size of a finger. If you step on one, it will blow your leg off."
Venedyktova explained that ‘Lepestok’ mines are a type of explosives banned by the Geneva Convention.
According to her, this kind of weaponry had devastating effects when used in various armed conflicts of the 20th century.
Then these things have been spotted moving in Ukraine... if they fire these into a city, the collateral damage is going to be fucking horrific.
Geneva Convention violations. I feel significantly less bad.
Imho, any Russian soldier who sets foot in Ukraine deserves whatever happens to them. They were warned plenty. And any Russian politician who supported this deserves much, much worse. Everything that has happened is on their heads, bereaved Ukrainians and Russians alike know this. They better sleep lightly for the remainder of their lives.
Guys, come on. Soldiers do not make a decision to join any army training in most of the world, let alone on setting foot on a country to invade it when drafted. It's not the USA. Who knows how many soldiers in Russian army who don't want to be involved with this. Mandatory draft. Telegraph had a piece on thousands of Russian young men running away abroad for asylum to escape from it. And it is a very serious felony. Two years in military prison in Russia. Any takers? We have the same problem, and let me tell you, you don't want that for your worst enemy.
These people have families. It's not some case of "oh young men could run away". No, they can't. A little empathy please. And right now, countries should open borders and help those people to take asylum.
Eh, was going to explain my reasoning but it doesn't really matter since there is no objective reality on this... so in short...
QuoteA little empathy please.
I'm showing far more than they deserve; a quick and clean death is probably far nicer than what your average Russian grunt deserves, but I do sympathize that they don't want to be there. As for those who are intentionally butchering civilians and committing war crimes... it's not too late to bring back crucifixion I don't think.
Those that lay down arms and surrender should be treated with dignity and shipped West, to get them as far from Putin as possible... and so far, that seems to be how the Ukrainians are treating them. Can you imagine the Russians and the Belarusians doing the same?
Description of how the thermobaric weapons operate...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin-thermobaric-rockets-b2023880.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin-thermobaric-rockets-b2023880.html)
Quote“Imagine taking a deep breath then submerging yourself in water. Then imagine having all of the oxygen forced instantaneously from your body. Try to inhale again. But instead of cold water filling your lungs, toxic, flammable particles start killing you from the inside out,†he wrote.Only blasts caused by nuclear attacks are worse.
Russia has allegedly used these missiles in Chechnya and Syria.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMlRW9fVQAAJ-PZ?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Again... a clean death is far nicer than what these people deserve; it was used in Grozny, Chechnya and apparently is as horrifying as it's made out to be.
I wasn't specifically reacting to you. But we don't need some objective reality. Under the presented circumstances, we can be sure there would be many soldiers who would not be there given a choice. There are everywhere. It seems to me that you are confusing people who see it legitimate, more, honourable to slaughter, torture, annihilate people in the name of nationalism, and people who has to be there without any choice. And I'm talking about the soldiers who has to obey, NOT the ones who decide to fire which weapon. That makes all the difference if you want some objective point. Without any choice part is very real and often ignored by the people who were raised in western cultures because it is hard to put your mind in. I'm not trying to provoke or ire, this is a fact. It's as impossible for you to imagine to be in their situation, as it is for me because you are lucky, and I was a born as a woman. Well, this is not gender studies, but again, a fact. As far as I'm concerned, it goes for everyone but drafted combat soldiers.
With that former group, I agree with you wholeheartedly and could offer much worse as punishment.
The human culture is overly militarised even in the most 'civilised' countries, and this is a huge bleeding issue with young men of ages between 18-25. Kids. Doesn't matter what age, it's a crime against humanity. The military concepts, traditions, nationalism -obey or die- is so deeply carved into human culture, it's almost seen as those young men do not have a right to step out of this.
War. Once you step in it, it's always the worst that happens. There is no clean one. I just wish people would remember that these drafted national soldiers are not mercenaries. There are the worst kind of mercenaries in every army, but there is a ton of them nobody hears-sees-listens that aren't and don't want to be there. They can't talk, run away or do anything else. They do not have any means to raise their voice without fundamentally ruin or alter their lives, subject themselves to horrible circumstances. You can be sure that even another ton of soldiers who foolishly thinks this was legitimate, until immediately seeing what war really is, but cannot get out of it. They can demand to be dismissed in the US, right? Honourable or dishonourable? This right doesn't exist in the most national armies, until they are considered a real threat for their own.
And imagine what's going to happen when surviving ones go back home. Most will commit suicide, or shell shocked, live as a corpse and as generations will change, they will be blamed by young people who do not understand their situation. Exactly like drafted American kids who were called 'baby killers' when the government has continued for years and years, knowing they are sending them to be slaughtered, to a lost war.
Sorry, it became too long. Long story short, I'm just saying that demonising is never a good idea.
At first, I thought the invasion of Ukraine would be a replay of Hitler walking into Poland and simply taking over. Now I'm reading about massive Ukrainian resistance in the face of being out manned and out gunned, but this is all from the Western press. Even if Ukraine makes a valiant effort, I don't see any positive outcome for them. And I'm suspect of the the Western press, so I'm not getting my hopes up.
Putin is a first class schmuck. He may have gone nuts. But sometimes an asshole is just an asshole, and not crazy. Who knows?
Yeah, it looks odd to me too. The moment I want to get my hopes up, I keep thinking, 'over four thousand dead Russian soldiers at one side while just a few hundreds at the other'. It's just been 3 days and it feels like weeks, may be that's the reason. Then I also agree that it could be another strategy against the invasion to support Ukraine. I hope it is nothing sinister.
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2022/feb/27/take-note-of-right-wing-leaders-who-stand-with-put/
Quote
Donald Trump calls Russia’s attack of Ukraine a stroke of genius by Vladimir Putin and says it offers a lesson to the U.S. about how to treat Mexico.
Big egos think alike.
I'm a lot less sympathetic to "just following orders" reasoning post-WW2.
Even Putin claims that he had no choice, that Ukraine's decisions forced "desperate measures" (blaming the victim). It's an obvious transfer of moral culpability and yet another thing reminiscent of Hitler.
At a certain point, my sympathy can no longer be extended, and that point was the deliberate targeting of civilians. Russian troops are fully aware of this or else they wouldn't refuse orders, as some have.
It always gives me a laugh when any particular ordinary citizen posting on forums uses the pronoun -we- when they are talking about their country.
It also gives me a big laugh when people posting on forums whether or not they agree with some action of any country on the international level.
Catching some Zs (https://i.imgur.com/Ri3x990.mp4) (abandoned Russian convoy, free loot for Ukraine)
Snake Island border guards may be alive (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-snake-island-soldiers-b2024289.html)
Free tanks, too. (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t2lmk3/civilians_in_good_mood_allegedly_captured_russian/) You know what this calls for? Road trip!
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 09:14:26 AM
I'm a lot less sympathetic to "just following orders" reasoning post-WW2. ...
If you got that from what I wrote, then you completely misunderstood my point. I clearly wrote about two different group of soldiers. Whatever Putin keep saying is the oldest propaganda in the book. Unless he was talking about his KGB days though. He is likely to know waay more about the other stuff.
High ranking soldiers/officials with power of creating atrocities are really not stupid, you know? That's why they are there. They know who to chose, or how to play that move if you will. There are many means of measuring/understanding which people in what group is suitable to do what, when. It won't do to put a man with a family after he is drafted in that position. It's stupid. But then, probably an old drill sergeant with certain amount of experience would very often be right about who to put to use/do what, let's say to use thermobaric weaponry or drop a nuke to kill hundreds of thousands of people. These soldiers are trained to commit these atrocities. They are not just drafted men to obey orders. Again because it would be stupid.
Are soldiers morally culpable for the orders they carry out?
If yes, then we agree and I must've misread the part about soldiers having no choice. Apologies. If no, then we disagree for the reasons stated above.
As a student of history, I have noticed a common strategy of sending 2nd rate troops in first as a gauge while holding the elite and more capable troops in reserve. Saddam did this. The US does the opposite. Is that we we are seeing so far?
Quote from: Cassia on February 27, 2022, 12:01:36 PM
As a student of history, I have noticed a common strategy of sending 2nd rate troops in first as a gauge while holding the elite and more capable troops in reserve. Saddam did this. The US does the opposite. Is that we we are seeing so far?
They were trying to rapidly capture Kyiv, which seems like an unlikely strategy with less-capable troops. And Russian special forces have been involved in the fighting so far. Either way is possible, I guess, but unless you hear otherwise, wysiwyg.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 11:51:02 AM
Are soldiers morally culpable for the orders they carry out?
If yes, then we agree and I must've misread the part about soldiers having no choice. Apologies. If no, then we disagree for the reasons stated above.
Of course, they are. The position of not having the right to conscientious objection is having 'no choice'. It's all the difference in the world.
This is so strange
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nifxKIhFSuw
Russian invaders run out of gas, head to local police station, get promptly arrested (https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497945813330411527)
In Ukraine, Gypsies stole a Russian tank (https://cwyc55.c97.org/en/news/2022/2/27/456612)
¯\_(ãƒ,,)_/¯
Quote from: drunkenshoe on February 27, 2022, 03:23:33 AM
Sorry, it became too long. Long story short, I'm just saying that demonising is never a good idea.
It's all good, and I think I agree with essentially all of it as well.
I don't see it as "demonizing" them though to wish them death as they are invading; as soon as they lay down their gun, go back across the border, the war is over, whatever... I have no ill will towards the vast majority of Russian soldiers and do feel bad for them. Poetically I think the closest thing I can really compare it to is sports; when your playing against someone, they are the enemy and you don't think about if they get hurt when you slide in to tackle them or kick near their face... but once the games over you might be close friends. It's demonizing more the job they are doing than the individual themselves.
Germany is beginning to beef up their own military, something they had renounced since the fall of the wall, and that both neither Trump nor Obama could convince them to do.
Quote from: Shiranu on February 27, 2022, 07:54:07 PM
Germany is beginning to beef up their own military, something they had renounced since the fall of the wall, and that both neither Trump nor Obama could convince them to do.
In Japan, Abe suggested that Japan start hosting US nukes (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/02/27/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-japan-nuclear-weapons-taiwan/), which is a hell of a reversal for Japan. Abe doesn't hold office anymore, and the idea isn't a good one imho for several reasons. But that this idea is even being discussed at all shows the depths of the outrage towards Russia globally and the war-footing stance the world is in now.
Ukraine and Russia agree to peace talks (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-peace-talks-zelenskiy-putin-hague/) (normally, peace talks are performed during a ceasefire but we live in interesting times)
QuoteThe announcement of direct peace talks, on the fourth day of all-out war in Ukraine, signaled that the Kremlin was feeling some pressure and potentially miscalculated that Ukraine’s military and government would swiftly collapse.
Putin had long refused direct negotiations with Ukraine to settle the eight-year war in Donbass, which Russia organized and financed. And initially, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had rebuffed the offer of peace talks, saying Moscow had set preconditions that effectively amounted to Ukraine’s total surrender.
A spokesman for Zelenskiy said that the answer to Moscow was the same expletive that Ukrainian marines used to insult a Russian warship before they were all reportedly killed. But by Sunday afternoon, there was a deal to meet at a checkpoint near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, and Ukrainian officials said all preconditions were dropped.
Russia initially set preconditions tantamount to surrender before talks. Now, Russia no longer offers preconditions. Very interesting.
And Zelenskiv's rebuff is pure gold. :D
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on February 27, 2022, 09:29:37 AM
It always gives me a laugh when any particular ordinary citizen posting on forums uses the pronoun -we- when they are talking about their country.
We - pronoun - A. "used as the subject of a verb to refer to a group including the speaker and at least one other person:"
...
B2. "used as the subject of a verb to refer to all people, especially when considered as a group:"
A saint I can get behind.
(https://images.thequint.com/thequint%2F2022-02%2Fa33c9cc3-59f2-4478-a4f7-d3d010ddbf35%2FFMj4At3WYAIgECN.jpeg?rect=0%2C0%2C1024%2C576)
First, disclaimer; probably doesn't need to be said, but take anything the Ukrainian gov't says about it's heroes with a grain of salt.
Second, I'm going to completely ignore my first point and believe this without a second of hesitation because it ultimately doesn't actually matter if it's one pilot or twenty.
https://twitter.com/Ibleed2toneblu/status/1497997855990157317
(https://i.imgur.com/ChK0cgg.png)
(Accidently cropped it, but source is the official Ukrainian Defense Ministery twitter)
Quote from: Shiranu on February 28, 2022, 12:00:31 AMFirst, disclaimer; probably doesn't need to be said, but take anything the Ukrainian gov't says about it's heroes with a grain of salt.
Even if it's not 100% real, modern wars are won more by PR and pressuring governments to take specific actions than by open combat. I believe that there is such a thing as good propaganda, one that leads people into bolstering democratic governments and sapping cooperation with dictators. And then, perhaps the lie can become the reality.
If I were to tell you that there's a bloodthirsty bear battering at your door and he's bulletproof and quick and you are doomed, what would you do? If instead, I told you that he is scared of loud noises and fire, that you can stab his eyes with a kitchen knife and he will run away, even if I do not know any of this for a fact, it might encourage you to make it so.
Just realized this is from 2016, but just for some positivity and non-war related stuff that's still Ukraine related...
Traditional floral crowns and outfits of the Ukrainian people. Absolutely beautiful, and just from a guestimation... probably dating back to Ukraine's pagan roots.
Putin insists there is no such thing as Ukrainian culture, just Russian, so in what small way I can I am trying to learn about their culture and have started trying to read a little bit of the language... just as a middle finger to him.
(https://www.sunnyskyz.com/uploads/2016/08/jdnpn-traditional-ukrainian-flower-crowns-treti-pivni-1.jpg)
(https://www.sunnyskyz.com/uploads/2016/08/fpeqo-traditional-ukrainian-flower-crowns-treti-pivni-2.jpg)
https://www.sunnyskyz.com/blog/1643/Ukrainian-Women-Bring-Back-Traditional-Floral-Crowns-To-Show-National-Pride (https://www.sunnyskyz.com/blog/1643/Ukrainian-Women-Bring-Back-Traditional-Floral-Crowns-To-Show-National-Pride)
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 27, 2022, 08:45:42 PM
In Japan, Abe suggested that Japan start hosting US nukes (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/02/27/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-japan-nuclear-weapons-taiwan/), which is a hell of a reversal for Japan. Abe doesn't hold office anymore, and the idea isn't a good one imho for several reasons. But that this idea is even being discussed at all shows the depths of the outrage towards Russia globally and the war-footing stance the world is in now.
Probably a response to Russia, China, North Korea being buddies
Bad Monday for Putin (https://www.cityam.com/not-a-good-morning-for-putin-500-russian-soldiers-killed-rouble-crashes-bankrun-in-moscow-russia-kicked-out-of-swift/) Russian advance slowed, Russian economy in turmoil, sanctions mount
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMqlRFMXsAMQhwQ?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://i.redd.it/ddcxqv134jk81.jpg)
https://youtu.be/fG9pxkZXiTw
Thought this vid was well spoken.
Zelensky addresses Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7GY1Xg6X20
To those who can hear me, I say - do not despair. The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed - the bitterness of men who fear the way of human progress. The hate of men will pass, and dictators die, and the power they took from the people will return to the people. And so long as men die, liberty will never perish…
Soldiers! don’t give yourselves to brutes - men who despise you - enslave you - who regiment your lives - tell you what to do - what to think and what to feel! Who drill you - diet you - treat you like cattle, use you as cannon fodder. Don’t give yourselves to these unnatural men - machine men with machine minds and machine hearts! You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts! You don’t hate! Only the unloved hate - the unloved and the unnatural! Soldiers! Don’t fight for slavery! Fight for liberty!
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on February 28, 2022, 07:28:26 AM
https://youtu.be/fG9pxkZXiTw
Thought this vid was well spoken.
Indeed. Things she said at the beginning about 'shredding' the economy, any policy for serving people and creating organised crime [for control, imo]...etc. is what I was trying to say in a deleted rant post yesterday. Corruption, crime is a very good weapons for dictators. Crime is a perfect tool for fear. Because that's how oligarchies thrive. It's a hierarchy from top to bottom.
But I disagree with the idea that the invasion attempt of Ukraine is a result of the 'resentment caused by failure' part. Dictators do not give a fuck about failing in this sense and manner. It's all about taking everything possible, building an empire on fear for power. People are just canon fodder, but nothing else. That's why the right wing and religious mentality cannot administrate any countries anymore. Period.
So I don't believe Putin has ever accepted the current borders. This was just a matter of time. Do they really think Putin -or his supporters- think he has failed? He is just mad he found this kind of resistance, esp. considering the latest shift in politics wide around the world. Mainly, Brexit, Trump...etc.
And this is not just Russia. Small or big countries, same deal is going on everywhere in Asia and Middle East. It's just, save a couple they cannot afford to do this.
So we've gotten to the part where the Russian advance has ground to a halt, Ukraine has been making something of a counteroffensive, everyone and their brother has divested from Russia, Putin is begging for no more sanctions while at the same time threatening to end Ukraine's existence as a sovereign state (this dude is like a couple months from swallowing a gun or getting strung up like Mussolini), oh and both Georgia and Moldova applied for EU membership.
We certainly live in interesting times.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 05, 2022, 10:28:55 PMSo we've gotten to the part where the Russian advance has ground to a halt, Ukraine has been making something of a counteroffensive, everyone and their brother has divested from Russia, Putin is begging for no more sanctions while at the same time threatening to end Ukraine's existence as a sovereign state (this dude is like a couple months from swallowing a gun or getting strung up like Mussolini), oh and both Georgia and Moldova applied for EU membership.
We certainly live in interesting times.
It's like a megayacht-of-the-day gets confiscated. Read somewhere even Sweden thinks NATO isn't such a bad idea... but who knows what is real anymore on all these insane new feeds.
Quote from: Cassia on March 05, 2022, 10:54:24 PMIt's like a megayacht-of-the-day gets confiscated. Read somewhere even Sweden thinks NATO isn't such a bad idea... but who knows what is real anymore on all these insane new feeds.
There was a blurb the other day about a big mansion being seized from an oligarch that could be used to house Ukrainian refugees. Now that would be quite a sight to see!
Red VS Red (https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/03/russian-troops-attack-and-destroy-their-own-troops-tanks/)
Do you ever wonder why we're here? No, I mean literally, why we're stuck in the world's worst traffic jam eating F-tier rations, no petrol, almost no ammo, and shooting at our own forces?
The invaders were reportedly gearing up to assault Kyiv, but the latest news definitely put that on ice:
- A Russian convoy near Kyiv was annihilated (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/7/7329096/) ("There is no need to be afraid. The Russian army is not strong, it is just long. We will eat them slowly, like a salami.")
- Another Russian fuel convoy annihilated (https://m.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/ukraine-russia-war-convoy-of-russian-fuel-trucks-destroyed-by-ukrainians-in-chernihiv-articleshow.html)
- Another Russian general KIA (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting-general-killed-b2030661.html)
- Ukrainians captured another airfield (https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1499778152108892162?s=20&t=M0DHgvMY_hJe29oKEBYFag)
- 30 (!) Russian helicopters destroyed on the ground (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-kherson-chornobaivka-airfield-military-invasion-russia-soldiers-1685404)
Suffice it to say that the war has not necessarily progressed to Russia's advantage.
At this rate, in two weeks they'll have to beg to be towed back to Russia (be sure to get the payment upfront, the ruble isn't looking so good atm)
Sadly, I do take both sides´ claims with a grain of salt.
But here is yo remaining Hopeful.
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on March 08, 2022, 07:11:35 AMSadly, I do take both sides´ claims with a grain of salt.
But here is yo remaining Hopeful.
From Hydra's Red vs Red article:
QuoteAccording to USA Today, thousands of Russian citizens across the country have risked prison to protest Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Since the invasion began, over 8,000 Russians have reportedly been taken into police custody for antiwar activities.
In response to the dissent, the Russian parliament passed a law on Friday allowing citizens to be punished for spreading what the Kremlin deems "fake news" regarding the invasion in Ukraine. Violators face up to 15 years in prison.
Russian officials have also forced journalists to call the attack on Ukraine a "military operation of demilitarization," essentially forbidding them from using the term "war."
"It becomes dangerous to cover news in Ukraine," Olga Bychkova, Echo of Moscow's deputy editor in chief, told USA TODAY. She noted that Russia's new law targeting speech is "blurry" and "allows authorities to go after anybody."
In reading this Western Press information, I have come to dislike Putin and the Russian Government more than ever, but I take all of this with a grain of salt too. It makes me wonder; When the US invades another country, what does the non-Western press read like? I'm guessing it too must be quite scathing and reproachful, but we don't have very good access to that over here.
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on March 08, 2022, 07:11:35 AMSadly, I do take both sides´ claims with a grain of salt.
But here is to remaining Hopeful.
Yes, as you should. However, both sides have different methods of reporting and distort the truth to vastly different degrees.
For example, Russia did not even report any war casualties early in the conflict (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/h_e639ac6b26088869e312d271cf790ff2) while every other source reported hundreds of Russian KIA, with a significant amount of footage to substantiate it.
Ukraine, in contrast, generally reports fairly truthfully, perhaps a slight exaggeration here and there; Ghost of Kyiv stuff. Their main technique is to portray Ukrainians in as a heroic and sympathetic light as possible, while showing russian forces as cruel or pathetic as possible. An adjustment that requires significantly less effort than their russian counterparts (https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putins-state-tv-stars-rage-about-getting-trolled-with-photos-of-dead-russian-troops-in-ukraine).
Ukrainian source:
(https://preview.redd.it/286g2bbilgl81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=8f25dfc1748984f9f7f4aefcafdfc284653ee147)
Russian source:
(https://preview.redd.it/cp95p9bilgl81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=1b0f51d8e714064b42876965285941bd205fe09a)
From my own posts, I generally report surprising developments, which can give a skewed impression of an endless string of Russian failures and routs - that the Russian military is a paper tiger that cannot do anything right. Obviously, this is not the case.
About 20% of Ukrainian territory has been successfully conquered and held. However, this amount has not changed much in the past week, which gives me some hope. There has also been a significant loss of life among Ukrainian civilian populations as well as a considerable amount of Ukrainian military KIA, which I note but intentionally don't draw attention towards because it can be very discouraging.
I'd much rather focus on russian defeats to give some amount of hope that the conquest of Ukraine is not a foregone conclusion, but something that can be prevented. And with each passing day, donated arms/equipment flows into Ukraine, foreign fighters (many are elite troops) flock to Ukraine's defense, more money pools into Ukrainian coffers while Russia's economy bleeds like a sieve, etc. Every day Ukraine stands firm - every day russian forces fail to gain much ground, every day that Kyiv stays standing - it becomes less and less likely that it will be conquered. Slava Ukraini!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWgiOgHhPbw
UK to donate its most advanced man-portable AA to Ukraine (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2F2022%2F03%2F09%2Fbritain-send-worlds-advanced-anti-aircraft-missile-system-ukraine%2F%3Futm_content%3Dtelegraph%26utm_medium%3DSocial%26utm_campaign%3DEchobox%26utm_source%3DTwitter%23Echobox%3D1646846132)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starstreak
When deployed, this could further weaken Russia's already weak air raids (they switched to night attacks for "enhanced survivability") and further split russian convoys from their air support.
A surprisingly accurate description of the war on Ukraine... from a year ago, and from Russia.
https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/
According to Pat Robertson, the REAL reason Putin decided to invade the Ukraine is because God compelled him to, so that God could get the end times out of the way. To be clear, Pat Robertson isn't saying that Putin is right to invade the Ukraine, but that God is basically pulling the same heart-hardening trick he pulled on the pharaoh, when he made the pharaoh go after the Israelites, just so he could kill him. In this case, Pat thinks Putin obtaining control of the Ukraine will get him one step closer to Israel...somehow. And that will officially kick off the apocalypse.
Ukrainians launch a counterattack against russian forces east of Kyiv, eliminate another russian commander (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/drone-footage-russia-tanks-ambushed-ukraine-forces-kyiv-war)
Another huge setback for russian invaders' goal of taking Kyiv.
And military experts seemed surprised the unexpectedly poor tactics among the russian forces, racing through open road without caution or infantry support only to run face-first into an entirely predictable ambush. Putin admitted to using conscripts, so poor training is likely a big factor in their failure, though it doesn't explain the notably subpar equipment, logistics, and communications. I feel misled by their much more competent portrayal in the movies.
Russia complains that China refuses to supply aircraft parts (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fbusiness%2Faerospace-defense%2Frussia-says-china-refuses-supply-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10%2F)
QuoteAgencies including Interfax quoted Valery Kudinov, a Rosaviatsia official responsible for maintaining airplane airworthiness, as saying that Russia would look for opportunities to source parts from countries including Turkey and India after a failed attempt to obtain them from China.
lol, good luck trying to get them from a NATO country. India is a little more realistic.
After sanctions hit Russia hard, they've been relying heavily on China for succor, not unlike North Korea. This gives China a significant amount of leverage. I wouldn't be surprised if years from now, Russia had become largely dependent on China and taken on a somewhat subservient role. Russians have long regarded China as a little brother. That dynamic could be reversed in the future.
Quote from: Shiranu on March 10, 2022, 11:10:30 AMA surprisingly accurate description of the war on Ukraine... from a year ago, and from Russia.
https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/
And.. he is an church trashing atheist and stunningly vampyrish.
Quote from: Cassia on March 10, 2022, 08:01:35 PMAnd.. he is an church trashing atheist and stunningly vampyrish.
How this guy still has a place in Russian media, much less in Russia period, is beyond me. Apparently he use to be the modern equivalent to the court jester for Putin, his opposition and criticism being a thing of amusement rather threat like it is with others.
Third Russian general KIA in Ukraine (https://www.businessinsider.com/third-russian-general-killed-invasion-ukraine-claims-2022-3)
Biden to revoke Russia's trade status (https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/biden-revokes-russia-favored-trade-status/)
US to send $13.6 billion in military/humanitarian aid to Ukraine (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-approves-bill-ukraine-aid/)
(https://i.redd.it/j3zkdhd1exm81.jpg)
I read that Russians primarily consume govt. TV. Do they really believe it? After seeing what happens here, I think yes, most probably do.
Quote from: Cassia on March 12, 2022, 10:56:28 AMI read that Russians primarily consume govt. TV. Do they really believe it? After seeing what happens here, I think yes, most probably do.
Unclear.
Thousands have protested the war or otherwise shown their displeasure (like the viral clip of the Russian pilot publically calling Putin's invasion criminal). It's safe to assume that these people do not agree with the pro-invasion state media.
On the flip side of the coin, there are calls from russian soldiers to relatives who seem genuinely surprised to learn that the Ukrainians aren't welcoming them with open arms and that Russian forces have intentionally killed civilians.
The plurality, I suspect, are somewhere in the middle. Confused and generally aware that the situation is not good, but not privy to much details and/or feeling powerless to express any opinion at all.
They're misled successfully to some degree, but they're not stupid. I assume that most Russians do not genuinely believe Putin when he says that the sanctions would've happened regardless (most countries make it through the day without getting sanctioned for no reason) and don't believe that Russia hasn't invaded anyone and the Ukrainians are firing upon themselves, as some officials have stated.
Putin's Big Lie strategy and its ability to fool only a fairly small subset of people already distrustful of facts reminds me a lot of a certain someone...
Freedom of speech in Russia (https://v.redd.it/86lr528a67n81)
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 12, 2022, 01:07:00 PMUnclear.
What's also unclear is the level of pro-war/[operation] support in Russia. A few thousand protestors doesn't represent a majority opposition. Although being arrested and detained could be a deterrent .... 15 years for media. The data is dirty.
If Zelensky cared about his people, he'd negotiate, not arm civilians and coerce them to their almost certain deaths.
Putin is evil. To put it in Biblical terms, Putin is zombie Jesus and this is Ukraine's Apocalypse. Repent or burn.
Quote from: Emperor Ronny Raygun on March 13, 2022, 11:59:16 PMWhat's also unclear is the level of pro-war/[operation] support in Russia. A few thousand protestors doesn't represent a majority opposition. Although being arrested and detained could be a deterrent .... 15 years for media. The data is dirty.
If Zelensky cared about his people, he'd negotiate, not arm civilians and coerce them to their almost certain deaths.
Putin is evil. To put it in Biblical terms, Putin is zombie Jesus and this is Ukraine's Apocalypse. Repent or burn.
That's what Pat Robertson says--God made Putin attack the Ukraine which puts his attack closer to Israel and hence the end times.
Quote from: Mike Cl on March 14, 2022, 12:14:54 AMThat's what Pat Robertson says--God made Putin attack the Ukraine which puts his attack closer to Israel and hence the end times.
Qanon needs to know about Putin's immaculate conception.
Quote from: Emperor Ronny Raygun on March 13, 2022, 11:59:16 PMIf Zelensky cared about his people, he'd negotiate, not arm civilians and coerce them to their almost certain deaths.
LOL, he's about to begin the fourth round of negotiations soon.
And afaik, those civilians are arming themselves because they're being invaded, which is kinda pretty typical when countries are invaded. What did you expect?
Suffice it to say that there's some quite passionate opposition to Putin's invasion.
Anti-war statement of Channel One editor Marina Ovsyannikova. Prerecorded, I presume as she is probably in jail or worse.
Assessment of Russian invasion of Ukraine from Chinese professor (https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/?fbclid=IwAR3qx4PpAIsGAMmOhnGnNVYxNWQjtE37hhSpNrNk27bET4xZBgISNDFnD98)
Long read but worth the time
QuoteI. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War
1. Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin's attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia's domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine's capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin's best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.
Extremely quotable: "A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little."
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 15, 2022, 12:50:55 AMAssessment of Russian invasion of Ukraine from Chinese professor (https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/?fbclid=IwAR3qx4PpAIsGAMmOhnGnNVYxNWQjtE37hhSpNrNk27bET4xZBgISNDFnD98)
The Chinese perspective may be close to spot on, but I doubt it will have any effect on the immediate situation, because I think Putin is a mad man. He reminds me of George Bush, but without a smarter vice president to lead him and orchestrate an effective propaganda campaign. I don't see any change in Putin's position as he meets unexpected resistance. He has just doubled down and changed his goal from a take over to utter destruction. And I don't think he envisions stopping with the Ukraine. I feel much closer to nuclear war than I did during the Cuban missile crisis. I'm hoping for Putin's assassination from an insider and a restructuring of the leadership. I said hoping. This is far from a prediction, but I see no positive resolution ahead; Just a lot of bloodshed and unhappy people in a world that is already suffering in chaos.
Three EU leaders (PMs of Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovenia) traveling to Kyiv to meet with Zelensky (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fthree-eu-country-leaders-take-train-kyiv-show-support-ukraine-2022-03-15%2F)
Both to reaffirm EU's support for Ukraine and to personally provide supply package.
Russia has lost about 40% of its units involved in Ukraine (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/16/war-in-ukraine-day-21-russians-lost-40-of-units-97-ukrainian-children-have-died/) (I assume this means vehicles)
(https://i.imgur.com/OaPRDwm.jpeg)
Ukraine and Moldova join European power grid (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-european-power-grid-russia/)
They were previously part of the Integrated Power System, which includes Russia and Belarus.
Now, Russia literally has no power over them.
Russian invader losses through 3/17 (https://v.redd.it/h37ge4i5nxn81)
🌻 🌻 🌻
Putin's military firepower seems so impressive, but intel, logistics and human emotional investment are just as important. I imagine the Russian soldiers might be sorta like Mussolini's soldiers. Many Italians thought they were on the wrong side. However, I can understand that soldiers do fight for their fellow soldiers no matter what but shelling houses, shelters and hospitals must be demoralizing.
*coughs* Hard to believe that they're losing.
Russia butthurt over Canadian ridicule (https://www.rawstory.com/r-2656990557/)
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 19, 2022, 10:25:46 AMRussia butthurt over Canadian ridicule (https://www.rawstory.com/r-2656990557/)
Ouch. Russia deserved that. Well, Putin deserved it. But my guess is that he will double down on the carnage. Putin will not be stopped by words. He has lost that ability. He's a baby throwing his toys in a baby fit. Unfortunately, he can't be ignored like we would a baby. He's dangerous. Uncontrollable, but dangerous. We have to invade Russia and stop him by force. Poland is next.
Russia announces decade-long sanctions on...itself. (https://zeenews.india.com/world/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-to-propose-10-year-ban-on-foreign-companies-that-dont-return-by-may-1-2446199.html)
Sean Hannity says Putin was channeling his "inner Trump" at cultish North Korean-style "rally" (https://www.businessinsider.com/sean-hannity-putin-channeling-his-inner-trump-at-moscow-rally-2022-3)
He certainly has been matching Trump's acumen lately
Btw, his trashbag of a jacket costs more than the yearly salary of the average Russian.
Fifth invader general takes a dirt nap (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-putin-zelenskyy-peace-talks-nato-live-updates-12541713?postid=3573140#liveblog-body)
Individual soldiers can fire hand-held weapons that have good odds against the current generation of tanks, choppers, or jet aircraft as they attack. Sitting in your tank just waiting for a fireball and your own ammunition to blow your head and turret right off. No doubt, chemical weapons are being considered by that POS Putin.
Belarusians sabotage rail lines leading to Ukraine, further frustrating Russian logistics (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1505260472492347395)
Putin's Next Target? The Moldova - Transnistria Issue
Ive long abandoned to follow up-to-date political news whether they are internal about Turkey where I live, or at the international level; Because if your source of information is the mainstream Western media, your brain space is invaded by all sorts of lie.
You just CANNOT know what is going on. Thus, Abandon it.
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on March 20, 2022, 06:05:42 PMIve long abandoned to follow up-to-date political news whether they are internal about Turkey where I live, or at the international level; Because if your source of information is the mainstream Western media, your brain space is invaded by all sorts of lie.
You just CANNOT know what is going on. Thus, Abandon it.
Understand what you are saying. What source of info do you use?
Quote from: Mike Cl on March 20, 2022, 06:57:16 PMUnderstand what you are saying. What source of info do you use?
Politics is not my area of interest.
Actually it is, but I am looking at politics a little high above just to see the bigger picture.
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on March 20, 2022, 07:27:16 PMPolitics is not my area of interest.
Actually it is, but I am looking at politics a little high above just to see the bigger picture.
That's nice. But what are your sources????
Quote from: Mike Cl on March 20, 2022, 08:20:59 PMThat's nice. But what are your sources????
Virtually all of them is English-language medium sources.
Quote from: Cassia on March 20, 2022, 04:03:30 PMPutin's Next Target? The Moldova - Transnistria Issue
Moldova is a distinct possibility (and Putin's Belarusian underling Lukashenko may have accidentally hinted as much (https://thehill.com/policy/international/596409-belarus-president-stands-in-front-of-battle-map-indicating-moldova)). Probably not coincidentally, Moldova applied for EU membership a week into the invasion of Ukraine.
However, the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) were likely on the chopping block (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/baltic-states-in-europe-fear-putin-has-them-in-his-sights.html) should Russia successfully carve up Ukraine, which miraculously has not come to pass. It seems crazy to attack the Baltic countries since all three countries are NATO members and Russia would not survive a confrontation with NATO. NATO is extremely hesitant to war against a nuclear power. Would Germans and English and French and Americans lay down their lives to protect Lithuanians? No doubt Putin has wondered this. They certainly weren't ready to do so when Georgia was under attack. Or Moldova. Or Ukraine the first time around. Would NATO sacrifice one of their own if the alternative was nuclear war?
A hell of a game of chicken, though. Risky. Though clearly, Putin's recent actions don't exactly reveal a risk averse psychology.
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on March 20, 2022, 08:24:40 PMVirtually all of them is English-language medium sources.
'Medium' sources--what's that? What is your favorite source?
Russian fighter-bomber enters Polish (NATO) airspace (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1505899309526622208?s=20&t=z6Zw8Hkb-88xNzFcERTwKg)
Shortly after Poland raised the possibility of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine.
Back atcha (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-captured-russia-missiles-fired-them-back-cnn-2022-3)
Well, I was going to share this article from pro-Kremlin sources because, buried in the article... it stated that Russian forces have so far sustained 9,861 casualties and 16,153 injuries - roughly 1/8th of the entire force. This is a massive difference from the 451 the Kremlin are still saying have been killed so far.
However, in the process of posting the article it was taken down and re-written to only list Ukrainian "Nazi" casualties and injuries, which all happened to be under 100... which means the Russian "de-Nazification process", by their own numbers, means they are killing at the very least 9 civilians for every 1 Nazi.
Of course, take any media out of Russia with grains of salt; however these numbers are consistent with what Ukrainian and Western intelligence is reporting, Ukraine reporting 2,000 more deaths and also 4000-some Wagner mercenaries killed.
Quote from: Shiranu on March 21, 2022, 03:42:48 PMWell, I was going to share this article from pro-Kremlin sources because, buried in the article... it stated that Russian forces have so far sustained 9,861 casualties and 16,153 injuries - roughly 1/8th of the entire force. This is a massive difference from the 451 the Kremlin are still saying have been killed so far.
However, in the process of posting the article it was taken down and re-written to only list Ukrainian "Nazi" casualties and injuries, which all happened to be under 100... which means the Russian "de-Nazification process", by their own numbers, means they are killing at the very least 9 civilians for every 1 Nazi.
Of course, take any media out of Russia with grains of salt; however these numbers are consistent with what Ukrainian and Western intelligence is reporting, Ukraine reporting 2,000 more deaths and also 4000-some Wagner mercenaries killed.
The dirty oligarch involved in Wagner is Yevgeny Prigozhin who also supported the son of Gaddafi. Wagner, the plausible deniability fun crew took wallop when US fighter jets went in to protect allies in Syria. These oligarchs are just stealing from the Russian people and causing trouble everywhere.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/verabergengruen/heres-what-we-know-about-the-us-airstrikes-that-killed
300 Russian soldiers bravely refuse to follow orders and leave Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/22/7333506/) (with 70 units of equipment, whatever that means)
Russia halts tank production due to sanctions (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506113379118764033)
Just as well, their prototype tank was destroyed in Ukraine (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44855/russias-only-prototype-t-80um2-tank-was-destroyed-in-ukraine)
Want to do a proper journalistic article (as best one can with no direct access to them) on Wagner Group (forgot what they go by now), because I don't think people realize just how disturbing this organization is... a "non-existent" Russian mercenary force that is named after Adolf Hitler's favorite composer and lead by a guy with Neo-Nazi tattoos. I might try to work on that today when I get home, but it will probably be a few days of research; I want to do it properly.
Until then, here is Russian President Adolf Hitler Vladimir Putin, who is currently waging war on a Jewish-lead country Nazi State and one of the commanders of the Neo-Nazi Regiment "non-existent mercenary group made up by the West", Dmitri Utkin.
Thank god Nazi Russia for free and progressive, Democratic Russia saving the day.
(https://i.imgur.com/r6571y2.png)
Yep, if Russia wants to denazify Europe, they should start with Putin.
Ukrainian forces seize Russian electronic warfare command post near Kyiv (https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1506310039363112961)
Could potentially make operations in northern Ukraine a LOT easier.
Birds of a feather... (https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-north-korea-discuss-developing-relations-2022-03-22/)
"My father said I'm a traitor who should be shot first" (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/15/my-father-said-im-a-traitor-who-should-be-shot-first-war-in-ukraine-splits-russian-families-a76937)
Quote"My father has been getting the news solely from television for more than 20 years, including watching Solovyov and Kiselyov's programs," Miroshnik said, referring to Russian state television's two most prominent Kremlin-loyal hosts.
"He quite easily believes in various conspiracy theories.
Imagine living in a country whose politics has deteriorated from western-style democracy to such an extent that a powerful fascist and his oligarch-fueled propaganda machine manipulates some people by declaring that real news is "fake" in order to make fake and ideologically-driven conspiracy theories seem equally plausible, stokes sectarian grudges, and splits families right down the middle in a downward spiral of corruption, militarism, and barbarism.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 22, 2022, 11:10:57 PM"My father said I'm a traitor who should be shot first" (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/15/my-father-said-im-a-traitor-who-should-be-shot-first-war-in-ukraine-splits-russian-families-a76937)
Imagine living in a country whose politics has deteriorated from western-style democracy to such an extent that a powerful fascist and his oligarch-fueled propaganda machine manipulates some people by declaring that real news is "fake" in order to make fake and ideologically-driven conspiracy theories seem equally plausible, stokes sectarian grudges, and splits families right down the middle in a downward spiral of corruption, militarism, and barbarism.
Yeah, imagine.................
The *roughtimate* livetracker amount the EU has spent on Russian oil since first invading Uka.
https://beyond-coal.eu/russian-fossil-fuel-tracker/
Another one bites the dust...
https://www.newsweek.com/alexei-sharov-russia-ukraine-kyiv-mariupol-general-putin-death-1690834
Ukrainian forces sure have been giving out a lot of promotions throughout this conflict.
I read that it's because the concripts/cadets have such poor training and/or morale that they have to have a commander nearby to operate in any sort of cohesive way. That weakness can be exploited by a skilled sniper...
Also, some armored units won't advance without artillery fire to throughly soften up the area first. That can also be exploited. Hence Ukrainian drones focusing on logistics and artillery targets first.
Maybe I spoke too soon. It seems that that invading Russian forces are giving themselves promotions (https://mobile.twitter.com/OscarNMFranklin/status/1506554660408209409) as well. Teamwork makes the dream work!
Yesterday, Ukrainian air defense took out 11 Russian air units (https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-air-defense-forces-claim-excellent-day-11-shoot-downs-in-24-hours.html): five planes, one helicopter, four drones, and one ballistic missile. Its most successful day yet.
Just fyi, Russia is notable in having a suspiciously high number of parachute failures (https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/3/10/458359/)... let's just say that Russian aces tend to go in the discard pile.
Today on things you love to see...
Russian man throws Molotov cocktail at the Kremlin.
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/tkteis/firebomb_attack_at_kremlin_as_man_seen_throwing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Meanwhile, on the other side of that wall... Ukraine caused Covid?
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tk59up/members_of_russian_policital_party_ldpr_announced/
Quote from: Shiranu on March 23, 2022, 04:13:33 PMMeanwhile, on the other side of that wall... Ukraine caused Covid?
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tk59up/members_of_russian_policital_party_ldpr_announced/
It's no accident that covid tinfoilery and Ukraine-as-the-bad-guy talking points are coming from the same quarters. (https://esoc.princeton.edu/publications/how-russia-china-and-other-governments-use-coronavirus-disinformation-reshape-2) It makes sense for an adversarial country like Russia to want to spread disinfo far and wide so as to exacerbate covid's economic impact on its rivals and to favor its own vaccine. Especially if they had dug their hooks into one of the two major political parties in the US (like say, funneling money through the NRA to curry influence), then this disinfo campaign would get amplified and would be able to achieve a life of its own.
Essentially, civilians lured a Russian tank convoy into an ambush, Ukrainian forces blew up the tanks with british anti-tank weapons, surviving Russian soldiers briefly took shelter in a local's house (bled all over the place) before running away under the cover of darkness.
An utterly humiliating defeat.
(https://preview.redd.it/wmhnmrkkk6p81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=d46151805a8553f1b844dc04fba3c013f9fcc4ec)
:popcorn:
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 23, 2022, 11:34:35 PM(https://preview.redd.it/wmhnmrkkk6p81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=d46151805a8553f1b844dc04fba3c013f9fcc4ec)
:popcorn:
I fucking love the Polish... well, everyone over there honestly who are just not having Putin's shit.
Russia had the audacity to claim that they "saved" Poland from the nazis in WWII. I'd give Ukraine an extra 5,000 antitank weapons just for that.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 12:20:04 AMRussia had the audacity to claim that they "saved" Poland from the nazis in WWII. I'd give Ukraine an extra 5,000 antitank weapons just for that.
I actually just watched this video for the first time a few days ago and really loved it (love the channel, if anyone loves history and hasn't checked them out... Extra History, Overly Sarcastic Productions and John Green are all awesome educators that approach it in the most "professor-ly" manner - Kings and Generals is good too, though often a little more military tactics related)
If by "saved" the Russians mean "We spent several months literally camped on the opposite shores of the Vistula River watching Polish people be butchered by Nazis until both sides were weak enough that we could swoop in and claim it as our own" then... sure, I guess they did that.
Also ignores a few massacres of the Red Army saying they "saved" Poland, but you know... those are details, and details are not relevant to reality.
Edit - Cant get the video to work on the forum, but it's Extra History - The Warsaw Uprising, about 11 minutes long and goes into the Polish resistance in the final days of Nazi-occupied Poland. They also have a 30+ minute series on the Polish Resistance, watched that a few years ago and really enjoyed it )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BjIYKq4CVk&t=162s
In Moscow, a woman was fined for a poster that read "fascism will not pass". (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506932701479190532?s=20&t=Cb_pqa9F-lCm85sP-Un6uA) The court ruled that the poster expressed a "negative attitude towards Russian Armed Forces".
(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/81029563/so-you-agree.jpg)
Quote from: Shiranu on March 24, 2022, 01:46:09 AMI actually just watched this video for the first time a few days ago and really loved it (love the channel, if anyone loves history and hasn't checked them out... Extra History, Overly Sarcastic Productions and John Green are all awesome educators that approach it in the most "professor-ly" manner - Kings and Generals is good too, though often a little more military tactics related)
If by "saved" the Russians mean "We spent several months literally camped on the opposite shores of the Vistula River watching Polish people be butchered by Nazis until both sides were weak enough that we could swoop in and claim it as our own" then... sure, I guess they did that.
Also ignores a few massacres of the Red Army saying they "saved" Poland, but you know... those are details, and details are not relevant to reality.
Edit - Cant get the video to work on the forum, but it's Extra History - The Warsaw Uprising, about 11 minutes long and goes into the Polish resistance in the final days of Nazi-occupied Poland. They also have a 30+ minute series on the Polish Resistance, watched that a few years ago and really enjoyed it )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BjIYKq4CVk&t=162s
The last paragraph in the Wiki article on the Katyn massacre talks about recent Russian attempts at revising history. This includes changing the official text of the memorial sites within Russia to say "Polish officers were shot by the Hitlerites in 1941." This despite the fact that they had already admitted guilt in the 80s and 90s. The current story is that the letter signed by Stalin authorizing the execution of more than 25,000 Poles, including most of the Polish military officer corps, and the rest of the 135 volumes of evidence supporting Russian culpability in these events were forgeries.
the youtube tag doesn't like the &t=162s
Russian warship destroyed (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337), two other vessels damaged.
That ship can fit up to 20 tanks. I want to believe that it was loaded to the gills when it went down.
And Ukraine's about to get more antiship missiles (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-24/u-s-and-allies-aiming-to-provide-anti-ship-missiles-to-kyiv-official-says) courtesy of the US and its allies.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on March 24, 2022, 09:45:48 AMThe last paragraph in the Wiki article on the Katyn massacre talks about recent Russian attempts at revising history. This includes changing the official text of the memorial sites within Russia to say "Polish officers were shot by the Hitlerites in 1941." This despite the fact that they had already admitted guilt in the 80s and 90s. The current story is that the letter signed by Stalin authorizing the execution of more than 25,000 Poles, including most of the Polish military officer corps, and the rest of the 135 volumes of evidence supporting Russian culpability in these events were forgeries.
Oof. Not surprised, but still surprised.
Ukraine has more tanks now than before the invasion (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-ukrainian-army-has-more-tanks-now-than-when-the-war-began-because-it-keeps-capturing-them-from-russia/ar-AAVryKz?ocid=msedgntp)
Ukraine
Lost: 74
Captured: 117
Net gain: 43
Russia
Lost: 274
Captured: 37
Net loss: 237
EU rejects Russian demand of rubles for natural gas (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/europe-rejects-putin-s-demand-for-natural-gas-payments-in-rubles-1.1742588)
So...let me get this straight:
* Russia wants to sell natural gas to Europe and Europeans were willing to buy.
* Russia has a weak, sanction-battered economy and could really, really use the money.
* Russia decides to impose a new condition to the transaction: payment must be in rubles only. This would make EU countries artificially inflate the ruble, effectively reversing their own sanctions.
* Naturally, Europeans say no, so now Russia is missing out on desperately-needed money in order to hike EU heating bills this...April?
Is there some 7d chess thing that I'm missing or did Russia just further sanction itself?
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 11:01:34 PMEU rejects Russian demand of rubles for natural gas (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/europe-rejects-putin-s-demand-for-natural-gas-payments-in-rubles-1.1742588)
So...let me get this straight:
* Russia wants to sell natural gas to Europe and Europeans were willing to buy.
* Russia has a weak, sanction-battered economy and could really, really use the money.
* Russia decides to impose a new condition to the transaction: payment must be in rubles only. This would make EU countries artificially inflate the ruble, effectively reversing their own sanctions.
* Naturally, Europeans say no, so now Russia is missing out on desperately-needed money in order to hike EU heating bills this...April?
Is there some 7d chess thing that I'm missing or did Russia just further sanction itself?
Now that I think about it, I have never heard anybody mention anything about the value of the ruble. I would imagine the oligarchs and Putin himself are all-in on the $US and Bitcoin.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 24, 2022, 11:01:34 PMIs there some 7d chess thing that I'm missing or did Russia just further sanction itself?
I'm not going to presume to know anything about all of this, because it often seems like economic thinking goes over our heads, which is odd because Economics 101 in college was a very straight forward discipline, and easy to understand. But by the time experts and philosophers, are done with it, no one seems to even know which way is up. I think that's because economics probably falls under the umbrella of politics, rather than science or logic, and it's primary benefit to society is that it can say anything you say it says, and blame anyone you want when it doesn't work right.
The way I heard it, if one lined all the economists up end-to-end, they'd still point in different directions.
Russia considering accepting Bitcoin for its oil, gas exports as sanctions stiffen (https://13wham.com/news/nation-world/russia-considering-accepting-bitcoin-for-its-oil-gas-exports-as-sanctions-stiffen-crypto-cryptocurrency-ukraine-russian-energy-duma-pavel-zavalny)
Boy, I hope they do. We know how crypto works.
Russian troops run over their own commander with a tank after suffering heavy loses.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-attack-own-commanding-officer-after-suffering-heavy-losses/ar-AAVuUv2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1d093a105ed44d78918f523c398c7358 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-attack-own-commanding-officer-after-suffering-heavy-losses/ar-AAVuUv2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1d093a105ed44d78918f523c398c7358)
I uh... I think they might be getting tired of being over there.
Quote from: Shiranu on March 25, 2022, 07:54:22 PMI uh... I think they might be getting tired of being over there.
Not tired, tracked :P
Ukraine Says Russia More Open to Talks Because 'We Put Them in Their Place' (https://www.newsweek.com/podolyak-zelensky-ukraine-russia-abc-months-1691777)
Kherson, formerly firmly in Russian hands, is now contested territory (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/599799-pentagon-russia-has-lost-partial-control-of-first-captured-ukrainian-city)
There's a chance it could be returned to Ukrainian control very soon. It has huge strategic significance - it would block Russian land forces from advancing on Odesa as well as allow Ukrainian forces to strike at russian forces coming from Crimea or russian forces to the east.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/FD3C/production/_123882846_ukraine_counters_areas_map_24_03_22_640x2-nc.png)
Russian soldiers appear to be fixing makeshift cages to the turrets of their tanks in a crude effort to protect themselves against Ukraine's anti-tank missiles.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-soldiers-appear-fixing-makeshift-103343532.html
"Some Russian tanks seen with makeshift cages attached to them to protect against anti-tank missiles.
An expert told Insider that the cages are futile against modern weapons like the Javelin and NLAW.
The cages also disadvantage Russian tanks by increasing their visibility and adding weight.
Russian forces appear to be attaching makeshift metal cages to the tops of their tanks in Ukraine in a crude effort to protect themselves against anti-tank missiles.
Analysts say the cages are inadequate protection against the modern weapons used by Ukraine and demonstrate the Russian military's lack of preparedness for war."
Is the impossible happening--Touted Russian Army not all that good and not only being defeated but pushed back????
Love this quote: The saying always was that Russia has a large, modern army. We discovered that the modern part isn't very large and the large part isn't very modern. And the large part is increasingly getting smaller," Crump said.
QuoteAn expert told Insider that the cages are futile against modern weapons like the Javelin and NLAW.
The cages also disadvantage Russian tanks by increasing their visibility and adding weight.
Never interfere when your enemy makes a mistake.
I have to admit, I didn't expect the Ukraine to put up so much resistance. I guess people don't like it so much when they're minding their own business and some foreign country wants to charge in and take their stuff.
Quote from: SGOS on March 26, 2022, 10:16:54 AMI have to admit, I didn't expect the Ukraine to put up so much resistance. I guess people don't like it so much when they're minding their own business and some foreign country wants to charge in and take their stuff.
Russia telegraphed its invasion so far in advance (likely to intimidate and cause panic) that the Ukrainians had plenty of time to train and arm themselves (https://www.npr.org/2022/01/19/1073792421/ukraine-russia-attack-military) and the US was more than happy to provide (https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/10/ukraine-us-trains-army-west-fight-east/141577/). Ironically, the only people who didn't know about the invasion were the invading troops themselves.
TL;DR: Russia telegraphed a haymaker and got kicked in the balls mid-swing.
Another Russian general eliminated (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538)
That makes seven.
This one was at an airbase near Kherson.
Are they targeting generals? And why aren't those guys back at HQ making plans?
They're trying to get away from Putin?
Quote from: SGOS on March 26, 2022, 01:21:33 PMAre they targeting generals? And why aren't those guys back at HQ making plans?
Yes. One of the many benefits of unecrypted communications. ^_^
Ukraine intelligence estimated twenty generals at the start of the invasion. Somewhat less now, lol.
Some have been eliminated at command posts somewhat near the frontlines. Some pretty much at the frontlines. Apparently, it's a combination of poor troop morale and poor command&control.
Also, for some reason, they really like being near airfields.
It seems that there is a see-saw technology arms race between tanks and anti-tank weapons and right now the tanks are losing. Turkish leopard2 tanks recently got hammered pretty hard by ISIL so it's not just Russian tanks.
Quote from: Cassia on March 26, 2022, 05:40:42 PMIt seems that there is a see-saw technology arms race between tanks and anti-tank weapons and right now the tanks are losing. Turkish leopard2 tanks recently got hammered pretty hard by ISIL so it's not just Russian tanks.
Yeah, I think in many way tanks are outdated; to probably leave out way too much nuance, warfare has heavily shifted more towards tactical operations instead of all-out warfare... unfortunately instead of getting with the times, the Russians are going backwards... increasing indiscriminate bombing to just kill everyone instead.
it seems to me that tanks have improved since WWII--but not by as much as anti-tank weapons. Not nearly as much. Throw in drones (wish the nato countries would send a bunch of warthogs--slow and low flying aircraft that can tear tanks apart) and tanks are now sitting ducks. Hand held anti-tank weapons are now really much more technologically superior to tanks these days. Apparently the Russians have lost 10% of their tanks and it seems that those losses will increase, not slow down.
Drones really are gamechangers. A couple guys with decent binoculars and a relatively low-cost drone can take out a tank/apc. In terms of cost, there's no contest - a russian t-80 costs $3 million and a switchblade drone costs $6,000.
Tanks are probably good for the effect of shock and awe, especially in the face of unarmed resistance. I would think Russia would have more updated technology that they aren't using. Maybe they are just getting rid of all of their outdated military junk.
What's that saying about military powers making the mistake of training for the last war? Oh wait. That is the saying.
Quote from: SGOS on March 27, 2022, 07:44:59 AMTanks are probably good for the effect of shock and awe, especially in the face of unarmed resistance. I would think Russia would have more updated technology that they aren't using. Maybe they are just getting rid of all of their outdated military junk.
Apparently, the guy in charge of modernizing the military had to resign for some reason or another and his replacement went for much more modest goals. Add to that the rampant corruption and some funds were "accidentally" "lost".
They burned through much of their modernized tech in the first month of the conflict. They're actually getting rid of the outdated junk right now, de-mothballing ancient tanks and using missiles that have a high chance of being duds. It's basically like using tiny rocks instead of bullets at this point. Not an effective strat.
Russia's legendary Stalingrad tank division wiped out by Ukrainian forces (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F03%2F27%2Fukraine-bounced-back-embarrass-russia-recapture-bombarded-cities%2F)
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 27, 2022, 04:02:12 PMRussia's legendary Stalingrad tank division wiped out by Ukrainian forces (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F03%2F27%2Fukraine-bounced-back-embarrass-russia-recapture-bombarded-cities%2F)
Stunning. Just Stunning!
Very, very little positive in this video other than seeing the strength of both the Ukrainian people and their warriors. It's fairly graphic, gloomy and depressing overall though... but if you want to see what Ukraine looks like further out from Kyiv (while still not being a fraction as horrific as what places like Mariupol are going through)... this is a good video.
Irpin liberated! (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-forces-retake-control-town-irpin-says-local-mayor-2022-03-28/)
Kyiv gets even more breathing room.
Edit - Here's a handy map (https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/014B/production/_123913300_ukraine_kyiv_close_up-640x2-nc.png)
Russia no longer seeking to "denazify" Ukraine (https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626) (kill existing leadership and replace with dictator-approved puppets)
It is worrying that Russia insists that Ukraine not form any defensive pact with any other countries. If Russia no longer wants to invade Ukraine, that wouldn't be an issue. And if they still do, all the more reason to do so!
Turkish presidential spokesman says Russian demands of Crimea and Donbas are not realistic (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-28-22/h_51680a8ac00d3b885c3c7ec5ae9d526b)
Quote"These are the red lines for the Ukrainians in the Crimea and Donbas, and rightly so, because they pertain directly to Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. We have not recognized the annexation of Crimea as, like the rest of the world, even China has not recognized the annexation of Crimea ...They [the Russians] should really come up with some other ideas,"
Turns out Russian soldiers stirred up all that Chernobyl radioactive dust and didn't take any precautions while breathing it all in. Damn. Will Smith slapped the wrong guy.
Russia is withdrawing from the Kyiv area. (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1508855068531040267)
But don't break out the champagne, they're likely withdrawing in order to regroup to the east while the south goes back on the offensive.
This is likely due to the fact that Belarus has not invaded and Russian forces in the north are stretched too thin to attack Kyiv.
This regrouping effort could put already besieged cities to the east and south in even greater peril.
Also, Russia does not appear to be taking the peace talks very seriously, likely intentionally drawing out the peace process while the Russian military consolidates territory that it's unlikely to part with at the bargaining table. Russia can then call for a ceasefire at its leisure, build up a larger warchest, and because Ukraine is still without a defensive pact, Russia can invade again with greater peparedness and with greater success.
Ukraine warns negotiators not to eat or drink at Russia talks over poison concerns.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-warns-negotiators-not-eat-184852778.html
Putin will do absolutely anything he wants--and this is one of his favorite things to do.
'Ukraine is warning its negotiators not to eat or drink anything during peace talks with Russian counterparts amid growing concerns over the potential for poison.
"I advise anyone going for negotiations with Russia not to eat or drink anything, preferably avoid touching surfaces," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview with a state media outlet on Tuesday, according to The Washington Post.'
Roman Abramovich
Roman Abramovich
Dmytro Kuleba
Tue, March 29, 2022, 11:48 AM·1 min read
In this article:
Roman Abramovich
Roman Abramovich
Russian-Israeli billionaire businessman
Dmytro Kuleba
Ukrainian diplomat
Ukrainian soldiers chat in the front-line position close to Kharkiv, Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers chat in the front-line position close to Kharkiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine is warning its negotiators not to eat or drink anything during peace talks with Russian counterparts amid growing concerns over the potential for poison.
"I advise anyone going for negotiations with Russia not to eat or drink anything, preferably avoid touching surfaces," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview with a state media outlet on Tuesday, according to The Washington Post.
"Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and several Ukrainian negotiators had reportedly shown symptoms of possible poisoning from a previous meeting.
Abramovich along with senior Ukrainian negotiators showed symptoms of red eyes, constant and painful tearing and peeling skin on their faces and hands. Officials have said that Abramovich fully recovered from his symptoms."
Yep. Poisoned chocolate. Abramovich went blind for hours.
It goes without saying to not eat anything you didn't pack yourself, because poison is Putin's-go-to. A woman's weapon, as they say, though either a masculine or feminine bearing would be a step up from what Putin is - a craven villain, doomed to a craven villain's life then a craven villain's death.
And speaking of craven, Putin is holed up in his fuhrerbunker near the Urals. Meanwhile, Zelensky walks around Kyiv, consoling the wounded, addressing the world, and decorating heroes. Putin has no heroes under his command and never will.
"On Wednesday in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions, the Ukrainian military destroyed 10 tanks, 18 units of armored and 13 units of motor vehicles, as well as 15 artillery systems." - Source (https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/30/7335894/)
Ukrainian forces capture an advanced air defense/command vehicle (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44981/ukraine-captured-one-of-russias-newest-air-defense-systems)
Ukrainian forces shoot down three Russian jets (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/30/7335845/)
The part about Ukraine's untapped oil/gas reserves, especially near Crimea and eastern Ukraine, was particularly interesting.
(https://congressionaldish.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Ukraine%20shale%20formations.png)
(https://medianewsglobalvoices.files.wordpress.com/2022/01/20210717_wom963.png)
Ukrainian soldiers casually clear Russian minefield (https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ttng8v/ukrainian_military_clear_the_road_from_mines/)
They literally just slide them off to the side with their feet. Apparently, they're anti-tank mines and won't explode unless significant force is placed upon them. And yes, earlier, civilians were driving their cars down the road, weaving between the mines like they're on Jackass.
I can't tell if these people are badasses or the russian invaders are just colossally incompetent. Probably a little of both.
Australia (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/australia-send-armored-vehicles-ukraine-request-83801670) and Germany (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-okays-sale-former-gdr-infantry-fighting-vehicles-ukraine-2022-04-01/) to donate armored vehicles to Ukraine
West will also send artillery (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/31/west-to-send-more-lethal-aid-to-ukraine-uk-defence-minister-says)
A pair of Ukrainian attack helicopters conduct nighttime raid on RUSSIAN SOIL, attack an oil depot, burning 16 tanker trucks (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/01/ukrainian-attack-helicopters-just-slipped-into-russia-and-blew-up-a-fuel-depot/?sh=3201ebc8738e)
The material losses aren't exactly game-changing. But the morale damage, the idea that Russian forces aren't safe even in Russian territory, that Ukraine is not some partially-pacified doormat barely staving off Russian attacks on its own soil, but a well-equipped and well-trained military and they're often on the offensive. They're highly skilled and pissed off and they're coming for you wherever you are and sooner or later, they will find you.
I just hope it gets there in time to do some good.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 01, 2022, 09:49:03 AMA pair of Ukrainian attack helicopters conduct nighttime raid on RUSSIAN SOIL, burn oil depot and brew up 16 tanks (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/01/ukrainian-attack-helicopters-just-slipped-into-russia-and-blew-up-a-fuel-depot/?sh=3201ebc8738e)
The material losses aren't exactly game-changing, you can hardly blink without Russia losing 16 tanks. But the morale damage, the idea that Russian forces aren't safe even in Russian territory, that Ukraine is not some partially-pacified doormat barely staving off Russian attacks on its own soil, but a well-equipped and well-trained military and they're often on the offensive. They're highly skilled and pissed off and they're coming for you wherever you are and sooner or later, they will find you.
Plus, you know, it´s done at about exactly the time that putin and his cronies declare that they´ll be ´lowering hostilities´ to kiev because the first part of demilitarizing ukraine is supposedly over.
Then, as they are pulling back forces from the North because they actually can´t keep them fed and fueled and motivated; bam russia gets hit in a strategic target.
It´s a humiliation of the worst degree flying in the face of putin´s propaganda.
I saw elsewhere that Ukraine is alleged to have bombed a fuel depot 20 miles inside Russia. If true, it's sauce for the goose, afaiac.
US to donate Soviet tanks to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-will-work-with-allies-transfer-soviet-made-tanks-ukraine-ny-times-2022-04-02/)
Most likely T-72
The Allies are looking to send tanks and artillery to Ukraine because Russia plans to consolidate its hold on eastern and southern Ukraine and permanently occupy those areas. The Ukrainian counteroffensive needs armor and artillery and planes to drive them out.
Russian forces no longer threaten Kyiv (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/1/2089450/-Ukraine-update-Russian-military-presence-northwest-west-and-east-of-Kyiv-has-ceased-to-exist)
Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel now firmly in Ukrainian control
In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces destroyed (https://t.me/KyivIndependent_official/2439) 8 tanks, 44 armored vehicles, 16 military vehicles, 10 artillery, and 3 drones.
Near Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces shoot a Russian helicopter with an anti-tank missile (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3446478-ukrainian-paratroopers-destroy-two-russian-mi8-helicopters.html), which crashes into another Russian helicopter, destroying both helicopters.
Two-for-one special!
Two Russian battalions quit war (https://mobile.twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1510484768638574597?s=20&t=pesdDhpjrRwrmTmFm762Rg)
Not sure on the exact numbers, but we're talking hundreds of soldiers simply returning back to Russia.
Russia losing so much equipment in Ukraine that weapons monitors can't keep up (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-ukraine-military-equipment-losses-b2046501.html)
I don't like talking about this stuff, but Ukrainian forces liberating russian-ravaged areas have uncovered horrific crimes against humanity.
In Bucha, all males aged 18-60 that they could get their hands on were mass executed. Killed dogs for fun, killed children, tortured both adults and children, etc. Other stuff that I can't even go into here. If you can think of it, they've done it, and more besides.
In fact, the parallels to the nazis are too obvious to ignore. And apparently, this was planned from the start.
Suffice it to say that I no longer consider Russian invaders to be manipulated/used by Putin and therefore pitiable. I consider them to be active participants in crimes against humanity and whatever dark fate awaits them in Ukraine is richly deserved. Only by surrendering to Ukrainian forces or leaving Ukraine do they prove their humanity.
QuoteSuffice it to say that I no longer consider Russian invaders to be manipulated/used by Putin and therefore pitiable. I consider them to be active participants in crimes against humanity and whatever fate awaits them in Ukraine is richly deserved. Only by surrendering to Ukrainian forces or leaving Ukraine do they prove their humanity.
Yeah, I haven't been in thread as much because what's being uncovered is really fucking disturbing even to me. Poland is saying they want American nukes on their soil, and I don't blame them... these are roving barbarian hordes, the same that brought down so many Western empires before and that countries like Poland and Ukraine have saved us from multiple times as well.
This is what average Russians think of Ukrainians - fuck even the soldiers, normal people in Russia are just as racist and disgusting.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tv36sp/heartbreaking_words_from_random_russians/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Across Europe today, pro-Russian rallies blocked streets as well.
Not being greeted with flowers drove Putin crazy (https://www.rawstory.com/putin-2657085652/)
QuoteAt first what he wanted was to change the power in Kyiv, put in his puppet and was expecting that this would be met with flowers thrown in the streets by Ukrainian people. When this did not happen he went crazy. The fact that the people in Kharkiv did not meet him with flowers, it not only just angered him, I really think it drove him literally insane."
Oh, but there'll be plenty of flowers one day. Great fields of them all across Ukraine. Men and women will laugh and cheer among them on the day that this wretched dictator dies.
2 Russian soldiers die from poisoned food/drink provided by civilians (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-troops-killed-by-poisoned-food-alcohol-ukrainian-officials-2022-4?r=US&IR=T)
Might also be a good idea to "accidentally" leave a couple bottles of poisoned vodka where Russian troops are sure to find it.
Fuck Putin with an extra spiky pineapple. I was hoping one of Russia's elite would have Putin executed by now, in response to all the sanctions and inconveniences they have to put up with. If Russia won't take care of him themselves, someone needs to do it for them. Maybe drop Putin a Fat Man as a present.
I think Putin has gone nuts, as often happens when an unstable person is handed vast amounts of power. This could end in Mutually insured destruction, one final act of suicidal self glorification followed by mostly nothing.
(https://i.redd.it/petrzlwn3ir81.jpg)
Quote from: Shiranu on April 03, 2022, 02:58:36 PMYeah, I haven't been in thread as much because what's being uncovered is really fucking disturbing even to me. Poland is saying they want American nukes on their soil, and I don't blame them... these are roving barbarian hordes, the same that brought down so many Western empires before and that countries like Poland and Ukraine have saved us from multiple times as well.
This is what average Russians think of Ukrainians - fuck even the soldiers, normal people in Russia are just as racist and disgusting.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tv36sp/heartbreaking_words_from_random_russians/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Across Europe today, pro-Russian rallies blocked streets as well.
I had a Russian-born defector-professor as a lab instructor who was married to a Ukrainian defector. He used to always say "life is cheap for Russians". I understand better what he meant now. He also said our school had better lab equipment than the Russian space agency. I think that so many Russians are conditioned to dictatorship that they just can't advance. The younger ones maybe understand a little better about how bad it is.
Amongst other things...
Quote75.5% of Russians approve of the idea of a military invasion of the next country and believe that it should be Poland.
We are really suppose to believe this barbarian horde is going to stop at Ukraine? Really?
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64
QuoteDenazification is necessary when a considerable number of population (very likely most of it) has been subjected to the Nazi regime and engaged into its agenda. That is, when the "good people — bad government" hypothesis does not apply. Recognizing this fact forms the backbone of the denazification policy and all its measures, while the fact itself constitutes its subject.
Quote...
They are all equally complicit in the horrendous violence towards civilians, equally complicit in the genocide of the Russian people, and they don't comply with the laws and customs of war. War criminals and active Nazis must be punished in such a way as to provide an example and a demonstration. A total lustration must be conducted. All organizations involved in Nazi actions must be eliminated and prohibited. However, besides the highest ranks, a significant number of common people are also guilty of being passive Nazis and Nazi accomplices. They supported the Nazi authorities and pandered to them. A just punishment for this part of the population can only be possible through bearing the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system, waged as carefully and sparingly as possible relates civilians. The further denazification of this bulk of the population will take the form of re-education through ideological repressions (suppression) of Nazi paradigms and a harsh censorship not only in the political sphere but also in the spheres of culture and education.
I would call them orcs as many have, but that would be frankly an insult to orcs.
France looking closer and closer to electing the anti-NATO, anti-Immigrant, pro-Putin le Pen this coming election.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/world/europe/french-election-le-pen-macron.html
I am so, so, so fucking glad I didn't move to Europe when I had the chance... I really bought into this, "Ho ho ho, we Europeans are so civilized unlike you apish Americans" bullshit they sold when they support war criminals far worse than us.
Serbia and Hungary just elected Putin bootlickers (https://www.npr.org/2022/04/04/1090835656/orban-vucic-hungary-serbia-reelection-pro-putin-russia), so don't expect them to spring to Ukraine's defense, though they didn't have much of an impact either way.
Just bear it in mind as future sanctions targets (aiding and abetting crimes against humanity)
On the flip side of the coin, Allied countries are stepping up sanctions in the wake of the nazi-like massacre.
The US and EU are preparing to expand sanctions. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-eu-and-germany-preparing-more-sanctions-against-russia-after-evidence-of-atrocities-near-kyiv-11649032387)
Lithuania is boycotting all Russian gas and expelled the pro-genocide Russian ambassador
Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are set to close all roads to Russia/Belarus (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1510929257891041285)
Am not a war monger in any sense; war is generally not a good thing. But I do wish the US would step up and offer more in the way of supplies, weapons, and yes, personnel. We seem to easily get into wars with Iraq and such--businesses love it! I guess business does not like it for the Ukraine. We have a chance to make a stand against Nazi-like dictators; but then we don't even make a stand against our own nazi-like leaders. Lately it seems that the line between nazi-like politicians and 'democratic' ones is blurring.
QuoteLately it seems that the line between nazi-like politicians and 'democratic' ones is blurring.
Perhaps Hitler was on to something; maybe this really is the basic nature of man.Where he saw that as a glorious thing, I thought sane people viewed it as fucking horrifying.
I'm starting to think I thought wrong.
Quote from: Shiranu on April 04, 2022, 08:48:16 PMPerhaps Hitler was on to something; maybe this really is the basic nature of man.
Where he saw that as a glorious thing, I thought sane people viewed it as fucking horrifying.
I'm starting to think I thought wrong.
The receptivity of the great masses is very limited, their intelligence is small, but their power of forgetting is enormous. In consequence of these facts, all effective propaganda must be limited to a very few points and must harp on these in slogans until the last member of the public understands what you want him to understand by your slogan. -Adolf Hitler
Bucha Massacre is still not widely enough heard I guess though. That number will rise too. And I pretty much doubt it's just one.
Oops! Russian air force bombs russian ground forces (https://www.dialog.ua/war/249349_1649152568)
QuoteAccording to information received, Russian bombers carried out a night flight and could not distinguish the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Russian occupying troops by dropping bombs on the positions of the Russian military. Intelligence was able to establish that after receiving heavy losses due to the bombing of the commander of the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Colonel Andrey Kurbanov appealed to the commander of the Eastern Military District, Colonel General Alexander Chaiko with the refusal of air support for the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Requested no more air support, lol
Ukrainian forces use captured thermobaric rocket vehicle to annihilate russian forces near Izium (https://mobile.twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1511337378035679244?s=21&t=kykTSu5JHRXAWEvksDLNXQ)
Extra crispy orcs
Lone Ukrainian tank distracted and delayed Russian convoy long enough for artillery to partially destroy it, triggering a retreat (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1511382917712429056)
The first few minutes are on the Bucha Massacre so skip that if you don't want to hear about it again, but at 4:10 he starts talking and showing images about the living conditions of these Russian conscripts; that they live in parts of the world where a lot of the things they are looting (toilets, T.V.s, radios, washing machines, etc) are things that they either don't have or, just as likely, have never even seen in their lives.
Literally a 10th-world country.
I knew Russia lagged a bit on the ol' tech race, but I didn't think it was quite so bad. I mean, they have Instagram influencers and teens with cell phones and the Moscow metro is nicer than any subway system I've ever seen (I've only seen D.C. and Atlanta), so they're not North Korea level. Though with these ever-ramping sanctions (and ever-increasing war crimes), they might get there someday.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 05, 2022, 11:04:14 PMI knew Russia lagged a bit on the ol' tech race, but I didn't think it was quite so bad. I mean, they have Instagram influencers and teens with cell phones and the Moscow metro is nicer than any subway system I've ever seen (I've only seen D.C. and Atlanta), so they're not North Korea level. Though with these ever-ramping sanctions (and ever-increasing war crimes), they might get there someday.
Eh, I think they maybe are North Korea level... just on a much larger scale. The levels of brainwashing are disturbingly cultish like NK's and Moskva is sorta the Pyongyang of the old Soviet "Republic" - a gilded husk of a fortress ruling over vast expanses of wasted potential.
For a pariah state, North Korea sure has quite a few like-minded countries.
Glory to the heroes: Meet Charcoal (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-sniper-lady-death-charcoal-b2051925.html)
QuoteIn a message shared by the Ukrainian army, Charcoal vowed to punish Moscow's forces. "We must take them all out!" she said.
"These people are not human beings. Even the fascists were not as vile as these orcs. We must defeat them," she added.
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/04/05/01/56225109-0-image-a-10_1649118827728.jpg)
Hungary's Pro-Putin regime says it has no problem paying for Russian gas with rubles (https://www.businessinsider.com/hungary-leader-orban-breaks-ranks-eu-pay-russian-gas-rubles-2022-4)
Gotta feed that russian war machine.
Welp, pretty sure the cost of Russian tanks and other military gear to their arms-export market will have to be discounted in the future. Just saw a report that an anti-aircraft missile battery was taken out by a drone. Geez. Russia is the world's second-largest arms exporter after the US.
In positive news, the new war map looks much, much better for Ukraine:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPsqx9uWUAElhOh?format=jpg&name=small)
No more convoys to the NW and east of Kyiv. No more battle for Sumy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sumy). No more siege of Chernihiv (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Chernihiv).
Just from the looks of things, Kharkiv and Kherson are going to be the news a LOT in the near future.
US to lend-lease military equipment to Ukraine (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/06/senate-unanimously-approves-lend-lease-00023668)
We've only ever used this policy once before: against Hitler.
Friends like these: Belarusian border guards killed by Russian landmines (https://mobile.twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1511982561249091593)
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 09:17:47 AMUS to lend-lease military equipment to Ukraine (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/06/senate-unanimously-approves-lend-lease-00023668)
We've only ever used this policy once before: against Hitler.
This sounds like the right track. I hope we go all in and don't start fucking the thing up, as our leaders often do. This Putin Puttering shit has got to stop.
It's a positive step and also an indicator of Ukraine's chances: we wouldn't land-lease unless we believed the receiving country could win the war, and Ukrainian forces absolutely can win.
Russia has regrouped its forces and is proceeding more cautiously now, but it has already lost a lot of its equipment and skilled personnel. Throwing more tanks and cadets at Ukraine does not solve its problems. Especially since the Ukrainians are constantly buoyed by new shipments of aid. They now have Switchblade drones and the training to use them, so any future Russian convoys are in for a big surprise.
Still, this isn't a done deal for Ukraine - they need more armor and artillery to retake their cities. If the US expedites this, they absolutely could retake every last square kilometer of their territory.
Russia threatens Finland, says they would destroy their country if it joins NATO (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-finland-dzhabarov-ukraine-stoltenberg-nato-retaliation-1695854)
Russia threatens Japan, says it has the right to annex Hokkaido (https://regnum-ru.translate.goog/news/polit/3554235.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 10:31:32 AMRussia threatens Finland, says they would destroy their country if it joins NATO (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-finland-dzhabarov-ukraine-stoltenberg-nato-retaliation-1695854)
Russia threatens Japan, says it has the right to annex Hokkaido (https://regnum-ru.translate.goog/news/polit/3554235.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
They're getting desperate, huh? Bet Japan is shaking and crying from halfway across the world. Shaking and crying of laughter.
Quote from: Blackleaf on April 07, 2022, 11:32:45 AMThey're getting desperate, huh? Bet Japan is shaking and crying from halfway across the world. Shaking and crying of laughter.
Japan has been unusually belligerent towards Russia lately. Not just the normal righteous indignation and anger that all free nations feel about Ukraine, but something more personal. These repeated provocations at the Northern Territories (Kurile Islands) truly angered Japanese leadership, which it now calls an illegal occupation.
Russia's perceived attempts at damaging Japan's territorial integrity may be taken as very similar to its attempts to bully and steal land from its ex-soviet neighbors, which is highly insulting to Japan's status as a great power.
Suffice it to say that Japan has both a history of being on the receiving end of imperialism in general and a history with Russian imperialism in particular and will act accordingly if threatened.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 07, 2022, 12:26:01 PMSuffice it to say that Japan has both a history of being on the receiving end of imperialism in general and a history with Russian imperialism in particular and will act accordingly if threatened.
Japan has a history on both sides of the imperialism scales.
Since 1905 Russia and Japan have not been the best of buds. Russia really underestimated Japan then, much like Putin has misjudged the Ukraine.
Fun fact; this is the modern "Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces" that the head of the "Russian" - moved there from Kyiv after the Russian Empire annexed Ukraine a few centuries ago - Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, preached from to military commanders that they were holding back "the armies of satan" and saving the "Holy Russians" (Ukrainians) by... killing them?
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/875ba8801097858061c332bb491af0cfdda90511/0_90_4867_2921/master/4867.jpg?width=1020&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ed1d0b6ee65a83b5d208fd032f9cb658)
It's symbolism is steeped in WW2 iconography, with Soviet medals making up the mosaics and the floor being made of melted down war-trophies and tanks from Nazi Germany - all opened just a year or two ago to celebrate the 75th anniversary.
We really still pretending that the Soviets aren't still in charge over there? That people can look at this picture and tell me that "the Soviets don't exist anymore."?
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/43363ab1d9c0dbf19de6c239e71fc1f094aaa8c6/0_64_4421_2653/master/4421.jpg?width=860&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=f9cf3b779a1b877a1536ed8659c60b94)
Quote"Only a nation that loves God could build such a grand cathedral," said Bishop Stefan of Klin, who heads the Russian Orthodox church's department for cooperation with the army and regularly holds services at the cathedral, where he is the patriarch's designated representative.
The 59-year-old bishop, who was an officer in the Soviet and Russian missile defence forces before becoming a priest, defended the use of Soviet symbols, saying the cathedral depicted "all the epochs of our state, Holy Rus" and it would be wrong to leave out the second world war, given how many Soviet soldiers were religious.
But the imagery has proved controversial. "For many priests, who were young in the 1970s and 1980s and personally came up against the repressive Soviet machine, which targeted the church, they are in shock and they can't get over it," said Sergei Chapnin, a religious scholar in Moscow. "This is not really an Orthodox cathedral, it's a cathedral of our new post-Soviet civil religion," he added.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/20/orthodox-cathedral-of-the-armed-force-russian-national-identity-military-disneyland
Just remember to duck and cover. It is 100 seconds to midnite. Better off being vaporized.
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/
Quote from: Cassia on April 08, 2022, 01:18:32 AMJust remember to duck and cover. It is 100 seconds to midnite. Better off being vaporized.
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/
I remember this well. I was in third or fourth grade. And it was great fun practicing for the real thing. We would turn our desks on their sides so the top faced the windows, and hide behind them, while doing the same thing at any other time was a sure trip to the principal's office. Also, Tuesday morning at 10:30, Chicago and Suburbs sounded air raid sirens, I guess this was both a test and to remind us to think about where we would go when the bombers came.
Even at the young age, I knew what a nuclear bomb was, and I used to wonder when we practiced Duck and Cover how much good it would actually do. Then one day, the really smart people on the TV said, it probably wouldn't help much, and I said, "I already wondered the same thing!"
Ukraine uses "terminator" drones to terrorize Russian invaders (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-army-using-terminator-drones-scare-russians-retreat-1696192)
Quote"This clever, creative solution that our soldiers have found not to waste ammunition, not to waste artillery shells [is] ... take a commercial drone, with a camera, and camouflage it to look like something out of the worst Terminator movie," Novikov said. "So, it looks incredibly scary. Then they fly that drone around the place where the Russian soldiers are."
I saw footage from one of them. The russian invader panicked and ran as fast as he could to his 'base", which looked like a low-end homeless encampment. We're talking filthy mattresses and makeshift tents on the side of a road. His buddies start shooting at the drone and man, they are awful shots. Eventually, they hit it and the feed cuts out. Presumably, they were later paid a visit by Ukrainian forces or artillery.
Russian influencers (affluencers) destroy their own luxury handbags that they can no longer buy (https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1512105568625909765?s=20&t=TRfAkc0nGs-2mZqYuV-0gQ)
Sanctions can only halt western goods from flowing into Russia, they can't remove goods that are already there. So thanks for helping the sanctions have more of an effect. 👍
Estonia bans all Russian gas (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60991746?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=624eca09aea8d714b7409c2f%26Estonian%20government%20opts%20to%20dump%20Russian%20gas%262022-04-07T12%3A06%3A42.322Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:eb1f5906-d767-4b75-9e14-7c6dbcf31c88&pinned_post_asset_id=624eca09aea8d714b7409c2f&pinned_post_type=share)
Ukrainian forces wipe out elite Russian armored brigade (https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/04/ukraine-forces-say-they-defeated-elite-russian-armored-brigade/)
QuoteSOFREP reported the entire Russian unit never made it to Belgorod and the Ukrainian military's description of the unit as "scrap metal" could suggest the unit's near-total destruction.
Sounds like Ukrainian forces found them while they were trying to retreat/regroup and wiped them out. What I wouldn't give for the footage!
Slovakia sends S-300 air defense system to Ukraine (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fslovakia-gives-s-300-air-defence-system-ukraine-prime-minister-2022-04-08%2F)
I can't wait for the day till they have to watch those videos like the Germans did.
Putin-allied Azerbaijan foreign fighter unit in Ukraine wiped out (https://mobile.twitter.com/BVasylchenko/status/1512806045969698818)
More like Azerbyegone.
Russian shipyards halt production due to sanctions (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3453247-russian-shipyards-halt-production-of-ships-due-to-lack-of-foreign-components-intelligence.html)
April 9th Russian losses (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3453499-ukrainian-air-force-destroyed-13-air-targets-in-a-day.html):
3 planes
1 helicopter
9 drones
4 cruise missiles shot down
4 tanks
8 armored vehicles
7 motor vehicles (lol at this category)
Czech Republic donates unknown number of soviet tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, multiple rocket launchers, anti-air vehicles, etc (https://www.praguemorning.cz/czech-republic-sends-tanks-rocket-launchers-artillery-to-ukraine/)
NATO plans to permanently expand troop presence at Russian border (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2F2022%2F04%2F09%2Fexclusive-full-scale-nato-military-force-defend-borders%2F)
QuoteAs part of a major "reset", the relatively small "tripwire" presence on the alliance's eastern flank will be replaced with sufficient forces to repel an attempted invasion of member states such as Estonia and Latvia.
Speaking of Latvia, the Kremlin went on a weird, unhinged rant about wanting to "denazify" it (https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512491275630559244?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1512491275630559244%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-20706380201974456138.ampproject.net%2F2203172113000%2Fframe.html)after Latvia set aside a day to memorialize those massacred in Ukraine
I feel I've said it within the last year or two on here, but the more I researched Russia before the war... the more and more I saw just how similar we are... and some of the things he talks about do echo the path America is on (just taken to another extreme).
If Americans can take even 1 small thing out of this, it has to be that our current path of corruption, religious fundamentalism, ultra-conservativism and hatred ends at something not far off of Putin's Russia... and if we want to live better lives than them, we need to put the brakes on our own problems before they speed out of control (if we aren't past that point now).
Ukrainian forces destroy large column headed towards Izyum (https://m.censor.net/en/news/3332915/large_column_of_enemy_equipment_and_enemy_manpower_heading_towards_izyum_was_destroyed_synehubiv)
1/3 of Russian battle groups no longer capable of fighting (https://mobile.twitter.com/AVindman/status/1512975581578768392)
Quote from: Shiranu on April 10, 2022, 01:44:41 PMI feel I've said it within the last year or two on here, but the more I researched Russia before the war... the more and more I saw just how similar we are... and some of the things he talks about do echo the path America is on (just taken to another extreme).
If Americans can take even 1 small thing out of this, it has to be that our current path of corruption, religious fundamentalism, ultra-conservativism and hatred ends at something not far off of Putin's Russia... and if we want to live better lives than them, we need to put the brakes on our own problems before they speed out of control (if we aren't past that point now).
Liberals just have to re-learn to respect traditional liberal values such as free speech and constructive debate no matter their "feelings". This tip-toeing around just drives otherwise reasonable people to the wrong side.
Smile! You're on camera: Russian artillery takes incoming fire while still setting up (https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511867981596434434). Probably spotted by Ukrainian drone and fired upon by Ukrainian artillery before they could even do anything meaningful.
And if I'm not mistaken, it looks like a logistics truck got brewed up.
In early April (not long ago), Ukrainian commandos on speedboat captured several Russian vehicles (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-snar-10m1-radar-reconnaissance-station-of-the-russian-army-was-seized-in-ukraine/) (including a radar vehicle good at detecting tanks and especially useful for figuring out the location of enemy artillery. Hmmm...)
Too dumb to live: Russian soldiers bring back radioactive souvenirs from Chernobyl (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-took-radioactive-souvenirs-from-chernobyl-ukraine-nuclear-company-says)
I don't have the time to watch the vid right now, but from the title, it's exactly what we have been going through. "The country I grew up in doesn't exist anymore." Yeah...
Quote from: drunkenshoe on April 11, 2022, 01:27:25 AMI don't have the time to watch the vid right now, but from the title, it's exactly what we have been going through. "The country I grew up in doesn't exist anymore." Yeah...
Exactly how I feel! This is NOT the US I grew up in.
Quote from: Mike Cl on April 11, 2022, 10:01:37 AMExactly how I feel! This is NOT the US I grew up in.
There's a lot of that going around with the sweeping rise in nationalism and disinformation peddling.
If the global climate reaches borderline disaster mode and countries start fighting to the death for resources to survive; it may become very difficult to have a good day. Perhaps we are seeing glimpses of that now.
Quote from: Cassia on April 11, 2022, 02:03:46 PMThere's a lot of that going around with the sweeping rise in nationalism and disinformation peddling.
If the global climate reaches borderline disaster mode and countries start fighting to the death for resources to survive; it may become very difficult to have a good day. Perhaps we are seeing glimpses of that now.
Yeah, I've been thinking of that some lately. At my age, I don't think I have to be too concerned about that--but then, I think of the changes I've seen (and felt) within the last few years, and maybe I do have more to be concerned with than I think. Reminds me of an old Twilight Zone episode that shows how a woman deals with the rising heat level in New York City as Earth hurdles toward the sun. Are we there yet?
I'm sure you all know now that Russia used a chemical weapon in Mariupol. WMDs.
This escalation merits an appropriate escalation in sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine by the West.
In happier news:
Russian convoy destroyed near Izium (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513635812180643842) thanks to video by pro-Putin propagandist. Keep up the good work!
MIGs underway: Slovakia is transferring MIG-29s to Ukraine (https://domov.sme.sk/c/22882770/eduard-heger-vlada-rozhovor-olano.html)
Poland "accidentally" "loses" 100 T-72 tanks. Unrelated: about 100 T-72 tanks mysteriously find their way into Ukrainian control. (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513635812180643842) It's a mystery to everybody.
Putin says Bucha massacre is fake, his ally-with-benefits Lukashenko says it was done by the UK.
Putin says Russia will not be isolated from the West, then says it doesn't need the West.
What sort of idiot is supposed to believe these mutually contradictory ideas?! I've seen more competent propaganda from North Korea.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian messaging:
Some of you guys may know i´m a social worker, here in Belgium. I've mentioned it a few times.
I don´t feel like I have a right to actually complain. We are not the suffering country, we are a host country. But it´s been getting though at work.
Ukrainians have been coming to ask for and at our public center of societal welfare. And they are in their right to so. Luckily they´ve been granted the statute of ´temporarily displaced´. Something we haven´t had to use since Kosovo.
But the city i work at has, I fear, overreached. Local politicians promised to build an emergency Town with room for 600 people. That´s as many as antwerp has pledged and they are a far bigger city, wit thus more personel in their public center of societal welfare. We've also opened a hotel to 200 Ukrainians for emergency housing and there are many more being housed by well-meaning people who I fear have not correctly estimated how long this crisis will last and what such hosting actually demands. (Surely not all, but some have already kicked out families after a week because they didn't think it through and had acted and engaged themselves before thinking it through.) All in all they are estimating 2000 people to be hosted in our city alone. (For reference, there's less than 87.000 people living in the city.)
We´re basically drowning in work. We don't have enough people to handle the added requests for financial aid and get everything sorted and official in time. Let alone to give proper guidance, coaching and non-financial aid in adapting to society. Hell, there are fewer than 10 offical translators versed in Ukrainian in the entirety of Flanders alone. You can imagine the way this impedes progress; burdening these new people in dire need and the pre-existing cliënts all the same. I see the people in my team rushing to burn-outs if this is not handled soon.
We´ve been given extra resources, but the jobmarket for social workers has dried up for over a year and a half now. No-one can find staff. We are allowed to hire more people, but we can't find anyone to fill the positions. Not to say I can prove this objectively, but working at a public center of societal welfare in a city is one of the hardest places to work with the diploma as social worker. And it doesn't pay more than other government positions with the same diploma-qualifications. Nor can our employer just choose to use the non-utilized funds for three extra positions that we can't fill, to incentivize the rest of us with a bonus or a pay-raise.
Things ain´t going well.
...this is always the case when people allow themselves to be ruled by dictators. Any dictator from the gods and popes to hitler to pol pot to putin. misery is all that awaits. a giant swath of people crave to have a "strongman-in-charge". fuck that.
US announces $800 million more in military aid to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-announces-additional-800-million-military-aid-ukraine-2022-04-13/)
QuoteThe new security assistance package, according to the Defense Department, includes 11 Mi-17 helicopters that had been earmarked for Afghanistan before the U.S.-backed government collapsed and 18 155mm howitzers, along with counter-artillery radars and 200 armored personnel carriers.
This was the first time howitzers have been provided to Ukraine by the United States.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 13, 2022, 05:12:25 PMUS announces $800 million more in military aid to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-announces-additional-800-million-military-aid-ukraine-2022-04-13/)
Where we we getting Russian helicopters?
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on April 13, 2022, 05:15:23 PMWhere we we getting Russian helicopters?
Russia, apparently. (https://web.archive.org/web/20100622041236/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37793266/ns/politics-washington_post) LOL
In other good news, pro-Putin oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk was found and detained by Ukrainian Security Service (equivalent to Secret Service). He was previously under house arrest but escaped just days before hostilities broke out (suspicious). Since he is very close to Putin, he is a valuable bargaining tool. Moscow is not happy at all about this (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-zelenskyy-kyiv-business-1453669c4918e71051806e38f9d076c3), of course.
This guy's wiki page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Medvedchuk) is something else. He and Putin practically have matching tattoos.
The flagship of Russian Black Sea fleet has sunk. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/14/ukraine-russian-missile-cruiser-moskva-warship/)
Russia says it caught fire (spontaneously?) and its ammo exploded, but its crew evacuated safely and it's still afloat. (At least one of those statements is likely to be a lie)
Ukraine says they distracted it with a drone while they launched a missile that hit it and caused a fire that spread to the ammo.
Imo, it seems likely that there were casualties, from the initial strike and/or from the exploding ammo.
It should be noted that this Neptune anti-ship cruise missile system was domestically produced and just came online last year.
Near Izium, Ukrainian forces blew up a bridge while a Russian column was crossing (https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514473116994576385), inflicting significant damage to the convoy
Russian naval units are backing away from the Ukraine coast, lest they mysteriously catch on fire, too.
This just occured to me, but I doubt I'm the first to have such an epiphany:
Russian naval/land/air units aren't supporting each other most of the time, they're essentially fighting their own battles without coordination. No such thing as combined arms with Russia.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones and air forces are frequently supporting ground forces. And Ukraine gets phenomenal Intel, so they're often able to engage the enemy on their own terms - like hitting convoys while they're still en route or hitting artillery while they're still setting up, etc.
People love to compare numbers - tanks on the field, aircraft in the air, etc - but imo, there's a huge qualitative difference here to take into account as well.
Ukraine simply is doing more with less. And what few areas it has a definite advantage - like intel - is being put to fantastic use. Imagine what they could do with more!
Only 54 crew rescued from sunk Moskva out of ~500 (https://news247gh.com/only-54-crew-members-of-russian-warship-moskva-to-be-rescued-out-of-500/)
With the loss of the flagship Moskva and the assault cruiser Saratov (famously hit by missile while at harbor due to bungling propagandist giving away its position on video) the remaining Black Sea fleet is looking awfully vulnerable since they relied heavily on the flagship for anti-air and ant-missile defense. Let's hope nothing happens to further reduce the Russian presence in the area...
Speaking of more with less, one soldier, known simply as Wolf, single-handedly eliminated 12 Russian invaders (https://socportal.info/en/news/in-the-kyiv-region-a-local-resident-single-handedly-liquidated-12-occupiers/) in the Kyiv region.
He also helped evacuate civilians, including children.
Slava Ukrayini. Heroyam slava.
Yesterday in Donbas, Ukrainian forces destroyed (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/15/7339696/) 4 tanks, 6 armoured personnel carriers, 4 infantry fighting vehicles and one artillery system.
Fun headline: Russian warship sunken in Ukraine war may have been carrying a piece of the 'true cross,' a treasured Christian relic.
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-warship-sunken-ukraine-war-091746009.html
"The Moskva, Russia's Black Sea fleet flagship, sank on Thursday after an explosion.
Russian state media reported in 2020 that the ship was due to take a holy relic on board.
It's unclear whether the relic — a piece of the "true cross" — was on board when the Moskva sank.
The Russian warship that was confirmed as sunk on Thursday may have been carrying a holy relic when it went down."
I keep forgetting how the Russian Orthodox is beyond crazy.
QuoteI keep forgetting how the Russian Orthodox is beyond crazy.
In all honesty Russia as a country is just 250 years, socially and particularly politically, behind the West - they never had an Enlightenment, and while czars like Catherine and Peter brought the military advancements to the East with them... Russia never had a movement of men like Voltaire, Montesquieu, Locke, Kant, etc. who advocated for libertarianism and democracy.
What movements they did have were quickly shutdown; the biggest pro-democracy movement was the February Revolution of 1917 when the monarch was overthrown and a republic established; by October of the same year Vladimir Lenin began his purge of anyone who didn't submit to the party and the country would fall right back into civil war and then authoritarianism.
In all it's history, Russia has only had a (relatively) free people for 8 months - starting with the Grand Duchy of Moskva in 1263, that is 8 months out of a roughly 9100 months. It's no wonder they are the way they are.
Quote from: Mike Cl on April 15, 2022, 09:23:55 AMFun headline: Russian warship sunken in Ukraine war may have been carrying a piece of the 'true cross.
No problem. They sell those on ebay.
The video I've been waiting for.
Russia says they'll retaliate for the loss of their flagship. Against whom? They never said it was attacked!
US sends "unmanned surface vessels" to Ukraine (https://www.fedscoop.com/mysterious-robotic-ships-headed-to-ukraine/)
Quote"It's an unmanned surface vessel (USV) that can be used for a variety of purposes in coastal defense. I think I'll just leave it at that," Kirby told reporters
Quote"There's a wide variety of roles that unmanned surface systems could play, from helping to extend Ukraine's surveillance out further and further away from its coastline, to potentially aiding in the targeting of Russian vessels, to helping to sweep Ukrainian waterways of mines if Russia goes that route,"
QuoteSuch weapons could potentially include small missiles that are essentially "guided rockets," or machine guns. Alternatively, the Ukrainians could load the boats with explosives and ram them into Russian vessels like al-Qaida operatives did to the USS Cole in 2000, he said.
(https://wompampsupport.azureedge.net/fetchimage?siteId=7575&v=2&jpgQuality=100&width=700&url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.kym-cdn.com%2Fphotos%2Fimages%2Fnewsfeed%2F000%2F353%2F279%2Fe31.jpg)
Orcs destroy cemeteries in Kharkiv including a memorial for victims of totalitarianism (https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Ostapchuk/status/1515083876103856128?t=FIKehHJr93sw1jMAwXAkiQ&s=19)
What's the point of this in war? There is no point. It is done simply to cause as much destruction and hardship as possible while also destroying culture.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 16, 2022, 09:08:05 AMWhat's the point of this in war? There is no point. It is done simply to cause as much destruction and hardship as possible while also destroying culture.
That's what I've been wondering. There must be something Putin could do at home to make things better for Russia. Sometimes it seems like he just wants attention.
Quote from: SGOS on April 16, 2022, 09:16:48 AMThat's what I've been wondering. There must be something Putin could do at home to make things better for Russia. Sometimes it seems like he just wants attention.
If he wanted to, he could live a happy, peaceful life in extreme luxury every day for the rest of his life. Instead, he plots to poison people, carve up Russia's neighbors, throws Russia's men into a veritable meatgrinder (and Russia already has serious demographic issues), and threaten nuclear war.
Wealth has given him the opportunity to live whatever life he chooses. He chose this one. Wealth has revealed his character to the entire world.
Quote from: SGOS on April 16, 2022, 09:16:48 AMThat's what I've been wondering. There must be something Putin could do at home to make things better for Russia. Sometimes it seems like he just wants attention.
Does any dictator really want to make things better for the society they are 'leading'? I think all they care about is the gathering of power and personal wealth. Putin and Trump fit that bill.
We bombed our own villages to gin up a casus belli (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-soldier-says-putins-troops-bombed-their-own-people-in-bryansk-to-blame-ukraine-ukrainian-intel-says)
Not exactly surprising, but interesting to hear it them admit it.
Another Russian general pushing up sunflowers (https://bb-cntv.com/news/in-ukraine-the-deputy-commander-of-the-8th-army-died-paper-25038/) 🌻
Austrian Chancellor Nehammer stated that Putin believes he is winning this war.
Putin can block his people from knowing the truth, but he cannot block himself from knowing the truth, or from western media. What is going on this mans brain?
Quote from: ferdmonger on April 16, 2022, 09:58:02 PMAustrian Chancellor Nehammer stated that Putin believes he is winning this war.
Putin can block his people from knowing the truth, but he cannot block himself from knowing the truth, or from western media. What is going on this mans brain?
It depends on what you view as the war; if it's simply against Ukraine, he is losing it... badly.
If it is a war to see how far he can push his limits without any meaningful response from his opponents... then he is doing brilliant.
This war doesn't cost him, personally, a single cent; he will continue to be possibly the richest man in the world even if Ukraine pushed all the way to the border... and his money is mostly made by Western businesses that will continue to do business with either him directly or, more likely, shadow companies to avoid the publicity.
On top of that, he gets to emulate his hero Stalin and Lenin and commit genocide on Ukrainians without a real response from the West, something both of them did to disturbingly extreme levels. It's a no-lose situation for him at the moment, and the more the West allows him to grow comfortable... the more comfortable he is going to get (deeply profound, I know).
He's tested his limits several times before, and NATO has had peace in our time several times before - a piece of Georgia, a piece of Moldova (though that was before Putin), a piece of Ukraine...
This time, he got greedy and it hasn't quite worked out for him so far. He was not properly prepared for quite so much resistance - from Ukraine, from NATO members, and even to some degree, from Russians themselves.
But like Shiranu said, Putin personally loses nothing and Russia has sold its share of gas this year regardless of sanctions. And they have caused considerable death and destruction in Ukraine while the world looks on. Less destruction than Putin wanted, but there's always next time...
First European leader to meet with Putin since the election: Putin thinks he's winning the war (https://www.businessinsider.com/austrian-chancellor-karl-nehammer-putin-believes-he-is-winning-war-2022-4?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds)
There's a good chance Putin might be delusional. He apparently had a "greeted as liberators" mindset for the first few weeks which ended in a series of sackings and purges when he finally realized that wasn't true.
There's a good chance that he's ODing on his own propaganda. If so, that makes him even more dangerous. He'll escalate and do some very reckless things before reality finally comes crashing down on him.
It's been noted before but his mental parallels to Hitler are uncanny. We are always cautioned not do draw such parallels, but in general, I think it safe to say that great amounts of power can affect ones view of reality in ways that could be deemed insane. It may require a bit of being predisposed to such an outcome, but power is probably more personally harmful than drug addiction when possessed by the wrong person.
Friends like these: large shootout between Russian troops and Russian-allied troops (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1515629956495286275)
Russian anti-air production falling due to sanctions (https://mobile.twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1515679671752474625?s=21&t=IRSG7j48APABepJIZjV2tA)
Who's there is interest to give money to Ukrainian forces ? It's legal to do so in the majority of countries of the world.
Who's there is interest to write emails (Or letters and why not a public one) to politicians in European Union/AU/CA/CH/JP/NO/NZ/SG/UK/US (Not forget others countries that put sanctions) to suggest them new ideas of sanctions against Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus ?
When I say politicians in European Union. I'm speaking about those working for countries member of this union and those working in European institutions.
There are many potential targets like MP of national parliaments and MP of European parliament.
There are also head of states , prime ministers (Vice-president in some countries , some countries have one vice-prime minister or more) , members of governments , people (Businessmen for example) for which we know they have links with a person of interest (A MP in a national parliament for example) because these people can potentially influence people of interests.
I listed only a fraction of potential targets for which we can send emails or letters.
It's better to write to politicians of a country if you're a citizen of this country.
It's better to write to politicians working in European institutions such European commission if you're a citizen of an EU state.
Quote from: viocjit on April 17, 2022, 11:48:53 PMWho's there is interest to give money to Ukrainian forces ?
Every country likely to have russian "special operations" conducted in their country, which is nearly every country that borders russia.
Every country which would benefit from Russia's sphere of influence decreasing, which is the above plus pretty much every NATO/EU country plus some other countries with heavy western ties like like Japan and Australia.
Every country that imports grain from Ukraine, which is a LOT of countries.
And last but not least, any country horrified by land-grab expansionist militarism and genocide. Or maybe countries that just don't want trade disrupted by wars of aggression. That's pretty much everyone.
Virtually every country on the planet would benefit in some way - small or large - by both countries returning to a state of peace. And the best way to get there is for them to chip in and help Ukraine defend itself.
Google maps has un-hidden Russian military instillations. (https://t.me/hroniki_ridika/6238) The next 24 hours should be very interesting.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQo4hJUWYAkK-zu?format=jpg&name=small)
Either this is a hell of a glitch or the Russian airforce isn't quite as formidable as I thought.
Dirty deeds done dirt cheap: Ukrainian forces shoot down $15 million helicopter with $100 missile (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3460205-ukrainian-troops-down-15-million-enemy-helicopter-by-firing-100-missile-system.html)
QuoteWe did not want to waste a Stinger on them, so the Russian Ka-52 helicopter was shot down with an ordinary Igla
Ukraine has started receiving the $800 million military aid package from the US
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQg5eIFXIAQHAq8?format=jpg&name=small)
Prophetic video from before the conflict:
It talks about the Slava class (like the Moskva) packs a ton of weapon systems close together and all that dakka comes with maintenance, reliability, and safety issues. An ammo detonation could be catastrophic...
How long before Vlad starts tossing cruise missiles onto rail lines everywhere in Ukraine? And then keeps doing it while destroying entire cities... slow but sure.
His ground forces are crap. Terror from the skies is his fall back. He intends to grind Ukraine into into dust, slow but sure while 30 NATO nations watch.
Show this loser who's the loser.
It's all bluster at this point. The three day 'special operation' didn't work out, and it's too late to lob cruise missiles into Kiev. (Wouldn't be politically correct at this point.)
Enough blackmail and more offense.
Agreed. Putin keeps talking nukes, but he knows what would happen next if he went that far. He's just trying to threaten as always. It only works if you think it's credible and it's not credible. As reckless and amok this conflict is, Putin has been very careful so far not to attack any NATO forces. There's a reason for that.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 18, 2022, 10:04:09 PMUkraine has started receiving the $800 million military aid package from the US
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQg5eIFXIAQHAq8?format=jpg&name=small)
Not near enough in my opinion. We should start at 5 times that, and then assess.
Families of Moskva crew demand to know where they are (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/18/moskva-warship-need-answers-relatives-missing-crew-russia)
The Kremlin says it was fully evacuated, so where is everyone? Surely, they'd like to be reunited with their families.
Conveniently, reporting the sailors as missing or dead due to accident rather than killed from enemy attack avoids having to pay the family 7 million rubles (~$84,000) as promised, saving Moscow about 3.5 billion rubles (~42 million usd)
UK to send Stormer armored anti-air vehicles to Ukraine (https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/19/britain-to-deploy-stormer-armoured-missile-launchers-to-ukraine/)
They carry starstreak missiles, which are extremely fast missiles very good at hitting fast-moving air targets. So low-flying aircraft or helicopters are gonna get shredded.
Greece seizes Russian tanker (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fgreece-seizes-russian-tanker-part-eu-sanctions-2022-04-19%2F)
Ukrainian millionaire finds out Russian troops are holed up in his home via webcam, tells Ukrainian forces to bomb it (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ukraine-own-home-bombed_n_625e97b2e4b052d2bd66142b)
"Keep the change, ya filthy animal"
🌻🌻🌻
Finland will send more military aid and its contents/delivery method will be kept secret to ensure safe arrival.
Romania will soon be sending military aid (technically against its constitution, so it'll have to quickly amend its constitution to allow sending military aid)
The Netherlands will also be sending "heavier equipment" including armored vehicles to Ukraine.
The Czech Republic has offered to repair Ukrainian tanks/APCs.
Top supporters of Ukraine per capita (https://mobile.twitter.com/Ondrejcsak/status/1516402911932301316) Germany needs to step it up asap.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 01:46:37 PMFinland will send more military aid and its contents/delivery method will be kept secret to ensure safe arrival.
Romania will soon be sending military aid (technically against its constitution, so it'll have to quickly amend its constitution to allow sending military aid)
The Netherlands will also be sending "heavier equipment" including armored vehicles to Ukraine.
The Czech Republic has offered to repair Ukrainian tanks/APCs.
Top supporters of Ukraine per capita (https://mobile.twitter.com/Ondrejcsak/status/1516402911932301316) Germany needs to step it up asap.
Germany gives a lot more, as it is the 4th largest economy in the world. So that graph shows a pretty skewed view.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 19, 2022, 09:33:48 AMFamilies of Moskva crew demand to know where they are (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/18/moskva-warship-need-answers-relatives-missing-crew-russia)
The Kremlin says it was fully evacuated, so where is everyone? Surely, they'd like to be reunited with their families.
Conveniently, reporting the sailors as missing or dead due to accident rather than killed from enemy attack avoids having to pay the family 7 million rubles (~$84,000) as promised, saving Moscow about 3.5 billion rubles (~42 million usd)
That is truly shitty.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on April 19, 2022, 03:48:53 PMGermany gives a lot more, as it is the 4th largest economy in the world. So that graph shows a pretty skewed view.
Germany gives more in absolute terms - obviously, rich countries will give more than poorer ones. But as a percentage of GDP, it doesn't give nearly as much as many other european countries.
Here's the graph in absolute terms:
(https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/5/0/csm_UST_Grafik1_Laendervergleich_EN_f5a0c4ff9e.png)
Estonia was beating Germany in absolute terms a while back, though iirc that was only for military aid.
Blogger who knows what's up and has a plan...
Russia accuses US and West of dragging out 'military operation' (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61136997?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=625e8748b1e16c43aefe6a79%26Russia%20accuses%20US%20and%20West%20of%20dragging%20out%20%27military%20operation%27%262022-04-19T10%3A40%3A46.663Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:04b9197d-812a-48f6-bc86-54a7dfa4f36a&pinned_post_asset_id=625e8748b1e16c43aefe6a79&pinned_post_type=share)
QuoteRussia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has claimed the US and other Western countries are "doing everything to drag out Russia's military operation in Ukraine".
After a month of conflict and literal years of military aid to Ukraine - they finally cracked the code. Yes, the intent is to stave off occupation.
QuoteShoigu says the increasing volume of foreign arms supplies to Ukraine "clearly demonstrates their intentions to provoke the Kyiv regime to fight to the last Ukrainian standing".
Well, the last invader standing. The Ukrainians were already prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian standing.
France to offer Ukraine security guarantees after the war is over (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3462221-france-ready-to-provide-security-guarantees-to-ukraine-after-war-reuters.html)
Before the Moskva was sunk, it was headed towards Odessa to help capture the city (https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/04/19/7340798/)
QuoteOne of the surviving sailors of the cruiser "Moskva" told his mother that the ship was moving to Odessa to participate in the landing of paratroopers who were supposed to capture the city.
Ukrainian Security Service discovers abandoned cache of equipment/ammo worth $200 million in Kharkiv region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3462781-sbu-discovers-secret-warehouse-with-ammunition-worth-200m-in-kharkiv-region.html)
Quote"According to preliminary data, the components available there were intended for damaged Russian equipment, which the enemy was going to repair during the offensive. However, thanks to the resistance of Ukrainian defenders, the occupiers failed to take Kharkiv. Through the efforts of the SBU, the entire seized consignment of weapons will be used to protect our state," the statement said.
It was intended to fuel the russian war machine. Now it will fuel the resistance.
They might have dwindling stockpiles of precision munitions, but they have a nigh-endless supply of f-bombs :P
Jokey dubbing aside, they were ordered to massacre civilians but somehow had difficulty with that, faced terrifying attacks from Ukrainian forces (well deserved), ran out of supplies including food while the commanders got whatever they wanted (definitely some corruption issues), and finally, the half-starved soldiers were abandoned by their commanders and left to their own devices (definitely some moral issues, facilitating desertion, perhaps even bordering on fragging opportunities).
This speaks to serious command and control, logistics, and morale issues. Lots of stuff that Ukrainian forces can exploit, including the ability to record their conversations to know what they're up to in the first place.
Russia withdraws a battalion (BTG) from Ukraine due to heavy losses (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/20/7340824/)
QuoteDue to heavy losses, Russian forces withdrew the battalion tactical group of the 237th Tank Regiment of the 3rd Motorised Rifle Division of the 20th All-Military Army of the Western Military District from the Kharkiv region to its place of permanent deployment (Soloti, Belgorod region) to restore combat capability.
76 russian BTGs are active in Ukraine as of April 18th, so the loss of even one is fairly significant, though there are more in Russia either ready or in the process of reforming which could take its place.
Still, one less is one less.
QuoteIn the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repulsed 10 Russian attacks, destroyed 12 tanks, 28 units of armoured and 2 units of automotive equipment, and 1 artillery system. The Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down 9 air targets: 1 plane, 1 helicopter, 6 UAVs of various makes and a cruise missile.
The Ukrainian defenders have been busy. Although the invaders are using more cautious tactics, the defenders are more experienced at dealing with them and have the additional advantage of increasingly sophisticated gear/training while invading forces have suffered substantial losses of experienced soldiers/officers as well as lost equipment, which may or may not be adequately replaced.
Russian talking heads weigh in on the "special operation" (https://v.redd.it/s7a9qlxhytu81)
First, they say Ukraine is receiving NATO weapons (true)
Then, NATO is sending its soldiers to operate such weapons (not necessarily)
Finally, Russia is at war with NATO countries and winning (lol no. If they were, they'd know it. Casualties would be skyhigh)
North Koreans are less delusional. Russia can't take Kyiv, and they want Europe? Poland would chew them up and spit them out. Lunatics.
A few days ago, the Netherlands said it was sending "heavier equipment" to Ukraine. Now we're getting into specifics. (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fsebastienroblin%2F2022%2F04%2F21%2Fthe-dutch-are-sending-huge-german-armored-howitzers-to-ukraine%2F%3Fsh%3D767f2b619380) Specifically, they're sending German-built Panzerhaubitze 2000 long-range armored howitzers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000). These things are no joke and a hell of an upgrade from Ukraine's old soviet tech.
1) armored (as opposed to the field guns they've mostly been using)
2) relatively fast vehicle
3) fast firing rate, firing every 3-6 seconds
4) long range of 30-40km
This could be a game-changer. Russia's been relying heavily on bombardment tactics so far, since massed assaults are meatgrinders for them. Let's see what happens when Ukraine has better artillery backed by shared intel!
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 11:27:32 AMA few days ago, the Netherlands said it was sending "heavier equipment" to Ukraine. Now we're getting into specifics. (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fsebastienroblin%2F2022%2F04%2F21%2Fthe-dutch-are-sending-huge-german-armored-howitzers-to-ukraine%2F%3Fsh%3D767f2b619380) Specifically, they're sending German-built Panzerhaubitze 2000 long-range armored howitzers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000). These things are no joke and a hell of an upgrade from Ukraine's old soviet tech.
1) armored (as opposed to the field guns they've mostly been using)
2) relatively fast vehicle
3) fast firing rate, firing every 3-6 seconds
4) long range of 30-40km
This could be a game-changer. Russia's been relying heavily on bombardment tactics so far, since massed assaults are meatgrinders for them. Let's see what happens when Ukraine has better artillery backed by shared intel!
These along with the counter battery radar system they are getting from the US and the Netherlands should help a lot.
Apparently I've been focused on the wrong warzone. Lots of mysterious fires going on in Russia. Rough seas? (Too soon?)
Fire at weapons facility in Tver kills 7, fire at chemical plant in Kinesha (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/die-in-fire-at-russia-defence-institute)
Speaking of mysterious, 2 Russian oligarchs got the ultimate sanction (https://www.newsweek.com/oligarchs-murder-suicide-1699766). In both cases, they were found dead from violence along with family members and another family member found the bodies. Both men were tied to russian gas giants.
The first one was ruled a murder-suicide. Maybe that's correct. Maybe it's not. Who knows. But I'll tell you this, I'd bet 6-months pay that Putin knows.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 09:39:54 PMApparently I've been focused on the wrong warzone. Lots of mysterious fires going on in Russia. Rough seas? (Too soon?)
Fire at weapons facility in Tver kills 7, fire at chemical plant in Kinesha (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/die-in-fire-at-russia-defence-institute)
Speaking of mysterious, 2 Russian oligarchs got the ultimate sanction (https://www.newsweek.com/oligarchs-murder-suicide-1699766). In both cases, they were found dead from violence along with family members and another family member found the bodies. Both men were tied to russian gas giants.
The first one was ruled a murder-suicide. Maybe that's correct. Maybe it's not. Who knows. But I'll tell you this, I'd bet 6-months pay that Putin knows.
Needs more Polonium...
US to send $800 million worth of military aid to Ukraine (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3006912/more-howitzers-artillery-rounds-uavs-headed-to-ukraine/), including 72 howitzers, 144,000 howitzer rounds, and 121 Phoenix Ghost drones.
These new drones are particularly interesting. Similar to Switchblade drones, which essentially kamikaze enemy vehicles, but different. And especially intriguing - specifically geared towards Ukraine's battlefield situation in Donbas.
If I had to guess, I'd assume it could excel at destroying grouped vehicles. Or maybe it hands out travel brochures to the Red Forest. Either one would be devastating.
Ukrainian forces destroy 3 MLRS (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3464365-ukrainian-border-guards-destroy-three-russian-mlrs-air-defense-system-in-kharkiv-region.html), 3 planes, and 3 helicopters (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3464126-ukraine-army-downs-three-enemy-planes-and-three-helicopters.html).
Russia plans to steal land in southern Ukraine to link up with Transnistria, deny Ukraine the sea, surround Ukraine (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61188943)
The weird part is Transistria. Those are just separatists, right? Not some sort of pseudo-secret Russian-controlled enclave? So why would Moscow care about them?
France to supply 12 Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine (https://defence-blog.com/france-to-send-caesar-self-propelled-howitzers-to-ukraine/)
These things are no joke, either: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAESAR_self-propelled_howitzer
* fully computerized (so I assume extremely accurate)
* can fire 6-8 rounds per minute
* max range of 42km
* vehicle speed of 31mph-62mph depending on the terrain
40 Ukrainian soldiers arrived in France to train on them.
Ukraine's current artillery:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S7_Pion
And yes, it can theoretically fire nukes.
My hope is that enough firepower makes it to Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion. I'm sure that a lot of eastern Europe is with me on this. The whole thing is sickening.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on April 22, 2022, 10:50:28 PMMy hope is that enough firepower makes it to Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion.
So far, they're holding strong. The live map has a TON of russian bombardment, which is scary but doesn't appear to be particularly strategically significant *looks at photos of bombed livestock pen*
The good news is that Russian advances have failed and been turned back. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3465020-nine-russian-mbts-30-units-of-other-heavy-equipment-destroyed-in-ukraines-east-over-past-day.html)
QuoteOn April 22, Joint Forces successfully repulsed eight attacks by Russian invaders in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Ukrainian defenders destroyed nine tanks, three artillery systems, 18 units of armored and 13 units of other military vehicles, an armored combat vehicle, and a fuel tanker.
Air defense units shot down four Orlan-10 unmanned aerial vehicles.
Also, unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces bombed a Russian command post near Kherson (https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/5843). I'd LOVE to post more about that when it hits the press.
I've been reading reports that these advances are causing heavy attrition among Russian forces for minor territorial gains, if anything. And that this heavy attrition is rapidly degrading their fighting ability, so in time, they'll be so spent that Ukrainian forces will be able to fairly easily push them out, especially with the influx of western artillery.
(This is essentially what happened in Ukraine's northern front, which now no longer exists)
If so, this war could be over sooner rather than later.
Ukrainian artillery hits Russian command post, kills 2 generals, a third is grievously wounded (https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukrainian-forces-strike-russian-command-post-and-kill-two-more-generals)
That's 9 so far, maybe ten. Fingers crossed!
I'm really hoping that the armaments being sent arrive in time to cashier the Russian Army right the fuck out of Ukraine. It's a shame that said armaments weren't sent sooner, but I guess politics fuck everything up. It would have been nice to not see so much destruction; it's just sickening to me.
Turkey has closed its airspace to Russian planes carrying troops to Syria (https://www.timesofisrael.com/turkey-closes-airspace-to-russian-planes-flying-to-syria-despite-close-ties/)
Unlike European/American airspace bans, this one really hurts Russia. It turns a straightshot into a much more circuitous route, adding time and fuel costs. Bleeding rubles.
As you can see, Russian flights can't cut through Europe (https://www.businessinsider.com/map-shows-countries-that-closed-airspace-russia-over-ukraine-war-2022-3), so their only practical route is through Iran and Iraq, which is certainly not ideal.
Turkey's been the understated MVP in frustrating Russian aggression - blocking Russian warships access to the Black Sea and easy access to Syria.
Sure, Russia could try to pass through anyways, but Turkey is dead serious about shooting down Russian planes on their turf. They've done it before. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown).
My brother is really into that. Parkinson's, maybe?
I half-jokingly compared Putin to Phaeton from Exosquad.
That villain marched to war and galvanized opposing factions into a formidable united front, sealing his doom from day 1. He took over lots of territory but couldn't hold it as determined resistance with more and more advanced weapons eventually outmatched his forces. Halfway through the war, the villain started dying from illness (he wore a special outfit to conceal his grotesque, disfiguring disease progression) and exhibited increasingly erratic and self-destructive behavior, eventually causing his most trusted generals to plot against him or simply desert their posts. Sound familiar?
Firstly, sorry I've left you to do all the heavy lifting in this thread Hydra; between work and mental I just haven't been able to work up the energy to post here.
QuoteTurkey's been the understated MVP in frustrating Russian aggression - blocking Russian warships access to the Black Sea and easy access to Syria.
Secondly... it's almost like spending several hundred years provoking someone (the Russians and the Ottomans were kinda, slightly, just a little, not too friendly with each other) makes them more likely to hate you in the future.
Who would have thought?*
*other than literally everyone who wasn't a massive empire at one point.
That's Montreux Convention. The Turkish government has declared that they will act according to the convention with no exceptions. But Turkey's not strong enough to stand against Russia in any way. Too big, too powerful, too close and not to mention two country has been shit wired into each other for a very long time in a fatal, twisted way.
My eldest son is currently at Incirlik AFB. He was set to rotate back to the US but is stuck, for now, because of the war.
Quote from: drunkenshoe on April 24, 2022, 04:01:53 AMBut Turkey's not strong enough to stand against Russia in any way. Too big, too powerful, too close and not to mention two country has been shit wired into each other for a very long time in a fatal, twisted way.
Doesn't matter. Article 5. Russia will think twice.
A LOOOONG video, but a good one, I think.
Basically, no matter what happens in Ukraine tomorrow, the West has already done significant harm to the Russian economy and taken away a very sizable chunk of Russia's warchest. Russia won't collapse tomorrow, and may lean on China to survive the worst of it. But the main take-away is that the West can absolutely win the economic long game with Russia and destroy its war-making ability for years if not decades.
Sanctions hit Russian economy (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-economy-dd7bcb1c09b4020a3f75048c4045fa90)
Quote"The government wants to paint a picture that things are not as bad as they actually are," said Michael Alexeev, an economics professor at Indiana University who has studied Russia's economy in its transition after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
A closer look, however, shows that the sanctions are taking a bite out of Russia's economy:
— The country is enduring its worst bout of inflation in two decades. Rosstat, the state's economic statistics agency, said inflation last month hit 17.3%, the highest level since 2002. By comparison, the International Monetary Fund expects consumer prices in developing countries to rise 8.7% this year, up from 5.9% last year.
A tank manufacturer had to shut down, the main russian shipyards had to shut down, an industrial plant that manufactures SAMs shut down, etc. Job losses in the hundreds of thousands in Moscow alone. Brain drain. Partial default. The real possibility of stagflation. Etc.
Putin is artificially inflating the ruble by forcing Russian businesses to buy the ruble (losing significant amounts of money in the process). And the stock market only looks okay because it's mostly not open.
This seemingly good financial health is an illusion. The real situation is Russians fighting over bags of sugar at the grocery store like piranhas.
Caught 'em napping: Russian soldier found sleeping (https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/uaeed7/sleeping_russian_soldier_found_by_ukrainians/)
Bring him inside, give him a nice cot to sleep on, and relieve him of his gun. He won't be needing it anymore.
Russia benefits from this big myth of boldness, grit, and fearsome determination. Take a look. Do you see any of that in reality?
*edit - may be a russian soldier filmed by other russians
Macron wins election, Putin loses (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/macron-le-pen-french-election-results-04-24-22-intl/index.html)
Meet the heroes: Green
This guy stole an invader truck full of ammo, sneaked it past a Russian checkpoint (lol), and delivered it safely to Ukrainian forces.
Russian ambassador says to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61185469?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6266653777811a20d37c9a97%26Sending%20weapons%20to%20Ukraine%20unacceptable%2C%20Russia%20reportedly%20tells%20US%262022-04-25T11%3A22%3A49.306Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:700260bb-a5a7-454e-a27b-6c1d258c912d&pinned_post_asset_id=6266653777811a20d37c9a97&pinned_post_type=share)
(https://i.imgur.com/mp5jJUxl.jpg)
How about you stop sending arms there first.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 25, 2022, 08:31:54 AMMeet the heroes: Green
This guy stole an invader truck full of ammo, sneaked it past a Russian checkpoint (lol), and delivered it safely to Ukrainian forces.
Good on you, Mr. Green.
So how about the cruise missiles? How many does Russia have that function. 10,000? 1200? 56?
I don't know, but is Vlad the Mad just going to keep pounding Ukrainian cities into dust while his three day 'special operation' continues to fail spectacularly. I guess Vlad will decide how much carnage to unleash to cover for his miscalculations.
Quote from: ferdmonger on April 25, 2022, 10:41:38 PMSo how about the cruise missiles? How many does Russia have that function. 10,000? 1200? 56?
I don't know, but Russia's precision-guided stockpile is down to about 30% of the pre-war stockpile, though they can still produce more, albeit slowly. Every day, the Ukrainians are shooting down quite a few of them, and they seem to be getting better at it. Plus, many of the Russian missile strikes either go off course or don't detonate (unless they were planning on hitting that livestock pen), which is a bit of a problem.
So, Russian "intelligence" tried to fabricate and then foil an alleged neo-nazi plot in progress in their midst (besides the Z thing) and they arrested a "suspect".
Among his possessions are a book signed "signature unclear" (someone was apparently instructed to pen an illegible signature on the book, but instead literally wrote the words "signature unclear" in the book, fully legible)
Also, 3 copies of the Sims 3 computer game (apparently, the original instructions were "3 Sim cards" but something must have gotten lost in translation)
No wonder Russia lost the information war.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 12:07:04 AMSo, Russian "intelligence" tried to fabricate and then foil an alleged neo-nazi plot in progress in their midst (besides the Z thing) and they arrested a "suspect".
Among his possessions are a book signed "signature unclear" (someone was apparently instructed to pen an illegible signature on the book, but instead literally wrote the words "signature unclear" in the book, fully legible)
Also, 3 copies of the Sims 3 computer game (apparently, the original instructions were "3 Sim cards" but something must have gotten lost in translation)
No wonder Russia lost the information war.
Two months ago, and I would have said you've been duped... there is no way a countries government is THAT stupid (besides maybe North Korea).
Now, I don't know if this is a joke and I doubt it is.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on April 24, 2022, 08:55:46 AMMy eldest son is currently at Incirlik AFB. He was set to rotate back to the US but is stuck, for now, because of the war.
Sorry to hear that. Adana is a big, mad city. People there are like Texans. Hot headed, cocky. It's very hot, but it has good hot, spicy food like the people and the weather, lol. If he likes it, he has the chance to eat the best kebap of every kind in the world there. (Around all that region.) It's diverse and there are very 'unique' communities in the region. How long has he been there? Does he like it?
Quote from: Shiranu on April 26, 2022, 12:22:14 AMTwo months ago, and I would have said you've been duped... there is no way a countries government is THAT stupid (besides maybe North Korea).
Now, I don't know if this is a joke and I doubt it is.
It's very much a real thing (https://www.vice.com/en/article/88gpmg/russia-sims-3)
Quote from: drunkenshoe on April 26, 2022, 01:17:04 AMSorry to hear that. Adana is a big, mad city. People there are like Texans. Hot headed, cocky. It's very hot, but it has good hot, spicy food like the people and the weather, lol. If he likes it, he has the chance to eat the best kebap of every kind in the world there. (Around all that region.) It's diverse and there are very 'unique' communities in the region. How long has he been there? Does he like it?
Thanks! He was there about 3 months before the war started, and was a week away from going back to the states. I'm pretty sure that the people are restricted to the base, atm. He may not be able to return until the war is over. I'll bet he loves the food. He likes spicy, for sure.
(https://i.imgur.com/xvTSDPll.jpg)
Man, I love their sense of humor!
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 12:32:37 PM
The string has to be under tension for his comms system to work...
Explosions, fire at two oil depots in Russia (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/04/25/explosions-at-fuel-depots-in-russias-bryansk-what-we-know-so-far/)
Approx 100km from the border with Ukraine, so who knows how they started. Though I do note that Putin accused the UK of "provoking" Ukraine to strike targets in Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/russia-warns-britain-provoking-ukraine-2022-04-26/). One would think that Russia invading Ukraine was the main thing that provoked them to allegedly strike Russia. Maybe don't take a swing if you don't wanna get hit. 🤷
There's yet another mysterious fire in Russia, this one at the Ussuriysk airbase (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_H4LXnqcd4) to the far east in Russia so there's zero chance Ukraine is involved. Strange.
"Hey, I'm allowed to punch down, you aren't supposed to fight back!" :rolleyes: The danger, of course, is that the people of Russia will rally behind Putin if Ukraine attacks on their soil. It's a losing game.
Russian gas imports to Poland halted (https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-gas-idAFW8N2V500Z)
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 07:37:39 PMRussian gas imports to Poland halted (https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-gas-idAFW8N2V500Z)
Welp, given how much Poland has given up... I think they are hopefully prepared for this in the short term and aren't caught off guard. Now it's up to other, wealthier countries of NATO to start paying up...
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 26, 2022, 08:43:38 AMIt's very much a real thing (https://www.vice.com/en/article/88gpmg/russia-sims-3)
Good grief. You can actually see fold in the Nazi t-shirt from the freshly unwrapped package. (Note to Russian agents - at least make the shirt look worn next time.)
Quote from: Shiranu on April 26, 2022, 08:52:14 PMWelp, given how much Poland has given up... I think they are hopefully prepared for this in the short term and aren't caught off guard. Now it's up to other, wealthier countries of NATO to start paying up...
They were one of the first european countries to propose scrapping Russian fossil fuels (https://www.politico.eu/article/follow-my-lead-on-scrapping-russian-energy-poland-tells-the-eu/) so I assume they know what they're doing, and they were going to phase out Russian fossil fuels entirely by the end of the year regardless. This just speeds up the timetable.
This abrupt shift is hard, but imho Russia is making a big mistake in forcing the issue by cutting countries off and expecting them to come crawling back with briefcases full of rubles. Not gonna happen. This move just deprives Moscow of funds it desperately needs and otherwise would have gotten for at least a few more months. (STUPID!)
Getting abruptly cut off hurts Western countries, but not as bad as Russia abruptly not being able to sell to anyone but India and filling existing contracts with China. Really boneheaded, emotionally-driven stuff that is going to hurt them long-term because now all Western countries anticipate to get cut off at any time at Putin's whim and will seek out other arrangements.
And once the West stops trading with Russia, Russia has ZERO leverage over them. And it goes without saying that when they stop trading with Russia, it will be a looong time before that trade resumes.
Some dumb comments by a US official:
U.S. Weapons Stockpile Risks Running Low (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-26/ukraine-latest-russia-signals-interest-in-talks-with-the-u-s) (le gasp!)
QuoteU.S. weapons stockpiles could run out in several months if the Biden administration continues to send war-fighting supplies to Ukraine, defense experts told Congress. "It's a huge threat to our security," Ellen Lord, former under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said at an Armed Services Committee hearing.
Lord said the U.S. has sent almost a quarter of its stockpile of Stinger missiles to Ukraine. David Berteau, president of the Professional Services Council, said that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. is readying almost one-third of available weapons stockpiles with no current contracts to replenish them.
Point #1 - this conflict is only 2 months old and it has already gotten to the point where Russia is doing its last big push with massed tanks. They're on plan B and there is no plan C.
This is the most pivotal phase of the war. There is no better time to send them that doesn't involve time travel. You know a bad time to send them? Months from now! If you send them now, you won't have to send any months from now. So don't worry about months from now.
Point #2 - How in the kentucky-fried hell does dropping to two-thirds of a stockpile of Stingers endanger US security in any way, shape, or form? Who's going to invade, Canada?
And more generally, stockpiles are made to be used in a crisis. This is the mother of all crises. Unless there's a hell of a compelling argument why those rockets should be sitting in a warehouse instead of in the hands of people who are going to use them to defend women and children (and also curb Russian expansion in eastern europe), then get them to Poland asap! 500 a day, if you can. Whatever you've got, if you can't.
QuotePoint #2 - How in the kentucky-fried hell does dropping to two-thirds of a stockpile of Stingers endanger US security in any way, shape, or form? Who's going to invade, Canada?
China, in some form, would be most likely to wage war on us; though I would wager it would almost certainly be a war of soft power rather than brute force. We are so beholden to Chinese production that if they were to sanction us... it would be like we were Russia under EU sanctions.
From there, just let society collapse in America and then come in and clean up, either through "peacekeeping" operations & "reeducation", corrupt officials turning American citizens into slaves for China, or warlords spawned through partisan ideologies and climate change limiting resources.
Realistically that fight will be within the next decade or two as climate change is ramping up significantly and causing resource scarcity (war in the world's breadbasket doesn't help either) - we can either prepare for it and try to avoid it, or stumble into it like we did with Russia.
We can still show strength and avoid falling to our own arrogance, but the way society is progressing I'm not going to hold my breath; we are taught from birth to be arrogant and entitled, or at the very least idolize people with that "fuck over anyone to get what you want"-business mindset or, even worse, "influencers".
It's not judgement, it just is what it is.
Quote from: Shiranu on April 27, 2022, 02:43:45 AMChina, in some form, would be most likely to wage war on us;
They could, but it'd destroy both countries' economies, not to mention making Fallout happen irl.
Besides, Chinese ambitions at the moment lie with Hong Kong, Taiwan, and other parts of southeast Asia. Unlike Russia, they've never had global imperial ambitions.
If anything, China is viewing Russia as a prime example of what NOT to do.
Putin's forces struggling in Ukraine because "they don't like to fight in the rain" (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/vladimir-putin-troops-russia-suffering-losses-in-ukraine-donbas-western-officials-b996578.html)
Then go home!
Russian ammo depot burns in Belograd region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/27/7342335/) (yes, again)
QuoteThe governor of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Gladkov reported that, according to preliminary data, an ammunition depot is burning near the village of Stara Nelidovka.
When asked about the mysterious explosions in 3 Russian regions (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/27/7342386/), the Advisor to President Zellensky had this to say:
QuoteIf you [Russians] decided to attack another country, to indiscriminately kill people there, to drive tanks over the bodies of civilians – and if you are using depots in your regions to supply the weapons of this mass murder, then sooner or later you will have to repay your debts. You won't be able to sit it out given the intensity and the scale of Russian military invasion in Ukraine.
And so the disarmament of murderers' depots in the Belgorod and Voronezh Regions is an entirely natural process. Karma is a b***h."
Suffice it to say that no tears were shed and Ukrainian's pre-war stockpile of Fs has been completely depleted.
US fed Ukraine intel that helped Ukraine shoot down a russian plane carrying hundreds of invaders (hhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-fed-ukraine-intel-on-russian-plans-that-helped-it-move-artillery-from-strikes-and-shoot-down-a-russian-plane-report-says/ar-AAWDHkH)
QuoteThe US passed intelligence on planned Russian missile strikes to Ukraine so it could move military assets out of the way, often with moments to spare, NBC News reported, citing US officials.
"The Russian military has literally been cratering empty fields where air defenses were once set up," a US official told NBC News. "It has had an enormous impact on the Russian military's ability on the ground."
QuoteIn another case, US intelligence helped Ukraine shoot down a Russian transport plane containing hundreds of troops that was headed to help seize Hostomel Airport near Kyiv, NBC News reported.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdFGvhIXgAMa4TI.jpg)
This is pretty special:
"If you [Russians] decided to attack another country, to indiscriminately kill people there, to drive tanks over the bodies of civilians – and if you are using depots in your regions to supply the weapons of this mass murder, then sooner or later you will have to repay your debts. You won't be able to sit it out given the intensity and the scale of Russian military invasion in Ukraine. And so the disarmament of murderers' depots in the Belgorod and Voronezh Regions is an entirely natural process. Karma is a b***h."
Poor Russia is getting a boo-boo lip now that Ukraine is striking back. Those dirty bastards are actually hitting oil depots and weapon storage facilities. And remember, Lavrov warned us if this continues, he's going to hold his breath until he turns blue and then nuke the world, because Ukraine is being naughty.
In a year, their economy will be in shambles, their military depleted, and their citizens angry. Nice way to run a railroad Vlad.
I really, really, really hope that they don't actually use nukes. Russia has 14 time zones, and that is their main reason that they can survive a nuclear holocaust- the vast land area.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on April 27, 2022, 09:35:46 PMI really, really, really hope that they don't actually use nukes. Russia has 14 time zones, and that is their main reason that they can survive a nuclear holocaust- the vast land area.
If Putin launches nuclear bombs, it'll be the last mistake he ever makes. Assuming his military could even get the bombs off the ground. Given their recent performance, they might just accidentally nuke their own country.
Any idiot leaders who start talking about committing nuclear war or survivability, needs to be executed by their subjects immediately. BTW, Russian people should know they have little survivability advantage (if any) as they are clustered in urban areas at nearly the same rate as in the US and they have fewer cities. Hundreds of millions of people will die and the political entities of Russia and the US will effectively cease to exist and vast regions such as New England and Moscow will be totally uninhabitable for generations.
Vlad could have started this war by sending a low yield nuke onto Kiev. He didn't do it because it was unacceptable. It still is - only more so.
It is a sign of massive weakness that makes these statements absurd.
Vlad. Find a bunker. Save the world time.
Ukraine to be equipped with NATO weapons (https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519405553390342146?s=20&t=2G3Jnwt4OFY2LyAb8AgDXg)
Russia has a bloody lip right now, but it's going to get its teeth kicked in if this continues.
Well, shit. If it boils down to a nuclear exchange, I'll shoot myself first to avoid radiation sickness. I'm not afraid of death, but I've had enough pain in my life, and radiation sickness is painful. This is the closest I've been to that feeling since Kennedy and Khrushchev faced off over missiles in Cuba. I was 10 YO at that time, and distinctly recall "drop" drills.
I think I'll pull through.
Russia has threatened a lot of stuff over the past two months, including attacking most of its neighbors, attacking arms shipments, even attacking any country that donates arms. They even threatened the UK in particular with...something a few days ago. Last I checked, the UK is still standing.
In fact, they haven't made good on virtually any threat, except for very small, petty threats like cutting Poland off from gas.
So why sorry about words alone?
Russian losses accelerate: 400 KIA in one day (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/28/7342601/)
They also lost 31 tanks, 47 armored vehicles, and 10 artillery in one day.
Unsustainable. Their front will collapse and then they will either rout or be overrun.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 28, 2022, 05:58:03 AMI think I'll pull through.
Russia has threatened a lot of stuff over the past two months, including attacking most of its neighbors, attacking arms shipments, even attacking any country that donates arms. They even threatened the UK in particular with...something a few days ago. Last I checked, the UK is still standing.
In fact, they haven't made good on virtually any threat, except for very small, petty threats like cutting Poland off from gas.
So why sorry about words alone?
Just because Putler may feel like a man with nothing left to lose if Russia gets little or nothing for all the cost. Would he be done? Could he continue on after that?
John F. Kennedy said: 'Nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war.'
Use of tactical nukes (or even hardcore use of chemical weapons) by Russia in Ukraine would be particularly tough for NATO to deal with. What is the correct response? During a recent war game, the US responded by nuking Belarus.
Quote from: Cassia on April 28, 2022, 11:18:46 AMJust because Putler may feel like a man with nothing left to lose if Russia gets little or nothing for all the cost. Would he be done? Could he continue on after that?
Perhaps Putin is a suicidal man, perhaps not (personally, I doubt he would kill the only thing he cherishes).
But Putin derives his power from oligarchs who most definitely are not suicidal. If faced with the utter ruin of Russia or the removal of Putin, they will make the obvious choice.
Problem for the oligarchs is that to try and fail means death as well.
And with how closely the kgb watches them, trying to arrange something must feel like a suïcide mission.
Honestly, I wouldn´t be surprised if it turned out putin had those two oligarchs recently killed, along with their family, even without them trying to conspire against him. If only to make it look like they did so that other oligarchs would not even think about turning on him. That he fabricated his own insurrectionists to prevent a real insurrection.
Yesterday, Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 enemy air targets: (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3470267-ukrainian-military-down-15-enemy-air-targets.html) 5 cruise missiles, 9 drones, 1 aircraft.
Countering PuZin propaganda: Russia's hand was forced by NATO expansion
Belarus, Russia want to form "union state" (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-belarus-union-state-former-soviet-nations-1701935)
Some sort of Union of ex-Soviet Socialist Republics.
Hmmm...now where have I heard of this before?
Slovakia said it would donate all its Mig-29s to Ukraine (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1519994641319354368) if its allies will protect its skies until it gets new F-16s in 2024.
Well, Poland just offered to patrol Slovakia's airspace in the meantime, enabling Slovakia to go through with the Mig donation!
I do hope China is paying attention. It seems NATO did let Putin slide for too long and leaders thought he was a reasonable man. Maybe he was, maybe his health is failing now, and he wants his big-time legacy. Well, that's not really working out for him, is it?
US House overwhelmingly approves Lend-Lease for Ukraine (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/us/politics/ukraine-lend-lease-arms.html)
They could've pushed it through before the two-week recess, but c'est la vie
Quote from: Cassia on April 29, 2022, 10:08:28 AMI do hope China is paying attention.
I do, too. The moral of the story is that sometimes the West will let things slide and sometimes they'll come down on you like a ton of bricks.
And if you don't pull a fait accompli in the first week, they will rally around the defending country and do everything they can to disrupt the aggressor country. We're talking unprecedented levels of cooperation. If you rely on imports in any way, kiss those goodbye.
And you better bring your A-game to the information war, because every dirty deed and secret on the aggressor side is going to get out, while the defenders get extremely sympathetic coverage. The defending leader is going to be a world hero and other leaders are going to hang by his/her every word.
Meanwhile, the world is going to watch your troops get droned on TikTok and they're going to cheer.
If you think you're ready for that, you're not.
Vlad's in a corner
Oh what will he do
I really don't know
and neither do you
He could be insane
Or medically sick
Or just plain suffrin'
From little man's dick
So, a Russian commander had just finished a battle and was doing a walk-and-talk on camera and was abruptly killed by shelling.
The lack of training is really showing.
Not-so-friendly-fire: Two groups of Russian troops fire on each other (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520097132463759362), dead and wounded in both groups
Meet the heroes: Javelin/NLAW operator destroyed 6 armored vehicles in one day (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3471295-javelin-nlaw-operator-destroys-six-russian-armored-vehicles-in-one-day.html)
Quote"It would be very difficult for us to contain the enemy without Western anti-tank weapons. After all, Russians have a lot of equipment and they spared neither hardware, nor personnel at the beginning of the war. And now the situation is completely different. The enemy knows we have Javelins and NLAWs, they fear them like plague, and this fear paralyzes them and undermines their morale," the soldier added.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRkhk-XXIAEv9T5?format=jpg&name=large)
Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian strike on an invader command post near Izium. (https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1520463695813484545) Several dead officers, potentially another dead general.
One small step down for man: Russia to quit ISS over sanctions (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-30/russia-will-quit-international-space-station-over-sanctions)
After threatening to colony drop the ISS last month, no less. Good riddance.
Russia might've been first in space, but it has lagged far behind and now looks like it can't keep its gaze off its neighbors long enough to turn it to the stars.
Its economy is in too poor a shape to pursue both space and military conquest, so its dictator has made his choice.
Could be a massive moment for Elon to step up and really cement his place in power if he invested in maintaining the I.S.S..
I don't know if that is a good thing given the precedent it sets, but it is what it is going to be... so it at least would be him instead of someone like Bezos or Zuckerberg.
Russian fascists prepare for Putin parade (https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1520478877159723008?s=21&t=Us71Vy0MHi0jB5xqCrQLLw)
Those armbands seem awfully familiar...
Ukraine's Security Services foil Russian plot to shoot down passenger plane and blame it on Ukraine (https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/security-service-of-ukraine-neutralized-russia-srg-which-was-going-to-shoot-down-a-passenger-plane-and-blame-ukraine)
If that seems far fetched, remember when a passenger plane went down over Donbass and the Russians blamed the Ukrainians even though that area was controlled by the "rebels"? And for years, no one really quite knew what happened but then we found out that it was without a doubt the Russians (mild shock) and then nothing much happened after that.
Russia kludging together depleted units, sending them back into battle with low morale (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3471183-many-units-of-russian-troops-suffering-from-weakened-morale-british-intelligence.html)
There's a reason why you reinforce shattered units with fresh troops. Otherwise, you just get shell-shocked troops staring into the campfire and telling stories about how half their unit was wiped out with equally shell-shocked troops with similar stories. And if morale dips down below a certain point, crazy things start happening...
Quote"Shortcomings in Russian tactical co-ordination remain. A lack of unit-level skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully leverage its combat mass, despite localized improvements," the ministry said.
In southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces destroy an electronic warfare system (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3471882-army-destroys-russian-ew-system-two-drones-over-40-invaders-in-southern-ukraine.html), 3 AA guns, an AA system, 42 invaders, and 2 drones.
On the other front, Russia is having more mysterious fires. (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61252785?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=626edb5a6b7942142fe96397%26Fire%20at%20a%20Russian%20defence%20ministry%20site%20-%20Belgorod%20governor%262022-05-01T19%3A38%3A43.753Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:92880bce-aed3-4ec9-b84c-2d0a322e94ed&pinned_post_asset_id=626edb5a6b7942142fe96397&pinned_post_type=share) A fire broke out at a defense ministry site in Belgorod (voted Russia's most flammable region in 2022), and a rail bridge collapsed near Kursk. They claim sabotage on the second one.
Truly desperate: these geniuses are considering a new "zerg rush (https://mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1520909866717564933?t=WbOPTtA6gODtavq2iCAyGQ&s=19)" strategy (i.e. human wave attack (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_wave_attack))
Since the invention of the machine gun, human wave attacks have been a catastrophically poor choice.
In central Russia, a mysterious fire broke out at a munitions factory (https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1521113814158168069), killing 2 workers
(https://i.redd.it/59evbbrlo2x81.jpg)
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 02, 2022, 09:26:17 PM(https://i.redd.it/59evbbrlo2x81.jpg)
I really hope they don't ever discover just how backwards they look to us; not the first time Russia has attacked West and been about 100 years behind in technology either and I don't know what someone made aware that they exist at that level of cringe is capable of.
In Russia, mysterious fire engulfs pro-Kremlin publishing house (https://polanddaily24.com/4690-large-warehouse-of-the-pro-kremlin-prosveshcheniye-publishing-house-is-on-fire-video) (the company that would've scrubbed all references to Ukraine from textbooks)
Handy map of most of the mysterious fires so far:
(https://i.redd.it/2m76hvqdy8x81.png)
Ukrainian forces destroy 122 invaders (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/3/7343622/), two patrol boats in the Black Sea (with Bayaraktar drones), and a recon drone approaching Odesa from the sea.
It appears that the Russian offensive in the south has petered out as they focus on regrouping what's left and fortifying their positions. A losing strategy.
In the meantime, increasingly advanced western hardware is rolling into Ukraine (even moreso with the looming US Lend-Lease) and Ukrainian forces are being trained to use it. In time, Ukrainian forces will be able to flatten whatever paltry fortifications the Russians have made and retake territory easily.
With mounting sanctions, dwindling supplies, and unsustainable attrition, time is not on Russia's side. Time is never on an invader's side.
If they were smart, they'd call it quits now and spare themselves a horrendous and embarrassing military defeat later.
Russian-Israeli relations deteriorate even further (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-with-nasty-outing-and-hitler-comments-russia-and-israel-are-on-a-collision-course-1.10777297)
(https://i.redd.it/zlfzd4hdd9x81.png)
I can't imagine why...
Russia also defended its "nazi" accusations by saying that it's possible for a Jewish political leader to be nazi-like (which might've been a good point if they stopped there) because Hitler was Jewish and also a nazi (big yikes)
Russia has also warmed up to Iran quite a bit, bombed a holocaust memorial in Ukraine, and started goose-stepping with uniforms practically identical to Nazi uniforms (literally the only thing missing is the swastika)
Needless to say, Israel is not happy with this deliberate embrace of many Nazi norms under the ludicrous guise of fighting nazism.
I have thoroughly enjoyed these updates and briefings from Hydra. Personally, I would not have started such a venture, because I was sure Russia was unstoppable. I don't know if Hydra was lucky or if he was exceptionally well equipped from the start with knowledge about Russia's lack of offensive capabilities. I am also surprised at Biden's aggressive support of the Ukraine. While, I thought such a stance was an absolute necessity, and that anyone with a brain in the US would agree, I didn't see this coming from our leadership.
Russia must be stopped. I would like to see their entire military infrastructure shredded into scrap metal, and all further Russian nonsense be stopped permanently. Russia should be defeated and divided up between all European nations, or simply annexed by Poland and Politburo replaced by a puppet government who would then reeducate the Russian people; In camps, if necessary.
OK, I got carried away, but I can dream. I am coming to love the Ukrainian people. I think they should be entitled to help themselves to a large slice of Russia, the slice that includes Moscow.
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 03, 2022, 10:01:35 AMI can't imagine why...
Russia also defended its "nazi" accusations by saying that it's possible for a Jewish political leader to be nazi-like (which might've been a good point if they stopped there) because Hitler was Jewish and also a nazi (big yikes)
Russia has also warmed up to Iran quite a bit, bombed a holocaust memorial in Ukraine, and started goose-stepping with uniforms practically identical to Nazi uniforms (literally the only thing missing is the swastika)
Needless to say, Israel is not happy with this deliberate embrace of many Nazi norms under the ludicrous guise of fighting nazism.
It was the recent memory of the Soviet caused "Holodomor" famine (1932-33) that took the lives of 3-5 million Ukrainians that would result in many Ukrainians deciding that Germans were the lesser evil. Some did become Nazis but most just suffered terribly as they involuntarily hosted huge battles in their country. Being a proxy caught between the East and West is their entire history. Hell, I bet there are more Nazi types in the US than in Ukraine these days.
Quote from: SGOS on May 03, 2022, 10:30:16 AMI have thoroughly enjoyed these updates and briefings from Hydra.
Thanks!
I've been trying to make a sort of public record of the day-to-day events so I have a solid timeline to look back on this conflict.
But mostly, it has been to share good news from Ukraine during the darkest days early on in the conflict.
QuotePersonally, I would not have started such a venture, because I was sure Russia was unstoppable. I don't know if Hydra was lucky or if he was exceptionally well equipped from the start with knowledge about Russia's lack of offensive capabilities.
I had no idea. I'm not a military analyst in the slightest. But I have a broad familiarity with both the recent history and principal actors.
A week or two in, I realized that captured Russian troops were somewhat...lacking...in many ways. Combined with reports of significant losses of troops, tanks, officers, etc, it doesn't take a genius to figure out which way the wind is blowing.
QuoteRussia must be stopped. I would like to see their entire military infrastructure shredded into scrap metal, and all further Russian nonsense be stopped permanently.
Same. Ideally, the white-blue faction takes power and puts an end to the war and any further expansionist plans.
At the rate this is going, I don't think the US should lift sanctions in any deal that doesn't involve the complete restoration of Ukraine's territory AND significant reparations. Depending on Russia's possible use of additional WMDs and additional war crimes, I might also tack on some form of demilitarization and/or nuclear disarmament.
Small update on the Israel - Russia situation: Russia today responded to Israel's criticisms of calling Jews Nazis (and essentially blaming the Holocaust on Jews) was to tweet that Israel just didn't know what they were talking about and needs to learn their history better...
https://twitter.com/MID_RF/status/1521388645516980224?s=20&t=7d3yB7Fa53KHyq15J3FiEA
QuoteWe paid attention to the anti-historical statements of the Israeli Foreign Minister @yairlapid
, largely explaining the course of the current Israeli government to support the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv.
☝️ About whether there are actually neo-Nazis in Ukraine: https://vk.cc/cdeLe6
I wonder why Russia is so hesitant to bring up the Neo-Nazis in their own government and society, or their long history of anti-Antisemitism and atrocities against Jewish people, or the rampant Anti-Antisemitism that permeated the oligarchy since the Imperial days that, unlike Germany, was never purged of their upper society... hmmm...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-cosmopolitan_campaign
QuoteBor'ba s kosmopolitizmom was a thinly disguised antisemitic campaign in the Soviet Union which began in late 1948.[1] Jews were characterized as rootless cosmopolitans and were targeted for persecution.
...
As a result of the campaign, many Soviet Jews were fired from their jobs and Jews were unofficially banned from taking certain jobs. For example, in 1947, Jews constituted 18 per cent of Soviet scientific workers, but by 1970 this number declined to 7 per cent, which was still higher than about 3 to 4 per cent of the total Soviet population at that time they comprised.[12]
Anything Jewish became suppressed by the Soviet authorities. For example, the Yiddish verse sung by Mikhoels was cut out from the famous lullaby sung in turns by persons of different ethnicities in the Soviet classic 1936 movie Circus, restored during destalinization.[13]
American historian Walter Laqueur noted: "When, in the 1950s under Stalin, the Jews of the Soviet Union came under severe attack and scores were executed, it was under the banner of anti-Zionism rather than anti-Semitism, which had been given a bad name by Adolf Hitler."[14]
This was some of the "nice" Russian anti-Antisemitism after the death of Hitler.
Yeah, they really screwed the pooch when it comes to Israeli sensibilities. Israel is spoiled for choice in how they could possibly retailiate.
Edit - "inclined to increase aid to Ukraine" (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-inclined-to-increase-ukraine-aid-but-support-to-remain-largely-declarative-1.10776431)
(https://i.redd.it/vz6q0qsi0cx81.jpg)
Attacks on electrical stations in Lviv today - parts of Lviv without power. More strikes on railroad facilities in central Ukraine. Vlad apparently knows the western weapons are getting in. Will he expand his long-range lobbing of missiles into Ukraine to take out infrastructure? I'm surprised he hasn't done more of this already, especially since his ground forces seem to be at best in a quagmire. If he is cognizant of his own folly, he may become even more dangerous. At this point I don't even know if he has the missiles or the abibility to do so.
Quote from: ferdmonger on May 03, 2022, 09:14:21 PMAttacks on electrical stations in Lviv today - parts of Lviv without power. More strikes on railroad facilities in central Ukraine. Vlad apparently knows the western weapons are getting in. Will he expand his long-range lobbing of missiles into Ukraine to take out infrastructure? I'm surprised he hasn't done more of this already, especially since his ground forces seem to be at best in a quagmire. If he is cognizant of his own folly, he may become even more dangerous. At this point I don't even know if he has the missiles or the abibility to do so.
Russia has been stepping up long-range bombardment, possibly to intimidate and possibly to distract from their faltering offensive, to give a misleading impression of success. In some places, like Kharkiv (https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-retakes-villages-near-kharkiv-easing-pressure-on-battered-city-11651669856), they've actually lost ground and run the risk of falling apart just like the northern front.
And a thank you to Hydra as well. Thanks for your coverage.
Ukraine says that it blew up a Russian command post near Kherson (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521542041376899077) and I honestly don't know if this is old news or new news. Dated May 3rd, though.
Edit - it's new news (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3474008-enemy-operations-center-and-three-ammunition-depots-destroyed-in-southern-ukraine.html)
Quotewe destroyed an enemy command operations center, three ammunition depots, one fuel and oils depot and several groups of enemy troops and military equipment. The total losses are yet to be reported
The Ukrainians also struck the temporarily-occupied Snake Island with a Bayaraktar drone (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-04-22/h_b69ecc9b7672d584d0ce6f9f370692b6). I don't know what they hit, but the drone footage showed several secondary explosions. So less search-and-rescue and more broom-and-dustpan. No famous last words this time.
Russia loses extremely modern main battle tank (https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1521893220430622721?cxt=HHwWgsC93cL07J4qAAAA)
These tanks were just put in service in 2016 and they cost several million USD each.
(https://images.viacbs.tech/uri/mgid:arc:imageassetref:shared.southpark.us.en:b1ede551-1aba-419e-9812-06fc24fb6fd7?quality=0.7&width=660&height=371&crop=true)
They would replace it, but oopsie, the only place that builds them (Uralvagonzavod) has been sanctioned to death. Literally irreplaceable.
Yesterday, in eastern Ukraine, defenders repulsed 11 attacks (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/4/7344088/), destroying 5 tanks, 2 APCs, 2 IFVs, 3 artillery, 2 planes, and 2 drones.
Apparently, the Ukraine has been getting intelligence from the US. Last night, the NYT carried this story, in which the Pentagon claims it led the Ukraine to the positions of many of Russia's generals and other top commanders that the Ukrainians snuffed. It also, informed them of troop movements and other targets.
Russia will lose, say Russian soldiers returning from war (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-lose-ukraine-war-south-ossetia-invasion-soldiers-refuse-fight-1703302)
QuoteThey also told Bibilov that artillery fire missed targets by 2 kilometers (one-and-a-quarter miles), but officers in command brushed off complaints of incorrect coordinates, while troops faced constant shelling due to inadequate battlefield intel.
2km variance. No wonder they hit livestock pens and apartment buildings.
And no wonder they've been unable to stop Western arms shipments. They did damage transportation infrastructure, but they were possibly aiming at the shipments. Or maybe they were aiming at the infrastructure and hoped they'd get lucky and bag an arms shipment in the process. Regardless, the shipments haven't been hindered so far.
QuoteOne soldier claimed that 99 percent of the equipment they were given did not work, while another said three out of 10 tanks could not shoot.
QuoteBibilov challenged the soldiers for saying that they believe Moscow will eventually be defeated by Ukraine.
"The Russians have seen a lot of wars, Napoleon reached Moscow and, in order not to surrender Moscow, the Russians burned their own city. Never think that the Russians will lose," Bibilov told the group.
LOL, that's some military-grade copium right there. "We won't lose. Hey, remember that time we were losing and burned down our own city out of desperation?" Quality encouragement right there.
And yes, Russia has lost more than its fair share of wars. War in Afghanistan, the first Chechan war, and the war against Japan off the top of my head. Got absolutely crushed by the Mongols, though just about everyone did. Lost the Cold War, though that technically wasn't a war.
Russia absolutely can lose this war and is well on its way to doing just that.
Quote from: SGOS on May 05, 2022, 08:59:12 AMApparently, the Ukraine has been getting intelligence from the US. Last night, the NYT carried this story, in which the Pentagon claims it led the Ukraine to the positions of many of Russia's generals and other top commanders that the Ukrainians snuffed. It also, informed them of troop movements and other targets.
Yes. In some cases, they spotted Russian encampments/convoys and let the Ukrainians have at 'em. In other cases, they spotted Russian artillery preparing to fire and warned the Ukrainians to scoot, sometimes with mere moments to spare. US intel has been helping the Ukrainians immensely.
Edit - US intel reportedly had a hand in the destruction of the Moskva. The Russians won't soon forget. Good. They should bear in mind every time they lift a rifle or lift an anchor that the world is watching.
Russia to create its own ideologically-correct version of Wikipedia (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1522218303325806592?t=qp8G1QCbUdJDcWvDObbHPQ&s=19)
So basically, Conservapedia but for ruskies.
Why not just use Conservapedia? They already hate all the same people.
'We can make adjustments': Bulgaria to repair Ukrainian military vehicles (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bulgaria-approves-repairs-ukrainian-military-equipment-not-military-aid-2022-05-04/)
QuoteEuropean Union and NATO member state Bulgaria has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, supported sanctions against Moscow, refused to pay for Russian gas with roubles and hosted over 90,000 Ukrainian refugees.
QuoteBulgarian arms exports have increased threefold since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, official data showed. The country does not export arms to Ukraine directly but officials have said that they cannot control what buyers, mainly from EU countries, would like to do further with these exports.
Plausible deniability. Wink wink.
QuoteLOL, that's some military-grade copium right there. "We won't lose. Hey, remember that time we were losing and burned down our own city out of desperation?" Quality encouragement right there.
No, no, no - losing your capital is winning, because it shows you are willing to destroy everything you own just to not REALLY lose... because nothing says winning like losing every last possession and burning your own fields so you're not even worth invading anymore.
It's kinda like in chess, when you lose half your pawns in the first 3 turns and then eat your king so he cant be checkmated.
/s
Kremlin to Moskva dead's families: ship sank on accident, no war death compensation for you (https://www.kyivpost.com/eastern-europe/kremlin-to-family-members-of-moskva-cruiser-crew-ship-sank-by-accident-no-war-compensation.html)
As predicted, cheapskate-grifters sitting on swimming pools worth of roubles whose promises mean nothing because they will never honor their word.
Sadly not a new thing (https://meduza.io/en/feature/2017/09/29/dead-but-not-killed)
Speaking of Russian warships, I was just reading about the missile frigate Admiral Makarov, described by Forbes as "the juiciest target in the Black Sea" (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/06/the-russian-frigate-admiral-makarov-might-be-the-juiciest-target-in-the-black-sea/?sh=3f7857874d56)
Well, buckle up for rough seas, because it's reportedly on fire after getting hit by a missile! (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ship-admiral-makarov-ukraine-war-b2073007.html)
Man, "accidental" fires are all the rage these days.
The Kremlin dismissed claims that it will issue a general mobilization on May 9th. Yet suspiciously, numerous governmental organizations have posted lots of help wanted ads for "wartime mobilisation specialists". (https://mobile.twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1522480922762874881)
I'm not worried, because if you thought the initial invading troops were lacking, just wait till you see the D-listers - greener than the Hulk, and less motivated than Trump trying to read the Bible. And in the same (or worse) vehicles that already got blown up so bad that the autoloaders are part of the space program.
And if you thought the public resented the Kremlin before, just wait until Moscow citizens get fed to the meat grinder. Putin will be on track for a quick retirement as war casualties mount.
Update: the cruiser is reportedly on fire but still afloat and attempting to abandon ship.
Russia denies it was attacked (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-peskov-admiral-makarov-black-sea-ship-1704189) because of course they deny it.
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 06, 2022, 01:27:40 PMUpdate: the cruiser is reportedly on fire but still afloat and attempting to abandon ship.
Russia denies it was attacked (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-peskov-admiral-makarov-black-sea-ship-1704189) because of course they deny it.
Does Ukraine even have a navy? They are sure smacking the Russian navy.
Quote from: Cassia on May 06, 2022, 03:08:48 PMDoes Ukraine even have a navy? They are sure smacking the Russian navy.
Not really; they had a fleet of 27 ships, being composed of a 93' frigate, the Hetman Sahaidachny, at least one recon vessel, and a few patrol boats from what I am finding; the Sahaidachny was scuttled in port rather than let the Russians capture it and at least 12 patrol boats being captured pretty early on.
Didn't help that in 2014, several of the top admirals and captains defected to Russia... so it seems like Ukraine is better off at this point without ships as the Navy are fighting as infantry instead; if they had known what a paper tiger Russia was, perhaps they could have prepared better... but that caught the entire world off guard.
Quote from: Cassia on May 06, 2022, 03:08:48 PMDoes Ukraine even have a navy? They are sure smacking the Russian navy.
Thank the Neptunes. Ukrainian designed. (Perhaps with a little help from sources unknown.)
May 9th is going to be a busy day.
Putin is going to kick off Victory Day festivities and perhaps a major escalation of the war with Ukraine (possible mobilisation)
Biden will sign Lend-Lease that day.
Zelenskyy has invited German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Kyiv that day. Ukraine is rumored to launch a missile strike on the Crimes bridge on the same day. (I hope Scholz brings his sunglasses)
To paraphrase men who didn't have their balls surgically removed, unlike some of their "kin" to the West...
"German nation, go fuck yourself."
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/berlin-bans-ukrainian-flag-symbols-on-may-8-9/
QuoteUkrainian activists planned to hold a peaceful rally in Berlin and commemorate the victims of World War II, which killed millions of Ukrainians. But Berlin authorities forbade them to bring Ukrainian symbols, putting them on the same list as Russian imperialist symbols, including Z signs in support of Russian aggression and Saint George ribbons. Germany has been heavily criticized for its reluctance to help Ukraine since Russia started its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24.
Like many nations, several German officials have had financial ties to Russian oligarchs, which explains some of the odd decisions.
Germany was well on its way to extensively relying on Russia to power its economy, so reversing course and shutting down Nordstream 2 couldn't have been easy.
It would have been nice for them to have realized the error earlier and been more proactive about military production/aid, but I guess late is better than never.
(https://i.redd.it/5hjog260jnx81.jpg)
They look like they're ready to fight anarchists then head to the local discotheque to listen to that new YMCA song.
I predict that they'll wisely stay on their own land.
Ukraine just signed a defense agreement with Poland (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1522712798815391744)
Neither side will reveal specifics, but it deals with providing Ukraine with "special equipment".
Poland has several times been rather secretive about its arms shipments to Ukraine to keep that info from the enemy, and each time they've surpassed expectation.
Catching some Zs: The Ukrainian countryside sure is lovely this time of year. (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522632237858107393?t=jlPaCJMTi70S-FZHW4_WAA&s=09) It'll look even nicer when all the invaders are driven out.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR8UOR3XoAwMzlS?format=jpg&name=medium)
The Ukrainians have better intel, too. They'll strike first and last.
(https://i.redd.it/wpryyxxzo3y81.jpg)
The 64th separated motorized brigade, one of the units involved in the Bucha crimes against humanity, has reportedly been completely wiped out (https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1523021564765110272?s=20&t=Y3nT0b-V5ZQC4RpIQFOAvA) in the fighting near Izium.
So apparently, Ukrainian forces not only wiped out the invaders on Snake Island, they also destroyed a rescue helicopter full of special forces just as it landed. And when I say destroyed, I mean blown skyhigh. Overkill.
Meanwhile, on the eastern front on May 7th, Ukrainian forces repulsed 9 attacks (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/8/7344774/), destroying 19 tanks, 20 armored vehicles, 4 special armored vehicles (??), 1 unit of special engineering equipment (???), 6 motor vehicles (aka copewagons), 1 helicopter (different from the Snake Island one), and 6 drones.
Quite a haul! And that's just one front.
Chechen forces are lauded in Russia as being some of the most elite, fiercest fighters.
So let's watch them in action:
That poor shrub is now 100% denazified. ☠️
Good form, too. It's like a combination of an arthritic centenarian walking around after knee surgery and an obese American on a mobility scooter trying to reach the last box of Little Debbie snacks at the local Walmart.
On May 8th, Ukrainian forces destroyed 15 Russian tanks (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3478425-ukrainian-military-destroy-up-to-190-enemy-troops-and-15-tanks-in-eastern-ukraine.html), 12 infantry fighting vehicles, 12 armored personnel carriers, 1 armored fighting vehicle, 1 MT-LB vehicle, mortar squad, 6 heavy artillery tractors, 1 fuel tank, and 2 drones.
190 Russian invaders kia
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 08, 2022, 10:29:39 AMChechen forces are lauded in Russia as being some of the most elite, fiercest fighters.
So let's watch them in action:
That poor shrub is now 100% denazified. ☠️
Good form, too. It's like a combination of an arthritic centenarian walking around after knee surgery and an obese American on a mobility scooter trying to reach the last box of Little Debbie snacks at the local Walmart.
Love how he stuck the muzzle of his gun into the ground several times following the panicked shooting. Hope (or not) he checks the barrel before firing again.
Oh, and I don't think wasting ammunition like that is highly recommended.
Quote from: ferdmonger on May 08, 2022, 10:21:49 PMOh, and I don't think wasting ammunition like that is highly recommended.
It was given to a Kadyrovite, it was already wasted. And my favorite part of the video was the very casual, stumbling walk back to the cameraman. Badasses apparently don't go prone or take cover in active combat situations.
Those numbskulls shoot up obviously empty, abandoned buildings and put it on TikTok like they're Seal Team Six.
Sometimes, there's actual fighting and one of them dropped their gun during combat somehow (+200 pushups for the whole platoon) and then some dummy jog-walks to retrieve it and takes a sniper shot to the gut, and they react by trying to get him to just walk it off. Smh.
Their latest has them sitting down in front of a low wall and one guy's leg is a bloody mess in a tourniquet and he's just chillin' like it ain't no thing. They act as if reality runs on action movie logic and tourniquets magically stabilize "flesh wounds".
I barely know the difference between a magazine and a clip and I feel like I know more about war than these guys.
In the southern front, Russian forces tried to attack a Ukrainian recon unit, but were destroyed (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/9/7344964/). The Russians lost 51 troops, 1 tank, 2 mlrs, an anti-aircraft missile system, a helicopter, and 2 drones.
Ukrainian forces issue a thank-you note to a Russian unit which (presumably by mistake) used flamethrower weapons on friendly forces. (https://mobile.twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1523492036145336320?s=21&t=1UX-nSpZHGh5YOAocMi9JQ)
The Ukrainians said that it was in keeping with the Russian tradition of cooking kebabs in May.
Russian TV hacked (https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1523543444127248385?s=20&t=9egdnlaJ0Z6U9apF2YiCxg), displays message: "Your hands are covered in the blood of thousands of Ukrainian children"
US has observed some Russian officers refusing to follow orders (https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1523687526677975040), necessitating Russian generals to come closer to the front, where they are more vulnerable, tempting targets...
Heh, heh, heh. Pretty soon, it's gong to be "Court-Martialed, shot and sent to the Eastern Front!" To paraphrase the SS Major's phrase from Hogan's Heroes. :D
Zelenskyy presenting Patron the bomb sniffing dog with medals for his service.
If the goal has been to break Ukraine's moral through atrocities, they have failed.
(https://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2022/05/09/fb7750f2-8f5c-4486-bf44-4b6bec33f270/thumbnail/1280x720/15d85d55b02749e8a549fb4914996c15/ukraine-dog-999779-640x360.jpg)
Also, a speech that might go down in history as one of the (hopefully) most influential speeches of this century.
Ukrainian forces have pushed deep near Kharkiv (https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1523697824344420353), making Russian supply lines more vulnerable to artillery fire and limiting Russian troop movements.
This front is in real jeopardy of collapsing and being pushed back to Russia's borders, much like the northern front was.
Lend-Lease signed by Biden! Fuhrer Putin nervous.
Dems eye 40 billion in aid to Ukraine, more than what Biden asked for.
US to send electronic warfare units to Ukraine. (https://www.defensenews.com/electronic-warfare/2022/05/09/us-sending-ukraine-electronic-jamming-gear-in-150m-package/) Basically, Ukrainian forces will be able to jam/eavesdrop enemy signals while being better able to protect themselves from such attacks.
Russia has fared poorly in electronic warfare in this conflict (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/03/russia-ukraine-electronic-warfare/) (another strategic blunder) and is set to fare even worse now.
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 10, 2022, 12:55:30 AMLend-Lease signed by Biden! Fuhrer Putin nervous.
Dems eye 40 billion in aid to Ukraine, more than what Biden asked for.
US to send electronic warfare units to Ukraine. (https://www.defensenews.com/electronic-warfare/2022/05/09/us-sending-ukraine-electronic-jamming-gear-in-150m-package/) Basically, Ukrainian forces will be able to jam/eavesdrop enemy signals while being better able to protect themselves from such attacks.
Russia has fared poorly in electronic warfare in this conflict (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/03/russia-ukraine-electronic-warfare/) (another strategic blunder) and is set to fare even worse now.
Almost seems like we actually are escalating now... the same day Putin decided not to go to general mobilization like everyone predicted.
Has Putin finally realized he bit off more than he can chew, or are we punching him while he is down? If the latter, that's concerning to know how far things can still go.
There are no brakes on the NATO train. :P
And while Putin hasn't announced a mass mobilization (yet), there has been some evidence of groundwork being laid in that direction. Additionally, Putin is redeploying troops from Syria, which is very worrisome and could prolong the conflict considerably.
As to how far this will go, with Russian troops escorted from Ukraine back to Russia, naturally.
Lithuania unanimously adopts resolution condemning Russia's ongoing genocide, declares Russia a terrorist state (https://www.rferl.org/a/lithuania-resolution-russia-genocide/31842970.html)
Quotealso called for the creation of an international court to prosecute Russian officials responsible for the war in Ukraine, similar to the Nuremberg trials
Kind of off-topic at this point in the game, but I still wonder about the opening of the war, where Putin expected to waltz into Kiev, kill teams were to take care of the Ukrainian government, and the U.S. had been warning for a long while that Russia would in fact invade Ukraine. What happened to those kill teams?
I have a suspicion that we provided detailed info on those teams and knew about them way ahead of time. I don't even doubt that special forces assisted in eliminating these 'teams'. How else did this go so awry?
From what I've read, one kill team was dangerously close to actually being successful. Afaik, all were eliminated by Ukrainian security after making varying levels of progress towards Zelensky.
Considering that there were news articles about the kill teams, it's safe to say they didn't exactly blend in and security knew of the threat well in advance.
Yeah I remember it being reporter that there were a shitload of assassins in kiev itself
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian artillery battery (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/ukraines_armed_forces_destroy_another_russian_artillery_battery_trying_to_fight_like_in_syria_video-2876.html)
What's interesting about this is that the Russians are using identical tactics to their tactics in Syria, which the Ukrainians know how to counter very well. The end result is a decisive Russian defeat.
Nearly 4 million Russian civilians have left Russia over the past 2 months. (https://mobile.twitter.com/cepa/status/1524076129656754176) (Russia's population in Jan 2022 was estimated to be 145 million)
Russia is experiencing brain drain.
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 09:40:06 AMNearly 4 million Russian civilians have left Russia over the past 2 months. (https://mobile.twitter.com/cepa/status/1524076129656754176) (Russia's population in Jan 2022 was estimated to be 145 million)
Russia is experiencing brain drain.
Well, the brains are not coming here!
I've just learned that the 4 million statistic is just the total of how many left Russia (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/06/nearly-4m-russians-left-russia-in-early-2022-fsb-a77603), and doesn't distinguish between Russians who have left temporarily and those who have left permanently. Sort of an important difference. :/
Apologies for the misleading headline.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSfBiYxXwAASREj?format=jpg&name=large)
I've seen more successful river crossings in Oregon Trail
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 02:05:05 PMI've seen more successful river crossings in Oregon Trail
Looks like they were easy pickins....maybe stuck in mud and too bunched up when they got struck.
Yep.
And you can see a couple of them without turrets and also a turret lying on the ground far away from either tank.
You saw the picture, here's the (https://news.yahoo.com/luhansk-region-bilohorivka-armed-forces-073502253.html) 1000 words (https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1524430556011933696)
Russia lost at least 32 armored vehicles in a failed river crossing.
Yikes! I'm going to need to invent new words/phrases to describe how disasterous this campaign has been.
1) Törichtkrieg
2) La grande quête des imbéciles suicidaires
3) Saltar de un acantilado mientras finge volar
4) Provocantes tauri et mori sicut stultus
Basically, I'm looking for a phrase that involves folly, self-destruction through hubris, completely avoidable and yet deliberate chosen, and is such a horrible fate that even the Devil says "Glad I'm not that guy". I'm disappointed that there's no shorthand word for it.
If it weren't for all the people dying, that theme music from the old Benny Hill show would be apropos.
Pardon me while I burst: Mysterious Explosions Rock Russia as Fire Breaks Out in Belgorod (https://www.newsweek.com/mysterious-explosions-rock-russia-fire-breaks-out-belgorod-1705476) (yes, again)
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 11, 2022, 10:53:35 PMYou saw the picture, here's the (https://news.yahoo.com/luhansk-region-bilohorivka-armed-forces-073502253.html) 1000 words (https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1524430556011933696)
Russia lost at least 32 armored vehicles in a failed river crossing.
Yikes! I'm going to need to invent new words/phrases to describe how disasterous this campaign has been.
1) Törichtkrieg
2) La grande quête des imbéciles suicidaires
3) Saltar de un acantilado mientras finge volar
4) Provocantes tauri et mori sicut stultus
Basically, I'm looking for a phrase that involves folly, self-destruction through hubris, completely avoidable and yet deliberate chosen, and is such a horrible fate that even the Devil says "Glad I'm not that guy". I'm disappointed that there's no shorthand word for it.
Sadomasochistische oorlogsvoering?
At what's being dubbed the Donets Disaster (https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1524567807479930880?s=20&t=w9DDN-lmzn_Be3xbDjXL7Q), Ukrainian forces had reconned the area, predicted the Russians would make a crossing there, and set up multiple artillery sustems targeting the area.
The Russians tried to create a pontoon bridge at the exact spot that was predicted. The Ukrainians waited until as many forces as possible were on that bridge, then gave them hell. The few vehicles that made it across were subsequently destroyed. The only Russian survivors were either far from the bridge or ones that panicked under withering artillery fire and jumped out of their vehicles to swim to safety and even a lot of those didn't make it.
Russia lost almost an entire battalion in that one crushing bombardment. Aspiring generals are going to have to study this battle at West Point. It's going to go down in history as the next Battle of Tsushima.
So... don't tell the Russians but apparently their cell phones are tracked by Ukraine. So Ukrainian forces can just pull up a map and see in near real time exactly where Russians troops are 24/7.
(https://i.redd.it/tucyj9nvx0z81.jpg)
Some Z-brand copium (now with 200% more brilliant feints)
(https://i.redd.it/j0t57godpxy81.png)
If you lose half your army every time you cross a river, you might as well go march into an active volcano.
High-octane copium: (https://i.redd.it/7byaicrimxy81.png)
Russian state media sure is mad about their big victory, which is more than a little strange.
They previously claimed that they shot down more than Ukraine's entire drone inventory, so an additional 30 is a bit...non-credible.
Also, the Ukrainians haven't had troops on Snake Island since early in the war when it was famously captured and Russian troops were stationed there. So where did the alleged Ukrainian soldiers come from? Did they teleport to the island?
And don't get me started on the alleged ships.
Oh Russian state media, never change. Because your obvious lies are so transparent that it's a reliable source of comedy for the entire world.
Siemens pulls out (https://www.npr.org/2022/05/12/1098508384/siemens-leaves-russia-over-ukraine-war)
Lights Out! Guerilla movement takes root in Crimea (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3481824-guerrilla-movement-on-rise-in-occupied-crimea.html)
From the start of the war and especially when the battle for Kyiv failed and Ukrainian forces have vowed to blow up the bridge, Russians have started packing up and leaving the peninsula. At the same time, local Ukrainians have become considerably less hospitable. They know about the genocides.
I've seen footage of locals puncturing the tires of apparently unguarded military vehicles. They've also put flyers on the windshields of Putin allies politely informing them that their affiliations are known and that they'd better leave soon for their own safety.
Afaik, there has not yet been violence, but that's just a matter of time. And should the Donbas front collapse and Ukrainian forces start to close in on Crimea, I have little doubt that they will be greatly aided by partisans. Especially if the Ukrainians finally make good on their bridge threat and Crimea is cut off from easy reinforcement. (Sea reinforcement seems increasingly unfeasible due to a rapidly shrinking Black Sea fleet)
Understanding War Campaign Assessment: May 12th (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12)
QuoteThe Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv is also forcing the Russian command to make hard choices, as it was likely intended to do.
The Russians are reportedly likely to abandon their big Izium axis push and go for much less ambitious goals.
QuoteThe Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv is starting to look very similar to the counteroffensive that ultimately drove Russian troops away from Kyiv and out of western Ukraine entirely, although it is too soon to tell if the Russians will make a similar decision here.
Good. I hope it all falls down on their heads.
QuoteThe Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Ukrainian forces fortified 170 km between Kramatorsk and Slovyansk and, falsely, that the Ukrainians are using civilians as human shields, likely in an attempt to set information conditions to explain the abandonment of the Izyum axis or justify the slow and limited advances in the area.
Wow. Always with the lying. No wonder they're not trusted.
QuoteRussian forces conducted several unsuccessful and disjointed offensive operations in northwestern Donetsk Oblast in the vicinity of Avdiivka.
Putting it mildly.
QuoteRussia is likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories directly into Russia, as opposed to creating proxy "People's Republics."
Both Kherson and Mariupol are likely to be annexed via fiat rather than unwillingly becoming part of "independent" People's Republics or even joining via phony referendum (which Ukraine has stated that they will not accept and really, nobody is fooled by such obvious falsehood)
Russian causalities by region
(https://i.redd.it/37i99crxpfz81.png)
In previous conflicts, Putin has gone to great pains to hide war dead through use of mercenaries and especially made sure that grieving families are far from Moscow.
Dollar store copium:
(https://i.imgur.com/mZ6iMfG.jpg)
By that logic, T-34 is the best tank.
(https://i.redd.it/rqpopxmidhz81.jpg)
If Finland has nothing to worry about now, then it definitely won't after joining NATO, right Vlad?
Second strongest military in the world Ukraine fooled by mannequins (https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-of-decoy-mannequins-with-weapons-in-kharkiv-as-russia-retreats-2022-5?)
Ukraine wins the battle of Kharkiv (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3482837-ukraine-wins-battle-of-kharkiv-as-russian-troops-pulling-forces-out-of-area.html)
Ukrainian forces have reportedly pushed to the Russian border, threatening Russian supply lines and causing Russian forces to retreat and regroup inside Russian territory.
QuoteRussian forces continued disjointed and unsuccessful offensive operations near the Donetsk region border, while Ukrainian forces destroyed a field command post there.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kharkiv_(2022)
Status: Ukrainian victory
Ukrainian forces capture abandoned Russian command vehicle near Kharkiv (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1525437916654313472)
This should pair nicely with "Bunny" (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-volunteer-fighters-use-tank-nicknamed-bunny-against-russian-forces-2022-5?inline-endstory-related-recommendations=), the abandoned T-80 which went on to destroy dozens of Russian vehicles and several tanks.
We're always listening: US military learning from Russian cellphone blunder (https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/russia-ukraine-cell-phones-track-combat/)
Russian soldiers give away their position by turning on their cellphones, by stealing Ukrainian phones (find my
phone artillery solution), even through stolen earbuds. Russian soldiers' penchant for looting is certainly an exploitable vulnerability.
Quote"Fortunately, Russians are quite naive and ignorant about using mobile devices, so they often call home, turning on their phones and connecting to the Ukrainian stations."
So stupid.
QuoteWhile the Russians had developed encrypted communications handsets for their special operations forces, those handsets were not widely distributed among Russian troops before the latest invasion of Ukraine,
Face meets palm.
Quotethere are now many images online showing Russian troops using cell phones or even the type of unencrypted walkie talkies that you could purchase at toy stores.
Damn, and I thought the tractor videos were embarrassing. Imagine getting your whole platoon blown to bits because you looted children's toys to use because they're better than your military gear.
Wrecked Russian jets found with GPS devices clipped to the dash (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-fighter-jets-gps-dashboard-uk-b2076376.html)
That's low-grade pizza delivery tech on Russian fighter jets. Just how bad is the corruption over there?
US howitzers helped greatly in allowing stunning Ukraine victory at Russia's disasterous river crossing (https://mobile.twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1525645044002263040?s=21)
Every aid shipment changes the future for the better.
Over 550 invader artillery silenced so far (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/14/7346109/)
Finland officially joining NATO (https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/15/europe/finland-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html)
Germany to send over 155mm self-propelled howlitzers soon (https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/a-precedent-has-been-set-germany-to-hand-over-first-heavy-weapons-to-ukraine-soon-fm-kuleba)
Russian troops deliberately wounding themselves to get out of war (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-are-now-deliberately-wounding-themselves-to-get-out-of-putins-war)
On that phone call, one soldier was telling his mother that the battery commander shot himself in the leg. The mother bemoaned the lack of "patriotism" from what I imagine is a comfy couch in a big house in St. Petersburg.
Really, I think they're both celebrating May Day in their own ways - one group is cheering May Day and the other group is crying "mayday!"
Russia has lost a third of its forces (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1525773859613511681) and the Donbas offensive has stalled out and unlikely to resume
This dovetails with reports that Russian forces have largely shifted from an offensive to a defensive stance, except for the ones retreating, of course.
(https://preview.redd.it/zhvh0qewgpz81.png?width=824&format=png&auto=webp&s=98190c854c54983497eb379d96c0f6190c7b5714)
This time it'll definitely work unless someone leaks it to the Ukrainians or something.
(https://i.redd.it/sov4w3rk7tz81.jpg)
Pictured, dozens of Finnish snipers:
(https://previews.123rf.com/images/juhku/juhku1506/juhku150600164/41803553-winter-wald-und-schnee-in-finnland-am-abend-zeit.jpg)
Paraphrased: "Do not come here. Your army is large and our country is small. We would run out of space to bury them all."
^ Where's Waldo!? :D
In the past 24 hours, Allies delivered 10 airlifts of aid to Ukraine from 7 different nations (https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1526211438011895808)
Institute of War, May 15th (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15)
QuoteRussian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry.
Mix 'n match. Now that's desperate.
QuoteThe Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight.
Recycled strat. Sure to work just as well today as it did yesterday.
QuoteRussian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower. Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves.
What's left of the VDV with whatever gun-shy civilian-murdering scum left of Wagner. I bet they're best pals.
Buckle up, buckaroo: Russia to produce cars without antilock brakes, airbags, and other basic safety features (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1526184134439231488) after foreign auto companies leave Russia behind
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 16, 2022, 08:46:25 PMBuckle up, buckaroo: Russia to produce cars without antilock brakes, airbags, and other basic safety features (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1526184134439231488) after foreign auto companies leave Russia behind
Yet another way to reduce and or maim their population. Slow clap...
"I'm okay to go" (repeated) Russian attack helicopters have a serious vibration problem (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-ka-52-attack-helicopters-have-got-a-serious-vibration-problem)
QuoteVideo clips showing Ka-52s operating with their stub wings rapidly bouncing up and down began to appear on social media in recent weeks and there has already been speculation that the issue could lead to "mechanical failures and vibration-induced fatigue."
It can also make the weapons more likely to miss and could also hamper sensors.
QuoteFinally, we discussed the videos with a helicopter pilot currently serving, who has direct experience of trials involving the service clearance of weapons and stub wings.
"This looks like they haven't even heard of damping," he remarked.
"I utterly ruined my country, who wants to follow suit?"
Russia seeks to "ramp up" Putin-allied countries' militaries (https://www.newsweek.com/putin-tries-ramping-allies-military-capabilities-counter-nato-1706946)
QuoteOn Monday, Putin spoke alongside leaders from Russia's allies in Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at a Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Moscow.
He called on the countries to streamline their operations and ensure that various law enforcement agencies and security services are working in coordination, adding that his administration will equip forces with the latest weaponry.
*howling laughter*
Firstly, Russia has precious little to spare, and what little it has is being wrecked and spread out in Ukrainian fields, submerged in Ukrainian rivers, or undergoing special undersea operations in the Black Sea.
Secondly, NATO contains most of the world's richest and most powerful countries. It is mathematically impossible to match it on remotely even terms. What a joke.
Third, how many allies does Russia truly have? (Tellingly, why aren't any of them in Ukraine?) Hitler, Putin's inspiration, built more tight-knit and more enduring alliances than Putin could ever hope to make.
Russia doesn't have allies, it has countries that have had the misfortune of temporarily falling under Russia's sphere of influence. When Russia's influence wanes, their private feelings will be made public.
Russian people surprised to learn that the war isn't going well (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-kodaryonok-60-minutes-1707270)
Quotea former air defense commander turned military commentator, who in 2020 was awarded a "Merit to the Fatherland" medal
I wonder what kind of salute he made when he got that medal...
Quote"An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests," he wrote
Meanwhile, earlier this month, he told Russia-1 that general mobilization of the Russian population would not accomplish much because Russia had outdated weapons that could not compete with NATO-supplied arms.
Putler: "Don't worry, this war will improve your lives" (https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-tells-russians-not-to-worry-this-will-make-your-lives-better)
Tell that to the families of the Moskva sailors. They didn't even get the meager death benefits Putin promised them.
Guerilla fighters in Melitopol reportedly destroyed an armored train (https://news.yahoo.com/guerrillas-blow-russian-armoured-train-131739180.html) and killed several high-ranking Russian officers (https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1526723550190751745?t=npteiA7OucNtJmr_FVcdJQ&s=19)
A fool for a client: Putin micromanaging military forces, despite complete lack of training/experience (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fopinion%2F2022%2F05%2F18%2Fvladimir-putin-micromanaging-way-military-collapse%2F)
Additionally, this means that he personally engineered some of Russia's most devastating defeats, like the disasterous river crossing, and can't convincingly deflect blame to a subordinate when angry Russians demand to hold someone accountable for this disaster.
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 18, 2022, 08:58:39 PMA fool for a client: Putin micromanaging military forces, despite complete lack of training/experience (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fopinion%2F2022%2F05%2F18%2Fvladimir-putin-micromanaging-way-military-collapse%2F)
Additionally, this means that he personally engineered some of Russia's most devastating defeats, like the disasterous river crossing, and can't convincingly deflect blame to a subordinate when angry Russians demand to hold someone accountable for this disaster.
Deja vu, 1945. Putler just needs that little mustache.
On May 18th, Ukraine's Airforce destroys 20 armored vehicles, 1 plane, 1 cruise missile (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_air_force_downs_russian_su_34_cruise_missile_eliminates_20_combat_armored_vehicles-2981.html)
Ukrainians make two successful river crossings and attack Russian supply lines NE of Kharkiv (https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1526814175074336768?s=20&t=vEf8KJNTulaJgJBSAnQcRA)
Catching some Zs: Ukrainian forces show tank graveyard consisting of 80 Russian armored vehicles (https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-soldiers-show-z-tank-graveyard-after-80-vehicles-blown-up-in-one-battle/)
(Aftermath of failed river crossing)
Russia says an opening of Ukrainian ports requires "a review of sanctions first"
(https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/moscow-says-opening-ukraine-ports-would-need-review-of-sanctions-on-russia-interfax)
1) How about NO
2) Thanks for incentivizing the liberation of Ukrainian ports. Now, even neutral countries have a vested interest on Russia losing control of Ukraine.
Belogrod complaints about being attacked, fine with doing the atacking (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/19/belgorod-the-russian-city-on-the-ukraine-frontline)
Quote"We talk a lot about what is happening, of course. The atmosphere in the city is sort of tense," said Anna, a local teacher.
"Life goes on, but sometimes it is impossible to ignore it, like the time the city was in thick smoke," she said, referring to the fuel depot attack.
You reap what you sow, and the Ukrainians are quite good at reaping.
Thank your lucky stars they show restraint and don't repay your dark deeds one-to-one.
QuoteAnd while the consensus among military experts remains that Ukraine will not aim for a push into Russian territory, its advances have been met with unease in Belgorod and across Russia.
Note: Belgorod was the main site for military buildup for many months before the invasion of Ukraine.
Value of companies leaving Russia estimated at roughly half of Russia's GDP (https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/news/companies-leaving-russia-gdp-exports-fdi)
QuoteAcademics at the Yale School of Management have found that revenue drawn from the (near) 1,000 companies curtailing or ending operations in Russia is equivalent to approximately 45% of Russia's gross domestic product (GDP).
For perspective, Russia's GDP is roughly the same as Texas's GDP.
Russian checkpoint near Kherson (https://mobile.twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1526577685094445059)
They might be running low on usable equipment, lol.
What a sad situation. Let us just hope the US government doesn't make it worse.
British intelligence says that Russia's military is hampered by cover-ups and scapegoating (https://www.thedailybeast.com/uk-intelligence-says-russian-army-hampered-by-cover-ups-and-scapegoating-under-putin?via=newsletter&source=BI-CS-All)
Putin's ongoing sacking of generals means that generals are "increasingly distracted by efforts to avoid personal culpability for Russia's operational set-backs."
Due to heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia preparing to enlist older people (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussian-parliament-consider-allowing-over-40s-sign-up-military-2022-05-20%2F)
Quoteparliament said on Friday it would consider a bill to allow Russians over 40 and foreigners over 30 to sign up for the military.
Reportedly, they've also begun "volunteering" people with disabilities in occupied Donbas. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3487657-russia-drafting-persons-with-disabilities-into-invasion-force-sbu.html)
Russia fires $6.5 million missile and hits... a beachfront toilet. (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/20/7347451/)
At least that's one less toilet they can steal.
Ehhh, that stinker had it coming. :D
Crappy aim :P
Well, shit.
Russian troops are starting to use sandbags (novel technology), and these geniuses decided to use ammonium nitrate instead of sand (https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1527454308115042305)
At first, I thought that this is too dumb to be true, but then I remembered that these are the same brainiacs who camped out in a forest that's so radioactive that it literally changed the colors of the trees.
Russian state TV: War in Ukraine rehearsal for war with NATO (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-russia-1-60-minutes-fenenko-1708500?amp=1)
Quote"We'll test and compare NATO weapons with our own. We'll find out on the battlefield how much stronger our weapons are than theirs," he said.
LOL dare ya.
Actually, they have had a taste of it in Syria when Wagner forces were mauled by US forces. Suffice it to say that it was not peer level.
Earlier, Putin said Russia was deploying laser weapons to combat drones (no doubt to embolden troops who have been savaged by them)
Well, turns out that was all talk. The Pentagon sees no evidence of laser weapons at all. (https://defence-blog.com/pentagon-denies-reports-of-russia-fielding-laser-weapons-in-ukraine/)
In the South, Ukrainian forces destroyed 36 invaders, three T-72 tanks, and a Grad multiple rocket launcher (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3488433-ukraines-armed-forces-eliminate-36-invaders-3-tanks-grad-launcher-in-south.html)
In the luhansk region, Ukrainian forces hold back a surge of Russian invaders (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3488682-ukraine-forces-fending-off-russian-offensive-in-luhansk-region-as-enemy-targets-sievierodonetsk.html) as they wait for western artillery to be brought in so they can conduct a proper counter-offensive.
Ukrainian forces "stole" a BMP (armored troop transport) apparently left by the river (https://au.topnews.media/ukraine/butusov-yuriy-ukrainian-defenders-stole-bmp-from-the-commander-of-the-motorized-infantry-brigade-of-the-occupiers-furduy-butusov-photo-20-05-22-2100-war-in-ukraine/)
Top Russian sniper killed in Ukraine (https://africa.businessinsider.com/news/a-top-russian-army-sniper-has-been-killed-in-ukraine-say-reports-in-the-latest-blow/ve5en07)
VDV Captain killed in Ukraine (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1503310504466526208)
This guy was not only high-ranking, but family of a high-ranking Russian official (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yunus-bek_Yevkurov).
Russian propagandist shot videos with Russian heavy mortar vehicle. Less than 24 hours later, Ukrainians forces blow it to bits (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1528046140847198210)
Lessons learned:
1) operational secrecy is important - location can be figured out from footage (you'd think they would've figured this out after the assault landing ship Saratov sank after being in shown off in propaganda footage and was similarly targeted and destroyed)
2) artillery that remains stationary is a sitting duck for counter-battery fire (shoot-and-scoot is artillery 101)
3) Very poor cover/concealment. Practically begging to be destroyed.
Conclusion: Russia repeatedly botches warfare basics and reaps the reward.
A bridge too far: Ukrainian forces destroy another pontoon bridge, deny another Russian river crossing (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3488989-ukraines-forces-destroy-russian-enemy-equipment-pontoon-bridge-over-siverskyi-donets.html)
Apparently there have been several of these lately but I assumed they were reposts of the same news item. Instead, the Russians suffered a catastrophic loss and decided to do it again and again. Smh.
Ukrainian Air Force destroys two flamethrower vehicles, 10 other military vehicles (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3489110-ukrainian-air-force-destroys-two-russian-solntsepek-heavy-flamethrower-systems.html)
They also destroyed several artillery vehicles near Zaporizhzhia with the help of guerillas (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-praises-guerrilla-fighters-aid-destroying-russian-artillery-1708902)
Russia is now likely facing a shortage of drones (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-likely-facing-uncrewed-aerial-vehicles-shortage-uk-says-2022-05-21/)
Russia reportedly no longer provides soldiers basic equipment, forcing them to pay thousands of USD or go without (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/20/we-have-to-buy-everything-ourselves-how-russian-soldiers-go-off-to-fight-a77751) (no wonder they have a morale problem!)
Biden signs $40 billion military assistance into law (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3488770-biden-signs-law-on-40b-assistance-for-ukraine.html)
Near Lviv, Ukrainian forces shoot down an Su-25 plane and destroyed 14 paratroopers (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3489412-lviv-paratroopers-shoot-down-russian-su25-plane.html)
Strange place to attack, so far from the front lines and so close to Poland.
Russian state media says they destroyed a western arms shipment, but Russian state media says a lot of things and isn't credible. Still, it makes sense that they'd be trying to do that there, they just likely weren't successful, otherwise western media would be abuzz about it.
Zelensky says that Ukraine loses about 50-100 soldiers a day (https://www.newsweek.com/nearly-100-ukraine-servicemen-could-die-every-day-east-region-zelensky-1708968), which is troubling.
But they currently have 700,000 total troops.
And they take comparatively light losses compared to the Russians, who lose at least 200 on any given day, based on reports I've seen. Sometimes, it's much higher than that. On rare occasions, they lose the equivalent of a whole battalion, which is around 600-700.
Russian forces are predicted to become too depleted to continue within 90 days (https://www.newsweek.com/military-expert-gives-putins-forces-90-days-ukraine-1706246), far sooner than Ukranian forces. Still, that's 4500 - 9000 Ukrainian kia by then. Not good.
But the predictions, which have been on track so far, give Ukraine a total victory as Russian lines collapse from attrition.
Desperate: Russia tries to prepare T-62 tanks (from the 1960s) to replenish ranks. (https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/russia_to_prepare_soviet_era_t_62m_tanks_to_replenish_reserves-3033.html)
Quoteit is extremely difficult to call these machines effective, as it's really difficult to conduct combat operations having the 15-mm gun, without both automatic loading and ancient fire control system and night vision.
This is the equivalent of hauling your Ford Pinto out of storage because the road proved too dangererous for your CR-V and Honda Accord. Third time's a charm!
Ukraine air defense shoots down 4 naval-fired cruise missiles near-simultaneously (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_air_forces_of_the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_set_new_record_over_zhytomyr_region_on_downed_russias_caliber_missiles-3032.html). The missiles were targeting Ukrainian infrastructure (and possibly an outhouse)
They've shot down 110 cruise missiles so far.
The Kremlin's bombardment strategy, which must've seemed great on paper, doesn't appear to be nearly as effective in reality. Very expensive and burning through a very limited stockpile of precision missiles.
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 23, 2022, 02:23:52 PMUkraine air defense shoots down 4 naval-fired cruise missiles near-simultaneously (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_air_forces_of_the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_set_new_record_over_zhytomyr_region_on_downed_russias_caliber_missiles-3032.html). The missiles were targeting Ukrainian infrastructure (and possibly an outhouse)
They've shot down 110 cruise missiles so far.
The Kremlin's bombardment strategy, which must've seemed great on paper, doesn't appear to be nearly as effective in reality. Very expensive and burning through a very limited stockpile of precision missiles.
Got me to wondering if the US military forces would be almost as vulnerable to anti-ship, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and drones? Could say, 150 anti-ship missiles launched at the same time by a certain large Asian country take out a bazillion-dollar US nuclear powered aircraft carrier? We saw glimpses of this in Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
US naval vessels currently prioritize anti-missile defenses and are working on anti-drone defenses, afaik.
All modern ground forces are highly vulnerable to drone technology, especially those whose military doctrine relies heavily on massed tank columns (Russia and China)
All nations would be wise to rethink any military adventurism and seriously contemplate another strategy for the time being.
The T-62 situation is even worse for Russia than I thought (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1528907746971684864.html)
QuoteRU has potentially nearly exhausted its immediately operable reserves of T-64s, T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s.
Because why use an antiqued tank if you can use a more modern one? The only possible reason is that there are few modern tanks available for use, which is strange because Russia supposedly has thousands of modern(ish) tanks in storage. They must be in an advanced state of disrepair to necessitate the desperate act of turning to the T-62s.
Personal theory: thanks to corruption, much of the stockpiled tanks may have been poorly serviced and may even have had components illegally sold for graft money, rendering many if not most of them inoperable. Naturally, the more modern components are more in demand and fetch higher prices, so the T-62s were affected less by this practice than the newer tanks.
After all, who's going to notice or care about some old tanks in storage? They've been rusting for years and years, so who cares if one is missing a part here or a part there? What are the odds that some mad dictactor will start a crazy war and burn through the main tank force like a hot knife through butter?
QuoteSummary: Russia likely has at most ~3,100 deployable tanks before it has totally exhausted its active and operable stockpiled tanks. Given they have suffered ~1,300 loses in the first 3 months, I'm skeptical they can continue combat operations through the end of the year.
Another mysterious fire in Russia (https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1528771836233670657?s=21&t=gOe36jnpxUHCNE6nq8UyeQ), this time at a strategic rocket site, burning down a regiment command post
US: 20 nations to send new weapons to Ukraine (https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000008364069/russia-ukraine-war-weapons-austin.html?smid=pl-share)
In the east in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled 16 enemy attacks (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3490531-ukrainian-joint-forces-repel-16-enemy-attacks-destroy-eight-tanks.html), destroyed 8 tanks, 22 armored vehicles, and 1 err...other vehicle. Also, 7 drones.
Z marks the spot: Ukrainian forces blow up a Russian command post (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3490187-ukraine-army-hits-russian-command-post-with-natostandard-howitzer.html) using a NATO-standard howitzer. Distance of over 20km. Suffice it to say they're quick learners.
Quote"The artillery men of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Zakarpattia Brigade have hit a senior staff base of one of Russian military units. The Z-marked military off-road vehicle and several rashists standing nearby were destroyed. The shot was fired from a howitzer delivered to Ukraine as part of NATO's assistance,"
It's all a feint: "Russia slowing down offensive on purpose to avoid civilian casualties" (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/24/7348210/) - Sergei 'serious as a heart attack' Shoigu
If you beleive that, I have a high-rise in Mauripol to sell ya.
Hoisted by their own petard: Russian mortar team destroyed by Ukrainian forces using captured mortars (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3491384-russians-get-destroyed-with-their-own-mortar-systems.html). Result: more captured mortars!
They also destroyed a tank because why not.
Due to sanctions, Russian fleet reduced to using chinese household appliances in their ships (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3490837-russia-installs-on-warships-components-from-chinamade-household-appliances-intelligence-report.html)
And no, they're not being used in the mess hall. They're used to maintain buoyancy. Imagine taking the circuit from a rice cooker and slotting it into critical naval systems. What could go wrong?
Probably related to the fact that Ukraine has been receiving new Harpoon anti-ship missiles as well as the overall poor state of the Black Sea fleet, some Russian sailors are refusing to undertake combat missions. Good on them. Stay close to port, because you never know when "rough seas" will hit your ship, so you definitely want to stay as close to land as possible.
Moscow removes upper age limit on military service (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-lawmakers-vote-scrap-upper-age-limit-military-2022-05-25/)
Apparently, they need manpower bad but for some reason can't mass-mobilize.
Invaders using scorched earth tactics (https://v.redd.it/0q079dzlhu191)
Orwellian: Invaders use propaganda vehicles to lie to the public in temporarily occupied Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/russia-uses-orwellian-propaganda-news-vans-in-mariupol)
(https://i.imgur.com/0eAmHjQ.jpeg)
In more positive news, Finland's Prime Minister visited Zelensky in Kyiv.
(https://i.redd.it/3aafeld30u191.jpg)
Ukraine receives 14 Su-25 aircraft (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1529780002065195008), albeit in disassembled form.
Also, Lithuanians are crowdfunding Bayaraktars for Ukraine. Those things are probably the best bang-per-buck in Ukraine's arsenal and absolutely terrify invaders, so getting more of them in the air is a big deal.
This invader just wants to go home and go back to his construction job and his family. By all means, don't delay!
And get some serious therapy because those laughing fits in between talking about utter carnage, that's not healthy.
Snorting one's own propaganda or sheer arrogance? Moscow expects Ukraine to legitimize conquered territory (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/26/7348648/)
Another Russian official demands an end to this disasterous war (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-official-demands-putin-end-ukraine-war-invasion-escorted-out-meeting-1710770), gets escorted out of a high-level meeting, branded a traitor, and denied the right to vote (for an election that's already predetermined)
QuoteSpeaking on behalf of four party members in a rare critique of what Putin describes a "special military operation," Vasyukevich said he and his colleagues had signed an appeal to the president.
A key difference between dictatorships and democracies: dictatorships can't change from within.
Russia's (and China's) most advanced fighter shot down in Ukraine and enough of the plane is intact for it to be researched by UK/US governments (https://eurasiantimes.com/big-blow-to-chinese-russian-air-force-fighter-jet-uk-us/?amp)
QuoteNow, as scientists in the United States and the United Kingdom investigate the remnants of a fighter jet, experts believe it might make a "huge difference" in how the West conducts air-to-air warfare with both Russia and China, inflicting a severe blow to Russia's military and industrial complex.
Scientia potentia est.
Russian invader deaths hit the 30k mark (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3494180-ukraines-armed-forces-kill-about-30000-russian-soldiers.html)
Edit - maybe as high as 33k (https://mobile.twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1530464255442575360)
On the southern front over the past day, Russia lost 63 troops, 6 helicopters, 3 tanks. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3494105-russian-losses-in-ukraines-south-in-past-day-over-60-soldiers-six-helicopters-three-tanks.html)
Zel's Counterattack: Ukrainian forces launch major counteroffensive with the goal of liberating Kherson (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-southern-counterattack-against-russian-forces-underway).
Currently, they have pushed fairly deep into enemy territory NE of Kherson and are attempting to cut enemy supply lines there.
115 members of Putin's privaye army fired for refusing to fight
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/27/115-russian-national-guard-soldiers-sacked-for-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine)
QuoteThe Pentagon said this month that it had seen "anecdotal reports" that "mid-grade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level", had "either refused to obey orders" or were not obeying them with the expected measure of "alacrity".
Too predictable: In the southern front, Ukrainian forces plant mine on Russian route and remotely detonate it with perfect timing. Ka-Boom! (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/ukraines_explosive_ambush_in_occupied_kherson_region_videos-3108.html)
Destroys one of these loaded with personnel:
(https://www.army-technology.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/09/1l-image-62.jpg)
"mine-resistant"
The wretched state of russian invader equipment:
(https://i.redd.it/pj35psjn6g291.jpg)
Archaic rifles, what I hope is a radio, basically nil body armor (where tf are their helmets?!), and that's about it. I'm not even sure if they get rations or just eat whatever they can forage/steal.
These guys might as well surrender just to have a hot meal and a decent place to sleep.
Cause otherwise, they're goners. That Z might as well stand for 'zero chance'. A technical alone could probably do the trick, let alone a mortar-dropping drone. Heaven forbid an armored convoy comes through there.
And you better believe drones are drawn to that tricolor like vultures to roadkill. They can literally see that flag from a mile away.
Just go away and save everyone unnecessary hardship.
I served in the US Navy, '72-'76, and in defense for another 27 years in the interval from '76 until 2014, when I retired (intervening years include insurance claims adjuster and high school teacher). We had an expectation about what the USSR (yes, I'm that old) could do. I remember when the USSR was crumbling and the US was asked to sequester fissile Uranium that could have potentially fallen into the wrong hands. What I'm seeing now is way worse. If the USSR/CIS/whatever it is called now, drops any lower in power, The Chinese are right there to pick up the reins. I consider the US manufacturing companies who transferred their capability to China to be greed monsters. The US suffers and is going to suffer for this mistake.
Reading the current Institute of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28) and it's like reading the academic assessment of Ralph Wiggim.
QuoteUkraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong.
Putler is losing thousands of troops and ludicrous amounts of military hardware for some podunk town in the middle of nowhere just to eke out a purely political "win" whose cost was so horrendous that calling it pyrrhic would be an understatement. Double pyrrhic? Literally stabbing the sea would be more productive.
QuoteThe Russians continue to make extremely limited progress in their efforts to gain control of the unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast, meanwhile. Russian troops have struggled to penetrate the pre-February 24 line of contact for weeks, while Russian offensive operations from Izyum to the south remain largely stalled.
Invaders have been pushed out of Kharkiv and have yet to make any real progress since then. I do not expect this to change.
QuoteRussian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective.
No wonder the Ukrainians picked now for their southern counter-offensive. The Russians put everything they had into a haymaker that didn't quite connect and got jabbed in the side for their trouble.
QuoteMoscow will not be able to recoup large amounts of effective combat power even if it seizes Severdonetsk, because it is expending that combat power frivolously on taking the city.
Win or lose, they're spent. Idiotic.
QuoteThe Ukrainians continue to receive supplies and materiel from their allies as well, however slow and limited that flow may be. The Russians, in contrast, continue to manifest clear signs that they are burning through their available reserves of manpower and materiel with no reason to expect relief in the coming months.
Music to my ears.
QuoteEvidence of eroding military professionalism in the Russian officer corps is mounting. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.[1] Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines.
Morale problem turned into a casualty problem. How efficient.
QuoteZhychkovskiy noted that Russian commanders are responsible for high losses and cases of insanity among servicemen.
Full. Metal. Jacket.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on May 29, 2022, 11:45:11 PMI served in the US Navy, '72-'76, and in defense for another 27 years in the interval from '76 until 2014, when I retired (intervening years include insurance claims adjuster and high school teacher). We had an expectation about what the USSR (yes, I'm that old) could do.
Did it involve dusting off T-62s for use in 2022 because a 3-month war had chewed through about a third of their armor?
The USSR might've been a tough customer, but the Russian Federation is without a doubt a shadow of that. Corruption has eaten through a lot of what was left.
And you're right, China is much better positioned as a true rival for the West. China plays a much more cautious game and wisely stays out of foreign entanglements (for the most part). But one misstep could have them right where Russia is now. Even the idea of that is helpful in curbing their advances. In time, they'll hopefully be the last of a dying breed of despotic states.
Ukrainian forces launch successful counterattack NE of Kherson (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3495356-ukrainian-troops-launch-successful-counterattack-south-of-kryvyi-rih.html)
Russian losses: 63 troops, 19 units of equipment (some combination of T-72 tanks, Grad multiple rocket launcher, artillery, helicopters, and one Su-35 aircraft)
The Russians previously lost 6 helicopters in that area in short order, so those skies are looking awfully clear. Not good for anyone on the ground.
Update to the above (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3495349-ukraines-armed-forces-eliminate-67-aggressors-six-tanks-command-post-in-south.html)^
Exact losses:
67 troops
6 T-62 tanks (yep, already lol)
2 Grad multiple rocket launchers
3 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers
3 armored personnel vehicles
13 *ahem* other vehicles
an Orlan-10 drone
And last but not least... a command post.
(*sung to tune of 12 Days of Christmas*)
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 12:49:42 AMDid it involve dusting off T-62s for use in 2022 because a 3-month war had chewed through about a third of their armor?
The USSR might've been a tough customer, but the Russian Federation is without a doubt a shadow of that. Corruption has eaten through a lot of what was left.
And you're right, China is much better positioned as a true rival for the West. China plays a much more cautious game and wisely stays out of foreign entanglements (for the most part). But one misstep could have them right where Russia is now. Even the idea of that is helpful in curbing their advances. In time, they'll hopefully be the last of a dying breed of despotic states.
Reminds me of Fallout 3 where the game takes place well after a US-China conflict in which nukes were liberally used on both sides. Fun in a game, but not in real life.
Russia says attacks on Russian-invaded territory in Ukraine are "outrageous" (https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-attacks-russian-controlled-territory-ukraine-are-outrageous-2022-05-30/)
Hyprocrisy, thy name is Russia!
Slow learners: Chornobaivka struck by Ukrainian forces again (https://mobile.twitter.com/f_o_r_Ukraine/status/1531210430231855104) (I've lost count of how many times this has haappened) this time it blew up an ammo depot
Ukrainian soldier downs third Russian aircraft in two months (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3496016-national-guard-conscript-downs-three-enemy-attack-aircrafts-in-zaporizhzhia-region.html)
You read that right, some guy on the ground with a MANPAD is downing Russian planes like he's at a turkey shoot.
Latest kill was a Su-25 aircraft with an Igla (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K38_Igla). Imagine what he could do with a Stinger or Starstreak.
NATO declares that it is no longer bound to 1997 treaty with Russia (https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1705708/nato-is-no-longer-bound-by-commitments-to-russia-and-will-beef-up-eastern-europe-presence-says-deputy-secretary-general) to refrain from military buildup in eastern europe if Russia does the same.
Suffice it to say that Russia has somewhat violated that treaty. Just a tad.
As such, NATO is no longer bound to this bad-faith treaty and is now free to establish bases wherever its members wish. And Poland wants new NATO bases in its east (https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-05-20/poland-new-bases-us-army-troops-russia-6066581.html) (currently, they're mostly in Poland's west (https://d2v9ipibika81v.cloudfront.net/uploads/sites/23/presence_eng_small.jpg))
The same day, Russia declared that it'll build new bases in its west (https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/20/russia-to-build-12-new-military-bases-in-the-west-in-response-to-nato-expansion). And as Ukraine's experience has shown, Russian military buildups along its frontiers are not necessarily defensive in nature.
Terrified Chechens avoid potential war draft (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F05%2F28%2Fterrified-chechens-flee-avoid-ukraine-call-up-casualties-mount%2F)
Quote"People agreed to this dangerous work because of the hopelessness of things here," she said. "But nobody knew that they would die in someone else's special operation."
Press X to doubt
QuoteThe Z and V insignia of Russia's main battle groups in Ukraine, now adopted by pro-war supporters in Russia, have been plastered across buildings in Grozny. Seemingly everywhere, there are posters of Kadyrov in military uniform and calling for volunteers.
It's beginning to look a lot like fascism...🎵🎶
QuoteMost of these young Chechen men have fled to central Russia or Turkey, which has a large Chechen diaspora. Some have also travelled to live with relatives in Europe.
"There are rumours of mass mobilisation," he said. "Today, many young guys who do not want to go to war are leaving Chechnya.
Russian general orders his troops to the front line, mexican standoff ensues, almost becomes a fragging (https://news.yahoo.com/intercepted-audio-shows-russian-soldiers-102055444.html)
Morale problem is an understatement.
Looks like meat's back on the menu, boys!"
(https://polanddaily24.com/5011-39today-we-ate-a-terrier39-russian-soldier39s-shocking-confession)
(https://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2965967/762x508/crop;webp=auto;jpeg_quality=60.jpg)
QuoteYou know, it's f**ked up. We have our a**es kicked by Ukrainians. We have nothing to eat. Today we ate a Yorkshire terrier" - wrote a Russian soldier staying in the Russian-occupied Kherson region in correspondence quoted by the Security Service of Ukraine.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUE1QfYWUAE1zW3?format=png&name=small)
Oof, I felt that "it's okay" lie at the end.
Not saying it's false, but something about the idea of a Ruscist grunt knowing the difference between a Yorkshire Terrier and their own ass seems a bit far fetched to me.
*shrugs* Maybe he googled it with his cellphone or maybe his buds told him. I'd be curious about what sort of dog it was too.
Besides, is it any more outlandish than Russians stealing toilets, Russians with rations that expired 7 years ago, using tanks from the 60s, tanks festooned with loot, including a boiler and children's Disney blankets, Russians getting one of their tanks stolen by gypsies (hell, there's a video of a civilian riding on top of a stolen russian tank while eating pizza. Who wakes up and puts that on their itinerary?), a russian soldier running over his commander with a tank, one KIA russian soldier found with a pink vibrator in his breast pocket (not that there's anything wrong with that), a russian soldier throwing a dog and a grenade into a washing machine, etc. A LOT of odd things have happened so far.
Odd things happen in war and these are certainly odd people. Desperation, zero discipline, and lack of adult supervision are a potent combination.
False story or not, the desperate food situation is real. For some reason, lack of food tends to happen when the area is devastated with scorched earth tactics.
Apparently some Ukrainian teenagers came across some hidden Russian rations and stole them. (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1531177358421544962)
Russian state TV said they'd conquer Stonehenge (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-anchorman-known-putins-voice-wants-moscow-take-stonehenge-1711482)
Satire is dead and the dividing line between fact and fiction is more unclear than the boundary between the atmosphere and outer space.
Two more russian colonels KIA, one of which was "best" paratroop commander (https://news.yahoo.com/putin-loses-two-more-colonels-093112903.html)
Pushing up sunflowers 🌻 🌻
White Russia, bloody hands: Belarus preparing to supply genocidal Russia with tanks (https://uawire.org/kyiv-belarus-removing-tanks-from-storage-to-hand-them-over-to-russia)
Lately there has been a lot of speculation about this, but now it looks like it's finally going through: US to send $700 million worth of military aid to Ukraine, including MLRS systems with a range of 80km. (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-has-promised-us-not-fire-new-50-mile-range-rockets-russia-1711887) With the stipulation that they may only be fired at targets within Ukraine, not in Russia. Ukraine's gov has agreed to this stipulation.
This hardware is expected to be a game-changer in these artillery duels, perfect for annihilating russian artillery and ending the war much more quickly and reducing casualties on both sides. (Though of course, the presence of mind necessary to recognize defeat will be the main limiter for russian casualties)
Russia repeats mistakes (https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/russian-military-is-repeating-mistakes-in-eastern-ukraine-u-s-says/) (water is wet)
QuoteIn the early weeks of the war, Russia ran its military campaign out of Moscow, with no central war commander on the ground to call the shots, U.S. and other Western officials said.
Quotethe invasion is not "proceeding particularly differently in the east than in the west because they haven't been able to change the character of the Russian army," said Frederick Kagan, a senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. "There are some deep flaws in the Russian army that they could not have repaired in the last few weeks even if they had tried. The flaws are deep and fundamental."
At the top of that list is the Russian army's lack of a noncommissioned officer corps empowered to think for itself, Pentagon officials said. U.S. troops have sergeants, platoon leaders and corporals who are given tasks and guidelines and left to accomplish those tasks as they see fit.
But Russia's military follows a Soviet-style doctrinal method in which troops at the bottom are not empowered to point out flaws in strategy that should be obvious or to make adjustments.
QuoteAfter renewing an assault on the Donbas, Russia has pounded cities and villages with a barrage of artillery. But troops have not followed that up with any kind of sustained armored invasion, which is necessary to hold the territory they are flattening, military officials say. That means that Russia may find itself struggling to hold on to gains — as it did in Kharkiv.
"Are you willing to fight for your country?"
"Absolutely"
"Great, here's a sign-up sheet..."
*runs away* Oh brave Sir Robin!
From Gary Kasparov's twitter - what other countries would have to "willingly concede to end the war" if it was Russia invading them.
Edit - about to go to work, so don't have time to edit image and post it, here is link to the post.
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1532048112835076096
Quote from: Shiranu on June 01, 2022, 01:52:18 PMFrom Gary Kasparov's twitter - what other countries would have to "willingly concede to end the war" if it was Russia invading them.
Edit - about to go to work, so don't have time to edit image and post it, here is link to the post.
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1532048112835076096
All I know is that if Mexico declared Texas and New Mexico to be "independent" republics, sent tanks there, and then tried some fake referendums for them to join Mexico, all hell would break loose - we would hit them with everything we have and we would not accept any territory changes whatsoever.
No one should expect others to accept things they would never accept.
Besides, any "face-saving" reward for this invasion/genocide attempt will just encourage more attempts in the future. This needs to hurt so bad that no one tries anything like this again for a long, long time.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 01, 2022, 02:50:09 PMAll I know is that if Mexico declared Texas and New Mexico to be "independent" republics...
Now that wouldn't be a case of the pot calling the kettle black....lol.
Hey now, the US stole that land, fair and square! /sarc
Sad to say, but not many countries that border each other haven't taken land at some point or another. But the point is, that's not how things should be done anymore.
If we were in Ukraine's position, we wouldn't cede territory (cede territory - that term sounds so clinical and emotionally distant. These are people's homes and hometowns! And gone because some dictactor has some weird imperialistic ambition? The people should be happy and he should kick rocks, not the other way around!)
You have failed me for the last time: Putin fires five generals as Russia's military failures continue (https://www.newsweek.com/putin-fires-five-generals-russia-military-failures-ukraine-continue-1712053)
In the southern front, Russia loses two high-speed landing craft (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3497869-ukraine-forces-destroy-two-russian-landing-boats-in-the-dniprobuh-estuary.html) (sunk in their estuary hideout)
Also, Ukrainian forces destroyed an anti-aircraft system, a self-propelled artillery unit, four T-72 tanks, four armored vehicles, three trucks, three drones, and three field munition depots.
You read that right. Three. ammo. depots.
♪...And a Putin in a Kremlin...♫
Wishful thinking, I know.
Impressed by Lithuanian fundraiser for Bayaraktar drone, Turkey gives one for free. (https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1709171/turkey-gifts-lithuania-bayraktar-drone-to-hand-it-over-to-ukraine) 1.5M euros will be used to fully equip the drone, the remaining 4.4M euros will be used for humanitarian/military/reconstruction aid to Ukraine.
US plans to sell Gray Eagle drones to Ukraine. (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-plans-to-sell-ukraine-armed-mq-1c-gray-eagle-drones-report) Equipped with hellfire missiles. These are essentially upgraded Predator drones. Yeah, gloves are off.
Russia asks China for financial assistance, REJECTED because China fears Allies cutting it off from critical tech (https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1532621982109507585)
Russia thinks China has its back, not realizing that China only really has China's back.
In the south, Ukrainian forces catch the invaders "with their pants down" and wipe out a whole battalion (https://www.newsweek.com/arestovich-ukraine-russia-zelensky-1712575). BIG WIN!
Let me know if this sounds familiar:
QuoteUkrainian troops capitalized on tactical errors made by Russian forces who were trying to advance near the village of Inhulets by the river of the same name.
He said that Russian forces were about to attack using air defense, tanks and other equipment but coordination from Moscow's military command was conducted "very poorly."
QuoteArestovych said that Ukrainian forces organized three crossings of the river and created a bridgehead from where they targeted Russian forces, who lost dozens of pieces of equipment and at least a hundred troops.
3 successful river crossings, that's just adding insult to injury!
Russian propagandist shows off Russian flamethrower, runs for his life from Ukrainian return fire (https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1532695309943463939)
And keep running. Run all the way back to Moscow.
Not-so-mysterious fire in Russia: office of Putin's personal army burned down by resistance member with gasoline (https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1532746871608852480)
"Hope does not glimmer, it burns"
"Butcher of Syria" couldnt cut it: General Dvornikov no longer in command (https://news.yahoo.com/general-dvornikov-no-longer-command-155200379.html)
No public appearances for the past two weeks.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 03, 2022, 08:00:40 AM3 successful river crossings, that's just adding insult to injury!
Oh, they're just showing off now.
Russian unit almost totally destroyed (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3499664-ukraine-forces-wipe-out-almost-entire-35th-allrussian-army-in-izium-yermak.html) (combat ineffective from here on out)
QuoteThe Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed almost the entire 35th Combined-Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Izium, Kharkiv region
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/35th_Combined_Arms_Army
It's difficult to figure out the exact casualties, but from what I call figure out, they were down to less than 100 soldiers per brigade and afaik, a russian brigade is supposed to have 2000+ soldiers.
Regardless of the exact figures, it's clear that there's been been a significant loss of manpower in this unit and it speaks to the fierceness of Ukrainian defense forces.
Jeez, the latest Institue of War update (https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3) reads like a post-apocalyptic journal:
QuoteA Russian milblogger published a lengthy message on June 3 claiming that nearly the entire 35th Combined Arms Army has been destroyed in Izyum due to incompetent Russian commanders.
QuoteRussian forces also reportedly lacked effective communication with command centers and relied on messengers due to the shortage of encrypted phones. Boytsovyi Kot Murz noted that the lack of communications between Russian units and commanders allowed Ukrainian forces to strike Russian advanced positions with drones. Russian private military company servicemen from Wagner also refused to participate in combat, leading to a significant lack of advances on the Izyum axis.
QuoteRussian and proxy forces reportedly have not sufficiently prepared frontline units with medical supplies, leading to abysmal medical care.
QuoteRussian commanders reportedly failed to learn lessons from the lack of medical equipment during the Battle of Debaltseve in 2015 and are repeating similar mistakes. Boytsovyi Kot Murz claimed that Russian forces do not provide frontline troops with high pressure bandages and other supplies necessary to address limb injuries in time.
QuoteThese claims are consistent with past reports of poor Russian medical care in frontline units, and these conditions are likely a major contributing factor to Russian demoralization and the growing refusal of servicemen to return to frontline units.
Russia is throwing everything it has at Siverodonetsk...and is getting pushed back (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-not-realistic-for-russian-forces-to-capture-severodonetsk-in-next-two-weeks-after-ukrainian-forces-recapture-chunk-of-city-governor-claims-12627517).
Shamefully incompetent.
Desperate russian forces turn to forced mobilization (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-turns-forced-mobilization-troop-morale-declines-report-1712637)...with underwhelming results.
QuoteRussia's decision to force individuals into service is "highly unlikely to generate meaningful combat power and will exacerbate low morale and poor discipline in Russian and proxy units."
QuoteThe ISW also reported that a military regiment of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) posted a video on Thursday in which "forcibly mobilized" soldiers complained to Putin about how they have spent the war on the front line in the Kherson region without proper food or medicine.
QuoteUkraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence had released an intercepted phone conversation that allegedly revealed DNR soldiers complaining about "physically unfit individuals" among their ranks. It also reported that DNR soldiers said mobilized units had been experiencing "mass drunkenness and general disorder."
So low-quality that it might actually be more of a burden than asset. But Russian command recycles strats regardless.
Copium gas poisoning advisory:
(https://i.redd.it/i8mj1k180h391.jpg)
Symptoms include:
* Delusional thoughts
* Disordered speech patterns
* Unusally high levels of grammar/spelling mistakes
How many Russians will believe that last one?
Russia loses at least 1k troops in Sievierodonetsk, possibly 2k losses (https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaUkrainians/status/1533121784114991104?t=UsH-PqmokuKc-2H90zXuOg&s=09)
Catching some Zs, smores edition:
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have recaptured Sievierodonetsk.
Russia put their all in capturing that, going on the defensive basically everywhere else. This isn't looking like it's going to be a victory for Russia. Not even a pyrrhic victory. This very well might be a defeat.
Mysterious fire in Russia engulfs regional parliament building (https://www.newsweek.com/fire-russia-tyumen-siberia-putin-ukraine-zelensky-1712802)
Spain to send Leopard tanks and anti-aircraft missiles (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1533330750917038082)
I haven't posted a lot of "Country Y donates X" news lately but this one caught my attention because until now, Spain hasn't sent heavy equipment to Ukraine afaik. And now they're sending their modernized main battle tank (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2E).
It highlights widespread goodwill towards Ukraine and material commitments all over Europe to safeguard this country from Russian aggression.
Institute of War assessment, June 4th (https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-4)
QuoteHaidai noted that Russian forces wrongfully believe in their own successes, enabling Ukrainian defenders to inflict high losses against unsuspecting Chechen units.
And the Russians could try another opposed river crossing, and you know how those go...
QuoteThe Russian military has concentrated all of its available resources on this single battle to make only modest gains.
QuoteThe Ukrainian government and military are furthermore discussing the battle of Severodonetsk in increasingly confident terms and are likely successfully blunting the Russian military's major commitment of reserves to the grinding battle for the city.
Love it.
(https://i.redd.it/us1302doct391.jpg)
The brand new *scoffs* t-62s are adopting a familiar tactic - cope cages (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1533395157671870466).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUe2oqoXEAIGLGP?format=png&name=900x900)
But unlike sheet metal or wooden logs or BBQ grills (three guesses on what gets barbequed), they're going for what appear to be wooden gazebos on top. An excellent defense against the rangers of Gondor and possibly even Legolas. *supressed laughter*
Recommended by two out of three little pigs. *unsuccessfully supressed laughter*
In seriousness, cope cages are a horrible idea (https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/interview_with_russian_tank_operator_how_barbecue_grills_turned_tanks_into_iron_coffins_without_communication_and_what_tankmen_are_afraid_of-3060.html) as explained by a russian soldier who put one on and later removed it.
Another Russian general killed in Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/5/7350717/)
That's thirteen.
(https://preview.redd.it/0jjcc8f8tk391.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=98424094a6b6257da129f0c1dfcc063180b8b246)
Literal translation: between the hammer and the anvil
On Russian state tv, they use a psychic to "work on Zelensky's vibrational frequency", which is apparently similar to Biden's lol.
This is the Russian equivalent of a televangelist "casting out" covid.
Russian combat power reportedly on the decline (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-combat-power-decline-ukraine-counterattack-suggests-report-1712979)
Losses have forced Russia to send "degraded" units to areas of fierce fighting.
Wormtongue Lavrov's trip to Serbia cancelled due to neighboring countries closing their airspace to Russia (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-slams-move-sergei-lavrov-cancel-serbia-trip-1713048)
Quote"Our diplomacy has yet to master teleportation," a senior foreign ministry source told Russia's state-run Interfax news agency.
I have an excellent idea for an end to this war invasion of choice. Two easy parts:
1) Russia. Get your ass out of Ukraine. It's called 'Ukraine', not Russia.
2) Negotiations can begin.
Sadly, Russia's not going to leave until they get soundly beaten and lose the territory they've gained.
Their current plan is to consolidate their holdings and trigger a food crisis on top of the existing energy crisis, hoping that it generates enough political pressure on Kyiv to halt the war and/or reverse sanctions.
That buys the Kremlin enough time to fully replenish their troops and then resume hostilities until they get what they want - the eradication of Ukraine and a New Russia with more oil and more wheat and freshwater ports.
Occupiers abandon checkpoints in Melitopol (https://news.yahoo.com/russian-occupiers-abandon-most-checkpoints-180100681.html)
This is deep in occupied territory. Very strange and uncharacteristic behavior.
Mysterious fires in Russia compilation (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-fires-mystery-ukraine-conflict/31884503.html)
Ukrainian forces destroy "elite" Russian unit (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-an-elite-russian-unit-in-eastern-ukraine-after-a-grueling-14-hour-battle/ar-AAYcNmd?ocid=EMMX&cvid=8e6fde33461740eeac7f75ac8de35476)
The battle lasted for 14 hours before the Ukrainians inflicted heavy casualties and forced a retreat.
QuoteThe Ukrainians went on to say that their Lviv-garrisoned paratroopers gave the Russians a "warm welcome" during the fight, after which the Russian brigade was beaten back in retreat, "leaving in their path through the forest a trail of the bodies of their dead."
"The coordinated actions of the artillery units of the 80th brigade, in the end, inflicted a mass artillery strike on the enemy," the post continued.
The russian unit was based in Pskov and considered elite, so there's a good chance it was the 76th Guards Air Assault Division (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/76th_Guards_Air_Assault_Division) (won't do much assaulting anymore)
In certainly related news, Ukraine estimates that an invader dies every 5 minutes in Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/8/7351175/). That's 288 per day, which tracks with Ukraine's 50-100/day losses, which are high as well but much less than Russian losses. Somewhere around a 1:3 or 1:4 ratio sounds plausible, based on reports. Expect that ratio to change as increasingly sophisticated western arms pour into Ukraine.
In an unencrypted call (god I love these), a Russian soldier recounts brutal Ukrainian ambushes, complains of comparitively inaccurate artillery, and most importantly:
lack of replenishment. Music to my ears.
Keep the intel coming!
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 08, 2022, 10:41:10 AMIn an unencrypted call (god I love these), a Russian soldier recounts brutal Ukrainian ambushes, complains of comparitively inaccurate artillery, and most importantly: lack of replenishment. Music to my ears.
Keep the intel coming!
I just don't understand how many times you need to be punched in the face to get it through your skull that you aren't welcome there.
I guess as many times as it takes, but it should not take this many... then again, we spent how many decades in Korea, Vietnam, the Middle East and elsewhere and didn't learn?
At least the Russians might have bit off more than they can chew.
Putin doesn't have an accurate picture and never did. Dictactors rarely receive bad news.
According to one of my favorite books, Why Nations Go To War, one of the top reasons for greenlighting a war (and subsequently losing said war) is inaccurate assumptions.
E.g. Thinking that the enemy is weaker than they are, thinking that your forces are stronger than they are, thinking the international community will let it slide like last time, etc. Knowing your capabilities and your opponent's capabilities is at least as important as the presence of a McDonald's.
I think even Putin at this point understands this has gone south. He keeps threatening to make things worse. His 'Don't make me do it' is growing stale.
Is the man vile and juvenile enough to resort to 'if I can't have it you can't either'? Go away, you petty little shit.
He knows it's not going exactly to plan - hence the shift east - but he still thinks this is winnable.
His all-out assault on Severodonetsk is evidence of that, as well as an attempt to project strength that doesn't exist in reality. News outlets unintentionally aid this - "Severoodonetsk under intense bombardment" "Russia takes more territory in the east!" - it paints the picture of an unstoppable advance, emboldening Z-cultists and potentially disheartening Allies and causing them causing to rethink weapons shipments (if this war drags on and on, the drain on our own resources will be unacceptable, so we should cut off aid now)
The grain move was particularly devious and cruel - sowing discord and finger-pointing among Allies, putting intense pressure on Ukraine to end the war now for civilians' sake (allowing Putin to restart it from a position of strength), and overall causing hardships on the world (if I can't have what I want, I'll flip the table).
Of course, the grain doesn't necessarily have to be delivered from Ukrainian ports. It could take a land route through Belarus. Maybe you could cut some sort of deal with Lukashenko...
Lukashenko is probably sufficiently malleable to such a thing. Right side of history and all that.
Russia: We really really want to get the grain out to all those poor starving people. Truly. But first, there's just one tiny incy wincy thing we need you to do: demine your ports (https://www.reuters.com/world/after-russia-meeting-turkey-says-ukraine-grain-export-plan-reasonable-2022-06-08/)
We definitely won't take advantage of your lowered defenses. Promise! There's no landing force (https://m.jpost.com/international/article-708516) or anything just waiting for an opportunity to strike.
Russian advance on Izium stalls (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3503045-russias-progress-near-izium-stalled-after-ukraine-armys-successful-maneuvers-uk-ministry-of-defence.html)
Russia tried to reconstitute its units after heavy casualties, but was unable to fully replenish
I'm sensing a theme...
In retailiation for sanctions and closed airspace, Russia stole foreign jets in its territory. Real classy.
Well, it can't get adequate parts to maintain these jets due to sanctions. So it's turning to bootleg parts, rendering this stolen air fleet useless. (https://www.thedrive.com/news/russias-stolen-planes-will-soon-become-worthless-thanks-to-bootleg-parts) It's like dumping $10 billion right down the drain.
Multiple mysterious fires in Russia at military-industrial buildings (https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1534590214039031809). Interesting...
Russian radio station hacked, plays the Ukrainian national anthem (https://newsable.asianetnews.com/world/russian-radio-station-hacked-starts-playing-ukrainian-military-anthem-and-anti-war-songs-snt-rd7nf5)
Seeds are blooming in Ukraine:
(https://preview.redd.it/6ckexr1m2l491.jpg?width=1043&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd0f35d34a857cde0a39b6f3e1359c882a1dc8a2)
(https://preview.redd.it/quhpbt3m2l491.jpg?width=1033&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b76e6b7df399924a1c4d2fb5f751d50912069ce4)
Resistance blows up cafe in Kherson frequented by invaders (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F06%2F08%2Fukraine-resistance-targets-russian-leaders-first-terror-attack%2F)
QuoteThe attack comes as the nascent resistance movement has been putting up "wanted" posters threatening local leaders of the Russian puppet regime. The posters are part of a wider counter-propaganda push, painting Russian occupiers as murderers.
The movement represents a major headache for stretched Russian resources attempting to implement permanent control over new territory, and could spell the beginning of a long underground campaign against occupiers.
There's an article that indicates that Ukraine may be slowly winning the artillery duel in Severodonetsk.
But it talks a little too in-detail about Ukrainian positions/composition, so I will not be linking it. Knowledge is power, guard it well.
Russians store their dead at a meatpacking plant, run out of space (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-many-russians-were-072301421.html)
Russians blow themselves up trying to plant antique mines (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russians_blow_themselves_up_trying_to_thwart_ukraines_offensive_with_70_year_old_mines_ukraines_intelligence-3231.html)
QuoteHowever, the russian military responsible for this misappropriated the allocated funds, and instead of recycling sent a dangerous ammo to the front.
Misappropriated funds, aka corruption.
I suppose now is as good time as any for today's feature film:
Russia's military is estimated to have around 20% corruption (i.e. funds diverted from its stated purpose to other areas, usually bribes or personal enrichment).
Big deal, right? An 80% effective army is still pretty powerful. But because the higher ups don't know what they don't have and because selling off $50,000 worth of parts effectively renders a multi-million dollar tank worthless, corruption does disproportionate damage to a military. For example, selling fuel just prior to the war (https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-troops-belarus-exercises-ukraine/31711282.html) and then running out of fuel and then losing the battle for Kyiv.
If Russia wasn't quite so corrupt, Kyiv would be speaking Russian right now.
Kherson partisans blow up Russian colonel with 3 other invaders (https://m-glavcom-ua.translate.goog/country/incidents/partizani-na-hersonshchini-minusuvali-polkovnika-rf-852168.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
They also apparently blew up an installation that was going to be used to shell a town.
Also, two more generals KIA. Big news, probably should have led with that.
That's 15 so far. Russia started the invasion with around 20. Five more and Zelensky gets to face off against Dr Wiley.
More about the newly dead generals: Scouts behind enemy lines paint Russian bases for devastating artillery barrages (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war.html)
QuoteThis week, partisan scouts working for Ukraine's military behind enemy lines directed artillery attacks on two Russian bases in the occupied Kherson region that killed scores of enemy soldiers, according to a senior Ukrainian military official with knowledge of the attacks.
QuoteThe scouts are local partisans who aid the Ukrainian military on Russian-occupied territory. They might be former soldiers or simply civilians gathering information like the location of enemy units. They can be men pushing potato carts, or farmers, or a grandmother with a cellphone.
I love how they phrase it. Pure paranoia fuel. You are not safe. Be afraid of everyone and everything. Lose the will to fight. Run for your life back to Russia.
Ukrainians at battle of Severodonetsk don't seek to control the city, but to inflict maximimum casualties (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/9/2103074/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-s-strategy-in-Severodonetsk-coming-into-clearer-view)
The city is strategically worthless, but apparently half (!) of all Russians in Ukraine are there. So it's worthwhile to be there just to bombard as many as possible while they're exposed and bunched up.
Dear Dictactor: Russia prepares to go full North Korea (https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-cronies-say-putin-is-ready-to-go-full-kim-jong-un)
^ Well, now. That's depressing. Maybe China can step on Putin's dick?
Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the Kherson region. If the latest round of counterattacks is successful, they'll be right on the doorstep of Kherson, the first major city taken by the Russians.
Meanwhile, the invaders have started to distribute russian passports in Kherson and Melitopol (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61770997).
Partisans in both cities have initiated attacks on occupiers. And the russian general who planned to hold a fake referendum in Kherson by autimn died instead. 🌻 Both cities are taken but not defeated, so to speak.
So here's the dog guy. Or perhaps it was a different guy. It mutt-ers not.
He seems strangely enthusiastic about sharing. Usually I save the guessing game stuff for neat rocks or exotic wildlife, not his...*ahem* hungryman dinner.
Also, literally starving and throwing away "food" - no matter how low-quality - seems kinda irrational. But fighting fellow slavs for Putin and bankrupting the Motherland in the process seems kinda irrational, too.
Ukraine blows up Chechen invader command post (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3505164-chechen-command-post-in-rubizhne-destroyed-in-ukraine-army-attack.html)
QuoteAs for our special forces and gunners, we have three such examples of their coordinated work. They engaged a Wagner PMC base in Stakhaniv. Only one survivor there. A Chechen command post was destroyed in Rubizhne where the enemy death toll is yet to be clarified. Also, a group of Russian soldiers, holding a meeting at the House of Chemists, was eliminated," said the head of Luhansk region.
Another mysterious fire broke out in Russia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/military-base-on-fire-in-bryansk-region-russia/) - this one in the Bryansk region just north of Ukraine.
Coincidentally, it happened at a repair field where Russian military equipment was being repaired following damage in Ukraine.
Fire destroyed at least 8 vehicles (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1535604370913501184), including armored vehicles and logistics vehicles.
There's more reistance than I thought. Kherson farmers kill two occupiers (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1535938883162198017?s=20&t=vPvsHT3fxdgZ4iW8tzvezg)
They'll either drag your tank or your coffin.
Anonymous hacks Russian drone company, obtains russian drone tactics/plans (https://www.ibtimes.com/anonymous-hits-russia-devastating-drone-hack-could-speed-end-war-3536482)
QuoteThe operative, who previously took down the official website of the Belarus Ministry of Internal Affairs, did not mince words when asked for a message: "Dictator Putin. For the war crimes, you have committed, the innocent people you have killed and the dozens of people you have destroyed, we will not let you alone," Youranonspider said. "We will expose you and the war crimes you have committed. We will share the crimes of your corrupt government," they added.
"We are in the palace where you hide in your house. we are in the streets, on the cameras of lawless government buildings, on the cell phone of the man you trust the most," they said. "We are in the electronic car navigation system. We are Anonymous. We are Legion. We don't forgive. We do not forget. Expect us," the operative said.
The enemy of my enemy isn't necessarily my friend, in this case. This is chilling, since they can do it to any country.
Ukraine to receive 110 Sky Wiper anti-drone personal weapons from Lithuania (https://gagadget.com/en/137600-lithuanian-journalist-will-give-ukraine-110-edm4s-sky-wiper-guns-to-eliminate-drones-they-were-called-orc-killers/)
Afaik, they've been using this before, so this isn't that huge a deal, but getting them in more hands means that Russian drones are more likely to be shot down (especially if you already know where they're likely to be), denying Russia crucial intel.
Ukraine establishes two land routes for grain - one through Poland and one through Romania - to prevent global food crisis (https://english.nv.ua/business/ukraine-has-alternative-grain-export-routes-ukraine-food-crisis-news-50249430.html)
They're not as good as the sea routes, but obviously those cannot be used.
Ukrainian forces advance closer to Kherson (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-comes-closer-to-occupied-kherson-russia-invades-ukraine-50249763.html)
QuoteWhen it comes to shelling, unlike the enemy, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are so accurate that they actually hit enemy equipment and ammunition, says Hlan, and, in contrast to the Russian military, not random civilian structures.
In case it wasn't already clear what Russia's stance on nazism is, one of their top officials is a dyed-in-the-wool nazi and no one bats an eye (https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1536745576213118981)
Putin loses 53rd colonel in 100ish days. (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russian-commander-killed-in-ukraine-colonel-sergei-postnov-putin-moscow-kremlin-b1006220.html)
This one worked for the Ministry of Truth. So state media says that he's fine, he died accidentally in rough seas, and also that he was killed by NATO.
Captain Serhii Ponomarenko awarded Hero of Ukraine (https://mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1536959791062458370?s=20&t=6E2gcuh6G6OGo5UT8-PhdQ)
His unit of 6 tanks fought a battle against 20 Russian tanks. They destroyed 9 and disengaged with no losses.
No wonder russia is dusting off those T-62s, though it's highly unlikley that they'll accomplish what the T-80s and T-72s could not.
Periodic news about Russia reducing outputs of oil pipelines to Europe, which makes no sense to me. They're actively reducing euros going into their war machine right when they need it the most and dutifully helping anti-Putin activists lobbying their government to reduce/eliminate russian oil imports.
One theory I've heard is that it's so Europe cannot stockpile oil during the summer for the high-demand winter. Evidently, Russia is going to leverage oil to try to strong-arm Europe into reducing sanctions during the winter when Europe will be in its most dire need of it.
But winter is ~200 days away and the situation in Ukraine has changed dramatically in 100 days. Can Russia even support the war for that long?
Apparently Putin thinks so (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-says-itll-likely-years-040055079.html), because he put forward the questionable assertion that Europe will continue to buy Russian oil for several years, despite EU countries saying they'll slash Russian oil imports by 90% by the end of the year (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-hungary-european-union-d0d4144c84749f84676a2f41b03b2ad4).
Even if we take Putin's statement (which directly contradicts statements of much more credible leaders of other countries) as gospel, in several years, Europe stops buying Russian oil and Russia's economy tanks hard. What then?
In temporarily Russian-occupied Ukraine, there have been several more instances of defiance/resistance (https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukrainian-farmers-poison-russian-troops-with-spiked-cherries-as-guerrilla-war-terrifies-invaders):
* In Melitopol, farmers poisoned their cherries, so when Russian invaders stole them, there was "mass sickness"
* Also in Melitopol, residents ignored Russia Day, only 15 out of 70,000 Ukrainian citizens stood in line to receive Russian passports
* In Berdyansk, teachers are refusing to teach Russian curricula
* In Mariupol, "unidentified Ukrainian partisans" targetted staffers of Russia's Emergency Ministry. Outside that ministry's headquarters, several tractors and truck trailers went up in flanes. Talk about a warm welcome.
* Also in Mariuopol, a Russian Emergency Ministry member was fatally stabbed in the back while standing in a crowd. Those posters depicting Ukrainian partisans stabbing Russian occupiers from behind aren't far from the truth.
The EU announced that EU companies "will be blocked from insuring and financing the transport of Russian oil (https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/16/energy/russia-oil-ships-insurance/index.html) to third-party countries after a transitional period of six months."
Essentially, this further complicates and frustrates Russian efforts to recoup lost sales with Europe by doing business with China and India instead, albeit with steep discounts.
QuoteUninsured or underinsured vessels would not be allowed to enter any major port or pass through important shipping choke points such as the Bosporus or the Suez Canal,
Soon there will be no more Coca-Cola in Russia (https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/coke-bottler-coca-cola-hbc-depleting-stock-russia-2022-06-16/)
To understand just how huge this is, understand that as of 2019, there are only two countries where Coca-Cola is not sold - North Korea and Cuba (https://www.businessinsider.com/what-coca-cola-ads-look-like-around-the-world-2019-8). That's it.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 16, 2022, 09:13:12 PMSoon there will be no more Coca-Cola in Russia (https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/coke-bottler-coca-cola-hbc-depleting-stock-russia-2022-06-16/)
To understand just how huge this is, understand that as of 2019, there are only two countries where Coca-Cola is not sold - North Korea and Cuba (https://www.businessinsider.com/what-coca-cola-ads-look-like-around-the-world-2019-8). That's it.
Fuck Russia with a rusty Coke spoon.
Russian army takes massive losses in eastern Ukraine (https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/the-russian-army-is-taking-massive-losses-in-eastern-ukraine/)
QuoteOne of the major issues for the Russian military is a lack of experienced troops. The war has taken a toll on the professional core of the Russian forces.
"As claimed by the Ukrainian authorities, some Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) – typically established at around 600 to 800 personnel – have been able to muster as few as 30 soldiers.
30 soldiers is roughly equivalent to a US platoon. It's two size categories below a batallion.
So basically, calling 30 guys a batallion is like calling 2 guys a football team. I mean, technically, with some sort of miracle it's possible for them to score some points. But they definitely ain't gonna win.
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian ammo depot in Kherson region (https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-russian-ammunition-depot-nova-kakhovka/)
Russian tugboat downed in rough seas (https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1537693105553649665)
I know it's not as exciting as downing a Slava-class cruiser, but this boat was filled to the gills with weapons and ammo and every time Ukraine blows up another logistics vehicle/ship, it saves civilian lives and reduces the length of the war.
Plus, it tells other ships in the Black Sea to back off, which is always nice.
Gotta take pride in the little victories, too.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 17, 2022, 09:47:44 AMRussian tugboat downed in rough seas (https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1537693105553649665)
That may not have been a cruiser, but it was the biggest tug, I've ever seen. I would never have called it a tug boat myself. But there's several more millions of rubles down the drain.
Dictator Putin cruelly subjects the russian people to unhinged 73-minute long rant about the West and the US in particular (https://kyivindependent.com/national/putin-claims-western-sanctions-failed-says-us-fading-world-power) (QQ + die mad)
What a stable genius who totally has everything under control and doesn't at all drift from delusional imperialistic fantasties where he's some powerful tsar to bitter rage and tears at harsh reality filled with failure.
Ukrainian forces are within 10 km of Kherson and civilians have been ordered to evacuate the city. Suffice it to say that a push there is imminent.
Lithuania stops transit of sanctioned goods between Russia and Kaliningrad (https://english.nv.ua/business/lithuania-stops-transit-of-sanctioned-goods-between-russia-and-kaliningrad-50250744.html)
The ban affects roughly half of all goods being transported from Russia to Kallingrad through Lithuania.
The only alternatives are comparitively more difficult routes by sea or air (gotta watch that restricted airspace). Tough break for Vlad. Maybe next time, don't massacre civilians and kidnap kids!
Russia might be better off if they would just join the rest of the world, rather than try to own it.
And boom goes the dynamite: 2 invader ammo depots go boom in eastern Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3510120-ukrainian-forces-destroy-two-ammo-depots-almost-90-invaders-in-east.html)
7 invader ammo depots have gone boom in the past 3 days (https://wartranslated.com/day-115-june-18-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/)
QuoteIn last week, there is phenomenal increase in accuracy of Ukrainian artillery. Most warehouses and command centers are destroyed with 1st hit. Possibly better ammo, or better targeting. It's hard to measure and explain such increase
*wink wink*
Quotefor example 10 howitzers alone is nothing significant, but 10 howitzers with improved fire-control systems and artillery radars could be compared to 40 dumb Russian howitzers.
Heh. Dumbfire, in more ways than one.
It almost seems like Putin is counting on pulling a rabbit out of a hat. But then I think, if he actually had a rabbit, he would have used it by now. I don't have a great grasp of the big picture, but it seems like he's got three options. Withdraw, go nuclear, or find that rabbit. He shows no indication of stopping the invasion, and if he drags this out, what might he gain? Is there some kind of concession he might be looking for? Again, not having a grasp of the big picture, does the world need Russia at all? Does he have anything he could use to bargain with the rest of the world?
War seldom makes sense, and in this one, I can make no sense out of it at all, even when I reach for something ridiculous to make it seem logical.
He really honestly thinks that Western support is going to dry up and he just has to push a little harder and any second now, the Ukrainian battle lines will give way. Also that the energy and food crises will cause huge amounts of war weariness and we won't sacrifice our own economies for people we've never met and aren't major allies.
And that's partially true, Western support hasn't been quite as high as it could've been (but waaay more than Vlad initially expected), some shipments have been frustratingly delayed, and there is some level of dissention in our ranks, unfortunately. And Ukrainian forces have unfortunately been in some tough spots. High casualties, low ammo in some cases, and almost always outnumbered.
But if Vlad thinks the US and UK and Poland are dumping billions of dollars of equipment into Ukraine only to pull out when things get difficult, he has another thing coming. We're in it to win it.
And when it comes down to war production, the Allies have Russia beat. When it comes to attrition, Ukraine has Russia beat. Russia has already lost huge amounts of war materiel (tanks, artillery, precision bombs, elite troops, officers, etc). Hell, they're down to antique T-62s just three months into the conflict. The writing is on the wall. But lest we forget, Vlad can't read. His world is shaped by his advisors and they blow smoke up his ass. They tell him that victory is still within his grasp. And he tells himself that unless he delivers a win, he'll wind up dead in a year. And so the war drags on.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVr6RFvX0AEpai0?format=png&name=large)
(Obligatory: YouGov polls aren't the most reliable in the world, so take it with a pinch of salt)
But generally speaking, support for Ukraine has not dropped off in the West much at all. Strong majorities still support sanctions and sending aid to Ukraine and that number had barely changed. If anything, there's a growing pressure to escalate our involvement and not drag out this conflict.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 20, 2022, 10:18:57 AMHe really honestly thinks that Western support is going to dry up.....
If the EU drops the ball now and Ukraine goes away....Don't come a knocking over here when Vlad takes Poland and Hungary and Romania. Germany...talking to you...you do know you are probably the ultimate goal for payback, right?
Quote from: SGOS on June 20, 2022, 07:36:27 AMIt almost seems like Putin is counting on pulling a rabbit out of a hat. But then I think, if he actually had a rabbit, he would have used it by now. I don't have a great grasp of the big picture, but it seems like he's got three options. Withdraw, go nuclear, or find that rabbit. He shows no indication of stopping the invasion, and if he drags this out, what might he gain? Is there some kind of concession he might be looking for? Again, not having a grasp of the big picture, does the world need Russia at all? Does he have anything he could use to bargain with the rest of the world?
War seldom makes sense, and in this one, I can make no sense out of it at all, even when I reach for something ridiculous to make it seem logical.
Putin's pride is not going to let him stop short of anything less than control of additional territory in eastern Ukraine.
Logistical assistance alone to Ukraine is not going to stop the above from happening. The only thing short of Putin dying or a coup that sees him removed from power that can stop Russia from annexing additional parts of the Ukraine is going to be boots on the ground from NATO countries. Even this probably isn't going to work without taking the fight to Russia by attacking logistical supply lines/hubs in Russia and Belarus. That opens the door to Russia attacking other countries. i.e. WWIII.
Short of military intervention, Ukraine's best option to keep their territory is going to be to make it to expensive for Russia to hold on to it over the long term through insurgent operations. This is going to take years and a lot more people are going to die.
As far as the rest of the world needing Russia goes the answer is yes. Even though Russia is relatively poor by western standards it is the largest country on the planet. They have a significant share of the world's resources. A share that dwarfs their current GDP numbers. The rest of the world needs access to these resources. Over the long term climate change is also likely to open up large swaths of Russia that are currently sparsely inhabited to larger populations. People migrating from other places such as China and India are going to need someplace to go as those countries are negatively impacted by climate change.
Ukrainian Air Force destroys russian stronghold (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/20/7353503/), eliminates equipment and soldiers there
A russian senator (a pointless position in a dictatorship) claims that Lithuania not allowing the transport of proscribed goods from Russia to Kallingrad is a casus belli (justification for war)
Countries get to decide what goods cross their own borders, though. So Russia can sit and spin.
Remember the time they said sending arms shipments to Ukraine was also an act of war and did absolutely nothing?
Also, they're a NATO country so unless Putin wants NATO jets over Moscow, all he has is impotent rage.
Two invaders shot dead at Kherson cafe (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1538841198818910213?t=d_3zdji7ZkSMCvBHoH_jbw&s=09)
I hear the drink selection is good, but all they have to eat is lead.
In the south, Ukrainian forces destroy a communications station, a radar, an electronic warfare station, and three ammo depots (https://vigilantnews.net/en/2022/06/21/ukraine-army-eliminates-25-invaders-communications-station-three-ammo-depots-in-country-s-south/)
They're definitely getting softened up and deprived of resources before the big push.
Crazy dictator mouthpiece says that Moscow-caused famine is sure to cause West to drop sanctions and be friends with Russia again (https://crooksandliars.com/2022/06/putin-mouthpiece-claims-west-sanctions?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_content=61469)
Quote"Now the famine will start and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us because they will realize that it is impossible not to be friends with us"
Crazy ex logic.
Snake Island struck. Again. Garrison suffers significant losses. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3511913-ukraine-army-strikes-snake-island-russians-suffer-significant-losses.html)
Russia's favorite tourist attraction and final destination.
Poster in Kherson:
(https://i.redd.it/dtma3i2zmy691.jpg)
Poster in Melitopol:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVyMAlHXEAEOHi2?format=jpg&name=large)
"Syrians, we will cut you down like dogs" (Putin convinced a few hundred Syrians to join the war as mercenaries)
Putin loses 55th Colonel (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-loses-55th-colonel-27277914) 🌻
His helicopter was hit by a missile.
Russian Nobel Peace prize winner sells it to raise $103.5 million for Ukrainian children (https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-nobel-peace-laureate-muratov-sells-medal-104-mln-aid-ukraine-children-2022-06-21/)
(https://media-exp2.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E12AQGr8tjHiK1FTw/article-cover_image-shrink_600_2000/0/1634081361707?e=1661385600&v=beta&t=xy_GyjJDF6emkmeMddBBIhnq5EitHb6J15m_W0aTGXk)
Operation Bulldog is a go! MAJOR operation lauched on the southern front. (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/21/7353843/)
Government of Ukraine requests operational silence during this critical time.
(https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/7ZIAAOSwK-Fghdd9/s-l400.jpg)
You will hear no further updates from me about the southern front except for whatever the Ukrainian government deems fit to tell the world.
++ INFORMATION IS AMMUNITION ++
I served in the US Navy during the time that the Walkers sold intelligence to foreign adversaries. While I wasn't directly affected, many of our military lost their lives because of it.
^ Fuck off and die.
He really went a spammin'
Where is the emoji with the villagers carrying torches!?
A goat seriously injured several invaders (https://www.ibtimes.com/goat-injures-russian-soldiers-triggering-tripwires-grenades-3546435) by wandering into a grenade tripwire and setting off a chain reaction
It's unclear if the goat survived the incident.
The GOAT goat.
Quote from: Sorginak on June 21, 2022, 10:00:22 PMHe really went a spammin'
He didn't seem to be able to follow the topic of conversation.
Dare you to try (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/state-department-russia-lithuania-nato)
I'm in your base:
Loitering drone crashes into oil refinery in Russia (https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1539514526428803072), explodes and causes a fire (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/22/russian-novoshakhtinsk-oil-refinery-struck-drone-possible-attack-inside-borders)
Russian armored transport destroyed on Russian soil, border guards killed (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1539596174243528705)
Mounting signs that Russia is purging its generals in Ukraine (https://www.businessinsider.com/mounting-signs-the-kremlin-is-purging-top-generals-in-ukraine-experts-2022-6?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds) (the ones who still live)
This tells us two things:
1) Russia is losing this conflict. You don't sack winners.
2) Russian leadership will likely continue to be poor or possibly even deteriorate further as experienced generals are scapegoated and replaced with fresh faces more skilled at blame-shifting than actually running a war. (Leadership is also deteriorating due to battlefield losses)
Dysfunction at the top begets dysfunction at the bottom.
Not quite the normal topic here, but something a little more light-hearted while still showing whats going on in Ukraine; a Ukrainian youtuber, forced to flee to Germany, just moved back to Ukraine and is trying to do humor while reacting to Ukrainian war memes.
A weird lens into a depressing, unwarrantedly-made weird life.
HIMARS (long-range missile artillery) now in Ukraine (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-celebrates-us-long-range-rocket-systems-arriving-after-months-of-asking-summer-will-be-hot-for-russian-occupiers/ar-AAYM9VI?li=BBnb7Kz)
Quote"Summer will be hot for Russian occupiers. And the last one for some of them," he said.
UK announces new round of sanctions (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-23-22/h_879c7d12c5fa479fd0422c9fc8423782), including oil refining goods and technology, jet fuel and additives, and the export of british sterling or euros to Russia
EU overwhelmingly approves EU candidacy for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia (https://au.news.yahoo.com/european-parliament-overwhelmingly-approves-eu-102231942.html?soc_src=community&soc_trk=tw)
QuoteVolodymyr Zelensky, who applied for membership at the start of the war, said: "This is like going into the light from the darkness."
Nike is finally leaving Russia entirely after suspending business back in March
Copium overdose: Russia says Ukraine must accept all its demands before peace (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-peskov-kremlin-war-end-terms-peace-1718445)
Putin's crony didn't state what these demands are, simply saying that Ukraine already knows what they are.
This is why Ukraine needs a big military win and therefore enough international aid to make that happen. Putin still thinks he can dictate terms. Until his armies are shattered, there can be no peace.
In news that will surprise no one, NATO to increase the size of its army (https://www.newsweek.com/nato-massively-expand-army-bid-deter-further-putin-aggression-ukraine-defense-1718435), specifically in eastern and southeastern europe - areas near Russia.
Previously, NATO has relied on a "tripwire" approach where a small number of soldiers serve as a deterrent and alerts all other forces when things are amiss.
For obvious reasons, this approach is insufficient. Especially if say, Russia/Belarus were to invade towards Kallingrad, rapidly encircling the Baltic states. Estonia in particular is leery about that (https://www.ft.com/content/a430b191-39c8-4b03-b3fd-8e7e948a5284) and understandably isn't keen on waiting 180 days for NATO to come to the rescue. Russia's demonstrated penchant for genocide makes a slow response particularly disagreeable.
Instead, NATO forces in the area will be expected to bear the brunt of any invasion and to beat the enemy back or at least substantially delay them before reinforcements arrive.
US is considering training Ukrainian fighter pilots on F-15s and F-16s (https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540012718224293890)
Russian military cargo plane crashes in Russia, killing 4 nazis (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cargo-plane-crash-lands-near-russias-ryazan-seven-injured-ifax-2022-06-24/)
Russian pilots fly so low in Ukraine that they crash themselves into the ground (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/06/24/russian-jets-are-flying-so-low-to-dodge-ukrainian-air-defenses-that-theyre-running-into-the-ground/?sh=1abf184ea251)
Russian air defense reportedly struck a nazi position (https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1540214406549749766) (it bombed itself in its confusion)
Russia lacks pilots due to heavy losses (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3513976-russian-army-lacks-pilots-amid-heavy-losses-british-intel.html)
Ukrainian air force blows up invader ammo depot (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3513927-ukrainian-air-forces-strike-enemy-ammunition-depot-armored-fighting-vehicles.html), up to 30 armored vehicles, and a vehicle repair depot
Cisco to leave Russia and Belarus (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/23/cisco-announces-wind-down-of-operations-in-russia-belarus-a78088) They had previously suspended operations on March 3rd, now they're completely leaving.
Russia has already had network problems. (https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/technology/russia-facing-internet-outages-due-to-equipment-shortage/) Expect to hear about major service outages later on this year.
Kallingrad business owner complains about sanctions (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61902322) and how rough he has it.
I hear ya, man. Things are pretty rough for Ukrainian civilians, too - massacred, homes destroyed, or trying to survive in occupied territory. And let's not forget the hundreds of thousands of people Putin will starve with this deliberate grain disruption. But sure, let's hear about the woes of a concrete business.
Quote"We aren't making anything, so builders can't build anything. There's a chain reaction. We have nothing to pay contractors, taxes or wages."
No tax revenue?! Awful. Just awful. One quick question: to whom is this tax money owed and how will they spend it? Ok, maybe not so awful after all.
Quote"I hope we can reach an agreement with the Lithuanians on transit, because they're not bad people," Svetlana tells me.
"They're not evil! The Poles aren't bad, either. We don't share a border with Russia, but with Poland and Lithuania. They're like family to us. We need to restore relations."
Yeah, it's important to be on good terms with one's neighbors, isn't it?
Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he's peace-loving and against Putin. Wars have far-reaching consequences. In fact, they primarily affect the blameless. His is one such example among a great many. I hope he realizes that it's not the Lithuanians who did this to him, it was ultimately Putin's war of aggression that hurt his business. If Putin had kept his tanks on his side of the border, Kallingrad would not be under sanctions and his concrete business would be operating normally.
Ukrainian forces are pulling out of Severodonetsk.
Not the best sounding headline in the world, but a necessary move. A largely obliterated town with no strategic value. Its only value was luring Russian troops to a place where they could be bombarded. An extremely costly and mostly hollow "victory" for Putin.
And since Putin put almost everything he had in taking it - it's amazing that the Ukrainians held out as long as they did while heavily outnumbered - russian advances on the eastern front have lost a lot of steam.
Hopefully, as Ukrainian forces transition to western equipment, retaking it will be much, much easier than defending it.
As the Institute for the study of war puts it (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24):
QuoteAn unnamed Pentagon official noted that Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk will allow Ukrainian troops to secure better defensive positions and further wear down Russian manpower and equipment.[3] The Pentagon official noted that Russian forces pushing on Severodonetsk already show signs of "wear and tear" and "debilitating morale," which will only further slow Russian offensive operations in Donbas.
QuoteRussian forces have been attempting to seize Severodonetsk since at least March 13, exhausting their forces and equipment over three months.[4]
Ukrainian forces will likely maintain their defenses around Lysychansk and continue to exhaust Russian troops after the fall of Severodonetsk.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/vk7rh7/russian_surfacetoair_missile_does_a_uturn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Yep. An absolutely amazing example of self-destruction. I wish that all their launches went so terribly awry.
There has also been footage of missiles that didn't quite take off and ones that didn't explode on impact, like that one that famously lodged itself in someone's kitchen (apparently, the stove was a high-value strategic target)
All in all, about a 60% failure rate (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/). Unfortunately, they seem to be deliberately targetting urban centers to sow terror and civilian deaths, where precision is not important.
60 %?! Oh, glad to hear that. Thanks for saying something good. Hard to come by these days. Everything's so fucked up everywhere... I admit, I've watched it a dozen times.
Periodically, Russia claims that it has destroyed a western arms shipment, or captured western equipment in Ukraine, or killed some NATO forces operating in Ukraine (a particularly difficult task since there are no NATO forces in Ukraine)
I've waited with baited breath for evidence, yet none is ever forthcoming.
Such claims are falsehoods (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/france-denies-russian-reports-captured-083000229.html) concocted mainly to buoy flagging Russian morale by implying that western arms are not bolstering Ukrainian forces (the opposite is true) and to sow division among Allies by implying that arms shipments are not having much of an effect (the opposite is true).
Every now and then, some particularly credulous or russian-aligned western politician or shoddy news network falls for it and repeats dubious/deceitful claims ultimately coming from the Kremlin. Either way, it highlights the wisdom of putting more trust in those with credibility than those without it.
Here's a strange story (https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/ex-mp-turned-collaborator-found-to-store-over-6000-unique-artifacts-from-crimea-worth-millions-of-dollars)
QuoteEx-Ukranian MP bought millions of dollars worth of historical artifacts stolen from Crimea, then fled to Russia on the eve of the invasion.
In addition, Horbatov is directly involved in the activities of the Horlivka Paper Mill and the Charitable Union (BS) LLC, which operate in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, pay taxes there and, in fact, finance illegal armed terrorist groups.
SBI Director Oleksiy Sukhachov said that the agency's investigators had gathered irrefutable evidence of Horbatov's involvement in financing actions aimed at overthrowing the constitutional order in Ukraine, changing its borders or state border, and justifying aggression against Ukraine.
Suffice it to say that his interests extend far beyond old clay pots.
The obvious question: why didn't he bring his treasure trove with him? More than likely, he couldn't move it in time, so he hid it and fully expected to return to it at war's end, which he likely thought wouldn't take very long. Quite the miscalculation.
Catching some Zs: reportedly, HIMARS first target (https://mobile.twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1540796059672363008) 🌻
Official UA source (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3515150-himars-in-action-enemy-command-posts-destroyed-in-donbas-media.html)
QuoteOn June 24, the Ukrainians destroyed a command post of the 20th Army of the Russian Armed Forces' Western Military District (unit 89425, originally based in Voronezh), located in a school building. As a result of the strike, a significant number of Russian officers with the army headquarters were hit, while much of the enemy equipment parked at the site was damaged.
Ukrainian forces also hit 6 invader MRLS
One got brewed up so badly that missiles fired themselves off in random directions. There's not going to be any salvage from that one.
Russian cruise missiles strike Kyiv (https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-war-kyiv-expolosions-syevyerodonetsk-belarus/31915504.html), hitting a residential building and a kindergarten playground.
Among the seriously wounded is a russian citizen and her daughter
They also shelled to death a 13-year-old riding her bike. :(
Edit: Russian hot takes (https://www.reddit.com/gallery/vl3huq) on the situation are every bit as bloodthirsty while simultaneously cowardly as everyone has come to expect from them. Dictator-loving Z-zombies abandoned their humanity long ago.
Russia has increased its military presence in Belarus and launched an increasing number of attacks from Belarus, likely both as an attempt to draw Belarus into Putin's war of aggression and as a cowardly sort of protection, since Ukrainian forces cannot retaliate without attacking Belarus and giving it cause to go to war.
Russia has also threatened to attack Lithuania and threatened to deploy nukes in Belarus.
The wolf bites back: Ukraine strikes ammo depots deep in temporarily occupied territory (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/27/ukraine-starts-hitting-ammunition-depots-deep-in-russias-rear/)
Due to Ukraine's relative scarcity of soviet rockets, Ukraine has had to use them sparingly. So some juicy targets have unfortunately been neglected. Donated HIMARS changes that.
And Ukraine is making good use of them by striking Russia's weakspot - logistics and C&C - ammo depots and command posts respectively. Without copious munitions, Russia's indiscriminate bombing campaign is significantly lessened. And without officers to spur on troops, orcs simply hold their current position indefinitely.
In short, HIMARS are slowing down Russia's offensive, eventually stalling it and allowing Ukraine to go on the offensive.
Russia finally defaults (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/27/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1917-revolution-reports)
Sanctions have made an impact, but Russia is by no means destitute. Russia still sells plenty of oil and natural gas to the West and others. But its military still relies on some western components, despite attempts to DIY replacements, and losing access to that has crippled production of advanced weapon systems. Also, its civilian service economy has been heavily disrupted, and while Russia has tried to rely on non-western replacements, you can't just DIY semiconductors, so things are not progressing well for Russia in that area. Ukraine is hitting Russia's service sector about as hard as the worst days of covid.
(https://preview.redd.it/scfe0h4af5891.jpg?width=6720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5d5fed64beb689e35861577cc26c7649395662ca)
Kyiv sent some bombed out z-tanks to Warsaw as part of an art exhibit entitled "The Invincible Army" (https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/first-war-damaged-russian-tanks-go-on-show-in-warsaw-to-prove-that-the-russians-can-be-defeated-31334) (the irony being that it was the Ukrainians who proved invincible, not the Russians, despite initial assumptions)
Quote"Ukrainian soldiers are defending not only their homeland, but also the security of Poland and the whole of Europe," Dworczyk continued, referring to the title of the exhibition."If it were not for the heroic resistance, determination and courage of Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers, ordinary civilians who took up arms overnight, it is very likely that Russian tanks would be at the Polish border today," he said.
Crowded shopping center in central Ukraine hit by russian missiles. Around 1000 people there at the time of the attack.
Nowhere near any military targets. This was a 100% deliberate act of terrorism.
It's abundantly clear that Russia cannot be trusted to abide by international law or basic morality. After the war, Russia must demilitarize as a precondition for even the possiblity of an end to sanctions.
Russia says that Ukraine's plans to liberate Crimea from Russian occupation would be an act of war (read: threats)
But Russia also said that a bunch of stuff constituted an act of war, like sending Ukraine any sort of aid.
So I've gotta ask, is Russia prepared to do anything more terrible than what it's already doing? If not, get stuffed. If yes, all the more reason to double down on support for Ukraine.
Turkey agrees to Sweden and Finland joining NATO (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197251.htm)
Looks like there's nothing stopping those two countries from joining NATO. Another tough break for Putin. NATO will soon have a much larger border with Russia and more support for the three Baltic states.
Putin, who wanted NATO to stop expanding, has done more than anybody in causing it to expand and become more formidable than ever.
(https://i.imgur.com/17HLbsw_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
Ukraine to get guided shells for its artillery from the US (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/06/28/ukrainian-artillery-is-about-to-get-a-lot-more-accurate/?sh=76ae331b173c).
This will make their artillery strikes much more accurate than they have been so far and really put the hurt on Russia.
US to bolster its military presence in Europe (https://mobile.twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1542063170172452868): permanent military HQ in Poland, additional F-35s, additional destroyers, additional air-defense.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 07:26:09 AMTurkey agrees to Sweden and Finland joining NATO (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197251.htm)
Nato has formally invited Sweden and Finland to join the alliance. I can't keep up. Has Ukraine been invited already?. Putin needs to know he doesn't have a right to invade other countries just because he shares a border with them. Good grief, I don't want another war, but Putin is way out of order, and needs to feel the power of the west right in his face. He needs to be humiliated and not given any chance to save face. We may need to take this war right to Moscow, and I mean geographically right to Moscow, not in some metaphorical sense.
Finland and Sweden are in the process of joining NATO, afaik Ukraine is not.
But Ukraine is in the process of joining the EU.
An oldie but a goodie:
(https://i.redd.it/r3q9l3xp0k891.jpg)
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 12:50:27 PMAn oldie but a goodie:
(https://i.redd.it/r3q9l3xp0k891.jpg)
What a fail of intelligence. Also, what a fail of intelligence!
144 Ukrainian POWs freed in prisoner exchange (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-mariupol-prisoners-of-war-exchange-freed-170902486.html)
95 of them were defenders from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol
43 of those are members of the Azov Regiment
Prisoner exchanges are always a net win for Ukraine since Russian soldiers are comparitively worthless.
Edit - the Free Russia soldiers are alright. So I guess it's not so much nationality as it is dictactor boot-licking. Leads to spinal damage, or so I've heard. So it makes sense that so many pro-Putin troops are trying to leave combat for medical reasons, citing spinal damage.
Ukrainians raise $20 million to buy more Bayraktar drones, the company donates three for free (https://www.reuters.com/world/turkeys-baykar-donate-three-uavs-ukraine-after-crowdfunding-campaign-2022-06-27/)
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 29, 2022, 07:22:20 PM144 Ukrainian POWs freed in prisoner exchange (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-mariupol-prisoners-of-war-exchange-freed-170902486.html)
95 of them were defenders from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol
43 of those are members of the Azov Regiment
Prisoner exchanges are always a net win for Ukraine since Russian soldiers are comparitively worthless.
Edit - the Free Russia soldiers are alright. So I guess it's not so much nationality as it is dictactor boot-licking. Leads to spinal damage, or so I've heard. So it makes sense that so many pro-Putin troops are trying to leave combat for medical reasons, citing spinal damage.
Not sure how
all Russian tanks got to Ukraine. But in the past, Russians have dropped tanks from aircraft with parachutes,
with the soldiers in them. Could that be the cause of spinal damage claims? Or is the suspension system in them such shit? No idea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpTTWYNVSlw
Since WWII, military vehicles have been airdropped (sometimes with hilariously costly results if the parachute doesn't deploy correctly)
It's not super common for tanks to be airdropped, but it can be done.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/C-130_airdrop.jpg)
Afaik, never with the troops inside them. That'd be way too risky and not at all advantageous compared to them dropping alongside the tank.
Meet the heroes: Shaman Battalion (https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-special-ops-team-carries-121000801.html)
Highly skilled and fit soldiers who infiltrate Russia and conduct sabotage operations to the bewilderment of its guards.
They were also involved at the pivotal battles at Hostomel airport and at a strategic site just west of Kyiv when those big "stack of doom" convoys were making headlines. Don't hear much about them anymore for some reason...
They also train total newbies, which must be a helluva crash course!
The geniuses over at the Kremlin apparently figured out how to work Google Maps and have "leaked" the locations of both the NATO summit and Pentagon (https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-publishes-pentagon-coordinates-says-western-satellites-work-our-enemy-2022-06-28/), presumably in preparation for some sort of attack, though that seems incredibly unlikely.
Now, I'm not a military tactician of any kind, but I could've gotten this info during a bathroom break at Amazon.
Hell, I could even go on a tour of the Pentagon whenever I feel like it. It's not like it's Area 51.
This stunt just screams extreme, barely believable levels of ignorance (next, they'll be doxxing our embassies) combined with a severe misapprehension of US resolve. The latter certainly hasn't been doing them any favors in Ukraine.
Apparently, Russian officers are asking for bribes to transfer troops away from war, but renege after getting the money. I sense frag grenades in their future.
Ukrainian forces strike Snake Island. Again. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3518436-ukraines-armed-forces-strike-another-russian-pantsirs1-system-on-zmiinyi-island.html)
Putin lost yet more troops, howitzers, vehicles, and another fuel depot.
Edit - also an air defense system (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3518436-ukraines-armed-forces-strike-another-russian-pantsirs1-system-on-zmiinyi-island.html)...to an air unit, its intended target. Humiliating.
UK pledges additional £1 billion ($1.22 billion) in military aid (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61990479)
This brings the total up to £2.3 billion in military aid, with an additional £1.5 in humanitarian aid.
After reading a few articles, I wonder if the amount of Russian equipment destroyed is even significant compared to the equipment lost to corruption.
In the eastern front, the Ukrainian Air Force uses fighters and bombers to destroy a command post, two ammo depots, and a rocket artillery weapons depot (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/30/7355502/)
Quote from: Cassia on June 30, 2022, 10:04:32 AMAfter reading a few articles, I wonder if the amount of Russian equipment destroyed is even significant compared to the equipment lost to corruption.
Hard to say. Especially since corruption often plays a crucial role in its destruction. We do know that a significant amount of russian equipment was abandoned, likely due to a combination of damage, poor maintenance (which may or may not be corruption-related), and poor morale.
Imho, both corruption and western tech played a major role in russian equipment losses. A lessening of either one would've changed the outcome of these battles considerably.
Update: Russia abandons Snake Island (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-steps-up-attacks-ukraine-after-landmark-nato-summit-2022-06-30%2F)
QuoteRussia's defence ministry said it had decided to withdraw from the outcrop as a "gesture of goodwill"
🤣 Oh man, the Russian comedy club is open today! The mouth of Sauron speaks of generosity. Risible.
Quote"KABOOM!" tweeted Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff. "No Russian troops on the Snake Island anymore. Our Armed Forces did a great job."
Quote"The enemy hurriedly evacuated the remains of the garrison with two speed boats and probably left the island. Currently, Snake island is consumed by fire, explosions are bursting."
Ukraine shoots down a Russian attack helicopter near Snake Island (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3519074-ukrainian-military-shoot-down-russias-ka52-approaching-snake-island.html)
QuoteAccording to the South Operational Command, Russians attempted to organize a rescue operation, but their helicopter joined the missile cruiser Moskva, which had sunk earlier.
Rough seas even in the air. The Ukrainians sure know how to rub it in. :P
QuoteIn the Black Sea, the enemy's naval group now consists of two missile ships and two large landing crafts. They continue to blockade the north-western part of the Black Sea but keep a far distance, as they became vulnerable after Russia's air defense on Snake Island was destroyed.
Snake Island was an important staging ground, air defense, and an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" for a nation whose fleet is shockingly sinkable. Well, if the ship is invulnerable, then the most vulnerable thing there are the men on it...
And without either the Moskva or Snake Island to provide air defense for its much more vulnerable vessels, the Black Sea fleet is again forced to keep its distance or incur Neptune's wrath.
Russia deliberately starving Mauripol residents (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-halts-mariupol-deliveries-almost-all-food-goods-gone-ukraine-1720853)
Wives of Russian soldiers plead for their withdrawal from war (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/29/russian-wives-plead-for-husbands/)
QuoteA group of wives of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine since the invasion began on Feb. 24 recorded an extraordinary video appeal to local authorities to bring their men home alive. One of them called the war "unjust" in comments on social media and said authorities must take the blame for any more men killed.
Certainly a bit of a departure from the official line...
Quote"The servicemen are exhausted morally and physically. They all have mild to moderate concussions. The soldiers have been in the field from January to the present day. Many people have flu-like diseases," the statement said.
'All according to plan', says Putin. Then it's a pretty sick and twisted plan.
Conscientious Russians must quit the war in order for there to be peace again. Putin has no conscience, so you must do it yourselves.
Putin blames West for "forcing" him to accelerate "unification" with Belarus (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/1/7355824/)
Looks like Putin's so desperate for additional manpower than he's looking to takeover Belarus and use Belarusians as his new cannon fodder.
Belarus seems to have a little say over this matter of joining the war. Good luck Vlad.
Russia bombs Snake Island to destroy the equipment they were forced to abandon (https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1542944402850697217?s=21&t=DtQTIPbEtfHlO3Y7S2EPBQ)
Essentially, Russian munitions and Russian equipment are destroying each other. So awful. Please don't repeat the process all over temporarily occupied Ukraine. That would make me so unhappy.
Russian officials terrified of working in temporarily occupied territory, demand security guarantees (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3520102-moscow-officials-terrified-of-working-in-occupied-areas-of-ukraine-demanding-security.html)
The poor sods guarding ammo depots 50km from the frontlines don't get security guarantees. The personel at Berdyansk port don't get security guarantees. Hell, people working in Belogrod - in Russia - don't get security guarantees.
Being in Ukraine is hazardous to your health. Anything could happen at any moment. Leave while you still can. Flee like your life depends on it.
Separatist fighters calls Russian soldiers war criminals and imbeciles (https://news.yahoo.com/separatist-fighter-reportedly-told-wife-154815382.html)
QuoteDuring the phone call, the soldier describes disorganization and chaos among the Russian soldiers, using a slur to call Putin's forces morons and comparing soldier infighting to those who mutinied during World War I.
"Like during the war on Potemkin, in the night, they had support come in to help them, and they started firing on themselves, Russians firing on Russians, destroying themselves," he says.
QuoteThe separatist fighter also complains that Russian forces aren't allowing them to rotate off the front lines.
"I just want them to get us out of here," he said, adding that he thinks the Russians aren't allowing soldiers off the front lines because they're afraid they'll desert and never return.
Ukrainian forces used a Harpoon missile to sink a Russian resupply ship headed to Snake Island (https://news.usni.org/2022/07/01/dod-ukraine-sinks-russian-supply-ship-with-harpoon-missile)
There's a lot of low-quality steel and Russian uniforms at the bottom of that sea. Russia should consider the environmental impact of such deployments before starting wars.
Not so fast, Comrade: Russian soldiers detain their commander so that he won't flee war (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3520593-russian-soldiers-take-their-commander-prisoner-so-that-he-would-not-flee-intercept.html)
QuoteEarlier, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that the employees of the Russian security agencies had begun to write resignation reports massively.
Hmmm...
I'm sure you guys know the traditional drunk Russian videos? I've been thinking about those and since this shit has started. It's hopeful when you look at that way, isn't it?
Ukrainian forces blow up military base in Melitopol (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3520685-ukrainian-forces-destroy-russian-military-base-in-melitopol.html)
Resistance also derailed a train carrying russian military. Again.
I'm noticing a pattern - if a tactic works against the invaders, it can be used again and again and it'll be just as effective a month from now as today. They don't learn or adapt, they just send more men and more bombs. They'd rather run out of both than learn a thing.
Russia tacitly admits it's running out of weapons for Ukraine war (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-putin-admits-running-out-weapons-ukraine-war-invasion-state-duma-law-1720957), seeks to revamp war production/repair/resupply
^ related story: Russian defense firms refuse to repair equipment damaged in Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3520928-russian-factories-refusing-to-repair-military-equipment-damaged-in-ukraine-intel.html)
Quoterepair companies instructed their staff not to accept the incoming equipment. The reason behind their stance is the lack of components and insufficient funds paid by the military for the work already completed.
Ouch. Tried to swindle the defense sector during a war. I'm not surprised that they refuse to lift a finger now. They're gonna let Cheapskate Dictator twist in the wind till he gets what he's owed or they get what they're owed.
Quote"The command tried to address the issue by deploying field repair brigades, which were supposed to operate in close proximity to the combat zones. However, corruption and greed for profit among the Russian military leadership brought the attempt to naught," intelligence analysts stressed.
Corruption even knee deep in war. That's quite a commitment to losing! I dunno if that's a twisted sort of heroism or not, but either way, Ukraine thanks them along with the free world.
QuoteBefore the damaged equipment is delivered to repair plants, it gets completely dismantled, while spare parts and units are sold or exchanged for alcohol. In some cases, only charred bodies of BMPs and tanks make it to repair factories.
Charred bodies...yikes! I'd need alcohol for that, too.
Russian amphibious assault ship sunk by mine in Black Sea (https://m-glavcom-ua.translate.goog/news/rosiyske-sudno-akula-zatonulo-poblizu-mariupolya-857776.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
QuoteThree sailors are already singing songs for fish together with Kobzon
I don't know what this is supposed to mean exactly, but I'm sure it's savage in the orginal Ukrainian.
And Shark seem like an appropriate name for such a vessel - now permanently beneath the waves.
Russia sent a shipment of stolen Ukrainian grain to Turkey - which then seized it. (https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-ambassador-turkey-says-russian-ship-carrying-ukrainian-grain-detained-2022-07-03/)
My brother and I talked about what we would do in that situation. I would seize the ship and send its grain to the most famine-stricken parts of the world. For free, of course. I would publicly thank Russia for its generous donation in helping to alleviate this terrible humanitarian crisis and would ask for more if they are willing and able to help those truly in need.
What's Russia going to do about it? Any complaint would destroy its own propaganda. Any retaliatory act would prove their true intentions...and trigger a NATO response.
And if they go along with it, they effectively undo their own efforts in creating this hunger crisis. And whatever ports the rest of the stolen grain goes to could possibly be similarly seized, so Russia's plan is now riddled with uncertainty. It's lose-lose for them.
Russia has never been more vulnerable than it is now. It expects deference and obedience and respect that it has not earned and likely will never earn. Don't obey. Frustrate their efforts as much as possible.
Russian officers allegedly selling troop locations (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russians-fear-commanders-are-selling-their-own-troops-locations-for-cash?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4)
Wild allegation, but then, lots of wild things have been going on there - officers abandoning troops, troops deserting, all sorts of corruption, abandoning the wounded, sabotaging equipment to sell as scrap (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-sabotage-their-own-missile-system-to-sell-as-scrap-metal-says-ukrainian-intel), trying to fake a marriage to get out of the war (https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-catches-russian-troops-plotting-fake-marriages-to-ditch-war-in-intercepted-calls), self-injury, etc.
Nothing surprises me at this point.
Ukrainian forces HIMARS strike on invader base in Melitopol results in 150 invaders killed and 300 more wounded (https://uanews-zp-ua.translate.goog/other/2022/07/05/230996.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_sch=http)
Prisons and corporations across Russia are recruiting "volunteers" to fight in Ukraine (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/05/russian-prisons-corporations-recruit-ukraine-volunteers-reports-a78206)
Invaders preparing to assault Bakhmut and Siversk (https://en.socportal.info/en/news/russian-troops-are-preparing-an-attack-on-bakhmut-and-siversk/)
However, they're unlikely to succeed because of heavy losses from Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.
They're also taking a lot of losses from HIMARS fire.
Are you liking it, Comrade? Russia's knockoff McDonald's has mold, bugs (https://www.newsweek.com/mcdonalds-russia-vkusno-mold-bugs-burger-1721715) (so not much difference)
Another Russian exec found dead (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-gazprom-executive-dead-gas-energy-b2116135.html), shot to death in his swimmimg pool. That's five so far. Gazprom execs have really been dropping like flies lately.
Does the "state" glom their assets when they are dead?
Quote from: Dark Lightning on July 06, 2022, 10:07:20 AMDoes the "state" glom their assets when they are dead?
Afaik, no. They don't have an inheritance tax. Unless otherwise specified in their will, the money goes to the spouse, children, parents, more distant relations, etc.
Russia brings its disgusting imperialism to space, cosmonauts wave "redesigned" Luhansk/Donetsk flag at ISS (https://www.space.com/russia-cosmonauts-ukraine-luhansk-propaganda)
This is like German astronomers waving the Vichy France flag. They're not "separatists", they're conquered, and the flag - desgned by their invaders and current overlords - is a symbol of that.
Good thing that Russia has been booted from future joint space exploration. Any nation that can't explore space in peace must be left behind on the ground.
Ukraine shoots down 6 out of 7 missiles fired at it from Black Sea, destroys two more invader ammo depots, two invader "platoon strongholds" (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3522822-ukraine-forces-down-nine-russian-missiles-two-ammo-depots-invaders-strongholds.html)
Significant portion of Russian lead factories shut down (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3523019-russias-largest-secondary-lead-producer-suspends-operations.html)
Domestic demand for lead is extremely low, so they need to export it to make money. But the gov didn't issue export licenses because they're afraid of a potential domestic wartime shortage if they do. So now they're shut down because of a lack of export partners, thus creating the production shortage that officials feared would happen in the first place!
Basically, it's a clusterputin of indecision and poor management creating a completely preventable snafu - Z-Russia to a tee.
Interesting video of Russians destroying captured Ukrainian equipment.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1544682639646392321 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1544682639646392321)
That was from very early in the war. Despite the ensuing shower of flaming debris, afaik no russian soldiers were killed or injured.
Russia planned to raze Mariupol from the start (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-planned-in-advance-to-destroy-mariupol-says-mayor-boychenko-50254577.html)
Even if Mariupol had surrendered without a shot fired, it would still be burned to the ground.
Bear this in mind every time Russia talks of wanting peace or humanitarian motivations.
a top Russian official has warned the U.S. against punishing Russia's actions in Ukraine, saying it risks incurring the wrath of God if it does so (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html)
Oh no, a totally credible threat. Better do as they say and reverse those sanctions pronto!
In unrelated news, Russia couldn't hold onto Snake Island, a small but strategically and symbolically significant island and the Ukrainian flag flies there once more!
(https://i.redd.it/6vsh735fa3a91.jpg)
Ukrainian forces blew up 16 invader ammo depots and/or bases over the last week (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3523681-ukrainian-army-eliminated-16-enemy-bases-ammunition-warehouses-in-past-week.html)
Invaders stop advancing, initiate "operational pause" (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3523570-invaders-initiated-operational-pause-in-war-with-ukraine-isw.html)
QuoteFor the first time since the beginning of the war, Russia has not claimed territorial gains in Ukraine.
They paid dearly for minimal gains on Donbas, even losing ground near Kharkiv, [redacted], and of course Snake Island.
HIMARS have definitely made an impact, and invader forces continue to suffer serious logistics and morale difficulties.
They'll likely take some time to regroup and work out a new strategy. Though I have to wonder what a spent force can realistically accomplish. It's not like you can spend those lives twice, despite dictactor Putin's fervent wish to do so.
When the going gets tough: Invaders abandon their warehouses in occupied areas for fear of HIMARS attacks (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1544978989890011138?s=20&t=5o1M2loiJF2B--XDAxvlJg)
If possible, Ukraine should broadcast footage of this *heh* "heroism" to the entire world before asking for more HIMARS. Yakety Sax music would be appropriate, I think.
It's no wonder that invader forces need time to regroup, this is what they're working with:
(https://i.redd.it/kxcu4szv7y991.jpg)
I've seen pigs being transported with more care and protection.
Pigs are usefull.
Pigs are valuable.
Pig are valued.
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on July 07, 2022, 04:07:33 PMPigs are usefull.
Pigs are valuable.
Pigs are intelligent.
Belarus Threatens to Attack Poland in Case of "Provocations by the West"
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/7/7142774/
Enough Is Enough. Time for Ukraine to Cut Ties with Belarus
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/07/5/7142602/
"European Pravda is a Ukrainian online media outlet dedicated to Europe, NATO and reforms in Ukraine. "EP" website was launched in early June 2014. ..."
I'd love to see them try.
Poland active personnel: 120,000 (NATO equipment)
Belarus active personnel: 62,000 (Aging soviet-era equipment)
95% of Belarus doesn't want hostilities with Ukraine, let alone Poland.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXM2mAGWYAAnTZT?format=jpg&name=large)
During the "operational pause" (lack of a major advance due to lack of manpower), Russia has resorted to amassing "reserve forces" in antiqued, poorly-armored MT-LBs (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MT-LB). If you thought the T-62s were insufficient, just wait till you get a load of these.
These things were first made in '50s. And while both sides have used them in this conflict, until now, they've always been used in support roles and kept away from the front lines. Now we're going to see why.
This has got to be the most stereotypically Russian "solution" to the stalled invasion possible: just throw more men at 'em and as poorly provisioned as possible. Pretty much guaranteed extremely heavy losses with little/no payoff. No wonder they're using convicts.
US says invader bridge is fair game (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-official-says-russias-prized-kerch-bridge-fair-target-for-ukrainian-forces)
So don't be shy, let 'er rip!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXImnT4XEAEeEUn?format=jpg&name=large)
21 invader ammo depots blown up so far
Desperation move: Russia fires modified surface-to-air missiles against ground targets (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-300-surface-to-air-missiles-at-land-targets-in-ukraine-official) (so essentially, surface-to-surface)
I do wonder how much satellite intelligence about Russian troop placements is being provided by the US/West?
Quote from: Cassia on July 09, 2022, 04:27:59 PMI do wonder how much satellite intelligence about Russian troop placements is being provided by the US/West?
A LOT (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-09/card/ukraine-to-get-access-to-commercial-spy-satellite-imagery-bG7A3JxTwitEGB80MXsd). Reconnaissance with spy planes, spy drones, and my personal favorite, spy satellites. As well as...clandestine means...
US intel isn't perfect by a long shot, but it is amazing at tracking tanks and artillery/missile trajectories. Russian missile launches and convoy movements are especially noticeable. Russians hide their APCs in bushes or behind buildings like it matters at all lol.
Ammo depot cooking off in Luhansk (https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1545944176021454849)
Shows the true scale of the destruction wrought by HIMARS
Russia has lot less shells to hurl at civilians.
Russian tank offensive thwarted, Russia losses entire tank company (9 tanks) (https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/large_russian_tank_offensive_thwarted_entire_tank_company_got_entrapped_and_eliminated_video-3519.html)
In the footage, a z-tank drives to where 4 other z-tanks are destroyed (nothing suspicious there at all) and runs right over an anti-tank mine right next to a destroyed tank. Man, what are the odds???
The free world is so lucky that these guys do a lot of moronic stuff to hurt their own war effort.
Speaking of moronic, another red on red incident
A DPR battallion was effectively wiped out after Russian forces mistakenly identified it as an enemy and open fire. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3525909-dpr-battalion-destroyed-in-russian-friendly-fire.html)
In the near future, DPR/LDP might want to rethink their alliances. Because Ukrainian forces are going to be bringing a world of hurt in their direction and they can either bury the Russians or be buried with them.
Ukraine launched 11 new HIMARS strikes overnight. (https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1546049511101005824?t=o6lQMSt-mbr8rkbuV1-kRw&s=19) Lots of strategic targets going up in flames.
After the Bucha massacre, a Russian invader proudly announced that they should commit even more crimes against humanity (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1545896619484348416?s=21&t=vNJRNueKWqb-CWK5Difwxg). (Reason #1001567 why I regard invader soldiers as little different from their master) He was recently killed in action. So sad.
They say that only the good die young. I say that this is not necessarily true.
(https://i.redd.it/a52db8yrpqa91.png)
Z-Zombie letting us know that Allied aid to Ukraine is having an impact.
"Two precision missile strikes on Kherson City since this morning (https://mobile.twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1546100276372934660?t=ANjZ-dkpFC8Mi_VTFPErlg&s=09). Russian National Guard barracks hit. Locals report of Russians screaming from under the rubble."
🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻
Lithuania expands sanctioned item list, now includes alcohol (https://www.rferl.org/a/lithuania-restrictions-russia-kaliningrad/31937896.html)
Kallingrad can still get their booze delivered by port, it just might take longer and be more expensive.
Ukrainian army destroys mobile command post in Kherson region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3526464-ukraine-army-destroys-russias-mobile-command-post-in-tavriisk.html)
Also destroyed radar and air defense systems
Ukraine defense minister predicts Russian federation/empire collapse (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/10/7357413/)
After 2 years or so of sending its youth into a meat grinder, so don't expect Putin to be gone next Tuesday.
But when he is gone, Russia will have a much more difficult time keeping its dissidents in check and quite a few regions very unhappy with the regime. Things could escalate...
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 08:04:56 AMUkraine defense minister predicts Russian federation/empire collapse (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/10/7357413/)
I hope he's right because Russia is bullshit. Potentially, they have a lot to offer, but they only offer bullshit. And at that, bullshit is an understatement. The world would be better off without Russia.
Ukraine amassing a million-strong army to liberate the south (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62118953)
I'm on pins and needles for them to liberate Kherson city, but they can't just go rushing in. That's a Russian tactic. They have to play it smart and choose their battles carefully to minimize casualties and ensure sustainable victories. And unfortunately, that'll take a while.
Kherson airport hit again (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1546475062739570688?s=20&t=4FpFJQHyCzbV9YhW6M8njw)
Axis of Evil: Iran prepares to supply Russia with drones (https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/politics/iran-russia-weapons-capable-drones/index.html)
Another one bites the dust: Russian general killed in Ukraine (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-himars-kherson-himars-major-general-artem-nasbulin-1723690)
That's 16 total, iirc. (confirmed and unconfirmed)
He's not alone: apparently a slew of orc officers were killed (https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546564286771773441?s=20&t=ifEQCMB405t5Vqe3CQyhIQ) in Kherson region from a HIMARS strike.
🌻 🌻 🌻
There was also graphic footage of an invader crushed to death by the turret of his own tank.
Grisly stuff, but if that's not symbolic of the whole "special operation", I dunno what is.
Over 100 Russian soldiers choose to live, give up the war (https://www.newsweek.com/over-100-russian-servicemen-quit-refuse-fight-ukraine-war-buryatia-1723822)
Dictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 03:53:18 PMDictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 03:53:18 PMDictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)
Remember when Bush saw Putin's soul?
"I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country
Dubya might not be the best judge of character, lol
That dude was in bed with more neocons than an Epstein-procured preteen.
Quote from: Cassia on July 12, 2022, 06:49:34 PMRemember when Bush saw Putin's soul?
"I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country
One of our resident war criminals.
Quote from: Mike Cl on July 12, 2022, 10:51:43 PMOne of our resident war criminals.
Hey! His dad said he wasn't a war criminal and you can count on family to be completely impartial in such circumstances.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 11:21:55 PMHey! His dad said he wasn't a war criminal and you can count on family to be completely impartial in such circumstances.
Yeah. I forgot about that.
Ukrainian forces blow up another ammo depot near Kherson (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3527476-ukraines-armed-forces-destroy-another-russian-ammo-depot-in-kherson-region.html)
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 03:53:18 PMDictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)
Actually, I think ruler fits him better. But it's odd that part of the problem is that it is still kind of a new word in Russia so the people are not comfortable with the term. "President" has been around for 200 years (that I know of), and is widely used around the world. Not that it makes much difference. A jerk by any other name is still a jerk.
I always thought calling those old world dictators "President" was a way to obscure the fact that they were harsh rulers. In fact, I never thought some of them deserved the title. To me this Russian thing sounds like an attempt to make it clearer to the Russian people that they are the property of Putin, and it's time for them to stop complaining about their lot in life. Especially now, since McDonald's has pulled out leaving them nothing to eat, except what Putin gives them.
Quote from: SGOS on July 13, 2022, 07:44:29 AMI always thought calling those old world dictators "President" was a way to obscure the fact that they were harsh rulers.
It absolutely is. But after a while, people catch on that the "President" keeps giving himself extra terms and eventually, the illusion falls apart. China dropped the charade and now Russia is doing the same.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 11, 2022, 10:29:14 PMAxis of Evil: Iran prepares to supply Russia with drones (https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/politics/iran-russia-weapons-capable-drones/index.html)
Update: Iran refuses (https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/news/iran_ofitsijno_vidmoviv_kremlju_u_prodazhi_bpla_nastupnij_krok_poprositi_raketi_u_kndr-8137.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Imagine being so desperate for drones that you turn to a country whose military history is best described as human-wave attacks and whose people have been under international sanctions for decades. And they refuse to help you.
Putin is twisting in the wind right now.
(https://i.redd.it/y5xila3skab91.jpg)
On the left is attacks on Ukraine on July 8th.
On the right is attacks on Ukraine on July 12th.
A lot less activity due to HIMARS
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 12, 2022, 03:53:18 PMDictator Putin wishes to be called "ruler" of Russia rather than "president". (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-called-ruler-russia-new-proposal-ldpr-kremlin-1723295)
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/Two_inch_ruler.jpg)
Russian soldiers more frequently drunk and insubordinate (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-soldiers-increasingly-more-drunk-and-insubordinate-russia-news-ukraine-news-50256121.html)
QuoteAlcohol abuse and desertion are rampant in Russian forces, according to the message.
Enemy soldiers also tend to complain about being ordered into futile and ineffective attack on Ukrainian defenses.
The way this is phrased, you'd think a Russian colonel was marching on Kyiv and watching his troops get blown to bits all while calling them whiners.
Ukraine has recently received a second batch of Krab howitzers from Poland (they already have 18) as well as American M777A2 howitzers (the A2 variant can fire extended-range Excalibur guided shells, so it can fire farther and more accurately to be more likely to kill orcs with less risk to civilians)
More HIMARS are coming, too.
Russian forces are going to wish they never set foot in Ukraine very soon.
Pro-Putin propagandist likely got Russian ammo depot blown up by filming it (https://most-ks-ua.translate.goog/news/url/zsu_znischili_vorozhij_sklad_bojepripasiv_v_novij_kahovtsi_jmovirno_zavdjaki_blogeru_z_dnr?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc)
Another wave of Russian civilians emigrate from Putin's Russia (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/russians-flee-putins-regime-after-ukraine-war-in-second-wave-of-migration.html)
Exact numbers are currently unknown, but at least 100,000.
This exacerbates the -7% population growth rate and causes yet more brain drain.
"Destroyed HIMARS" in fact just Oshkosh military truck.
Claimed HIMARS:(https://i.redd.it/driyqu9k8eb91.jpg)
Legit HIMARS:
(https://interfax.com.ua/media/thumbs/images/2022/05/aKgwnG6wiVn5.jpg)
Fun fact: none of the donated HIMARS are tan.
Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and UN reps agree to establish a coordination center in Istanbul for grain transport (http://establishacoordinationcenterinistanbulforthegraintransport)
Presumably, this will allow Ukraine to more safely and quickly export grain (the remaining grain that hasn't been stolen, occupied, or fire-bombed)
Though I note that Russia has a rather extensive history of breaking agreements, notably the Russian–Ukrainian Friendship Treaty, which prohibited either country from declaring war on or invading the other. I think we can safely conclude that this treaty was not fully honored.
Putin expands Russian passports to all of Ukraine, not just occupied regions of Ukraine (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-weaponizes-russian-passports-in-his-imperial-war-to-eliminate-ukraine/)
So anyone who thinks Putin will be content with Donbas and Crimea, think again. He wants nothing less than the complete conquest of Ukraine and elimination of Ukrainian statehood. And that's likely a prelude for much more extensive territorial ambitions.
Russian lawmakers propose expanding anti-gay law (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/11/russia-proposes-extending-gay-propaganda-law-to-all-adults)
QuoteAuthorities say they are defending morality in the face of what they argue are un-Russian liberal values promoted by the West.
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/034/652/agree.jpg)
So you agree, Russian "values" are illiberal?
Forty-five nations pledge to coordinate evidence of war crimes in Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/west-seeks-coordinate-evidence-war-crimes-ukraine-2022-07-14/)
Yesterday, Ukrainians bombed Russian ammo dumps while Russia bombed civilians.
Ukrainian forces destroy Invader HQ and barracks in Kherson (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3529535-ukrainian-forces-destroy-russian-headquarters-barracks-in-kherson-region.html)
In the East, Ukrainian paratroopers destroy 9 tanks, 7 armored vehicles, and about 70 invaders (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3529526-ukrainian-paratroopers-destroy-nine-russian-tanks-seven-armored-vehicles-about-70-invaders.html)
The Russian army is making it all about inaccurate Soviet era artillery and simply pounding away at whatever they can hit. Thousands of pieces. Just awful what they are doing.
Seems to me it will come down to the Ukrainians getting enough modern big guns and rockets from NATO to outrange them and keep hitting Russian ammo supplies. Russian gun barrels will begin to wear out.
Quote from: Cassia on July 15, 2022, 05:24:36 PMThe Russian army is making it all about inaccurate Soviet era artillery and simply pounding away at whatever they can hit. Thousands of pieces. Just awful what they are doing.
70% of Russian artillery strikes are against non-military targets (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3529899-nearly-70-of-russian-missile-strikes-hit-peaceful-targets-ukraines-defense-ministry.html)
Russian jets try to bomb Snake Island, fail (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-jets-miss-snake-island-air-forces-failing-ukraine-battle-uk-1724978)
In Baltic news:
Estonia seeks to prohibit Russians/Belarusians from owning firearms (https://news.err.ee/1608658276/russian-belarusian-citizens-will-not-be-allowed-to-own-firearms-in-estonia)
Latvia wants to bring back the draft (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-neighbor-latvia-wants-to-bring-back-the-military-draft-because-it-fears-russia-will-attack-so-quickly-that-nato-can-t-help-defense-minister-says/ar-AAZDBgs?ocid=EMMX&cvid=8594ef39c91a4276b4d148218d000b19)
US approves HIMARS sale to Estonia, air-to-air missiles to Norway (https://www.defensedaily.com/u-s-approves-500-million-himars-sale-with-estonia-950-million-amraam-missile-deal-with-norway/international/)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXwxosLVUAEM1Qq?format=jpg&name=medium)
It would be a real shame if they fail to make any progress at all towards areas they prematurely said that they control. That would make it crystal clear that they're lying.
Today, 8 years ago, a Russian anti-air system in Ukraine shot down a Dutch civilian airliner, killing everyone on board
https://v.redd.it/eiombmipa3c91
Ammo depot near Kherson blown up. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3530897-ukrainian-forces-destroy-enemys-ammunition-depot-in-kherson-region.html) Again.
Quotethe Russians set up an ammunition depot, headquarters, and barracks. Tonight, all this vanished, because the Ukrainian Armed Forces hit the target accurately," he wrote.
Locals say that "it burned very well and detonated for a long time," Khlan said.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 17, 2022, 02:08:52 PMAmmo depot near Kherson blown up. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3530897-ukrainian-forces-destroy-enemys-ammunition-depot-in-kherson-region.html) Again.
Now, it's an ammo "dump".
"Commander is a vegetable"
Short-fingered vulgarian: Putin threatens to sue Swiss newspaper for portraying him as a clown (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-threatens-legal-action-newspaper-image-putin-clown-2022-7?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds)
(https://preview.redd.it/bgb4areyyzb91.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=9c21b4c9041809ebc26d0afd227cfc06ca896348)
QuoteIt took special offense at the rainbow colors on Putin's face, citing his hostility to LGBTQ people.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 17, 2022, 03:46:43 PMShort-fingered vulgarian: Putin threatens to sue Swiss newspaper for portraying him as a clown (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-threatens-legal-action-newspaper-image-putin-clown-2022-7?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds)
(https://preview.redd.it/bgb4areyyzb91.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=9c21b4c9041809ebc26d0afd227cfc06ca896348)
Hey, that meme was shared just to piss him off; it finally happened.
Red on red: Russia allegedly shot down its own bomber (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoots-su-34-bomber-luhansk-ukraine-claims-1725524)
Ukrainian aircraft conduct two airtrikes against Russian stronghold in Kherson region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/18/7358670/)
Due to heavy casualties, Russian mercenary group Wagner lowers standards (https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-putin-private-army-recruiting-standards-losses-1725456)
Quote"Wagner are lowering recruitment standards, hiring convicts and formerly blacklisted individuals. Very limited training is made available to new recruits," it said, adding that this will highly likely impact on the future operational effectiveness of the group.
To paraphrase their leader: they'll take anyone whose heart is in the alt-right place.
(https://i.redd.it/xnrn4gbg9bc91.jpg)
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/031/425/Screen_Shot_2019-10-09_at_10.41.04_AM.jpg)
The cynic in me assumes that, being a CEO it had far more to do with ruzzia is strapped for cash and she didn't want daddy Putin taking her "hard earned money" so she bailed while she could still do so.
But either way, it's hopefully less money for the orcs.
Some Russian commaders brought with them Soviet-era maps of Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3531636-some-russian-commanders-used-lastcentury-maps-when-invading-ukraine-sbu.html), one as far back as 1969.
Suffice it to say that the cities and roads have changed quite a lot over the past 53 years.
Due to HIMARS threat, Russian logistics becoming even more complicated (https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548684752135364608)
"Spetsnaz is just a word"
Russian troops jump out of trucks headed to Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3532435-russian-troops-jump-out-of-trucks-only-to-dodge-ukraine-deployment-intercept.html), according to intercepted call
Ukrainan forces destroy a top-tier radar system designed to detect aircraft in Kherson region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/20/7359124/), further weakening their air defense in the area. They were tipped off by partisan forces.
Ukrainan forces also destroyed an electronic warfare system near a Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3532722-ukrainian-forces-destroy-enemy-electronic-warfare-system-near-kakhovka-hpp.html) (also in Kherson region). This system is intended to suppress drones.
And finally, Ukraine hit several more command posts, control stations, logistic support bases in the area (https://nitter.net/VigilantinfoN/status/1549639990149259266)
All this definitely paints a picture of a reduction in enemy surveillance, c&c, and air defense prior to a major counter-offensive. We'll see.
Red on red: Russia shoots down own plane. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/07/20/they-did-it-again-russia-shoots-down-another-of-its-own-jets--are-american-rockets-confusing-them/?sh=19973f234a5a) Again. $85 million loss.
They certainly have a habit of repeating mistakes, not that the Ukrainians are complaining.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 18, 2022, 11:58:48 PM
"Spetsnaz is just a word"
'We have one usable tank, and our depots have been destroyed.'
Ouch!
Spetsnaz is just a word. But when I was in Army Intel., they were considered to be THE special force in the world. We were taught that one of the main targets was to be inserted into the battlefield behind the enemy (us) headquarters and to capture the top officers and especially the intel personnel. That was me--not really happy about that prospect. :))
Well, the good news is that they're much less of a threat than they were in the Cold War and they've been doing some... how you say... downsizing this year.
Come to think of it, the truly fearsome chunk of the old Soviet bloc is none other than Ukraine, and they're on much better terms with the West now than ever.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 20, 2022, 08:48:55 PMWell, the good news is that they're must less of a threat than they were in the Cold War and they've been doing some... how you say... downsizing this year.
Come to think of it, the truly fearsome chunk of the old Soviet bloc is none other than Ukraine, and they're on much better terms with the West now than ever.
Yeah, Ukraine was the USSR's industrial powerhouse. Prolly never thought they would be blowing up stuff they made back then.
Quote from: Cassia on July 20, 2022, 09:15:22 PMYeah, Ukraine was the USSR's industrial powerhouse. Prolly never thought they would be blowing up stuff they made back then.
Also one of the Soviet Union's sports powerhouse, along with Georgia making the Soviet Union one of the topped ranked football leagues in the world for awhile.
Dynamo Kyiv won more Soviet Top League Championships (13) than any team from Moskva (12), and was cheated out of quite a few more when the Soviets would occasionally kill their players or kidnap them and force to play in ruzzia, meanwhile FC Dinamo Tbilisi was able to win a European Championship backi n the day as well.
One can only hope this leaves a stain on the Vlaster.
Interstate commerce would have worked fine, but you chose butchery. For shame.
Ukrainian forces blow up more strongholds and ammo dumps along the southern front (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3533564-ukraine-delivers-10-strikes-at-enemy-strongholds-ammo-depots-in-southern-regions.html)
QuoteMeanwhile, our forces carried out ten airstrikes targeting the enemy: Three of them were helicopter strikes and seven - with the use of bombers and attack aircraft. Enemy strongholds were hit five times, clusters of manpower and equipment in Kherson region – three times, and ammunition depots in Mykolaiv region and Kherson region were hit twice," the Ukrainian military said.
Russian forces can't stand much more of this punishing attrition, especially in southern Ukraine. They put most of their forces in the east and sacrificed them in a couple phyrric victories. Now, they're mostly spent and can do little. Vehicles, artillery, ammo, manpower are all becoming depleted with no chance of major replenishment.
If this continues, it won't be that long before Russian forces in the south degrade to the point of being combat ineffective. From there, the only options are to retreat or die.
Either way, that territory will be returned. Imo, it looks like the southern front will wrap up in a similar way as the northern front.
Russia Boasts It Can 'Counteract' U.S. HIMARS After Suffering Heavy Losses (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-us-rocket-systems-himars-weapons-losses-1726753)
After suggesting that US forces are operating in Ukraine (lol no), Russia said that their air defense can shoot down HIMARS rockets. Okay, let's see it, then.
Quoteon Wednesday, Russia's air defense shot down 12 missiles over the Antonivka Road Bridge
QuoteTwelve rockets were fired, and 11 of them hit the bridge.
For someone who can totally shoot them down no problem, an awful lot are hitting.
Russian media also released a grainy image of an allegedly destroyed "m270 battalion".
(https://i.redd.it/jmm52pubqxc91.png)
It's grainy because it's from an early 90s video game, Command and Conquer. They posted the unit model for a rocket launcher vehicle from a video game and thought people would think that was legit.
They might as well post footage from Quake and claim it was from a lone Russian comnando fighting Ukrainian supersoldiers.
I always knew they were liars, but their disinfo is so desperate and schoolyard-level that it's a wonder that they were ever considered a superpower at all.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 21, 2022, 11:12:00 PMIt's grainy because it's from an early 90s video game, Command and Conquer. They posted the unit model for a rocket launcher vehicle from a video game and thought people would think that was legit.
Is Tommy Tallarico running this?
I'm to lazy to look up 'dork' in the dictionary, but Vlad, buddy, you're getting real close to whatever the definition is.
(https://i.redd.it/v1tdjts3d6d91.jpg)
Ukrainian forces destroy a Russian howitzer battallion (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3534534-ukraine-army-destroys-russias-howitzer-artillery-battalion-together-with-personnel.html) (8 batteries and their support vehicles, ammo, and personnel)
Russian servicemen who show their humanity and refuse to participate in the invasion are allegedly threatened with being sent to a concentration camp in "L/DNR" (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3534731-russian-soldiers-threatened-with-concentration-camp-in-ldnr-for-refusing-to-fight.html)
QuoteThe occupier tells his wife about threats to send everyone who refuses to further participate in the 'special operation' to a concentration camp in the 'L/DNR'.
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/028/165/ccvzrbwha9tx.jpg)
QuoteHe says that many Russian servicemen walk around drunk, do nothing, only make hooch," the report reads.
Is this... different from normal? I suppose crimes against humanity is the missing activity.
QuoteAccording to the invader, anarchy and corruption flourish in Russian units.
He also said that in his unit, nine servicemen were wounded and the commander was killed as a result of the UAV attack.
Ukraine has retaken about half the territory Russia has seized this year (https://medium.com/@mountainfactor/ukraine-has-managed-to-retake-half-of-the-territories-occupied-by-russia-c7f0ebebfa5a)
(https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*2NEUybONuHQlxiGc-dvpuw.jpeg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOP5AQXXEAUduJA.jpg)
While Ukraine has been blowing up invader ammo depots, Putin has been blowing up fish (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3534944-russians-fire-about-20-rockets-from-grad-systems-at-zaporizhzhia.html)
Russia asks for "green corridor" to evacuate encircled troops north of Kherson (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/23/2111993/-Ukraine-update-Russia-asks-for-green-corridor-to-evacuate-encircled-troops-north-of-Kherson)
QuoteFor all intents, the encirclement is effective. This is clear, because Russia has had the audacity to ask for a "green corridor" for surrounded troops. The same kind of corridor it refused to open so many times for trapped civilians. The same kind of corridor Russia has offered, then used as a convenient means of attack.
Ukraine refused, btw. No, safe passage to set up somewhere else and bomb babies. Of course, they can always surrender and live through this conflict in relative luxury and safety. Hell, if they behave themselves, they might even leave with a free toilet for the missus. Every conscript's dream. But no, no other deals.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 23, 2022, 03:44:07 PMRussia asks for "green corridor" to evacuate encircled troops north of Kherson (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/23/2111993/-Ukraine-update-Russia-asks-for-green-corridor-to-evacuate-encircled-troops-north-of-Kherson)
Ukraine refused, btw. No, safe passage to set up somewhere else and bomb babies. Of course, they can always surrender and live through this conflict in relative luxury and safety. Hell, if they behave themselves, they might even leave with a free toilet for the missus. Every conscript's dream. But no, no other deals.
"Wait, wait, time out!" Fuck them and the dump truck they rode in on.
Especially when one considers their other "green corridor" agreements (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilovaisk).
Hell, they just bombed Odessa (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/23/russian-strike-odessa-port-ukraine-grain/) after signing a green corridor for wheat exports.
Blockbuster night: Ukrainian drone hits Russians during movie night (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/24/7359891/) on top of their tank
They could've surrendered and watched all the movies they wanted in peace.
The Russian military is so depleted that they take 3 undermanned battalions to form one full-strength battalion (https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-few-troops-left-one-134417841.html)
A full-strength battalion is around 600-800 troops, so that's like 200-300 left in those undermanned battalions.
And of course, losing around 2/3 of your troops represents serious losses.
Good news for Russian forces.
They've learned to successfully intercept HIMARS strikes with their S-300 anti-air systems.
Specifically, it was struck and destroyed by a HIMARS strike (https://mobile.twitter.com/factsdocs/status/1551215095669219331). :P
This particular system had allegedly been jury-rigged to fire on ground targets, like hospitals and kindergartens. Good riddance.
Ukraine strikes bridges near Kherson, isolating it from reinforcements (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_on_the_way_to_complete_russian_army_isolation_near_kherson_all_bridges_are_struck-3664.html)
In general, there appears to be a lot of recent activity along the southern front.
(https://i.redd.it/v0c6blht6kd91.png)
While it's still too early to know for sure, it appears that Ukraine is gearing up for a major counterattack with the aim of liberating Kherson.
Ukrainian officials are on record saying it'll be liberated in September (https://www.barrons.com/news/ukraine-s-kherson-region-to-be-liberated-from-russia-by-september-official-01658666407?tesla=y)or earlier.
Russian SPG ruptured while firing (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russian_2s7m_malka_self_propelled_gun_self_destructed_while_firing_at_positions_of_ukrainian_soldiers_photo-3667.html)
This corroborates with Russians complaining about their inaccurate artillery fire and Ukrainian forces finding noticeably off-center bore on a captured artillery piece:
(https://i.postimg.cc/7qrJZc3m/Have-A-Look-At-This-Barrel-From-A-Russian-BMP-Picture-By-Ukrainians.jpg)
Perun talked about this, and I'll try to sum up as best I can. Bear in mind that I'm no expert, I'm simply a guy fascinated by this stuff and trying to relay what experts have said in a way that's understandable to everyone.
Artillery can become damaged from overuse - there are only so many shells it can fire before parts have to be repaired or replaced. Obviously, Russia has opted not to repair or replace anything, so damage has accumulated and now some artillery barrels are starting to warp. This warping makes artillery shots increasingly inaccurate, sometimes even causing a catastrophic failure like that poor SPG.
Because Russia has been firing something like three times as frequently as Ukraine (with notably less accuracy, even when the barrels were undamaged) this problem is affecting them first. (Canada shipped some replacement artillery barrels to Ukraine for this exact reason (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/canada-send-c9-mln-replacement-barrels-howitzer-guns-ukraine-2022-06-15/))
This is amazing news for Ukraine because they've been fighting a series of artillery duels with Russian forces and well, if the other side literally can't hit the broad side of a barn, it's pretty easy to predict the winner of these duels.
Russia has two options: 1) Keep firing with much less effectiveness 2) withdraw damaged artillery and repair/replace. Either option gives Ukraine a significant advantage.
Not saying the Russians don't have maintenance issues, but the barrel in the picture didn't get that way through damage or overuse. It was manufactured like that. Technically a non-concentric bore shouldn't really have much effect on accuracy, but I guess it could under heavy use if the metal heated unevenly causing warping.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on July 25, 2022, 07:52:09 AMNot saying the Russians don't have maintenance issues, but the barrel in the picture didn't get that way through damage or overuse. It was manufactured like that. Technically a non-concentric bore shouldn't really have much effect on accuracy, but I guess it could under heavy use if the metal heated unevenly causing warping.
Yep, by the third round I doubt they could even continue to hit that apartment building.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 25, 2022, 01:14:08 AMRussian SPG ruptured while firing (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russian_2s7m_malka_self_propelled_gun_self_destructed_while_firing_at_positions_of_ukrainian_soldiers_photo-3667.html)
This corroborates with Russians complaining about their inaccurate artillery fire and Ukrainian forces finding noticeably off-center bore on a captured artillery piece:
(https://i.postimg.cc/7qrJZc3m/Have-A-Look-At-This-Barrel-From-A-Russian-BMP-Picture-By-Ukrainians.jpg)
Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality.
Ukrainian forces gain fire control over logistics routes in Kherson region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3536302-ukraine-army-gains-fire-control-over-russian-forces-logistics-routes-in-kherson-region.html)
I'm not quite sure what exactly that means, but I'm guessing it means they're positioned so that they can easily fire on anything coming in or out using the roads.
If so, that's a huge tactical advantage. Russian logistics were already fraught before HIMARS and before they had Ukrainian forces breathing down their necks in the Kherson region. If they keep up the pressure, there's no way invader forces can hold their position for long.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on July 25, 2022, 07:52:09 AMNot saying the Russians don't have maintenance issues, but the barrel in the picture didn't get that way through damage or overuse. It was manufactured like that. Technically a non-concentric bore shouldn't really have much effect on accuracy, but I guess it could under heavy use if the metal heated unevenly causing warping.
Correct. I realized that a little too late after posting.
That one's not damaged, just manufactured in such a fugly way that it could be easily misinterpreted as defective. Definitely a testament to Russian craftanship.
Ukraine considers Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul to be Putin propagandists (https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-rand-paul-placed-list-russian-propagandists-ukraine-1727831)
In this conflict, there are those who stand for democracy and Ukraine and those who stand for dictatorship and Russia.
Sanctions that bite (https://www.axios.com/2022/07/26/russia-sanctions-economic-impact)
Quotethe official Russian statistics are lies.
surprised_pikachu.jpg
QuoteRussian imports have largely collapsed," the paper says — creating massive supply shortages and denying the country crucial parts and technologies.
"Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill."
Foreign companies that have left Russia account for 40% of Russian GDP, the author wrote, almost none of which is going to come back any time soon.
I've heard the economic toll of sanctions described as roughly equivalent to the worst days of covid.
And despite Russia continuing to make comsiderable sums of money on oil and gas (for now), the service sector has really taken a beating. Tourism is an obvious example.
QuoteRussia has announced further cuts in its supply of natural gas to Europe. But the paper makes the case that Russia needs Europe to buy its natural gas more than Europe needs Russian natural gas to buy.
I've been saying this for months! Putin is cutting off his nose to spite his face
Russian morale continues to deteriorate, troops desert posts (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-troops-deserting-posts-kyiv-uses-us-weapons-1727916)
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 26, 2022, 02:19:46 PMUkraine considers Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul to be Putin propagandists (https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-rand-paul-placed-list-russian-propagandists-ukraine-1727831)
In this conflict, there are those who stand for democracy and Ukraine and those who stand for dictatorship and Russia.
The worst part is that... 20% of the time, they are so damn right on important issues that seriously need to be pointed out and no one else does... but then the other 80% is just complete nutjob bullshit that discredits everything else they say just by being associated with them.
Maybe that's the objective though - because if normal people are seen saying it then it suddenly is harder to dismiss.
This is from March, so this isn't recent news, but it was quite a fascinating read nonetheless: Ukrainian farmers capture Russian troops (https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-farmers-captured-russian-squad-162600510.html) (including turncoats from 2014)
Essentially, the Ukrainian farmers/civilians knew the Russians were coming and gathered what few weapons they had and met the Russians in force. The Russians saw that they were outnumbered 50 to 11 and eventually concluded that fighting would not have a favorable outcome. So they surrendered.
What they didn't know was that most of the civilians were unarmed. No backsies!
Quote"They were livid once they saw we were unarmed," Vanzhula recalled.
Amid diplomatic spat with Russia, Israel to expand assistance to Ukraine (https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-diplomatic-spat-with-russia-israel-to-expand-assistance-to-ukraine/)
US accelerates military aid to Ukraine, including more HIMARS and precision ammo (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/us-accelerates-delivery-of-weapons-to-ukraine-pentagon/)
Ukraine strikes Antonivskyi Bridge, as well as a parallel bridge, further isolating invader forces in Kherson (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-antonivskyi-bridge-essential-russian-supply-lines-occupied-kherson/)
The bridge is technically still standing, but it has huge holes running through it to the point that vehicles can no longer cross.
Russian troops have rough time in Kherson (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/27/7360371/)
Ukrainan forces destroy a recon drone, shoot down a suicide drone (it was targetting a Ukrainian radar station), blow up an ammo depot, a tank, a few howitzers, some vehicles, and 89 troops.
Oh, and the cherry on top is that the invaders shot down their own attack helicopter (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/27/7360369/).
QuoteRussian air defence has never been particularly known for its accuracy, so the invaders shot down only one out of their three Ka-52 attack helicopters."
The Ukrainians really know how to add insult to injury! The previous article called it a "gesture of goodwill", after the Russian abandonment of Snake Island due to intense bombardment by Ukrainian forces.
Poland fundraises a Bayraktar for Ukraine, the company donates the drone for free.
If this sounds familiar, this is like the third or fourth time this has happened.
Ukraine destroys an ammo depot in Chornobaivka (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/28/7360574/)
This is sonething like the 50th time Ukrainians have blown up Russians there. A newborn baby could figure out the pattern, yet Russian brass can't and sends their cannon fodder there anyway.
United Russia reps flee Kherson (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1552764626957471745?t=fN2RJOpG8aqHJOqrVgLI8w&s=34)
They are Putin Party members who create propaganda for Putin and tried to create a fake referredumn for Kherson to join Russia (which hit a slight snag when the general in charge of that was blown up) They're the scum of the earth.
Reportedly, some Rosgvardia (Putin's private army) troops also fled.
However, the grunts are stuck and bitterly complained on an intercepted phone call (lol are they ever going to encrypt their calls?) that Kadyrovites (Pro-Putin Chechens) are positioned to shoot them if they try to escape.
The simple solution is to just shoot the Kadyrovites and leave. Or even simpler, just surrender at the first opportunity. We'll see.
I'll spare everyone the graphic details, but the Russians released a video of mutilating of a Ukrainian pow. They're apparently proud of that.
The Ukrainians pieced together the identity of the war criminal and he's essentially signed his own death warrant.
More civilians were killed in a rocket attack. Also, Russians have been torturing and killing POWs, including some from Avoz (some were released in prisoner exchanges months ago, so some made it out relatively unscathed while others weren't so fortunate)
Russia is definitely going for war crimes bingo. Any dealings with them whatsoever in the future will be under the shadow of the grim reality that these people are monsters who mutilate and torture and kill for fun.
With that in mind, the Senate has urged the State Department to declare that Russia is a state sponsor of terror.
Also, it looks like Ukraine might get those 300km-range HIMARS missiles after all. Mad Vlad and his torture buddies are making that a reality as we speak.
And the rock cried out, no hiding place: Avoz announces special hunt for war criminals who massacred POWs (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/29/7360846/)
QuoteI, on behalf of the Azov units, announce a hunt for everyone involved in the mass murder. Every rank-and-file actor and every organiser, regardless of their position and location, will bear responsibility. Wherever you hide, you will be found and exterminated."
Bonne chance, morceaux de merde.
Meanwhile, on the battlefield: Ukrainian forces operating in southern Ukraine destroy the following (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553188343944548354?s=20&t=k2s5FAumHQU2-nwx7FyNpA):
* 105 Russian troops
* 7 tanks
* a howitzer
* 2 self-propelled artillery
* 17 armored and military vehicles
* two ammunition depots
Z-Scum keep walking: Latvia requires Russians crossing the border to sign document condemning the invasion (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553168791550541824)
This is for security reasons as the pro-genocide Russians present much more of a security threat than the anti-genocide ones.
Active fires in Ukraine (used to get a broad idea of where the fighting is taking place)
(https://preview.redd.it/67jjaxjxene91.png?width=1513&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b64523def391a42677e688c533709853bae75a1)
As you can see, temporarily-occupied territory near Kherson is getting pummeled.
Two of Russia's top pilots killed by HIMARS strikes (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-fighter-pilots-killed-us-donated-himars-2022-7)
Lost the battle, lost the war: Russian POW calls wife, wife says to call back after work (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1553296010272800771)
Even Doctors Without Borders can't mend that broken heart 💔
HIMARS strike destroys 40-vehicle convoy sent from Crimea to reinforce Kherson (https://mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1553714116702789633)
They were going the wrong way. Should've traveled from Crimea to Russia and lived while they had the chance.
200 Russian Marines from the Black Sea fleet demonstrated their humanity and refused to fight in Putin's War (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3540699-intelligence-report-200-russian-marines-defy-orders-refuse-to-redeploy-in-ukraine.html)
They were supposed to be part of a new battalion operating in southern Ukraine. The battalion formed anyway, it just took longer and they used much less experienced, capable troops instead. Now, these rookies will almost certainly be dead idiots soon and the smart, humane Russians are far more likely to live. Such is the way of this war.
Bunker-baby Putin draws plans to flee Russia if/when invasion fails (https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/vladimir-putin-preparing-plans-for-evacuation-if-ukraine-overcomes-his-troops-in-war-that-has-lasted-162-days-so-far/news-story/7c098576968f205292763fe4cbe84052)
Quote"Defeat in the war for the President of Russia will mean the end of his power and the regimen as a whole," Telegram account General CVR wrote, citing tip offs from "retired and active intelligence agents".
Last week the same account reported the dictator suffered from "severe nausea" that saw a him treated for three hours by a team of doctors who rush to his bedside.
Since then, a new report has claimed "Putin himself and his entourage are preparing plans for evacuation from Russia" in search for refuge if his war failed.
Four ally countries would be on the cards for the Russian President should he flee.
Belarus, who Putin shares a close friendship with its President Alexander Lukashenko, Myanmar, Venezuela, Syria and possibly Iran
Repeating history, Nazis flee to South America.
As for Putin, maybe his people catch wind of his plans and give him an upside down view of Moscow, similar to his pal Mussolini.
Who knows what dark fate awaits dictators who ruin countless lives - Ukrainian and Russian - for fun? But we can always hope.
He has a ready room at Mar A Lago. 8^D
Update to HIMARS strike on 40 vehicles
It wasn't a convoy, the vehicles were being transfered by rail. The train was hit, destroying the vehicles.
80 dead orcs, over 200 wounded. 🌻🌻🌻
Swift and brutal justice: torturer who mutilated a Ukrainian pow has reportedly been killed (https://mobile.twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1553762859087175681).
No quarter, no mercy, no pity.
(https://i.redd.it/n5eyojhjn8e91.jpg)
Ukrainian intelligence obtains names/addresses of everyone involved in the Kherson fake referendum (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/1/7361273/)
Knock, knock.
Ukrainian marines capture 11 russian soldiers in the Kherson region after a successful battle (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3541252-ukrainian-marines-capture-11-russians-in-kherson-region.html)
Russia being russia roundup:
Russian state media lies again and says it destroyed a HIMARS (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1554053818396151811?s=21&t=zSJRHIw94OiRzyGw0nfIdg). They claim it was on the second floor of a power plant. Did it take the stairs or the elevator? 🤔
Russian soldier tries to disarm a landmine by throwing a tire on it. It explodes and it looks like he takes shrapnel to his side, and he's seen trying to walk it off. Good luck with that.
Russia soldier records a TikTok from his tent and gets mortared at the end.
Lots of Darwin Award winners every day.
Desperation level: Russia
Russian forces fire artillery from power plant (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-fires-artillery-from-nuclear-plant-ukraine-cant-shoot-back-2022-8), knowing that Ukrainian forces will be reluctant to fire back
(Apparently that stuff about a HIMARS firing from the second floor of a power plant was just projection)
Ukraine receives 4 more HIMARS from US, 3 MLRS from Germany (https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-gets-more-us-german-rocket-launcher-systems-minister-2022-08-01/) (70km range)
QuoteMoscow has accused the West of dragging out the conflict by giving Ukraine more arms, and said the supply of longer-range weapons justifies Russia's attempts to expand control over more Ukrainian territory for its own protection.
Both of which are obvious lies recognizable by just about anyone.
Obviously, the Allies are trying to prevent Z-Axis from overrunning free Ukraine. If anything, HIMARS is bringing the slaughter (mostly of Ukranian civilians) to a relative standstill and it goes without saying that repelling the invaders is the only sure way to end the violence.
Secondly, Russian propagandists are injecting some serious copium and working with backwards logic if they think they can justify the February invasion with developments that happened months later. The West wouldn't dream of arming Ukraine with such potent weapons if they weren't credibly faced with genocide otherwise. If Russia sought peace, there would be no war and no HIMARS.
Terrified invader forces in Kherson scurry from house to house, dress up as civilians in bid to avoid certain death (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1554202893724549120?s=21&t=PwB_IFzIps5LGj2gVbVu3Q)
Run. And keep running.
Russian forces are creating "ghost bridges" in Ukraine (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-building-ghost-bridges-with-radar-reflectors-in-ukraine)
Essentially, these ghosts bridges are not functioning bridges but seem like real bridges on radar.
Unforunately for the invaders, HIMARS strikes are GPS guided, not radar guided. So this is a big fat waste of time and effort on their part. Real dunce cap stuff.
They used a similar tactic on the bridge between Crimea and Russia. It didn't do anything either. They also used a smoke machine to create a smokescreen. Not only did it not deter anything, it caused a car crash on the bridge.
Under a smokescreen, invaders blow up their own ammo cars (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/2/7361509/)
Quick order of events:
1) Train filled with military hardware and ammunition comes from Crimea to Kherson region
2) Russian troops deploy a smokescreen, thinking it will conceal their operation and hide them from attacks. (It doesn't, btw)
3) Something explodes. It's unclear how or why. Careless handling of explosives? Inept use of pyrotechnics to make the smokescreen? Rough seas?
4) Russians scatter and pee themselves, falsely believing that they're under attack (they are under surveillance, though). Train immediately departs back to Crimea, aborting the whole unloading operation.
5) Ukrainians look on at the resulting chaos and burning wreckage with a mixture of confusion and bemusement, presumably while listening to Yakety Sax.
Don't know about this new crew of yours. They seem a bit skittish. Probably shouldn't tell them what happened to the last crew.
Huge warehouse near Moscow burns down in mysterious fire (https://www.newsweek.com/fire-blaze-russian-warehouse-ozon-amazon-moscow-istra-video-1730465)
This happened months ago, but it's a helluva story (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1554918169478774786?t=n7qTibKW1wRoWWOKAo80Hg&s=19).
A 72-year-old pensioner/retiree wanted to join the Ukrainian military but was too old to join.
Well, when the inavders came by, he hit a Russian convoy (Kadyrovites, no less) with a RPG and grenades. Burned down a fuel truck. Really gave them hell.
This guy is old and way past his prime and even so, he's out there chewing bubble gum and blowing stuff up like a one-man army. And there are plenty of heroes just like him all over Ukraine. There is zero chance Russia can conquer a people with that sort of courage and grit.
Plenty of news lately. Hard to keep up.
Ukrainian forces attack column supplying ammo to invaders between Kharkiv and Russian border (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-military-hit-a-column-supplying-ammunition-to-the-invaders-near-the-border/)
Ukrainian forces destroy two ammo depots in Kherson region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3542709-ukraines-armed-forces-destroy-two-enemy-ammo-depots-in-kherson-region.html). They also damaged the rail line between Kherson and Crimea (https://mobile.twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1554726872491114496?s=21&t=bT2MBM_dhCT8KPfa-virkw)
Ukrainian marines set up an ambush against invaders, kill 15 and capture 3 (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/3/7361671/)
Pro-Russian killer who admitted to murdering civilians and enjoying it (real piece of work) was killed (https://www.ibtimes.com/pro-russian-fighter-korsa-who-enjoyed-killing-ukrainians-dies-combat-putin-makes-her-3597120). Dictactor Putin calls her a "hero" because he's also a real piece of work and has a similarly deranged fondness for cruelty. The two can be buried together for all I care.
Also, Ukrainian forces blew up an invader command post at Chornobayivka (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_troops_destroyed_russian_command_post_in_chornobayivka-3768.html)
If that sounds familiar, this happens so often that I have to check both the date and the time of day to make absolutely sure that I'm not confusing it with previous strikes.
Honestly, when Ukraine recaptures it, it's going to be a bit of a letdown because it's like whack-a-mole where the mole predictably only comes out of one hole.
Chornobayivka airport has been bombed so much that I'm half-convinced that the Russians just sleep in the craters, thinking that it's impossible for lightning to strike the same place twice.
Russian cruelties are inflicted on those who can't fight back, even in the Motherland
No onscreen violence, but mean af and difficult to watch. I can't put a spoiler tag on the video, so watch it or not at your own discretion.
Brainwashed soldier cluelessly recites known lies about Ukrainians. Bus driver is totally without common human decency. Bad scene all around.
Moral if the story: Don't put your life in the hands of brutes and inhuman scum who will use you as cannon fodder - who will take your life, your mind, your heart, and/or your legs, and then discard you at the earliest opportunity. Don't give yourselves to these unnatural men - machine men with machine minds and machine hearts! You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! Act like it!
My sweetheart always says if we can just get off that oil tit, all of these oily dictators will melt away. We are doing the math to put up solar panels for our studio/workshop. The breakeven for the house isn't so good (just because we are no spring chicks) unless the bill goes up some more.
That's not a silver bullet for dictators - North Korea for example does not produce oil in significant quantities.
But the general idea of democracies no longer funding dictatorships is a good start.
Another good one is diplomatic isolation. No UN committees coming their way, no permanent seat at the UN security council, no inclusion in defensive pacts or trading blocs, etc. Let them twist in the wind and see if these "strong men" are truly strong or simply parasites on much stronger states.
Quote from: Cassia on August 04, 2022, 09:38:55 PMMy sweetheart always says if we can just get off that oil tit, all of these oily dictators will melt away. We are doing the math to put up solar panels for our studio/workshop. The breakeven for the house isn't so good (just because we are no spring chicks) unless the bill goes up some more.
The manufacture of solar panels is quite petroleum intensive (not to mention the horrific waste from the mining of the materials), as is the refinement of uranium for fission power. The real solution is to live in a place where these things are not required. I remember sweating like a pig, in southern California as a kid. 100+ degree weather really stinks when one has NO air conditioning...even when it's a "dry heat". Not trying to be a party-pooper, just pointing out some facts. I am legit trying to figure out where to live without this threat. I suspect that there is no such place, without dependence on the system already in place, more's the pity.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on August 04, 2022, 10:40:50 PMI remember sweating like a pig, in southern California as a kid. 100+ degree weather really stinks when one has NO air conditioning...even when it's a "dry heat". Not trying to be a party-pooper, just pointing out some facts. I am legit trying to figure out where to live without this threat. I suspect that there is no such place, without dependence on the system already in place, more's the pity.
We have come to rely on AC, fast transportation, and petroleum products. It's very convenient. And it is because energy is cheap, even when gasoline cost more than $5/gallon, it's still dirt cheap, so we burn energy like there's no tomorrow and waste it, all the while adding carbon to the atmosphere.
Future generations, fuck off and die. But no one is going to "sweat like pig" today just so you can be comfortable later.
Ukrainian forces destroy 4 S-300 and a very rare air defense radar (https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukraines_military_hunted_down_four_russias_s_300_air_defense_systems_and_a_rare_9s19_imbir_air_surveillance_radar-3779.html)
This makes it much easier for Ukrainian forces to conduct air campaigns and shoot ballistic missiles at Russian positions in southern Ukraine.
Despite officially refusing Putin, Iran has handed over 46 drones to Putin (https://mobile.twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1555500399200817152?s=21&t=nHZq8oGG7_yN11OFp5aBsw), who is using them in Ukraine
A vehicle with 6 Russian officers and 5 soldiers was blown skyhigh by Ukrainian forces while moving. All KIA without a doubt.
A second vehicle was nearby and took the turn a little too hard and flipped over despite not being damaged (watching your comrades be annihilated next to you must be distracting). No idea what happened to them.
Ukraine's Air Force "Has No Information" about SU-25 Jets Sent by North Macedonia to Ukraine. (https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/5/7144511/)
"No idea what you're talking about", says spokesman in trench coat, glasses, and mustache
In Southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces destroy: (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1555756841828769792?s=20&t=117kunIIXIz3XjI-PqUFig)
6 ammunition depots
79 Russian troops
4 tanks
3 howitzers
22 armored/military vehicles
an artillery installation
a radar station
Impressive numbers. Substantial attrition as well as some nice strategic targets (ammo depots, radar, artillery installation)
Dead men walking: Putin recruits complete newbies to reinforce invasion (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3544612-russia-forming-3rd-army-corps-for-war-in-ukraine-isw.html)
18 to 50 without prior military experience, at least a middle school graduation (they'll take high school dropouts)
FNG Army, more like. Green af and dumb af, from the looks of it. I don't envy their chances.
The part that has me worried is that there are 15,000 of them. Even though Ukraine grinds through Russian forces fairly quickly, chewing through thousands of reinforcements takes a lot of time and prolongs this war.
Putin's been lying and saying that HIMARS is prolonging the war. But actually, these constant attempts to send more bodies to the front and eke out a win despite the special operation going spectacularly awry is what is actually prolonging the war.
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 06, 2022, 10:29:36 AMDead men walking: Putin recruits complete newbies to reinforce invasion (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3544612-russia-forming-3rd-army-corps-for-war-in-ukraine-isw.html)
18 to 50 without prior military experience, at least a middle school graduation (they'll take high school dropouts)
FNG Army, more like. Green af and dumb af, from the looks of it. I don't envy their chances.
The part that has me worried is that there are 15,000 of them. Even though Ukraine grinds through Russian forces fairly quickly, chewing through thousands of reinforcements takes a lot of time and prolongs this war.
Putin's been lying and saying that HIMARS is prolonging the war. But actually, these constant attempts to send more bodies to the front and eke out a win despite the special operation going spectacularly awry is what is actually prolonging the war.
Historically Russia has used the strategy of feeding their peasant-soldiers into the grinder to wage battles of attrition. Soviet casualties invading Finland in 1939 were over 300k vs 70k for the Finns. They are doing it again.
Russia released a bizarre commercial trying to attract people to Russia (the ones they haven't kidnapped), a country with a net negative population growth for entirely different reasons than say, Japan.
Among the "pros":
*
Cheap oil/gas (living in a petrostate, I should hope so)
*
Cheap goods (by western standards, but it's not like you can buy anything worthwhile - you can't buy a car with antilock brakes or a halfway decent computer or a plane ticket to practically anywhere in Europe)
*
Fertile soil (true only in very select portions of the country, this is misleading bordering on lying for a country notorious for vast swathes of barren land)
*
Beautiful women (here's where they lost me. Even assuming that's true, quite a few of them are pro-nazi and into torture now, brainwashed by state media. There's no hourglass figure in the world that can make up for that.
Also, couldn't help notice that nothing was said about the men...)
*
Cuisine (lol no)
*
Architechture, writers, history (also true of every single country on Earth)
*
Traditional Values, No "Cancel Culture" (What a weird way to say hopelessly backwards and bizarrely proud of it. And they absolutely do have a cancel culture. They just take your life, not your twitter account)
*
Vodka (probably the only legit selling point, but other countries make vodka too, so your mileage may vary)
*
Apply before winter! (Why? Are the winters bad or something?)
Cons:
Shaky economy, pervasive poverty, crippling sanctions, brain drain, madman dictator, kleptocracy, state sanctioned repression of minority groups, no freedom, no representation, no hope for the future, horrible beaches
For anyone having trouble figuring out which side is evil: one side regularly and enthusiastically engages in war crimes against POWs (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-atrocity-claim-image-appears-to-show-head-of-ukrainian-pow-stuck-on-a-pole-2022-8), the other gives POWs some warm tea, a phone to talk to their family, and a cot.
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 05, 2022, 07:37:15 PMUkraine's Air Force "Has No Information" about SU-25 Jets Sent by North Macedonia to Ukraine. (https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/5/7144511/)
"No idea what you're talking about", says spokesman in trench coat, glasses, and mustache
Update: Ukraine thanks NM for the tanks (https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-tanks-macedonia-thanks/31976738.html), mum on planes
Ukrainian Armed Forces destroy Russian Pantsir anti-air missile system and 4 S-300 anti-air missile systems in southern Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/7/7362198/)
On Aug 6th, they also destroyed a Russian 2A18 122 mm howitzer, a reconnaissance drone, several armoured and other vehicles, and an ammunition dump.
Invaders in Southern Ukraine are feeling the sting. Every day, they shed more hardware and their position gets weaker.
Russia has already burned through half of its resources in this war (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1556183695685476352?s=19), seriously degrading their ability to wage further war
(https://i.redd.it/nuaxskcze4g91.jpg)
So, they're ripe for attack. Let's get 'em.
Rumor has it that Ukraine *might* have HARM missiles (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/does-ukraine-now-have-agm-88-high-speed-anti-radiation-missiles).
Take this with not just a pinch of salt, but all the salt in the Black Sea. Until there's official confirmation, don't get your hopes up. That said...that'd be super cool.
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 08:53:04 AMRussia has already burned through half of its resources in this war (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1556183695685476352?s=19), seriously degrading their ability to wage further war
(https://i.redd.it/nuaxskcze4g91.jpg)
Seriously, what is Putin's endgame here? How much does he have to lose until he says, "You know what? This isn't worth it."
Who can evaluate the judgment of a madman? He's mad, and we aren't. This cuts completely through humanity- we just don't understand crazy. We see the results, though.
Quote from: Blackleaf on August 07, 2022, 09:48:46 PMSeriously, what is Putin's endgame here? How much does he have to lose until he says, "You know what? This isn't worth it."
He needs to catch a showing of "My American Cousin"
Quote from: Blackleaf on August 07, 2022, 09:48:46 PMSeriously, what is Putin's endgame here? How much does he have to lose until he says, "You know what? This isn't worth it."
Imagine you're a ruthless dictator for a second. You climbed your way to the top over a mountain of corpses. Everyone is scared shitless of you. Your state media tells the masses that the country and its fearless leader are strong. Every advisor you talk to - people who grew up on said media - tells you that you're amazing, your army is top notch, and the enemy is weak. (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-dictator-trap-russia-ukraine/627064/)
All you have to do is send more troops, send in some Wunderwaffe (like terminator tanks or hypersonic missiles), and intensify forward firepower/artillery. The enemy's lines will break any second now, and then it's just a swift mop-up operation and then Kyiv surrenders. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking)
Besides, so many soldiers have died already, we can't let their sacrifice be in vain (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost). And more importantly, if you botch this, there's no apology tour, you're a deadman. Autocrats die when the public realizes that they're incompetent, so they must never know. That's why communications and media are so tightly controlled in autocracies, it's why Putin went to great lengths to pretend to be a shirtless manly man, it's why dead soldiers are cremated at occupied cities and not returned home for burial, and it's why no one from Moscow is getting drafted.
Would you tell the world that you've lost and put your life on the line?
Ukrainian HIMARS eliminates more than 100 Russian soldiers and their equipment in Melitopol (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3545711-ukrainian-army-eliminates-more-than-100-russian-soldiers-and-their-equipment-in-melitopol.html)
It just so happens that the Russians relocated much of their air defense from Melitopol to Kherson last week and therefore was unusually vulnerable. What a strange coincidence.
It would be a shame if they lost even more air defense, giving the Ukrainian air force and drones free reign to wipe the floor with them.
North of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces observed invaders unloading artillery ammo, ukrainian artillery blew the site skyhigh. (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/8/7362290/) A Russian special forces unit was also destroyed.
I'll say it again. I never expected Ukraine to last more than a week or two. And I'm still stunned by the inability of Russia to make progress. It's as if their purpose is no longer to gain control, but to just wreck as much stuff as they can.
I'll also say i imagined russia's economy to hav fully crashed by now.
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on August 09, 2022, 02:15:44 AMI'll also say i imagined russia's economy to hav fully crashed by now.
It hasn't crashed, but its GDP is expected to decrease 6% this year (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/russia-faces-economic-oblivion-despite-short-term-resilience.html), roughly equivalent to the financial drain at the height of the pandemic. If it was at peace, its GDP would be increasing by about 5% instead.
Mysterious fire erupts in oil storage facility in Russian city of Yeysk (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/oil-storage-facility-on-fire-in-russian-yeysk/)
I'm sure everyone has heard by now about the recent explosions in the Russian military base in Ukrainian Crimea.
Details were sparse at first. HIMARS? Partisans? Some experimental Ukrainian weapon? Rough seas? Today, we know with high certainty that it was actually the work of Ukrainan special forces (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/10/ukraine-russia-crimea-beach-blast/), apparently catching Russian forces totally unaware, since they only went to high alert after the attack, not before.
Russians said it was an accident (similar to how the sinking of their flagship was an accident) and that no one was injured. Risable.
They also said that no aircraft were damaged. There's footage of one military jet and it's a charred ruin except for the nose and some of the cockpit. I would imagine that qualifies as damage. In fact, 9 planes and many vehicles have been utterly destroyed (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-russian-warplanes-destroyed-crimea-blasts-88187762), an estimated loss of $1 billion. A costly loss that cannot be easily or quickly replaced.
Russians are fleeing Crimea, creating large traffic jams, apparently unaware until now that they live in an active warzone and that Ukrainian forces have publically expressed their desire to bomb the Kerch bridge and will do so whenever the opportunity arises.
Some Russians are upset about having to flee their homes in terror. I'm sure that Ukrainians, especially Ukrainians who just 8 years ago used to live in those homes, can relate.
There is no cause for concern. After hostilities are over, Russians could potentially once again enjoy Crimean beaches and the modern marvel of indoor plumbing, so long as they behave themselves. Can't blame a country for expelling murderers and rapists and returning to the civilized practice of being more selective about its visitors.
Russia has deployed state-of-the-art air defense to Crimea (https://mobile.twitter.com/na_intel/status/1557381938742263808)
Just kidding, they had a propagandist talk with a stack of empty barrels or inflatables or something in the background, which to the exceptionally uninformed might at first glance appear to be a S-300 air defense missile launcher.
(https://gagadget.com/media/cache/a9/d1/a9d1f0289e2ba550c911d514ede3191a.jpg)
One small difference: the real thing is a lot more rigid and doesn't sway in the breeze.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZzx1b7acAEj7fl?format=jpg&name=small)
Many of the real S-300 missile launchers are reportedly being moved closer to the front (https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/russians-moving-air-defense-systems-to-front-lines-adviser-to-mariupol-mayor.html), presumably to be used as jury-rigged artillery instead of proper anti-air units.
This might be a tacit admission on Moscow's part that their air defense is too weak to shoot down HIMARS or a ramping up of the ground conflict to inflict as much damage as they can, either spitefully or delusionally thinking that one last push will finally break through.
It would be such a shame if Ukraine exploited this tactical error and picked off enough of Russia's remaining air defense to allow for a much more intensive air campaign over russian positions.
Viral video that the reactive armor over at least one Russian tank is just filled with air and a thin strip of rubber (https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wl3e5e/the_dynamic_protection_of_the_captured_russian/)
Bear in mind that I'm not a tank expert or anything, but that's not normal. No wonder these things are getting brewed up and/or jack-in-the-box'ed. That rubber won't do squat.
Russian army near Kherson panicking, starts to evacuate invader military families (https://www.ibtimes.com/russian-army-panic-starts-mass-deportation-family-members-after-successful-ukraine-attack-3599981)
I have no idea why these people thought it was a good idea to bring their families to an active warzone. Perhaps they were a tad too confident in their chances. Perhaps they were just stupid. Perhaps they wanted to show off the magical western toilets. Who knows. Now matter how the decision was made, they're starting to regret it. Ukraine is bringing down the hammer on these idiots, and if they have any sense at all, they'll leave with their families.
Russians tricked into fighting Ukraine (https://news.yahoo.com/massive-leak-reveals-russian-soldiers-181745668.html)
QuoteIn a lengthy complaint, the girlfriend of a soldier from the central city of Ulyanovsk pleaded with prosecutors to help her find her boyfriend she suspects may have been taken prisoner despite the fact that charred remains found outside Kyiv were identified as his.
The woman said her boyfriend's parents would not share burial documents with her or offer DNA samples, apparently because they were happy to receive a hefty compensation for a soldier killed in action.
"They don't want to try to find their son among PoWs or those gravely injured. They're happy with the compensation," she wrote.
"We have no idea who we buried."
W. T. F.
In southern Ukraine, Ukraine Army destroys over 40 invaders, three howitzers, arms depot, command post (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3547911-south-ukraine-army-destroys-over-40-invaders-three-howitzers-arms-depot-command-post.html)
After losing its best fighter jets to "rough seas", Russia turns to severely outdated replacements (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-loses-24-its-best-fighter-jets-turns-obsolete-planes-ukraine-1732984)
They're replacing these Su-35 jets (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-35):
(https://bulgarianmilitary.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/4.5-Gen-Su-35-on-SEAD-mission-was-shot-down-over-Ukraine-by-SAM-4.jpg)
(probably not the most glamourous shot, but whatevs)
With these Su-24 jets (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-24):
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZt2FDpd4El5pUWEPkx0GfMxqA4TGT1oMM1xAqThHC0nkPFjM&s)
I hope they're ready to bulk order those civilian GPS devices. Gonna need 'em!
Caught em napping: Z sleeps in, wakes up in Ukrainian hands (https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkRid89403375/status/1558057106175033344)
Now he'll have plenty of time to sleep in to his heart's content. Plus, he'll live through this conflict. Imo, the Ukrainians did him a favor.
Burn baby burn: Ukraine releases footage of strike against a Russian Grad multiple rocket launcher and ammo burning up (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/12/7362989/)
You can see the rocket launcher firing wildly as its ammo ignites before it's finally consumed in an inferno.
Slava Ukrayini!
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 12, 2022, 01:52:42 PMBurn baby burn: Ukraine releases footage of strike against a Russian Grad multiple rocket launcher and ammo burning up (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/12/7362989/)
You can see the rocket launcher firing wildly as its ammo ignites before it's finally consumed in an inferno.
Slava Ukrayini!
I wonder if the drone (I assume) taking that crazy footage also provided fire control and/or initial targeting?
Quote from: Cassia on August 12, 2022, 04:41:05 PM I wonder if the drone (I assume) taking that crazy footage also provided fire control and/or initial targeting?
Almost certainly.
I talked to an ex-military person about that bizzare captured-while napping video.
Sleeping in the middle of the afternoon. No sentries. No booby traps. Alone. Bright red sleeping bag in the middle of the forest. It seems too good to be true and too incompetent to be believable.
He insists that the soldier essentially gave up and then intentionally created the conditions that would lead to his capture. It's a surrender with plausible deniability.
In very minor news with long-term importance, Ukrainian schools will stop teaching Russian entirely. They will also bolster their English curriculum and prioritize English as their go-to for international communications, their linga franca so to speak.
US officials say 500 Russian troops are killed/wounded in Ukraine every day (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/11/us/politics/russian-casualties-ukraine.html)
They had 190,000 troops at the start of the invasion and >40,000 have been killed according to Ukraine. 150,000 divided by 500...carry the one...that's less than a year's worth of troops, though obviously there have been reinforcements and it's not like militaries continue to function after their numbers drop super low, etc. So don't quote me on the specifics.
The point is, Russian losses are completely unsustainable and not only can Russia mathematically not conquer Ukraine, it will not be able to hold onto territories it has conquered.
Ukrainian figures are a bit trickier since they aren't as well known, but we do know that they have been high though less than Russian casualties. Somewhere between 100-200 killed per day.
But thanks to HIMARS and other weapon systems pouring in, Ukrainian casualties have dropped sharply, down to about 30 killed per day (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550589746879123457).
That's a HUGE difference! And while obviously, any casualties at all is bad, Ukraine's military is faring much better than Russia's.
Ukraine is winning this war of attrition.
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 13, 2022, 10:19:36 AMUS officials say 500 Russian troops are killed/wounded in Ukraine every day.... (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/11/us/politics/russian-casualties-ukraine.html)
That's about the same number of Americans dying of Covid every day right now. Probably under reported, especially here in Floriduh. Almost everyone here has decided it is over. Even at my dentist office. If I die now, I'm gonna be pissed.
Russia is drafting a new tactic for countering HIMARS (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-new-himars-tactic-ukraine-war-oleksiy-danilov-1733047)
Destroying the weapons platforms? Nyet.
Intercepting the missiles? Nyet.
Destroying western arms shipments en route? Nyet.
BETTER.
Are you ready for the sheer tactical genius I'm about to lay on you? Well, fasten the seatbelts on your Lada, because there are no antilock brakes on this ride!
Their latest tactical genius move is...*drumroll* don't bunch up so much
A 10-year-old korean boy playing Starcraft could tell you that!
These people are the laughingstocks of the whole world!
Steven Seagal visits destroyed Ukrainian prison in support of Kremlin
Seagal, who supported Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea in Ukraine's south, was later granted Russian citizenship by President Vladimir Putin. Seagal was appointed as Russia's special envoy to the U.S. in 2018.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/steven-seagal-visits-destroyed-ukrainian-155522168.html
(http://i.imgur.com/s63NFXr.png)
Quote from: Cassia on August 13, 2022, 12:28:44 PMSteven Seagal visits destroyed Ukrainian prison in support of Kremlin
More like washed-up actor and Putin toadie transported to war crimes site to broadcast propaganda in favor of the killers and criminals.
I saw a video where the Russians drove a tank down a road
alone (combined arms, infantry support, what's that?) and wouldn't you know it, the tank got one-shotted by artillery or an anti-tank weapon or something. It's difficult to tell exactly what happened. One moment, the tank was there, the next it was the world's most expensive BBQ grill.
And I got to thinking, wtf were they trying to do with that solitary tank? It makes no sense.
Apparently, they were doing what's called a probing action, trying to search through enemy territory looking for enemy forces, then retreat when there's trouble. On paper, that makes sense. In reality, not so much.
A lot of things have changed in the world since 1945. Russia is fighting an enemy that has eyes in the sky 24/7, we're talking spy satellites, air recon, drone recon from drones build specifically for them, enough night vision goggles to start a Splinter Cell cosplay battallion, and a smorgasbord of advanced weapons from over a dozen countries to bring the hammer down on whatever they find. Probing actions won't cut it.
Russian tactics used to work well...decades and decades ago. Or against an enemy with subpar equipment and no intel.
The simple fact is that Russia cannot win against a near-peer adversary on a modern battlefield.
(https://i.redd.it/03wm7qqcvph91.jpg)
A picture is worth a thousand words, but I'll settle for grid coordinates.
It got hit, btw (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1558881161727942656). Just a "gesture of goodwill" from humanity to the crimes against humanity folks. Gotta plant those seeds. Hopefully, they'll take root.
Edit - their address was in one of the group photos, lol. Say cheese!
Cheapskate Dictator Putin fails to pay reservists and civilian laborers in Ukraine (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-fails-to-pay-military-reservists-civilian-laborers-brought-into-ukraine/ar-AA10EEZZ)
Expect work to mirror pay.
Ukrainians shoot down two Russian Ka-52 helicopters over the past 2 days (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/14/7363188/)
$15 million a pop. Rough weekend for Putin.
Russian reaction to looming revocation of visas (https://mobile.twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1558822289701044227)
They're taking it well.
Deep breaths, guys. One-two-three-HIMARS. Four-Five-Slava-Ukraine.
Wagner bodies litter battlefield (https://www.ibtimes.com/dead-bodies-alleged-russian-mercenaries-litter-battlefield-after-encounter-ukraine-army-report-3601827)
This happened at Bakmut, unrelated to the recent destruction of the Wagner HQ in Popasna, where Russian forces leaked their own coordinates and were then hit with a HIMARS strike.
Quotetheir uniforms allegedly bore "green armbands with Arab signs" as well as Grim Reaper patches with the slogan, "I don't believe in anything. I'm here for violence,"
Well, they got what they wanted. Enough to last a lifetime.
QuoteMembers of the Wagner Group are neither elite forces nor well-trained commandos, but are instead "just another sort of cannon fodder," according to Russian military expert Pavel Luzin.
"They are after money. And they die for money. We haven't seen any advanced tactics from them," a Ukrainian soldier told RFE/RL
Oof.
The sort of helmets that Russian soldiers use:
I've seen football helmets that offered more protection.
This guy could punch it a couple of times and badly deform it. What do you think a bullet will do to it?
I wonder if sales for Putin's state vodka are slipping...
(https://products2.imgix.drizly.com/ci-putinka-soft-vodka-3c0b55ffb5fc6325.png?auto=format%2Ccompress&ch=Width%2CDPR&fm=jpg&q=20)
Andrii Yermak
Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine:
(https://i.redd.it/bvrc8cjgexh91.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/VIP4Dbz_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
Ammo depot in Crimea goes boom (https://www.newsweek.com/video-russian-depot-crimea-fire-large-explosions-ukraine-1733913)
Russian officials said the blasts were "localized" and "under control", adding that "no one was seriously injured" and that they don't know what caused the fire.
And I'm watching the footage and it looks like a Godzilla movie. Quite the opposite of localized and under control. Someone definitely got injured. And it was definitely not an accident.
Blasts rock temporarily-occupied Melitopol, Russian TV cut off (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/16/7363427/)
QuoteFedorov said that "however hard the Russian propaganda is trying to 'brainwash' our residents, they can't make much progress".
He added that the residents of Melitopol are holding the city's defence and the local resistance is "destroying everything that the Ruscists bring".
My brother shared with me war footage of a Russian vehicle driving between two other destroyed Russian vehicles. These were fresh kills, still on fire. This genius drives right between them and BOOM! landmine.
Who could have guessed??!
Airbase in Crimea goes boom (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/16/7363483/)
There sure are a lot of careless smokers today!
Russian propagandist goes boom (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/16/7363451/)
She died of her injuries from a landmine. Specifically, a butterfly mine (https://www.indiatimes.com/explainers/news/what-are-butterfly-mines-is-russia-using-them-against-ukraine-577136.html), the sorts of mines that Russia has indiscriminately used throughout Ukraine, a country that Russia says it wishes to protect.
So it's highly likely that this is a literal case of being hoist by one's own petard.
Scary "new" Russian weapons platform is just a toy robot dog with a rocket launcher strapped to it (https://www.newsweek.com/deadly-war-robot-showcased-russia-actually-pet-dog-bot-1733997?amp=1)
Quotethe robot dog is a modified "Go1 bot made by the Chinese company Unitree Robotics" which is "essentially a toy".
QuoteAccording to its manufacturers, Go1 bot can carry a maximum weight of three kilograms (6.6 pounds).
The Insider reports this means it can carry an RPG-26 launcher as seen in the video, but not one loaded with a rocket as this pushes the weight up to 4.7 kilograms (10.4 pounds).
It can't even use the rocket launcher. Who designed this thing, Todd Howard?
QuoteIt is also unable to operate on rough or wet terrain and is vulnerable to hacking.
So, basically useless.
(https://www.i-programmer.info/images/stories/News/2021/jun/A/unitreego1.JPG)
Jesus Fuck.
Russian officials refuse to work in Ukraine despite offers of double pay (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-officials-refusing-work-ukraine-double-pay-1733764)
Cheapskate Dictator probably wouldn't make good on the offer, anyway.
Russian geniuses accidentally geotag another HQ (https://mobile.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1559817046413742080)
If you ever feel useless, just be glad that you're not camo netting on a russian field HQ.
Edit - it went boom yesterday (https://www.newsweek.com/blast-may-have-killed-100-russian-soldiers-occupied-luhansk-governor-1734275), estimated 100 casualties. Dum-dums don't live long in Ukraine.
Russian base in Nova Kakhovka (Kherson region) goes boom (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/17/7363654/)
Russian soldier has second thoughts about Ukraine war (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/i-dont-see-justice-in-this-war-russian-soldier-exposes-rot-at-core-of-ukraine-invasion)
QuoteAs frustrations grew on the front, he wrote about reports of soldiers deliberately shooting themselves in order to escape the front and collect 3 million roubles (£40,542) in compensation, as well as rumours of acts of mutilation against captured soldiers and corpses.
In the interview, he said he had not personally seen the acts of abuse carried out during the war. But he described a culture of anger and resentment in the army that tears down the facade of total support for the war portrayed in Russian propaganda.
Do you guys remember this legendary speech (https://twitter.com/y_gudymenko) to the invading Russians very early on in the war?
His name is Yuriy Gudymenko (https://twitter.com/y_gudymenko) (it varies somewhat in print due to different romanizations of his name). He is still alive. He was badly wounded in June, but he's alive and well.
His video, very early in the war, correctly predicted that Bayraktars would prove nightmarish for the Russian invaders and his overall optimistic tone didn't fit the predictions on that day (the general assumption was that Ukraine would be swiftly defeated) but it does fit the present. Truly amazing how things can change in 6 months.
(https://img.etimg.com/thumb/width-640,height-480,imgsize-70174,resizemode-1,msid-89631192/small-biz/entrepreneurship/satellites-are-generating-tonnes-of-data-in-space-beaming-it-back-to-earth-is-a-problem/istock-182062885.jpg)
We're always watching: Ukraine to receive new satellite data (https://defence-blog.com/iceye-signs-%D1%81ontract-to-provide-ukrainian-military-with-access-to-its-database-of-satellite-images/)
QuoteICEYE will transfer full capabilities of one of its SAR satellites already in orbit for the Government of Ukraine's use over the region. The SAR satellite will be operated by ICEYE. In addition, ICEYE will provide access to its constellation of SAR satellites, allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to receive radar satellite imagery on critical locations with a high revisit frequency.
These satellites can peer through clouds to boot! Expect a large and sustained influx of Russian base/depot destruction. It's HIMARS o'clock!
When all you have is a hammer: Putin pins hopes on organized crime organization to win war (https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-calls-in-organized-crime-syndicate-to-shake-up-failing-army-in-ukraine)
QuoteNearly six months into Russia's bloody war against Ukraine, it appears Vladimir Putin has pinned his hopes for claiming victory on a self-described "organized crime syndicate" that is now trawling prisons for cold-blooded killers and deploying mercenaries to straighten out fed-up troops.
QuotePrighozhin had visited personally on July 24 and told inmates the regular Russian military was "weakening" and "cannot cope" with the war.
Have they tried copium? :P
Quote"I'm not afraid to say, we're an organized crime group [referring to Wagner Group] that helps the Russian army," another inmate, Alexei, quoted Prighozin as saying.
QuoteHe went on to say that, after talking to more people outside of prison about the war, he'd learned no one was getting paid the compensation they were promised and that it was all really just a "meat grinder."
Desperate. Very desperate.
After cigarette-related explosions in Crimea, Russia redploys its remaining aircraft (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-urgently-redeploys-aircraft-and-helicopters-after-crimean-explosions-defense-intelligence/)
Some deploy deeper in Ukrainian Crimea (won't help), many redeploy within Russian borders (helps a lot, provided they stay there)
The part that gets me is that Ukraine both knows and reveals what's going where, which is a power move if I've ever seen one.
The Ukrainians know what's going where, who's flying them, how many times a week they take a shower (trick question, it's twice a month), and their heart rate when these guys hear the word HIMARS. They're terrified, as they should be, because their airbase could be next.
Ammo depot goes boom in Belogrod (https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560322642888081411)
Everyone's favorite Russian region, voted most flammable 6 months and counting.
No intel for you: Ukraine destroys invader satellite communications system in the southern front (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/18/7363831/)
Apparently also bagged an ammo depot. Must be a day that ends in a y.
The surprise to me is the complete lack of Russian air superiority.
Quote from: Cassia on August 18, 2022, 02:54:06 PMThe surprise to me is the complete lack of Russian air superiority.
Both sides deployed some serious AA early into the war (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-struggling-against-own-weapons-in-ukraine-us-general-says-2022-6) and the air force now has to either stick to friendly territory or fly dangerously close to the ground to avoid being shot down. Curiously, the Russians haven't made destroying AA a high priority. Definitely a mistake. Hopefully, Ukraine gets a chance to clear out enough Russian AA to fly in relative safety.
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 05:39:07 PMBoth sides deployed some serious AA early into the war (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-struggling-against-own-weapons-in-ukraine-us-general-says-2022-6) and the air force now has to either stick to friendly territory or fly dangerously close to the ground to avoid being shot down. Curiously, the Russians haven't made destroying AA a high priority. Definitely a mistake. Hopefully, Ukraine gets a chance to clear out enough Russian AA to fly in relative safety.
I remember Desert Storm when the US destroyed most of Saddam's anti-air, control, communications, and aircraft on the first few nights. The CNN reporters watched from the hotel balcony. All I heard about this time was that the Russians launched a giant artillery barrage. Just like WW2, LOL.
Desert Storm was probably the most well-planned and well-executed military operation the past 40 years. So that's a high bar to clear.
Russia must've thought they could use paratroopers (VDV) to capture strategic sites, take cities quickly or bypass them entirely, and force Kyiv to surrender within just a few days. Man, were they in for a surprise!
Btw, the US warned Ukraine about Hostomel. The Ukrainians might've predicted such a move as well, because they had rapid response units paste those paratroopers and retake those airfields quickly.
Russian drone shot down, contains footage of their own base. RIP (https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1560516212383162373)
At this point, they might as well just send Ukraine letters with group photos and ID attached.
(https://i.redd.it/8mn1v9cubni91.jpg)
400 in one day, an unusually high deathtoll for the Ruscists. Usually, it's in the high 100s or low 200s. Someone must've commenced a special smoking operation near something combustible.
Edit - apparently at least 200 of the deaths (https://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-army-strongly-repulsed-russian-offensive-forcing-them-retreat-taramchuk-vodyane-3603622) can be attributed to failed (as usual) advances on Ukrainian battle lines. What's unusual is that they received abnormally heavy losses in these advances. I suppose Ukrainian intel, marksmanship, and/or weapons are improving.
Ukraine destroys 4 S-300 AA systems and a radar station along the Southern front (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/russia_lost_four_s_300_air_defense_systems_and_a_radar_station_in_the_south_of_ukraine_operational_command_report-3937.html)
QuoteIn addition to the S-300, it was also possible to demilitarize 73 enemy personel, three tanks, one ammunition depot, and five units of armored and automotive vehicles during the day.
Too late now: 700 Russian soldiers try to leave but not allowed to go home (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/19/7363975/)
Also, wanted for war crimes.
Orcs ask to stop being compared to Russians (https://www.yahoo.com/video/orcs-ask-stop-comparing-them-183700415.html)
Russian repair base (junkyard) in Luhansk goes boom (https://www-unian-ua.translate.goog/war/na-luganshchini-znishcheno-remontnu-bazu-okupantiv-minus-100-odinic-tehniki-pivsotni-vbitih-novini-vtorgnennya-rosiji-v-ukrajinu-11946978.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
At least 100 vehicles and 50 invaders eliminated.
It's even funnier the second time: Ukraine bombs Kahovka bridge again, right after it had been repaired from a previous attack (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3553763-ukraine-hits-kahovka-bridge-just-restored-by-invaders-after-previous-attack.html)
QuoteThe Ukrainian Armed Forces are the sponsors of 'fireworks' for the orcs. Our forces again hit the bridge at the Kakhovka HPP, which the Russians managed to restore. It seems that there will be no grand opening, but there's already been 'fireworks,'" the deputy wrote.
Man, I love their sense of humor! It's so sardonic and acrid, like salt on a wound.
Meet the Engineer: Ukrainian machinegunner abandons his position, operates it remotely to Ruscist surprise (https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1560658471866867712)
Quite the ingenious move, and great for solving practical problems.
(https://i.redd.it/dthkteo9ari91.jpg)
Something to bear in mind when Russia talks of its good intentions in the future.
Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol hit by drone attack (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-black-sea-moscow-navy-fleet-drone-strike-1735387)
Quoteoccupation official Oleg Kryuchkov posted on Telegram that "attacks by small drones continue" in various locations around Crimea and urged civilians to "remain calm."
"The goal is not military but psychological," he wrote. "The explosives are minimal and not capable of inflicting significant harm."
QuoteVideos of the aftermath of the strike shared on social media showed a plume of smoke rising into the air above the building near the waterfront.
If the blast is powerful enough to create a plume of smoke visible from a significant distance, it's definitely capable of inflicting serious harm. And striking enemy military buildings is indeed a military objective, so I have no idea what he's on about.
Ukraine exploits Russian blunders in Crimea (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2022%2F08%2F19%2Fukraines-crimea-fightback-how-saboteurs-exploiting-enemy-blunders%2F)
QuoteBut Svetlana was not the only person to notice that soldiers had begun dumping crates of ammunition on the grounds of the farm.
The troops she spotted seemed nonchalant, far from the frontlines. One truck driver on her street corner even left the engine running as he popped to the shop for a beer.
Quote"The way they handled it - it all appeared so careless. They did everything in the open and didn't bother to make any secret of it," Svetlana said.
She saw a lorry filled with ammunition for the Grad multiple grenade launcher parked near the village shop.
"The guy went into the shop to get beer, and no one was guarding it."
QuoteLocals inside Crimea recounted stories of flagrant negligence by Russian soldiers that would make any such attack surprisingly easy to pull off.
"I often see drunk soldiers walking around," Anna, who works at a holiday resort and asked her identity to be concealed for fear of repercussions, said.
"Do you think it's difficult to trade a bottle of vodka for a grenade from them?"
Ukraine hits invader base in Melitopol, invaders fire back ...at residential buildings, injuring a civilian (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/20/7364109/)
Either Moscow gave them civilian-seeking rockets, or they're incompetent and just panic-firing randomly.
Either way, they should know that every civilian they pass wants them dead and knows where they sleep at night.
Emergency security measures are being put into effect in Crimea, restricting travel and notably, prohibiting smoking within a kilometer of critical military infrastructure (I assume they mean ammo depots and airfields)
If these rules are followed, then I expect these areas to be unguarded in the future.
Also, it seems that Russia will no longer be able to chalk up mysterious explosions to careless smoking and will instead have to openly admit to their people that their ammo depots and bases and warehouses are exploding because of enemy activity and that they cannot assure the security of any site within Ukraine, even those far from the front lines.
Kudos to them for having the courage to admit the truth.
Daughter of close Putin ally killed with car bomb (https://www.npr.org/2022/08/21/1118666607/daria-dugina-car-blast-daughter-putin-ally)
Apparently, they were supposed to be traveling together, but he made other plans. That bomb was most likely intended for him, probably as part of a power struggle within Putin's inner circle.
Strange how people who rely on murder to grow their wealth and power so quickly resort to it on each other. What a world they could build together! - a world safe only for one.
The Russians are advancing (https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wtyfnd/thats_the_way_russian_commandos_are_advancing_in/)
Not fast, and disembarking might be a challenge, but they're definitely advancing.
Red on Red: Russian ethnic minorities (Buryats and Chechens) shoot at each other, significant casualties on both sides (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1561374457893195776)
No reinforcements: Russia unable to recruit enough people to form new unit (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/21/7364213/)
QuoteMilitary authorities in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod Oblast have failed to form a tank battalion, though the procedure has been going on since the beginning of July.
Of the required 160 people, only about 30 signed a contract for service.
Apparently, they've been trying to entice the poorest Russians into joining a new tank battallion by offering them a whopping $168
per month. What a cheapskate dictator.
Coincidentally, these regions are the most likely to agitate if hypothetically, the war didn't go well and Russia suffered crippling sanctions to boot. In that case, it'd make sense to premptively send them to the meatgrinder to preclude that problem. Of course, they'd know this too, and therefore it would be in their best interests to reject a call to arms and not-too-subtle attempt to sell their lives cheaply.
Partisans in Melitopol cut the throat of child molester (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/21/7364239/)
I can't think of anything more hideous than being trapped in a burning tank, and I've seen a lot of videos of that lately. It's seems to me tanks have gone the way of the spear and the bow. It's like taking a knife to a gunfight.
Tanks aren't obsolete, but they are much more vulnerable than they have been in the past. And if all you have are tanks, and the enemy is bristling with anti-tank weapons, then things won't go well.
As always, combined arms is extremely important. Tanks can only be part of the solution.
Ukrainian forces destroy 20 invaders, two S-300 systems, radar in southern Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3555358-ukrainian-forces-destroy-20-invaders-two-s300-systems-radar-in-southern-ukraine.html)
I look forward to the intense air campaign from Kherson to Crimea.
War should be banned worldwide, but I don't know how such a ban could be enforced.
The Antonivskyi bridge in the Kherson region was hit again. Fubar now.
And the Bayraktar drone that Lithuanians crowdfunded is in use. There's footage of it getting a direct hit on a small collection of ammo while it was being unloaded by truck. Very sudden and large boom. Lots of Russian families are getting Ladas right now. Or nothing. It's kind of a crapshoot.
Ukraine destroyed a logistics convoy carrying ammo on the Antonivskyi bridge when the bridge was hit (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1561714765575192577?cxt=HHwWgoC8qcLTqawrAAAA)
I stand corrected. That bridge is megafubar.
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 22, 2022, 11:39:20 AMWar should be banned worldwide, but I don't know how such a ban could be enforced.
Declare war on war?
Yes. Hunt down and kill all belligerents. What? 8^D
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 22, 2022, 11:39:20 AMWar should be banned worldwide, but I don't know how such a ban could be enforced.
Celestial Being? Lol
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 22, 2022, 11:39:20 AMWar should be banned worldwide, but I don't know how such a ban could be enforced.
This is the dawning of the age of Ultron (since Aquarius flopped).
Ammo depot in Donetsk detonates for at least 4 hours (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-ammunition-depot-exploding-in-occupied-donetsk/)
If ammo detonation lasts for more than 8 hours, see a doctor.
Quote from: Cassia on August 22, 2022, 02:47:57 PMDeclare war on war?
One problem with that. Once we declare war on something, it will never cease--witness the war on drugs and poverty and terrorism. So, now, drugs, poverty and terrorism will always be with us in this country. On the other hand, we must have declared war on war right after the Rev. War, because we have been at war constantly with one enemy or another ever since.
Soon. (https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1561775821257379840)
Russia reportedly gearing up specifically to slaughter as many civilians as possible (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/22/state-department-russia-stepping-up-against-civilians-00053229)
Most of their attacks have targeted civilians, but apparently it's their primary goal now.
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 23, 2022, 05:05:54 AMRussia reportedly gearing up specifically to slaughter as many civilians as possible (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/22/state-department-russia-stepping-up-against-civilians-00053229)
Most of their attacks have targeted civilians, but apparently it's their primary goal now.
Maybe Putin thinks civilians will give up and force the government to surrender when they realize they are being targeted. But they were targeted before and I haven't heard Ukrainian citizens calling for the government to give in to Russia's demands.
Total surrender could lead to unbridled carnage, rape, and enslavement. No one wants to be owned by the Russians. The fall of the Soviet Union didn't happen because occupied countries liked having the Russians there. They were glad to see them go. I had a Czech friend whose mother went to visit relatives in Czechoslovakia, in the 1950s. She described a horrible place to live.
Russia then was still a backwards prewar society, and there was no reason to allow their territories to live any better. And today, there is still no reason for any country to want to be part of Russia. Maybe someday, but not now.
Ukraine destroys two command posts and two ammo depots in Kherson region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/23/7364454/)
All in all, a fairly quiet day.
Norway and UK to deliver Super Hornet microdrones to Ukraine (https://www-regjeringen-no.translate.goog/no/aktuelt/droner/id2924942/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=no)
These things are tiny, basically undetectable, and are very good at scouting urban areas. Squads will be able to ferret out hiding orcs easily and safely. And they have thermal vision, so they're still effective at night.
Russia announces the "adoption" of thousands of kidnapped kids from Mariupol (https://news.yahoo.com/russia-announces-adoption-thousands-children-104931080.html)
This sort of mass forced immigration of children fits the legal definition of genocide according to the UN.
Ukraine is celebrating its Independence Day today, so it makes sense that temporarily-occupied Crimea and Donbas should celebrate as well.
Speakers in those areas of Ukraine have been hacked to play the Ukrainian national anthem (https://mobile.twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1562440263330476032)
Institute for the Study of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24):
QuoteSince Russian forces resumed offensive operations following a pause on July 16 Russian forces have gained about 450.84 km2 (roughly 174 square miles) of new territory, an area around the size of Andorra. Russian forces have lost roughly 45,000 km2 of territory since March 21 (the estimated date of Russian forces' deepest advance into Ukraine), an area larger than Denmark.
Basically, the Russians are steadily losing ground. The Russians aren't going to be gone overnight (the Kerch Bridge is far too congested for that), but they will be gone eventually.
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 24, 2022, 11:41:51 PM
Perhaps there will be a day when war is not normalized. A day when millions stop venerating, tolerating or fearing egocentric, narcissist dictators. That is literally...all it would take.
Russian plot to steal nuclear power risks nuclear catastrophe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/24/revealed-russian-plan-to-disconnect-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-from-grid)
They're shelling the nuclear plant to the point that its connections to the Ukraine power grid are being severed (but they're not at all accurate, which is deeply unsettling), then planning to enact an "emergency" connection to the Russian power grid, which may or may not be performed in time to prevent disaster.
India, which normally abstains, voted against Russia for the first time (https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-breaks-streak-of-un-abstentions-on-ukraine-votes-against-russia-122082500133_1.html)
QuoteGoing against Moscow's stance, India on Wednesday joined 12 other members of the Council to vote for inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to speak via a remote video link.
China abstained on the vote and Russia naturally voted against the invitation
I'd love to be a fly on the wall and see the glares at Putin after Zelensky speaks. If looks could kill...
Russian shelling disconnects Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant from grid for first time in history (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1562805492812251138)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbAzv57X0AAcduQ?format=jpg&name=small)
Airborne goes airborne: Ukraine destroys Russian base, 200 invaders killed (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/26/7364870/)
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant reconnected to Ukraine's power grid (https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/26/europe/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-power-plant-grid-reconnection-intl/index.html)
Ukrainian forces destroy communication and logistic hubs in Kherson region (https://mobile.twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1562985149108998149?s=21&t=Bb51W47iBSnfJlr_hgMo7Q)
Nuclear disaster was averted, barely (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/26/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-ukraine-russia-europe-radiation-disaster)
We can't leave this stuff to chance because next time, the world might not be so lucky. Nuclear terrorists must be demilitarized to no longer have the means to try again.
If they are allowed to try again and again, they will eventually trigger a nuclear disaster with a massive loss of human life.
Mad Vlad has likely fired 6 generals for advancing "too slowly" (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-russia-latest-news-generals-britain-fired-b1021087.html)
Dare you to advance faster. You'll run out of generals before Ukraine runs out of shells.
And just like the American soldiers who came home wounded and disturbed, Russia and Ukraine will have suicidal veterans after the initial nightmare ends. This guy is still wearing his vest. Senseless.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbJlohvUEAUy1sC?format=jpg&name=large)
Yeah, I saw one video with a Russian mother overjoyed to have her son back home - and he's missing both arms entirely. It was as surreal as it was unnecessary - if he had stayed put, he'd be fine.
Russia smuggles s-300 through Bosphorus to be used in Ukraine War (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russian-s-300-missile-system-slips-through-bosporus-towards-war-in-ukraine/)
A clear violation of the Montreux Convention and Turkey's sovereign control over its own waters.
Russia lost 250 soldiers, 3 tanks, 3 armored vehicles, and 5 artillery yesterday (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/27/7364997/)
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 27, 2022, 03:50:05 PMRussia smuggles s-300 through Bosphorus to be used in Ukraine War (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russian-s-300-missile-system-slips-through-bosporus-towards-war-in-ukraine/)
A clear violation of the Montreux Convention and Turkey's sovereign control over its own waters.
I hope Ukraine's army blows it to shit, tout-suite!
Largest Russian base in Ukraine goes boom (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3559565-russian-military-base-destroyed-in-melitopol-fedorov.html)
Also, a building they were going to use for a fake referredumn was demolished. Allow me to offer my fakest condolences!
Russian forces in Kherson continue to degrade in effectiveness (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-27)
QuoteUkraine's Southern Operational Command stated that a 10-person Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted assault operations in Kherson Oblast on August 27, suggesting that Russian offensive capabilities in Kherson Oblast have degraded even further.
A 10-person group amounts to a squad, which is too small to act effectively as a maneuver unit. If the Southern Operational Command correctly reported the size and mission of this unit, it would indicate that Russian ground forces in Ukraine have degraded to the point that they are attempting to conduct offensive operations and echelons too low to make meaningful gains.
Also, Russia's gearing up the volunteer 3rd Army Corps to try to regain some lost momentum. Supposedly, they're getting better gear and "abbreviated" training. But nice gear (by Russian standards) doesn't mean anything if they lack proper intel, logistics, training, leadership, and discipline. Orcs with nice guns are simply fertilizer temporarily carrying around nice trophies. 🌻
Ammo dump near Kherson goes boom (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/explosions-occurred-in-the-invaders-armaments-depot-in-kherson/)
Russian troops in Kazakhstan refuse to return to Russia out of fear of being used as cannon fodder in Ukraine (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-force-wont-return-mission-fearing-ukraine-deployment-report-1737586)
1000 troops, too. Russia certainly needs all the help it can get in their genocidal war of aggression, though they have very little to offer in return. It makes a lot of moral and practical sense to stay put.
Russia uses an expensive "high-precision" missile to bomb a public toilet in Kherson region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3559651-hundreds-of-thousands-of-dollars-wasted-by-russians-to-destroy-public-toilet-in-kherson-region.html)
Blew the shit out of Kherson, they get to say.
Has Russia become a laughingstock yet?
I just came across something called "nukemap" that's interesting as hell. It shows the results of the use of a nuclear weapon of various sizes. You can just Google it.
It's at the nuclear secrecy blog.
ruzzist back home poses with Ukrainian skull, claims this is a war on an "idea" (that Ukraine exists) and that in a war of ideas, it sucks and he feels bad but they just have to kill anyone who holds the idea (again, the idea that Ukraine exists).
It's been said before - "If you are wondering what you would do if you lived in WW2 when the Nazi's were around... you're doing it right now.". Unfortunately, if it was up to the people... ruzzia would probably be glass by now, but it's not up to the people.
ruzzist Who Definitely Should Have Come Home In A Body Bag Being a Nazi (https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1563763961740333056)
The Liberation of Kherson is a go!
Unfortunately, I can't share much details about it due to operational security, but early reports are very hopeful. It's looking very much like a repeat of operations north of Kyiv.
Slava Ukraine!
Edit - I can share today's casualty figures (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/30/7365307/). 450 invader KIA, 7 tanks, 25 armoured combat vehicles, 19 artillery, 3 MLRS, 2 air defense, 1 helicopter, 29 other vehicles, etc.
I see your inflatable s-300s and raise you wooden HIMARS
Russians blow up wooden HIMARS with expensive, very limited Kalibur missiles (https://m.censor.net/en/news/3364002/ukraine_deceived_russians_theyre_hitting_wooden_himars_with_65_million_calibers_washington_post)
They're up to 10 so far. I think they hit so many because they mistook the wooden frames for wooden playgrounds, their primary target.
The morale of the world's second strongest army in Ukraine:
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 30, 2022, 01:16:59 PMI see your inflatable s-300s and raise you wooden HIMARS
Russians blow up wooden HIMARS with expensive, very limited Kalibur missiles (https://m.censor.net/en/news/3364002/ukraine_deceived_russians_theyre_hitting_wooden_himars_with_65_million_calibers_washington_post)
They're up to 10 so far. I think they hit so many because they mistook the wooden frames for wooden playgrounds, their primary target.
Patton's army all over again. Looking like Ukraine set this up nicely.
Quote from: ferdmonger on August 31, 2022, 01:15:22 AMPatton's army all over again. Looking like Ukraine set this up nicely.
Honestly, a lot of it is very reminiscent of WWII. Occupation camps, partisans, trenches, heavy use of tanks and artillery on both sides, war production, heavy emphasis on operational secrecy, nationalistic propaganda, etc.
Some important differences, though. I remember, though barely, when the Gulf War was broadcast on CNN. Well, this one is broadcast on Telegram and Twitter and TikTok of all places. Also, a lot of it is "I heard from a friend of a friend who lives in Kyiv..."
Invader losses today (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/31/7365474/):
Approx 350 troops
20 tanks
18 armoured combat vehicles
12 artillery systems
3 MLRS
1 air defence system
19 other vehicles
At this rate, in a couple years, a dozen babushkas could storm the Kremlin.
Pranked: Russian soldiers blown up by own landmines while responding to fake call (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-blown-own-mines-responding-fake-call-official-1737833)
QuoteAt about 2 a.m. Monday morning, a group of Russian troops on patrol in Mariupol received reports that "Azov" fighters were hiding inside a home on the outskirts of the city
Quote"The result is one occupier minus a leg and a hospital in Donetsk. One occupier sings with Kobzon,"
Kobzon was a famous Russian singer and dead now, so the english language equivalent would be something like "sleeps with the fishes" (aka dead)
(https://i.imgur.com/tJUAAM6.jpeg)
Fun fact: if they don't get a hit, they'll sign another one and try again until they do. Satisfaction guaranteed!
Kevin fucking Sorbo should just sit over the missile silo and ride the missile to its final destination, afaiac.
What is more painfully saddening than the actual war fought on streets is that people watching the war on screen and following news on media really believe that they can understand the dynamics of international relations.
Btw, this is not a war, it is maybe gangsta clash in terms of its scale.lol
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on August 31, 2022, 11:08:45 PMWhat is more painfully saddening than the actual war fought on streets is that people watching the war on screen and following news on media really believe that they can understand the dynamics of international relations.
Btw, this is not a war, it is maybe gangsta clash in terms of its scale.lol
"What is funny people think they can understand this conflict... now let me explain how I understand it better."
Kherson counteroffensive: US says Russian units are falling back (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-u-s-says-some-russian-units-are-falling-back-in-kherson)
This is actually news from a couple of days ago, but it couldn't be discussed in detail because of the need for secrecy. But essentially, the first line of defense was breached in at least 3 places by Ukrainian forces and many Russian soldiers were forced to retreat from their positions.
(https://i.redd.it/tw710efvn7l91.jpg)
Ukrainian forces continue to inflict crushing losses. I was joking earlier about babushkas being able to storm the Kremlin soon, but now I think I might be onto something.
No modern military can lose 20+ tanks, 30+ armored vehicles, and 20+ artillery per day and continue to be combat effective. That's like almost the entire Afghanistan conflict per month.
Top Russian oil tycoon dies after falling out of a hospital window in Moscow (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chairman-russian-oil-producer-lukoil-dies-after-falling-hospital-window-source-2022-09-01/)
Hmmm...
Yeah, I bet he's "deeply mourned by his thousands of employees."
Quote from: Unbeliever on September 01, 2022, 09:57:37 AMYeah, I bet he's "deeply mourned by his thousands of employees."
I keep remembering a scene from the Hudsucker Proxy, where all employees are ordered to partake in a moment of silence in remembrance of their CEO who jumped out of the top story window that morning, and were then informed that their moment of silence would be deducted from their pay.
(https://i.redd.it/zvigz4171al91.jpg)
Somehow, I think we'll be okay.
Ukraine air force strikes targets along the southern front (https://glavcom-ua.translate.goog/country/incidents/zsu-na-pivdni-znishchili-pjat-skladiv-i-punkt-upravlinnja-okupantiv-872371.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Along with the usual targets of troops, tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, they also hit 5 ammo warehouses, a drone control center, and a ferry crossing.
(https://i.redd.it/t1u23hbcgfl91.jpg)
Miming competence
St Petersburg authorities plan to use homeless in Ukraine war (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/st-petersburg-authorities-launch-local-homeless-recruiting-plan-send-them-to-war-in-ukraine/)
Previously, St Petersburg officials have been unable to recruit enough volunteers, even after offering sign-up bonuses and waiting for months. Also, the most poor and remote regions of Russia are pretty much depleted, even with Russia's new relaxed standards.
The war is going so well for Russia that they're running low on bodies to throw into the meat grinder.
And you just know that homeless people plus "abbreviated" training and less-than-stellar equipment are going to be top-notch soldiers. /s
The Ukrainian soldiers who have already seen months of intense fighting and received some foreign training on their shiny new western weapons are going to eat them for breakfast.
Yikes! Fox News says we are "uncomfortably low" on ammo. Where can we ever get any more? Actually, I think we are just rotating our stock like the grocery stores.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 08:11:43 AM(https://i.redd.it/zvigz4171al91.jpg)
Somehow, I think we'll be okay.
I'll pray for us.
OK, that's done, so we'll be fine now...I hope...
If this were true Faux News certainly wouldn't told about it.
Maybe we could buys some ammo from the teenagers around here. They seem to have plenty.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 02, 2022, 08:11:43 AM(https://i.redd.it/zvigz4171al91.jpg)
Somehow, I think we'll be okay.
Don't think the munitions industry is complaining.
Ukraine's Drones Are Back—And Blowing Up Russian Artillery In The South (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/02/ukraines-drones-are-back-and-blowing-up-russian-artillery/?sh=29068b686b8f)
Ukraine has methodically been destroying air defense in the south and its strikes in Crimea scared away the brave, civilian-bombing Russian pilots, who were forced to redeploy elsewhere, mostly in eastern Ukraine or Russian territory.
The end result is that Ukrainian drones can operate with less risk near Kherson, where they've been very effective in clearing away Russian artillery, logistics vehicles, and invaders (hence the noticeably elevated causality figures recently). Ukraine released footage of two such strikes recently. The results were very impressive. Direct hit, utter annihilation. 10/10.
In its latest aid package, Finland donates military aid worth €8.3 to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSO9N2XQ01K)
Contents were not disclosed for security reasons.
Ukrainian forces destroy 3 artillery, an ammo warehouse, and chase off a company of Russian soldiers (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/2/7365868/) (estimated 130-150 soldiers)
QuoteThe Russian wounded were taken to medical facilities near Borozenske, Kherson Oblast. Due to the inappropriate level of medical care, most of the wounded died from their injuries."
I don't have the article but I remember reading about Russia opening up a new field hospital in the Kherson area because the others were too overbooked and I was shocked by the minimal medical care, which was much lower than even I expected.
Evidently, a considerable portion of the losses are more from inadequate medical care than from being killed outright. That might be driving up casualty figures as well.
QuoteThe Ukrainian General Staff also reported that the Russian company, which had been based in the "Zahublenyi svit" sports club, left Kherson and took looted property in 5 tented trucks to temporarily occupied Crimea.
Based in a sports club, looting galore, abandons position when things get difficult in "tented trucks". A lot to unpack there. My fervent hope is that they run into a landmine or chechens under orders to shoot deserters on sight before they make it to the relative safety of Crimea with their ill-gotten gains.
A lone, shrill voice containing bitter tears (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning): The Kremlin cries about US coming to the aid of invaded country (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/2/7365855/)
Perhaps Russia should abandon its land-grab ambitions now as a gesture of goodwill? That would effectively end US involvement.
Anyone who has been watching this conflict brewing with even a sliver of insight understands that Russia set the stage for the very conditions that it is now complaining about.
(https://i.redd.it/pssnp2nc9ll91.png)
Hard at work!
Comrade, where's our tank? 2 Bayraktar drones destroy Russian military equipment worth $26.5 million in 3 days (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1565990986932789250)
8 T-72 tanks, 1 IFV, and multiple howitzers. Not bad for just two drones over the course of a long weekend!
Russia's been building a new unit called the 3rd Army Corps to reinforce their forces in Ukraine. This unit has been intentionally held back from fighting in order to be better trained and equipped than normal. At least, that's the official statement.
Well, it turns out that the real reason is that 40% of their equipment doesn't work (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1566018995349749763). What's more is that these are soviet-era hand-me-downs and the "better equipment" thing was a lie. They'll be lucky to simply have enough gear to function, and that'll take more time to scrounge up. I hope there's nothing urgent going on in the meantime!
The Russians lose another SAM system near Kherson (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/invaders-lost-pantsir-s1-sam-in-the-kherson-region/), weakening their air defense and allowing Bayraktar drones to operate more freely.
Ukraine destroys convoy headed for port city of Berdiansk (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/3/7365912/), one vehicle was supposedly transporting bodies of slain Russian soldiers before it was destroyed
Blown up twice, that'll do wonders for morale.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on September 02, 2022, 12:20:49 PMIf this were true Faux News certainly wouldn't told about it.
In hindsight, I disagree - they would be blaring it in microphones across the world just because it would help our enemies.
Russian father joins army after his son was killed in Ukraine, returns home disillusioned (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-soldier-father-son-ukraine-war/32015966.html)
It's notable that he talks of shared history and familial ties between Ukrainians and Russians and his disbelief and dismay at fighting fellow slavs. This war isn't just colonial aggression, it's also fratricide.
(https://preview.redd.it/y4ii87gfltl91.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=7595753fcba3937a7c04a658b51824bb72f9cadb)
Ukrainian forces managed to "shoot down" a Russian plane without firing a shot (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/4/7366025/)
How? By turning on the backlight radar. This triggered warnings in the cockpit. The Russian pilot panicked and ejected.
(https://i.redd.it/kaxjubdb3ul91.jpg)
#CheapskateDictactor
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 03, 2022, 11:33:01 PMRussian father joins army after his son was killed in Ukraine, returns home disillusioned (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-soldier-father-son-ukraine-war/32015966.html)
It's notable that he talks of shared history and familial ties between Ukrainians and Russians and his disbelief and dismay at fighting fellow slavs. This war isn't just colonial aggression, it's also fratricide.
That was very telling. He went to revenge his son and came back saying "they (the Ukrainians) are our brothers". Did you see the "honor guard" idiot @ 2:14 with the jammed rifle, pointing it at the old ladies? What a joke.
Putin is reportedly finally ready to talk to Zelensky. About time.
But if he intended to freeze this conflict at its high water mark, he's a couple months too late. Russia has steadily been losing ground, and looks like it will soon lose Kherson oblast and shortly thereafter, Crimea.
Also, Putin is still shelling civilians and the nuclear power plant, which speaks volumes. Not the sort of thing peace-loving people do. Quite the opposite.
If I were Zelensky, I would ask for more gestures of goodwill, small things that are not too difficult, like prisoner exchanges, the return of kidnapped children, ceasefire at the nuclear plant.
As for calling off the war, I don't think Zelensky should be in any big hurry, certainly not to accept any Russian troop presence in Ukraine, which would continue to brutalize/genocide Ukrainian populations and serve as staging areas for the next war. In fact, I would probably insist on terms that I know Russia wouldn't accept, like reparations or demilitarization. This would give time for Ukraine to liberate Ukrainian cities and push Russian soldiers back to Russia, where they belong.
(https://preview.redd.it/8h74anwqczl91.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=065515be7b485e504b35ea13101f3db1a514a75c)
One more day 'till the big 50K!
"A Russian-installed official in Ukraine's Kherson region said on Monday that plans for a referendum on joining Russia had been "paused" due to the security situation" (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kherson-referendum-plans-paused-due-security-situation-tass-cites-russian-2022-09-05/)
Gee, that's a shame.
Russian Soldiers Riot, Refuse To Fight Over Lack of Supplies (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-riot-refuse-fight-ukraine-war-1739773?utm_source=Flipboard&utm_medium=App&utm_campaign=Partnerships)
QuoteSoldiers with the 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps rioted, and refused to further participate in Russian President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine.
QuoteISW previously reported that the DNR redeployed the 109th, 113th, and 125th regiments to northwestern Kherson in late July, and the 109th regiment reportedly surrendered on the first day of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
lol day 1 surrender. Things are going great for Putin.
Russian soldiers get catfished, leak the location of their base, which gets blown up (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-hackers-create-fake-profiles-russia-troops-share-location-ft-2022-9)
Does the Russian language not have something similar to "loose lips sink ships"?
Putin, looking pretty mousey, hanging onto his chair..
https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagner-group-accused-of-disemboweling-women-in-the-central-african-republic
I mean this in the most dispassionate, non-anger filled way...
I hope Ukraine finds these men, castrates them and chokes them to death with their own STD-infested micro-dicks.
Yeah, Wagner could all die and it would make the world a happier place.
Lately, they've been complaining bitterly about lack of air support and artillery in Ukraine so maybe a lot of their comrades have deduced that as well.
What could possibly be motivating them to be committing such atrocities!?
(https://i.redd.it/2t8bu8n5g8m91.jpg)
So much shade that I want to take a nap!
NY Times article they're referencing (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare)
Putin forces Russian 1st Army Corps to sign 3-year contracts (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_forces_conscripts_of_the_1st_army_corps_to_sign_contracts_and_fight_for_another_three_years-4127.html)
At the rate Ukraine is chewing through Russian troops, every last one of them will be dead before they complete their contracts. Might as well give 'em a shovel.
(https://i.redd.it/7adv9qsmx7m91.jpg)
Russian doctrine has somehow become more reliant on UAVs and less able to field them. Very strange thought process they have going on in Russian command. I suspect that most of those medals are made out of either lead or mercury.
Russia sanctions 25 more Americans, including Sean Penn, Ben Stiller (https://13wham.com/news/entertainment/russia-sanctions-25-more-americans-including-sean-penn-ben-stiller-gina-raimondo-mark-kelly-kyrsten-sinema-kevin-cramer-mike-rounds-rick-scott-pat-toomey-permanently-banned)
Is it just me, or is this childish? Also a bit delusional, like anyone want to go to their country. You don't get to go into the lion's mouth, Ben Stiller.
Hell, being sanctioned by Russia should be considered a mark of distinction.
Yeah, somehow I think Ben Stiller will get by. If anything, stuff like this just gives him a temporary boost more than anything else.
Imo, Russia's actions ceased to be rational months ago. It's all about lashing out any way they can and trying to intimidate/threaten others any way they know how because that's all they know how to do.
Want a smoke? Partisans engage in Psy-Ops campaign against invaders (https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1567136758407565313)
Across temporarily occupied territory, posters have appeared showing explosions and occupier's coordinates
Occupiers must choose to either move or risk an unexpected visit from HIMARS. Over and over and over again. Until one day, something unexpected happens and there's no longer a need for posters because there's no one to address.
Edit - Occupier cars have also been exploding recently. Must be careless smoking.
Russian Soldiers 'Demoralized And Shaken,' Use 'Defective' Missiles' To Attack Ukraine (https://www.ibtimes.com/russian-soldiers-demoralized-shaken-use-defective-missiles-attack-ukraine-3609658)
I'm happy to report that Ukrainian forces have made significant progress towards Kherson, though specifics can't be disclosed at the moment due to operational security. Suffice it to say that at this pace, Kherson will definitely be liberated by the end of the month.
(https://preview.redd.it/jngrdck4rdm91.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=2a9f3ac0033e26d9b7671d407aa03a26e13b0fc3)
Jeez, I'm floored by the tank losses. 20 tanks a day, every single day. That's 7300 a year. For comparison, there are roughly 73000 tanks in the world. (At its current pace, Ukraine could chew through 10% of the world's tanks in a year, which is amazingly ferocious for such a relatively modest country)
Not all of those tanks are functional, though obviously, no country is going to give details about that. On paper, Russia has (or rather, had) ~12,420 tanks total and >1,000 of them are visually confirmed to have been destroyed with Ukraine plausibly claiming another thousand.
Considering that Russia's already scrapping the bottom of the barrel with T-62s complete with cope cages, it's safe to assume that they don't have much left in reserve, because they would've sent it already. And they're quickly burning through (pun unintended but not inaccurate) what they have left.
Bottom line: this conflict will not last for years and years. Russia simply doesn't have the reserves to keep it up that long and can't replenish nearly quickly enough. Somehow, major fighting will be over in months, maybe a year, if that.
I'm still concerned that we haven't seen the muskovite themselves fighting, other than Wagner.
But perhaps Wagner really was all the military they had.
Quote from: Shiranu on September 07, 2022, 11:49:01 AMI'm still concerned that we haven't seen the muskovite themselves fighting, other than Wagner.
But perhaps Wagner really was all the military they had.
Russia has tapped almost all of the manpower it has available to it without mobilizing. If they mobilize, they'd essentially be publicly admitting that the special operation has failed. Such a move also has dire consequences for Putin's rule (and life). Besides, it's unlikely that they can equip much more troops, as the 3rd Corps fiasco is showing.
As a result, Ukraine has mobilized and Russia has not. In a war of attrition, Russia is fighting at a disadvantage before cards are even dealt.
Ukraine launches a surprise counterattack in Kharkiv region and encircles Russian forces (https://www.theguardian.com/global/2022/sep/07/ukraine-launches-surprise-counterattack-kharkiv-region-russia)
QuoteAn official representing the Russian-controlled Donetsk People's Republic said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces "encircled" Balakliia, an eastern town of 27,000 people situated between Kharkiv and Russian-occupied Izium.
"Today, the Ukrainian armed forces, after prolonged artillery preparation ... began an attack on Balakliia," Daniil Bezsonov said on Telegram.
"At this time, Balakliia is in operative encirclement and within the firing range of Ukrainian artillery. All approaches are cut off by fire," he said, adding that a successful Ukrainian offensive would threaten Russian forces in Izium, a strategically important town that Russia has been using for its own offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Oh no, it'd be such a shame if Russia lost Izium, too.
QuoteWithout specifying any locations, the Luhansk regional governor, Serhiy Haidai, told Ukrainian television on Wednesday that a "counterattack is under way and ... our forces are enjoying some success. Let's leave it at that."
In probably related news, Ukrainian forces captured an alleged Russian lieutenant colonel (https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-troops-capture-russian-army-175100801.html) near Kharkiv, which is fairly high up the food chain. Definitely a significant loss for Russian forces in the area.
Putin says Russia has "lost nothing" since the war began back in February (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/7/7366424/)
At first, I thought that this is an obvious lie. But it is the truth if and only if he considers Russian lives to be nothing.
How can you lose anything if you never had anything to begin with?
Apparently, some Russian forces tried to escape the encirclement near Kharkiv by dressing like civilians and driving civilian cars. 80s action movie tactics, lol. I guess they thought Ukrainian forces would never think that Russians would try to escape the completely encircled Russian position. So yeah, they were captured. Just as well that they ditched the military uniforms, they're not going to need them again for a long time.
Ukrainian forces also captured something of value: 2 electronic warfare units (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/07/ukrainian-troops-capture-two-russian-electronic-warfare-units-other-equipment-in-kharkiv-oblast/). I assume they jam Russian mines within a small radius to allow Russian forces to freely travel through an otherwise deadly mine field. Pretty smart. The only wrinkle is that if you no longer control the jammers, you no longer control the minefield. Hope they kept everyone in the loop.
Ukrainian forces denazify a whopping 640 invaders in 24 hours (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/8/7366560/)
Another banner day. Attrition is destroying Putin's dream of conquest. Every day, his dream becomes more uncertain and further from reality.
Norway donates Hellfire missiles to Ukraine (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/08/norway-will-transfer-160-hellfire-missiles-to-ukraine/), already there and ready to be used. Russian forces should expect record high temps before winter.
I see that Putin, along with other officials, fell asleep at a meeting about tourism. He was apparently quite fatigued, poor guy.
Death of a Russian T90. I never worked on or designed any weapon systems, but I did interview with General Dynamics Electric Boat division and turned down the offer. Later, I did do some work on a military radio design, and I am OK with that. It's a decision engineers make.
I screen-captured a frame where the exposure was relatively long enough to capture both the incoming missile and the resulting explosion. Truely must be frightening to be a tank crew member, especially for the Russian invaders as the very portable NATO tank killers work very well. And just think there was a Ukrainian drone up there just watching that tank operate. Tanks must be deployed strategically to be effective.
(https://i.ibb.co/gvzZ6td/tank.jpg)
Russian Z-propagandist laments "We have already lost" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/08/we-have-already-lost-far-right-russian-bloggers-slam-kremlin-over-army-response)
Quote"The war in Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia," Igor Girkin, a far-right nationalist, grumbled in a video address to his 430,000 followers on Telegram on Monday. "We have already lost, the rest is just a matter of time."
QuoteThe Russian government has not published its own losses since 25 March, when it gave a total of 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded.
lmao. They lose more than that over a long weekend. If trends continue, maybe a normal weekend.
QuoteInstead, since the onset of the war, the Russian defence ministry has repeatedly issued improbable statements about its successes on the battlefield, boasting of having destroyed more than 40 western-made Himars rocket launchers and claiming to have decimated the Ukrainian air force.
State television, the most popular source of information in Russia, similarly continues to paint a rosy picture of Russian successes in Ukraine.
Good. I hope they continue to paint a false picture. People who don't know the reality of the situation have great difficulty changing it. (the exact reason why Moscow keeps their domestic situation from the populace) Sooner or later, the truth gets out and it's going to come down on them like a ton of bricks. Then shaky morale becomes utterly broken morale and this whole thing will be over.
St Petersburg municipal deputies call on state duma to charge Putin woth treason and remove him from office (https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/08/st-petersburg-municipal-deputies-call-for-russias-state-duma-to-accuse-putin-of-treason/)
Quote"We believe that President Putin's decision to launch an EWS is detrimental to the security of Russia and its citizens. In this connection, we ask you, as a member of the State Duma, to propose charges of treason against the Russian president to remove him from office," the appeal reads.
The texts also mentions the war is killing "young able-bodied" Russian citizens, the Russian economy is suffering, NATO is expanding eastwards and Ukraine is getting new weapons (although Putin called one of the goals of the invasion the "demilitarisation" of the country).
EWS is presumably the cyrillic acronym for Special Military Operation.
And they're not wrong, Putin's gamble with Russian lives has resulted in precisely the opposite of Putin's stated goals.
Western Europe is more united and influencial than ever, countries are begging to join the EU and/or NATO, and Ukraine is more militarized than ever, with an eclectic blend of seemingly every major power's military arsenal. Russia is now a rapidly waning power and Ukraine is rising - exactly what Moscow feared the most.
^ Gonna be a bunch of deputies falling out of windows, soon...
Quote from: Dark Lightning on September 08, 2022, 03:57:36 PM^ Gonna be a bunch of deputies falling out of windows, soon...
If they are feeling bold enough to say this, perhaps Putin has lost the aristocracy.
I'm curious to see where this goes - Putin has seem in increasingly poorer and poorer health, and men in his profession haven't historically retired so peacefully in Russia.
I don't think "retired peacefully" can even be said in Russian...
Intercepted phone call: Russian soldier says he thinks Ukrainians figured out his location from his cell phone. He guessed right.
If you call your wife to tell her the enemy is targeting the location of your phone, then stop calling your wife.
Russian troops desert (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/9/7366719/)
(https://i.redd.it/quowh41vcsm91.jpg)
650, a new record
Institute of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-8)
QuoteUkrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.
I've seen footage lately of yet another failed river crossing, complete with submerged tanks, so it seems history is repeating itself.
QuoteMilbloggers warned about an impending Ukrainian counteroffensive northwest of Izyum for days prior to Ukrainian advances, and some milbloggers noted that Russian command failed to prepare for "obvious and predictable" Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Initial reports had Ukraine with "tactical surprise" which struck me as odd because Ukraine publically announced its counteroffensive. Evidently, Russian forces either had bad intel or they were in such a poor state of readiness that they couldn't engage effectively.
QuoteSome milbloggers complained that the Russian MoD did not seize the information space in a timely manner to prevent the spread of Ukrainian social media on Russian Telegram channels, leading to distrust among Russian audiences.
Who could have guessed that lying leads to distrust? LOL
Kharkiv counteroffensive over the last 3 days (https://twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1568227635641331713)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcNvqmWXgAEMv7o?format=jpg&name=medium)
Russians donate ammo to Ukraine in a gesture of goodwill (https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1568180213758009344?s=20&t=a00NYsHXLci0XqLOhidPQw)
Ukraine should be polite and send some back. 🌻
Russia's 237th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment no longer exists (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/9/7366818/)
All soldiers are either dead or wounded, and many of the wounded are seriously wounded.
QuoteThe unit has no commanders and communications left.
Mysterious explosions in Belgorod (https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/sabotage-or-accident-strange-blasts-occur-in-russias-belgorod.html)
Voted Russia's most flammable region 6 months and counting
Man, they'd better get a handle on this illicit smoking soon, or Russia is going to look really, really foolish.
Quote from: ferdmonger on September 09, 2022, 08:04:51 PMMan, they'd better get a handle on this illicit smoking soon, or Russia is going to look really, really foolish.
Spoiler- they already look pretty foolish. 8^) I'll readily admit that we have some seriously stupid shit going on in the US, but Russia is starting to make North Korea look sane. Not a good sign. What's the over/under for Putin "jumping" out a window or glowing in the dark from Polonium poisoning?
Just hoping that Vlad doesn't go ape-shit over him losing his three day 'special operation'.
He must at this point understand that he has lost on the world stage. Please don't exacerbate your failure by attacking more civilian targets.
(https://i.redd.it/ryxymxuxewm91.jpg)
Ukrainian counterattack near Kharkiv gathers pace, threatens Russian supply lines and isolates Izyium (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-breaks-front-line-east-nearing-key-town-89636777)
Massive artillery strike in Luhansk region wipes out up to 400 invaders, 100 vehicles (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/10/occupied-kreminna-luhansk-oblast-saw-several-ukrainian-strikes-oblast-head-serhii-haidai/)
Slava Ukrayini!
I can't pretend to fully understand this, but Russian forces idiotically decided to put reactive armor on its Infantry Fighting Vehicles without properly reinforcing them first (https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russians_apply_era_modules_for_bmp_2_ifvs_why_it_is_hazardous_for_the_crew_photo-4173.html), which evidently not only won't work correctly, but presents a huge safety risk to the crew.
Essentially, if the anti-tank missile doesn't kill them, their own reactive armor will (Newton's third law)
(https://i.redd.it/hmb6d4xtx4n91.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/wqqtzd9pr3n91.png)
Institute the Study of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10)
QuoteUkrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.
Ukrainian forces will likely capture the city of Izyum itself in the next 48 hours if they have not already done so. The liberation of Izyum would be the most significant Ukrainian military achievement since winning the Battle of Kyiv in March.
QuoteKremlin-sponsored TV propagandists offered a wide range of confused explanations for Ukrainian successes ranging from justifications that Russian forces are fighting against the entire Western Bloc, to downplaying the importance of Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCS) in Kupyansk.[4] The Kremlin's propagandists appeared unusually disorganized in their narratives, with some confirming the liberation of certain towns and others refuting such reports.
Ha! They sound a lot like Fox News. Suspiciously so...
QuoteRussian milbloggers condemned the Russian MoD for remaining quiet, choosing self-isolation, and distorting situational awareness in Russia.[5] One milblogger even stated that the Russian MoD's silence is a betrayal of Russian servicemen that fought and still fight in Ukraine.[6]
The reward for lying is distrust.
QuoteSome milbloggers noted that occupation administrations are disoriented and lack initiative.[10] The Ukrainian counteroffensive is effectively paralyzing the Russian occupation leadership that is likely afraid for its fate.
Good. They should wake up and go to sleep every day with the same fear that the residents of Mariupol have known.
Increased US-Ukraine intel sharing key to Ukrainian counteroffensive plan (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/10/us/politics/ukraine-military-intelligence.html?unlocked_article_code=sLj8glZaZPmAnG257kPfmRnFp9InTQI1QAh2_sSziiV-E5wPPkrMFHgRC6gtvVzKHwEcSAHyS8ElvENBqcydpZ3BTrHvej6SEgezWlCI1QJlg4NYXEctMLCNLvLMUfEt9U9g73DHqk76WH3QZo5oQYvJGHfD-Y3U6MfdzOOaLH7ft4cHwePVKv5tElLI_yheFGhZ6LJ2ywMTrzFXztqHdYvav6PIy52yDLsjESo6syrFrvz8BT1sisQ3dkVxasvLGlA5TxbnTh-MFURvgle4tZi4ILcHZenOz5SnnIRHKiRMp0qzSmD0m75gqnOXEAQKML8NInZv1DsRu3VZ1YHgprBFdJrjaQXQghal&smid=share-url)
QuoteSenior Ukrainian officials stepped up intelligence sharing with their American counterparts over the summer as they began to plan the counteroffensive that allowed them to make dramatic gains in the northeast in recent days, a shift that allowed the United States to provide better and more relevant information about Russian weaknesses, according to American officials.
Knowledge Is Power.
Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant shuts down safely (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-8838067037a8521e3bc764435144d8b7?taid=631d7ccd488e6d0001fb7a15&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter)
Looks like Ukraine will no longer be threatened with the prospect of nuclear meltdown.
(https://i.redd.it/8frkp8dsv4n91.png)
Red on Red: Russian fighter likely shot down by Russian AA over Crimea (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-had-probably-shot-down-their-own-su-34-in-crimea/)
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 02:56:59 PMRed on Red: Russian fighter likely shot down by Russian AA over Crimea (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-had-probably-shot-down-their-own-su-34-in-crimea/)
I remember an engineer back in the 80s say he worked on improving an Egyptian (Soviet design) Identify-Friend-or-Foe-System (IFF) and how it was unreliable crap. Basically, when a plane shows up on a missile system's RADAR, the IFF system pings the intruder and if it doesn't reply with a pre-arranged code, it's missiles away. He said instead of using a synchronous clocked design to verify the pulse trains, the circuitry relied on the propagation delays of logic gates; a characteristic that is so variable with temperature it is basically useless. It's like bad digital design 101.
This is the same country that landed image transmitting probes on Venus. I don't get it.
Russia loses roughly a battalion every day as Ukrainian counterattacks accelerate (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/11/the-russian-army-is-losing-a-battalion-every-day-as-ukrainian-counterattacks-accelerate/?sh=56b56d9d7628)
QuoteThe Russian army is losing at least a battalion's worth of vehicles and men a day as twin Ukrainian counteroffensives roll back Russian territorial gains in eastern and southern Ukraine. That's hundreds of casualties and scores of vehicle write-offs every day.
These losses are catastrophic for Russia. The Russian army barely was sustaining a little over 100 under-strength battalions in Ukraine before Kyiv's forces counterattacked in the south on Aug. 30 and in the east eight days later.
In just under two weeks of brutal fighting, the Ukrainians have destroyed, badly damaged or captured 1,200 Russian tanks, fighting vehicles, trucks, helicopters, warplanes and drones, according to the Ukrainian general staff. Independent analysts scouring social media for photos and videos have confirmed nearly 400 of the Russian losses.
Around 5,500 Russian troops have died in Ukraine since Aug. 29, according to Ukrainian officials. It's possible the Ukrainians are overstating the death toll, but it's worth noting that recent U.S. estimates of Russian losses have been only slightly lower than Ukrainian estimates.
To put these numbers into perspective, Russian losses in Ukraine have swelled by a tenth in around 10 days—in a war that's 200 days old. The rate of Russian casualties and vehicle write-offs doubled then tripled as the Ukrainians launched their counterattacks.
ISW: Ukraine's recapture of Izyum puts stop to Russia's plans in Donetsk Oblast (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569182472792940546?s=20&t=jp8VX4L-Kf2EiH6NGchtgQ)
The U.S. think tank said that Russia can no longer advance on Bakhmut or Donetsk from the north, meaning any advances towards the cities "have lost any real operational significance."
Ukraine pushes Russian troops back over the border in Kharkiv region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/12/7367082/)
(https://i.redd.it/w3l8mci98fn91.jpg)
This guy is planning on taking Kharkiv, then Kyiv, LOL. I don't think he could take a couple of kids in soccer. Definitely not in those loafers. As the Starks say, Winter Is Coming!
Mad Vlad is displeased: Russian army commander fired after just 2 weeks on the job (https://news.yahoo.com/putin-fires-army-commander-just-001352190.html)
Russian propagandist says Russian generals should be shot (https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1569012074881114112?s=20&t=NUHXPAinWXDl0QmTCiO1rA)
I agree! Fight each other as much as you want. The world is watching and laughing!
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 12, 2022, 01:57:29 PMOh, damn... looks like he flew right through the other jet's wash. Turbulence is not your friend.
Yeah, the comments say he should have kept straight as the other plane banked and then banked to rejoin the formation. That way he would've avoided flying right into the other jet's wash and then stalling out and crashing. Hindsight is 20/20.
Well, in this case hindsight is blind...
Mysterious death of Russian energy exec (https://www.newsweek.com/putins-key-man-artic-found-dead-after-falling-overboard-1742218)
Fell overboard in the Arctic Sea. So strange.
A slew of countries no longer accept Russian visas (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1569614310003060736): Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands
In temporarily occupied territories, invaders created fake curriculum that sought to justify invasion and instill Russian "values" on kids, many of whom had lost a parent (or more) to Russian aggression.
When invaders retreated, they left these "teachers" behind, who were promptly arrested by the authorities (https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1569586731573301252)
Ukraine liberating more territory, capturing invaders (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-kharkiv-a691ab16016aab01cedb68ea5e247b37)
QuoteA spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence said Russian troops were surrendering en masse as "they understand the hopelessness of their situation." A Ukrainian presidential adviser said there were so many POWs that the country was running out of space to accommodate them.
(https://i.redd.it/nqm7crqgzmn91.jpg)
$265 million usd worth
(https://i.redd.it/v0bnsdqr4mn91.png)
Unrelated to rashists getting their asses handed to them, but Twitter...
This is the third time I've had to report the same person for sending me pictures of scalped, castrated and otherwise mutilated Ukrainian soldiers; his timeline is literally just video after video of mutilated Ukrainian soldiers he is spamming at people.
Twice Twitter has told me they are going to suspend him; I check his account, and he is unbanned and continuing to spam these at people.
Third report is in, after this I have to assume that Twitter is okay with seeing mutilated corpses of Ukrainians on their site and with russian trolls harassing people with them.
Youtube, Twitter, and Chinese TikTok are the social guides of society today - help us all.
Edit - Oh, right, and his name is "Hoho Slayer" - the orcish equivalent of negro-killer.
Stay classy, Twitter, you enabling pricks.
I love that they've been using unsecured comms for well over 6 months. I think Russian "tenacity" is simply mislabeled maladaption.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 13, 2022, 11:02:32 PM
You can just call in your surrender and go home. This is so weird. But what happens when you go home?
Quote from: SGOS on September 14, 2022, 07:08:15 AMYou can just call in your surrender and go home. This is so weird. But what happens when you go home?
I expect not too much as they are just contractors...Putler didn't have the balls to mobilize and declare war for fear of internal revolt. These contract warriors are often the poorest of the poor. He used the giant wealth gap he caused to further exploit them.
Georgia looking into expelling Russian troops from their borders (https://odessa-journal.com/georgia-proposes-to-hold-a-referendum-and-ask-if-georgians-want-war-with-russia/), which would effectively mean war with Russia.
Definitely an opportune time. Either that or accept indefinite Russian control, partial loss of sovereignty, and potentially, further aggression.
Russia cancels upcoming deployments into Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/14/7367399/)
Terrible timing, but it does make some sense. There have been catastrophic morale and willingness issues, so many newly deployed units either refuse to fight or desert, leaving generals with very little to work with. It would be prudent to resolve those issues prior to deployment.
Also, there's the problem of medical care or lack thereof:
QuoteDoctors are "recommended" to give permission for planned surgical interventions only after the end of the "special operation" or with the permission of the patient's commander. According to intelligence information, there was a case of a serviceman with a ruptured eardrum and contusion being discharged from the hospital in 3 days with a diagnosis of otitis. He was refused surgery and advised "not to get a sore ear."
Surgery only at the end of the special operation? When is that?!
Also, otitis is ear infection/inflammation. A ruptured eardrum is just a tiny bit more serious than an ear infection!
A Hundred Wrecked Tanks In A Hundred Hours: Ukraine Guts Russia's Best Tank Army (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/13/a-hundred-wrecked-tanks-in-a-hundred-deadly-hours-heavy-losses-gut-russias-best-tank-army/?sh=25c92e7127a3)
QuoteA hundred wrecked or captured tanks in a hundred furious hours. That's how much destruction the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division, part of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, the Russian army's best armor formation.
Russia's finest.
And I see where Ukraine is building wooden replicas of American missile launchers, which is causing Russia to waste ordinance trying to degrade Ukrainian weapons.
🤣
Quote from: Unbeliever on September 14, 2022, 05:48:27 PMAnd I see where Ukraine is building wooden replicas of American missile launchers, which is causing Russia to waste ordinance trying to degrade Ukrainian weapons.
🤣
Not just regular ordinance, but Kalibr missiles, a powerful and accurate but expensive and extremely limited missile. To blow up wooden decoys.
Man, just thinking about it gives me wood...
💥
I served 4 years in the US Navy and another 27 years in defense as a civilian contractor. (not a combatant) We were convinced of the massive ability of the USSR up until the Berlin wall came down. They pretty much augured in after that. There is a "paper" somewhere online that explains why a dictator can't make a decent bridge (i.e., that doesn't collapse). One company I worked at was pulling some shenanigans with the quality of a process. I was working with people on a process that relied on that the afore-mentioned process, and was told that there were certain parameters for test that had to be performed within a certain time window, or the parts wouldn't pass inspection. I immediately went to my supervisor and told him. It turned into a great big investigation, with government people, and all. Point is, we have a process in this country to call out shoddy workmanship, and make the processes and products better. This mindset doesn't exist in Russia, and we're seeing the result. I suspect that that mindset that the Russians have is starting to come to roost in the US, the way a lot of (R) assholes are acting. Pork barrel is one thing, but trashing the whole country so that one can rule is another.
A dictator inherently can't trust other people, yet has to rely on them. It's an inherently unstable system.
Democracy gets ragged on a lot (frequently, by people who can't have it, so it's kind of a fox & grapes situation) as mob rule or rule by dumb people, but it's helpful to have lots of eyes on a problem, because individual people have blind spots. It turns out that the best person to make the rules for us is us. Who knew?
(https://external-preview.redd.it/dCzIQqjQEnP8yoNYda_dA7tkei2v-mr2HM8Q2sRUZcA.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=3997b260580465c545b6d65941282b4724bb2da7)
That's Zelenskyy at recently-liberated Izyum. Putin can't even walk outside without soon diving back in his Fuhrerbunker.
I expect that Zelenskyy will go down in history as one of histories all-time best loved national leaders.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 14, 2022, 09:56:31 PMA dictator inherently can't trust other people, yet has to rely on them. It's an inherently unstable system.
(https://i.redd.it/b4j63fmhyvn91.png)
Bolder.
Here's a headline I never thought I'd type: Putin worried about alcohol addiction of Russia's top leadership (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/15/7367562/)
When faced with ruin and death, alcoholism is not surprising.
Apparently the problem isn't so much the drinking as it is being noticeably drunk in public; a source of public ridicule and contempt.
In Putin's Russia, it is much worse to be noticeably incompetent than to be unnoticeably incompetent.
(https://i.redd.it/kxb1tcd2iyn91.png)
"This list is incomplete; you can help by expanding it"
I think Ukraine is trying to expand the list even now...
Luhansk "People's Republic" leader says Ukrainian troops draw closer but "no reasons to panic" (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/15/7367614/)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGtLPU_WYAANLH5.png:large)
Putin was met by China's president with a gesture of friendship that I would call luke warm:
Quote(NYT) Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said the statement appeared to telegraph "a reproach to the Russians, that they're not acting like a great power, that they are creating instability."
I don't know if it's because like the rest of the world, China sees Russia's reasons for attacking Ukraine as unjustified or because great powers are not supposed to get their asses kicked.
Quote from: SGOS on September 16, 2022, 08:24:11 AMPutin was met by China's president with a gesture of friendship that I would call luke warm:
I don't know if it's because like the rest of the world, China sees Russia's reasons for attacking Ukraine as unjustified or because great powers are not supposed to get their asses kicked.
Why not both?
Russia launches supersonic missile at Ukraine, hits Russia (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-missile-stavropol-1743351)
Ukrainian Air Force destroys six enemy aircraft over past three days (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3572779-ukrainian-air-force-destroys-six-enemy-aircraft-over-past-three-days.html)
Mysterious explosions happen at occupation buildings in Kherson and Luhansk (https://www.rferl.org/a/explosions-russia-authorities-kherson-luhansk/32036899.html)
Careless smoking?
I always thought that exploding cigarettes were a childish type of prank. The Russians are making it explode into a real art form.
"Never again"
https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1570848716080414721 (https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1570848716080414721)
Yeah, that's horrible. They found mass graves in Izyum with at least 440 bodies. Some showing clear signs of torture.
I'm happy that they're being liberated and no longer victimized by Russian nazis, but I really wish this had never happened at all. :(
(https://i.imgur.com/iWUSh1zl.png)
Recent map:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fc0Lo5kXwAYK98V?format=jpg&name=medium)
Awfully nice of them to use yellow and almost-yellow in their legend. Very helpful.
Anyway, you can practically taste the Kherson watermelons. Russian positions are also threatened in several other places - Ukrainian counteroffensives could push towards Melitopol and effectively cut Russian supply lines in a massive way. Same with a push towards Donetsk and then south towards Mariupol. And of course, Russian forces continue to lose ground east of Kharkiv and it's within the realm of possibility that this front collapses all the way to the Russian border, allowing Ukrainian soldiers the chance to secure the land border with Russia and then sweep south and west, uprooting the entire Russian presence. Anything's possible.
Personally, it's a safe assumption that Russian units continue to degrade and be hollowed out by attrition, and as the 1st Tank Guards Army found out, there's only so much attrition you can take before you're no longer able to do pretty much anything.
All Ukraine has to do is keep firing and all the Allies have to do is keep supplying Ukraine, and sooner or later, one of the above counteroffensive opportunities will present itself. Putin and his cronies are living on borrowed time and each second brings them closer to defeat.
Ammo depot near Melitopol explodes (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3573421-russian-bases-blown-up-along-with-munitions-stocks-equipment-in-occupied-melitopol-mayor.html)
Yesterday, there were explosions at a Russian airfield nearby.
Some prisoners recruited by Wagner to fight in Ukraine already captured (https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/wagner-group-russia-prisoners-captured-ukrainian-forces)
Poor training and equipment FTL. Russia cuts so many corners that their flag should be a circle.
Germany seizes three Russian oil refineries (https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/energy/rosneft-germany-oil-refineries/index.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab)
Russian units lost about half their soldiers during their withdrawal from Kharkiv region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/18/7367951/)
Ukrainian forces sink Russian barge loaded to the gills with military hardware (https://www-ukrinform-ua.translate.goog/rubric-ato/3573857-pivden-zsu-potopili-vorozu-barzu-z-vijskovou-tehnikou-ta-personalom.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Tank driver. Only a few weeks of training. Old, low-quality equipment. Never seen infantry (combined arms isn't a thing)
Russia moves air defense from St Petersburg to Ukraine (https://www-dialog-ua.translate.goog/war/258877_1663495978?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
They're creating a gap on their own air defense to shore up Ukraine. Definitely a sign that they're running low.
Also, it really puts the lie to their talking point that they're super worried about "NATO aggression". If they were truly worried, they'd pull out of Ukraine and reinforce their border.
Russia runs out of reserves (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/18/russia-has-no-reserves-left-as-ukrainian-troops-surround-a-key-eastern-town/?sh=d2095783126d)
Problems mount for Putin, Russian military spread thin (https://www.ibtimes.com/putin-failing-problems-are-mounting-russian-soldiers-running-thin-british-forces-head-3614142)
Institute for the Study of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18)
QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and formations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. ISW has previously reported that Putin has been bypassing the Russian higher military command and Ministry of Defense leadership throughout the summer and especially following the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.[1] Putin's souring relationship with the military command and the Russian (MoD) may explain in part the Kremlin's increasing focus on recruiting ill-prepared volunteers into ad-hoc irregular units rather than attempting to draw them into reserve or replacement pools for regular Russian combat units.
QuoteThe formation of such ad-hoc units will lead to further tensions, inequality, and an overall lack of cohesiveness between forces. Ukrainian and Russian sources have reported instances of Russian Armed Forces refusing to pay veteran benefits, one-time enlistment bonuses, or provide medical treatment to BARS (Russian Combat Army Reserve) servicemen.
Jeez. No medical treatment. No wonder morale is so catastrophically bad.
QuoteThe formation of irregular, hastily-trained units adds little effective combat power to Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. Forbes noted that the 3rd Army Corps rushed in to defend Russian positions around Kharkiv Oblast during the counteroffensive but failed to make any difference and "melted away."[10] The reported arrival of increasing numbers of irregular Russian forces on the battlefield has had little to no impact on Russian operations.
So basically, Putin is delusionally gambling on value-brand soldiers to save his bacon in Ukraine and doesn't yet realize that this is yet another blunder.
QuoteRussian forces are likely attempting to conduct a more deliberate and controlled withdrawal in western Kherson Oblast to avoid the chaotic flight that characterized the collapse of Russian defensive positions in Kharkiv Oblast earlier this month.
Music to my ears. Their positions might not collapse as catastrophically as they did in Kharkiv, but they're still ceding ground that Ukraine will liberate and continue to push them out.
First we do a little trolling: Wagner Telegram page prominently displays Azov logo (https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1571807901638922242)
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania close their borders to z-zombie tourists (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/baltic-states-close-borders-russians-ukraine-war-90141954)
Wagner base explodes, kills/wounds 200 nazis (https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1571579978545876994?s=20&t=4u6bAuoIUC7XGFDeT_Q0mA)
Not a catastrophic kill, but that's definitely going to void the warranty.
The Wagner recruiting website was recently hacked (https://news.yahoo.com/army-ukraine-hacks-website-wagner-190036062.html). Instead of the normal page, there are graphic pictures of dead Wagner soldiers (don't worry, the news link is sanitary and doesn't even mention that part) and the ominous message, "Ukrainian IT Army here. We now have your website personal data. Welcome to Ukraine. We're waiting for you 😈"
Suffice it to say that recruitment might slow down a bit.
Ukraine sinks Russian barge choked to the gills with war equipment again (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/ukraines_military_sank_the_second_barge_with_russian_troops_during_their_attempt_to_force_the_dnipro_river-4280.html)
Putin orders military to look into arms supplies in order to supply their forces correctly and analyze western weapons (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/20/7368302/)
Too little, too late. Years too late.
Meanwhile, US Intelligence is digging through footage, wreckage, and in some cases, captured Russian tanks, planes, drones, munitions, etc. They even have a couple working electronic warfare systems that made their way to the States courtesy of Zelensky. Russia has few secrets left.
In contrast, Putin is digging through HIMARS wreckage and has almost enough wood to build a log cabin.
The myth of Dictactor Putin as a strategic genius is quickly disintegrating (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/the-front-page-putins-blunders-run-deeper-than-ukraine/XOR7PJB7VUWU7YPL5HSQ7TDFHQ/)
As far as gas shortages go, Europe is in for a hard winter but not as hard as it could have been. Dictator Putin hatched his scheme too early, which gave Europe plenty of time to adapt (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/europe-gas-falls-again-as-nations-step-up-efforts-to-ease-crisis).
QuoteEuropean natural gas prices rebounded after three days of declines, with traders weighing whether the continent's intensified efforts to ease a winter supply crisis will be sufficient to avoid shortages.
Benchmark futures settled 6.6% higher, reversing earlier losses that saw prices fall to the lowest level since late July. Governments across the region are deploying billions of euros in funding to ensure there is enough supply, with European economic powerhouse Germany moving closer to nationalizing gas giant Uniper SE in a historic bailout.
The country is also preparing fresh credit lines for gas purchases, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz will chase new deals during his trip to the Middle East this weekend.
That builds on moves by the European Union to curb a crisis that has brought the region's economy to the brink of recession. Separately, the UK plans to slash the wholesale prices that are incorporated into business energy bills this winter, according to people familiar with the matter. That's in addition to a plan to cap household expenses for two years.
In fact, German natural gas reserves have swelled to 90% (https://www.dw.com/en/german-gas-storage-90-full-ahead-of-winter-despite-russian-cuts/a-63178397), which should help them considerably.
Poll of Ukrainians show strong support for Zelensky (81%), Ukraine armed forces (95%), integration into EU/NATO (92%, 79% respectively), and optimism towards the future (86%) (https://www.ndi.org/publications/opportunities-and-challenges-facing-ukraine-s-democratic-transition-0)
QuoteUkrainians show strong and united support for integration into the EU and NATO: 92 percent want Ukraine to join the EU, and 79 percent want Ukraine to join NATO. These views extend across all of Ukraine, south and east included, regional variations in support for Ukraine joining the EU or NATO, which were seen in previous polls, have virtually disappeared.
When they don't have guns to their heads, the south and east don't view the West any differently from Kyiv, which certainly contradicts Kremlin propaganda that there's an organic resistance to westernization there.
In fact, Russian-speaking residents in the Kharkiv region were quick to celebrate and personally thank Ukrainian forces for their liberation, expressing unmistakably genuine joy and relief. The very people the Kremlin said the Ukrainians were genociding and therefore waged war on Ukraine ostensibly to "rescue" them. How very interesting.
Tanks for the donation (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-using-abandoned-russian-tanks-in-counteroffensive-think-thank-2022-9)
Quote"The initial panic of the counteroffensive led Russian troops to abandon higher-quality equipment in working order, rather than the more damaged equipment left behind by Russian forces retreating from Kyiv in April, further indicating the severity of the Russian rout," the institute said.
They even captured a near-mint T-90 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-captures-russias-advanced-t-90m-tank-fwtkplbjq), which I'm told is at least several Ms more advanced than the T-62s with BBQ grills bolted on (really makes the radio crackle and pop) and reactive armor replaced with rubber, which I'm sure will look great strewn over some field when the turret inevitably blasts into the stratosphere.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 20, 2022, 10:43:54 PMTanks for the donation (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-using-abandoned-russian-tanks-in-counteroffensive-think-thank-2022-9)
They even captured a near-mint T-90 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-captures-russias-advanced-t-90m-tank-fwtkplbjq), which I'm told is at least several Ms more advanced than the T-62s with BBQ grills bolted on (really makes the radio crackle and pop) and reactive armor replaced with rubber, which I'm sure will look great strewn over some field when the turret inevitably blasts into the stratosphere.
Now, be fair, those turrets only make it to the mesosphere. :p
Pro-Russian Vostok battalion commander in Kherson region:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdHkKpaXgAUSocb?format=png&name=900x900)
The Russians claim they're "saving ammo" as they're getting pounded. Also, I'm pretty sure stoicism works just a little differently than just getting blasted with no response.
Dictator Putin calls for partial mobilization, tickets out of RuZZia sell out as war-fearing Russians abandon warmongering dictator (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/flights-out-russia-sell-out-after-putin-orders-partial-call-up-2022-09-21/)
Wagner recruits a literal cannibal (https://twitter.com/Callsign_Santa/status/1572424074969886723)
I bet they hope they get a generous supply of rations, 'cause when those run out...
Donner, party of five!
Trapped in Putin's RusKorea: Russian men no longer allowed to leave RuZZia (https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1572493084977422336)
Armenia, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan will no longer accept Russian Mir cards for payment (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1572547930233647108?t=_YOD_AIA8wPwOHaF8XREsQ&s=33)
Russian scientist mysteriously dies after falling down the stairs (https://twitter.com/runews/status/1572529318835949568)
🤔
I just saw that another Putin ally has died, after a fall down a lot of stairs. Seems to be dangerous to be a Putin ally...
With the way dictators treat those around them, it's mystifying that anyone ever voluntarily does anything for them.
Institute of War assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21)
QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of "partial mobilization" on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months.[1] Putin's order to mobilize part of Russia's "trained" reserve, that is, individuals who have completed their mandatory conscript service, will not generate significant usable Russian combat power for months. It may suffice to sustain the current levels of Russian military manpower in 2023 by offsetting Russian casualties, although even that is not yet clear. It will occur in deliberate phases, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview on September 21, likely precluding any sudden influx of Russian forces that could dramatically shift the tide of the war.[2] Russia's partial mobilization will thus not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate more of its occupied territory into and through the winter.
QuoteRussian reserves are poorly trained to begin with and receive no refresher training once their conscription period is completed. Russian mandatory military service is only one year, which gives conscripts little time to learn how to be soldiers, to begin with. The absence of refresher training after that initial period accelerates the degradation of learned soldier skills over time. Shoigu referred to the intent of calling up reservists with "combat experience," but very few Russian reservists other than those now serving in Ukraine have any combat experience.
QuotePutin's speech should not be read as an explicit threat that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if Ukraine continues counter-offensives against occupied territories after annexation.
QuoteRussia's partial mobilization will not transform the war this year and may or may not have a significant impact on Russia's ability to continue operations at their current level next year. Ukraine and the West should neither dismiss it nor exaggerate it.
How do average Russians feel about the partial mobilization? Varying levels of dislike, bordering on violent resistance at times.
Putin has definitely made yet another strategic error, and this one certainly has the potential to blossom into a fatal error, especially if he starts general conscription.
Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia can't train or support them (https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/22/europe/russia-mobilization-logistics-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html)
Many Ukranian POWs freed from Russian captivity (https://twitter.com/ZelenskaUA/status/1572709308147826688?s=20&t=m6nPMtH_nKdGZ9iQHTa5SQ)
(https://i.redd.it/nwot45z9l9p91.png)
It's all fun and games till you're stuck in a T-62.
Edit - also, "finding" millions of conscripts in prisons is nothing to be proud of, it's in fact living proof of a country gone wrong, and this is coming from an American
QuoteEdit - also, "finding" millions of conscripts in prisons is nothing to be proud of, it's in fact living proof of a country gone wrong, and this is coming from an American
This to the hundredth degree - every time they try to bring America up, it's just like... "Yes, I'm aware of this; and even I am looking at you and going, 'Damn, being American isn't all that bad actually.'."
The 2000s might go down as the "Era of the Projections".
Quote from: Shiranu on September 22, 2022, 06:36:10 PMThis to the hundredth degree - every time they try to bring America up, it's just like... "Yes, I'm aware of this; and even I am looking at you and going, 'Damn, being American isn't all that bad actually.'."
The 2000s might go down as the "Era of the Projections".
I have an image saved up for the inevitable whataboutism:
(https://i.redd.it/66axbfdq0gn91.jpg)
A train full of T-62 tanks explodes near Donetsk City (https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1573012679953981440)
I thought this was old news, but apparently it's brand new. The one I was thinking about was back in August (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/08/04/the-ukrainian-army-just-blew-up-a-russian-ammo-train-the-fourth-of-the-war/?sh=57e7e906b508) and that was the 4th one so far. Russian high command sure knows how to mass-produce mistakes. Though they're T-62s, so it's not like Russia lost anything valuable.
Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down (https://www.newsweek.com/video-shows-russian-alligator-chopper-fall-sky-after-ukraine-strike-1745527)
A "flying tank", they say. Well, there are plenty of tank wrecks in Ukraine, too.
Russian losses exceed 56k, lost 550 troops and 18 tanks in the last 24 hours (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/23/7368711/)
(https://i.redd.it/eq1o3vjztkp91.png)
Russians sell military vehicle to Ukraine (https://english.nv.ua/nation/mykolayiv-governor-shares-video-of-sold-russian-afv-ukraine-news-50272031.html)
No credit, no problem! At Discount Zel's, we'll give you cash for your clunkers! Worn out chinese tires? No problem! Hit a tree? No problem! Drive into a lake? No problem! Turret toss? No problem! We will not be undersold! Come get a Lada without paying a latta!
Russia - World's Second Strongest Army*
*hobo army.
Quality of the Drafties (https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1573678948738809856)
(https://i.imgur.com/B9uwwC0l.jpeg)
Bunker Vlad pisses himself in fear every day this war drags on and goes more and more poorly. He knows the last bullet in this war is for him.
It's time for the Polonium cat for Putin...
(http://i.imgur.com/lS5U178.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/zne3xzragzp91.png)
Four planes yesterday, quite a haul.
Two Russian T-90 tanks spotted in Kharkiv region (https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1573875873043849218?s=20&t=15Ji-S3LPnYfSvgzMjhb1A), but they appear to be disabled/abandoned
One is spinning tracks that no longer touch the ground and the other appears to have partially fallen into a pond.
They're badly in need of a tractor to tow them out...
Russian losses graphed (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1TTgqwy8_kTA7RCpJg_fdaXLGP3ey5HzKoN0hVgJW9yo/htmlview#)
(https://i.redd.it/kdrhp464nyp91.jpg)
I think we can safely say that Ukraine is a risky stay.
(https://preview.redd.it/p20drfwdwcp91.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=fa77c454501484ba1d8cd2fb82b5783ceae5d542)
(https://i.imgur.com/v7wcRDul.png)
This is going to end in absolute disaster.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 25, 2022, 11:07:44 PM(https://i.imgur.com/v7wcRDul.png)
This is going to end in absolute disaster.
Hiding behind the infirm, the elderly, the mentally handicapped... behind ethnic minorities, behind people you denied the most basic of human rights...
Truly the nation of gigachads who wrestle bears bare-chested and out macho the entire West with one drop of God-light-shined-upon sweat.
It looks almost as if they're trying to genocide Russians as much as they're trying to genocide Ukrainians.
At the beginning of this, I though Ukraine would fall in a matter of weeks. Now I'm perplexed by Russia. they seem beaten already. Why are they hanging on throwing good money after bad? but then I was wrong about Ukraine. I also wonder if Russia's nuclear capability is in as poor disrepair as their conventional equipment.
All my life, I've considered Russia to be a formidable power. Even after the fall of the Soviet Empire, I still thought they were formidable. Now I'm not so sure. Have we been led to believe this for some reason? I remember before we invaded Iraq, the media reported that Iraq was something like the fourth strongest military power in the world. But Saddam's formidable Republican Guard was running for cover and shedding their uniforms without hardly firing a shot when American troops first stepped over the border.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 25, 2022, 06:53:34 PM(https://i.redd.it/kdrhp464nyp91.jpg)
I think we can safely say that Ukraine is a risky stay.
Let 'em all go to North Korea.
Quote from: SGOS on September 26, 2022, 05:10:28 AMAll my life, I've considered Russia to be a formidable power. Even after the fall of the Soviet Empire, I still thought they were formidable. Now I'm not so sure. Have we been led to believe this for some reason?
It's not just you who's stunned. On paper, Russia is very formidable. In fact, they gambled on it by rushing to Kyiv instead of more cautiously conducting an offensive. That miscalculation cost them some of their most elite units.
They never properly established air superiority or properly supplied their invasion or properly trained the majority of their soldiers. Their tanks were defeated by mud and manpads and drones.
So plan B was simple - regroup, bring all their artillery to bear, flatten Ukraine meter by meter, and rule the ashes. And it worked for a while until it didn't. Ukraine is now outranging them and Russia can't properly compete in an artillery duel nor can they properly supply their artillery. So they've been losing this phase of the war and been losing in weeks territory that took them months to conquer.
For months, Russian leadership has been trying to eat its cake and have it too - fighting a war without mobilization or being on a war footing.
Time and time again, the Russian military has failed on every level - corruption, logistics, operation security, training, morale, equipment, etc.
At the same time, we should recognize that Ukraine has really improved since 2014. They've also had the vast majority of the world supporting them. This has seen them through the worst days and given them enormous capabilities - capabilities earned through their steadfast resolve and unwavering dedication.
Russia is formidable, but the fighting spirit of Ukranians combined with international aid is a practically unbeatable combination.
Russia grants citizenship to Snowden (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-grants-russian-citizenship-us-whistleblower-edward-snowden-2022-09-26/)
I bet he's estatic about his choice of country about now.
Russia lost an entire company today in heavy fighting near Bakmut (https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1574420400682852352)
Ukraine blew up a drone training center, killing 20 Iranians and 40 Russians (https://www-dialog-ua.translate.goog/war/259339_1664162315?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Coulda sat by the sidelines and not be bribed to do Putin's bidding. Besides, Iran has its own problems
(https://i.redd.it/05b7jculy8q91.jpg)
When these bad boys hit the front lines, the Ukrainians won't stand a chance! /S 😂
Okay, evidentially I haven't been paying attention. What's with Zorro the Gay Blade?
Quote from: the_antithesis on September 26, 2022, 11:41:15 PMOkay, evidentially I haven't been paying attention. What's with Zorro the Gay Blade?
The Z markings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z_(military_symbol))? They mostly seem to allow Russian units to broadly identify where they're from and to identify themselves as Russian to friendly forces (incidentally, also enemy forces) so friendly forces don't accidentally fire on them (spoiler: friendly forces do fire on them surprisingly often)
Latest Kharkiv counterattack map:
(https://preview.redd.it/w814tph5e7q91.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=765c889df80f4446d7f543bde76c5bb5e72934f4)
As you can see, two tendrils of Ukrainian forces are coming towards Lyman, one very close to the north and one farther away to the north. Before long, Russian forces will be encircled. At that point, they can either take the road straight east out of Lyman or stand their ground. Kind of a lose-lose-worse situation. Lyman is an important logistical hub for that region and its loss will cause Russian forces in that area to endure further logistical problems.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 26, 2022, 02:32:11 PMRussia lost an entire company today in heavy fighting near Bakmut (https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1574420400682852352)
Apparently, that was the last company from the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/26/the-ukrainian-army-reportedly-destroyed-another-russian-division/?sh=3d2745b75e9c). So it's looking like that division has gone extinct. A Russian division is roughly 8,000 - 9,000 troops.
Some of the newly mobilized forces are already cargo 200 (KIA) (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1574338800754610176?s=20&t=yiAElJSG2V-MVBpy_keUAw)
A train carrying Russian troops was hit by Ukrainian artillery in the Luhansk region. No doubt their scant training (if any) was insufficient to prepare them for the Ukraine experience.
Russian colonel buried in Russia (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-colonel-killed-in-himars-strike-in-ukraine-50272695.html), reportedly killed by a HIMARS strike in Izyum just prior to the counteroffensive that saw it liberated
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 27, 2022, 12:56:59 AMLatest Kharkiv counterattack map:
As you can see, two tendrils of Ukrainian forces are coming towards Lyman
I hate the icons on that map. It looks like the Ukrainians are going the wrong way.
Russia's border with Georgia has a huge backlog of Russians (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/27/russia-mobilization-satellite-images-traffic-border-georgia/) fleeing from the consequences of their own war of aggression.
In response, Russia has deployed a mobile conscription office on its border with Georgia (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/27/7369234/)
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is struggling (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstan-struggles-accommodate-russians-fleeing-war-2022-09-27/) to accomodate the somehow simultaneously war-weary and war-mongering refugees.
It should be noted that Kazakhstan got threatened by Russians for not being pro-war enough and now is working hard to house and provide for Russians.
And Finland closed its border and recommends building a fence (https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/22246-uutissuomalainen-finnish-border-guard-recommends-fencing-parts-of-border-with-russia.html) along part of its border.
Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines experienced a sudden drop in pressure recently and now officials believe it was likely a targetted attack (https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-suspects-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-attacked-russia-europe-reports-2022-9)
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 27, 2022, 12:41:09 AMThe Z markings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z_(military_symbol))? They mostly seem to allow Russian units to broadly identify where they're from and to identify themselves as Russian to friendly forces (incidentally, also enemy forces) so friendly forces don't accidentally fire on them (spoiler: friendly forces do fire on them surprisingly often)
So the Gay Blade works.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 27, 2022, 09:41:43 AMAnd Finland closed its border and recommends building a fence (https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/22246-uutissuomalainen-finnish-border-guard-recommends-fencing-parts-of-border-with-russia.html) along part of its border.
Maybe they could get some advice from Trump on how to build a wall.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 27, 2022, 09:58:09 AMNordstream 1 and 2 pipelines experienced a sudden drop in pressure recently and now officials believe it was likely a targetted attack (https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-suspects-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-attacked-russia-europe-reports-2022-9)
Out of all the countries in Europe, they decided to pick on Denmark, Sweden, Poland and Norway with this chemical attack...
Russia really likes to try punching up...
Quote from: Unbeliever on September 27, 2022, 05:11:33 PMMaybe they could get some advice from Trump on how to build a wall.
I worry that Ukrainian refugees in Europe could be harassed/harmed by Russians, either already living there or moving there to evade mobilization. Theoretically, they both should have a lot in common - slavic ethnicity, soviet history, this war has upended both their lives, etc. But in practice, Russians have been fed a lot of disinfo about Ukrainians and that kind of stuff has lingering effects.
For now, I'm glad that they're mostly going to different countries, though I hear some Azov higher-ups have agreed to stay in Turkey until the end of the war as a condition of release from Russian captivity and Turkey is a popular destination for Russian refugees. So the odds of them bumping into each other are not zero.
This whole situation is a bit odd. Could you imagine in WWII a country taking in Jewish refugees and then taking in German possibly-nazis not long after? Like in some sort of Paperclip Operation? That'd be wild!
(https://preview.redd.it/pnwonyodfdq91.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=5ed9a623b55b2c5e5ba8343d7ad59a3f8441154c)
(https://i.imgur.com/v1YlnJDl.png)
Russian conscript almost immediately surrenders to Ukrainian forces (https://www.newsweek.com/mobilized-conscripted-russian-soldier-surrenders-ukraine-war-1746942)
Quote"Soldiers of the 92nd brigade captured a frightened, frozen 'mobilized soldier' in the forest near Kupyansk [in eastern Ukraine]. He deserted from his military unit and tried to return to Russia, but got lost,"
Dafuq. How on Earth did he get lost? What is he, Mike from Blair Witch? Even if you don't have a map (because you kicked it into the creek), you can literally just head straight east and eventually get to Russia. Well, at least he didn't make camp in a radioactive forest where all the trees are dead and unnaturally bright red. That's some Eastern Plaguelands stuff right there.
QuoteThe Russian man said that he was captured by Ukrainian forces on his third day of serving, and that he had only seen the commander of his unit once.
Yikes.
Ukraine destroys electronic warfare/jamming station in Kharkiv region (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/ukraines_btr_4e_destroys_russias_radio_station_with_precie_hit_video-4359.html). Third one to go up since the start of the war. They've also captured some, and a least one was sent to the US for study.
Ukraine to receive Titan anti-drone technology (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-will-receive-titan-counter-uav-systems-from-the-usa/)
This essentially analyzes the drone automatically, then jams it, forcing the drone to land or return to base.
The base can then be discovered and shelled.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 29, 2022, 06:46:38 AMUkraine to receive Titan anti-drone technology (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-will-receive-titan-counter-uav-systems-from-the-usa/)
This essentially analyzes the drone automatically, then jams it, forcing the drone to land or return to base.
The base can then be discovered and shelled.
That's cool. Send us your drones so we can track them.
Wagner commander kia near Bakhmut (https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1575471774237589509)
Rosenburgs: two US doctors arrested attempting to provide Russia with senstitive medical data (https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/community/criminal-justice/johns-hopkins-doctor-and-spouse-an-army-doctor-indicted-for-trying-to-leak-medical-information-to-russia-TVCKU2TGUJB7JIH7M6D4GKMHZ4/)
QuoteAnna Gabrielian and Jamie Lee Henry, who had a secret security clearance as a doctor at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, communicated and met several times with an undercover FBI agent who they believed was from the Russian embassy, offering sensitive medical information on military members and their families, the indictment alleges.
QuoteDuring an initial Aug. 17 meeting in a Baltimore hotel room, Gabrielian told the agent she was "motivated by patriotism toward Russia to provide any assistance she could to Russia, even if it meant being fired or going to jail."
Quote"My point of view is until the United States actually declares war against Russia, I'm able to help as much as I want," Henry, 39, told the agent, according to the indictment. "At that point, I'll have some ethical issues I'll have to work through."
"You'll work through those ethical issues," Gabrielian replied.
Spoiler: those ethical issues were not worked through properly.
From there, it gets crazier and crazier, with that person wanting to volunteer to fight for Russia, saying that breaking HIPPA is fine because they break the law all the time, and wanting the kids to "go on vacation" to Turkey if things go sideways (Why are Russians so fixated on Turkey lately?)
(https://i.redd.it/j4zd0cjm0yq91.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/pkluuphdvxq91.jpg)
DIY medical care. So stingy!
Ex-NSA employee tried to give classified information to the Russians (https://www.denverpost.com/2022/09/29/jareh-dalke-nsa-espionage-charges/)
Charged with three violations of the Espionage Act, which are very serious charges
Ukrainian forces encircle Lyman (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/30/7369764/)
There were reports that some Russian forces made a last minute retreat, but 2k-3k are still there and now are trapped afaik.
Ukraine officially applies to join NATO (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-applying-nato-membership-2022-09-30/) on an accelerated timetable
Families of Russian mobilized troops given a sheep and sack of potatoes as compensation (https://myc.news/en/novosti_mira/ravnocennyj_obmen_v_tuve_za_mobilizovannogo_muzhchinu_dayut_barana)
I can't help but picture Borat doing the exchange.
(https://i.redd.it/tqoo8ssjx5r91.png)
Over 5000 Russian troops encircled at Lyman (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3583633-over-5000-russian-troops-end-up-in-lyman-pocket-haidai.html)
Evidently, I had assumed more had retreated than actually had.
And without immediate reinforcement, they're sure to be overrun and either killed or captured (this assessment was from yesterday, so their fate has already been decided, through action or inaction)
There's a blog from an American volunteer in the Ukrainian foreign legion, and I'll spare you the gory details, but there is intense and chaotic fighting near Lyman.
He's seen a lot of dead/dying Russians, all extremely poorly supplied - no med kits, only a tiny amount of ammo and/or food with them.
Ukrainian/international forces are faring better, but they have to get more ammo frequently and are traumatized by seeing so much death. He personally says he's "sick of killing people" so I'm guessing that things aren't going well for the Russians.
In-depth look at the reasons for Russia's mobilization, the mobilization itself, and its implications.
Russia has suffered a huge manpower shortage for quite a few years (Russia is not the Soviet Union), which is why it has relied heavily on mercenaries in recent conflicts. And Ukraine inflicted more casualties than this sort of system could cope with, which Russia tried and failed to lessen by exhausting LPR/DPR forces and forming "Frankenunits" of sailors working as tank units. Russia simply had no other choice but to mobilize.
Also, the fake referendum scheme, which is itself kind of a euphemistic term, like saying that a person was fake "gifting" their jewelry to another person (the fact that the other person is holding a gun is conspicuously absent and it's obviously not correct to call this a "gift" at all, even a phony gift - it's just straight robbery) - where was I? Oh yes, the land-stealing scheme was also necessary from the russian pov because it legally allowed mobilization of "russian" forces (aka Ukrainians living in temporarily-occupied ukraine) without the explicit declaration of war.
Why Putin is so keen on avoiding declaration of war is beyond me but the answer probably rhymes with mullet.
From the outset, mobilization has not been going smoothly. Some regions, notably Dagestan, are decidedly NOT happy about it. A lot of these recruits are quite old, poorly trained and provisioned (a consistent mistake). Quite a few have already surrendered or been killed fruitlessly. Add to that the prospect of new recruits simply fragging their commanders or staging insurrections (they know they're being used as cannon fodder, so there's nothing left to lose). I came across an interesting video of a new recruit who identified as a Tartar and if I understand correctly, part of a Tartar separatist organization, who vowed to do everything in his power to destroy the "special operation" from the inside out. Not going smoothly is an understatement.
Mark my words, this will all come crashing down on Putin's head before long.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 01, 2022, 02:21:01 PMIn-depth look at the reasons for Russia's mobilization, the mobilization itself, and its implications.
Mark my words, this will all come crashing down on Putin's head before long.
Also..gonna be a tampon shortage in Russia.
The craziest thing about the mobilization is that the authorities ask conscripts to bring a lot of their own gear and then that stuff sometimes gets stolen by the very same authorities!
On day one, you start off with a strong and justified resentment of the authorities. I can certainly see why military hardware gets sold to the Ukrainians - for payback reasons alone.
I swear, the smartest Russian soldier in this conflict is that guy who sold his tank to Ukraine. That guy got $10,000 in his pocket, a comfortable and safe place to live, and a real chance at Ukrainian citizenship. That beats pretty much every other outcome by a wide margin, especially the likely ones.
ISW assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1)
QuoteUkrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1.
QuoteThe defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin – who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground – is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources consistently indicate that Russian forces continued to reinforce Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, despite the recent collapse of the Kharkiv-Izyum front and even as the Russian positions around Lyman collapsed.[6] The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin's, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.
General Hitler over here calling the shots, no wonder Kharkiv-Izyum-Lyman collapsed while he shored up Kherson and Zaporizhia. That dude is so obsessed with Crimea that he let a passed pawn through Kharkiv region. He walks right into blunder after blunder, sacrificing troops daily. Eventually, he won't have an army left. Then he really will lose Kherson and then Crimea shortly afterwards.
(https://i.redd.it/h43c1lkeybr91.jpg)
Lyman completely cleared of Russians. Putin's refusal to withdraw got 1,500 Russians killed (https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1576351207571922944?s=20&t=qWjL3fVmXRNxtwgJ6S0fBQ)
Now Ukrainian forces are shelling Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Kreminna, Sievierodonetsk (https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1576257313840644096)
Russia captured those territories at great cost during intense fighting. Arguably, this is what changed the tide of the war prior to HIMARS - Putin sold so many Russian lives cheaply that invader forces were no longer able to really go on the offensive since.
Now they don't have enough troops left to hold on to what they've captured. To top it all off, Ukrainian capabilities have risen considerably - better artillery, better UAVs, better training, spy satellites, etc. At the same time, Russian capabilities have dwindled - loss of trained/experienced personnel, continuous loss of ammo depots, degradation of armor/air/artillery, undermanned and exhausted units, etc.
Earlier, there was footage of the Russians burying strange containers in the ground and the worry was that they were planning to use chemical weapons.
Turns out they were actually burying sea mines in order to detonate them for a "Ukrainian ammo depot" explosion video (https://nitter.net/Rinegati/status/1576510529388302337).
That's an awful lot of work for something of such limited usefulness. They must be desperate for good news.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 01, 2022, 02:21:01 PMMark my words, this will all come crashing down on Putin's head before long.
I'm very much afraid this will all come crashing down on every one of our heads before long. If Putin realizes he has no chance of "winning" this war he may very well set off a worldwide nuclear conflagration, and then it will be over for most of the biosphere. But a new biosphere will evolve to replace it (eventually). I can only hope the next intelligent species (if there ever is one) can do better.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 02, 2022, 08:27:56 PMIf Putin realizes he has no chance of "winning" this war he may very well set off a worldwide nuclear conflagration, and then it will be over for most of the biosphere. But a new biosphere will evolve to replace it (eventually). I can only hope the next intelligent species (if there ever is one) can do better.
I've had this conversation with relatives more times then I can count (like The Architect, I've grown exceedingly efficient at it) but basically, if/when Putin senses he can't win, the obvious move is to sue for peace. Right now, both sides believe they can win (hence the mobilization), so peace isn't really on the table. Personally, I very much doubt Putin will live long enough to broker such a peace.
Let me ask you this, would Russia launching nukes get Putin anything he wants? Would he get any part of Ukraine? Would he stay in power? Would he stay alive? Would Russia exist? Putin literally hides in a bunker much of the time from a war that is largely not even in his own country. Do you really think that this is a courageous, self-sacrificial person? Do you think everyone involved the process of dropping the bomb is suicidal?
They may be despotic and cruel, but at the end of the day, these are rational actors, people with families, same as you and me. In fact, Putin's policy of carving out parts of neighboring countries (while at the same time not risking Muscovites on the battlefield) is precisely fueled by a rational decision-making process - it works (usually). Russia takes land and resources, Russia endures whatever sanctions come its way, rinse and repeat. It's an inherently piecemeal, risk-averse process. That should tell you something.
Brinksmanship makes frightening headlines and the media loves frightening headlines. And the prospect of a tactical (not strategic) nuclear weapons on Ukraine has been credibly raised. But would its use be consistent with Russian war aims? ISW weighs in (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1):
"Kadyrov's call for using tactical nuclear weapons is likely inconsistent with his demands to continue the "special military operation" to bring more Ukrainian territory under Russian control. The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the necessary equipment and has historically trained its units to do so. The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment. Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassable for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use."
Basically, nukes of any kind would make it impossible for Russian forces to function and Russia faces credible consequences of NATO annihilation of remaining Russian naval forces bare minimum. Not much incentive.
What nuke talk does do is stoke fear and panic in the enemy, reliably exacerbated by fearmongering media, while at the same time stoking patriotic and nationalistic sentiment among Putin's domestic audience. That's why Putin is talking about nukes, not firing them.
The real thing to be worried about is what happens to Russia's nukes when Russia collapses.
There was a transfer of a whole bunch of the then-USSR's nuclear materials to the US after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, simply to keep it out of nefarious people's hands. I'd like to think that sane heads would prevail again, and result in a safe transfer of the rest of Russia's arsenal to neutral ground. I'm in no way sure that the US should have them, though. But whom else should the world trust?
I worry about WWIII also, but I don't think it's going to happen this time around. When it does happen it will be a surprise to me, even if I think it's inevitable .
Ukraine has liberated yet more territory, recapturing more territory around Lyman as well as an unexpected push on the eastern part of Kherson region, capturing in just a few hours an area roughly equivalent in size to Guam.
1.5 million Russian winter uniforms mysteriously vanish (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1576615100395331585)
It's gonna be a brutal winter in Ukraine without those.
Apparently, Russian forces begged for air support on Telegram (https://mobile.twitter.com/ralee85/status/1576662243953217536) (the equivalent of asking people on Facebook how to give CPR)
And surprise surprise, the russian air force just let them twist in the wind:
(https://i.redd.it/lmpdycdphir91.jpg)
I get the feeling that they're worried about something other than the weather...
Yes, "weather" they're going to run into a hail of lead.
I'll be here all week...
Quote from: SGOS on October 03, 2022, 07:36:27 AMI worry about WWIII also, but I don't think it's going to happen this time around. When it does happen it will be a surprise to me, even if I think it's inevitable .
Even if we don't go out with a bang due to nuclear war, we'll go out with a whimper due to climate change.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 03, 2022, 08:45:07 PMEven if we don't go out with a bang due to nuclear war, we'll go out with a whimper due to climate change.
Haven't seen 'endgame' yet, but honestly i sometimes find myself wondering if i'd pull a thanos if i could. With my own life having the same odds, i might. If i were guaranteed survival, i don't think i could do the snap.
Though i might have to kill myself afterwards out of sheer guilt.
Quick question, spoilerfree if possible please, does the movie adres that way more than half of the population would wind up dead due to a snap?
Law of averages would dictate that in quite a few planes both pilotes would turn to dust.
A doctor in middle of an operation.
Truck drivers and normal drivers barelling down the highway.
Monitors of a powerplant, poof gone.
And so on...
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on October 04, 2022, 03:35:58 AMQuick question, spoilerfree if possible please, does the movie adres that way more than half of the population would wind up dead due to a snap?
By the time that happened in the film, I was so overcome/engrossed by the abundance of conflict and confusion that I never gave such details a second thought. Actually, I think the fact that there are so many unexplained details like this in the Marvel Universe that I would consider it good form and keeping with the feel of its Comic Book Origins. I wouldn't let it pass so easily in more serious action drama, however.
... Or God forbid, anyone's religious beliefs.
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on October 04, 2022, 03:35:58 AMHaven't seen 'endgame' yet, but honestly i sometimes find myself wondering if i'd pull a thanos if i could. With my own life having the same odds, i might. If i were guaranteed survival, i don't think i could do the snap.
Though i might have to kill myself afterwards out of sheer guilt.
Quick question, spoilerfree if possible please, does the movie adres that way more than half of the population would wind up dead due to a snap?
Law of averages would dictate that in quite a few planes both pilotes would turn to dust.
A doctor in middle of an operation.
Truck drivers and normal drivers barelling down the highway.
Monitors of a powerplant, poof gone.
And so on...
Nope. I have other questions too. Like, what qualifies as a "life?" If a pregnant woman is snapped away, does her baby go with her, or does an underdeveloped baby just dropped to the ground? Do viruses count as "life" in this exchange? What about gut bacteria? Sponges are technically colonies. Does the whole sponge disappear, or just half of it? Does intelligent AI qualify as life?
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on October 04, 2022, 03:35:58 AMHaven't seen 'endgame' yet, but honestly i sometimes find myself wondering if i'd pull a thanos if i could. With my own life having the same odds, i might. If i were guaranteed survival, i don't think i could do the snap.
Though i might have to kill myself afterwards out of sheer guilt.
Quick question, spoilerfree if possible please, does the movie adres that way more than half of the population would wind up dead due to a snap?
Law of averages would dictate that in quite a few planes both pilotes would turn to dust.
A doctor in middle of an operation.
Truck drivers and normal drivers barelling down the highway.
Monitors of a powerplant, poof gone.
And so on...
A culling would not overturn the root causes of climate change, and therefore would not solve the problem. In fact, such a move would likely cause a huge amount of secondary problems that likely would result in several ecological incidents. For example, you can't just erase half of all vegetation in a prairie without doing some serious damage.
And the movie explored some of this (many planes do in fact fall out of the sky) but left a lot of it unaddressed.
Russian lines in Kherson region continue to collapse, allowing Ukrainian forces to liberate 950km2 territory, almost twice what they liberated yesterday.
Ukrainian forces continue to advance from the NE, joined by Ukrainian forces creating a bridgehead over the Inhulets river and advancing from the N and NW (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1577260136908800000), essentially flanking Russian positions.
Quote from: Blackleaf on October 04, 2022, 10:00:25 AMNope. I have other questions too. Like, what qualifies as a "life?" If a pregnant woman is snapped away, does her baby go with her, or does an underdeveloped baby just dropped to the ground? Do viruses count as "life" in this exchange? What about gut bacteria? Sponges are technically colonies. Does the whole sponge disappear, or just half of it? Does intelligent AI qualify as life?
Also, what are we defining as "life"? In many animist traditions, rocks, trees, mountains, rivers and otherwise "inanimate" items are as alive as you and me.
Maybe the stones used Thanos' interpretation of life, which would I guess answer that question.
Elon, Russia would like to have Alaska back. OK with you?
Quote from: Cassia on October 04, 2022, 02:08:43 PMElon, Russia would like to have Alaska back. OK with you?
As long as Sahara Palin went with it!
Quote from: Cassia on October 04, 2022, 02:08:43 PMElon, Russia would like to have Alaska back. OK with you?
I was hoping not to address it, but yeah, Elon really stepped in it this time. In his mind, he's just trying to end the violence by drawing up "fair" terms that both sides are unhappy with, but splitting the diff between Russia's war aims (genocide, dissolution of Ukraine, exploitation of Ukraine's natural resources) and Ukraine's war aims (cessation of invasion and associated genocide) is essentially light genocide with significant amounts of land theft, which is not okay.
Russia loses 44 tanks, 27 armored personnel vehicles in a single day (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-loses-tanks-armored-vehicle-ukraine-single-day-retreat-latest-update-1748617#Echobox=1664894934)
From a Russian soldier with the 205th Separate Motorized Brigade:
(https://preview.redd.it/evjyy3glmur91.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=c3a6ca994487c2e74c6f8f7cbc4b841d40909a3a)
Note the initial confident defense turned into a full-scale retreat, the promised but missing reinforcements, and the utter lack of C&C. So basically, it's every man for himself.
Quote from: Blackleaf on October 04, 2022, 10:00:25 AMNope. I have other questions too. Like, what qualifies as a "life?" If a pregnant woman is snapped away, does her baby go with her, or does an underdeveloped baby just dropped to the ground? Do viruses count as "life" in this exchange? What about gut bacteria? Sponges are technically colonies. Does the whole sponge disappear, or just half of it? Does intelligent AI qualify as life?
Those are the very questions that keep me awake at night! 😵�💫
(https://i.redd.it/8xa6lwaraxr91.jpg)
The entire southern front is lit up like a Christmas tree. You can practically taste those Kherson watermelons.
Czech Republic decided that Kallingrad wanted to be annexed (https://visitkralovec.cz)
(it's a joke, a parody of Dictator Putin's imperialist mindset)
Russian officiers flee north of Kherson, abandon soldiers (https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1577618016950419456)
Russian Ministry of Truth redraws maps, claims it has always been this way (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/russias_ministry_of_defense_showed_own_retreat_and_the_collapse_of_the_front_in_kherson_oblast_and_drew_a_new_defense_line_in_kharkiv_oblast-4434.html) 🤡
A thief can sneak onto your property and grab some stuff. That's the easy part, but when the owners come home and find you still hanging around, you are lucky to be shown the door. It takes more than a written document from the thief saying he has annexed the silverware so it really belongs to him.
Putin's formal annexations are even more laughable that George Bush landing on an aircraft carrier 3 days into the Iraq invasion and declaring, "Mission Accomplished!"
Please clap: Russian propaganda speech about "holy war" on a country that didn't attack Russia has added fake applause (https://www.newsweek.com/putin-annexation-speech-fake-cheers-supporters-buses-moscow-1748633)
The unedited footage is much more subdued and far less bloodthirsty. People seem more confused than excited.
Ukrainian Department of Defense video (https://i.imgur.com/vEfJkIY.mp4): 700000 Russians flee Russia to escape war
Dictator Putin gives Steven Seagal land reserved for children with cancer (https://www.newsweek.com/steven-seagal-actor-land-russia-putin-moscow-sick-children-1748860)
Every time I think Putin's hit a new low...
And how did Steven Seagal "earn" this "honor"? Back when Russia shelled a POW camp to massacre POWs while finger-pointing at Ukraine, Seagal went on the scene to shoot propaganda videos for Putin (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/steven-seagal-russian-propaganda).
I've always considered Steven Seagal to be an ass. My opinion hasn't changed with this information. Maybe he could go to Russia and he and Putin could 69?
My wife has hated Steven Seagal forever. Thought he was just a prick. She was right.
Quote from: ferdmonger on October 05, 2022, 08:50:16 PMMy wife has hated Steven Seagal forever. Thought he was just a prick. She was right.
I applaud your wife!!!
Guys! I've figured out what Putin is trying to do. I can't believe we didn't see it earlier. He wants to lose the war. It's all part of his plan. He's masterfully guiding his forces to failure. Then once his entire army is dead, and all their weapons gone, Ukraine will be like, "Hey, look! They're defenseless! We should invade them back!"
(https://media.tenor.com/sP4SQzZ4I1AAAAAM/minecraft-free-real-estate.gif)
So then, Ukraine expands its territory into Russia, completely unopposed. Putin puts his hands up, surrenders, and says, "Okay, guys. You win. Russia is now a part of Ukraine." Then, Putin rigs the next election, he becomes President again, and BOOM! Ukraine is his. He gets exactly what he wants. It's the perfect plan.
Seagal built his career on acting like a jerk. Maybe it just came naturally. I never actually understood how he got roles in Hollywood that glorified being a jerk. I guess it's ok of you a tough jerk.
Quote from: SGOS on October 06, 2022, 05:54:59 AMSeagal built his career on acting like a jerk. Maybe it just came naturally. I never actually understood how he got roles in Hollywood that glorified being a jerk. I guess it's ok of you a tough jerk.
I gave one of his movies 10 minutes. I actually enjoyed a Bruce Lee movie and maybe a Jackie Chan flick as well but Seagal or Damme Van, not so much.
Chuck Norris walked into chemistry class and ripped the Periodic Table of Elements off of the wall. Why? Because the only element Chuck Norris needs is the element of surprise.George Lucas couldn't cast Chuck Norris as Luke Skywalker in the original Star Wars trilogy...
If he did, it would be only 8 minutes long. 7 of those minutes are for the intros and credits.
Ukraine no longer low on ammo because Russia has generously donated so much during their retreats (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-ends-artillery-shortage-by-taking-from-fleeing-russians-wsj-2022-10)
Thing about so-called tough guys is they have skin about one atom thick. Bullies tend to act that way to hide how weak they are. Kinda like Trump.
(https://i.redd.it/934ikd75o7s91.png)
Man has a way with words.
Ukraine breaks 3rd Army Corps (https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukraines_armed_forces_erase_3rd_army_corps_of_10_12_thousands_troops_within_month_kremlin_panicky_gathers_people_to_fight-4443.html)
This was the one I was worried about. 10k+ troops. Better equipment. 4 months of gathering. Yet after just one month of fighting, it faulters. Why?
Quoteobsolete technologies and demoralized personnel, who abused alcohol, disobeyed the commanders and willfully left their positions. In addition, Russia's lack of experienced officers who can deal with equipment and staff right.
[lightly edited for grammar]
During the Kharkiv offensive, the 3rd Corps broke just as quickly as other units and did not seem any more well equipped or trained than any other Russian unit, and suffered from identical problems.
Russian soldiers calling surrender hotline en masse (https://www.jpost.com/international/article-719111)
The hotline was set up just a few weeks ago and already has over 2000 calls.
Ukraine affirms Japan's claim to the Northern Territories (https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/6922022-44369) (aka the Kuril Islands*)
Fun fact: about 60% of the population of the Northern Territories are of Ukrainian ethnicity.
*Well, technically, Japan claims only the southern 4 islands, the Russian terminology refers to all the islands shown in the following image:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/Demis-kurils-russian_names.png)
In your base, blowing up your planes: Ukraine blows up two strategic bombers at their airfield within Russia (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-kamikaze-drone-attacks-bomber-base-deep-in-russia)
QuoteA Ukrainian suicide drone exploded at a Russian airbase destroying two bombers, two Ukrainian intelligence sources tell The War Zone.
The attack took place at the Shaykovka Air Base in the Kaluga Oblast, about 140 miles north of the Ukrainian border and about 170 miles southwest of Moscow.
The base is home to Russian Tu-22M Backfire bombers from the 52nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment.
Quote"According to Russian TG channels, the explosion occurred when the UAV was over the runway."
But the drone attack caused no damage
Suuurrre. No damage, no casualties. Sounds legit. They also added that "it is known" (who writes these quotes, Drogo?) that the drone couldn't do any damage. There's lying and then there's megalying, which isn't even the slightest bit plausible. This is an instance of megalying.
Looks like there's been an unfortunate (for Russia) accident on Kerch bridge. Stay tuned!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1578633221041844225
https://twitter.com/i/status/1578645265606508544
"Happy Birthday to you..."
https://twitter.com/i/status/1578636142055870464
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 08, 2022, 01:16:35 AMLooks like there's been an unfortunate (for Russia) accident on Kerch bridge. Stay tuned!
Last I heard, no one is taking official credit for this, but assuming it was Ukraine, which it most likely was, would this be the first Ukraine incursion into Russia?
Quote from: SGOS on October 08, 2022, 08:27:58 AMLast I heard, no one is taking official credit for this, but assuming it was Ukraine, which it most likely was, would this be the first Ukraine incursion into Russia?
No. The Kerch bridge, which spans from Russia to Crimea and built shortly after the 2014 invasion, is not part of Russia proper.
Besides, Ukraine has attacked military targets in Belogrod several times and recently hit an airbase pretty deep in Russian territory.
(https://i.redd.it/qxxgwg6srjs91.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/j3wm4v64jjs91.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/LEVcgy4l.jpeg)
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 08, 2022, 08:42:39 AM(https://i.redd.it/qxxgwg6srjs91.jpg)
I don't hope for him to have many more.
(https://i.redd.it/wpcypvruars91.jpg)
Ukrainian forces repel 30 invader attacks (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3589132-ukrainian-forces-repel-over-30-enemy-attacks-near-avdiivka-bakhmut.html)
Tense situation near Bakhmut, but Ukraine is holding.
(https://i.redd.it/678w401zvqs91.png)
The perpetrator of the Kerch disaster has been found! Definitely not a photoshopped version of the wikipedia sample ID with some Rasputin-looking guy on top.
And the bridge didn't suffer from a perfectly-tined explosion almost certainly from a professional military team. No chance of that!
The Russian police know exactly what's going on and weren't at all caught with their pants down!
Semen?
Golden tiara from the time of Attila the Hun stolen from Melitopol museum (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-travel-museums-7431f2190d917f44f76dff39b4d5df54)
"My platoon was wiped out in a minute" - Russian POW who was captured within 12 days (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/9/7370976/)
QuoteOne of the captured soldiers, a resident of the Udmurt Republic, said that his military training lasted only two days. Meanwhile, tank crews are given no more than 10 days of training. He believes that it is impossible to prepare soldiers for war in such a short amount of time.
Quote"We saw well-armed, well-trained people. Every other person had a portable radio, all had thermal imaging devices and night vision scopes... They eliminated our entire platoon in one minute. Twenty people were killed in one minute."
Apparently, night vision is something sorely lacking among Rashist troops. A very exploitable weakness.
The claim is it's Zelensky's office in Kiev.
Kiev bombed.
https://twitter.com/Asbghostyeni6/status/1579346148099489793?t=DD1-IP5a_ojVgwmR4S8k2w&s=19
German Embassy bombed.
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1579391516988309505
Belarus's Lukashenko warns Ukraine, deploys troops with Russia
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-russia-form-joint-military-group-lukashenko-says-2022-10-10/
Yeah, a YouTuber I was watching from Kyiv had to stop his video to go to the basement because of the air raid siren. :(
In response to an explosion at a bridge used to ferry tanks/artillery to the battlefield to shoot at civilians, Dictactor Putin gave the order to intentionally bomb civilians, and timed it to cause maximum civilian casualties.
Russia is a terrorist state. The only difference between Al Queda and Russia is that Russia has a UN seat.
Before, I'd be willing to remove sanctions after the war. Now, I don't think it'd be wise to remove sanctions at all because any amount of money that goes to Russia is inevitably used to fund international terrorism.
(https://i.imgur.com/PSbsZHh.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/xyXHR8h.jpg)
Rashist hurt itself in its confusion!
This endless stream of excuse-making for dictatorship and genocidal expansionism isn't going to die with Putin. These people genuinely want the whole world to become like North Korea.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 11, 2022, 07:07:42 AM[img]......
This endless stream of excuse-making for dictatorship and genocidal expansionism isn't going to die with Putin. These people genuinely want the whole world to become like North Korea.
Yep, and millions of these "neo-conservative" stooges will happily go down that trail to own the libs as they watch Cucker Tarlson.
Peace in our time: Billionaire spoke to Dictator Putin before promoting appeasement scheme on Twitter (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/elon-musk-putin-tweet-ukraine-b2200445.html) (Putin-led disinfo campaign)
This guy has a boss and has his boss's agenda.
"Hey, you know those people online that LITERALLY everyone hates? You know, the one's who constantly troll and stir shit just to be an obnoxious little dweeb?
Lol yeah, that's what I want to be when I grow up... but like, in the reallll worrrld mannnn."
Problem is we now have an entire culture that unironically actually likes people behaving like the most childish aspects of the internet in the real world.
I've got an idea. Let's tell Elon we are going to take 10% of all his property and holdings and give them to poor Russians.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on October 11, 2022, 02:08:55 PMI've got an idea. Let's tell Elon we are going to take 10% of all his property and holdings and give them to poor Russians.
Just give it directly to Putin.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on October 11, 2022, 02:08:55 PMI've got an idea. Let's tell Elon we are going to take 10% of all his property and holdings and give them to poor Russians.
Unironically actually a good strategy.
Yeah, pretty much. It's tough getting through that oligarchy.
The same billionaire who provided Ukraine with Starlink (saving lives) now denies its use (endangering lives) (https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-blocks-starlink-in-crimea-amid-nuclear-fears-report-2022-10)
Definitely, lessons are being learned about true loyalties and true character. This crisis is very revealing in who is trustworthy and who is not.
Ukraine receives air defense systems from Germany (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-has-received-iris-t-air-defence-system-germany-spiegel-2022-10-11/)
These were intially supposed to be delivered by the end of the year, but the timetable has been sped up considerably.
Ukraine is getting 4 more HIMARS very soon as well (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3591386-four-more-himars-delivered-to-ukraine.html). They're very proficient with them and they will help speed up to the end of this war.
Ukrainian forces destroy a command post and ammo dump in the south (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/12/7371550/)
Ukraine attacks a Russian military base and destroys six s-300 transport/launch vehicles (https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1580167837477326848?s=20&t=eOU8laodacPF6IbeFAE0JA)
Apparently these are s-300 systems sans missiles, so not quite as good as bagging the complete system, but still good for reducing Russia's ability to fire missiles at civilians, since missiles without a launcher are no threat as are launchers without missiles.
S-300 missile launchers were designed for air defense, but Russia has frequently jury-rigged them to fire at ground targets. And since they're not remotely designed for that sort of thing, they're not particularly accurate, so Russia mainly uses them to attack civilian population centers (i.e. war crimes)
Desperation level: t-62. Russia plans to modernize its antique t-62 tanks to get them to the front lines in no time (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-to-modernize-800-vintage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report) (about 3 years LOL)
QuoteIf the situation is as it is reported to be, the decision to reactivate hundreds of these remarkably old Cold War-era tanks offers fresh evidence that western sanctions and other factors are hobbling Russia's arms industry. It also provides more evidence as to the poor state of Russia's more advanced armor, with many hundreds of tanks destroyed, damaged, or captured and others sidelined due to being worn out or without high-tech replacement parts after nearly nine months of continuous combat.
QuoteGurulyov reportedly said that the T-62s in question would be modernized with new thermal and night vision optics and additional armor and other defensive features, particularly to help protect against anti-tank guided missiles like the U.S.-made Javelin.
QuoteGurulyov reportedly said during his trip to the 103 Armored Repair Plant that the T-62 has acquitted itself well in Ukraine, despite evidence to the contrary.
Definitely a case of too little, too late. I guess they were really all in on that Kiev-in-three-days thing and took a while to finally dawn on them that they don't have nearly enough tanks.
Also, they have a really strange fixation on solving problems by throwing more men/tanks/missiles at it. Whether they get 50 or 500 or 5000 more tanks, that's not going to fix their horrible logistics, training, morale, and C&C. And it's not going to stop the world's displeasure at having rapists and murderers goosestep across Europe again. And it's certainly not going to unexplode Russian bases, ships, and bridges.
Russia could've been a powerful partner in Europe. Now it's a rusting pariah state, decaying under a tyrannical dictator.
Russian armored vehicle runs right into the world's most obvious minefield (https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1580289785050337280?t=aX-Xti4i46-A80kechBitw&s=34)
Miraculously, no one died afaik. Some mild-to-moderate tinnitus, perhaps. It really is astonishing how poorly trained these guys are. You could paint a boulder to look like a tunnel and these guys would drive right into it.
Russia really doesn't like Japan having access to HIMARS (https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-protests-over-japans-firing-164431377.html)
(https://i.redd.it/lefx079otit91.jpg)
6 helicopters. Ouch!
33 drones as well, and that's only going to accelerate as more air defense is delivered.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 13, 2022, 12:25:34 AMRussian armored vehicle runs right into the world's most obvious minefield (https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1580289785050337280?t=aX-Xti4i46-A80kechBitw&s=34)
Miraculously, no one died afaik. Some mild-to-moderate tinnitus, perhaps. It really is astonishing how poorly trained these guys are. You could paint a boulder to look like a tunnel and these guys would drive right into it.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580542417081884673 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1580542417081884673)
Quote from: Cassia on October 13, 2022, 09:41:53 AMhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1580542417081884673 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1580542417081884673)
Twitter is forcing me to login to view but someone posted a video in the comments of Private Conscriptovich on parade, getting (I'm assuming accidentally) run over by a Russian apc. Is that right?
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 13, 2022, 01:40:46 PMTwitter is forcing me to login to view but someone posted a video in the comments of Private Conscriptovich on parade, getting (I'm assuming accidentally) run over by a Russian apc. Is that right?
Fucked his right leg up pretty good, it looks like.
Blessing in disguise.
Edit - No such luck, saw a different angle - man ain't gonna have a working digestive tract after that I'm afraid. Helmet withstood an APC tire though, for Russian engineering...
He got back up and got back in formation afterwards, so maybe it wasn't as bad as it looked?
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 13, 2022, 01:40:46 PMTwitter is forcing me to login to view but someone posted a video in the comments of Private Conscriptovich on parade, getting (I'm assuming accidentally) run over by a Russian apc. Is that right?
Yeah....Barney Fife would be a better soldier !
Of the new Russian recruits there will be a small percentage who are smart natural soldiers and will survive and learn. My father was drafted for Korea and he said the 6-week boot camp was minimal prep and most of his compatriots were dead within 2 months. They would fire bazooka rockets that leave smoke tails and stay put, for example. He would run away before the responding mortars came in.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 13, 2022, 03:45:57 PMHe got back up and got back in formation afterwards, so maybe it wasn't as bad as it looked?
Adrenaline is a hell of a drug, to be fair.
(https://i.imgur.com/fnyKXRe.jpeg)
Those reactive armor plates would probably kill everyone on board if activated. There's a reason why they're mounted on tanks and not vans.
A friend I grew up with in high school relayed this story from WWII.
His father was in an artillery unit, and he noticed the shelling getting closer and closer. We can't move the artillery, so we have to move. They have us pegged. He left for protection while others refused to leave and his artillery unit was obliterated.
The guy was superintendent of our school. He made it. Weird things that jog your memory.
The UN voted on a motion to condemn Russia's annexation of Ukrainian land (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-63237669). Russia pushed for it to be a secret vote, apparently banking on the cryptofascist vote. That was rejected, so it was a public vote.
5 countries supported the illegal land-grab scheme. Russia (duh), Syria (Russian puppet state), Belarus (Russian puppet state), North Korea (ideologically similar to Russia, fellow pariah state), and Nicaragua (which previously condemned the invasion, but apparently not the resulting conquest of land)
The sad truth is that Nicaragua is a backsliding democracy which has gotten cozy with Russia in recent years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaragua%E2%80%93Russia_relations), rubberstamping Russia's conquest of Crimea before the bodies were cold and allegedly (consider the source) "requesting" Russian troops (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2022/06/russian-state-tv-calls-on-army-to-take-up-offer-to-set-up-forces-in-nicaragua.html). Ask Georgia and Moldova how that goes.
There's not really much teeth to the UN resolution (a 15-year-old with a quadcopter spotting a Russian convoy has more influence on Ukraine's future, imho) but it does serve as a barometer of global opinion on Ukraine. 143 stand with Ukraine, 35 stand for nothing, and 5 stand with Russia.
Quote from: ferdmonger on October 13, 2022, 08:56:37 PMA friend I grew up with in high school relayed this story from WWII.
His father was in an artillery unit, and he noticed the shelling getting closer and closer. We can't move the artillery, so we have to move. They have us pegged. He left for protection while others refused to leave and his artillery unit was obliterated.
The guy was superintendent of our school. He made it. Weird things that jog your memory.
If your enemy determines what direction you are from them but not the range, I imagine they would just increase range with each round. I have no idea what they actually did before drone spotters, but I would construct a grid.
Ukrainian forces laid an ambush and wiped out 190 invaders. Big numbers for a single ambush.
Ukrainian forces found a bunch of ammo the Russians left behind at an abandoned school. Quite a haul.
There was also the first ever afaik drone VS drone combat in a war. The Ukrainian drone crashed into the Russian one and sent it tumbling to the ground. Won't be long now till they're firing purple plasma bolts at each other.
Quote from: Cassia on October 13, 2022, 09:38:11 PMIf your enemy determines what direction you are from them but not the range, I imagine they would just increase range with each round. I have no idea what they actually did before drone spotters, but I would construct a grid.
A forward spotter. He knew it was coming. The new troops didn't.
(https://i.redd.it/8guypxs2vpt91.png)
Another 500+ day
(https://i.imgur.com/tmZNMcU_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
Elon being a baby again (and that's the charitable option)
When average Joes act stupid, they suffer.
When millionaires act stupid, people suffer.
When billionaires act stupid, the world suffers.
There it is; no imp ever behaves morally without it being solely for profit.
Running low: Russia uses up 2/3 of high-precision missiles, down to just 609 (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1580903819587616768)
Not sure if that includes the four that were recently fired with all of them being shot down.
Coincidentally, Putin announced a temporary end (phrasing that means nothing on closer inspection) to the missile barrages, like the recent one that cost Russia about $700 million dollars to knock out Ukrainian power for roughly one day.
This announcement could also be a play to make air/missile defense deliveries to Ukraine seem not as urgently needed as they truly are. Never trust a dictator.
Now I see why Putin suspended (kinda) the missile attacks, apparently some missiles launched from Belgorod struck Belgorod (https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1682652/russia-ukraine-war-belgorod-missile-building-battlefield-kremlin-military-equipment-vn). I can't even think of a punchline for that one, that is itself the punchline.
Ukrainians analyze captured Iranian drone, get much better at shooting them down (https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1580929831792803840)
Ex scientia dominium
Ukraine destroys a significant among of Russian weaponry in Luhansk (https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-14-22#h_5a71c40f74988757ca5bd4c8574d5bf0)
(https://i.redd.it/1v1hv28tswt91.jpg)
Heavy fighting along the Kherson front. Stay tuned.
Ukraine asked for a media blackout on the Kherson front. So things are happening, but we'll have to wait a while to hear about them.
Belgorod airfield likely hit with HARM missile (https://en.defence-ua.com/events/belgorod_airfield_in_russia_hit_by_ukraines_missile_likely_harm_video-4556.html)
German court OKs putting wrecked Russian tank in front of Russian embassy in Berlin (https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-court-allows-placing-wrecked-russian-tank-outside-embassy/a-63408590)
"So I take the tank, fly it right up to the general's palace, drop it at his feet I'm like, BOOM! You looking for this?"
Today's big news is that Iran is planning on sending ballistic missiles to Russia (https://www.yahoo.com/video/iran-send-ballistic-missiles-russia-155200066.html), and not in the good way.
Very bad news. First, it restocks Russia's dwindling ballistic missile stocks. Second, it will almost certainly be used to kill civilians and might be used to slow down Ukrainian advances if they run out of playgrounds to bomb. This will prolong the war and get much more people killed. Unless.
Unless Ukrainians get much better anti-missile tech donated to them by Allied countries. Putin's nuclear talk is just that, talk to intimidate and discourage, Putin's standard way of getting what he wants. Axis countries do whatever they want, Allied countries worry that doing too much will anger Putin. Well, let him be angry. Help people in need and frustrate a dictator's mad ambitions. It's the right moral call and it's the right practical call.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 16, 2022, 09:40:07 PMToday's big news is that Iran is planning on sending ballistic missiles to Russia (https://www.yahoo.com/video/iran-send-ballistic-missiles-russia-155200066.html), and not in the good way.
Very bad news. First, it restocks Russia's dwindling ballistic missile stocks. Second, it will almost certainly be used to kill civilians and might be used to slow down Ukrainian advances if they run out of playgrounds to bomb. This will prolong the war and get much more people killed. Unless.
Unless Ukrainians get much better anti-missile tech donated to them by Allied countries. Putin's nuclear talk is just that, talk to intimidate and discourage, Putin's standard way of getting what he wants. Axis countries do whatever they want, Allied countries worry that doing too much will anger Putin. Well, let him be angry. Help people in need and frustrate a dictator's mad ambitions. It's the right moral call and it's the right practical call.
I can't recall a power-hungry dictator ever just stopping being an evil villain on their own accord. A beautiful change of heart...an enlightening. It may have happened...it could happen. Right? LOL.
(https://i.imgur.com/fGpPeiW.png)
If your commander wants you to die for him, then it is prudent to promote yourself.
Quote from: Cassia on October 16, 2022, 11:06:00 PMI can't recall a power-hungry dictator ever just stopping being an evil villain on their own accord. A beautiful change of heart...an enlightening. It may have happened...it could happen. Right? LOL.
We need three, maybe four christmas ghosts.
Just need the right people and some flying lead pellets to have their trajectories intersect at the same time.
Abbas sides with Putin (https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2022-10-16/ty-article/.premium/u-s-deeply-disappointed-by-palestinian-presidents-praise-of-putin-russia/00000183-ddef-ddf0-adb7-ffef62060000)
You'd think if anyone could sympathize with Ukraine, it'd be the Palestinians. Unfortunately, they'd rather kiss a dictator's ass in the hopes of getting the tiniest slice of his largess than take a moral stand. Sad.
Russia warns Israel not to step up Ukrainian aid (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-10-17/ty-article/israel-arming-ukraine-would-destroy-relations-with-russia-ex-president-medvedev-warns/00000183-e55e-dacc-a7a3-f57eb78c0000)
Russia says not to provide military aid to Ukraine or it'll destroy relations between Russia and Israel (threats from Russia, must be a day that ends in a y)
Russia bombed a holocaust memorial in Ukraine and falsely claimed that Hitler was jewish, so I'm pretty sure they don't care at all about Jewish sensibilities.
QuoteShai twitted that "Iran is supplying ballistic missile to Russia. The doubts about where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict are over. There is no room to be self-righteous anymore. The time has come that we provide Ukraine with military aid as the U.S. and NATO do."
Israel is currently providing basic info on the Iranian drones and satellite imagery of Russian positions. That's good, but that's largely redundant, and Israel could certainly do more. Russian fascists are doing to civilians in Ukraine everything that the nazis did to Jewish communities. It's happening again. Israel has an opportunity to strike a major blow against the current nazis and save innocent lives by donating its Iron Dome technology to Ukraine.
As a gesture of goodwill, a Russian pilot flew his plane into an apartment complex in Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/aircraft-crashes-into-residential-building-russian-city-yeysk-agencies-2022-10-17/)
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.
(https://i.redd.it/l2tjnc6xhlu91.jpg)
Russia buys computer chips from China with up to 40% failure rates (https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/)
Exxon finally leaves Russia (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/exxon-exits-russia-after-putin-expropriates-sakhalin-1-project/)
Back in March, Exxon announced no new investments in Russia, but apparently they were holding on to the Sakhalin 1 project, which Putin just handed over to someone else. That's what happens when you do business with a dictator.
Definitely a computer game. I can tell because of the pixels and from seeing quite a few computer games in my day. Probably Arma 3. One video like that fooled a real life general (https://futurism.com/the-byte/retired-general-video-game-footage).
(https://i.imgur.com/JHuuLYg.png)
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 18, 2022, 06:47:23 PMDefinitely a computer game. I can tell because of the pixels and from seeing quite a few computer games in my day. Probably Arma 3. One video like that fooled a real life general (https://futurism.com/the-byte/retired-general-video-game-footage).
That's a disappointment.
It happens. There's a lot of stuff like that. Hell, I think I shared some war footage that was actually from 2014, which is kinda embarrassing. I try to vet what I post, but some things slip through the cracks.
Belarus says it's unable to pay off its debt due to sanctions (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-says-it-is-unable-pay-off-debt-due-sanctions-2022-10-19/)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuOAlQHWQAIIHt8?format=png&name=small)
Bullets are cheap...
Questions that answer themselves: Ransacking Russians leave note on despoiled Ukrainian home, "You already live so well, why do you need to be in Europe?" (https://nitter.it/JayinKyiv/status/1583057822538903552)
To keep out marauders and rapists, obviously. And by "Europe" I believe they're referring to the EU.
The downside to this evacuation from Kherson is that they'll be able to reinforce other fronts, which might get dicey, and it looks like they're trying to mass kidnap Ukrainians to Russia, which is a textbook definition of genocide.
Shift to renewables amid war saves EU €11bn (https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/10/18/ukraine-war-pivot-to-wind-and-solar-power-saved-the-eu-11bn-new-research-shows)
It's almost as if producing your own energy saves the Earth by cutting out both the oil lobby and Dictators and Warlords. Cause neither one uses that wealth/power for good. Decentralizing energy production not only makes practical sense, but moral sense too.
10 Iranian drone instructors blown up in Ukraine (https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-720252)
(https://i.imgflip.com/4xjosi.png)
(https://i.redd.it/i0pou8ect5v91.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/axl1ymrjq5v91.png)
Fun fact: if nuclear blackmail works, it will never stop being used.
The recent Ukrainian strike on the Antonovsky bridge killed some propagandists (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1583398137137287169)
Oh no! Anyway...
edit - apparently these weren't amateur propagandists, but people with close ties to GRU (https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1583467206653841416?s=46&t=d_bBEHG0hWA7RbEagQjm8g) (Russian Intelligence). Public "support" for Putin's policies, especially in Ukraine, is only done with manufactured consent, so when bigger fish die off, it helps eliminate the problem.
Oct 21st ISW assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-21)
QuoteThe Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack.
QuoteThe Russian withdrawal from western Kherson requires that a Russian detachment left in contact hold the line against Ukrainian attack, covering other Russian forces as they withdraw. Such a detachment must be well-trained, professional, and prepared to die for its compatriots to effectively perform that duty.
Everyone like that already died early in the war.
QuoteThe deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, assessed on October 20 that Russian military leadership may withdraw "the most combat-capable units" from the west bank part of the region to the east bank of the Dnipro river and leave mobilized soldiers in contact to cover the withdrawal.
...
If Hromov's assessment is correct, then Russian forces would be setting conditions for a Russian withdrawal to become a rout. Russia's poorly trained, newly mobilized reservists are very unlikely to stand and resist a Ukrainian counterattack if Ukrainian forces chose to attack them and chase the withdrawing forces. The collapse of a mobilized reservist detachment left in contact would likely lead to a Ukrainian rout of Russian forces on the same scale as Ukraine's rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv.
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/002/438/713/013.png)
If they surrender, doesn't that just give Putin more of a reason to blow up the dam and flood the area?
"Oh no, the ethnic minorities I forced to go sacrifice themselves in a meat grinder (lol, didn't even train them or give them gear either, I'm so naughty) have turned to the enemy - and I have a massive tool at my disposal to destroy not just them but a large chunk of Ukrainians at the same time. We can get water to Crimea later, this will just make the local people even easier to kill off and replace. And if the nuclear plant cant get the water it needs to cool itself... oh well, we already shell that same facility anyways."
Putin flooding the region is always a risk but it's pointless to worry about what Putin may or may not do, much less let it influence operations.
Ukraine must liberate itself and the only way to do that is to advance and push the invaders out.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 22, 2022, 06:09:31 PMPutin flooding the region is always a risk but it's pointless to worry about what Putin may or may not do, much less let it influence operations.
Ukraine must liberate itself and the only way to do that is to advance and push the invaders out.
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." - Sun Tzu
It seems more and more that the intelligence community thinks this is a serious threat, so to send troops in there for a political victory at the expense of a particularly brutal military and moral defeat seems like a massive, unnecessary risk - the type Putin would make, not the West. To not worry about what he would do is both strategically unsound and, given his failures, a real missed opportunity to learn from his mistakes.
Let them starve over winter, maintain enough troops to lay siege to the city until the last troop flees and move the focus eastward; they are already in the process of evacuation, give them a "good-will" gesture in return and let them do so in peace - don't turn a Ukrainian victory into a crushing defeat.
There's an ever so slight difference between being totally ignorant about the enemy and becoming so engrossed in their potential behavior that you're vulnerable to coercion or decision paralysis.
And I very much doubt Sun Tzu would say to not press one's advantage in warfare, especially when a vulnerability can be exploited. Elon Musk might say that, though.
As much as it'd love to believe that Russian forces are so poorly supplied that they'll literally starve if left alone and leave their torture rooms in peace, I very much doubt this rosy conclusion stems from an intelligence assessment or any combination thereof.
Nor does it seem likely that Zelensky, formulating these counteroffensives with the input of the Ukrainian brass as well as expert Allied advisors, intends to send troops into Kherson for a "political victory at the expense of a particularly brutal military and moral defeat" (lol wat)
Such a scenario might have happened months ago as Zelensky was first announcing his intent to counterattack, though obviously, he did not push hard against the rapidly reinforcing Russian units along Kherson front, but instead focused on destroying logistics there to weaken it over time, while pressing his advantage and exploiting vulnerabilities in the Kharkiv region, a strategy that seems to work pretty well.
The ultimate path out of this is very unclear. A complete military defeat of Russia would ruin Putin, so he cannot let that happen at almost any cost. Tactical nukes are gonna look really attractive to him if the mobilization (and drone attacks) fail to get results.
Russians seem way too brain washed and apathetic to toss Putin out. They would need the military to help. If Ukraine starts pushing Russian troops back in several regions, does anyone see Putin coming in to talk peace as a defeated dictator? Or is it more likely he will resort to tactical nukes and chemical warfare?
The other possibility occurs if Ukraine's offensive push is stopped and that would be a prolonged stalemate with both sides digging in deep.
Yeah, things could get dicey. Lots of things could go bad. Lots of things could always go bad at any time. But Russian lines have been pushed back and again and again, and Russia makes threats again and again and has brutalized civilians again and again. That's all we know for a fact. That and liberated areas suffer much less from Russian aggression.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 23, 2022, 08:29:28 AMAnd I very much doubt Sun Tzu would say to not press one's advantage in warfare, especially when a vulnerability can be exploited. Elon Musk might say that, though.
Especially if he was on the other side of that advantage.
(https://i.redd.it/f9udkwkpdiv91.jpg)
After a bit of a lull, back up to 400+ kia/day, and pretty standard vehicle/drone/helicopter destruction
Russia obstructs Ukrainian grain deliveries to impoverished countries (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/23/7373132/)
Russia builds "Seigfried line" in Luhansk border and curiously, along Russian border (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/wagners_line_is_created_by_the_russians_in_belgorod_oblast_can_these_white_pyramids_become_a_potent_defense_line-4619.html)
I see they're taking notes from the finest tacticians in the world...during WWII...and fighting for the Axis. Don't spoil the ending for them, I want it to be a surprise.
Israel launched airstrike on Iranian drone factory in Syria (https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2022-10-23/ty-article/.premium/israeli-strike-targeted-iranian-drone-assembly-site-near-damascus-syrian-monitor-says/00000184-0530-d736-abc7-1fb0384f0000)
I don't know if they're motivated by helping Ukraine or punishing Iran/Hezbollah, but I'll take it.
Russian fighter jet crashes into a house in Siberia (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russian-military-plane-crashes-into-residential-building-irkutsk-regional-2022-10-23/)
Both pilots may have been dead before impact (https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1584140584616284160), possibly from hypoxia.
I LMAO at people who try reading what's in Putin's mind.
Russia's bringing more of its D-1 howitzers to the frontlines:
One day later, Ukraine restores electricity (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/23/7373163/)
Dictator Putin lapdog Shoygu made some calls to try to justify unprovoked Russian aggression and to threaten Allied countries into capitulation. It didn't go so well.
(https://i.redd.it/lvzm22mz1qv91.jpg)
Russian forces were pushed back around Bakhmut, reversing months of very, very slow Russian advances. It's still a tense situation, but it's no longer on the verge of being overrun.
Russia and some US lawmakers talking about a ceasefire. Seems to me Putin just needs peace so as to regroup for the next offensive.
Quote from: Cassia on October 25, 2022, 08:39:25 AMRussia and some US lawmakers talking about a ceasefire. Seems to me Putin just needs peace so as to regroup for the next offensive.
Are you referring to this letter (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-progressives-press-biden-engage-direct-talks-russia-ukraine-rcna53863) from progressives to Pres Biden?
In a rare example of truth-telling, Dictator-owned Media admits that Dictator "miscalculated" and "can't win" (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-tv-ukraine-war-dirty-bomb-putin-1754428)
US considers sending HAWK anti-air technology to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-us-is-considering-transferring-the-hawk-air-defense-system-to-ukraine-reuters/)
Probably would've been a good idea to send that months ago, imo.
(https://i.redd.it/riyr9h4syxv91.jpg)
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 25, 2022, 02:14:33 PMAre you referring to this letter (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-progressives-press-biden-engage-direct-talks-russia-ukraine-rcna53863) from progressives to Pres Biden?
Ah, it was all just a little mistake, LOL. Trusting Putin would be a big mistake. It's hard to calculate the damage to Russia because everyone knows you can't negotiate with Putin.
Launch site of Russian terror attacks against civilians pinpointed to Belarusian part of the Chernobyl exclusion zone (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-us-is-considering-transferring-the-hawk-air-defense-system-to-ukraine-reuters/)
The thought of Ukraine using a dirty bomb is ludicrous on its face. Why in the world would anyone poison their own soil.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 25, 2022, 02:33:27 PMUS considers sending HAWK anti-air technology to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-us-is-considering-transferring-the-hawk-air-defense-system-to-ukraine-reuters/)
Probably would've been a good idea to send that months ago, imo.
Our Hawk stuff may be more trouble than it is worth. The US hasn't fielded any Hawk systems since 2002 when the Marines retired theirs. Anything we send them will have have been sitting in storage for at least 20 years. Some of it a lot longer than that. This stuff isn't like small arms ammo either. The solid fuel motors have expiration dates so the missiles may or may not work at all. The electronics dates to the 80's or earlier. Getting the radars to work after that long is going to be problematic at best.
Having said that, Spain was supposed to send them a handful of Hawk systems a couple of months ago. I believe Some Ukrainians are already getting some training. If they can get the Spanish systems to work they may be able to use some of what we send to supplement those systems.
Hawk actually has a proven combat record though. Iran used them to shoot down a bunch of Iraqi plans in the Iran-Iraq war. We used them with limited success in the first Gulf war. But that was in combination with other systems. A handful of Hawk units operating without support may just be a death trap for the crews. The Turks deployed a few systems to Syria in 2020. Those systems were destroyed in an air attack because there weren't enough of them to defend themselves.
Shifting narrative: Russia ditches "denazification" and goes with "desatanization" (https://news.yahoo.com/russias-security-council-claims-hundreds-144610842.html)
Apparently, the whole nazi angle was ridiculous on its face, especially with Wagner in the mix. And terrorRussia is increasingly relying on fellow Axis powers Syria and Iran, so it needs to paint Ukraine as the "Great Satan" to motivate them.
Bigger Fish: Russia walks back dirty bomb "risk" after NATO points to grave consequences (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/russia-downplays-dirty-bomb)
Remember this when they talk nukes.
(https://preview.redd.it/a1zff4dcx4w91.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=ebfb867000beb3e181de77eb834f81d9f5570b95)
In Donbas, 12 fuel tanks near a railway station are on fire (https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1585366710424866817) and man, is it bright. It's like hell on Earth over there. Hope they didn't need that for anything.
In other good news, a Kadyrovite (pro-Putin chechens infamous for larping as soldiers, shooting at nothing, and posting it on tiktok) base was hit in Kherson region, killing at least 40 and wounding at least 200 (https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/26/more-than-40-chechen-fighters-killed-in-ukrainian-offensive-near-kherson)
There's a video going around of them covered in ash and some bleeding very noticeably from the head and/or nose without any sort of medical attention or concern "celebrating" their apparent survival. Tell that to the staph infection.
ISW assessment Oct 26 (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-26)
QuoteA Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW's longstanding assessments about the poor condition of Russian forces. ISW has long assessed that the conventional Russian military in Ukraine is severely degraded and has largely lost offensive capabilities since the summer of 2022, that Russian strategic commanders have been micromanaging operational commanders' decisions on tactical matters, and that Russian morale is very low. Reuters' investigation found that Russian units near Balakliya were severely understrength, with a combat battalion at 19.6-percent strength and a reserve unit at 23-percent strength.[1] The investigation found that poor morale, bad logistics, and overbearing commanders contributed to Russian forces' poor performance
QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin's rhetoric indicates that he is not interested in negotiating seriously with Ukraine and retains maximalist objectives for the war. Putin stated that Ukraine has "lost sovereignty" in a meeting with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) security officials on October 26.[5] Putin stated that the United States is using Ukraine as a "battering ram" against Russia, the Russian-Belarusian Union State, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the CIS. Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin amplified this narrative, stating that "Ukraine has lost the ability to exist as a state," "Ukraine is occupied by NATO," and "[Ukraine] has become a colony of the US" on October 26.[6] This language is incompatible with negotiations on an equal basis for a ceasefire, let alone a resolution to the conflict that Russia began. It instead strongly suggests that the Kremlin still seeks a military victory in Ukraine and regime change in Kyiv that would affect the permanent reorientation of Ukraine away from the West and into Russia's control.
QuoteKherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo stated on October 26 that it would be "practically impossible" to completely destroy the dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant (HPP) and that even the destruction of the dam locks at the HPP would only cause the water level of the Dnipro River to rise less than 2 meters.[7] Saldo's statement directly contradicts his own prior statements and the warnings made by Commander of Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergey Surovikin on October 18 that Ukraine is planning to strike the Kakhovka HPP and cause flood damage along the Dnipro River. [8] Saldo's apparent retraction of his own warnings may suggest that he seeks to quell anxiety accompanying the mass movement of civilians and Russian military and occupation elements across the Dnipro in order to preserve his own ability to rule.
Infantryman's Uplifting Primer:
The otherwise bizarre actions and attitudes make more sense when realizing that they've essentially been cut off from the world and been fed lies by a dictator almost their entire lives. The "saving the Ukrainian population from genocide" lie has aged particularly poorly, with numerous examples of exactly that from the Russian side.
Though you'd think at least a few of them would figure out that Ukraine being destitute doesn't jive with them generally living much better than Russians.
Also, the idea that the West has been prepping Ukraine for a war with Russia is laughable. If that was the case, Ukraine would have HIMARS and Iron Dome and Leopard tanks in 2014 and Germany wouldn't have bothered constructing Nordstream 1 and 2. The sad fact is that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 blindsided the West and even afterwards, a lot of western leaders fooled themselves into thinking that Putin would stop at Crimea.
And if the West had laid a trap for Putin in Ukraine, wouldn't Putin have been a colossal idiot to step right into it, harming Russia immensely? Come to think of it, that sort of gross incompetence is borderline traitorous...
Edit - They are right about one thing: Westerners do indeed watch Russian troop movements online, geolocate them, and send artillery their way. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
There's an app for that: vigilant citizens spot incoming Caliber missile and use app to alert air defense (https://en.socportal.info/en/news/s-pomoshchiu-prilozheniya-eppo-vpervye-sbili-rossiiskuiu-raketu/), resulting in what I believe is the world's first successful joint civilian-military missile defense.
If you'd have told me that this would be a thing 20 years ago, I'd call you crazy.
And this is how I know Ukraine will win: its people are ingenuous and resourceful. This gives it a huge advantage over Russia, which has a notably below-average ability to adapt.
Ukrainian forces consistently out-think Russian forces, and as soon as military aid mostly closed the gap, were able to outgun them as well. Ingenuity and technology and the skill to use it will always triumph over brute strength and cruelty.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 27, 2022, 10:55:10 AMInfantryman's Uplifting Primer:
The otherwise bizarre actions and attitudes make more sense when realizing that they've essentially been cut off from the world and been fed lies by a dictator almost their entire lives. The "saving the Ukrainian population from genocide" lie has aged particularly poorly, with numerous examples of exactly that from the Russian side.
Though you'd think at least a few of them would figure out that Ukraine being destitute doesn't jive with them generally living much better than Russians.
Also, the idea that the West has been prepping Ukraine for a war with Russia is laughable. If that was the case, Ukraine would have HIMARS and Iron Dome and Leopard tanks in 2014 and Germany wouldn't have bothered constructing Nordstream 1 and 2. The sad fact is that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 blindsided the West and even afterwards, a lot of western leaders fooled themselves into thinking that Putin would stop at Crimea.
And if the West had laid a trap for Putin in Ukraine, wouldn't Putin have been a colossal idiot to step right into it, harming Russia immensely? Come to think of it, that sort of gross incompetence is borderline traitorous...
Edit - They are right about one thing: Westerners do indeed watch Russian troop movements online, geolocate them, and send artillery their way. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
So Russia's goal is to...
[Checks notes]
Denazify the non-country known as Ukraine, which is under the control of Israel. Oh yes. If it's one thing Israel is known for, it's Nazis. Nazi Jews everywhere.
Quote from: Blackleaf on October 27, 2022, 06:30:52 PMSo Russia's goal is to...
[Checks notes]
Denazify the non-country known as Ukraine, which is under the control of Israel. Oh yes. If it's one thing Israel is known for, it's Nazis. Nazi Jews everywhere.
About that, Russia has recently gone death con 3. Russia singled out the Chabad sect as particularly evil (https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-720658) (coincidentally, the dominant jewish community in both Russia and Ukraine). Jewish leaders (correctly, imo) interpreted this as a portent of looming discrimination/violence and the former chief Rabbi of Moscow asks jews to leave Russia for their own safety (https://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-moscow-chief-rabbi-calls-on-russia-jews-to-flee-after-top-official-attacks-chabad/). He himself fled Russia earlier this year.
On the other side of the coin, Zelensky is seeing positive trend in his talks with Israel (https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-hails-positive-trend-in-israel-ties-after-intel-sharing-on-iranian-drones/), which has offered some assistance to Ukraine, but much less than Ukraine needs.
Russia sets up second battleline, mainly to shoot deserters (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-now-has-a-second-frontline-set-up-just-to-kill-its-deserters-intel)
They're certainly incentivizing surrender.
Probably related: some Russian units operating at 6% strength (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/28/ukraine-russia-war-putin-news-latest-speech-kyiv-blackouts/)
Weeks ago, that figure was around 25%. Months ago, it was more like 50%. Ukrainian attrition has been enormous, influcting more KIA to the Russians than the US suffered during the entire Vietnam war, condensed into less than a year.
And yet, if Russian forces take 15 steps towards Bakhmut while taking enormous casualties in the process, the media reports that "Russian forces continue to advance" and bite their nails about Kyiv's chances. Very misleading and fear-based reporting, which has led to some inaccurate public perceptions.
Ukrainian artillery unit destroys 200 targets in 45 days (https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/the_m777_unit_destroyed_more_than_200_targets_in_15_months_among_the_destroyed_weapons_was_even_the_s_400_air_defense_system-4674.html)
Quotehis unit has destroyed more than 200 targets in the last 1.5 months and these are the ones that have been confirmed.
Among the M777's targets are self-propelled artillery batteries, ammunition warehouses, russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and even two S-400 air-defense missile systems: "The last two were destroyed as accurately as possible: both shots hit the target."
That's about 4.5 targets per day. And living to tell the tale afterwards.
I can't even begin to calculate the dollar value of the lost war materiel and vehicles on one side and the ammo on the other. A single s-400 system costs around $300 million all by itself, so that Ukrainian unit easily knocked out over a billion dollars of Russian equipment in less than two months.
Russian Apathy
aligns with various reponses here:
Ukrainian forces destroy T-90M tank in Kherson region (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-neutralized-the-russian-t-90m-proryv-tank/)
Those are Putin's best tanks, so every loss is significant.
But this one is interesting in that it was one-shotted (man, the Ukrainians are getting really good at destroying tanks) and under normal circumstances, the ammo inside would have exploded, but it didn't have ammo inside. This likely indicates severe ammo shortages (you don't under-ammo your best tank if you can help it)
Russia preparing to "create political unrest" in Moldova with the aim to "reorient Moldova towards Moscow" (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-is-preparing-a-coup-d-etat-in-moldova-the-washington-post/)
After Ukraine regains its territory, it would a trivial matter to respond to an official Moldovan request for assistance. Even just the positioning of Ukrainian artillery nearby might coax the Russians to leave. A warning shot or two would further increase this likelihood.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 29, 2022, 08:07:25 AMUkrainian forces destroy T-90M tank in Kherson region (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-neutralized-the-russian-t-90m-proryv-tank/)
Those are Putin's best tanks, so every loss is significant.
But this one is interesting in that it was one-shotted (man, the Ukrainians are getting really good at destroying tanks) and under normal circumstances, the ammo inside would have exploded, but it didn't have ammo inside. This likely indicates severe ammo shortages (you don't under-ammo your best tank if you can help it)
Even though the Russian tanks have big-time flaws, if one deployed the latest NATO tanks in that thoughtless manner they would be destroyed as well.
Quote from: Cassia on October 29, 2022, 09:48:02 AMEven though the Russian tanks have big-time flaws, if one deployed the latest NATO tanks in that thoughtless manner they would be destroyed as well.
Yeah, infantry, close air support, surveillance, logistics support, etc. The Russians hop in and go blasting like they're playing GTA or something. Their thoughtlessness has made a lot of Ukrainian victories possible.
Speaking of Ukrainian victories...the Black Sea fleet was extremely recently under attack by a bunch of Ukrainian drones.
We don't know much at present and some Wormtongue on the Russian side is spewing lies I'm not interested in. Half the article is filled with them. Shameful what passes for journalism these days.
What we do know for sure is the Admiral Makarov is smoking (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1586348922229907458?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet). Whether or not it'll succumb to "rough seas" is still to be determined.
Wikipedia has it as heavily damaged (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_frigate_Admiral_Makarov). Can't wait to see "is" become "was" all over that page.
According to Euromaidan (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/10/29/at-least-three-russian-ships-damaged-in-blasts-in-sevastopol-sbu/?swcfpc=1), three of the cruise missile ships have been damaged, and several ships have likely sunk. Big if true, though of course these are preliminary reports awaiting official confirmation.
If the Black Sea fleet has been hit as hard as early reports say, their ability to bombard civilian targets will severely diminish and any remaining boats will be even more vulnerable (the flagship Moskva provided air defense, but it was sunk, so they've been hugging Sevastopol, relying on its air defense, which is smart but also makes their location incredibly predictable). All Ukraine has to do is to continue to advance towards Crimea and deploy anti-ship missiles closer and closer to the coast, and remaining Black Sea ships have no choice but to back off. That or hit them over and over with drones until they're too diminished to function. Either way, the writing is on the wall.
In Russia, at a military training ground, a 22-year-old truck driver runs over a group of conscripts, killing two (https://www.yahoo.com/video/contract-serviceman-runs-over-group-162500635.html)
I guess they really do think this is GTA.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 29, 2022, 02:46:53 PMIn Russia, at a military training ground, a 22-year-old truck driver runs over a group of conscripts, killing two (https://www.yahoo.com/video/contract-serviceman-runs-over-group-162500635.html)
I guess they really do think this is GTA.
They'll still keep him. The front is worse than a gulag.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ff2HWSpXkAIyoeS?format=jpg&name=900x900)
(https://i.redd.it/v35wegvonkw91.png)
At this point, they might as well say "I'm rubber, you're glue" to incoming missiles. It'd work about as well.
New explosions at Sevastopol. Don't know if it's another attack or something damaged exploding. Fingers crossed!
The first guy was right about the dangers of using SIM cards. Can't be too careful. Why, the enemy could be listening in to every call you make...
In the second one, I loved it when the mother said that she won't tell anyone. Your secret is safe, LOL.
"It was a good 24 hours": Ukrainian Armed Forces kill almost 1,000 Russian occupiers in one day (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/30/7374129/)
And that's not even including whatever happened with the ships near Sevastopol.
Ukraine's out there stacking Russian bodies like cordwood. Any Russians there who value their lives need to get out and fast.
Russian strategy: if we send enough men, eventually the ukrainians will become depressed and demoralized from continually slaughtering all these unfairly unprepared people.
Once their will is broken, we'll win for sure!
One old fool like Putler or tRump commands "jump" and millions just do what he says. And the imaginary old fool in the clouds always approves.
(https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.a69507cd9f51dc67f4ee776dece971b9?rik=ffbPZ23tKvA9fg&riu=http%3a%2f%2fi1.kym-cdn.com%2fphotos%2fimages%2ffacebook%2f001%2f118%2f853%2f501.jpg&ehk=ZzhN6Z5eTM5v0A0AoEiYYLgepGq18U04MgUgvPAz1xI%3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0)
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on October 30, 2022, 04:23:46 PMRussian strategy: if we send enough men, eventually the ukrainians will become depressed and demoralized from continually slaughtering all these unfairly unprepared people.
Once their will is broken, we'll win for sure!
When all you have is a hammer...
They've tried to sow terror as much as humanly possible and have been pretty inventive in some areas - strapping ground-based AA to ships, jury-rigging AA to use as artillery, etc.
They've also tried to artificially create both an energy crisis and famine to strong-arm the international community, as well as meddling in elections, making dire threats, and playing a hell of a game of "I'm not touching you!" via Belarus.
It's just that all the terrorism and brinksmanship in the world can't compensate for bad fundamentals - the inability to fight a modern war against a powerful opponent.
During the retreat, Russian forces left behind a machine gun built in 1910 (https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1586829089653997568)
Literally world war one equipment.
This is why I never brought nothing for show and tell.
Quote from: the_antithesis on October 30, 2022, 08:25:05 PMThis is why I never brought nothing for show and tell.
If you "never brought nothing" then you always brought something?
😉
(https://i.redd.it/mpwpimgbq4x91.jpg)
Two Russian helicopters exploded near the Latvian border (https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2022/10/31/7374264/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
They were being repaired, then exploded. No one knows why. 🇺🇦
Edit - two more helicopters were damaged from the explosion, bringing the total up to 4
Russia fired at least 50 cruise missiles at Ukraine in two hours (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/31/7374245/). 44 were shot down, one of them falling in Moldovan territory. So unfortunately, at least 6 missiles got through. There have been several explosions near electrical infrastructure in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/another-mass-attack-on-monday-morning-russias-hits-energy-infrastructure-across-ukraine)
(https://i.redd.it/0cjghibn55x91.jpg)
Quote"Russia's assertions are absurd for many reasons, including because such species, even if they could be weaponized, would pose as much a threat to the European continent and to Ukraine itself as they would to any other country."
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/28/russia-ukraine-un-ambassador
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 31, 2022, 12:41:31 AMIf you "never brought nothing" then you always brought something?
😉
A double negative makes a positive only in formal logic.
In real life, negatives stack.
I heard an analyst suggest that the real reason the Russian soldiers are stealing Ukrainian washing machines is so they can disassemble them and desolder/reuse the microchips they contain to repair their war weapons. Interesting.
Also the famous new Su-57, 5th gen fighter has been ghosting in this war. Maybe they know it isn't all that RADAR stealthy. The Indian defense industry did give up on the joint development with Russia a while ago; but I doubt that effort was without spies, LOL.
(https://www.19fortyfive.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Su-57.jpg)
Quote from: Cassia on November 01, 2022, 01:37:18 PMI heard an analyst suggest that the real reason the Russian soldiers are stealing Ukrainian washing machines is so they can disassemble them and desolder/reuse the microchips they contain to repair their war weapons.
Yes. That is very likely. Russia has also been importing a lot of consumer electronics lately, much of it from India and China, almost certainly to salvage the microchips like you said.
Edit - link to article about it (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-29/putin-stirs-european-worry-on-home-appliance-imports-stripped-for-arms)
I'm a bit skeptical about the chip thing, unless the Russians want to wash, rinse and repeat a missile launch. All that stuff is application-specific.
Quote from: Blackleaf on October 27, 2022, 06:30:52 PMSo Russia's goal is to...
[Checks notes]
Denazify the non-country known as Ukraine, which is under the control of Israel. Oh yes. If it's one thing Israel is known for, it's Nazis. Nazi Jews everywhere.
I think you'd have to find a Catholic Protestant to explain it.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on November 01, 2022, 07:46:41 PMI'm a bit skeptical about the chip thing, unless the Russians want to wash, rinse and repeat a missile launch. All that stuff is application-specific.
They're just trying for clean kills.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on November 01, 2022, 07:46:41 PMI'm a bit skeptical about the chip thing, unless the Russians want to wash, rinse and repeat a missile launch. All that stuff is application-specific.
Remember when just about everything made in the 80s-90s used an intel 8051 uC? They cost about $1 and had tons of I/O. I even used them in avionics. I'd bet late Soviet era stuff and Ukrainian washing machine shared at least some parts and heck even if they used FPGA's, they are reprogrammable...and the Russians seem desperate.
In one of the strangest things I ever encountered was when one of my designs was failing factory testing. I narrowed it down to a capacitor that didn't hold a charge. I gave samples to our specialists who took it apart and found that inside this large cap, a smaller, cheaper cap had been soldered. Like those Russian dolls. It was a counterfeit part and our parts buyers got chewed out by the boss.
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/YlLMLLqPV0U/maxresdefault.jpg)
Russia is officially back in the grain deal (https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/europe/russia-resumes-ukraine-grain-deal-intl) Erodogan somehow made that happen. Don't ask me how.
So, to recap:
1) Ukrainian drones attacked the Black Sea Fleet near Sevastopol in temporarily-occupied Crimea.
2) Russia slowed down grain shipments and said it was pulling out of the grain deal (and bombarded Ukrainian infrastructure/civilians in "retaliation" for damage to military targets during a war - they initially claimed no damage btw)
3) Ukraine and Turkey and the UN made a separate grain deal without Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-suspends-participation-deal-ukraine-grain-exports-tass-2022-10-29/)
4) Russia made a ridiculous demand that it'd rejoin the grain deal if Ukraine could guarantee the safety of its Black Sea Fleet (https://www.yahoo.com/now/ukraine-latest-putin-demands-safety-214142271.html), presumably as it actively engages in hostilities against Ukrainian civilians. It'd be like during WWII, the US asking Japan to guarantee the safety of its bombers. Words cannot express how strongly this proposal was rejected.
5) Russia declares that any shipping through the Black Sea is unacceptable (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-movement-ships-black-sea-corridor-is-unacceptable-2022-10-31/)
6) Russia rejoins the grain deal anyway, seemingly for nothing ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
QuoteThe US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield told CNN she was "delighted" the deal was being resurrected.
"[The deal] is providing needed food to the world, so clearly Russia was finally convinced that they needed to continue this, they can't stand in the way of feeding the entire world," she told CNN This Morning.
I hope that was intended to be either a diplomatic "white lie" or blatantly facetious, because Russia could very much stand in the way of feeding the entire world and their actions so far prove a moderately high commitment to just that.
Another busy day for Ukraine. 800 Russian kia. Over 73k so far.
Russia lost 16 tanks and 24 armored vehicles as well. These are brutal losses and significantly higher than the baseline.
Something serious has changed on the frontline lately.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 02, 2022, 12:32:23 PMRussia is officially back in the grain deal (https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/europe/russia-resumes-ukraine-grain-deal-intl) Erodogan somehow made that happen. Don't ask me how.
So, to recap:
1) Ukrainian drones attacked the Black Sea Fleet near Sevastopol in temporarily-occupied Crimea.
2) Russia slowed down grain shipments and said it was pulling out of the grain deal (and bombarded Ukrainian infrastructure/civilians in "retaliation" for damage to military targets during a war - they initially claimed no damage btw)
3) Ukraine and Turkey and the UN made a separate grain deal without Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-suspends-participation-deal-ukraine-grain-exports-tass-2022-10-29/)
4) Russia made a ridiculous demand that it'd rejoin the grain deal if Ukraine could guarantee the safety of its Black Sea Fleet (https://www.yahoo.com/now/ukraine-latest-putin-demands-safety-214142271.html), presumably as it actively engages in hostilities against Ukrainian civilians. It'd be like during WWII, the US asking Japan to guarantee the safety of its bombers. Words cannot express how strongly this proposal was rejected.
5) Russia declares that any shipping through the Black Sea is unacceptable (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-movement-ships-black-sea-corridor-is-unacceptable-2022-10-31/)
6) Russia rejoins the grain deal anyway, seemingly for nothing ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I hope that was intended to be either a diplomatic "white lie" or blatantly facetious, because Russia could very much stand in the way of feeding the entire world and their actions so far prove a moderately high commitment to just that.
FUCK Putin (a lot) and FUCK Russia (not as much, in a way, they are dupes). It's absolutely sickening, what they are doing.
Russia has declared it's now a "Holy War", LOL.
https://www.aol.com/news/holy-war-russia-now-depicts-090053938.html
(https://www.theosthinktank.co.uk/assets/generated/articles/page/129a2bc6a172a49453ea1787bac30608.jpg) (https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/485662155/0x0.jpg?format=jpg&width=1200)
Perhaps if the average person didn't believe there's going to be a huge afterlife reunion party with dad, grandma and their long dead pets, people would comprehend how precious their lives are and stop all this useless killing madness.
Poland to refit Ukrainian plane with guided cruise missiles capable of hitting ground targets 300km away (https://militarymonitoring.com/poland-to-help-ukraine-integrate-soviet-su-24-bombers-with-nato-scalp-missiles/)
So basically, a Ukrainian plane could potentially hit almost any target in Ukraine. In comparison, most of the artillery Ukraine is fielding can hit targets <70km away.
Quote from: Cassia on November 02, 2022, 10:16:46 PMRussia has declared it's now a "Holy War", LOL.
Yeah, it's pretty disgusting. Even moreso considering the Russian Orthodox Church got its start with the Kievan Rus and its first church was built in none other than Kyiv (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Andrew%27s_Church,_Kyiv). Russia has so far bombed over 100 church sites in Ukraine (https://thehill.com/policy/international/3512105-zelensky-113-ukrainian-churches-damaged-destroyed-by-russian-shelling/), including the Seke of All Saints (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-temple-sviatohirsk-lavra-on-fire-after-russian-attack-2022-6) which burned down as a result of Russian shelling. What they are doing right now is sacrilege.
Of course, Patriarch Krill knows a lot about sacrilege, considering that this Putin sycophant has become a billionaire under his ultimate master, owning all sorts of gaudy and excessive signifiers of wealth - mansions, yacht, even a $30,000 watch that he was photographed wearing and poorly airbrushed out (https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/06/world/europe/in-russia-a-watch-vanishes-up-orthodox-leaders-sleeve.html). So Christ-like.
Russian HQ in Melitopol explodes (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/3/7374749/)
The Russian flag is gone from the Kherson regional state administration and several checkpoints in that area have been abandoned.
ISW assessment November 2nd (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-2)
Sanctions and war and mobilization have hit the Russian economy hard (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-conflict-sanctions-set-blow-hole-russias-finances-2022-11-02/), coffers are draining, Russia is still having problems paying its soldiers, causing tensions (part of the reason why pillaging is such a high priority and why fistfights among Russian soldiers are somewhat common). Russia continues to offer cash incentives to its soldiers, rely heavily on mercenaries like Wagner, and pay Iran and North Korea for much-needed munitions and/or drones - and all of that costs money. Lots of money.
You can't make less money and pay more money for long. Sooner or later, something is going to give.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 03, 2022, 09:54:57 AMISW assessment November 2nd (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-2)
Sanctions and war and mobilization have hit the Russian economy hard (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-conflict-sanctions-set-blow-hole-russias-finances-2022-11-02/), coffers are draining, Russia is still having problems paying its soldiers, causing tensions (part of the reason why pillaging is such a high priority and why fistfights among Russian soldiers are somewhat common). Russia continues to offer cash incentives to its soldiers, rely heavily on mercenaries like Wagner, and pay Iran and North Korea for much-needed munitions and/or drones - and all of that costs money. Lots of money.
You can't make less money and pay more money for long. Sooner or later, something is going to give.
Russia loses 840 troops in past 24 hours (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/4/7374929/)
Ukraine's normal tactics of severe attrition followed by rapid advances seems to be working yet again, as Russia is in the final stages of abandoning the Kherson region.
Unfortunately, it appears that the Russians are not abandoning Kherson and the removal of the flag is a deliberate attempt to draw in Ukrainian forces into a trap (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-flag-removal-in-kherson-city-is-a-trap-kyiv-says)
Russians have dug in and tried to disguise themselves as civilians to attempt to ambush Ukrainian forces.
So the smart move for the Ukrainians is to wait, keep damaging logistics, and pick off remaining Russians instead of just rushing in. That means a considerable delay in its liberation, but it unfortunately can't be helped.
But if the opportunity presents itself, they could encircle the city, and that would speed things up considerably. Russia's best (well...remaining best) would be cut off from supplies and reinforcements and would inevitably degrade until death or capture. Such a move would rob Russia of both prized territory and skilled troops, and would be devastating for morale...
(https://i.redd.it/j0pt3i4673y91.jpg)
Can't argue with that logic.
(https://i.redd.it/ud6a7l166zx91.png)
This infographic is shocking but can't possibly be right. There's no way that roughly a third of Russian troops have been killed, wounded, or taken prisoner at some point.
Russian active duty personnel: 900k. (https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-probably-cant-strengthen-russia-military-ukraine-struggles-us-officials-2022-8) Okay, well I guess that's plausible.
September and October have been especially bloody months for the Russians, much higher body count than the lull during the summer. So that percentage could definitely change.
In a month, about 25% of conscripts Wagner recruited from prisons have died (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/4/7375041/)
At least 500 kia out of around 2000 known to be at the frontlines
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 05, 2022, 12:27:53 AM(https://i.redd.it/j0pt3i4673y91.jpg)
Can't argue with that logic.
Jesus Christ. Ukraine is being invaded by a third world country.
(https://i.redd.it/24d9zqssf4y91.jpg)
Putin made the galaxy brain decision to send instructors to war and now Russia is having a hard time training its conscripts, opting mostly to skip training altogether and forming whole battalions of FNGs with pitiful results.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are going to the UK or other countries for a couple months and coming back with PhDs in blowing up conscripts.
If only they had the planes and tanks that they need, this war would be over quickly and a lot of lives would be saved.
Speak of the devil... Battalion of conscripts wiped out along eastern front (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/5/7375139/)
Quote"We were dumped into the forest and ordered to entrench; we had only three shovels for the battalion, and there was no support at all. We entrenched as best we could, and in the morning the [Ukrainian] attack started. [Ukrainian forces used] artillery, Grad MLRS, mortars and copters; we were just shot.
When it all started, the officers immediately ran away. In between the attacks, we tried to entrench, but the copters immediately spotted us and just shot us. Out of 570 people, 29 managed to survive, 12 more were wounded, and the rest are all dead".
Jeez, 3 shovels among 570 people??! You might as well use your hands at that point!
And it seems suspiciously like they were purposefully set up to fail, but why? What does Putin gain? I guess maybe to test the strength of Ukranian forces or serve as a distraction? Or maybe dictators just make mistakes, especially cheapskate dictators to whom human life is worth nothing.
Apparently, even though the conscripts are of dubious quality, Russia has been able to put increased pressure on some frontlines and even though Ukrainian forces chew through the conscrips, they do take increased casualties. Putin would sacrifice hundreds of Russians to kill dozens of Ukrainians. What a disgusting, Hitleresque dictator.
War on a shoestring budget: Ukraine shows drone dropping 40mm grenades on tanks (https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1589094443256532992?s=46&t=kp-NRwhc1ppLWS2Ur8c0zQ) (no gore)
https://i.imgur.com/6cGAt5e.mp4
(https://i.imgur.com/EWCbNJS.jpeg)
Definitely the perfect thing to use on a country famous for its MANPADS.
ISW assessment November 6th (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-6)
QuotePutin and key Kremlin officials had increased their references to the use of nuclear weapons from Putin's September 30 annexation speech and throughout October, likely to pressure Ukraine into negotiations and to reduce Western support for Kyiv. Putin made several general references to nuclear weapons in his September 30 speech but avoided directly threatening the use of nuclear weapons.[4] Putin's rhetoric during this speech and throughout October was consistent with his previous nuclear threats and failed to generate the degree of fear within the Ukrainian government that the Kremlin likely intended.
QuoteKey Kremlin officials began collectively deescalating their rhetoric regarding the use of nuclear weapons in early November.
Russian troops in Belarus live in poor sanitary conditions, contract disease (https://en.socportal.info/en/news/russian-mobilized-in-berlarus-massively-sick-due-to-poor-sanitary-conditions/)
QuoteCurrently, there is a large-scale outbreak of various diseases among these soldiers. These are mainly respiratory diseases (bronchitis, sore throat, pneumonia, asthma exacerbation) and infections of the gastrointestinal tract
QuoteThis is due to the military living in unsuitable conditions, mostly in field tents without proper sanitary conditions.
QuoteAlso, tensions between the military of the two countries are growing in Belarus. Numerous conflict situations are related to the precedents of Russian military's disparaging attitude towards Belarusians. In particular, using humiliation based on ethnic characteristics.
Hmmm...another vulnerability. Several, in fact. An unscrupulous person might even seek to deliberately exacerbate Belarussian-Russian tensions...
In naval news, a Russian missile cruiser and destroyer (https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1589585277399564291) were in the Mediterranean for months trying to form up with the Black Sea fleet (what remains of it) and but were prevented by Turkey. After waiting and waiting, they finally gave up and are making their way back to their base in eastern Russia, currently spotted in the Indian Ocean (https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/november/12434-two-russian-warships-enters-territorial-waters-of-sri-lanka.html)
Russian priest who urged Russians to have more kids to feed to the meatgrinder (I'm 90% sure he phrased that differently) has died in Ukraine. (https://twitter.com/A_SHEKH0VTS0V/status/1589323759327985665?t=McCURkNbBykcssOjnyRagQ&s=19)
C'est dommage.
Advanced air defense (NASAMS and Aspide) have arrived in Ukraine, strengthening Ukrainian air defenses (https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1589571269363904512)
Bottom of the barrel: Russia only has roughly 120 Iskander missiles left (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3609367-russia-has-nearly-120-iskander-missiles-left-in-stock-intelligence.html)
That explains the sporadic missile attacks and Russia's desperate attempt to replenish missile stocks with Iranian missiles.
In Kherson region, Russian Duma representative's car explodes from a mine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/in-kherson-region-convoy-of-the-russian-mp-blows-up-on-a-french-mine/)
Any injuries/deaths are unknown, but it was a french mine, so presumably everyone in the car was smoking. :P
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 07, 2022, 09:51:51 AMRussian priest who urged Russians to have more kids to feed to the meatgrinder (I'm 90% sure he phrased that differently) has died in Ukraine. (https://twitter.com/A_SHEKH0VTS0V/status/1589323759327985665?t=McCURkNbBykcssOjnyRagQ&s=19)
C'est dommage.
His mother was quoted as saying "oh well, I have other and some potato too"
In a recent failed Russian assault (https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1589605297051815937), a big part of the reason why it failed is because they rushed directly towards fortified positions and notably failed to clear any basements along the way 🌻
Hundreds of Russians killed daily as Donetsk is "littered with bodies" (https://www.newsweek.com/donetsk-littered-russian-bodies-hundreds-killed-daily-zelensky-1757674) - Zelenskyy
It's true. Today, the kill count is over 700 and based on footage, the Ukrainians have gotten terrifyingly good with drone-dropped munitions as well as Bayraktar strikes and superbly accurate artillery strikes.
Bushes do not conceal as well as Russian soldiers think, and russian foxholes often serve as shallow graves. Even the rare genius who put a tarp over his hole merely allows the Ukrainian gunner to do a neat trickshot and post it on the internet for the world to see. A hell of a way for his mom to find out.
The only paths to safety are by remaining in Russia or surrendering. Even spending a single night in Ukraine can prove deadly.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 05, 2022, 12:27:53 AM(https://i.redd.it/j0pt3i4673y91.jpg)
Can't argue with that logic.
"Me like out-house better. Stink very good. And shower inside? Crazy stuff." (Wow!)
Quote from: ferdmonger on November 08, 2022, 08:50:02 PM"Me like out-house better. Stink very good. And shower inside? Crazy stuff." (Wow!)
Rain inside home? Bad omen.
US approves sale of 8 HIMARS to Lithuania (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/u-s-approved-possible-foreign-military-sale-of-8-himars-systems-to-lithuania/)
Ammo included, including extended range missiles. I want to stress that this is to Lithuania, not Ukraine. But if Lithuania were to donate or sell such systems to Ukraine, the US might publicly disapprove of such a move but does not have a say over what Lithuania does with systems it legally owns.
I would also like to remind everyone that those extended-range missiles have a maximum range of 150km, which could theoretically threaten a wide variety of military targets currently engaged in hostilities, even if it were to remain within Lithuanian borders.
Russia orders general retreat from Kherson city (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kherson-retreat.html)
QuoteMr. Putin was not present at the meeting, distancing him from both an embarrassing defeat and a decision to retreat that, Kremlin analysts say, only he could have made.
QuoteNews of the withdrawal drew anguished and angry responses from some prominent Russian hawks, while others described it as a sensible, tactical retreat to a more defensible front.
A still image taken from a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry purporting to show Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu, right, listening to Gen. Sergei Surovikin, left, at the Joint Russian Forces command center in Ukraine on Wednesday.
Boris Rozhin, a Russian military analyst, called the retreat the Russian Federation's "most serious military defeat since 1991," when it formed. In a Telegram post, he wrote, "If there won't be any upcoming successes with major towns captured and no advancement during the winter offensive, the series of military setbacks would accumulate a much greater internal discontent than sanctions."
QuoteThe occupation forces had telegraphed a possible pullback for weeks, making statements about the difficult position of troops in Kherson and ordering both the Kremlin-appointed regional government and the remaining civilians to flee eastward. The Ukrainian military was skeptical, reporting just days ago that 40,000 Russian troops were west of the river, digging in to fight for the city.
Moscow's apparent decision to pull back allows an orderly withdrawal rather than the kind of sudden collapse and panicked retreat its forces endured from the northeastern Kharkiv region in September, leaving behind a treasure trove of weapons and other equipment that the Ukrainians could use.
Hmm...not making the mistake of leaving weapons/equipment behind that the Ukrainians can use. Let's see how that's going... (https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1590701157235978241)
And on the same day as the Kherson retreat announcement, the Russian-installed "official" in Kherson met a terrible, completely unexpected demise (https://www.npr.org/2022/11/09/1135562829/ukraine-russia-official-kirill-stremousov-kherson)
QuoteStremousov, Ukrainian by birth, was a 45-year-old pro-Russian propagandist known for posting voluminous videos — often from his car.
Pro-dictator, makes propaganda videos from his car, spews disinformation ultimately from Putin, now why does that sound so familiar?
QuoteStremousov had a colorful, eccentric past. In a video he posted on YouTube in 2017, he holds his infant daughter by the arm and leg and swings her around as a form of what he calls exercise, which sparked accusations online of child abuse.
Stremousov ran unsuccessfully for mayor of Kherson and the Ukrainian parliament, and became a well-known opponent of vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Hmmm...still not seeing any parallels...
QuoteUkrainian intelligence officials and past associates told NPR that Stremousov had a thirst for wealth and began using his blog to extort money from local businesses in exchange for not publicizing their wrongdoing.
Still not ringing any bells...
Quote"When the war began, all of them started to work as collaborators," said Marus. "They were not pro-Russian. These were just people who wanted money. They had no sense of patriotism or purpose. They are simply traitors to Ukraine."
Hmmm. Well, I'm glad we don't have anyone like that in the States.
Ukrainian troops have reportedly driven the Russians away from Kherson International Airport in Chornobaivka, a military/civilian airport, and infamously the site of so many attacks that it got its own Wikipedia article (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Chornobaivka_attacks)
39 attacks, a comically large amount of attacks in such a small time. It has arguably seen more death than a Futurama suicide booth, and used with similar intent.
Reports have this as not a calm and orderly retreat, but a panicked rout.
Retreating Russian forces were hounded by artillery fire and disorderly river crossings were no doubt fraught. A HIMARS strike destroyed the pontoon bridge near the now-destroyed Antonivskyi Bridge. It's unknown if anyone was on it at the time.
Currently, Russia can only be said to definitively control a small slice of land north of the Dniper river (https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1591012263259148290).
Man, this is a fast-developing story!
Apparently, Ukrainian troops made it into Kherson (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/11/russia-ukraine-war-live-news-kyivs-forces-close-in-on-kherson-reclaim-dozens-of-towns-in-south) to try their world-famous watermelons. 🍉
(https://i.redd.it/ilk6820zpcz91.jpg)
There's lots of footage of civilians greeting and hugging them. It's quite sweet.
There's also footage of Ukrainians flying their own flag and tearing down Russian propaganda posters (https://twitter.com/dmytrokuleba/status/1591033993298079752). That sort of footage will no doubt be part of future world history curriculum.
Over a dozen towns in Kherson region have been liberated, afaik Kherson City itself is also liberated, as is virtually all of Mykolaiv region. The Russian-occupied portion of Ukraine, which peaked at roughly 25%, has dwindled down to roughly 18% (and dropping fast!). Truly, a historic day.
Why we fight (https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591105306700177408)
Slava Ukrayini!
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 11, 2022, 02:35:45 PMWhy we fight (https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591105306700177408)
Slava Ukrayini!
Ukrainians are super motivated. Putin's soldiers complain they don't even get paid the rubles they are promised. Isn't that
the dictator's handbook rule no. 1: Pay your muscle well?
Russia says they didn't leave a single piece of equipment behind.
Well, here's a helicopter they left behind (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1591154084056551425?t=ln7_NYno_yeOuCGxVnCX5w&s=19)
Damaged blade, but that can be replaced.
Russian kia has reached 80k after yesterday's 810
(https://preview.redd.it/69cbc5ktehz91.jpg?width=616&auto=webp&s=5e199629e52960f725f92803abb675d527ea6be7)
Zelenskyy is working on building a fleet of 100 drone boats (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-shadowy-kamikaze-drone-boats-officially-break-cover)
Lithuania has pitched in (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3612636-lithuanians-raise-250000-for-naval-drone-for-ukraine-fedorov.html)
The previous attack used about a dozen drones, iirc. And while the full extent of the damage is unknown, we do know that at least one missile cruiser and a couple other ships were substantially damaged if not sunk.
We also know that it struck a nerve because Putin tried (and failed) to scrap the grain deal in response, ridiculously demanded that Ukraine guarantee the safety of his military fleet, and launched a missile attack on civilians in some sort of twisted revenge. Also afaik, there have been no new missile attacks from ships, which is very interesting.
If Zelenskyy launches another drone attack, this time with much more drones at his disposal, that would be the end of the Black Sea fleet.
Want to hear a Russian joke? The Kremlin says that Kherson is still Russian (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-status-kherson-part-russia-unchanged-2022-11-11/)
As the frontlines shift further and further south, new artillery targets come within range, with explosive results.
Ukrainian forces hit such a new target: the Chaplynka airfield (https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591557930067038208?s=46&t=F-BuOOiWTvkJ1ese7qq7Hw), about 60km from the edge of the frontline
What's really fascinating about the southern front is that only two roads (read: supply lines) head south to Crimea. So if one or both are threatened, that could be really, really bad for Russian troops in Crimea...
Ukrainian unit turkey shoots Russian armored vehicles near Pavlivka, Donetsk (https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1591454635919052815?t=69a3dIF6v4-hE4ai0ixtyg&s=19)
And yes, the vehicle is front gets instagibbed and the vehicle behind them keeps going straight ahead, presumably attempting to drive by the fresh wreck as if nothing happened instead of scattering or retreating or literally anything else that could improve their survivability. Over and over again. Some major NPC energy there.
Black Sea fleet stuck in port since drone attack (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-black-sea-fleet-stay-in-sevastopol-bay-wary-of-attack-of-naval-drones/), doing little else
Almost every business and country has, to some extent, a culture of lying. White lies, telling the boss what he wants to hear, etc. But Russia has taken this to a whole 'nother level. And dictatorships, by their very nature, promote a culture of lying (if you give the dictator bad news, you die) and because the dictator has all the power and very little truth, this leads to disastrously bad decisions due to a poor understanding of reality.
A common criticism of democracies from authoritarians is that democracies collectively make poor decisions due to everyone having a say and the average person generally not having much knowledge of the situation. Well, that problem is certainly not solved in authoritarian regimes, only exacerbated. Instead of a bunch of people with poor understanding, there is a single person with an even worse understanding due to institutional lying. And instead of many people making a bad call and changing their position in the future (either through changing their minds or through successive generations), we have a single guy making a bad call and maybe changing his mind somewhere down the road or maybe not changing his mind ever and two or three generations have to suffer through it.
In the case of Russia, small exaggerations from the frontlines pass their way to generals and eventually to Putin himself, and by the time he gets it, the reports bear little resemblance to reality. In fact, lying becomes more intense the further it goes up the foodchain. While Private Conscriptovich risks getting shunned for telling the unvarnished truth, Army General Olig Oligarchov and his whole family will definitely die in a particularly brutal fashion if he tells the unvarnished truth. Putin, armed with these definitely 100% true reports, then micromanages the army's next move - to utter disaster. But state propaganda spins the hell out of it to make it look like a success.
This is why you sometimes hear bizarre tales from Russian media or individual people that Russia is destroying both Ukraine and NATO mercenaries in Ukraine (in reality, only a small fraction of NATO hardware makes its way to Ukraine and Western countries tend to not rely on mercenaries as heavily as Russia, so this is exaggeration and projection), that the Ukrainians are so desperate that they're drafting Polish women (methinks they saw some polish equipment and some women soldiers and let their imaginations run wild), or that Russian defeats - if there are any - can be chalked up to Ukrainian supersoldiers. Fictional inputs -> Fictional outputs (just ask the Republicans)
Cell phone service has been restored in Kherson (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3613485-ukrainian-mobile-communication-restored-in-kherson.html)
TV/radio broadcasts have also been restored.
Rail lines are currently being repaired. (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3613172-ukrzaliznytsia-works-towards-restoring-link-with-kherson.html)
But much of the city's infrastructure still lies in ruin. Thankfully, Ukrainian forces have been rushing water and food and medicine to the newly liberated city.
The only reported Russian presence near Kherson city today has been some bodies washing down the Dnieper. 🌻
With the onset of winter, armies must adjust to changing conditions:
(https://i.redd.it/a0ni08r9lwz91.jpg)
Hmmm...which side has better access to night vision and winter uniforms? And the willingness/capability to perform regular equipment maintenance?
Imho, winter generally favors the Ukrainians, who are receiving the gear to weather low temps (the russians, in contrast, reported frostbite early in the war (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-suffering-frostbite-ukraine-war-invasion-frozen-pentagon-1690944)) though launching offensives causes more problems for the attacker than defender. We'll see.
By the truckload: Ukrainian strike levels building where up to 500 Russian forces were hiding. (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/13/7376122/) We don't know the exact number killed, but we do know they removed 2 truckloads of bodies from the building, so I'd say they killed a lot. 🌻🌻🌻
This happened near Dnipriany, which is just south of the Dnieper river, near Nova Kakhovka (where most Russian forces evacuated to after abandoning their positions north of the Dnieper)
Ukrainian 92nd captures 21 Russian soldiers (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/14/starving-freezing-getting-shot-at-by-their-own-regiment-no-wonder-these-russian-draftees-surrendered/?sh=1e58b57b37f7)
The Russian soldiers are middle aged, received 11 days of training, were abandoned by their commanders (a running theme), went without food or water for 3 days, and were even exchanging fire with friendly forces (not accidental)
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces who captured them are well trained and supplied and have high morale.
This sort of lopsided matchup seems to be increasingly common.
Russian troops are in for a cold, cold winter. In contrast, the surrendering troops will be enjoying hot meals and warm cots indoors.
(https://i.imgur.com/Vus8CJk.jpg)
Zelenskyy has been in Kherson city to address the people and lift spirits (and for delicious watermelon 🍉)
Meanwhile, Putin has been in hiding in his Fuhrerbunker or wherever. No one really cares where he is, only if he is alive or dead so the festivities may begin.
Such is the difference between democratically-elected leaders and dictators.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 14, 2022, 03:57:05 PMSuch is the difference between democratically-elected leaders and dictators.
To paraphrase a great poem....And that makes all the difference...
(https://i.redd.it/yrh4i0wfw00a1.jpg)
"How dare you reclaim what I've rightfully stolen!"
The poor conscripts without winter gear are going to suffer badly. Those with winter gear are going to suffer.
I just had a really morbid thought. What if the soil in Ukraine is so rich because of all the bodies buried there? It's been a killing field fought over, many times. I have seen where the pollution from all this advanced warfare is actually going to present a threat to the soil in the region in future. Megalomaniacs present an enduring legacy of ills.
sarc Used to be a guy could just kill someone and bury them, no prob, no pollution. /sarc
A very nice, abridged selection of the amazing history of Ukraine's Jewish population and proof against misinformation portraying Ukraine as being a hostile country towards it's Jewish population - in terms of European countries, it was one of if not the safest historically however.
Also, this guy is just a wonderful historian to listen to.
The UN calls for Russia to make reparations to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/un-general-assembly-calls-russia-make-reparations-ukraine-2022-11-14/)
Nonbinding, but sets the legal framework for further demands for Russian reparations down the road.
Personally, I have little doubt that at the end of this war, Russia will owe reparations. Whether or not they will pay promptly is another matter.
Russia has launched another missile barrage (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63638859), this time during the G20 G19 conference
Such attacks are often undertaken as a face-saving measure after a major defeat to make it seem like they're more formidable than they truly are, but this is a truly brazen display of barbarity as other nations try to reach out and deal with common problems. One such problem looms large in everyone's minds.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 15, 2022, 10:20:59 AMThe UN calls for Russia to make reparations to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/un-general-assembly-calls-russia-make-reparations-ukraine-2022-11-14/)
Nonbinding, but sets the legal framework for further demands for Russian reparations down the road.
Personally, I have little doubt that at the end of this war, Russia will owe reparations. Whether or not they will pay promptly is another matter.
Never, ever, ever sue poor people.
Quote from: the_antithesis on November 15, 2022, 10:32:57 AMNever, ever, ever sue poor people.
Putin and his oligarchs are far from poor. In fact, they are a big part of the reason the rest of Russia is poor.
Two Russian missiles just hit Poland, killing two people (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52).
(https://i.redd.it/mh92hmhmx50a1.jpg)
At the very least, this is a plausible casus belli for Poland and a severe diplomatic incident with the West.
Poland considering Article 4 activation (https://www.dw.com/en/whats-natos-article-4-and-how-does-it-differ-from-article-5/a-60898860)
This would bring it before NATO members to decide a joint course of action.
In other words, the first step to Finding Out in response to an adversarial nation Fucking Around.
Now it's looking likely that the missiles that hit Poland were actually from Ukrainian air defense (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/nato-says-poland-missile-strike-was-not-deliberate-or-ukraines-fault.html)
Still, the only reason those missiles were in the air was because of Russia's barbaric bombardment of civilians and critical infrastructure all over Ukraine, so Russia bears ultimate responsibility.
Russia praised the US's "measured response". Disgusting. Genocidal shitbags got really lucky this time. They stage provocations and false flags all the time, and if the situation were reversed and a casus belli fell on their laps like this, they would no doubt use it as a pretext to do whatever they want. They should thank their lucky stars that we're not them.
Ukrainians capture warehouse of much-needed munitions (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1592853335177977862?t=zKyN4DiRg3OX_EK-RuwAJw&s=19)
There have been several such findings after Russia's rapid rout from Kherson, but this one has the 120mm mortar shells much sought after by Ukrainian forces.
In Russia, an oil depot caught fire (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/an-explosion-occurred-at-an-oil-depot-in-the-oriol-region-of-the-russian-federation/)
Surprisingly, they don't even try a cover story like a smoking accident or rough seas, but claim it was a Ukrainian drone strike.
Russian battalion in Donetsk loses over 50% of its personnel, is disbanded (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/16/7376545/)
"In light of the significant losses in the course of hostilities, the morale among units of occupation forces on the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts has significantly deteriorated and the instances of desertion have become more frequent."
"Surviving military personnel have been transferred to other units."
Wonderful. I'm sure that delaying their deaths for a week or a month will help to improve morale.
The best part is that they have terrible morale and I'm sure LOTS of stories to share with their new units, lowering their morale as well.
There's a reason why modern militaries rotate units out.
Since the I Want To Live project was launched two months ago, it has received over 3500 requests for surrender (https://www.ibtimes.com/3500-russians-soldiers-have-already-requested-surrender-ukraine-army-report-3636915)
That's roughly 58 surrender requests per day.
There's pretty graphic footage of several deceased Russian troops who have been found frozen solid. They were most likely wounded from a drone and either succumbed to their injuries then froze or some combination of both.
The point is that Russians are generally not well equipped, especially not for cold weather, and are demonstrably prone to leaving their own behind. (A fact that no doubt crosses conscripts' minds) In summer, that is bad enough. In harsh winter conditions, this is 100% fatal. When faced with this distinct possibility, what is the best course of action from a conscript's pov?
Russian forces are counting on harsh winter to serve as an ally, to stall Ukrainian advances. But what if the opposite were true? What if Russian positions, often in foxholes or trenches or what can generously be described as homeless encampments, will be ravaged by the cold worst of all? In that case, Russian positions may become untenable and they will have withdraw somewhat to seek true shelter in Ukrainian homes or makeshift camps. Possibly even desert or surrender. Such a winnowing when units are already weak could present opportunities for Ukrainian forces...
Aesop's Fable: The Scorpion and the Frog (or The Dictator and the Underling)
(https://i.imgur.com/dbU7smf.png)
Source (https://globalnews.ca/news/9286653/russian-colonel-shot-dead-in-office-vadim-boyko/)
Working with a dictator is hazardous for your health. Dictators ultimately never reward loyalty or faithful service, therefore they do not deserve it. And since they keep whole countries in fear through cruelty, neither do they deserve safety.
Russian state TV is sometimes really, really funny (https://twitter.com/vidtranslator/status/1593706692423786496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1593706692423786496%7Ctwgr%5Efb1b45232586178c8fa9927bb64b01c440cacceb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_)
1) Old and new(ish) generations divided on nationalizing industries. One wants a return to the old Soviet economy that worked so well (/sarcasm). The other wants to embrace decadent western technologies and extravagances.
2) Apparently not much stuff works in Russia, lol. Plenty of money for supersonic missiles and nukes , but dentures and hearing aids are just too darn expensive! The gyms are also awful, apparently. I'm glad I'm American, and don't have such problems (/sarcasm)
3) Woman talking head tried to get in on the action and got talked over. It basically feels like I'm watching Fox News.
4) Lots of childishness and emotions with very little actual thought involved. I've seen NOD propaganda broadcasts that were more reasonable and purposeful.
The rail line between Kyiv and Kherson back is up and running! First trains are arriving since February.
But about 50% of Ukraine's electrical equipment has been damaged in some way through these missile barrages. Ordinary civilians, not soldiers, are Russia's primary target and the ones who are victimized the worst.
But Ukrainians are optimistic and happy to be rid of marauding orcs from much of their territory (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/18/liberated-kherson-ukrainians-victory-russia-occupation)
Dutch court rules that Russian nationals are responsible for shooting down a civilian airliner over Ukrainian airspace (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/17/three-men-found-guilty-of-murdering-298-people-in-flight-mh17-bombing), murdering all 298 people on board. Tried in abstentia, but hopefully more tangible justice will come in time.
I remember when this first happened, there was a lot of finger-pointing and it was an open question about who did it: Ukrainians, Ukrainian "rebels" (that was a real term that people naively used without irony in those days), or Russians. The last one was viewed as a somewhat outlandish claim because why would Russians kill civilians and cause an international incident? It seemingly made no sense. One would hope that this position has largely been abandoned in the past 9 months.
Most people, confused by all the he-said-she-said accusations and counter-accusations, resolved to be "impartial" and adopt a wait-and-see approach, which imho disappointingly often became a wait-and-forget approach.
Well, now the verdict is in. It was Russia all along. The court made it clear that the 2014 invasion was in fact an international conflict involving Russian proxy forces and not some sort of grassroots rebellion against "nazi" Kyiv, as Moscow has claimed (somewhat successfully at the time, much less successfully this year). People really should have known better. (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2014/11/21/russias-igor-strelkov-i-am-responsible-for-war-in-eastern-ukraine-a41598)
In other news, the Netherlands has summoned the Russian ambassador over it (https://www.dw.com/en/netherlands-summons-russian-ambassador-over-mh17/a-63812977)
Iran and Russia deal: Iranian drones to be assembled in Russia (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/19/russia-iran-drones-secret-deal/)
Come with me if you want to live: Russian soldier surrenders to Ukrainian drone (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/18/russian-soldiers-are-surrendering-to-ukrainian-drones-this-has-happened-before/?sh=af3662066e6a)
Ukrainian intelligence: Russia is planning on carrying out terrorist attack on nuclear power plant in Belarus (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/20/7377151/)
QuoteThe ANPP was built by the Lukashenko regime in 2020 according to a Russian design and with Russian money.
International experts note that the construction took place with gross violations of technological and environmental standards.
QuoteImmediately after the start-up, several serious accidents with equipment explosions occurred at the ANPP.
Because of course it did. :/
After this war, I never want to hear about "rugged" and "reliable" Russian equipment again. Except for rare exceptions, it's subpar and always has been.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 20, 2022, 09:37:33 AM
Just hope this guy isn't teaching lessons to the Russians.
Nah, his videos are usually dated and broad enough that they don't jeopardize opsec. This is the only video he's done on very recent events, come to think of it.
The one I worry about is the Ukrainian guy who posts daily updates and his war maps have changed to show not just Russian army positions, but also Ukrainian army positions. They're a few days old, so it's probably not that bad, but I don't like showing Ukrainian positions at all if possible.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 20, 2022, 02:23:56 PMUkrainian intelligence: Russia is planning on carrying out terrorist attack on nuclear power plant in Belarus (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/20/7377151/)
Because of course it did. :/
After this war, I never want to hear about "rugged" and "reliable" Russian equipment again. Except for rare exceptions, it's subpar and always has been.
That stereotype honestly comes purely from the Kalashnikov as far as I can tell, and that wasn't even designed by an ethnic Russian - and several other iconic "Russian" technologies being the product of Poles, Ukraini, Czechs, Balts, and minorities within the Russian Empire.
All that was left when the Union fell was Muskva and it's duchies too poor to win their own independence... hardly who you want continuing your countries' science projects.
This is not the first, second, or even third time a Soviet-backed (or in this case just the Empire itself) power has found itself having superior numbers but getting their ass handed to them by small, defensive-minded and Western backed powers. I find this to be quite a good example; another great one would be the "Valley of Tears" during the Yom Kippur War.
You would think at some point they would learn, but lucky for them we are getting nearly as stupid as they are as a society. Happens every 100-150 years.
Quote from: Shiranu on November 20, 2022, 11:00:16 PMThis is not the first, second, or even third time a Soviet-backed (or in this case just the Empire itself) power has found itself having superior numbers but getting their ass handed to them by small, defensive-minded and Western backed powers. I find this to be quite a good example; another great one would be the "Valley of Tears" during the Yom Kippur War.
You would think at some point they would learn, but lucky for them we are getting nearly as stupid as they are as a society. Happens every 100-150 years.
I worked with a Russian Soviet defector lab tech. Great guy. I asked him why he defected. His answer surprised me. "Because life is cheap there". Until recently I did not really understand what he meant. It's almost like a culture of suicide.
His wife was a pHD who defected from the Russian Space Agency. She was Ukrainian.
Distressed in Donetsk: Putin wants a break in the war to shore up his forces for further aggression (https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1699500/Putin-Russia-Ukraine-invasion-Donbas-weapons-supplies-military-strategy-vn)
Just a ketchup stain: Russian conscripts in Luhansk Oblast given uniforms belonging to killed and wounded soldiers (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/22/7377386/)
Taken from a cheat sheet (https://imgur.io/gallery/DoIuUxc) to deal with conservative family members' talking points. Naturally, they veer into Kremlin talking points.
(https://i.imgur.com/XsDay73_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
We're not dumping piles of cash on Zelenskyy, we're donating military equipment already produced and idle for use in a defensive war to protect civilians in Ukraine. That's a worthy cause in and of itself.
The cherry on top is that a small fraction of our military equipment is being used to absolutely cripple one of our most powerful and aggressive rivals, which helps protect not just Ukraine but arguably Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and other countries in the general vicinity of Russia. You'd think that people worried about inflation and the price of goods and the free flow of trade would be especially worried about the trade-disrupting effects of Russian aggression. (Prices increase when supplies are destroyed or blocked)
I also find it very strange that there was an argument that we had to go into Korea and Vietnam and Cuba and a bunch of South American countries to "fight the red menace" but donating some HIMARS or Predator drones or Abrams or F-16s is too much because "we don't wanna make the commies mad". Dafuq!
Russian commanders encourage their soldiers to rape (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/some-russian-commanders-knew-sexual-violence-or-encouraged-it-says-lawyer-2022-11-23/)
In case anyone thought this stuff was just incidental. No, it's planned.
Wagner also actively seeks out prisoners with HIV/hepatitis to recruit (https://www.yahoo.com/video/wagner-group-recruits-large-number-083456200.html), making that encouragement especially heinous.
Just in case anyone's wondering where Russia sits on the ol' good/evil alignment chart - it's so far on the evil side that it falls on the next page.
Even after this war is over, I hope sanctions are never lifted and they achieve their dream of becoming West/Worst Korea.
It seems the European Parliament agrees with my assessment because they have designated Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-lawmakers-declare-russia-state-sponsor-terrorism-2022-11-23/)
Kind of a misnomer since the term implies that they merely associate with terrorists rather than engage in terrorism themselves. But either one is most certainly true.
On the plus side, the Ukrainians are getting very, very good at dropping grenades/mortars from drones.
There's recent footage of whole squads fatally wounded by these things. A recent one had a Russian commander attempting to off himself to save himself the agony.
If only fresh conscripts could see what's waiting for them before it's too late, there's no way they'd allow themselves to be taken to Ukraine.
The Ukrainians don't want to have to kill them and they don't want to die. I'm sure a mutually beneficial agreement can be reached, provided of course that all parties are willing to recognize their common enemy.
Ukrainian forces bomb Russian ammo depot, 50 kia, 50 wounded (https://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-army-bombs-russian-ammunition-depot-killing-50-soldiers-50-more-injured-3639809)
Kherson resistance fighters reveal how they killed Russian invaders (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/11/23/kherson-ukraine-resistance-fighters-russia-kiley-dnt-tsr-vpx.cnn)
spoiler: drunk
(https://i.redd.it/fts7xfsgox1a1.jpg)
Translation: this light is sufficient
(It's a daily tally of Russian KIA)
I'm pleased to report that power has been restored to much of Ukraine, including Kyiv. Ukraine currently meets about 70% of its power needs (https://www.yahoo.com/now/power-system-already-70-restored-140400318.html), despite desperate Russian attempts to destroy its power grid.
Ukrainian forces blow up Rashist artillery unit (https://en.socportal.info/en/news/ukrainskie-sily-unichtozhili-orudie-s-kotorogo-rossiyane-ubili-mladentca-v-zaporozhe/) that shelled a hospital and killed a newborn baby
Russian armored convoy destroyed in Ukraine, including a T-90M tank (https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1596119503535996928)
As you can see, it does in fact toss its turret, despite Russian claims to the contrary.
Russia says it must deploy 5 million troops to achieve victory (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/24/7377855/)
Good luck with that! They're struggling to pay and feed and supply and train (assuming they still do that) the troops they already have! Which is well short of a million, iirc.
Not to mention hardware. The last couple million will probably be driving T-35s and T-28s.
Russia can field 5 million troops like China can field 500 million!
Kremlin plots assassination of Belarus dictator Lukashenko, seizure of his military for use in Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3622211-kremlin-plotting-to-liquidate-lukashenko-seize-control-of-belarus-army-think-tank.html)
According to a US-based think tank, so take it with a helping of salt.
Still, Russia is deeply unhappy about Belarus's half-hearted participation in the war. Initially only used as a base of attack and much-needed hospitals for increasing numbers of wounded Russians, Belarus has had to give up a lot of military hardware to the Russians and reportedly are also creating units composed half by Russians and half by Belarusians. There can only be one purpose for such a move - to drag Belarusians into Putin's war of aggression and meatgrinder.
As the war drags on and Russia becomes increasingly desperate for manpower, especially non-Russian manpower, extreme methods such as provocations or assassination become more likely.
Only time will tell if Belarusians will allow themselves to be slave to Dictator Putin or if they will resist such moves.
Russia reporedly removing the nuclear warheads from aging cruise missles (https://www.yahoo.com/now/britain-says-russia-likely-removing-070947904.html), filling them with conventional explosives, then firing them at Ukraine
What desperation!
Also, Ukraine may be inadvertently causing nuclear arms reduction, so kudos for that.
Wagner wasn't happy about Russia being branded a sponsor of terrorism by the European Parliament, so in a pale imitation of mafia movies, they sent a sledgehammer with fake blood to the European Parliament (they executed a Wagner soldier who had allegedly defected to Ukraine with a sledgehammer)
Estonia responded by sending them a pair of handcuffs (the Wagner leader is wanted by the FBI with a $250,000 bounty on his head)
For a long time, Russians had an unofficial agreement with Dictator Putin - he runs the country, they won't be political so long as they are left in peace. How's that working out for Russians? Her only son, drinking from puddles and running for his life from a tank. Now seems like a good time to get political.
Edit - the second video is an admission to using white phosphorus. It is my hope that such audio is one day played at The Hague.
Speak of the devil, the Belarus foreign affairs minister is dead (https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1596524311275503616?s=20&t=sklg9uu4qRutj84QznnjNA) under suspicious circumstances.
Not much to report. Power is almost totally restored. More shelling along the fronts, but not much movement.
Neither side is very mobile considering that roads are very muddy and cold but not yet frozen. After it freezes over, then both sides will be able to travel more freely, assuming they have plans to advance.
The daily ISW assessment (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-27) has some rather interesting tidbits:
QuoteRussian defensive positions are optimized to defend against Ukrainian forces attempting to advance along GLOCs rather than driving cross-country as Ukrainian forces have previously done.
That's...a choice. Definitely a choice. I dunno, if the other guy used scissors last round, paper probably isn't the best call, but you do you Russia.
QuoteMost of the Russian field fortifications in eastern Kherson are nevertheless optimized to defend against drives along the roads and would be very vulnerable to envelopments across the open countryside.
Hmmm...
QuoteThe tactical vulnerabilities of these defensive positions are mirrored in a similar operational-level vulnerability. Russian forces would be under threat of attacks on their uncovered flanks or even complete encirclement if Ukrainian forces were able to cross the Dnipro River both in the Kherson City-Nova Kakhovka area to the north of most Russian fortifications and to initiate a substantial mechanized campaign from a base on or near the Kinburn Spit to the west of most fortifications.
The Russians also likely sent mobiks (conscripted soldiers, often with poor...well, everything) to man the defensive lines closer to the front while the more experienced troops occupy defensive lines further from the frontlines. That means that outer defenses crumble rapidly. Lots of vulnerabilities to exploit.
More of the Snake Island defenders have been released from Russian captivity (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/26/ukraine-news-russia-war-latest-live-kherson-evacuation-power/) in a prisoner swap
(https://i.redd.it/22cnastnzr2a1.jpg)
Can't argue with that
(https://i.redd.it/0rumuivntv2a1.jpg)
Replacing BTGs are Thieving Tactical Groups (TTGs), Marauding Tactical Groups (MTGs), and Retreating Tactical Groups (RTGs)
Not linking because of graphic photos, but near Bakhmut, Ukrainian paratroopers overtook a Russian position and the Russians...well, they'll be pushing up sunflowers come spring. The stench will probably take much longer to go away.
Suffice it to say that Bakhmut is holding, though it is still a very tense situation.
There's also footage of Russia scoring a direct hit with a Lancet drone (suicide drone) on a Ukrainian howitzer (hit while being towed)
It hit the howitzer near the wheel on one side.
It barely did enough damage to require the Ukrainians to change the tire. The howitzer is almost certainly still operational.
A similar thing happened with the much more heavily-armored Panzerhaubitze 2000 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/11/29/hedgehog-armor-saves-ukraines-german-built-super-howitzer-from-russian-kamikaze-drone/?sh=119aa26924ff). Did enough damage to require repairs, but didn't damage anything critical or hurt anyone.
Russia's definitely going to have problems exporting its military gear in the near future.
The city of Kursk in Russia experiences mysterious power outage (https://news.yahoo.com/russias-kursk-oblast-authorities-report-194241355.html)
Today's proverb: sooner or later, an arsonist watches his house burn down
This Russian soldier has very common complaints: hellish conditions, encounters with Ukrainian bomb-dropping drones, high casualties (~50% KIA), poor command, pervasive lawlessness, urge to frag the commander and return to Russia
But what really caught my attention was apparently, a whole company was poisoned by Romani/gypsies.
That's a huge vulnerability (alcoholism) cleverly exploited. This is something that has happened at least twice now. Combined with their penchant for looting and the desperate desire for such goods, this remains an unpatched vulnerability that can be exploited again and again with incredibly powerful results...
(https://preview.redd.it/qz5vzvumla3a1.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=2cd0e780b91e602fef225f15ca4b204b994413cf)
November has been the deadliest month yet.
It's also important to note:
* In July, HIMARS became active in Ukraine
* In late August, Ukraine launched the Kherson counteroffensive
* In early September, Ukraine launched the Kharkiv counteroffensive
* On September 21, Putin announced a "partial" mobilization
* On October 1, Ukrainian forces liberated Lyman
* On November 11, Ukrainian forces liberated Kherson
The point is that overall, the progress of the war has shown a sharp swing in Ukraine's favor since summer, both in terms of Russian KIA and liberated territory.
The Russians have withdrew/repositioned some units in the Zaporizhzhia front, which is very interesting news since it's coupled with Russian forces making preparations to "evacuate" civilians as well, much like they did in Kherson. And we all know how that turned out.
To quote ISW (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-1):
QuoteRussian military movements in Zaporizhia Oblast may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend critical areas amidst increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian force concentrations and logistics. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 1 that Russian forces withdrew or are currently withdrawing personnel from Polohy, Myhailivka, and Inzhenerne in Zaporizhia Oblast.
QuoteThe withdrawal from a critical position may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend the entire frontline in Zaporizhia Oblast and are prioritizing where to concentrate forces. It is just as likely that Russian forces are reorienting their grouping in Zaporizhia Oblast and may move different personnel back into these settlements, however.
This could turn out to not be significant, but it could also be
very significant since any weakening of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia could lead to yet another Ukrainian advance. And this one would be the most damaging to Putin's ambitions yet, a scenario that Russian military bloggers have been predicting and dreading for months.
(https://www.economist.com/img/b/608/853/90/media-assets/image/20220910_EUM962.png)
(apologies for the outdated map, I'm using it only to illustrate the geographical importance of the Zaporizhzhia region, not to show current deployments)
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that a Ukrainian advance in Zaporizhzhia is *VERY BAD* for Russians, since it could bisect Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine and basically cut off all Russian forces in the Kherson region and Crimea from supply/reinforcement, causing that entire front to collapse.
Meanwhile, the sprawling frontline would shrink to just Donetsk and Luhansk - a much more manageable size for Ukraine. After that, the end of the war is much closer and its outcome is much more assured.
This scenario may not be in the cards just yet, but with the uptick in Russian losses (500+ KIA per day takes a toll), Western military hardware continuing to make its way into Ukraine and possibly expanding quite a bit in the near future, and Russian mobilizations failing to make a strategic impact, it's simply a matter of time before Russian forces rout somewhere and Ukrainian forces conduct a rapid liberation of another sizable chunk of Ukraine.
In a gesture of goodwill, a Russian Mig-31 crashed itself immediately after takeoff in Russia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/mig-31-fighter-crashed-in-russia/)
Both pilots ejected safely.
Russia demands illegitimate land-grab scheme be legitimized as a precondition to peace talks (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63832151)
Translation: Russia not interested in peace at the moment
EU countries agree to $60 cap on Russian oil (https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/12/02/following-g7-plan-eu-countries-near-deal-to-cap-russian-oil-at-60-per-barrel)
Poland and the Baltic states wanted a $30 cap. My man. They know what's up.
Russia ready to give up nuclear power plant it unsuccessfully used as nuclear blackmail, but only if Ukraine allows Russian oil and gas to flow through unimpeded (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/2/7378996/)
Why not just use Nordstream and skip Ukraine entirely? /s
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 02, 2022, 03:12:07 PMRussia demands illegitimate land-grab scheme be legitimized as a precondition to peace talks (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63832151)
Translation: Russia not interested in peace at the moment
Everyone knows a deal with Putler is worthless.
(https://i.redd.it/mya1k3sldh3a1.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/2rynv5wvlo3a1.jpg)
They made the same mistake in Severodonetsk, which was captured for political rather than strategic reasons and lost so many troops in the process that subsequent Russian advances were slowed down tremendously or put on hold.
Now, they're fixated on Bakhmut when they really need to be worried about the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Win or lose in Bakhmut, they will have wasted so many troops there that the Ukrainians will be able to launch another successful counterattack elsewhere.
And eventually, these hard-fought Russian conquests will be retaken quickly and with minimal casualties because spent armies simply can't continue to fight.
Russia says it won't accept the EU's price cap on Russian oil and is "analysing how to respond" (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-price-cap-is-dangerous-will-not-curb-demand-our-oil-2022-12-03/)
Here's my response:
1) Take it or leave it.
2) I make two Putins every morning before I shower.
Imho, if the Russians try any funny business, the EU should go with Poland's plan. Cheapskate dictator deserves oil revenues to match.
I'm not the kind of person to indulge in gossip, especially malicious gossip, but this particular gossip is seemingly tailor-made to humiliate and undermine a genocidal dictator and shoe-in for this year's Nobel War Prize, so I might as well.
Putin falls on his ass and soils himself (https://www.gawker.com/politics/vladimir-putined-his-pants)
Point and laugh, everyone. If you feel inclined, feel free to spread memes about it. Remember, Hitler only had one ball. :P
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 03, 2022, 05:41:17 PMI'm not the kind of person to indulge in gossip, especially malicious gossip, but this particular gossip is seemingly tailor-made to humiliate and undermine a genocidal dictator and shoe-in for this year's Nobel War Prize, so I might as well.
Putin falls on his ass and soils himself (https://www.gawker.com/politics/vladimir-putined-his-pants)
Point and laugh, everyone. If you feel inclined, feel free to spread memes about it. Remember, Hitler only had one ball. :P
The pope has the resources to take him in, protect him, and give him a life of luxury in the Vatican. They are good at that, no?
Update on the oil cap saga (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-economy-prices-european-union-5492e005824aa1de529c8629a59e7982):
Quote"From this year, Europe will live without Russian oil," Ulyanov tweeted. "Moscow has already made it clear that it will not supply oil to those countries that support anti-market price caps.
QuoteRussia's crude has already been selling for around $60 a barrel, a deep discount from international benchmark Brent, which closed Friday at $85.42 per barrel.
Okay, so I want to get this straight:
1) Russian oil is already selling at less than $60 a barrel. That's the market rate.
2) The EU says it won't pay a dime more than $60 a barrel to Russia again.
3) Russia freaks out at this "anti-market" rate that doesn't affect anything right now because of #1 and threatens to not sell oil to Europe at all, essentially embargoing itself (that'll teach 'em!)
Essentially, Russia is mad at basically just disrespect at this point and threatens to not allow Europe to fuel its genocidal war. Oh no, anything but that! /sarcasm
QuoteThe Russian Embassy in Washington insisted that Russian oil "will continue to be in demand"
LOL, then what's the problem? Why so upset?
Quoteand criticized the price limit as "reshaping the basic principles of the functioning of free markets."
(https://media.tenor.com/NnVku7ZMJ8oAAAAM/uh-thats-the-point-christina-applegate.gif)
QuoteThe office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, called Saturday for a lower price cap, saying the one adopted by the EU and the Group of Seven leading economies didn't go far enough.
"It would be necessary to lower it to $30 in order to destroy the enemy's economy faster," Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelenskyy's office, wrote on Telegram, staking out a position also favored by Poland — a leading critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.
Zelensky favors Poland's $30/barrel cap. Based.
Conscripted Russians just walk off base, go AWOL:
This allegedly happened at a military base in Kazan:
(https://archive.aramcoworld.com/issue/201105/images/kazan/map.jpg)
Here's some interesting news: Ukrainian forces have raised their flag on the south bank of the Dnieper river.
So they have successfully crossed the river and formed a bridgehead to threaten Russian positions in the area.
Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian SU-34 near Bakhmut (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599047578158759938?t=im27PoDTkLe3KVwuZDYgxQ&s=19)
Fun fact: only 151 of these were ever built, so each loss is pretty significant. By October, Russia had lost at least 17 in Ukraine. (https://defence-blog.com/wreckage-of-russian-su-34-bomber-found-in-ukraine/) Now it's 18, afaik.
Some Russian areas languish in the cold because utility workers were mobilized (https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1599043912861106176)
QuoteThe "We can explain" Telegram channel reports that several regions and cities in Russia, including Astrakhan, Krasnodar and Rostov, are suffering problems with their communal heating systems because the engineers responsible for maintaining them have been mobilised.
QuoteDespite being engineers, most of the mobilised workers were used as infantry. They were "told to hold a difficult section of the front, although there were no professional soldiers among our men, some had just finished their military studies, others were already in their 40s."
They were mobilized after the mobilization officially "ended" and essential workers are supposed to be exempt, but they're often mobilized anyway.
Everyone's favorite Aussie giving hour-long powerpoint presentations about war/economics/logistics is back!
I haven't finished the video yet, but I have seen some indicators that winter might be a tad rougher on the Russians than the Ukrainians (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/27/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/?sh=6198d5ae4254):
QuoteUnder-trained, under-supplied and ambivalently led, Russians in the region are freezing to death by the dozen.
Shocking videos that have circulated online in recent weeks tell a tragic story. The videos, shot by the Ukrainian brigades' hovering drones, depict Russians in the late stages of hypothermia, so cold and sick that they barely react when the drones drop lethal improvised bombs on them.
And that was in November.
Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down recently (https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1599507511144390657?s=21)
Happens quite often, so it wouldn't be big news in and of itself, but the crew was highly decorated and "productive" on the front. Suffice it to say their output (and altitude) has fallen sharply.
Iranian Shahed drones haven't been seen in Ukraine for over two weeks, fueling speculation that Russia has spent its entire stock quickly
That's a possibility, but the more likely explanation is that they simply can't function in cold climates (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12/05/iranian-shahed-drones-are-ineffective-in-cold-weather-says-ukraine/?swcfpc=1)
Yep, you read that right. The drones that Russia - a country famous for being cold - uses to invade a country that is often also quite cold can't tolerate cold temperatures. That would be fine if these drones made their debut in April or May, but no, they debuted in friggin' October - a month that's typically not super far away from winter. It makes no sense!
Evidentially, the Russians were in the process of buying them back in June. They just kind of forgot that training and deployments tend to take a while - it's not visiting a car dealership and driving it off the lot the same day.
Either way, this kind of stuff-up definitely put a crimp in Kremlin plans and lends itself to some rather unflattering comparisons:
Explosions reported at two Russian airbases (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63857451)
A fuel tanker exploded at the airbase near Ryazan. Careless smoking, no doubt.
And the Engels airbase hosts strategic bombers for aggression in some unknown region and some of this aggression may have found its way back, damaging two bombers. It could have been worse.
Perhaps for everyone's safety, those bombers should remain parked and wait for lingering aggression to subside. Shouldn't take more than a couple years.
High-profile collaborator arrested in Kherson
(https://mil.in.ua/en/news/introducer-of-ruble-zone-former-head-of-one-of-the-bank-of-the-russian-federation-detained-in-kherson/)
QuoteAt the beginning of the full-scale invasion, he supported the occupiers and agreed to head one of the branches of a Russian bank.
Quote[He] tried to set up more than 200 banking "representative offices" of Russia in the region. And most of these funds were to finance the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine.
QuoteHe set up his workplace in the building of the captured state bank. Heading the invaders' bank, the "official" forced local entrepreneurs to switch to commercial settlements in Russian rubles and deduct part of the profits for the benefit of the occupation administration.
After the liberation of Kherson from the invaders, the man tried to hide in one of the city's hospitals. However, he was tracked down and detained.
Ukrainian forces rescue two Ukrainian marines from temporarily-occupied territory in special operation (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/two-ukrainian-marines-escaped-from-occupied-territory-due-to-special-operation/)
As has become second nature to Russia at this point, Russia launched another volley of missiles at civilian targets in order to seemingly make up for huge military setbacks and assorted failures.
Out of around 70 missiles, 60+ were successfully shot down (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-forces-shot-down-over-60-missiles-air-force-command/).
The invaders targeted energy facilities in the Kyiv, Vinnytsia and Odesa regions.
Two civilians were killed in the Zaporizhzhia region. Three more civilians were injured, including a child.
In the Odesa region, some houses were hit, injuring two civilians.
Kalibur missiles shot at civilian houses. Russia is certainly a terrorist state. That is the plain and obvious truth of the matter.
Another truth is that some of these missiles were fired from the half-dead Black Sea fleet. This act of terrorism is deserving of another visit by the Black Sea drone fleet, this time not stopping at mere damage, but utterly wiping out the terrorist presence there and reuniting the Moskva with the rest of its fleet.
Russia begs Israel not to interfere in its transfer of military equipment from Syria to Ukraine (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-asks-israel-not-to-interfere-in-equipment-transfers-from-syria-to-ukraine-war-50288739.html)
Of course, if Israel were to interfere in a Nazi-esqe invasion in eastern europe, it would not only save lives, it would also infuriate a pariah dictator who can do little to retaliate and win Israel the gratitude of Ukraine and goodwill from most of the rest of the world.
Decisions, decisions...
The Kursk airfield is on fire. Cause unknown.
Mysterious fire in Russian territory not far from Ukraine (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12/06/drones-atatck-russian-classified-plant-located-80-km-from-ukrainian-border/)
QuotePresumably, two drones flew into the territory of the plant, located in Bryansk Oblast 80 km from the Ukrainian border. They fell and exploded three meters away from five-ton fuel tanks with diesel fuel. As the tanks were empty at this moment, a "serious fire" was avoided, Baza claimed. However, a video shared by a local Telegram channel shows that a rather large fire
Russians say the fuel tanks were empty and undamaged.
Video shows tanks on fire, and it stands to reason, something within them consumed by fire.
How to reconcile these mutually exclusive claims?
(https://i.redd.it/mjl1x86tuj4a1.png)
I don't normally like interacting with Russian propaganda, but this is so crappy it might have the opposite effect and innoculate people against it. Plus, it's a teaching moment.
1) Portraying Russia and China as "hemmed in" by having neighbors they aren't allowed to conquer - as if that were a bad thing - is textbook advocacy of imperialism. As Jeff Foxworthy might say, if you think it's unfair that it's not okay to land-grab anymore, you might be an imperialist.
Plus, not invading your neighbors is the normal and natural state of affairs, not the other way around. Do you see Canada demand Alaskan territory? Or Ireland try to attack its neighbors? No, because that's ridiculous.
2) If Putin didn't decide to conquer Ukraine, there would be no war in Ukraine right now. It was entirely his call and his blunder.
Blaming NATO for this is not only incorrect, it's such a childish abdication of moral responsibility.
3) I can't help but notice that they forgot to mention why Russia is being sanctioned. Invading your neighbor to steal land and resources is bad enough, but Russia has also massacred civilians, tortured civilians, and committed genocide - and all this stuff is sanctioned and premeditated. If that's not worthy of sanctions, what is?
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 07, 2022, 09:43:26 PM(https://i.redd.it/mjl1x86tuj4a1.png)
I don't normally like interacting with Russian propaganda, but this is so crappy it might have the opposite effect and innoculate people against it. Plus, it's a teaching moment.
1) Portraying Russia and China as "hemmed in" by having neighbors they aren't allowed to conquer - as if that were a bad thing - is textbook advocacy of imperialism. As Jeff Foxworthy might say, if you think it's unfair that it's not okay to land-grab anymore, you might be an imperialist.
Plus, not invading your neighbors is the normal and natural state of affairs, not the other way again. Do you see Canada demand Alaskan territory? Or Ireland try to attack its neighbors? No, because that's ridiculous.
2) If Putin didn't decide to conquer Ukraine, there would be no war in Ukraine right now. It was entirely his call and his blunder.
Blaming NATO for this is not only incorrect, it's such a childish abdication of moral responsibility.
3) I can't help but notice that they forgot to mention why Russia is being sanctioned. Invading your neighbor to steal land and resources is bad enough, but Russia has also massacred civilians, tortured civilians, and committed genocide - and all this stuff is sanctioned and premeditated. If that's not worthy of sanctions, what is?
I bet Putin sees this as a civil war. In his mind Ukraine is Russia. He is an irrational, isolated murderer (who probably has cancer) playing the nuclear holocaust card. So dangerous. I wish the Chinese would pressure Putin to give it up. That could work.
US basketball star Brittney Griner was released from Russian captivity (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/08/world/brittney-griner-russia-ukraine-news) in exchange for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout
Yes, the Merchant of Death guy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Bout). He was arrested for conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens and officials, delivery of anti-aircraft missiles, and providing aid to a terrorist organization. She was arrested for having hashish oil (victimless crime).
Mysterious explosions rock temporarily-occupied Berdyansk airfield (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1600864191425892352)
Russia sure is having a hard time keeping its airfields safe lately.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 06, 2022, 10:05:06 AMMysterious fire in Russian territory not far from Ukraine (https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12/06/drones-atatck-russian-classified-plant-located-80-km-from-ukrainian-border/)
Russians say the fuel tanks were empty and undamaged.
Video shows tanks on fire, and it stands to reason, something within them consumed by fire.
How to reconcile these mutually exclusive claims?
Maybe they were empty when the explosions happened, but the problem was that they were attempting to refuel them while they were still on fire?
Mysterious explosion in Sevastopol (https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrine-sevastopol-explosion-russian-attacks/32167118.html)
Situation still very tense at Bakhmut, currently the focal point of the war.
In accordance with his usual tactical genius, Putin has decided to launch a frontal assault (https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1601358013427642368) of a highly fortified and defensible position, exacerbating Russian losses for little/no gain.
Ukraine receives "threat emitters" from the US (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-receives-threat-emitters-from-the-usa/)
(https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/cnc_gamepedia_en/images/0/06/RAR_Fake_Sub_Pen_Cameo.png)
Basically, these are fake radar systems that appear as real radar systems to the enemy and will complicate their efforts to target real anti-air missile systems and surveillance radar.
Considering that these dolts have been firing super expensive and limited rockets at wooden HIMARS, this should work like a charm.
And yes, that picture is from C&C Red Alert, a totally fictitious game where Russia, led by a maniacal dictator, invades Europe. They're opposed by Allied powers, who rely heavily on spying and trickery to frustrate Russian aggression. Completely fictitious.
Mysterious fire engulfs Russian shopping mall (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63914682)
(https://i.imgflip.com/164vbq.jpg)
Putin admits he can't properly clothe frontline troops (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/09/ukraine-russia-news-ukraine-russia-news-putin-war-latest-missiles/)
The Dictator is naked.
Numerous explosions 💥 reported in many different places in temporarily-occupied Crimea (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1601655807204282369)
Lots of careless smoking today.
Will Vlad be in charge of tourist visits?
"Welcome to your new Russian bombed out cities I have recently declared our own. True, they're not what they used to be and will require some small amount of repair at taxpayer expense, but by god they're yours now!"
Also known as I had to level the city to save the city.
Unsforseen difficulties: Russians "recruit" prisoners for war then 20 prisoners go AWOL in Ukraine, necessitating a manhunt in a warzone (https://news.yahoo.com/backfired-putin-prison-recruits-spiral-181323730.html) (combing the area is a tad more difficult with landmines in the mix)
The Russians also had a prisoner desert then returned to Russia and opened fire on police, injuring two according to Russian sources.
Now Wagner recruits are shown videos of Wagner publicly executing recruits. How reassuring. Stellar morale, I'm sure.
Ukrainian HIMARS strike hits Russian barracks in Melitopol (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/11/ukrainian-himars-missiles-hit-russian-occupied-melitopol)
Estimated 150-200 wounded/dead Russian soldiers.
Very kind of Russia to televise the immediate aftermath of such strikes to let Ukraine know the extent of the damage, as they have with the airfield strikes.
Wagner HQ explodes in temporarily occupied Kadiivka (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/11/7380278/)
This is your brain on Putin: Deluded Russian soldier claims he's in Ukraine "to fight the Poles" (https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1602065218661715970)
Mate, if you ever were to really "fight the Poles" they'd eat you for breakfast. Take your cot and three hots and be happy that you'll live to see Putin's downfall.
After a bit of a lull the past few days (300ish), the kill count hit 620 today, with a whopping 24 (!!) Tanks destroyed!
(https://i.redd.it/53kcweq57f5a1.jpg)
In dictator-infested Russia, 12-year-old receives draft notice (https://english.nv.ua/nation/12-year-old-boy-receives-draft-notice-in-russia-news-50290133.html)
(https://i.imgflip.com/6w2t2z.jpg)
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 12, 2022, 07:16:48 AMAfter a bit of a lull the past few days (300ish), the kill count hit 620 today, with a whopping 24 (!!) Tanks destroyed!
My half-asleep ass jumped to the idea of 620 russians driving around in 24 tanks. Like a bunch of clowns in one of those tiny cars.
A joke from President Zelenskyy: (paraphrased)
A Russian wakes up from a year-long coma and asks his father what has happened while he was out.
His father says, "We are at war with all of NATO!"
His son asks how the war is going.
His father admits that they've lost over 90,000 soldiers, a bunch of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and used up most of their missiles.
Incredulous, the son asks how much NATO has lost.
His father replies, "they haven't arrived yet."
Some people are wondering why there aren't a lot of big offensives lately. I'll give you guys a hint:
https://i.imgur.com/6hqa5cZ.mp4
Last night, I got dragged into a long discussion on the morality of warfare.
It all started with a video of HIMARS blowing the crap out of a Russian base.
I take great pride in my country's weapons when used defensively and am so glad they're being put to good use protecting people (just war) rather than used in Middle Eastern adventurism (unjust war)
My dad was aghast at the sheer devastation of the attack and felt bad for the Russian deaths.
I don't feel bad at all, not post-Bucha. They come to Ukraine, they attack civilians, they try to destroy a democracy and conduct genocide. Anything that happens to any Russian military target involved in the war, inside Ukrainian borders or not, is richly deserved and 100% self defense.
And statistically, every Russian military death probably saves some unguessable number of Ukrainian lives - both Ukrainian military and civilians. So on the whole, it's a net positive for humanity.
Obviously, I'd much rather them surrender or retreat so they can live and take no pleasure in death, though I admit, some isolated cases of particularly cruel individuals being neutralized comes with a small measure of schadenfreude. A sip, not a gulp.
Imho, the perceived moral wrongness of blowing up soldiers in trenches with drones, brewing up tanks, and cratering bases should be weighed against the likely outcome of what would happen if they weren't blown up.
Thoughts?
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 14, 2022, 08:59:45 AMLast night, I got dragged into a long discussion on the morality of warfare.
It all started with a video of HIMARS blowing the crap out of a Russian base.
I take great pride in my country's weapons when used defensively and am so glad they're being put to good use protecting people (just war) rather than used in Middle Eastern adventurism (unjust war)
My dad was aghast at the sheer devastation of the attack and felt bad for the Russian deaths.
I don't feel bad at all, not post-Bucha. They come to Ukraine, they attack civilians, they try to destroy a democracy and conduct genocide. Anything that happens to any Russian military target involved in the war, inside Ukrainian borders or not, is richly deserved and 100% self defense.
And statistically, every Russian military death probably saves some unguessable number of Ukrainian lives - both Ukrainian military and civilians. So on the whole, it's a net positive for humanity.
Obviously, I'd much rather them surrender or retreat so they can live and take no pleasure in death, though I admit, some isolated cases of particularly cruel individuals being neutralized comes with a small measure of schadenfreude. A sip, not a gulp.
Imho, the perceived moral wrongness of blowing up soldiers in trenches with drones, brewing up tanks, and cratering bases should be weighed against the likely outcome of what would happen if they weren't blown up.
Thoughts?
Self-defense, especially against authoritarianism is a moral obligation. Russia is paying a price for its own decades-long apathy epidemic.
I've seen a lot of drone and artillery videos, but my absolute favorites are the ones where captured Russian soldiers are getting browbeat by Ukrainians - just completely told off. I could watch those all day. Hell, I could make wafer cookies out of that.
At the end of the day, everyone lives and no one is hurt (though there may be some crying involved) and the fact that the bullied are dominating the bullies is a great gift of cosmic justice.
Plus, it obliterates the stoic/macho warrior Russian propaganda image and I love to see the truth of the matter laid bare like that.
Drowbeat?
(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1066/8352/files/Drow_5e_Dungeons_and_Dragons_large.jpg?v=1584468261)
Wagner unit ambushed and completely destroyed near Bakhmut (https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1603030973624778752)
(https://i.redd.it/yuofdjsodj5a1.png) (14 yo)
The guy at 7 minutes in is the most interesting.
"Americans want to take our land" Mostly barren tundra, so enticing! /s
"Americans have no resources" LOL!
"No oil, no coal" Wait till he hears about Texas and Pennsylvania and West Virginia
"The point of war in Iraq and Afghanistan was to steal resources" That one's very plausible.
"nothing to live for" I feel like this is more of a global problem, but one could make the case that the US doesn't adequately treat mental health problems (just look at our last president)
"nothing to eat" I feel like this is one of the most wrong things that anyone could possibly ever say about anything. Not to say that no one in the US goes hungry, but if I had to give a blanket statement that the US population eats too much or too little, I know which one I'd pick.
Quote from: Cassia on December 14, 2022, 09:45:34 AMRussia is paying a price for its own decades-long apathy epidemic.
Someone will be saying the same of us tomorrow; and someone else the same of them after that.
We all pay a price for apathy, and we are all paying it together. Russia doesn't happen without the West, and the West doesn't happen without Russia.
It's good to see we can still do *something* good, but it's a bad sign how rare it is we see this that we now are celebrating it like Haley's comet.
Quote from: Shiranu on December 14, 2022, 07:43:03 PMSomeone will be saying the same of us tomorrow; and someone else the same of them after that.
We all pay a price for apathy, and we are all paying it together. Russia doesn't happen without the West, and the West doesn't happen without Russia.
It's good to see we can still do *something* good, but it's a bad sign how rare it is we see this that we now are celebrating it like Haley's comet.
I think in many ways the US is hyper-politicized. By all accounts the Russians citizens are pretty much head-in-the-sand when it comes to politics. They don't really even have "politics" as they are wary to even say anything.
Quote from: Cassia on December 14, 2022, 08:01:34 PMI think in many ways the US is hyper-politicized. By all accounts the Russians citizens are pretty much head-in-the-sand when it comes to politics. They don't really even have "politics" as they are wary to even say anything.
Not head-in-the-sand so much as massively misinformed. It's such a police state, there.
It would be really nice if the media laid off the bullhorn about all the trivial shit, and simply reported the news instead of "interpreting" it. Just show me a politician saying something, as opposed to saying "what they really meant", or outright lying. Faux News and OANN, and "Truth" Social, your game is obvious.
Poland's lower house declares Russia a state sponsor of terrorism (https://english.nv.ua/nation/poland-s-sejm-declares-russia-state-terrorism-sponsor-news-50291026.html)
I'm surprised that wasn't already in the books, considering Poland's history with Russia.
Mysterious fire burns at Siberian oil refinery (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/one-of-the-largest-oil-refineries-in-siberia-is-on-fire-in-russia/), one of Russia's largest
Temporarily-occupied Ukrainian city of Donetsk hit with drone strikes (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/15/ukraine-news-russia-war-latest-kherson-kyiv-attacks-live/)
Military base in Luhansk also hit
Supposedly, Putin is gearing up for a fresh run on Kyiv (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/15/ukraine-says-putin-is-preparing-major-offensive-in-new-year), sometime between January and March.
(https://i.imgflip.com/74hojg.jpg)
Certainly an ambitious target. Far too ambitious for a country struggling to take villages.
But on the other hand, it is in keeping with Putin's Hitleresque policy of spending its troops lives on political objectives rather than sensible strategic targets. Presumably, he's been briefed that Ukrainian forces are tied up on the frontlines and the road to Kyiv is wide open (forget that he was also told the same thing this February)
This could turn out to not be true for one of several reasons:
1) Russian propaganda for domestic consumption - "Russian is strongk! Russia no lose! Russia will into Kiev!"
2) Russian propaganda for foreign consumption - to scare Allies and maybe cause the steady stream of arms shipments to waiver. And especially to scare Ukraine into putting its upcoming Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive on hold by pointlessly tying up its units in preparation for an attack that isn't coming, both of which would help Russia tremendously.
3) Ukrainian propaganda to drum up foreign support - to scare Allies to ward off complacency and get them to offer even stronger arms to Ukraine, which will then be used to make the Zaporizhzhia offensive that much easier and potentially end the war much more quickly, saving many lives.
Russians searching online for how to surrender doubles in November (https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/12/15/number-of-russian-soldiers-searching-how-to-surrender-on-internet-doubles-in-a-month/), 70k searches per month
In Kyiv, a defender managed to shoot down a Russian cruise missle with just a machine gun (https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1603752251780222977)
This pairs nicely with the previous story of a grandma who destroyed a Russian drone by throwing a jar of tomatoes at it (https://www.businessinsider.com/kyiv-grandma-took-down-ussian-drone-with-jar-tomato-pickles-2022-3)
Russian morgues overflowing after HIMARS strikes on Melitopol (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/16/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-kyiv-drone-missile-oil-airfield/)
🌻🌻🌻
A collaborator caught spying for the Russians receives a 12-year sentence (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/court-sentences-traitor-who-hunted-for-himars-combat-positions-to-12-years-behind-bars/)
His primary mission was to reveal the coordinates of any HIMARS so Russians could target them.
His secondary mission was to locate critical infrastructure for Russian missile attacks.
He failed at his primary mission, but succeeded at his secondary mission, passing info to the invaders that allowed them to carry out a strike on the water intake system in the city of Selidove.
Quote from: Cassia on December 14, 2022, 04:18:17 PM(https://i.redd.it/yuofdjsodj5a1.png) (14 yo)
"What. Me worry?" (Does kind of have that Alfred E. Neuman look.)
Mysterious explosions rock Crimea, Belogrod, and Kursk (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3635966-explosions-rock-occupied-crimea-russias-belgorod-and-kursk.html)
Reportedly, there's another wave of Russians leaving Crimea.
Coincidentally, the US has declared that Ukraine has the military strength to liberate Crimea (https://thehill.com/policy/international/3778136-biden-official-tells-congress-ukraine-could-take-back-crimea-report/), though they worry about Putin's reaction.
Personally, I don't much worry or care about dictators being unhappy, my sympathies are more with the people they threaten. But hey, you do you.
Elite Russian brigade basically wiped out (https://www.businessinsider.com/elite-russian-brigade-basically-wiped-out-in-ukraine-losses-report-2022-12), taking so many losses that it'll take years to rebuild
A Russian brigade is around 2000 - 8000 soldiers, so we're talking lots and lots of casualties.
US weapons turn the tables on the Russians, allow Ukrainians to inflict heavy losses in artillery duels (https://www.newsweek.com/us-weapons-causing-heavy-russian-losses-amid-artillery-duels-commander-himars-excalibur-1767679)
🌻
Russian soldiers turn to Wikipedia for weapon-handling instructions (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-troops-ukraine-use-wikipedia-weapons-instructions-obsolete-maps-putin-2022-12)
LOL good luck!
I hope they donate, because it truly is the most useful encyclopedia in the world if Russians can use it for weapons training and Ukrainians can use it to track Russian defeats and retreats.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 17, 2022, 04:15:27 PMLOL good luck!
You're starting to sound like Eclectic!
LOL
(https://i.redd.it/pjcodnv81n6a1.jpg)
Bread and circuses.
It's smart of Russia to finally take its morale problem seriously, but it's beyond stupid that they apparently think that opera singers are going to make up for high casualties, poor leadership, bad equipment, expired rations, drinking out of puddles, frostbite, alcoholism, etc.
Wagner pushed back three blocks on the eastern suburbs of Bakhmut (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1604239127674773508?cxt=HHwWiICzvZW_s8MsAAAA)
Progress is being made, but they're still dangerously close and the situation is very tense. Ukraine is still very much in need of heavy equipment like tanks and aircraft, as well as much longer-ranged missiles to threaten Russian logistics.
Ukrainians getting into the holiday spirit (https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1604234694077333509?s=20&t=Sza_PMXWeTbFLtcyI_kR5g). They're even celebrating with some sort of elf.
*bites into a blue-yellow cookie wafer*
Oh yeah, that's the stuff.
Not so friendly fire - Russian tank deliberately blew up Russian checkpoint back in the summer (https://www.businessinsider.nl/a-russian-tank-unit-deliberately-attacked-another-russian-position-in-ukraine-report-says-illustrating-vicious-rivalries-within-putins-army/)
Factional feuds are emerging, with Russians split between the regular armed forces, Rosgvardia, Wagner, and Kadyrovites. Limited coordination between them and no real unified command (they're off doing their own things and reporting through their own chain of command)
Yet another vulnerability. Deliberately stoked tensions or miscommunication could lead to an unfortunate incident, and that would be very helpful for the Ukrainians...
Please take this with a grain of salt and await official confirmation before busting out the bubbly, but it appears that a Ukrainian counterattack has pushed the Russian invaders out of Bakhmut (https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1604803263978782721). Still a tense situation though, but definitely welcome news.
Russia preping for a repeat of Kherson retreat at Melitopol (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/19/7381430/)
Quote"Everything is going according to the very same scenario they followed on the right bank [of the Dnipro river – ed.]. Seems like they really liked it [the scenario – ed.].
At first they were accumulating troops around Kherson, building fortifications, then they reported that they were going to retreat from some settlements, then were preparing for street fights, then were saying that there is still hope for them, then stole what they considered valuable from banks and other institutions.
Basically, they are repeating themselves, they love stepping on the same rake. We will let them follow the same scenario as we already know how it all will end."
I love the Ukrainian sense of humor. Very dry and sardonic.
And we do indeed know how it will end. Ukraine will be liberated.
Rouble takes a dive, mostly over fears of oil restrictions (https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rouble-plunges-below-68-per-dollar-hit-over-7-month-low-2022-12-19/)
Something to bear in mind the next time Russia threatens to cut off Europe: there are consequences for Russia as well, and much more severe ones for a pariah state with an already shaky economy.
Russian losses to date:
(https://i.redd.it/2r41uoc1r07a1.png)
Materiel losses have somewhat slowed as they have largely been depleted, with the remainder focused more on self-preservation than aggression. Manpower losses continue to spike until those too are depleted.
And yes, they're very nearly at 100k KIA. At the current rate, it shouldn't take more than a couple of days.
(https://i.redd.it/8zgkpvrus37a1.jpg)
Entire Russian battalion refuses to fight (https://www.uawire.org/entire-russian-battalion-from-crimea-refuses-to-fight-in-ukraine)
Zelenskyy was at Bakhmut recently (his security detail must be top notch!) and now he's in the US to lobby for more aid.
Red-on-red: Russia shoots down its own attack helicopter (https://defence-blog.com/russia-shoots-down-its-own-ka-52-helicopter-over-ukraine/)...again
Russia now at 99740 KIA (increased by 510 since yesterday)
They're definitely going to hit 100k tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Russia has officially lost over 3000 tanks in less than a year of fighting.
Mysterious fire engulfs Russian base in Mariupol (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-base-on-fire-in-mariupol-ukraine-news-50292268.html)
Latest round of US aid for Ukraine (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-80ae774f3b7cbb3e1b88d1b728961079):
(https://i.redd.it/c5u8hc5xtb7a1.png)
One patriot battery is sort of a misnomer; that's for the whole system/network - multiple radar and launchers.
Additional ammo is also vital. And the JDAMs kits and night vision is extremely useful and will help save a lot of Ukrainian lives.
QuoteThe satellite money would act as a hedge against the possibility that Musk again threatens to stop funding them. Musk shipped the first Starlink terminals to Ukraine just days after Russia invaded in February, and as of October there were more than 2,200 of the low-orbiting satellites providing broadband internet to Ukraine.
Muskov can't afford the alleged $20 million/year for Ukraine but he can afford $44 billion for some dumb website (enough to pay for Starlink in Ukraine for 183 years) and otherwise spends money with abandon. What a faker.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 21, 2022, 10:44:12 AMZelenskyy was at Bakhmut recently (his security detail must be top notch!) and now he's in the US to lobby for more aid.
Effective speech, IMHO. "Responsible use" of US arms. I'm sure Biden doesn't want them used to attack inside Russia's real borders.
Quote from: Cassia on December 21, 2022, 08:14:56 PMEffective speech, IMHO. "Responsible use" of US arms. I'm sure Biden doesn't want them used to attack inside Russia's real borders.
If someone's shooting at you from the other side of the street, is it really "escalating" by shooting back? Your property, their property, what do these terms mean in such a situation?
Granted, there are bystanders/civilians, so of course you have to be very, very selective with your shots and not take risky shots at all, even if you have a bead on the guy. The person shooting at you of course has no such restriction and can spray-n-pray all the while.
A very stressful, unfair situation requiring a lot of restraint and self-control. And so far, Ukraine has dealt with it incredibly well. Heroically, even. I can't see a lot of other countries displaying such forbearance. Though it's not an exaggeration to say that Ukraine's future hinges on its ability to cultivate positive relationships with other countries - the diplomatic "war" is just as important as the war on the ground imo.
Mysterious fire on Russia's only aircraft carrier (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-kuznetsov-murkansk-fire-aircraft-carrier-1768956)
While it was docked at the shipyard in Murmansk. Allegedly occured during repair work, just as it was about to leave port. Very inconvenient timing...
Trivia: this ship is the flagship of the Russian navy and was built in Ukraine.
Russian losses officially top 100000!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkimRg7WQAA97If?format=jpg&name=small)
Russian soldier says they're losing more troops to friendly fire than enemy action (https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-soldier-says-theyre-suffering-131532329.html)
Ukrainian steals $25000 (usd equivalent) from russian narcotics market and gives it to Kyiv charity (https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2022/12/22/russian-dark-web-drug-market-hacked-by-ukrainian-bitcoin-donated-to-kyiv-charity/?sh=7c5f47356386)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaYUjRuXwAEwAKV?format=jpg&name=small)
Ukrainian forces strike airfield near Kakhovka (Kherson region), killing up to 150 invaders (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/22/7381967/)
Meet Dmitry Rogozin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Rogozin). He's a "far right" (cryptofascist or openly fascist) Russian politician and thrall to Dictator Putin. He's also the guy who threatened to colony drop the International Space station onto an Allied country's city in response to sanctions (https://time.com/6174331/rogozin-threatens-space-station/). What a POS.
Well, he decided to have a nice quiet birthday dinner in occupied Ukraine. (https://kyivindependent.com/national/ex-roscosmos-head-dmitrii-rogozin-donetsk-proxy-leader-injured-in-possible-targeted-strike) You can easily guess what happened next. He might not have ordered salad, but he definitely got a CAESAR. The artillery. Some people there lost their lives, while he was seriously wounded in the back/buttocks. A DPR/Vichy official was also injured. Sadly, it looks like they'll live, but Russian medicine being what it is, ya never know.
Quote"It was a business meeting with a close circle of associates after returning from one of the volunteer units," he posted on social media on Thursday. "We've been staying in this hotel all these months and in eight years, the enemy never shelled this place."
"At a golf course, I've been pointing my golf club to the sky for 8 years, and lightning has never struck it before", says man tempting fate. Such are the thinking skills of those who support a dictator's mad war of aggression that has so far claimed over 100,000 Russian lives pointlessly.
Afghanistan was a long drawn out affair that went nowhere and was a total waste of time, money, and manpower for Russia. I didn't follow it as closely as this time. My interest was little more than, "There's a war going on over in the Mideast." I wonder if there are significant differences in Russian tactics this time around. What do they have now that they couldn't find then?
For comedy hour, we have Russia complaining that the Zelensky-Biden meeting "ignored Russia's concerns" (https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/russia-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-biden-zelenskyy-ignoring-concerns-3163961) (read: wasn't beholden to genocidal Dictator Putin's opinions)
Excuse me while I play on the world's smallest violin.
Russia says that Ukraine has been substantially demilitarized (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/23/7382050/)
Suffice it to say that Ukraine is probably the most militarized country in Europe right now, but he's gotta lie to that domestic audience which (correctly) suspects that the "special operation" is not succeeding.
(https://i.redd.it/uzm2mplwii7a1.jpg)
Saying the quiet part out loud: far-right pro-dictator faction has no interest in defending Ukraine from Russian aggression.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 23, 2022, 10:11:00 AM(https://i.redd.it/uzm2mplwii7a1.jpg)
Saying the quiet part out loud: far-right pro-dictator faction has no interest in defending Ukraine from Russian aggression.
I don't think this guy fully thought out that comment before he made it
Quote from: SGOS on December 23, 2022, 10:56:26 AMI don't think this guy fully thought out that comment before he made it
Has he ever fully thought out anything?
(https://i.redd.it/zxfp35vr1i7a1.png)
(https://i.redd.it/ohxa27fe4u7a1.jpg)
The US and other Allied countries have significantly boosted munitions production for Ukraine and simultaneously significantly sanctioned Russia. In a tug-of-war of industrial might, it's no contest.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 24, 2022, 06:40:42 AM(https://i.redd.it/ohxa27fe4u7a1.jpg)
The US and other Allied countries have significantly boosted munitions production for Ukraine and simultaneously significantly sanctioned Russia. In a tug-of-war of industrial might, it's no contest.
Odds are that a percentage of the US munitions delivered to Ukraine would have been eventually obsoleted and scrapped anyhow. There will be new arms contracts for sure, but having the latest stuff has benefits for US soldier's lives, should they need to go into a fight.
Speaking of new stuff, where are the Russian Armata tanks I kept reading about in my news feed? Looks like another oligarch need to have an accident.
The engine in the Amata is apparently complete garbage, amongst other issues.
That said - the platform is actually really damn smart in terms of money saving potential. Russia just chose to save... a little too much money in making them.
I would love to see America learn from it though - to be able to make 3 different combat role vehicles (main combat tank, APC and something else) using the same frame and many of the same mechanical parts has massive potential to both make the production process cheaper and far more streamlined.
The Russia desire to cheap out did breed useful innovation; we could learn from that to hopefully cut our military spending down as well... just do it right this time. In concept though, it's very Henry Ford assembly line.
"Cut our military spending down"? Yeah...sure...
This and other wars have no other purpose than to make it possible for arms dealers to continue to make more and more money.
Quote from: Unbeliever on December 24, 2022, 08:30:05 PM"Cut our military spending down"? Yeah...sure...
This and other wars have no other purpose than to make it possible for arms dealers to continue to make more and more money.
What I optimistically want/what is logical for our government to do and what they actually do often seems to be the exact opposite.
It feels like a curse at this point.
Don't celebrate yet, but it appears that Russia is slowly losing the battle of Bakhmut (https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1606982873445457921)
More Wagnerites surrender (https://en.socportal.info/en/news/voennosluzhashchim-vsu-sdalas-gruppa-iz-chvk-vagner/)
Mysterious explosions in Kursk (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/explosions-reported-in-kursk-russia/)
Preliminary reports that the Ukrainians are assaulting Kreminna and making significant gains (https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1607151719271772160?s=20&t=avl44XBnGAC2xT-KRdYYHQ)
Blast at Engels airbase in Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blasts-reported-russias-engels-air-base-online-media-2022-12-26/)...again
Head of Russian shipyard dies mysteriously after 11 years on the job (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/head-major-russian-shipyard-dies-suddenly-no-cause-given-2022-12-24/)
No cause of death given.
Well, it must have been either suicide or accident, right?
The Engels base attack may have been more severe than Russia has been letting on (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1607672850839642112)
Instead of 3 deaths, it's looking more like 17 deaths, 26 wounded, 5 damaged bombers, and a control tower destroyed.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fk7Cnw2X0AMDxyc?format=jpg&name=small)
Ukraine is asking for aggressor state currently conducting genocide Russia to be thrown out of the UN. Or at least, its influence there to lessen. We'll see what happens.
Quote from: Unbeliever on December 26, 2022, 02:39:18 PMWell, it must have been either suicide or accident, right?
Speak of the devil... (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/russian-meat-magnate-who-criticised-putin-s-war-dies-after-hotel-fall-20221227-p5c8zs.html)
"A Russian sausage magnate who briefly criticised Russia's invasion of Ukraine has died after falling from the third-floor window of a luxury hotel in India."
Well, isn't that special... 🙈🙉🙊
Russia Losing Thousands of Soldiers As Bakhmut Plan Collapses (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-losing-thousands-soldiers-bakhmut-plan-collapses-ukraine-1769751)
Quote"It is no longer even a strategic military plan, although there is such a thing, but a rather symbolic matter — which the Kremlin regime loves very much," Haidai said.
QuoteHe also alleged that Chechen forces, led by Ramzan Kadyrov, and the mercenary Wagner Group helmed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, want to prove themselves to Putin — who Haidai referred to as "the bunker grandpa."
Fierce battles near Kreminna (https://twitter.com/kyivpost/status/1607686505593438211?s=46&t=eFSyK-v2K5VZwDNXEMxs5A)
If Russia loses, Ukrainian forces could liberate much of Luhansk.
Ukraine says Russian advance towards Bakhmut halted (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/6158)
Russians allegedly experiencing shell shortages, complicating future advances.
QuoteUkrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar said in widely-reported television comments that the Russian military has massed "its greatest concentration of force" across the entire front to support attempts to capture Bakhmut, but that tough Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) defenses in and around the city in Donbas have halted Kremlin attacks completely.
"Our fighters are inflicting heavy casualties on the enemy and he cannot advance further...now the enemy is attempting to encircle the city, but that also is not working out for him," Malyar said.
QuoteTwo Wagner artillery gunners on Monday in an unprecedented public video said Russian attacks against Bakhmut were getting nowhere and assault groups were being cut to pieces, and blamed the Russian army's top brass for failing to supply Wagner's gun crews sufficient shells to shoot at the Ukrainians.
Even maintaining current positions requires expending a significant amount of munitions on both sides. Whichever side faulters first in munitions supply is at a serious tactical disadvantage. One country is supplied by many other countries, several with deep pockets and huge industrial capability. The other is supplied by Belarus, Iran, and possibly North Korea. Who will break first?
What happens when you put soldiers in a tank without training (https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1608199414967066624)
FFS, I drove better in World of Tanks. :P
Also, note that the barrel, which was foolishly put to the side during transport against all common sense, is definitely bent. This means that the main armament of the tank is almost certainly useless through what can be generously described as an unforced error and less generously called vodka-fueled reckless driving. A multimillion dollar platform rendered almost completely useless without enemy action. Shameful.
(https://external-preview.redd.it/MlhaljsVOOp-kj5-pKD8MrMvW2_fp_iqvH0KbtxopIk.png?width=640&crop=smart&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3f8613b46f84474770a7782292b9e9c3e106c51d)
High-ranking Russian officer dies suddenly. Mysterious circumstances. (https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/12/27/general-alexei-maslov-second-sudden-death-of-high-ranking-russian-military-officers-in-48-hours/)
Three Wagnerites arrested on suspicion of massacring an entire family of 8 people, including kids (https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/12/27/three-wagner-pmc-mercenaries-arrested-suspicion-executing-family-eight-ukraines-makiivka/)
I have absolutely zero problem with these genocidal monsters getting blown up on the frontlines. Taking them in alive is going above and beyond and demonstrates a lot more compassion than is expected of people.
Ukrainian forces have been busy: 790 Russian KIA today. Total now >104500
In Russia, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a s-300 (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/in-the-bryansk-region-of-the-russian-federation-the-s-300-missile-launcher-was-destroyed-russian-media/)
An air unit destroyed an antiair unit far from the frontlines, in an area that's supposed to be secure. Shameful!
In the temporarily-occupied Zaporizhzhya region, over 200 invaders deserted (https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1608153619936821254)
Not only will they be out of combat, other invaders searching for them will be as well, at least temporarily.
According to the Ukrainians (https://odessa-journal.com/alexander-kovalenko-about-the-situation-on-the-kinburn-spit/), the Russian occupiers on the Kinburn Spit (pictured below) are under intense bombardment and may be forced to withdraw.
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/tfoxfYB7oEnfEH2eiU_75Q--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQ4MDtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/business_insider_articles_888/4aba2ca89d8c1dfda171ace4931f0fe0)
This would deny Russia a frequently-used launch site for its missiles and may pave the way for a continuation of the Kherson counteroffensive to not only liberate the rest of the Kherson region, but also Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia region.
QuoteIf a 'goodwill gesture' takes place there, then in fact, the Kinburn Spit is such a dagger to the left-bank Kherson region. One way or another, they will be forced to leave the other part of the left-bank Kherson region. Therefore, this is such a suicidal stalemate – they are there, our artillery constantly covers them," the observer continued.
Kovalenko believes that if the Russians leave the Kinburn Spit, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will immediately appear there. After that, the cascade defense of the Russian occupation troops will begin to collapse already on the left bank of the Kherson region.
"They understand it, but they can't do anything about it," the expert summed up.
Another busy day in Ukraine: 690 Russian kia
Russia has largely abandoned Engels airbase (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-significantly-reduces-the-presence-of-strategic-aviation-on-the-engels-airbase/) after devastating drone strike and possible friendly fire incident
QuoteFrom the image of the airbase we can conclude that some of these aircraft are inoperational. Observers base such conclusions on the fact that some bombers are not even cleared of snow, and there is uncleared snow around them.
This, according to observers, may indicate the inoperability of bombers or their technical malfunction, which makes it impossible to use them for missile attacks on Ukraine. At the same time, it is noticeable that five turboprop strategic bomber-missile carriers are Tu-95MS, which are regularly cleared of snow cover and stand on cleared platforms and steering paths.
Maybe they're just trying an advanced camouflage technique?
Armed Forces of Ukraine "congratulated" Putin's soldiers on holidays: 11 officers and brigade commander killed (https://www-dialog-ua.translate.goog/war/265216_1672430762?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
QuoteAs previously reported, Putin's soldiers are fighting heroically with their own colleagues. A video appeared on the Web, where the invaders boasted of their own tank, which they "knocked out". And in Kherson, during the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the invaders staged a shootout and suffered losses. Only special forces could "calm down" the frightened invaders.
I love their caustic mockery. Probably works even better in the original Ukrainian, so some of these puns are going over my head.
Putin launched another missile attack (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/31/russia-fighting-to-protect-motherland-vladimir-putin-claims), this time targeting residential areas instead of critical infrastructure like power substations. More than half of them were shot down, but some got through and did some damage.
But *some* damage seems like a paltry payout for such an attack. Missiles ain't cheap (every missile volley costs somewhere in the hundreds of millions of dollars (https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/forbes-estimates-russias-dec-5-missile-strikes-cost-400-500-million)) and it seems strange for a country with a very tenuous grip on the frontlines and not a huge amount of missiles left (hence buying them from Iran) to waste them on non-military targets. That was after all, how the Nazis did things and we all know how that went.
The Kremlin says that this is a deliberate tactic to get Kyiv to offer peace negotiations, negotiations that Putin no doubt hopes will let him abscond with Ukrainian land, thereby rewarding Russian aggression and ensuring that such attacks continue. Apparently, some alleged Westerners are in line with the Kremlin's thinking on this matter, which is shameful and is yet another thing with parallels in WWII.
Anyone can tell that Putin has a lack of proper military training/experience because his playbook is more mafia than military, more terrorist than soldier, more Axis of Evil (or just plain Axis) than legitimate empire. Very long tables, fear-filled meetings, and long and sleepless nights in the bunker. The end result of such folly is very predictable.
New Year's celebrations in Kyiv and Moscow:
(https://preview.redd.it/kp6e7pcl6b9a1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=c9b51b54a440a0229aafc4fa333bc538c4e43e59)
(https://preview.redd.it/7mvtvmgl6b9a1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=60d657ad19378f2b9ad5a2a1fe085965d5ea45bc)
Russians lose 760 troops today
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMcyV4gWQBoUUrh?format=jpg&name=small)
As rare a black scottish cyclops, we have everyone's favorite Aussie military-industrial-complex powerpoint presenter, Perun!
One part that particularly stuck out to me was the Russians having to ease up on artillery due to shortages, even going so far as to use tanks as artillery.
Now, I'm not a military expert, but I'm pretty sure using tanks as improvised artillery is a very inefficient and largely ineffective use for tanks.
No wonder the latest kill counts have been so high - Ukrainian forces flattened a Russian base at Makiivka with HIMARS, causing 100+ casualties (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1609662013671604225?s=20)
Fun fact: the Russian soldiers were bunched together and lacked any sort of bunkers (yes, 10 months into war and bunkers are still a novel idea). The Russians lamented the fact that their comrades were such easy targets and blame their criminally inept commanders first and foremost.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlatCdvXoAA5Usb?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlatC6AXoAE1DL5?format=jpg&name=small)
QQ, N00BS
720+ invader KIA today. Ukraine is a deathtrap for mobiks.
To put these sorts of figures in perspective, a full-strength Russian battalion is around 700-800 troops. Even before the war, Russia had been fielding undermanned battalions, around 2/3 or 3/4 of full strength. Early on in the war, before HIMARS, Ukrainian attrition had reduced them to as low as half full strength or even less in some cases, in the 300s or even 200s in extreme cases.
Ukraine has recently been consistently wiping out 700+ troops EVERY. SINGLE. DAY.
That's definitely one, maybe two whole battalions. And militaries are a lot like businesses in that they can handle losing a couple of people and still get their work done. But you lose half your staff and productivity goes down dramatically. 50% losses doesn't leave you with a 50% effective workforce - there are some positions that the remainder don't know how to fill, morale problems further erode the workforce, etc.
Not even a year into it, some units have already been almost completely destroyed. And raising conscripts doesn't undo that. When you raise conscripts to reinforce a nearly destroyed battalion, you don't get a replenished battalion, you get a nearly destroyed battalion with a lot of conscripts. It's like adding water to beer, you don't end up with more beer. :P
The point is, Russia is hemorrhaging its best and most capable soldiers in Ukraine and if these losses continue, Russian military capabilities will be dramatically reduced.
Russia will, of course, retaliate by killing some retired Ukrainians as they sleep in Kyiv, and maybe taking out a few schools.
LOL @ the HIMARS decked out in lights. It looks like something out of Tron. And the Russians have yet to destroy a single one. Pathetic.
(https://i.redd.it/5k9hsh155q9a1.png)
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 02, 2023, 10:51:07 PM(https://i.redd.it/5k9hsh155q9a1.png)
It must be the result of Putin-era brain drain. The Soviets were actually way more clever than "democratic Russia" is, LOL. Or maybe it was because the Soviet Union included Ukraine, etc.
Quote from: Cassia on January 02, 2023, 11:25:03 PMIt must be the result of Putin-era brain drain. The Soviets were actually way more clever than "democratic Russia" is, LOL. Or maybe it was because the Soviet Union included Ukraine, etc.
Imho, it was Ukraine. Ukrainian innovation, Russian stagnation.
Also, there appears to be a huge demographic gap between the two countries, at least in leadership - most Russian officials are downright geriatric (in Putin's case, that description is literally true) compared to their fresh-faced Ukrainian counterparts.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 03, 2023, 12:53:01 AMImho, it was Ukraine. Ukrainian innovation, Russian stagnation.
Also, there appears to be a huge demographic gap between the two countries, at least in leadership - most Russian officials are downright geriatric (in Putin's case, that description is literally true) compared to their fresh-faced Ukrainian counterparts.
The only "powerful" young men in Russia are the entitled brats of those geriatrics - without getting into specifics, an acquaintance of mine shared some
interesting stories of one of these kids that they knew each other through work.
Exactly what you would expect of any young man raised by a emotionally - if not also physically - abusive crime lord as a father and god only knows what of a mother in a culture that promotes idiocy, illiteracy, deviancy and all sorts of -cys you can come up with - he was a "cool dude" until he wasn't, and when he was he a psycho.
Bellow them... I don't know enough about the Russian underworld to say, but I cant say I've been impressed by what I've seen. The Sicilians knew politics, how to run a criminal underworld - they ran an entire country and brushed elbows with Senators and mayors, even Presidents and Prime Ministers. Helping maintain peace amongst the poor was in their best interest - their was no power to stop them; they were the biggest power shy of a mass uprising.
The Russian mafia only knows how to enforce for the state - they ultimately have someone holding their leashes. So they are barbaric - "what do I give shit about who I hurt? My boss can fuck me up, so what can he do to these yokel peasant fucks? Flash my ak-fucking-47 in your face you ***** in my BMW bitch! He didn't pay protection - send the police to go break his knees, why would we get our hands messy? We are out here making fucking bank man!"
It's closer to the cartels and street gangs than a "mafia", and while their parents are smart enough to understand that business suits and polite manners will get you far further in the world of power than curses and public displays of being under the influence or beating people on camera will only make you a small fish in the pond... do you think this next generation is smart enough to understand this? The Sicilianos didn't, will the Muskovites make the same mistake?
The old guard of Russia is growing old - and this young generation is unfit to lead. One way or another, Russia is thoroughly fucked - and they truly cannot blame anyone but themselves, because holy shit did they make some dumb fucking choices along the way. And while America has done a lot of the same stupid shit, man... even we gotta sit back and look in awe.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 03, 2023, 01:16:37 AMThe old guard of Russia is growing old - and this young generation is unfit to lead. One way or another, Russia is thoroughly fucked - and they truly cannot blame anyone but themselves, because holy shit did they make some dumb fucking choices along the way. And while America has done a lot of the same stupid shit, man... even we gotta sit back and look in awe.
Yeah, Russia under Putin has been acting with huge and often faulty assumptions (we'll be welcomed as liberators, the US/EU won't sanction us and if they do they will stop if we cut off the gas, etc) and only in terms of short-term goals (<10 years in the future) with little thought for anything long-term. Frozen conflicts in their sphere of influence, brain drain, demographic issues, etc.
China is much more dangerous because it's more aware of reality and much better at long-term planning.
(https://i.redd.it/b93tiszlht9a1.jpg)
Awful that Ukraine has suffered heavy losses as well, but it looks like Bakhmut will continue to hold.
Meanwhile, the Russian kia count is 750, yet another busy day for the Ukrainians. Russia simply can't continue this pace - it'll break and break hard.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 03, 2023, 09:03:56 AMMeanwhile, the Russian kia count is 750, yet another busy day for the Ukrainians. Russia simply can't continue this pace - it'll break and break hard.
Except they are mostly ethnic minorities that are left to the sunflowers and the pureblood Russians might even be pleased to a certain extent. Given Europe's relatively anemic contributions (except for states like Latvia, Estonia and Poland that are next in line), this war could ultimately depend on continued US support and election outcomes. Besides the fossil fuel, Germany may have historical reasons for not going all in.
Is it just me? I have not been a fan of India's cozy-up with Putin over the years. This may be related to India's Muslim neighbor than anything.
(https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/27331.jpeg)
(https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/27278.jpeg)
Here is some more recent data (https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts)
Estonia is really pulling its weight.
Kreminna-Svatove highway under fire control of Armed Forces of Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/3/7383450/)
This means that the Russians cannot use that highway anymore, further complicating Russian logistics.
If that sort of thing sounds familiar, it's because it has happened several times before and usually before Russians cede more ground.
Ukrainians are abuzz about the Jan 1st elimination of hundreds of mobiks in one HIMARS volley (https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1610276330784055298), which flattened their base and resulted in the survivors going on the internet to beg for donations to replace literally everything, claiming that all they have left is the clothes on their backs. (Sounds kinda scammy, tbh)
Since the Russians were holed up in an abandoned technical college and then visited by Saint HIMARS, the Ukrainians are calling it the "Makiivka Graduation party" 🎉 🪦 🌻
Gotta love their sense of humor!
The Russians explain why they cannot take Bakmut (https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1610277981032747009): the Ukrainians have strong defense lines and the Russians lack adequate armored vehicles and equipment
This after they lost >3000 tanks in earlier battles. Coulda come in handy.
Pro-Putin crowds in Russia (the only legal crowds) mourn Russian dead in Jan 1st HIMARS strike (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/03/pro-kremlin-crowds-in-russia-mourn-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-strike-a79867)
(https://preview.redd.it/pucox1t2cgg81.png?auto=webp&s=0b21119ac4ad20de1a55ed0a1d36c88920fb5ba4)
"Shoulda been a better species!" - Morty
(https://i.redd.it/infm087o32aa1.jpg)
Well, it looks like Russia won a great victory today...against high-tech NATO balloons.
What air defense doing? Drugs, apparently.
Next they'll shoot down seagulls and claim that they were strategic bombers.
Another 700+ kia day. Ukrainians are very busy lately.
On December 31st, Ukrainian strikes against Russian positions in Kherson region (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3645566-russians-suffer-significant-losses-in-kherson-region-nearly-500-casualties.html) and generated about 500 casualties - wounded/dead
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 04, 2023, 09:00:52 AMNext they'll shoot down seagulls and claim that they were strategic bombers.
They do poop everywhere.
Looks like France will be first to send tanks to Ukraine (https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-tanks-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy-europe/)
Light tanks*, so don't expect much fireworks. But it's important to break the ice and show that sending tanks to Ukraine isn't an "escalation" but a substantial step forward in bringing the war to an end and saving civilian lives. Other Allied countries will take notes and are much more likely to pitch in after seeing others pitch in, just like they have with manpads and armored vehicles and artillery and antiair.
* the wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMX-10_RC) has them down as tank destroyers and especially useful for reconnaisance in dangerous environments (though it goes without saying that tanks tend to operate in dangerous environments) and fire support. Useful, but not exactly the main battle tank role that most people tend to expect from the word tank. Hopefully, another country *coughGermanycough* will pitch in with a bigger brother.
Seems good for the type of warfare they are fighting at the moment, though what they are fighting atm and what they will be fighting tomorrow can always change. The weather has not been on Ukraine's side these last few weeks - Saturday is looking "good" though - high of 14 in Bakhmut, hopefully freeze some of the terrain.
They have improved mobility over rough terrain like say, mud and snow. That will certainly come in handy. It's also somewhat amphibious, so it can ford small bodies of water, several of which exist near the current frontlines, so that might be a nice surprise for the Russians.
And they're quite fast (up to 85 km/h on roads, 40 km/h offroad) which lends itself to the high-mobility offensives Ukraine has been launching.
It can stop and fire very quickly and with high accuracy on that first shot (http://www.military-today.com/artillery/amx_10_rc.htm) - perfect for shoot-and-scoot or ambush tactics. It can also take advantage of uneven terrain by perching on a hill or in a depression and tilting its suspension to angle the barrel to make otherwise difficult shots.
But the gun isn't stabilized and it can't accurately fire on the move, so I hope the Ukrainians manning them are a one-shot-one-kill sort of people.
I'm curious about the ammo, which as far as I know, is 105mm caliber, but apparently not the same as the 105mm NATO standard ones. So I wonder if ammo reserves will be an issue.
When I say it can tilt its suspension, this is what I'm talking about:
I gotta say, I've never seen a tank "kneel" before. Looks quite strange, but hopefully will have good practical purpose.
810 kia today. Almost up to 110k Russian deaths.
The US might send Bradleys to Ukraine (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/04/ukraine-bradley-fighting-vehicle/)
I don't like reporting on maybes, but I feel like it's important to know how Ukraine's pleas for tanks are shaking out. I hope to have something more substantial to report when the US's next round of military aid is announced next week.
Ukrainians destroy two russian ammo dumps near Bakhmut (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3646442-ukrainian-forces-destroy-two-enemy-ammunition-depots-in-bakhmut-area.html)
Russia is really struggling for every inch there and running out of just about everything. So anything that hurts their logistics there has a disproportionate effect on their operations.
(https://i.redd.it/ed8ovtio88aa1.jpg)
Hmmm... 🤔
US officially will send 50 Bradleys to Ukraine! (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/05/biden-ukraine-bradley-vehicles-tanks-00076549)
How do Bradley IFVs fare against T-72s? Quite well actually, as the Iraqis found out. Especially with those TOW missiles we already sent.
And they're exactly what Ukraine needs right now (https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/12/30/americas-tough-m2m3-mini-tanks-are-perfect-for-ukraine-and-nato/?sh=5c7cd44f1996). Unfortunately, it'll take a couple of months to fully train up the Ukrainians, which is why it's better to pull that trigger sooner rather than later. We have something like 6000 of them stockpiled, so it's not like we're going to miss them. We won't miss a few Abrams if they happen to get "misplaced" in Poland, either. *wink wink*
Germany will send Marder IFVs, which I know a lot less about so I can't comment on that, but they seem like they're great, too.
I remember early in the war seeing the Ukrainians do some massive damage to invaders with domestic/Soviet-era IFVs - slightly excited to see what they can do with something up to NATO quality standards and not Soviet Union standards.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 05, 2023, 08:03:53 PMI remember early in the war seeing the Ukrainians do some massive damage to invaders with domestic/Soviet-era IFVs - slightly excited to see what they can do with something up to NATO quality standards and not Soviet Union standards.
It also would be nice to see the Ukrainians rely on equipment using western ammo rather than soviet ammo, because there's not a lot of soviet ammo left, and of course russia has a lot of what's left. Switching over to NATO standard would make keeping the guns fed a lot easier.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 05, 2023, 06:54:36 PMUS officially will send 50 Bradleys to Ukraine! (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/05/biden-ukraine-bradley-vehicles-tanks-00076549)
How do Bradley IFVs fare against T-72s? Quite well actually, as the Iraqis found out. Especially with those TOW missiles we already sent.
Why didn't those 8, T-72s shoot the Bradley's while they were reloading the TOW missiles?
Quote from: Cassia on January 05, 2023, 09:34:13 PMWhy didn't those 8, T-72s shoot the Bradley's while they were reloading the TOW missiles?
Excellent question (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_73_Easting). All I can tell you is that one Bradley was indeed lost to enemy fire.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/71/TF-1-4173Easting.jpg/640px-TF-1-4173Easting.jpg)
Judging from the photo, I'd assume a very high difficulty in establishing a target solution.
(https://preview.redd.it/tvar2yl00aaa1.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=d1d7d0819f14df172e17fdb48abef4cb44e9d527)
HIMARS and new friends!
Left to right: French AMX-10 RC light tank, German Marder IFV, US Bradley IFV, US HIMARS.
(https://i.redd.it/uzxjz1c0ifaa1.jpg)
Inspiring the troops, lol
Poland is considering giving Ukraine its Leopard tanks (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-allies-say-armored-vehicles-will-give-ukraines-troops-an-edge-11672958229?mod=world_lead_story)
QuotePoland gave Ukraine more than 240 modernized Soviet-type tanks early in the war. Now, Poland is considering a request from Ukraine to donate its German-made Leopard main battle tanks, a senior Polish diplomat said.
QuotePoland has more than 240 Leopard tanks, enough for two tank brigades, and plans to eventually unload all of them, said Slawomir Debski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, a Warsaw think tank close to the Polish government. The pace at which it could give those to Ukraine depends on how quickly Poland receives replacement tanks it has ordered from manufacturers in South Korea and the U.S., he said. Berlin would also need to approve.
"It's a question of not if, but when," said Mr. Debski, adding that the Western reluctance to provide tanks was finally diminishing after months of diplomatic pressure. "It's exactly something Poland has argued for, for many months."
Send tanks to
Ukraine Poland ASAP!
(https://i.imgur.com/sPmcYN2l.jpeg)
Btw, the Ukrainians found a way to MacGuyver their Soviet-era BUK anti-air to fire Sea Sparrow anti-air missiles (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-sea-sparrow-missiles-comparisons-air-defense-options-1771994). This significantly improves their ability to keep these anti-air batteries supplied. Sea Sparrow is designed for short/medium-range defense, especially against lowflying missiles (a favorite Russian tactic)
Ukraine's S-300 anti-air is basically overkill against a lot of the stuff Russia has been sending out, so having more versatility is nice. That way, they can save those missiles for serious targets.
Putin's 38 hr ceasefire for the orthodox xmas. What a joke. It's what baby orthodox jesus would have wanted.
Yeah, I wasn't gonna even bring it up as a possibility because I smelled that BS from halfway around the world. Putler is as pious as Trump.
While Russian invaders have stalled around Bakhmut, they have advanced north of Bakhmut, pushing about 10km in just a few days. Definitely a cause for concern and gives Russians the false impression that they have "momentum", that they're winning the war because they're taking land. They need to be bisabused of this delusional thinking.
And yesterday, they were. Ukrainian forces counterattacked and pushed them back (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1611639976722145280?t=nPz0iA9HAeDmoKlVKRIiTA&s=34), partially undoing recent gains.
Hopefully, before long, Ukraine will be launch another sweeping counteroffensive to liberate another large chunk of Ukraine or at least prevent the invaders from taking another km of land.
When it is obvious that Russia is no longer taking territory, then Pro-Putin propagandists cannot claim success convincingly.
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/2w4M2LAcf.BzICojC3b0MA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTM1OQ--/https://media.zenfs.com/en/ukrayinska_pravda_articles_451/46af45a974a26a28c31eefe71379da56)
Near Bakhmut, a Ukrainian sniper team repelled a group of Russians and eliminated their commander (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3648217-border-guards-stop-russias-attack-near-bakhmut-eliminate-commander.html), causing the remainder to flee
(https://i.redd.it/ynzaok3g7daa1.png)
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/027/475/Screen_Shot_2018-10-25_at_11.02.15_AM.jpg)
In naval news (I almost forgot Russia had a navy) two Russian heavy cruisers have been deemed inoperable (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3647091-russian-fleet-loses-another-two-flagships-intelligence-source.html) due to a combination of poor maintenance, sanctions, and overall incompetence.
I encourage everyone to read the full article because the full description of the problem is downright hilarious.
QuoteThe heavy nuclear cruiser Admiral Nakhimov of the Russian Navy's Southern Fleet, which is under repair, will not be put into operation on time. It has been established that of the elements of on-board equipment, only the navigation system operates properly, while none of the other units are ready," the source said.
It is reported that the nuclear reactor powering the ship failed the required tests as its launch was aborted, while the vessel's radiation protection system also turned out to be faulty. It was found that the outdated protection of graphite rods, produced back in 1980, has been damaged by corrosion.
Not great, not terrible, lol.
QuoteAccording to available information, most of the high-quality components are missing due to Russian defense factories being unable to produce them.
Sanctions work!
QuoteIt was decided to tow the ship, but it was found that the survivability standard could not be maintained due to deep corrosion of the decks below the third, outer hull of the vessel, as well as the presence of water in the holds. Accordingly, there is a risk that the ship will capsize to one side or sink during towing, so the process was postponed indefinitely,"
Not to be outdone in idiocy, a Russian official proposed to buy back the unfinished Soviet aircraft carrier cruiser sold by Ukraine to China (https://news.abplive.com/news/world/russians-urge-china-to-return-soviet-aircraft-carrier-liaoning-bought-from-ukraine-1574290) (China later finished it and put it into service, demonstrating that the problems associated with Russian naval vessels is more due to the Russians themselves than any other factor)
China is normally not willing to part with things it has seized (just ask Tibet), so it's unlikely that this Russian official will get his wish.
Also, even if it did happen, his proposal to make it the flagship of the Black Sea fleet (what happened to the old one?) is unworkable due to the obvious fact that Turkey had blocked warships from entering the Black Sea for the duration of the conflict. And even if it somehow were to enter the Black Sea, it would likely perish in a similar manner as its predecessor. So really, this is more of a copium-induced pipe dream than a serious proposal.
The Russians claim they blew up a Ukrainian base at Kramatorsk. And to prove this, they show two holes in the ground in front of an abandoned building. (https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1612100537838891017) :/
So apparently, they launched a strike that missed an empty building and are claiming that as some great victory.
ISW (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-8-2023) also confirms that this Russian claim is bogus:
QuoteThe Russian MoD announced on January 8 that Russian forces conducted a "retaliation operation" against Ukrainian forces for the December 31 strike on Makiivka that killed up to 400 mobilized soldiers due to Russian command failures and poor personnel dispersal practices.[1] The Russian MoD falsely claimed the retaliatory strike targeted several temporary Ukrainian deployment points in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, and killed over 600 Ukrainian personnel.[2] This claim is false — a Finnish reporter visited the site of the strike in Kramatorsk on January 8 and noted that it hit an empty school.[3] Several Russian milbloggers responded negatively to the Russian MoD's claim, pointing out that the Russian MoD frequently presents fraudulent claims and criticizing Russian military leadership for fabricating a story to "retaliate" for the Makiivka strike instead of holding Russian leadership responsible for the losses accountable.
QuoteThe Russian MoD has thus created a negative feedback loop, wherein it attempts to respond to Ukrainian offensive successes with a discrete, retaliatory, offensive action, which then opens the MoD up to continued criticism from discontented Russian milbloggers highlighting their beliefs that the MoD is responding in the wrong manner or to the wrong event. The Russian MoD's response to the Makiivka strike is a clear continuation of this grievance-and-retaliation model that has once again opened Russian military leadership to staunch criticism of their conduct of the war.
If the Russians ever had any credibility they've lost it all by now.
Actually, I don't think they ever did have any.
Russia allegedly hunted down 6 of their own who intended to surrender (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1612160174910832641)
On one hand, this may decrease surrender rates by intimidating soldiers into staying in line.
On the other, this may significantly increase surrender rates since soldiers know that fellow soldiers cannot be trusted and absolutely will shoot them at the drop of a hat. And all things being equal, most people would prefer to be around people who won't shoot them.
UK considering sending its Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine (https://news.sky.com/story/uk-considering-supplying-ukraine-with-challenger-2-tanks-to-fight-russian-forces-12783107)
Finland and Germany are considering sending theirs, and Poland will definitely send theirs if they get replacements.
So this is shaping up quite a race to send Ukraine tanks.
Well, UK and Ukraine start with the same two letters, so it only seems fitting. 😏
Russia has held off from using its most advanced fighters because they're scared they'll be shot down (https://news.yahoo.com/russia-holding-back-using-most-112104959.html?guccounter=1)
Specifically, they're worried about national embarrassment (too late lol), a souring of the export market (anyone wanna buy a ka-52...never mind, it crashed), and a loss of sensitive technology (which reminds me, thanks for all those electronic warfare modules, they made some team in Nevada super happy!)
Russia fears a frozen river crossing, allowing Ukraine to strike almost anywhere along the southern front (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-dnieper-river-ukraine-war-zaporizhzhia-front-line-kherson-1772231)
Tense battles for Solenar (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1612733577372000257) with it seemingly on the verge of being surrounded by invaders from the north, east, and south. Ukrainian reinforcements have stymied the Russian advance for now, but the situation there is very fluid.
Invader KIA numbers are back up to 710 after declining the past couple of days (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/10/7384182/). Racking up those numbers is painful on the Ukrainian side as well, but every destroyed Russian battalion gets Ukraine that much closer to victory.
The Russians also lost a ship/boat today. Don't get your hopes up, it was probably just a dinky boat, but every little bit helps.
Chinese officials say that Russia is likely to lose this war and emerge as a minor power, much weaker economically and diplomatically (https://twitter.com/emeyersson/status/1612712475916632066)
Russian artillery fire is much less frequent (https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/10/politics/russian-artillery-fire-down-75-percent-ukraine/index.html), though the reason for this is unknown. Russian forces have bitterly complained about a shortage of shells, so this is a likely explanation.
Perun talked about this at length, allow me to summarize. It's not a good idea to be trigger-happy with artillery - ammo doesn't grow on trees and every gun can only be fired so many times before it starts to break. At that point, you have two options: repair/replace the worn out parts or continue firing anyway. That second option is not recommended, because it could detonate, killing everyone in the vicinity.
Instead of firing constantly, it is much better to fire artillery sparingly but accurately, inflicting the maximum amount of casualties per shell.
So firing less than the other side is not necessarily a bad thing. We'll see if the Russians took that advice to heart or if the real reason is logistics difficulties.
Canada will be buying a surface-to-air missile system (NASAMS) from the United States to send to Ukraine (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-purchase-missile-system-1.6709115)
Cha-ching!
Ukrainian forces will be trained to use the Patriot missile system at Fort Sill, Oklahoma (https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1612823828471681025)
I'm kinda excited about this on a personal level because I've been to that military base personally and it's a fine training ground.
But the summer heat is unbearable, combined with the fact that it is Oklahoma, which will no doubt highly motivate the Ukrainians to complete their training in record time.
<--- Former Nike Hercules Radar Mechanic who got to see several Pershing II and Patriot launches in the late 70's early 80's and participate in multiple Nike Hercules launches.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 10, 2023, 04:29:44 PMI'm kinda excited about this on a personal level because I've been to that military base personally and it's a fine training ground.
Sill sucks as a Patriot training site because it isn't big enough to live fire a Patriot. The air defense school used to be at Fort Bliss. From there it was just a quick 30 minute trip to McGregor Range where you could actually launch missiles like the Patriot. Shooting them is where the fun is.
I stand correcred.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 10, 2023, 06:47:04 PMI stand correcred.
You're a stand-up guy! Not many people will admit to an error on the internet. I've made many. Hail, fellow well-met!
I understand The Patriot system RADAR tracks both the target and the missile and sends it intercept data to augment the onboard systems. Crazy complicated. As a weather RADAR engineer, we were always getting jammed by false returns and implementing fixes. Even a picket fence could look like a doppler weather return. I bet those missile RADAR systems have sophisticated methods to evade jamming and countermeasures.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 10, 2023, 06:47:04 PMI stand correcred.
Sorry. I didn't mean to sound like an asshole. My comment was supposed to be tongue in cheek.
I spent a few days at Sill back around 2010 or so trying to figure out what was wrong with the sensors on a new small arms range they were having built. They were doing a lot of live firing of both conventional artillery and MLRS (possibly HIMARS). The conventional artillery was impacting surprisingly close to us. 1 to 2 seconds between impact and boom. The MLRS was firing from slightly further away 2-3 seconds from launch to the sound getting to us. I'm not sure where it was coming down. I was really surprised how close we were to the impact zone in particular. In any case everything was really loud. Very impressive. The people living in Lawton probably hate it...
You're fine. I was thinking in terms of infrantry housing/training, I didn't know it was inadequate for missile defence testing.
Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-plans-give-ukraine-leopard-tanks-part-coalition-2023-01-11/)
Mmmm...those will pair so well with the Marders and Bradleys. And AMX-10 for fire support / recon. All backed up by Krabs and CAESAR and HIMARS! What a team!
Russia lost another 500 soldiers and 10 tanks yesterday (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/11/7384343/)
Quote from: Cassia on January 10, 2023, 09:54:42 PMI understand The Patriot system RADAR tracks both the target and the missile and sends it intercept data to augment the onboard systems. Crazy complicated. As a weather RADAR engineer, we were always getting jammed by false returns and implementing fixes. Even a picket fence could look like a doppler weather return. I bet those missile RADAR systems have sophisticated methods to evade jamming and countermeasures.
First a bit of history. I completed my Nike Hercules Training in 1980. Nike was already being phased out at that time so I was offered the chance to go straight from Nike training in Patriot training. I declined because 1) I had just finished 60 straight weeks of training and was ready to go to work. 2) As a junior enlisted soldier I was unlikely to get to work on a Patriot system any time soon. Operations and maintenance would mostly be performed by E-6 or E-7 so I would probably be spending most of my time standing inspections and marching in parades. 3) There were not enough Patriot systems available yet to train everyone so even the E6's and E-7's in the training battalions were spending most of their time standing inspections and marching in parades. My knowledge of Patriot is very limited.
Nike systems were based on technology from the 40's-60's so it is old. Older than I am and 100% analog. The computer that plotted intercepts and generated guidance data (http://www.ed-thelen.org/computer.html#About) for the missile used tube driven op amps to add or subtract variables, determine rate of change, and divide a variable by a constant. It used mechanical motor driven potentiometers to multiply or divide a variable by a variable or store a variable for a long time. By the end of 83 I had moved from Nike to a SATCOM MOS so it has been almost 40 years since I worked on a RADAR period. I don't remember a lot about what I knew then but here is a snippet.
Nike batteries used 4 to 5 RADARS. All batteries had at least 4 RADARS. The Low Power Acquisition RADAR (LOPAR), the Target Tracking RADAR (TTR), the Target Ranging RADAR (TRR), and the Missile Tracking RADAR (MTR). Some batteries were also equipped with a second acquisition RADAR the High Power Acquisition RADAR (HIPAR). The HIPAR was a later edition to the system and was very similar to the RADAR used in early AWACS planes.
I am sure I am missing something, but from what I remember our main tools for Electronic Counter Counter Measures (ECCM) were Dickie-Fix receivers, manually changing frequencies, and the HIPAR had an automatic frequency hopping mode. Dickie-Fix receivers basically work by comparing incoming signals to a know reference and canceling signals that don't match. Changing frequencies is just that. Moving from a frequency that is being jammed to one that isn't being jammed.
Ground clutter was dealt with on the display side of the system with a system that works a lot like noise cancelling headphones. The incoming signal is split. One part is inverted 180 degrees then sent through a delay circuit that would delay it one pulse repetition. The signals were then combined again and anything that had not moved since the last signal would cancel itself out.
(https://preview.redd.it/aw1fxhfhc0aa1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=227db733099000106b64d75807ee350eece1fb82)
Dictator's cook humiliated after bragging about victory (https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-chef-yevgeny-prigozhin-humiliated-after-bragging-of-soledar-wagner-victory?ref=wrap)
Mr Prigozhin's quasi-military group of convicts posted a photo allegedly from Soledar's salt mines and typed that they had captured all of Soledar.
Not only have they not captured all of Soledar, the picture isn't even from Soledar, as the Russian military rightfully pointed out. Russia's military might not have the best equipment or armor or air defense or medicine or food or even a pot to piss in, but they do have their wits about them - especially when they surrender.
QuoteRussia's Defense Ministry shot down Prigozhin's boast that his own men had single-handedly brought Putin a win, instead confirming Ukraine's announcement that fighting was still underway in the town.
Moreover, defense officials suggested Russian airborne units and assault teams are leading the charge. The Defense Ministry made no mention of Wagner whatsoever.
The rebuff comes as praise for Prigozhin's outfit hit a fever pitch among pro-Kremlin figures, and the notorious mercenary group threatened to outshine Putin's regular soldiers on the battlefield.
QuoteDespite Prigozhin butting heads with top defense officials and government officials, the Kremlin has largely allowed him to do as he pleases—but they seem to have fired their first warning shot this week in a sign of things to come.
Putin's appointment on Tuesday of a controversial colonel-general as the new ground forces chief was done "as a snub to Prigozhin," a source close to Russia's General Staff told the outlet iStories.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on January 11, 2023, 01:01:30 PMI am sure I am missing something, but from what I remember our main tools for Electronic Counter Counter Measures (ECCM) were Dickie-Fix receivers, manually changing frequencies, and the HIPAR had an automatic frequency hopping mode. Dickie-Fix receivers basically work by comparing incoming signals to a know reference and canceling signals that don't match. Changing frequencies is just that. Moving from a frequency that is being jammed to one that isn't being jammed.
Ground clutter was dealt with on the display side of the system with a system that works a lot like noise cancelling headphones. The incoming signal is split. One part is inverted 180 degrees then sent through a delay circuit that would delay it one pulse repetition. The signals were then combined again and anything that had not moved since the last signal would cancel itself out.
Frequency hopping you say? Thanks Hedy Lamarr !
(https://media.hswstatic.com/eyJidWNrZXQiOiJjb250ZW50Lmhzd3N0YXRpYy5jb20iLCJrZXkiOiJnaWZcL0hlZHktTGFtYXJyLmpwZyIsImVkaXRzIjp7InJlc2l6ZSI6eyJ3aWR0aCI6ODI4fX19)
https://science.howstuffworks.com/innovation/famous-inventors/hedy-lamarr.htm (https://science.howstuffworks.com/innovation/famous-inventors/hedy-lamarr.htm)
Quote from: Cassia on January 11, 2023, 10:20:34 PMFrequency hopping you say? Thanks Hedy Lamarr !
I knew about Hedy. Unfortunately for her no one used the tech she thought of first until after her patents had expired so she never made any money from it.
Starting in the 60s super duper secret squirrel comms systems were using spread spectrum for both ECCM and to keep signals hidden. 802.11 and CDMA both use spread spectrum techniques so today it is literally everywhere.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on January 12, 2023, 07:51:28 AMI knew about Hedy. Unfortunately for her no one used the tech she thought of first until after her patents had expired so she never made any money from it.
Starting in the 60s super duper secret squirrel comms systems were using spread spectrum for both ECCM and to keep signals hidden. 802.11 and CDMA both use spread spectrum techniques so today it is literally everywhere.
I designed a microprocessor card for a commercial aviation transponder. I believe miliary RADARs have "ID Friend or Foe" equipment that interrogates transponders. They use a transmitted random delay between interrogations and the reply to sync-up and avoid being faked out by the bad guys. It's like an electronic "Spy vs Spy" going on all the time. I have read horror stories about the reliability and design of Russian IFF equipment. Makes sense in light of this war.
(https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/2009-8-5-Spy_vs_Spy_9432.jpg)
Russia sure loves to repeat mistakes - stepping on the same rake twice, as the Ukrainians say.
They massed troops at Solenar and sure enough, a Ukrainian rocket wiped them out - killing over 100 in a single strike. (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1613427713762811906?t=jnY3XB5Z6P9fygA14Ivupg&s=34)
(There's a marked increase in copium in the twitter comments - pathological skepticism/denialism, the automatic assumption that because it's coming from a Ukrainian source that it didn't happen or the numbers are severely inflated, one comment even promotes the false russian claim of wiping out 600 Ukrainians in a "revenge strike" that was independently confirmed to have hit near an abandoned building, etc.
It appears that emerald mine guy's lack of policing Twitter, undoing attempts to keep Twitter from becoming a safe haven for trolls/extremists, is bearing fruit)
While I'm on the subject of news trustworthiness, I'll just tell you guys that I personally try to give you guys timely and objectively true information (though obviously I editorialize - I have a pretty clear position which I don't try to hide)
Ukraine has a pretty clear position as well, and although details get kinda murky in war and there's a lot of guesswork involved, there isn't evidence of outright deception or inflated numbers from official Ukrainian sources. When they say they captured Izyum, they actually captured Izyum. When they say they took Kherson, President Zelenskyy was there personally. When they claimed huge Russian losses (10k at the time), most of the world was unprepared to accept it and preferred the default assumption that numbers are inflated on both sides. Well, Russia actually leaked a document (https://www.rferl.org/a/komsomolskaya-pravda-soldier-deaths/31764466.html) showing guess what - about 10k combat losses - precisely what Ukraine was claiming. Various news organizations and Oryx work to independently substantiate Ukrainian claims, and by and large, they do. You can go down the list, pick a battle or a missile attack or a Bucha-style war crime, and the Ukrainians are shown to be telling the truth.
And it makes sense why the Ukrainians would be highly motivated to tell the truth - they rely heavily on foreign support, so maintaining trust with people halfway around the world is literally a matter of life and death for them. So they can't risk harming this relationship with falsehoods.
That said, there has been some wild stuff circulating around that isn't true, mostly from 3rd parties. Ghost of Kyiv, Arma 3 footage purporting to be an airstrike on a Russian convoy (https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-arma-3-ukraine/fact-check-a-clip-shows-footage-from-arma-3-video-game-not-authentic-footage-of-a-ukrainian-strike-on-russian-tanks-idUSL1N31J1L5), and mistaken reports that the Russian cruiser Admiral Makarov was struck by Ukrainian missiles and was on fire (https://www.jpost.com/international/article-706036) (yours truly made an oopsie in passing along such mistaken reporting before it was corrected)
Meanwhile on the Russian side, which already has a bad history of false reporting, has gone into overdrive. Russian official death counts have consistently been highly deflated and Ukrainian losses highly inflated. They claimed to have destroyed more Bayraktars than Ukraine had. They claimed to have destroyed a bunch of HIMARS (amusingly, even one impossibly perched in the second story of a building) yet the US has yet to claim the loss of even a single HIMARS vehicle. They have vacillated between denying various massacres ever happened to claiming that they were justified. They famously claimed that the Moskva was still afloat but damaged - but not through enemy action - before it was sunk by "rough seas" which suspiciously did not exist elsewhere in the Black Sea. They claimed that all hands were evacuated and safe, but some Russian families raised hell about their missing sons. Russia claimed that the HIMARS strike that hit Russian troops at Makiivka only killed 63 (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/2/russia-says-63-troops-killed-in-ukrainian-attack-on-makiivka), yet curiously, a lot more than 63 troops were mourned at funerals in Russia. Russia has put out pixelated video game footage from the 90s purporting to be real footage of a HIMARS, lol. There's a laundry list of lies, damned lies, and statistics. (https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/issues_development-enjeux_developpement/response_conflict-reponse_conflits/crisis-crises/ukraine-fact-fait.aspx?lang=eng) I could go on and on, but I won't bore everyone.
So when Ukraine says one thing, and Russia says another, I know which one is much, much closer to the truth.
Fierce battles rage in Soledar, but Ukraine is still holding onto it and even launching counterattacks in some places (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-1-12-23/h_47c6f959b03b6327593850aa4e584698)
Quote"After several days of pulling back, we've even made a small advance," Ukraine's 46th Airmobile Brigade said on Telegram. "The railway station is ours. The mine is ours. We are waiting for support. Soledar is Ukraine."
Russia claims it has destroyed some Bradleys, even though they aren't in Ukraine yet (https://twitter.com/Htx_fella_osint/status/1613619531724759041)
Just fyi for Russia: we don't deploy this stuff a week after announcing it, we have to train the Ukrainians first, and that takes a few weeks to a couple of months.
So wait a couple months, then claim you blew it up, otherwise it has as much credibility as blowing up the Batmobile or the Ninja Turtle van.
Daily invader death toll back in the 700s.
It doesn't matter where they are or what they're doing, those sorts of losses will ultimately exhaust them and ensure victory for Ukraine.
It appears that Wagner made a mistake in Soledar (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1613671178563977217.html), they prematurely announced victory there, now they have to fully take it or their boss is a liar.
So now they're throwing everything they have at it, regardless of casualties, and fighting a lot of tactically unwise battles in the process. Ukraine is taking advantage of such desperation and fighting Wagnerites in whatever favorable matchups they can find. Things are difficult for them as well, but the key difference is that they can pull back when needed and fight smart, while the Wagnerites must charge ever onward.
As an amusing aside, Ukraine's border with Belarus is flooded because of beaver dams (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-swamps-make-attack-belarus-unlikely-now-2023-01-12/) that locals haven't been able to clear because of the war.
So nature itself is helping to protect Ukraine.
Fuck russia
HIMARS strike destroys Russian counterbattery radar (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-himars-destroys-russian-zoopark-radar/)
This radar is designed to pinpoint Ukrainian firing positions, allowing Russians to more accurately target Ukrainian artillery with their own artillery.
Its destruction is the loss of not only an expensive piece of equipment, but an extremely useful asset for Russia which threatens Ukrainian artillery. Its destruction brings Ukrainian artillery crews relief.
It appears that Ukrainian forces are no longer fighting in Soledar, but along its outskirts, having been forced to withdraw. So Russia mostly controls Soledar.
As much as I would've loved to see their advance beaten back, it didn't happen. Instead, the Russians took heavy losses to take a town with little strategic value, much like Severodonetsk.
That "victory" made subsequent Russian advances difficult and opened up thinly-stretched Russian forces to counterattacks - like the famous Kharkiv counteroffensive, which denied Russia Kharkiv city, cut an important supply hub in Izyum, and pushed back Russian forces all the way to the border. Russia was not able to seriously advance again until after the partial mobilization.
So this is a pyrrhic victory for Russia - the capture of a political objective rather than a strategic one. Russian propagandists rejoice, Russian generals sob. Oh to be a fly on the wall when Ukrainians drive Western tanks through such hard-won territory!
Speaking of tanks, the UK just announced that it will send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755)
At the rate things are going, Ukraine stands to have a large supply of some really nice iron alloys. 😁
Ukrainian defense minister states that Russia loses 500-600 every day while Ukraine loses roughly 50-60 (10:1 ratio) (https://news.yahoo.com/russians-lose-500600-invaders-every-095600520.html)
The previous ratio was about 6:1 (in war, it's common for the attacking side to lose more troops than the defending side) and as predicted, all the Western gear flowing into Ukraine, especially Ukraine's prolific use of drones and superior artillery, has widened that gap.
Wagner and the Russian military have been publicly squabling over who should be credited for the "victory" over the tiny salt-mining town of Soledar (https://asapnewsuk.com/zelenskyy-mocks-russian-forces-fighting-for-credit-over-soledar/) (Russia's only major advance in months, months in which it lost lots of territory in the Kharkiv region and the city of Kherson)
Wagner claims they alone did the fighting and claims that "corrupt bureacrats" try to steal their victory from them.
The Russian military announced the "victory", but made no mention of Wagner, later adding them as a footnote after complaints.
Those two have been publicly feuding for a while now, and it appears to be heating up. They practically hate each other now. Why, with just the right push, it's possible for them to come to blows...
Well, if they'd blow each other maybe they could patch things up.
One "elite" Russian battalion down to just 30 troops and 10 tanks (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-battalion-tanks-ukraine-kharkiv-oblast-general-staff-1773875)
A full-strength battalion consists of 700ish troops and about 40 tanks, so there's some serious downsizing going on. It seems that many opted for the Lada retirement plan, lol.
Ukraine receives nine Poseidon Mk II drones (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-military-received-nine-h10-poseidon-mk-ii-uavs/)
Apparently, they're quite nice drones. They have a range of 150 km, Israeli optics, thermal imaging, electronic-warfare protection, etc. They're made for recon, but they're also very useful in covert operations, so Wagner better be light sleepers.
This isn't a new techology for Ukraine, they got three of them back in August (https://gagadget.com/en/152629-the-armed-forces-received-h10-poseidon-ii-drones-worth-over-eur300000/). But they're very expensive ($1.25 million USD for nine, if my math is correct), so receiving nine more is a significant upgrade.
Oopsie! Mishandled grenade kills 3 in Russia near Ukraine border, wounds 16 more (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ten-russian-soldiers-injured-blast-belgorod-tass-cites-emergency-services-2023-01-15/)
US begins expanded training for Ukrainian soldiers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/15/us-military-ukraine-training-germany-grafenwoehr/)
About 500 Ukrainian soldiers will learn combined arms, large-scale warfare.
This seems geared towards counter-offensive, territory-reclaiming operations as opposed to standard defensive operations.
Russian daily kia up to 790, 12 tanks as well.
Russia is paying dearly for Soledar.
Quote from: Unbeliever on January 15, 2023, 12:43:32 PMWell, if they'd blow each other maybe they could patch things up.
*george takei voice*
Friendly fire...
Ooooh myyyyy...
Brand new Russian T-90M destroyed up by Ukrainian armed with Swedish AT4 (https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1614923352162074627)
~$5 million VS $1480. Ukraine is getting dirty deeds done dirt cheap!
Oops, forgot about the Russian tank crew. That's another $20-$30.
With all this talk of tanks lately, lots of people are suddenly tank experts (courtesy of a week-old World of Tanks account) and claim that this or that western tank wouldn't fare well in a one-on-one against a T-72 or T-90.
To those people, I would like to clue them into a little secret about war: it is not and has never been one-on-one, by definition.
Russian tanks, like Russian warships, are generally fairly formidable in their specs. Packed to the gills with armor and weaponry, yet turret-tossing and sinking all the same.
Why? Well, war isn't some video game where armor and dps is all that matters. Using this stuff intelligently is probably the most important thing and brother, Russia doesn't.
(https://images.lbc.co.uk/images/292809?crop=16_9&width=660&relax=1&signature=rjj0dDaJRzXpPsggkDCwQ91xMdM=)
Bunched up while under artillery barrage, then brewed up like a coffee-lovers convention. Running into rivers/lakes (https://defence-blog.com/ukraines-emergency-services-drag-submerged-russian-tank-from-river/) (glub glub). Clumsily running into trees (https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1568282616373059586). Running into landmines in between two other knocked-out tanks (Darwin award material). Shot by friendly fire. Solitary "probing actions" in no man's land before a fateful visit from Saint Javelin. Falling off the train (lol). Ambushed in urban areas. Ambushed from the bushes alongside a road. Ambushed from above. Destroyed in a failed river crossing. Getting stuck. Getting abandoned. Hell, one of them was even sold outright. This isn't just the fate of a rare few, similar inglorious ends came to over 3000 Russian tanks already.
And then there's intel, training, logistics, command, repair, etc. None of that favors Russia.
Pound for pound, Ukraine wins and wins easily. The only real problem so far is that Russia is a giant beast, with plenty of weight to throw around. All the West has to do is bulk up Ukraine and it's a mismatch.
We're always listening: Ukrainian drone steals Russian comm system, allows Ukrainians to eavesdrop for 9 days (https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1615050275190108160)
Jeez, no wonder the kill count jumped up recently. Opsec so bad that you might as well take selfies, use google maps, and order takeout.
I think the way Russia deploys tanks is just a reflection of a general apathy that appears to be prevalent. Wars are logistic/emotional struggles more than anything.
The US military doesn't bother with huge elaborate parades past the dear leaders. The Nazi Germans put on some serious parades, but they could also fight. Sometimes these parades can give dictators and their minions a false sense of miliary might.
Daily kill count up to 870!
A bunch of Wagner troops were annihilated in a trench. First by artillery, then drones finished off the rest.
One thing that struck me about it is that the trench was almost completely straight. in WWI, they started using zig-zagging trenches so that one blast doesn't kill everyone in the trench - a lesson that the Russians don't appear to have fully learned.
Serbia asks Russia to stop recruiting its citizens to serve as mercenaries in Russia's war (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1615337345863008259?t=CdnoTVgEQPJqQ3gqhjV3Yw&s=19)
The UK has increased its new aid package (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-defence-minister-sets-out-further-military-aid-package-ukraine-2023-01-16/): 14 Challenger mark 2 tanks (2 more than previous) and 100 IFVs/AFVs including Bulldogs
Detailed breakdown (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/meet-the-tanks-and-other-armor-the-u-k-is-sending-to-ukraine) of tanks and armored vehicles the UK is sending to Ukraine
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 17, 2023, 02:21:12 PMA bunch of Wagner troops were annihilated in a trench. First by artillery, then drones finished off the rest.
One thing that struck me about it is that the trench was almost completely straight. in WWI, they started using zig-zagging trenches so that one blast doesn't kill everyone in the trench - a lesson that the Russians don't appear to have fully learned.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 17, 2023, 02:21:12 PMA bunch of Wagner troops were annihilated in a trench. First by artillery, then drones finished off the rest.
One thing that struck me about it is that the trench was almost completely straight. in WWI, they started using zig-zagging trenches so that one blast doesn't kill everyone in the trench - a lesson that the Russians don't appear to have fully learned.
MythBusters did the trench thing in episode 191.
Straight Trench
High Angle Trench
That video frustratingly left out the conclusion. :/
Captain Wikipedia to the rescue! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MythBusters_(2012_season)#Episode_191_%E2%80%93_%22Trench_Torpedo%22)
QuoteMyth Statement: Trenches dug during World War I were designed to bend at sharp right angles to reduce the impact of an explosive shock wave.
First, Adam and Jamie created a small-scale experiment using three tanks filled with water and mineral oil to outline the differences in the wave patterns; the first tank was designed straight, the second with two sharp right angles, and the third with two rounded right angles. When waves were created at one end of each tank, the respective amplitudes at the other end were measured at 3/4", 1/8" and 1/4".
Next, they dug three trenches with the same shapes as the tanks, and lined the walls with color-coded plywood to both distinguish the trenches from each other and compensate the shapes as much as possible. Finally, they began testing with explosives, first with an above ground control, in which sensors at 20, 30, 40 and 50 ft (6, 9, 12 and 15 m) registered pressure differentials of 39, 12, 7 and 5 psi (269, 83, 48 and 34 kPa), respectively.
In the straight trench test, the same sensors registered 397, 65, 38 and 21 psi (2,737, 448, 262 and 145 kPa).
The sharp-angled trench test showed pressure differentials of 60, 19, 12 and 7 psi (414, 131, 83 and 48 kPa).
Finally, the round-angled trench test yielded pressure differentials of 76, 21, 13 and 8 psi (524, 145, 90 and 55 kPa).
Because the sharp-angled trench showed the lowest pressure readings out of the three trench tests, Adam and Jamie dubbed the myth plausible.
Not only is it a generally good idea because of the demonstrably less pressure, it's safe to assume that it's better for shrapnel to travel 5 feet down a trench than 20 feet down that trench.
I assume that people living through WWI and WWII preferred the zig-zagging trenches for more than just their aesthetic qualities. I also assume that it's been tried both ways and the zig-zagging trenches caught on for good reason.
Red-on-red: Russian military mistakenly fires on and destroys Wagner tank and armored vehicle (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-news-latest-ukraine-russia-war-news-latest/)
Jeez, who's leading these guys, General Krell?
Today's Russian KIA:
820 troops
9 tanks
10 armored vehicles
12 vehicles
4 artillery
1 plane
4 drones
How long before Putin has to just give up and admit Russia just can't win?
Quote from: Unbeliever on January 18, 2023, 01:54:19 PMHow long before Putin has to just give up and admit Russia just can't win?
He's gearing up for a long war, looking to recruit ~500k in a silent mobilization by relaxing military ages and standards as well as more relentlessly mobilizing from occupied territory.
Even so, that only buys him 1-2 years. Unfortunately, his takeaway from Donbass is that if you throw enough bodies at it, you will take territory. From there, he simply has to sue for peace to keep what he's taken, reconstitute his forces, and make another push.
Delusional thinking, of course, but the saying goes that no one is more deluded by state media than its dictator.
Throwing more men at it is not going to play well when the Ukrainians have much more armor to work with.
At this point, I'm not sure Russia will have enough men to repopulate when this is all over. Might have to start taking notes from Joseph Smith.
Well, it doesn't take many men to repopulate, since one man can impregnate many women, but I see your point.
I just hope it doesn't take ten years, like it took them (and us) in Afghanistan.
Video from 4 months ago, but some parts are timeless:
[referring to Kharkiv offensive and loss of vast amounts of Russian-occupied territory]
"I hope they'll get these territories back"
(They did not get those territories back - ed)
US prepping major aid package to Ukraine (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/18/major-military-package-ukraine-russia-00078331)
QuoteThe package will likely include a number of Strykers, an eight-wheeled armored fighting vehicle built by General Dynamics Land Systems, as well as ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of roughly 100 miles
These GLSDB (really rolls off the tongue) are no small threat to the Russian invaders.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiLxiX-WAAYo5E3.jpg:small)
With a range of 100 miles (~160 km), they can target virtually any Russian position in Ukraine (except Crimea, which is just barely out of range...for now) They're not ATACMS (300km range), but they'll do the job and make life very difficult for Russian positions that were previously "safe".
QuoteThe Biden administration currently has no plans to send the Abrams, the Army's 60-ton main battle tank, the people said.
The reluctance is due to the logistical and maintenance challenges of the tanks, and not over concern that their transfer could escalate the conflict, one of the U.S. officials said.
Unfortunately Abrams tanks apparently wouldn't do much good without a large amounts of supply/maintenance which Ukraine simply doesn't have. So it'd be more of a hassle than help, which is a shame because it was literally built to fight Russian armor.
Oh well, at least Poland will have them, which will allow Poland to part with tanks it no longer needs.
Quote"Our judgment to date has been that the juice isn't really working the squeeze on the ATACMs.
No idea what they meant by that, all I know is that they need to start scheduling these press conferences in the afternoon, after everyone's had coffee, lunch, and possibly a nap.
QuoteWith a range of 100 miles (~160 km), they can target virtually any Russian position in Ukraine (except Crimea, which is just barely out of range...for now) They're not ATACMS (300km range), but they'll do the job and make life very difficult for Russian positions that were previously "safe".
While I feel Ukraine has every right to attack Moskva on all it's holdings (because they do), I feel this is a good compromise - as long as Ukraine can credibly claim itself to be the defending country, it will have Western public support and (more importantly) pressure on politicians to send weapons.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 19, 2023, 02:42:24 AMWhile I feel Ukraine has every right to attack Moskva on all it's holdings (because they do), I feel this is a good compromise - as long as Ukraine can credibly claim itself to be the defending country, it will have Western public support and (more importantly) pressure on politicians to send weapons.
As long as they're hitting military targets, IDGAF what they hit.
Normally, I'd care a great deal, but civilian massacres like Bucha and these ongoing missile barrages primarily against civilians, launched from Russian territory, sometimes Belarusian territory, is the height of cowardice and cruelty and anything that flies back is richly deserved and plausible self-defense.
But for political and practical reasons, they should refrain from hitting Russian targets in Belarus. It's terribly unfair that Russia can use that country as a launch site for aggression without response, but dictators behave in many ways that democratic leaders cannot.
Sweden is sending 50 Combat Vehicle 90 (IFV) and 12 Archer artillery systems to Ukraine (https://defence-blog.com/sweden-to-deliver-cv90-fighting-vehicles-to-ukraine/)
Russia did its normal song and dance - it will prolong the war that Russia is definitely winning this, threat to European security that, nuke threat - it's all really predictable and sad at this point. Like a Chihuahua barking at a pack of wolves.
Russia should consider itself lucky that they made enemies of civilized countries and not people with a similar mentality as them.
As for threats to European security, every country that borders Russia will tell you what that is, and they'll all give you the same answer. Every aid package to Ukraine - big or small - shortens the war, saves lives, and changes the future for the better.
Nuremberg 2: the European Parliament passed a resolution calling for a tribunal for dictator Putin and dictator Lukashenko and their staff (https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1616050920436948993)
Estonia to provide Ukraine with howitzers, ammunition, artillery support vehicles, and grenade launchers (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/estonia-will-transfer-the-largest-yet-aid-package-worth-113-million-euros-to-ukraine/)
This might not seem too impressive, but with this package, Estonia will have provided over 1% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine, which is more than everyone else. The UK, US, and Canada are all around 1/4 of 1%.
That's something to bear in mind when the Republicans talk about the "vast" sums spent on Ukraine, it's really just the DoD's pocket change and it's to stop genocide. Ask them what that money would ordinarily fund that would be better and if abandoning our allies in their time of need would be a smart move.
During the beginning of the war, Bulgaria quietly supplied Ukraine with a third of its ammo and 40% of its fuel (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/at-the-beginning-of-the-war-a-third-of-ukrainian-ammunition-was-supplied-from-bulgaria-welt/)
Pivotal help that allowed Ukraine to withstand the initial onslaught, buying Ukraine the time it needed for further aid.
If Kyiv had fallen in those early days, we wouldn't be talking about HIMARS and Leopards right now, we'd be talking about a second holocaust.
Quote from: Blackleaf on January 18, 2023, 03:21:52 PMAt this point, I'm not sure Russia will have enough men to repopulate when this is all over. Might have to start taking notes from Joseph Smith.
About that, there was a really batshit Russian propaganda "commercial" (which of course I can't find) where some western guy is trying dating apps but gets confused by pronouns and lgbt people (obsession with and hatred for lgbt is a recurring theme in Russian media) and decides to give up western dating for hot traditional Russian women (lol) who are totally into him for reasons that aren't entirely clear. Sounds legit.
The takeaway is apparently that Russia is a good place for sex tourism. It seems strange that Russia, which is presented as a land of muscular, manly men would want us beta male westoids to come over and sex their women, but there it is. This whole thing might be slightly related to them losing 6 figures of men in war and 6 figures of both sexes fleeing the country. The later seems like a strange thing to do in a country that's doing just fine, even boasting an impeccable dating scene. Also, I wouldn't be so sure Russian women aren't as deranged as the men. Some dude's wife encouraged him to rape Ukrainian women. Yikes. Might wanna swipe left on that one.
Well, I came across a Russian state media "commercial" that outdid even that piece of garbage:
LOL, if Russians seriously have this impression of the US, they'd be in for a rude awakening, especially in the South, where none of this is even slightly true.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 19, 2023, 06:54:02 PMLOL, if Russians seriously have this impression of the US, they'd be in for a rude awakening, especially in the South, where none of this is even slightly true.
I honestly don't care what they think about us. I think they're crappy.
Quote from: the_antithesis on January 19, 2023, 08:09:58 PMI honestly don't care what they think about us. I think they're crappy.
Listening leads to understanding leads to winning. We're always listening.
Also, I often find stupidity, especially massive stupidity, to be genuinely hilarious, since I can sense (but the object of mirth does not) the twisted tea can coming. And finally, sometimes you must make a mockery of something horrible to lessen its hold over others.
Finland's 12th aid package to more than double all its previous aid packages combined (https://www.defmin.fi/en/topical/press_releases_and_news/finland_to_deliver_more_defence_materiel_to_ukraine.13357.news#60d5a5b6) (Total contribution from 190 million Euros to 590 million Euros)
Like other aid packages, this one is secret to ensure its safe arrival. All we know for now is that it includes heavy artillery and munitions.
Netherlands considering supplying F-16s to Ukraine (https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/20/netherlands-consider-helping-ukraine-f-16-fighters-leopard-2-tanks)
And they're definitely willing to help pay for Leopard 2 tanks to be sent to Ukraine.
Europe is winning the energy war against Russia (https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2023/01/19/europe-is-winning-the-energy-war-against-russia/?sh=2c809e02198b)
Fantastic summary of the situation so far. Essentially, Russia was hoping that an energy-starved Europe would cave in to Russian demands, stop sanctions, and look the other way with Ukraine. Instead the exact opposite has happened.
Europe has enjoyed an unseasonably warm winter so far and has adapted to a lack of Russian oil.
Russia, on the other hand, lost a lot of business and has NOT been able to adapt by shifting its oil exports to other countries. China buys oil with a 30-40% discount, which pretty much obliterates profits.
Russia, not Europe, is the one experiencing severe economic woes. And Putin's strategic blunder benefits the US in particular:
QuoteIt is especially ironic that the actual beneficiary of Putin's failed geostrategic gamble is the United States. In 2022 the US overtook Russia as a gas supplier to Europe. Most European leaders rushed to secure LNG deals with the US, leading to an additional $1 trillion in revenue for American energy companies such as Cheniere Energy (LNG.A.) and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA). The energy crisis deepened cooperation between Washington and Brussels, leaving Europe all but disconnected from Russia and more reliant on the US. Synergistically, this new energy cooperation will strengthen the transatlantic alliance which bodes well for the Ukrainian war effort as well.
Essentially, Russia is cut off from a lucrative energy trade, with the US somewhat filling that role. And deepened economic ties between the US and EU strengthens both parties and ultimately means a stronger NATO.
QuoteWhile the war is not over, Russia – and Putin – have already lost. Whatever the outcome, Russia lost the European energy market and a principal source of revenue, and Europe shed its dependence on Russian energy and is better off as the result.
Russian S-400 confirmed destroyed (https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1616445311185993731)
Russia's most advanced air defense system in Ukraine. First time one has been destroyed in this war.
Russian social media says they blew up an Abrams tank (there are zero Abrams tanks there)
(https://preview.redd.it/tp1dlpy768da1.jpg?width=1154&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=66ccc9afbf9f8fc60a2caee2cc3b0b016e14cf31)
And they killed the black guy, too. :'( Even their fantasies are savage!
Now, all that is necessary is for an Abrams to reach Ukrainian soil...
Boy, that US tank looks like it was getting hot in that bright sun, so they parked under the green trees in Ukraine in Jan and then for some reason photo-shopped all that yellow desert sand.
Cyprus is reportedly ready to send its T-80U soviet-era tanks to Ukraine in exchange for Leopard 2 tanks (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1616578353984585728)
Ukrainian forces are already well-versed with those, so they'd be able to put those into use right away.
I randomly tuned into the World Economic Forum, where Scholtz was in the middle of talking about... "Last year, Russia brought an unjustified war of imperial aggression right to Europe's doorsteps."
I find it embarrassing that an American of all people knows more about European geography than a German leader - Ukraine is not the "doorstep" of Europe, it's in Europe; it's the foyer and a bunch of barbarians have burst down the door. But something tells me he made a Freudian slip - that Germans really don't view Ukrainians as "Europeans" but as Slavic inferiors.
In Germany, the people of my grandmother - the Serbja, indigenous Slavic people along the Oder on the Germany/Poland border - face discrimination and the erasure of their language and culture to this day; it is only holding on by a thread. This is the flag of Upper Lusatia - it's not a coincidence it's patterned the way it is.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ce/Flagge_Oberlausitz.svg/220px-Flagge_Oberlausitz.svg.png)
A lot of culture, a lot of history of the people's between Germany and Russia has been lost - starting with at least the Teutonic Knights, through the era of the Mongol, and into the mass genocide of life and culture that took place in WW1 and WW2; the Nazis intentionally destroying historical sites of Slavic cultures and erasing any written history they could find so that none would ever remember these "inferiour" people once had culture.
Some habits die hard for some people - I fear some in Germany view the death of Slavs as a return to the "good ol' days."
What a weird thing to say. Maybe he intended to say "NATO's doorsteps" or "the EU's doorsteps" but bungled it and substituted "Europe's doorsteps", which is like you say, geographically incorrect. The Ural mountains (well within Russian borders) is the most agreed-upon eastern border of Europe.
I too have been frustrated by German reluctance as of late. The Marders are nice, but Leopards are nicer. Hopefully the protests and intense diplomatic pressure will change officials' minds.
On the plus side, Ukrainian forces will soon start training on Leopards (https://www.yahoo.com/news/germany-allows-ukraine-preparatory-training-160539831.html), which would be utterly illogical unless Ukraine is ultimately getting Leopards.
Thus I'm reasonably certain that one or several countries will formally announce that they are sending Leopards by the time training is done.
Though why that announcement wasn't today or last week or 8 months ago, I don't know.
Daily Russian kia: 860
Ukraine has been very busy lately, every day is in the 700s or low 800s. This is the highest one recently.
This comes as Ukrainian forces blew up a Wagner HQ in Soledar (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-s-army-eliminates-wagner-mercenaries-headquarters-and-field-depot-in-soledar-50298853.html). Lots of similar videos. Much of the elevetated kill count can be attributed to excellent Ukrainian recon, very accurate artillery shots, and Wagner's tendency to bunch up and poor ability to use cover (poor training, poor general intelligence)
General and intelligence do not go together.
Art imitates life: Visitors at a museum in Lviv can push a button and sink a replica of the Moskva (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/visitors-ukrainian-science-museum-submerge-132030924.html)
One Ukrainian soldier: "I already did that"
(https://preview.redd.it/eu3a10gyofda1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=dd91a60e53cb396179c6c77908473fac3167ba53)
Cheapskate dictator.
German defense industry: (https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1617064545788522497) "US offers tanks and long-term industrial partnership to every European country that can deliver Leopard 2 to Ukraine.
Each country that accepts US offer is lost for German defence industry"
All the more reason to free the Leopards first!
Germany has the opportunity to make headlines in a hugely positive way and lead the pack. Or fall behind and watch someone else make history.
Germans are good at making history.
(https://i.redd.it/4x9dahcbgsda1.jpg)
Expired rations, airsoft body armor, a partially-working T-62 with a cope cage and rubber ERA, a "base" that looks more like a homeless encampment, but you better have snappy uniforms and be well-shaved!
Seriously, this is fantastic news for Ukraine. Russian generals are more concerned with not looking bad or taking blame than with winning the war, because they already know that's impossible. This warped prioritizing will strongly favor Ukrainian operations going forward (Russian units may operate irrationally and in tactically unsound ways) and make victory that much easier.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 23, 2023, 09:23:09 AMExpired rations, airsoft body armor, a partially-working T-62 with a cope cage and rubber ERA, a "base" that looks more like a homeless encampment, but you better have snappy uniforms and be well-shaved!
Seriously, this is fantastic news for Ukraine. Russian generals are more concerned with not looking bad or taking blame than with winning the war, because they already know that's impossible. This warped prioritizing will strongly favor Ukrainian operations going forward (Russian units may operate irrationally and in tactically unsound ways) and make victory that much easier.
Even the US Army allowed accurate depictions of GIs in WW2
(https://i0.wp.com/militaryhistorynow.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/wj.jpg?w=400&ssl=1)
Ukrainian forces shoot down 2 Russian planes and a helicopter (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3657726-air-defense-forces-shoot-down-two-russian-su25s-ka52-helicopter-in-eastern-ukraine.html)
Of the first 1000 prisoners Wagner recruited for war, only 20 are alive and returned to Russia (https://www-unian-net.translate.goog/war/poteri-chvk-vagnera-iz-tysyachi-domoy-vernulis-20-12108465.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
(https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2022-08/23/22/asset/29441a3336c3/sub-buzz-1026-1661292314-7.jpg?resize=625:*)
Over 100 Russian troops buried under rubble after strike on their base (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-luhansk-hospital-war-strike-base-rubble-1775642)
(https://i.imgur.com/nzhZWNM.jpg)
Ukraine shoots down 3 Russian helicopters in 30 minutes (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/01/24/ukraine-destroys-three-russian-helicopters-in-30-minutes-six-more-air-targets-during-the-day-air-force-command/?swcfpc=1)
Before the war, these things actually had a reputation for survivability. Crazy.
According to der Spiegel (https://archive.ph/CXE8s), Germany will soon announce that it will send at least one company of Leopard tanks to Ukraine!
For those of you not fluent in German:
QuoteAfter months of debate, Chancellor Scholz has decided to deliver battle tanks to Ukraine.
QuoteGermany will deliver Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. According to SPIEGEL information, at least one Leopard 2A6 company is involved. Other allies, including from Scandinavia, also want to deliver Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. The federal government wants to grant permission to export such tanks that are owned by other states such as Poland.
QuoteThe German decision was apparently preceded by intensive consultations over several days with the allies, especially in Washington.
QuoteAccording to SPIEGEL information, the German Leopard tanks are said to come from Bundeswehr stocks. In the medium to long term, other battle tanks from industry stocks could be prepared for use.
(https://preview.redd.it/5q9mv2cx61ea1.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=b4518a14ca3a73f163866c23e7d568563c8e14fe)
#FreeTheLeopards
Blast rocks Russian base in Mariupol (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3658875-blast-rocks-barracks-housing-more-than-200-russian-soldiers-in-mariupol.html)
At least 200 troops were there at the time of the explosion.
Daily kill tally is 910, largest one recently. Also destroyed 9 tanks and 23 armored vehicles
Serbian tennis fans apparently also quite fond of fascism, genocide (https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Tennis_Stories/127471/picwatch-serbian-fans-unweil-z-shirt-bring-russian-flag-with-vladimir-putin-s-face/)
We need to bring back Punch-A-Nazi Day.
Lots of new aid shipment developments in the wake of Germany unleashing the Leopards:
Germany to send 14 Leopards (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-will-receive-80-leopard-tanks-from-european-countries-spiegel/), which should arrive by the end of March. The plan is for other countries to pitch in to bring the total up to 80. Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, and Poland have announced their intention to send Leopards. Spain and Portugal are also considering it. (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/25/u-s-to-send-31-abrams-tanks-to-ukraine-in-major-reversal-00079437)
US to send 31 Abrams tanks (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/25/u-s-to-send-31-abrams-tanks-to-ukraine-in-major-reversal-00079437) (apparently, the logistics aren't so bad after all! that or inspiring allies to help is more important than its limited utility in this situation)
Additionally, Sweden (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/sweden-is-considering-transferring-its-stridsvagn-122-tanks-to-ukraine/) and France (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/tanks-ukraine-who-is-lining-up-send-them-kyiv-2023-01-25/) are looking into sending their own tanks. And as already announced, the UK is sending theirs as well.
So the first batch will probably be 100+ tanks. Not a bad start. Ukraine needs about 500 tanks, iirc.
Baykar is sending 2 more Baykratar drones (https://gur.gov.ua/en/content/kompaniia-baikar-peredala-bezkoshtovno-shche-2-bezpilotnyky-bairaktar-tb2.html) free of charge (no need for payment, business is boomin'!)
I can't fully describe how positive all this news truly is. This is going to have such a huge impact - break the stalemate and grinding war of attrition, enable huge Ukrainian counteroffensives that'll make the Kharkiv offensive look tiny in comparison, and ultimately this will shave months off the war and save lives, probably in the thousands.
The US will also increase artillery production sixfold (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.html)
The US simply has much, much more industrial might to draw upon than Russia. And that has only widened due to sanctions and the ally mismatch (the US has Canada, UK, France, Germany, Japan, etc - Russia has Belarus and Iran and maybe North Korea)
When it comes to shipping supplies and feeding the guns, Russia will run out first.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 25, 2023, 09:32:58 PMThe US will also increase artillery production sixfold (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.html)
The US simply has much, much more industrial might to draw upon than Russia. And that has only widened due to sanctions and the ally mismatch (the US has Canada, UK, France, Germany, Japan, etc - Russia has Belarus and Iran and maybe North Korea)
When it comes to shipping supplies and feeding the guns, Russia will run out first.
(https://www.nationalww2museum.org/sites/default/files/styles/wide_large/public/2017-07/rosie-960x700.jpg)
Russian ambassador reacts to Abrams tanks (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ambassador-says-us-m1-abrams-tanks-will-destroyed-ukraine-1776300): "Obviously, Washington is deliberately trying to inflict strategic defeat on us,"
To the contrary, we're not trying to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. Ukraine already has that on lock. We're just going to exacerbate that defeat into such a goddamn catastrophe for Russia that Dictator Putin will shoot himself in his bunker and Russia will never be in the position to threaten one of its neighbors again for a long, long time.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 25, 2023, 09:32:58 PMThe US will also increase artillery production sixfold (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.html)
The US simply has much, much more industrial might to draw upon than Russia. And that has only widened due to sanctions and the ally mismatch (the US has Canada, UK, France, Germany, Japan, etc - Russia has Belarus and Iran and maybe North Korea)
When it comes to shipping supplies and feeding the guns, Russia will run out first.
I might need to look into shifting careers towards arms production...
Yeah, it seems to be a very lucrative business these days. 🪖💣⚔️
Quote from: Shiranu on January 25, 2023, 11:14:13 PMI might need to look into shifting careers towards arms production...
Or sales.
(https://i.imgur.com/7100wcE.jpg)
Russia launched another missile barrage (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64411259) (probably in response to the tank news, since they admitted to doing such things in retaliation for bad news from their perspective and to prompt "peace" negotiations)
Ukraine shot down 47 out of 55. 24 out of 24 shahed drones also shot down. Killed 1 and wounded 2. Apparently they think Kyiv will surely surrender after such an onslaught.
Canada looking into sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/canada-will-join-in-the-transfer-of-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine/)
Meanwhile the Russians got back some of their Soviet-export, 1944 vintage T34 tanks and are so happy they still crank-up! Could be a future Mark Felton episode if they end up actually deploying them.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1618564448582774784
LOL T-34s.
Those fuel pods on the side might as well have a "shoot here" sign on them. Don't get me wrong, they got the job done in WWII, but man, they definitely don't hold up against modern weapons.
And speaking of low T tanks, Russia is considering sending in its T-14 Armata tanks to Ukraine (https://www.newsweek.com/what-are-t-14-armata-battle-tanks-russia-ukraine-1776512?amp=1). Though why they haven't been used yet says a lot in itself. Think about it. If you were in charge, wouldn't you send your best to ensure victory? Would it make sense to take T-62 out of storage and send them in first? Would you sit on them as your forces were chewed up in a grinding war of attrition for nearly a year?
There's good reason for this hesitancy, and that reason is that they're of dubious quality:
QuoteRussian forces deployed in Ukraine have been "reluctant to accept the first tranche of T-14 allocated to them because the vehicles were in such poor condition," the MoD wrote in a Twitter post.
After seeing a war footage video from Halloween of last year where a Russian tank in Ukraine turns its turret during combat and very nearly crushes infantry on top of another vehicle (the infantry were certainly manhandled, but luckily for them, the turret pulled back before anyone splatted) I can safely say that at this point, it honestly doesn't matter what sort of tank they're in. They're too stupid to operate them well, so if they're up against peer or near-peer forces, they will lose.
Spain to send 40 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine (https://www.epe.es/es/internacional/20230125/tanques-leopard-espana-mandara-ucrania-viejos-81973890)
QuoteThe Leopard tanks that Spain will send to Ukraine will be up to 40 of the old 2A4 tanks.
Delivery times range from four months to a maximum of one year for those in the worst condition.
Poland is sending 14 Leopard tanks PLUS 60 PT-91 tanks (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1618881729250603010)
PT-91 is basically a heavily upgraded T-72. All new engine, fire control, communications, etc. Ukrainian forces will definitely enjoy using those.
QuoteThe basic aim of the T-72 conversion was to adapt it to the reality of modern warfare and fix its most visible deficiencies. Among those were low mobility, insufficient armour, lack of a fire control system and poor stabilisation of the main gun, which resulted in poor firing accuracy. An additional problem was the lack of passive night vision aiming systems.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/PT-91_Twardy
LOL this is what Russian forces currently use, if they're lucky and don't get a T-62.
Daily Russian KIA up to 850.
At this rate, they'll hit 150k by March.
In order to take the tiny mining town of Soledar, Wagner forces lost two-thirds of their manpower (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3659040-ukrainian-forces-withdraw-from-soledar-to-save-personnel-afu.html)
Wagner forces also bitterly complained about the lack of artillery support from the Russian military (https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1617911031644450817) (Wagner reportedly wanted to take all the credit for Soledar, so it makes sense to do it unaided so as to not lie)
The US has branded Wagner a criminal organization and introduced new sanctions (https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/26/politics/us-wagner-group-sanctions-russia/index.html) (this is another one of those things that should've been done months ago)
Ukraine upgrading airport infrastructure to host F-16s (https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1619039016409776129?s=46&t=6HHUAbW39WkB1fPpcN-F0A)
(https://i.imgflip.com/31po1l.png)
Coincidentally, training on F-16s has been approved. Why? No reason...
I can't wait to see who gets to star in Ukraine's version of Top Gun. 🤔
Quote from: Unbeliever on January 27, 2023, 04:57:00 PMI can't wait to see who gets to star in Ukraine's version of Top Gun. 🤔
Zelenskyy, of course. One of the many perks of an actor/president.
Get a load of this. Tricky Dick nailed it.
Yep. Weak and backwards people need strongmen.
I'm reading about the upcoming Ukrainian tank zoo (https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/the_tank_zoo_how_many_models_of_tanks_and_their_versions_ukraine_has_and_what_more_is_expected-5572.html), and if you count variants, there are already about two dozen types in Ukraine already. Western aid will certainly increase that.
QuoteThe Leopard 2 and Abrams are unified in terms of ammo, but not only have all other components different, they even require different sets of tools in the metric and inch systems. Challenger 2 needs both sets, because the turret and the body are on different "bolts".
We're (the US and UK) introducing the imperial units of measurement to Ukraine. Haven't they suffered enough?
Putin's helicopter crashed (https://www.newsweek.com/helicopter-transport-vladimir-putin-top-officials-crash-lands-moscow-1777272) 🚁 💥
He wasn't on it, unfortunately.
The Czech Republic elected a new President (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-retired-general-aims-beat-tycoon-ex-pm-presidential-race-2023-01-27/), a pro-Western and strongly pro-Ukraine retired general
This guy used to be a NATO chairman. So when the Kremlin spews lies about NATO, tries to divide NATO, tries to threaten NATO, this guy isn't fooled at all.
There has recently been a series of explosions in Iran (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Iran_explosions)
Currently, we do not know who is responsible, the true extent of the damage, etc. Its relation to Ukraine is that one of the targets was an ammunition plant (Iran has formally supplied Russia with drones and missiles used in its war of aggression against Ukraine)
Presumably, drones were used in this attack, but as stated earlier, we currently do not know the source of these alleged drones.
40,000 Wagner troopers are dead/missing/deserted/surrendered, leaving just 10,000 left (https://m.jpost.com/international/article-729938) (that's a loss of 80%)
Regular Russian forces are replacing Wagner forces along the frontline (https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1619522953988964354?s=20&t=NJQRb-xdfr6CzUScMIOAEQ), otherwise it would collapse
Ukrainian lawmaker warned by China not to receive aid from Taiwan (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4793919)
Why? What's wrong with receiving aid from the Republic of China?
Russia was making big plans for Ukraine's nuclear power plants before its invasion fell apart (https://news.yahoo.com/russia-making-big-plans-ukraines-153700960.html)
QuoteWithin three days to a week of attacking, Putin planned to capture Kyiv, topple Ukraine's government, and demilitarize Ukrainian forces.
The Kremlin planned on using Ukrainian nuclear plants in 3 ways:
1) Unassailable bases for Russian troops, especially command-and-control points
2) Hold Ukrainian's electrical system hostage (Ukrainian nuclear plants provide 60% of Ukrainian electricity, Moscow could threaten punishing blackouts any time its demands are not met, especially during winter)
3) Nuclear blackmail to deter foreign intervention (for example, western tanks being sent to Ukraine)
QuoteMoreover, to deal with any Ukrainian provinces that refused to cooperate with the proxy government Moscow was planning to install, the Russians planned to weaponize the captured nuclear power plants to cut off electricity to those regions.
Moscow's goal was the "denuclearization" of Ukraine through the capture and control of its nuclear power plants, along with the destruction of Ukraine's national identity and of Ukraine's military forces and defense industry, according to the RUSI report.
Russia does not act with any sense of international law or compassion. It cares only about achieving its own aims. Any future dealings with Russia must bear in mind not just the horror experienced by the Ukrainians but the also the extreme devastation Russia planned to inflict but did not inflict for the sole reason that it was unable to do so.
Not exactly "contemporary" history, but one thing I am noticing is that you truly cannot have an understanding of modern Ukrainian history (or Russian anti-Semitism) without understanding just how big of role the Ashkenazim population of Eastern Europe have played in Ukrainian history.
The most obvious example is this - since the beginning of the 1800's Russia has been committing pogroms and passing laws denying hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian Jews even the most fundamental of human rights; a less obvious example is the amount of Jewish politicians within Ukrainian history - several holding high offices and leading massive social revolutions for the betterment of the people that were violently suppressed by Russia.
Hell, even just Ukraine's history as the heartland of the "Jewish Enlightenment" has played a massive role in the cultural differences between Ukraine and Russia. There is a reason Russia is sponsoring far-right anti-Semitics across the globe and making the dialogue all about Jews - the guilty dog yaps the loudest.
If anyone is interested in this type of history of Ukraine, Dr. Henry Abramson has several videos on the history of Ukraine as well (believe his thesis was on Ukrainian history) that are really worth checking out, as well as Overly Sarcastic Production's video for a more crash-course intro.
This is why the "denazification" of Ukraine by Russia is ridiculous.
Doesn't matter the nation really. If you happen to be an aspiring dictator of a mostly Christian or Muslim nation, you will need to vilify some group and well they are...the goddam Jews.
Quote from: Cassia on January 30, 2023, 06:14:10 PMThis is why the "denazification" of Ukraine by Russia is ridiculous.
Doesn't matter the nation really. If you happen to be an aspiring dictator of a mostly Christian or Muslim nation, you will need to vilify some group and well they are...the goddam Jews.
Yep; convenient that the people who "killed Jesus" (just ignore that it was actually Romans who did it at behest of a small sect of Rabbi that most Jews kinda hated for being corrupt assholes anyways) also happen to be the one's promoting human rights, diverse education, cultural tolerance and free economies - don't even need these high brow reasons, just blame Jesus's death on them and the peasants will love it!
Ignorance and stupidity are the right-hand lapdogs of Evil.
Today's invader KIA: 850
An explanation for the above:
Russian Marines Just Attempted Another Frontal Assault On Ukrainian Positions Around Pavlivka. The Result Was Predictably Bloody (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/30/russian-marines-just-attempted-another-frontal-assault-on-ukrainian-positions-around-pavlivka-the-result-was-predictably-bloody/?sh=77fffbea61c4)
QuoteThe 155th Marine Brigade back in November suffered devastating losses in sloppy, frontal attacks against entrenched Ukrainians around Pavlivka, in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region. Last week, the brigade tried the same dumb tactics against an even more fortified foe in nearby Vuhledar—and seemingly suffered yet another horrific defeat.
QuoteUkrainian missile teams lay in wait for the Russian marines who managed to get through the artillery fire. One video from the 72nd Mechanized Brigade depicts Javelin missile strikes on two T-80 tanks and a BMP-3 fighting vehicle from the 155th Marine Brigade. A photo that appeared on Telegram purports to depict a trench filled with dead Russian marines.
QuoteRussian planners and commanders seem to be incapable of learning even the simplest battlefield lessons. For example: support your infantry with artillery. Don't attack uphill. Try flanking the enemy.
It's not all dumb tactics, of course. There are attempts to cut off Ukrainian supply lines in Bakhmut, for example. So don't think that they're always so dumb. But sometimes, they do very poor tactics with predictable results. Putin doesn't care. He'll send another battalion tomorrow.
(https://i.redd.it/e2rybchehdfa1.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/sgldnvy8y9fa1.png)
Both things are basically true, and have been most of the war.
Russia has huge manpower losses in exchange for minor gains. Ukrainian defenders are often outnumbered and holding their own, but it is a tense situation and western aid could make or break ownership of the currently besieged town and the next counteroffensive.
(https://i.redd.it/lnh9givqgefa1.jpg)
"Invade Crimea" Hmmm...I wonder who did that? 🤔
Edit - she even said "take it back", acknowledging that Russia stole land while at the same calling it "insanity" to push invaders out of your own territory.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 31, 2023, 01:14:00 PM(https://i.redd.it/lnh9givqgefa1.jpg)
"Invade Crimea" Hmmm...I wonder who did that? 🤔
Edit - she even said "take it back", acknowledging that Russia stole land while at the same calling it "insanity" to push invaders out of your own territory.
Let's invade her house and shit in her bed. Then when she tried to get us to leave, we'll call her insane.
Stop aligning yourselves with despots, Republicans, or people are going to think you're assholes.
Austria and Hungary agree to not send weapons to Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/31/7387265/)
What fantastic allies :/
Thankfully, pretty much the entirety of Europe, North America, and others can pick up the slack, but damn, that's terrible news to break.
Especially since those Allied nations will no doubt be at the forefront of the new International Order, so you really don't want them to be mad with you. In the center of this new order will be a victorious Ukraine which will have experienced more death as a result of a lack of substantive help in their time of deepest need. Definitely something that will have repurcussions in the future.
Putin tried very hard to fracture Allied support for Ukraine, and damned if he hasn't succeed in some areas. Certainly Trump and Orban (https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-orban-corruption-transparency-international/) were big wins for him and losses for democracy.
(https://i.imgur.io/GCP96Ej_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
General Atomics (US weapons maker) offers to sell to Ukraine two Reaper drones for $1 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-company-offers-advanced-drones-to-ukraine-for-one-dollar-with-caveat-11675203260)
QuoteThe deal also would require Kyiv to spend about $10 million to prepare and ship the aircraft to Ukraine, and about $8 million each year for maintenance
They always screw ya on shipping. :/
Still, they normally go for $32 million a piece, so $18 million for two for a year isn't a bad deal.
I'd really hate to be a Russian soldier faced with Reapers. They live up to their name.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on January 31, 2023, 09:04:32 PMI'd really hate to be a Russian soldier faced with Reapers. They live up to their name.
Or a logistics truck driver.
Skill issue: Ukrainian Soviet-era tanks outperform Russian Soviet-era tanks (https://canadatoday.news/ca/rare-battlefield-footage-shows-how-upgraded-soviet-era-ukraine-tanks-outperform-upgraded-soviet-era-russia-252454/)
QuoteIn footage released online in December, a Ukrainian T-64BV and a Russian T-72B3 tank engaged in a deadly duel in the east of the country. Although the Ukrainian armor was older, it finished off its Russian opponent with a single long-range shot.
QuoteAccording to the report, when the war began, the Russian invasion force's 2,800 "combat-ready tanks" vastly outnumbered the approximately 900 total tanks in the Ukrainian military.
Since then, Russia has lost over 3,200 tanks - more than the invasion force started with (they've brought more out of storage since)
Russia faces new energy-exporting crisis (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-fuel-embargo-eu-diesel-g7-price-cap-china-india-2023-1)
QuoteThe European Union will ban imports of refined Russian fuels on February 5, adding to its embargo on seaborne Russian crude oil that began in December.
China and India softened the blow of the previous sanctions/cap on Russian crude oil. Will they come to Russia's aid when it comes to refined oil?
920 Russian KIA yesterday (https://glavcom-ua.translate.goog/news/zakhisniki-likviduvali-920-zaharbnikiv-henshtab-onoviv-vtrati-voroha-za-dobu--905700.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui)
"What station you need, General?"France supplies sophisticated anti-air/missile/drone radar to Ukraine to guard the skies (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-government-business-e38d0631cc5abadcf3a214366de679e2)
QuoteUkraine's defense minister said Wednesday that Ukrainian lives will be saved by a sophisticated air-defense radar that France is supplying and which is powerful enough to spot incoming missiles and exploding drones in the skies over all of Ukraine's capital and its surrounding region.
QuoteReznikov described the French-made GM200 as a "very effective" improvement for Ukraine's network of about 300 different types of air-defense radars.
Speaking of air defense, I missed this article back in December, so this is not exactly breaking news, but it's important:
Germany to send two Skynex air defense systems to Ukraine by 2024 (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-send-skynex-air-defence-systems-ukraine-handelsblatt-2022-12-09/)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyshield (each system is made up of 4 guns, 1 control node, and 1 radar, all mounted on military trucks, so they can move around as needed) Essentially, this is an autocannon that sprays drones with chunks of metal - basically like throwing fistfuls of rocks against a kite. Even if some or most rocks miss, some of them will hit their target and any damage is likely to be catastrophic.
Israel now considering sending its Iron Dome system to Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3663775-israel-considering-sending-iron-dome-air-defense-system-to-ukraine-netanyahu.html)
This is quite a reversal from its flat no months ago. Not a yes, though. But it is good that they're warming up to the idea. Though afaik, the Iron Dome is ineffective against supersonic cruise missiles, like the ones Russia uses, so it's not a silver bullet, but rather an extra layer of air defense.
Israel notably has experienced rising tensions with Iran, and the recent string of explosions in Iran targeting several military installations was likely carried out by Israel (https://www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-carried-out-iran-defense-facility-strike-for-israels-own-interests-report/). Naturally, Ukraine benefits from such action. And the enemy of my enemy...
Denmark to send 20 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine (https://armyrecognition.com/defense_news_february_2023_global_security_army_industry/denmark_plans_to_provide_ukraine_with_20_refurbished_leopard_1a5_tanks.html)
They plan to buy 20 refurbished Leopards from Germany company FFG, repair them, then send them to Ukraine.
(https://preview.redd.it/pmbmr6urjrfa1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=6276bbe22edf62af13e5bcac5d36f4885d67ca9a)
Not really news, just confirmation of what we already know: both interest in Russian arms exports and Russia's ability to supply them are cratering.
Because who wants to buy vehicles that'll end up getting smashed by US/NATO weapons? And there's no way Russia can fill many orders abroad and supply the domestic war effort. It's impossible. Hell, it's plausible that they redirected tanks meant for India and sent it to Ukraine instead (https://frontierindia.com/indian-army-t-90s-bhishma-tanks-may-be-fighting-in-ukraine-for-russia/). Reneging on deals, especially arms deals, doesn't exactly inspire repeat business. The world's 2nd largest arms exporter was already in decline and definitely isn't going to hold its rank for much longer.
Finally, I just want to point out that Russia's financial loss is a financial gain for the US and the EU. Someone has to fill that void, and if your gear is shown on countless videos smashing Russian tanks, well guess who gets the business? Everyone and their brother wants a Leopard now and will for years to come. The situation in Ukraine has many countries looking to upgrade their own arsenals. It's the opportunity of a lifetime.
Russia sends riot police to tend to conscript morale (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/2/7387600/)
EU doubles Ukrainian soldiers being trained, increases military aid (https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/eu-ramps-up-military-support-doubles-training-mission-targets-for-ukraine/)
Hmmm...I wonder which approach will succeed. 🤔
Well, surely riot police will do wonders for morale. 🧐
And even North Korea knows it (https://www.thedailybeast.com/even-north-korea-just-noticed-russias-war-in-ukraine-isnt-going-so-well)
North Korea was going to send workers to occupied Ukraine, but scaled back its plans after figuring out that the war isn't going too well and Russia can't promise that the occupied areas will stay occupied.
QuoteBut even the officials preparing the speech are said to be aware that they may be forced to drastically rewrite it if Russia suffers new setbacks on the battlefield.
If Ukraine conducts successful counter-offensives in the next couple weeks, two sources said, Putin's speech will have "more aggressive" rhetoric.
Oh no, not "aggressive rhetoric"! Anything but that! From the guy making nuke threats for months, psssht. Unless he's calling to say he personally surrenders, no one in the free world cares what this nobody says.
This counter-offensive stuff sounds interesting, but it'll almost certainly be on hold till the Leopards make their way to the frontlines, something like April at the earliest.
Germany to send 88 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine (https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-send-leopard-tanks-ukraine-russia-war-rheinmetall/)
I kinda wish they had rounded up to 90, but that's just the number they have. They also need to be repaired before being sent.
840 invader kia today
Russia is gearing up for yet another major offensive (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/3/7387718/) and hoping that this one will succeed where all the other ones have failed.
He plans to strike in March, roughly on the anniversary of the year-long 3-day special operation. This timing is interesting in that it comes just before the earliest tank shipments are expected for Ukraine, so presumably Putin expects to strike during a period of vulnerability. But Ukrainian forces are constantly receiving new equipment and coming back from training, so Ukraine is actually somewhat less vulnerable with each passing week. It is actually Russia who is getting weaker over time, and telegraphing its haymakers probably doesn't help.
According to ISW, Russia doesn't have the sort of manpower to achieve much and such an offensive will likely end by April. And increased Russian losses will yet again leave them spread thin and vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattack - this time with Western tanks/IFVs.
Portugal will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine (https://cnnportugal-iol-pt.translate.goog/guerra/ucrania/primeiro-ministro-anuncia-que-portugal-vai-enviar-tanques-leopard-2-a-ucrania/20230204/63de0fe10cf2665294d40570?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp). We just don't have an exact number right now.
Ukraine hacked into a teleconference between Moscow and collaborators (https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1621803146501554176)
The collaborators received a gentle knock at the door, LOL
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/rsFz_DvWOQs/mqdefault.jpg)
Russian forces are really struggling near Vuhledar (https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1621795537069527041)
Out of 8 vehicles, only the tank appears to be fully operational and a glancing blow from Ukrainian artillery (I have to be specific because sometimes they hit their own) ignites the back part of the tank. The tank hightails it out of there, dodging an incoming artillery shot, but the fire wins and it too is knocked out of action.
RT DE (Russian state media operating in Germany) shut down (https://insightnews.media/rt-the-russian-propaganda-tv-channel-shut-down-in-germany/)
Welcome back, Commander
Ukrainian forces deploy Delta (https://www.yahoo.com/now/ukraines-defence-forces-introduce-delta-144025914.html) (a situational awareness system which allows real-time coordination of troops)
This system has already been in use. For example, almost every unit that participated in the battles for Kyiv used it. I suppose the news here is that it is being significantly upgraded, as well as storing data outside Ukraine (parts unknown, but if I had to guess, Poland)
Oil depot catches fire mysteriously in Belogrod region of Russia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/oil-depot-catches-fire-in-belgorod-region-of-russia/)
It should be noted that a bridge-making plant nearby was also damaged and this site was where the bridge in Crimea was constructed.
Wagner POS who performed on stage with Ukrainian skull is himself shot in the head (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/05/wagner-linked-mercenary-who-claimed-have-originated-z-war-symbol/)
It was far from the frontline, so it might have been a fellow Russian. (edit - close range with a handgun, almost certainly Russian)
He's in the hospital right now, but things aren't looking good.
(https://i.redd.it/041jla1k8dga1.jpg)
The EU bans the import of refined fuels (like diesel) from Russia (https://time.com/6253071/eu-embargo-russian-diesel/)
Quotethe U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the U.K. — also decided to enact a global price cap of $100 per barrel on premium oil products, like diesel, and $45 per barrel on oil and fuel, to avoid an increase in gas prices that would impact consumers. The G7 agreement bars access to maritime services like shipping, marine insurers, and other services on any ships carrying Russian oil products unless they are purchased at the set price or below, NPR reports.
The U.S. federal government's other sanctions—including a full block of Russia's largest financial institution and private bank, a ban on any new investments in Russia by Americans—have effectively limited Russia's war supply, causing major shortages for semiconductors and a near stop to Russia's missile production, according to a factsheet from the U.S. Department of State.
The ban of Russian crude oil last year caused about a 46% drop (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/western-sanctions-push-russias-energy-revenues-lowest-level-since-2020-2023-02-03/) in Russian gas/oil revenues.
870 invader KIA today, plus 11 tanks and 10 armored vehicles.
Zelenskyy tweeted his condolences for the major earthquake in Turkey and readiness to send aid (https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1622482950456504320?s=46&t=s537EHaZSQceeVarKXSLrQ)
QuoteI extend my condolences to the President @RTErdogan, the people of 🇹🇷 and the families of those who lost their lives in the earthquake in 🇹🇷 and wish a speedy recovery to all the injured. We stand with the people of 🇹🇷 in this difficult time. We are ready to provide the necessary assistance to overcome the consequences of the disaster.
Apparently, there's footage of Wagnerites killing their commander in a spectacularly brutal way. High octane NSFL, so I won't be linking anything.
QuoteNear Bakhmut, Wagner mercenaries tried to advance, but their commander was wounded. Then the colleagues carried their commander behind the shed and hacked him to death with an axe.
I'd wager a guess that he had been doing a lot more than bad command decisions, probably some pretty bad stuff behind the scenes, too. Because I doubt garden variety bad leadership would warrant this sort of extreme reaction.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 06, 2023, 10:21:25 PMApparently, there's footage of Wagnerites killing their commander in a spectacularly brutal way. High octane NSFL, so I won't be linking anything.
I'd wager a guess that he had been doing a lot more than bad command decisions, probably some pretty bad stuff behind the scenes, too. Because I doubt garden variety bad leadership would warrant this sort of extreme reaction.
I would like to understand why this happened. I find myself speculating in too many directions and at a lack for closure.
We'll probably never know.
1030 invader kia today, 14 tanks, 28 armored vehicles 🎉
(https://i.redd.it/dticegtyeqga1.jpg)
Ukrainian forces are certainly busy! Not sure if those numbers are so high because of the failed advance at Vuhledar or because they've started the second attempt to push towards Kyiv.
(https://i.redd.it/7h79og9q9rga1.jpg)
Unrealistic objectives with subpar units. Well, that explains the high number of kia. This sort of top-down bungling really swings the war in favor of the Ukrainians.
If the Russians fought intelligently (combined arms, high degree of discipline and coordination, good logistics and training), this war would be very different.
Of course, for Russia to fight better, it'd also have to be very different politically and then, why would it fight this war at all?
This just goes to show that dictatorships are inherently inferior, since they fail at the one thing they claim they're good at. The narrative is that western states are decadent and weak but they have better supplies, better training, more motivated soldiers, a better ability to innovate and change tactics, and much more numerous and more helpful allies.
In short, dictatorships are only good for dictators.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 07, 2023, 10:28:32 AM(https://i.redd.it/7h79og9q9rga1.jpg)
Unrealistic objectives with subpar units. Well, that explains the high number of kia. This sort of top-down bungling really swings the war in favor of the Ukrainians.
If the Russians fought intelligently (combined arms, high degree of discipline and coordination, good logistics and training), this war would be very different.
Of course, for Russia to fight better, it'd also have to be very different politically and then, why would it fight this war at all?
This just goes to show that dictatorships are inherently inferior, since they fail at the one thing they claim they're good at. The narrative is that western states are decadent and weak but they have better supplies, better training, more motivated soldiers, a better ability to innovate and change tactics, and much more numerous and more helpful allies.
In short, dictatorships are only good for dictators.
Some have supposed that a dictator would be better for cohesion and quickness of action. That does make make sense intuitively, yet it's not what we see in real life dictators. Turns out it might not be best to entrust an entire country to one man. Even in the best of possible scenarios, there's a common phrase that applies. Jack of all trades, master of none.
Putin has certainly been decisive. He decides on the wrong action very, very quickly.
And I dunno about cohesion. A recent Preun video went over it more thoroughly and eloquently than I could hope to, but essentially dictatorships - whether they're under Putin or Hitler, can't allow the military to be unified and politically powerful enough to depose the dictator. The solution? Break up the military into different competing factions so none of them are strong enough to revolt alone, and there's constant rivalry so they're unlikely to team up and this bickering allows the dictator to act as peacemaker between them. It works, sort of (while the dictator is still alive) but it's horribly ineffecient and uncoordinated.
Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands will supply Ukraine with a total of 178 Leopard 1 tanks (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-07/germany-denmark-netherlands-to-send-kyiv-178-leopard-1-tanks)
(https://i.redd.it/ebmulr68yjga1.jpg)
Just a VDV commander who retired as a major general coming out of retirement to lead a motorized regiment. (https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1622553591134273538) Totally normal /s
(very seriously not normal, and speaks to serious lack of junior officers)
Zelenskyy visits UK (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-64566248)
QuotePlans have been announced to train Ukrainian pilots to fly Nato-standard fighter jets in the future, a key request from Ukraine.
The UK also announced a fresh wave of sanctions against Russia, this one includes IT companies (Russian IT infrastructure is largely dependent on Western companies) and manufacturers of drones and helicopters (shoulda been done months ago, imo)
Also, Leopard tanks from Canada and Bradleys from the US are both now in Europe. So this isn't a will-they-won't-they situation. They're on their way, and there ain't a foxhole deep enough or a cope cage strong enough to hide from them.
Ukrainians return 126 kidnapped kids back to Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/8/7388387/)
After the war is over, I'd tack on $1 million dollars of reparations per kidnapped Ukrainian and allow the confirmed safe return of each Ukrainian to pay off each million. Russia obviously doesn't have a lot of money to spare, so this would incentivize freeing them from captivity.
I just hoping that, if Ukraine folds, there isn't any technology capture by the Russians. Meanwhile, I really hope they "win". Fending off the invasion is only a small piece of it. I'm curious how reparations will be enforced.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 05, 2023, 02:15:38 PMWagner POS who performed on stage with Ukrainian skull is himself shot in the head (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/05/wagner-linked-mercenary-who-claimed-have-originated-z-war-symbol/)
It was far from the frontline, so it might have been a fellow Russian. (edit - close range with a handgun, almost certainly Russian)
He's in the hospital right now, but things aren't looking good.
Update: he's dead. (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64566582) The guy was part of some Neo-Nazi group. Good riddance.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on February 08, 2023, 10:38:23 AMI'm curious how reparations will be enforced.
I'd tie it to lifting sanctions. Doesn't matter if Putin dies or if the marauders return to Russia, if they don't pay Ukraine to rebuild, sanctions stay indefinitely. And returning people is part of the rebuilding process.
Western countries have all the leverage and we should use it to ensure that Ukraine gets all the help it needs to get back on its feet.
China to EU: Drop calls for Ukraine's 'complete victory' (https://www.politico.eu/article/drop-idea-complete-victory-ukraine-china-eu-volodymyr-zelenskyy-fu-cong-xi-jinping-russia/)
(https://tolkiengateway.net/w/images/thumb/9/95/The_Lord_of_the_Rings_-_The_Motion_Picture_Trilogy_-_Mouth_of_Sauron.jpg/320px-The_Lord_of_the_Rings_-_The_Motion_Picture_Trilogy_-_Mouth_of_Sauron.jpg)
Quotetoeing Xi's line, Fu said the "security concerns of both sides" — Ukraine as well as Russia — should be taken care of.
Splendid. Both parties should peacefully return to their own borders, then?
QuoteFu also dismissed the comparison between Ukraine and Taiwan, both of which face military threats from a nuclear-armed neighbor.
Apples and oranges still have many similarities...
Man, the combat footage from near Vuhledar is insane!
A group of Russian tanks and armored vehicles got the HIMARS treatment between drone strikes and artillery. The infantry tried to take cover behind the tank, but I guess they kind of forgot that drones can drop bombs from behind as easily as in front. And bunching up like that tends to not work very well when it comes to explosions. The last footage shows a repositioning APC unintentionally dragging an infantryman behind it. Yikes. Definitely took a morale hit on that one.
I'm describing it in this level of detail to show just how brutal and demoralizing these failed assaults are for the Russians. They lose valuable equipment and lots of soldiers in truly horrific ways on a daily basis. And because this engagement was so long-distance and asymmetric (artillery and drones VS tanks and infantry) it's unknown if the Ukrainians had any casualties at all in that engagement. Definitely the right way to wage a war of attrition.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 09, 2023, 11:21:09 AMMan, the combat footage from near Vuhledar is insane!
A group of Russian tanks and armored vehicles got the HIMARS treatment between drone strikes and artillery. The infantry tried to take cover behind the tank, but I guess they kind of forgot that drones can drop bombs from behind as easily as in front. And bunching up like that tends to not work very well when it comes to explosions. The last footage shows a repositioning APC unintentionally dragging an infantryman behind it. Yikes. Definitely took a morale hit on that one.
I'm describing it in this level of detail to show just how brutal and demoralizing these failed assaults are for the Russians. They lose valuable equipment and lots of soldiers in truly horrific ways on a daily basis. And because this engagement was so long-distance and asymmetric (artillery and drones VS tanks and infantry) it's unknown if the Ukrainians had any casualties at all in that engagement. Definitely the right way to wage a war of attrition.
Unfortunately, I don't think battlefield deaths and wounded carry much political power in Russia, especially with all the rural, poor soldiers, the mercenaries and criminals that they are using. Plus, many Russians believe they are truly 'fighting Nazis' to save the motherland.
The survivors will be in bad shape...combat solders learn how shitty humankind really is and once that curtain has been lifted, they can't unlearn that lesson.
Yeah, there are reports of Muscovites rejoicing at high casualties of people from rural areas or convicts, claiming that Russia is "cleaning itself" (nazi-esqe ideals of racial purity on full display). What they seemingly don't realize is who'll be next on the chopping block after they run out of those mobniks.
And yes, Putin sacrifices those people on his altar of war precisely because there's little-to-no pushback. But that won't work indefinitely, after this latest push, he'll likely have to start sending young men from Moscow and St Petersburg. And then this cheering for war will suddenly stop and we'll hear tear-filled pleas for peace. Too little, too late.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 09, 2023, 02:29:47 PMYeah, there are reports of Muscovites rejoicing at high casualties of people from rural areas or convicts, claiming that Russia is "cleaning itself" (nazi-esqe ideals of racial purity on full display). What they seemingly don't realize is who'll be next for on the chopping block after they run out of those mobniks.
I've never understood this mindset, and yet it's one that repeats time and time again.
"First they came from the socialists..." or, "Hey, let's hire these ethnic minorities to guard the border of our Empire! What's the worse that could happen... wait, why is Rome on fire?" both feel like they apply here.
The US also relies on the poor for at least enlistment. I know it worked for me. Rich people don't have to send their sons off to war. The difference here is that by and large the poor are from every bit of the US, as opposed to just some parts.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on February 09, 2023, 07:26:00 PMThe US also relies on the poor for at least enlistment. I know it worked for me. Rich people don't have to send their sons off to war. The difference here is that by and large the poor are from every bit of the US, as opposed to just some parts.
That did lead to an increase in Hispanics and African Americans being over-represented as Enlisted members around the start of the War on Terror anyways (don't know about before), but I would agree/argue that it was more to do with class specifically (with race playing a factor in that)... whereas in Russia it literally is just, "Get these disgusting Asian yokel trash and send them to die.".
We at least armed our minorities, gave them training and a fighting chance...
Right. Recruitment is typically disproportionately among the poor/rural in most countries. What Russia has done (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/10/21/where-are-russias-newest-soldiers-coming-from) is a tad different, deliberately targeting and essentially depopulating regions with high minority numbers while leaving Muscovites largely alone. It's basically genocide with plausible deniability.
There was a lot of news today and I'm not even sure if I caught all the big news items:
* Zelenskyy made his way to Brussels (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-politics-france-government-european-union-9ea8e33ad7520cac6fc1b1d8a420d429), addressed the European Parliament in person
* Rheinmetall (German arms manufacturer) in talks with Ukraine regarding potentially sending Panther tanks to Ukraine (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/rheinmetall-in-talks-to-supply-ukraine-with-panther-battle-tanks?)
* Rheinmetall is also in talks about possibly building a tank factory in Ukraine (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1623702920641368066) (obviously, this wouldn't even be considered if a Russian victory was in the cards)
* Portugal to send 3 Leopard 2A6 tanks to Ukraine in March (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/portugal-will-hand-over-three-leopard-2a6-tanks-to-ukraine-in-march/)
* the UK is considering sending Harpoon anti-ship missiles or surface-to-air Storm Shadows to Ukraine (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-prepared-to-use-british-missiles-to-strike-crimea-d73rlk23p), Kyiv vows that it would use long-range missiles to strike deep into occupied territory, including Crimea
* Wagner allegedly stops recruiting prisoners (https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-group-stops-recruiting-prisoners-145013600.html) from Russian prisons because most refuse, thinking it suicide (statistically, this is nearly always the truth)
* Ukrainians reveal Russian plot to carve up Moldova (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/zelensk-ukraine-intercepted-russian-plans-to-destroy-moldova-b1059241.html)
* In the Kharkiv region, the Ukrainians destroyed a Russian helicopter with artillery (https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/artylerysty-znyshhyly-rosijskyj-mi-24/) (it was landed)
* first visual confirmation of a destroyed Terminator BMP:
That music *chef's kiss*
Drones are a big game changer even though they can't be that hard to jam. I see drone vs drone dog fights in the near future.
There already was one. A Ukrainian drone slammed into a Russian drone, knocking it out of the air.
Kremlin orders bomb shelters to be upgraded across Russia (https://www.newsweek.com/kremlin-upgrading-russia-bomb-shelters-amid-fear-attack-ukraine-war-1779318)
They wouldn't need to fear bombing if they weren't bombing others.
Russia's cope with the Vuhledar disaster is that the Ukrainians staged a fake battle with captured Russian gear, LOL
Quite an expensive and convincing fake, and it sure was nice of the Russians to let them drive from known Russian positions.
I suppose there won't be any funerals or death announcements in Russia since no Russian troops were lost, huh?
Russian offensives experience slight difficulties (https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/02/03/a-lunar-landscape-with-residents-who-hate-us)
QuoteAccording to the source, Russia's generals are ready to turn tens of thousands of their own servicemen into "mincemeat" at the behest of their superiors. At the same time, he said, the generals aren't taking into account any of the obvious risks this kind of maneuver carries.
"The Ukrainians get absolutely accurate information about all of our movements from Western intelligence agencies," he said. "Amassing enough forces in a particular area without exposing them to strikes from [Ukrainian] HIMARS and long-range artillery is impossible."
QuoteAs a result of the attacks, we end up getting a lunar landscape [i.e. the area is potmarked with artillery strikes, making it resemble the surface of the moon] with the remnants of a population that hates us, rather than inhabited settlements. Enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups operate in the occupied territories. They stab you in the back, plot the land for the artillery, mine the roads, take prisoners. In circumstances like these, holding the front can only be done at the cost of enormous losses," he said.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiPC5rhWYAAEElR?format=jpg&name=medium)
1140 invaders eliminated yesterday (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3668710-ukrainian-defense-forces-eliminate-1140-russian-invaders-over-past-day.html) (new record!)
(https://images.dailykos.com/images/1160833/large/330789843_882054273046746_4968694732310677358_n.jpg?1676123464)
(https://i.redd.it/kc6zcsddkkw81.jpg)
Cheapskate Dictator: Widows of cruelly-sacrificed Russian mobniks receive fur coats in exchange for their loved ones' lives - only for them to be snatched back (https://www.businessinsider.com/widows-of-russian-soldiers-were-gifted-fur-coats-2023-2?amp)
Institute of War Assessment for 2/11 (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2023):
QuoteRussian forces' reported culmination and tactical failures around Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, have likely further weakened the Russian ultranationalist community's belief that Russian forces are able to launch a decisive offensive operation. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces failed to quickly advance in the first days of their offensive to capture Vuhledar and that Russian forces had lost the initiative by the end of January due to Ukrainian forces' rapid transfer of reserves to the area. The milblogger made his assessment that the Russian offensive to capture Vuhledar has likely culminated in response to viral footage showing Ukrainian forces destroying a disorderly column of Russian mechanized forces in the Vuhledar area. Russian milbloggers seized on the footage to criticize the Russian military command for repeating the same failures that have plagued the Russian military throughout the war in Ukraine, with one prominent milblogger arguing that such incidents illustrate that the Russian army is unable to conduct an offensive along the entire Donetsk front.
QuoteThe disparity between the limited but significant Russian advances in the Bakhmut area and the lack of meaningful advances elsewhere in Ukraine may support milblogger and Ukrainian observations that Russian forces are unable to secure rapid advances through traditional mechanized maneuver warfare.
QuoteISW has observed limited footage of Russian tactics in areas separate from the Bakhmut effort that suggests that Russian forces are engaging in more traditional mechanized maneuver warfare tactics with regular, not elite, motorized rifle, naval infantry, and tank elements. All the formations so far observed were rendered combat-ineffective in earlier phases of the war and have very likely been reconstituted with mobilized personnel. The Russian military appears to have been unable to prepare its mobilized personnel to conduct effective mechanized offensive operations in the short period of time since their call-ups, as ISW forecasted.
FNGs reinforcing previously shattered units, not enough time to meaningfully train for combat. What could go wrong?
900 invader kia today (13 tanks!)
(https://preview.redd.it/a8e56oayprha1.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=9bef2e36f4fea31f152d2c2138dd0f31353ab02d)
Frogfoot croaked: Advanced Russian plane shot down over Bahkmut (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/defenders_of_ukraine_shot_down_next_russias_attack_aircraft_in_bakhmuts_sky_on_saturday_video-5719.html)
And with a manpad, no less. I wonder what'll happen when Ukraine gets Western jets...
Perun raises an interesting point in that drone videos are usually heavily edited and show only victories. On the other hand, a particular technique might be so successful that they intentionally don't release footage because that would run the risk of the enemy learning how to counter it. That said, it's awfully interesting that there are no videos of the US-donated phoenix ghost drones (kamikaze drones intended to strike armored targets). Of course, we don't know for sure why such videos are not forthcoming and it could be for a variety of unexciting reasons, but it is interesting in itself that this addition to the battlefield had a lot of fanfare and then just flew under the radar (pun intended?)
All in: Denmark sends all 19 of its Caesar artillery to Ukraine (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/19-caesar-howitzers-denmark-already-084733688.html)
This slightly more than doubles the amount of Caesars in Ukraine, raising the total to 37. 12 more are expected from France.
Three explosions reported in Mariupol, at least one Russian base hit (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/13/7389064/)
Russian plans for a coup attempt in Moldova foiled by Ukrainian intelligence (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-intelligence-helps-prevent-an-overthrow-in-moldova/)
Russia sure seems fond of interefering with other countries' elections, and instigating coups in particular.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 13, 2023, 10:29:12 AMRussian plans for a coup attempt in Moldova foiled by Ukrainian intelligence (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-intelligence-helps-prevent-an-overthrow-in-moldova/)
Russia sure seems fond of interefering with other countries' elections, and instigating coups in particular.
To be fair, America hasn't been much better. We've put many a bloodthirsty dictator in charge of other countries.
Quote from: Blackleaf on February 13, 2023, 11:53:42 AMTo be fair, America hasn't been much better. We've put many a bloodthirsty dictator in charge of other countries.
Yes, and that's horrible, too.
Basically every foul deed Russia has done or attempted to do has been done by others in the past. But it's not like anyone can go and commit a crime and use "other people do it" as a defense.
No shelter here: Bangladesh bars 69 Russian ships from its territorial waters (https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/national/bangladesh-bars-entry-of-69-russian-ships-after-us-eu-sanctions-1676287485)
QuoteThe government of Bangladesh has imposed restrictions barring the entry of 69 Russian ships into its maritime waters in line with US and EU sanctions. This means that Russian vessels will not be able to bring in shipments of imports, stop for fuelling, anchor in the area, or even use sea routes.
QuoteAs a result of these new sanctions, Bangladesh will find it difficult to conduct any trade with Russia.
Bangladesh's most expensive mega project, the Rooppur nuclear power plant, is being built with the support of Russia. A significant portion of the equipment and materials for that project is imported from Russia. Recently, a shipment from Russia carrying materials for the project was barred from entering Bangladesh's maritime boundary amid diplomatic pressure from the US.
Now would be a good opportunity for the West to aid Bangladesh and finish that project.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 13, 2023, 01:50:58 PMNo shelter here: Bangladesh bars 69 Russian ships from its territorial waters (https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/national/bangladesh-bars-entry-of-69-russian-ships-after-us-eu-sanctions-1676287485)
Now we be a good opportunity for the West to aid Bangladesh and finish that project.
I don't know if nuclear reactors in a country expected to be underwater and the site of the largest climate change displacement in the next few decades is the best idea, to be fair - sounds like Russia might have helped built it there for precisely that reason.
Still, good on them for listening and barring Russians, even if it's just because they are too weak to resist American influence.
I don't know enough about the proposed nuclear project to comment on its soundness, but I sincerely hope that we don't experience the worst case global warming scenario, because there's a ton of important stuff near the coast in a lot of countries.
And I wouldn't phrase it like they're being coerced into going along with sanctions on Russia. Doing business with the most sanctioned country on the planet next to North Korea isn't very smart for long-term business (countries typically want stable business partners). It makes a lot of business sense to prefer the West over Russia, especially with Russia's economic woes.
After crushing Vuhledar defeat, Russian HQ nearby leveled by HIMARS strike (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/13/russia-ukraine-invasion-vuhledar-himars-strike-separatists/), killing at least one Russian officer
QuoteA Himars rocket strike has destroyed the headquarters of a pro-Russian separatist battalion near the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar.
Alexander Khodakovsky, the Vostok battalion's commander, wrote on the Telegram app that at least one Russian officer had been killed in the Ukrainian strike.
The separatist battalion has been involved in the months-long attempt to capture the coal-mining town of Vuhledar, in the Donetsk region, losing "5,000" troops in an attempt to take it.
QuoteDozens of videos have emerged of haphazard attempts by Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to cross minefields, turning wide-open countryside into a graveyard of abandoned and destroyed armour.
One video clip shared online showed a Russian tank driving into a minefield and exploding, almost instantly followed by an infantry fighting vehicle that was also destroyed.
QuoteMr Dmytrashkivskyi said: "The 155th brigade already had to be restaffed three times. The first time after Irpin and Bucha; the second time they were defeated near Donetsk – they recovered again. And now almost the entire brigade has already been destroyed near Vuhledar."
NATO planning an additional increase in ammo production (https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-nato-plans-to-increase-ammunition-making-capacity/a-64704156)
Purportedly taken and translated from a Russian telegram post:
(https://preview.redd.it/ss3qrxs4ecia1.jpg?width=566&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=fe258ef925b86a63c2665b7e155a492a070a295e)
Note that Russia has reportedly been using ammo held in long-term storage (some may be 40-years-old (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/burning-through-ammo-russia-using-40-year-old-rounds-us-official-says-2022-12-12/)) and Russia may have also purchased ammo from North Korea.
Cut off from prisoner-recruits, Wagner is on the decline which will in time lead to it being unable to carry out major advances
More than 100 Ukrainian troops in Poland for training on Leopard 2 Tanks (https://www.voanews.com/a/ukrainian-troops-in-poland-for-training-on-leopard-2-tanks-/6964818.html)
55 Ukrainian troops in Spain for training on Leopard 2A tanks (https://www.infodefensa.com/texto-diario/mostrar/4179521/ejercito-tierra-instruira-zaragoza-55-militares-ucranianos-carro-leopard-2a4)
Are you feeling it now: Poland to double Krab production (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/poland-will-double-krab-acs-production/)
Up from 50/year to 100/year
Another busy day (1-2 battalions wiped out daily!)
(https://i.redd.it/nru283kezvia1.jpg)
France secretly supplied Ukraine with Missile Moyenne Portee ATGMs (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1626643989720956928), also known as Akeron MP. These ATGMs have a range of up to 4 kilometers, operate on the "fire and forget" principle, and can also hit a tank from above.
I only came here to do two things: train on Bradleys and wipe out vatnik squads. And I'm all out of training material: Ukrainian forces starting to finish training on the Bradley (https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/feb/17/pentagon-first-ukrainian-troops-finish-training-us/)
The Ukrainians are still clearing out nearly perfectly straight trenches.
Fun fact: firing a .50cal down a straight trench is a very easy way to clear it.
US formally accuses Russia of crimes against humanity (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/02/18/kamala-harris-u-s-russia-crimes-against-humanity-ukraine/11289769002/)
They have been knowingly bombing children, torturing children, and abducting children in a way that meets the UN definition of genocide, so yeah, they're beyond war crimes territory and definitely into crimes against humanity territory.
With training complete, France sends AMX-10 RC (recon/tank destroyer) to Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3671136-france-sends-first-batch-of-wheeled-armored-vehicles-to-ukraine.html)
14 in the first batch, more coming later on
Russia loses another T-90M tank (https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1627339128130920448/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1627339128130920448¤tTweetUser=bayraktar_1love)
Wagner appears to be having trouble getting ammo (https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1627623132528779264)
Which is weird, because Russia has plenty of small-arms ammo. Apparently, falling out of favor in Moscow is having an effect, since Wagner gets most of its gear through the Russian military (because mercenaries are illegal in Russia, the Russian military "loses" the equipment, which somehow finds its way to Wagner forces)
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/1024/cpsprodpb/4306/production/_128685171_bidenvisit-hero2-getty.jpg)
QuoteThe military aid package will include artillery ammunition, anti-armour systems and air surveillance radars "to help protect the Ukrainian people from aerial bombardments," he said.
"Freedom is priceless. It is worth fighting for as long as it takes. And that's how long we're going to be with you, Mr. President. As long as it takes," Biden told President Volodymyr Zelenskiy after talks.
Source (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-president-biden-visits-war-time-kyiv-ahead-invasion-anniversary-2023-02-20/)
It aint over till the Kremlin plays swan lake, but we're definitely most of the way through the war.
Navalny accepts Ukrainian borders (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3672623-navalny-changes-stance-on-crimea.html)
Not exactly breaking news or the sort of thing that hinges on one man's opinion (despite Putin's claims to the contrary) but it's important to have Russians who accept international norms. Who knows, they might be in power one day if something happens to the old and ailing Czar.
Surprise Biden Blast has vatniks seething (https://abc17news.com/news/national-world/cnn-europe-mideast-africa/2023/02/20/bidens-ukraine-visit-upstages-putin-and-leaves-moscows-military-pundits-raging-2/)
Quotethe visit caused fury in Russian pro-military and ultranationalist circles, as it upstages Putin on the eve of a major address
Quote"Biden in [Kyiv]. Demonstrative humiliation of Russia," Russian journalist Sergey Mardan wrote in a snarky response on his Telegram channel. "Tales of miraculous hypersonics may be left for children. Just like spells about the holy war we are waging with the entire West."
"I guess there are lunch breaks in a holy war," he said.
They are not tales for children. Children get much better entertainment, often with good morals. Putin's tall tales are not fit for children (who can see through them) nor animals (who were born lucky enough to be immune to such things), they are meant for human slaves to an evil empire that grinds them under yet paradoxically wouldn't last one day without their support.
Japan offers $5.5 billion in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, nearly quadrupling all its previous aid (https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/20/asia/japan-ukraine-war-aid-five-billion-intl-hnk/index.html)
QuoteLast summer, Kishida said in a speech that Russia's invasion gave warning that "Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow" – and he echoed that language Monday.
"Russia's aggression against Ukraine is not just a European matter, but a challenge to the rules and principles of the entire international community," he said.
Poland ready to send F-16s to Ukraine if US will restock them. Says US is intentionally dragging its feet on this (https://twitter.com/EeldenDen/status/1627774465164603392)
Failed Russian advance leaves 1 tank and 5 armored transports destroyed in neat little row (https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1628070603742752775?s=20)
Dictactor Putin plans to send students to meatgrinder (https://english.nv.ua/nation/mass-conscription-of-university-students-planned-by-russia-military-news-50305731.html)
Blasts in Crimea, Ukraine rumored to have a new type of missile (https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1628181170574790658)
Blast in Mariupol destroys Russian ammo depot (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3673362-russian-ammo-depot-destroyed-in-mariupol-at-night.html)
Medvedev: Russia will disappear if it loses war (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/22/7390425/)
QuoteIf Russia stops its special military operation [as the Russians call the war against Ukraine – ed.] without achieving victory, there will be no Russia, it will be torn apart.
Russia seemed to be existing just fine prior to warring against its neighbors, but if it wants to blunder its way into dissolution, I have no objection.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 22, 2023, 01:19:08 PMMedvedev: Russia will disappear if it loses war (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/22/7390425/)
Russia seemed to be existing just fine prior to warring against its neighbors, but if it wants to blunder its way into dissolution, I have no objection.
Don't threaten us with a good time, Medyedev.
I feel like that was intended as internal propaganda (i.e. meant for people who like Russia and would be devastated if it fell apart) and not meant for outsiders.
Because if they don't like people arming Ukraine, telling them that Putin will be dragged to hell if the West sends any more tanks is a pretty damn good incentive to send more tanks!
(https://preview.redd.it/x0zx4jynnvja1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=4db17f4edcddeb4d909c3ed1dfa39419886649b5)
16 tanks!
Send to meatgrinder, receive meat (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/22/7390470/)
QuoteThe administration of the Russian city of Vladivostok handed over sausage, canned food and pate to the wives of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.
QuoteThe Insider notes that the government agency later deleted the post for some reason.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 23, 2023, 09:02:05 AMSend to meatgrinder, receive meat (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/22/7390470/)
Russia's eternal strategy:'out-suffer' their opponents.
And their tactics might've worked 100 years ago, but running around a blasted no-man's-land stretching for several kilometers while drones and artillery are raining down, that's basically unsurvivable.
I mean, they tried everything from air assault (Battle of Hostomel Airport) to massed armored assault (Vuhledar) to massed infantry assaults (Bahkmut) to mass bombardment to barrel bombs. They even unsuccessfully tried a demo truck recently. They've even tried to beat the Ukrainians at the drone game. They've basically tried everything except combined arms at this point and nothing is working.
Due to shell shortages, Russians are currently using shells so rusted and deformed that they more closely resemble enchiladas (https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1628477870497562625?s=20)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpmDNbYWYAI-VNb?format=jpg&name=small)
That's not a joke or exaggeration. They literally resemble enchiladas. If I saw this picture on a menu, I would assume that they're low-quality enchiladas.
Methinks their earlier warning about Ukrainians sabotaging ammo left for Russians is just a face-saving lie to cover for the fact that their own shells are so deteriorated that they occasionally misfire and kill the gunner.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 23, 2023, 08:56:21 PMDue to shell shortages, Russians are currently using shells so rusted and deformed that they more closely resemble enchiladas (https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1628477870497562625?s=20)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpmDNbYWYAI-VNb?format=jpg&name=small)
That's not a joke or exaggeration. They literally resemble enchiladas. If I saw this picture on a menu, I would assume that they're low-quality enchiladas.
Methinks their earlier warning about Ukrainians sabotaging ammo left for Russians is just a face-saving lie to cover for the fact that their own shells are so deteriorated that they occasionally misfire and kill the gunner.
They do look better than the ones at local "El Chico's". Doesn't matter what you order, it all looks the same.
(https://preview.redd.it/hp7tlbto4yja1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=26df931207e9cad27646040df5626ab2130ac528)
Those things honestly don't look like they'd survive a sticky bomb, and that's WWII kit. Against a Leopard 2...it's like an actual leopard versus a dodo.
Speaking of Leopards, Sweden will be sending Leopard 2A5 tanks to Ukraine as part of its next aid package (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1628857232744906755?t=qKIU8PxMm0cuTUY5c-ZQtA&s=34)
We don't know how many, but they have 120 total, so pick a number between 1 and 120 for the time being.
Polish activists give Russian diplomats a wake-up call (https://mobile.twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1629031778403905536)
In Latvia, they put a destroyed Russian tank on display right across from the embassy.
(https://preview.redd.it/dvsycc60h4ka1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=620407e0a20c86dbbbcc65b0454689c7c74a0eac)
Berlin has one, too (https://twitter.com/ennolenze/status/1629010865964867584)
And in London, they painted the street blue and yellow (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/23/russian-embassy-london-ukraine-flag/) (Ukrainian flag colors)
Pro-Putin, pro-fascist march in Germany interrupted by circus music (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1628547864757510145) (act like a clown, get treated like a clown)
(https://preview.redd.it/2b2gvjgiw2ka1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=4526d0242e040748368a7c17d28a0be6ea63c78c)
Just barely shy of the 1000 mark, 13 tanks is a nice harvest
Before the invasion, the Kremlin built a vast network of collaborators. Most took the money and ran. (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-set-up-collaborator-web-vanished-after-ukraine-invasion-ft-2023-2?r=US&IR=T) Some reported it. Only a few stayed loyal to Putin and a lot of those have been arrested.
QuoteAccording to the FT, Medvedchuk tried to convince Putin that Ukrainians would welcome Russian forces — prompting Putin to send large amounts of cash his way in order to pay off local officials and build a collaborator network.
With that supposed wellspring of pro-Russian support in Ukraine, the Kremlin envisioned installing Medvedchuk as leader the moment Kyiv had fallen.
But none of this happened. Some of the paid-off collaborators assisted the invasion, and helped in the swift capture of areas including Kherson, in southern Ukraine, but most either disappeared with the cash or reported the plan to Ukrainian authorities, the FT reported.
Medvedchuk gives a lot of expensive advice. I bet he hopes that Putin doesn't resort to cost-cutting measures...
First Leopard 2 tanks arrive in Ukraine (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-02-24-23/h_1c693f4c5b4d5356abe6d7253893df9e)
(https://preview.redd.it/fbmm9ft0s5ka1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=a230e9319ea46d90b209bc33c370641a89061208)
More will arrive in the next 2-3 weeks as Ukrainians complete training
(https://i.redd.it/tldw9ztyn7ka1.jpg)
ISW anniversary update (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-24-2023):
QuoteThe Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and has not made significant territorial gains since July 2022.
QuoteDeputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev made inflammatory claims that Russia will win the war and reiterated that it is vital for Russia to achieve its goals to "push back the borders that threaten [Russia] as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland."
QuoteSelect Russian milbloggers commented on the Kremlin's silence on the first anniversary of the war. Russian former officer and an avid Kremlin critic Igor Girkin criticized Medvedev's statements as delusional and lamented the fact that no one remembers the severe losses Russian airborne troops suffered during the fight for Hostomel Airfield near Kyiv on February 24, 2022. Girkin claimed that he had long been forecasting that Russia had embarked upon a protracted and exhausting war. He noted that it is very difficult to defeat a state that receives external support using Russia's unmotivated forces, absent civil society, and strong brainwashing.
Looks like someone's going to fall out a window...
Nostradumbasses from a year ago:
(https://i.imgur.com/16NKnT0.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/Wbw10CC.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/CKJmFdU.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/5Ja8R0Y.jpeg)
Note that while some are explicitly affiliated with the Kremlin, a lot of this stuff is astroturfing - opinions that seemingly come independently from ordinary concerned citizens but in actually are following a script written by the Kremlin. Food for thought when you encounter seemingly bizarre opinions in the wild.
Btw, both Russian and Chinese state media lobbied to get that state media identifier removed from Twitter. I'll give you three guesses as to why.
Mariupol hit three days straight by Ukrainian forces, likely indicating new weapon (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13494)
The targets were out of HIMARS range, but Ukraine has been busy building new weapons and some secret weapons shipments have trickled in, so it's anyone's guess how the Ukrainians managed to strike a target so far from the frontlines. All we can say for certain is that no Russian invader in Ukraine is safe at any time.
QuoteUkrainian official Telegram channels said at least 11 or 12 blasts hit Mariupol airport, and two or three explosions on the premises of a steel mill.
QuotePetro Andriushchenko, exiled mayor of Mariupol, in a public statement said the strikes set two major aviation fuel storage sites on fire at the airport, and badly damaged Russian troop quarters at the steel mill. The Ukrinform news agency confirmed the strike locations, and the UNIAN news agency reported a military aviation ammunition storage site had been blow up.
First Supersoldiers, now Death Rays!
Spoiler: it's a conventional weapon. But tell the Russians that it's a low-orbit ion cannon strike anyway just to see them shake in their jackboots. Wunderwaffe or not, it clears groups of Russians from the battlefield in the blink of the eye. That's something they surely think about as they
march fast-meander to their doom.
Why NATO tanks are a game-changer:
Russia switches strats to attrition over land-taking (https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1629707599955329031?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet)
This would make sense with Putin's attempts to gear towards a protracted war.
Though this doesn't seem to be a particularly smart move since Russia is operating under a ticking clock - heavier sanctions and increasingly powerful military aid to Ukraine makes the Russian war effort increasingly difficult and costly. Russia has already lost most of its best and is struggling to replace its losses, usually with inferior conscripts and tanks. And of course, Russian forces have suffered far greater attrition than Ukrainian forces. Time is not on their side.
Given earlier operations, it's unlikely that Putin is a 4-D chess grandmaster but rather a poker player who can't fold without embarrassment, so he bluffs and continues on the best he can.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 26, 2023, 10:11:01 AMRussia switches strats to attrition over land-taking (https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1629707599955329031?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet)
This would make sense with Putin's attempts to gear towards a protracted war.
Though this doesn't seem to be a particularly smart move since Russia is operating under a ticking clock - heavier sanctions and increasingly powerful military aid to Ukraine makes the Russian war effort increasingly difficult and costly. Russia has already lost most of its best and is struggling to replace its losses, usually with inferior conscripts and tanks. And of course, Russian forces have suffered far greater attrition than Ukrainian forces. Time is not on their side.
Given earlier operations, it's unlikely that Putin is a 4-D chess grandmaster but rather a poker player who can't fold without embarrassment, so he bluffs and continues on the best he can.
I doubt Russia has the logistics to even mount a very large offensive. Trucks are in short supply and make for easy targets. They have been confiscating them from the general population. They rely on trains, so Ukraine has to keep hitting bridges and rail infrastructure.
Rail infrastructure is quickly and easily repaired, unfortunately. What Ukraine needs most of all is long-range missiles to strike at military bases and mustering points far from the frontlines to inflict enormous casualties and disrupt invaders before they get anywhere close to the frontlines.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 26, 2023, 10:55:33 AMRail infrastructure is quickly and easily repaired, unfortunately. What Ukraine needs most of all is long-range missiles to strike at military bases and mustering points far from the frontlines to inflict enormous casualties and disrupt invaders before they get anywhere close to the frontlines.
Yeah, that would help a lot, but I guess the politics is dicey.
Quote from: Cassia on February 26, 2023, 11:06:07 AMYeah, that would help a lot, but I guess the politics is dicey.
Which is insane because pissing off the genocidal dictator who is already occupied and at his most vulnerable is the least dicey situation possible.
The real problem imho is that our oligarchs hobnob with their oligarchs, so that's why they're dragging their heels and making whatever excuses they think will work.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 26, 2023, 02:40:37 PMWhich is insane because pissing off the genocidal dictator who is already occupied and at his most vulnerable is the least dicey situation possible.
The real problem imho is that our oligarchs hobnob with their oligarchs, so that's why they're dragging their heels and making whatever excuses they think will work.
Yep, like how Trump admires Putin and Kim. Trump doesn't like the pilots who got shot down, either.
pdf book, the russian way of war, 2016
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329934215_The_Russian_Way_of_War_Force_Structure_Tactics_and_Modernization_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces
Upon seeing a Ukrainian drone, mobiks abandon two tanks (https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1630137792377307138/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1630137792377307138¤tTweetUser=Tendar) (conveniently leaving the hatches open) which the drone subsequently destroys.
(https://i.pinimg.com/736x/53/8e/e2/538ee221c4756eda6b862a25e3a6aaa0--darkest-dungeon-moment.jpg)
Situation in Bakhmut is improving (https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1630159414706462720)
Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked north of Bakhmut, pushing the invaders back considerably
Still a tense situation, but not nearly as bad at it was. Imho, Ukraine is going to hold onto this town.
Mainstay no more: Partisans severely damage an extremely rare and expensive and important plane in Belarus (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13571)
The plane is a sophisticated surveillance plane useful for detecting aircraft, anti-air batteries, and other ground targets. Keeping this plane out of action helps keep Ukrainian air force and ground batteries safe. It also keeps Russia from launching new offensives.
The partisans responsible reportedly escaped the country successfully.
Tanks again: Poland will give Ukraine another 10 Leopard 2 tanks, as well as 60 upgraded PT-91 and T-72 tanks. (https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1630285063437836295)
Russia begs for weapons from Serbia, Serbia refuses (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3676017-serbia-refuses-to-give-russia-weapons-budanov.html)
What drones around comes around: Ukrainian drones strike several targets in Russia (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-attacks-drones-e02372ef4b84fc3b4cf6afe8ed141a77?)
One crashed just 100km (60 miles) from Moscow, uncomfortably close to the Kremlin, which deployed air defense in the area a month ago.
Running scared: Russian authorities in Kherson region fleeing the region in anticipation of Ukrainian counterattack (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-authorities-flee-ukraine-amid-fears-counteroffensive-1784087)
QuoteElsewhere in its Monday update, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces wrote that Russia's military is experiencing mass desertions, resulting in Russian commanders undergoing more efforts to keep soldiers from leaving their posts
Russia's sole tank factory (hope a drone doesn't hit it) produces only 20 tanks per month (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production-by-factor-of-10-report-2023), Russia sometimes loses that many in 2-3 days
Two months to live: Russian troops sent to Ukrainian frontlines likely die on average within 60 days of being deployed (https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1630692489840541699?s=46&t=vCxH3MPvhl07EB7vM7VYcg)
Things are looking bad in Bakhmut (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html), The Russians have continued to advance, and it looks like they might partially encircle the town and cut its last supply line, but the Ukrainians do have reinforcements coming, so it's still too early to call.. If the worst happens, Ukrainian forces will be forced to withdraw.
Bakhmut has been hanging in there for about 6 months now and despite it holding very little strategic value, the Russians have committed huge amounts of manpower to that hotspot. The Ukrainians have fought back valiantly, inflicting enormous losses, slowing the Russian advance to a crawl, buying time for other Ukrainian forces to train on Western equipment, and setting the stage for counteroffensives elsewhere.
Although Bakhmut holds symbolic value - a symbol of Ukrainian resistance - and a withdrawal there certainly wouldn't make for good headlines, it is just a small part of a vast frontline and ultimately won't change the course of the war. And with the current shape of the Russian military, Bakhmut would likely only be abandoned for a short time anyway.
For Ukraine, it will either hang on or it will be liberated not long in the future.
For Russia, the only two options are pyrrhic victory or exhaustive, ruinous defeat. Neither is particularly good, though I doubt ensuing headlines will highlight this fact - concerned only with who has what square km and not the big picture.
(https://i.redd.it/dd250vvs64la1.jpg)
"Those aren't abandoned, we just parked them temporarily!"
Hungary to approve of Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO (https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-733107)
QuoteHungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's ruling Fidesz party will support the ratification of Finland and Sweden's NATO entry, the parliamentary group of the party, which controls just over two-thirds of seats in the chamber, said on Wednesday.
Hungarian lawmakers began the ratification process for the Nordic countries' NATO entry earlier on Wednesday after a months-long delay, as the president and a government official called on them to swiftly endorse expansion of the alliance.
Don't get your hopes up too high, but there's good reason to be cautiously optimistic about Sweden and Norway joining NATO, even though it might take a while.
Russia loses another battle for Vulhedar (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/1/7391562/)
QuoteRussia has lost a large-scale tank battle for Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, getting ambushed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine — just as it did during the attack when using tank convoys at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Comparisons to the early part of the war are not flattering because - and this beggars belief - Russian tanks were often in parade formation, so ambushing the front tank would often put the whole unit into disarray.
Tank slayer: Ukrainian soldier personally destroyed 5 tanks in one day (https://www.businessinsider.com/video-ukraine-soldier-destroys-5-russia-tanks-in-day-mod-2023-3)
He also destroyed 3 armored transports. Supporting artillery destroyed 4 more of them.
In Russia, a military transport plane (Il-76) exploded, killing one and wounding others (https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-aviation-ulyanovsk/accident-at-russian-plane-factory-kills-one-injures-several-idUSKBN2V4117)
The Ukrainian account (https://www-dialog-ua.translate.goog/russia/269012_1677760511?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) is slightly more detailed than the short Reuters blurb, and contains this fascinating quote: "the deceased received injuries incompatible with life" (bear in mind that this is google translated)
A popular site for consumer drones used by Russia in its war of aggression has just blacklisted Russians from further drone purchases (https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1631326615668940800?s=20) and reduced the functionality of previously purchased drones
So potentially, there are a few very unhappy drone operators in Donbas right now.
Germany to send more Gephard anti-air and IRIS-T anti-air to Ukraine (https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1631303510066094084)
Russian combat deaths in Ukraine surpass all Russia's previous wars since WWII combined (https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukrainian-innovation-war-attrition)
QuoteRussia likely suffered more combat fatalities in Ukraine in the first year of the war than in all of its wars since World War II combined, including the Soviet and Russian wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya.
QuoteThe average rate of Russian regular and irregular soldiers killed per month in Ukraine over the first year of the war was at least 25 times the number killed per month in Russia's war in Chechnya and at least 35 times the number killed per month in the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan.
25x Chechnya and 35x Afghanistan. And Afghanistan was famously dubbed "the graveyard of empires"! Then Ukraine must be the wood-chipper of empires.
Sick to say, but I hope that the invaders continue to get shredded and that Ukraine ends up the victor...and collects reparations. Won't bring back the dead or displaced, though.
Every defeat puts future invasion plans on hold for longer and longer. And by now, it'll be a long, long time before Russia can credibly menace its neighbors again.
And with tank losses around 10 times the replacement rate, a year in Ukraine sets them back about a decade. I couldn't even begin to come up with a similar calculation for elite units.
If this continues much longer, Russia will be in the same boat as the North Koreans - nuclear saber-rattling to make up for a lack of conventional power.
Mobiks from Irkutsk describe being woefully unprepared (https://mastodon.social/@ChrisO_wiki/109958527554918270), appeal to Putin for help, ignored and then thrown into an even more dangerous assault
Quote"[We are] in close proximity to the front line without any training, equipment or support. Initially we were prepared as a territorial defence unit, but in fact we were thrown in as an assault group. We have already lost 19 wounded and two dead within two days.
QuoteWe are not receiving any pay, we eat and buy water at our own expense, we live in completely unsanitary conditions, we are treated by our own forces [for injuries?] at our own expense, they equipped us only with bulletproof vests of class four and a B2 helmet
QuoteThe men also sent a written appeal to Putin and the Russian military prosecutor's office. In it, they wrote that their commanders were threatening them with death for refusing to follow orders, and that DNR troops were refusing to evacuate the wounded because "they are afraid of losing their equipment."
Quote"When we are unable to carry out orders, death threats are received. As an example, they say: "You will be treated as a deserter, you will get in trouble with the commandant's office and the military police, we will disband you two by two and send you on an offensive from which you will not return."
Quotedespite all the appeals the men were sent into yet another likely failed assault
Moscow Wants Serbia's Explanation over (https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/3/7157310/)"Thousands of Rockets" to Ukraine (https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630679031078084611)
Apparently, the rockets traveled from Serbia to Turkey to Slovakia and then mysteriously found themselves in Ukraine
The likely explanation:
(https://preview.redd.it/rvo7b1c4uhd41.png?auto=webp&v=enabled&s=32e476366695f74ed0dc7f1a83177c9301e675e2)
Russia: we might invade from Belarus again
Ukraine: dare you to try (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-news-russia-war-belarus-invasion-preparation/)
Hahaha, Russian joke of a diplomat
Russian scientist who helped develop Russia's "Sputnik" covid vaccine found strangled to death with his own belt (https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-covid-vaccine-creator-found-163029094.html)
UK to send twice as many Challenger tanks, up from 14 to 28 (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/4/7392009/)
(https://i.imgur.com/G3cNrv8.jpeg)
At a pro-genocide pro-Russia rally, a speaker unexpectedly whipped out the Ukrainian flag and demanded more weapons to protect civilians (https://twitter.com/putinslies/status/1632067218036109318)
The Russians are probably going to throw everything they have at Western tanks, hoping to overwhelm them. And since Western tanks will not be operating with nearly as much support as they normally would, the Russians may succeed in destroying some, albeit at enormous cost. Ukraine will probably have to use Western tanks very cautiously at the beginning.
Though they can outrange Russian tanks, so depending on Russian morale, they might be able to inflict devastating first strikes, potentially causing nearby Russian tanks to flee.
Ukraine continues to hold onto Bakhmut (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/4/7392026/)
They've reportedly held their ground on both north and south positions.
(https://i.redd.it/oghs867xswla1.jpg)
Strat: assault with shovel. It's not very effective...
(https://i.redd.it/6qlbnwom1vla1.jpg)
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 03, 2023, 09:44:37 AMMobiks from Irkutsk describe being woefully unprepared (https://mastodon.social/@ChrisO_wiki/109958527554918270), appeal to Putin for help, ignored and then thrown into an even more dangerous assault
Update: they're almost all dead (https://news.yahoo.com/regiment-drafted-russian-soldiers-made-133656289.html) . Apparently, their fears were well-founded.
War sucks.
Putin doesn't see his soldiers as people, just pawns. He's so lost-he hasn't figured out that we're all a moment away from death, and you don't get to take this shit with you.
I vacillate between praying that he makes a miraculous change and ends the war, stops various humanitarian crimes, etc.... And also between his hastened death, though I would be concerned about what would happen then with the likely power vacuums..
QuotePutin doesn't see his soldiers as people, just pawns. He's so lost-he hasn't figured out that we're all a moment away from death, and you don't get to take this shit with you.
Even if you can, what brainwashed fools think that genocide and greed will get them into any heaven?
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - when Russia calls Moskva, "The Third Rome", we should listen - but people aren't ready to think about the implications that has for our own Roman-idolizing Western society.
Russia is the natural state of any people who idolize Roman ideology; we just took the slower country road and them the express highway.
Until the world is purged of these barbarian ideas, Western Romans and the Russian Cesars will never cease to oppress humanity.
I mean, it's possible to like some things about past cultures while disliking other things. I think most people would intuitively guess that Rome didn't get that wealthy through trade alone...
There are lessons to be learned from history and I think that a lot of people understand those lessons. Sadly, some people are further behind than others and those people are distressingly often in power.
Also, sometimes when countries go through crisis - they look back at the "glory days" and try to do it over again. It doesn't work that way and has never worked that way, so their efforts never yield the results they expect.
QuoteI think most people would intuitively guess that Rome didn't get that wealthy through trade alone...
You give most people far too much historical knowledge credit.
We live in a country where 30% don't know when the Holocaust happened; not even the war's name.
We live in a country where 55% don't know the casualties or that Hitler was democratically elected.
If we cant even teach World War II, an event with a small handful of people who lived through it still live in this country to this day... how can we expect anything further back to be accurately taught?
How many Americans do you think can tell you what even an "Anglo-Saxon" or a Norman is, or anything other than, "OH! 1066! Hastings!" despite being taught in school that these are two most important white groups to have ever existed (outside of Americans, of course)?
At least in America, people have the historical knowledge of a dried chewing gum wad - add ontop of that a society that worships the Romans as peak-civilization, who see Roman monuments any time they go into city or turn on their T.V. ...
No, the radicals I've seen have convinced me there are far too many cosplay-Romans who want to make it more than just a A S T H E T I C ... and we serfs don't have the luxury of assuming they are just cos-playing anymore.
QuoteAlso, sometimes when countries go through crisis - they look back at the "glory days" and try to do it over again. It doesn't work that way and has never worked that way, so their efforts never yield the results they expect.
Yep; those who refuse to learn history are doomed to repeat it.
Two invader bases in Melitopol struck (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3678603-armed-forces-of-ukraine-destroy-two-russian-military-bases-in-melitopol.html)
Possibly high deathtoll, though nothing is confirmed at this time.
Russian kludge: mounting a naval cannon on an armored transport (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/04/desperate-russian-forces-are-adding-80-year-old-naval-guns-to-70-year-old-armored-tractors/?sh=78ae9dc7112c)
(https://i.imgur.com/krlbH3bl.jpeg)
As the article correctly points out, the range is horrible against land targets, so it'd have to get nice and close (doubtful) and survive the engagement with its fairly weak armor (extremely doubtful). Suffice it to say that there are lots of reasons why naval guns are mounted on naval vessels and not other vehicles.
Do the Ukrainians have similar kludges? Yes. (https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1574802751959273472) But theirs are a lot more sensible, combining that same armored transport with an anti-tank gun to produce crude tank destroyers.
Bear in mind that they're the defenders and when your back is up against the wall, it makes sense to come up with some weird ad hoc stuff. But the Russians are the aggressors, so sporting the occasional bolt-action rifle from WWI, tanks from the 1960s, kludged air defense launchers modified to work as crude artillery, kludged naval turrets on armored transports, etc - all that speaks to an enormous lack of proper equipment, and that's on side that wanted war and was presumably prepared for it!
(https://i.redd.it/agp7efqw84ma1.jpg)
Russian brigade refuses to fight (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13859)
155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet stationed near Vulhedar. They were once the workhorse of the initial invasion, but have suffered tremendous losses to the point of almost being wiped out. They have been reconstituted with mobiks.
Quotethe 155th Brigade has been reconstituted as much as seven times since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. A once elite unit is now made up almost entirely of poorly equipped conscripts. The ISW adds: "The combat effectiveness of this committed formation is likely negligible."
QuoteRussian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has instructed his commanders to take Vuhledar at any cost which, for the 155th Brigade, would likely mean yet another incredibly costly offensive, with huge loss if life for little consequence.
The end result is an apparent mutiny in the works. A statement from a Ukrainian military spokesman said: "The leaders of the brigade and senior officers are refusing to proceed with a new senseless attack as demanded by their unskilled commanders - to storm well-defended Ukrainian positions with little protection or preparation".
Military analyst Oleg Zhdanov has reported that two "Cossack" Russian units, known as "Steppe and Tiger", had also refused to participate on the new offensive on the hilltop town.
Do ya feel lucky, punk?: Russia hesitates on Iran ballistic missile purchase, fearing consequences (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-hesitates-to-buy-ballistic-missiles-from-iran-as-west-warns-of-costs/)
Among those potential consequences is the US providing long-range missiles to Ukraine.
Israel has also expressed its disapproval of involvement with Iran. And certainly, Russia's attempts to recruit Palestinians for its war of aggression in Ukraine does not endear it to Israel.
QuoteAt the same time, officials admit that Moscow may change its position on Iranian ballistic missiles. This is due to a shortage of its own ammunition and a drop in domestic production.
According to the estimates of the sources of the publication, the stocks of guided missiles and artillery have halved.
"Russians are in a terrible situation. They need missiles," said one European official.
Ultimately, Russia may purchase Iranian missiles out of desperation. But then it'll have to contend with the consequences, and certainly the complete destruction of the Kerch bridge, among other things, will be devastating for Russia's already strained logistics and make holding onto the southern parts of Ukraine very, very difficult.
I really hoped I'd wake up today without witnessing a Nazi-esqe execution on social media, but here we are. :/
Everyone participating in this war of aggression, from the head czar to the lowliest mobnik, bears moral responsibility for what is happening in Ukraine. There should without a doubt be Nuremberg-style trials after this war is over.
Winged JDAMs now in Ukrainian hands (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/winged-jdam-smart-bombs-are-now-operational-in-ukraine)
Not knowing a JDAM from a HEAT round, I took the liberty of looking it up (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-21/boeing-to-provide-ukraine-long-range-version-of-gps-guided-bomb#xj4y7vzkg). Basically, it's a little kit used to convert unguided "dumb" bombs into guided bombs. A Ukrainian drone or aircraft fires one of these in the general direction of the enemy, and then it sails for the next 45 miles (72.4km) to the target and then BaBOOM!
Bottom line: expect previously untouched targets to suddenly burst into flame.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 06, 2023, 03:28:27 PMI really hoped I'd wake up today without witnessing a Nazi-esqe execution on social media, but here we are. :/
Everyone participating in this war of aggression, from the head czar to the lowliest mobnik, bears moral responsibility for what is happening in Ukraine. There should without a doubt be Nuremberg-style trials after this war is over.
If their goal was to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people, showing a video of a man dying both honorably and defiantly in the name of Ukraine probably wasn't the best move.
But from the Russian remarks I have seen translated - so take of that what you will - it seems like it was more just... they legitimately think this behavior is normal, "bad ass" machismo-ism.
I've now seen two Russians defend Russian corruption as a "strength" - it means the strongest man beats his way to the top, and thus the most qualified man for the job is there; and the guy will beat up all the people they don't like (gays, women, minorities) and get away with it, so that's a "plus" as well.
It's a strange cult.
(https://i.redd.it/8nrihpnya9ma1.jpg)
Back up to 4 figures! 9 tanks isn't bad, either!
Ukrainians return 307 abducted children (https://onlinemagnews.com/ukraine-children-occupied-territories/) and 130 POWs (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-returns-130-more-pows-154536157.html)
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 06, 2023, 03:28:27 PMI really hoped I'd wake up today without witnessing a Nazi-esqe execution on social media, but here we are. :/
Everyone participating in this war of aggression, from the head czar to the lowliest mobnik, bears moral responsibility for what is happening in Ukraine. There should without a doubt be Nuremberg-style trials after this war is over.
Sometimes people make me wish there was a Hell. Too many evil people spend their whole lives living in luxury, with little to no consequences. People like Putin should suffer.
I can kinda see why Putin thinks he's winning even as he's losing. At the start of the war, Russia had a huge advantage on paper. Attacking Ukraine from north, east, and south simultaneously. Superior numbers. Deep stockpiles. Even the ability to influence governments from Washington to Berlin. If all had gone according to plan...
But it didn't and much of Russia's power has proven to either be illusory or exaggerated. And nearly every assumption - from being greeted as liberators to Private Conscriptovich personally destroying 1,991 HIMARS with his trusty AK to successfully using energy/famine to push other countries around to using turncloaks like Matt "preteen" Gaetz to stop US support dead in its tracks have all been shown to be faulty assumptions.
Putin is waay over his head and isn't thinking irrationally - he's like a gambler at Vegas and thinking if he keeps playing long enough, all his luck will change, even as he's losing his shirt.
Ukrainian forces push invaders back somewhat near Bakhmut (https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1633326977015840768)
Still a tense situation.
(https://preview.redd.it/7q7ph4ufxmma1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=701227152e574dede6ba23a07d20cfec09cf5429)
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 06, 2023, 11:39:35 PMWinged JDAMs now in Ukrainian hands (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/winged-jdam-smart-bombs-are-now-operational-in-ukraine)
Not knowing a JDAM from a HEAT round, I took the liberty of looking it up (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-21/boeing-to-provide-ukraine-long-range-version-of-gps-guided-bomb#xj4y7vzkg). Basically, it's a little kit used to convert unguided "dumb" bombs into guided bombs. A Ukrainian drone or aircraft fires one of these in the general direction of the enemy, and then it sails for the next 45 miles (72.4km) to the target and then BaBOOM!
Bottom line: expect previously untouched targets to suddenly burst into flame.
Not trying to nit pick here, but do the Ukrainians have any drones capable of deploying JDAM's? As far as I know the only drone capable of deploying a JDAM is the MQ-9 Reaper. There was some talk a while back about maybe sending a few Reapers to Ukraine, but as far as I know that hasn't actually happened.
That being said the JDAM's will probably be deployed via conventional aircraft and not drones.
General Atomics offered to sell them two Reaper drones. And the Ukrainians are working on their own drones, including some that are fairly beefy as far as drones go. Since I couldn't rule it out, I tried to account for all possibilities, even though you're right that it'd likely be from aircraft.
(https://i.redd.it/seeg850huwma1.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/9949upi.jpeg)
Hmmm...well, this is a rather telling comparison. Definitely gave the game away that this is more of a Putin-style jackboot legislation than legitimate reform.
Plus, the Maidan Revolution was largely positive in the long-term, and is credited with removing a lot of corruption in Ukraine. As a result of this and several other things, Russia decided to invade. To say that this war has been hard for Ukrainians is an understatement, but we can safely say that we know who causes them such hardship. And while the war has devastated much of Ukraine, it will prove to be downright ruinous for Russia. Ukraine will be rebuilt with help from its allies, Russia has no such assurances. And Russia is currently in no position to threaten Georgia and might not be able to for quite a long time (especially if Georgians predict such a move and prepare, which could happen if they get tipped off somehow)
*edit - I suspected that this tweet was fake because it seemingly was too brazen and arrogant to be true. It's real. :/ A lot of the replies are quite witty comebacks highlighting Russian casualties, plus it's a goldmine of anti-Putin memes.
Japan considers sending weapons to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-may-acquire-japanese-weapons-as-japan-considers-export-options/)
Jeez, if it already wasn't enough of a zoo over there. They'll have Gundams before this is all over.
But seriously, Japan's not normally very aggressive on the world stage anymore, so this is a huge departure compared to how Japan normally does things. The reasoning for this change is interesting:
Quotethere is an opinion among Japanese politicians that the diplomatic authority of the country may suffer due to such a pacifist position. Japan is closely monitoring the situation in Taiwan, there are increasingly calls to support Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia.
Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called on lawmakers to change arms export rules. Expanded military exports "will become a key political tool to help countries that have been aggressed against international law," Kishida said.
"In case of unforeseen situations, we will have to ask other countries for weapons and ammunition, otherwise we will face their shortage. Do you think we can ask for [weapons] when we are in crisis if we don't give to other countries during their own crises?" Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Masahisa Sato said on Monday.
Faced with reckless foreign aggression, a pacifist position no longer makes moral or practical sense. Further, Japan itself could one day be such a target and rely on foreign aid so it is necessary to take a strong stand now to ensure that its allies return the favor in the future.
ISW: Wagner forces near Bakhmut appear to be "on pause" (https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1634036267808686081?s=20)
Wagner forces have taken a tremendous amount of attrition and are likely in poor shape and likely unable to perform the river crossing that would take them into the heart of Bakhmut. However, Russian reinforcements have been streaming in, including what's left of their airborne, which could take the initiative and begin fresh advances.
Mysterious fire consumes a Russian Su-27 aircraft stationed near Vladivostok (far eastern Russia)
Very fortunate that "concerned citizens" were nearby to record this mysterious, unexplained, and possibly supernatural phenomenon where Russian military hardware seemingly spontaneously combusts. Careless smoking, perhaps? I suppose we'll never truly know what really happened.
(https://i.redd.it/i120kyhrv1na1.jpg)
1k a day keeps the ruscists at bay!
Due to enormous apc losses, the Russians have started using antique BTR-50s (https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1628695296552144896)
These things were first made in 1954. And while some have been used in other countries over the decades, they're not meant as frontline units and definitely not for the sort of high-intensity warfare present in Ukraine.
The armor is between 7mm and 13mm, which I imagine is not particularly good.
Yeah, but what will Ukraine do about the mineshaft gap!?
😱
Ukrainian forces use bridgelayer to create supply line to Bakhmut (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/10/to-keep-open-its-supply-line-into-bakhmut-the-ukrainian-army-rolled-in-one-of-its-armored-bridgelayers/?sh=756814477224)
Poland on course to become Europe's largest and most powerful land power (https://news.yahoo.com/revolution-polish-army-builds-europes-121305829.html)
They've put 4% of the GDP towards defense and are going on a hell of a spending spree.
We're talking 1,000 South Korean tanks, 250 brand new Abrams tanks from the US, 18 HIMARS, 1,000 Polish IFVs, etc. They're also building fortifications along their border with Belarus.
Don't know that I'd want to buy South Korean tanks, in the current political state of affairs. NK and China rattle enough saber that I'll turn loose of my Kia after the warranty runs out (3 years). I'm already searching for another old vehicle that has parts I can buy not made there, and old enough that I know how to repair it. No CANBUS electronics, etc.
Quote from: Shiranu on January 21, 2022, 01:42:13 AMBiden has already told Ukraine and Russia that a "small incursion" into Ukraine will go unpunished, so my guess is that within the next few years Kyiv will be Russian occupied and within the decade as far as Lviv will belong to the Russians; this would also link Russia with occupied Moldova (Transnistra) and give them borders with most of their former vassals for future moves (or for influencing these more corrupt Comblock states' governments to be pro-Russia, like we've seen in Montenegro).
In hindsight a year later I too bought into the "Russia Number TWOOO!!!" propaganda.
Was still right about the Germans being P.o.S. , but America and several NATO countries really surprised me.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on March 11, 2023, 07:35:42 PMDon't know that I'd want to buy South Korean tanks, in the current political state of affairs. NK and China rattle enough saber that I'll turn loose of my Kia after the warranty runs out (3 years). I'm already searching for another old vehicle that has parts I can buy not made there, and old enough that I know how to repair it. No CANBUS electronics, etc.
IIRC, Korean arms manufactures will be developing factories in Poland as well so that might not be too big of issue for them.
Lithuania getting chip factories, Poland becoming the military of Europe, Ukraine just being Ukraine... Eastern Europe is quickly going from "second-world" to world-leading, for better and for worse.
Quote from: Dark Lightning on March 11, 2023, 07:35:42 PMDon't know that I'd want to buy South Korean tanks, in the current political state of affairs.
There's an hour-long Perun video about it that I've unfortunately mostly forgotten and in no hurry to rewatch. Suffice it to say that there are good but non-obvious reasons why Poland would want to buy tanks from South Korea.
(https://i.redd.it/lh4xyc0859na1.jpg)
Dozens of Russian troops sent to Ukraine without ammo with predictable results (https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1634677247448686592)
QuoteTraining turned out to be minimal. A wife says that that the men "played on their phones" for two weeks and had one session at a firing range where they shot ten blank rounds from a sniper rifle.
That makes sense as they expected to just be on guard duty. When they found out they'd be on the frontlines, they were a lot more interested in training. Still, they didn't get it and they were dumped in Ukraine without a clue of what they should be doing and without ammo, so it didn't matter.
Eventually, they were picked up in trucks already crowded with cargo, which drove slowly and close together on a dangerous road. Then HIMARS'o'clock happened.
So, their clock got cleaned?
Tipped off by Ukrainian Intelligence, Moldova foils Russian plot, arrest Wagner member (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/12/moldova-pro-russian-protesters-gather-amid-fears-of-orchestrated-violence)
QuoteMonths of rallies, organised by the party of the fugitive pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor, have been condemned by the government as a Kremlin-sponsored campaign to destabilise the country. The oligarch is believed to have fled to Israel after being convicted of involvement in the theft of $1bn (£830m) from Moldova's banks.
Israel is another country, amongst many, who need to purge their russian collaborators.
The Mossad has been dealing for decades with russians infiltrating the country and causing problems.
(https://i.redd.it/4x03i549fnna1.jpg)
Another day, another 10 tanks down the drain.
Russia is reportedly very low on T-72s now. Apparently, not a lot of the ones in storage were usable and most of the usable ones are now confirmed destroyed. The rest are split between unconfirmed destroyed or still in operation.
All Your Space Base: Kazakhstan seizes Roscosmos subsidiary facility (https://m.akipress.com/news:697352:Kazakhstan_seizes_property_of_Roskosmos_at_Baikonur_and_demands_$26_million_-_report/), demands $26 million debt to be paid asap, forbids head of company from leaving
Quotethe main reason for the arrest was incorrect behavior and harsh statements by new head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov.
QuoteMusin called Borisov's criticism a "diplomatic miscalculation".
Ukrainian defense industry starts production of 125mm tank shells (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukroboronprom-started-production-of-125-mm-tank-rounds/)
Production at unknown facility/facilities located outside the country
(https://preview.redd.it/wwqssy009pna1.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=d5f42a596b879b95a9cec03f1bbd337f4254d081)
And those shells previously categorized as unfit for use? Maybe they fire successfully. Maybe they're just duds. And maybe...just maybe...they explode in the barrel. Who knows? Give it a whirl, see whatcha get!
The Russians managed to intercept and destroy a Reaper drone located in international waters in the Black Sea not far from Turkish airspace.
It's not super important in and of itself and unlikely to escalate matters. Though it should also be noted that the Russian military - while it still exists - flagrantly uses force, often far away from its own borders. Such recklessness is seldom wise.
Muscovy forces deploy air defense in green spaces near Moscow (https://uawire.org/moscow-residents-outraged-as-russia-starts-cutting-down-trees-to-deploy-air-defense-systems-in-the-city)
Residents complain about trees being cut down, but complaints are ignored. (If complaints about people being cut down aren't heeded, I don't see why trees would be any different)
(https://i.redd.it/ukdnm1fjauna1.jpg)
Just shy of 1000
(https://i.redd.it/0e6tkxyfl1oa1.jpg)
Back up to 1000! 12 tank kills, too!
Also 13 drone and 17 fuel/misc vehicle kills, which could indicate substantial harm to their logistics. That or they nailed some old Ladas.
A whole Russian spy network dismantled in Poland (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64975200)
All 6 Russian operatives and 3 others were caught. They intended to disrupt aid to Ukraine.
(https://i.redd.it/bhyb8rbiq3oa1.jpg)
ISW: Russian assaults slow due to enormous losses (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-15-2023)
QuoteRussian offensive actions have decreased significantly over the last week and noted that daily Russian ground attacks have decreased from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day.
That quote is from a Ukrainian spokesman, so take it with a grain of salt. But ISW states that this is consistent with their own observations and that the "Russian offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast is likely nearing culmination if it has not already culminated".
Russia throws tantrum in response to new Canadian sanctions (https://m.jpost.com/international/article-734348)
They accused Canada of seeking regime change (not Canada's official position, but you know what? It's my official position. Humanity will never know true peace until the last dictator is strangled to death with the entrails of the last oligarch!)
They also accused Canada of backing Ukrainian nazis, LOL
(https://external-preview.redd.it/9SUnAVaFMR9yNs5fhwC8oVwob6ZBApoD-HbrN1OuTgA.jpg?auto=webp&v=enabled&s=6fa03e10beb4420294a56474c5712de3bfc0d495)
Mysterious fire engulfs Russian FSB building in Rostov (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64975202) (not far from the Ukrainian border)
QuoteRostov's regional governor said a short circuit appeared to have caused the fire, which ignited fuel tanks.
Lots of that happening lately...
(https://i.redd.it/uno2h1zxedoa1.jpg)
ICC issues arrest warrant for Dictator Putin (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrant-against-putin-over-alleged-war-crimes-2023-03-17/)
Not that I expect him to be behind bars tomorrow or anything, but it's a step towards Nuremberg trials for his cronies and a bunker suicide for Vlad.
"Bring on the MIGs"
Slovakia to send all 13 of its MIG-29 aircraft to Ukraine (https://news.yahoo.com/slovakia-send-entire-fleet-mig-110252447.html)
Dictator Putin introduces new laws further criminalizing criticism of special invasion operation (https://m.jpost.com/international/article-734733)
QuotePublic dissemination of 'deliberately false information' can result in prison sentencing of up to 15 years.
The Dictator also increased criminal charges on people illegally entering a state facility, no doubt due to a spate of mysterious fires at said facilities. Though I do note that the likelihood of getting caught is more of a deterrent than large penalties...
Apparently Ukrainian forces managed to steal a Russian tank (https://twitter.com/GeeDawg55975157/status/1637199484940632064?t=alyrb4AD60qt2hS1dn07FQ&s=19) by showing off a Javelin (not firing it, just making sure the Russians could see it), which caused fear-stricken mobiks to abandon their tank and run for their lives, and Ukrainian forces then captured the abandoned tank
"Scanning for enemy aircraft"Avenger anti-air now in service in Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/avenger-air-defense-systems-came-in-service-with-the-ukrainian-army/)
QuoteOwing to highly maneuverable missiles capable of self-targeting, a large-caliber anti-aircraft machine gun and a high level of automation, this system should become an effective and affordable means of air defense of Ukraine.
(https://preview.redd.it/nj58lbncphoa1.jpg?width=4096&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=293d4073fecf722ae0a8fdc3b3679ed51de254e9)
First Russia threatens the country sending military aid (I'd double it), then they say they'll destroy it immediately, then they say it doesn't matter, finally Private Conscriptovich gets his butt handed to him and Russia has to do another "partial mobilization" just to stay in the war.
(https://i.redd.it/ix6onjexxmoa1.jpg)
Russia loses 21 tanks (https://news.yahoo.com/700-russian-invaders-21-tanks-103600712.html)
21 tanks! I do believe that is a new record!
At this rate, the Leopards won't have anything to snack on. Maybe Kamaz trucks, but that's just junk food.
Dirty deeds done dirt cheap: Ukrainian loitering drones destroy two Russian air defense systems worth $50 million usd together (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_ram_ii_loitering_munitions_destroy_russian_tor_m2_systems_worth_50_million-6114.html)
Edit - some napkin math leads me to guesstimate that Ukraine spent anywhere from $400k to $500k on the loitering drones they used to destroy $50 million worth of Russian military equipment. So that's a roughly 1-to-100 ratio in purely economic terms. Not bad!
Hmmmm, isn't loitering against the law???
Sorry, slow Sunday.
Quote from: Mike Cl on March 19, 2023, 10:07:52 PMHmmmm, isn't loitering against the law???
Sorry, slow Sunday.
Only if the drone has a glass of vodka on board. 😁
(https://i.imgur.com/94XcoQl.jpg)
Russia sends unarmed troops in harm's way for sole purpose of digging trenches or carrying ammo (https://www.yahoo.com/news/unarmed-russian-soldiers-run-ukrainian-032259653.html)
Yikes, that's desperate!
And Russia has made miniscule gains using these sorts of tactics. We're talking meters, not kilometers. At this rate, Ukraine could have a space colony before Kyiv would be under siege.
Russian official threatens missile strike on the Hague (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394171/)
That would be an immediate Article 5 and pretty much doomsday for Russia, so it's an obvious bluff to (poorly) save face regarding the ICC's arrest warrant out for a dictator actively committing genocide and crimes against humanity.
But just making this sort of threat only justifies its necessity and further evokes this image of cartoonish villainy. Definitely something to bear in mind during the potential peace talks.
(https://i.redd.it/j6yabxld51pa1.jpg)
Just shy of 1000, but solid work.
Ukrainian attack on Crimea destroys Russian cruise missiles (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/21/russian-cruise-missiles-destroyed-in-crimea-blast-ukraine-says)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrxAcWgWcCIYhl2?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://preview.redd.it/basz3barxapa1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=75416779e48f9395e701f0d112433c8f219dc83e)
Anyone care to wager on them dusting off T-34s?? 😆
Just in case there was any doubt as to whether the 2014 conflict was a genuine secessionist movement or an invasion of unidentifiable Russian soldiers portrayed as the former:
War criminal Igor Girkin (the man who played a key role in the 2014 conflict and guilty in the court of law for shooting down a passenger plane, killing everyone on board) admits that the locals were forced at gunpoint to support the "rebellion" - i.e. it wasn't their idea (https://mobile.twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1638188154225061891).
(https://preview.redd.it/te4m5d6rc8pa1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=348f75b8d0172782893eea5616137158e24d3321)
I've been looking into why the Russian deathtoll is so high - apparently it's a combination of failed assaults, mostly in Bakhmut, and very precise drone/artillery strikes by the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian drone operators allegedly often use less powerful grenades to force the Russians to take cover together in this crude foxhole/tent thing they regularly make, then the drone hits them with the big grenade and it's all over. The Russians also have the unfortunate habit of sleeping very close together and apparently don't realize that Ukrainian drones can see in the dark. Very unfortunate.
The Russians, especially when fighting solo, tend to do some sort of Dark Souls-esqe roll when they sense a drone drop coming, with mixed results. Presumably, they're all trained on what to do when a drone comes their way, but they aren't given any equipment to effectively deal with the threat, so they deal with it as well as they can, which isn't great.
Sevastopol - the military heart of Crimea - under intense drone attack by sea and air (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-sevastopol-attacked-by-drones-from-sea-and-air)
The Russians say they repulsed the attack and no one was hurt and nothing was damaged except for some windows in a nearby building. Two Russian soldiers are credited with shooting down the drones with AKs (LOL) And If you believe that, I have an Armata tank with over 200 HIMARS kills to sell ya. What we do know for sure is that there was fire in the bay and civilian traffic is disallowed. Anything else is speculative.
Based on the available footage (very low quality and in very dark conditions, so take it with a grain of salt) we can construct a crude timeline:
QuoteThe first explosion was heard at about 4:30 and was not very loud.
At 4:46 a strong roar was heard in the central region of Sevastopol. From the shock wave in the apartments, windows and doors trembled, cars howled. At the same time, Sevastopol residents note that at the moment they do not see any smoke, they do not hear any sirens of special vehicles.
Three such explosions were heard with an interval of 10-15 minutes.
5:44 - A new explosion sound is reported.
5:53 - Sevastopol residents say that automatic bursts are heard in the city. It is believed that there is shooting at the UAV.
6:00 - shots and roar are still regularly heard in the sea bay. Sevastopol residents report that ships of the Black Sea Fleet are operating in the waters.
Smoke is nowhere to be seen above the city.
6:13 - the city is noisy again. It is reported about the active work of air defense.
Several explosions, small arms fire, activated air defense, and a fiery aftermath. Hmmm...
(https://i.redd.it/10fa41tiffpa1.jpg)
Not huge manpower losses (comparitively), but tank and artillery losses are high. It's very telling that an army whose tactics rely heavily on bombardment followed by massed tank assaults are getting both their artillery and tanks rapidly destroyed.
Ukraine says that Russian combat strength near Bakhmut is diminishing (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3686223-syrskyi-russians-losing-strength-near-bakhmut-ukrainian-troops-will-take-this-advantage-very-soon.html) and that they will take advantage of this to push them back as they did before near Kyiv and Kharkiv
This coincides with the Russians voicing fears that Ukraine will conduct a new counteroffensive near Bakhmut (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-isw-bakhmut-counteroffensive-1788799)
It's unclear when the Ukrainians will push them back, but it's now a matter of when, not if. The Russians no longer have the initiative and have squandered enormous amounts of troops and equipment for very little gain. And once this effort fails, it is not only devastating for already poor Russian morale, it makes further offensives next to impossible and thus makes Ukrainian victory a certainty.
US to send M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine by autumn instead of M1A2 Abrams by January (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-will-receive-m1a1-abrams-tanks-by-autumn-pentagon/)
I'm glad they're speeding things up, but this is a looong time to wait. The pivotal battles will likely happen in late spring or summer this year, so these tanks will definitely be late for the main offensive push. Depending on how that goes, they may or may not be helpful.
Leopards have been trickling in, as have Bradelys and the French AMX, the Marders are in transit and nearly arrived, and the Challenger 2 tanks - complete with depleted uranium - are expected to arrive by the end of March. Hopefully, that'll be enough to win these battles and the Abrams will be unnecessary.
(https://i.imgur.com/1QHSA1H.png)
I finally made it over to official Russia African propaganda channel... this... explains some of the poor takes I've been seeing from that continent; I'm curious what our uneducated youth are being exposed too and we are just in the wrong clique to be bombed with targeted propaganda...
Yeah, I caught a thread in the wake of the ICC ruling against Putin and it was filled with whataboutism and hatred towards Obama and Madeleine Albright and other Western figures, whether they were related to that ruling or not. Come to think of it, not a single one was a current head of state.
But the "spicy memes" followed an extremely familiar pattern of all attack, little-no defense, tu quoque accusations, and a "lying media" narrative that I imagine might be convincing to someone oblivious to the reality of the Ukrainian experience and already distrusting of politicians (coincidently, only the center-left ones) and the media.
Very, very familiar stuff that could've just as easily come from Fox News or InfoWars, but this stuff came from Russians. I wonder how much of the apparent disgust for center-left politicians and policies is genuine and how much is deliberately manufactured.
(https://i.redd.it/87rzkvc7pmpa1.jpg)
Back up to 1000
(https://i.redd.it/0crt6ih51mpa1.jpg)
Can't lose with that sort of quality training!
Kind of a slow news day, so did you guys know that the Ukrainians are really into soup (https://etnocook.com/10-best-traditional-ukrainian-soups/)?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr_OYJ7X0AIySnQ.jpg)
A people after my own heart. Also, soup is the best way to feed 100 people with $10 worth of food. Keeps you hydrated and warm, too. Excellent choice.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 24, 2023, 07:47:56 PMKind of a slow news day, so did you guys know that the Ukrainians are really into soup (https://etnocook.com/10-best-traditional-ukrainian-soups/)?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr_OYJ7X0AIySnQ.jpg)
A people after my own heart. Also, soup is the best way to feed 100 people with $10 worth of food. Keeps you hydrated and warm, too. Excellent choice.
I'd venture to say that the Ukrainians sent people who were possibly their best, and certainly highly motivated. Soup? As long as it has lots of stuff in it, sure. Though I can certainly see where they want some warmth.
They're just following the National Wartime Nutrition Program. 🍲
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/8b5rIFci5vs/maxresdefault.jpg)
Join or Die: Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark combine airforces (https://www.businessinsider.com/norway-sweden-finland-denmark-fighter-jets-one-fleet-2023-3)
Ukraine's Dnipro river now guarded by six Defiant 40 patrol boats (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/dnipro-river-now-guarded-by-40-defiant-patrol-boats/)
I know what you're thinking. And yes, I also hope that one of them is named Sisko.
Two Russian spies arrested in Slovenia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/foreign-intelligence-agents-of-the-russian-federation-detained-in-slovenia/)
(https://i.redd.it/aco7k5t0l0qa1.jpg)
15 tanks!
Northern Macedonia to send 12 Mi-24 helicopters to Ukraine (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1639891772695347200?s=19)
Northern Macedonia will receive replacement helicopters from the West
Ukraine destroys electronic warfare vehicle (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-military-hit-the-russian-r-330zh-zhitel-ew-system/)
Specifically, this one jams radio/GPS/cellular signals, so getting rid of it should help both military and civilian communications in the area.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 26, 2023, 09:16:01 AM(https://i.redd.it/aco7k5t0l0qa1.jpg)
15 tanks!
You're welcome! 😎
Half of Putin's army is dead or out of action (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/14881)
Out of a grand total of 800k troops (either part of the initial invasion or recruited afterward) about 420,000 have been killed or wounded to the point of being out of action.
166,570 Russian troops KIA
499,700 wounded (including 150,000 still getting medical care and 100,000 permanently disabled)
Turkish parliamentary committee approves Finland's NATO bid (https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/03/turkish-parliamentary-committee-approves-finlands-nato-bid)
It's not a done deal yet, it still has to go to the general assembly, but this is a step in the right direction.
Mysterious explosion destroys Russian commander's car in Mariupol (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3687876-russian-commanders-car-blown-up-in-mariupol.html)
And nothing of value was lost.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnREBbaX0AwbqwW?format=jpg&name=small)
At long last, I'm pleased to announce that Ukraine now has Leopard 2 tanks (https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/27/7158731/)
They are now in theater and could be in combat as we speak. I can currently only imagine how a Leopard 2 fares against a T-55 (my bet is on the Leopard, lol) but it might not be long until such a matchup is uploaded to the internet.
Mysterious explosions in temporarily occupied Melitopol (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-security-forces-building-damaged-by-the-explosion-in-melitopol/)
Quoteeyewitnesses saw the invaders running out of the building in their underwear.
(https://i.imgur.com/mQimldB.jpeg)
Ukrainian troops finish training on Challenger tank (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/ukrainian-troops-return-home-after-challenger-2-tank-training-in-uk?CMP=telegram_guardian)
A russian missile struck a farmhouse in rural Ukraine - the missile was filled with various kinds of Russian propaganda leaflets. Evidently, they lack the means to scatter them or to correctly aim them towards population centers.
Twitter did its thing and published photos of Russian propaganda. VERY IRRESPONSIBLE. Like broadcasting Mein Kampf during the holocaust. *sigh*
Since the damage has already been done, I might as well summarize - one of them incorrectly blames the US and EU for the outbreak of war (the Ukrainians know damn well where the incoming missiles came from) and exhorts the Ukrainians to put aside their differences with Russia (who caused these "differences"?) and join the Russians against their mutual enemy (one look at Mariupol demonstrates the truth value of that)
For some reason, the Russians hold themselves blameless for destruction they directly caused, which is something that should be rectified in the inevitable peace settlement after Ukraine pushes the invaders out of its territory.
They also accused the US/EU of prolonging the war through the intentional export of "old" gear. Counterpoint: 1) Leopard 2 tanks are current tech. 2) The US developed a brand new type of drone specifically for Ukraine, and HIMARS isn't exactly bargain bin stuff! 3) If it's true that Western gear is too old, then let's give Ukraine the top shelf stuff. ATACMS, F-35s, subs, aircraft carriers, that alien battleship under Area 51, etc. Wildly unrealistic, I know. But still, it is such a shame that Ukraine is in fact getting some old (maybe not T-55 old, but old by Western standards) gear.
They can have the old stuff, afaiac. Giving up the latest tech isn't going to happen, methinks. They are getting "good enough", given how the Russians are getting trashed by it.
"Good enough" is cold comfort when your people are dying and your cities bombarded. A firmer commitment would end the war faster and save lots of lives. The Ukrainians have surely noticed this. If the situation were reversed and my life and the lives of everyone I know literally depended on it, I would certainly want the best gear as well. Such reluctance, often dubiously supported if at all, no doubt irritates Ukrainians and gives the Putin regime good cause to say that Western support is tepid, even though this is far from the truth.
I disagree. The US shouldn't be in the business of providing top of the line military equipment to any other country that doesn't have certain agreements in place (and is not in that business). That top of the line equipment costs billions in R&D, and that money will never come back if the equipment is donated.
Challenger tanks arrive in Ukraine (https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1640419664818782222?s=20)
Afaik, at least some of all the types of vehicles promised to Ukraine have arrived except for the Abrams tanks, which is expected during the fall.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 28, 2023, 01:54:24 AMChallenger tanks arrive in Ukraine (https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1640419664818782222?s=20)
Afaik, at least some of all the types of vehicles promised to Ukraine have arrived except for the Abrams tanks, which is expected during the fall.
Of Moscow?
Bulgara to "secretly" resupply Ukraine with ~$190 million usd worth of soviet ammo sold to intermediaries (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/28/7395351/)
The old ammo will be replaced with new ammo.
Quote"This is an amount of ammunition that can turn the tide of the war in some directions on the Ukrainian front," Noev added.
QuoteA few days ago in Brussels, the president announced that Bulgaria will sell arms and ammunition to other European countries on the condition that they will not be sent to Ukraine, despite the parliament's decision in mid-December that the army would send military aid directly to Ukraine.
If the ammunition is sent from the army to the military plant and then exported through intermediaries to Ukraine, Radev can continue to tell his supporters that Sofia is not helping Kyiv.
Hmmm. Sneaky.
France to double artillery shells sent to Ukraine, from 1000/month to 2000/month (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/france-will-double-the-supply-of-ammunition-to-ukraine/)
(https://i.imgur.com/VwXvBAi.jpg)
(Meme made by me)
Putin regime resorts to fake staged video to stoke outrage, delete it after it's shown to be fake (https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-caught-red-handed-making-131358748.html)
A big tipoff was that the vehicle used in the video was only manufactured in Russia.
(https://i.redd.it/u0yrkudnnoqa1.jpg)
Though the situation is still tense, Russia is losing steam near Bakhmut.
Meanwhile, Russian activity along the southern front declines (https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1640658944635940864)
It has come under frequent Ukrainian bombardment recently, so it's possible that Russian logistics have been hampered to the point of not being able to supply their units with the necessary munitions to return fire as much as they used to.
It's also possible that this is an intentional lull as they brace for potential counterattack. A counterattack towards Melitopol is the obvious choice because it effectively cuts Russian-occupied territory in half and greatly complicates logistics for Russians in the Kherson region and Crimea.
Mark Hamill lends 'Star Wars' voice to Ukrainian air-raid app (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-star-wars-luke-hamill-app-08ec03bf1a2c9c0378857090079f00f9)
QuoteKYIV, Ukraine (AP) — "Attention. Air raid alert," the voice says with a Jedi knight's gravitas. "Proceed to the nearest shelter."
It's a surreal moment in an already surreal war: the grave but calming baritone of actor Mark Hamill, Luke Skywalker of "Star Wars," urging people to take cover whenever Russia unleashes another aerial bombardment on Ukraine.
Baritone?
I guess Hamill's voice has changed since puberty... 🤔
Either that or he's using the Force. 🖖
Would be better if he used the Joker voice.
(https://i.imgur.com/S6j7L14.jpg)
The trials after this war is over are going to be wild!
Russian pipeline mysteriously explodes, sparkling a large fire (https://nitter.net/Heroiam_Slava/status/1641175275575603206#m)
The fire site is close to the center of Russia, far from Ukraine.
You know how I criticized the Russians for building straight trenches?
Well, they built a nice and jagged trench, crammed it with troops, and then took a direct hit from Ukrainian artillery. Whether it's jagged or straight makes very little difference in that scenario.
So I guess I overemphasized the importance of the shape of the trench. Clearly, the biggest factor is whether or not a 155mm artillery shell is exploding within a couple feet of the trench.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 30, 2023, 01:19:35 AMYou know how I criticized the Russians for building straight trenches?
Well, they built a nice and jagged trench, crammed it with troops, and then took a direct hit from Ukrainian artillery. Whether it's jagged or straight makes very little difference in that scenario.
So I guess I overemphasized the importance of the shape of the trench. Clearly, the biggest factor is whether or not a 155mm artillery shell is exploding within a couple feet of the trench.
I saw that the Russians were sending T-55 tanks forward. Rolling coffins.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 29, 2023, 01:57:26 PM(https://i.imgur.com/S6j7L14.jpg)
The trials after this war is over are going to be wild!
Russia is now using sex to sell the war.
Quote from: SGOS on March 30, 2023, 09:28:19 AMRussia is now using sex to sell the war.
Maybe there will be even more mail order Russian brides available after all this. I worked with a tech who went all the way to Thailand to find a wife. He said it's not the fairytale he had envisioned.
(https://em-content.zobj.net/thumbs/120/google/350/bomb_1f4a3.png)
Russia stops shelling Ukraine from the Kinburn Peninsula because Ukrainian return fire keeps them off that territory (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/30/russians-stopped-shelling-south-ukrainian-cities-from-kinburn-peninsula-because-of-ukraines-fire-control-oc-south/?swcfpc=1)
(https://images.theconversation.com/files/499770/original/file-20221208-4774-qh64s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip)
The Kinburn Peninsula is strategically important because it's Russian-held territory closest to a lot of potential Ukrainian targets.
Man, there has been a lot of big news today!
Turkey clears Finland to join NATO (https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/30/europe/turkey-vote-finland-nato-membership-intl/index.html)
All 30 NATO countries have now approved Finland, so it's pretty much a done deal.
Did they bribe Turkey with silmiakki?
Any peaceful country bordering Russia should be in NATO. Putin seems to have a hunger for any country close enough that his rusty tanks and equipment can survive the trip. Maybe he thinks anything Hitler once lusted after is rightfully his.
50 Russian soldiers desert in occupied Luhansk Oblast (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/31/7395931/)
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 31, 2023, 05:11:50 PM50 Russian soldiers desert in occupied Luhansk Oblast (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/31/7395931/)
Even the second line of enforcers are incompetent.
I'm hoping that the Ukrainians are savvy enough to incarcerate them. At the rate the Z's are dying, it would be easier for them to surrender to get behind enemy lines and cause trouble. 😄
Why Russian satellites are failing the war effort (https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a43444628/why-russian-satellites-are-failing-in-ukraine/)
QuoteDuring the Cold War, Russia became the first nation to launch a satellite, and then a human being, into outer space. With more than 160 Russian satellites in orbit today, every Ukrainian city, tank, and howitzer should be exposed to the unrelenting gaze of orbital cameras.
But that's not happening on the battlefield. While Ukraine's military is reaping enormous benefits from commercial communications and photographic satellites, Russia is only getting meager rewards from its huge investment in military spacecraft, according to a Western expert.
"The Ukrainian army can use commercial systems to obtain images of any area in high detail at least twice a day in favorable weather conditions, whereas the Russian army can get an image of the same area approximately once in two weeks,"
Quote"Because of a lack of reconnaissance capability, Russia is not able to use its high-precision weapons in the planned way,"
Oof. That's basic stuff that even I know. You gotta locate the enemy before you can fight them.
During the Cold War, Russia became the first nation to launch a satellite, and then a human being, into outer space.
That was the USSR that included Ukraine, Poland, etc. Back then Ukraine was both a key industrial and agricultural addition to the Soviet state.
(https://i.redd.it/qx9ucxk4o9ra1.jpg)
That last line...❄️🥶
♪ The window, the window, the seventh story window...♫
Quote from: Cassia on March 30, 2023, 10:12:50 AMMaybe there will be even more mail order Russian brides available after all this. I worked with a tech who went all the way to Thailand to find a wife. He said it's not the fairytale he had envisioned.
(https://em-content.zobj.net/thumbs/120/google/350/bomb_1f4a3.png)
Don't think I've seen it mentioned here, but there is a disturbing amount of Russians on various porn sources (live and recorded) that I worry continues to fund the Russian war machine with western dollars.
(Only 90% joking) - If I had to take a guess, half of Russia's GDP probably comes from women selling their bodies.
It also tends to skew very violent and often with demonic imagery, which I'm not kink shaming... but in a country like Russia, it raises some pretty bright, red flags on how willing the girls actually are; this is a country that just a few years ago legalized domestic abuse, so...
Quote from: Shiranu on April 01, 2023, 06:50:14 PMDon't think I've seen it mentioned here, but there is a disturbing amount of Russians on various porn sources (live and recorded) that I worry continues to fund the Russian war machine with western dollars.
(Only 90% joking) - If I had to take a guess, half of Russia's GDP probably comes from women selling their bodies.
It also tends to skew very violent and often with demonic imagery, which I'm not kink shaming... but in a country like Russia, it raises some pretty bright, red flags on how willing the girls actually are; this is a country that just a few years ago legalized domestic abuse, so...
For years I stereotyped Russian women as "Babushkas", lol. All those WW2 films. From what I have seen more recently, they do have many, many model-type beauties who know they look good and want a better life.
Russia fails war goal of seizing Donbass by the end of March (https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1642380057057304576?s=46&t=Hsc1NEA8zwUu-UnKBhP8dQ)
Russia's goals have notably shifted over the course of the war - from attempting to capture Kyiv to attempting to capture a street in Bakhmut.
Apparently, if they take 10 feet in any direction, it prompts fearful headlines and Youtube videos with panicked expressions. And the fact that they lose something like 20k-25k troops every month is underemphasized in favor of maps highlighting territorial changes, be it a single street or an abandoned shed.
Ukraine hits repair base near Melitopol (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3690544-explosions-in-melitopol-affect-depot-used-by-russians-to-repair-military-equipment-mayor.html)
A previous strike destroyed the roof and caused damage to military equipment undergoing repairs. It also eliminated dozens of Russian soldiers in the vicinity.
We don't know the outcome of this strike, but we do know there were at least 6 explosions at the site today.
Non-sovereign Republic of Tuva to transfer 3000 horses to Putin's war of aggression (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1642369190932754438)
Zelenskyy in trouble!
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 02, 2023, 03:16:04 PMNon-sovereign Republic of Tuva to transfer 3000 horses to Putin's war of aggression (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1642369190932754438)
Zelenskyy in trouble!
Hey, soldiers' gotta eat something.
In St Petersburg, a mysterious explosion killed a notorious Putin propagandist during a "creative evening" at a cafe (https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1642567474628403201?cxt=HHwWgoCxzcuaycstAAAA)
Well, he certainly did some brainstorming.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 02, 2023, 03:37:03 PMIn St Petersburg, a mysterious explosion killed a notorious Putin propagandist during a "creative evening" at a cafe (https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1642567474628403201?cxt=HHwWgoCxzcuaycstAAAA)
Well, he certainly did some brainstorming.
Scatter brained. 🤷�♂️
He's existentially challenged...
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 02, 2023, 03:16:04 PMNon-sovereign Republic of Tuva to transfer 3000 horses to Putin's war of aggression (https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1642369190932754438)
Zelenskyy in trouble!
While I think the value of horses is unbelievably underrated on the battlefield... it ain't lack of horses that is costing russia.
Yeah, it's lack of sense.
Horse sense?
They are just gonna eat them.
(https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/6ZzLT2QhnrDRe8w-Na8x42k3wjE=/0x279:3500x2248/976x549/media/img/mt/2017/06/RTR3DSAD/original.jpg)
Quote from: Unbeliever on April 02, 2023, 05:28:30 PMHe's existentially challenged...
Possibly, he unknowingly did himself in.
He invited a bunch of people to his meeting. Someone brought a heavy (suspiciously heavy) statuette in a box. The security guy was concerned and wanted them to leave it by the door, but he personally waved it in. That's the story anyway, who knows what really happened.
Reading the Reuters article, I find Russia's reaction sickening. The Kremlin called it vile terrorism and blamed Ukraine for it - without the slightest bit of proof - using it as justification for further aggression. Specifically, to topple Ukraine's democratically-elected government.
They also say that the West's lack of condemnation of this attack while condemning Russia's ongoing war of aggression reveals double standards. Personally, I don't cry myself to sleep at night when mass murderers and their accomplices die, nor do I consider the two things to be remotely comparable. One is pretty clearly more evil than the other. My only regret is that it took too long.
As for double standards, the Kremlin is the world expert - actively attacking civilians and torturing whoever they can get their hands on, intentionally getting its own citizens killed in a pointless war and being bizarrely happy about that, yet crying crocodile tears when some Z-troglodyte who fucked around found out. If the Kremlin wants the world to care about Russian lives, perhaps they should start caring themselves.
I guess the guy was critical of the Russian strategy at times, so it could have been Russia. Or adding to that motive maybe a false flag assignation to make Ukraine look bad as well.
Quote from: Cassia on April 03, 2023, 12:20:47 AMI guess the guy was critical of the Russian strategy at times, so it could have been Russia.
Unfortunately, this is a normal, common thing in Russia - Russian propagandists seems to be "critical" of the regime - but only to a very mild extent. This gives people who may not completely buy Kremlin talking points someone who "tells it like it is" and vents their frustrations without actually being against Putin. Make no mistake, every single one of these people are staunch nationalists, anti-US/EU, and are ultimately in line with Putin's orthodoxy. Cause the people who aren't in line with Putin's orthodoxy get imprisoned or killed.
Not quite Darth Sidious levels of controlled opposition, but it's certainty an insidious way to funnel a range of viewpoints towards what is ultimately a singular agenda. It allows Kremlin propaganda to hold onto more people, both those who uncritically accept whatever the Kremlin says and those who gravitate towards "renegades" (actually pseudo-renegades) "critical" of certain strategies but nonetheless actually on board with whatever Putin wants to do.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 03, 2023, 12:46:21 AMUnfortunately, this is a normal, common thing in Russia - Russian propagandists seems to be "critical" of the regime - but only to a very mild extent. This gives people who may not completely buy Kremlin talking points someone who "tells it like it is" and vents their frustrations without actually being against Putin. Make no mistake, every single one of these people are staunch nationalists, anti-US/EU, and are ultimately in line with Putin's orthodoxy. Cause the people who aren't in line with Putin's orthodoxy get imprisoned or killed.
Not quite Darth Sidious levels of controlled opposition, but it's certainty an insidious way to funnel a range of viewpoints towards what is ultimately a singular agenda. It allows Kremlin propaganda to hold onto more people, both those who uncritically accept whatever the Kremlin says and those who gravitate towards "renegades" (actually pseudo-renegades) "critical" of certain strategies but nonetheless actually on board with whatever Putin wants to do.
The line is blurry, however. Since the guy didn't fall out of a window or accidentally poison himself, you are probably right. But then again, that would be pretty obvious. I would suggest that anti-Russian assassins can take advantage of that, LOL. In any event, Russian war bloggers should be cautious. It seems nowhere is safe for them.
Finland is officially part of NATO (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65173043)
Kremlin officer responsible for providing encrypted communications to Dictator Putin flees Russia, provides valuable intelligence to the West (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/04/member-of-kremlin-guard-flees-russia-details-putins-secret-life-a80699)
QuoteOver the course of an hour-long interview, he shared details about Putin's habits, family and health.
Karakulov said Putin still does not use smartphones or the internet and demands that Russian state-run television be available on his foreign trips.
(https://i.redd.it/1ay71o0ysxra1.jpg)
"Sounds like a good reason to join NATO"
"No, don't do it or there will be consequences!"
"Like what?"
*silence*
Ukraine trains 40k soldiers for counter-offensive (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-trains-40000-storm-brigade-troops-counter-offensive-2023-04-05/)
These troops are fresh, not unlike the Russian conscripts we've seen lately, but the similarities end there. They've been properly trained and presumably properly equipped, with intact supply lines, good morale, and decent leadership. I expect them to fare well alongside Ukrainian vets who have completed top-tier training in NATO countries.
When the counter-offensive happens, I expect already worn-down Russian units to lose ground like they did in Kharkiv. The Russians have been doing a lot of digging, and so they're likely to either dig-in or flee as other options are eliminated. We've seen the results of each choice already, and so I expect more of the same.
What I am not sure of is exactly how much panic will spread through Russian ranks and how they will react. They could hold their ground for a while or they could break very quickly. Difficult to predict.
If I were a bettin' man my money would be on "break very quickly." 🥸
I'd love to imagine that as well, but if they broke like that all the time, this war would be long over. They've been taking territory and holding onto it for the most part - Kharkiv offensive and Kherson offensive notwithstanding. Though with the last real offensive at Bahkmut stalling out, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the tide is turning. Russian telegram channels have been panicking about the upcoming counteroffensive. If Russian soldiers are similarly scared, they will likely rout.
Let's hope the tide is turning - into a tsunami! 😎
Poland to supply Ukraine with 24 more self-propelled mortars (https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1643853048941367297?s=46&t=Hsc1NEA8zwUu-UnKBhP8dQ)
If the Russians hope to dig in to survive the coming counterattack, they better dig deep!
As the "beat" generation used to say, I can dig it! ⛏️
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Melitopol again (https://www.wsj.com/articles/blasts-hit-russia-controlled-city-in-ukraine-a48cf659)
QuoteThe exiled mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said a Russian base near an airfield was struck. Russian-installed occupation authorities in Melitopol said air defenses shot down six missiles fired by U.S.-supplied M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System or Himars. Western military analysts have said that Himars rockets probably can't be intercepted by Russian systems.
Russia says that they shot down HIMARS rockets. They also say that Putin is a man of peace.
QuoteThe timing and target of Kyiv's anticipated military push is closely guarded, but analysts say a thrust south to Melitopol makes strategic sense because it could break through Russia's land bridge and restore Ukraine's access to the Azov Sea.
It's the obvious choice. I'd be shocked if the main thrust of the upcoming counterattack were in any other direction.
QuoteAfter months of grueling combat in and around Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin—the leader of the Russian paramilitary Wagner group that is spearheading the assault—said earlier this week that he had raised a Russian flag near the strategic town's city hall. Ukrainian forces are still present in the western part of the city, he said.
The very definition of premature victory. And celebrated there because he knows full well that he's not getting to the western part of the city.
QuoteRussian forces are facing several issues, including ammunition supply, protecting their flanks and organizing their command structure.
I read about this earlier. Apparently, the Russian forces near Bakhmut are having problems with 1) having enough manpower 2) having enough ammo 3) having competent leadership.
Now, I know I don't know much about military matters, but I'm reasonably sure that troops, ammo, and leadership are like 90% of what a military is. If you're lacking one, you're in trouble. If you're lacking two, you're pretty much up shit creek. If you're lacking three, you should just surrender immediately because it's hopeless.
QuoteRussia's defense minister has said the city is an important defensive hub for Ukraine, and that capturing it would allow Russian forces to continue advancing in the broader eastern region of Donbas
At this point, it holds more symbolic value than strategic value. And it would certainly make for a catchy headline. And yes, wrapping things up would free up what forces they have left for more incursions. But it is a loooong way from Bakhmut to Kyiv and the daily territory changes read like this: today, the enemy took a shed, yesterday they took a gas station, the day before that, they took part of one street. Going from Bakhmut to anywhere important would be a nightmare.
QuoteWithout providing evidence, the governor, Alexander Bogomaz, said on Telegram
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/027/242/vault.jpg)
No evidence + Russian source = automatic BS
Ukraine announces a friendly competition to make a drone that could theoretically make it to the Red Square and land there
(https://mil.in.ua/en/news/competition-for-uavs-to-land-on-red-square-announced-in-ukraine/)
No reason, just curious. Nothing to worry about at all. Wink wink.
I just read in my news feed (from Business Insider) that some Mig-29s, en route to Ukraine, were sabotaged. Only the parts that were worked on by the Russians were fucked with.
Have y'all heard about that? I don't know how to post it here from there, using my phone.
🤔
Bad news today :(
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtFuC7_XwAIMfY1?format=jpg&name=small)
Some of the Mig-29s Slovakia donated to Ukraine have malfunctions (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/defense-minister-of-slovakia-russians-may-have-damaged-the-mig-29s-to-be-handed-over-to-ukraine/), possibly due to Russian technicians. We don't necessarily know if it was intentional or not, but nevertheless "mistakes kept appearing in places only they had access to"
(https://i.redd.it/bt300esy7nsa1.jpg)
Russia's attempts to bombard the power grid to trigger blackouts in order to force peace has failed.
Suffering among the general populace did not translate into a desire to capitulate to Russian denands nor displeasure with Zelenskyy.
Moreover, Ukrainian infrastructure proved to be incredibly resilient - due to both heroic efforts by Ukrainian power workers and an influx of replacement parts and portable generators from the international community. Often, power was restored mere days after the terrorist bombings occured (these are terrorist attacks by the textbook definition of the word - an intentional attack on civilian population in order to sow terror and fear in pursuit of a political goal)
30 Ukrainian kids abducted by Russians return home (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-returns-31-children-russia-after-alleged-deportation-2023-04-08/)
(https://preview.redd.it/xa61sti4upsa1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=4fceba101d8014fbbeec95fa837b7217ed20f343)
Putin's Wagner mercenaries tried to purchase weapons from Turkey (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/wagner-pmc-tried-purchasing-weapons-in-turkey-us-intelligence-documents-leak/)
Unsuccessfully, it appears, but still very worrisome. It would definitely be strange for a group supposedly at war with NATO to buy arms from a NATO member.
Also, the President of Mali reportedly was willing to buy arms from Turkey on Wagner's behalf, like a drunkard's friend buying whiskey from the bartender and then sliding it to his friend after his friend had been cut off. Mali better not ask for international aid in the near future.
Russia loses elections for three UN committees (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-un-lost-elections-95b7078b7e0b86ea1d2cc17726a6db3b)
Commission on the Status of Women headed by Romania
UNICEF -> Estonia
Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice -> Armenia and the Czech Republic
Egypt planned to secretly provide Russia with munitions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/egypt-weapons-russia/)
QuotePresident Abdel Fatah El-Sisi in February planned to produce 40,000 rockets for Russia and instructed officials to keep production and shipment secret 'to avoid problems with the West'
Suffice it to say the secret part didn't work out so well, and now there are problems with the West. Also happens to be a major recipient of US aid...
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 11, 2023, 01:05:14 AMEgypt planned to secretly provide Russia with munitions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/egypt-weapons-russia/)
Suffice it to say the secret part didn't work out so well, and now there are problems with the West. Also happens to be a major recipient of US aid...
I'm not sure why Egypt would want to help Russia
Who knows. Though I have noticed that countries which favor authoritarianism over democracy in their own politics tend to at least tacitly support Russia (an authoritarian regime) over Ukraine (a democracy). Strong democracies strongly favor Ukraine, weak democracies weakly favor Ukraine, etc.
As such, Ukraine serves as a litmus test for attitudes towards democracy generally and a flashpoint in the larger struggle between democratic norms and authoritarianism.
Quote from: SGOS on April 11, 2023, 08:00:10 AMI'm not sure why Egypt would want to help Russia
Kickbacks to government officials.
GRU officer defects to Ukraine (https://english.nv.ua/nation/gru-officer-defects-to-ukrainian-side-war-news-50316914.html)
He's just finishing up forming a battalion of Siberian volunteers to fight for Ukraine against Muscovite invaders.
Quote from: SGOS on April 11, 2023, 08:00:10 AMI'm not sure why Egypt would want to help Russia
The Arab world has a long history of teaming up with the most anti-Semitic, Nazi-esque governments they can find - they have a lot in common, to be fair.
Two countries in the world with Jewish leaders is two countries too many.
(https://api.time.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/mufti.jpeg)
"An enemy of my enemy..."
(Grand Mufti of Jerusalem & Hitler, 1941)
The latest video the orks shared has me on the edge of committing a stupid choice.
No, I won't explain - if you know you know, and if you don't... seriously, you are better off.
Yeah, it's horrifc. Russia is essentially ISIS with a permanent UN seat. Seating Russia should be as unthinkable as seating ISIS.
Ukraine needs to get whatever it wants asap to keep these monsters at bay.
At least I can take comfort in the fact that Russia is no longer making real advances, so their opportunities to abduct, torture, and kill Ukrainians is waning.
Always a bigger fish: Ukrainian hackers break into emails of Russian hacker who meddled in USA's 2016 election (https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-hackers-say-they-have-compromised-russian-spy-who-hacked-democrats-2023-04-11/)
Russian Soldier: "We are like hobos here. Abandoned puppies"
https://twitter.com/ColonialPresent/status/1643790302484873216
A century and a half ago, a day ago... some things never change amongst the filth.
Quote from: Shiranu on April 11, 2023, 07:14:10 PMThe latest video the orks shared has me on the edge of committing a stupid choice.
No, I won't explain - if you know you know, and if you don't... seriously, you are better off.
Everyone in that video has now been identified. It might be take a week or it might take a decade, but everyone who was there will be found.
Czech Republic to restore 30 retired T-72 tanks back to working order, send them to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/czech-republic-announces-plans-to-restore-t-72m4cz-tanks-for-military-use/)
The tanks were retired due to lack of parts, but parts have been recently acquired, so they just need some elbow grease and they'll be sent to the front.
They should be ready by October or November.
Fun fact: only the Czech Republic uses this variant (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-72M4CZ) in the entire world, so sending it is quite the gesture!
The Hague orders Russia to pay $5 billion usd (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/13/7397683/)
If Russia refuses to comply, its assets in other countries may be forfeit.
Russia will have many of such dealings with the Hague in the future. So many that they will rue the day Putin went to war with Ukraine.
Mayday: (https://i.redd.it/haf83yro9nta1.jpg)
Germany approves Poland sending 5 MIGs to Ukraine (https://www.dw.com/en/germany-approves-polish-request-to-send-ukraine-5-mig-jets/a-65301536)
These jets were formerly from East Germany, so approval was necessary.
This is in addition to the 8 Poland already sent.
Russia running out of tank crews, too (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/07/the-russians-arent-just-running-out-of-tanks-theyre-running-out-of-tank-crews-too-and-its-going-to-get-worse/?sh=650988164ba3&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainFB&utm_source=ForbesMainFacebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR1N74zCp7mjMIh5CwdByyxZ-otZHEOocLF9CzFpRuNG8YihwqTlZHooA0I)
QuoteWhere the crew of a Ukrainian T-64, Leopard 2 or M-1 can fire 10 or even 12 rounds a minute, a T-55 or T-62 crew might manage three or four rounds a minute.
And considering they're not using any sort of targetting computers, it's doubtful those few shots - taken by rookies - will be very accurate.
(https://i.redd.it/ebko3hfrlita1.png)
This makes WWI look like the 6-day war.
Canada sends all eight of its promised Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/eight-leopard-2-promised-by-canada-for-ukraine-arrive-in-poland/)
Antediluvian T-54 tank spotted near frontline (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/antique-t-54-series-tank-appears-with-russian-forces-in-ukraine)
When Russia brought them out of storage, it wasn't clear what role they would play. An army guy I follow speculated that they'd use them as improvised artillery since their poor armor (among other things) would make them poorly suited for frontline fighting. They could also patrol moderately safe areas somewhat away from the frontlines to free up some units for more dangerous fighting. The Russians themselves allegedly said they were being used for spare parts for other, more modern tanks. (Though the fact that they were transported intact means that this is an obvious lie)
Now, it's becoming increasingly likely that these tanks are in fact meant for frontline fighting, which is about as insane as the next thing I'm going to tell you. They're being fielded in a STOCK configuration. No upgrades. No modernization. At least none that are apparent.
It's hard for me to overstate just how bad a military decision this is. This would be like the US trying to fight a sea war with ironclads and not even bothering to slap a radar dish on the bloody things.
It reeks of desperation compounded by an almost unbelievable amount of carelessness and lack of foresight. To be fair, this has been Russia's MO throughout the entirety of the war, so why stop now?
Nuremberg 2: 34 countries creating special tribunal for Russian aggression and war crimes (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/15/7398002/)
Putin chef (no wonder he's ill) and nazi dabbler Mr Prigozhin begs Dictator Putin to simply declare victory to "win" the war (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/wagner-group-leader-calls-putin-190000516.html)
Considering that Russia is no longer making significant gains and suffered crushing losses in the attempt, Ukrainian forces are buoyed by Western arms, and a Ukrainian counterattack is looming, it seems highly unlikely that President Zelenskyy will just let them keep what land they've stolen.
Also, it seems like a tacit admission that Russia is losing the war, which doesn't bode well for Putin's future (or Prigozhin's future, come to think of it)
Additionally, Russia's already nebulous war aims seem to have been revised yet again - first it was the fall of Kyiv and the complete conquest of Ukraine before presumably continuing on to Poland and Moldova, then it's the conquest of the Donbass (a slightly less ambitious goal), now it's the slaughter of Ukraine's male population.
QuoteThe ideal option is to announce the end of the special military operation, to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned, and in a sense, we have really achieved them. We have ground a huge number of soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and can report to ourselves that our task has been completed.
This is a tacit admission of genocide as a war aim, something the upcoming tribunal will no doubt make note of. Assuming Mr Chef lives long enough - and it's doubtful, he appears more gaunt and goblinoid by the day, no doubt reflecting orc camaraderie - he may get the chance to repeat these words in front of a live audience before being hauled away in irons.
As for its war accomplishments, all the rest deal in territorial conquest, all of which can be reversed. So really, Russia has succeeded only in bringing death and destruction, both to itself and its enemy. One will be rebuilt and repopulated, though it will be a long road to full recovery, and the other will simply languish in poverty, demographic misery, and perhaps even political upheaval. One combatant will have emerged victorious, but not Russia.
Putin approves use of electronic draft notices (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-signs-bill-allowing-electronic-conscription-notices-amid-invasion-of-ukraine)
Previously, notices of drafts had to be personally delivered, an inefficient and sometimes fruitless endeavor because potential draftees could simply skip town to avoid service.
Quote"The purpose of the bill is to clean up this mess and make the system modern, effective and convenient for citizens."
"convenient" is certainly a subjective term here
This next rounds of drafts will likely spark another mass exodus of men from Russia, though it may already be too late to leave now.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 15, 2023, 02:17:20 PMPutin approves use of electronic draft notices (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-signs-bill-allowing-electronic-conscription-notices-amid-invasion-of-ukraine)
Previously, notices of drafts had to be personally delivered, an inefficient and sometimes fruitless endeavor because potential draftees could simply skip town to avoid service.
"convenient" is certainly a subjective term here
This next rounds of drafts will likely spark another mass exodus of men from Russia, though it may already be too late to leave now.
If I was a soldier-age Russian guy, I would be headed for the first secluded spot to cross that gazillion mile long Russian border.
Quote from: Cassia on April 15, 2023, 06:21:51 PMIf I was a soldier-age Russian guy, I would be headed for the first secluded spot to cross that gazillion mile long Russian border.
A lot of them did (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). Turkey, Georgia, and Armenia seem to be the most popular destinations. Especially after the EU closed its airspace to Russia. A bunch of them also injured themselves to avoid being drafted, though by now they likely need a plan B.
Two Russian armored vehicles got stuck in the mud then abandoned by Russian troops (https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1647144791023525888?cxt=HHwWgIC9qbzd6tstAAAA)
Perfectly intact and usable (after a thorough cleaning), an easy pickup for enterprising Ukrainian farmers :)
Slovakia completes the transfer of 13 MIGs to Ukraine (https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2023/04/17/7398164/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Russia's hybrid warfare (conventional warfare combined with fake news, hacking, and foreign "electoral intervention")
Complete junk: US looks over trophy T-90 tank taken to the States (https://www.technology.org/2023/04/18/americans-surprised-by-what-they-saw-inside-the-t-90a-tank-photo/)
I'm not sure why this tank couldn't stay in Ukraine and be used by Ukrainian forces in the war, but it's Ukraine's policy to parade some of the wrecks around and let their allies poke through a few of them. I'd assume that the useable ones are used and the clunkers are the ones that get paraded around, though figuring out which is which must be a very difficult job.
This particular tank was assessed by an American soldier familiar with Abrams tanks. He said he lived in his Abrams for almost 2 years and it didn't look nearly as bad as the Russian tank. Not only was it cheaply and poorly made, its crew made no effort to maintain it.
In summary: Russia's war is plagued by bad craftsmanship (bad initial quality) and poor discipline (rapid deteroiration of already bad equipment). This is important to note as Russia brings antique tanks out of deep storage. Putin may be preparing for a long war, but his tanks certainly aren't.
(https://i.redd.it/nxt28j235uua1.jpg)
Russian state media has taken an active interest in Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk (who personally met with Putin prior to spouting Russian narratives)
In this way, Russian state media can "launder" their propaganda by making it seem like the source of the information is not Putin when in fact it comes from Putin to a network of Russian propagandists to "fellow travelers" then circulated back to Russian state media as if was new info from people with independent viewpoints.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 19, 2023, 09:22:07 AMComplete junk: US looks over trophy T-90 tank taken to the States (https://www.technology.org/2023/04/18/americans-surprised-by-what-they-saw-inside-the-t-90a-tank-photo/)
I'm not sure why this tank couldn't stay in Ukraine and be used by Ukrainian forces in the war, but it's Ukraine's policy to parade some of the wrecks around and let their allies poke through a few of them. I'd assume that the useable ones are used and the clunkers are the ones that get paraded around, though figuring out which is which must be a very difficult job.
This particular tank was assessed by an American soldier familiar with Abrams tanks. He said he lived in his Abrams for almost 2 years and it didn't look nearly as bad as the Russian tank. Not only was it cheaply and poorly made, its crew made no effort to maintain it.
In summary: Russia's war is plagued by bad craftsmanship (bad initial quality) and poor discipline (rapid deteroiration of already bad equipment). This is important to note as Russia brings antique tanks out of deep storage. Putin may be preparing for a long war, but his tanks certainly aren't.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 19, 2023, 09:22:07 AMComplete junk: US looks over trophy T-90 tank taken to the States (https://www.technology.org/2023/04/18/americans-surprised-by-what-they-saw-inside-the-t-90a-tank-photo/)
I'm not sure why this tank couldn't stay in Ukraine and be used by Ukrainian forces in the war, but it's Ukraine's policy to parade some of the wrecks around and let their allies poke through a few of them. I'd assume that the useable ones are used and the clunkers are the ones that get paraded around, though figuring out which is which must be a very difficult job.
This particular tank was assessed by an American soldier familiar with Abrams tanks. He said he lived in his Abrams for almost 2 years and it didn't look nearly as bad as the Russian tank. Not only was it cheaply and poorly made, its crew made no effort to maintain it.
In summary: Russia's war is plagued by bad craftsmanship (bad initial quality) and poor discipline (rapid deteroiration of already bad equipment). This is important to note as Russia brings antique tanks out of deep storage. Putin may be preparing for a long war, but his tanks certainly aren't.
You're quite correct - if you don't maintain your stuff, it's worthless. In 1980 in northern Germany, our company got to view all kinds of Russian stuff - tanks, artillery, APC's, etc. I remember it all being nearly spotless, like someone bought it direct from the factory floor. I've no idea how they got hold of that stuff.
Quote from: ferdmonger on April 20, 2023, 08:02:32 PMYou're quite correct - if you don't maintain your stuff, it's worthless. In 1980 in northern Germany, our company got to view all kinds of Russian stuff - tanks, artillery, APC's, etc. I remember it all being nearly spotless, like someone bought it direct from the factory floor. I've no idea how they got hold of that stuff.
Interesting. During the Cold War, there was a serious risk of a conflict starting on German soil, so I guess they kept things in tip-top shape back then. But the collapse of the USSR changed all that. Germany developed a reputation of military neglect (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-army-chief-fed-up-with-neglect-countrys-military-2022-02-24/) and reduced its military funding, clocking in at roughly 1.3% GDP (fairly typical for Europe, but well below the 2% goal). Sure, Rheinmetall has some impressive offerings, but that's mainly exported to other countries, not a lot of it makes its way to the German military.
Not that I blame them, it makes sense to relax a little during peacetime, especially when you're smack dab in the middle of NATO. But like a lot of countries, they figured out too late that Putin won't just leave them alone. Nordstream was an incredibly expensive, ambitious project and to see it blown up during a time of war by agents unknown (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Russia%E2%80%93Georgia_energy_crisis) - the largest methane release in human history - that must've been rough.
Bargain deal: one Kremlin priest for 28 Ukrainian POWs (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/21/7398894/)
Russian helicopters tear through tanks - their own abandoned tanks (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-use-helicopters-to-destroy-their-abandoned-armored-vehicles/)
Roughly translated from Russian, the invaders describe a "huge helicopter" operated by Ukrainian forces which is active almost every day and allegedly drops land mines.
(In reality, the land mines in question are likely placed by artillery but don't tell the Russians that)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuMyoecaEBMWO8T?format=jpg&name=medium)
In slavic folklore, a Baba Yaga (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baba_Yaga) is a supernatural being who takes the appearance of old or deformed crone. She possesses formidable magical powers and is absolutely not to be triffled with.
(https://i.redd.it/sfxtfd39j7va1.png)
Sounds like Ruth Gordon! 👀
(https://i.etsystatic.com/8718239/r/il/7daa7c/3927450956/il_570xN.3927450956_7shj.jpg)
Baba Yaga also lives in a house that walks around on chicken legs.
(https://i.imgur.com/6SLWtkh.jpg)
(https://preview.redd.it/giy3rfxkc3251.jpg?auto=webp&v=enabled&s=53f96b52e06229435719def27004c4ac48c11953)
Latvia to send all its Stingers to Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-latvia-to-send-ukraine-all-its-stinger-air-defense-systems/)
Chinese ambassador to France says ex-Soviet countries aren't "real countries" (https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-ambassador-france-says-former-082707929.html)
Therefore allowing Russia to do whatever it wants to them.
This is BS of course, all of them have UN seats and many are in NATO (almost as if they were banding together to preclude invasion from some aggressor country)
Expect Beijing to use very similar logic with Taiwan and whatever else it wants to invade.
Russian ambassador interferes in Bulgarian elections (https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/russian-ambassador-interferes-in-bulgarian-elections/)
The Russian ambassador endorsed a specific candidate in another country's election, in violation of the Vienna Convention, which Russia signed in 1986.
Shock of all shocks, she endorsed a radical pro-Russian (and therefore pro-genocide) candidate.
She added that this vichy candidate has a "balanced approach in foreign policy", in an attempt to sound impartial while obviously being very partial.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 22, 2023, 02:46:06 PMChinese ambassador to Feance says ex-Soviet countries aren't "real countries" (https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-ambassador-france-says-former-082707929.html)
Therefore allowing Russia to do whatever it wants to them.
This is BS of course, all of them have UN seats and many are in NATO (almost as if they were banding together to preclude invasion from some aggressor country)
Expect Beijing to use very similar logic with Taiwan and whatever else it wants to invade.
West Taiwan is not a real country either, but some of us have manners.
70-year-old Russian woman detained after calling Zelenskyy handsome (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-woman-70-fined-for-calling-zelenskyy-handsome-reports-2023-4)
Sheesh. Putin has a very fragile ego. He probably has a mirror in his bunker and asks it who the fairest one is every morning. That or he talks to Hitler portrait like it's a green goblin mask.
The street outside Putin's bedroom is undoubtedly littered with countless broken bits of glass from the mirrors that told him the truth... 🧐
Due to Twitter's inherent unpredictability *smash cut to Emerald Mine Musk yanking out server wires* and its cozying up to Communist-Authoritarian State Propaganda (https://www.npr.org/2023/04/21/1171193551/twitter-once-muzzled-russian-and-chinese-state-propaganda-thats-over-now) (combined with its inability to police such activity anyway after Musk gutted such oversight (https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65067707)) and its targeting of legitimate publications like NPR and PBS (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/apr/14/pbs-quits-twitter-government-funded-media-label-npr) (both of which have left twitter) and a fair amount of respectable publications and respectable people leaving twitter...well...
Suffice it to say that Twitter is of declining value as a news source, and I won't be directly linking to it ever again and I encourage others to do the same.
Instead, I'll use different, more trustworthy sites whenever possible. And if I have to use Twitter, I'll either use the Nitter alternative or simply screenshot the useful info so I don't inadvertently send someone to some manchild billionaire's fake news paradise.
First batch of Leopard 2 tanks from Spain are en route to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-first-batch-of-leopard-2-from-spain-is-already-on-its-way-to-ukraine/)
ISW: Ukraine has established positions on the far side of the Dnipro River (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-22-2023)
The way that Ukrainians refer to the left and right banks of the river is somewhat confusing, so here's a quick reminder:
left bank = Russian side (temporarily)
right bank = Ukrainian side
Additionally, the Russian presence seems to have thinned out considerably near the river (no doubt we have Bahkmut to thank for that) so if hypothetically, someone wanted to launched a counterattack, Russian forces in the area would likely be quickly routed or destroyed. Just an idea.
QuoteRusich noted that Russia is fighting Ukraine to avenge Donbas, for living space, and for combat experience—rather than fighting claimed Ukrainian "fascism" and "Nazism." By reframing Putin's goals, Prigozhin and some factions within the ultranationalist community may be attempting to condition the Russian domestic information space for the prospect of frozen frontlines, potentially near the initial lines of February 23, 2022.
"living space" Interesting. I believe that was called "Lebensraum" in the original German.
How many Western tanks does Ukraine currently have? (https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/how_many_leopard_2_tanks_ukraine_received_about_allies_plans_to_create_a_tank_brigade_and_who_gave_the_most-6492.html)
Answer: 70 (including the 6 Leopard 2 in transit from Spain, expected to arrive within the week)
More tanks will come in time and more tank types are in the works (UK's Challenger, US Abrams, France's AMX-10RC, various upgraded Soviet-era tanks from ex-Soviet countries) and of course the IFVs, but for now, that's the hand dealt.
Cyprus freezes the bank accounts of Russians helping Russian oligarchs circumvent sanctions (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/23/7399064/)
The area has been called "Moscow on the Mediterranean" and like the real Moscow, nefarious activity has been afoot, necessitating that the authorities "close 43,000 shell companies and 123,000 suspicious bank accounts in recent years"
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 23, 2023, 11:57:53 PMHow many Western tanks does Ukraine currently have? (https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/how_many_leopard_2_tanks_ukraine_received_about_allies_plans_to_create_a_tank_brigade_and_who_gave_the_most-6492.html)
Answer: 70 (including the 6 Leopard 2 in transit from Spain, expected to arrive within the week)
More tanks will come in time and more tank types are in the works (UK's Challenger, US Abrams, France's AMX-10RC, various upgraded Soviet-era tanks from ex-Soviet countries) and of course the IFVs, but for now, that's the hand dealt.
It would bet $20 that Ukraine will launch a NATO style attack on Crimea in the summer and these tanks will have a big impact. I am sure the Russians are digging in down there like it's WW1.
Quote from: Cassia on April 24, 2023, 07:48:50 AMIt would bet $20 that Ukraine will launch a NATO style attack on Crimea in the summer and these tanks will have a big impact. I am sure the Russians are digging in down there like it's WW1.
My money is on Melitopol then Crimea. But yeah, Russia is about to lose the entire southern front.
And speaking of Crimea, the naval port of Sevastopol and semi-permanent home of the Black Sea fleet was again under drone attack and rocked by explosions (https://www.newsweek.com/video-crimea-sevastopol-explosions-ukraine-drone-attack-black-sea-fleet-1796179), yet Russia says there was no damage at all (almost certainly a sign that there was significant damage)
Red-on-red: Shootout between Wagner and regular Russian soldiers in Luhansk region (https://kyivindependent.com/https-kyivindependent-com-ghost-editor-post-644571c51c85292359c2551c/)
QuoteAccording to the General Staff, there were casualties on both sides as a result of the clash.
"They (different Russian forces) are trying to shift responsibility for their own tactical miscalculations and losses onto each other," the report reads.
Oof. If they think they'd had tactical miscalculations and losses, just wait. Because soon, it will get much, much worse. But by then, there won't be enough time for any finger-pointing.
China walks back its ambassador's remarks questioning sovereignty of ex-soviet states after backlash, deletes transcript (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-24/chinese-embassy-removes-interview-transcript-on-ex-soviet-states)
Doesn't matter, their position is clear: they'll try to justify any Russian aggression because the have similar designs on countries near China. Partners in crime.
Russia bombards Kherson in retaliation for Ukrainian advances past the Dnieper river (https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-bombard-kherson-report-ukraine-advance/)
Interesting that they didn't target the Ukrainian military (indicating that they likely can't) but instead attacked civilian targets in a known location to once again try their hand at terror tactics that didn't work in the past (this time'll be different, though /s)
Also interesting that the Ukrainian military directly commented on the ISW report, saying that it somewhat jumped the gun. Exact words: "preceded actual reality and ran ahead a little"
To me, this is something of a confirmation - the ISW report was not 100% accurate (no independent analysis is), but it was on the right track, it just needs to make its estimates more conservative in this instance. So Ukrainian forces are indeed in the process of setting up on the far side of the Dnieper river, they just haven't made as much progress as ISW predicted...yet.
The Ukrainians* have so much faith and hope in us Americans, when we Americans seem to be utterly hopeless about our own situation.
*(the Ukrainians that they specifically interviewed, but my experiences with the limited Ukrainian community that exists in my community + the internet makes me feel like it's a pretty consistent view Ukrainians do hold)*
The US has its share of problems, but it can be relied on to come to Europe's defense in times of major war, as we have in the past. Especially when it's a blatant land grab and a dictatorship versus a democracy. It's in our best interests that such countries survive and thrive, since they make for excellent trading partners and allies in the future.
Culturally, I'd say that there is a lot of overlap between Ukraine and the US, especially a strong sense of nationalism and self-rule. I personally admire their adaptability, grit, cool heads, and seemingly endless optimism - in polls, they overwhelmingly believe that they'll win, they'll rebuild, they'll join NATO, etc. I fear that Americans in their position would be more fear-stricken and willing to capitulate and are more vulnerable to coercion (esp nuclear blackmail).
I've read that the Ukrainians are very community-oriented and in crisis, really pull together as a community. Also that they lack the british sense of punctuality - the "if you're on time, you're late" mindset. So business meetings start late and likely end late. They're also very traditionalistic yet pluralistic and very friendly to foreigners, provided of course that the foreigners show good behavior.
Ukraine destroys electronic warfare vehicle used by VDV (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-forces-score-a-victory-with-destruction-of-russian-dzjudoist-ew-system/)
This happened in Zaporizhzhia.
https://i.imgur.com/WaQ3xlx.mp4
(note the Z-painted tank in the background)
There's an app for that: Ukrainian forces using Steam Deck to control turrets (https://thegamespoof.com/news/ukrainian-soldiers-are-using-the-steam-deck/)
Now there's a sentence I never thought I'd type. Steam Deck is basically a portable computer meant to play video games but it's Linux-based and can theoretically run third-party applications to do whatever. Apparently, there's an app for controlling turrets.
Well, at least with Valve in the war, we can rest easy knowing that there will be no world war 3.
ISW: looming Ukrainian counterattack causes Russians anxiety (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-26-2023)
QuoteRussia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation of Ukrainian territories with Russians. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on April 26 that Russia is trying to change the ethnic composition of Ukraine by actively conducting a large-scale resettlement of people mainly from poorer and remote regions of Russia into Ukraine.
This is textbook genocide and no doubt a pretext for conflict in the future. Among the many and outright false and/or logically inconsistent reasons for this war was the desire to "protect Russians". Deliberately placing Russians in occupied territory, right in the path of a Ukrainian counteroffensive seems like an intentional effort to cause them harm and thus give Russia a plausible casus belli in future conflicts. Also, such moves are likely to complicate Ukrainian reintegration efforts.
QuoteCompetition among Russian private military companies (PMCs) is likely increasing in Bakhmut.
QuoteThe "Potok" personnel also reported poor treatment by Wagner fighters who threatened to shoot "Potok" personnel if they withdrew from the line of contact. A Wagner fighter claimed in an interview published on April 26 that "Potok" fighters abandoned Wagner's flanks at night. A Russian milblogger claimed that "Potok" fighters abandoned their positions in Bakhmut due to a lack of ammunition. ISW previously assessed that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely views the proliferation of PMCs around Bakhmut as competition, and it appears that the increased prevalence of other PMCs around Bakhmut may be causing substantial friction.
Potok is GazProm's private military and direct competitor to Wagner. And clearly, they do not get along. This will likely further impair Russia's war effort, since war by definition requires cooperation to succeed.
QuoteThe Kremlin is likely setting numerous conditions for domestic crackdowns to give Russian officials carte blanche in prosecuting anyone perceived to be against Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. The harsh punishments stipulated by these laws likely aim to promote widespread self-censorship amongst the Russian population
QuoteA prominent Russian milblogger insinuated that Ukraine may be planning counteroffensive actions in order to ruin May 9 celebrations in Russia. The invocations of May 9 suggest that the Russian information space continues to place symbolic importance on dates associated with Russia's Great Patriotic War, which continues to shape discourse on the prospects of the war.
QuoteIncreasingly despondent and panicked rhetoric emanating from prominent information space figures suggests that the Russian information space has not yet settled on a line about how to address significant and growing concerns about the near future.
Ukraine receives Skynex anti-air system (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-received-skynex-air-defense-systems/)
QuoteSkynex is designed for short-range air defense. The system is capable of shooting down drones or cruise missiles with 35mm projectiles. The cost of two Skynex units is estimated at 182 million euros (roughly $200 million USD)
Russian state media floats using remote-controlled toy tanks packed with explosives against Leopard 2 tanks (https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russian_military_to_apply_toy_tanks_against_the_leopard_2_and_abrams-6504.html)
Yet again, shades of World War 2 when the Nazis tried something similar (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goliath_tracked_mine). They rarely reached their target, but the few times they did, they did do damage. Still, the bang/buck ratio was abysmal. Waste of resources.
The main differences is that the Nazi goliath drones were professionally-built and contained 60-100kg of explosives. The Russian version is literally just a cheap plastic toy made in China containing maybe 15-20kg of explosives. Ten bucks says it won't even be able to move above a snail's pace, if that. And Russian mishandling of explosives makes this a dicey proposition anyway.
If this article sounds familiar, it's because months ago, there was an article about the Russians putting machine guns on ground-based drones and using those to beef up security. Though if memory serves, the gun was too heavy for the drone and it couldn't aim or move. But these trivial details were left out of the fanfare announcement to the Russian public. Nothing was heard about them since.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 27, 2023, 02:51:19 PMRussian state media floats using remote-controlled toy tanks packed with explosives against Leopard 2 tanks (https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russian_military_to_apply_toy_tanks_against_the_leopard_2_and_abrams-6504.html)
Yet again, shades of World War 2 when the Nazis tried something similar (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goliath_tracked_mine). They rarely reached their target, but the few times they did, they did do damage. Still, the bang/buck ratio was abysmal. Waste of resources.
The main differences is that the Nazi goliath drones were professionally-built and contained 60-100kg of explosives. The Russian version is literally just a cheap plastic toy made in China containing maybe 15-20kg of explosives. Ten bucks says it won't even be able to move above a snail's pace, if that. And Russian mishandling of explosives makes this a dicey proposition anyway.
If this article sounds familiar, it's because months ago, there was an article about the Russians putting machine guns on ground-based drones and using those to beef up security. Though if memory serves, the gun was too heavy for the drone and it couldn't aim or move. But these trivial details were left out of the fanfare announcement to the Russian public. Nothing was heard about them since.
Imagine getting close enough to a leopard II to deploy that toy. That would require a tactical mistake on the part of the Ukrainians.
Quote from: Cassia on April 27, 2023, 05:02:07 PMImagine getting close enough to a leopard II to deploy that toy. That would require a tactical mistake on the part of the Ukrainians.
It would require at least half a dozen people to be simultaneously striken with blindness. Unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians use combined arms, so there would likely be an IFV and drone helping with target acquisition. I've seen footage of them shooting down a cruise missile with a machine gun, which is ridiculously good alretness and marksmanship. Sneaking up to point blank range with a tonka truck is basically impossible, but 20kg of explosives wouldn't do all that much to a Leopard 2 even if it went off perfectly.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 27, 2023, 05:31:36 PMIt would require at least half a dozen people to be simultaneously striken with blindness. Unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians use combined arms, so there would likely be an IFV and drone helping with target acquisition. I've seen footage of them shooting down a cruise missile with a machine gun, which is ridiculously good alretness and marksmanship. Sneaking up to point blank range with a tonka truck is basically impossible, but 20kg of explosives wouldn't do all that much to a Leopard 2 even if it went off perfectly.
I would like to think the US Army would be able to jam commercial drones, unlike the Russians.
Quote from: Cassia on April 27, 2023, 05:40:59 PMI would like to think the US Army would be able to jam commercial drones, unlike the Russians.
Both sides have been using drone jammers. Imo, Ukraine has had more success with them.
Poland has raised funds for a Bayraktar for Ukraine, got it for free and spent the money on two mobile repair stations and a mobile training camp (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/funds-raised-in-poland-for-bayraktar-tb2-bought-mobile-repair-stations-for-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine/)
Poland raised PLN 22.5 million ($5.4 million USD) from over 220,000 people (around $24.5 USD per person)
Ukrainian hackers interrupted a live teleconference between Russia and Iran (https://nitter.net/blocklee77/status/1651954830683021313)
They asked everyone to write their wills, because the SBU (Ukrainian Intelligence) is coming for everyone.
Most will probably not face consequences, but we live in hope.
Pro-invasion Russians tricked into committing arson on Russian military buildings and cars (https://news.yahoo.com/russians-trying-help-kremlin-being-080124434.html)
QuoteThe Russian police detained Belova in August after she set fire to the trunk of a deputy army chief's car, per the independent Russian news outlet Shot.
"Azov is power!" Belova shouted as she threw the Molotovs
Quotean unknown person had called Belova and convinced her she would be enlisted in a "special operation."
The caller persuaded her to send them large sums of cash, then told her to carry out the arson attempt as part of her mission, the outlet wrote.
Upon her arrest, Belova told police she supported the war in Ukraine and would never have set fire to the car if she knew it belonged to a military commander, Baza reported.
This beggers belief. I mean, who get scammed that bad?? Yikes!
Maybe they're faking being pro-invasion, cause otherwise, that's super duper dumb!
Ukrainian S-300 air defense:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fu324JhWYAApn2D?format=jpg&name=large)
Massive fire at Sevastopol oil depot (https://www.euronews.com/2023/04/29/russian-official-drone-causes-fire-at-crimea-oil-reservoir)
Russians say that no one was hurt and it won't hinder supplies to invading forces but that it was also the sort of attack that demands retribution and Odesa must be wiped from the map. No big deal but simultaneously, a really big deal. Curious.
(https://i.redd.it/yrvykd7x70xa1.jpg)
If you try to leave, they literally throw you in a hole in the ground.
Mysterious fire at MLRS factory in Perm, Russia (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/fire-breaks-sanctioned-russias-factory-200714252.html)
Careless smoking strikes again.
Proof that being smart about a few select things doesn't make you an intelligent person. The more this relic opens his mouth, the more I dislike him - esp. now that I know he's been defending communist genocide since Cambodia and Yugoslavia.
(https://i.imgur.com/VsvBwly.jpeg)
Germany confirms the transfer of the second IRIS-T air-air battery to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/germany-officially-confirmed-the-transfer-of-the-second-iris-t-slm-air-defense-system-to-ukraine/)
Iirc, the Ukrainians were very impressed with the first one and it had an extremely impressive intercept rate.
UK looking to buy missiles with a 100km-300km range for Ukriane (https://english.nv.ua/nation/uk-to-procure-100-300-kilometer-range-missiles-for-ukrainian-army-50321153.html)
I could definitely see certain uses for those... *throws dart at world map, dart hits Kerch bridge*
Quote from: Shiranu on April 30, 2023, 01:44:46 PMProof that being smart about a few select things doesn't make you an intelligent person. The more this relic opens his mouth, the more I dislike him - esp. now that I know he's been defending communist genocide since Cambodia and Yugoslavia.
Yep, I agree. I once thought he was spot on, but now his narrative appears almost chaotic.
Only good nazi: 99 nazis were killed in a single day (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/05/01/frontline-update-wagner-forces-record-crushing-losses-in-a-single-day/)
QuoteWagner forces started using much bigger assault units and captured several new positions by overwhelming Ukrainians with the sheer number of troops. However, Ukrainians came back on tanks and, within minutes, obliterated more than 6 buildings that Wagners used as major fortifications. As a result, Russians had to create several teams of loaders to collect their dead after the fierce raid.
Couldn't have happened to nicer people.
I went to bed last night with Ukraine bracing for another missile barrage (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65446525), I woke up to news that all the missiles had been shot down in the Kyiv area and they shot down 15 out of 18 cruise missiles (what a relief!), I get back from work and the find out a missile strike hit a railway hub called Pavlohrad and 2 were dead and 40 were injured (https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-741813). :'(
I get annoyed with the news sometimes because I get bombarded with little snippets of info in trashheaps of extraneous details and advertisements. Hell, a lot of the articles reference the friday attacks, giving the misleading impression that Ukraine is being bombed left and right (3 cruise missiles in one night is bad, but it's not bombed-to-the-stone-age bad) On the other hand, I get reassurance that most of the cruise missiles were shot down, which is also true but also misleading.
Honestly, I wish I could get the news in a more condensed, fact-based way.
Fact: Russia shot 18 cruise missiles at Ukraine overnight
Fact: 15 out of 18 were shot down by Ukrainian forces
Fact: 2 Ukrainian civilians were killed, 40 were wounded
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 01, 2023, 07:17:09 PMHonestly, I wish I could get the news in a more condensed, fact-based way.
(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65446525)
That's why I enjoy your posts here so much! 👏👍🖖
Quote from: Unbeliever on May 01, 2023, 10:10:59 PMThat's why I enjoy your posts here so much! 👏👍🖖
I have to warn you that my posts are slanted quite a bit.
First and foremost, I want people to believe that Ukraine has a fighting chance for victory and to support Ukraine's war aims (the expulsion of invaders from Ukrainian land - including Crimea - and re-linking of said territory with the elected government of Ukraine)
Naturally, I also want to cultivate hope that Russian forces can be defeated and therefore I highlight notable Russian defeats and blunders. Especially infighting or significantly embarrassing developments like civilians capturing a Russian soldier and going on a road trip with him to Ukrainian custody while singing patriotic Ukrainian songs, Ukrainian tractors hauling away defunct Russian tanks, Russian soldiers moronically camping out in an obviously radioactive forest near Chernobyl, a Russian POW calling his wife only to find out that she's cheating on him with another man, a Russian plane somehow accidentally bombing a Russian city, Russian air defense firing on itself, and of course the gold standard, the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet Flagship Moskva, especially given the obvious falsehood that it was sunk due to careless smoking and that everyone on board lived through the experience. There's a reason why it is illegal under Russian law to spread the idea that the Russian military is pathetic and worthy of scorn - because in some ways it truly is pathetic and the realization of that fact would undermine Putin's war effort. Happy to oblige.
In truth, I practice propaganda in the encyclopedic definition of the word - an attempt to persuade and promote an idea - namely that Ukraine can and likely will win this conflict, that aid to Ukraine is a morally-justified and productive act that will help not only Ukraine but also the West in time, and that Russia's influence across the world should be actively resisted.
If I were to give a more accurate picture of the war - report every battle and every causality, the ensuing sorrow and grief would be overwhelming. It would likely provoke an outpouring of unnecessary anger, panic, or despondency. Ukrainians are suffering, some horribly and enduring hardships that would pale most people - and this has been going on every single day for over a year now. But I do not want people reading my posts to sink into bottomless despair - I want them to see just enough that they fervently wish the invaders gone and support whatever policies will most swiftly bring this war to an end in Ukraine's favor. And then I want to tell them that Ukraine has won - in part due to outside help which is in some small way due to their pressure on said governments. I want them to remember forever the lesson learned - that democracies across the world banding together in righteous cause can crush any army, topple any dictatorship, and preserve any country. With any luck, that lesson won't have to be taught again for a very long time.
Ukrainian soldier takes a break for a slice of pizza:
Russians install cope cages on their MLRS (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-equip-mlrs-with-cage-armor-to-counter-drones/)
Unlike the tank cope cages, which failed to counter Stinger missiles, these are primarily meant to counter kamikaze drones. No idea if these are effective against that, but why change a winning strategy?
In the meantime, Russian artillery is a lot easier to find and risks getting snagged on stuff every time it moves.
Over last five months, Russian casualties top 100k (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/01/world/russia-ukraine-news)
20k dead, 80k injured
That's ~1k dead and ~4k injured per week.
Russia is nearing 200k KIA as we speak. It goes without saying that these sorts of losses are unsustainable.
I've always wondered what that would look like. This is of course an idealized example. Plenty of footage just has Humvees pull up somewhere, disembark, and then they're shooting down the side of a trench and throwing grenades at anyone firing back.
There's been a lot of hullabaloo about the explosion over the Kremlin.
The Kremlin says it was an assassination attempt, but the Kremlin says a lot of things. They say a broken clock is right twice a day, but they don't say that it's wrong literally every other time. The chances of it being right and being wrong are highly unequal.
Although the Ukrainians have been known to make the occasional raid within Russian borders, they've almost always hit logistics targets like oil depots or military targets like airfields. Wasting valuable drones on the Kremlin - which fortified itself with awkwardly-mounted rooftop mobile AA months ago - seems impractical and there are much more pressing targets to contend with in and around Ukraine.
Another reason I doubt that this is a Ukrainian attack is that if it was an assassination attempt, the Ukrainians wouldn't half-ass it. Let's just say that Putin's mistresses and illegitimate children would have great difficulty identifying the body.
In the past, when Russian provocations have been initiated, they usually:
1) rely heavily on audience interpretation to fill in gaps (an explosion happens or shots ring out from persons unknown and the audience imagines the guilty party)
2) very little - if any - real damage or death actually happens (e.g. a checkpoint is blown up, but there are no bodies) Provocations are designed merely to provoke a reaction, they don't cause grievous harm for the simple fact that Russia typically does not want to pay a large cost to create a provocation.
This case conforms with both observed traits of provocations. We'll see if it has any merit, though my early guess is that it is not something worthy of much attention.
Ukrainian military stronger than US leaks indicated (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/03/ukraine-discord-leaks-blinken/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=reddit.com)
While the US has had some good intel (warning the world of an imminent attack on Ukraine, which did in fact come to pass) it has also made some somewhat incorrect predictions (anticipating a rapid fall of Ukraine to the point of offering to evacuate President Zelenskyy which he famously declined, training Ukrainians in insurgency operations as if predicting military defeat, and just overall underestimating Ukrainians while overestimating the Russian invaders)
And while it's important to hedge your bets due to the high cost of underestimating your enemy compared to the low cost of overestimating them, there is such a thing as being overly cautious and incurring significant opportunity costs which hamper the war effort as a result *coughMcClellancough*
I expect that when the Ukrainians launch another major counterattack, they might not make the sort of extremely rapid progress that they did in Kharkiv, but they will still make significant progress. Although there aren't as many Western tanks and IFVs in Ukraine as the Ukrainians would like, there are significantly more of them now than there were during the Kharkiv offensive and with Ukrainian troops possessing the best training that the West can provide that they also previously did not have. I have confidence that they will surprise us nearly as much as the Russians.
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 03, 2023, 07:28:54 PMThere's been a lot of hullabaloo about the explosion over the Kremlin.
Plenty of Russians getting fed up with Putler. And they can't really talk about. That will lead to more and more acts of frustration. It does highlight that the Kremlin has crappy air defenses, LOL.
Quote from: Cassia on May 04, 2023, 08:53:54 AMIt does highlight that the Kremlin has crappy air defenses, LOL.
Yeah, it's either a false flag and Russia is lying to the world (not the first time) or Russia really does have horrible air defense, even in highly defended areas.
(https://preview.redd.it/ohikc8pjvqxa1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=ddfe66f7f26bce6ab5ce03f29eee612c871ae4ae)
Lately, casualties have been fairly low compared to earlier attempts to assault Bakhmut and running up ~1k KIA/day because of it.
Since then, Russian casualties have dropped significantly mainly due to a lack of assaults and the adoption of a defensive stance in preparation for the looming Ukrainian counteroffensive.
They've jumped up recently, likely due to increased Ukrainian bombardment to "shape" Russian troop concentrations in preparation for the counteroffensive. Today is an interesting mix of a lot of different things. Basically everything on the ground took a hit.
650 troops kia
5 tanks
17 armored vehicles
16 artillery / 3 mlrs
4 antiair
18 drones
21 vehicles
7 special equipment
At this rate, they'll hit 200k kia less than two weeks from now.
In not so great news, Russian forces have started storing explosives inside the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/4/7400572/)
I had hoped that after a long period of seizing the plant without some sort of nuclear disaster, they would simply give it up and work out some sort of deal to hand it over peacefully. Unfortunately, they appear more determined than ever to trigger some sort of nuclear disaster - a suicidal move, but Z-invaders are not known for their brains.
Hopefully, Ukrainian forces will figure out some sort of way to get them to leave without damaging the reactor. Maybe if Russian lines elsewhere were pushed back sufficiently, they'd be forced to evacuate.
Germany and the Netherlands to send 80 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine by June 1st (https://english.nv.ua/nation/denmark-and-germany-to-transfer-80-leopard-1-tanks-to-ukraine-50322491.html)
Ukrainian forces are already training, so they'll both be ready at about the same time.
Ukraine shoots down "uninterceptable" Russian hypersonic missile (https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-unstoppable-hypersonic-missile/)
Not only that, but the Ukrainians managed to destroy the warhead while leaving the rest of the missile largely intact.
My brother told me that US military intelligence is going to have a field day with that thing, figuring out all sorts of information about it in order to more successfully counter it in the future.
And make our own... 🤔
Tbh, I doubt the need for it. We typically don't go up against peer adversaries, though that might change in the distant future.
The EU approves sending €1 billion worth of ammo for Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/5/7400872/)
Funds allocated to ammo manufacturers in EU and Norway.
That's a lotta spicy meatballs! 😱
Ukrainian forces destroy Wagner ammo storage points near Bakhmut (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/5/7400841/)
Not sure if this was before or after the Wagner head's latest video bitterly complaining about lack of ammunition. Either way, it really puts Wagner in a bind - forced to advance without proper supplies and therefore either has to either absorb enormous casualties that it can't replace or retreat and suffer a huge reputation loss.
My brother bet me that Wagner will effectively cease all operations in Ukraine within a month, either dying or returning to Russia. I bet that they will continue to fight. We'll see.
According to Ukranian intelligence, Russian warships are being evacuated from their beleaguered harbor in Crimea (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16651) and moved to the eastern shore on the Black Sea at the Russian port of Novorossisk
This undoubtedly ends any lingering offensive operations and puts them squarely in the flight part of fight-or-flight, an odd strategy for an aggressor country, highlighting Russia's changing fortunes in war.
In the purely hypothetical case that Ukraine may attempt to liberate Crimea, the absence of the Russian Black Fleet Remnants would certainly simplify operations...
Incredible bravery and sacrifice.
45 defenders of Mariupol returned to Ukraine from invader captivity (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-returns-45-defenders-of-mariupol-from-russian-captivity/)
QuoteThe released include 42 men and three women who defended Azovstal. That is 35 private soldiers and sergeants, as well as 10 officers.
They were exchanged for three Russian pilots. Not a bad deal!
(https://preview.redd.it/0oxar1jy17ya1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=dc39560508546f3807bce4091ba3d983e37e3ded)
Source (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-tank-debuts-cope-cage-covered-in-explosive-reactive-armor)
ERA on top of the tank + cope cage on top of the tank + ERA on top of the cope cage
Man, they are starting to get super superstitious with this ERA stuff. Apparently, the logic is that more ERA = more protected, like it's a video game powerup or something LOL. Even I know it doesn't work that way. I can't imagine how a combat vet or someone with a passing familiarity with tank design would feel about building a pagoda on top of a tank and then slapping ERA on it like there's a fire sale in Belogorod or something.
Even a civvie like me knows that this stuff has some serious downsides. For starters, it makes the tank super easy to spot, which is generally the first step to getting killed. So, definitely not doing crew survivability any favors right there. Additionally, the added weight probably slightly slows down the tank, hurts visibility (something already not great in Russian tanks), and from stuff I've read about cope cages, they can also interfere with comms. And it's probably not super pleasant to have any of this stuff go off while poking one's head out of the turret or ferrying any troops on top or anywhere near the tank.
Basically, this stuff is like charging into a gunfight with a manhole cover as a shield and a motorcycle helmet to protect one's head. Does it work? Maybe in very, very, very specific circumstances against very specific sorts of attacks. But in general circumstances, is this a good idea? Nyet.
Ukraine destroys "Eye of Mordor" Russian surveillance post with a drone (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/phoenix-03-heavy-fpv-drone-destroyed-the-russian-murom-p-surveillance-system/)
(https://preview.redd.it/l7xt00uj8m191.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=ea8c786c35a26f9fac34bb0773f11631f18f0e21)
UK intelligence says Russia is experiencing its largest labor shortage in decades (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/7/7401041/)
QuoteRussia's population has reportedly decreased by two million more than expected over the past three years due to the impact of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine.
Out of those two million workers gone, Russia lost 100k IT workers - about 10% of the industry. No wonder Russia is reluctant to do a full mobilization, that would likely tank an already crippled economy.
Additionally, Russia is going green in an unusual way - simply reducing its industrial activity. (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russian-economy-industrial-decline-air-pollution-satellite-data-ukraine-war-2023-5) A 6% reduction in pollutants emitted across the board.
Tellingly, St Petersburg and Moscow have increased their emissions, while its more rural areas have reduced them significantly. Those rural areas are where the bulk of the partially-mobilized soldiers come from. I think we can safely rule out some new technology to explain this discrepancy.
New milestone: 3000 invader artillery destroyed!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fvhwy_JWwAMqcf9?format=jpg&name=small)
Ukraine received first batch of Israeli radars (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/rada-iemhr-radars-deployed-in-ukraine/)
These radars are capable of detecting incoming missiles even when subject to enemy electronic warfare.
Ukraine received the first 3 out of 16. These radars require the Israeli military's approval, so the fact that the Israeli military is willing to go on record providing such aid is no small thing, though the actual funds used to supply these radars came from a Lithuanian fundraiser (https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1923414/radarom-campaign-raises-eur14-million-for-radars-for-ukraine).
The thought of more and more Israeli tech making it's way to Ukraine makes me feel warm and giddy inside.
Good history of Israeli tech wiping the floor with goat fuckers and Soviet hand-me-downs - and to get to be used to protect one of the Jewish heartlands against a several century anti-Semite state?
Karma for the vatniks.
Quote from: Cassia on May 06, 2023, 02:52:25 PMIncredible bravery and sacrifice.
Not to be confused with Donald Trump, who said we need to do away with rules and laws found in the constitution so that he could remain president.
(https://i.redd.it/wfn8d6lowjya1.jpg)
Russia can promise them the moon because they're highly unlikely to pay out. The house always wins, so to say.
(https://i.redd.it/suvbrhv4vqya1.jpg)
Problem: not enough water
Solution: bomb the canal
Russian problem-solving strategies never cease to amaze.
Ukraine reports regained territory near Bahkmut, heavy Russian losses, some Russian forces tried to flee (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/9/7401428/)
The Ukrainians have a rather impressive short video about it, but it's pretty graphic, so I'll summarize a sanitized version. Russian vehicles took heavy damage from incoming artillery, Russian troops ran away from counterattacking Ukrainian forces, advancing Ukrainian tanks/APCs/infantry storm some trenches VERY successfully (a tank with a Ukranian flag digitally added over it drove over a foxhole with a digitally added Russian flag and the Russian flag abruptly vanishes...)
The video often cuts to Wagner head and Putin cook Prigozhin complain about the loss of 500 Wagnerites (over the course of how many days remains unclear, but Ukraine confirms the number of losses) and he also complains about the loss of 3km2 of territory
The final few seconds shows Russian POWs being loaded into the back of a Ukrainian transport with a Ukrainian soldier saying something in Ukrainian. Knowing the Ukrainian sense of humor, I imagine he asked the Russian POW how his victory day is going. :P
Ukraine: our counteroffensive plans have yet to be finalized, so anyone telling you what they are is lying (https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1656009525730635776?s=19)
Smart Russian surrenders to drone and lives (footage from May 9th)
French Parliament designates Wagner as a terrorist group (https://www.politico.eu/article/pre-write-french-parliament-designates-wagner-a-terrorist-group/)
Wagner's response was to calmly and dispassionately...nah, I'm just kidding. They issued terroristic threats toward Macron.
In another example of impotent rage, Muscovia raged at Poland (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65545636) for considering changing the name of their exclave of Kalingrad back to Królewiec (the polish translation of Königsberg, its name prior to WWII and subsequent Soviet takeover). Muscovia, a nation that has been trying to capture a town for the past 9 months, getting tens of thousands of its troops killed pointlessly, said the name change "bordered on madness".
Isn't Konigsberg the place that has the seven bridges? 🤔
Quote from: Unbeliever on May 10, 2023, 11:58:30 PMIsn't Konigsberg the place that has the seven bridges? 🤔
The seven bridges thing is a hypothetical, but yes (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Bridges_of_K%C3%B6nigsberg).
Ukraine receives long-range cruise missiles from the UK (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65558070)
This is huge because it gives Ukraine the ability to strike much deeper into Russian lines to destroy known targets that were otherwise untouchable.
If hypothetically, a Ukrainian advance bisected Russian-occupied territory, a certain bridge would be the only land resupply, and if a long range missile were to hit that bridge...
The Russians certainly have a thing for cope cages:
(https://i.redd.it/gzymbnu7a9za1.jpg)
After they took over a Russian trench, a Ukraine-allied Belorussian commander got on the Russian radio, pretended to be a Russian soldier, and called in an artillery barrage (https://nitter.net/WarFrontline/status/1654897347657080833#m) on another Russian unit, which was subsequently destroyed by friendly forces.
Jeez, that must've done wonders for Russian morale.
(https://i.redd.it/4m2ii49eybza1.jpg)
A home with the mother who raised you: Russia unveils plan for quaint town for American conservatives/fascists drunk on Russian propaganda (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/11/russia-to-build-migrant-village-for-conservative-american-expats-a81101)
Russia bills itself as the land of "traditional values" and this is true in a way - fascism is indeed a tradition of sorts, as is tsardom and dictatorship.
Have fun in your new life with basically zero freedom and zero control of your own destiny. And to sweeten the pot, you may be drafted tomorrow in a war with horrendous casualty rates. Sayonara!
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 12, 2023, 08:29:45 AMA home with the mother who raised you: Russia unveils plan for quaint town for American conservatives/fascists drunk on Russian propaganda (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/11/russia-to-build-migrant-village-for-conservative-american-expats-a81101)
Russia bills itself as the land of "traditional values" and this is true in a way - fascism is indeed a tradition of sorts, as is tsardom and dictatorship.
Have fun in your new life with basically zero freedom and zero control of your own destiny. And to sweeten the pot, you may be drafted tomorrow in a war with horrendous casualty rates. Sayonara!
How stupid can some 'mericans get, I wonder?
Russian Mi-28 helicopter crashes in northern Crimea, killing both pilots (https://nitter.net/Liveuamap/status/1657030105103777792)
🌻 🌻
This week, Ukraine did not lose any positions in Bakhmut, pushed the enemy back (https://www-ukrinform-ua.translate.goog/rubric-ato/3708105-ukrainski-vijskovi-cogo-tizna-ne-vtratili-zodnoi-pozicii-u-bahmuti-malar.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 12, 2023, 01:49:04 PMRussian Mi-28 helicopter crashes in northern Crimea, killing both pilots (https://nitter.net/Liveuamap/status/1657030105103777792)
🌻 🌻
Their pilot shortage just got a bit worse. With the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive, I would expect that Russian airpower could become more of a factor unless the Ukrainians somehow manage to bring up their anti-air equipment.
Not content with stealing washing machines and children, Russia even tries to steal postage stamp designs:
(https://i.redd.it/y3d83006wdza1.jpg)
A few things stand out:
1) the Russian tank has the same f'ed up barrel in both stamps
2) they couldn't even bother to change the reflection
3) the top one has really happened many times, the second one just some dictator's fantasy. Hell, it's not even a sure thing that they have an intact tank left that could do the hauling, or a sober/unwounded tank crew left to drive it
Damn, I'm almost too drunk to understand that. 🖖
(https://i.redd.it/lcjfw1bb5jza1.jpg)
27 artillery. Twenty. Seven. 😳
Ukraine is helping with Russia's ammo shortage. There is no ammo shortage if there are no launchers.
Germany announces an almost $3 billion usd aid package (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/13/germany-to-provide-2point7-billion-euro-military-aid-package-to-ukraine.html)
(https://i.redd.it/cbmbfmuf8kza1.jpg)
A Russian helicopter in Russia's Bryansk region was reportedly shot down and destroyed with no survivors (https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-742907)
A Russian Su-34 fighter was also reportedly shot down, also in Russia's Bryansk region (https://nitter.net/nexta_tv/status/1657341793325686784?cxt=HHwWgICx6Y_lh4AuAAAA)
Both incidents have been confirmed by Russian state media, though the first is blamed on "engine failure". Not sure about the second.
It appears that either the Russian pilots are abnormally careless or Russian AA is unusually accurate, with no change in general awareness. Either way, the free world appreciates the ongoing "goodwill gestures". Each plunging bomber inches Europe closer to peace.
It is interesting to ponder the reason why Khrushchev and USSR gave Crimea to the Ukrainian socialist republic in 1954. Russia won it from the Turks way back in the 1700s. Stalin had purged the region of ethnic minorities and it has been 75% Russians and 25% Ukrainians ever since. The Russians did retain use of the port, however. I guess when the USSR split up, that would have been the time Russia should have made a claim, but then again UK did give up her nukes. If that wasn't the case, perhaps this war would have never started.
There are social media reports that two helicopters and two aircraft went down today - for a grand total of four.
But imho this is likely a confusion due to misidentification, repeated coverage of today's events, and/or confusion with yesterday's helicopter crash in Crimea.
So until I hear otherwise from official sources, it's one downed helicopter and one downed plane.
Update: an official source says four (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/black-day-for-russian-aviation-in-one-day-russian-air-force-loses-4-aircraft/) ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Update: Make that five (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/14/7402124/)
(https://i.redd.it/f0re09e9dnza1.png)
(https://i.redd.it/slljnkc5jsza1.jpg)
Translation: FNG battalions as far as the eye can see, can't do anything but simple assaults and holding actions, the counteroffensive will tear through them like a cat against a roll of toilet paper
The Russian helicopter that crashed yesterday may have been carrying electronic warfare equipment (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-russians-lost-an-ew-helicopter/)
Ukrainian Eurovision music group's hometown attacked by Russia just as they were set to perform (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65586701)
(https://i.imgur.io/TkSFaqx_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
As you can see, their hometown of Ternopil is firmly in western Ukraine, far from any frontline. I'd wager that it also lacks any strategic importance. It was likely targetted for the sole reason that it would cause anxiety for the music group - an intimidation tactic, spiteful and petty.
Special Dehydration Operation: Ukrainian drones are allegedly dropping vodka bottles for already drunk Russian soldiers. At least, according to a short social media clip which showed a drunken Russian soldier (aka a Russian soldier) stumble around a bombed-out wasteland.
I'm kinda dubious about this one since
1) drones are needed for much more important missions
2) it'd be kinda difficult to perform the hand-off, especially without breaking the bottle
3) if the Russians are willing to accept handouts, it makes a lot more sense to feed them poison, like one would deal with any other infestation
Imho, the Russian soldier was already drunk and a drone just happened to catch it on film.
Two Russian commanders die near Bakhmut (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrain-war-russia-2-commanders-killed-vyacheslav-makarov-yevgeny-brovko/)
(https://i.redd.it/4e53b5sk3zza1.jpg)
UK to provide Ukraine hundreds of long-range kamikaze drones (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/uk-to-provide-ukraine-with-long-range-kamikaze-drones/)
These drones have a range greater than 200km, enabling them to hit almost any target in Ukraine.
Russian Volunteer Corps announces large-scale partisan war against Putin.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13iz4v6/russian_volunteer_corps_announces_largescale/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Ukrainian air defense shoots down 18 out of 18 Russian missiles! (https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-thwarts-russian-missile-barrage-43c14be)
Flawless victory ✌️
I read that each of these barrages costs Russia $100 million or more depending on the number and type of missiles. Putin is just flushing his wealth down the drain at this point.
And beyond the price, Russia can't easily produce these sorts of advanced missiles since sanctions hit. So Russia is crippling its own ability to wage war in the future, though the horrendous losses and accelerated demographics problems are already having quite an impact as well.
France pledges SCALP missiles (Storm Shadow cruise missile variant with even longer range) to Ukraine (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/16/macron-follows-britain-french-storm-shadow-missiles-ukraine/)
(https://media.npr.org/assets/artslife/movies/2009/08/inglourious/basterds2_wide-47d1a4b2dc8fb9dd0f22f5fc943227134cd957e1-s1200-c85.webp)
More detail on the flawless air defense (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-air-defense-destroyed-six-kinzhal-air-launched-ballistic-missiles-three-ballistic-missiles-and-nine-kalibr-cruise-missiles/)
QuoteThis was the eighth air attack on Kyiv since the beginning of May. This time, the enemy launched a complex attack.
It was exceptional in its density, with the maximum number of attacking missiles within the shortest amount of time.
QuoteSix Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles were launched from six MiG-31K fighter jets.
Nine Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from Russian warships in the Black Sea. The invaders also used three land-launched missiles (S-400, Iskander-M).
QuoteThe Ukrainian Air Force announced the air defense forces destroying all missiles. Ballistic and air-launched ballistic missiles were likely destroyed with the Patriot air defense systems, which Ukraine received from partners.
🇺🇦🇺🇸💪 🇷🇺😭
Russian arms exports are really going to tank after this news.
Those "unstoppable" Russian missiles can be shot down all at once by a nearly 40-years-old US system. It literally is a "You made me use 1% of my power" sort of situation, LOL. That really limits the usefulness of Russian arms exports.
Meanwhile, HIMARS and Storm Shadow are raining down on Russian positions with notable accuracy and inflicting devastating losses. Doesn't take a genius to place that order.
Western arms manufacturers are going to make money hand over fist when the Ukraine war dies down.
Russian troops abandon positions near Bakhmut out of fear (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-troops-taking-over-wagner-abandoning-bakhmut-positions-ukraine-officer-2023-5)
Quote"As soon as Wagner left and the regular Russian troops stepped in, they abandoned their positions," he said
QuoteZulu said that Russian soldiers "have no motivation. They don't understand what they are doing here. So as soon as they are afraid, they just run."
(https://i.redd.it/t90gf278ob0b1.jpg)
200k!
That's more than the Russia's initial invasion force!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwTmXr4X0AEa_he?format=png&name=small)
Also, the Ukrainians continue to bag tanks, artillery, and AA. Every day, Russia is less able to resist a counteroffensive.
(https://i.redd.it/s22p1p4fpd0b1.jpg)
Now they prioritize AA. A bit late for that!
Also, they probably shouldn't have wasted their arsenal on schools and infrastructure and apartment buildings because now they're in severe shortage and need every shot to count but now they're most likely to be shot down or fall on Russian territory or simply not explode.
Girkin has a little rant on social media (unlike Medvedev, at least Girkin types while sober)
Make no mistake, his words are also meant to score political points, as is this ongoing factionalism within the Russian higher ranks.
Still, he does acknowledge certain truths - the stupidity of Russian assault tactics, the horrendous deathtoll (which he admits is hidden, but noticeably fails to disclose why it is hidden), the uncaring - almost intentional - way in which this hidden but horrendously high deathtoll is received, and the deepening demographic catastrophe (a political catastrophe is on its way as well). And I agree, psychopaths with sledgehammers is no way to run a country, but neither is a sociopath with Novichok or a maniac with a Buk.
(https://preview.redd.it/mxeqhuoj5f0b1.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=f938fb4b2e2da0c9be9d1fdb612d1c0ae1c03133)
Lancelot: Brave, brave Concorde, you shall not have died in vain!
Concorde: Uh, I'm-- I'm not quite dead, sir.
Lancelot: Well, you shall not have been mortally wounded in vain!
Concorde: I-- I-- I think I c-- I could pull through, sir.
Lancelot: Oh, I see.
Concorde: Actually, I think I'm all right to come with you, sir--
Russia claimed to have destroyed five Patriot batteries (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/17/7402682/), and a flurry of articles in western media speculated that one was likely badly damaged and might need to be shipped out of Ukraine for repairs, but those actually in the know say that one was damaged but the damage was minimal and it is still in working order (https://news.yahoo.com/patriot-air-defence-system-insignificant-144133087.html). Quite a different headline.
(https://i.redd.it/noksyqqslk0b1.jpg)
"You're going down with the ship"
Errant Russian missile found in occupied Crimea (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-kalibr-missile-fell-in-occupied-crimea-media/)
Not sure exactly when it was launched, but it was after Russian occupation, making this another example of Russia accidentally bombing its own territory.
Russia seeking to use children from other countries as human shields to deter counteroffensive (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-wants-to-bring-foreign-children-to-crimea-before-ukraine-s-counteroffensive-50325589.html)
Quote"Under the guise of a music contest for 12-13 year-old children from Kazakhstan, Israel, Belgium, Morocco, Tajikistan, Egypt, Armenia, and other countries, (Russia) offers trips to Arter summer camp (in Crimea)," said Kasciunas.
Russia is cartoonishly evil and has persued war crimes bingo in Ukraine and Syria. Russia's status post-war should be adjusted accordingly.
I saw a magic trick today:
(https://i.redd.it/84myq2lpds0b1.png)
It was like the Death Star explosion. The vatniks had to have been sitting on a ton of TNT or something, because drones can't do that sort of damage.
US will support joint training of Ukraine pilots on F-16s (https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/19/politics/biden-g7-f-16-ukraine/index.html)
Ukraine will get F-16s. This announcement wouldn't make much sense otherwise.
(https://i.redd.it/7iyk0zmi140b1.jpg)
Russian bomber shot down by Ukrainian Patriot air defense system (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/19/7402885/)
QuoteAs noted, the Russian plane targeted by Patriot was going to launch missiles at Ukrainian targets.
Well, that's one way to shoot down Russian missiles.
There are also reports of explosions at an airfield near Mariupol demonstrating another way.
Being a winged vatnik in Ukraine is hazardous to your health.
Russian forces may be stretched too thin to effectively respond to a counterattack (https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-lack-reserves-respond-ukrainian-counteroffensive-officials/story?id=99423993)
QuoteWestern officials said Russia's forces in Ukraine are so badly depleted that Russia may lack the reserves to effectively respond to a major counteroffensive from Ukrainian troops in the coming weeks.
Music to my ears!
And with around 650 troops getting blasted almost every day, some areas are going to get real thin pretty soon.
QuoteOne official said Russia does not appear to have a dedicated reserve force to react to a major breakthrough from Ukraine.
That can't be right. Because that's war 101 stuff. If true, that's probably Russia's worst blunder of the war, and there's a lot to choose from. Because when these specially-trained Ukrainian offensive units counterattack, they're going to hit fast, hit hard, and bring their friends. Russian forces will be crushed without dedicated reinforcements.
(https://i.redd.it/qy4h05x3c01b1.jpg)
I share this one here simply because I would say this is all part of the same war - the War of Russian Colonial Expansionism.
Likewise, if you replace the name "Grozny" with the name "Bakhmut", you essentially tell the same story - especially in how much of a difference urban warfare makes in saving defender's lives... and a story of a Russian army completely and utterly without discipline, training, or morals.
Along the southern front, Russia lost 4 companies' worth of troops in one day (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/20/7403096/)
A Russian company is anywhere from 30-150 troops, so we're talking 120-600 troops, probably closer to the first number considering how most Russian units have been consistently understaffed throughout the war. We'll have to wait for more details to find out exactly.
Either way, Ukraine has really been putting the hurt on Russian lines lately.
Apparently, that report about high Russian casualties along the southern front was no joke, because today's numbers are high!
(https://preview.redd.it/44l0bmaab41b1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=a4f38eeebcb3f527b7fe07cb95b8a362fd80be18)
High infantry and artillery losses. And notably towards the south, where a counterattack would be most logical...
Biden apparently browses the same memes as me, because his response to Russia's claim that Ukraine getting F-16s represents a "colossal risk"
Biden: "it is...FOR THEM"
(apologies for bad quality, but it's the only one I could find that was short and sweet)
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/002/495/941/dbe)
Wagner appears to have mostly succeeded in capturing Bakhmut, depending on how you define success. An argument could be made that they still haven't taken Bakhmut's western outskirts, but that's a pointless debate.
So congrats, after 9 long months, 20k+ KIA and 80k+ wounded, Wagner managed to take Ukraine's 56th largest city (iirc) which is of course evacuated and demolished. King of a mountain of rubble and russian bodies.
The end result is not some glorious, decisive victory, but a bloody, costly victory which halted any further Russian advances and exhausted Wagner forces.
With a Ukrainian counterattack imminent, and Ukrainian forces poised to encircle Wagner forces, it's unlikely that Russia will be able to do much with its new gains. And thanks to their efforts of leveling every building, there's nowhere left to hide. I hope Prigozhin likes the area, because he's likely to be staying a long time.
(https://preview.redd.it/ematn4c0h31b1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=0c295c4597616b0e97d1fc726f6d40358be4795b)
Russia trying to create "elite" air assault unit (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-intelligence-russia-creates-elite-ground-attack-aviation-group-for-ukraine-operations/)
Why they didn't have one from the get-go is anyone's guess. Putin has reportedly been deeply unsatisfied with his air force for some reason *smashcut to helicopters getting shot down by Ukrainians, air units bombing own troops, an airplane bombing Belogrod, an airplane crashing into Russian apartment buildings, air units exploding on the tarmac, and air units being shot down near Belogrod* but I don't think Putin understands that you can't just wave a magic wand and get a competent air force. Besides, a lot of their best pilots are either kia or clearly want no part in the war. Slim pickings.
I almost skipped posting this one because I thought it was a repeat. But no, this is very much a "same stuff, different day" type of situation for Russia:
(https://preview.redd.it/3l8gqqxqab1b1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=b7e4b0a1e977a6c68188c262f193b8b6921af0ec)
Almost identical numbers as yesterday, with one notable exception - the Ukrainians reportedly downed a Russian Su-35 bomber.
Also, something is happening in Beloorod region of temporary Russia or maybe it isn't. Maybe little green men. Maybe little blue-white men. Who knows.
Whatever is happening (or not happening) it is a purely internal affair.
(https://preview.redd.it/4sedv1mvff1b1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=c37a901ace9795927e9dc2cc20edce09300514ea)
The days of special operation and three day takeover of Ukraine are long gone.
I've no doubt the Biden administration assisted in defeating Vlad's efforts. Well done.
Quote from: ferdmonger on May 22, 2023, 10:41:31 PMThe days of special operation and three day takeover of Ukraine are long gone.
I've no doubt the Biden administration assisted in defeating Vlad's efforts. Well done.
It's a team effort, but both international aid and Ukraine's ingenuity and bravery are key.
Seven Ukrainian soldiers capture 22 vatniks (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/platoon-of-russian-mercenaries-captured-by-seven-ukrainian-soldiers/)
It wasn't a fair fight. One Ukrainian soldier is worth far more than three vatniks.
(https://i.redd.it/rrt0rafwhi1b1.jpg)
Less troop losses, but man oh man, 40 artillery! Those guns are being silenced quick! Russia definitely can't replenish those sorts of losses.
(https://i.redd.it/0eg6jx8fnk1b1.jpg)
"Russia is facing an increasingly serious multi-domain security threat across its border regions" is a very fancy, very polite way of saying that Russia's borders are #$@*ed and its war efforts are being frustrated at every turn - from the frontline to the rail line to its military hardware within its own borders.
In yet another Belogorod incident, a Russian attack helicopter was downed (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-ka-52-attack-helicopter-downed-in-belgorod-region/)
Also in Belogorod (things are busy there!) the FSB buidling was rocked by explosions (https://english.nv.ua/nation/explosions-rock-fsb-building-in-russia-s-belgorod-oblast-other-nearby-communities-50326489.html)
Meanwhile, in nearby Bryansk region (sandwiched between Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, an unenviable position) a military optics factory mysteriously caught fire (https://news.yahoo.com/fire-reported-military-optics-plant-110300638.html)
Optics are especially important in this war because tanks are basically useless without good optics. And in this conflict, Russia frequently equips its tanks with inferior optics (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/09/now-russia-is-adding-inferior-optics-to-its-t-80-tanks-too/?sh=2d5addf1e95a). A big part of that is probably that optics are continually worn out with use and need constant replenishment. While Russia is heir to a huge stockpile of soviet-era tanks, it does not have a similarly large stockpile of optics. Russia's industrial output, such as it is, simply can't come close to keeping up with the sudden, skyrocketing demand. Thus, inferior optics. And obviously, taking out whatever factories are producing optics further constrains Russia's war-making ability.
With the apparent capture of Bakhmut, let's look at Russian territorial gains over the past 5 months (https://www.businessinsider.com/map-russian-forces-ukraine-little-gains-high-casualties-2023-5):
(https://i.imgur.com/qmC2jWc.png)
You gotta really zoom in, but yeah, they've taken an insignificant amount of territory - after being driven out of Kharkiv and Kherson.
Putin claims that Ukraine never existed and whips out his handy 17th century French map (https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-claims-map-proves-ukraine-not-real-despite-saying-ukraine-2023-5) (you know, the kind that all of us have in our desk drawers) to prove it
So here it is:
(https://cdn.britannica.com/s:700x500/27/61827-050-B16CFFCC/Mongol-empire.jpg)
Whoops, that's the Mongolian Empire.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/East_Slavic_tribes_peoples_8th_9th_century.jpg)
Maybe this one? Hmmm...don't see Moscow there. Oh, that's right, because it was founded in 1147. When was Kyiv founded? 482. That's quite a difference!
One last attempt...
(https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/0*AmzCGdmHqMG9NIub.jpg)
Will you look at that, found it!
Maybe that's where Waldo is! 🤣
ISW: Bakhmut Pyrrhic Victory (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/kremlin%E2%80%99s-pyrrhic-victory-bakhmut-retrospective-battle-bakhmut)
QuoteThe seizure of Bakhmut was originally intended to facilitate Russian offensives to encircle large Ukrainian forces in the east and specifically to take the large and fortified city of Slovyansk from multiple directions.
Taking Bakmut was originally intended to support further offensives, but by the end of it, Russian forces are too exhausted to capitalize on any of it - rendering the whole thing pointless.
QuoteBakhmut fit into the planned Russian winter offensive as one of several lines of advance that were supposed to end by securing the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast boundaries, but all the other attempted advances failed, once more depriving the battle for Bakhmut of hypothetical operational significance by March-April 2023. Moscow stubbornly clung to its efforts to seize Bakhmut regardless of the operational context and ultimately took the destroyed city at a hideous cost in manpower and materiel, then ceding the initiative in the Bakhmut area to Ukraine.
The original need to take Bakhmut vanished, but Moscow stubbornly clung to plan - sunk cost fallacy anyone - and paid a hideous cost for a destroyed city, then gave the Ukrainians the initiative. 5d chess move right there.
QuoteISW assessed at the time that Russian forces were unlikely to complete this wide encirclement as Russian forces would be unable to advance far enough or quickly enough to accomplish it, an assessment that proved accurate
(https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/FXD6mB8XEAUZO3Y.jpg)
QuoteRussian offensive operations in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk proved extremely costly and slow, consuming a high proportion of Russian offensive capabilities in Donbas. This forced the Russian military command to deprioritize the wide encirclement in Donetsk Oblast in order to complete the seizure of those two cities.
QuoteRussia reprioritized the Battle for Bakhmut in July-August 2022, following the culmination of Russian attacks on the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line.
Heavy losses -> increasingly less ambitious goals -> Funneling troops into a narrow killzone -> even heavier losses
QuoteThe Wagner Group also began to expand its forces by recruiting convicts, likely after Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin promised Putin to maintain offensive operations during the period when Russian regular forces were unable to pursue further offensive operations across the theater.
Deal with the devil, though not sure which is which.
QuoteISW assessed on September 11 that the loss of Izyum doomed the initial Russian campaign plan to attack Slovyansk from multiple directions and that even the seizure of Bakhmut would "no longer support any larger effort to accomplish the original objectives of this phase of the campaign since it would not be supported by an advance from Izyum in the north." ISW also assessed that Russian offensive operations against Bakhmut and around Donetsk City have "lost any real operational significance for Moscow and merely waste some of [Russia's] extremely limited effective combat power."
An extremely tactful way to say that the plan was extremely dumb and wasteful of extremely limited resources.
QuoteWagner mercenaries shifted their approach to seizing Bakhmut to a focus on encircling and trapping Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut City by expending a high proportion of their estimated 40,000 prisoner recruits in deadly human wave attacks. At least 22,000 prisoners disappeared from Russian prisons between October and November 2022 alone - likely as a result of Wagner's prisoner recruitment efforts. A Russian opposition outlet concluded that 55 percent of the total reported Wagner fatalities in October occurred just on October 24 and October 27 – when Ukrainian forces resisted Wagner assaults on the eastern outskirts of the city. The outlet concluded that the number of social media reports commemorating Wagner servicemen increased by more than 2.5 times as they were committed to suicidal drives on Bakhmut's immediate outskirts.[23]
QuoteGeolocated footage showed 43 buses full of well-dressed and high-spirited Wagner personnel moving from Crimea to an unspecified location via Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast on February 18...Prigozhin, who was likely aware that he was running out of uncommitted personnel, likely hoped to scare Ukrainian forces into withdrawing from Bakhmut and used additional forces to threaten envelopment or encirclement.
Bluff.
QuoteISW assessed that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut was a strategically sound decision as Ukrainians would benefit from exhausting Wagner forces if they were able to retain control over the two GLOCs west of Bakhmut. ISW also argued that while Bakhmut is not intrinsically significant operationally or strategically for Ukrainian forces to maintain, the defense of Bakhmut became more strategically significant as Russian forces decided to commit Wagner elements
Ukrainian forces said the same and that was their reasoning for continuing to defend as the US recommended withdrawal.
QuotePrigozhin's announced intention to withdraw his forces from the frontlines and give them two months to reconstitute likely indicates that Prigozhin assesses that his forces have been exhausted in combat, his denials notwithstanding...the Russian military will struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months.
Interesting to note that Wagner forces will likely be on the sidelines when Ukraine's major counteroffensive finally takes place.
QuoteThe Battle of Bakhmut exposed several key flaws in the Russian planning and conduct of operational maneuver. The Russian military command continued to pursue a relentless assault on Bakhmut after the city lost its original operational significance and failed to adjust its military objectives appropriately. The Kremlin, evidently, chased after any potential victory to generate informational effects and allowed Prigozhin to expend a large amount of Russian ammunition and thousands of prisoner recruits and then more professional forces to maintain a battle of no operational significance in Bakhmut. Prigozhin also continued this battle to gain desired political standing in Russia – likely without the intent to pursue the original goal of conducting a wider encirclement of Donbas. The Kremlin's fixation with Bakhmut indicates that Russia has not learned lessons from the first phases of the war. The Russian military command continues to overestimate Russian military capabilities and has not mastered time and space relationships in this war at its current level of effectiveness. The Russian military command also continues to pursue ill-informed political objectives at the expense of Russian personnel and resources.
Ukraine shifts how it does procurement to be more similar to NATO (https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/25/7162394/)
I'm not sure how they were doing it before, but now everything goes through the Defence Procurement Agency - "a single national agency would be responsible for centralised procurement of supplies, works and services to implement state programmes related to national security and defence."
This agency hopes to make procurement more efficient and timely as well as operating in a transparent way to prevent corruption.
It is also yet another way Ukraine is changing to be more in line with NATO standards.
In a prisoner exchange, 106 soldiers return to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-returned-from-captivity-106-soldiers-who-were-considered-missing/)
They were all captured near Bakhmut.
A Russian ship - the Ivan Khurs - was recently under attack by sea drones (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-claims-ukrainian-drone-boats-attacked-its-navy-ship-off-turkey) and Moscow released dramatic footage of the Russian ship blowing up the drone (giving the impression that the attack was a failure)
However...as shocking as this might sound, Russian authorities aren't exactly trustworthy, rarely telling the truth and never telling the whole truth.
Further footage shows a sea drone ramming into the Russian ship (https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1661720194673156097) before the feed was lost (presumably the feed was lost because the drone exploded)
So the truth is that the attack was successful in at least damaging the Russian ship, if not sinking it. We don't know the extent of the damages, but it is extremely likely that damages exist.
Moscow also spread rumors that Ukrainian Commander-In-Chief Zaluzhnyi was badly wounded
(Ukraine's governmental structure is different from the US in that the President is NOT the Commander-In-Chief)
Zaluzhnyi went on video and assured people that he is fine (Russian commentators noted the beige walls were clearly hospital walls - because no other buildings have beige walls - and a stray cord in the background just had to be connected to a pulse-monitoring device LOL
Of course, Moscow intentionally spread false rumors to try to instill worry in Ukrainians and more generally, anyone backing Ukraine. It was all fake news in service to a genocidal dictator. Forshame. And anyone who takes Moscow at its word for anything anymore is either a complete idiot or worse, a dictator's servant.
(https://i.imgur.com/lZcpqVIl.jpeg)
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 25, 2023, 02:55:06 PMMoscow also spread rumors that Ukrainian Commander-In-Chief Zaluzhnyi was badly wounded
(Ukraine's governmental structure is different from the US in that the President is NOT the Commander-In-Chief)
Zaluzhnyi went on video and assured people that he is fine (Russian commentators noted the beige walls were clearly hospital walls - because no other buildings have beige walls - and a stray cord in the background just had to be connected to a pulse-monitoring device LOL
Of course, Moscow intentionally spread false rumors to try to instill worry in Ukrainians and more generally, anyone backing Ukraine. It was all fake news in service to a genocidal dictator. Forshame. And anyone who takes Moscow at its word for anything anymore is either a complete idiot or worse, a dictator's servant.
(https://i.imgur.com/lZcpqVIl.jpeg)
Change 'Russia' to Trump (any of them, but especially the orange one) and it is even more accurate.
From Wagner Head's recent interview:
(https://i.imgur.com/rAx6OBrl.jpeg)
The Finding Out phase of the war: Russian territory - Rostov and Krasnodar - allegedly attacked (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-regions-attacked-with-drones-and-missiles/)
(https://i.redd.it/jnt2lbon222b1.jpg)
Ukraine to receive "enhanced partnership" at NATO (https://english.nv.ua/nation/nato-to-elevate-ukraine-s-partner-status-sans-rapid-accession-media-reports-50327602.html)
Currently, Ukraine is only invited to partake in discussions. Partnership status would allow Ukraine to request meetings, give it more ability to shape discussions, and pave the way for more cooperation in the future.
Abrams tanks are in Germany and Ukrainians have begun training. Training is expected to take 10-12 weeks, so 3 months tops. So they'll be ready by late August or early September, in line with earlier predictions that Abrams won't see combat until fall.
But when they're ready, Abrams alongside Bradelys will turn any Russian T-whatever into T-erminated.
(https://i.redd.it/7g5d7cz1xc2b1.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/latut16iw72b1.png)
Diabetes and/or serious heart conditions. That'll work well with poor rations and drone strikes. /s
Before long, they'll be wheeling people out of the hospital and dumping them on the frontlines, crutch in one hand and a mosin in the other.
Seriously, just go home and tell yourselves whatever you want.
Well, soon they won't have a single soldier left no matter who they do or don't exempt. I hope.
(https://i.redd.it/7g5d7cz1xc2b1.jpg)
Something may or may not be happening near the borders of Moscow region (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-abandons-many-villages-in-belgorod-oblast-russian-partisans-now-fighting-in-moscow-oblast-50327658.html)
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 27, 2023, 03:14:02 PMDiabetes and/or serious heart conditions. That'll work well with poor rations and drone strikes. /s
Airbomb some Jolly Ranchers and wait for the troops to go into a coma.
Russia consistently makes wrong assumptions - Kyiv will fall in 3 days, greeted as liberators, the West won't arm Ukraine, the West will tire of helping Ukraine, etc. This is yet another wrong assumption - that Ukraine won't dare attack the border because it'll alienate the West. Ukraine found a work-around with Putin's own tactics and Russians who hate Putin (so in a way, Putin made this possible). Plausible deniability was enough to lower Western ire (much like when Putin did it, sad to say, and a solid year of watching Russia bomb apartment buildings and hospitals did a lot to erode sympathy). The end result of Putin's assumption is that anti-Putin Russians are tearing through border regions like a hot knife through butter.
Now Putin has to make the lose-lose decision of diverting manpower to guard the border to halt further incursions by pulling troops away from the war effort or just let the border be on fire and lose anything unguarded and deal with popular unrest and loss of face. Partisan activity has increased in temporarily-occupied Ukraine, so Putin has to deal with that or suffer the consequences, too. And every expenditure of resources on all this extra stuff is less spent on war.
(https://i.redd.it/ive8iu846k2b1.jpg)
Russia's new strat: unpaid overtime.
6-day workweek with the last day being entirely unpaid and/or two hours of unpaid work every day
Forget being a serf under Putin, these poor bastards are becoming enslaved. I bet they wished they had hopped the border while the getting was good!
Potentially, this is yet another blunder. Even the most dedicated workers can't transform Russia into an economic powerhouse comparable to the EU/NATO. Much like the Nazis were, Ruscists are outmatched in economic and industrial terms. And in Russia's case, it's not even close. Other countries can prop Ukraine up with less than 1% of their GDP. That's pocket change. Russia can't compete and will destroy what's left of its economy trying.
A Russian telegram channel is "collecting evidence" of Ukrainian "warcrimes" and among said "evidence" is: the Ukrainian military using abandoned residential buildings as cover (this is dishonestly represented as if they were using civilians as human shields)
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 28, 2023, 10:53:11 AMA Russian telegram channel is "collecting evidence" of Ukrainian "warcrimes" and among said "evidence" is: the Ukrainian military using abandoned residential buildings as cover (this is dishonestly represented as if they were using civilians as human shields)
I wonder why those civilian buildings were abandoned. Hmm...
Ukraine hits Berdansk with Storm Shadow cruise missiles (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-uses-storm-shadow-missiles-to-target-russian-troops-in-occupied-berdyansk-50327688.html)
It reportedly hit a barracks (previously, two seaside resorts) and likely killed/wounded hundreds of Russian invaders. A S-300 AA was also destroyed nearby.
This area is along the Ukrainian coastline and given their accomodations, the invaders perhaps thought they were safe. They instant they step on Ukrainian soil, they are not safe.
How much does it cost to blow up a tank or down a vatnik: cost comparisons of various weapons and as a bonus, probability of success (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/05/28/study-shows-drones-the-cheapest-most-effective-in-battle-against-russian-invasion/?swcfpc=1)
The cheapest way to blow up tanks is FPV drone with a cost ratio of 1:175 (it costs 1/175 of the target's value), but it has a <50% chance of success.
For a combination of certainty of destruction and low price, your best bet is a Switchblade, with a roughly 90% success rate while costing only around 1/8th of the target's value.
Javelins have an amazing 93% success rate, but can cost as much as 1/4 of the target's value, making them not super cost-effective, but sometimes you gotta spend money to save civilian lives. And on the whole, it probably costs a lot less to destroy tanks than rebuild cities.
For infantry, and here's where things get pretty morbid, the best value is again a FPV drone with a whopping 90% success rate. But no matter what you choose, you're getting a pretty decent (literal) bang for your buck, costing anywhere between 1/70 to 1/9 of the target's estimated value. And unlike armor, troops just can't be rebuilt - it takes a long time to make new soldiers and a lot of money to train and supply them.
Ukraine claims to have a wiped out another Russian company along the southern front. So that's 8 vehicle/equipment losses and roughly 50-100 troop KIA/injured. They also claim to have blown up three ammo depots.
(I'd share a link, but they have a photo of a dead body front and center, so I'm thinking it'd be best to just summarize this one)
Missile attack on Kyiv (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/29/russia-missile-strikes-kyiv-overnight-barrage-ukraine)
Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Chief: Those who tried to intimidate us will soon regret it (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/29/7404350/)
Quote"All those who have tried to intimidate us, dreaming that this would cause any effect, will regret it very soon. Our response will not be delayed. Soon, everyone will see everything."
Belarusian dictator says Putin will "give" nuclear weapons to anyone who joins (Soviet) Union State (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/28/7404233/)
Lots of words in that sentence don't quite jive with their normal meanings. A more accurate description would be that Russia is willing to dominate nearby countries, drain their resources, and use them to station nukes.
Apparently, this "offer" was meant for Kazakhstan, which they naturally refused (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/29/7404326/).
Ukraine strikes ammo depots near Mariupol (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3715701-strike-on-ammo-depots-near-mariupol-100-russians-killed-over-400-wounded.html), kills roughly a hundred invaders and wounds over 400
Ukrainian forces continue to make tactical gains along Bakhmut's flanks (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/05/29/frontline-report-ukrainians-make-tactical-gains-in-two-directions-near-bakhmut/)
QuoteAccording to a Russian military analyst, Russian forces lack the organization, fire support, coordination, and training necessary to defend Bakhmut's flanks.
QuoteRussian forces allowed Ukrainian forces to drive an infantry fighting vehicle for 15 minutes into the Russian rear without destroying it, with the Ukrainian assault lasting only 16 minutes in total.
???
That has to be a typo, because I can't imagine an IFV operating in the
rear of an enemy position for more than 15 seconds without taking serious fire. 15 minutes indicates some combination of 1) a loss of one or more of the five senses 2) some sort of advanced version of a "not my problem" mentality 3) suicidal tendencies (IFVs can call in drone/artillery strikes)
Ukraine fires on Wagnerites leaving Bakhmut, killing 80 and wounding 119 (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3716044-ukrainian-forces-fired-on-wagnerites-leaving-bakhmut-80-killed-119-wounded.html)
I can attest that at least a couple of those deaths were self-inflicted.
Ukraine strikes invaders near Melitopol (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/30/7404557/)
The Russians reported that air defense had successfully intercepted the missile, then a lots of black smoke started rising from the ground from the exact spot the Russians had turned into a barracks.
Either the missile hit its target or the missile was filled with a lot of black smoke with a metered release. Which is more plausible?
(https://i.redd.it/bb0axj7gl53b1.jpg)
They've been reacting to border incursions by deploying troops to their own territory instead of Ukraine (even blowing up a road between Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia due to an inability to otherwise secure it) and been reacting to the looming counteroffensive by deploying troops to Bakhmut instead of likely counteroffensive targets, revealing a shortage of manpower (otherwise they would bolster both) and a lack of ability to hold onto Bakhmut with existing troops.
The end result is that no new offensives are taking place (even in Bakhmut, activity has decreased significantly) and Ukraine is left to pick the time and place of the next battles.
Russia detains woman rescuing Ukrainian children from Russian abduction (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-authorities-detained-ukrainian-woman-helping-to-return-children-from-russian-occupied-territories/)
Ukranian mothers attempting to rescue their children from Russian captivity (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65641304)
QuoteWhen I reached the school's director by phone, she saw no problem with dressing Ukrainian children in the uniform of an invading army.
"So what?" Tatyana Semyonova retorted. "What can I do? What's it to do with me?"
I countered that the Z symbolised the war against the children's own country. "So what?" the director demanded again. "What kind of a question is that? No-one is forcing them."
The Z-armband idea sounds vaguely familiar...as is the obvious forcing and obviously untruthful denials.
Zelenskyy says 371 have been rescued (https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-children-deported-russia/32436710.html), but that's out of almost 20,000
Russia's month of missile madness - $1.7 billion usd worth and largely ineffectual (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/17726)
Don't get me wrong, some missiles did hit and some buildings were damaged - a psychiatric hospital and apartment building iirc - but those aren't exactly war-changing developments.
My best guess is that they were either going for Patriot missile systems deployed near Kyiv (if so, they failed because they only slightly damaged one system) or they intentionally targetted civilians per usual. And while I'm sure Russians dislike the Ukrainians, I'm not so sure they'd be willing to pay tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to off each Ukrainian.
(https://i.redd.it/y2pk31bt283b1.jpg)
England, Germany, USA, Poland, Ukraine...How many eternal enemies can one country have?!
Medvedev is legitimately partly the reason I continue to stay sober; because my god, that man's brain is mush from all the Western brandy and whiskey.
Quote from: Shiranu on May 31, 2023, 04:49:28 PMMedvedev is legitimately partly the reason I continue to stay sober; because my god, that man's brain is mush from all the Western brandy and whiskey.
He posts walls-o-text so thick with z-speak jargon that they're basically indecipherable for a foreign audience.
And the stuff that makes grammatical sense offten doesn't make logical sense, like "Ukraine will disappear because nobody needs it" and I'm sitting here apparently unaware that countries somehow get manifested into existence through foreign desires as if they were chaos gods or something and don't just exist. Like, I'm pretty sure I can't just wish away Andorra.
These attacks across the Russian border are a great diversion for an offensive. Just hope they don't diminish support from NATO members. They might rally the Russians against Putin or for him, IDK.
Quote from: Cassia on June 01, 2023, 10:14:24 AMThese attacks across the Russian border are a great diversion for an offensive. Just hope they don't diminish support from NATO members. They might rally the Russians against Putin or for him, IDK.
True, though I wish they had gone full bore during the diversion to really exploit an off-balance opponent. Russia appears to be adapting to its domestic troubles and is no longer as distracted as it was.
Crimean bridge currently (https://news.yahoo.com/crimean-bridge-falling-down-cracks-135000186.html):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxhEC17WYAIrYga?format=jpg&name=360x360)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxhEC2OX0AA62RR?format=jpg&name=360x360)
Old Russian soldier gives up and is treated well. One comment:
Thank you, Ukrainians, for treating Russians so humanely. You will never regret it. 💛💙💜💙💛
Heroes are humans who do the right things no matter what.
Anti-Putin Russians launch second border incursion (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/soldiers-of-the-rvc-and-the-freedom-of-russia-legion-entered-the-territory-of-the-russian-federation-once-again/)
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/iXhIFNjVthk/hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEjCNACELwBSFryq4qpAxUIARUAAAAAGAElAADIQj0AgKJDeAE=&rs=AOn4CLCuEBiq0mlFQMyS3ipQ_o4V_NG_6g)
Drone hits critical portion of one of Russia's largest oil refineries, sparking large fire (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/01/frontline-report-ukraine-destroys-one-of-russias-largest-oil-refinery-plants/)
Reuters link (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fire-oil-refinery-russias-krasnodar-likely-caused-by-drone-governor-2023-05-31/)
Zelensky visited Moldova today (a country with a similar problem as Ukraine)
Following the meeting in Moldova, several more countries agree to buy additional Patriot AA systems for Ukraine (https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1664385996178194432?s=19)
The Netherlands is planning to buy dozens of Leopard 1 tanks for Ukraine (https://www-rtlnieuws-nl.translate.goog/nieuws/nederland/artikel/5387985/leopard-1-tank-oekraine-oorlog-nederland-wapens?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
US DoD to buy Starlink terminals for Ukraine (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/06/pentagon-buying-starlink-dishes-for-ukraine-after-funding-dispute-with-spacex/) (ending various "issues" with their use)
US to buy more than $118 million worth of Gepard AA systems for Ukraine from Jordan (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-getting-more-gepard-air-defense-vehicles-for-ukraine-from-jordan)
Putin's assumption that Ukraine's allies will soon abandon Ukraine appears to be yet another blunder on his part.
Speaking of Mad Vlad:
(https://i.imgur.io/LPQgaFJ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
(https://i.imgur.io/P6BPsdI_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/putin-terrified-being-assassinated-refusing-123800360.html
(https://i.redd.it/kjygzh1s3l3b1.jpg)
Nevermind, the Kerch bridge is totally fine, you guys. It's like securing a Christmas tree to the roof of the car. No way that bad boy is going anywhere!
*seawater erodes the center of the pillar*
*cars noticeably dip as they drive over the bridge*
(https://i.redd.it/u811xjl1fj3b1.jpg)
15 tanks!
Russia dusts off museum T-72s as tank stocks dwindle (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/01/as-tank-losses-top-2000-russia-is-deploying-museum-grade-t-72s-from-1974/?sh=54beb3d46efc)
According to confirmed losses, Russia has lost an average of 5 tanks every single day of the war. And that's just the ones we can verify, so the actual number is definitely higher, probably not far from Ukrainian estimates.
Disinfo: Ukraine weapons winding up elsewhere (https://www.newsweek.com/video-mexican-cartels-ukraine-sourced-javelin-launcher-debunked-1804093) (Russian attempts to FUD western support for Ukraine)
(https://i.redd.it/hteowhowwq3b1.jpg)
Russian commanders have tried to retain what's left of the VDV as (comparatively) capable reserves, but Putin wants them in Bakhmut so not only are their lives being wasted in a meatgrinder, the Russian lines are being deprived of their best troops on the eve of a major counterattack.
(https://i.redd.it/px5leanghq3b1.jpg)
Huge artillery and AA losses. Completely unsustainable.
Mouthpiece of Putin (https://www.france24.com/en/france/20230603-le-pen-s-far-right-served-as-mouthpiece-for-the-kremlin-says-french-parliamentary-report)
QuoteLe Pen's far-right National Rally party had hoped to clear its name by setting up a parliamentary inquiry to investigate foreign interference in French politics. But a draft report on the committee's findings, which was leaked to the press this week, shows the move backfired spectacularly, finding instead that Le Pen's policy stances sometimes echo the "official language of Putin's regime".
Quote"All [Le Pen's] comments on Crimea, reiterated during her inquiry hearing, repeat word for word the official language of Putin's regime," Le Grip wrote, noting that the National Rally had fiercely opposed then-president François Hollande's decision to scrap the sale of two Mistral helicopter carriers to Russia over its takeover of Crimea.
Dictator-Puppet Luka: only regret is that Putin wasn't more aggressive and ruthless in 2014 (https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-alexander-lukashenko-mistake-not-invade-ukraine-russia-2014-vladimir-putin/)
Quoteif the war had not begun last year, "it would have started tomorrow, but with worse conditions for Russia and Belarus."
Started by whom? 🤔
(https://i.redd.it/cfia9y35yx3b1.jpg)
Not quite as high as yesterday, but 8 tanks and 22 artillery is still very good.
(https://i.redd.it/0nhcifre1y3b1.jpg)
Early on in the war, a tiny Russian kid was bullied by much bigger kids for his yellow-blue backpack, clearly bought prior to the war. Logic played second fiddle to emotionalism. That mentality exists all over Russia, from the lowest serf to the head tsar.
Russians, who have finally figured out that the blitzkrieg 3-day special operation isn't going well and is increasingly splashing back into their own borders, are searching for someone to blame. And the obvious culprit is still politically untouchable (for now), so they pounce on each other and exhibit paranoia and delusional thinking regularly.
Give them all guns so they can shoot themselves in the foot.
Quote from: the_antithesis on June 04, 2023, 01:28:05 PMGive them all guns so they can shoot themselves in the foot.
Or just slap Ukrainian flag stickers on their storefronts and watch them get trashed by angry Z-ombies.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 04, 2023, 04:18:27 PMOr just slap Ukrainian flag stickers on their storefronts and watch them get trashed by angry Z-ombies.
1. Load the drone Vidsyich (a Ukrainian engineered piece of machinery) with all sorts of Ukrainian paraphernalia; "I love Ukraine!" hearts, blue and yellow flags, sunflowers painted blue and yellow, poster cutouts of Zelenskyy, posters to (fake) Ukrainian concerts in Moskva and St. Petersburg.
2. Proceed to drop said paraphernalia across Moskva - and perhaps a few enslaved regions of the czardom to cause additional chaos for the Kremlin to have to deal with; if nothing else, to cause a few dozen men who could be attacking Ukraine to have to deal with domestic problems.
3. Watch as the Muscovite regime literally tears itself apart - having it snuck in during the middle of the night and with no explosions, no one saw it dropping the goods all across the city; ergo, all people with Ukrainian paraphernalia *must* be Ukrainian sympathizers.
4. ???
5. Profit!
Some US equipment to be sent from Kuwait to Ukraine found to be in disrepair, not ready (https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/05/31/equipment-for-ukraine-drawn-from-kuwait-wasnt-combat-ready-ig-says/)
QuoteAll six of the M777 howitzers and 25 of 29 M1167 High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles were not "mission ready" and required repairs before U.S. European Command could send the equipment to Ukraine.
Quote from: Hydra009 on May 28, 2023, 01:19:22 AM
Russia consistently makes wrong assumptions - Kyiv will fall in 3 days, greeted as liberators, the West won't arm Ukraine, the West will tire of helping Ukraine, etc. This is yet another wrong assumption - that Ukraine won't dare attack the border because it'll alienate the West. Ukraine found a work-around with Putin's own tactics and Russians who hate Putin (so in a way, Putin made this possible). Plausible deniability was enough to lower Western ire (much like when Putin did it, sad to say, and a solid year of watching Russia bomb apartment buildings and hospitals did a lot to erode sympathy). The end result of Putin's assumption is that anti-Putin Russians are tearing through border regions like a hot knife through butter.
Now Putin has to make the lose-lose decision of diverting manpower to guard the border to halt further incursions by pulling troops away from the war effort or just let the border be on fire and lose anything unguarded and deal with popular unrest and loss of face. Partisan activity has increased in temporarily-occupied Ukraine, so Putin has to deal with that or suffer the consequences, too. And every expenditure of resources on all this extra stuff is less spent on war.
Vlad the Lesser thought this was a football game where the other team never gets to cross the 50 yard line. "Of course we'll win!" Now the 50 yard line has been crossed, and Vlad's defense is confused.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 01, 2023, 10:54:23 AMCrimean bridge currently (https://news.yahoo.com/crimean-bridge-falling-down-cracks-135000186.html):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxhEC17WYAIrYga?format=jpg&name=360x360)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxhEC2OX0AA62RR?format=jpg&name=360x360)
A caulking gun and some good bathroom sealant ought to do the trick.
Ukrainian army destroys Russia's mainland route to Crimea with blasts in Berdyansk and Melitopol (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-army-destroys-russia-s-mainland-route-to-crimea-with-blasts-in-berdyansk-and-melitopol-50329447.html)
Wagner says they're being shelled by Russian troops (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/wagner-pmc-claims-being-shelled-by-soldiers-of-the-armed-forces-of-the-russian-federation/)
(https://i.redd.it/8ve7y55z154b1.jpg)
Freedom Of Russia Legion reports destroying two tanks and two armored vehicles in Belgorod region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/5/7405330/)
Lol, the Russian authorities said that they've already chased them away. That's going to be difficult to explain. Anyone know if that Iraqi PR guy - Baghdad Bob iirc - is looking for work?
(https://i.redd.it/5fvdogp9yb4b1.jpg)
Big numbers! 800 troops, 12 tanks, and a whopping 36 artillery and 6 mlrs!
Ticket punched: Freedom of Russia Legion reports killing Russian colonel responsible for war crimes (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/5/7405450/)
Quote"He died in battle, like an officer with a weapon in his hands, but we must admit that these hands are covered up to the elbows in blood.
On his orders, he and his subordinates had systematically terrorised the population of Belgorod Oblast and violated their rights and freedoms. Earlier, Stesev killed civilians in Chechnya, Yugoslavia, Abkhazia and Ukraine."
In Kharkiv region, fleeing invaders left behind 10-ton ammo cache and anti-air missile launcher (https://nitter.net/nexta_tv/status/1665698851141963784?cxt=HHwWkMC-0fSR4J0uAAAA)
Generously donated to UA armed forces. :)
(https://i.redd.it/4f59kk6boc4b1.jpg)
I'm sure you have all heard by now about the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.
What you probably haven't heard:
It was deliberately destroyed by Russia's 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade (https://kyivindependent.com/official-kakhovka-dam-was-blown-up-by-russias-205th-motorized-rifle-brigade/), who intentionally raised the water levels (https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1666012180217462785#m), then blew up the dam, also releasing at least 150 tons of oil into the water (https://kyivindependent.com/president-office-on-environmental-damage-caused-by-dam-explosion/), creating a huge ecological disaster.
Russia is a terrorist state. Period.
What is the motivation for doing this?
Supposedly, it is to stymie the imminent Ukrainian counterattack, or to at least force operations to take place further to the east, making Ukrainian advances more predictable.
Though the military value of this is dubious at best, since while the floodwaters will stave off Ukrainian attacks for a few weeks, as the water recedes, it will likely be even easier to traverse than if the dam had stayed intact. Also, much of the low-lying areas are in Russian-occupied territory, so Russian fortifications and minefields are being flooded as well (https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/explosion-of-the-kakhovka-hydroelectric-power-plant-war-crime-instead-of-a-military-strategy/). The invaders even helpfully filmed some of their landmines washing away and smashing themselves on rocks, detonating harmlessly. If that's their military strategy, it's a poor one.
There is a better explaination. The Russians know they're going to lose a lot of territory to this counteroffensive and soon. So they're deliberately doing as much damage as possible to Ukrainian infrastructure, civilians, and even the ecosystem in one last spiteful act. It doesn't make logical sense because it's not driven by logic - but by hatred and fear and the sort of pettiness Russia has exhibited throughout the war.
Yes, what a messed up move. I hope it backfires on the Putler.
Quote from: Cassia on June 07, 2023, 11:58:32 AMYes, what a messed up move. I hope it backfires on the Putler.
Hopefully, it results in much more vigorous aid to Ukraine. As far as I'm concerned, all red lines are submerged under murky floodwaters.
Though the dam is grabbing all the headlines, it's only a small portion of the frontline, and Ukraine is rocking Russia:
(https://preview.redd.it/0139egqa1j4b1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=a76125c254d511acf2fe9912f7e2f1021640634c)
13 tanks and 37 artillery! There is an information blackout on Ukrainian advances, so I can't get into detail, but I can safely say that they continue to make progress in the east and south.
At least the Russians are not smart enough to wait until Ukraine had set up ponton bridges and got their troops and supplies assembled into the flood zone on the Eastern banks (assuming that is where they were headed).
Apparently destroying/ruining dams is something Russians have made a habit out of in occupied Zaporizhzhia - it's not the first time they've done this; they also are apparently making make-shift dams to flood roads & fields (presumably) to slow down the Ukrainian attack.
https://khpg.org/en/1608812358 (https://khpg.org/en/1608812358)
Ukraine demands that Russia pay reparations for dam destruction (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-billions-kakhovka-dam-destruction-flooding-kherson-war-1805118)
Just tack it on to whatever else Russia will be paying to normalize trade relations post-Putin. Or just tax Russian oil and natural gas until the figure is met. Either way works.
(https://preview.redd.it/4oweh0uraq4b1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=92dbb86ca140f95fca549818b366b0a4fce50f17)
18 tanks! I believe that's a new record.
US: Ukraine counteroffensive going better than expected (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-going-better-than-expected-u-s-says)
(https://i.redd.it/uoxoojmhcx4b1.jpg)
Back up to 1k a day!
I saw a report that unfortunately some Leopard tanks and Bradley IFVs got destroyed. Russians have a lot of dug-in artillery and it's gonna happen. Russian propaganda factory is gonna go crazy.
I read a report on my news feed that a bunch of Russian troops got wiped out by a flood caused by a blown-up dam. Both sides are blaming the other, of course. 🤔
Quote from: Unbeliever on June 09, 2023, 08:02:15 PMI read a report on my news feed that a bunch of Russian troops got wiped out by a flood caused by a blown-up dam. Both sides are blaming the other, of course. 🤔
I've heard that, too, albeit without sources. So afaik it's just a rumor. I mean, it's somewhat likely that some Russian troops were out of the loop and didn't know the dam was going to blow, and it's also likely that Russian troops have been staying at civilian houses near the river. So, if both factors coincide...
But we don't know.
What we do know is that Russia blames Ukraine for the dam, tries to minimize the scale of the destruction (an uncharacteristically magnanimous take, given their 100% non-culpability), and also speculates that the dam near Kyiv would be a suitable
second target ...uhh...first target...definitely just the one...
So, the Counteroffensive is officially on. I should feel relieved. Instead, I feel worried and anxious and this whole information embargo thing really isn't helping.
And much like the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives, Russia is taking full advantage of that information vacuum with its normal song and dance that the counteroffensive is failing, that they've blown up over 9000 Leopard 2s, along with all of NATO and the entire cast of The Avengers. What makes things worse is that they have released some footage of real damage inflicted on Ukrainian hardware, while the Ukrainians have not similarly released footage of damage to Russian hardware. A credulous mind would assume the worst.
However, one vehicle loss does not necessarily lose a battle, and one lost battle does not necessarily lose the war. It's important to keep a sense of perspective and not lose one's head.
I told my brother tonight that we must accept that for a good while, we will simply not know how this counteroffensive is shaping up at all. We will have guesses and maybe a vague general idea, but we won't know if Bradleys are blasting T-72s and T-62s and T-55s (lol) until days, possibly weeks after these battles take place.
I remember the nail-biting with Kherson and how there was a lot of speculation that Russia was luring the Ukrainians into some devastating trap or ambush, how they were going to inflict heavy casualties on the Ukrainians and fight block by block and blow up the dam...wait, that last one actually panned out a little, though it was much less of a military strategy than just Russia's normal MO of maximizing civilian suffering (ostensibly, the people they're here to "save")
The point is, Kherson wasn't the bloodbath the Russians claimed it would be and the Kharkiv counterattack wasn't a failure like the Russians said it would be - it was actually a huge win for the Ukrainians and an embarrassing rout on the Russian side. Russia has lied, is lying, and will lie.
Therefore, I must suppress my emotions for now and wait until the dust has settled and then assess the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Rampant fear-speculation is bad for my own health and bad for the war effort. Deep breaths.
(https://i.redd.it/1ruu5lhs555b1.jpg)
Retreating over your own minefield. Now there's an idea!
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 10, 2023, 12:39:10 AMTherefore, I must suppress my emotions for now and wait until the dust has settled and then assess the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Rampant fear-speculation is bad for my own health and bad for the war effort. Deep breaths.
I experience emotions over the situation, but they are independent of facts, which we don't have all of. I want Ukraine to prevail, but I'm not taking bets. At one time, I thought Russia would have owned the Ukraine in a few short weeks, even though much weaker nations, Afghanistan for one, have successfully repelled Russia and the United States after many years of war. I still recall the words of Scott Ritter, child molester that he may be, but which is neither here nor there, and who in the first few weeks of the conflict claimed Ukraine would ultimately be lost. Of course, he is not as qualified to address this issue as he was about his claim that there were no WMDs in Iraq when 67 percent of Americans believed there were. He may not be the expert on all wars.
I'm convinced that Russia's military infrastructure is no where near as powerful as I once thought. In fact, I would describe it as dismal considering Russia is considered a world power.
Russian propagandists when Russia damages one Ukrainian military vehicle:
(https://i.redd.it/yun0t1z1695b1.jpg)
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 10, 2023, 07:01:17 PMRussian propagandists when Russia damages one Ukrainian military vehicle:
(https://i.redd.it/yun0t1z1695b1.jpg)
If it were true, it's one hell of a thing to brag about.
Apparently, the Ukrainians figured out the mistake of ceding the information space to the Russians, because they've put out quite a few bangers recently:
They've captured more territory around Bakhmut (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-army-reports-new-gains-against-russian-forces-near-bakhmut-2023-06-10/), enough to say that it is no longer lost and is now actively contested once again.
Along the Southern front, the Russian first line of defense has been hit hard and ceded a few kilometers of ground in some points (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-counter-offensive-putin/). Some Ukrainian forces have met stiff resistance while some have liberated towns with barely a fight - there's a lot of variation in this area, to put it mildly. The exact locations and names of said towns are withheld for obvious reasons.
And while the Russian attack on the Ukrainian convoy was certainly undesirable, it wasn't half as bad as what the Russians received when the Ukrainians hit a Russian convoy (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/10/7406303/) - they lost "three artillery systems, two tankers and eight units of various equipment", including a "a truck loaded with ammunition, which set off a real firework in the end"
The Ukrainians also released footage of a Russian Grad MLRS vehicle hit with pinpoint accuracy by a missile of some sort, which triggered a catastrophic detonation of all its ammo (https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-artillery-destroys-russian-rocket-launcher-with-precision-strike/) - missiles started firing themselves at nothing in particular, then the wreckage rolled to a stop. A "flamethrower" thermobaric rocket launcher system was similarly blown skyhigh (https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-troops-blow-up-russias-heavy-flamethrower-in-huge-explosion/).
There's also footage of Ukrainians clearing Russian trenches by shooting down them from the side (clearly, a pretty serious design problem) with Humvee-like vehicles with machine guns on top supported by infantry.
And last and probably least is a Russian soldier driving a civilian car hit by a Ukrainian FPV drone. This one is notable because the drone's final frame perfectly captures the Russian driver's very surprised, very worried reaction.
Living in Russia might not be very good, but it is much better than dying in Ukraine.
I hear the Ukrainians are using missiles that spread land mines behind the Russian lines, so that when the Russians retreat they must do so by traversing a death trap. More power to 'em!
Quote from: Unbeliever on June 10, 2023, 11:38:11 PMI hear the Ukrainians are using missiles that spread land mines behind the Russian lines, so that when the Russians retreat they must do so by traversing a death trap. More power to 'em!
Yep. In one battle, they made up for the tank disparity by funneling the Russians along a dirt road by mining everything around the road but leaving just enough room for two tanks to travel side-by-side. The Russians took the bait and advanced down the road. The Ukrainians ambushed the hell out of them from the front and sides and also fired fresh landmines to the Russians' rear. So the Russians couldn't spread out or retreat without blowing up, and had to fight as they were. They took very heavy casualties.
Russian base in Tavria direction (aka southern front) destroyed (https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1667857020760780800)
The Ukrainians certainly know how to put on a show! Obviously, all audio has been replaced to be more colorful and interesting, but the video itself is authentic.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 11, 2023, 10:49:06 AMRussian base in Tavria direction (aka southern front) destroyed (https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1667857020760780800)
The Ukrainians certainly know how to put on a show! Obviously, all audio has been replaced to be more colorful and interesting, but the video itself is authentic.
It's so sad how they have to blow up their own country because of Putler.
(https://preview.redd.it/0cernrwqqb5b1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=18f57e34b57a52480312df680a45c1c2108adf46)
The Ukrainians continue to tear through tanks. 17! (Russia's sole tank production plant produces about 20 tanks per month, tops. So this is about a month's production down the drain in one day)
Quote from: Cassia on June 11, 2023, 10:56:59 AMIt's so sad how they have to blow up their own country because of Putler.
All will be rebuilt. Bucha looks very different now, a mere year after the invaders were pushed out.
(https://i.insider.com/647dc08ea52c4b001936960c?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp)
(https://i.insider.com/647dc00aa52c4b00193695ea?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp)
Oh, and Ukraine has now officially destroyed >600 invader MLRS
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyU_OPcWIAMRKUy?format=jpg&name=small)
Wagner forces refuse to sign contracts with Russian military (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/wagner-pmc-refused-to-sign-contracts-with-the-ministry-of-defense-of-the-russian-federation/)
QuoteOn June 10, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered all Russian volunteer formations to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense by July 1 to create "unified approaches to the organization of comprehensive support and the fulfillment of tasks by them."
QuoteIt is worth noting that according to Russian law, private military companies are prohibited in Russia, so officials choose the definition of "volunteer forces".
Part of the reason appears to be Wagner's bone-deep animosity towards Russia's regular army:
QuotePrigozhin also noted that "Shoigu cannot properly manage military formations."
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyfcN5nX0AEUbhg?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 13, 2023, 06:56:28 PM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyfcN5nX0AEUbhg?format=jpg&name=small)
Today?
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 13, 2023, 08:24:48 PMFrom this morning.
While I mourn those deaths in the overall scheme of things, this is excellent news.
I understand Australia is send some fighters.
Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on June 14, 2023, 06:47:59 AMI understand Australia is send some fighters.
I haven't heard anything about this. Officially, all non-ukrainians involved in the actual fighting are doing so on a volunteer basis; they're not being deployed there. The only Western military I know being ordered there are only there to train Ukrainians.
Australia is sending Bushmaster vehicles, though.
A week before the Ukrainian dam disaster, the Russian government approved a law prohibiting the investigation (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-smoking-gun-ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse-1805546) of "accidents at hydro-technical structures that occurred as a result of military operations, sabotage and terrorist activities" until January 1, 2028
That's either the world's biggest coincidence or a clear intent to do terrorist attacks and outlaw investigation into said terrorism.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 14, 2023, 10:46:57 AMI haven't heard anything about this. Officially, all non-ukrainians involved in the actual fighting are doing so on a volunteer basis; they're not being deployed there. The only Western military I know being ordered there are only there to train Ukrainians.
Australia is sending Bushmaster vehicles, though.
Report I saw said F-18s. I could be wrong, or the source wrong.
Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on June 14, 2023, 02:46:21 PMReport I saw said F-18s. I could be wrong, or the source wrong.
Yes, Ukraine made a request for Australian F-18s, probably about a dozen or so jets, which Australia is currently considering (https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/06/13/ukraine-australia-f18s/)
Sic' em!
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 14, 2023, 11:49:59 AMA week before the Ukrainian dam disaster, the Russian government approved a law prohibiting the investigation (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-smoking-gun-ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse-1805546) of "accidents at hydro-technical structures that occurred as a result of military operations, sabotage and terrorist activities" until January 1, 2028
That's either the world's biggest coincidence or a clear intent to do terrorist attacks and outlaw investigation into said terrorism.
Nothing says innocence like banning investigations into malfeasance.
Quote from: ferdmonger on June 15, 2023, 01:50:54 AMNothing says innocence like banning investigations into malfeasance.
Yep, nothing.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FypaMcKXsAIpkTH?format=png&name=medium)
Ukraine continues to strain Russian lines and take territory, albeit modest territorial gains. Though it should be noted that the Ukrainians have held onto their new gains - not a single Russian counterattack has un-liberated newly liberated villages, afaik.
What's really interesting is that Russian lines have yet to be seriously reinforced. Russia apparently no longer has the manpower to outmatch the Ukrainians. In that case, there is only one possible outcome to this war and the only variables left are how long it's going to take and how bloody it's going to be.
HIMARS O'CLOCK: Russian convoy reportedly hit by Himars strike (https://nitter.net/RALee85/status/1669007419769233411), ~100 KIA, ~100 wounded
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian Bradely reportedly took a direct hit by a Russian grad missile (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/15/7406966/). One Ukrainian soldier was mildly wounded, the vehicle is undergoing repairs and will be back in action soon.
Quite a difference in outcome in these two situations. One receives irrecoverable damages and death, the other is patched up and returns to the front.
Liberation of Blahodatne (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-liberates-blahodatne/)
QuoteThe brigade also reported capturing Russian soldiers, saying that "the information received from them would assist in the further liberation of the occupied Ukrainian territories."
Another article (which I won't be linking) describes the liberation in a lot more detail, but the photos are graphic so I will only take choice quotes and leave the rest to imagination:
QuoteDuring the liberation of the settlement, Ukrainian soldiers had to face rather strong resistance from the invaders.
It turned out that a fairly powerful garrison was stationed in the village – about 100 invaders.
Quote"The Russians who took up residence in the local House of Culture were the most stubborn," the military shared.
At first, the Ukrainian military offered them to surrender, but the Russians refused. Then, the military entered the first floor and cleared it quite quickly under the cover of fire with a large-caliber Browning M2 machine gun mounted on a MaxxPro armored fighting vehicle.
On the second floor, the Russians set up two positions in different rooms, which were quite difficult to approach. At first, the military wanted to pelt them with grenades, but there was a threat that the ammunition stored there would explode. Therefore, they decided to dismantle the brick wall with machine gun fire and enter through this hole. The other room was taken by storm.
A Russian soldier who committed suicide in order to not be captured was discovered on the couch.
Ukraine utterly annihilates Russian radar and electronic warfare system near Bakhmut with HIMARS (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/15/7407025/)
That headline might sound over the top, but pictures say a thousand words and this photo says 'completely destroyed' in a thousand languages.
The statement from Ukrainian forces is...ominous:
Quote"The fire destroyed enemy vehicles and almost all enemy manpower. Few managed to survive, but not for long...
Yikes. Not going to get a prisoner exchange out of that one.
There is a bit of Nazi-related history about how the Wagner group got its name. I never did care much for Wagner's music, being the antisemite that he was.
I wondered about the current Wagner, but didn't bother to check it out. They're supposedly fighting "NAZIs". I've always found it better to just tell the truth instead of making shit up likes these people do. It saves a lot of embarrassment, later.
QuoteAmong Russian President Vladimir Putin's many fantastical pretexts for invading Ukraine, the urgent need for its "denazification" may be the most preposterous. Ukraine isn't free of domestic extremists, but Putin's claims are pure disinformation. In fact, the Russian strongman has been supporting neo-Nazis and white supremacists for years, including mercenaries and separatists who have waged war on Ukraine since 2014.
Putin isn't fighting neo-Nazism. He nurtures it, making his gaslighting about Ukraine even more repellent.
Putin has condoned and enabled a transnational white supremacist network that stretches around the globe. It's one more instrument in the toolbox Moscow uses to divide democracies.
Perhaps Moscow's most notorious military proxy is the Wagner Group, mercenaries the Kremlin has used to wage deniable war and otherwise promote its interests in places like Syria, Libya and Mozambique. Recently the Wagner Group deployed to the Central African Republic, and it has shown up in Mali, where its brutal methods appear to be replacing previous efforts by the international community to fight terrorists active in the country.
The Wagner Group is named after the 19th century German composer Richard Wagner, whose music Adolf Hitler adored. The group's leader, Dmitry Utkin, reportedly wears Nazi tattoos, including a swastika, a Nazi eagle and SS lightning bolts. Wagner mercenaries are reported to have left behind neo-Nazi propaganda in the war zones where they've fought, including graffiti with hate symbols.
Source (https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/putin-nazi-pretext-russia-war-ukraine-belied-white-supremacy-ties-rcna23043)
Also, accusing others of what you are doing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accusation_in_a_mirror) is a textbook Nazi technique meant to distract and dilute such accusations when they inevitably come your way. So Putin begins by saying the Ukrainians are nazis and the NATO are warmongers so that when he promotes a similar far-right ideology and starts a war, people are left scratching their heads and wondering who to back in this seemingly he-said-she-said accusation and counter-accusation instead of coming to the obvious conclusion that Putin is in fact the warmonger and Putin is engaging in genocide.
For the first time, Israel is going to start exporting its famed Merkava tank (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/israeli-merkava-tank-has-possible-export-customer-in-europe) to two countries. They won't disclose the names of those countries, but said that one of them is in Europe.
Hmmm...
Sweden agrees to train Ukrainian pilots on Gripen (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-government-inks-24-mln-support-package-ukraine-2023-06-16/)
Putin must be gripen his bunker toilet and shitting bricks right now!
Ukrainian HOA demolishes illegal treehouse (https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1669335919235612673?cxt=HHwWgoC2zZGL1qouAAAA)
Someone's gotta think about property values around here.
One captured Russian soldier has a clue.
Sweden delivers 50 CV-90 IFVs to Ukraine (https://nitter.net/oryxspioenkop/status/1669428876898979847) (Ukrainian forces just finished training)
with Barracuda Thermal Camouflage System (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-spectral_camouflage), to boot!
These are very high mobility IFVs, able to travel rough terrain with ease - especially snowy or muddy terrain, which should come in handy in Ukraine
Russian milbloggers furious with Putin regime for troops waiting two hours for commander to give a speech, got promoted to cargo 200 instead (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18292)
QuoteProminent commentator Rybar, said: "A tragic incident occurred in one of the divisions that were about to go on the offensive. For two hours people stood in a crowd in one place and waited for the division commander to say his motivating words.
"But instead of him, the HIMARS MLRS and enemy artillery had their say.
QuoteTaking aim at the Kremlin's habit of glossing over major losses of troops, he added: "We are at war with our own stupidity and bullshit, smeared from above with beautiful reports."
Quote"If by the middle of the second year of the war there are commanders that carry columns to the front and build personnel in one big pile, and then wait for the enemy artillery to strike, then such commanders must be shot before the formation, even if they are colonels or even generals."
I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians wouldn't be opposed to that idea.
Awaiting this Pulitzer-prize winning film - recorded by two Ukrainians and a Parisian journalist and smuggled out of the city partially on cell phone - somewhat "eagerly" - it will be nice to have video from the scene of the crime to respond to propagandists with; they can deny it, but ultimately people who don't really read but just watch clips will see the reality anyways.
Not a movie I plan on watching all at once...
Also, an article The Moscow Times has left up since 2014... tells the story of a strangely familiar looking man, who may or may not be the Minister of Defense of the Donetsk People's Republic Igor Gerkin, with an incredibly dark past and a strange way of changing identities.
But surely this must not be real; after all, NATO was responsible for the war... not Russia!
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2014/11/21/russias-igor-strelkov-i-am-responsible-for-war-in-eastern-ukraine-a41598
Ukraine now controls the high ground NW of Bakhmut, making nearby Russian positions untenable (https://nitter.net/visegrad24/status/1670039970139058176?cxt=HHwWgMC9zaWglq0uAAAA)
Dictator Putin claims that President Zelenskyy is not a Jew, and paradoxically, that he is a disgrace to the Jewish people (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18371)
Putin is a straight-up Nazi. No doubt about it. No one says this kind of stuff who isn't a nazi.
Also, his "Jewish friends" are as fictious as Russia's claims to have destroyed a thousand HIMARS. Nazis don't have jewish friends, or non-nazi friends for that matter. Jews in Russia are in danger and a prominent Rabbi encouraged them to get out now before it's too late (https://www.timesofisrael.com/exiled-moscow-chief-rabbi-jews-should-leave-russia-before-they-are-scapegoated/).
Dictator Putin also says that Russia achieved one of its war aims because Ukraine is "largely demilitarized" because - and this is some supremely tortured logic (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/17/7407320/) - Ukraine is using western weapons more often.
In 2020, Ukraine had leftover soviet kit and some javelins. Now it has leftover soviet kit, stuff it has built during the war, generously "donated" equipment from Russia, and a plethora of western equipment, including advanced AA guns, IFVs, tanks, and cruise missiles. Hell, we might as well add ATACMS and jet fighters to that list because steps are underway to give Ukraine both of those.
And let's just apply some basic logic - Ukraine is retaking territory. That doesn't happen unless your military is doing just fine.
Invader forces in Kherson region and Crimea stricken with Cholera (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-units-in-kherson-oblast-and-crimea-stricken-in-cholera-outbreak-losing-combat-effectivene-50332646.html)
QuoteIt is known that several military personnel have already died. The cholera epidemic most likely arose due to the Russians using water from open sources. It is noted that they are facing difficulties in obtaining bottled or purified water.
In one day, Russia loses 4 companies along southern front (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407355/)
A company is 30-150 troops, so that's at least 120, probably more.
Quote77 units of enemy military vehicles were either destroyed or damaged.
Now that is a considerable loss, especially given Russia's limited ability to repair its vehicles.
Russia also lost 12 ammo storage points which is also big. Russian logistics struggles in Ukraine, so logistics losses are especially important.
Russian "authorities" complain that Ukrainian village called Piatykhatky was taken from them, later claim that Ukrainian attacks were repelled (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-forces-take-control-piatykhatky-village-zaporizhzhia-front-russian-2023-06-18/)
Explosions rip through Russian depot in Kherson region (https://news.yahoo.com/explosions-rip-russian-ammo-dump-085400374.html)
Reportedly exploded for hours.
I'd give a ruble to know if Vlad was feeling any angst about the misfortune he has bestowed upon his country.
Quote from: ferdmonger on June 19, 2023, 12:57:11 AMI'd give a ruble to know if Vlad was feeling any angst about the misfortune he has bestowed upon his country.
Doubful. On his appearances, he honestly comes across as a spiteful little man, driven to control everyone and everything around him and he's probably furious that his little dream of some sort of USSR 2.0 is crumbling in his fingers and is terrified of what that means for him.
Russia and Ukraine's relationship honestly comes across like a psycho Ex story.
I try not to link to twitter anymore, even its nitter frontend, because a lot of the comments are frankly vatniks and nutjobs who think that $8/month gives them equal say as Pulitzer-winning journalists.
But this is too juicy to pass up: Ukraine allegedly killed a high-ranking Russian deputy commander along with almost an entire battalion worth of troops while taking a village along the southern front (https://nitter.net/noelreports/status/1670522740783165442?s=46&t=IHl77h58PidHqGaGaN-8VA)
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 19, 2023, 01:04:19 AMDoubful. On his appearances, he honestly comes across as a spiteful little man, driven to control everyone and everything around him and he's probably furious that his little dream of some sort of USSR 2.0 is crumbling in his fingers and is terrified of what that means for him.
Russia and Ukraine's relationship honestly comes across like a psycho Ex story.
Yeah, major king george from Hamilton vibes.
Update: village of Piatykhatky liberated (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/19/7407437/)
The Russians complained about Ukraine taking it, then reversed course and said that the Ukrainian attack was repulsed. Last night, it came out that almost all Russians there were slaughtered, including their deputy commander.
So this is yet another instance of Russia lying, because Ukrainian forces waved the Ukrainian flag there today.
UK says that Russian assets will remain frozen until Ukraine is compensated for damages (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-plans-maintain-russian-sanctions-until-ukraine-is-compensated-2023-06-19/)
The UK also introduced a route for frozen assets to be donated to Ukraine and they currently hold $23 billion worth of Russian assets. Ukraine needs at least $400 billion, so that's a solid 1/20th of the total. Other NATO countries should follow suit, imho.
Great Value Goliath: Near the frontlines, the Russians sent a T-55 tank packed with explosives towards a Ukrainian position (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/18/the-russians-packed-a-robotic-t-55-tank-with-explosives-and-rolled-it-toward-ukrainian-lines/?sh=4943afaf2f86)
I guess they're really taking that orc epithet to heart, because that's straight out of Helm's Deep. It worked a lot better in the movies.
In reality, it hit a mine, which disabled it and Ukrainian anti-tank manpads finished it off. Huge waste of munitions and really highlights the desperation of Russian troops, who apparently can't man their own tanks. The T-55 is so poorly armored and equipped that it's only real utility is in using it as some third-rate fireship. Either way, it doesn't survive even one battle.
I missed these intercepted phone calls. They're remarkably frank compared to Kremlin statements and frequently contradict them. They continue to bear out the truth that Russian forces continue to receive heavy losses, Russian soldiers display a childish, unprofessional, and vaguely nihilistic attitude throughout, Russian commanders remain in a state of dread and panic and unable to control the situation, and both the Russian army and Wagner remain desperate for fresh meat for the grinder.
The Ukrainians released footage of them clearing a Russian trench in practically point blank fashion. It's SUPER NSFL so I won't even link the article linking to it. I only bring this up to highlight the disparity in training, equipment, and overall intelligence.
Apparently, the Ukrainians caught them completely by surprise and gunned them down at very close range while they were drawing their guns or running...somewhere, it's not clear exactly what they were trying to do.
QuoteThe Ukrainians appear to be equipped with high end NATO-standard kit and at least one fires a weapon similar to the US-made M4 assault rifle. In contrast, the Russian soldiers appear poorly-equipped in a hodge-podge of gear including old-model Russian army helmets, civilian t-shirts and running shoes. Repeatedly, the Russians' armored vests are defeated by the Ukrainians' bullets. Some Ukrainian media claimed that ten Russian soldiers died in the fight.
I can attest to the shoes, which I derisively called "tactical asics", complete with tracksuit pants and t-shirt. I thought for a second that maybe a civilian had wandered onto the frontlines, then I saw his rifle. The Ukrainian soldier had no such delay. Western training and Ukrainian bravery/grit appears to be paying off.
Ukraine develops and successfully uses 1000km range drone (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/20/7407684/)
It was first used on May 3rd on an oil refinery near the Crimean bridge, so it's been active for over a month and there are lots of targets to choose from.
Ukraine has lost less than 10% of provided Western equipment so far (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-lost-less-than-10-of-its-western-equipment-in-clashes-with-russia-estonian-intelligence-50332731.html)
Despite vatnik attempts, Ukraine has yet to lose a single Patriot or HIMARS (RIP lots of wooden HIMARS though)
Also, a lot of the Western-trained units are still in reserve, awaiting the results of probing attacks. Ukraine has yet to go full bore with its offensive.
Party like it's 1991: Kremlin officials more prone to drinking to drown their sorrows, showing up to meetings drunk (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/18/kremlin-officials-vodka-alcohol-ukraine-russia-war-stress/)
Quote"Not everyone used to start their day with a glass of vodka but now I know many more people who do. For some, a glass has turned into a bottle."
QuoteThe stories of excessive drinking among the elite tally with reports that purchases of vodka and anti-depressants have spiked since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine last year.
QuoteAccording to Verstka, government officials show no sign of slowing down their own consumption amid claims they are "missing or disrupting meetings, using illegal substances and attending events while drunk".
Ultracopium psychosis: Dictator-ruled Moscow claims that Ukrainian drones release anti-russian mosquitoes (https://nitter.net/visegrad24/status/1670724967053291520?cxt=HHwWgMCzqa7gza8uAAAA)
Somehow, the mosquitoes are supposed to differentiate between Russians and Ukrainians, possibly differentiating Russian nationals from people who are ethnically Russian but do not bow to a dictator. It's all very confusing and needlessly complex.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzIdlCkWcAEtpvl?format=jpg&name=small)
Seems like just yesterday, it was 3000. I guess when you smash 8-10 a day, it only takes a few months to stack an extra 1000.
Russia has now lost over half and probably closer to 2/3 of its tanks in Ukraine (https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/06/01/russia-lost-tanks-ukraine/). Even more conservative estimates (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/31/russias-tank-losses-in-ukraine-surpass-2000-osint-report-a81346) are still pretty grim for Russia, and reveals some glaring decision-making blunders that allowed Ukraine to achieve such a high kill count:
Quote"It doesn't appear at all that those huge material losses affected Russia's strategic thinking," Janovsky told The Moscow Times on Wednesday.
"Russia was already aware that it has problems, but decided to continue with the annexation of four Ukrainian regions in September," he said.
QuoteRussia launched its invasion of Ukraine with around 3,000 operational tanks and used predominantly modern equipment at the start of the war.
But as its tank losses have mounted, the share of "reactivated" older models engaged on the battlefield has been growing every month and is estimated to have reached 50%, the analyst said.
Afaik, Russia had over 3k operational tanks at the start of the war and between 4k-5k operational tanks in deep storage. So that's around 8k, tops. Ukraine has chewed through at least a third of that without a doubt and probably closer to half. And obviously, it's been disproportionately the better models, leaving Russia with a poor remainder:
Quote"Based on available information Russia can reactivate [around] 50 or maybe up to 100 tanks per month and make around 10 or 20."
So Russia can add 120 tanks max per month to its roster. That's about 4 a day. Well, Ukraine chews through around 8, sometimes as much as 12 or 13 a day. That's a 4-8 tanks/day deficit. That's roughly another 1500 to 3000 in the hole every year.
To say that's unsustainable is an understatement. At that rate, Russia will lose every last tank - even the vaunted T-34 parade tank - within 1-2 years.
More than eight explosions rock Melitopol (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/22/7408019/)
Bridge connecting Crimea to southern frontlines damaged by missiles (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/22/chonhar-bridge-linking-crimea-to-kherson-damaged-120-km-behind-the-lines/?swcfpc=1)
Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the south (https://news.yahoo.com/defence-forces-advance-south-conducting-170519661.html), pushing towards Melitopol and Berdiansk.
Notably, Russian forces have so far been unable to take back any lost territory along the southern front, despite reinforcements from abandoned Kherson region positions in the wake of Russian-orchestrated dam terror attack.
While lots of people, including me, anticipated a rapid assault and quickly folding Russian lines, that is not a realistic expectation. Ukraine has instead opted to focus on degrading Russian positions, followed by a more cautious, methodical advance to ensure the safety of its units as opposed to just bumrushing the defensive positions - as Russia has done - and taking crushing losses - as Russia has also done. In the heavily paraphrased words of Shigeru Miyamoto: "A delayed offensive is eventually good, but a rushed offensive is forever bad,"
As ISW notes (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21-2023):
QuoteThe overall slower than expected pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is not emblematic of Ukraine's wider offensive potential, and Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks. Ukrainian officials have long signaled that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would be a series of gradual and sequential offensive actions and have more recently offered the observation that currently ongoing operations do not represent the main thrust of Ukraine's counteroffensive planning.
While Ukraine is no doubt under intense pressure to achieve territorial gains to demonstrate its ability to win and thus more easily secure future aid, it's important to remember that the southern front is heavily mined and fortified and clearing this stuff will simply take time.
Besides, time is still on Ukraine's side. Abrams tanks are coming this fall. F-16s and Gripens and possibly ATACMS are coming next year. Ukraine is getting stronger all the time. So long as Ukraine continues to pound Russian positions with shells and missiles and drones, Russian positions weaken and it's only a matter of time until they break. This fight is only going to go one way, it's just a matter of time.
The bridge damage was more strategically significant than I initially thought. Apparently, 70% of the supplies sent by Russia to the southern front travel down that bridge.
Now they have to go around, which almost doubles the travel time. This is roughly equivalent to cutting their supplies in half or blowing up every other supply truck. If the supplies don't get there in time, it doesn't matter why - all that matters is that the guns aren't fed. After all,, bullets don't fly without supply.
And Ukraine has hit a bunch of significant logistics targets like that lately - transport infrastructure (trains, bridges) to supply depots to ammo dumps at Russian military bases. Ammo going pop left and right. And without it, Russian operations grind to an abrupt halt.
Mysterious explosion in temporarily-occupied Mariupol kills 4 Russian officers (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/23/7408158/)
Quote from Resistance: "Good morning! Today (23 June − ed.), [we] just greeted Ruscists near the port. Four officers were killed."
Wagner head directly contradicts Russian propaganda (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18609)
QuoteIn another profanity-laced 30-minute video posted on his personal Telegram channel, Prigozhin effectively declared that Russia's full-scale invasion and its ongoing war with Ukraine were illegal.
QuoteEqually damaging for Putin's enduring narrative that the invasion was to protect ethnic Russian in Ukraine, Prigozhin said that not only were those ethnic Russians under no particular danger prior to the full-scale war, but that following Russia's attack, the very people the Kremlin said Russia was fighting to protect, were now being killed or made refugees in the thousands.
QuotePrigozhin's declaration that Moscow fabricated false grounds for starting a war, with the implication that Russian officials involved in the conspiracy could necessarily be prosecuted as war criminals, matched almost exactly the established positions, of the White House and NATO, that Russia's invasion of Russia was an unprovoked war of choice.
QuoteThe diatribe called Russia's top military commanders led by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu "a bunch of cunning a**holes... degenerates... mentally ill... (and) scum." He went on to call the Russian army itself "a soap bubble."
I mean...he's not wrong...
Quote"Why did we need the war? We needed the war so that Shoigu could get a star," he said.
Burn! What I wouldn't give to see him rap battle Shoigu. 😂
Quote"We are drowning in our [own] blood. The AFU [Ukrainian Armed Forces] are advancing in Zaporizhzhia direction and the same is happening in Bakhmut. The enemy protects its equipment and soldiers, but it is not sparing ammunition. Time [for Russia] is rapidly running out," Prigozhin warned.
Drowning in blood. Quite poetic. He's not wrong there, either.
Of course, this is a political maneuver, aligning himself as the foremost Russian critic of the war so that when it all goes south, he's vindicated and continues to grow in power.
Assuming Putin doesn't have him killed before the war's end, there's a very real chance that he could become the next "President" of Russia.
Given his sledgehammer methods, I'm not entirely sure that'd be an improvement, but at least he appreciates the value of honesty - at least when it's politically advantageous - which is better than someone who lies about everything.
Prigozhin is going to end up with a plate of radioactive sushi, at the rate he's going.
Stabbed in the back: Wagner head accuses Russian army of attacking their bases (https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-accuses-russian-army-of-attacking-wagner-threatens-to-respond/)
Break out the popcorn, 'cause this is gonna be entertaining!
Quote from: Dark Lightning on June 23, 2023, 04:12:47 PMPrigozhin is going to end up with a plate of radioactive sushi, at the rate he's going.
I'm pretty sure he only eats teenagers, so he's safe from Putin's normal poisoning methods.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense just tweeted that they are watching this latest development closely (https://nitter.net/DefenceU/status/1672347167187509250)
(I assume that they are also enjoying popcorn)
Next, the Prig will want to defect and then turn on the Ukrainians.
Not to worry. The 'special operation' is all going according to plan, right Vlad?
Quote from: ferdmonger on June 23, 2023, 07:20:41 PMNot to worry. The 'special operation' is all going according to plan, right Vlad?
Oh yeah, things are going just fine (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142)
I swear, the internet is going to explode if Zelenskyy publicly asks Putin if he needs a ride.
Starting to wonder about those feints into other areas by forces aligned with anyone but the state a couple of weeks ago. Was that to test reaction by the citizenry? Wish I had a crystal ball.
This is why you don't arm criminals with tanks and guns. They may feel they have a better chance at staying alive against Russians than against the Ukrainian army.
Quote from: Cassia on June 23, 2023, 10:40:11 PMThey may feel they have a better chance at staying alive against Russians than against the Ukrainian army.
Considering Ukraine's new armaments, that's likely literally true.
Also, it just goes to show that you should never divide your command structure. Farming out army jobs to PMCs helped Putin disguise casualties and helped ensure that the military is disunited (understatement of the year) and never truly a threat to his power (in theory).
It also made Russia dependent on a PMC who was the only one consistently getting results. That opened the door to jealousy and internal conflict pretty quickly, especially when they started complaining about munitions shortages, essentially shifting the blame of their own losses to the Russian military. The two were on a collision course almost right away, just by the structure of the situation. There's something about this whole situation that reminds me of the Foundation books...
Wagner forces shoot down three Russian helicopters (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/pmc-wagner-mercenaries-shoot-down-three-helicopters-of-the-russian-air-force-overnight/)
*cooks popcorn over the flaming wreckage*
I was talking to my brother about this last night. Wagner attacking Russia is the best possible scenario for Ukraine. It means that Ukraine no longer has to fight Wagner forces plus whatever forces Russia has to commit to stop them. That's a huge loss of manpower for Russia.
It also raises the prospect of some invaders abandoning their defensive lines in Ukraine in order to deal with Wagner in Russia.
Russia has competent defenses along the southern front, but if those defensive lines were to be abandoned... Ukraine would have an incredibly easy time advancing. Even if only a fraction of the troops leave, it completely changes the situation.
This could potentially lead to the frontlines collapsing more quickly and easily than expected, saving thousands of lives and shortening the war by months.
Fingers crossed! 🤞
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 24, 2023, 06:59:10 AMI was talking to my brother about this last night. Wagner attacking Russia is the best possible scenario for Ukraine. It means that Ukraine no longer has to fight Wagner forces plus whatever forces Russia has to commit to stop them. That's a huge loss of manpower for Russia.
It also raises the prospect of some invaders abandoning their defensive lines in Ukraine in order to deal with Wagner in Russia.
Russia has competent defenses along the southern front, but if those defensive lines were to be abandoned... Ukraine would have an incredibly easy time advancing. Even if only a fraction of the troop
This could potentially lead to the frontlines collapsing more quickly and easily than expected, savings leave, it completely changes the situation.
thousands of lives and shortening the war by months.
Fingers crossed! 🤞
It's a shame; this is an opportunity for Putin to sacrifice Defense Minister Shoigu to get out of this losing war without shouldering total blame.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzXvAkYWIAAZejC?format=jpg&name=small)
Oh man, this is such a fast-breaking story that it's difficult to keep up!
A lot of it has been posted on telegram (lightning fast news, but not verified) as opposed to news sites, which typically lag for several hours, but I can generally trust.
So here's what we know for sure:
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2023/6/24/2c67083f-3a7d-44b5-a0b7-cd40d0d06ee4.png)
* Wagner has captured Rostov-on-Don, the Southern military HQ (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/rostov-on-don-why-russian-city-targeted-wagner-group)
* Wagner has fought some Russian military units on its the way to Rostov and Moscow. Afaik, Wagner has won every encounter and captured Russian military vehicles, equipment, and personnel. Apparently, a lot of the time, they're simply allowed to pass through with no resistance.
* Russian forces have fired on the Wagner convoy from the air, inflicting damage but failing to meaningfully slow the advance. Wagner forces have shot down at least 3 Russian helicopters.
* Wagner forces have marched on Voronezh and seized military sites there.
* Wagner forces continue to advance, now in Lipetsk oblast/region, only a few hours drive from Moscow.
* Wagner leader demands that Putin hands over Shoigu for public execution (I think I'm going to have to call off my earlier wish for a rap battle, unfortunately)
* It's Treason, Then: Putin has delivered a speech where he publicly brands Wagner leader Prigozhin a traitor (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-wagner-prigozhin-9acbdf1eda849692ca0423a4116058d1) and vows to punish Wagner. How exactly he plans on doing this is anyone's guess.
Putin has reportedly been calling other countries' leaders to brief them on the situation and garner support (with a notably weird interaction with Kazakhstan (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/putin-calls-kazakh-president-says-102942044.html)), though I don't understand what Putin expects to get out of such interactions. No one's coming to the rescue.
This is purely speculation and I could be totally wrong, but I suspect that Putin is shopping around for a place to hide. Wouldn't be the first time a nazi had to flee the country. But who would possibly host him?
One Russian bombing run reportedly hit a civilian vehicle while "attempting" to strike Wagner convoy (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/civilian-car-hit-instead-of-the-wagner-pmc-military-convoy-in-russia/)
The driver and passenger are reported as killed.
Another Russian bombing run reportedly hit the roadside, not the road.
QuoteTherefore, the effectiveness of such an attack is unknown, and no destroyed or damaged equipment is visible on the road.
Translation: complete fail, utterly moronic.
(https://i.imgur.com/1jLovoNl.jpeg)
Almost two weeks ago: Putin says no need to declare martial law in Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/13/russia-ukraine-war-live-massive-missile-attack-launched-on-city-of-kryvyi-rih-ninety-square-km-of-donetsk-retaken-says-kyiv)
Now: Putin preparing to declare martial law in Russia (https://defence-blog.com/kremlin-plans-to-declare-martial-law-in-russia/)
Iran: You're on your own (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408368/)
QuotePutin also had a telephone conversation with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Türkiye, to discuss the armed rebellion in Russia.
That's weird. Turkey is a NATO country and a key ally for Ukraine, both in providing arms to Ukraine and blocking the Black Sea to Russian warships. Still, its leader is on surprisingly cordial terms with Putin. What does Putin want from Turkey?
Supposedly, Wagner is going to stand down and turn around. Quite a 180.
I have no idea how this happened, but somehow Putin and Prigozhin worked out some sort of deal. Presumably, Putin no longer wants Prigozhin's head on a pike.
This is weird because there have been armed clashes between Wagner and the Russian military and Putin branded Prigozhin a traitor. I'm not sure that's something you can just take back.
Actually, nevermind (https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672658998057656320?cxt=HHwWgICzmeSfvbYuAAAA)
QuoteAccording to Russian media, "Prigozhin was offered to give up the idea of going to Moscow, and in response was offered the security of Wagner. They also promised to resolve the issue of Shoigu and Gerasimov,"
QuotePrigozhin confirmed there were negotiations but denied any agreements.
So until I see footage of Wagner turning around and heading back to Ukraine, the war between Wagner and the Russian military is still ongoing in my book.
So, wait. The mercenaries Russia brought in to help them conquer their neighbor are attacking the Russians, including maybe marching on Moscow with the purpose of shoving a live snake up Putin's ass?
I hope they use a cobra for that! 🤣
Asp
Quote from: the_antithesis on June 24, 2023, 02:59:33 PMSo, wait. The mercenaries Russia brought in to help them conquer their neighbor are attacking the Russians, including maybe marching on Moscow with the purpose of shoving a live snake up Putin's ass?
Yes, well Shoigu at least, not sure about Putin.
But no longer. Apparently, he accepted an offer by Lukashenko to move to Belarus instead. (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006860)
I very much doubt Putin will let him live, though. You don't almost commit a coup and live. I also think that more missiles will be sent towards Wagner troops, who will be systematically eliminated.
The shaman and MAGATS led a better insurrection attempt in DC.
^ Ain't over until it's over, and I've seen "news" where Prigo has secured nukes in places that Wagner has taken control of. Truly "interesting" times we're living in. 😣
It's over.
But it did both temporary and lasting damage. It disrupted Russia immensely for 24 hours, shot a moskva-sized hole through Kremlin war propaganda (contradicting Kremlin claims that it's not a war, that it's not a war of choice, and that Russian forces are winning), shot down several Russian helicopters and one aircraft (the current deathtoll is 15 Russian servicemen, which puts serious doubts on Prigozhin's claim to wanting to stop before blood was shed), demonstrated to the world that Putin's regime is very weak and Putin will absolutely run and hide at the slightest danger (in stark contrast to Zelenskyy famously taking a midnight stroll with his entire Cabinet at the onset of war and visiting hotspots like Bahkmut and Kherson)
And last but not least, it caused Russian construction workers to dig up roads to deny their use by Wagner forces only to start filling them in the next day, which is so delightfully counter-productive and idiotic that I just want to put a hot mic in front of those guys and listen all day to their songs of frustration - blyat this and blyat that. Downright angelic, lol.
This Wagner turn of events is one of the most confusing acts of warfare, I've ever heard of. Why would the most important arm of a dictator's military march on the Capitol and then just call it off? Are they trying to influence Putin's military strategies? And it seems unheard of to stage a coup on a ruthless dictator and then be given an amnesty. It's bizarre, and I've yet to read an opinion that adequately explains the method behind the madness, or more correctly, "the madness behind the method."
It seems like the entire New York Times Opinion page is sitting on their hands trying to understand the situation and unable to write in a sea of confusion. This must be what the staff at a mental institution has to deal with every day in the psycho ward.
There's a Chinese saying that "lead bullets will kill you, but silver bullets make everyone rich."
BANG!
AUGH!
I'M RICH!
THUD!
OK, I give up. Who is doing the blackmailing here?
This action makes sense when you consider one can't expect mercenaries to show any real commitment beyond a contract.
In Ukraine news (am I spelling that right? Haven't talked about that place in been a while. U-k-rain-e. Sounds weird!)
The Dnieper river has stopped flooding, resuming its normal flow.
Completely coincidentally, Ukrainian forces have crossed the river and attacked Russian positions.
Man, some warthogs would be amazing.
A Russian general's airplane goes down.
Shoigu hasn't been seen since going to Rostov-on-Don to handle the problem.
Shoigu is being replaced by the Govenor of Tuva.
Shoigu is definitely in great health.
New drone factory in Ukraine to produce Bayraktar drones, scheduled to open in 2025 (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18629)
The Russians aren't happy about it, but they have the power to make it a total waste just by going home.
It's going to take them 900 years to get the factory open!? 🤔
Hey dyslexia inst' a luaghign matetr.
Apparently, Wagner called off the march on the Kremlin because the Kremlin threatened their families (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-threatened-families-of-wagner-uprising-leaders-telegraph-2023-6)
Some real cartoon villainy on full display over there. :/
Also, I don't think we've heard the last of Wagner. While they will almost certainly be phased out in Russia and Ukraine (one less obstacle for the Ukrainians) - they reportedly either have to sign up with the regular military, go to Belarus, or go home - it's very strange that Belarus dictator Lukashenko wants to host a merry band of psychotic outlaws in his own territory, which has stability probelms of its own. It seemingly makes no sense.
The obvious rationale is that he wants a buffer against the regular Russian military who has set up shop there - Wagner hates them and vice versa, so it diminishes Russian influence over Belarus. If things get dicey with Putin, Lukashenko can just say the word...
Another possible reason is that Lukashenko might be collecting broken toys for use further down the line. He's long has his eye on Moscow rule, but never had the means to achieve it. Well, if Putin's rule were to weaken even further sometime - like let's say, when a certain "special military operation" collapses, he could simply repeat the march on Moscow with his new crew. Lukashenko might be accepted by Moscow elites while Prigozhin would definitely not. On the other hand, Prigozhin has the ability to take Moscow while Lukashenko does not. They make for natural allies and compliment each other well.
"A man with no motive is a man no one suspects. Always keep your foes confused. If they don't know who you are or what you want, they can't know what you plan to do next."
Also, I saw this stupid AF news blurb from, I think it was CNN, and it said that while Wagner is claimed to have around 25k troops on its march to Moscow, Russia has >800k troops at its disposal, especially if it starts calling up reservists and such.
It was such a moronic piece because:
1) no crap - no PMC on Earth outnumbers the full military might of its host country
2) very few Russian troops were apparently willing to fire on Wagner
3) almost the entire military of Russia (with notable exceptions like the Air Force) is in Ukraine right now, so Russia could have 50 bajillion troops and it wouldn't matter because their defensive posts are in Ukraine, not in Moscow.
It's such a friggin' stupid take. It'd be like me having a flat fire on the highway and saying that it's no big deal because I have like 50 spares in my garage. Totally irrelevant!
I'm still trying to understand what hat march on Moscow was all about. I've heard the Wagner comments that it was not a coup attempt. Moscow says otherwise. And then is satisfied to let Wagner go, as if it was no big deal. It seems like lamest face saving strategies I've ever heard. Usually some expert is supposed to step in and say, "Here's what happened."
In lieu of that, and working from a serious lack of understanding, I would say neither Putin or Wagner knew what the Hell they were doing. This is perplexing, because in any coup (and yes this was a coup) both sides need an objective, a means, and a strategy. You don't stick your tongue out at a bully and run away, if you realize the bully will kill you. This is not the same thing as two macho drunks in a bar pretending to threaten each other, just to see who blinks first.
Alternatively Putin's army was too preoccupied with the Ukraine offensive to put together a counter attack on Wagner forces, but why would Wagner back down under those conditions? They had second thoughts once the coup started? But that doesn't sound like the way Wagner is known to operate... But maybe it's actually typical, but we are never told about it.
Whether there is an expert out there who knows what's going on or not, there are missing parts to this story. Watching it has been both comical and scary for me. Global bullies bumbling is not a reassuring environment.
I don't consider it a real coup attempt because they are mercenaries with no real ideology or commitment other than being tired of getting shot at from behind and deprived of supplies by the Russian military. So yeah, just a phone call is all it took. These guys have fvcked-up personal reasons for being hired killers. Being shit-on be Russia's military probably did inspire some solidarity amongst them.
Lukashenko said that the events that took place in the south of Russia were painful to watch, but then said that "there are no color revolutions if there are no reasons for this in the country (https://www.oreanda-news.com/en/v_mire/lukashenko-ordered-to-bring-the-army-into-full-combat-readiness/article1479947/)."
Of course, it's not a color revolution of any sort and he knows this. He's implying that Putin's reign is causing its own rebellions, which is true, but it's a very ballsy thing to say. If you read between the lines a little, he's calling Putin an inept ruler and since apparently Belarus and Russia are one, he's offering himself for the job.
He's lucky that his statements don't normally attract much notice, because this could be interpreted almost as a threat.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 27, 2023, 08:01:34 AMLukashenko said that the events that took place in the south of Russia were painful to watch, but then said that "there are no color revolutions if there are no reasons for this in the country (https://www.oreanda-news.com/en/v_mire/lukashenko-ordered-to-bring-the-army-into-full-combat-readiness/article1479947/)."
Of course, it's not a color revolution of any sort and he knows this. He's implying that Putin's reign is causing its own rebellions, which is true, but it's a very ballsy thing to say. If you read between the lines a little, he's calling Putin an inept ruler and since apparently Belarus and Russia are one, he's offering himself for the job.
He's lucky that his statements don't normally attract much notice, because this could be interpreted almost as a threat.
Like you mentioned earlier, maybe he has designs of his own.
Challenging Putin for his job is probably not best for one's health right now. I think it might be a better idea down the road.
The last thing I'll say about this almost-coup is that a certain company missed a golden opportunity to come out with a "you're not you when you're hungry" commercial
"Will Putin invade the Ukraine?"
Yes.
Far from the first time this sort of red-on-red incident has happened. One time, it was from a "flamethrower" unit, a MLRS which fires rockets equipped with incendiary/thermobaric warheads. Needless to say, not great for morale.
Reportedly, even though a lot of the Ukrainains received abbreviated Western training and maybe didn't even have prior combat experience prior to volunteering in these counteroffensive brigades, they still operate more akin to NATO forces than anything else. This means proper communications and tactics. Incidents still happen, but it's not a common thing.
This is a far cry from Russian forces, who typically have a lot less to work with. And the skewed casualty lists don't do them any favors. From what I've seen so far, the Ukrainian military receives less casualties than the Russian invaders and those injuries are much less likely to be lethal. This means that Ukraine hangs on to more of their seasoned veterans, while Russia...not so much. And all else being equal, rookies are more likely to make these sorts of mistakes than the vets.
Thus, Russian forces are far more likely to self-denazify, saving Ukrainians the headache while creating further vulnerabilities along the frontline.
Russian General Sergei Surovikin arrested by Putin regime (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/28/russian-general-arrested-following-wagner-mutiny-mt-russian-a81685) in connection to Wagner march on Moscow
You might remember Surovikin for being in charge of Russia's war in Ukraine from November 2022 to January 2023, when he was replaced by Gerasimov. Embarrassingly, he had to give Kherson back to the Ukrainians as a gesture of goodwill, which explains his brief tenure.
Evidently, the Ukrainians no longer have to hunt him down, because Putin did their work for them. Dictators tend to be helpful like that.
He's just one of a number of military officials (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18817) who may have supported Wagner's march on Moscow. So hopefully, Putin will fall into a dictator's habits and start a roundup, further hollowing out Russia's leadership, perhaps to Ukraine's favor.
Another reason why Ukraine will win:
They're willing to endure great hardships and things that would terrify most people in a calm, deliberate manner.
Because they fight for each other. The Russians do not.
Edit - here's him on a happier day:
(https://i.imgur.com/Nrf29Ynl.jpg)
Skill issue (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-soldier-wounded-but-russia-snipers-still-failed-to-hit-2023-6?utm_source=reddit.com)
Despite all my rage, I am still just a vatnik in a cage (https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1674350355763589120?s=20)
(https://nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FFzx8w_FXwAMMDYD.jpg)
Welded to the hull, not the turret, so the turret has a very limited range of motion. :/
It's amazing that such an engineering marvel found its way into Ukrainian hands [/sarcasm]
Jeez. They must have hella big mosquitos.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 29, 2023, 11:00:38 AMDespite all my rage, I am still just a vatnik in a cage (https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1674350355763589120?s=20)
Welded to the hull, not the turret, so the turret has a very limited range of motion. :/
It's amazing that such an engineering marvel found its way into Ukrainian hands [/sarcasm]
That's gotta be just for when they are sitting around for long periods. Otherwise, can they really be that stupid?
When people are in a dangerous situation and distressed, they often do irrational things that give them psychological relief, even if they aren't effective. Imho, these cope cages are no different than people hoarding toilet paper during covid - it makes them feel safe even though it does very little to provide actual safety.
Putin hopes that Wagner "didn't steal much" of the money the Kremlin spent on them (https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-hopes-prigozhin-wagner-did-not-steal-much-of-billions-2023-6)
Prigozhin in Minsk:
(https://media.tenor.com/DQFY5mY132wAAAAC/joker-parade.gif)
I mean, they're mercenaries. It's not like they responsibly put that cash in a bank and then give it back to you when you ask politely. I'd imagine they spend it all on gear and supplies and whatever's left on vodka and women or gambling. That money is long gone!
Infighting looms between Russia's FSB (counter-intelligence) and Ministry of Defense (https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-war-between-fsb-and-russian/)
Quote"Our assessments indicate that this has become an open conflict between the competing factions within the Kremlin," said Chernyak.
"It's likely to result in physical eliminations of representatives from the competing side."
Translation: "meat's back on the menu"
QuoteChernyak added that high-ranking Russian officials recognize that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's hold on power is slipping, and they are attempting to leverage this to increase their own influence.
"Putin is no longer able to maintain control or balance these factions; both the FSB and the Ministry of Defense recognize this as an opportunity to secure a political victory," he said.
So...this is a thing.
His cult of personality people say that Putin is an 11-dimensional chessmaster. I dunno, it doesn't look like he has yet mastered two dimensions. Perhaps he is using a marker because he already ate the crayons.
Not to brag, but I could draw better than that. Granted, not much better, but at least it wouldn't look like Clayface on shrooms.
At least Hitler could have theoretically quit his day job to pursue an artistic career. No such luck for Mad Vlad, surrounded by sycophants who would applaud anything. Russia is becoming more like North Korea by the day.
Ukraine is once again asking for ATACMS (US long-range missiles) and the US is once again considering it. The situation is distressingly like Treebeard and the hobbits.
Coincidentally, Ukraine has just published the location of a new Russian base in the Crimea region, a place called Feodosia, roughly 280km from the frontlines. ATACMS has a range of ~300km, so...hint hint. They might as well have put this two-headed bird on a silver platter and asked to borrow the US's knife (they already have a fork).
Apparently, anyone can post whatever crackpot ideas they want on Newsweek as an Op-ed (https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-coup-was-staged-putin-west-fell-it-opinion-1810035)
QuoteNone seemed to realize the obvious truth: The coup was staged, and completely faked false flag operation.
Think about it: An army invades Russia, race right up to Moscow, and no one gets hurt? With just a few thousand men, it achieved what Hitler with almost a million men wasn't able to? And Putin holds his military back? And then, with Moscow supposedly within his grasp, Prigozhin decides, "Oh well, never mind" and heads to Belarus?
1) 15 Russian servicemen died, Russia lost several helicopters and a very important, very limited aircraft. A couple of Wagner vehicles were heavily damaged. At least two civilians died as collateral damage. Either this is the most realistic fake ever or it was a real armed confrontation.
2) Very different situation than World War 2, obviously.
3) Yes, the Russian military did very little because a) some of them have Wagner sympathies b) no one really knew which way the wind was blowing, so better to wait it out and live than risk your life, both in the engagement and afterwards, potentially drawing the wrath of whoever is now in charge.
Her evidence that it was a false flag: it didn't "make sense" to her.
Newsflash, lots of things in the world don't make sense: British cuisine, the platypus, daylight savings time, the careers of Milli Vanilli, the French counting from 80 to 99, etc.
Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it's not real!
RIP Vanilli
Ukrainian forces assault trenches near Klishchiivka, just south of Bakhmut, take prisoners (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/29/frontline-report-ukraine-captures-stranded-airborne-company-near-bakhmut-uses-increasibly-flexible-tactics/)
QuoteThe assault was quite short, and the first line of defense was breached with no hurdles, which is why Ukrainians immediately started pushing further.
QuoteAs you might expect, it is extremely difficult to navigate inside a trench network because it is effectively a labyrinth. However, looking from above reduces the complexity virtually to zero. Ukrainian drone operators continuously notified the troops on the ground about the number of Russian soldiers in front of them, the movement of these soldiers, how many turns they are away from them, and especially when Russians were reloading. A group of Russians that started reloading simultaneously immediately got charged and killed.
(https://img.tineye.com/result/dac43ef7dc2ddbeb80966ebc892bafceb1b0d2644880acd83f2168a123a08cd1-39?size=240)
*taking cover, suppressed by enemy fire*
Certain death...this guy is definitely going to get me...
*enemy reloads*
...Uncertain death
*pops out from cover and shoots the enemy*
Video version of the same news:
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 29, 2023, 03:37:10 PMPutin hopes that Wagner "didn't steal much" of the money the Kremlin spent on them (https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-hopes-prigozhin-wagner-did-not-steal-much-of-billions-2023-6)
Prigozhin in Minsk:
(https://media.tenor.com/DQFY5mY132wAAAAC/joker-parade.gif)
I mean, they're mercenaries. It's not like they responsibly put that cash in a bank and then give it back to you when you ask politely. I'd imagine they spend it all on gear and supplies and whatever's left on vodka and women or gambling. That money is long gone!
The money found in the van seems a bit suspicious.
Storm-Z unit (prison conscripts) suffers enormous casualties, refuses further orders in viral video (https://www.newsweek.com/video-russian-troops-refuse-orders-meat-grinder-front-line-1810012)
Among their complaints was their poor living conditions. The roof certainly needed work in the latest video. I couldn't help but notice the gaps. Apparently, I wasn't the only one to familiarize myself with it, because the Ukrainian Airforce was able to geolocate their building (https://charter97.org/en/news/2023/6/30/554051/) (intact brick buildings near the frontlines kinda stick out) and was able to do some roof work of their own. Repairs are no longer necessary. Concerns about casualties are likely less numerous but more intense. They should georelocate back to Russia as soon as possible so they can complain in peace.
I've noticed that lately, the Ukrainians have been using very advanced tactics to preserve their units from enemy fire and to lure Russian forces into completely unlivable situations, enabling comparatively small and somewhat outgunned Ukrainian units to punch far above their weight class.
In particular, the Ukrainians are getting quite good at baiting Russian artillery to strike, but after the smoke clears, the Russians find out they hit nothing. Meanwhile, the armor drove over landmines, the infantry walked over friendly landmines, and whoever was on that boat just got promoted to cosmonaut.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 01, 2023, 11:56:16 AM
I've noticed that lately, the Ukrainians have been using very advanced tactics to preserve their units from enemy fire and to lure Russian forces into completely unlivable situations, enabling comparatively small and somewhat outgunned Ukrainian units to punch far above their weight class.
In particular, the Ukrainians are getting quite good at baiting Russian artillery to strike, but after the smoke clears, the Russians find out they hit nothing. Meanwhile, the armor drove over landmines, the infantry walked over friendly landmines, and whoever was on that boat just got promoted to cosmonaut.
Russians probably assume a long war of attrition favors them because the West has a short attention span.
Quote from: Cassia on July 01, 2023, 12:38:50 PMRussians probably assume a long war of attrition favors them because the West has a short attention span.
The West does have a short attention span. It also has a if-it-bleeds-it-leads 24/7 media and lots of Russian horror to report. Ukraine still dominates international headlines even a year later and those aid packages keep coming. Russia seriously miscalculated all three of its major assessments - its own capabilities, Ukraine's capabilities/resolve, and Western willingness to lend aid long-term.
Quote from: Hydra009 on June 30, 2023, 12:59:12 AMHer evidence that it was a false flag: it didn't "make sense" to her.
Yikes!
The Ukrainians have made solid progress to the north and south of Bakhmut. They appear to be trying to surround Bakhmut to force the enemy to leave the city or be completely cut off from supplies and reinforcements. This is something Russia tried and failed to do.
Noticing the danger, the Russians are currently sending more troops to reinforce the Bakhmut front.
This presents a problem (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-ukraines-advances-near-bakhmut-may-create-deployment-dilemma-for-russians/), since troops are being moved from the southern front, which is also under attack. The Russians no longer have enough forces to fully protect everywhere, leaving vulnerabilities.
For example, the Ukrainians have now established a bridgehead across the Dniper river after luring Russian forces into deadly ambushes and several brutal friendly-fire incidents. Ukrainian forces are kept at bay only by the threat of Russian artillery and their current lack of ability to move heavy armor across the river. They're currently focused on silencing those guns, and when they do, they'll have free reign over a somewhat poorly-defended region, a path straight to Crimea, and the ability to move tanks south of the river which can then either attack Crimea (cutting the supply route from Crimea to the rest of Russian-occupied Ukraine) or create a western flank along the Zaporizhzhia front.
Ukraine will likely start sending in its reserves very soon, putting even more pressure on the frontline. Depending on where they're deployed, they could either shore up Ukrainian gains by matching Russian reinforcements or they could trigger a major breakthrough in an area that the Russians didn't reinforce.
Today, the Ukrainians are advancing in the south (https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-defense-minister-ukrainian-army-advances-in-2-southern-directions/), while the Russians are advancing somewhat in the east
(the above video NOT in english, I'll replace it with a more easily-digestible english language version when it becomes available, but I came across it on Telegram (https://t.me/United24media/11120) and it's too golden to pass up)
You can follow along on auto-translate, but essentially Zelenskyy is saying that Putin is in more danger than he is because only Russia wants to kill Zelenskyy but the whole world wants Putin dead.
He's not wrong. And after the Wagner fiasco, it's apparent that Putin is perhaps even more disliked than Zelesnkyy in some people's minds there and is certainly a much more accessible target.
Russian milblogger posts are something else!
(https://i.imgur.io/fiQtlck_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
I fear I must translate the translation, but they're saying:
1) The Ukrainians have superior manpower
2) The Ukrainians have superior organization (not sure exactly what they mean about that, likely communications/coordination)
3) The Ukrainians have the right tools for the job (minus the F-16s and ATACMS, of course)
4) Russian forces lack the proper equipment
That's quite a damning assessment, especially coming from a Z-ombie!
This is about the Ukrainian advance across the Dniper river. The Russian thinking is that this territory must be retaken soon, before it becomes an even greater threat. Yet they openly express doubt in the Russian military to effectively handle this threat (which seems to flow logically from #1-4)
Ukrainian forces advance towards Robotyne (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/02/frontline-report-ukrainian-47th-brigade-breaches-russian-defenses-near-robotyne-on-southern-front/)
This front is a tough nut to crack, filled with extensive trenches, minefields, and still heavily garrisoned. What's more, there are other defensive lines behind it. This is very difficult fighting, yet they are making steady progress. They've even started repairing that group of armored vehicles lost to Russian bombardment, which indicates that they've progressed enough that this area of previously intense fighting is now relatively safe and secure.
The Russians say they are repelling Ukrainian attacks successfully, yet they always seem to be repelling attacks further and further south and there is no further news for these "successfully" defended areas. Very curious.
Another curious thing is that Russia claims low casualties, yet their mobile crematoria are hard at work near Melitopol, burning a lot like they did during the height of the battle for Bakhmut. They apparently don't record deaths in order to avoid having to pay death benefits. Putin's yacht appreciates it.
In more reliable news, along the southern front, the Ukrainians claim to have destroyed a Ka-52 helicopter today and also inflicted 3 companies worth of casualties (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3730828-russians-lost-almost-three-companies-in-tavriia-sector-over-past-day-general-tarnavskyi.html) (90 to 450, probably 200-300ish) over the last 24 hours.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0AoMFLXoAAIhrM?format=jpg&name=900x900)
With those sorts of losses recorded every day (usually something like 500-600 troops, around 10 tanks, 20-30ish artillery), it's just a matter of time until Russia starts running out and its positions further weaken.
Zed-Head arrested at Italian airport (https://corrieredeltrentino.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/23_luglio_01/ucraina-arrestato-il-foreign-fighter-di-rovereto-alessandro-bertolini-combatteva-in-donbass-con-i-filorussi-d9119827-4082-4bce-bf62-dd750650fxlk.shtml)
Source is in italian, but here's a crude translation:
QuoteUkraine, arrested Rovereto-based foreign fighter Alessandro Bertolini. He was fighting in Donbass with the pro-Russians.
Twenty-nine-year-old Alessandro Bertolini, who revealed political sympathies for Forza Nuova to Rai, is now in jail in Busto Arsizio
He did not have time to set foot on Italian soil, and was immediately arrested by the Carabinieri Ros as soon as he landed at Malpensa airport. So it went for Alessandro Bertolini, the Rovereto-based foreign fighter under investigation by the Anti-Mafia and Anti-Terrorism District Directorate of Genoa, who has been a fugitive for years along with other pro-Russian Italians engaged in fighting in Donbass. The 29-year-old was questioned but used the right of non-answer. Defended by lawyer Massimiliano Luigi Scialla, he is now in jail in Busto Arsizio (Varese), while his case will be followed by the Genoa court. A preliminary hearing is scheduled for next September.
Note that he had sympathies with Forza Nuova, an Italian Neo-Nazi organization. Strange that such an ardent nazi would be fighting for Putin...
Chechen commander dies in Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/3/7409644/)
I saw this on telegram a while ago, but I had to wait for the news channels to pick it up. Plus, you would not believe how hard it is to search for this guy on google. The last name is a famous Olympic athlete and the first name is an equally infamous Putin chef.
The Russians wasted no time with suspiciously over-the-top praise as if the dude was some sort of saint or something. From the outside, he's just another body who got swept up in Putin's failing war of aggression and got killed pointlessly. He was definitely just another body to Putin.
Quotehe volunteered for the front to protect the inhabitants of Donbass.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3YC1ccWAAEE_d1.png)
Ukraine again blew up multiple grad mrls with a single artillery strike. Both caught fire, fired missiles randomly, then exploded. It was quite dramatic. If I had a nickel for every time this had happened on film, I'd have four or five nickels.
Russia is minus 770 troops, 32 artillery, and 6 mrls over the past 24 hours. When the Ukrainians said they were focusing on counter-battery fire, they weren't joking!
No details yet, but the southern and eastern battles appear to favor Ukrainian forces.
There is a slight delay on specifics so as to not give intel to the enemy, so it's not like I can give completely up-to-date information, but Russian telegram channels are panicky about Bakhmut and plead for emergency reinforcements.
Also, along the southern front, the Russians' first line of defense is either collapsing or has already collapsed. I remain cautiously optimistic.
I'll post details later as they appear.
Edit - south of Bakhmut, the Ukrainians advanced up to 1.5km, past a Russian fortification. This is only possible if that fortification had fallen to the Ukrainians. Encouraging news.
According to Russian milbloggers, Russian forces have left Klishchiivka (small town just SSW of Bakhmut)
This corroborates with Ukrainian sources reporting partial success at Klishchiivka (https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-forces-gain-ground-near-074600329.html), who are in the process of securing the ceded ground.
This puts Bakhmut under Ukrainian fire control (enemy forces cannot move freely there without incuring great risk)
Bakhmut is slipping from their fingers.
Russia to send more convicts and chechens to make up for loss of Wagner (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-04/russia-eyes-chechens-and-convicts-to-fill-gaps-left-by-wagner)
Wagner was kind of a mixed bag of poor-quality convicts and a much smaller core of highly trained (by Russian standards) and equipped (by Russian standards) soldiers. Their methods were incredibly brutal and sacrifical, but they did advance, albeit on the bodies of their comrades.
You can't just grab some tik-tokers and convicts and hand them a rifle and expect them to perform half as well.
The Chechens who were previously deployed to Ukraine shot laughable propaganda videos of them shooting up abandoned buildings or trees or the ground and pretending that they were war heroes. Those videos got considerably less PG over time as they were interrupted by sniper fire or explosions. Suffice it to say that it was not a good look.
Man, my feed has really been blowing up today!
Lots and lots of footage of Ukrainian artillery strikes. One of them was a Death Star-like explosion of a Russian ammo depot near Makiivka (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/05/ukraine-confirms-destruction-of-russian-ammo-depot-in-occupied-makiivka/). Apparently, it was a newly-arrived stockpile intended to help the Russians push back the Ukrainian advance along the eastern front. Suffice it to say those plans are cancelled. Quite a few health insurance plans likely got cancelled as well.
Quite a lot of short videos of Russian vehicles going pop as well. One was the very formidable T-90 tank that could easily be mistaken for a zippo lighter requesting freebird. No repairing or salvaging that one, I'm afraid. It's only useful for growing sunflowers now.
The Ukrainians also appear to be hard at work clearing trenches along the eastern front, likely near Klishchiivka, moping up the stragglers who continue to fight but taking prisoners when possible.
"I believe you have something that belongs to me" (https://news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-arrives-st-petersburg-takes-092701789.html)
QuoteAccording to Fontanka, the motorcade was parked near Shpalernaya Street, 25. The back door of the BMW opened, Yevgeny Prigozhin got out and, after walking just a few metres, opened the massive doors with the sign 'Reception' to the right of them.
QuotePrigozhin was returned two Saiga rifles, an Austrian Steyr Mannlicher rifle, an AR semi-automatic rifle and several other rifles and pistols.
Soon he got out, and the people accompanying him took out their rifles and put them in the car. The motorcade left.
This was in St Petersburg, btw.
That's a helluva power play. This guy fell out of a window and onto a velvety soft mattress.
According to ISW, the power struggle between Putin and Prigozhin (and maybe Lukashenko) is far from over. There's a chance that he may pay Moscow a visit again.
Can't we just go back to the good old days when a tiny pellet filled with conch shell poison took care of the problem?
Russians mysteriously die in occupied Mariupol (https://news.yahoo.com/russians-die-under-mysterious-circumstances-095451323.html)
QuoteAccording to an unnamed Russian officer, who is now located in Mariupol, eight soldiers were found murdered in different parts of the city over the past two weeks: six of them were stabbed, two shot in the back of the head.
According to the officer, the facts of deaths are carefully concealed so that panic does not begin among the Russian units.
(https://preview.redd.it/from-the-melitopol-partisans-v0-sm1lhkzq8k491.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=cfc45d80a1fd0a35c559835519b71581ebb730bf)
(https://64.media.tumblr.com/8f552a1d47216108547bf308c838d0f8/274ccd8d5311eb8d-5b/s1280x1920/8ea83379d33d363669d85d5c06215f4d99888d66.jpg)
I mean, you could literally see this coming...
In other indications that things are going according to plan for Russia, they're deploying even more reserve units to Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-intelligence-russia-re-deploys-units-from-its-strategic-regions-to-ukraine/)
QuoteThe report said that the defense around Bakhmut is mostly composed of elite airborne regiments that are normally stationed in western Russia as a rapid reaction force in case of tensions with NATO.
This puts the lie to the claim that Russia is threatened by NATO and worried about NATO invasion, because if that were so, deploying in western Russia would be top priority. Especially because of certain PMC activity there...
QuoteThe 5th Combined Arms Army and Naval Infantry that are holding the front around Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast are routinely based 7,000 km away near the Chinese border to balance out Beijing's military power in the area, the report added.
Now this is ballsy. Like Russia, China clearly has territorial ambitions and already provocatively renamed Russian border towns by their old Chinese names. Leaving that border poorly guarded is just asking for trouble. But I guess Putin is willing to risk it by going all in and betting everything on Ukraine.
So far, this gamble has been going poorly. Even though about 97% of Russian forces are in Ukraine, Russia has already taken so many combat losses that its combat strength has been halved.
Ukraine now fields more tanks than Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-ukraine-fields-more-tanks-than-russia/)
This is based on confirmed Russian tank losses, which by definition is very conservative and less than actual losses. Though of course, Ukraine needs more armor in order to win more comfortably and timely, and also to reduce losses.
Russia still has more (but not better) artillery and mrls. It also retains a superior airforce.
But production is much less than consumption - Russia is burning through its stockpiles at a prodigious rate:
Quote"Last year it fired 10 million artillery shells but at best can produce 1 million shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and at best can produce 200 tanks a year," he said at the British Parliament.
Every year of war wipes out over a decade of production.
US to expected to approve sending cluster munitions to Ukraine (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/world/europe/ukraine-cluster-munitions.html)
Cluster bombs are different from normal bombs in that the main bomb releases a bunch of smaller bombs - usually in the air above the target, which then (hopefully) explode. The reason they're banned is that the smaller bombs don't always explode, so the area can be very dangerous for decades, especially for any civilians walking by. Because of this, over 120 countries have banned cluster bombs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions) (technically, 111 signed and ratified that treaty, while 12 more have signed but not ratified it)
An attentive eye will notice that neither the US, Russia, nor Ukraine signed that treaty, so these countries using cluster munitions is not technically prohibited. In fact, Russia has already been using cluster munitions extensively in this war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Use_of_cluster_bombs_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), and unlike Ukraine, has specifically targeted civilian population centers.
Ukraine needs them for their obvious utility in clearing out Russian trenches and other fortifications, saving the lives of their own troops who would otherwise need to storm the trenches, incurring losses. Ukraine could also take apart the cluster bombs in order to use the smaller bombs as ammo for their drones.
Zelenskyy: Don't be surprised if Chechen leader marches on Kremlin (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/6/7410172/)
When the convoy raced towards the Kremlin, the Chechens were quick to react but suspiciously slow on the scene (they claimed that they were stuck in traffic, which is strange because usually civilians try to take the routes away from the military confrontation, not towards it).
In any case, the Chechens would've been too slow to intervene (perhaps by design) but fast enough to become part of the new order (perhaps also by design)
The fact that Prigozhin can simply stroll into Russia even after exile without consequences tells you everything you need to know about Putin's tenuous rule.
Ukraine officially takes Klishchiivka (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukrainian-forces-make-further-gains-south-of-bakhmut/)
They continue to advance around Bakhmut, steadily forcing the Russians to pull back or be destroyed.
USA officially agrees to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-send-ukraine-cluster-munitions-nato-makes-membership-pledge-2023-07-07/)
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/GrippingAshamedBinturong-size_restricted.gif)
120 countries have banned the cluster bombs because they don't want to waste all that resources and manpower, and then look like complete idiots when they miss one and mother of a couple of toddlers die.
Fighting resumes in Bakhmut (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-13/)
The small city is of tremendous symbolic value to Russia, which sees its loss as politically unacceptable. However, Russian forces are unable to hold their positions, ceding more and more ground to Ukraine.
QuoteThe U.K. Defense Ministry attributed this to "struggling with poor morale, a mix of disparate units and a limited ability to find and strike Ukrainian artillery."
The common theme in all three of those problems is tremendous losses (the Russians used human wave attacks to take Bakhmut in the first place, incurring so many losses that it collapsed their entire offensive). Additionally, the recent unusually devastating logistics strikes have given Ukrainian forces a huge tactical advantage.
Russian Mig-31 crashes into the Pacific Ocean just off the Russian coast (https://www.newsweek.com/mig-crash-reported-russian-aircraft-detected-alaska-1810850)
This happened a few days ago, and it's unclear if the two pilots survived or not. But with this much time at sea, probably not.
Zelenskyy just spent the 500th day of the war visiting Snake Island, the scene of the famous "Russian warship go f*$k yourself" act of defiance.
Russia captured the island, then was put under increasing artillery pressure, and finally was forced to abandon it as a "goodwill gesture" a year ago. If I recall correctly, one of the evac helicopters was hit by Ukrainian artillery and failed to make it out. Such a shame...
Russia then used planes to bomb the island, but had to do several bombing runs because the first couple tries embarrassingly missed (no wonder they target apartment buildings). After using their own munitions to burn their own equipment, they left victoriously.
Ukrainian forces eventually returned to the island and replanted the Ukrainian flag but didn't garrison any troops there because they're not idiots. So it has remained abanonded by both sides ever since.
Zelenskyy brings home 5 Mariupol commanders from Turkey (https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-zelenskiy-brings-home-azovstal-153155892.html)
Technically, they were supposed to stay in Turkey until the end of the war, but I guess maybe the deal was changed.
...or maybe not.
The Kremlin says that Ukraine/Turkey violated the agreement (https://kyivindependent.com/putins-spokesperson-blames-ukraine-turkey-for-violating-agreement-as-azovstal-commanders-return-home/) to keep the Ukrainian commanders in Turkey until the end of the war.
Oh well, a deal involving Russia is bound to be violated one way or another eventually, though it is surprising to see the roles reversed.
Previously, Russia has violated the grain deal several times, smuggled military hardware into the Black Sea against Turkey's wishes, did a weird stunt where Ukrainian POWs were dumped in Hungary for some reason, and of course, the Budapest memorandum (a now infamous treaty which had Ukraine give up its nukes in exchange for a pledge from Russia to not invade its territory) Russian soldiers have also shot at Ukrainian soldiers while the Russian soldiers were under a flag of surrender, several incidents where Russian soldiers have reached for grenades while being captured, and one soldier even threw a grenade while declaring that he surrenders (mixed messages, much?) So the perfidy runs from the Great Dictator all the way down to Private Conscriptovich.
I'm not saying that two wrongs make a right, I'm just saying that I get it. Any agreement with Russia was living on borrowed time already. But at the end of the day, if Ukrainian troops come home and the only harm done is Mad Vlad's feelings, then that's something I can live with.
The southern front is steadily opening up. They're working their way through lots of trenches and fortifications and hopefully, that work will be much, much quicker and safer soon when Ukraine gets access to US cluster munitions.
Russian rebels plan another border incursion (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3733325-freedom-of-russia-legion-plans-new-raids-into-russia-mass-media.html)
One thing that absolutely blows my mind about this is that this isn't some huge throng of soldiers, this is like 200 absolute madmen invading a nuclear power, taking border towns for days if not a week or two, causing civilian evacuations and pure chaos on the enemy side. And sometimes, if you're really really good at it, you can cause the enemy to conduct an EMERGENCY EVACUATION of NUCLEAR ammunition stockpiles. Holy smokes, that's a good raid!
And the guy leading it all was a fitness instructor. Literally just some guy, like John Connor in Terminator 2. And he's terrifying whole regions and keeping Putin up at night. And the enemy is faced with the lose-lose proposition of shoring up its own borders or having chaos reign at their border, both of which frustrate their war efforts.
And this also kills Kremlin propaganda, because how can you possibly tell people that you're getting raided for a third time by a group you said you already wiped out twice? It's inherently absurd!
I hope it doesn't turn out to be a clusterfuck...
Quote from: drunkenshoe on July 08, 2023, 04:24:09 AM120 countries have banned the cluster bombs because they don't want to waste all that resources and manpower, and then look like complete idiots when they miss one and mother of a couple of toddlers die.
Quote from: drunkenshoe on July 08, 2023, 04:24:09 AM120 countries have banned the cluster bombs because they don't want to waste all that resources and manpower, and then look like complete idiots when they miss one and mother of a couple of toddlers die.
It's war and it's nasty... and Vlad needs to learn how to read a map.
"Russia... not Russia." comes to mind.
Russia propaganda shows are endlessly entertaining. It's like if Borat told people that Kazakhstan is the most advanced country on Earth and all other countries were backwaters.
My favorite one is the assertion (without evidence, of course) that Canadian police are obliged to provide anyone who asks with heroin and thus the whole society is strung out and that's why Canada is on unfriendly terms with Russia. They even had the gall to attack my favorite filming location of British Columbia!
If I were to approach 100 random people in St Petersburg and offer them the opportunity to permanently move to British Columbia or stay in St Petersburg, how many people do you think would take me up on it? 60? 70? 80?
Afterwards, they somehow managed to top that BS casserole with a real whopper - the US is afraid of Russia because only Russia can seriously threaten the US.
Wrong! The answer is China. In the 50s and 60s, the USSR was a threat, but those days - and the USSR - are long gone. Russia is really only a threat to the eastern half of a country bordering NATO.
Let me put it this way, if US adversaries were Spider-Man villians, China would be Doc Ock, Iran would be Scorpion, and Russia would be The Vulture. And not the cool one from the movies, but the lame one from the 60s comic books. It could be worse. North Korea is Stilt-Man.
Which one is Paste Pot Pete?
Bayraktar factory under construction in Ukraine (https://news.yahoo.com/minister-factory-produce-bayraktar-drones-094935346.html)
When this was first proposed, Russian propagandists were very worried and made a lot of empty threats. I anticipate them moving to the "it's no big deal" phase soon. It's still a big deal to Russian conscripts, though.
I just saw a pretty funny video of a bunch of Russian soldiers filming themselves riding around in an armored vehicle with excitement and eagerness to fight.
Smashcut to them being captured. LOL
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 10, 2023, 10:33:33 AMI just saw a pretty funny video of a bunch of Russian soldiers filming themselves riding around in an armored vehicle with excitement and eagerness to fight.
Smashcut to them being captured. LOL
It's a surprisingly unprofessional military. A mix of mercenaries, draftees, and poor/ethnic volunteers who after a year still seem oblivious to their own peril.
Sweden is reportedly joining NATO now that Turkey is giving the go-ahead.
Turkey got some concessions out of it, as predicted from the start. I'm not sure if this sets a good precedent, since the whole system is one of mutual aid and altruism and holding out for concessions seems like it runs counter to that (it's a bit me-focused, as opposed to us-focused) and encourages foot-dragging in the future. But I guess that's how the sausage gets made and if that's what it takes, it's worth it imho.
On a positive note, the Baltic Sea will be Lake NATO!
(https://preview.redd.it/ptnf9fkycj891.jpg?width=721&auto=webp&s=93edfaa5affb7cdcefee868831251082e09e3a98)
Russia's strategic situation has deteriorated greatly. NATO has greater capabilities (now able to construct pretty much anything with a few planks of wood and an allen wrench) and a long border with Russia. It'll be an even longer border when Ukraine joins NATO.
Both the Baltic and Black Seas are more and more unwelcoming. Russia can technically still use both, but both will have a considerable NATO presence, especially after Crimea is returned to Ukraine.
Russia's entire western half will be hemmed in by NATO, except for the Caucasus region. Any further westward expansion is pretty much impossible, so Putin's mad dream of a Russkiy mir (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_world) (Russian order) in eastern europe is completely dead.
When he says that a kadyrovite (pro-Putin Chechen) unit was attacked and he's unable to show the results, he ain't kidding. That is some *rough* viewing. Let's just say that they're no longer able to make Tik-Toks.
Also, hearing that Ukrainian grain ships may be protected by Turkish ships if the deal with Russia falls through is fantastic news.
A collaborator, a "governor" of Zaporizhzhia region showed off some very crudely-made grenades and said he'd throw one down the hall if the Ukrainians come to take his office. I'm pretty sure a HIMARS strike wouldn't be dissuaded by a grenade...
These people really are clowns of the highest order. This guy is like 5'5" and 300 pounds. He looks like he gets out of breath walking to his office. He's not doing anything.
Ukraine reportedly already using the cluster munitions supplied by the US.
Russian general killed by Storm Shadow strike (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-general-oleg-tsokov-liquidated-by-ukrainian-missile-strike) on a hotel converted to barracks near Berdansk.
Take this with a grain of salt as it just appeared on my Telegram feed without a source
...but Erdogan denies that he violated any agreement by allowing the Azov commanders to leave Turkey and return to Ukraine.
According to him, the agreement to have them sit out the war in Turkey was purely between Ukraine and Russia and the government of Turkey didn't agree to anything.
If true, this is downright hilarious rules-lawyering. Quite literally off on a technically!
Another Russian general removed from combat (https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/12/europe/russian-general-treachery-accusations-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html)
This one by memo, not bomb. Doesn't make much difference to the Ukrainians.
Quotehe was suddenly dismissed from his post after accusing Moscow's Defense Ministry leadership of betraying his troops by not providing sufficient support.
We saw a lot of this from Wagner, too. Apparently, it's a common tactic of blame-passing. High command blames the grunts for defeats and the grunts blame high command for those same defeats. Everyone is blameless because everyone got stabbed in the back.
QuotePopov said he had raised questions about "the lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery," in a voice note published on Telegram late Wednesday.
Oh, I can answer those questions.
1) the Ukrainians have superior artillery and counter-battery systems and have been blasting Russian counter-battery radars left and right. That's how they keep winning the artillery duels and inflicting losses on Russian troops.
2) Russian reconnaissance stations were hit by fpv drones. I saw a compilation video of it. They just flew those tiny drones into them and BAM! no more Eye of Sauron.
QuoteDefense Minister Sergei Shoigu "signed the order and got rid of me," the general also said in the recording, as he accused the top Kremlin official of treason.
That seems familiar...
Popov notified Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, that his troops needed to be rotated out after fighting in combat for a long time and suffering significant casualties. The Ukrainians consistently go through roughly 200-400 Russian troops per day along the southern front.
QuoteThe ISW said the reports of Popov's protests, "if true, may support ISW's previous assessments that Russian forces lack operational reserves that would allow them to carry out rotations of personnel defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives and that Russian defensive lines may be brittle."
Music to my ears!
Russia just bombed Snake Island (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/13/7411157/), an uninhabited island.
Afaik, it was because Zelenskyy visited a memorial there a few days ago. So I guess they just really wanted to bomb a memorial.
Childish, ego-driven moves and not logical or pragmatic moves. That's how I know Putin gave the order. It's also how I know that he will lose.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces bombed Tokmak and killed around 200 Russian troops along with the Kremlin-installed commandant (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/13/7411202/)
I'll let you decide which strike is more effective at swinging the war.
Ukraine updates:
Wagner leader Prigozhin is in Belarus at that camp they built for them. Tents with crappy beds, almost has a dorm room feel to it. There is an extremely unflattering and - I kid you not - borderline NSFW picture of him sitting on one of those beds. Let's just say that his favorite Reno 911 cop is Lt Dangle and leave it at that.
Wagner will supposedly be training the Belarusian military there (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/14/7411343/).
Putin spun some story about meeting with Wagner, but what's real and what's not whenever "Putin says" is like deciphering a fart. It's very tedious and unpleasant and after a while, you wonder if there's any point at all.
Russia has redeployed almost all its troops along the Belarusian border, leaving it wide open (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/14/7411314/). If Lukashenko has any crazy ideas, now is a fantastic time...
Ukraine continues to advance, albeit a little bit at a time. These things take time. Especially when Ukraine is trying to be cautious and minimize casualties. Still, there's some fantastic footage of some artillery blown up, as well as a Russian tank complete with cope cage engulfed in fire and milling about quite literally mindlessly. Ukraine hit 9 ammo depots along the southern front and a major development is expected at a somewhat unlikely place there but plans love silence, so I shouldn't go into details there.
New military aid to Ukraine continues to pour in. If Moscow thinks it can ding up a Bradley and the Ukrainian offensive will fail, they're sorely mistaken, because Ukraine gets back what they've lost and more. Whatever Russia loses, it loses for good.
Reportedly, Russian commander Selivyorstov was fired by Shoigu as well.
He was commander of the 106th Airborne Division, one of four total airborne divisions, and stationed near Bakhmut (Russia relies heavily on remaining airborne units to defend Bakhmut)
Looks like the Russian military is purging commanders who, for one reason or another, have fallen out of favor of the Kremlin. This internal turmoil may help Ukraine by reducing the effectiveness of Russian commanders, assuming that the more experienced ones are more effective.
Ukraine says it destroyed Russian S-400 missile system used in deadly strike on Kramatorsk (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-military-says/)
The Russians jury-rig much of their AA to be makeshift artillery. This one was used in a terror attack on civilians, bombing a pizzeria and killing many of its staff.
A turncoat was reportedly assisting the Russians (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-06-28/8-dead-russian-attack-restaurant-eastern-ukraine-kramatorsk)
That missile launcher has allegedly been destroyed.
When I say that the Ukrainians have gotten really good with drone-dropped munitions, I'm not joking:
https://i.imgur.com/VFMeXpQ.mp4
Right in the 10-ring. Also, ridiculously cheap de-mining.
(They also hit the mines in-transit, but those videos are waaay more NSFW. You know that scene in Tremors 2...)
Russian telegram channels are increasingly worried about the weak areas of their defense and a possible Ukrainian breakthrough.
For the people who don't already know, the Ukrainians changed tactics early in their counteroffensive. Early on, they used massed armored assaults, but those are too vulnerable to Russian artillery and attack helicopters. So the Ukrainians changed their tactics, using smaller and more cautious attacks backed up by liberal use of high-precision artillery and drones. Sometimes, they even manage to draw out Russian forces and ambush them or cut off Russian units from each other and destroy in detail. And the whole time, they are pounding away at Russian command posts, ammo dumps, and logistics. Because of this, Ukraine maintains a roughly 4:1 Kill/loss ratio despite being the attacker, which is impressive with very limited air power against an entrenched enemy.
Simply put, the Russians are facing manpower shortages, hence them pulling away border guards from near China and Belarus as well as a stealth mobilization within Russia (in addition to convicts, Russian businesses are "encouraged" to send some of their workers)
But intern-conscripts won't change the outcome of this war. Russia is simply losing more than they can recruit (and what they recruit is increasingly poor-quality) so the Ukrainian offensive is kept at bay mostly by copius amounts of mines, extensive trenches, remaining Russian artillery, and Russian airpower.
But it doesn't matter how good your fortifications are if the troops manning them die off, and that's steadily what Ukraine has been doing. This manpower shortage could become a manpower disaster if it continues much longer.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 16, 2023, 09:37:49 AMRussian telegram channels are increasingly worried about the weak areas of their defense and a possible Ukrainian breakthrough.
For the people who don't already know, the Ukrainians changed tactics early in their counteroffensive. Early on, they used massed armored assaults, but those are too vulnerable to Russian artillery and attack helicopters. So the Ukrainians changed their tactics, using smaller and more cautious attacks backed up by liberal use of high-precision artillery and drones. Sometimes, they even manage to draw out Russian forces and ambush them or cut off Russian units from each other and destroy in detail. And the whole time, they are pounding away at Russian command posts, ammo dumps, and logistics. Because of this, Ukraine maintains a roughly 4:1 Kill/loss ratio despite being the attacker, which is impressive with very limited air power against an entrenched enemy.
Simply put, the Russians are facing manpower shortages, hence them pulling away border guards from near China and Belarus as well as a stealth mobilization within Russia (in addition to convicts, Russian businesses are "encouraged" to send some of their workers)
But intern-conscripts won't change the outcome of this war. Russia is simply losing more than they can recruit (and what they recruit is increasingly poor-quality) so the Ukrainian offensive is kept at bay mostly by copius amounts of mines, extensive trenches, remaining Russian artillery, and Russian airpower.
But it doesn't matter how good your fortifications are if the troops manning them die off, and that's steadily what Ukraine has been doing. This manpower shortage could become a manpower disaster if it continues much longer.
Beating the Russians at their own attrition game. Old, sick Putin running out of time.
Quote from: Cassia on July 16, 2023, 10:07:18 AMBeating the Russians at their own attrition game. Old, sick Putin running out of time.
Yep. Ironically enough, a lesson learned during WWII.
Update on The Purge: Moscow
Gen. Sergei Surovikin (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/world/europe/sergei-surovikin-russian-general-missing.html), who suspiciously went absent after the Wagner almost-coup, is "taking a rest" according to the Kremlin.
Major General Ivan Popov (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-popov-commander-disaffection-1813141) was fired from his post and reportedly reassigned to Syria.
Major General Vladimir Seliverstov (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-38/), an Airborne/VDV Commander, has been stripped of his command. We don't know why, but Russian sources speculated that it was "associated with Seliverstov's reputation for speaking up on behalf of his soldiers."
Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian side:
Denys Prokopenko (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3736591-azov-brigade-commander-meets-with-personnel-announces-his-return-to-service.html) (Nom de guerre: Redis) the leader of Azov (a name vatniks fear) has been returned to Ukraine from Turkey and is now ready to return to service.
According to his wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denys_Prokopenko), "Under the agreement, Prokopenko and four other top Ukrainian commanders from the Azovstal siege will be required to stay in Turkey until the end of the war." LOL. Ain't nobody got time for that!
Biden has officially approved of training Ukrainian pilots of F-16s (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-us-to-formally-allow-european-countries-to-train-ukrainians-on-f-16s/)
While I'm glad this has finally been approved, this was something that should've been done long ago. Training takes considerable time, so it's incredibly important to get the ball rolling well before you need it. Ukraine needs F-16s now more than ever and they're not going to get them for months. Don't get me wrong, this is good news, but it's a bit like - how do you say - starting to cook the meal after your guests have already arrived, grown hungry, then grown famished.
Kerch bridge goes boom again (https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/16/europe/russia-crimea-bridge-intl-hnk/index.html)
(https://preview.redd.it/bi1dzg6pnfcb1.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=bade602402f6dbf3d4e0f0f4521b6284f060d673)
QuoteTwo strikes were allegedly carried out on the bridge around 3 a.m. local time, damaging part of the bridge
QuoteCrimean news outlets appeared to show part of the bridge collapsed and a vehicle damaged in the latest incident.
QuoteGladkov said a girl was injured and her parents were killed while traveling in the car that was damaged in the incident.
I'm not happy that civilians were hurt of course, but Ukraine had been warning civilians to GTFO Crimea for months and months. And certainly, anyone still lingering after the first explosion is a grade A moron.
Also, this bridge carries military equipment facilitating an invasion and subsequent occupation with resulting horrific war crimes. It's fair game. Cruising down that bridge is about as safe as booking the battleship Yamato for a family cruise.
Finally, Russian civilians in Crimea have been squatting/stealing property from their actual owners, so not being in the military does not necessarily mean innocent.
Hopefully, this incident causes people nearby to more urgently pursue safety and be far from the bridge when it is finally brought down.
Russian counter-battery capacity worsens (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-faces-shortages-in/)
QuoteAccording to the report, the survivability of Russian ground troops relies on detecting Ukrainian artillery and striking against it. However, the British intelligence analysis said that Russia is dealing with a worsening shortage of ZOOPARK-1M counter-battery radars.
Few of the ZOOPARK radars deployed in Ukraine are likely to remain operational, the U.K. Defense Ministry estimated, pointing out the recent destruction of one such radar in early July.
Ukrainian forces have been especially successful at destroying counter-battery radars and ammo dumps lately. The end result is that when both sides artillery duel, the Russian ones typically get hit first. The latest in the daily count is 23 Russian artillery and 4 MLRS destroyed. Russia may have started this war with a lot of artillery but they won't end it with a lot of artillery.
Russia just pulled out of the Black Sea grain agreement, citing the attack on the Crimean bridge. So those civilian ships will likely be guarded by Turkish ships, as Turkey pledged to do.
Today, China of all countries stressed to Russia that the grain deal should remain intact. Trouble in paradise? Or is China getting tired of Russian instability and drama?
(https://i.imgur.com/sYO6FIC.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/bXjKfwT.jpeg)
Damage to the Kerch bridge is substantial - almost completely severing one lane of civilian traffic, possibly compromising the other lane. The rail line is unharmed.
Less destruction than last time, but still pretty decent.
Wouldn't stop "The Blues Brothers".
Anti-Putin Chechens ambushed a Russian Kamaz supply truck and riddled it full of holes.
Liberal use of small arms fire. I pity the quartermaster. It was basically a mafia hit, with optimal results. All enemy equipment/supplies lost, all enemies neutralized, probably near-instantly.
The location? Belgorod region of Russia, near a border village. The enemy never even made it to Ukraine to distribute any of its supplies, so the maximum amount of supplies were lost.
Russian Su-25 fighter plane crashes in front of stunned Russian beachgoers (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-sukhoi-crash-1813408)
The pilot ejected, but later died of his injuries. Russian media says that the crash was due to engine failure.
(https://i.imgur.com/uNBidiQ.jpeg)
700+ manpower losses, a whopping 38 artillery lost. Quite a nice haul!
Prolonged explosions at Crimean ammo depot cause thousands of Russians to flee (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fire-military-base-crimea-major-highway-closed-russia-backed-governor-2023-07-19/)
They were warned.
The explosions reportedly went off for more than 3 hours. That's a LOT of ammo going pop, right when the southern front is in desperate need of it. Such a pity.
Snap, Crackle and Pop! 😆
We don't know everything, but we do know some things for a fact:
1) when the dam was destroyed, Russia refused to evacuate civilians - Ukrainian civilians - from the area. Also, Russia had very recently made it illegal to investigate that exact sort of thing. Russian state media suggested blowing up further dams, like the one north of Kyiv.
2) We aren't sure exactly how many casualties were on each side at Bakhmut, but we do know that significant Russian offensive actions halted there and the Ukrainians are now on the offensive. Putin's claim of a 10:1 casualty rate is not at all borne out by independently-verified losses. The much higher amount of Russian vehicles captured by the Ukrainians than vice versa would seem to also support the idea that Ukraine is more successful in these clashes. (though generally, the attacker is more likely to lose vehicles to enemy capture)
3) while the Russian military is not nearly as laughably inept as they're made out to be, there are documented blunders (like the convoy to Kyiv) and friendly-fire incidents. Russian soldiers repeatedly complain about the same things - high casualty rates, incompetent generals, shell shortages, poor artillery accuracy on their part while noting the enemy's high artillery accuracy. The Ukrainians have sometimes complained about shell shortages as well, so things aren't easy on their end, either. But we can safely say that the Russians have it worse.
Russian forces in Bakhmut semi-encircled (https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-all-conditions-created-to-retake-bakhmut/)
Quote"At the moment, the deployment of Russian troops resembles an arch, concentrated in Bakhmut. And they are under semi-encirclement. Well, it's impossible not to take advantage of that," the commander of Ukrainian forces in the east said in the interview.
QuoteUkraine will be able to capture Bakhmut with ten times smaller losses, Syrskyi said.
For Russia, that was at least 20k kia. So, that'd be 2k for Ukraine. That's not exactly fantastic to western sensibilities, but I suppose it has to be done.
If Russia had taken Bakhmut with only 2k kia, they'd still be advancing towards Kyiv, so I guess Ukraine will have to pay the price, even if it is at considerable discount.
QuoteRussia is also redeploying units from Zaporizhzhia Oblast, currently facing a major thrust of Ukrainian counteroffensive, to the east
To my ears, this is so spectacularly unwise that the order must've come directly from Putin himself.
Bakhmut is not a very important strategic objective. Crimea is a very important strategic objective. Also, any Ukrainian breakthrough to the south will sever supply lines, cut Russian forces in half, forcing Russia to cede about half of occupied territory. If I had to decide between the south and the east, I'd choose the south, hands down.
He's either extremely confident in his forces to hold the south (doubtful, considering the sacking of commanders) or realized that he can't hold the south as is and so is ramping up pressure on the east to force Ukraine to divert their attention.
QuoteSyrskyi's troops advance 500 m to 1 km every day, recapturing land and preventing Russian forces from taking the initiative
This may be "slow" to observers, but it's very good considering the circumstances - heavily fortified territory backed by artillery and attack helicopters.
Compare that to Russia's earlier advance of ~100m/day in Bakhmut that had people quaking in their chairs. "Oh no, Russia advanced and took the shed yesterday and part of a road today, they're unstoppable"
Ukraine reverses months of Russian advances in just a few weeks and they get bored and fall asleep. I suppose bad news is more attention-grabbing than good news, but this also highlights the shifting goalposts, where taking a town is a big win for Russia while taking back half their territory is a big win for Ukraine.
Ukraine bags another colonel (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-colonel-denis-ivanov-killed-ukraine-1814001)
This happened near the eastern front. This guy was reportedly involved in the battle for Severodonetsk, among others. He often received praise from Kremlin propaganda networks, so he will be missed, albeit after a fashion.
This has yet to be officially confirmed by the Kremlin, but it was reported by a Kremlin-controlled news outlet in occupied territory. It would fit the pattern of Russian officers reported dead followed by uncertainty/denial for a week or two, then a funeral on Russian soil. It doesn't get more confirmed than that.
Ukraine has begun using the cluster munitions provided by the US (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/20/cluster-munitions-ukraine-war-russia/)
Ukraine also used cluster munitions shortly after the US decision, though those were likely from their own very limited stocks.
In addition to clearing trenches along the southern front, Ukraine will likely also use cluster munitions near Bakhmut.
(https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/8702415c-1513-4513-a7d2-c6d8c1bb8458.png?format=webp)
Whoopsie!
Putin mobilizes 70-year-olds (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-raises-mobilization-age-some-reservists-can-be-called-70-2023-7)
I suppose the good news is that they can still use the same equipment. That should cut down on training time.
"Fun" fact: this is roughly equivalent to the US sending Vietnam vets into a warzone today.
The Russians claimed to have destroyed a M-55S tank (a heavily upgraded T-55) near Kreminna about a week ago (their first). Bizarrely, even some Western media ran with this story (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/14/the-ukrainian-army-has-lost-its-first-super-upgraded-m-55s-tank/?sh=5820f54556b2), despite knowing better.
Joke's on them, because that tank survived (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/17/one-of-ukraines-super-upgraded-m-55s-tanks-took-a-russian-shell-to-the-turret-and-survived/?sh=36737a5d2aa3), and those taken in had to issue a correction, albeit seemingly with no lesson learned.
It's a good idea to bear this in mind when Western media runs a story based on Russian sources.
Girkin in a pickle (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66265892) 🥒
Pro-war nationalist and asshole who was convicted in absentia of shooting down a Dutch passenger plane.
Putin had him jailed because he was mildly criticial of Russian military leadership despite being as pro-genocide as they come.
The purge continues.
Poland summons Muscovia ambassador after Putin tries historical revisionism, slander, and threatens Poland (https://kyivindependent.com/poland-summons-russian-ambassador-after-putins-remarks/)
There's a reason why Poland is buying up lots of military technology, and it ain't conquest. It's because it has an asshole neighbor with a history of aggression towards Poles.
Quote from: Hydra009 on July 22, 2023, 08:24:56 AMPoland summons Muscovia ambassador after Putin tries historical revisionism, slander, and threatens Poland (https://kyivindependent.com/poland-summons-russian-ambassador-after-putins-remarks/)
There's a reason why Poland is buying up lots of military technology, and it ain't conquest. It's because it has an asshole neighbor with a history of aggression towards Poles.
Yeah, there was that little deal Stalin made with Hitler; Nazis and communists to divvy up Poland. I'm sure they remember that well.
Russian propagandist killed by cluster munitions near frontline (https://news.yahoo.com/one-russian-propagandist-killed-several-121311890.html)
(https://i.imgur.com/RZwx1yg.jpg)
They've noticeably switched gears to knocking out AA. 8 today, 7 yesterday. They're planning something.
Updates:
Shortly after a devastating attack on an ammo depot in Crimea, Russia launched missiles at Odessa (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/07/23/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70452764007/). Some missles were intercepted, but unfortunately, some got through and hit residential buildings and an 18th century cathedral, badly damaging an important Unesco-listed historical site (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/23/this-is-barbarism-shock-at-russian-strike-on-odesa-cathedral). The Russians somehow decided to blame the Ukrainian government and "incompetent" Ukrainian anti-air instead of the Russians who launched the missiles and the Russians who gave the order, as a sane person would. Really getting abusive spouse and/or psycho ex vibes. This isn't a new development, this is how the Russian government operates - it absolutely will do whatever it wants, no matter how cruel and barbaric, and simultaneously blame the victim and play the victim. This is an abuser's manipulation technique cynically deployed on the world stage.
In response, Ukraine hit another ammo depot in Crimea (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-crimea-drone-grain-3aeae8508ec55b87c0a1c85e257fe5d4), forcing another shutdown of the illegally-constructed Kerch bridge, which ferries military supplies to Russian forces in support of Putin's war of aggression. There was also some activity near Moscow, but a lot about that is unknown because the word of Kremlin authorities is inherently untrustworthy and must be independently confirmed.
I've gotta say, I haven't heard too much news about the river crossing in Kherson region the past few days, but this stuff takes a while to filter down to the Western media. This latest news has it that some Russian officers died in attacks near the river and Russian forces retreated back a little, allowing the Ukrainians to establish a bridgehead.
If the Ukrainians can establish a pontoon bridge and start moving armor across the river...well, that area is not very strongly defended. A rapid advance towards the east would sever the supply line from Crimea, even without taking all of Zaporizhia region. Remaining Russian soldiers would have the supremely difficult task of defending the northern approach and the western approach all while a big supply line has been cut. They'd likely have to reposition, ceding ground in the process.
Gaddafi Syndrome: During Wagner march on Moscow, Dictator Putin was "paralyzed and unable to act decisively" (https://kyivindependent.com/wp-putin-paralyzed-and-unable-to-act-decisively-during-prigozhin-rebell/)
Shoigu in North Korea, wheelin' and dealin' (https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-delegation-join-chinese-north-korea-visit-2023-07-25/)
Updates:
(https://i.imgur.com/8pYQVvf.jpg)
Man, they are really going after artillery! 30 artillery + 1 MLRS
Ukrainian forces continue to make progress south of Bakhmut (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyivs-noose-around-bakhmut-tightens). The Ukrainians now have a presence in the southern half of Klishchiivka and the Russians have abandoned Andriivka (https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukraine-on/) (which could be attacked by Ukrainian forces from the north and west, and is therefore an untenable position). Both settlements are likely to be liberated soon, if not currently. Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian attacks (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/25/7412871/) in that area, as well as other areas along the entire frontline.
Ukraine hit an invader repair depot packed with vehicles in Crimea (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/25/the-russians-packed-hundreds-of-vehicles-into-a-crimean-repair-depot-the-ukrainians-just-hit-it-with-a-cruise-missile/?sh=3455941261ff). Allstate has seen a thing or two, but they haven't seen that!
Russia has withdrawn its several oh-so-powerful T-14 Armata tanks from the frontlines (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-tank-armata-t-14-1814899). Exactly what motivated this decision is unclear, but I think we can safely deduce that they haven't been working out very well.
The US announced another batch of military aid, this one worth $400 million (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/25/7412879/). A lot of it is more ammo for systems already on the ground (related to HIMARS, NASAMS, Stingers, Javelins, howitzer rounds, etc) as well as Black Hornet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Hornet_Nano) drones (tiny surveillance drones) and Hydra-70 rockets (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydra_70) (the wiki isn't super clear, but I believe those to be air-to-ground rockets intended to be mounted on helicopters, though I'm sure Ukraine will find some creative use for them)
Now, the not-so-good news:
Russia is building a Shahed drone factory within its territory (https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/politics/us-russia-iran-drones/index.html). In time, this will likely pose a significant threat to Ukraine.
Russia continues to make preparations for mass-conscription in the near future. The latest is Russia raising the draft age by three years to age 30 (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-russia-compulsory-military-service-conscription-draft-age/). Nestle and Unilever workers in Russia risk being sent off to war (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/thousands-of-nestl%C3%A9-staff-at-risk-of-conscription-in-russia/ar-AA1efePt). Businesses in Russia have faced increased pressure to send workers to war (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/11/moscow-pressures-construction-companies-to-meet-covert-mobilization-quotas-uk-intel/), demanded to meet unofficial quotas of "volunteers" or lose government contracts.
Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant (ZNPP), one of its six reactors has been switched from a "cold stop" state to a "hot shutdown" state (https://www.newsweek.com/hot-shutdown-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-ukraine-radiation-fears-1815091), which violates safety protocols. For anyone wondering, it was reactor #4. The symbolism here is readily apparent to anyone who has seen any documentary on the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. In addition, anti-personnel mines have been found on the premises (https://www.ft.com/content/23ff34e9-18e0-4f3a-98a2-efeaf7bee9d4) - not close enough to damage the actual nuclear plant, but obviously a gross violation of safety protocols.
(Sorry for the link spam, but important for educational reasons and necessary to cite sources for transparency)
The Russians took an APC loaded to the gills with infantry, drove it down a dirt road next to a couple of ruined buildings and other cover, and inexplicably disembarked the infantry between the APC and the Ukrainians (instead of disembarking so that the vehicle is between them and the Ukrainians)
The Ukrainians popped out of that cover and just gunned them all down before they could do anything. Might as well have dropped them into a woodchipper.
I'm not a tactician or anything, but I'm pretty sure that's not how you're supposed to disembark soldiers.
Partisans continue their bloody work in Melitopol (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3741147-mayor-guerrillas-eliminate-at-least-four-invaders-in-melitopol-over-past-week.html)
They bagged 4 Russian troops over the past week, saving Ukrainian forces the hassle.
It is also interesting that Russian forces are so desperate for blood donations that they're willing to lie to locals and say it's for pregnant woman and cancer patients and also that they're repositioning some equipment from Melitopol to Crimea, almost as if they expect to lose that territory in the future, though that could be routine and I might be reading too much into it.
The commander of Russia's "Ghost" battalion, Artur Bogachenko, recently got promoted to full ghost near Klishchiivka.
Russian airforce unusually quiet (https://kyivindependent.com/lull-observed-with-russias-military-aviation/)
QuoteUsually, Ukraine tracks 20-30 Russian airborne targets at once, but was only tracking two or three of them, he said. UAV activity on the front line was also greatly reduced.
Perhaps the damage inflicted behind the front lines is bearing fruit.
Quote from: ferdmonger on July 28, 2023, 08:02:55 PMPerhaps the damage inflicted behind the front lines is bearing fruit.
Or they're gearing up for a big strike. Who knows.
Russian missile strike hits high-rise apartment and FSB office (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/missile-hits-residential-building-ukrainian-city-dnipro-ukrainian-mp-2023-07-28/)
Zero deaths, nine injured in the attacks but their doctors say they are in "satisfactory condition".
Both buildings had few people nearby; the apartment building was still being constructed and the FSB office had been abandoned since the beginning of the war.
The silver lining is that evidently, Russia is operating off poor intelligence, because they typically prefer as many casualties as possible and try to ensure that with turncoats who act as spotters. They likely did not have eyes on the ground for either of these targets and likely found them through either aerial reconnaissance or spy satellite (Russia has some capacity in that regard, though much less than Ukraine)
In probing/recon action, a lone Ukrainian tank makes it all the way to Russian first line of defense (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-28-23/h_b888ceaa852914d154f897c46fed74ca)
Putin tries and fails to woo over African leaders with delivery of "free" stolen Ukrainian grain (https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/27/europe/putin-russia-african-summit-intl/index.html)
They of course rejected the offer. Because think about it - Somalia received 84,000 tonnes of wheat from Ukraine in 2022 (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/end-black-sea-grains-deal-promises-pain-africas-neediest-2023-07-17/), even as Ukraine was bombed and invaded. No strings attached. Dictator Putin wants to send <50,000 tonnes with strings attached and international ire also attached. And should the war change in Ukraine's favor, can Russia guarantee either the grain or reliable shipping? Of course not. Not to mention the inherent risk in entering into a deal with someone who habitually breaks deals.
Obviously, the best deal is the restoration of the Black Sea grain deal, which provides much more food and avoids a deal-with-the-devil scenario. And sure enough, that's exactly what these African leaders argued for. Hell, now that Russia is threatening African food security, they have a vested interest that Russia should lose the war and fast to resume regular grain shipping ASAP. Putin is surely uniting the world!
I would also like to note that Russia had a disappointing turnout for this meeting in St Petersburg, with just 17 African heads of state compared to the 43 who showed up in 2019. That's less than half. Of those few who showed up, I suspect the main draw was Prigozhin, bizarrely still in Russia like he owns the place. Does he own the place? He certainly didn't have the appearance of a whipped dog in photos with African leaders, rather more like a powerful figure - not powerful enough to take over (yet), but too powerful to be forced to leave.
A Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS was hit by US cluster munitions and the wreckage was captured and inspected by Ukrainian forces.
Cluster munitions went right through the cope cage, absolutely shredded the cabin, deflated tires, holes on the sides of the vehicle, but the rockets in the back miraculously survived intact since the front took the worst damage. Nice salvage at the very least, they might even be able to repair it if they can replace the engine.
The fate of one vehicle is not a hugely consequential part of the war, but it shows that donated weapons are working as intended (the Ukrainians are good shots, to boot!) and helping the Ukrainians to more frequently disable but not destroy Russian vehicles. Every little bit helps.
100+ Wagner troops (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/29/7413362/) have been deployed to the Suwalki Gap (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwa%C5%82ki_Gap) (the border between Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania - not far from the Russian exclave of Kallingrad)
They're definitely up to something, and it appears that Ukraine is not the target...
I have a bridge in Crimea to sell ya: Russian-installed collaborator claimed that Ukraine attacked the bridge linking Crimea to Kherson region with Storm Shadow cruise missiles (https://kyivindependent.com/top-russian-proxy-claims-ukraine-attacked-railway-connecting-occupied-crimea-kherson-oblast/)
Naturally, he claims that Russian air defence shot down all 12 (!) missiles. Evidently, he's adapting well to Russian culture. Meanwhile, Russian milbloggers don't report any AA activity and the Russian ministry of defense reports that they shot down 7 Storm Shadow missiles. 🤡
From a couple of weeks ago, but still good:
Btw, Russian electronic warfare systems can jam HIMARS GPS guidance somewhat successfully now. Unfortunately for them, Ukraine bagged a bunch of electronic warfare systems with artillery/aviation/drones. Rock-paper-scissors is a lot easier when you can reliably hit the paper with ordnance.
It looks like these guys have no idea what they are doing. Unload right into heavy fire?
Yeah, pretty gruesome. I would've assumed they didn't know about the Ukrainians behind cover but the armored transport was shooting at them before everyone disembarked.
On the full video, the transport caught on fire and was completely destroyed. So that engagement was likely a total loss for Russia.
Russian special military operation bears fruit (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/30/7413493/)
Russian media claims a major win for Russia in bagging their first IRIS-T.
Just one small problem... it's totally a fake.
For starters, no secondary explosions or fire.
Also, the explosion just shreds it as if it was made of something comparatively light, like wood, and the whole thing sways from the blast.
This was bait, and the Russians not only bit it, but bragged about it later LOL
Nice island base ya got there, it'd be a shame if something happened to it...
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20120
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian narratives have shifted (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-29-2023)
For some time, the Kremlin has allowed Russian milbloggers and Russian state media to report with some level of reality - acknowledging losses and successful Ukrainian actions as well as giving not-entirely-wrong assessments and predictions. This slow-drip of reality may have been intended to acclimate the Russian public to the reality of the situation and also to undercut wartime criticism of the Kremlin from military leaders like Prigozhin.
This has changed, likely due to the almost-coup from Wagner (Prigozhin brazenly contradicted Putin's war justifications and war goals in public just prior to launching his march towards Moscow)
Now, the Russian information space more closely resembles North Korea. Bad news is forbidden and Russia is invincible. For example, Russia circulated claims that it retook a settlement it didn't retake. It also claims it shot down all the Storm Shadow missiles headed towards Chonhar bridge and even shared a photo of it while conveniently cropping out the damaged section. The truth came out (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-crimea-chonhar-bridge-damage-photo-russia-logistics-bases-dzankoi-1816545) and a less flattering photo clearly shows that it was in fact damaged. The Russian milblogger community was suspiciously quiet on this news, likely due to the Kremlin publicly asking them to "refrain from covering certain topics".
So expect lots of claims that the Ukraine counteroffensive is making no headway, the Russians are winning every battle, etc. Expects lots of big whoppers with scant - if any - supporting information.
The Kremlin is now completely divorced from reality and their messaging will bear that out, from Lavrov to Russian milbloggers to certain sympathetic individuals in the US and other western countries.
"The Kremlin is now completely divorced from reality and their messaging will bear that out, from Lavrov to Russian milbloggers to certain sympathetic individuals in the US and other western countries."
Well, to be fair, they've always been divorced from reality.
Quote from: ferdmonger on August 02, 2023, 07:53:02 PMWell, to be fair, they've always been divorced from reality.
Well, we've seen stuff like them saying they shot down 500 bazillion Bayraktars and 90 Abrams tanks. But they've also acknowledged that the Kerch bridge was damaged and for the most part, both sides have been reporting clashes and explosions at the same places. So there's still a lot of overlap, even though Russia puts their own spin on things.
Now, expect a much more off-the-rails narrative where they crushed the whole Ukrainian offensive, took back Staromaiorske, leveled Odessa, and are poised to take back Kherson and Kharkiv any second now.
1996-2023... only thing that has changed is apparently Russians actually cared about their dead and wounded 30 years ago.
Good news about the Russian naval blockade essentially being ignored by several ships, especially from countries that Russia doesn't want to anger like Israel and Turkey.
Russia has its hands full in Ukraine and can't handle any additional conflict, and so it will not escalate with other countries. It will threaten, blackmail, spread misinformation, manipulate elections, buzz drones, etc - everything up to an act of war but it will absolutely not start a war outright.
Generally, you want to escalate things with weaker opponents, knowing that you will eventually draw a bigger gun and they will back down. This is why Russia is perfectly fine with escalating with Ukraine and Georgia but does not carry out its threats against NATO.
'Cause I just liked the rap. Seems the crew figured out they were targeted
Brewed special, just for you (https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-resistance-poisoned-17-russian-133711549.html)
QuoteUkrainian resistance forces poisoned 17 Russian military officers at a celebration in the southern Ukrainian port of Mariupol, according to an advisor to the mayor of the city.
Ukrainian partisans used cyanide and pesticides during a Sunday Russian Navy Day event to poison the Russian military service members, killing two, Petro Andriushchenko said on Telegram.
The other 15 were admitted to the hospital in serious condition, he said
(https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/8884bc57bf6ea4b272194a86ff400cf0-320-80.jpg)
Man, it's been a busy day yesterday!
Russian landing ship Olenegorskiy Gornyak was hit by a Ukrainian sea drone (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-olenegorskiy-gornyak-is-largest-russian-vessel-seriously-damaged-after-sinking-of-moskva-cruiser/), was severely danaged, and had to be towed back to port. It's the biggest Russian ship to be hit since the Moskva. Last year, it was poised to land troops near Odessa as part of a planned amphibious assault. Now, it cannot operate safely even close to Russian port. How the tables have turned!
Another Russian ship was also hit by Ukrainian sea drone - a Russian oil tanker very close to the Kerch bridge. Before anyone gets teary-eyed about a supposedly civilian ship, this ship was sanctioned by the US (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-drone-attack-tanker-navy-ship-crimea-black-sea-rcna98307) for routinely carrying aviation fuel from Crimea towards Syria as a major supplier of Russia's military actions in Syria. Imho, this is no different from blowing up a Kamaz truck (military supply truck).
Ukraine is currently under missile attack again and they post this:
(https://i.imgur.com/Ll4jEPN.jpeg)
👀
It was a new day yesterday, but it's an old day now... 😎
In Russia, a facility that produces Iskander missiles was damaged (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/in-russia-an-explosion-occurs-at-the-plant-where-iskander-missiles-are-produced/)
Ukraine strikes Chonhar bridge (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/6/7414429/) (connecting Crimea to Zaporizhzhia) as well as Hanichensk bridge (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/6/7414434/)
The Chonhar bridge strike is the most devastating as that's the main supply line between Crimea and the southern frontlines.
Ukraine hit the road dead center and shot a fairly large hole right through. It's unlikely that anything heavier than a unicycle will be able make it down that road for a good while.
(https://i.imgur.com/4OArKdO.jpg)
Russian state media TASS - the voice of Dictator Putin - reported the news as well, though with their own angle - literally. They took a picture of the hole from the side rather than straight on, making it appear to be much smaller than it actually is. They also reported that a school was hit by Ukraine, without evidence. I think we can safely assume that they're up to their normal BS.
To help explain the geographic importance of those bridges, I put together a few images taken from google maps:
(https://i.imgur.com/imF1wrr.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/kMCAvUB.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/799XR1z.png)
(the red X marks the approximate location of the strike - I literally just guessed - and shouldn't be assumed to be exact location)
The maps make it clear that any traffic heading north have to take a much lengthier route, which adds delays and also congests the western route, making for a tempting target...
(https://i.imgur.io/s5YdwQ6_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
Apparently, my guesstimated red Xs are right on the money.
Yesterday, Russia launched a major missile/drone attack on Ukraine (https://www.jpost.com/international/article-753826)
Ukraine's air force says they shot down 30 of the 40 cruise missiles and all 27 Shahed drones
Evidently, the target was the Starokostyantyniv airfield (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-launches-giant-missile-drone-attack-against-ukraine-following-retaliation-promise) in western Ukraine. Specifically, any Storm Shadow missiles and/or airplanes capable of launching said missiles. Despite the Kremlin's insistence that Western weapons will not change the course of the war, the Kremlin is deeply fearful of said weapons, precisely because they already have changed the course of the war.
If Russia planned on crippling that airfield, they're sorely mistaken since most missiles did not make it to target and Ukraine put out a statement saying that they're used to these sorts of attacks and their airforce is quite mobile (they likely got an alert as soon as Russia started its attack, giving them considerable time to move their planes. Additionally, they also have hardened shelters for some of their planes and other high-value equipment, so it's a bit like flinging a stone at a turtle a couple kilometers away, imho)
Still, some missiles did hit *something* - mostly residential buildings, from the looks of it (https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2023/08/5/7414378/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) (Accuracy is not Russia's strong suit)
The full extent of the damage is still unknown, but a Ukrainian official said that "three waves of missiles hit the Starokostiantyniv area, damaging several buildings and igniting a fire at a warehouse". It's unclear if any of these buildings were of strategic value.
Good news:
Ukraine pushes further in the south, breaching the Russian first line of defense in some places.
Ukraine pushed back Russian gains in the east, but the situation is still tense.
Uktaine shot down another Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter. Apparently, they still use civilian GPS. Not even the aviation kind, they use the cheap, hiking enthusiast kind. It's a wonder they ever do anything useful with that sort of equipment.
Abrams tanks are on their way from the US.
Bad news:
Russia attacks civilian buildings again. Deaths are being reported. :(
Ukrainian grain being unloaded at a Turkish port exploded (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-injures-10-near-grain-silos-turkish-port-2023-08-07/). Apparently, it's possible for wheat dust to explode in certain conditions. Authorities are investigating.
Lots of products that make dust can explode from a static discharge.
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 07, 2023, 09:28:48 PM
Good news:
Ukraine pushes further in the south, breaching the Russian first line of defense in some places.
Ukraine pushed back Russian gains in the east, but the situation is still tense.
Uktaine shot down another Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter. Apparently, they still use civilian GPS. Not even the aviation kind, they use the cheap, hiking enthusiast kind. It's a wonder they ever do anything useful with that sort of equipment.
Abrams tanks are on their way from the US.
Bad news:
Russia attacks civilian buildings again. Deaths are being reported. :(
Ukrainian grain being unloaded at a Turkish port exploded (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-injures-10-near-grain-silos-turkish-port-2023-08-07/). Apparently, it's possible for wheat dust to explode in certain conditions. Authorities are investigating.
The UK army is holding back using their leopard tanks. With so many effective anti-tank weapons, tanks are like zebra in out on the plains for both sides it seems.
Quote from: Hydra009 on August 07, 2023, 09:28:48 PMUkrainian grain being unloaded at a Turkish port exploded (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-injures-10-near-grain-silos-turkish-port-2023-08-07/). Apparently, it's possible for wheat dust to explode in certain conditions. Authorities are investigating.
Oh, fuck yeah. Wheat dust is combustible and when it's in the air, during the grinding process or when just moving it around, it's basically fuel mixed with air. Medieval mills only operated by day and did not allow light sources like lanterns or candles because BOOM (https://knobelsdorffenterprises.com/grain-elevator-explosions-what-are-they-and-how-to-prevent-them/).
Not bothering to look it up but pretty sure any dust is pretty combustible. If memory works we had a sugar factory and a flour factory blow up over the past.....*counts on toes*....50 odd years.
When I was a kid we used to collect things called iron ore balls, and we sometimes broke them open to get out the powder that was inside them and light it on fire just to show the newbies that it would burn like gunpowder. What fun we had! 🤣
Ukraine established a second bridgehead along the Dniper river near Kherson!
Apparently, the Russian-held bank was guarded by mobniks, because they folded fast. The Ukrainians have a new bridgehead AND PoWs, which is a hell of an accomplishment.
If they're able to advance, they could eventually cut Russian supply lines and split the southern front wide open.
They're not joking about the focus on Russian artillery. I've been watching the daily counts carefully, and it varies from the teens during the slow days to 30+ on busy days.
Wounded Russian soldiers overwhelm medical clinics in occupied Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russian-soldiers/)
Ukrainian forces are in Robotyne (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/11/ukrainian-scouts-are-inside-robotyne-the-first-russian-strongpoint-on-the-road-to-melitopol/?sh=1fc9bd5610eb). Yes, that's a real place, and no, none of its residents are named Dr Robotnik.
How can you be sure? Have you read the phone book?
😉
There was recently a news story about a civilian ship in the Black Sea headed towards Ukraine that was allegedly stopped by a Russian military ship - first by firing warning shots and then using a helicopter to board and search it before ultimately releasing it.
This came from Russian sources, who showed footage of a helicopter landing on a ship, presumably the ship in question and presumably the helicopter contained Russian soldiers.
Well, it turns out that story might not be entirely accurate (https://kyivindependent.com/open-source-intelligence-russia-lies-about-inspecting-palau-flagged-cargo-ship-in-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine/) - Ukraine says that the vessel was asked to stop by the Russians, but it changed course towards Turkish territorial waters and kept going. There was no helicopter or inspection, only threats from the Russians over the radio.
Obviously, one of these stories is more flattering to the Russian military than the other, but who knows which one actually happened. Someone should interview the ship's crew.
Norway military manufacturer Kongsberg Defence to produce anti-drone air defense for Ukraine (https://defence-industry.eu/kongsberg-to-produce-multiple-c-uas-air-defence-systems-for-ukraine/)
Germany military manufacturer Rheinmetall to produce Luna reconnaisance drones for Ukraine (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EMT_Luna_X-2000)
Depending on payload, Luna drones can also perform jamming/evasdropping on Russian radar/radio signals, which could potentially disrupt Russian units and make for some nasty surprises.
Ukrainian fordes destroy Russian armored convoy (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-defense-forces-defeat-russian-t-90m-convoy/)
QuoteUkrainian troops defeated a convoy of Russian armored vehicles that tried to seize Ukrainian positions near Andriyivka.
The video portrays three abandoned T-90M tanks in an unknown condition, as well as two unidentified vehicles that can be presumed to be a vehicle on the MT-LBU chassis and an undesignated IFV.
Three tanks, an armored transport, and an IFV - not a bad haul. Hopefully, some of it can be brought back into action or at least salvaged.
Those...I don't even know what to call them...cope cages? porch screens? are the single worst idea I've ever heard by Russia in its war against Ukraine and I've heard of them bombing their own positions, using North Korean shells (high failure rate, unsurprisingly), driving tanks into lakes, drinking alcohol provided by locals (yep, it's poison), etc.
Let's say a kamikaze drone smashes into that screen. Best case scenario - flaming debris is going all up in that tank anyway. Then, how TF do you get out? The cage creates a deathtrap for the crew! You'd be better off welding the turret shut.
And don't get me started on those airplane cope cages! Those are essentially comfort blankets for adults. They don't do jack all to protect the airplane. It has more gaps than an early 2000s American mall. It's not stopping anything.
Also, Russia's currency, the ruble, has taken a hell of a tumble (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ruble-to-usd-less-than-a-penny-lowest-ukraine-war/) - as of yesterday, $1 usd was worth over 100 rubles.
Russia keeps saying sanctions don't work. So I guess they're saying they did this to themselves?
Quote"A weak ruble complicates the economy's structural transformation and negatively influences real household earnings,"
Layman's terms: businesses can't buy stuff and families can't buy stuff.
QuoteThe strength of the ruble against Western currencies has long been an important yardstick for Russians to measure their country's standing in the world,
I have an idea: just ask Russians how many toilets they have at home. If you get blank stares, you're not very competitive with Western countries. Is good idea, da?
So. Das ruple iz rubble?
"Rosebud."
😭
Too bad there's no emoje for crocodile tears...
Crocodile Tears (https://www.google.com/search?q=crocodile+tears+emoji&rlz=1C1CHZN_enUS973US973&oq=crocodile+tears+emoji&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i390i650l3.24169j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#vhid=cyg42QS5-KO26M&vssid=l)
(https://y.yarn.co/82a3f6d0-5685-490d-8f5c-e672e8bb2998_text.gif)
Red-on-Red: Russian troops fire on each other. (https://ukranews.com/en/news/950061-conflict-arises-between-kadyrov-s-military-and-dagestanis-in-mykhailivka-which-turns-into-a-battle) 20 dead, 40 wounded
It should be noted that this was not a combat area, so this was not a mistake or mistaken identity. Instead, it was a feud between some Kadyrovites and troops from Dagestan.
Quote"During the clash, one of the occupiers was inflicted with numerous stab wounds incompatible with life.
(https://i.imgur.io/DfAMYHt_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
The Zelenskyys send their regards.
QuoteThis led to an open confrontation between the units using underbarrel grenade launchers GP-25 Koster, hand grenades and small automatic weapons,"
Couldn't have happened to nicer people.
Or more deserving people... ☠️
Don't know enough about Dagestanis who serve in the Rusisan army, but any dead Kadyrovite objectively makes the world a thousand times better - traitors to their own people as well as to humanity.
Quote from: Shiranu on August 15, 2023, 05:59:23 PMDon't know enough about Dagestanis who serve in the Rusisan army, but any dead Kadyrovite objectively makes the world a thousand times better - traitors to their own people as well as to humanity.
Not known with certainty, so don't quote me on this, but initial reports said that some of the Kadyrovites were drunk and that's the main reason there was trouble.
Ukrainian forces have developed a new tactic for demining:
they use drones with thermal imagers and wait for the summer sun to heat up any exposed metal, causing the mines to appear to glow on their thermal imagers.
Not sure how effective this is, but every discovered mine is a mine not harming Ukrainian forces.
Edit - some of the comments on this telegram post warn against revealing this information to the Russians. Rest assured that these minefields are more or less already planted and are unlikely to be changed except by minesweepers. Also, Russia does not have some secret stockpile of physics-defying mines kept in reserve for just this occassion LOL
Russia put out a video of them "destroying" a Stryker vehicle with a Lancet drone.
The video was factually correct and really happened, but they left out one tiny detail: the vehicle continued to operate after being hit.
The Russian edited video and the whole video give two very different impressions.
There was another similar video where a Bradley received Russian artillery fire (footage is first-person pov from the Bradley) and continued to operate. Ukraine released the footage to show how tough Western vehicles are and much more protective of their crew than Soviet-era vehicles.
Russia edited the video to give the false appearance that the artillery strike destroyed it.
So be careful out there when viewing war footage.
Edit - here's a link (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-stryker-seen-in-frontline-video-for-the-first-time)
Two experts were consulted about the Stryker under attack by Lancet drone, one said that it's impossible to determine based on such short footage, but guesses that Russia probably did not achieve what they wanted (the vehicle likely survived). The other expert, who spoke on the condition of anonymity but whose name probably ends in -ov or -in, claimed that the lack of a cope cage (probably not the exact words) likely meant that the hit destroyed the vehicle and crew. Clearly, the lack of wooden pavilions built on top of their vehicles was a huge oversight by Ukrainian high command.
Yeah. War footage shouldn't have jump cuts like a vlogbrothers video.
"Stab wounds incompatible with life."
I guess that's one way of describing it.
Quote from: ferdmonger on August 16, 2023, 07:15:07 PM"Stab wounds incompatible with life."
I guess that's one way of describing it.
Translated Ukrainian is wonderfully unconventional in its word choice.
I have no clue -> I am in lack of clue about that
The enemy is incompetent -> The enemy is in lack of competence
Likely untrue -> It may not be like that
Ukraine officially liberates Urozhaine (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-urozhaine-donetsk-liberated-counteroffensive-1820063)! Southern front keeps getting pushed back.
The strike on the firing range (an ironic target) likely wasn't HIMARS. I swear, the Russians sometimes think that fireworks are HIMARS and people reading their posts just take it as a given. HIMARS strikes are very distinct. This was probably some other artillery.
German container ship Josef Schulte flaunts Russian blockade - seemingly without consequences (https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/16/ukraine-shipping-russia-black-sea-grain-deal-drone-port-strikes/)
It left the Ukrainian port of Odesa, traveled south and hugged the coast until it made it to the large grouping of ships just off the Romanian port of Sulina (the ships are just barely south of Ukrainian borders), currently en route to the Turkish port of Ambarli (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9605243). And since it's no longer in Ukrainian waters, the chances of it being attacked are now basically zero. And yes, Romania is part of NATO, so F-around and find out rules apply.
Fun fact: the container ship is flying a Hong Kong flag.
You'd think the Russians would be able to interdict it easily. Yet their Black Sea fleet is not what it once was, frequent smoking accidents and all. Less of a naval fleet and more like a I-Hope-It-Can-Still-Floatilla. They're also reluctant to get anywhere near Ukrainian shore since Ukraine has a Neptune missile with their name on it. Definitely a strange tactical situation to declare a blockade, though they also tried to annex territory they're retreating from, so there's definitely a bit of wishful thinking going on.
To compensate for a weakening ruble, Russia decided to raise its interest rates from 8.5% to 12% (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66508154)
Scratch two Alligator helicopters (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-downed-2-russian-ka-52-helicopters-1-morning-2023-8)
One near near Robotyne, the other near Bakhmut
QuoteThe Ka-52, known as the "Alligator" by Russia and "Hokum-B" by NATO, has been described by the Kremlin as the "world's best helicopter gunship," Kyiv Post reported.
QuoteBut Ukraine has been fighting back: Independent weapons monitoring group Oryx said 40 Ka-52 helicopters have been confirmed as damaged or destroyed through visual evidence. That figure does not include the two announcements on Thursday.
The group added that in total 88 Russian helicopters have been confirmed as destroyed in Ukraine, with 12 more damaged and one captured.
Each one costs $16 million, so that's at least $640 million usd down the drain. And Russia only had 133 of them as of 2022, so that's about 1/3 of the total, assuming they're all flight-worthy and not in a state of disrepair or cannibalized for parts.
Azov brigade and its returned leadership is now back in action (https://news.yahoo.com/azov-brigade-returns-battlefield-begins-123000214.html) near Kreminna
Russia has reportedly been shoring up the eastern front with its remaining "elite" units while the southern front has been urgently complaining of lack of manpower. Quite the strategy.
With Western-trained Ukrainian units returning and the rare example of units like Azov reforming, the infantry quality difference couldn't be more stark. And Ukraine has been steadily closing the equipment gap to the point that they're now starting to get the edge in terms of artillery and armor - Russia's main strong suit. If the Ukrainians can clear the sky as well, Russia will have no advantage at all.
The German container ship safely arrived at Turkish port, ignoring the so-called Russian blockade.
This paves the way (figuratively speaking, it's water) for other ships to follow suit, along the proposed humsnitarian corridor.
Ukraine strikes Russian airfield in Muscovy, destroys one bomber (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-drone-airfield-attack-novgorod-chernihiv-1821062)
QuoteLocal media reported that the airfield targeted in the attack was in the town of Soltsy, around 50 miles southwest of the region's capital, Veliky Novgorod.
Strategic Russian Tu-22M3 bombers carrying X-22 missiles are believed to be based at the airfield. Russia deployed the Tupolev Tu-22M3 during its bombing of the Donetsk city of Mariupol in 2022.
"A fire broke out in the aircraft parking lot, which was quickly extinguished. One plane was damaged, no one was injured," the Russian defense ministry said
(https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2023/08/20/Russian-base-Tu-23M3-attack.jpg?auto=webp&crop=16%3A9&auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=100&width=920)
"Damaged"
I suppose it is technically true that the fire was quickly extinguished. And I assume that anyone there was either unharmed or roasting marshmallows with Hitler, so it may also be true that no one was injured.
Meanwhile, Muscovy bombed civilians in lieu of military targets (one wonders why they're losing this war).
On telegram, Russian channels were bragging about killing children. Sick pieces of work. It is one thing to take a certain satisfaction from the destruction of military targets during wartime - especially those who would otherwise attack civilians. It is quite another to rejoice in genocide and torture and all manner of crimes against humanity. War is always terrible, but it is sometimes justifiable (case in point) to prevent even greater destruction.
Muscovy should thank its lucky stars that they picked a fight with someone much less bloodthirsty than they are. The Ukrainians will merely drive the invaders out of their territory. They offer Russian POWs a fairly decent existence. Hell, the Ukrainians even sometimes watch cartoons with them (Masha and the Bear is a popular pick). Ukraine pulls their punches often. Russia does not - often going out of its way to engage in wanton cruelty without the slightest conscience. Russia keeps pushing them and someday they'll end up regretting it.
I love the psychological dimension. Ukrainian leaders' moves are indeed unsettling - confident, casual, even joyful - the exact opposite of what Russian propaganda depicts. And various tweets have hinted at something ominous for Russia (we all live in a yellow submarine) - sparking a great deal of worry without having enough information to have any ability to do anything about it.
They are doing their best to cause panic in the enemy. The best example of that is the periodic strikes on the Crimean bridge, sparking wave after wave of exodus of tearful Russian civilians. Again, Russian propaganda says that all is well and it can protect, yet Russians see explosions and damage. The Russian narrative crumbles. Putin grips his desk. Russian mercenaries and infantry exchange recriminations. Ukraine is driving quite a psychological wedge between the Russian ruling class and people. In time, maybe those seeds will sprout...
I watched a video of a Russian tank column drive down a road into a minefield. After two tanks hit mines, instead of stopping, reversing and backtracking their way out; the others wandered haphazardly around until almost every tank blew up. The UK army seems to know how to place mines well.
There has to be a minefield protocol, right?...is this just poor training?
(https://i.imgur.io/NzDlu6E_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
Ad astra per aspera
Ad aspera per aspera
Surprised they even admitted the moon shot fail.
Just can't tell which one is more qualified to be speaking about air defense systems and promoting/debunking Russian propaganda...
Dude, where's my heli: Russian helicoter lands in Kharkiv region, swiftly captured by Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/23/7416758/)
This was likely intentional by the pilot (who just so happened to have moved his family to free Ukraine in advance), not so much for the two passengers:
QuoteAlong with the pilot on board were two crew members who did not know where the helicopter was actually flying.
As a result of the special operation, two crew members were eliminated.
They died like they lived, not knowing what was going on.
Prigozhin Listed as Passenger on Plane That Crashed, Killing All Aboard. Prigozhin has not been identified. Was he on the plane? Something tells me there is more going on here. But maybe not.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20230823&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline®i_id=129705843&segment_id=142720&user_id=33a2a6e6868fd65c48b0f219d16ed7c2
In Russia, a small private plane crashed and everyone onboard was killed. There is rampant speculation that Prigozhin was onboard, but nothing can be confirmed at this time.
Edit - SGOS beat me to it
Wagner's second plane landed safely. So maybe he survived.
If he didn't die, there will likely be a second march on Moscow in the cards. Either way, from Ukraine's perspective, it's a win.
Edit - some of the Wagner people are damn near revolting (they stink on ice), so there may be another run on Moscow no matter what happened.
Wagner forces are departing Belarus and headed towards Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-wagner-convoys-head-to-russia-after-fatal-crash/)
🔥🍿
It could also be a face-saving fake. Putler wouldn't kill an old friend and some Wagner staff in such an obvious manner, would he, LOL?
Quote from: Cassia on August 24, 2023, 06:59:45 AMIt could also be a face-saving fake. Putler wouldn't kill an old friend and some Wagner staff in such an obvious manner, would he, LOL?
He would if he thought he could get away with it. It's unknown if a leaderless Wagner would be much of a threat.
Ukrainian forces launched a daring amphibious raid in Crimea (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-crimea-casualties/) (I always wondered why the Russians mined the coast - apparently, this is why)
They reportedly caused further damage to Russian air defense, exaccerbating the attrition already caused by drones, which bagged a s-400 yesterday.
The Russians had formidable air defenses over Crimea, but piece by piece, they are being dismantled - a strategy also employed against the Black Sea fleet remnants, Russian logistics, and Russian infantry. Put enough pressure and sooner or later, something will break.
Honestly, when it was reported a group called Wagner was uprising (?), short after (5 days) that the news of Prigozhin sitting down with Putin for an arrangement sounded so ridiculous to me, I had 'a something's wrong with this' moment back then. Well, what do I know? But then in terms of basic rationality, would anyone do such a thing under these circumstances? Putin's reputation is made on taking revenge for any kind of betrayal aside for the general murders and assassinations of all kinds he's been committing for yeeaars now. I mean, you don't even need to be Putin. Anyone in Putin's place and position would first think to kill him just for punishment as an example, or kill him for 'He tried it once, why not again?'.
How is that a mercenary soldier who has served 9 years of sentence in Soviet prison; referred himself as 'Putin's butcher' (he was a caterer before Putin picked him up and how he met & got close to Kremlin); apparently killed in his name in peace time and did a tons of dirty work, cannot calculate this? Or why would he think he would be an exception? You probably know that Prigozhin has also founded-financed a troll farm to intervene 2016 US elections (2 years after he's founded Wagner), admitted by himself in 2022. (And many suspects Russia had done the similar for the election where I live, multiple times.)
I don't know. Stinks bad. Or may be just too simple, so looks confusing from afar.
It feels like Wagner was an idiot. He cuts through Russia's defenses like butter, but right at the finish line, he has second thoughts? Now the idiot has been assassinated. Like, what did he think was going to happen? If you're going to lead a coup, commit to it. You can't just do half a coup.
Quote from: Blackleaf on August 25, 2023, 02:10:41 AMIt feels like Wagner was an idiot. He cuts through Russia's defenses like butter, but right at the finish line, he has second thoughts? Now the idiot has been assassinated. Like, what did he think was going to happen? If you're going to lead a coup, commit to it. You can't just do half a coup.
Yeah, lol, you put it better than me. But if he was such an idiot, how the hell did he come that far?
Wagner troops 'plotting march to Russia to avenge leader's death'
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/wagner-troops-plotting-march-russia-101146813.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEI_y0VfSnZBCjKvjdc5I4fuR4XQUFhd4HzAj6Ppv-Zp0-T0eU4ozbQLK1JpOwd9blAd_BKkmajoiJBAibeZ-mcnLcyvmR9SF8zybI7Fi-56x9bwg_ez4I3MwXfjTz40qd5rt13TmsPrImjdaUp9OHJsC5mzj20JRGRkEPaflFre&guccounter=2
And then they will sit down with Putler about their demands?
Ukrainian forces released a video where they had already captured a Russian trench and two Russian infantry run towards the trench, apparently believing it was still theirs (bad comms?). One was gunned down and the other captured with quite a surprised look on his face.
Compared to his comrade (and the Russian troops previously manning the trench), he was lucky as hell.
On Telegram, there's footage of the Russians unloading an IS-8 tank (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-10_tank), presumably to be sent into combat.
These tanks were built just after WWII and obviously are horribly antiquated and underperforming compared to T-62s and T-72s, let alone relatively modern western tanks. This stuff is only moderately better than actual WWII tanks like the T-34.
According to Ukrainian sources, about 60-70% of their sea drones are destroyed before they hit the target.
This seems bad, but remember that Ukraine has many more drones than Russia has ships, and they are much, much cheaper to produce.
So basically, Ukraine can send 10 drones after a target and score 3-4 direct hits on average. That's enough to cause severe damage, probably destroy just about anything. The Russian military supply vessel Sig was hit by just one drone and that created an enormous hole. Any additional hits would've probably destroyed it.
Quote from: drunkenshoe on August 25, 2023, 02:16:19 AMYeah, lol, you put it better than me. But if he was such an idiot, how the hell did he come that far?
My guess? Putin outclassed Wagner in his astounding incompetence.
Wagner cemetary levelled (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/25/7417106/)
One Wagner soldier is distraught that Russia would treat its heroes this way.
Newsflash: Wagner was never anything more than disposable pawns.
The second transport ship (https://kyivindependent.com/monitor-another-vessel-leaves-odesa-port-via-black-sea-corridor/) leaves Ukrainian port, follows grain corridor
The Primus, a bulk carrier, had been docked at Odessa port since the invasion began. Now, it is sailing towards Bulgaria under a Liberian flag.
Turret toss hall of fame:
Lots of news lately, too much for me to cover well while traveling:
* the ship Primus successfully made it to Bulgaria, the second ship to completely ignore the Russian "blockade" and deliver its cargo without incident.
* Ukraine attacked the Russian airfield at Kursk with kamakaze drones. According to the Ukrainians, they seriously damaged 4 Su-30 fighter/bombers, 1 Mig-29, several s-300 radars, and two Pantsir AA.
* Partisans in Crimea report the latest batch of Russian casualties: 14 killed entirely by stabbing. One was stabbed through the heart, the others had their throats slit. Long live the fighters.
* Russian fortifications have repeatedly come under cluster munitions fire and those pretty little zig-zag trenches become a charnel house after half a second of bombardment. Often, the Russians have had to form hasty retreats. (The main thing slowing the Ukrainians down now are the minefields) The Ukrainians have shown footage of Russian in full combat gear pancaked on dirt roads, allegedly by their own vehicles. As the saying goes, haste makes waste.
* Ukrainian forces have advanced on the village south of Robotyne and the Russians are bringing in their VDV (airborne) as reinforcements. With the departure of Wagner, the VDV - the less than half that remain - are Russia's most elite infantry. Nevertheless, they're extremely diluted and overworked by Russia, which sends them from hotspot to hotspot without rest or appropriate care. These upcoming fights will be critical in determining the outcome of the southern front. If the Ukrainians wipe the floor with the VDV as I predict, they will be able to keep advancing to Tokmak, Melitopol, and/or Berdansk.
I know I shouldn't watch Russian state tv (including Fox News) but this clip was hilarious (https://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article278663024.html). Putin's Russia can't seem to make up its mind: is the US an oppressive global hegemon or a weak state inferior to Russia in every way? Cause it can't be both.
Truthfully, the US has its share of problems and setbacks on the world stage (cut to footage of Afghanistan being overrun by Taliban) but in Europe, things are going great for the US.
Because of Russia's war on Ukraine (the Russian propagandists erroneously say the US started the war, which is laughable) everyone and their brother wants HIMARS and Patriots. Defense contracts galore. Poland in particular is insatiable. They also want liquid natural gas, which the US is happy to provide. Mad Vlad has also expanded NATO/EU power, which has indirectly benefitted the US. Oh, and our hand-me-downs from three decades ago are utterly annihilating Russians (doing what they were designed to do) while not risking any American soldiers. And after this war is over and Ukraine gets its land back and gets back on its feet, we will also secure a fantastic new trading partner able to produce basically everything Russia produces but better and without that backstabbing stuff Russia is known for. So yeah, things are going pretty well for the US.
(https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/19d60187-4d07-493a-8327-42e19c06a3d3.jpeg?format=webp)
Throwing conscripts at cluster munitions, now there's a winning strategy.
(https://i.imgur.io/FmHIZ58_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
On one hand, that's messed up and ain't fooling anyone.
On the other, can we get a US presidential candidate whose first Walkman wasn't a phonograph?
Ukraine has been kicking serious ass lately and I'm all for it.
They even have a Khorne unit, complete with symbol, operating at the frontline and like their namesake, they don't mess around.
Btw, "carpet mode" is a Russian term for when a region is placed on high alert after sighting an enemy drone. I guess it's like a tornado/hurricane warning, which means that one is definitely in the area and you need to brace for it asap.
I'd love to watch this guy play poker. :)
Four Russian Il-76s confirmed destroyed at Pskov (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3754871-four-il76-airlifters-confirmed-as-destroyed-in-russias-pskov-ukrainian-intel.html)
Other planes are damaged, but the full extent of the damage is still unknown.
This is important because these planes carry sensitive and high-value military cargo (https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/how_many_il_76_aircraft_are_destroyed_and_what_does_it_mean_for_russia-7786.html) and Russia has a very limited ability to replace them. We're talking production of maybe 5 per year. So this one attack set them back at least a year.
-- the Russian propagandists erroneously say the US started the war --
Truly disgusting when you look back at the 'meeting' with his cabinet prior to the invasion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI
Yeah, his underling was clearly window-nervous and jumped the gun to annexing those Ukrainian territories into Russia instead of merely "recognizing their independence". I hope those words come back to haunt those land-grabbers in the coming Russian civil war, when there may be good cause to consider one or more regions to be independent of Muscovy.
Putin's demeanor has really changed since pre-invasion. He was cocky and smugly arrogant. Now he is staring into the abyss and clawing at anything he can so as not to tumble into it. It's only a matter of time until something happens and topples his power. Maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, maybe next year. But it's coming.
Has anyone seen this?
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/16669uy/to_all_russian_soldiers_a_detailed_instruction_on/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Yes, the I Want To Live hotline. It instructs Russian soldiers/units on how to properly surrender. As of April, they got about 3,000 calls per month. That's an outdated statistic and probably more by now.
Voluntary surrenders do happen. One Russian soldier surrendered a tank last year, which was a helluva payday for him and of course he also got to live and the chance to apply for Ukrainian citizenship so he can start a new life if he desires, since his old life clearly wasn't working out. Recently, a Russian pilot surrendered a military helicopter and since he moved his family to Ukraine beforehand, it definitely seems premeditated.
Overall, Ukraine reports that about 20% of captured Russians surrendered voluntarily.
It would probably be more, but the Russians are wise to that sort of thing and are known to shoot at anyone attempting surrender. One Russian surrendered to a drone but had to dramatically flee from Russian forces - who shot at him - into no-man's land and scramble through hell before he finally made it to a Ukrainian trench and was safely in Ukrainian custody. I imagine that sort of thing doesn't always work out.
--I imagine that sort of thing doesn't always work out.--
No shit. Ish.
Reaping the weeds: Russian lieutenant colonel killed by Ukrainian drone while gardening (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-colonel-killed-ukraine-war-belgorod-drone-strike-1822968)
For reasons that escape me, he decided to be near the border with Ukraine. I guess he didn't think they could retaliate. Well, they can. They can hit Moscow. So there should be no expectation of safety anywhere between Kyiv and Moscow.
Russian computer chip maker goes bankrupt (https://www.tomshardware.com/news/russian-chipmaker-baikal-goes-bankrupt-assets-valued-at-only-dollar5-million)
QuoteT-Platforms, the parent company of Russian chipmaker Baikal Electronics, has declared bankruptcy and is auctioning off its assets, including intellectual property related to Baikal processors, one of a few designers of CPUs and system-on-chips from Russia, reports CNews. According to Kommersant, the total value of these assets is estimated at $5 million.
As expected, the chips are obsolete and bad quality and they've had production problems even before sanctions. Sanctions ruined them, and because the technology is so outdated, it's valued very low for a tech company.
And without domestic production or trade with Taiwan, Russia has to rely either on appliance disassembly or largess from China to get their computer chips.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 01, 2023, 01:06:29 AMRussian computer chip maker goes bankrupt (https://www.tomshardware.com/news/russian-chipmaker-baikal-goes-bankrupt-assets-valued-at-only-dollar5-million)
As expected, the chips are obsolete and bad quality and they've had production problems even before sanctions. Sanctions ruined them, and because the technology is so outdated, it's valued very low for a tech company.
And without domestic production or trade with Taiwan, Russia has to rely either on appliance disassembly or largess from China to get their computer chips.
I looked them up and they were basically a fabless, ARM-based design firm. So, no big deal anyways. I even "plopped" ARM cores into programmable logic chips back in the '90s.
The ruble and the Russian economy are going south. Wish I had a magic wand to know how this ends. Vlad is in a bad way right now, and I don't see it getting any better. A horrible economy and that three day "special operation" aren't aging well. Oh, and never mind the internal strife.
Quote from: ferdmonger on September 01, 2023, 05:46:48 PMThe ruble and the Russian economy are going south. Wish I had a magic wand to know how this ends. Vlad is in a bad way right now, and I don't see it getting any better. A horrible economy and that three day "special operation" aren't aging well. Oh, and never mind the internal strife.
(https://storiesbywilliams.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/hari_seldon.jpg)
I predict an Iran or North Korean sort of pariah state isolation from the world for decades. (70% chance) If you think Russia's not doing well right now, just wait. It's even possible that it balkanizes, especially Chechnya. (20% chance)
It's also possible that things swiftly change and Putin is gone, a "moderate" by Russian standards is put in charge, and some sort of reconciliation is attempted. (10% chance)
(https://i.imgur.io/ILk5EVE_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
23 tanks! (https://news.yahoo.com/russia-loses-almost-500-soldiers-110500103.html) Wooot!
At this rate, if Putin wants to mobilize, he'll have to do in T-34s!
Yeah, I heard they're greasing up the old Soviet-era tanks.
Ukrainian forces have broken through Russia's first line of defense (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/02/everything-is-ahead-of-us-ukraine-breaks-russias-first-line-of-defence-in-stronghold) and are nearing its second line.
Of the three main defensive lines, Russia spent about 60% of its time/resources on the first line of defense (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/3/7418200/), and only 20% each on the second line and third line. So some Ukrainian units actually have the worst behind them.
Russian unit turns to sacked former general for guidance instead of new general (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russian-officers-reportedly-contact-former-general-amid-deteriorating-conditions-on-front-line/)
(https://i.imgur.com/EIbUeA0.jpeg)
59 supply trucks go boom. Putting a hurt on Russian logistics.
'All Our Guys Were Slaughtered' – Intercepted Phone Calls Suggest Huge Russian Losses (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21203)
QuoteThe soldier then goes on to claim that the massacre took place because the unit was "way too relaxed" and had been drinking ahead of an expected rotation out from the frontlines.
On my telegram feed, it says that the Russian 4th tank divison was trying a mass armored assault near Svatove but Ukrainian FPV drones caused devastating losses, causing the assault to fail. This may or not be related to the intercepted calls. As usual, I await official confirmation, but this could be a big win for Ukraine.
200 Ukrainians have completed training on the Abrams tank (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/31/ukrainian-soldiers-complete-training-abrams-tanks-00113668) and the first batch of 10 is expected to arrive mid-September with 21 more coming sometime after.
The US will send depleted uranium shells to equip them with. (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-send-its-first-depleted-uranium-rounds-ukraine-sources-2023-09-01/)
I don't expect them to be a much of a game-changer, but every bit helps. Plus, there's something fundamentally wrong about Bradleys operating without their big brother, so it's good that they'll be operating together.
What we really need is a bunch of warthogs destroying Russian trenches and wreaking havoc behind Russian lines. If this really is a war between NATO and Russia, then make it so. Vlad, your only fall back is tactical nukes, and that threat was used up long ago.
(https://i.imgur.com/rEZaBiK.jpeg)
37 tanks! Holy smokes!
Evidently, that convoy ambush was true and far more devastating than I thought.
A russian tank battalion is supposed to have 36-40 tanks, so that's basically an entire tank battalion wiped from the board in one day.
At this point, it doesn't matter how many conscripts you can muster, armored losses like these are devastating, not easily or quickly replaced, and completely unsustainable.
Ukrainian defense forces eliminate three Russian tank battalions in a week
(https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3757054-defense-forces-eliminate-three-russian-tank-battalions-in-one-week.html)
Quote"Over the past week, the following were eliminated: personnel - 3,810 (nearly 8 battalions); tanks - 80 (about 3 tank battalions); armored combat vehicles - 101 (about 3 motorized rifle battalions); artillery units - 186 (around 10 artillery divisions); missiles — 322," the report says.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5SrR3MW8AADuOf?format=webp&name=900x900)
Speaking of, a drone crashed not far from one of Vlad's estates in Moscow. Tick Tock.
Also, a Challenger tank was officially destroyed - the first time in this conflict.
It hit a mine, was hit by Russian artillery, and was finished off by a Lancet drone. Its 6 crew members survived, which imo is a testament to Western engineering. They would be dead right now if they were in Soviet crap.
Losses like this are bound to happen. It's why the Ukrainians need a lot more than what they already have.
(https://i.imgur.com/keNOVh6.jpeg)
36 artillery. Silencing those guns piece by piece.
Hurray for our team! 🫡
Russia tries to protect its planes...with old car tires. (https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/europe/russia-aircraft-car-tires-ukraine-drones-intl-hnk/index.html)
Cope cages, meet cope goodyear blimp.
Again, I'm no combat expert, but I'm pretty sure rubber - especially donut-shaped rubber - isn't effective armor. *demonstrates by putting his whole arm through the hole* I guess the motto behind this one is that some armor > no armor. But airplanes are designed with certain specifications in mind, so duct-taping a bunch of stuff on it is likely to interfere with its normal operations.
Now, I get the idea. Some type of standoff armor to cushion the blow, which to be fair, Ukraine does this too. But it's more like a bunch of netting at least several feet from the vehicle and that's against a very specific type of drone attack (Lancet) and... -and this is important- ...there's footage of this stuff actually doing the trick (https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/TPAJ3VZUGVM5LC5CDUERE63TOE.jpg).
HIMARS strike.
You can tell by the central explosion with lots of little tungsten balls spreading out like fireworks. The tungsten balls finish off whatever the central explosion didn't destroy. It has a much larger damage circle than one might expect - even tough materials get turned into swiss cheese by those little tungsten balls.
The target was a warehouse storing missiles used by Ka-52 Russian attack helicopters. As normal, the Ukrainians are tying to starve the guns.
(https://i.imgur.com/pKHUjir.jpeg)
37 artillery. Nice work.
US intelligence believes that Ukraine can break through Russia's two remaining fortification lines by the end of the year (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/7/7418820/)
QuoteAfter three months of slow progress, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is gaining momentum. "Had we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would have been slightly more pessimistic. Their breakthrough on that second defensive belt...is actually pretty considerable," Trent Maul says.
QuoteMaul says two critical variables are extremely important: Ukraine's ammunition supply, vital to support the artillery that ensures the advance, and the weather in the fall.
QuoteSergey Surovikin, the Russian general who built the defence lines, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose Wagner mercenaries have achieved Russia's most tangible successes in the past year, are both out of action, the former fired, and the latter killed in a plane crash.
Such a shame.
Unrelated: Russia's dragon's teeth poorly deployed, basically a joke (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-dragons-teeth-defenses-a-joke-says-ex-ukraine-commander-2023-9)
QuoteRussia's infamous "dragon's teeth" defenses were mocked by a Ukrainian former commander, who said they were easily breached by Ukraine's tanks.
Quote"Why these pyramids were built, to be honest, is a mystery to me," said Dykyi. "The only rational explanation is that someone simply gobbled up the budget. Because there is absolutely no use from them as they don't stop tanks," he said.
"If you remember, maybe several years ago it was fashionable to put so-called energy pyramids on the tables, which were supposed to protect against negative energies. The use of these concrete pyramids is exactly the same."
Apparently, the dragon's teeth weren't buried properly and in some cases, the line took less than a day to breach. Which is mystifying, because the rest of the Surovikin Line is actually pretty well-designed. It's like the saying, "Man makes plans, but Private Conscriptovich laughs"
(https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/b3f8e921-dd16-4371-9398-d0a0440a81ea.jpeg?format=webp)
This is fun to look at between videos of Ukrainians marching with Russian POWs in tow.
It's true that there is a cultural link - they both use the same brand of blue tape, though the Russians seem to prefer it tying their hands while the Ukrainians like it more as an armband.
(https://i.imgur.com/3rDDUqd.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/kqVfNzn.jpeg)
It's one thing to read about this stuff, but it's quite another to see this stuff and really take in the reality of it.
This is probably the dumbest thing Russia has done in the entire war. It looks like they put Oscar the Grouch in charge of the airfield. It makes the Russian airforce look like a joke. If I were in their shoes, I'd be mortified of photos like this going public. This is one of those take-to-the-grave sorts of mistakes.
How do the pilots even fly these things??
let's play bumper jets.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5lIOXsWwAADbtw?format=webp&name=900x900)
Don't get your hopes up, but there's been a flurry of articles about the US maybe sending ATACMS in the next aid package (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722).
It seems silly to consider HIMARS and tanks and F-16s acceptable but to consider ATACMS an unacceptable escalation. Russia has no such qualms as it routinely bombs civilians and disrupts trade to the point of intentionally causing starvation as a blackmail tactic, among other things. This can be reduced considerably, but only with bold action.
Sick and tired of Oligarch Elon and Garry Kasparov (https://i.imgur.com/tENzXAS.jpeg) says it better than I can. Suffice it to say that Dictator Putin is empowered by oligarchs around the world.
Ukraine kills 49 Russian paratroopers, Russia refuses to retrieve the bodies (https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/ukraine-killed-49-elite-russian-paratroopers-in-a-single-day-and-russia-refused-to-retrieve-the-bodies-isw-report-says/articleshow/103475630.cms)
That's another morifyingly embarrassing blunder. Not only losing, but losing and showing not even basic regard for your own troops.
QuoteIt said that in the recording the soldier said he was going to retrieve the bodies himself as the Russian command would not do it.
Jeez. And they wonder why morale's so low. Not only will Russia not pay you and let you die, they'll leave you to the crows.
Russian general: Ukraine "just a stepping stone" for further aggression (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-general-admits-ukraine-just-stepping-stone-invade-europe-1825776)
Bear in mind that early into the Ukrainian war, when Russians were much more confident of victory, Russian officials regularly threatened that Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Baltics, and/or Poland would be next. Those first two are very probable, with Russian troops nearby and those countries are completely outmatched by Russian forces on paper. Those last two are theoretically protected due to being NATO members, but as I type this, recently Russian drones rained down on Romanian soil and you tell me NATO's response to that. Poland certainty isn't leaving its sovereignty to chance and others' whims, and is arming itself to the teeth. I don't blame them one bit.
This is so colossally stupid that I have a hard time thinking it's real, but this is from a military that armored its jets with spare tires, so really nothing is off the table.
Russian military reveals firing positions while shooting at Ukrainian flag attached to balloons (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/10/russian-military-reveals-firing-positions-while-shooting-at-ukrainian-flag-attached-to-balloons/)
You read that right: Ukrainian civilians launched a Ukrainian flag lifted by balloons that wafted over into Russian-controlled territory and the dumb orcs were so stupid and hate-filled that they just started blasting, apparently not realizing that there's this little thing called operational secrecy and going berserk is a surefire way to get noticed, located, and possibly annihilated by enemy fire.
This whole thing is Schmuck Bait if I ever saw it. A brief definition - Schmuck Bait is super obvious bait that will absolutely cause you to suffer negative consequences if you fall for it, like a shiny treasure chest surrounded by lethal traps. Only an idiot would approach. Cue the traps going off.
One of Russia's many serious weaknesses is that a lot of its troops are poorly trained with basically no discipline, as well as rampant alcoholism, which counteracts any training or discipline. So if you test their discipline and make failure painful, you can cause quite a lot of pain.
Of course, most pro-Russian conservatives miss the most important issue with the US supporting Ukraine as we are. Financial sanctions damage the dollar's standing as the reserve currency. It's not like the other 'BRICS' countries didn't notice how the US froze Russian-owned US Treasuries. If you weaponize the US dollar you are also lessening its global appeal.
China, Russia, India, Brazil and the Saudis have more than half of the world's oil and population, so if they stop trading in dollars; it's kind of a big deal. This war seems to have accelerated their efforts. They have already launched their own versions of The World Bank and International Monetary Fund and there are dozens of countries lined up to join.
Ukrainian forces destroy six Russian boats near Kherson region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/11/7419283/)
Ukraine retakes oil platform near Crimea (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/11/7419331/)
Russia had been using it as a helicopter landing site and to deploy radar equipment, so now that's denied to them.
Ukraine partially retakes Opytne (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/10/7419221/)
This territory was stolen by Russia back in Nov 2022, so this is a happy wiki update (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opytne,_Pokrovsk_Raion,_Donetsk_Oblast). Also, it denies use of the Donetsk airfield by Russia, which is a nice strategic win.
Note: don't be like me and assume they're talking about Opytne just south of Bakhmut. That one is still deep in enemy territory. :'(
The one that was liberated is close to Avdiivka, not the one close to Bakhmut. Man, it really is true that Americans only learn geography through war. :/
Russia gets made fun of a lot for its problems at the tactical level: cope cages, drunkenness, poor equipment, poor training, poor logistics, drunkenness, friendly fire, etc.
But where it really drops the ball is at the strategic level - 'cause lemmee tell ya, repositioning troops from the south to the east on the eve of the counterattack was a HUGE strategic blunder. Even a dum-dum like me correctly predicted a push towards Melitopol.
Also, apparently Gerasimov had the bright idea to put as many troops to bear on the front lines as possible rather than keeping some in reserve (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/9/2192316/-Ukraine-Update-Gerasimov-s-irrational-optimism-may-be-a-fatal-problem). So now they're desperately trying to send in reinforcements to areas where the first and sometimes the second lines have already been breached. That's like sending in firefighters after half the building is already toast. Too little, too late.
Also, the wasting of Russian lives in Severodonetsk and then the supremely pyrrhic victory in Bakhmut. If it hadn't been for these Russian "victories", then the Kharkiv offensive wouldn't have rapidly forced them out nor would they have had to abandon Kherson city, nor would their lines be so thinned out that they more or less ceded the initiative on all future operations to Ukraine. (Russia must react to Ukraine, rather than vice versa)
Russian telegram:
Quote"During the retreat of our troops near Donetsk, a tragedy occurred. We reported that our forces had slightly retreated, and the Ukrainians had advanced toward Donetsk and Donetsk Airport. A source in the General Staff provided us with new details of this troop withdrawal.
"Unfortunately, not everyone retreated in an orderly and coordinated manner. Some soldiers withdrew to new positions chaotically and practically in panic. As a result, a tragedy occurred - our military personnel were killed by their own artillery fire," our source said.
According to him, a large group of soldiers retreating toward the airport was hit by their own artillery fire. "Our troops assumed that it was the Ukrainians coming to seize Donetsk Airport and launched a massive attack. As a result, 27 soldiers were killed, and 34 were wounded. Approximately half of the wounded have lost their arms or legs. Several pieces of equipment were lost as well. It's just horrifying," the source lamented.
🍿🍿🍿
Not a crossover I necessarily expected, but one of my favorite gun historians interviewed a Western instructor on his experience with the Ukrainians. Nothing incredibly shocking, but some more fun detail as to why Ukraine has been able to surprise and Russia... likewise surprises, in the opposite direction.
Calls to Surrender Hotline increase by 70% after Russian helicopter pilot defects (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russian-calls-to-surrender-hotline-rise-70-after-helicopter-pilot-defection/)
Can't blame 'em. That guy got $500,000 usd in his pocket and got his family to live in a country that isn't a sh**hole. That's a helluva incentive.
Ukraine blows up Russian base with drone operators (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-russian-military-base-of-drone-operators/)
Due to noise complaints (?!) a british base has reduced its training of Ukrainian soldiers (https://kyivindependent.com/the-times-uk-cuts-training-to-ukrainian-troops-after-noise-complaints/)
I mean, I get it, those bases are working overtime after a relative lull and the locals don't like hearing WWIII outside their door. But people who live in Kharkiv and Kherson and Dnipro don't like hearing WWIII outside their door as well, and their situation is a lot more serious. So now might be a good time for that stiff upper lip Britain is famous for. At the very least, compensate by balancing it out with activity at other bases.
Quote from: Shiranu on September 12, 2023, 04:17:30 PM
Not a crossover I necessarily expected, but one of my favorite gun historians interviewed a Western instructor on his experience with the Ukrainians. Nothing incredibly shocking, but some more fun detail as to why Ukraine has been able to surprise and Russia... likewise surprises, in the opposite direction.
Those Prigozhin comments... oof!
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 12, 2023, 11:12:47 PMThose Prigozhin comments... oof!
I don't think those could have aged any better.
Russian propagandist hit by car and killed - a car reportedly driven by Russian soldiers (https://imi.org.ua/en/news/russian-propagandist-gennadiy-dubovoy-dies-in-a-car-crash-in-occupied-donetsk-i55326)
Here's how I imagine it went down:
Russian Black Sea Fleet Remnants repair base in Sevastopol struck by Ukraine (https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/13/europe/crimea-missile-attack-ukraine-russia-intl/index.html)
QuoteTwo ships were struck, according to an unofficial Russian military blogger: a diesel-electric submarine "Rostov-on-Don" and the large landing ship "Minsk," which caught fire. Both vessels were undergoing repairs in dry dock.
QuoteWithout naming the ships, Russia's Defense Ministry said the two damaged vessels "will be fully restored and will continue their combat service as part of their fleets."
(https://i.imgur.com/a2NKDto.png)
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/j1IDG1EnwGJTcbt7jGVB5Q--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTQ2MztjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/ukrayinska_pravda_articles_451/c2baf0aaded8cf72c2dbb44e309a9369)
The landing ship Minsk is damaged beyond all possible repair (https://news.yahoo.com/photo-russias-minsk-landing-ship-123507850.html) and will either join the Moskva or be disassembled. Either way, it will not resume service. Previously, it was one of eight ships intended to invade and capture Odessa. Those plans, much like the ship, have been scuttled.
No word if the submarine will be underwater in the future intentionally or unintentionally.
And it almost goes without saying that the Crimean bridge is closed (due to beach party :P)
The day will not save them, and we own the night (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-using-advanced-leopard-tanks-as-nocturnal-predator-soldier-says-2023-9)
QuoteA Ukrainian tank loader said his brigade is using its new, modern Leopard 2A6 tanks like "nocturnal predators," taking advantage of their night vision to target Russia in low light.
Yurii, a tank loader with Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade, said in a video for Ukraine's military that "We mainly operate at night and at dawn."
QuoteHe said its night vision device gives visibility for up to 2.5 miles, "allowing us to effectively engage the enemy and achieve close to a 100% success rate."
(https://i.imgur.com/qeRTwcv.jpeg)
Yeah, that ship is toast. It likely wasn't doing well beforehand since its was undergoing repairs, and having most of its components tilted and set ablaze by a storm shadow probably didn't help.
Fun fact: built in Poland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha-class_landing_ship) between 1975 and 1991. Very unlikely to get a manufacturer refurbishment.
The wiki already lists the submarine in the past tense (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_submarine_B-237), but we'll see.
Superficial damage. A good body shop can put that back together in a week.
Sure, they'll just buff those scratches right out... 🤔
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8_jESfPLBc
I'm gonna wash that gray right outta my hair...
Somehow reminded me of this.
Hey, I actually remember that commercial!
Vlad is helping the ruble by keeping his hair short and saving on hair dye product expenses - unlike Rudy Giuliani.
Ugh, I hate trying to find the latest news through American media. "Russia says they shot down 10 drones" and "Russia says the attack was unsuccessful".
Look guys, Russia says a lot of things, and most of them aren't true. Simply repeating stuff that almost certainly isn't true ain't journalism.
Sometimes, it's not even prefaced with "Russia says" it's "10 drones shot down" as if it were fact. Express skepticism. Put up independent confirmation when it's available. At the very least, pair Russian claims with Ukrainian claims and note which one is closer to the truth. So sick of "impartiality" between fact and fiction. That's what got us Trump.
Ukraine launches another attack in Crimea, destroys a s-400 antiair system (https://kyivindependent.com/media-sbu-navy-destroy-russian-air-defenses-in-yevpatoriia-strike/)
In the first wave, Ukrainian drones damaged Russian radars and antennas to blind them to the second wave, consisting of two Neptune missiles, destroying the launchers.
I know that this is all "Ukraine says" but Ukraine said they damaged two Russian naval vessels yesterday and we got video of the attack and a pic of the aftermath. We know for a fact that both vessels were severely damaged, just like they said. Meanwhile, Russia initially denied everything then admitted they were damaged but lied and said that they were still functional. Ukraine told the truth and the evidence bears it out. Russia lied about whether or not the Ukrainian attack was successful, then lied about the extent of the damage. I expect this s-400 destruction to be similarly verified, confirming Ukrainian claims.
Ukraine damages two Russian patrol boats in southwestern part of Black Sea (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/14/stratcom-ukraine-damages-two-russian-patrol-ships-in-the-black-sea/)
No biggie, Russia can just tow them to the repair ba...oh nevermind. I hope they have a secondary site lined up.
Man, Ukraine's been on a ship-killing frenzy lately. It's like they made an alliance with Davy Jones or something.
The invaders say that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, yet there's a flurry of new activity desperately trying to build new trenches and other fortifications near the third line of defense and "deep rear" of Russian defensive lines. Curious.
The telegram channel went into specifics based on satellite images:
Quote🔺New trenches are being dug and defensive structures are being strengthened near the front line in Pologiv district
🔺They are occupying houses and setting up new equipment in villages near Tokmak, and in the city itself roadblocks have been set up and anti-tank hedgehogs have been placed
🔺New recreation centres on the Azov coast are being taken over, and in Berdyansk, a helicopter base has been set up at the airfield
🔺Ex- prisoners are brought in to repel Robotin and hold the front
Tokmak in particular seems to be a Custer's Last Stand sort of place for the Russians, based on how they've built their fortifications. If they wish to stay there forever, I'm sure the Ukrainians can oblige.
Kadyrov (Chechen puppet to Putin) reportedly in hospital in critical condition (https://www.thedailybeast.com/ramzan-kadyrov-chechen-leader-and-putin-ally-is-reportedly-in-critical-condition)
Couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy.
Dollars to donuts it's alcohol-related, likely exacerbated by obesity
My sushi didn't taste any differently! 🤔
Vlad, you're a suck fest
Please learn how to read a map
I'm glad I'm not you
There has been a lot of interesting news lately, so I'll recap in brief:
Ukraine liberates Andriivka (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-small-town-near-bakhmut-recaptured)
This is important because it further solidifies Ukrainian holdings south of Bakhmut. They've also had partial success in Klishchiivka, which is slightly closer to Bakhmut and is expected to be similarly liberated not long from now. Piece by piece, Ukraine is slipping from Russian grasp.
Additionally, Ukrainian forces report devastating losses on Russians in the area - the invaders "lost the head of their brigade intelligence and almost all of the infantry of the 72nd Brigade (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/newly_created_72nd_motor_rifle_brigade_of_russian_army_completely_wiped_out_in_eastern_ukraine-7954.html), along with officers and a significant amount of equipment." Basically wiped out. Those losses can't be easily replaced and further weaken Russia's hold on the eastern front.
Russia says that they have not signed any agreement with North Korea (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-did-not-sign-agreement-with-north-korea-moscow-claims/)
Given Moscow's relationship with the truth, it's safe to say that the opposite is true. In fact, the North Korean delegation likely overstayed their time precisely because talks were abundantly fruitful.
The EU has dropped the grain import ban on Ukraine (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-lifts-ban-on-ukrainian-grain-imports/) - in reaction, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia have announced their own grain bans. In contrast, Bulgaria - which borders Ukraine - has voted to lift its grain ban (https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/14/bulgaria-votes-to-lift-its-embargo-on-imports-of-grain-from-ukraine).
Russia "accidentally" bombs occupied city not far from the frontline (https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russia-drops-aerial-bomb-on-occupied-nova-kakhovka/). I would quip that they must've gotten lost on their way to Belgorod, but deaths of civilians are no laughing matter. And Russian incompetence and malice are becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish - though it hardly matters to the bereaved. I sincerely hope that Ukrainian civilians get a chance to educate the Russian troops responsible on how to properly strike a target as they sleep.
A massive and mysterious fire has broken out in St Petersburg (https://kyivindependent.com/massive-fire-breaks-out-in-st-petersburg/). Maybe an accident, maybe not...
On September 14th, a Ukrainian sea drone reportedly hit the Russian ship Samum (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sea-drone-damages-small-russian-missile-ship-kyiv-source-2023-09-15//), inflicting damage and causing it to list to its starboard side, requiring it to be towed to port for repairs
Moscow confirmed that a marine drone attacked the Samum missile ship (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_corvette_Samum), claiming (dubiously, imho) that the attack was repelled and the drone destroyed. When they say stuff like this, I wonder if they are technically telling the truth - such drones are indeed destroyed when they crash into an enemy ship and explode.
Just throwing out there, appreciate how on-top of this news you've been Hydra.
Quote from: Shiranu on September 16, 2023, 01:35:28 AMJust throwing out there, appreciate how on-top of this news you've been Hydra.
Thank you, but I feel like I'm just barely covering half of it and mostly just summarizing.
A lot of big stories fall through the cracks. A Ukrainian oligarch (part of a pro-Russian political party) was arrested and is scheduled to be tried for treason. That's big. I might cover that later.
I haven't even touched on the corruption scandals because so much of it is open to speculation and subjective opinion and I just I don't know enough to do it justice.
I just try to cover the big events to get a quick view of how things are going.
I try to avoid routine events (Sumy region shelled, civilians wounded) unless they're abnormally heinous. I also try to avoid covering non-concrete stuff like speeches unless they're big developments. A diplomat saying Slava Ukraine isn't news unless they're Israeli or Armenian or something.
I am just guessing, but will Putin have to admit strategy failure and declare general mobilization at some point if he wants to have any chance of winning this war? That might finally get the attention of his people, LOL. I know they have their fake elections soon. Maybe he will do it after that.
He has to do it sooner than later because if they keep draining weapons and ammo this option of raising a massive army will do little good in the distant future. I do wonder if they have been withholding some of the better equipment for a massive Soviet-style offensive next Summer.
Quote from: Cassia on September 16, 2023, 03:42:21 PMI am just guessing, but will Putin have to admit strategy failure and declare general mobilization at some point if he wants to have any chance of winning this war? That might finally get the attention of his people, LOL. I know they have their fake elections soon. Maybe he will do it after that.
He has to do it sooner than later because if they keep draining weapons and ammo this option of raising a massive army will do little good in the distant future. I do wonder if they have been withholding some of the better equipment for a massive Soviet-style offensive next Summer.
No, he's not going to mobilize 500,000 or whatever ludicrous number he plans to raise. Russia has more or less already committed its entire military as well as mobilized whatever PMCs and foreign fighters they can possibly entice, as well as trying very hard to mobilize foreign workers, which has got to be a new low.
Russian equipment and logistics is already bad and it won't get any better with a bigger host - that'd just exacerbate problems. Those sorts of announcements are just an attempt to demoralize and intimidate dumb people in western countries who naively think that Russia can just absorb skyhigh losses indefinitely and so Ukraine can't possibly win.
Instead, Russia is hoping and praying that they can hold on and inflict enough casualties to blunt the Ukrainian advance and make this a frozen conflict. It's not working and nothing is working and they're starting to get very worried and/or fatalistic about it, but committed to keep on keeping on regardless. The real shock will be losing Crimea and the Crimean bridge. That's when the realization that they've lost will likely hit them.
It has been confirmed that Sumum was hit (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-rumors-swirl-of-new-attacks-on-black-sea-fleet) (a photo of it being towed by two tugboats, its stern-starboard side is noticeably dipped further in the water than it should be). Here's a shocker - Russia was lying about it not being hit by a drone.
There's also a satellite photo, presumably of Admiral Makarov (the name is confusing - it's a cruiser, not a person) also being towed, presumably due to damage. Nothing has been announced, but rumors are swirling that it was hit, too. Best to cork the champagne until it's confirmed, though.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 16, 2023, 10:22:09 PMNo, he's not going to mobilize 500,000 or whatever ludicrous number he plans to raise. Russia has more or less already committed its entire military as well as mobilized whatever PMCs and foreign fighters they can possibly entice, as well as trying very hard to mobilize foreign workers, which has got to be a new low.
Russian equipment and logistics is already bad and it won't get any better with a bigger host - that'd just exacerbate problems. Those sorts of announcements are just an attempt to demoralize and intimidate dumb people in western countries who naively think that Russia can just absorb skyhigh losses indefinitely and so Ukraine can't possibly win.
Instead, Russia is hoping and praying that they can hold on and inflict enough casualties to blunt the Ukrainian advance and make this a frozen conflict. It's not working and nothing is working and they're starting to get very worried and/or fatalistic about it, but committed to keep on keeping on regardless. The real shock will be losing Crimea and the Crimean bridge. That's when the realization that they've lost will likely hit them.
The coalition forces the US had in action in the Iraq invasion totaled around 750k. With complete air dominance. Russia has around 420k in Ukraine. Sure, the Iraqi army was beaten badly, however the occupation did not go so well. I can't imagine any sort of Russian occupation going very well either. Don't they know that?
Quote from: Cassia on September 17, 2023, 08:12:35 AMI can't imagine any sort of Russian occupation going very well either. Don't they know that?
Unfortunately, they have a brutal but effective way of doing that. They massacre the civilian population through starvation and poor medical care. They deport many of the natives to Russia and bus in Russians to literally steal their homes and land. It's deeply screwed up and textbook genocide, but over time, it does actually work.
Kadyrov is apparently not in hospital (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/17/7420201/)
Joke's on me for chasing rumors and thinking there's anything to a story that started on Russian telegram.
Klishchiivka has officially been liberated (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-liberates-village-of-klishchiivka-in-donetsk-oblast/)
It only had a small Russian presence yesterday, so it makes sense that it has been liberated so soon after nearby Andriivka.
This puts increasing pressure on Russian forces in Bakhmut, considering they're gradually becoming encircled and cut off from supplies.
Dance off, bro: Ukrainian forces near Bakhmut distracted elite Russian forces and kept them away from the southern front (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-operations-bakhmut-have-kept-russian-reserves-away-south)
QuoteUkrainian forces began counteroffensive operations against Bakhmut almost immediately following Wagner's withdrawal, causing the Russians to maintain VDV forces already there and to deploy additional VDV reinforcements to Bakhmut.
QuoteUkraine's continued counteroffensive actions in Bakhmut since June 2023 have fixed elements of two of Russia's four VDV divisions and three of the VDV's four separate brigades, dramatically reducing the VDV's ability to redeploy more forces laterally to reinforce the southern front.
QuoteUkraine's defensive and counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area since summer 2022 are an operationally sound undertaking that has fixed a large amount of Russian combat power that would otherwise have been available to reinforce Russian defenses in southern Ukraine.
This allowed Ukrainian forces to make significant gains in the south, which resulted in Russia panic-deploying some VDV to the south arguably too late to do much good (and weary because these guys get tossed around from hotspot to hotspot like hot potatoes, worn out and worn down) then losing territory near Bakhmut anyway (so what was even the point of keeping the VDV there) now they have the dilemma of deploying reinforcements between the south and east with both desperately needing help and Russia not having enough good troops or shells to go around. No matter what they do, it's a mistake that the Ukrainians can capitalize on - annihilating any poorly-reinforced positions and continuing to gain ground.
Also, Russia made a tactical mistake (https://www.businessinsider.com/tactical-mistake-russia-ukraine-war-defensive-lines-2023-9) in over-investing on its first line of defense at the expense of the other two lines (unforced error)
Russia redeploys at least 5 VDV units to southern front (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-thousands-of-russian-airborne-troops-redeployed-to-robotyne-as-infantry/)
On paper, this seems very bad, because on paper, that's something like 10,000 paratroopers with elite training and excellent gear. The reality is likely much, much less threatening - likely less than half strength and also likely a bunch of franken-units (a mix of paratroopers and other infantry). Definitely a bit of a hurdle for Ukraine and will likely slow progress on the southern front somewhat, but Ukraine has been laying out Russian paratroopers this whole time, it's why they're relatively rare.
Also, using paratroopers trained for highly mobile strikes and putting them in a line infantry role makes them much less effective. Another blunder.
I was watching some video of a UK suicide drone hit a Russian truck and all the guys on the back were shooting at the drone as it blew them up. They should have jumped off instead. All you need for a soldier to take out a drone is a big shotgun.
We had an abandoned orange grove near our house and my father would throw oranges and my brother and cousins would almost never miss with a 12 gauge. You can't really easily shoot a bird with a rifle unless it's sitting in a tree. I hope the US military is working on an anti-drone weapon for our soldiers.
I know we have all these high-tech electronic warfare guns that seem to have a 50/50 chance of working or not; sometimes dumb metal is a perfectly acceptable solution I would think. The drones probably are pushing the maximum effective range, but still would likely be more likely to hit than a rifle shot by an untrained kid.
I'm now curious how a shotgun (or some similar portable anti-drone gun using "simple" tech) could possibly be used.
Quote from: Shiranu on September 18, 2023, 04:34:04 PMI'm now curious how a shotgun (or some similar portable anti-drone gun using "simple" tech) could possibly be used.
There are net-guns said to be effective against drones, though I suppose that depends on how good a shot you are and how small the drone is and how fast the drone is.
Most drone footage shows them as little dots in the sky - basically impossible to hit with a normal rifle - or up close and personal with very little opportunity to react. It'd be even trickier while you're in a moving vehicle.
So I doubt small arms would be very useful.
That Rheinmetall anti-drone AA gun fires ludicrously fast and basically fires flak, so it downs drones by filling a part of the sky with fast-moving flechettes in the blink of an eye. No one, not even a squad, can do that with small arms.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 18, 2023, 05:31:16 PMThere are net-guns said to be effective against drones, though I suppose that depends on how good a shot you are and how small the drone is and how fast the drone is.
Most drone footage shows them as little dots in the sky - basically impossible to hit with a normal rifle - or up close and personal with very little opportunity to react. It'd be even trickier while you're in a moving vehicle.
So I doubt small arms would be very useful.
That Rheinmetall anti-drone AA gun fires ludicrously fast and basically fires flak, so it downs drones by filling a part of the sky with fast-moving flechettes in the blink of an eye. No one, not even a squad, can do that with small arms.
That thing is wicked. I recall hearing somewhere that airports use net guns to trap errant drones.
I've seen where a defense company has a hand-launched drone that "lands" into a net. Having flown Radio-Controlled planes in my past, it can be much better than some of the crashes I made.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 18, 2023, 05:31:16 PMThere are net-guns said to be effective against drones, though I suppose that depends on how good a shot you are and how small the drone is and how fast the drone is.
Most drone footage shows them as little dots in the sky - basically impossible to hit with a normal rifle - or up close and personal with very little opportunity to react. It'd be even trickier while you're in a moving vehicle.
So I doubt small arms would be very useful.
That Rheinmetall anti-drone AA gun fires ludicrously fast and basically fires flak, so it downs drones by filling a part of the sky with fast-moving flechettes in the blink of an eye. No one, not even a squad, can do that with small arms.
Maybe some form of miniature two-man (if possible, one man) FLAK cannon? Rather than larger pellets like the gauges measure, a reinforced assembly that can withstand a higher load of gunpowder and perhaps a slightly longer barrel.
Or some sort of delayed release of the pellets, though I'm guessing that exists and/or is too expensive.
Something tells me people a lot smarter than me have already considered this :P... but then again, the Europeans didn't understand the value of shotguns until WW1 when a bunch of redneck hicks from that foreign backwater of America brought them to a trench fight...
Photos of Russian sub reveal grave damage (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-sub-battered-ukraine-missile-attack-brutal-damage-naval-expert-2023-9)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6TbbhCWwAAWyy_?format=jpg&name=360x360)
Destroyed. There is a 0% chance that thing will ever see action again. If it tries, it'll either visit the Moskva or the Titanic.
It blows my mind that a country with no navy to speak of (except for some cutters patrolling the Dnieper river, but that's not really a navy) managed to down a friggin' sub. That's gotta be a first. It's also the first time in the world that a sub has ever been downed by cruise missile.
First cargo ships dock in Ukraine to supply grain to the world (https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/17/first-cargo-ships-dock-in-ukrainian-port-after-russia-exits-grain-deal)
Ukraine's efforts to scare away the Russian ships are bearing fruit. They commanded the sea last year and now cower in its furthest reaches this year.
Previously, five ships traveled down the humanitarian corridor from Ukraine. Now, two more are traveling towards Ukraine. Trade will resume.
Quote from: Shiranu on September 18, 2023, 10:44:49 PMMaybe some form of miniature two-man (if possible, one man) FLAK cannon? Rather than larger pellets like the gauges measure, a reinforced assembly that can withstand a higher load of gunpowder and perhaps a slightly longer barrel.
Or some sort of delayed release of the pellets, though I'm guessing that exists and/or is too expensive.
Something tells me people a lot smarter than me have already considered this :P... but then again, the Europeans didn't understand the value of shotguns until WW1 when a bunch of redneck hicks from that foreign backwater of America brought them to a trench fight...
So time to bring back the punt gun?
(https://aws.boone-crockett.org/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/puntgun_header.jpg)
I want 12 ducks and I want them now. Anyone see my earplugs? It looks like a fake, scale wise but
something like this could work on a suicide drone on a pinch, but Igor it's your turn to carry it again, BLYAT. Only a Russian could figure out how to shoot themselves with this thing. I saw a report that some guys in a cafe blew themselves up with hand grenades while arguing a few days ago....after going back to Russia. All those pissed-off combat vets are gonna cause havoc for years and you can't blame them, really.
(https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/hmt-forum/massive_winchester_shotgun.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/lLjumGvl.jpeg)
Silencing the artillery. Also, infantry losses have been consistently in the 500s-600s for a few days now.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on September 19, 2023, 07:42:36 AMSo time to bring back the punt gun?
(https://aws.boone-crockett.org/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/puntgun_header.jpg)
Good lord, that looks unbelievably impractical and unbelievably amazing. Gotta see if I can find any video of it firing now.
Perhaps something along that lines, though it would somehow have to be a bit more portable... cant see that being convenient in the trenches, though perhaps as part of a defense fortification it could have some solid use if hidden well enough.
War was so much easier when we kept it simple with swords and spears... so less bloody, as well...
Meet Tanya Adams: Saboteurs explode Russian planes and a combat helicopter (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/saboteurs-explode-russian-planes-and-a-combat-helicopter/)
QuoteThe saboteurs planted explosives and blew up aircraft and a combat helicopter at the Russian Chkalovsky Air Base in the Moscow region.
QuoteUnidentified persons planted explosives at the airfield and blew up An-148 and Il-20 aircraft (both belonging to the 354th Special Forces Aviation Regiment), as well as a Mi-28N helicopter, which had previously been actively involved in shooting down loitering munitions over the Moscow region.
Moscow region! Now that is some deep work!
And this happened long after Russia reportedly stepped up its airfield security after a previous incident:
There's no way this could possibly happen without some combination of extremely skilled saboteurs (inside job?) and/or gross incompetence on the part of Russian airbase security.
Antonov An-148 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-148)
Il-20 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-20M)
Mi-28N helicopter (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mil_Mi-28)
I saw this in the New York Times today and I thought it was kind of funny:
QuoteSpeaking before the Security Council, the Russian foreign minister suggested that the U.S. could "command" Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow.
Russia snorts too much of its own propaganda and has a difficult time distinguishing reality from the Kremlin's little world. The US doesn't own Kyiv. We simply have a lot of shared interests and shared adversaries.
Also, the fact that Russia is desperate for Kyiv to throw in the towel reveals their own weak bargaining position. If I were them, I'd give generous terms now because they're in the process of losing almost all their bargaining chips, making future negotiations even more difficult. Honestly, they should've cut a deal for a withdrawal and ceasefire months ago.
Another write-up of the airfield sabotage attack near Moscow (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/20/7420615/)
QuoteThe incident caused major hysteria in the top military command: government planes, the so-called 'judgement day planes' and special aircraft (reconnaissance aircraft) are stationed at this airbase."
I'd be apoplectic too if two B-52s and a Blackhawk went kablooie at Andrews Air Force Base and we didn't even know who did it.
US to send "small number" of ATACMS to Ukraine (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876)
After waiting with anticipation for months and recently giving yet another no, it seems like Biden is finally going to come through, though it may not actually be delivered anytime soon.
ATACMS would be a gamechanger and almost certainly be used to destroy the Kerch bridge as well as several military bases and ammo depots otherwise out of reach. Huge difference on a strategic level.
Russian tank runs into Russian minefield, soldiers disembark into trench then Russian artillery fires into the trench (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-tos-1a-solntsepyok-opened-fire-on-russian-infantry/)
The Ukrainians there must be watching in awe, wondering if they should intervene LOL
190 freedom units = 300km (basically everywhere in Ukraine and a fair bit of Russia and Belarus)
(https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/d244e00d-5262-4b35-acbf-89aa9a72562d-ATACMS-_700px.jpg)
(apologies that the legend is borked, but you get the drift)
I'm sure you've all heard by now that the Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol (https://kyivindependent.com/update-9-people-killed-16-injured-in-ukrainian-attack-against-russias-black-sea-fleet-headquarters/) was hit by Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
(https://preview.redd.it/ago1fx78lupb1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=6f1a184f35d89ef39ab62e1d6e9d549fb647f246)
There was some pretty crazy footage of the second cruise missile making a direct hit and sending large chunks of the structure flying outwards. That's not the kind of thing you can walk away from.
The strike allegedly killed 9 Russian officers and wounded 16 more, some grievously. It also might have killed the admiral in charge of the Black Sea Fleet Remnants, which is a hell of a catch, if true. Biggest Black Sea naval death since Andrei Paliy (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Paliy) early into the war.
Interestingly, it seems that some of the photos of the smoking ruin of that building also include pieces of paper reading "Crimea is Ukraine" in Ukrainian. Quite the statement from behind enemy lines. I hope they do not remain in enemy hands for much longer.
The Ukrainians just released footage of a failed Russian assault near Novoyehorivka a few days ago.
The footage is especially brutal and graphic and shows quite clearly that the Ukrainians are extremely proficient with drones and don't mess around.
It also puts to rest our little discussion about whether or not a soldier with a shotgun can realistically down a drone. Nope. And attempting a Rambo-style defense will absolutely get you killed.
How to survive a drone attack:
1) Don't be there
2) Surrender immediately, if not before
Russia just can't catch a break:
Sevastopol is under attack again.
A Russian base came under attack (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/video-emerges-of-the-attack-on-the-base-of-russian-peacekeepers-in-nagorno-karabakh/) in Nago...that disputed territory near Azerbaijan. Apparently, by Azerbaijan forces. This happened a few days ago, but the footage was only just recently posted online.
And last but not least, an Il-76 military transport plane possibly linked to Wagner crashed in Mali (https://airspace-africa.com/2023/09/23/ilyushin-il-76-cargo-plane-possibly-tied-to-wagner-group-crashes-in-mali/) (enroute from Belarus, destination Istanbul)
If I had to wager a guess, the plane was named "Loose Ends" in Russian.
Three more bulk carriers are headed towards Ukrainian ports to deliver goods to China, Egypt, and Spain.
Russian military strongholds in Kursk (Russia) largely abandoned (https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russian-strongholds-in-kursk-oblast-deserted/)
Quotethe Russian strongholds have been abandoned because the majority of personnel have been transferred to front-line positions in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts.
This lines up with only around a fifth of the normal Russian soldiers near Norway (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-forces-near-norway-are-20-fewer-than-before-ukraine-war-norways-armed-2023-09-16/) and Russian troops being pulled from the border with China and its border with Belarus.
Also, Russian military hardware is being pulled from near Japan and pretty much everywhere else, presumably to be sent to Ukraine.
Russia is all in on Ukraine and committed virtually everything to that war. Everything else is a distant second.
Russian propagandist (therefore more or less the words of Putin):
Quote- We will reclaim the lands and peoples living on those lands, roughly as of 1917. That's when the Russian Empire, destabilized after the Bolshevik revolution and taking a different path of development, lost many of its subjects. I'm not just talking about the lands themselves, that goes without saying. I understand that this includes Warsaw, Helsinki, Revel, Liepaja, and of course, the entire Baltic region. These are all our lands, and our people live there. What has been turned into a herd of mindless, trembling creatures, we must rectify. And we will rectify it through the power of Russian weaponry. In this case, I have no faith in diplomacy whatsoever. I believe that we can only reclaim it through the force of Russian arms. Reclaim our people, our subjects, for the Russian Empire back then, and now, the Russian Federation. So that the whole world doesn't turn into Sodom and Gomorrah, which is what's happening in Europe right now.
Let's decode.
* Putin lays claim to all territory that the Russian Empire of 1917 once held and considers it "Russian" regardless of who's living there or what they want. Only Putin's desires are considered.
* Irredentism - the desire to reclaim lands - in this case, purely through conquest.
* dehumanizing these people and yet a fervent desire to have them as subjects to bolster Russia. Note that Russia has been having demographic problems (for some strange reason, people don't want to live there) and its invasion of Ukraine has only made this worse. Putin wants more subjects to counteract this.
* An infantile viewing of the Western world as sinful and deviant and Moscow as righteous, no doubt trying to appeal to Russian Orthodox sensibilities (this charge was and is used on Ukraine often, during and before the war - a keenly aware person would recognize that as an attempt to justify aggression and thus see it as a precursor of invasion)
There you have it, folks. A warmonger who has no interest in diplomacy, but will take everything by force and thus has to be stopped by force.
'The perfect target': Russia cultivated Trump as asset for 40 years – ex-KGB spy
The KGB 'played the game as if they were immensely impressed by his personality', Yuri Shvets, a key source for a new book, tells the Guardian
Fri 29 Jan 2021
Shvets, a KGB major, had a cover job as a correspondent in Washington for the Russian news agency Tass during the 1980s. He moved to the US permanently in 1993 and gained American citizenship. He works as a corporate security investigator and was a partner of Alexander Litvinenko, who was assassinated in London in 2006.
Unger describes how Trump first appeared on the Russians' radar in 1977 when he married his first wife, Ivana Zelnickova, a Czech model. Trump became the target of a spying operation overseen by Czechoslovakia's intelligence service in cooperation with the KGB.
Three years later Trump opened his first big property development, the Grand Hyatt New York hotel near Grand Central station. Trump bought 200 television sets for the hotel from Semyon Kislin, a Soviet émigré who co-owned Joy-Lud electronics on Fifth Avenue.
According to Shvets, Joy-Lud was controlled by the KGB and Kislin worked as a so-called "spotter agent" who identified Trump, a young businessman on the rise, as a potential asset. Kislin denies that he had a relationship with the KGB.
Then, in 1987, Trump and Ivana visited Moscow and St Petersburg for the first time. Shvets said he was fed KGB talking points and flattered by KGB operatives who floated the idea that he should go into politics.
The ex-major recalled: "For the KGB, it was a charm offensive. They had collected a lot of information on his personality so they knew who he was personally. The feeling was that he was extremely vulnerable intellectually, and psychologically, and he was prone to flattery.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/29/trump-russia-asset-claims-former-kgb-spy-new-book
QuotePope Francis called for "not playing games" with weapons supplies to Ukraine.
"We should not play games with the martyrdom of this people. We must help them resolve their problems... Right now, I see that some countries are stepping back, unwilling to provide weapons to Ukraine. A process is beginning in which undoubtedly the Ukrainian people will be martyred, and this is not beautiful," he said.
Source (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-says-countries-should-not-play-games-with-ukraine-arms-aid-2023-09-23/)
100% agree.
Freighter successfully docks in Turkey carrying grain from Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/second-grain-freighter-taking-experimental-black-sea-route-arrives-in-turkey/)
Saboteurs strike Russian bases (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-saboteurs-hit-military-targets-in-russian-moscow-kaluga-regions/)
QuoteA tanker truck was allegedly destroyed at a military base in the Naro-Fominsky district of Moscow Oblast, while four vehicles with trailers were destroyed at another base in the city of Kaluga
Do the Russians just not have security at their bases anymore? Cause I read stuff like this frequently and I can't help but wonder at how this stuff is going undetected on the regular.
So apparently, Putin's mad dream of a restoration of the Russian empire has been something of an open secret throughout the years, with various historians and people in the know ringing the alarm bells but it never made front page because it wasn't as important as celebrity misadventures and political name-calling and royal family drama.
(https://i.imgur.com/Z9nzIHn.jpg)
That's a LOT of countries potentially on the chopping block (thankfully, the Ukrainians more or less stopped that plan dead in its tracks, but I shudder to think what would happen next if Russia had succeeded)
There was a picture a many years back of the Polish defense minister scowling and wary while the other Western defense ministers are laid back and calm. The impression was that the Polish defense minister was either a curmudgeon or paranoid. I'd like to issue a formal apology on behalf of my young, naive self. Wary was and is a perfectly acceptable attitude when faced with such a hostile neighbor.
I think that map qualifies as propaganda.
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on September 24, 2023, 09:18:11 PMI think that map qualifies as propaganda.
I could have used a much more "neutral" map, but I as I have said before, I'm not neutral when it comes to whether or not Ukraine retains its sovereignty.
Putin does in fact think in terms of empire, and his own words bear that out. He has specifically called Ukrainian lands "stolen" from Russia and has explicitly sought to redraw the world map more to his liking. It is not unreasonable to lay out the implications of this stance in explicit terms.
Confirmed: Russian Black Sea Fleet Remnants Commander killed in Ukrainian missile strike (https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-black-sea-fleet-commander-33-other-officers-killed-in-sevastopol-strike/)
Along with 33 other officers. 105 wounded, many seriously.
Russian missile strike on Odessa damages grain storage, port infrastructure, and destroys abandoned hotel (https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-strikes-in-ukraine-s-city-of-odessa-damage-port-grain-silo-and-an-abandoned-hotel-1.6576019)
The missile barrage took a circuitous route through Ukrainian airspace to avoid as much air defense as possible, and even then, most were shot down. However, some got through and did significant damage. This is part of an ongoing campaign targetting Ukrainian grain and ports in an attempt to disallow any grain shipments after Russian unilaterally terminated the grain deal, attempting to cause mass starvation to put political pressure on Ukraine to accept a truce where Ukraine voluntarily gives up some of its own land in exchange for peace or the resumption of the grain deal with concessions to Russia that would circumvent sanctions. As you can see, they are prepared to kill civilians to achieve these goals.
Russian telegram channels are strangely enthusiastic about the destruction of the abandoned hotel. It was a big and impressive-looking structure and its destruction makes for an impressive-looking photo.
Russians claim - without evidence - that Ukrainian officers were there and it is revenge for the Sevastopol attack. Apparently, the psychological dynamic is that after Russia suffers a devastating loss, so Russians must revenge themselves on some target (usually civilian) and tell themselves that it was of equivalent value.
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 24, 2023, 08:09:27 PMSo apparently, Putin's mad dream of a restoration of the Russian empire has been something of an open secret throughout the years, with various historians and people in the know ringing the alarm bells but it never made front page because it wasn't as important as celebrity misadventures and political name-calling and royal family drama.
Putin has been all over the place already....not to mention interference in US elections. Nobody did shit when he just rolled into Georgia, Chechnya or Crimea, each time declaring no Russian troops were involved. Right. Fucker played that Trump idiot so easily and Putin's old-man-balls grew 2 sizes too large for his brain. He is anti-West as it gets so no wonder the MAGA traitors love him.
Georgian Civil War
South Ossetian War
War in Abkhazia
Transnistria War
East Prigorodny Conflict
Tajikistani Civil War
First Chechen War
War of Dagestan
Second Chechen War
Russo-Georgian War
Insurgency in the North Caucasus
Russo-Ukrainian War
Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War
Central African Republic Civil War
Mali War
Quote from: Hydra009 on September 24, 2023, 09:55:10 PMI could have used a much more "neutral" map, but I as I have said before, I'm not neutral when it comes to whether or not Ukraine retains its sovereignty.
Putin does in fact think in terms of empire, and his own words bear that out. He has specifically called Ukrainian lands "stolen" from Russia and has explicitly sought to redraw the world map more to his liking. It is not unreasonable to lay out the implications of this stance in explicit terms.
Less exaggeration makes a stronger case.
Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on September 25, 2023, 09:17:22 PMLess exaggeration makes a stronger case.
That not "exaggeration", though. That's just Putin's own words, made very clear through one of his propagandists: "We will reclaim the lands and peoples living on those lands, roughly as of 1917" (1917 was the end of the Russian Empire).
The guy compares himself to Peter the Great, claims Ukrainian lands were "stolen", and actively denies the statehood of the country he's currently invading. To say that he has imperial dreams is just a basic observation of anyone paying even a small degree of attention.
UN investigator: Russian state media may be guilty of "inciting genocide" in Ukraine (https://businessukraine.ua/un-investigator-russian-state-media-may-be-guilty-of-inciting-genocide-in-ukraine/)
QuoteRussian officials and regime propagandists face widespread accusations of inciting genocide against Ukrainians. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has set the tone, frequently stating that Ukrainians are actually Russians ("one people") and repeatedly accusing Ukraine of being an illegitimate "anti-Russia." In one of his most recent outbursts, Putin attacked the "anti-human essence" of the modern Ukrainian state.
Meanwhile, genocidal anti-Ukrainian rhetoric has become an everyday feature of Russia's carefully choreographed and tightly censored state media. Presenters and pundits routinely dehumanize Ukrainians and question Ukraine's right to exist while portraying the country as an artificial state and an existential threat to Russia. Critics say this poisonous propaganda has fueled a litany of war crimes committed by the invading Russian army inside Ukraine, with Russian troops accused of engaging in mass executions, widespread torture, and forced deportations. In areas under Russian occupation, all traces of Ukrainian national identity are being systematically erased.
I see that the US will soon have a new stealth aircraft - the B-21 Raider. I hope we never have to use it.
Russian Forces Hijack Ukrainian Drone, Land It, Inspect it, Get Blown Up (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21978)
QuoteThe leadership of the regiment based there as well as members of the FSB then decided to investigate their new "trophy," the source said.
Their excitement was short-lived, with the drone blowing up as they were photographing and inspecting it.
According to the source, those killed or wounded during the explosion included the commander of the 14th aviation regiment, one of his deputies, a group of aviator officers, a representative of FSB military counterintelligence, and airport personnel.
(https://i.imgur.com/rMQnt6Ml.jpeg)
New Ukrainian drone strikes Russian tanks and artillery (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22006)
Not much is known about the drone so far, but we do know that it can operate at night, can drop multiple munitions strong enough to brew up a buttoned-down tank, and the Russians so far appear unable to detect it.
The Ukrainians say they destroyed $7 million worth of Russian equipment overnight.
Russia seeks to rejoin human rights council (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66919358)
QuoteErik Mose, chair of the commission, said there was continuing evidence of war crimes including torture, rape and attacks on civilians.
A separate report two weeks ago by the UN's special rapporteur for Russia, Mariana Katzarova said the human rights situation in Russia had also "significantly deteriorated", with critics of the invasion subjected to arbitrary arrest, torture and ill treatment.
QuoteRussia promises to find "adequate solutions for human rights issues" and seeks to stop the council becoming an "instrument which serves political wills of one group of countries", understood to be a reference to the West.
Fox seeks election as chicken coop guard.
(https://i.imgur.com/YTmloxT.jpeg)
Russian telegram is absolutely hilarious sometimes.
I saw that Russia has deployed inflatable tanks. Do you reckon they're "suitable for climate of Ukraine "? 🤔
Quote from: Unbeliever on September 26, 2023, 08:40:12 PMI saw that Russia has deployed inflatable tanks.
They do! And to the best of my knowledge, those are noted and ignored (though it'd be funny if Ukraine dropped a fake bomb on them)
Due to heavy use of kamikaze drones by both sides, both sides regularly use decoys. But imho, the decoys the Ukrainians use are more effective because they get better intel - intel provided to them by certain countries that shall go namel...USA, through their comparatively better access to spy satellites (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-satellite-imagery-sevastopol-strike-crimea-submarine-1828525) and with better resolution to boot, and they're much more likely to have better optics in their equipment. So the Ukrainians can suss out a sus tank more reliably.
The Russians are mostly in the unenviable position of having to make snap decisions with very little to go on and not great equipment. So yeah, you accidentally bomb a wooden HIMARS or ten. With the culture of lying over there, Private Conscriptovich might even land a promotion through an easy victory over what high command may or may not know were actually decoys. Is good gig, da?
Turkey willing to approve Sweden for NATO only if US sells F-16s to Turkey (https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkiye-urges-us-not-to-link-f-16-sale-to-swedens-nato-bid-186139)
QuoteOn a question, Erdoğan said he had brief pull-aside meeting with Biden, and the issue of Türkiye's demand to supply 40 new F-16 fighter jets was on their agenda.
"But, unfortunately, when we discuss the F-16s, our friends tie this issue with Sweden. This approach is saddening us. When we hear this, we have just one answer, 'If you have your Congress, we also have one: The Turkish parliament,'" Erdoğan said.
"It's not right to link the F-16s sale to Sweden," Erdoğan also said.
Edit - Whoops, wrong article! That one is from two weeks ago.
Ok, here's the right one:
Turkey willing to approve Sweden for NATO only if US sells F-16s to Turkey (https://kyivindependent.com/erdogan-turkey-to-approve-swedens-nato-bid-if-us-approves-f-16-sales-to-ankara/)
QuoteTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the Turkish parliament would ratify Sweden's accession to NATO if the U.S. approves the sale of its F-16 fighter jets to Ankara, Reuters reported on Sept. 26.
Russia building train tracks in occupied territory is particularly worrisome, since that's the main way Russia moves its military and military supplies. An improvement in Russian logistics would relieve a lot of pressure on Russian troops near the frontlines. It's also evidence that they anticipate this war taking a long time - which is unusually perceptive - and that they anticipate holding off the Ukrainian advance for a long time - which is more... *ahem* "normal thinking" for them. Bold strategy cotton, indeed.
But I think it's yet another example of a too-little-too-late measure. They could've been laying track this whole time, especially during the relative lull last year on the frontlines, but now they're trying to do it with HIMARS in play, drones all over the places, and a veritable zoo of tanks on the move. Fat chance.
Ukrainian pilots start F-16 training in the US (https://www.flyingmag.com/ukrainian-air-force-pilots-begin-f-16-training/)
Freedom of Russia Legion announces another incursion into Russia (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/28/7421814/)
I'm not quite sure if Russia's border guards have been bolstered since the previous two incursions, but we shall see.
So, the blonde Latvian mezzo-soprano Elīna Garanča immediately cancelled all concerts in Russia when Russia invaded. The Russian soprano, Anna Netrebko would not condemn Putin and then sues the Met Opera for $360K for dropping her.
Axis of Evil: Russia invites Taliban for talks (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/09/29/russia-hosts-taliban-talks-as-it-seeks-regional-influence-a82611)
Belarus, Syria, Iran, North Korea, and now possibly also the Taliban - quite the rogues' gallery with Russia at its center. And with China as an unofficial member with a suspiciously high trade volume (https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/29/business/russia-china-trade-shipping-containers-intl-hnk/index.html). I note that consumer electronics trade from China soars while Russia experiences a military computer chip shortage. Curious...
If trade were resumed with Russia at some future point, how much wealth would wind up in North Korea's or the Taliban's coffers?
Sometimes, history rhymes: Putin has been ignoring his generals and directing the war himself (https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is-making-war-decisions-on-own-surprisingly-cautious-2023-9)
Quote"Putin [is] making key decisions largely on his own without substantial influence from the Russian General Staff," the analysts said in the report.
RAND said that was simply because Putin does not trust those around him — and so makes "little use of economic or military expertise" at his disposal.
Classic dictator trap
QuoteThe RAND report said that, even in his isolation, Putin has been less eager than it thought to confront NATO, even as it continues to support Ukraine.
But this does not mean that he will continue to do so in future, it cautioned.
"If Russian territorial, personnel, and materiel losses continue to mount without improvements on the battlefield, he will face a set of unpalatable choices, including negotiations from a position of weakness, more extensive and potentially destabilizing mobilizations, or more draconian attempts to ensure internal control," it said.
Some combination of all three seem likely in time, though none of those will give Moscow any sort of victory. Kyiv has refused give up its sovereign territory and remains highly unlikely to budge on this. Mobilizations are very unpopular in Russia and Putin has done pretty much everything he possibly can to shift war deaths to PMCs or foreigners in Russia somehow sucked into the war or ethnic minority Russians - not people living in Moscow or St Petersburg. But at some point, that becomes untenable and he has to either bite the bullet (so to speak) or relent. And draconian stuff is already a fact of life in Russia. Doubling down on that won't shift the frontline.
QuoteWhen he first launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin said that if other countries attempted to intervene they would face "consequences they have never seen,"
"Fire and fury" Seen that song and dance before. A big bark masking a weak bite.
QuoteDuring a speech in July, Putin said there was a "serious danger" of NATO being drawn further into the Ukraine war if members of the alliance kept supplying weapons — though as of September there had been no obvious new consequence for the West.
I read recently that Putin wants schoolgirls and beauty queens to join the war effort. But I don't know exactly what that means.
Putin declares holiday over illegal seizure of Ukrainian land, calls it "Reunification Day" (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-declares-holiday-commemorating-occupation-of-ukrainian-regions/)
Russian soldier defects to Ukraine, convinces 11 other Russian soldiers to join him (https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-soldier-working-with-ukraine-defects/)
He had been secretly working with Ukrainian intelligence since July. But when it appeared that his life was in danger, Ukrainian Special Forces launched an operation to evacuate him and anyone nearby who wanted to escape.
It isn't known if he's still in Ukraine or what his monetary reward was.
Russia reduces use of attack helicopters near frontline due to heavy losses (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-using-ka-52-helicopter-less-ukraine-got-good-at-destroying-isw-2023-9)
QuoteThe UK's military intelligence said the helicopters were "one of the single most influential Russian weapon systems" on the front lines.
QuoteHe said while Russia had about 100 of the helicopters at the start of the war, the number could have dwindled as low as 25.
The Defense Express reported in August that Swedish shoulder-mounted missile launchers had proven effective in attacking the helicopters.
Unfortunately, Ukraine can't properly capitalize on this because Russia compensates with artillery and drones:
QuoteThe ISW said Ukraine's improved ability against the Ka-52 had not seriously undermined Russian defenses.
"Russian forces appear to have increased their use of strike drones against advancing Ukrainian forces, and Russian artillery units continue to play a significant role in repelling Ukrainian assaults," said the ISW.
Therefore, silencing those guns is of critical importance.
Russia reportedly shot down its own plane near Tokmak (https://defence-blog.com/russia-shoots-down-its-own-su-35-fighter-jet/)
Do you guys have any idea how hard it is to google "Russia shot down its own plane" and get the right news article?? This isn't even the first time they've shot down their own su-35, so being specific barely helps. At this point, you could probably paint NATO/OTAN on the damn things and you'd be more likely to survive because at least they'd think twice before blasting one of those. Hell, you'd be safer trying to fly a Cessna to the Kremlin than to get in any sort of Russian plane, Wagner-affiliated or not.
🤣
Edit- he's entitled to his opinions of course, but if I may:
1) the firing of Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov did happen near about the same time Zelenskyy visited the US, but that was in the works for quite a few weeks beforehand and there likely is no causal link
2) Zelenskyy's official reason for the firing was not corruption-related, this is inferred from various corruption scandals brewing at roughly the same time
3) While yes, there is corruption in Ukraine and it's an ongoing concern, please note that allegations of corruption are easy to make, but they are much harder to substantiate. If we make assumptions and let our imaginations carry us away, we will lose perspective. Instead, we should stick to the facts. That said, more oversight would undoubtedly be a good thing to help alleviate these concerns.
4) To the best of my knowledge, the US has not made any statements regarding withdrawing aid or corruption being the reason Ukrainian aid has apparently stalled during the partial shutdown. That said, if there were a major act of corruption regarding Ukrainian aid, it would undoubtedly change public opinion and therefore make the US gov less likely to provide further aid.
Three Russian soldiers dead as train hits Russian AA in occupied Ukraine (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-train-crash-donetsk-strela-10-missile-1831625)
Apparently, the vehicle lost control, fell off a bridge onto train tracks, then it was hit by a train, causing the train to derail and also caused damage to the tracks.
(https://i.imgur.io/W9UjhIQ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
Kirby: "Still No Indication" Of Any Kind Of Widespread Corruption Or Misuse Of Ukraine Military Aid (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/10/03/kirby_still_no_indication_of_any_kind_of_widespread_corruption_or_misuse_of_ukraine_military_aid.html)
He's 100% right that some military systems are delivered there and in use on the battlefield within days. I've personally seen videos of some stuff en route and videos of it in action within a week. Bradleys, if memory serves.
Russia may have accidentally leaked the locations of its secret bases (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-accidentally-doxes-own-spies-secret-bases-dossier-center-2023-10)
The document was a list of buildings that absolutely must continue to receive power even in the event of blackouts / power shortages. What sorts of buildings might those be? Your guess is as good as mine, but people in the know strongly suspect some of the addresses are linked to Russian Intelligence (FSB)
I wonder if Musk is afraid of getting killed by Putin for Starlink? Thus, the pro-Russia twitter show. Or maybe Musk IS just a complete arsehole.
Did Russia shoot down its most advanced fighter jet over Tokmak in late September?🤔
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 04, 2023, 12:56:53 PMDid Russia shoot down its most advanced fighter jet over Tokmak in late September?🤔
Yes (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shot-advanced-fighter-jet-tokmak-1831949)
And the aftermath shot is so absolutely brutal. Poor thing was basically dissembled like it was made out of legos or something lol.
(https://gagadget.com/media/cache/00/5a/005a70ce86ffd1dc1137928db4d27eb9.jpg)
Russia: "We have met the enemy, and he is us."
😎
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 04, 2023, 02:05:09 PMRussia: "We have met the enemy, and he is us."
😎
Walt Kelly's Pogo, ftw!
Well, that's appropriate, since my name is Walter! 🤣
Ukraine says it killed a bunch of Russian soldiers in a night strike in Crimea.
Well, Crimea river... 😭
There are new operations in progress along the southern frontline plus a somewhat unexpected one at a certain place.
It's unclear exactly how much progress is being made, but what I can say for certain is that Russian officers have begun to evacuate their families from Tokmak (https://news.yahoo.com/russians-tokmak-began-panic-families-065036628.html), a supposed "strongpoint" that would absotively halt the Ukrainian advance, much like Robotyne before it.
On Russian telegram, there was a surprisingly candid post floating the idea of abandoning Tokmak to concentrate forces at Melitopol and Berdiansk instead, which seems crazy to me because the main rail line runs right through Tokmak, so it's vital for supply lines. Plus, Berdiansk is a port city, and it's not exactly a good look to fight with your backs literally to the sea. By that point, Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine has already been bisected and the writing is already on the wall.
(https://i.imgur.com/fIPAOCD.jpg)
When I said before that both sides use FPV drones, that is technically true. But there is a huuggge gap between how often Ukraine and Russia uses them. In the current situation where most exchanges are at long range, with drones and artillery as the current stars of the show, Ukraine arguably has a slight advantage.
Russia bombs memorial dinner held at a cafe in Kharkiv region, massacres 50 civilians (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/5/7422803/)
Ukraine damages s-400 "Triumph" air defense system in Belgorod (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-hit-russia-treasured-s400-air-defense-own-soil-report-2023-10) (within Russian borders)
Freedom of Russia Legion reports results of overnight raid in Russia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/freedom-of-russia-legion-conducted-an-operation-on-the-territory-of-the-russian-federation/)
The Freedom of Russian Legion attacked at night with help from mortars and FPV drones, there was a skirmish between them and Pro-Putin forces, and both sides withdrew. They report 5 dead and 13 wounded enemies with no losses on their side.
Legion forces could theoretically repeat such an attack anywhere along the Ukraine-Russian border at any time.
TikTok Brigade: Intercepted call from Russian soldier says they're staging fake combat videos for propaganda purposes (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russian-soldier-intercepted-call-staged-combat-videos-look-better-2023-10)
This isn't a new thing (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-caught-red-handed-making-fake-video-of-ukrainian-attack-on-woman-and-child)
Though I wonder at the effectiveness of such propaganda, because making videos of "victories" doesn't mesh well with a frontline steadily shifting in Ukraine's favor.
Putin had a crazy press conference or speech or whatever, but the part that really blows me away is that it's just 30 lies a minute and said in the most brazen ways possible, barely even the pretense of believably.
Of course, he reiterated his lies about Ukraine, which we all know by heart now. But check out this one: the Wagner plane crash happened because they were doing cocaine and playing with hand grenades (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/world/europe/putin-prigozhin-death-plane-crash.html) Yeah, and Epstein hung himself because he thought the Cats movie should've won an Academy Award and he was bummed out that it didn't. Give me a break! The Wagner guys were real pieces of work, but they were trained soldiers. The odds of them playing with hand grenades while flying is basically nil. The odds of them being attacked by a vengeful dictator are much, much bigger.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 05, 2023, 11:34:35 PMPutin had a crazy press conference or speech or whatever, but the part that really blows me away is that it's just 30 lies a minute and said in the most brazen ways possible, barely even the pretense of believably.
Of course, he reiterated his lies about Ukraine, which we all know by heart now. But check out this one: the Wagner plane crash happened because they were doing cocaine and playing with hand grenades (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/world/europe/putin-prigozhin-death-plane-crash.html) Yeah, and Epstein hung himself because he thought the Cats movie should've won an Academy Award and he was bummed out that it didn't. Give me a break! The Wagner guys were real pieces of work, but they were trained soldiers. The odds of them playing with hand grenades while flying is basically nil. The odds of them being attacked by a vengeful dictator are much, much bigger.
Putin: "Odesa is certainly a Russian city, but a little bit Jewish".
Quote from: Cassia on October 06, 2023, 08:44:06 AMPutin: "Odesa is certainly a Russian city, but a little bit Jewish".
Yeah, the guy really puts his foot in his mouth when it comes to Jewish people. You can tell he has some very unsavory attitudes brewing under the surface.
He repeated his lie about the Ukrainians being Nazis but said that they have a jewish president to cover it up. Like millions of people are just pretending to like a jewish guy and to have fairly progressive views compared to the rest of Eastern Europe (https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FT_18.03.26_polandHolocaustLaws_map.png). Meanwhile, a prominent rabbi in Russia says it's not safe for Jews there.
Putin said to look at what "Israelis" are saying online (read: Russian bot farms cranking out condemnations of Ukrainians and trying to fool you about its source) which conveniently also seeks to drive a wedge between Ukrainians and actual Israelis.
Russia just shot down another of its own SU-35s within days of the last one they shot down! 🫡
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 06, 2023, 01:43:58 PMRussia just shot down another of its own SU-35s within days of the last one they shot down! 🫡
The Su-35's thrust-vectoring system and integrated flight- and propulsion-control systems allow the aircraft to attain "supermaneuverability", enabling it to perform post-stall manoeuvres at low speeds.I just saw a video about those jets. If it's not stealthy nor can acquire targets first, it better have supermaneuverability. The US fighters don't even prioritize this anymore. They kill you before you know they are out there. Dogfights are so 90s.
Wow, who knew that Russia has a "supreme shaman"? It's an elected post! 🤣
He says there won't be a nuclear war because of the war in Ukraine. What a relief! 🫣
(https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/yumPaYoccaGUrZzfrEd2GvE4pmE=/500x333/smart/filters:format(webp)/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-pmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/5SUMEYWRVRCUHI5JR3DZJJLDVY.jpg)
Russia shoots down its own plane...again (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/for-the-second-time-in-a-week-the-invaders-shot-down-their-own-su-35/)
Yes, it is also a Su-35.
No, it's not the exact same plane. The last one was near Tokmak, this one was near Mariupol.
This is what I mean about this stuff being ungoogleable.
And I know it's a faux pas to give advice to the enemy, but just give the AA guys the day off or something. Give them one of those children's tablets with Candy Crush on it or Masha and the Bear or something. Just take a breather for a while.
Also, I'm tempted to make a new pack of playing cards in honor of Russian air defense: instead of aces, it'll have AA.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 06, 2023, 01:43:58 PMRussia just shot down another of its own SU-35s within days of the last one they shot down!
Lol beat me to it. Two in two weeks!
(https://i.imgur.com/TIxAzWVl.jpg)
23 tanks! They've had some strong numbers lately, especially when it comes to artillery, which is often in the 30s.
Speaking of artillery destruction, Ukraine blew up a Russian "flamethrower" artillery piece with HIMARS (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/himars-destroys-the-russian-tos-1a-solntsepyok/)
You know what time it is? HIMARS o'clock!
(https://starecat.com/content/wp-content/uploads/putin-alarm-clock-showing-himars-instead-of-hour.jpg)
You likely heard about the terrible violence in Israel - surprise attacks initiated by Hamas that has killed many civilians.
Zelenskyy condemned the attacks (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraines-zelensky-on-horrible-hamas-attack-israels-right-to-self-defense-is-unquestionable/) as terrorism and affirmed Israel's right to self-defense as someone who is extremely familiar with the idea on a practical level.
Russian telegram is...decidely less sympathetic with the victims. I won't link or post what they have said, but suffice it to say that it wouldn't be out of place in Hitler's Germany. I want to say that Russia's new bedfellows in Iran and Afghanistan are pushing it down to that level, but I very much doubt that this was a recent development.
Authoritarians around the world have been emboldened to act however they want without regard for consequences and to show their true colors - open aggression is possible towards any even borderline western country, a country allied to a western country, or a historic adversary to a current Axis country.
I read that one of Putin's allies got blown up in his car.
Another one bites the dust.
🫡
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 07, 2023, 03:23:16 PMI read that one of Putin's allies got blown up in his car.
Another one bites the dust.
🫡
Yes (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/7/7423062/)
He said he was "building a new life" in occupied Ukraine. I suppose so, if reincarnation is true...
He's not kidding. The attacks on civilians was very reminiscent of Bucha, though done in much less systematic way. And some of the civilian captives were kidnapped while out to see a concert. All sorts of messed up.
I also hear that Russia has a nuclear powered missile that can strike the US.
I would say "Bring it on" but...nah. 😵
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 07, 2023, 10:14:30 PMI also hear that Russia has a nuclear powered missile that can strike the US.
I would say "Bring it on" but...nah. 😵
By the time you would use one of those 2nd strike nuclear powered missiles the world is over anyways. This proves that Putin believes they could survive a nuclear holocaust and keep fighting.
Just nuclear saber-rattling that he learned from Kim Jong-Un. I'm neither surprised nor intimidated.
2 Ukrainian citizens have died in Israel (https://kyivindependent.com/embassy-2-ukrainians-killed-in-israel/). Several Americans were reportedly also killed (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3237210/hundreds-dead-israel-hamas-war-lebanons-hezbollah-launches-attacks).
In Israel, they weathered another mass missile barrage, Israeli forces recaptured most of the border towns taken by Hamas militants, and entered the northern part of the Gaza strip. Hezbollah joined the fray. Israel has formally declared a state of war and initiated country-wide martial law, much like Ukraine did last year.
On some of the sites I've visit (they read a lot, so they tend to lean left) they've been dismayed by the international outpouring of support for Israel and seemingly carte blanche for retaliation, worrying about escalating violence, especially towards Gaza civilians who are innocent bystanders in this conflict. They've also noted that Israel is essentially an apartheid state which has unjustly kept territory it occupied in the 6 day war and built encroaching settlements to displace the locals. Some rare few have gone a little further - trying very hard to paint this is as if it were a defensive conflict on the part of Hamas or a natural, inevitable consequence of the impoverishment and repeated collective punishments inflicted by Israel.
I can agree with some of the criticisms of Israel - I'm particularly upset about the use of civilians as human shields, and obviously it's bad that territory is occupied and not given back (this applies to Russia as well). But this was in no way, shape, or form a defensive move by Hamas. Hamas chose to launch a brutal terrorist attack. They chose to shoot civilians in the streets. They literally descended on a music festival - what was supposed to be a happy, peaceful time for people to enjoy themselves - and chased after fleeing concert-goers, killing or kidnapping many of them. There's heartbreaking footage of a young woman kidnapped on a motorcycle begging for help to no avail. Or footage of a woman lying in pickup truck dying from grievous wounds. Or a little kid who can't be more than 5 or 6 begging for his mother as those around him mock and harass him. Who knows if that little kid is alive or dead right now. This is some sick, sick stuff and anyone who supports that in any way is no friend of mine, fellow leftist or not.
On Russian telegram, there was a little blurb congratulating Hamas for its "denazifying and demilitarizing" operation in Israel and I got so mad that I had to log off the internet for a while. I can't imagine what those who are grieving right now or worried about a missing loved one must be feeling.
If Trump gets another term, he will declare war on Ukraine and Mexico.
I saw somewhere online that a significant number of USians support the US making drone strikes on cartels in Mexico. Fucking stupid. Quit buying what they're selling and there will be no need.
Quote from: Cassia on October 08, 2023, 07:15:01 PMIf Trump gets another term, he will declare war on Ukraine and Mexico.
What? And give Canada a free pass? My apologies to Robert De Niro.
Russian ground forces just announced the capture of a Russian army commander in Bakhmut. His name hasn't been released, so we'll have to wait and see.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 09, 2023, 06:15:52 PMRussian ground forces just announced the capture of a Russian army commander in Bakhmut. His name hasn't been released, so we'll have to wait and see.
Yep. Commander of Alga battalion (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-announces-capture-russian-commander-bakhmut-1833244). He looked to be in bad health and bitterly complained of high losses on his side. Special operation going completely to plan.
The Ukrainians noted some Republicans being hesitant on military aid, purportedly because of low stocks, yet when Israel is attacked, those same people say to give Israel everything they need.
Presumably, the two nations want very different things, otherwise they have pointed out hypocrisy in the Republican party, which is like finding a cowpie on a farm - you know it's there, it's just a question of how much.
The White House is allegedly considering linking Israel military aid to Ukraine military aid (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/white-house-lawmakers-weigh-linking-ukraine-israel-aid-rcna119516), which would put a stop to such suspected double-dealing.
Getting real tired of having people who can't behave like adults - who couldn't be trusted to care for a housplant - decide the fates of millions of people in the country and millions upon millions outside the country.
Don-key Rump says he'll end the war in Ukraine within hours of taking office. But of course he gives absolutely no hint as to how he'll accomplish that.
We shall see if it is Ukraine who loses support because of Hamas. Israel is always a big political deal for the US and Western Europe. It would be typical US behavior, unfortunately.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 10, 2023, 02:06:51 PMDon-key Rump says he'll end the war in Ukraine within hours of talking office. But of course he gives absolutely no hint as to how he'll accomplish that.
And we all know just how he would end it.
(...Use your best internal Donald Trump voice...)
"We all want an end to this war because Russian aggression must be unignored and taxpayers are tired of this spending and did your hear about the whole Israeli thing over there in middle
China east? China, China, China. But on things that actually matter, let's just get back to more important things like permanent tax cuts for hedge fund managers and billionaires. And Jack Smith looks like a crack-head and every prosecutor and judge is trying to interfere in my campaign and illegitimate effort to overturn the constitution. I did nothing wrong! Thank you!"
Reporter: "But how will you actually end the war?"
"By ending it in 24 hours as I've already explained. See? This is why we can't trust the lame-stream media."
And his followers will eat this shit salad with ranch dressing.
I completely disagree. His cult would use ketchup from McDonalds.
I suppose Rump will have to have a "summit" with Putin and give him another blow job.
I guess he'd better hurry up, though since Putin is reported to be terminally ill. Apparently his death is immenant.
Can't happen soon enough for me.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 10, 2023, 08:24:17 PMI suppose Rump will have to have a "summit" with Putin and give him another blow job.
I summit that when that occifer pulled me over for driving drunken, I was druk, durken.., forget it.
Russia failed to secure a seat on the UN human rights council (https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142112)
It lost to Bulgaria and Albania, which secured the two seats available for Eastern Europe.
Russia's seat on the UN human rights council was suspended by a two-thirds vote in the UN in 2022 for obvious reasons.
Russia was apparently hoping that the international community has the memory of a goldfish. No such luck this time.
Russia: we don't care about western sanctions
Also Russia: (at the UN) omg these sanctions are so discriminatory! (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-foreign-ministry-files-complaint/) *crocodile tears and pouting*
QuoteThe ministry called unfair the ban placed by EU countries, as well as the U.S., U.K., and Canada on Russian airlines from operating in their airspace, the export of aviation parts and insurance for Russian airlines, and the sharing of meteorological information.
Imagine trying to tell another country how to use their own airspace 🤡
Also, the residents of Kharkiv and Kherson know exactly what Russian aviation is like. The world is better off without Russian aviation on the whole.
Belgium creates $1.8 billion usd fund for Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-creates-1-8-billion-fund-for-ukraine-from-taxing-frozen-russian-assets/) from interest on frozen Russian assets.
The Pope playing two hands as usual.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8J_JGpWQAA7TBZ?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8J_1PDXQAAQd5W?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8J_zSlWsAAC0mW?format=jpg&name=large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8KAXRIWsAMN2Kq?format=png&name=900x900)
Everyone knows that Patriarch Kirill is a criminal.
They can go fuck themselves/each other, afaiac. If the poop is that out of touch with reality, he ought to just keep his yap shut.
In defense of the Pope, his position is not as bad (https://apnews.com/article/pope-russia-ukraine-war-vatican-imperial-b82bfb9185f0fc8062c43927a2b058b0) as the headlines - especially TASS, Russian state media - made it out to be. Though obviously, receiving praise from Peskov is like being frenched by a black mamba - not ideal.
Whatever else he has said, Pope Francis has been steadfast about a few things:
* Russia is the aggressor in this war
* Russia's war against Ukraine is sinful
* The world should help Ukraine as much as possible.
Personally, I agree with these main points, so I'll let the foot-in-mouth stuff slide.
And yeah, there are pictures of the Pope with Krill, who is 100% a genocidal zealot and all around bad guy. Francis knows this (https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/04/europe/pope-francis-patriarch-kirill-ukraine-invasion-intl/index.html). There are also pictures of Obama with Putin, Zelenskyy with Trump, etc. You work in religion or politics long enough and you're bound to be elbow-to-elbow with some real pieces of crap. It's unfortunate, but it happens.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 11, 2023, 06:07:16 PMIn defense of the Pope, his position is not as bad (https://apnews.com/article/pope-russia-ukraine-war-vatican-imperial-b82bfb9185f0fc8062c43927a2b058b0) as the headlines - especially TASS, Russian state media - made it out to be. Though obviously, receiving praise from Peskov is like being frenched by a black mamba - not ideal.
Whatever else he has said, Pope Francis has been steadfast about a few things:
* Russia is the aggressor in this war
* Russia's war against Ukraine is sinful
* The world should help Ukraine as much as possible.
Personally, I agree with these main points, so I'll let the foot-in-mouth stuff slide.
And yeah, there are pictures of the Pope with Krill, who is 100% a genocidal zealot and all around bad guy. Francis knows this (https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/04/europe/pope-francis-patriarch-kirill-ukraine-invasion-intl/index.html). There are also pictures of Obama with Putin, Zelenskyy with Trump, etc. You work in religion or politics long enough and you're bound to be elbow-to-elbow with some real pieces of crap. It's unfortunate, but it happens.
The Catholic Church has a long history of poor assessments and associations, be it real 1930s Nazis or the Kremlin today. It's not the Pope's words that sends the message. It's what he does or doesn't do. I guess I expect more from a guy that claims he has god on speed dial. Case in point:
David Kertzer's 2022 book The Pope at War explores this policy of neutrality and impartiality and the consequence of Pope Pius XII's public silence on the mass killings of Jews. Kertzer's review of newly unsealed files revealed that Pope Pius XII worked hard not to offend Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini and feared that publicly opposing Hitler would turn off German Catholics. https://time.com/6270677/catholic-church-holocaust-documents/
(https://i.imgur.com/WLgdNHel.jpeg)
I'm pretty sure this is a correction from an earlier undercount. Either that or...I read that the Russians have launched some costly failed assaults recently...
Quote from: Cassia on October 11, 2023, 07:57:20 PMThe Catholic Church has a long history of poor assessments and associations, be it real 1930s Nazis or the Kremlin today. It's not the Pope's words that sends the message. It's what he does or doesn't do. I guess I expect more from a guy that claims he has god on speed dial. Case in point:
David Kertzer's 2022 book The Pope at War explores this policy of neutrality and impartiality and the consequence of Pope Pius XII's public silence on the mass killings of Jews. Kertzer's review of newly unsealed files revealed that Pope Pius XII worked hard not to offend Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini and feared that publicly opposing Hitler would turn off German Catholics.
https://time.com/6270677/catholic-church-holocaust-documents/
Flip side would be that the RCC as some sort of "real" moral authority for all those German Catholics opposing Hitler would have stopped the atrocities. Then again, the RCC has been crucifying Jews since you-know-when, even if it was fiction of the times. I didn't ask to be raised Catholic, and I think that if my mother (a staunch Catholic) was still alive, she'd be appalled as well. My wife doesn't like when I bring up the sins of the Catholic Church. I get her point- she thinks that she is a good person by following the teachings. In all fairness, she criticizes most religious people for their hypocrisy.
Quote from: Cassia on October 11, 2023, 07:57:20 PMThe Catholic Church has a long history of poor assessments and associations, be it real 1930s Nazis or the Kremlin today. It's not the Pope's words that sends the message. It's what he does or doesn't do. I guess I expect more from a guy that claims he has god on speed dial.
The Vatican absolutely does have a bad track record, even pretty recently with the whole shuffling-around-pedophile-priests thing. I'm just saying that the Pope is solidly pro-Ukraine, even if the messaging isn't always great.
And I just checked out the thing with Krill. It's some sort of ecumenical thing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Declaration_of_Pope_Francis_and_Patriarch_Kirill) - very tedious and yawn-inducing (though I do note their shared desire to "break the chains of militant atheism" lol). It's not some sort of Munich Agreement or anything like that.
JFC, they weren't kidding about the Russians suffering heavy losses near Avdiivka. Just say no to human wave attacks, kids!
Quote"A successful encirclement of Avdiivka – one of the most heavily fortified areas of the Donetsk Oblast front line – would very likely require more forces than Russia has currently dedicated to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City effort," it said in its latest assessment.
Source (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-latest-russia-avdiivka-bakhmut-b2427681.html)
Well, they definitely don't have the manpower now. What's with Putin and needlessly sacrificing his army on the battlefield today and then later having bad performance due to - among other things - lack of manpower. I'm not the brightest knife in the drawer, and even I can figure out that it's a good idea conserve your forces for when you really, really badly need them. Not that I'm complaining about steadily degraded Russian forces, but you'd think the top brass would be more sensible.
(https://i.imgur.com/JizO8Yzl.jpeg)
Jeez!! Avdiivka is taking much more of a toll on the Russians than I thought!
Honestly, it's a really good idea to call it quits at this point. These kinds of figures are just insane. They make the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan look tame in comparison.
Such a brutal war. I read somewhere that the actual current Russian death toll was around 200k and for UK around 80K or 2.5 to 1. I would think the coming winter may slow things down, but who knows.
UA, you mean.
It's been difficult to determine exact statistics, but the Ukrainian estimates generally aren't very far off from US and UK estimations and also jive with what has been independently verified. Russian figures...well, suffice it to say that there's definitely a culture of lying.
While on defense, Ukraine's ratio of kills to losses is generally near 3:1 or 4:1. In rare circumstances - like when Russia launches massed infantry assaults - it can briefly be even better than that. Afaik, a lot of Russia's KIA are from wounded that can't be treated in time. Additionally, Ukraine appears to put more of an emphasis on retrieving the wounded (which naturally, is easier when on defense)
While on offense, Ukraine's ratio drops down more to somewhere near 2:1 or 3:1. Unfortunate, but that's what happens when you're attacking highly fortified areas with liberal use of minefields and no air superiority. Western tactics work - but only with western hardware, hence the need for F-16s, more tanks, more mine-clearers, and more long-range missiles. Cause it's a lot easier to clear minefields when no one's shooting at you.
(https://i.imgur.com/f5cUy6dl.jpeg)
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/13/europe/russia-attack-avdiivka-ukraine-intl/index.html
So far, they haven't made significant progress, though I have heard that they have made some progress, capturing a small amount of territory. But man oh man, at what cost! Tons of armored vehicle losses and extremely high infantry losses. It was exactly these sorts of tactics that exhausted the Russian advance last time and allowed for the Ukrainian counter attack.
Ukrainian resistance blows up train full of ammo, fuel (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-special-forces-sabotage-railway-track-ammunition-train-in-occupied-melitopol/)
Headed from Crimea to Melitopol with a short stop in hell 🔥
There's combat footage of a wounded Russian soldier lying in the grass in obvious agony near a russian armored convoy. An armored vehicle traverses and appears to run him over before the vehicle explodes.
I'm genuinely confused about what I just saw - who did what and why.
I see that North Korea has shipped 1000 shipping containers full of military equipment and weapons to Russia for its ongoing war in Ukraine.
Russia needing help from North Korea. Boy, that powerful Russian military is really rearing its ugly head now isn't it. Has the stench of desperation all over it.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 13, 2023, 08:02:30 PMI see that North Korea has shipped 1000 shipping containers full of military equipment and weapons to Russia for its ongoing war in Ukraine.
Yeah, unfortunately. Dictators support dictators. Which is why it's important that democracies support democracies. There are a lot more of us than them, and our economies are better, for some strange reason.
We have torpedoes, don't we?
Quote from: the_antithesis on October 13, 2023, 10:20:35 PMWe have torpedoes, don't we?
Shipping containers traveling by rail from North Korea to Russia. It's possible to bomb such traffic, but that'd be tantamount to declaring war.
Well, all the cool kids seem to be doing that.
Apparently the Russian soldiers are now shooting at each other! 🤣 🫡
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 11, 2023, 05:12:18 PMBelgium creates $1.8 billion usd fund for Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-creates-1-8-billion-fund-for-ukraine-from-taxing-frozen-russian-assets/) from interest on frozen Russian assets.
Yeah, we got cyberattacked for that one. :p
Russia's human wave attacks yield poor results (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-bloody-human-wave-tactics-ukraine-white-house-says-2023-10)
Quote"As was the case during Russia's failed winter offensive last year, the Russian military appears to be using human wave tactics, where they throw masses of poorly trained soldiers right into the battlefield without proper equipment, and ... without proper training and preparation," John Kirby, the spokesperson for the National Security Council, said.
He added that Russia "continues to show no regard for the lives of its own soldiers, willingly sacrificing them in pursuit of Putin's goals, while Ukraine continues to fight bravely, effectively, and smartly."
Kirby said that where Russia is making progress, it is "very scant and short."
Can confirm. Russian telegram boasted that they had taken a significant hill a few km from their lines fairly deep in the grey zone between Russian lines and Ukrainian lines. And they weren't lying - their troops were there. A drone photo revealed a bunch of corpses on that hill. They didn't have a pulse, but they were there. Apparently, Ukrainian artillery/drones routed/killed them not long after they achieved "victory". I can't think of a more fitting metaphor for Russian offensive action.
Also, boasting of taking a specific location and then broadcasting that location online while your troops are still there is probably not the smartest idea in the world.
It seems the Russians are shifting from Avdiivka to other fronts to see if they can make more progress elsewhere.
I read a little news blurb that the Kremlin was seeking some sort of win - no matter the human cost - in order to make headlines showcasing their strength rather than weakness, to better control "the information space" (i.e. people's perceptions and opinions) To me, that makes little sense. They want to win the war, right?
Rationalizing failure the Russian way: Russian propagandist explains Avdiivka failure (https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1713491754454839805?s=20) (fittingly, it's on twitter)
Essentially he says that it's good they're withdrawing because they're "hitting the impenetrable" (it wasn't impenetrable when the Ukrainians captured it, though)
Immediately after saying that it's good that they're withdrawing, he says that they cut Ukrainian supply lines and that was the "intermediate goal". Moving the goalposts, much?
Then he says that the Ukrainians made concrete fortifications back in 2015 when "no one was firing at them" like they were paranoid psychos or something (what happened in 2014?) and bizarrely portrays concrete as some sort of impenetrable barrier for Russian artillery (I guess those North Korean shells aren't so good)
And he closes by saying the Russian "Defense" Ministry didn't promise anything, apparently making it okay to not deliver victory. What a strange rationalization.
He also made it a point to state that he only consumes official Russian sources - i.e. that he's a sucker and deluded fool who has lost track of reality. I bet that plays better with a Russian audience.
Imagine this sorry state of intellectual decline and lack of even basic honesty spreading throughout Europe.
Russia has threatened to shoot down western satellites. Would that be considered an act of war?
If you see someone on the news that looks like Putin, be aware that it might be a look-alike. His inner circle has apparently chosen a successor, but they may want to hide Putin's death from the world because they're such lying scoundrels.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 16, 2023, 03:12:07 PMRussia has threatened to shoot down western satellites. Would that be considered an act of war?
I'm thinking yes. Yes indeed. This would unleash chaos, and the world will be in trench warfare after we've destroyed our spacial capacities.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 16, 2023, 03:12:07 PMRussia has threatened to shoot down western satellites. Would that be considered an act of war?
Absolutely. So they won't. Talk is cheap.
Ukrainian drones hit 428 Russian pieces of equipment in a week (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-army-drones-sets-time-112610207.html), new record
Yeah, their bark is probably worse than their bite. I certainly hope so.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 16, 2023, 09:08:00 PMYeah, their bark is probably worse than their bite. I certainly hope so.
I mean, they've threatened to nuke Germany and the UK so much that I've lost count.
Also, they're known to use coercion to manipulate people into improperly weighing Russian interests over other interests, thereby taking actions which are far more favorable to Kremlin interests than they otherwise might've been *coughEloncough*
Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed 9 Russian helicopters in overnight raid (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-special-forces-say-they-destroyed-9-russian-helicopters-in-occupied-territories/) in occupied Luhansk and Berdiansk
They also claim to have destroyed an air defense system, an ammo warehouse, some unspecified special equipment in the vicinity, and damaged the runways.
Edit - just saw a video of the attack. I'm surprised it didn't do even more damage than that. Because you can see at least 4 huge fires in the distance with explosions. It's like hell on Earth over there.
No Speaker of the House yet and a Nov 11 deadline to fund the US Govt. Neither Ukraine nor Israel can get substantial US aid without Congress. Ukraine has received around $100B so far and Biden is asking for $28B more. Also, Biden is looking for $100B Israel aid package for the Gaza crisis.
Guess we are gonna be selling some Treasuries to fund all this, LOL. I am wondering if the 10 year might make it to 7%. US debt is 33.5 $Trillion and counting. I hope they figure out how to keep Social Security and Medicare going. BTW, the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan cost taxpayers around $2.4 trillion or about 10x the cost of Ukraine and Israel if we commit.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
He is absolutely livid about the ATACMS, you don't even need a translator for that body language. :)
Also, what sort of crazy person eats pancakes with tea? Is that some oligarch/dictator thing?
And finally, Biden's way too smart for poison. He'd likely take the tea but forget to drink it and then wind up accidentally spilling it on some random Russian aide whose face melts off on camera.
Here's that footage I was talking from that overnight raid that destroyed 9 Russian helicopters:
Like I said, that place was like hell on Earth.
Russians worry about counterattack near Kherson (//http://)
QuoteRussian sources expressed pronounced concern about ongoing Ukrainian activity on the east bank of Kherson Oblast and framed these activities as part of a potential larger Ukrainian operation. The majority of Russian claims about developments on the east bank are largely single-sourced to one prominent Russian milblogger who has recently heavily focused his reporting on this section of the front.[6] Russian sources characterized the reported assaults as a Ukrainian effort to expand a "bridgehead" on the east bank and the initial stages of a larger offensive operation across the Dnipro River.[7] Russian President Vladimir Putin similarly described Ukrainian activity in Kherson Oblast as the "next counteroffensive" and continued his typical rhetorical line by painting all Ukrainian offensive operations as a failure.[8] The prominent Russian milblogger who is the basis for many of these claims has expressed concern about a Ukrainian offensive across the Dnipro River on and off throughout 2023 and escalated his warnings in late September 2023. The milblogger reacted to the reported assault on the night of October 17 to 18 by accusing the Russian MoD of not taking the threat of a Ukrainian crossing seriously.[9]
Heh. But seriously, considering that this is not sourced from anyone in the Russian military but just a single milblogger (and bizarrely, Putin himself) this doesn't seem like it has a huge amount of credibility. But who knows, maybe the Ukrainians will surprise us.
And just the whole fact that this is a thing just goes to show how jumpy and terrified Russian forces are anywhere near the frontline, but especially in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions because they know they're on the menu.
(https://i.imgur.com/MTIiFNAl.jpeg)
Russian tourists in North Korea. 🤔 LOL, well it's worth a shot!
I just read that Russia lost more than 1,300 troops in a single day!
(https://i.imgur.com/jULtAlkl.jpeg)
Hot damn, that's a new record. That's pretty much a whole week's worth of tanks in a single day. And it looks like Russia might hit the 300k kia mark before Halloween (lots of ghost costumes this year) when my earlier prediction was Christmas. I guess it'll be a real quiet Christmas this year in some parts of Russia.
Apparently, shortly after Dictator Putin played it cool, downplaying horrendous losses near Adiviika and bizarrely said that they were on "active defense" like they weren't attacking anyone, the Russians tried to assault again with entirely predictable results. Didn't see that coming.
So now some Russian channels are panicking about skyhigh losses, complaining that losses are similar to Bakhmut and that this will leave them open to advances by the Ukrainians.
Another says that Putin's tactics are bad (I hope his family lives on the first floor) and that they should halt assaults, prioritize Ukrainian air defense (too late, those missiles already hit shopping malls and hospitals), gain air superiority, and then go on the offense. Not a bad idea at all. Too bad the Ukrainians already have that idea with the F-16s. If he wants to participate in such an operation, he could always switch sides. I imagine that it'd be far less painful that way.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 20, 2023, 11:18:27 AMI just read that Russia lost more than 1,300 troops in a single day!
Yes! Astounding!
Translated Russian telegram:
(https://i.imgur.com/koaSqTXl.jpeg)
(Putin visited the military HQ in Rostov, Russia recently)
'The Assault Failed, Everyone Was Killed' – Russian Soldier Reveals Horrific Losses (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22970)
QuoteIn the intercepted call published by Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR), the man describes losing 100 men "in a few days."
"The assault failed. Everything is in the s**t, everyone was killed," he says.
The soldier's location is not disclosed but Russia has been suffering extremely heavy losses in its so far failed attempts to take the town of Avdiivka.
QuoteHe then goes on to complain that the Russian military command hasn't delivered food or water to its troops in weeks.
"We haven't had food delivered to us for three weeks. We haven't had food delivered to us for three weeks," he says.
"Today is already the seventh day since we have been brought water."
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/world-news/2023/06/18/TELEMMGLPICT000339769027_16871035541280_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqwtUT54c80eKHJHMfvK9NIkidrhLnGaHHhR6FJ9N0-H0.jpeg?imwidth=680)
"That sucks, LOL"
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F83DFEHX0AE7HM2?format=jpg&name=small)
Earlier, I said that the ATACMS strike on October 17th destroyed 9 aircraft. It was actually 9 at Berdyansk and 5 at Luhansk - and those are just the definite, catastrophic kills. Well, we have satellite photos now and that's probably an undercount.
That ATACMS strike used cluster munitions - so little bomblets fell all over the place. Depending on how you define destroyed, it's more like 20-21. I just saw a picture of a Ka-52 cockpit that looks like swiss cheese. It might - and I stress - might be able to fly, but good luck making it home in one piece.
Yeah, it sure must suck to be a Russian soldier.
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 20, 2023, 09:45:12 PMYeah, it sure must suck to be a Russian soldier.
Not for that guy who turned in a tank ($10k usd, comfortable place to live, good chance at Ukrainian citizenship).
And the guy who turned in a helicopter ($500,000 usd, a comfortable home for his whole family, and I assume a similar shot at Ukrainian citizenship. They hit the lotto!
Come and take it: Russian looters in occupied territory burn in their loot-filled car (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/20/7424970/)
Partisans once again making life difficult for the invaders.
Russian telegram:
Quote"To say that our artillery suffers greatly from enemy FPV (First Person View) and drone bombers is almost an understatement. If our army still needs artillery, the problem needs to be solved systematically, massively, and quickly.
No illusions here:
The enemy has qualified unmanned aerial vehicle squadrons. Not idiots from the 404, but skilled warriors. They fly limitlessly and almost unpunished above us at depths of up to 30 km.
They constantly monitor the juiciest targets. As soon as the guys go on a mission, a couple of FPVs fly towards them, and 2-3 'baba yagas' (huge Ukrainian made drones) wait in ambush.
One anti-drone squadron fights against all of this, if the division has a very progressive commander. But all the equipment the guys have is what they managed to gather from volunteers or buy themselves.
You can see the results in Ukrainian channels. There is always video confirmation of our artillery being hit, and they always upload it online.
Something urgent needs to be done!"
This is a rather telling admission.
First, the Ukrainians spot and track Russian equipment very early on.
Second, the Ukrainians generally ambush the Russians, not the other way around.
Third, these are devastating strikes that the Russians do not have the ability to counter (the reason given is poor provisioning) causing terrible losses.
Finally, artillery losses are especially keenly-felt. They state that if army still needs artillery, something should be done quickly. I'm assuming that's an exaggeration, but not much of one. Russia has consistently lost 20-30 (or more) artillery every day for a long time now.
Israeli politician blasts Putin live on Russian state media: (https://news.yahoo.com/netanyahu-party-member-furiously-threatens-091207105.html) "Russia it will 'pay the price' for supporting Hamas"
And on that note, I will point out that Hamas's official website is hosted on a Moscow server, almost certainly with Putin's approval, given the sensitive nature of the conflict.
Also, Putin did not call Netanyahu to express sympathies (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/12/russia-israel-hamas) for the massacre of civilians, looting, and theft of children (tactics that seem oddly familiar...) and refused to label Hamas a terrorist organization, unlike the West.
One final note: Israel is working on a lot of innovative and interesting military technologies and if some of them were to accidentally find their way to Ukraine, well it'd be a little bit of poetic justice.
Today and yesterday and the day before, absolutely nothing happened on the southern bank of the Dnieper river in Kherson region.
(https://i.imgur.com/9uhICEBl.jpeg)
Russian armor smashed near Avdiivka (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-defense-forces-destroy-russian-armor-in-the-avdiivka-direction/)
(https://mil.in.ua/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IMG_20231021_113058.jpg)
In some of the Avdiivka footage, a Russian armored transport backs up due to enemy fire - right into its own dismounted infantry. It's hard to take an exact tally due to the smoke, but at least 3-4 guys got partially or completely run over.
That driver better have died in that failed assault or he's likely find a grenade in his pillow.
The ratio of vehicle losses over the past three days is around 5.5:1 (Russian:Ukrainian) and that's only the independently verified wrecks. Adviika appears to be skewing the average with ludicrous equipment losses on the Russian side with comparatively light losses on the Ukrainian side.
Blasts in Crimea (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/22/7425233/)
Bridge closed (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/22/7425168/) (due to beach party)
Russian telegram falsely claims to have captured Ukrainian spy chief Budanov. It's pretty funny - they just have some rando taking a picture in front of a wall and photoshopped Budanov's face there. It's like the Sims 3 debacle all over again LOL.
This and the fake coma story leads me to think they must really hate this guy. Stuff like this must put a smile on his face - if such a thing were possible.
Nowhere to hide (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/21/2200717/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-increasingly-has-nowhere-to-hide)
"One strike is all we need" Ukraine conducts high-value assassinations (https://news.yahoo.com/washington-post-ukraine-conducts-high-153035673.html)
QuoteIntelligence obtained by the SBU allowed successful strikes on high-value military targets, killing several other Russian commanders and only narrowly missing Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, the news outlet said.
Ukraine reportedly attempted to strike at Gerasimov when he was visiting Russian troops in April. While senior high-ranking officers were said to have been killed in the attack, Gerasimov escaped with his life.
The CIA reportedly asked the Ukrainians to pull their punches. When the CIA thinks you're too bloodthirsty...
Checkout Russian demographics....so screwed, look at the population chart. Yeah No wonder they wanted Ukraine. What a backfire.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2020/
Quote from: Cassia on October 23, 2023, 10:12:15 PMCheckout Russian demographics....so screwed, look at the population chart. Yeah No wonder they wanted Ukraine. What a backfire.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2020/
Yep. Population of Russia set to decrease by 7 million from 2021 to 2046 (https://news.yahoo.com/russian-population-set-decrease-more-141305407.html). And that includes the nearly 2.5 million in occupied Crimea and doesn't include Ukraine war losses. So really, it's more like a 10 million loss.
Lots of other countries are having somewhat similar plateaus or even modest declines, of course. But Russia's a bit different in that it's a bit steeper than normal. In addition, the overall state of health (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_in_Russia) isn't great. Life expectancy was nearly the world average in 2019 (https://data.who.int/countries/643), which is not great, not terrible but that was before the Ukraine war, when Russians began to experience a large number of smoking-related accidents and bizarre mishaps, both within Russia and abroad.
British defence ministry: Russian casualties top 480,000 (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-has-likely-suffered-480k-casualties-in-ukraine-uk-intel-2023-10)
150,000-190,000 have been killed or permanently wounded
240,000-290,000 temporarily wounded and could theoretically return to combat in some capacity
Doesn't include Wagner or prisoner battalions. Wagner has 22,000 kia and 40,000 wounded (https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-war-over-20000-wagner-troops-were-killed-prigozhin/) as of May 2023
Reading Ukrainian news is quite strange in that I can read from people reporting from a country which is quite literally a warzone speak about my own country - which is not at war, much less fighting it on its own soil - with deep concern.
The US has a new Speaker of the House (https://gopforukraine.com/legislator/mike-johnson/), a Trump loyalist who has repeatedly come out against Ukrainian aid. (The other guy, a pro-Ukrainian Republican, couldn't become Speaker because Komrade Trump didn't allow it)
Obviously, Ukraine fears such government shakeups could endanger Ukrainian aid and they're absolutely correct to feel this way. The new guy (I try not to learn their names lest I get attached) says he's "open to negotiations" with Biden about it, which I suspect either means basically nothing or "how much ya got" in Trumpian terms.
Either way, it's inherently disgraceful to get our leaders chosen by some orange stain and likely very little if any good will come from it.
The chump can't die soon enough. It's an absolute disgrace of reason that he can say the shit he does, and the effect that it has on the US population...and the world. The response to his madness is disconcerting, to me.
He's more than disconcerting to me, he's infuriating, but since I have low blood pressure he may actually be helping me stay alive by raising it. 🤔
The Ukrainians have gotten very, very good with drones. The world's foremost expert in deconstructing Russian equipment.
There has been a slew of videos lately of them hitting everything from armored vehicles to artillery to one of those fancy zoopark radars (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-zoopark-counterbattery-radar-system-avdiivka-1836829) to logistics trucks.
My personal favorites are those "flamethrower" artillery, the TOS-1 Buratino, which is really a MLRS that shoots rockets with thermobaric warheads. Sounds nasty. I hope they're not volatile...
It's like watching the Death Star go boom. Blazing sun? Well it is now.
There's also footage of a Russian armored vehicle ramming another one (road rage is a terrible thing) and then they both explode shortly thereafter, presumably from artillery or mine.
There's also one of a Russian IFV blown straight up, sending the crew so high that it wouldn't be a bad idea to give them parachutes next time. And unlike Pink Floyd, one guy definitely did not wish he was here.
There are just so many crazy catastrophic events pouring in daily that I can barely even keep them straight. It honestly looks like they really have no idea what they're doing and they're just sending in fresh troops to walk over the unalived ones and hoping that works. It's like using a pull door by just charging into it as hard as you can with your face. I mean, I guess that might theoretically work after some time, but is the gain commensurate with the cost?
According to intel (https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-23-2023), North Korean munitions to Russia will stave off shell hunger and give Russia enough munitions to continue shelling throughout 2024, though obviously at a slower rate-of-fire than 2022.
QuoteEstonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Head Colonel Ants Kiviselg stated on October 20 that Russia still has around four million artillery shells remaining, which Russian forces can use for "low intensity" warfare for an additional year.[1] Kiviselg noted that there are reports that North Korea has shipped up to 1,000 containers of ammunition to Russia, each containing between 300-500 pieces of artillery ammunition.[2] Kiviselg estimated that North Korea may have therefore provided between 300,000-500,000 pieces of ammunition to Russia, which can last up to one month at the current daily rate of consumption of around 10,000 shells a day.
This means that Ukraine's best bet now is to blow up the launchers, because the shells are going to be there pretty much no matter what.
Ukrainian pilots have finished F-16 simulator training and are now training on actual F-16s in Arizona. Won't be much longer now.
Quote from: Hydra009 on October 26, 2023, 08:24:07 AMUkrainian pilots have finished F-16 simulator training and are now training on actual F-16s in Arizona. Won't be much longer now.
Russia is famous for their anti-aircraft missiles. Won't F-16s just get shot down or is the battle front out of range of missiles because of HIMARS? If they hold the F-16s back they would just be defensive.
Quote from: Cassia on October 26, 2023, 08:27:58 AMRussia is famous for their anti-aircraft missiles. Won't F-16s just get shot down or is the battle front out of range of missiles because of HIMARS? If they hold the F-16s back they would just be defensive.
It's been a while since I read the benefits of F-16s laid out in a consise way, so bear in mind that I'm working from memory.
But basically, F-16s will allow the Ukrainians to detect and engage Russian aircraft from much farther ranges. Huge boost in capability and survivability.
F-16s would also counter Russian attack helicopters, which have been a major pain on advancing Ukrainian forces. They'd be forced to keep their distance or get shot down. Russian armor faces a similar dilemma.
F-16s will also give the Ukrainians a dependable platform for launching Western bombs and missiles instead of kludging together some bizarre fusion of soviet and western hardware. So simply having the F-16 will unlock new western technologies for Ukraine, technologies that couldn't feasibly work with old Soviet airframes.
F-16s would also improve Ukrainian anti-air capabilities in general and help shoot down incoming cruise missiles.
What they won't do is give Ukraine air superiority and allow them to launch unrestricted strikes all over Russian-held territory. Unfortunately.
There is no war in ba sing se.
I read that Putin had a heart attack this past Sunday, and is in stable condition. But his doctors are not optimistic.
But I read yesterday that Putin is just fine and any rumors to the contrary are false.
So I guess only my hairdresser knows for sure.
🤔
Quote from: Unbeliever on October 26, 2023, 11:16:58 PMI read that Putin had a heart attack this past Sunday, and is in stable condition. But his doctors are not optimistic.
But I read yesterday that Putin is just fine and any rumors to the contrary are false.
So I guess only my hairdresser knows for sure.
🤔
The heart attack story is poorly sourced and almost certainly false, though I wish it were otherwise.
Still, Putin is an old and increasingly frail man (the shirtless horseback pictures were a deliberate attempt at state propaganda - to paint him as virile and manly as possible while he was at his peak fitness, an image that would likely stick even as his health had started to decline) so a heart attack is still in the cards. I'm fairly certain his blood pressure spikes anytime anything happens with the Kerch bridge.
As with the Donald, the worse he feels the better I feel.
Russia executing own soldiers near Avdiivka (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67234144)
Quote"Russia's mobilised forces remain under-trained, under-equipped and unprepared for combat, as was the case during their failed winter offensive last year," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in a briefing on Thursday.
He said that the Russian military "appears to be using what we would call 'human wave' tactics, just throwing masses of these poorly trained soldiers right into the fight."
"No proper equipment, no leadership, no resourcing, no support. It is unsurprising that Russian forces are suffering from poor morale," Mr Kirby added.
Pro-Russian turncoat/collaborator shot twice in Crimea (https://kyivindependent.com/pro-russian-politician-on-ukrainian-wanted-list-reportedly-shot-in-crimea/)
QuoteTsaryov has been wanted by the Ukrainian authorities since after Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 for supporting the Russian occupation of Ukrainian territories.
QuoteU.S. intelligence identified Tsaryov as a potential puppet leader the Kremlin could have installed if they had been successful in occupying Kyiv, according to the New York Times.
Tsaryov openly admitted to the New York Times that he participated in Russia's full-scale invasion.
He's in the hospital in serious condition.
Moscow received a Hamas delegation (https://apnews.com/article/russia-iran-hamas-israel-palestine-9b57f4322f57f3a6ff33e2908cb2a3ef), the only country to do so after Hamas's stunning massacre of civilians on October 7th.
Terrorists united.
Russian telegram says that a captured Ukrainian - allegedly in Ukraine Military Intelligence - led two Russians (an "investigator" and police officer) to a spot where he had stashed a gun, shot both of them dead, and escaped.
Obviously, this requires confirmation, hopefully from the hero himself - likely immediately followed by a movie deal.
It's also unclear why the prisoner was the one leading law enforcement around. Traditionally, it's the other way around. That unorthodox move would seem to have greatly contributed to an unorthodox outcome.
But either the Russians have taken to writing James Bond stories which portray them in an especially negative light or something serious really did happen, though perhaps not quite so dramatic as portrayed. We'll see.
A tracking device was found in a car in the Polish President's motorcade (https://kyivindependent.com/media-tracking-device-in-polish-presidents-car-may-have-been-planted-by-russia/), though that car was not used by the President himself.
It could've been bugged for months before being detected. Russia is of course the top suspect.
Russia launched 4 Iskander missiles from occupied Crimea.
3 were shot down and the 4th never reached its target.
What a waste.
Russia is forcing Ukrainian POWs to fight its war (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-to-deploy-ukrainian-pow-battalion-to-front-lines-coercion-fears-isw-2023-10)
This is explicitly forbidden in the Geneva Convention and constitutes a war crime.
Just one more in a long list.
Russians storm airport looking for Israelis/Jews (https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-770738)
QuoteFootage reportedly from the scene shared on local Telegram channels showed rioters chanting "Allahu Akbar" and stopping cars in order to check the documents of passengers to ensure they were not Israeli or Jewish.
QuoteIn Khasavyurt, also located in Dagestan, rioters gathered at a hotel where Israelis who had fled the fighting were reported to be staying, with some of the rioters entering the hotel and only leaving after ensuring that no Israelis were in the hotel.
The "ChP Dagestan" Telegram channel reported that the riots in Khasavyurt began after "a person resembling an Israeli citizen" was seen walking near the hotel.
Russia has long bemoaned a neo-Nazi presence in Europe. They're absolutely correct in their claim that Nazis are tolerated in corrupt countries.
I can't say anything about anything going on in Kherson region, specifically the tenuously-held Russian territory near the Dniper river.
But I can say that Russian milbloggers claim that the Russian general in charge of the Kherson region, General Makarevich, has been fired/replaced (https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2023).
Don't hold your breath waiting for an official Russian MoD confirmation, because those typically are neither certain nor quick. Remember Surovikin? He was allegedly put under house arrest shortly after the Wagner debacle and it took quite a while before the Kremlin made a peep about him, much less showed that he was still alive. Ultimately, the Kremlin did admit that he had been fired and replaced with Gerasimov.
Careless smoking: Explosion, plume of smoke at Russian gunpowder plant (https://www.newsweek.com/video-explosion-gunpowder-plant-russia-solikamsk-1839463)
Russia says that no one was injured or killed because there was no one at the plant at the time of the explosion. That's not impossible so I guess they had a lucky break. But then they double down and say a real whopper: that the explosion/fire didn't affect the operation of the plant. Exsqueeze me?? The explosion that caused windows to rattle kilometers away and caused a big ol' plume of smoke - you're telling me that everything's peachy at the plant after something like that?! That's just straight up impossible and definitely a lie. That is such a lie that I'm starting to have second thoughts about the no injuries statement cause if you're willing to lie about the damage you're definitely willing to lie about casualties.
(https://i.imgur.com/gkpwRT6l.jpeg)
Russia hit 300k infantry losses well ahead of schedule thanks to a combination of bad strategy and bad tactics. Artillery is really taking a beating, too. And finally, Ukraine keeps damaging/destroying Russian air defense (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23508).
Russia still has around 400k troops in Ukraine, but that's only a little over a year's worth at current rates of consumption. They could recruit more of course, but Russian troop quality diminishes as casualties mount and Russia is running out of ways to meet quotas without resorting to deeply unpopular mass conscription and of course, provisioning such troops is also a major hurdle. So while on paper, Russia can field a vast army with lots of tanks and airpower to quickly overcome any adversary, the reality of the situation is very different.
Russia also lost three S-400 SAM launchers this week (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-likely-lost-at-least-4-surface-to-air-missile-launchers-in-one-week/), which cost $500,000 usd each ($1.5 million in total)
This is the best AA Russia has and usually serve as strongpoints in Russian AA coverage, so any losses are keenly felt, not easily replaced, and could introduce vulnerabilities in the area, which can then be exploited.
Hold my Horilka: Ukraine destroys Russian GPS jammer with GPS-guided bomb (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/31/the-russians-installed-a-gps-jammer-in-ukraine-the-ukrainians-blew-it-up-with-a-gps-guided-bomb)
Of course, the jammer wasn't operational at the time of the strike. Still, it's a nice shot and sums up Russian fortunes in Ukraine.
Ukraine helped convince 17,000 Russian soldiers to desert over the course of the war (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-information-operations-help-drive-russian-military-desertions-2023-11)
It's kind of tricky to know exactly what caused what - there are a variety of factors at play in Russian desertions, including but not limited to poor equipment, not getting paid, bad/abusive/cowardly leadership, lack of rotations, high casualties, friendly fire, insufficient artillery/air support, literally drinking out of a puddle to survive, etc, but I imagine that watching drone drop videos and seeing footage of a whole Russian platoon "resting" along the side of a road near Adiviivka is also a factor.
But the fact remains that Ukraine is fighting an informational war with Russia every bit as crucial as the physical one. Because whoever gets their message out and is believed is the one who gets international support. and without international support, the war is lost. Everything from news announcements and short combat clips on telegram to even seemingly empty gestures like saying public officials saying Slava Ukraine or lighting up the Eiffel Tower in Ukrainian colors helps move that needle. Hell, even cartoon dogs on Twitter fighting Russian troll farms and doing fundraisers ultimately do some good.
(https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/abv0PXE_460s.jpg)
Russia kidnaps left-wing activist from Kyrgyzstan and torture him at Moscow (https://kyivindependent.com/human-rights-project-russian-runaway-opposition-activist-detained-tortured-in-moscow/)
Something that Kyrgyzstan should bear in mind in all future dealings and everyone should bear in mind when considering visiting Russia.
Had a bit of news that is highly disconcerting (or downright scary). One of my grandsons moved to Moscow! Why? To study physics! I guess he was in connection with a few friends who also live there. He does not think it is dangerous??!! He does march to the beat of his own drums--he did not go to college, but he did earn his official captains license for piloting large ships and has been taking jobs around the world doing that. I guess he is going to do what he is going to do.
I think people who live in Russia aren't allowed to march to the beat of their own drums. I like that he wants to learn physics, but couldn't he do that somewhere less dangerous?
Quote from: Mike Cl on November 03, 2023, 10:09:40 PMOne of my grandsons moved to Moscow! Why? To study physics! I guess he was in connection with a few friends who also live there. He does not think it is dangerous??!! He does march to the beat of his own drums--he did not go to college, but he did earn his official captains license for piloting large ships and has been taking jobs around the world doing that. I guess he is going to do what he is going to do.
That's incredibly risky. For starters, US credit/debit cards don't work in Russia, lots of websites/apps are banned, and of course traveling through the border is a dicey proposition at best. And any male living in Russia between 18-30 risks conscription, which is now delivered electronically (before, you could just ghost them) and seeking a medical exception is now very difficult and not likely to work. Even college is no longer a valid excuse. Of course, the alternative is jail time, and some Russians have chosen that and likely saved their lives. Still, Russian prison is no picnic. But don't panic, it's theoretically possible that he won't get called up since Moscow has one of the lowest conscription rates of anywhere in Russia.
Personally, I think he is a bit crazy! But I had no impact upon his decision. I can only hope he returns safely!
Ukraine hits Kerch shipyard with Storm Shadow, hits Russian missile ship (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-military-says-it-hit-zalyv-plant-port-city-kerch-crimea-2023-11-04/)
Black Sea fleet getting blacker by the day.
Moscow of course said there were no casualties. In fact, they allegedly "shot down" 14 of 15 cruise missiles and only the one hit the ship. And if you believe that, you're probably waiting on pins and needles for JFK junior (who is dead) to restore Trump's Presidency.
Of course, the hope is that the Russian ship is either destroyed outright or so badly damaged that it can no longer fire Kalibur cruise missiles at Ukraine, but we don't know. All we really have to go off of is Ukraine saying they hit the shipyard and some shaky cam footage, allegedly of that same shipyard and taken today, where something did explode, but it's still unclear what was damaged.
But the best case scenario is that we can scratch off one cruise missile ship and with excellent timing, since Ukraine expects a winter bombardment of its electrical infrastructure similar to last year.
I think JFK Jr. Is only mostly dead. 🤔
Ukraine confirms that the missile ship was destroyed (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/5/7427244/)
A fairly modern one (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karakurt-class_corvette) (by Russian standards) too.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/mcs/media/images/73363000/gif/_73363841_ukraine_crimea_russia_map3_624.gif)
The shipyard hit was the Zalyv Shipyard, on the far eastern side of Crimea, just south of Kerch. The Russian Black Sea Fleet Remnants were relocated from Sevastopol, the far western side of Crimea, to Feodosia, a south-eastern part of Crimea. The Zalyv Shipyard and Kerch aren't very far east of that.
The Remnants' positioning far from Odesa and other Ukrainian territory but close to Russian repair facilities reflects a defensive stance undertaken due to frequent attacks and damage from Ukrainian drones and missiles near Sevastopol. Although the Remnants remain afloat - for now - they certainly no longer control the sea.
So, is Putin dead or not? It's all very confusing. I just read that his body double has a bad case of the flu.
Quote from: Unbeliever on November 05, 2023, 06:31:59 PMSo, is Putin dead or not? It's all very confusing. I just read that his body double has a bad case of the flu.
'fraid not. Trust me, you'll know when it happens because there will be an immediate power struggle in Moscow.
Also, spontaneous celebrations throughout eastern Europe and potentially free borscht at a few places here in the States, as is tradition. And finally, there's a high chance that I'll post the meme of Zelenskyy taking a selfie with Putin's lifeless body and the video of the Allied Victory cutscene from Red Alert 1. I don't see anyone here, either. *shrugs*
I read that Zelensky invited The Donald to Ukraine to show him that he couldn't put an end to the conflict. He said he'd only need 24 minutes to show the Chump the error of his big mouth.
Russia is stockpiling missiles to use when temperatures drop belowe freezing, targetting Ukrainian electricty grids - an exact repeat of their last strategy.
Ukraine is stockpiling drones to launch a massive drone attack on known Russian positions right as they settle in for the winter. We'll see who's strategy works better.
The Russian tactic of stockpiling missiles does present certain opportunities for Ukraine...like, oh I dunno, blowing up the missiles while they're sitting around in stockpiles.
In unrelated news, an ammo dump just blew up in Donetsk (https://www.newsweek.com/video-explosion-ammunition-storage-mariupol-1841040).
Photos have surfaced of the allegedly damaged Russian missile ship Askold (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/6/7427512/)
Damaged is quite the understatement! A large chunk of it has been turned to slag. It's a wonder that it's still afloat. Destroyed. Total loss.
A "glorious" career bombarding Ukrainian apartment buildings cut tragically short. Such a shame.
Edit - video has emerged of the impact. Direct hit. It's definitely donezo.
Quote from: Unbeliever on November 06, 2023, 12:05:24 AMI read that Zelensky invited The Donald to Ukraine to show him that he couldn't put an end to the conflict. He said he'd only need 24 minutes to show the Chump the error of his big mouth.
Surprise surprise, Captain Bone Spurs chickened out (https://kyivindependent.com/media-trump-declines-zelenskys-visit-to-ukraine/), citing "conflict of interest". He sure has a lot of those lately. He should cancel his presidential bid for the same reason.
Disconnected: Ukraine destroys Russian drone operator training building (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-destroys-drone-training-center-in-donetsk-with-missile-strike/)
Russian propagandists advertised the location of the building, even going so far as to hang a Russian flag and identifying plaque on it.
QuoteAlthough efforts were made to blur the video, the view of the building across the street remained partially visible.
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSY_p4XOqvpBdEeMNiIkwW9lxV3gjcz9_OfU9WUlL5Np5fwM4s&s)
Ukraine receives new NASAMS (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-newly-delivered-nasams-systems-enter-service-in-ukraine/) to bolster its anti-air capabilities
Russian telegram is increasingly worried about the situation south of the Dniper river.
What we know for sure:
* The Ukrainians control multiple areas along the far side of the river
* They continue to control them, Russian efforts to retake this territory have been unsuccessful
Ukrainian sources are pretty tight-lipped about it, so I'll have to rely on the unreliable narrator that is Russian telegram posts.
The gist of it is that they have conquered "historically Russian lands" (a surprisingly vague term that I wish the Mongols would adopt just to troll them) at great cost and are very bitter - they use that term often - bitter that the Ukrainians have taken some of it back and they're powerless to push them out.
The author says that things are very bad at the frontline and claims/imagines that there are plenty of vehicles in reserve that would turn the tide, but aren't utilized for some unknown reason. He then claims that an unknown Russian - presumably bitter - leaked the coordinates of their general, who managed to survive a ukrainian attack.
He closes by emphatically asserting that Russian forces will triumph over "internal enemies" in addition to the "Ukrainofascists" and "their Western masters". That's what, *just* most of the G20?! Should be no problem for a country that can barely hold onto the Donbass and Crimea with 300k+ losses. Should be no problem to march on Berlin and Madrid, lol.
(I joke, but they seriously internalize this sort of propaganda and genuinely think they're fighting NATO or something. Evidently, someone in the Kremlin decided that it'd be embarrassing to lose to Ukriane, so they aren't. All ego.)
It has been interesting day in Ukraine.
Ukraine has met enough of EU criteria that it has been recommended to begin ascension talks with the EU (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-executive-proposes-start-membership-talks-with-ukraine-once-conditions-met-2023-11-08/).
I know the phrasing makes this seem like no big deal but this is HUGE! Ukraine is making significant progress toward EU membership, nearly done with the critical first few steps of applying for membership (no easy feat, considering hellbent Russian opposition, a shadow war that began long before Russian invasion) and fending off Russian invasion while simultaneously carrying out difficult reforms to how the country operates so that Ukraine's policies are more in line with EU member states.
Obviously, this won't happen tomorrow and will likely take several years at the least to complete the process and be formally invited to the EU, but it's looking increasingly likely that that's ultimately what's going to happen, Orban notwithstanding.
In addition to Ukraine, Moldova is also making progress towards EU membership. And Georgia has been recommended to be a new candidate state.
It should be noted that all three have had a difficult relationship with Russia to put it mildly and EU membership is something of hedge against future Russian aggression (Moldova in particular has a not-unfounded cause for worry there (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldovan-president-accuses-russia-buying-voters-local-election-2023-11-01/)) as well as to economically align themselves with countries that aren't autocratic sh&*holes and actually have something worthwhile to trade, which seems like a sound practical move.
Mouth of Putin Lavrov says that Russia is really upset with the West because *rolls dice* green energy (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-assails-west-over-switch-green-energy-2023-11-08/)
QuoteHe said Western boycotts of Russian energy in response to the war in Ukraine had "dealt a serious blow to global energy security. These steps led to the rupture of historical value chains, costly redistribution of global energy flows and rising transaction and logistics costs."
So...the West boycotts Russian crude oil, and that caused economic problems for...Russia? Is that right? Cause I kinda feel like that sort of thing was the whole point of the boycott. Granted, it hasn't been amazing for Europe, either - boycotts are never a fun time - but for obvious reasons, Russia isn't a trustworthy trading partner right now or in the foreseeable future (ask Carlsburg (https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/31/business/carlsberg-russia-business-stolen/index.html)) so divesting from a genocidal dictatorship seems like both a good moral move and good practical move.
Yanno, I think the Left/Green people in the US pitch green energy in a much less exciting way than they should. Save the planet this, renewables that, only one planet yadda yadda yadda. When really, they should just put out billboards of oil magnates and genocidal dictators pulling out their hair in frustration and crying like babies because their reliable steam cash of cash is starting to dry up. I feel like that would sell the crap out of some solar panels, you feel me?
QuoteThe sanctions have severely hit Russian gas giant Gazprom, which has lost most of its European markets, and forced Russia to sharply increase sales of oil at discounted prices to countries such as China and India
The move has also forced Russia to increase the taxes that Gazprom pays for oil extraction in order to make up some of the lost revenue.
Inflation is also up in Russia, they had to hike their interest rate to 15%, and their whole economy is at risk of "overheating" (https://news.yahoo.com/russia-putting-entire-economy-risk-153910796.html)
Hezbollah acquires Russian anti-ship missiles (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollahs-anti-ship-missiles-bolster-its-threat-us-navy-2023-11-08/)
No backsies: Russia begs for exported weapons back (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-weapons-exports-egypt-ukraine-war-1842238)
QuoteRussia has reportedly attempted to get back some of the weapons it has exported to countries such as Pakistan, Egypt, Belarus and Brazil, in order to boost its arsenal for the ongoing war with Ukraine.
In this case, it's helicopter engines, which count as military hardware due to their obvious use in fixing up attack helicopters. Egypt and Belarus complied, Pakistan says it wasn't asked, and Brazil refused to give them back.
No Russian reserves left (https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-deployed-available-reserves-military-191000819.html)
QuoteThe Russian military has committed all available reserves to the frontlines in Ukraine, [according to] Ukrainian Armed Forces reserve Colonel and military expert Roman Svitan
This causes Russia several problems:
1) New hotspots (like say, south of a certain river) pose a problem because there are no reserves left to plug up the holes.
2) Redeploying troops necessitates a drop in combat strength in where they're redeploying from. It's a zero-sum game.
3) Redeploying troops takes time, so it's actually temporarily a net negative. This temporary drop in combat strength can be exploited.
Full Metal Jacket - Russian troops beat their commander to death in occupied Crimea (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/10/7428230/)
Minus one Colonel. saves Ukraine the expense of sending a drone or missile after him.
And the soldier suspected of the murder reportedly changed into civilian clothes then somehow made his way back into Russia. Security is evidently not very competent.
Anti-Putin Russian Volunteer Corps again raids Russia, kills Lt. Colonel (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23916)
Both the Anti-Putin Volunteer Corps and Pro-Putin Russian telegram channels say that the Russian border guard vehicle came under fire and the FSB Lieutenant Colonel died on the scene.
As bad as things are on the frontlines, Russian classrooms are the true field of horrors (https://nitter.net/Gerashchenko_en/status/1722392698034749857#m)
It's like Jesus Camp had a baby with a Stalin personality cult.
Once again, I can't help but notice that these people have an oddly familiar antipathy towards liberalism. Reminds me a lot of a certain someone, who come to think of it, is quite fond of long and secretive talks with Putin.
Also, I feel like we should note that "only the force of arms will purify Ukrainians of anti-Russianism" is literally a call for genocide. This stuff is everywhere in Russia and they aren't very secretive about it. Anyone who thinks that you can hand Russia a chunk of Ukraine and peace will be restored is a gullible fool of the highest order.
This might not seem like a big deal, since they're relatively small patrol boats. But they allow for a relatively quick deployment of troops and equipment, so they're prime logistics targets. Every little bit helps.
(https://i.imgur.com/L1B6jPWl.jpeg)
Lots of infantry losses and armored vehicles losses just broke 10k, which is quite the achievement.
I don't understand these armored columns Russia deploys. About 8 vehicles in a line. I saw a video and it was brutal for them as one after another of the IFVs or tanks got blown up. Then the drivers panicked, backed up and ran over some soldiers and still got hit.
Comments on Twitter
-Sometimes you think you have seen those videos already until you realize, that they really do the same failed attack over and over again...
-Is it mandatory in russian military doctrine to squash at least two of the guys you just dropped off?
-Interesting concept of advancing over open terrain and minefields. What strikes me is that these attacks as a rule are single platoon or at best company level not any higher. Half a dozen vehicles riding into death again and again
Unfortunately, the situation is such that any advancement is detected quickly and artillery/drones pick off vehicles. It happens to the Ukrainians too, though much less often.
Doctrine dictates an armored column for such assaults for various reasons, but Ukraine quickly found the hard way that such formations are easy targets and changed their doctine and continue to use a lot of unorthodox approaches. Russian doctine is much less flexible and soldiers are often given specific instructions and have to follow it to the letter or risk getting shot.
I read that there is a lot of drug use among the Russian military. Could that have anything to do with it?
No idea, but I wouldn't doubt it. Alcoholism is of course a big thing.
But chances are good that the assaulting troops are stone cold sober before...you know, stone cold.
Russian state media publishes then retracts "goodwill gesture" to withdraw from south bank of Dniper river near Kherson (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-moves-some-troops-more-favourable-positions-east-dnipro-river-ria-2023-11-13/)
Quote from: Kremlin"There are a number of military operations (in the Kherson region) that we do not discuss, precisely so that the enemy has increased nervousness and moral disorder. This state of the enemy army satisfies us."
(https://i.pinimg.com/736x/42/4d/e2/424de28ec20a1f4941282640388e8fe0.jpg)
Ooh, they almost had me. They're not particularly good at keeping secrets, either. Troop locations gets leaked by partisans or disaffected Russians all the time. Hell, sometimes they post them online and wait for the geolocation or just bring a traceable cellphone.
And no, they're obviously not happy with the situation. A little over a year ago, they let Kherson slip through their fingers. And ever since, they've dealt with pesky incursions across the river that they could never quite get rid of.
Now, they've lost so many at this and other fronts (Adiviika in particular) that this seemingly easily-defensible territory is slipping from their grasp as well, and given the inherent difficult of a river crossing, that's quite a feat. When the Ukrainians complete a bridge and start sending in heavy vehicles, they're pretty much donezo. Especially because Kherson region wasn't fortified to the same extent as Zaporizhzhia.
The Russians are losing 14 vehicles for every one that the Ukrainians lose (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/14/on-one-key-eastern-battlefield-the-russians-are-losing-14-vehicles-for-every-one-the-ukrainians-lose/?sh=709debd55838)
QuoteIn and around Avdiivka through Nov. 10, the same analysts have counted 16 Ukrainian vehicle losses versus 221 Russian losses.
The headline is somewhat misleading because the loss ratio varies a lot by location and date and obviously, some losses are much more painful than others (don't worry, I'll touch on that later), but overall, the Ukrainians are absolutely trashing Russian armor.
QuoteHow Ukrainian forces held down their losses isn't hard to understand. Learning from the disastrous early assaults in June, commanders slowed the pace of their attacks—carefully preparing each battlefield with artillery and drones before flanking Russian positions.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has advanced just 10 miles or so along its main southern axes because Ukrainian forces have been cautious. The Russian countercounteroffensive around Avdiivka, by contrast, has been anything but cautious.
Ukrainian commanders clearly care whether their forces suffer losses in battle. Russian commanders clearly don't care.
Moscow is betting on ramming through on brute force alone and doesn't much concern itself with losses. After all, Russian stockpiles are much, much larger and Western countries - while much more technologically advanced - have had difficulty meeting Ukrainian needs.
Despite this, the Ukrainians have inflicted punishing losses for every inch and it's starting to pay off as Russian stockpiles - while large - are not infinite and all aspects of the Russian war machine are strained to breaking point - high let's say "turnover" among Russian officers, severe logistics problems, a vanishing naval presence, poorly supplied and demoralized troops which can no longer reasonably expect either rotation out or reinforcements should things with the Ukrainians literally and figuratively go south. As an example of this strain, a Russian regiment requested replacements (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/13/when-a-russian-regiment-ran-out-of-old-t-72ba-tanks-it-reequipped-with-even-older-t-72bs/?sh=7d0d191846b0) for its destroyed T-72s and instead of receiving T-80s or T-90s, received an even older version of the T-72, lacking the upgraded engine and improved stabilization of the destroyed ones. This seemingly reveals that the Kremlin has run out of anything better.
And when it comes to painful high-value losses, Russia is typically the one losing cherished equipment. The Ukrainians managed to bag a rare Electronic Warfare system just a couple days ago (https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defenders-destroy-rare-russian-221252419.html) and two other electronic warfare systems a couple days before that (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3785708-ukraines-special-forces-destroy-two-russian-ew-systems-near-avdiivka.html) and they've steadily chipped through high-end Russian armor, artillery, air defense (s-300 and s-400), planes, helicopters, and last but not least, ships. Though the Ukrainians have had losses as well - including some Bradleys and Leopards and 7 aircraft during 2023 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/06/the-ukrainian-air-force-lost-62-planes-in-2022-so-far-in-2023-it-has-lost-just-seven/?sh=5f9f434741b3), the Russians have not and likely will not inflict equivalent losses on Ukraine.
Still, Ukraine needs continued strong support to keep it afloat or Russia will ultimately win, despite horrendous losses.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 15, 2023, 03:02:26 PMStill, Ukraine needs continued strong support to keep it afloat or Russia will ultimately win, despite horrendous losses.
That is the Russian way, drown them in your own blood. By a 'win' are you thinking the entire country or the annexed regions?
A frozen conflict.
(https://i.imgur.com/rpkGkFJl.jpeg)
Russian losses continue to mount. There has been a lot of footage of Russian armored convoys getting destroyed as well as ammo dumps exploding. Reportedly, even an ammo dump in Russia went boom.
Interestingly, there's more than one instance of Russian infantry attempting to hide in old burnt-out Russian armored vehicles only to get blown up a second time. This tells me that the Russians are being defeated at the same exact place and in probably the same way over and over. That's fantastic news for Ukraine and very bad news for Russia.
There was also a short video of a bunch of Chechen troops "napping" in a building, caked in a layer of dust with debris strewn everywhere. Evidently, the Ukrainians hit some sort of Russian base in Ukraine with an explosion not powerful enough to level it, but powerful enough to cause "naps" and then searched it shortly thereafter.
I'm no Sherlock Holmes, but I can reasonably infer that the Chechens were taken by surprise, Ukrainian forces were nearby (apparently unbeknownst to the Chechens), and the fact that Ukrainians were allowed access to the site shortly after the strike indicates that there were no remaining Russians in the vicinity to stop their entry. All those details indicate a comprehensive victory for the Ukrainians.
Interviews of various Russians. A lot of it is either humdrum or duckspeak. But Yakov here has some rather interesting hot takes starting at 6m02sec and 7m46sec: first by declaring the Poland is justified in arming itself and then by saying that the war has a positive side: the elimination of scum here in Russia (wow, what a curveball of a sentence!)
Also, there was one question that I found fascinating: "Should Poland try to retake lands that previously belonged to it?" And obviously, the answer is no, though one would be hard-pressed to articulate why Polish irredentism is not okay and Russian irredentism is okay. And shockingly, Maria caught onto that implication very quickly and claimed that both are not okay. Saying that while in Russia is quite courageous.
I see what you guys are saying about drug use among the frontline Russian troops. Evidently, some didn't participate in a battle because they were too busy getting high and were subsequently brutally punished by their surviving comrades. Last seen digging a suspiciously large hole.
There's also footage of Russian troops stripping the body armor off a wounded comrade and casually leaving him behind. Sometimes, Ukrainian troops find Russian dead barefoot - without the boots they'd normally wear. I think we can safely deduce the reason for that.
Let's say Russia wins..we have a disturbingly pro-Russian India, N Korea, Iran, most of the Middle East and China. The EU is soft. Then Trump becomes our emperor. The free world is over, LOL.
I'm kinda looking forward to the bread and circuses.
We might get bread, but we probably won't have much dough...
It's definitely an all-hands-on-deck situation.
Certainly, Western countries have largely been complacent and underestimated authoritarian countries' ambitions, willingness to cooperate, and willingness to use any means to get what they want. Sanctions and other soft power has not been sufficient to rein them in - in fact, they use trade with the West to amass fortunes which are then used to fund terrorism, mercenary groups, invasion forces, and disinfo campaigns to destabilze the West and invade/plunder countries that seek closer ties with the West.
The solution to this is obviously to divest from such regimes, come to each other's aid quickly, and block the malign influence of dictatorial regimes.
However, that's easier said than done. Many countries have been spoiled by decades of relative peace and require time to ramp up military production and bring their own forces up to snuff, let alone send war material/equipment elsewhere. Others have allowed themselves to be held hostage by foreign energy and are just now realizing the importance of energy self-sufficiency. Others still are having difficulty shaking foreign agents from the top echelons of power and industry.
We have a truly worldwide struggle between western democracy and authoritarianism and it requires a lot of effort and bold action - by both leaders and citizens - to safeguard not just the Republic, but all Republics, in order to maintain a rules-based international order. Failure means not only weakening power, but a lack of ability to enforce rules and a worldwide collapse into anything-goes politics (we've seen a preview of that in here in the US)
Quote from: Cassia on November 17, 2023, 11:40:51 AMLet's say Russia wins..we have a disturbingly pro-Russian India, N Korea, Iran, most of the Middle East and China. The EU is soft. Then Trump becomes our emperor. The free world is over, LOL.
Trump has been defeated before, can be defeated again, and arguably has less power now though he still has a stranglehold on the GQP and still is a very credible threat to American democracy.
Putin can be defeated and is in fact well on his way to being defeated in a war so costly that will take decades for the Russian military to recover.
The EU has issues without a doubt, though it has been growing in power and influence. In fact, that's why it has attracted several new candidates in the first place. Ditto for NATO.
Imho, the glass is two-thirds full.
I hereby predict that Trumpalumpagus will never again be the president of the U.S.A. - I surely do hope I'm not wrong!
Coke and more coke: Russians endure heavy losses assaulting Avdiivka coke and chemical plant, face intensified drug abuse issues (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/17/frontline-report-russians-endure-heavy-losses-assaulting-avdiivka-chemical-plant-face-intensified-drug-abuse-issues/)
QuoteThe soldiers understand that their chances of survival are close to zero, which is why the use of forbidden substances is at all times high. Moreover, the destruction of the Russian artillery means that the Russian infantry has to advance without sufficient artillery support, incurring even more losses. And this has already been reflected in the total losses that Russians incurred today, more precisely, 1330 killed and wounded. As the quality of Russian attacks decreases, the probability that Ukrainian fighters will manage to withstand the Russian offensive becomes higher and higher.
A Ukrainian soldier lacking ammo/grenades captured 3 Russians (https://suspilne-media.translate.goog/618619-zdavajsa-zaraz-zakidau-granatami-bezzbrojnij-boec-92-i-brigadi-vzav-v-polon-troh-rosian/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true)
QuoteA serviceman from the 92nd separate assault brigade, Olehus, without grenades or ammunition, captured three Russian occupiers, one of whom holds the title 'Hero of Russia.'
When Olehus ran out of ammunition, he started to move back, and then he saw a dugout:
"A face and two hands with a rifle were looking at me from the hole. I didn't have any grenades left; I had already used them up, and the magazine was empty. I aimed the rifle at him and started shouting, 'Surrender, I'll throw grenades at you!' I didn't step back from him, on the contrary, I started walking towards him. When I shouted at him 'I'll throw grenades at you,' I knew I didn't have any grenades. But if I had stopped, it wouldn't have been very good for me.
The russian did put down his weapon and then two others appeared from the dugout.
"At the moment when I completely disarmed them, I started reloading the magazine. And then the one who was the first to come out noticed that my magazine was completely empty and was a bit surprised."
(https://i.imgur.com/IY49SiHl.png)
Hey, if I know I'm going to die, give me a little of that pervitin before I do. Get those young men to charge into artillery. Super soldiers till the end.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 17, 2023, 09:02:42 PMA Ukrainian soldier lacking ammo/grenades captured 3 Russians (https://suspilne-media.translate.goog/618619-zdavajsa-zaraz-zakidau-granatami-bezzbrojnij-boec-92-i-brigadi-vzav-v-polon-troh-rosian/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true)
(https://i.imgur.com/IY49SiHl.png)
My revolver is quite similar. It's a .357 and it's not polished, but it
is blue. I'm pretty sure that those differing characteristics would make little impression on anyone it was pointed at. I'm looking forward to never pointing it at anyone, even in self defense. I've killed several pounds of paper with it, though.
A comedy in two acts:
Act 1: Russia vows to unleash "hell" on Ukrainian forces on temporarily-occupied side of the Dniper river (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html) (referring to their "flamethrower" artillery, which fires thermobaric rockets)
Act 2: Ukraine blows up said flamethrower artillery (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-video-kherson-flamethrower-howitzers-1844693)
Putin's reaction:
(https://media.tenor.com/fkIj5H4MJbgAAAAC/loot-box-cry.gif)
(https://i.imgur.com/r9PX0xs.jpg)
Of course, for operational security, these positions are dated from several days ago and do not accurately reflect current realities. It serves just to show the high level of activity in that area and highlight the overall momentum. The Ukrainian brass says that it now has several bridgeheads on the other side of the river, as opposed to the couple it has had recently and the one it had months ago. There's a definite trend...
Russia for their part has attacked Ukrainian positions with gliding bombs, which Ukraine has little hope of intercepting and therefore must stay mobile or dig in. They have also largely wasted their remaining military might on defenseless civilians in Kherson city instead of focusing on militarily important targets. Putin as always, remains a petty and vindictive man, a cowardly and frail man who cannot fight anyone except old ladies and children, and even then only through intermediaries.
Caught 'em napping: Ukrainian forces storm Russian barracks in night raid (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/18/frontline-report-ukrainian-forces-storm-russian-barracks-in-night-raid/)
QuoteAfter extremely graphic footage of the aftermath leaked into the media space, a Russian fighter posted a video with an explanation. He said that Ukrainians took advantage of the exhausted, understaffed, and underequipped Russian forces and conducted a night raid. He said that Russian soldiers did not have enough men on the watch, creating a lot of blind spots and risk. He also said that even those on the watch did not have night vision, while Ukrainians had.
Moreover, Ukrainians also operated with silencers. As a result, Ukrainians quietly took out the whole guard, got onto the territory of the base, got into the underground barracks, and opened fire from machine guns at the sleeping soldiers, then threw several grenades and escaped.
You:
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/world-news/2022/04/22/TELEMMGLPICT000293211048_1_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwSX5rhseiWKOo9p9OQ-ymek.jpeg?imwidth=680)
The guy the motherland tells you not to worry about:
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/world-news/2023/08/10/TELEMMGLPICT000345343584_16916544793870_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bq7t4Eljyiy6iRMFuEKY2dXA1vLvhkMtVb21dMmpQBfEs.jpeg?imwidth=480)
Ukrainian sniper claims new world record for longest shot (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-sniper-claims-world-record-after-successful-3-8km-shot/)
He successfully shot a Russian soldier 3.8km away (the previous record was 3.54km)
And with a Ukrainian-made rifle, no less. Volodar Obriyu, or "Lord of the Horizon." Basically, it's a very, very, very good .50 cal sniper/antimaterial rifle.
Suffice it to say that the Russian soldier who got hit with a .50 cal round had quite a bad day.
Now, Ukraine has both the #1 spot and the #4 spot in sniping (2023 and 2022 respectively)
Just fyi, the #2 spot is a Canadian sniper in 2017 in Iraq against Daesh/ISIL and the #3 spot is an Australian sniper in Afghanistan in 2012. Both happened quite a while ago, while Ukraine is cranking out the hits on a much more regular basis.
(https://i.imgur.com/7UFlWvcl.jpeg)
The Russians attempted to take advantage of light fog/rain to assault Adiviika. Didn't quite work out for them.
Ukrainian forces continue making progress on the south bank of the Dniper river, pushing Russian forces 3-8km away (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/19/ukrainian-forces-push-russians-back-on-3-8-km-from-the-dnipro-river-on-the-eastern-bank/). A Russian milblogger noted that one Russian unit "regrouped without a fight", which is just fancy talk for "pre-emptive retreat"
I saw his telegram post. The center of the video is misleadingly focused on two Russian soldiers who were NOT hit and ducked immediately before crawling to safety. However, the third Russian soldier on the right was not so fortunate.
And tangentially related to Ukraine, the Yemeni Houthis (Iran-backed) hijacked a cargo ship in the Red Sea and took its crew of 25 hostage. Ships carrying Ukrainian grain could potentially also be targeted by Houthis.
And technically, if the fighting stopped now, Russia *could* restore its military capabilities within 6 years...on paper.
For example, Russia could maybe - and I'm really stressing the maybe - crank out a maximum of 90-124 tanks per month (https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/how_many_tanks_a_month_russian_uralvagonzavod_can_produce_really-5921.html). That's assuming they build 2 new factories and everything goes according to plan, with no problems. 124x12x6, carry the one, and that's 8784 tanks which gives them way more tanks than they lost. Or 90x12x6, or 6480, which also overshoots but not by much. So yeah, it's possible. But those are stock tanks without vital components, which is a whole 'nother process.
So yeah, Russia could technically maintain the same number of tanks, so Russia's military strength in 2029 would seem on paper to be the same as its 2021 military strength. But man oh man, they absolutely would not have identical capabilities. For starters, Russia has lost a TON of highly experienced, highly competent troops. Those don't just grow on trees. You can't just put some FNGs in Spetsnaz uniforms and call it fully restored. Same with the navy. That Moskva ain't getting replaced anytime soon, if ever. And the airforce. Russia lost a ton of highly skilled pilots and airframes aren't easy to replace, either. And Russia is still very much reliant on Western military components, so unless those sanctions are getting cancelled too, it's not likely that those replacements tanks are going to be nearly as effective as the pre-sanctions ones. And so on, you get the drift.
The point is, the at-a-glance figures don't give realistic view of military strength. For example, Russia has...correction...had a big navy in the Black Sea. Ukraine has basically no navy to speak of except some patrol boats on the Dniper. On paper, Russia should have complete naval supremacy on the Black Sea. But the reality is that they've been driven from their naval HQ in Sevastopol and have severely limited operations due to Neptune missiles, naval drones, and the occasional Stormshadow. Paper and reality tell two very different stories. So yes, Russia could field X units again, but lacking in many important ways from the ones that got their ticket punched.
(https://preview.redd.it/f5wnzr8u1i1c1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=6ba045d3cbd75496671e67a9aaddea394356f1df)
Additionally, when troops die, Russia obfuscates the casualties, so Russian families often don't get closure.
Ukrainian forces on south bank of Dniper river focusing on silencing Russian artillery, not territory gains (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24399)
QuoteBratchuk said the most intense combat in the sector currently is in the vicinity of Krynky. Little terrain is changing hands but bombardments on both sides are intense, and currently, the Ukrainian objective is to establish fire dominance by using the Armed Forces of Ukraine's (AFU), longer-ranged, more accurate artillery to force Russian guns and howitzers away from the Marine positions.
QuoteLight Ukrainian bombardment weapons have transferred to the left bank to help, and Marine patrols and drone raids have crossed Russian lines to hit Kremlin rear area targets, he said.
"The Marines are not only holding, but at present we can speak of counter-battery battles, not just firing from the right bank, but from the left bank as well," Bratchuk said. "Behind-the-lines raids, sabotage, attacks against Russian troops and equipment... It's possible to single out the 501st (Marine) Battalion which (used drones and) destroyed several (Russian) vehicles carrying military materiel along the road Oleshki-Nova Kakhovka."
How did Ukrainian "light" bombardment weapons even get to the southern bank, let alone fire and keep firing with regular supplies? That says a lot about the competence of Russian forces in the vicinity.
At the 7 minute mark 50 second mark...that's a certified Darwin Award moment.
It's right up there with a Russian who survived a Ukrainian kamikaze drone hitting his trench (it was more like a burrow hole than an actual trench) because the drone failed to detonate and his first (and last) thought was to pick up the thing and then throw it a short distance away, and then the drone exploded on impact. Fun fact: downed kamikaze drones are literally UXOs. You don't toss around UXOs if you want to live.
Ukrainians getting work done on a Russian airfield. Afaik, we don't yet know the full extent of the damage, but that whole base looks completely messed up and I'm not sure if anything there escaped destruction.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 21, 2023, 02:38:34 AMUkrainians getting work down on a Russian airfield. Afaik, we don't yet know the full extent of the damage, but that whole base looks completely messed up and I'm not sure if anything there escaped destruction.
They almost look like some old biplane crop-dusters or maybe it is just shadows, I can't really tell...I guess there is a runway around there somewhere. Russians, LOL.
PS Ahh yeah, I can see little men running around, those planes are pretty big.
I read that a Ukranian sniper recently set a new distance record of 2.3 miles. That is crazy. The engineer in me has me wondering how high did he aim due to bullet drop if the trajectory was flat? I would have to know the average bullet speed to determine how much airtime, but that drop has to be huge since Newton says things moving horizontally will fall with an acceleration of 32 ft/s**2 and that bullet may take a good second or two.
For example
50 bmg has a muzzle velocity of about 420 meters per second (1480 feet per second). The time for a . 50 calibre bullet to travel one mile at a constant speed of 1400feet per second is around four seconds. After four seconds, the bullet will have dropped around 256 feet.
Quote from: Cassia on November 21, 2023, 11:24:48 AMThey almost look like some old biplane crop-dusters
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-2
Your eyes are not deceiving you. They are indeed old biplanes, but they're fairly durable and useful. They can take off from and land on bad runways, so naturally, they're a good fit for Russia.
In Ukraine, I'd imagine that they could be used for medevac and transporting much-needed equipment to otherwise out-of-reach areas. Taking them out is probably related to Ukraine's targeting of Russian logistics.
Meanwhile...Ukrainian pilots doing practical F-16 training in Denmark (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-pilots-are-already-flying-f-16s-in-denmark/), the US, and UK. Romania too next year. (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/romania-opens-f-16-pilot-training-hub-nato-allies-ukraine-2023-11-13/)
Russia has done its usual "Western equipment is no problem, we'll destroy it no problem" to "fetch my brown pants" to hastily putting together some sort of plan to deal with it. In this case, trying to more closely integrate radar planes with s-400 anti-air batteries (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/17/russia-integrates-radar-plane-with-s2a-missile-system-eyeing-ukraines-future-western-jets/). The aircraft could theoretically stay within Russian airspace well out of range of Ukrainian anti-air and still pick up F-16s on radar and then feed the location to Russian s-400 batteries. Maybe with no massacre of friendly aircraft this time. Fingers crossed!
It Ain't Over Till The Fat Lady Sings (https://www.newsweek.com/dozens-russian-soldiers-killed-awards-ceremony-donbas-ukraine-1845753)
3 angelic cherubs and 3 infernal imps were seen fighting in the concert hall's rafters mere moments before the missile strike.
Interesting diary entry from a Russian soldier in Kherson region:
He says that the weather is terrible and without fundraising appropriate clothing many would have fallen ill (evidently weather-appropriate clothes are not provided, but must be solicited)
Lack of drone reconnaissance - Russian troops are largely walking blind, risk of Ukrainian ambushes is high.
Lack of artillery support. At best, they fire a couple shots and leave due to fear of Ukrainian counter-battery fire.
Basically no assistance from other units. Many of their unit are green and very scared.
Basically no confidence in the top brass and plans are based on dated information and/or inaccurate assumptions - so it's a garbage-in garbage-out situation.
The only thing they have going right for them is a Wagner fighter is allegedly training them, improving their competency, saving lives (the unit is incurring wounded as opposed to dead), and making arrangements for the evacuation of the whole unit in a dire emergency.
So in general, the situation strongly favors Ukraine, though they need to apply even more pressure.
Unfortunately, the Russians receive adequate clothes through volunteers. If such supplies were somehow disrupted, that would be fantastic for Ukraine.
Also unfortunately, some ex-Wagner fighters have returned to Ukraine and they're very helpful for Russian units. I almost get the impression that they'd be lost without Wagner training. It would help the Ukrainians a lot to eliminate Wagner help, but unfortunately, they're a lot harder to bag than the normal conscripts. Therefore, Ukrainian forces should go out of their way to eliminate Wagner soldiers, prioritizing them like Russian officers.
Commander of Russian landing vessel confirmed dead (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/commander-of-the-russian-landing-vessel-killed-in-crimea/)
He was on the receiving end of the Nov 10th attack on Crimea that sunk two Russian boats.
(https://i.imgur.com/X2gz9ktl.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/CTDsTysl.jpeg)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_200_(code_name)
Ukraine reveals how it targetted the Crimea bridge, thanks Russian yacht owner who filmed the underside (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-thanks-russian-woman-accidentally-helping-crimean-bridge-strike-1846892)
The windows sure are slippery in Moscow...
Also, the Kremlin launched a drone attack on Kyiv with 75 drones, 74 of which were shot down (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-shahed-drones-kyiv-attack-ad3eef50f980a4df023fad78d7bc197d) (in keeping with Russia's similarly suicidal ground war)
Still, they hit a kindergarten and damaged electrical infrastructure, though power was restored quickly. This is likely the start of another winter bombardment of Ukraine's electrical infrastructure. Even though Ukraine has been bolstered by aid and a few more air defense, Ukraine has not fully recovered from the last bombardment. But knowing the enemy's plans and bolstered air defense means the enemy likely will not be able to inflict as much damage this year as last year.
This is becoming a perpetual war. 🙄
Quote from: Unbeliever on November 25, 2023, 04:34:01 PMThis is becoming a perpetual war. 🙄
Not a lot of territory changes hands every day, that's true. But I don't think that means it won't. There are only so many days that any country can run >1k casualties.
Previously, the Russians were at Kyiv's doorstep. Now they have lost half of what they have taken and it's not just Ukrainian positions under bombardment anymore. As an example, the Russians used to have Kherson city and everywhere south of it. Then they lost Kherson city, then they lost territory near the river south of it. There's a clear, albeit slow, progression.
Ukraine simply needs much more aid to liberate its territory on a more pleasant timetable. I note - with some worry - that Russia appears to be receiving more artillery shells from North Korea than Ukraine received from the EU. This has undoubtedly prolonged the war. And unless the western allies show similar boldness, there is a good chance that Russia's allies may be successful in turning this into a frozen conflict.
Speaking of, Ukraine now in full control of the south bank (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russians-have-nothing-similar-to-surovikin-line-on-left-bank-50371231.html) (previously, it was merely several bridgeheads)
The obvious next step for Ukraine is to start constructing bridges and start moving in the heavy armor.
The Russians - for once keenly aware of the glaringly obvious - are attempting to fortify. But they built their Surovikin defensive line through: 1) competent planning 2) a relative lull in hostilities 3) over the course of 9 months. None of those factors are currently at play. Besides, anyone here ever try to dig a hole when the ground is literally frozen? Let's just say that an e-tool isn't going to cut it. Granted, the Russians do have some excavating equipment, but it's definitely in high demand and I'm not sure they'd necessarily prioritize this area or be able to safely use it so close to the front line. Something to keep an eye out for, though.
Ukraine to receive escort ships (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/25/7430338/) to protect grain vessels using its grain corridor along the western edge of the Black Sea
Don't expect heavy cruisers or anything, we're likely talking about fairly small craft. Considering that great emphasis was put on how specific the request was, it's almost certainly produced by a single country which evidently agreed to their use. That's a fairly short list, though it remains a mystery for now.
Still, it's amazing that Ukraine is going to have a warship presence in the Black Sea at all, considering that Russia has been the only one fielding warships in that sea for at least a year.
Mysterious explosions rock Russian facility that produces tank engines (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/blast-reported-at-russian-tank-engine-facility-chelyabinsk-tractor-plant-uraltrak/)
This is the same facility that a Ukrainian soldier called to complain about the quality of the tank engines (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-soldier-russian-tech-support-captured-russian-tank-wouldnt-work-2023-10), which he said frequently sputtered, leaked oil, and had faulty compressors. They assumed he was a Russian soldier, apologized profusely, and promised to correct the issue, after which the Ukrainian identified himself.
Quote"When we take more of these tanks as our trophies, make them better so that it will be easier for us to operate them. Agreed? Thank you very much. Take care of yourselves. Glory to Ukraine," he added.
Moscow region airports close, allegedly due to Ukrainian drones (https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/moscow-airports-forced-close-ukraine-155311375.html)
Fly the unfriendly skies!
Just saw the latest round of combat footage and I have free advice for the invaders:
If a grenade drops near your position, whatever you do, don't try to pick it up and throw it. You won't be fast enough. Trust me. Just run away or roll away. That'll save your bacon. Or at least make the Ukrainians use up more ammo and time.
And of course, just don't go to Ukraine. The jail time is much better, trust me. You really don't want your 15 minutes of fame to be on a drone drop video with people responding with laughing emojis.
Quote from: Hydra009 on November 26, 2023, 04:43:34 PMJust saw the latest round of combat footage and I have free advice for the invaders:
If a grenade drops near your position, whatever you do, don't try to pick it up and throw it. You won't be fast enough. Trust me. Just run away or roll away. That'll save your bacon. Or at least make the Ukrainians use up more ammo and time.
And of course, just don't go to Ukraine. The jail time is much better, trust me. You really don't want your 15 minutes of fame to be on a drone drop video with people responding with laughing emojis.
All of the old techniques like digging a deep foxhole, barbed-wire, mines and using camo netting are rendered useless by sharp-eyed or infrared drones. They may actually hurt you instead of help. If a bomb ends up in your foxhole you are done for. Jamming devices are what you need.
Quote from: Cassia on November 26, 2023, 08:30:47 PMJamming devices are what you need.
Yep. There's footage from only a few days ago of a Ukrainian soldier with a mobile drone jammer walking through a field and pointing out a bunch of Russian drones that had fallen into the field, presumably due to being jammed.
Another loooong video breaking down the latest action from a dispassionate, bean-counter approach (said with genuine appreciation)
I want to highlight the 41min50sec mark as particularly noteworthy - the losses around Avdiivka are overwhelmingly in Ukraine's favor.
Also, this battle gave fact-checkers a change to test to see if Ukraine was lying/exaggerating Russian losses. Ukrainian estimates are of course higher than what's visually confirmed - that's to be expected because obviously, not every kill is photographed/geotagged - but Ukrainian claims do correlate very closely with visually confirmed losses. So, when the Ukrainians say that they blew up more tanks today than yesterday we can confirm that more tanks were indeed blown up. So the Ukrainian claims are overall pretty plausible.
Contrast that with Russian claims that vary from outlandish to physically impossible, and I think we can safely say that the Ukrainian loss count is much more accurate than the Russian one.
Devastating storm hits eastern Europe (https://apnews.com/article/russia-crimea-weather-storm-black-sea-0fbd7c3f5ae5d883730697c1919ffa73)
It hit Crimea especially hard, half a million residents without power.
Russian students asked to donate vapes to harvest computer chips for drones (https://news.yahoo.com/russian-students-being-asked-donate-130554490.html)
I honestly can't tell if this is genius or stupid. It certainly highlights a significant chip shortage, though that isn't a new thing.
I was unaware that they even have vapes over there. 🤔
Yes, but only yak dung flavors from Siberia. 😁
Can you get high on yak dung? 😵
Asphyxiated, maybe. Oxygen deprivation is a kind of "high"(?).Not into that.
Yeah, doesn't sound like much fun. 😵💀
Mysterious explosion in occupied Ukraine kills at least five high-ranking invaders (https://kyivindependent.com/resistance-5-high-ranking-russian-officials-killed-in-strike-on-occupied-kherson-oblast/)
QuoteRussian occupation authorities were reportedly meeting in the building when the attack took place, the center wrote on its Telegram channel, citing information from local residents.
QuotePhotographs published by the center show what appears to be a damaged administrative building flying a Russian flag.
I wonder how anyone knew they were there. 🤔
Probably the same people in charge of Opsec.
Despite Republican hesitance on Ukraine aid, red states reap economic benefits (https://kyivindependent.com/despite-republican-hesitance-on-ukraine-aid-us-defense-contractors-are-reaping-economic-benefits-particularly-red-states/)
QuoteIn a recent op-ed by Marc Thiessen, a fellow at the center-right think tank, the American Enterprise Institute, argued that it is "the best-kept secret" of the entire $68 billion U.S. endeavor to support Ukraine.
Citing one analyst, he said that as much as 90% of the money allocated by the U.S. for military aid for Ukraine has been spent domestically.
QuoteIn total, 31 states are producing weapons or military equipment for Ukraine, using money earmarked by Congress.
QuoteAlthough the DoD's estimates are not as striking as the unnamed analyst cited by Thiessen, they still show that the U.S. has received more than $27 billion in investments from Washington's military aid for Ukraine.
In addition, the funds have also provided $3.3 billion in direct industrial investments to improve the capacity of the domestic defense industry across the U.S.
GoRU talking points have attempted to paint Ukrainian aid as if the US were just dumping piles of money on Ukraine or wiring funds to Zelenskyy directly, which obviously is not true, but plays surprisingly well with gullible idiots, aka the base.
The reality is that most of these funds go to the defense industry to make stuff which then gets sent to Ukraine.
(https://preview.redd.it/a2kxabt58f3c1.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=ed6323c7c247a76580d6e4be4ebd1649ba572e57)
Senior Russian general 'killed by one of Putin's own landmines' in Ukraine (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-vladimir-zavadsky-killed-ukraine-landmine-blast-b2455928.html)
QuoteRussia may have lost as many as six high-ranking officers in Ukraine in just one week following reports a senior general was killed by a landmine placed by his own side.
QuoteThe elite military academy where Zavadsky studied, the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School, also announced his death in a social media post, although that has now been deleted.
Moscow...combined arms?? What a strange name.
QuoteAccording to the Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, which claims to have ties to Russian security services, the general died in a blast on a landmine placed by Vladimir Putin's own forces to target Ukrainian reconnaissance groups.
Various telegram channels allege that he was killed by a landmine placed by another Russian unit, which bizarrely opted to not share that very important information with other Russian units (I guess "need to know" doesn't translate well in Russian)
Ukrainian spy chief's wife recovering from poisoning (https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/politics/wife-of-ukraines-top-military-intelligence-hospitalized/index.html)
QuoteMarianna Budanova is the wife of Kyrylo Budanov, whose military intelligence agency GUR has been deeply involved in Ukraine's efforts to oust Russia from its territory, and western officials have been immediately suspicious that Russian agents may have paid off a staff member to carry out the poisoning.
QuoteThe seriousness of Budanova's condition was not immediately apparent. According to the GUR representative, she has been hospitalized for a week and had felt poorly for some time prior to being hospitalized. A source with Defense Intelligence told CNN, on the condition of anonymity because the information has not been made public, Budanova tested positive for arsenic and mercury.
Quote"It would be premature for me to make any conclusions, but when you fight such a vicious enemy as Russia, you have to be ready for anything, and Russia has proven itself many times before as a country that uses poison as a mean to kill its opponents and its enemies," Kuleba told Burnett.
Reportedly, Russia has gone to great lengths to strike at Ukrainian military intelligence in general and Budanov in particular, so this sort of thing is not very surprising.
(https://i.imgur.com/Kzk03jAl.jpeg)
And sometimes, they get casualties before they even reach Ukraine:
(https://i.imgur.com/3a0s3iE.jpegj)
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 01, 2023, 08:50:19 AMAnd sometimes, they get casualties before they even reach Ukraine:
(https://i.imgur.com/3a0s3iE.jpegj)
u r delusional.
Quote from: SoldierofFortune on December 01, 2023, 09:15:48 AMu r delusional.
Fascinating hot take, but unlike you, I can cite my sources:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/30/12-russian-soldiers-killed-in-explosion-accident-at-training-facility-reports-a83274
By all accounts the Russians have been getting hammered with huge losses around Avdiika. They really want that shell of a town badly as the long winter begins to set in.
Yes, the Russians are taking huge losses, but unfortunately it does allow Russia to gain ground, at least temporarily, and this is more important to Putin.
The Russians have claimed the capture of Marinka (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Marinka_(2022%E2%80%93present)), a small town that was fully evacuated about a year ago and has seen fierce fighting for months which has leveled every building. I'm not really sure why the Russians would want ruined land considering that they already have plenty of it, but they have ruined Marinka now, or most of it anyway.
The Russians also shot and killed two Ukrainian soldiers who were surrendering, obviously unarmed, hands over their heads. Just another example of warcrime bingo and the inherent lawlessness and rampant cruelty of Putin's forces.
But Russia is not truly a lawless place - the authoritarian regime has criminalized LGBT "activism" (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/30/lgbt-russia-movement-extremist-banned/) which as you might guess, is defined very nebulously. Very recently, Russian police have begun raiding places where LGBT people congregate and while afaik, there have not yet been any arrests, the clear intent is one of intimidation and sending a signal that LGBT people can no longer safely congregate/organize. This sets the stage for further repression in the future.
Ukraine creates new electronic warfare systems (https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukraine-develops-new-electromagnetic-warfare-systems/)
QuoteOne of these systems is designed to combat all types of Russian drones, suppress satellite navigation signals, and create a variety of false signals, according to Havryliuk.
Another two electromagnetic systems are currently being tested in the Defense Ministry to counter Russian Lancet and FPV drones
Surrounded by the enemy, a Ukrainian soldier called in artillery to his own position and lived to tell the tale (https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/01/europe/ukrainian-soldier-survival-bakhmut-intl-hnk/index.html)
QuoteFor the next three days Serhii hid in his dugout surrounded by the enemy. Each hour Russian troops came closer and closer to his position. He could hear their voices and knew their plan.
Believing that he would not survive, Serhii contacted his commander on the radio and whispered to him the coordinates of the enemy - essentially calling in artillery strikes on his very own position.
QuoteAt one point, Serhii thought his time was up when a Russian soldier climbed into his dugout. The soldier asked Serhii where he was from and the Ukrainian replied in Russian that he had a concussion and asked for water. The Russian soldier did not give him water but crawled out of the trench, apparently still unaware Serhii was Ukrainian.
"I still can't understand how he didn't realize I was from the Ukrainian armed forces. I was wearing a Ukrainian uniform. My pants were in pixels. Yes, they were dirty. But it was obvious that the boots were Ukrainian," Serhii recalled.
When I first saw the word "dugout" I thought: "they use canoes in warfare?"
🤣
Ukraine blows up 2 railway connections between Russia and China (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-security-service-blew-up-main-railway-connection-between-russia-china/)
QuoteThe SBU set off several explosions inside the Severomuysky tunnel of the Baikal-Amur highway in Buryatia, located some 6,000 kilometers east of Ukraine, a senior Ukrainian official with direct knowledge of the operation told POLITICO.
"This is the only serious railway connection between the Russian Federation and China. And currently, this route, which Russia uses, including for military supplies, is paralyzed," the official said.
They even hit the alternative route:
QuoteThe first cargo train exploded directly in the Severomuysky tunnel.
To continue transportation, the Russians began to use the detour route through the so-called Devil's Bridge — a 35-meter high viaduct structure, which is part of the Trans-Siberian Railway. At that point, SBU saboteurs struck again.
"When the train was passing over this 35-meter high bridge, the explosive devices embedded in it went off," the same official added.
Quote"Russian special services should get used to the fact that our people are everywhere. Even in distant Buryatia," the Ukrainian official warned.
This guy was a LOT smarter than that Wagnerite, who ultimately died while this guy lived.
There's also pretty graphic footage of a Russian soldier who stole Ukrainian speakers to entertain himself (he lamented not being able to take a washing machine) to *spoilers* a pretty grisly end. Moral of the story - if you go to Ukraine, do so as a guest, not a pest. Because they're very, very good at ridding themselves of pests.
As bad as things are for Ukrainian defenders - they shoulder a lot of hardship and loss - it's still miles better than what the Russians go through.
The video of Russian soldiers murdering 2 surrendered Ukrainians was confirmed as authentic by the Ukrainian military (https://kyivindependent.com/military-confirms-russian-troops-executed-2-ukrainian-pows-in-donetsk-oblast/)
It's small comfort that the murderers were themselves killed in combat afterwards.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 03, 2023, 10:02:48 AMThe video of Russian soldiers murdering 2 surrendered Ukrainians was confirmed as authentic by the Ukrainian military (https://kyivindependent.com/military-confirms-russian-troops-executed-2-ukrainian-pows-in-donetsk-oblast/)
It's small comfort that the murderers were themselves killed in combat afterwards.
It is a stupid move, why would any Ukranian give up now?
Quote from: Cassia on December 03, 2023, 10:28:00 AMIt is a stupid move, why would any Ukranian give up now?
Yeah, it only motivates them to fight harder and if cornered, go out in a blaze of glory rather than risk capture. And this sort of casual cruelty only embitters the rest of the world against Russia.
Speaking of: cat-torturing mobnik gets eliminated (https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-news/news-revenge-for-kuzia-ukrainian-armed-forces-eliminate-occupant-who-tortured-a-cat-to-death-02-12-2023.html)
They really do send the scum of the Earth off to die. I would be perfectly happy with this arrangement if only they didn't try to kill good people in the process.
Russia stops prisoner exchange because it wants Ukrainian families to think the Ukrainian military has abandoned their loved ones (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-stops-pow-swaps-wants-families-to-blame-ukraine-official-2023-12)
There hasn't been a prisoner exchange since August.
Prisoner exchanges have been a regular thing in this war because Russia amassed a large amount of Ukrainian POWs early in the war and because the Ukrainians typically offer favorable exchange rates. One notable exchange was a Pro-Putin oligarch in exchange for Avoz POWs (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/ukrainian-putin-ally-viktor-medvedchuk-exchanged-for-200-azov-battalion-fighters-zelenskiy-says)
Since then, Putin has likely decided that it's worth it to abandon his own soldiers in captivity in order to inflict psychological distress on Ukrainian families (once again, I am reminded of what a small, petty, and cruel man he truly is, in stark contrast to his "manly" public persona)
This move may be part of a recent concerted effort by Russia to sow uncertainty and discord (https://svidomi.in.ua/en/page/russia-spends-15-billion-on-the-maidan-3-disinformation-campaign-what-other-campaigns-has-russia-launched-recently) among Ukrainians to hamper its war effort and meddle with its upcoming election.
Ukrainian resistance blew up a refueling station and eliminated invaders there (https://news.yahoo.com/military-intelligence-resistance-blow-russian-102101080.html)
QuoteUkrainian resistance forces blew up a gas station used by Russian occupation forces to refuel military equipment in Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on Dec. 1, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) reported on Dec. 2.
The explosion damaged military equipment and killed several Russian military personnel, the HUR said.
Mysterious fire engulfs Moscow war factory (https://nitter.net/PStyle0ne1/status/1731418351912571317) 🔥🔥🔥 будмо!
Been a while since I covered Allied aid, but that's just as important as the boots on the ground:
South Korea indirectly supplied more aid than all of Europe combined (https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231205000300315) Way to focus the payload, SK!
QuoteSouth Korean law prohibits providing weapons to war zones, but U.S. officials sought to persuade Seoul to provide munitions, estimating that about 330,000 155-mm shells could be transferred by air and sea within 41 days from Korea, according to the WP.
"Senior administration officials had been speaking with counterparts in Seoul, who were receptive as long as the provision was indirect," the WP reported. "The shells began to flow at the beginning of the year, eventually making South Korea a larger supplier of artillery ammunition for Ukraine than all European nations combined."
It did not specify the exact amount of shells that South Korea provided.
The pacifist equivalent of having a cheat day, LOL. Whatever works, I guess.
And on a more serious note, EU countries produced a little over 300k shells iirc, so even though they didn't give an exact figure, I guesstimate that South Korea's figure is just slightly more than that, somewhere between 300k and 400k.
Germany delivers 8th aid package to Ukraine (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-announces-military-aid-package-011700020.html)
I know, 3,840 artillery shells isn't exactly a lot, especially compared to those 6-digit figures above. But every little bit helps. And one aid package that isn't little is those 2 IRIS-T air defense Germany promised for this winter, bringing the total number of IRIS-T in Ukraine up to five soon.
Germany also doubled its overall Ukrainian aid from $4.25 billion USD to $8.5 billion next year (https://english.nv.ua/nation/germany-to-double-military-aid-to-war-in-ukraine-50367871.html) So expect some beefy aid packages in the future!
Additionally, the German arms company Rheinmetall will produce and provide Ukraine with approximately 40,000 shells next year (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/rheinmetall-to-supply-ukraine-with-artillery-ammunition-for-over-e140-million/)
Switzerland freezes $8.8 billion USD worth of Russian assets (https://www.rferl.org/a/switzerland-freezes-billions-russian-assets/32710866.html)
That's a great first step, but imho, the Ukrainians desperately need the equipment that sort of money can purchase, so if Switzerland - and other countries with frozen Russian assets - could find a way to put that money to use to aid Ukraine, that would be enormously helpful.
Feeling it now? Poland sends 18 Krab howitzers to Ukraine, more to come (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/04/poland-sends-18-krab-self-propelled-howitzers-to-ukraine-more-to-come/).
The US...well...things are not great right now (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/us/politics/us-congress-ukraine.html) but hopefully we'll put something together soon. We pressured 3 countries to stop letting Russia evade oil sanctions (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-allies-pressure-liberia-marshall-islands-panama-over-russia-oil-sanctions-2023-12-02/), which technically counts as something.
After brutal storm, Crimea defenses severely degraded (https://news.yahoo.com/two-weeks-russia-rebuild-defenses-203500882.html)
QuoteYusov confirmed that the storm damaged barriers protecting the bridge, and according to him, the enemy's defensive structures in occupied Sevastopol also suffered serious degradation.
"Of course, the enemy quite rightly fears that the Ukrainian Defense Forces will take advantage of this," he said.
Naturally...Ukrainian drones strike targets in Crimea (https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraine-hits-several-russian-military-facilities-in-occupied-crimea/)
They hit an oil terminal and fuel trucks, causing signifacnt damage to Russian logistics. They also hit parked helicopters, a radar complex, and the control system of anti-air batteries. As is typical for Crimea beach parties so close to the bridge, the Kerch bridge temporarily closed. I'm looking forward to the day it permanently closes.
Mysterious explosion rips through Russian military HQ in Melitopol (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/12/7428422/)
QuoteThe attack on the headquarters took place during a meeting of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) and National Guard (Rosgvardiya) officers.
Ukrainian Intelligence characterizes it as "an act of revenge committed by representatives of the local resistance movement".
QuoteThe DIU said at least three Rosgvardia officers were killed in the explosion at their headquarters. The information on other Russian losses is being gathered.
(https://i.imgur.com/U4vRQFxl.jpeg)
When Russians were asked what they'd ask Putin if given the chance, the top question was "when will the war end?" (https://news.yahoo.com/poll-russians-most-interested-asking-115415797.html)
QuoteIf given the chance to ask President Vladimir Putin any question, 21% of Russians would ask him when the invasion of Ukraine will end, according to a poll published by the Levada Center, a Moscow-based independent polling organization, on Dec. 5.
Other popular questions involved wages/pensions/living standards and the future of Russia including when Putin will step down (spoiler: when he dies)
Interestingly, the top response isn't to ask a question at all - 30% wouldn't ask Putin anything or wouldn't know what to ask.
Russian propagandist Illia Kyva found dead from mysterious gunshot wounds in Moscow region (https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/former-ukrainian-mp-traitor-illia-183000681.html)
Can't say I'm surprised. This guy was born in Ukraine but turned traitor and joined Team Russia (bold strategy, Cotton) and funnily enough, wrote a piece (of merde) fervently wishing for Zelenskyy's death as is the new national pasttime in Russia. Man, these people are so dictator-whipped, it's unreal. It's also a bit strange and very telling that war-torn Ukraine is still a nicer place to live than Russia. Ukraine may or may not ultimately be successful in all their war objectives, but the Russians have already lost their country big time. China rightly (and largely privately now) fears a second Mao, but Russia already has a second Stalin.
Tangent aside, this guy was on a pack of Ukrainian Most Wanted playing cards (like those Iraqi playing cards (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Most-wanted_Iraqi_playing_cards)) and he was the ten of hearts. Wagner head Prigozhin was the nine of hearts, so it looks like the SBU is well on their way to building the ultimate dead man's hand. Sorry, I couldn't resist the joke!
Himars o'clock: Himars shell destroys Russian Mi-8 helicopter (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/himars-hits-russian-helicopter-in-kharkiv-region/)
QuoteThe shell fell near the helicopter, and its debris likely caused significant damage to the helicopter.
From the video, it was more or less spot on. Potato, potatoe - the point is that everything inside is tomato.
(https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/656fc954988eb7b3734a9309/A-Russian-truck-wearing-ERA-/0x0.jpg?format=jpg&crop=1280,853,x0,y48,safe&width=960)
I saw this ERA-strapped Russian truck on Telegram and honestly thought it was a joke and far too outlandish to be true. I know I say that a lot, but this one was waaay too stupid to be real, like a parody or something. But apparently it's real (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/05/congratulations-russian-army-youve-invented-a-self-exploding-truck/?sh=4e67d4356f1f).
How it works is actually quite simple: Impact -> Newton's Third Law -> Darwin Awards all around
The Ukrainians have also been showing photos of pre-WWII Russian "armored" trucks (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23120) (I think I saw one of those in an Indiana Jones film) and Kamaz trucks with wood beams all over them for internet ridicule, commenting that the added wood helps them burn longer and hotter.
Granted, the Ukrainians notably went a bit overboard with ERA as well, though at least that was on an actual tank. Also, they've fielded some odd technicals. It could be a fever dream, but I swear I saw a sports car with a rocket launcher on the back, which is all sorts of wrong but could still *technically* get the job done, which is more than I can say for a lot of Russian vehicles where the turret can barely even move or the radio won't work because of a big ol' BBQ grill was mounted on top or it catastrophically detonates so hard that it could be confused with a space launch.
(https://i.imgur.com/hAVNUMql.jpeg)
Ukraine receives 4 patrol boats from France (https://air--cosmos-com.translate.goog/article/l-ukraine-receptionne-4-patrouilleurs-produits-en-france-68037?_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
The latest batch of verified equipment losses (https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16111) have Russia losing quite a bit more than Ukraine
Destroyed
Russia: 3x surveillance/comm equipment, 4x artillery, 2x tanks (T-80B and unknown tank), 7x IFVs, 1x Truck, 1x civilian car (grand total of 18, weighted towards high-value targets)
Ukraine: 1x comm equipment, 1x artillery (old soviet artillery (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S3_Akatsiya)), 3x civilian cars/trucks (grand total of 5, weighted towards low-value targets)
Damaged
Russia: 1x air defense, 1x comm tower, 2x tanks (T-72 and unknown tank), 4x IFVs, 13x trucks, 1x civilian car/truck, 2x unknown (grand total of 24, moderate-high value)
Ukraine: 1x comm tower, 2x boats, 1x artillery (British howitzer), 2x tanks (T-72, T-64), 1x IFV, 1x APC, 1x truck, 3x civilian car/truck (grand total of 12, moderate value)
All in all, Russia clearly suffered much more serious losses, losing about 3 times as much as Ukraine in the destroyed category and twice as much in the damaged category. Not only did they lose much more high-value equipment, a larger proportion of their losses were totally destroyed, not merely damaged.
Both sides lost a lot of defenseless equipment like cars and trucks - largely due to enemy FPV drones - underscoring that this is an extremely drone-centric war and a lot of effort is put in by both sides to neutralize enemy logistics.
The standstill at the Polish border (organized by surprise surprise, pro-Putin far-right (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/23/the-russian-trace-in-the-polish-trucker-border-blockade/)) appears to losing effectiveness as Ukraine simply loads the otherwise stalled cargo onto trains (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-use-trains-move-blocked-lorries-across-polish-border-2023-12-07/) to speed it to its destination. When I see fiascos like this, I'm reminded of the quote: "lead, follow, or get out of the way!"
Special brew just for you: Partisans say they killed at least 24 Russian soldiers with poisoned vodka (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-partisans-claim-killed-24-russia-soldiers-arsenic-in-vodka-2023-12)
24 dead, 11 more in need of hospital care. Pretty good haul for that sort of thing. And these are just civilians fighting back. Arsenic and strychnine - oof. Quite a potent mix.
I'm honestly a little surprised that this keeps happening. This is like stepping on the same rake over and over. Just a month or so ago, a Russian mobnik was complaining that basically everything in or near stores in Ukraine is poisoned or booby trapped. I thought the stress was getting to him and he was getting a little paranoid. Though I guess it's not paranoia if they really are out to get you. Though the circumstances of the poisoning beggars belief:
Quote"two nice girls" tricked the unit in Simferopol, Crimea, into drinking vodka with huge doses of arsenic and strychnine in the bottles, per the Kyiv Post translation.
Now, I'm no Hans Landa, but I'm pretty sure that if Russians soldiers find "nice" people anywhere in Russian-occupied territory, it is 100% not genuine. And if they come bearing gifts, that's kind of a dead giveaway that something is up. Just my two rubles.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 08, 2023, 02:18:33 AMSpecial brew just for you: Partisans say they killed at least 24 Russian soldiers with poisoned vodka (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-partisans-claim-killed-24-russia-soldiers-arsenic-in-vodka-2023-12)
24 dead, 11 more in need of hospital care. Pretty good haul for that sort of thing. And these are just civilians fighting back. Arsenic and strychnine - oof. Quite a potent mix.
I'm honestly a little surprised that this keeps happening. This is like stepping on the same rake over and over. Just a month or so ago, a Russian mobnik was complaining that basically everything in or near stores in Ukraine is poisoned or booby trapped. I thought the stress was getting to him and he was getting a little paranoid. Though I guess it's not paranoia if they really are out to get you. Though the circumstances of the poisoning beggars belief:
Now, I'm no Hans Landa, but I'm pretty sure that if Russians soldiers find "nice" people anywhere in Russian-occupied territory, it is 100% not genuine. And if they come bearing gifts, that's kind of a dead giveaway that something is up. Just my two rubles.
And that's just a tiny bit extra because two rubles is now worth 2.2 cents. A ruble was worth about 43 cents back in 2008, so Putin's Russia is not exactly a great investment, even with all those natural resources such a lithium and oil. Hard to imagine how they could frig-up that advantage up so badly.
Bulgarian legislature overrides the President's veto, Bulgaria will supply Ukraine with about 100 APCs after all (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/bulgarian-mps-override-veto-approve-armored-carrier-transfer-to-ukraine/)
QuoteThe Soviet-era armored personnel carriers, which were to be handed over to Ukraine, were purchased several decades ago. The vehicles were not used, and the Bulgarian Interior Ministry spent money on their storage.
Sounds like a win-win. I wonder why the President was against it. Here we go, he says that "the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the needs of the Border Police and firefighters of the country were not taken into account." Firefighter APCs, uh huh. Let me just...found it (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/14/pro-russia-rumen-radev-wins-bulgarian-presidency).
QuoteUnder Bulgaria's constitution, the president's job is mostly ceremonial, but whoever holds the post can influence policy, veto legislation and sign international treaties.
Interesting...
Ukraine receives its first Luna drone from Germany (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-received-the-first-luna-ng-unmanned-aerial-system/)
What is a Luna drone, you ask. Well, the article sums it up quite nicely. Seriously, I wish American media was as concise yet informative and digestible by the average person. Yet another reason why I usually link Ukrainian media - obviously, they have the scoop first - but also because they're actually pretty good at what they do.
But in case of link rot, here's my summary: the Luna drone is a top-tier reconnaissance drone. Stays in the air up to 12 hours. Works even in adverse weather conditions. If that isn't enough, it can be fitted with electronic warfare. And another version is more combat-oriented, able to launch its own drones (we're not legally allowed to call them Fangs), which I assume would be small kamikaze drones. So good luck trying to get that convoy through Avdiivka.
Speaking of Avdiivka, Russians use infantry against tanks (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/08/russian-troops-are-attacking-avdiivka-on-foot-ukrainian-tanks-are-waiting-for-them/?sh=1870d3d62f5b)
I guess The Art of War never got a Russian translation, because that sure ain't using your strengths against your opponents weaknesses. It's more like trying to punch a door in and being unsuccessful and then punching it harder and harder. It *might* work, maybe. You also might break your fist. Or you might get your arm stuck in the resulting hole. But it's technically "productive" so I guess that's enough to please the dictator.
I'm making light, but the situation is actually quite dire there for both sides. The map in particular is quite scary and appears like a second Bakhmut. It's also dragging on and on, which generally does not favor the attacker. Will Ukraine ultimately hold on? I dunno. Hopefully.
The Russians have been varying their tactics a lot, which is abnormally clever for them. Like the Ukrainians, they figured out that huge armored convoys are sitting ducks and opted more for dismounted infantry backed up by drones, artillery, and anti-tank guns. Unlike the Ukrainians, they can't quite get it to gel together properly and end up getting killed in droves.
QuoteAccording to the U.K. Defense Ministry, the Kremlin's decision to make a go at Avdiivka resulted in a 90-percent increase in Russian losses across the 600-mile front line.
But "Russian forces may be suffering losses along the entire front in Ukraine at a rate close to the rate at which Russia is currently generating new forces," the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. concluded.
Losing nearly as many troops as you recruit is an absolutely insane strategy for like a dozen different reasons. Jeez, no wonder their morale is in the toilet and they can't rotate troops. And it gives the Ukrainian soldiers a ton of battlefield experience and simultaneously deprives Russian forces of it. Dead men can't learn, after all. Have fun trading in moderately skilled/experienced troops for FNGs who have to trained up from complete newbie status up to reasonably competent assault forces only to feed them to the Ukrainian woodchipper and repeat the whole process over again and again. Exhausting!
Massive fire breaks out in Russian-occupied Makiivka after explosion (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/massive-fire-breaks-out-in-russian-occupied-makiivka-after-explosion/) There are secondary fires as well.
This is reminiscent of the strike about 5 months ago that reportedly killed over a hundred Russian troops.
Russian forces tried to assault the Ukrainian positions just south of the Dniper river (https://au.news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-marines-fend-off-russian-164100271.html)
They failed, spectacularly.
There's a lot of footage of burning Russian tanks and APCs. One Russian soldier - the sole survivor of his unit - managed to film the carnage. Another Russian soldier filmed his trench and very few of its inhabitants were alive.
It appears that Ukraine once again inflicted crushing losses on the Russians to maintain its own positions.
Turncloak Con: Orban and Republicans to have closed door meeting on how to best ensure Russian victory (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/10/hungary-viktor-orban-republicans-ukraine-aid)
Three guesses as to why they want to keep you in the dark about what they're scheming to do.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 10, 2023, 02:21:05 PMTurncloak Con: Orban and Republicans to have closed door meeting on how to best ensure Russian victory (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/10/hungary-viktor-orban-republicans-ukraine-aid)
Three guesses as to why they want to keep you in the dark about what they're scheming to do.
(https://images.immediate.co.uk/production/volatile/sites/7/2018/09/FF87D8_LEAD-e23f88d.jpg?quality=90&resize=980,654)
They want to treat us like mushrooms - keep us in the dark and feed us shit.
Polish border partially unblocked (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-blockade-at-one-of-poland-ukraine-border-crossings-lifted/)
One border station out of four which have been blocked.
UK and Norway to work to improve Ukraine's naval ability (https://news.yahoo.com/uk-norway-lead-naval-coalition-104200864.html)
Norway tranferred two mineclearing vessels to Ukraine.
Update: Polish border blocked again (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/11/7432620/)
About 4 hours after the border station was unblocked, it got blocked again by a truck which "suffered malfunction" in such a way as to (in)conveniently block all lanes.
People in Ukraine are dying because of this.
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/NKHqjXxFl4rC3Hiz0p3.Mg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MQ--/https:/media.zenfs.com/en/reuters.com/86cb31122357ba971a2c7f4ad6b8cc2d)
Zelenskyy and Orban having a frank discussion in Argentina (they were both there to welcome the incoming President (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei), a "colorful" political personality who nonetheless has pledged to support Ukraine)
And Putin/Orban/GQP says Zelenskyy isn't a man of peace. Orban left unharmed after all the shit he's been pulling. Zelenskyy is a much more peaceful and diplomatic person than most people would be in his shoes.
"Give me one reason why Ukraine shouldn't be in the EU" (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/13/7432895/)
After an entirely unnecessary amount of drama, the blocked Ukraine-Polish border station has once again become unblocked (https://kyivindependent.com/media-polish-border-crossing-unblocked-2/) and this time, it seems like it's staying open, though it'll take about 32 hours to finally clear all the traffic that has built up while it was blocked.
Norway announces $1.8 billion aid package for Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3799579-norwegian-pm-announces-18b-in-aid-to-ukraine.html)
QuoteStoere added that Norway is trying to strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure by providing air defense equipment and is increasing funding for the defense industry with European partners to produce more ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Denmark announces $1 billion aid package for Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/13/7432913/)
The package will reportedly include ammunition, tanks and drones, but the specifics will be posted tomorrow.
In terrible news (I hate reporting on bad news, but it's important to record such news and make people aware of it, lest it be forgotten)
Russia decided to use Ukrainian PoWs as human shields (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25466)
Apparently they cancelled the prisoner exchanges with purpose. :(
Every bit of Russian terrorism and assassination and torture and assorted war crimes should be remembered when Russia eventually seeks to normalize trade relations with the West.
It seems the Russian people are just about fed up with Putin. They were letting him know it at the annual media circus.
Quote from: Unbeliever on December 14, 2023, 08:07:47 PMIt seems the Russian people are just about fed up with Putin. They were letting him know it at the annual media circus.
You're referring to the criticism via text messages shown to Mad Vlad himself (https://news.yahoo.com/don-t-run-president-text-122627828.html)?
As bad as things are for Ukraine, Russia is facing problems of its own and its structure - one-man rule - is inherently weaker. All that needs to happen for Putin's Russia to fall apart is a health crisis or a falling out with the oligarchs or some of its military to start a thunder run to Moscow. But what are the odds of that?
Putin also inadvertently admitted to over 300k military losses (https://sg.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-war-live-dozens-041917024.html), though I'm currently at a loss as to how that figure was derived from Putin's words.
QuoteThe announcement came after Vladimir Putin inadvertently admitted that more than 300,000 Russian soldiers have died or been heavily wounded in the ongoing war. The figures are in stark contrast to the last death toll offered by the Kremlin, which suggested less than 6,000 troops in Ukraine had been killed.
During his first news conference since the full-scale invasion, he suggested that 244,000 Russians had been mobilised, before adding that 486,000 had volunteered to fight. He then proceeded to say that 617,000 Russians were fighting in Ukraine.
This figure roughly aligns with US estimates that were declassified earlier this week, which suggested that Russia had suffered 315,000 dead and injured troops in Ukraine. But the last time the Kremlin offered an estimate of the death toll was September 2022, in which they said only 5,937 soldiers had been killed.
Additionally, Russia's civilian air fleet appears to be struggling (https://news.yahoo.com/media-russian-plane-carrying-passengers-111955978.html), with much more incidents than normal, including one with a civilian plane carrying radioactive material. Russia has publicly reported a decrease in incidents while independent sources say the opposite (https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/12/13/russian-aviation-authority-says-incidents-in-russia-have-decreased-while-independent-and-foreign-media-report-the-opposite) (alternative facts) This after Russia complained to the UN back in October that sanctions to its air fleet "jeopardized the safety of international civil aviation.". So which is it? Can't have it both ways.
Denys thinks that the critical messages Putin received were deliberate - a way to "blow off steam" from the populace, a sort of controlled opposition, if you will. And that tactic does happen in Russia - a good example are the nationalists who were allowed to express some degree of criticism of the war while at the same time arguing for escalation and being generally supportive of Putin. This leash was tightened significantly following Prigozhin's march on Moscow and the simple explanation for why Igor Girkin was jailed is that he strayed too far from allowed criticism into disallowed criticism.
Most messages were of course positive towards Putin's agenda and sprinkling in a couple of negative ones here and there might be a handy way to "stick a toe in the water" prior to a policy change (specifically, a much larger mobilization after the election). It could also serve as a way to appear more legitimate by reporting a 90ish% approval rather than the mythical 100% like they do in North Korea. Who knows.
What Denys is 100% right about is that the aid fiasco with the Republicans in the USA. It is indeed a political game to them and whether or not they really care about how it affects Ukrainians is an ongoing topic of concern and speculation.
(https://i.imgur.com/2h4yAxRl.jpeg)
Lately, it's been a tossup between "quiet" days of 800ish infantry losses and a dozen or so of all vehicle types or busy days of over 1000 infantry losses and dozens of vehicle losses. Yesterday was definitely a busy day.
Wow, I 'accidentally' saw Russians doing a "meat assault". Guess I will be skipping lunch today. I have the morbid curiosity of a teenage goth girl somedays.
After the Polish border was unblocked, the Slovakia border unblocks as well (https://kyivindependent.com/slovak-truckers-say-they-have-ended-ukraine-border-blockade/)
Quote from: Cassia on December 15, 2023, 10:23:36 AMWow, I 'accidentally' saw Russians doing a "meat assault". Guess I will be skipping lunch today. I have the morbid curiosity of a teenage goth girl somedays.
Yeah, it's tough viewing. I'm torn between morbid curiosity and needing to know the actual situation on the ground versus absolute disgust and unease. Definitely not for the faint of heart or stomach.
I will say this, Ukrainian drone drops have gotten markedly deadlier. Last year, Russian troops would try to walk it off and it was ambiguous as to whether ot not they'd pull through. This year, it's more of a one-and-done situation. Matchbox funeral, a lot of the time.
Putin exaggerates number of troops in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-putin-exaggerates-russian-numbers-in-ukraine/)
Putin claimed that Russia has a total of 617,000 troops in Ukraine, while Ukrainian Intelligence says it's more like 450,000.
Quote"The enemy is giving distorted data to increase information pressure on our country," Yusov said on television, saying the messaging may be aimed to "scare someone abroad" or motivate the domestic population.
QuoteThe only way that Putin's numbers would be realistic is if they included killed soldiers, he added
Quote🇫🇷 Macron said that Orban personally promised him not to block Ukraine's accession to the EU if it fulfills all the conditions of the European Commission.
The French president also expressed hope that the Hungarian prime minister would not "take Europe hostage" in the next stages of negotiations with Ukraine.
(https://cropper.watch.aetnd.com/cdn.watch.aetnd.com/sites/5/2017/11/CharlieBrownLucyFootball.jpg?w=548)
Good grief.
Also Macron: (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/15/eu-emmanuel-macron-viktor-orban-ukraine-aid)
Quote⚡️ Macron confident EU can fund Ukraine even without Orban.
The EU should be able to financially support Ukraine even if Hungary continues obstructing the assistance, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Dec. 15, The Guardian reported.
"I think we can fund Ukraine if we are totally blocked next year," Macron told reporters after the EU summit in Brussels.
Whew. He had me worried for a second. Well, let's just say that the scorpion parable comes to mind.
Estonia's war plan (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25526)
QuoteA national security policy paper newly-released by Estonia's Defence Ministry said Ukraine and its allies would inevitably defeat Russia provided its supporters stay united, and that the Ukrainian military is currently killing and injuring more than ten thousand Russian soldiers each month.
United front to supply UA forces, UA forces destroy RU forces faster than they can replenish ---> Russia will lose the war by 2026. Simple and direct. I like it.
QuoteIt assesses that Russia's recruiting and military production capacity is limited and it is unlikely to be able to manage sufficient equipment procurement to support 40,000 recruits every six months. Casualty rates are already so lopsided in Ukraine's favor that the longer the fighting goes on, the less capacity Russia's troops will have to attack and hold ground, the document says.
Quote"The objective therefore should be to inflict a sustained rate of attrition of at least 50,000 killed and severely wounded Russian troops per six months to consistently degrade the quality of the Russian force, preventing Russia from regenerating offensive combat power – which Ukraine so far has successfully achieved," the section on attrition strategy said.
That part of the plan is solid - Ukrainian forces are already inflicting enough attrition on Russian forces to force a Russian strategic defeat in Ukraine.
QuoteUkraine's allies should in 2024 focus efforts to make the Ukrainian military the most efficient killing machine possible and "support the training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and tailor the defense industrial output accordingly to provide the AFU the artillery, munitions, UAVs, strike systems, air defenses and fighter aircraft required to liberate their territory," the review said.
The Estonian government paper also recommended western states move quickly to confiscate some €330 billion in frozen Russian assets to help finance the Ukraine war effort, devote substantial resources to large-scale AFU combat formation and staff and operations training, and invest in high-tech arms manufacturing and supply chains.
That strategy, if followed, and provided Ukrainian will to fight stays strong, will defeat Russia by "2026 at the latest", the article said.
Obvious advice, but it's important that someone says it, especially someone reputable. Obviously, it will be a significant investment, but I guarantee that a Ukrainian defeat would be far more costly in every conceivable metric than a Ukrainian victory, and obviously, a short war is less costly than a long war. Therefore, it's in Ukrainian allies' best interests to go all in and provide as much support as needed. A post-war Ukraine has the potential to become a valuable trading partner after the war, a phenomenon that should be extremely familiar to every American student of history.
Though this objective is much more difficult than the previous one: partisan bickering and Russian influence are a potent combination and lately Putin has done a lot of damage to the Allies' cause by cultivating veto power to stymie or cut off vital Allied assistance. Because otherwise, Russian war production is no match for EU/NATO/Ukraine war production and Russia handedly loses.
Russian artillery almost hits low-flying Russian plane (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russian-fighter-jet-nearly-destroyed-by-friendly-fire-pilot-dodges-5-rockets/ar-AA1lzy5h)
How close was it? Oh, about this close:
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1lzM4b.img?w=768&h=402&m=6)
A Zed head commented:
Quote"Our warriors are people of unbridled courage. They are in such a rush to hit the enemy, that they do not look at what is happening around them."
Is that really courageous to be oblivious and careless?
Imho, it takes a staggering level of incompetence to make something like this happen. It's basically impossible to be trained and sober and do this.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 16, 2023, 01:22:28 AMRussian artillery almost hits low-flying Russian plane (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russian-fighter-jet-nearly-destroyed-by-friendly-fire-pilot-dodges-5-rockets/ar-AA1lzy5h)
How close was it? Oh, about this close:
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1lzM4b.img?w=768&h=402&m=6)
A Zed head commented:
Is that really courageous to be oblivious and careless?
Imho, it takes a staggering level of incompetence to make something like this happen. It's basically impossible to be trained and sober and do this.
Where is their IFF system? This is 1939 type action.
Quote from: Cassia on December 16, 2023, 07:55:06 AMWhere is their IFF system? This is 1939 type action.
The aircraft reportedly often use low-quality civilian GPS to navigate. So IFF probably seems like a luxury item.
Even if one relies soley on their naked eyes, that close call shouldn't have happened. When the Ukrainians spot one of their birds in the air, they cheer and wait for it to pass. The Russians apparently fire blind at least some of the time.
A HIMARS strike reportedly hit a Russian military building in northern Tokmak, killing Russian drone operators.
This is breaking news so no article yet. Will update this post when it hits the presses.
Finland closes its border with Russia indefinitely (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/world/europe/finland-border-russia.html)
Previously, Finland temporarily closed its border because apparently the Russian government was herding people of African and Middle Eastern descent to Finland in the hopes that they'd immigrate illegally. Russia is definitely a big fan of the "I'm not touching you" school of hybrid warfare. It got so bad that Finnish military forces came to monitor the situation and erect border fences.
Similar things happened along Poland's border with Belarus.
Ukrainian Bradley destroys entire Russian convoy (https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-bradley-destroys-column-of-russian-armored-vehicles/?amp)
QuoteA Ukrainian M2A2 'Bradley' infantry fighting vehicle successfully destroyed an entire column of Russian light armored vehicles near Avdiivka.
QuoteThe attack destroyed the Russian light armored vehicles, prompting some social media users to wryly note that when three Russian MT-LBs encounter a single Ukrainian Bradley, they seem to turn into a colander.
Granted, it wasn't a large convoy - just three armored vehicles - but this Bradley did exactly what it was designed to do.
Over 12,000 people in Russia identify as elvish. 🤣
Russia creates fake telegram channels posing as Ukrainian brigades and battalions (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3801119-russia-creating-fake-telegram-channels-of-ukrainian-brigades-and-battalions-center-for-combating-disinformation.html)
So if you see something there that seems too strange to be true, it probably is!
(https://i.imgur.com/0BDbe56l.jpeg)
Another busy day. They'll surely hit 350k by Christmas. Big losses on tanks and artillery and AA as well.
There isn't a country on Earth that can take this level of attrition without breaking down eventually.
In an interview with state-run television, Putin said that he has no desire to attack NATO countries directly (note the exact words)
Shortly after, he threatened Finland (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-new-nato-member-finland-didnt-have-problems-before-but-now-it-will/).
Additionally, many NATO and non-NATO countries have repeatedly been threatened by Russia before and during the war on Ukraine, with Russian drones repeatedly violating Romanian airspace (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/nato-fighters-scrambled-as-russian-drone-violates-romanian-airspace). In fact, Russian provocations were precisely the reason Finland closed its border with Russia.
To paraphrase the saying, watch the feet, not the mouth.
Highlights:
Russian airbase hit, photo of a plane damaged with shrapnel
Russia lost another Su-25 airplane (initially erroneously reported to be a Ukrainian plane, a mistake that the AA guy also made, because they in fact shot down their own plane. Oopsie daisy!)
New Ukrainian drone @ 8m30sec
Wiretapping device found in Commander-In-Chief Zaluzhnyi's new office (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/17/7433465/) after thorough sweep prior to him moving in. The good news is that the Russians were denied any intel. The bad news is that we are in lack of clue as to who planted the wiretapping device, though a criminal investigation is ongoing.
Freedom of Russia Legion again launches border incursion (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-anti-putin-group-freedom-legion-said-behind-attack-belgorod-2023-12), destroys Russian stronghold near the border with Ukraine
QuoteThe intelligence source said that Russia's military is sending fighters to Avdiivka, the most intense battle taking place in Ukraine, and leaving its border unprotected.
An exploitable vulnerability.
QuoteThe paramilitary group also said it left behind landmines in the area.
"Did we put them here? Or over there? No, I think it was over there. Have fun commuting to the warzone!"
A couple of weeks ago, a Ukrainian recon/sabotage group was near Kursk planting landmines. They remotely detonated them and blow up a Russian military vehicle of some sort while it was moving. Such moves do disproportionate amounts of damage to the Russian war effort and sow all sorts of chaos and confusion. The Ukrainians say that the rear guards are often of especially low quality, making such operations much easier than they otherwise would be.
Germany to indefinitely deploy troops to Lithuania (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-brigade-be-combat-ready-lithuania-russian-border-2027-2023-12-18/) Three guess as to why they're needed there. This is the first time Germany has permanently deployed troops to another country since WWII.
I'm hoping the Ukrainians get appropriate western aid to take their territory back, otherwise we might see a lot more troops on the ground in that area. A decisive Ukrainian victory would not only win peace for Ukraine, but peace for nearby countries as well.
(https://readytorole.files.wordpress.com/2019/01/images.jpg)
Plague rats: hemorrhagic fever outbreak among Russian troops (https://global.espreso.tv/outbreak-of-mouse-fever-recorded-among-russian-troops-in-kupyansk-direction-ukrainian-intelligence), spread by mice/rats
QuoteSymptoms of "mouse fever" include severe headache, fever up to 40 degrees, rashes and redness, low blood pressure, hemorrhages in the eyes, nausea, and vomiting several times a day.
Both sides have had infestations of mice/rats in their trenches and shelters due to the stagnant conditions, winter weather, and garbage left by soldiers. Ukrainian soldiers have reportedly fared better due to their fondness of pets (https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-dogs-cats-keeping-ukrainian-troops-company-on-front-line-2023-11) - initially for companionship and morale - later to help guard their food/lodgings.
In contrast, the Russians typically did not think ahead to bring animals with them to war. Alternatively, considering that Ukrainian dogs/cats were often brutalized by the invaders and Russia now relies heavily on "Storm-Z" penal battalions, including a guy who infamously tortured a cat to death before later dying himself in combat, it seems plausible that the Russians have had more difficulty creating/maintaining a similar mutualistic relationship.
Another disease vector is of course the rats in brass:
QuoteThe Defence Intelligence emphasizes that complaints about the fever from Russian army personnel involved in the war against Ukraine were ignored by the command, which regarded them as another manifestation of evasion from participation in hostilities.
They sound like the kind of people who think that it's impossible to get sick on a Friday. :/
That picture looks like one of those rodents of unusual size that I've heard about somewhere. I think they're often referred to as ROUSs. I seem to recall that they hang out in a place called the fire swamp.
Explosions in Crimea, Russian Space Communication Station (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/20/7433867/) may have been hit
6 oil tankers carrying about 5 million barrels of Russian oil fail to finish deliveries in India (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russian-tankers-carrying-5-million-barrels-of-oil-fail-to-reach-india/)
QuoteSix vessels carrying almost 5 million barrels of Russian oil failed to reach their destinations in India, some idling kilometers off the coast for weeks without providing a reason, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 20.
Recent U.S. sanctions targeting the violators of the $60-per-barrel price cap could partially be the reason, the news outlet speculated.
QuoteThe U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned the NS Century ship, belonging to the Russian Sovcomflot shipping company, on Nov. 16 for violating the price cap.
Two days later, the vessel halted south of Sri Lanka while carrying Russian oil to the Indian port of Vadinar, Bloomberg wrote.
It's not always easy to figure out if sanctions are having much of an effect. But in this case, it's pretty clear that they've abruptly stopped for some reason and that reason is almost certainly sanctions - that or it's one hell of a coincidence.
The US is seeking to extend oil sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/us-tightens-sanctions-on-russian-oil/) to more effectively enforce the agreed-upon oil cap.
EU court upholds sanctions against Russian billionaire oligarch Abramovich (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-top-court-upholds-sanctions-against-russian-billionaire-roman-abramovich-2023-12-20/)
He tried to overturn EU sanctions against him and failed.
Personally, I wasn't aware that there was any legal recourse when sanctioned by one or more countries - I thought it was like being branded an outlaw or receiving an insulting nickname in middle school or buying a timeshare in a momentary lapse of judgement - when it's done, it's done for good and can't be undone.
(https://i.imgur.com/YYbONKJl.jpg)
(https://preview.redd.it/tc4h6wjyen7c1.jpeg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=74a9c2f02e2b72aabd16cbcefc96ff2982f9feae)
Germany sends extra Marder IFVs to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/germany-surpasses-initial-tank-commitment-boosts-marder-deliveries-to-ukraine/)
This is fantastic news for Ukraine since IFVs are in high demand and Marders are reportedly rated highly by Ukrainian units, even compared to other western IFVs. Suffice it to say that they're huge upgrades over the old Soviet IFVs and will save a lot of lives.
And I've gotta say, Germany got a bad rap early in the invasion for sluggish support, especially when it came to the Leopard tanks, but they have steadily ratcheted up their aid up to the point that now they're becoming a serious contender for the MVP spot. A very welcome development and an important one as US aid is currently in limbo. Plus, it's nice to see Europeans caring for Europeans.
Even if US aid weren't so easily stymied by partisan man-on-the-inside disruption efforts, the US can't realistically be expected to be the world police anymore, especially with multiple crises at once, so taking charge at a regional level is very important.
Speaking of Europeans helping Europeans, we have the curious case of Orban seemingly adopting Russian newspeak and calling the war a "special military operation" (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-21/orban-questions-if-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-is-a-war)
I should note that he told reporters that he was also willing to call it a war, in which case, why argue semantics? It's a military conflict with trenches and tanks and intense artillery bombardment and lots and lots of casualties. For the average person, it's a war. And for people living in Kharkiv or Kyiv or Kherson who have to visit air raid shelters because bombs are falling, there's no question that it's a war.
Of course, the obvious answer is that Orban is trying to score points with Putin and broadcast Russian narratives to the West as if they were truth.
Orban has also said that he now wishes to speak with Zelenskyy (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/hungarys-orbn-agreed-future-meeting-ukrainian-president-zelenskyy-105839053) - something he's not normally in the mood for, as was evident at Argentina. The timing is rather interesting, since the EU has recently been floating the idea of stripping Orban of the ability to vote on future aid packages. Perhaps someone is panicking a little bit, but who knows.
US steps up efforts to confiscate Russian assets in favour of Ukraine amid congressional blockade (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/21/7434105/)
I am 1000% in favor of this. Russian money fuels the war, so it's only fitting that Russian money should end it.
QuoteThe article mentions that earlier, US officials considered the confiscation scenario to be a lever of influence on Russia to force it to sit down at the negotiating table with Ukraine and stop the war. Yet Moscow has not signalled any interest in such talks.
Russia has repeatedly stated that it won't entertain stopping the war until its war goals are achieved (aka Ukraine ceases to exist) and in fact the Russian Deputy Secretary to the UN recently said that "Ukraine has missed the opportunity to ink a favorable peace agreement, so now any potential deal will reflect its capitulation" - ominous words that should be read aloud to everyone who says Zelenskyy should rush to a peace deal. Despite this, Russia has said that it would consider having peace talks in 2025 at the earliest. Purely coincidentally, that is the time in which a new American presidential term begins.
Ukraine shoots down 3 Russian fighter-bombers (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-air-force-shot-down-3-su-34-fighter-bombers/)
Details are sparse at this time, but wreckage photos have appeared online and Russian telegram channels report searching for the plane pilots.
The Ukrainian air force claims all three kills.
A Russian soldier tried to use his gun to club an incoming Ukrainian kamakaze drone.
It didn't work. Or maybe it did, but the end result is the same. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
There was also another one of a Russian soldier flipping off a Ukrainian drone. That was a quicky way to go from cargo 300 to cargo 200.
There are also reports of Russian amputees serving on the frontlines with much larger frequency, which certainly highlights the lack of rotations.
Flipping the bird at drones is a tried and true tactic that's been known to work very well...uh...never! 🤣
Russia drastically reduces guided bomb attacks in the south following the destruction of three of its planes in one day (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-drastically-reduced-the-use-of-guided-bombs-in-the-south-after-the-destruction-of-su-34/)
Russian LNG hopes dashed (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-russias-lng-ambitions-stalled-by-sanctions-lack-of-tankers/)
Russia hoped to partially compensate for oil sanctions by ramping up liquid natural gas exports, seeking to increase its global market share from 8% to 20% by 2030.
However, its new Arctic LNG project has encountered delays and notified its clients that it cannot fulfill its contracts on time.
Low quality shells from North Korea damaging Russian artillery, hurting Russian troops (https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-low-quality-north-korean-shells-injure-troops-ukraine-says-2023-12)
QuoteIn some cases, the North Korean-supplied shells damage cannon and mortar barrels and even injure Russian soldiers.
This is not speculation, this is documented.
There was a rather humorous picture posted on Russian telegram of some antique soviet artillery (it wasn't very impressive) missing half its barrel because apparently it sheared off while firing. The crew was lucky that's all that happened.
The Ukrainians also cut open a couple captured NK shells to figure out what they're like before firing. They were definitely a bit iffy - more something to use in desperation than something to use regularly. Better than nothing, though.
The Netherlands is preparing the first batch of 18 F-16s for Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-zelensky-meets-polish-foreign-minister-hopes-for-new-page-in-bilateral-relations/), expected to arrive very soon
These F-16s have been modified, primarily with updated radars capable of detecting Russian aircraft from much farther distances.
Having these in the air should drastically reduce the Russian aviation presence, which has already waned similarly to the Russian navy. Russia's preferred tactic of aerial bombardment will now come with a greatly increased risk of getting shot down. So, either Russia drastically reduces air operations or it loses much more planes and then is forced to reduce operations. Either way works in Ukraine's favor.
Covid spreads in Russia (https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/cases?n=c)
279.4k new cases in the past month, making it the top spot in the countries actually tracked.
Possibly related to the abnormally large number of ambulances lining up near the Moscow infectious disease hospitals (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-virus-outbreak-moscow-hospitals-ambulances-video-1853301)
The Ukrainians say they shot down a Su-34 and possibly a Su-30, in addition to the three Su-34s downed a couple of days ago.
Russian telegram countered by claiming that all their Su-34s returned back to base safely and they shot down three Ukrainian F-16s. And to "prove" this, they posted an image of a crashed F-16 taken from a 2018 news article. Top notch reporting, as always.
Additionally, it fits the pattern of the Russians saying that any newly-arrived Western equipment has already been destroyed, partly to evoke fear and uncertainty in their enemies and partly for domestic consumption - to allay fears about Western equipment eating their troops for breakfast.
Russian propagandist who called for the murder of Ukrainian children is hospitalized (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25926)
Supposedly, the reason is food poisoning, though the exact nature of the situation is difficult to tell. I'm not sure if the website translated correctly, because "food poisoning" and "poisoning" describe two very different things in English.
Either way, it's yet another Russian tried in abstentia in Ukraine and then suffering some mysterious calamity in Russia which may cause the case to become closed before apprehension. Who did it or how they did it is ultimately of little importance - justice was accomplished, intentional or not, by persons unknown or by accident.
Finally, it is important to note that the people calling for the genocide of Ukrainians and the people saying that Russia's military actions in Ukraine are justified in the name of "saving" Ukrainians are often the same people and this incongruence is completely intentional, betraying a lack of honesty and utterly wicked intentions.
Another Russian Landing Sunk! (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-air-force-destroys-russian-landing-ship-in-occupied-crimea/)
The Ukrainian Air Force says its sunk the ship near occupied Crimea and supplied video evidence.
Russia says it was damaged, not sunk, and claimed - without evidence of any kind - that they shot down two Ukrainian jets. Presumably, the lack of evidence is due to a lack of a suitable photo from 2018.
The ship was[/quite] quite large at almost 113 meters - a little more than half the length of the Moskva.
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_landing_ship_Novocherkassk)
QuoteRussian media reported that Putin was informed of the "damage" to the ship.
(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106658555-1597152707943-DownfallClipScreenshot.jpg?v=1597152788&w=717&h=403&ffmt=webp&vtcrop=y)
QuoteU.K. Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said in October that Ukraine's successful attacks had led to a "functional defeat" of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea.
President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted in October that Ukraine would soon have full fire control over occupied Crimea, citing the widespread failure of Russian air defenses in the peninsula.
He also noted that Russia's Black Sea Fleet has suffered such significant losses that a new naval base is planned to open in Abkhazia, a Russian-occupied region of Georgia located on the Black Sea, in order to move ships "as far as possible from Ukrainian missiles and naval drones."
(https://i.imgur.com/INMskE4l.jpeg)
"damaged"
Telegram is too funny sometimes - a reporter is picking up pieces of the ship in front of a store in Crimea and meanwhile Russian telegram says that the ship was only damaged on the superstructure and it'll be repaired in 6 months tops lol
(https://i.imgur.com/SHcTPrpl.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/tusBC1ml.jpeg)
The huge disproportionate loss of life that the Soviet Union suffered during WW2 makes way more sense now. Probably similar meatball command and control mistakes. The message Putin sends the West is "see, it doesn't matter how many brave Russians you kill; we have many more". Just when some leaders in the West were thinking Ukraine may be winning. I hope this will only give the West more resolve. IMHO, there is no way in hell Russian is gonna stop at Ukraine.
(https://civil.today/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Putin-Hitler-Putler-750x375.jpg.webp)
Quote from: Cassia on December 26, 2023, 04:54:32 PMThe huge disproportionate loss of life that the Soviet Union suffered during WW2 makes way more sense now. Probably similar meatball command and control mistakes. The message Putin sends the West is "see, it doesn't matter how many brave Russians you kill; we have many more". Just when some leaders in the West were thinking Ukraine may be winning. I hope this will only give the West more resolve. IMHO, there is no way in hell Russian is gonna stop at Ukraine.
(https://civil.today/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Putin-Hitler-Putler-750x375.jpg.webp)
Vlad wants his milk cows back, but they'd rather be with a more benevolent owner.
The EU wouldn't really "own" Ukraine. They'd have to make some changes to get in the EU, but they're already 90% of the way there. Ukraine is just asking for a strong friend to keep bullies away so it can be at peace and develop in its own way.
In bad news, Russia has captured most of the town of Marinka (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russias-alleged-capture-of-marinka-unlikely-to-allow-for-rapid-operational-advances/) and shelled Kherson city (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/dec/27/russia-ukraine-war-maryinka-putin-zelenskiy), hitting a railway station and knocking out power.
I've read that such attacks on civilian infrastructure are intensified allegedly in response to serious military defeats, like the sinking of Russian ships. Supposedly it helps the Russians cope with losses - to imagine that mutual losses means they're no longer losing. That or to use bombing civilians as a deterrent in some sick mind game. Abusive ex vibes on that one.
Russia has stepped up patrols to locate scouts/informats, but Atesh has recently revealed the locations of Russian AA near Kerch bridge. So if Russia wants to play tit-for-tat, it can no longer do that without risking second helpings of retaliation from the Ukrainians.
On Ukrainian telegram, they were kinda pissed at this guy for seeming to surrender to a drone but then not following through on actually surrendering but instead returning to his trench network. But a whole group did in fact surrender with minimal "persuasion", possibly through his efforts. Either way, drone operators better not see his face again.
And yes, the Russian troops' main reason for surrender is now alleged mistreatment by their own commanders, apparently trying to replicate Wagner's brutal-but-effective tactics but flubbing that second part. There has been footage of Russian commanders stripping and beating their own soldiers for various offenses, including drunkenness, drug use, and/or retreating from the enemy. A lot of the punishments lately involve being left out in the cold without adequate protection. Naturally, the soldiers would prefer three hots and a cot, so surrendering is becoming a more popular option.
Turret toss world champion (https://nitter.net/moklasen/status/1739992998073827414/) 🏆
In the comments, someone did napkin math and estimated a maximum height of about 85m (278ft) above the ground, which is plausible as ludicrous as that sounds. It definitely cleared 100ft and probably cleared 200ft at the least.
Scratch one T-72.
The US announced its last aid package until Congress gets its act together: $250 million worth of ammo (https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3627179/biden-administration-announces-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/)
Ammo for NASAMS, Stinger missiles, HIMARS missiles, 155mm and 150mm artillery shells, TOW missiles (for Bradelys), Javelin rockets, small arms, etc.
(https://i.imgur.com/DqaMPajl.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/eGWPxOkl.jpeg)
27 tanks in one day! And at least one of these is a T-90M. It was en route to assault Ukrainian positions until it was hit in the rear by an FPV drone, was promptly abandoned, then slowly burned down over time. The best Putin has in Ukraine and millions of dollars worth of military hardware, destroyed with a <$1000 drone.
Russian troop losses have consistently been slightly over or under 1000 a day for good while now. Ukraine released a lot of footage to show that they're making remarkable progress in thinning Russian ranks.
For some reason, Russia has dozens - maybe up to 100 - of soldiers lying dead next to a trench for no discernable reason. You'd think they would have sought safety in the trench if they were under attack. Strange.
And I'm reasonably sure that the most recent ship loss was a training ship docked next to the landing ship that was dramatically destroyed a couple of days ago. The blast was large enough to also destroy the training ship.
In bad news, Russian cowards summarily execute 3 Ukrainian soldiers (https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-russias-76th-airborne-division-likely-linked-to-execution-of-ukrainian-pows-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/) in yet another war crime.
Russia tortures POWs, refuses to exchange prisoners, uses them as human shields (shooting one afterwards for funsies),and now simply executes prisoners on the spot.
There is now absolutely zero reason for any Ukrainian soldier to surrender. If cornered, they are incentivized to take down as many Russians as they can instead of surrendering.
The culprits have been identified as belonging to Russia's 76th Airborne Division. I doubt I'll see any more surrender videos in their direction, just lots and lots of drone drop videos. The Ukrainians know where they operate and know what they did and I very much doubt they'll be inclined towards mercy.
(https://i.imgur.com/Jkm11gX.png)
Russia just launched a series of devastating attacks against civilians across several major cities targetting residential buildings, a market, a maternity ward, etc.
The purpose of the attacks is to terrorize and brutalize civilians to accomplish some sort of political goal - like giving away Ukrainian land at "peace" talks.
But how can you negotiate with terrorists? Or expect such a state to abide by agreements it has shown to be willing to violate?
Russian rocket flew through Polish airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unidentified-object-entered-poland-direction-ukraine-says-polish-army-2023-12-29/)
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/we8axwQfzKc/maxresdefault.jpg)
The Russian tank support vehicle with twin 30mm cannons looks fierce as hell, but why would the barrel recoil suppressors vent into each other? The barrels wiggle so much, I bet a Bradley with one accurate gun would chew it up at longer ranges.
(https://preview.redd.it/quietly-signals-from-war-criminals-look-something-like-this-v0-8rpwygby189c1.jpg?width=1009&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7be038b1822fcd12a952bad3444c368bc5d3326d)
Trust your eyes, not clickbait.
Quote from: Cassia on December 29, 2023, 03:36:43 PM(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/we8axwQfzKc/maxresdefault.jpg)
The Russian tank support vehicle with twin 30mm cannons looks fierce as hell, but why would the barrel recoil suppressors vent into each other?
I've seen quite a few of those blowing up. The name is the scariest thing about it.
Russian military design is baffling - tanks with autoloaders which sounds nice until they explode and toss the turret and kill all the crew, heavy cruisers with ludicrous amounts of weapons that can't be properly maintained with a high risk of explosion, attack helicopters overloaded that start wobbling (admittedly, that last one is an operator issue), etc.
I was just reading about how Russia's air attack backfired, by garnering more support from the EU, the UK, and the US.
Quote from: Unbeliever on December 29, 2023, 10:21:09 PMI was just reading about how Russia's air attack backfired, by garnering more support from the EU, the UK, and the US.
The UK did pledge a few hundred missiles for air defense, and that's good, but that'll only just barely cover the next couple similar attacks. Imho, I'd only call it a backfire if both American and EU aid packages went through as a result. Sadly, cautionary/stymied support isn't enough.
Quote from: Hydra009 on December 30, 2023, 12:50:10 AMThe UK did pledge a few hundred missiles for air defense, and that's good, but that'll only just barely cover the next couple similar attacks. Imho, I'd only call it a backfire if both American and EU aid packages went through as a result. Sadly, cautionary/stymied support isn't enough.
Yeah, it is always too little, too late. The upcoming US election might be the end of much of the support (especially the valuable intelligence) if the tangerine nightmare wins. If an anti-Putin commander wins, I think a huge step-up in support is in order to finally break the Ruskies' idiotic invasion.
I'm pretty sure "the tangerine nightmare" is not going to win. But I could be wrong. It's a bit concerning to me that he has even the slight possibility of becoming our president again.
I expect the GOP to do very badly all around.
Quote from: Unbeliever on December 30, 2023, 11:13:47 AMI'm pretty sure "the tangerine nightmare" is not going to win. But I could be wrong. It's a bit concerning to me that he has even the slight possibility of becoming our president again.
I expect the GOP to do very badly all around.
I hope so. It's impossible for Ukraine to strategize not knowing how much ammo they will get over time next year. Russia is getting buttloads of ammo and drones from the bad guys in China and Iran as they increase their own weapon production numbers. Europe has more at stake than the US does, so they better get on it if they don't want Putin as their next-door neighbor.
HIMARS has been busy lately. The most recent engagement was the destruction of a Russian counter-battery radar worth $250 million usd (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-counterbattery-radar-yastreb-av-himars-strike-ukraine-1857275). It had just arrived, too.
In the past few days, they also hit a drone control station
a self-propelled howitzer
and an AA vehicle
I hear that Russia's "unbeatable" missile is, well, beatable after all! 🤣
Closer than you think, awake longer than you: Russian fighter-bomber burns in Russian airbase through sabotage actions (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainska-pravda-hur-says-it-torched-russian-su-34-jet-at-russian-airbase/)
QuoteA Russian Su-34 fighter jet was lit on fire overnight on Jan. 4 at the Shagol airbase in Chelyabinsk, Russia, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said, publishing a video of the burning plane.
QuoteChelyabinsk is located almost 2,000 kilometers east of the Ukrainian border.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 04, 2024, 08:54:53 AMCloser than you think, awake longer than you: Russian fighter-bomber burns down in Russian airbase through sabotage actions (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainska-pravda-hur-says-it-torched-russian-su-34-jet-at-russian-airbase/)
It can't be too hard to buy off a few Russians either.
Quote from: Cassia on January 04, 2024, 08:57:30 AMIt can't be too hard to buy off a few Russians either.
Yeah. If money is what motivates them to fight Ukraine, money can also motivate them to fight Russia.
Russia accidentally bombs it own territory (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26221)
The strike basically gutted six buildings but miraculously, no one was harmed - according to Russian authorities. Maybe they were all out shopping for milk that day, who knows.
QuoteLocal residents complain that an entire street was destroyed and about a dozen houses were damaged.
6 houses, a dozen houses. A tiny, tiny minor discrepancy. But definitely no one was hurt, every Russian source stressed, unsuspiciously.
I'm kinda late to this story because yet again, I mistakenly thought it was old news - basically the same thing happened last April. History certainly does rhyme. Also, when this story first broke, Russian telegram denied it or claimed that the Ukrainians did it, so it took a while for the truth to come out - and perhaps it hasn't completely come out. It's something to bear in mind when Russian media tries to pin civilian damage on Ukraine.
The one day where I don't check breaking news...
Crimea was hit hard today, Ukraine struck air defenses and an important command center (https://www.newsweek.com/crimea-attack-ukraine-missiles-air-defenses-1858128)
QuoteUkraine earlier said it had struck a Russian military command post near Sevastopol and a military unit near the city of Yevpatoria, in separate strikes on the Black Sea peninsula, which was annexed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2014.
"Not only one command post was hit, really powerful combat work took place over the past 24 hours, including causing serious damage to the defense system on the Crimean peninsula," Ukraine military spokesperson Natalia Gumenyuk said, RBC Ukraine reported on Friday.
QuoteUnconfirmed reports circulated on Russian Telegram channels on Friday that 23 Russian military personnel were killed in the attacks, including five high-ranking officers and at least nine special forces soldiers.
Unfounded rumors also swirled that Russia's top general, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, was killed in the attack.
For those who don't know, Gerasimov, along with Shoigu and Putin are essentially the head of the snake so to speak and oversee the whole invasion. Those three people are also the only ones with access to Russia's nuclear arsenal. Suffice it to say that him buying the big one would be HUGE.
But don't uncork the champagne quite yet. This isn't confirmed and likely wouldn't be confirmed either way and we'll just have to wait and see if he makes any personal appearances. If he disappears for weeks or months, then it'll be pretty clear that something has happened.
The fact that he hasn't said a peep in these past 12 hours is somewhat encouraging. So don't uncork anything, but it's a good idea to set the bottle on the counter along with some nice glasses, bottle opener, and maybe some confetti (technically, trash) just in case. In lieu of champagne, Ukrainian vodka (called horilka, which means flammable spirits) is also acceptable.
Apparently Putin is begging his remaining allies to supply him with weapons.
Any country that supplies such weapons should be sanctioned.
Quote from: Unbeliever on January 06, 2024, 12:56:57 AMApparently Putin is begging his remaining allies to supply him with weapons.
Any country that supplies such weapons should be sanctioned.
Agreed. And indeed pressure is put on such countries (https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-to-withdraw-aid-to-mali-over-stance-toward-russia/), but it is too sporadic and slap-on-the-wrist imo.
Sponsoring a war of aggression and genocide-in-progress should make headlines and be extremely alienating, through both public sector and private sector reactions. Countries should be scarced of the consequences should their support of Putin become known. Sadly, this is not the case.
And of course, Putin's biggest supporters are already pariah states, and it's not like you can cut off someone who's already been cut off.
Ukraine conducts border raid on Russia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/defence-intelligence-officers-conducted-a-raid-in-belgorod-region/)
Russian border guards were expecting a visit from the brass, but got an entirely different sort of visit instead. One designed to hamper reinforcements and also further degrade the enemy's morale.
QuoteAccording to the intelligence, the top leadership of the Russian Armed Forces planned to conduct an inspection at Russian positions in the Grayvoronsky district of Belgorod region due to complaints from personnel about service conditions.
Before the arrival of the Moscow "inspectors", the ordinary invaders began to fuss and they began to carry out active engineering work.
In order to inflict losses on the enemy and to undermine their moral and psychological state, officers of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine planned and carried out a special operation.
The Ukrainians mined the road, set up an ambush, and attacked Russian forces. Losses are currently unknown.
Ukraine hits command post at Saki airbase in Crimea (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-command-post-has-been-hit-at-the-saki-military-air-base/)
The Ukrainian Air Force wrote that all targets were destroyed.
Russia partially confirmed this, stating that it "intercepted" four missiles there. I note that it has become something of a in-joke on telegram that Russia considers a direct hit on its equipment to be a neutralization of a Ukrainian missile.
I can confirm what he says about Krynky. The footage I saw made it out to be a mini-Vulhedar, with at least 5 burning Russian armored vehicles and some drones handing out naps. Though of course, I was watching the highlights as opposed to the raw feed, giving me a somewhat misleading impression. The official figures (https://news.yahoo.com/southern-defense-forces-report-significant-163500592.html) are a bit more modest. Though taking out a Grad rocket launcher, a mortar, a boat, 5 armored vehicles, and various surveillance/comm/observation/UAV points is not a bad day's work at all.
Free tip for the Russians: no more than 1 man per foxhole. 5 in one hole makes for an incredibly tempting target and very efficient use of Ukrainian munitions. Let's just say that everyone fears dying alone except for Russians.
I have heard stories about Krynky being some sort of deathtrap for Ukrainian troops - and to be fair, they are heavily attacked by Russian forces, particularly Russian artillery and gliding bombs dropped from plane (this decreased dramatically but only temporarily after Russia mysteriously lost several of its planes in quick succession). And it is true that it really, really sucks on the ground level and of course is a very dangerous posting.
But on the strategic level, holding this territory - much less expanding the bridgehead - does several very important things for Ukraine:
1) ties up significant amounts of Russian forces, particularly their paratroopers and aviation
2) generates very disproportionate attrition
3) undermines Russian morale - it drives them crazy that the Ukrainians are not settling into static positions on their side of the river but are instead menacing Russian positions and threatening Crimea
4) quite literally paves the way for an eventual counterattack towards Crimea
F-16s from Denmark have been delayed - the headlines say 6 months, but the text is more like up to 6 months - as in a 6-month deadline. The bottom line is that both Ukraine and Denmark expect Ukraine to have F-16s in the first half of 2024 (https://news.yahoo.com/denmark-postpones-delivery-first-six-172500066.html), which I guess is likely by May or June at the latest.
And Denys's dark humor about Putin's meeting with bereaved Russian families and being jarringly upbeat about human tragedy is quite spot on. This is nothing but a photo op for him. Obviously, he doesn't care in the slightest if Russian soldiers live or die. He cares about spending the lives of 1000 troops like I care about spending $2 for a Coke at the vending machine. In fact, the great dictator just issued a decree allowing for abducted Ukrainian children to be given Russian citizenship (https://news.yahoo.com/foreign-ministry-condemns-kremlin-decree-143500386.html) - in other words, have their Ukrainian identity completely erased and replaced with a Russian identity. I remind everyone that this meets the textbook definition of genocide. He also wishes to grant foreign mercenaries citizenship. Suffice it to say that Putin is currently like Omniman towards the end of Invincible season 1, talking about human mortality, the family pet, and the effortlessness of "making another kid". Truly despicable stuff.
Anyway, on a more positive note, Ukraine received a Skynex air defense system (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-western-air-defense-system-wipe-out-russian-drones-aircraft-2024-1) from Germany. Turns drones into swiss cheese at a fraction of the cost of a Patriot. The article says 31 mile range but Europe in general and Ukraine in particular use kilometers so I'll translate - 50km range. Stick one of them near the frontline or a major city and suddenly Russian drones and aviation have to watch their step or risk getting shredded. Ukrainian air defense already destroy a majority of Russian drones whenever Russia launches a mass drone strike. Expect that figure to rapidly increase in the vicinity of a Skynex.
(https://i.imgur.com/R2IEzZnl.jpeg)
For want of a nail...
Reportedly - and I'll still kinda iffy on this story - the Russians shot at their own paratroopers (https://nitter.net/nexta_tv/status/1744022720533148046) at the base near Rostov-on-Don (major military base in Russia)
Stormtrooper marksmanship, so reportedly only bagged two. Too incompetent to be very deadly while being incompetent, sadly.
It dovetails nicely with a Ukrainian statement that Russian friendly fire incidents surge (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26421)
While it is tempting to chaulk this up to the Ukrainians "casting shade" and obviously having a vested interest in portraying their enemy negatively, as the article states, "While Shtupun did not provide further details of Russian friendly fire incidents, there have been numerous documented cases in recent months." A lot of this stuff is documented, so it's not like it's just being made up.
The artillery fire on the Russian soldiers retreating near Opytne back in September was widely reported and discussed by both sides, with the Russians lamenting the poor communications between infantry units and artillery units leading to friendly fire incidents, something that hasn't greatly changed since then.
QuoteOleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for the Tavria grouping of troops, said continuing heavy losses among Moscow's troops means "the level of morale and psychological condition is very low."
Speaking to national television, he added: "The invaders are scared so they shoot at everything that moves.
"There have been more friendly fire incidents lately, involving both infantry and drones."
Shtupun also said there has been an increase in the number of Russian soldiers refusing orders to assault Ukrainian positions.
"Russian armored vehicle crews are sabotaging participation in assaults in various ways," he said.
All of that makes logical sense considering Russia's ongoing meatwave tactics with poor odds of survival and Ukraine's mastery of FPV drones. Some Russian units have shown before and after footage of such advances and it's the stuff of nightmares. Such soldiers are undoubtedly highly motivated to find some sort of reason to not advance.
This is fantastic news for Ukraine, but unfortunately, it's not as widespread as it could/should be and afaik Russian surrenders are still more involuntary than voluntary. Every little bit helps, though.
The Ukrainians released footage of the friendly fire incident, taken by a Ukrainian drone. It happened at night. Russian soldiers on foot travelling down a road followed closely by sustained artillery bombardment. The drone operator was very surprised and remarked that "they shoot their own" and then said that Ukrainian forces were long gone from that position. Apparently the Russian soldiers were misidentified and heavily bombarded by Russian artillery for considerable time, suffering an unknown amount of both kia and wounded.
(https://i.imgur.com/wnUKmekt.png)
Ukrainian Intelligence secures $1.5 billion usd worth of Russian military tech documents (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-s-defense-intelligence-secures-1-5-billion-worth-of-russian-military-tech-documents/)
QuoteThe Defense Intelligence press service reported receiving 100 gigabytes of classified data from the Russian company Special Technological Center LLC (STC).
This company produces military equipment used by the Russian army in the war against Ukraine.
QuoteAccording to blogger Apostle Dmitry, whose project was involved in the operation, the secret information was seized from the Russian enterprise due to employees who were dissatisfied with corruption and the policies of the company's management.
The technical data obtained from the Russian military-industrial complex should help the Ukrainian military fight more effectively against the Russian army's weapons.
Some of the acquired documents pertain not only to existing technologies but also to prospective developments that could contribute to the advancement of Ukrainian weaponry.
Drones, electronic warfare systems, communications including satellite radio, computer chips used in various Russian missiles (though not the long-range bombardment ones afaik). This opens up a LOT of potential vulnerabilities to be exploited. Hopefully, the Russians may get hit with surprise system failures at inopportune moments...
Also, there was footage yesterday of an impromptu launch for the emerging Russian Space force - Russian tank crews who apparently decided to quit war and become cosmonauts.
A group of 3-4 armored vehicles was rocked when the tank in the middle became atomized in an explosion so massive that it also likely destroyed/damaged surrounding armored vehicles and it's a miracle that the Ukrainain drone wasn't also consumed by it. Did the crew break the 200m world record? Only the Kremlin knows.
(https://preview.redd.it/mmo2q3snblbc1.jpeg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=7f90b5400d4a47b1ae340b8b39fc3c2b3d34db4f)
Russian pilots, can you guys see okay? Need a map to help you find not-Russia? Need a place to go sleep it off? (presumably near the garbage bins at the hangar)
(https://i.imgur.com/W2aC4Qf.png)
Ukraine strikes Russia's Engels airbase (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-drones-strike-engels-2-airfield/)
This is the main staging grounds for Russian aviation to launch cruise missiles to bombard Ukraine, typically launching over the Caspian Sea.
Russia has "attempted" to protect its aircraft by painting silhouettes on the concrete (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/tu-95-decoys-are-being-painted-on-russian-air-bases-apron) (minus the shadow, so they look basically nothing like real planes)
Additionally, they're still using rubber tires as extra armor - something I suspected was initially done in a fit of madness was somehow approved and allowed to continue by the higher ups. The conspicuous presence of tires adorning the real thing but not the decoy, further degrading the silhouettes' already dubious effectiveness.
Anyway, the base was hit and the extent of the damage is currently unknown.
Entire Russian platoon deserts, heads towards Crimea (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26583)
Quote"Nearly 40 invaders left their trenches and tried to flee toward Crimea, while remaining armed," he told Espreso TV.
"I'm talking about an entire platoon of the Russian army. There were reports that they were being hunted down in an attempt to bring them back."
Shtupun said Russian commanders on the front lines are issuing execution threats to get men to assault Ukrainian positions, saying: "This is how they stimulate invaders to execute assault missions.
QuoteShtupun also said a recent cold snap and unsanitary conditions are causing a rise in desertions with 30 Russian soldiers surrendering in a four-day period.
Kyiv Post could not independently verify Shtupun's specific claim but increases in desertion rates among Russian troops have been documented by independent groups in recent months, as well as several videos of soldiers being maltreated or claiming they've been deceived into fighting on the front.
Apparently the T90 tank features explosive reactive armor (ERA) that can be defeated by the newer tandem-charged anti-tank weapons. The 1st charge sets off the ERA and the 2nd hits all that ammo stored inside the tank. WWII is over; tanks need all kinds of support just to survive these days. Even in WW2 a soldier with a Panzerfaust could take out a tank, but they had to get really close.
Quote from: Cassia on January 12, 2024, 05:23:25 PM Apparently the T90 tank features explosive reactive armor (ERA) that can be defeated by the newer tandem-charged anti-tank weapons. The 1st charge sets off the ERA and the 2nd hits all that ammo stored inside the tank. WWII is over; tanks need all kinds of support just to survive these days. Even in WW2 a soldier with a Panzerfaust could take out a tank, but they had to get really close.
Today is a historic day (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-and-the-united-kingdom-signed-a-security-treaty/)
First, Ukraine is getting a huge aid package worth £2.5 billion over the course of this year (currently, £1 = $1.27 usd, so...carry the one...nearly $3.2 billion usd) Included in the package is a treasure trove of military aid - air defense, anti-tank weapons, long-range weapons, various munitions, military training, and last but not least...£200 million (nearly $255 million usd) worth of drones. Reconnaissance drones, long-range attack drones, FPV drones (current MVP), etc. Suffice is to say that $255 million usd will buy a LOT of drones.
Second, and this is equally important, formal security guarantees from the UK (https://war.ukraine.ua/war-news/ukraine-and-the-uk-signed-the-agreement-on-security-cooperation/):
QuoteAccording to the agreement, in the event of future Russian armed attack against Ukraine, participants will consult within 24 hours to determine the measures needed to counter or deter the aggression. In those circumstances, the UK would provide Ukraine with security assistance, modern military equipment, and economic assistance.
This Agreement is valid for ten years, and if Ukraine joins NATO sooner, the participants will decide on its future status, the document states.
While this document doesn't exactly throw open the gates of Janus, it does trigger consultations if Ukraine is attacked and obligates the UK to provide rapid assistance. Zelenskyy said that "if such guarantees had been achieved in 1991, in particular with Britain, then the war would not have begun."
Obviously, grievous mistakes were made in expecting Dictator Putin to abide by the 1991 Budapest Memorandum in which Ukraine's nuclear arms were voluntarily surrendered to Russia in exchange for guarantees from Russia to respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and borders. Dictators by their very nature are untrustworthy, a painful lesson freshly learned that should be borne in mind in any future dealings with Putin and any other dictators around the world. Dictatorships cannot be relied upon except to come to each other's aid against the free world and it is for this reason that the countries within the free world must rely even more closely upon each other than in the past.
Special brew just for you: Partisans suspected of poisoning Russian troops in Crimea get in shootout with police, on the run (https://www.businessinsider.com/2-women-who-poisoned-46-russian-troops-in-shoot-out-with-fsb-report-2024-1)
This is a follow-up to a previously reported story of two "nice girls" poisoning Russian troops by poisoning their vodka with arsenic and strychnine, which killed 24 Russian troops.
QuoteThe police went to apprehend the female suspects at a private house in Yalta but were surprised to find them "well armed" and "well prepared," the post said.
The saboteurs opened fire and fled the scene in a car, and authorities do not know their current whereabouts.
Three officers were killed and two were wounded in the shoot-out, a source in Russia's Federal Security Service told the Telegram channel.
Amateur hour for those Russians, lol
Not only were troops poisoned by basically the oldest trick in the book, but the investigators got into a shootout they weren't prepared for AND lost the perps. Who was in charge, Sergeant Schultz?
Mysterious fire sweeps through massive warehouse in St Petersburg (https://kyivindependent.com/massive-fire-sweeps-through-st-petersburg-warehouse/)
This is all going to make a great movie someday...
Quote from: Unbeliever on January 13, 2024, 03:20:02 PMThis is all going to make a great movie someday...
20 days In Mariupol already got good reviews.
Bradley (27.6 ton vehicle, 25mm main armament) VS T-90 (46 tons plus the weight of the pagoda, 125 mm main armament)
Place your bets!
Bradley gets off a couple hits on the apparently unsuspecting T-90 (smoke break?) before passing behind cover just in time to avoid the T-90's retaliatory strike. T-90 wastes a shot on the ground.
Video abruptly cuts to a big explosion on the retreating T-90 (that video about the T-90s poor reverse speed appears to have been prescient). The front of the T-90 appears to be on fire from a hit just under the cannon (coincidentally, a weakly armored place and widely-known flaw) turret spins around in an uncontrolled manner and tank slams into tree, coming to a halt.
Step-FPV drone, what are you doing??? And...boom goes the dynamite. Left side burns to ash. Miraculously, the Russian tank crew survive long enough to scramble out into the cold...with Ukrainian drones watching their every move. Not sure what happened to them after that, but surrendering would have been the best possible outcome.
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 14, 2024, 12:02:12 AMBradley (27.6 ton vehicle, 25mm main armament) VS T-90 (46 tons plus the weight of the pagoda, 125 mm main armament)
Place your bets!
Bradley gets off a couple hits on the apparently unsuspecting T-90 (smoke break?) before passing behind cover just in time to avoid the T-90's retaliatory strike. T-90 wastes a shot on the ground.
Video abruptly cuts to a big explosion on the retreating T-90 (that video about the T-90s poor reverse speed appears to have been prescient). The front of the T-90 appears to be on fire from a hit just under the cannon (coincidentally, a weakly armored place and widely-known flaw) turret spins around in an uncontrolled manner and tank slams into tree, coming to a halt.
Step-FPV drone, what are you doing??? And...boom goes the dynamite. Left side burns to ash. Miraculously, the Russian tank crew survive long enough to scramble out into the cold...with Ukrainian drones watching their every move. Not sure what happened to them after that, but surrendering would have been the best possible outcome.
Looks like some of the 25mm got into the front of the turret somehow. I wonder if the Bradley was too close for the TOW missiles that could have killed the tank straight away. I remember seeing a video during the first days of the war when a home brewed Ukrainian IFV got a Russian T72.
According to the Ukrainians, the A-50 AWACS was downed over the Avoz Sea and the Il-22 was damaged and contact was lost, presumably destroyed.
The Russians posted an image of a plane with shrapnel damage throughout the tail wing, presumably evidence that the Il-22 landed safely despite extensive damage.
However, before we draw conclusions, the photo was only of the tail wing and undated. It's not even clear that that's the same type of plane, let alone the plane in question. So imho, that is proof only that a plane was damaged, which is not very helpful.
A Russian telegram channel also says that the British blinded the A-50 equipment and/or crew, then blew it up with manpads (James Bond pitch meeting?) before it veered off to some weird rant about Israel. Oddly reminiscient of far-right conspiracy mongering...
Other, much more credible Russian channels offered condolences regarding both planes, seemingly confirming that both were destroyed. One says it was due to friendly fire - though whether that's because it's true or because he's psychologically unable to admit that the enemy was successful is anyone's guess.
Though I have noticed that when something big happens, the Russians go to great lengths to deny any Ukrainian agency, thus denying Ukrainian strength. We'll see how that works out for them.
Mysterious explosion in Melitopol hits vehicle carrying four Russian soldiers (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-ukrainian-partisans-in-occupied-melitopol-blow-up-vehicle-with-russian-soldiers/)
(https://i.imgur.com/gaExWdNl.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/f1K8KOal.jpeg)
State of emergency declared in Russia's Voronezh region (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/16/7437396/) (just east of Belgorod region)
What comes around...
I saw that a young Russian soldier was 'tiktok filming' an ammo truck on fire with his phone. It was a fatal video. I would have set a new land speed record to get away. You have to understand that something like that will go exponential in no time. It's almost like a critical mass thing. The shrapnel was probably like a cluster bomb. On the 4th of July I stay home under two roofs, because the 'necks around here kill or maim a few locals every year. I recall a car loaded with fireworks that melted a crater in the road and its 2 passengers who could not stop and get out in time won the Darwin award.
Yeah, he walked towards a fire while filming. Not the smartest thing, especially in a war zone.
People in general act really blaise about fires and like to watch from far too close, only backing away when it's practically right on top of them.
I always tell people, when there's an emergency situation, get tf to safety first. Don't grab your stuff. Don't investigate. Don't record. Get out of there first. We'll figure it out later. We'll buy new stuff later. We can't get new people. I mean, technically, we can...
I saw footage of 6 Russians taking cover behind a tree in the snow. One well-placed Ukrainian artillery shot later, no movement except for the wind and snow.
Nothing in Ukraine is worth that. Not the land, not its resources, not a few rubles, and definitely not Putin's approval. Such idiocy.
Looks to me like Europeans are bypassing the embargo through Kyrgyzstan. I hope there is a better explanation. Of course, India, the scam hotspot is happy to buy cheap Russian oil. And of course, for some reason they also need your grandma to purchase a gift card to keep their computer virus-free.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan
https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-official-kyrgyzstan-russia-evading-sanctions/32338817.html
Belarusian children to start learning enough english to interrogate british/american prisoners (https://eadaily-com.translate.goog/ru/ampnews/2024/01/16/belorusskih-shkolnikov-nauchat-perevodit-doprosy-plennyh?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
QuoteAccording to the document, during the elective, high school students will not only study the features of military translation, but will also learn how to interpret interrogations of prisoners.
QuoteIn addition, as part of the elective, high school students will learn to "use acquired knowledge in various situations of foreign language communication, extract information from texts on military topics, read the contents of military documents and convey their essence in Russian, translate military and military personnel from English into Russian." technical texts, carry out two-way translation of a conversation or interrogation of a prisoner of war, and also determine by the insignia of the American and British military, their affiliation with ranks and categories."
It doesn't look like they're preparing for peace...
Abandoning the pretense: in a speech to the Russian people, Dictator Putin says that Russia will not give up its CONQUESTS (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/confident-putin-boasts-of-russian-conquests-in-ukraine/) (referring to Ukraine)
So I have bad news for anyone who seriously believed Putin's earlier statements that Russia was just trying to defend itself and the sovereignty of the allegedly "independent" republics (republics which have now been annexed by Russia, willingly giving up the very sovereignty they claimed they were fighting Kyiv for - a claim made in a very thick Moscow accent)
Now, Putin openly refers to conquests and billboards have gone up in Moscow saying that Russia's borders do not end anywhere (https://news.yahoo.com/fact-check-actual-putin-quote-220900597.html). What could he possibly mean by this?? 🤔
Medvedev posted that the existence of Ukraine at all - not just Zelenskyy's regime - is unacceptable (paraphrased because his word choice is filled with slurs)
But these are his exact words when translated to english:
"The existence of an independent state in the historical Russian territories will now be a permanent reason for the resumption of hostilities."
(https://i.imgur.com/YectcR8.png)
In better news, the Ukrainians are certainly putting those Bradleys to good use.
(https://i.imgur.com/tpj5NPs.jpg)
The US Army is looking to replace the Bradley with an Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle. Edging closer and closer to robot vs robot warfare.
Rise of the machines!
Ukraine launches successful drone attack on oil depot near St Petersburg (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26885)
The cherry on top is that the war coming uncomfortably close causes a lot of anxiety in Russian oligarchs, particularly Putin himself. When this sort of thing happened last year, IIRC he spent a lot of time "inspecting" his bunker and was outraged that a Ukrainian drone came very close to one of his mansions.
(https://i.imgur.com/TD9Y9P0l.jpeg)
Russian losses climb back to near 1000. Russia lost a whopping 20 tanks yesterday.
Reuters renames its section regarding the war (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-renames-tab-from-ukraine-crisis-to-russia-and-ukraine-at-war/) from the vague and mildly misleading "Ukraine crisis" (what is the nature of the crisis and who is causing it and how?) to "Russia and Ukraine at war".
Imho, "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is the most direct and factually accurate way of putting it. It's definitely a war, declared or not. Specifically, it's an invasion of Ukrainian territory. And Russia is the invader. Those are just the plain facts of the matter.
So kudos to Reuters for clearing things up somewhat and being a bit more direct about the situation.
Near Krynky (hotspot south of the Dniper river), a Russian drone operator callsign Moses posted online that he would destroy Ukrainian drone operator callsign Magyar (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Brovdi).
The next post was Moses' wife informing everyone that Moses had died.
Taking part in Russian aggression is bad for your health.
Introducing the new Olympic uniforms for team Russia!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GA6-8n7XIAE_74C?format=jpg&name=small)
I don't know if it's good or bad that Russia's elite forces are equipped with Iranian drones and N Korean shells, LOL. As for Russia invading Europe any time soon; that has to be straight from RT's Russian-balls inflation desk.
Quote from: Cassia on January 23, 2024, 09:34:31 AMI don't know if it's good or bad that Russia's elite forces are equipped with Iranian drones and N Korean shells, LOL.
Bad. But the silver lining is apparently the North Korean shells are so low quality that the range and accuracy is diminished and they might even be damaging Russian guns. The Russians have a similar but far less successful version of "sign my rocket" and a Russian-owned North Korean shell is signed "Trump 2024" :/
(https://i.imgur.com/MNo7BfDl.jpeg)
22 tanks! 51 artillery! 🔥
High attrition rate, likely due to the renewed push to the valuable prize that is the bombed-out town of Avdiivka.
Another interesting thing is the successful Ukrainian strike on the oil terminal near St Petersburg and other parts of Russia. Russian air defense is evidently lacking within Russian borders because they deployed so much to the front lines and especially Crimea. So now they're moving some from Ukraine back to Russia.
It's all a precarious balancing act and with their losses, sooner or later there will be holes in their air coverage, which will allow for a flurry of successful strikes that will allow for even more strikes...
NATO signs contracts for contracts to buy 220,000 155-millimeter artillery shells (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/nato-buys-artillery-shells-worth-1-2-billion/) (worth $1.2 billion usd)
A Russian troop recorded a video while he was dying on the battlefield (his vehicle was hit by fpv drone), first complaining that the painkillers weren't working, that his comrades were probably already dead in a strange, mildly disappointed way, like he's reacting to a package in the mail being delayed for a few days.
But what got me was him saying to tell his son he loves him. It kinda pulled on my heartstrings a bit, and then it infuriated me because he intentionally put himself at risk by going on some weird imperial adventure in Ukraine. He risked having his son grow up without his father. He set everything in motion for his own death and then he has the nerve to say something like that.
If you want to say it, say it in person in Russia, where you belong. Where you'd live.
The sheer pointlessness and stupidity of joining an offensive war where you'd likely kill other people's dads and mothers and kids or die in the attempt. "Tell my son I love him" What meaningless words. What does an invader - a butcher, a torturer, an oppressor - know of love? (even if he doesn't personally do any of that stuff, he would surely be directly supporting it and making it happen regardless)
If you truly love your son, stay the F home in Russia and hug your son! The Ukrainians don't want to have to kill him (but will to protect their own families) and he presumably doesn't want to die, so the obvious winning solution for everyone is to live in peace. Instead, he's throwing his life away for nothing. Shameful.
Miraculosuly, he lived. But he's going to have grievous injuries forever and he's entirely to blame for that. He could be playing catch with his son right now, instead his son will be wheeling him around. He better find a way to make good on his words in the remainder of his life.
Turkey approves Sweden for NATO membership (https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/europe/turkey-vote-sweden-nato-intl/index.html)
(https://i.imgur.com/5q2Bl53l.jpeg)
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 23, 2024, 04:53:22 PMA Russian troop recorded a video while he was dying on the battlefield (his vehicle was hit by fpv drone), first complaining that the painkillers weren't working, that his comrades were probably already dead in a strange, mildly disappointed way, like he's reacting to a package in the mail being delayed for a few days.
But what got me was him saying to tell his son he loves him. It kinda pulled on my heartstrings a bit, and then it infuriated me because he intentionally put himself at risk by going on some weird imperial adventure in Ukraine. He risked having his son grow up without his father. He set everything in motion for his own death and then he has the nerve to say something like that.
If you want to say it, say it in person in Russia, where you belong. Where you'd live.
The sheer pointlessness and stupidity of joining an offensive war where you'd likely kill other people's dads and mothers and kids or die in the attempt. "Tell my son I love him" What meaningless words. What does an invader - a butcher, a torturer, an oppressor - know of love? (even if he doesn't personally do any of that stuff, he would surely be directly supporting it and making it happen regardless)
If you truly love your son, stay the F home in Russia and hug your son! The Ukrainians don't want to have to kill him (but will to protect their own families) and he presumably doesn't want to die, so the obvious winning solution for everyone is to live in peace. Instead, he's throwing his life away for nothing. Shameful.
Miraculosuly, he lived. But he's going to have grievous injuries forever and he's entirely to blame for that. He could be playing catch with his son right now, instead his son will be wheeling him around. He better find a way to make good on his words in the remainder of his life.
Just want to point out that many, perhaps even most, of the Russian troops dying in Ukraine are conscripts. While it's a stretch to say these conscripts don't have a choice that choice may be prison or the battlefield.
Quote from: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2024, 09:22:46 AMJust want to point out that many, perhaps even most, of the Russian troops dying in Ukraine are conscripts. While it's a stretch to say these conscripts don't have a choice that choice may be prison or the battlefield.
Afaik, they still mostly use the contract/volunteer system - hence the billboards and the monetary incentives. If they were dragging people away at gunpoint, such things would be unnecessary.
And as the Ukrainians repeatedly point out, some mobilized Russians opt for jail time instead of attacking fellow slavs. Hell, even some inmates already in Russian prisons have reportedly turned down Wagner recruiters as well recruiters from the Russian government.
And finally, there's the surrender hotline or simply deserting, which can of course be dangerous, but obviously so is assaulting along roads literred with the corpses of those who were previously on assault.
This idea that Russian troops have no choice in any of this is pervasive but wrong, as evidenced by those who have made better choices.
An Il-76 military transport plane crashed in Russia today (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-military-plane-crash-ukraine-prisoners-of-war-belgorod-rcna135411)
Russia blames Ukraine (feigned surprise) and says that Ukraine shot down the plane, deliberately killing its own POWs for some reason (the motivation is a bit dubious)
Meanwhile, Ukraine says that one of the alleged victims on board the plane was a POW who had already been swapped and is safe and sound in Ukraine (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/24/7438688/). So - and I know this may come as a shock - Russia might be lying about something. Russia lying about a plane crash isn't exactly a new thing either, as Prigozhin might've briefly attested to. Other details aren't adding up, either (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/24/7438698/). Zelenskyy's office says it is preparing a statement on this shortly.
Currently, all we know for certain is that an Il-76 military transport plane crashed in Russia.
Russian state media also produced a list of French mercenaries killed in the Kharkiv attack (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/27095) that struck a residential high-rise building. Footage showed civilians with grievous injuries, including an elderly woman whose face was stained with blood. 18 civilians were killed.
The Russian government would have us believe that these French mercenaries were embedded with babushkas and children for some strange reason and then abruptly vanished when the missiles hit, leaving no trace of their existence.
This is the same "news" agency that published a premature victory celebration (https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60562240) for Putin, congratulating him on his successful invasion of Ukraine on February 26th 2022 before deleting it.
Orban reportedly supports Sweden joining NATO (https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/24/europe/hungary-supports-sweden-nato-bid-intl/index.html)
I'm waiting for the catch...
Ukrainian drones hit oil refinery near Tuapse in Russia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/drones-hit-oil-refinery-in-russia/) (small city east of Crimea, along the Black Sea)
In a pickle: Girkin sentenced to four years in prison (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-warlord-girkin-sentenced-to-4-years-on-extremism-charges/)
Igor Girkin played a pivotal role in the initial 2014 invasion as well as the destruction of a Dutch civilian passanger jet with Russian AA.
He has since been busy throwing his support behind a nationalist faction seeking to intensify the war and was somewhat critical of Putin, which landed him in jail after Putin became conspicuously thin-skinned following the failed Wagner coup.
(https://i.imgur.com/0zKiZDul.jpeg)
30 tanks in one day! WOW!
59 artillery, too!
These loss figures are way too high to just be one day's tally. There has to be a typo or glitch or something, because I've been watching it day in and day out and these figures are near double what's to be expected on a busy day.
I eagerly await an official UA write-up about this.
Turkey fully ratifies Sweden's admission to NATO (https://kyivindependent.com/turkey-formally-ratifies-swedens-nato-accession/)
It's about time! 🫡
I think I figured out why the recent Russian losses are so high:
HIMARS o'clock on a Russian training camp (https://www.newsweek.com/russians-blame-location-leak-himars-drone-pilots-1864002)
QuoteKyiv's forces attacked a Russian military training ground in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region on Wednesday, striking a group of drone pilots using a U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), according to local reports.
In a post on Telegram, Russian military blogger Vladimir Romanov said some drone operators said they could have been struck near the city of Ilovaisk because the head of the Sudoplatov (or "Judgment Day") group carelessly gave out coordinates on its positions to "strangers" via a bot on "where to come for training."
LMAO they actually gave out their base location to an unknown party via what I'm assuming was a text message. "Hello, is this the Kremlin? I'm the queen of Engdland and I need $$$ for a plane ticket back to Englind to take back my thrown and slap Liz Trust. Please wire me 100 000 rubles via my paypal link" IDIOTS!
More discrepancies (https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/25/europe/russian-plane-crash-belgorod-ukraine-intl/index.html) in the Il-76 plane crash mystery
The latest is that only 5 bodies made it to the morgue, despite Russia saying that dozens were killed. This isn't a t-90, so we shouldn't expect the bodies to have been atomized. Very strange that so few bodies were recovered.
QuoteAndriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (DI), told CNN the number of bodies brought to the morgue matched the number of crew members on the plane. "No other bodies were detected," he said.
Moscow claimed all 74 people on board – comprising six crew members, three military escorts and 65 Ukrainian servicemen – were killed in the crash.
Russia refuses an international investigation into the crash (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-currently-refuses-international-commission-to-investigate-il-76-crash/)
If everything is as they say, wouldn't they welcome the opportunity to vindicate themselves and show Ukraine to be in the wrong?
Quote from: Hydra009 on January 26, 2024, 11:00:59 AMRussia refuses an international investigation into the crash (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-currently-refuses-international-commission-to-investigate-il-76-crash/)
If everything is as they say, wouldn't they welcome the opportunity to vindicate themselves and show Ukraine to be in the wrong?
Pretty much like Donald. Deny and delay everything in order to keep putting off proving your innocense.
Hope you made backups: Ukrainian hackers wipe out 2 petabytes of data from Russian research facility (https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/ukraine-hack-wiped-2-petabytes-of-data-from-russian-research-center/) (2 petabytes is roughly equivalent to 22,000 4k movies, so around 5 years of watching movies nonstop)
The servers belong to a state research center which uses "space satellite data and ground sources like radars and stations to provide information and accurate predictions about weather, climate, natural disasters, extreme phenomena, and volcanic monitoring.
The agency is affiliated with Roscosmos, Russia's space agency, and it supports sectors such as the military, civil aviation, agriculture, and maritime."
Hungarian official says he hasn't seen any evidence of North Korea supplying Russia with munitions (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/27/7439170/)
North Korea has been accused of covertly arming Russia since late 2022 and in late 2023 definitely sent over 1000 containers full of suspected munitions (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4254660-white-house-north-korea-provided-russia-military-equipment-munitions/) via rail to Russia on a route that puts it suspiciously close to Ukraine's borders.
(https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/10/2023-10-12-154426-UNSC-KN-RS-Map-FINAL.jpg)
But let's give the benefit of the doubt and assume that the governments of South Korea, the US, and various european countries are all somehow mistaken about the contents.
The Ukrainians have taken photos of the shells themselves (https://mil.in.ua/en/blogs/juche-projectiles-north-korea-tracks-in-russo-ukrainian-war/) as well as their production dates (the photographed one was from the 2000s, so relatively recent)
Ukraine to soon receive US Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-ground-launched-small-diameter-bombs-us-military-aid-russia-1865509) (GLSDB)
QuoteRussia condemned the possible transfer of GLSDBs as the first reports emerged, saying it would be an "extremely dangerous" escalation of the war.
Let's hope! Shouldn't have poked the hornet's nest, Vlad.
150km range (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Launched_Small_Diameter_Bomb). Longer range than HIMARS, shorter range than Storm Shadow and ATACMS. They're also much, much cheaper. One GLSDB missile costs about $40k, while each M31 missile (the ones fired by the M270 MLRS) costs about $500,000 and ATACMS which can cost over a million usd and Storm Shadow which can cost over 2 million usd.
This will help Ukraine hit longer-range targets - a good chunk of their supply lines and Crimea - on the cheap. And on targets not important enough to waste a Storm Shadow on. Conserving ammo is an unfortunate necessity with substantial US aid still very much in doubt.
Additionally, the missile itself can adjust its trajectory to hit targets from any angle, which is big. We saw in St Petersburg that Russian air defense had a difficult time hitting Ukrainian drones because they attacked from an unexpected direction. Presumably, Ukraine could use that same trick again and again.
I saw a report that Putin is finally getting a small degree of pushback from angry soldier's wives out in the streets with signs. He will probably wait till he wins his sham election and then bust them.
Quote from: Cassia on January 31, 2024, 05:48:47 PMI saw a report that Putin is finally getting a small degree of pushback from angry soldier's wives out in the streets with signs. He will probably wait till he wins his sham election and then bust them.
So many widdows. So many windows, so little time.
Ukraine strikes Russian airbase in Crimea (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/31/7439735/)
The extent of the damage isn't clear yet, but there were multiple explosions at that location as well as explosions in other parts of Crimea. Like a radar station hit (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/30/7439559/) in the northern part of Crimea (the airbase is located in the southwestern tip)
Russia, as is typical, claims that everything got shot down, air defense is working perfectly, and no damage to aviation happened. We shall see.
CIA chief says Russian economic isolation destines it to be an economic vassal of China (https://www.businessinsider.com/cia-chief-ukraine-war-failure-for-russia-on-many-levels-2024-1)
Before anyone sees that headline and assumes that Russia's economy just implodes and they can't afford a pitchfork to attack Ukraine with...yeah, that's not true. We're talking about decades here.
It's more like Russia's economy sags and sags and Russia becomes more beholden to China for just about everything, especially military hardware. I mean, it's not quite even two years into a major conflict and we're seeing some serious economic damage and a major demographic crisis that has been exacerbated by the war. That sort of thing doesn't get better quickly or easily. And it definitely doesn't get better with a prolonged and increasingly costly war.
Like everything else, we shall see. But barring a complete 180 by EU countries (we're talking really unlikely stuff like all the sanctions are lifted, Germany switches on NordStream, other countries reconnect to the Russian electric grid, etc), Russia's very much reliant on its few remaining allies, a handful of 'Stans, and China.
Here's a doozy from Russian telegram:
(https://i.imgur.com/YyiWxvil.jpeg)
"defenseless peaceful missile ship" Suuure.
Also, simultaneously claiming that it's a dastardly terrorist attack and that it's not true (pick a lane!) while also apparently denying Ukraine even the agency to lie - nope, it's Lenin for some strange reason.
This is the kind of pants-on-fire lying that is incredibly common in Russian telegram/media about Ukraine.
When Ukraine and Russia make claims and counter-claims, figuring out exactly what happened can be tricky, but figuring out who is lying is the easiest thing in the world.
There's now footage of the "defenseless missile ship" which destroyed all Ukrainian drones attacking it (with what? I thought it was defenseless) It is technically true that at least one of the drones was destroyed, since they detonate on contact.
(Moneyshot at 1m25sec - a shot roughly $60-70 million in the making (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-corvette-destroyed-crimea-strikes-ukraine-ivanovets-1865961)!)
Reportedly, the ship began sinking, rolled to the side, and sank not long after getting hit. Ukraine at least claims that it was destroyed. I hope those "peaceful" Russians were really good swimmers or they're likely to embark on a peaceful journey to the Moskva.
(https://i.imgur.com/Swcw72Al.jpeg)
Huh. Looking around a bit. The US ended up with one of those boats by the way of Germany. It was scrapped last year.
Chris Nardi, the Chief Operating Officer for Battleship Cove, also noted that "The Hiddensee, as designed by the Russian shipyard ... they were designed to be definitely disposable in terms of the way they were
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_corvette_Hiddensee
Ecuador to transfer Soviet equipment to the US, drawing Russian ire (https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-condemns-ecuadors-decision-to-send-russian-military-equipment-to-us-for-ukraine/)
QuoteThe Ecuadorian government announced last month that it would send what it called "Ukrainian and Russian scrap metal" to the U.S. in exchange for modern equipment worth $200 million, according to Reuters.
Washington reportedly plans to transfer the arms received from Ecuador to Ukraine to help the country in its fight against Russian invading forces.
Fantastic deal for them.
Russia reportedly urged Ecuador not to transfer the equipment, claiming that it violated the terms of the sale.
Aww what'sa matter? Did some big bad country break the terms of the deal? Like Russia violated the security guarantees it gave to Ukraine? Like Russia is violating pretty much the entire Geneva Accord every day in Ukraine?
Quote from: Cassia on February 01, 2024, 07:24:13 PMHuh. Looking around a bit. The US ended up with one of those boats by the way of Germany. It was scrapped last year.
Chris Nardi, the Chief Operating Officer for Battleship Cove, also noted that "The Hiddensee, as designed by the Russian shipyard ... they were designed to be definitely disposable in terms of the way they were
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_corvette_Hiddensee
Looking at it a little more, that vessel has a radar-controlled gatling gun. How the heck did drones get past that? Was Ivan having a little Putin branded wodka party
(https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/1001441_700bwp.webp)
Russian telegram/twitter can be downright hilarious sometimes.
(https://i.imgur.com/or2Q8JYl.jpeg)
Apparently, this guy needs a new set of glasses. Kinda hard to miss the cannon, lol.
(https://i.imgur.com/D9p9ymH.jpeg)
For comparison, Ukraine started the war with about 1000 tanks compared to Russia's 3,400. And Ukraine did lose roughly 550 tanks (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/06/ukraines-tank-numbers-now-equal-russias-analysis-a81759) and an unknown number of armored vehicles. Still, unless Russia counts every single vehicle - including civilian vehicles - in that tally, it doesn't add up to 15k.
Another General bites the dust (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Tatarenko_(general))
Lieutenant General killed at Belbek airbase in Crimea on the 1/30/2023 strike, likely from a SCALP/Storm Shadow explosion.
https://i.imgur.com/dJJsU8D.mp4
A Russian pilot was shot at Engels airbase in Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-reports-assassination-attempt-on-russian-military-pilot/)
Ukrainian media speculates that it might be an assassination plot, though it could be a run-of-the-mill attempted murder or possibly accidental.
QuoteHUR didn't claim responsibility for the assassination attempt but hinted that it was involved.
"We remind you that retribution awaits all war criminals - we know your names, addresses, car numbers, usual routes and habits," the agency said.
Intriguing. But that's their boilerplate statement whenever anything bad happens in Russia. Sometimes, they cause some very unexpected, very distressing events within Russian borders. More often, they don't. I suppose we won't know for sure until after the war.
But for now, all I can say with certainty is that the Russian pilot was shot. We don't know who did it or why or even his current condition.
Russian tanks playing bumper cars is certainly a sight I didn't think I'd see today. No wonder Russia criminalized insulting the reputation of the Russian military. But what reputation is there to insult?
And for almost two months now, there is still no appearance by Gerasimov. Shoigu! Gerasimov! Marco! Polo!
Jeez, after seeing those Russian POWs on the return trip to mother Russia, it seems Russia not only has a demographic problem, but also an inbreeding depression problem. Probably also a fetal alcohol problem.
Also, I looked it up and I'm pretty sure that Article 105 refers to murder and Article 160 refers to embezzlement, but I could be wrong. Article 105, Cargo 300, why do you guys always have to have euphemisms or code words for stuff?? I feel like I have to use a code wheel to understand half of what these guys are saying. Just be direct!
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 03, 2024, 11:24:16 PM
Russian tanks playing bumper cars is certainly a sight I didn't think I'd see today. No wonder Russia criminalized insulting the reputation of the Russian military. But what reputation is there to insult?
And for almost two months now, there is still no appearance by Gerasimov. Shoigu! Gerasimov! Marco! Polo!
Jeez, after seeing those Russian POWs on the return trip to mother Russia, it seems Russia not only has a demographic problem, but also an inbreeding depression problem. Probably also a fetal alcohol problem.
Also, I looked it up and I'm pretty sure that Article 105 refers to murder and Article 160 refers to embezzlement, but I could be wrong. Article 105, Cargo 300, why do you guys always have to have euphemisms or code words for stuff?? I feel like I have to use a code wheel to understand half of what these guys are saying. Just be direct!
WDF does every captured Russian criminal looks like he has a broken nose?
Quote from: Cassia on February 03, 2024, 11:43:38 PMWDF does every captured Russian criminal looks like he has a broken nose?
Cheap vodka and low doorframes?
They have very tough sisters.
Russians that died for their Fuhrer assembled in a post-mortem parking lot. In my opinion, this is perhaps the stupidest war ever besides the 2nd US invasion of Iraq or the perhaps the glorious Italian conquest of Ethiopia.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFerty4W8AAPVVr?format=jpg&name=medium)
Quote from: Cassia on February 05, 2024, 11:53:40 AMIn my opinion, this is perhaps the stupidest war ever besides the 2nd US invasion of Iraq or the perhaps the glorious Italian conquest of Ethiopia.
It makes the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan look nearly bloodless in comparison. And it's disasterous - burning through Russian men at a ludicrous rate and destroying a large portion of Russian's current military equipment as well as its Soviet stockpiles. Some of that stuff, like the AWACS plane and Slava-class cruiser simply can't be replaced because Russia no longer has that sort of expertise and/or access to needed components.
The fear that Russia has X number of tanks, unstoppable and numerous forces, and tons of ancient but "rugged" equipment played an important psychological role in intimidating rivals and allowed Russia to take the number #2 spot in arms export. Now no one wants that junk and rivals - especially China - are much less fearful of angering Russia. Russia could easily become like another North Korea, relying almost entirely on the fear of nuclear war to get desired concessions, but concessions much less favorable than a near-peer or important trading partner would receive.
Russia really meased up by not jumping at the chance to join the European trading bloc, then use that flow of wealth to build itself up and keep its standing in the world. Instead it made the same mistake as Germany, embraced a form of authoritarian nationalism, made enemies with several major powers at once, picked a bunch of fights around the world until things went too far and it all collapsed around their heads.
In retaliation for Ecuador selling its old Soviet equipment to the US, Russia bans banana imports from five Ecuadorian companies (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-restricts-ecuadors-banana-exports-amid-dispute-over-military-supplies-to-ukraine/)
Russia claimed that it's because a disease had been discovered in one of the shipments, but come on, anyone with an above room temperature (in celsius) IQ can figure out the real reason.
Ecuador is the world's top exporter of bananas to the tune of $3.5 billion usd a year, with Russia accounting for a fifth of that. So doing some quick math, that's up to $700 million a year in lost sales, which is no joke.
Perhaps some generous NATO countries could collectively boost their imports to make up the difference? Maybe a spiffy ad campaign to drive up sales? Putin is already portrayed as a monkey, so the billboards practically draw themselves.
I like bananas. I'll show solidarity by eating one every day. I'll my wife and sprogs to help out.
The cost of the Iranian Shahed drones is interesting (https://www.twz.com/news-features/what-does-a-shahed-136-really-cost). Iran apparently sells them to Russia at a "sanctioned sweetheart" rate of around 200k-300k/unit, despite an estimated cost to produce at somewhere between 20k-40k, so Iran is essentially relying on Putin's desperation to sell military hardware at inflated prices. Sensing that, Russia plans to domestically produce Shaheds, reducing the cost down to around 50k, which is probably somewhat more than the cost of production, but not hugely different.
Quote"It is noteworthy, however, that the Russian Federation opted to compensate for this transfer directly with gold, rather than through alternative means, such as reciprocal technological exchanges with the Iranian Government, which is a customary practice in similar arrangements."
Fascinating. I wonder why they would opt for paying with gold rather than sharing technology. Presumably, they need the gold to try to help keep their currency afloat and exchange for other currencies as needed, so it's strange that they would part with it so easily.
Also, Russians are upset that their soldiers are equipped with antique weapons (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-machine-guns-rifles-ukraine-1867366) (I'm upset about the whole targeting of civilians thing, but I guess they find different things to be mad at)
While it is true that Russian and somewhat also Ukrainian forces are using some positively ancient gear, that's not always a bad thing. The Ukrainians have been using Browning machine guns and they're certainly adequate for their intended use. And true to their reputation of ingenuity, the Ukrainians modified one as a remote-controlled turret (https://armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_conflict_war_2022/new_automated_browning_m2_machine_gun_in_service_with_ukrainian_forces.html).
In Russia's case, I suspect that they're actually upset with extremely high attrition numbers but can't express that publicly, and therefore bemoan the equipment as if that were the problem. Let us remember that Russian commanders, especially Prigozhin, often blamed battlefield defeats solely on inadequate ammo when there were clearly a multitude of other problems that impeded battlefield success.
Everyone and their mother has heard about this by now, but President Zelenskyy replaces Commander-In-Chief (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/02/08/the-dismissal-of-valery-zaluzhny-is-a-crucial-new-phase-in-the-war) (in Ukraine, unlike the US, those President is not the Commander-in-Chief) Zaluzhny with Syrsky.
Aside from yet another addition to my browser's dictionary, what's the difference? I admit, I know very little about each and therefore can't possibly say whether or not this is a good or bad thing. Though I will broadly say that the President's main task is to rally international support for Ukraine and he has done a fantastic job of that and the Commander-in-Chief's job is to give the orders to the military and to report to the President and Minister of Defense, which has overall been an incredible turn-around from an almost certain defeat a couple of years ago.
Nor can I comment on whatever problem Zelesnkyy had with Zaluzhny, though I will comment on this little burb:
QuoteIt is no secret that, as their relationship worsened, the two men also came to differ about what to do on the battlefield. Mr Zelensky and his administration held General Zaluzhny responsible for last year's failed counter-offensive. They wanted the Ukrainian army to prepare for further attacks and had been pressing him to draw up battle plans and to take on the unpopular burden of mobilising more troops.
The general rejected their arguments. He observed that his caution after the failure of the initial assault ended up sparing vital troops and equipment. He argued that he could not plan for the next counter-offensive unless he knew what resources he had. He said that it is politicians' responsibility to mobilise society—and he was right.
I also broadly agree with Zaluzhny here. You can't realistically be expected to draw up counter-offensive plans for equipment that you may or may not have by the time you launch the offensive.
And last year's offensive had the deep misfortune of being a cluster-f...munition mess with lots of stuff up in the air, far too many variables for anyone to work with. And the most frustrating thing about Ukraine going on the offensive is that they were given far less than what they asked for and Western powers often demanded impressive battlefield results before giving more. That sounds reasonable in theory, but the reality like trying to fight the Battle of the Bulge with a dozen Sherman tanks and no air support. They're powerful and useful machines, but you have too few to use them very effectively and they're operating in completely unfair conditions. So you either have to bet it all on black or play cautiously and risk letting down the Western powers with minimal gains and jeopardizing support in the future. It's inherently unfair.
Also, the President is the one who should be pulling the trigger on mass mobilization, without a doubt. And really, they should've already made that decision early in the war when Ukrainians were volunteering in droves and many were turned away. Two years into the war is far too late to still be mulling it over. Do it or don't and the President should absolutely be the one making that call, painful as it is.
I can't say much about the new guy except he seems to be a busy bee and already well versed in fighting the Russians (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/27829). I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll be a good replacement.
Doomed Russian Tank Driver Films His Own Unit Being Destroyed During Failed Assault (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/27278)
Smile for the camera. Nope, not that one.
QuoteThe video begins by showing its owner – a Russian tank driver – climbing into his vehicle. As he does so, he looks into the camera and sticks out his tongue.
Ahead of the tank, a MT-LB armored fighting vehicle loaded with Russian soldiers trundles past which the tank then follows.
QuoteThe MT-LB comes under fire as the soldiers disembark while the tank comes follows behind.
The tank then hits a mine which appears to disable it.
After firing off a few rounds the tank's crew – including the owner of the mobile phone – abandon it and try to escape on foot.
Yadda yadda yadda, most of them died, likely including the tank driver.
Seriously, just turn around. The world death rate would be lower that way.
Interesting how the nazi tattoos keep showing up amongst Russian troops. Nazi Germany was historically the main antagonist of the early Soviet Union, while the US was sending lots of military aid to Russia to keep it afloat. Since then, values have no doubt shifted quite a lot.
Speaking of, Russia has since arrested several people for "extremism" (https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/first-russians-are-fined-jailed-rainbow-colored-items-lgbtq-movement-o-rcna137465) - a man for flying a rainbow flag, a woman for wearing rainbow earrings, and another woman whose photos involve rainbow flags (she allegedly committed that crime before the court ruling made it illegal - many countries have prohibitions of ex post facto laws to avoid exactly this sort of scenario)
Apparently, a cosmetic company operating in Russia uses a rainbow-maned unicorn has to manually blacken the mane in order to not offend Putin's delicate sensibilities.
(https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/a3ZVNzr_460s.jpg)
Bad enough that Russians also have to avoid any blue-yellow color combinations. Russians are literally facing a darker future thanks to one man's near-end-of-life psychological crisis.
Another one bites the dust (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov). Getting awfully crowded down there, but more are scheduled to join them. But that could all be avoided and many lives saved if the Russian military throws Putin in the sea in their place. The needs of the many...
Black Sea Fleet Remnants:
(https://preview.redd.it/0vlfh1dvyiic1.jpeg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=a5c2a9ad0733dbe67f1c33d73395a1fcf7ec5f81)
Second one from the bottom is today's catch
(https://i.imgur.com/vYxDdfjl.jpeg)
In fairness, this was posted when Russia had a strong naval presence in the Black Sea and Ukraine had no navy to speak of, so "common sense" can lead people towards shaky conclusions, especially when it's way too early to call.
Yeah, first few days, i was expecting a ukrainian downfall any hour.
I remember looking at my phone multiplr times a day, expecting the 'convoy of death' to move in qnd finish the job.
Glory to ukraine.
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on February 14, 2024, 06:14:42 PMYeah, first few days, i was expecting a ukrainian downfall any hour.
I remember looking at my phone multiplr times a day, expecting the 'convoy of death' to move in qnd finish the job.
Glory to ukraine.
I still get lots of that. News of Russia marshaling some reinforcements or some new armored assault or some new batch of drones or type of missile. Yet the actual impact on the war is far less severe.
And while things are indeed very bad in some sectors, lots of things have overall improved, though of course that could change depending on who gets the equipment and resources they need. If Ukraine gets what they ask for, the war is pretty much over. If they get part of what they ask for, this might take a couple more years and ultimately be decided by attrition. If they get nothing, maybe this becomes a frozen conflict. If they get nothing and Russia's allies feed them equipment and resources, then maybe Ukraine hemorrhages territory until eventually Kyiv is at risk. So don't get complacent. The world is counting on Ukraine, but likewise Ukraine is counting on the world.
(https://i.imgur.com/mPT7o8hl.jpeg)
66 artillery
Happy valentines, Putin.
Go love yourself.
Alexei Navalny reported dead in prison (of natural causes, probably). Somebody will get a promotion, no doubt.
Do they have high buildings with windows in Russian prisons?
Quote from: Unbeliever on February 16, 2024, 11:46:38 AMDo they have high buildings with windows in Russian prisons?
Yet there are millions of Americans that think Putin is just peachy. A "man of god", lol. How do they manage to walk upright on this planet with their shoes tied?
Quote from: Cassia on February 16, 2024, 11:07:08 AMAlexei Navalny reported dead in prison (of natural causes, probably). Somebody will get a promotion, no doubt.
Murdered in prison or just left to die (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/16/brutally-murdered-world-reacts-to-alexei-navalnys-death-in-prison), which is itself a sort of murder. They had been moving him around without telling anyone, so not even his lawyer knew where he was for days or weeks at a time.
It's just another Tuesday for Putin and I very much doubt Russians will do or say anything, given how they've been terrorized into obsequious compliance over the years, much like North Koreans.
But for freedom-loving peoples, this is yet another example of Putin's brutality and oppression and Russia's lawlessness and cruelty towards even mild opposition against an expansionist dictatorship.
Putin's mouthpiece warned the West not to jump to conclusions regarding the suspicious death of jailed opposition leader whom Putin hated.
Meanwhile, here's Putin not jumping to conclusions (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-media-accuse-ukraine-using-black-magic-invasion-falters-1703510)
QuoteRussian media has alleged Ukraine is using "black magic" to thwart President Vladimir Putin's invasion.
Citing cult researcher Ekaterina Dyce, Russian state-run media outlet RIA Novosti reported that Ukraine's armed forces in the eastern Donbas region allegedly practiced black magic.
And let's not forget the villainous NATO (which absorbs new members by invitation, not conquest) and its psychic arsenal (https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/03/russia-western-psychic-attacks-mystics-astrology-putin-ukraine/):
QuoteThe memo, published by the Insider, a Russian news outlet in exile, outlines how the Russian Federal Guard Service (FSO), which protects high-ranking officials such as Putin, would handle the invasion of Ukraine — or any other war — spilling over onto the country's own soil. It focuses on psychological preparedness, ensuring that FSO officers would have the "moral and psychological support" needed to resist what the memo calls a potential "massive ideological attack." But the Russians aren't simply worried about the usual wartime propaganda, like sneaky radio broadcasts or underground newspapers. Instead, the Kremlin is mounting preparations for what it calls the "psychological infection of personnel" by an enemy who would manipulate them through hypnosis—as well as through unknown mystical and psychic powers. The memo warns of "psi-generators" and "hypnotic abilities" used by foreign personnel.
Be One With Yuri.
I suspect that black magic isn't as effective as defenestration...
Saw film of a Russian mother. Her daughter was raped and murdered by a Russian man who won his freedom fighting in Ukraine. He is back in their small town where the mother lives. Pretty cool, huh.
When the surviving, mentally destroyed, violent soldiers finally do return home, enjoy, Ruzzia, you earned it!
Yeah, there was a slew of violent crime when some of the wagner troops returned to Russia and were granted pardons.
To mitigate this, they no longer grant pardons (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/26/7438940/) and Putin repeatedly raised the max age of "volunteers" with recurring tours so it's basically a death sentence and has aggressively sought foreign nationals who simply won't be Russia's problem at all regardless if they live or die.
Czech president finds opportunity for 800,000 artillery rounds for Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-czech-republic-found-almost-a-million-shells-for-ukraine/) that can be sent to Ukraine in weeks, seeks help in purchasing it
The details are very much unknown at this point, but I'd hazard a guess that they're from various asian countries - almost certainly indochina and a few east asian countries since it includes soviet and nato standard rounds.
As for money, it'd be worth it to save a lot of lives and potentially shave months off the war. Russia is unlikely to stop until it runs out of hardware - which it is burning through very rapidly - and/or hits a certain amount of casualties where it's no longer realistically possible to keep sending men to the meatgrinder (and they have much less fighting-capable men than one might expect).
So the logical course of action is to see to it that Ukraine can swiftly annihilate invading forces. A small percentage of our defense budget to cripple - possibly for decades - an expansionist regime and the main security threat to a large number of our european allies. We don't get those kinds of deals often.
Denmark to send all its stock artillery to Ukraine (https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/denmark-to-transfer-all-its-artillery-to-1708245904.html)
Quote"But if you ask Ukraine, they are asking us for ammunition now, artillery now. From Denmark's side, we decided to donate our entire artillery to Ukraine. And I am sorry to say, friends, there is still ammunition in stock in Europe. This is not a question about production because we have weapons, we have ammunition, we have air defense, that we don't have to use ourselves at the moment, that we should deliver to Ukraine," she said.
I gotta say, that's sound reasoning.
And yes, Ukraine lost Avdiivka, which is unfortunate. But it was a town of 32,000 (Kherson was around 280,000 prior to invasion) almost everyone evacuated and it was likely even more costly for the Russians to capture than Bakhmut.
To capture this town of 32,000 - Putin wasted an estimated 47,186 troops, 364 tanks, 748 armored fighting vehicles, 248 artillery systems, and 5 aircraft (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-losses-equipment-tanks-avdiivka-ukraine-1870987). Yikes. Roughly 1.5 soldier deaths per civilian driven westward - not exactly a stellar performance. For Russia, another pyrrhic victory leading the way ultimately to defeat. If they wish, Russian propagandists can celebrate with vodka now - only to refill the bottle with tears later.
Russia somehow managed to lose 4 aircraft in 2 days (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-four-fighter-jets-su34-su35-ukraine-avdiivka-1870967), and surprisingly not to friendly fire this time. An Su-34 shot down close to the front lines (I think I just figured out the problem) to add to the two Su-34s and the Su-35 shot down yesterday.
And they just lost 18 armored vehicles - including 3 tanks - in another failed attack (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-video-russia-vehicles-zaporizhzhia-avdiivka-1870981)
Despite Ukraine suffering setbacks at times, the loss ratio continues to skew in their favor and Russian brute force tactics continue to incur heavy losses in exchange for minimal gains.
War materiel isn't the only thing Russia is buying to sustain its war (https://www.newsweek.com/who-konstantin-nikolaev-money-mike-johnson-1870600)
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 19, 2024, 08:39:19 PMWar materiel isn't the only thing Russia is buying to sustain its war (https://www.newsweek.com/who-konstantin-nikolaev-money-mike-johnson-1870600)
I see "they gave it back". Probably went there again through different channels. Looks like we're going to be eaten by Russia, with the help of the Republican party.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 19, 2024, 08:39:19 PMWar materiel isn't the only thing Russia is buying to sustain its war (https://www.newsweek.com/who-konstantin-nikolaev-money-mike-johnson-1870600)
Well, surprise surprise!
Quote from: Unbeliever on February 19, 2024, 09:42:32 PMWell, surprise surprise!
Indeed. My 31 years of working in defense may not sit well with some people, but I'm willing to bet that what the Russians, and the Soviet Union before that did, don't sit well, either. I'd like to think that people at any level of the polity would be loyal to said country. It's looking more and more like the Republican party is only interested in power and money, sold to the Russians. I remember seeing Magats wearing t-shirts with the phrase, "Id rather be Russian than Democrat" at the chump's run at the presidency, in 2016.
Ukrainian drone operators found a large warehouse in southern Ukraine (imo Crimea or Zaporizhzhia) full of armored vehicles, including a Terminator, prepping for a new assault
Hasta la vista, baby!
Leading Chinese bank halts operations in Russia, Belarus due to "payment issues" (https://kyivindependent.com/leading-chinese-bank-halts-operations-in-russia-belarus/)
QuoteThe news appears to be related to enhanced restrictions the U.S. announced in December 2023 to target financial institutions that help support Russia's war effort. The measures expanded sanctions authority over any financial institutions "determined to have conducted or facilitated any significant transactions...or provided any services" for already sanctioned individuals or companies involved in Russia's military-industrial complex.
QuoteMajor Chinese banks have reportedly strengthened their compliance with Western sanctions after the new U.S. restrictions were announced in December 2023.
China is willing to aid Russia, but not for free. That's a vulnerability that can be targeted. Putin does not have an endless supply of wealth and China could be *persuaded* that aiding Russia is not advantageous for their long-term financial prospects.
Drunkedvedev threatens to nuke U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Ukraine if Russia loses its grip on occupied Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-medvedev-threatens-to-nuke-us-germany-uk-ukraine-if-russia-loses-occupied-territories/)
(Why does he think Russia will lose? Cause that ain't what other Russian propagandists say!)
He dreams big in his drunken stupor, but drunken rants have little to do with the waking world.
QuoteMedvedev, who is also a former president of Russia, has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons but the threats have so far failed to materialize. His critics say that his statements are bluff rather than Russia's genuine plans and are intended to scare the West into making concessions.
A DC 5 sense motive check could tell you that. Personally, I think there should be consequences for even this. Introduce a new sanctions target per violation. That would shut him up real quick.
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/002/414/300/34a.jpg)
QuoteThere are unconfirmed enemy reports that a HIMARS strike took place against the ruzzian military training ground in Trudivske, Volnovakha district, Donetsk region.
According to enemy channels there are 65 dead and an unknown number of wounded.
Military personnel of the 39th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (military unit 35390, Sakhalinsk) are trained at the location.
Unconfirmed for now, so no link but I'll post the official write-up when it's published.
He talks about the very recent HIMARS attack I posted about at the 8-minute mark. Neither one of us have footage of the attack, but there are lots of Russian milblogger posts about it.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 20, 2024, 07:50:48 PMHe talks about the very recent HIMARS attack I posted about at the 8-minute mark. Neither one of us have footage of the attack, but there are lots of Russian milblogger posts about it.
Z-army is still congregating troops within range. How special indeed.
Quote from: Cassia on February 21, 2024, 08:20:43 AMZ-army is still congregating troops within range. How special indeed.
It happened to Ukraine too a few months ago, but that was an award ceremony and a much smaller group.
Iirc, it's only happened to Ukraine a couple of times while it's happened to Russia at least a half dozen times with no end in sight.
Official write-up (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68358008), as promised.
QuoteVideo footage of the incident appeared to show large numbers of dead.
A Russian official confirmed that a strike took place but described the reports as "grossly exaggerated".
They say the camera adds ten corpses...
At least 6 Russians attending makeshift funerals for Navalny arrested then given draft notices for Putin's war in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/media-russians-attending-navalny-vigils-given-draft-summons/)
I've always wondered about this strategy of sending political enemies off to war - it seems somewhat...not smart...to give your political enemies guns and grenades and then ask them to die for you. Anyone know if that works out well? Shoigu? Gerasimov?
There's unconfirmed reporters of another strike on a Russian base/training center, this time in Crimea. The Russians are very upset, with one guy demanding accountability from their leaders. Ha! That guy will either have a career doing standup or crushing rocks in Siberia.
Also, there's footage of the Ukrainians hitting a gathering of around two dozen Russians on some hill in Kherson region. No caution or common sense of any kind. They literally gathered everyone shoulder to shoulder and got in a nice little circle like they were planning on getting blown up. They got absolutely flattened. Game Over.
Maybe it was a drunken circle jerk.
Censored footage of the strike at 3:20. Obviously, not safe for youtube, but the screenshot gives you the general impression of the sorts of casualties we're talking about and their moronically tight-knit formation, where everyone packed together tightly mere moments before the strike, exactly as depicted at 4:17. Completely exposed and oblivious. No one wandered away and survived by accident. An extremely well-timed strike.
Dual American-Russian citizen arrested in Russia for donating to Ukrainian charity (https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/20/europe/russia-arrest-us-dual-citizen-intl/index.html)
Quite frequently, there has been a lot of negative attention directed towards people in Russia for expressing views against Putin's narrative or even just having something in their possession that offends Putinists' sensibilities, like wearing a light blue backpack, as one kid did during the early part of the war and was filmed being bullied because of it. There was one today supposedly of a Russian displaying a Ukrainian flag on their roof, but it turns out that it was because of roof repair - the insulation folded back inadvertently created a blue-yellow "flag".
(https://i.imgur.com/Jlgv1eFl.jpeg)
The past week has consistently been elevated, usually >1000 casualties with heavy artillery losses as well as logistics vehicle losses, an underappreciated contributor to the war effort compared to tanks and ships.
Plane losses have notably climbed as well. I know one plane doesn't seem like much, but it's been one every day for the past week, which adds up quick. Russia doesn't have a huge amount of aircraft operating in Ukraine to begin with, and notable because aircraft losses have normally not been high.
Sweden supplies Ukraine with anti-sub missile (https://essanews.com/swedens-potent-anti-submarine-weapon-torpedo-47-a-game-changer-in-ukraines-stand-off-with-russian-fleet,6997839384188545a)
Although Torpedo 47 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torped_47) sounds a tad generic (who named it, the Borg?) it can fire from a variety of platforms to hit ships/submarines with a range of over 20km. As we have seen from Ukrainian sea drone footage, getting nice and close isn't a problem. It also has a speed of >40 knots (~74km/hour) so it's fairly quick. Might be handy against Russian submarines, the last uncontested *notes one submarine kill* ..mostly uncontested portion of the Black Sea Fleet Remnants.
Even funnier the second time: Ukraine shoots down Russian AWACS (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-a50-plane-shot-down-over-azov-sea-military-says/)
Ironically enough, not long after Russia threatened to shoot down a French AWACS operating in international waters (aka NOT Russian airspace)
A-50? More like a 50% chance it lands in one piece.
And although the Russians say they shot it down themselves (4D chess move right there), they're likely motivated to do so to deny Ukraine agency, as is often the case. They never admit that Ukraine has any power of its own. And while it does have help, Ukraine is the one doing all the heavy lifting and making it happen.
Also, the Russians say that there's no way Ukraine could make such a long distance shot, but Patriots combined with Ukrainian ingenuity and maybe a little bit of audacity and there might be a way for Ukraine to use Patriots in an unexpected ways. But who knows. Only the Ukrainians know for sure, as the Ruzzian pilots are clearly not privy to such information. Unfortunate for them.
*edit - Or a Ukrainian Soviet-era S-200. Either is good.
Zelenskyy says that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the start of the war (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-31-000-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-in-action/)
This is troubling, but not unexpected. Considering that the Russians are now at >400k casualties, and Zelenskyy recently said that the ratio is 5:1, I would've expected that number to be higher.
Earlier in the war, when Russian casualties were a little less than half what they are now, the Ukrainian defense minister said their military losses were less than the losses Turkey experienced during their devastating earthquake (https://news.yahoo.com/reznikov-apologizes-comparing-ukraine-war-122500839.html). A tactless comparison of course, but likely factually true at the time.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 25, 2024, 11:23:03 AMZelenskyy says that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the start of the war (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-31-000-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-in-action/)
This is troubling, but not unexpected. Considering that the Russians are now at >400k casualties, and Zelenskyy recently said that the ratio is 5:1, I would've expected that number to be higher.
Earlier in the war, when Russian casualties were a little less than half what they are now, the Ukrainian defense minister said their military losses were less than the losses Turkey experienced during their devastating earthquake (https://news.yahoo.com/reznikov-apologizes-comparing-ukraine-war-122500839.html). A tactless comparison of course, but likely factually true at the time.
Lots of talk from even younger Americans how Ukraine can't win. Right. What the world needs now is an emboldened, aging popular dictator with an evil plan who just won a major conquest by killing literal tons of people.
Russian casualties taking Adiivka likely surpass entire Soviet-Afghan war (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-losses-avdiivka-exceed-10-year-soviet-afghan-war-isw-2024-2)
QuoteMore Russian soldiers are likely to have died seizing the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka than in the 10-year Soviet-Afghan war, the think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.
Russian forces began their brutal campaign to seize the town in eastern Ukraine in October and finally succeeded earlier this month.
However, the victory came at a high cost — Ukrainian military officials estimate that up to 47,000 Russians were killed or injured in the battle, along with scores of tanks and fighting vehicles.
By comparison, up to 25,000 Soviet soldiers are believed to have been killed during the entire Soviet-Afghan war.
QuoteWar analysts and Ukrainian commanders noted that Russia's tactics to take Avdiivka often involved "human wave" assaults, in which Ukrainian positions were overwhelmed with large numbers of Russian soldiers on foot.
Many of these soldiers, who were often ill-equipped or poorly trained, died in high numbers.
It's worrying that Russia is capturing territory at all, but they're paying a high - and unsustainable - price for it. Russia can't go all the way to Kyiv with these tactics - it's mathematically impossible. But they can win short-term victories that dishearten Ukrainians allies and maybe sow doubt over Ukraine's ability to defend itself. And it also gives Putin a poll bump - not that he needs it seeing as Russia hasn't had real elections in a very long time - but it keeps the Russian public behind him and minimizes the sway of potentially dangerous dissent...for now.
Quote from: Cassia on February 25, 2024, 12:14:04 PMLots of talk from even younger Americans how Ukraine can't win. Right. What the world needs now is an emboldened, aging popular dictator with an evil plan who just won a major conquest by killing literal tons of people.
Yeah, a guy a work noted it and said that the Ukrainians shouldn't get weapons since they don't know how to fight. My neck spun around so fast I thought I would break it. He took it back when the second A-50 went down in flames.
Almost any country in similar circumstances as Ukraine actually would have been conquered in a week. While Russian forces didn't exactly live up to their pre-war reputation, they absolutely could have forced a capitulation if it weren't for dogged resistance, innovative tactics, and intense and largely successful lobbying for foreign aid. These guys absolutely do know how to fight to the point that now they could teach European and US forces a thing or two.
Hungarian parliament approves Sweden for joining NATO (https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/26/europe/sweden-nato-accession-hungary-intl/index.html)
QuoteOf the 194 members of parliament who voted, just six rejected Sweden's accession.
Huh, I wonder why Hungary changed their--
QuoteThe two sides appeared to reconcile, agreeing on a deal that would see Hungary acquire four new Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets.
Oh, there it is. I suppose that's how the sausage gets made.
Afaik, there are no more snags. Sweden will formally submit the paperwork to the US, they'll sign, and that's that.
Logged out: Ukrainian JDAMS hit two buildings used by Russian drone operators
So Finland AND Sweden. Way to go Putin. And if Ukraine pulls this off, they could be next. Russia has friends too, lol. The new Soviet shall be N Korea, Iran, Belarus, Syria, and Russia lol.
Lots of bad news lately.
An Abrams was destroyed in Ukraine. An Archer, too. (https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/02/26/burning-m1a1-tank-in-ukraine-loss-of-fh77bw-archer-stings-more/) Sadly, there are losses in war and even though Ukraine knocks out on average a little more than 3 vehicles for every one they lose and generally lose less important equipment, they lose some important stuff too from time to time. It happens.
Ukrainian forces have pulled back from Sieverne and Stepove villages, both of which are close to Adiivka. In the 2001 census, Stepove was 62 people, so village is a generous way of putting it. Ukraine once again has to cede some ground to preserve its fighting strength.
Several Ukrainian grain trucks stuck at the Polish border were cut open and their contents spilled out into the road. There has also been reports of nails and screws strewn all over the road near one of the border crossings. Ukrainian civilians die as a direct result of this halting of supplies and it seems that the Polish "protestors" don't care (one had a sign welcoming Putin to Poland, complete with a Soviet Union flag). The Polish government doesn't seem particularly keen on breaking up these roadblocks or arresting perpetrators of criminal activity. It's such a shame, because Poland and Ukraine had such great relations, albeit with some hiccups, before this. Now, Poland is associated with provocateurs and saboteurs and fellow travelers.
North Korea has sent 6,700 shipping containers to Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-has-sent-6700-containers-munitions-russia-south-korea-says-2024-02-27/), perhaps 3 million shells in total. Meanwhile, Europe struggles with handing over 300,000 shells (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-26/ukraine-says-it-got-only-third-of-artillery-shells-pledged-by-eu). Granted, the European shells are vastly better quality than the North Korean ones. Still, it's not enough and it would be a crying shame - as well as a completely avoidable humanitarian catastrophe - if Russia takes a swathe of territory simply because Ukraine runs low on shells. And as far as the US goes, despite Biden applying a lot of pressure on Johnson to pass Ukrainian aid, Johnson has yet to commit to anything with Ukraine and as far as I can tell, the situation there has not changed. So I remain cautiously...cautious as far as Ukrainian aid goes. Would be a nice time to crack open those frozen Russian funds though, hint hint Biden.
US allies have been watching this unfold and Taiwan is understandably upset (https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-fears-stalled-us-aid-ukraine-foreshadows-future-china-invades-2024-2). It seems that democracies cannot come to each other's aid as effectively as dictatorships since democracies can be stalled at several vulnerable junctures while dictatorships only have one. I sincerely hope this is only a short-term hiccup and not a long-term reality or Putin may be proven right, facilitating further aggression by knowing that Western unity is fleeting and easily disrupted by bad actors.
In better news, Russia lost two jets today and a Russian war criminal who had personally murdered captive soldiers was himself killed in a car bomb.
I can see the future. It's easy if you try. With the Russian dictatorship controlling Kyiv, a madman in the Whitehouse, a very Christian senate and church-run court, and the urban voting districts destroyed, the Republican patriots can celebrate with a goose-stepping military parade attended by our new friends, Putin, Assad, and fat Kim. The xtreme Dems who went "independent" because old Joe did not inspire them enough, better change their style when they venture outside their doors; they are often very easy to spot with their ear gauges, tats and blue hair. I'm sure Musk will rally around Trump and create a start-up build that giant wall around the country. Finally, we will all be safe from dirty criminal immigrants as we accelerate towards climate Armageddon and that pending nuclear war with China, China, China. Trump's revenge against the false Republicans will be very entertaining. Social Security gets repealed because we have mandatory 401ks for some. Finally, we will fix the election fraud and voting machines, and end the Clinton/Soros/Jewish elite child sex ring. We can kill off all the damn lizard people, give out free Ivermectin for all and put those pesky urban blacks back in jail, Yey!
Don't get me wrong, it's not all doom and gloom. No one's taking Kyiv, at least in the foreseeable future. There is still significant aid coming to Ukraine despite setbacks. It's just that I post about Russian stuff going boom so much that I don't often cover the equally real other side of the picture - Ukrainian hardships and uncertainty.
I said this during 2014 and it feels equally apropos now - I feel like this is very much a rehersal for similar acts of aggression down the line. If we don't put up a united front and put a stop to this in an unusually forceful way, then dictatorships will take this as weakness and license to commit even worse stuff down the line.
Silver linings:
Half of North Korea's shells don't work properly (https://www.newsweek.com/half-russia-north-korea-made-artillery-shells-do-not-work-vadym-skibitsky-1873612). I'm not quite sure what exactly they mean by that. Don't explode at all? Don't fully explode? Explode in the chamber?
Also, Russian munitions have gotten worse, though I'm not sure how much of that is due to sanctions and how much of that is due to disruptions caused Ukrainian drones and saboteurs. Also, just the strain of sending people who would otherwise be factory workers off to war might be affecting things.
This is very much a resource war, decided by the acquisition and deployment of resources. Whoever runs out of shells or tanks or soldiers first loses, and Ukraine starts with less of everything than Russia, so this aid is literally the difference between life or death for hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps millions or tens of millions.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 28, 2024, 02:22:54 PMDon't get me wrong, it's not all doom and gloom. No one's taking Kyiv, at least in the foreseeable future. There is still significant aid coming to Ukraine despite setbacks. It's just that I post about Russian stuff going boom so much that I don't often cover the equally real other side of the picture - Ukrainian hardships and uncertainty.
I said this during 2014 and it feels equally apropos now - I feel like this is very much a rehersal for similar acts of aggression down the line. If we don't put up a united front and put a stop to this in an unusually forceful way, then dictatorships will take this as weakness and license to commit even worse stuff down the line.
There are not a lot of examples of dictators turning peaceful once they start invading. Ah, but it will be pretty gloomy this time if Trump wins. The first US dictator. And it won't be for a day.
Estonia detains 10 Russian agents (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/20/7442755/)
Ukraine shoots down three more Russian jets (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ukraine-says-it-has-shot-down-three-more-russian-warplanes-2024-02-29/)
(https://imgb.ifunny.co/images/ed2fccf687246a132f69a4cfa232c4006f471e9fdffb9ccc201c422e51383483_1.webp)
Here's an article about Russia's dwindling air presence in Ukraine (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/29/shooting-down-11-russian-jets-in-11-days-ukraine-nudges-the-russian-air-force-closer-to-an-organizational-death-spiral/?sh=44e40f314bc9) that was published 9 hours ago and is somehow outdated already and undercounts Russian losses significantly. The Ukrainians work fast!
Meanwhile, Russian air defense in action:
I saw the video of the failed Russian assault he talked about. Basically, a Russian armored transport went down a dirt road, nearly got hit by Ukrainian artillery but managed to get to the disembark point intact. Most of the troops dismounted and took point by shrubs and a wooden fence (probably not the best idea, but there's hardly any cover to speak of there - everything is flat) The armored transport tried to get away but a Ukrainian kamikaze drone hit it and it was quickly engulfed in a secondary explosion. No one got out, so presumably that's a total loss. Then a Bradley took cover behind a burned-out vehicle and started annihilating the dismounted Russian infantry. They never stood a chance. They took "naps" next to something that was on fire. The Russian troops were unfazed by the spreading fire and no one moved away from it or at all. Unless some escaped off-camera (unlikely but possible), that's a 100% loss.
Bottom line: using infantry against an infantry-fighting vehicle seems like a bad strat.
On Russian telegram, there was a poster bitter that none of the Russian soldiers were supplied with anti-vehicle weapons. Hey, you get what you pay for. If you want to give them each a mosin and airsoft armor, be my guest. No such thing as a cheap war. Pay now or pay dearly later.
Germany refuses to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine, worries about the consequences (https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/)
Oops, my bad. That was actually an article about Iran agreeing to supply missiles to Russia to rain down on Ukrainian cities. Curiously, there's nothing about worrying about the consequences here. Weird. Real article (https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-germany-will-not-supply-taurus-cruise-missiles/a-68025974)
Finland: Ukraine is free to bomb Russia with our weapons (https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-ukraine-strike-russia-territory-provided-weapons-antti-hakkanen/)
'Everything' on table to help Ukraine beat Putin, Estonian PM says (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-help-estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas/)
I don't want to be too hard on Germany because they've done a lot of good things lately, but now's a great time to step up to the plate.
I think that same video of the Bradely just popped up on the twitter. Yeah, I'll just drop you rookies right here in front of this chain gun with its 30mm exploding ammo. Good luck fellas!
At least some Muscovites showed to Navalny's funeral.
Russian drone attack on Odesa hit a high-rise apartment building, killing five civilians, including a 3-year-old baby (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/2/7444680/)
This is why I don't feel bad at all about Russian losses.
The fairly recently destroyed Russian missile cruiser had an old video where the captain was talking about the accuracy of its missiles, stating that they could reliably hit the 5th story of building. What sort of military building has five stories? Imho, that was an example of saying the quiet part out loud. These bastards intentionally target civilians, especially children and women, to cause as much terror as possible. Every time one of them buys the farm or is otherwise removed from play (captured, severely wounded, desert), it makes Ukraine a slightly safer place.
My brother just showed me another video of the a Bradley bushwacking dismounted Russian troops. Very similar to the other video but with some key differences:
1) It shot up the transport as well and hit troops immediately as they were disembarking.
2) More soldiers, 10-12 afaik.
3) The Bradley evidently had to withdraw quickly and didn't get enough time to do a thorough job. :(
4) Despite getting absolutely pounded and very close to a blast wave near the end, quite a few Russian troops escaped. Though I'm not sure if they necessarily survived since soldiers can sometimes walk away only to fall down later. Either way, the assault was cancelled with >50% casualties.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 02, 2024, 02:21:33 PMMy brother just showed me another video of the a Bradley bushwacking dismounted Russian troops. Very similar to the other video but with some key differences:
1) It shot up the transport as well and hit troops immediately as they were disembarking.
2) More soldiers, 10-12 afaik.
3) The Bradely evidently had to withdraw quickly and didn't get enough time to do a thorough job. :(
4) Despite getting absolutely pounded and very close to a blast wave near the end, quite a few Russian troops escaped. Though I'm not sure if they necessarily survived since soldiers can sometimes walk away only to fall down later. Either way, the assault was cancelled with >50% casualties.
There was a movie back in the day about what an over-priced, useless vehicle the Bradley was. I think I saw a documentary or TV news report on the same subject. Nonetheless, it seemed to work out pretty well against Iraqi armor and Russian assault groups.
HIMARS bagged another Russian officer (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/himars-eliminated-deputy-commander-of-russian-naval-brigade-in-olenivka/) - deputy commander of Russia's 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade
QuoteIt is reported that Lieutenant Colonel Roman Kozhukhov was killed on February 27 in Olenivka, Donetsk region.
On that day, Ukrainian forces hit the concentration of the 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade.
The Russian command held a lineup at the monument to the unknown soldier to award individual soldiers of the brigade.
HIMARS paid a visit to an awards ceremony to make sure they all got promotions in addition to awards.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GH5WlDWW0AA7bxH?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Yep, Ukraine just bagged a Russian patrol ship (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/video-of-the-destruction-of-the-russian-ship-sergey-kotov-was-released/) and the Ka-29 helicopter it was transporting. Glub, glub.
Russia was planning on upgrading that ship by adding some air defenses (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-planned-to-install-air-defense-on-sergey-kotov-vessel/) to ward off drones. Seems like they missed that window.
Ukraine is helping to ease the workload by ensuring that as many of these tasks are cancelled as possible.
US Air Force member indicted for leaking classified information (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/an-american-employee-of-the-u-s-air-force-transmitted-information-about-the-russian-ukrainian-war-on-an-online-dating-platform/) about Russia's invasion of Ukraine on a foreign online dating site.
These leaks happened between "August 2021 until in or around April 2022", which likely compromised pre-war intelligence as well as information relating to the early phase of the war.
Between this guy and the jacksauce who leaked a bunch of intel on Discord (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Teixeira), I'd understand the Ukrainians not wanting to tell the US much of anything about its upcoming plans.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 05, 2024, 11:40:48 AMRussia was planning on upgrading that ship by adding some air defenses (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-planned-to-install-air-defense-on-sergey-kotov-vessel/) to ward off drones. Seems like they missed that window.
One might say they missed their boat.
And now they miss their boat.
UK is prepared to loan Ukraine all of their frozen Russian funds (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-emmanuel-macron-urges-ukraines-allies-not-to-be-cowards#top-of-blog)
QuoteBritain is prepared to loan Ukraine all frozen Russian central bank assets in the UK on the basis that Russia will be forced to pay reparations to Ukraine at the end of the war, the UK foreign secretary David Cameron has said.
Putin's warmongering blunder is going to become extremely costly for Russia in the long term.
(https://i.imgur.com/Ld0c0bC.png)
https://defence-blog.com/russia-abandons-armata-tank-due-to-its-high-cost/
Maybe they can beg North Korea for money?
Sweden officially joins NATO (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_223446.htm)
(https://st2.depositphotos.com/18014766/43542/i/380/depositphotos_435429282-stock-photo-nato-sweden-flags-waving-flag.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/Nx0n1SHl.png)
Czech President's plan to buy artillery shells abroad is now fully funded (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/financing-set-buy-ammunition-ukraine-czech-president-says-2024-03-07/)
18 countries contributed to buying 800,000 artillery shells and could be delivered within weeks. The countries they'd be buying from are unknown.
Also, former Commander-In-Chief Zaluzhny will be Ukraine's new ambassador to the United Kingdom (https://www.politico.eu/article/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-uk-ambassador/)
France negotiating transfer of weapons from Middle East to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/france-is-negotiating-the-transfer-of-weapons-from-arab-countries-to-ukraine/)
Germany and Italy are reportedly also attempting to negotiate the transfer of weapons from Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to Ukraine.
Equally importantly:
QuoteMacron said that his country would no longer supply shells and artillery systems to Qatar and Saudi Arabia in order to focus on supporting Ukraine.
This is big because as we have seen, the problem isn't so much that sympathetic countries don't have enough to spare - it's that war materiel is being sent to countries not at war.
This seems bizarre and counterproductive and it is but there's a reason for it: other countries have seen what's been going on with Ukraine and Israel and also to some extent Taiwan and have sensed that danger is afoot and decided to beef up their own security. That's an understandable decision but it has unfortunately led to a "run on the bank" when it comes to arms (looking at you, Poland) and Western arms production cannot possibly cope with demand, not to mention that the West normally does small orders and not the gigantic orders we've been seeing lately and of course, political maneuvering to deny Ukraine aid. This has led to Ukraine not getting all the support that it needs. So France cutting off some countries and prioritizing Ukraine is a big deal.
Ukraine stops Russian armored assault near Klischiivka, destroy 16 vehicles (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/armed-forces-of-ukraine-hit-16-armored-vehicles-near-klishchiivka/)
Quote"Repelling 18 units of enemy equipment in a few hours is not like buying flowers at a market," the military noted.
I mean...yeah, that's fair. Though I think in both cases, the objective is to have some more sunflowers.
QuoteThe Ukrainian military hit most of the vehicles and completely destroyed some of them. It is worth noting that the armored vehicles were stopped on Russian-controlled territory. Perhaps the armored vehicles will be towed away for repairs later.
Possibly, though Russian repair crews are known to have more difficulty successfully repairing vehicles and coincidentally, also sometimes some parts get sold to parties unknown. Can't be helped.
Russian advance loses momentum and starts stalling (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/world/europe/russia-ukraine-avdiivka-villages.html)
There has been a lot of footage lately of Russian convoys getting wrecked. But Ukrainian positions also get hit and the Russians seem to attack endlessly regardless of losses, which is difficult to deal with. But the Ukrainians are holding their ground for now.
2 Ukrainian soldiers hold off 14 Russian troops (7 were eliminated) (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/two-ukrainian-servicemen-managed-to-eliminate-an-entire-russian-assault-group/)
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/651/397/e3b.jpg)
Russia might have a 3:1 advantage in population, but not in terms of skill and grit.
41 Ukrainian drones attack Russian aircraft factory in Russia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/dozens-of-uavs-attacked-an-aircraft-factory-in-taganrog/)
Unconfirmed reports have it that yet another Russian A-50 AWACS was damaged/destroyed there. Afaik, that would be the first time that Russia lost one of those on the ground or on its own soil, which would be equal parts insult and injury, since they have so few, they're extremely useful and valuable, and basically impossible for Russia to replace while it's under sanctions. Fingers crossed.
(https://preview.redd.it/udpk8qkhwbnc1.jpeg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=984544a03b19b87801f955ee6c3349f949bddf6f)
No sanctions can top war-ravaged infrastructure. And at quite the inopportune time.
India says its citizens were duped, pressed into war by Russia (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/08/india-says-its-citizens-were-duped-to-serve-in-the-russian-army-now-it-wants-them-back.html)
Indian nationals were apparently in Russia for lucrative job offers targeting "gullible youths" and then sent to hotspots in the war. Lucrative job offers in Russia...*scratches head* In this case, I think gullible is no longer a subjective description, but an objective one. You'd think India of all places would be on guard against scammers. *shrugs*
India says it wants its citizens back. Nepal and Cuba say to wait in line. Also, does anyone in the Indian government really expect Putin to give back what he has taken? Ask people living in Georgia or Crimea if Putin has an "oops, my bad. I'll give it back" policy. Why does the Indian government even allow travel to Russia in the first place?
(https://i.imgur.com/5ZL99wcl.jpeg)
I don't think the Pope has bad intentions here, but having Russian troops come in your country and stay there isn't peace, it's occupation.
A just peace would be both sides laying down their arms and returning to their countries - Ukrainians to Ukraine (where they already are) and Russians to Russia.
Quote from: Hydra009 on March 10, 2024, 07:29:11 PM(https://i.imgur.com/5ZL99wcl.jpeg)
I don't think the Pope has bad intentions here, but having Russian troops come in your country and stay there isn't peace, it's occupation.
A just peace would be both sides laying down their arms and returning to their countries - Ukrainians to Ukraine (where they already are) and Russians to Russia.
Ahh...I don't trust that Pope. How can he be that stupid? Never says a word about the invasion, war crimes, prisoner of war executions or bombing of cities, all well documented. Or how murderous Putin is to any opposition. So, the invaded need courage to give up? What a dick. Same church that made deals with Mussolini and Hitler. Nothing changes.
He did make a number of statements in support of Ukraine and sympathizing with Ukrainians. So this might just be well-intentioned but tone deaf.
However, there was a Russian POW who was officially put on suspicion of executing/murdering a Ukrainian POW and another captured Russian with a "to-do" list that would put Jeffrey Dahmer to shame. It's pretty much a list of crimes against humanity. Who knows if he did any of it before getting captured or just fantasized about doing it.
I would prefer the Pope to speak with such people, conducting talks with both Russian and Ukrainian POWs, and then hear what he has to say about peace negotiations. My guess is that he would pale to the point where his robes would seem dark by comparison.
12 Ukrainian F-16 pilots will be ready to fly by July (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/11/7445866/)
By that time, Ukraine will likely have only 6 out of the 45 promised jets.
Not a great start, but at least it is a start. Certainly more F-16s than they had in 2022.
But in order to make a big impact, there has to be a big contribution. Ukrainians can't be expected to work miracles with very limited support. Some countries, especially mine, really need to wake up to reality.
Zelenskyy responds to Pope's comments, summons Papal envoy to Kyiv (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-pope-francis-white-flag-peace-talks-russia-war-rcna142713)
Quote"When you see that you are defeated and that things are not going well, you have to have the courage to negotiate," Francis said in an interview with Swiss broadcaster RSI, which was recorded last month but partially aired on Saturday. He urged Ukraine to have what he called "the courage of the white flag."
The response by outraged Ukrainians was immediate.
"Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags,"
Translated: "these colors don't run".
Also, every time I see more of the Pope's remarks, I am more and more repulsed.
"when you see that you are defeated" - what the hell does that mean? There was fighting in the suburbs of Kyiv and things really and truly seemed lost then. Should Ukraine have surrendered then? Since then, the Russians have been pushed back significantly - out of Bucha, out of Lyman, out of Kherson. And yeah, Ukraine has ceded some ground as well - the town of Bakhmut, the town of Adiviivka. But overall, the fighting is far away from Kyiv now, much farther than in 2022. I can't believe I have to say this, especially from an atheist to a religious leader, but have some FAITH!
Also, it's for military leaders and heads of state to declare when a war is lost, not some foreign interloper. Even a foreign general wouldn't dare tell another country to throw in the towel, even though he has valuable expertise on the subject. The Pope is neither a Ukrainian nor a general, so of what value is his opinion? This tendency for religious figures to weigh in on topics far beyond their expertise needs to end. You shouldn't consult a holy man when it comes to finances or politics or pregnancy and you certainly shouldn't consult one when it comes to war. This unsolicited advice gimmick needs to end. Sometimes, holy men are right and sometimes they're wrong, but neither they nor often their followers can tell the difference. So they stumble around when it comes to complex topics, only getting it right by accident, and often getting it wrong on purpose. No more respectable than anyone else's hot takes, and worse for pretending to be credible and authoritative.
Resident Vatnik: Afterlife Ukraine hits derelict Russian tanker used as impromtu Russian command post (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-air-force-strikes-russian-mechanik-pogodin-tanker/)
It was a perfect shot and they likely hit it with a JDAM , because from the footage I saw, the bridge and about a fourth of the entire ship went up instantly.
The Pope doesn't get it. Ukrainians have had plenty of time to experience the thug-life that Putin's Russia brings in Crimea and the other occupied areas in Eastern Ukraine. I guess the Pope would also negotiate with the devil. What an asshole.
Yep. Zelenskyy is right when he said "Russian murderers and torturers are unable to march farther into Europe only because they are being held back by Ukrainians". They would certainly be in Transnistria by now if not for the AFU. Maybe further west than that.
My brother is a big fan of that tank aflame with the Russian flag atop. He said that it was excellent symbolism.
War in Ukraine Russia updates:
Russian Il-76 military transport plane crashes in Russia (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/03/12/russian-military-transport-plane-crashes-in-flames-northeast-of-moscow-a84424)
Anti-Putin Russian soldiers launch two simultaneous border incursions into Russia (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68541911)
They've moved into both Belgorod and Kursk regions, taking a village in each. One pro-Putin Russian unit abandoned its defense of the border village Tetkino in Kursk region and retreated, so they're aware of the incursions but lack the combat strength to repel them for now. There's amusing footage (https://m.censor.net/en/video_news/3478133/resident_of_belgorod_region_looks_out_her_window_at_movement_of_unknown_unit_under_flag_similar_to_eu) taken by a Russian civilian of a tank with an EU flag on top driving by his house.
Russian thermal power plant reportedly on fire near St Petersburg (https://www.yahoo.com/news/heat-power-plant-st-petersburg-131500244.html), disrupting power
Russian fuel facilities in Oryol and Nizhny Novgorod regions are on fire (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/12/russia-ukraine-war-fuel-refinery-fire-drone-strike-attack) due to Ukrainian drone attacks
What air defense doing?!
There's a lot of conflicting accounts about the border incursions on Russian telegram channels.
One channel wrote that Putin's rationale for the special military operation in Ukraine was to ensure Russia's security. He then sarcastically says that he's never felt more safe.
Another says that the Freedom for Russia Legion is a terrorist organization (an odd claim to make when there's footage of them ignoring civilians in favor of pursuing Putinist forces and no reports of them terrorizing civilians in any shape or form, unlike Putinist forces) and the Siberian Battalion is mythical (which makes for interesting reading alongside footage of their infantry crossing into Russia's internationally-recognized border). He also states that "Tetkino Kursk region is an absolute lie", which is difficult to parse but I believe the intent was to claim that the border village was not captured (again, there's footage). This muddled way of thinking/speaking and denialist tendencies is eerily reminiscent of far-right "MAGA" talking points, which perhaps had the same author.
Russia's Defense Ministry says it slaughtered the "saboteurs", repelling the incursions that started at 3am Moscow time and eliminating infantry and vehicles by 8am Moscow time. Yet, at 3pm Moscow time, there's still ongoing fighting according to the Freedom For Russia Foundation. Also, the Kremlin has yet to substantiate their claims that they destroyed the incursions, though there is footage of one tank being disabled but not destroyed near the Russian border and there is footage of heavy firefights between Anti-Putin and Pro-Putin infantry, though the casualties are not clear.
The Freedom For Russia Legion says that Putinist forces abandoned some equipment when abandoning the village, which directly contradicts earlier claims about a more orderly withdrawal, but afaik the claim about abandoned equipment hasn't yet been confirmed.
What we know for now: Anti-Putin forces are still on the offensive, have not been repulsed, there is fighting.
(https://i.imgur.com/Rfwp50Sl.jpeg)
Really, it's Russia's fault for BRICS expanding too close to Ukraine and antagonizing them, thus justifying whatever they do in response.
And it's impossible for Ukraine to be defeated, so Russia should have the courage of the white flag and hand over Belgorod and Kursk without a fight because some Ukrainians have historically lived there.
Also, the people there secretly want to join Ukraine and if I were to hold a "referrendum" at gunpoint, you'd see that too.
And I don't want to say this because it sounds kinda mean but the people there are horrible people, they're like I dunno...Nazis or something (both sides of the aisle still hate nazis, right?) (and by nazi, I mean anti-Ukrainian, obviously) and so...and I know this sounds bad, but maybe some light genocide is okay? Don't worry, we totally have the civilians' best interests at heart.
HIMARS missile debris rains down on Russian s-400 unit trying to intercept it (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-invaders-disclose-himars-strike-on-s-400-sam-in-2023/)
The Russian commander was overjoyed until things went sideways and for some reason, decided to stand right in harm's way. Reality ensues.
Telegram translated what he was saying as roughly "Oh man, they hit my legs again." 😂 Dollars to donuts that saying makes its way to the flavor text of an MTG card. Red, obviously.
Russia awakes to biggest attack on Russian soil since World War II (https://english.nv.ua/nation/biggest-attack-on-russian-soil-since-second-world-war-continues-50400780.html)
A provocative headline but imho very misleading since Ukrainian drone attacks on several Russian oil refineries and border clashes is considerably different from the outright invasion of Russia during WWII as well as the state of total war during WWII compared to the current relatively limited war.
But on the other hand, I don't want to minimize the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries - they've hit about 12% of Russia's oil-processing capacity in short order (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-ukraines-recent-drone-strikes-hit-facilities-representing-12-of-russias-oil-processing-capacity/), which is quite a feat for a country currently undergoing invasion.
These attacks are no doubt distressing to Russians who have repeatedly been told by the Kremlin that they're winning and that everything is going according to plan. Apparently distressing enough to drive the vice president of Lukoil, Russia's #2 oil producer, to "suicide" (https://www.newsweek.com/vitaly-robertus-lukoil-found-dead-moscow-1879214). He was found dead in his office and early reports say he hanged himself in his office.
Quote"Before his death, he allegedly complained of headaches," ASTRA reported.
The VChK-OGPU outlet, which purports to have inside information from Russian security forces, said Robertus "did not have any chronic diseases or family problems, and on the eve of his death his acquaintances saw him in a sober mind and in good health," citing unnamed sources.
Hmmm...good health but complained of headaches. I'm no Sherlock Holmes, but I think it's worth checking out if he had any underlying illness/injury prior to his death. Because that's mighty suspicious.
I have heard next to nothing about the border incursion by anti-Putin Russians since it happened.
No idea if things are going well for them or badly or mixed. For all I know, they could all be dead or they could be halfway to Moscow or they could have retreated back to Ukrainian territory safe and sound or retreated back under heavy fire. Your guess is as good as mine. Damn fog of war.
But I do know this: Russia destroys a bridge in border village, evacuates residents (https://english.nv.ua/nation/police-evacuate-people-from-border-village-50401257.html)
Now I'm no military expert, but I don't think you do that sort of stuff when things are going great. In fact, that's something of a giveaway that 1) the incursion hasn't been stopped 2) it's gaining ground (both of which means that Putin's forces are currently still too weak to stop it, even a couple of days later, which is extremely revealing)
It's surprisingly difficult to pinpoint exactly which Lugovka village they're talking about since there's at least 5 of them in Russia. No idea which one it is or if it's so tiny it doesn't even show up on google.
Regardless, anti-Putin Russians must have made significant progress for pretty much any village to be under threat (we're talking a few hundred guys, tops) It's a good thing for Putin that the Russians have plenty of reserves and didn't put all their forces in Ukraine. Oh wait... (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-has-deployed-nearly-all-its-ground-forces-in-ukraine-stoltenberg-50401293.html)
Today's a big day for Putin. "Election" Day in Russia. The Ides of March. Vlad may not have all his marbles, but his sense of irony is still intact.
Who will be the next "President"? Will it be Dictator-for-Life Putin? Will it be that anti-war candidate Boris Hadezhdin...whoops, didn't quite collect enough signatures due to the authorities declaring that some of them are fraudulent. Disqualified. How about anti-war candidate Yekaterina Duntsova...also disqualified. Outspoken critic Navalny? Died in Russian prison under mysterious circumstances. Will Putin prevail? It's gonna be a real nail-biter! Such a nail-biter that EU president congratulated Putin on his 'landslide' win before the polls were even counted (https://www.politico.eu/article/charles-michel-congratulate-vladimir-putin-landslide-win-voting-russia-election/).
Well, at least the populace is docile and accepting of this obviously rigged election. And...cue incident after incident at the ballot (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/15/russia-putin-presidential-election-protests/). Sometimes people play dressup in 18th century outfits and twirl around like they're in a surrealist arthouse movie. Sometimes, they use disappearing ink on the ballot. Sometimes, they dump paint all over the stack of received ballots (really, that's Putin's fault for not using scantron. Get with the times, grandpa) And last but not least, they try to burn it all down:
QuoteTwo people in Moscow and the surrounding region set polling booths on fire, according to Russian media, while another woman attempted to do so in the town of Kogalym, in the Khanty-Mansi region. An elderly woman in Ivanovo also set fire to a polling booth in a school, local media reported.
A 21-year-old woman in St Petersburg threw a molotov cocktail outside a polling station, according to Fontanka, a local media outlet.
QuoteAlexander Kynev, an independent political analyst and former professor at in the political science faculty of Moscow's Higher School of Economics, who lives outside of Russia, said the attacks undermined the picture Russian authorities had hoped to create of a smooth election.
Ya think?! Understatement of the year, ladies and gents. It's a freakin' sh!tshow out there and it's a really bad look for Mad Vlad.
Ukraine hacking Russian online voting systems (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-intelligence-hacking-russian-online-voting-systems/)
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/032/468/snape.jpg)
He loves to pretend it's no dictatorship.
Latest equipment losses:
(https://i.imgur.com/wTlHwTs.jpeg)
Red is Russia, Blue is Ukraine
Granted, a lot of them were low-value vehicles, but there's a Russian helicopter, four tanks, and three artillery there compared to Ukraine's two tanks.
Putin's election inspector is completely blind. Now he's just taking the piss...
Remember a week ago, when Zelenskyy met with the Greek Prime Minister and a Russian missile hit <1 km from them (https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/06/europe/russia-missile-odesa-greece-russia-zelensky-intl/index.html)? We don't know if it was a coincidence or some sort of assassination attempt.
In another coincidence, Greece to send 70 howitzers to Ukraine (https://www.yahoo.com/news/greece-grant-ukraine-70-howitzers-185500803.html) along with:
- 2,000 Zuni rockets
- 180 guided anti-tank missiles
- 90,000 90mm rounds
- 4 million small arms bullets
You read that right. Four. Million. Bullets.
(https://blog.gritrsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ammunition-stockpile-3.jpg)
Ukraine hits two more Russian refineries (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/drones-hit-two-oil-refineries-in-russia/)
Meanwhile, the Russians hit a residential building in Odessa and killed civilians. Both sides are hitting what the other values the most.
Macron scared a lot of people in the West who apparently thought that French troops would be in the trenches alongside Ukrainians. Low-context soundbites (low information reporting) plus a fearmongering news media landscape will do that. Of course, that's not what he actually suggested and got a lot of pushback from some Allies who did Putin a favor by assuring Putin about all the things they would never do under any circumstances, which I'm positive Putin jotted down while grinning.
What a lot of people in the West were slow to pick up on is that Macron's "changing" position is more of a rhetorical shift than anything else, intended to sow doubt and fear in Putin and ordinary Russians about the outcome in the war. For example, if Russia were to advance closer to Odessa and activate any red lines that Macron hinted at, Russian war planners would have to contend with the possibility - however small - of French intervention. Fear and doubt potentially creates hesitation and Putin of all people knows the usefulness of issuing threats. Macron is speaking to him in a language he understands and in sentences that give him pause.
Macron has been using a psychological technique not often used by left or centrist leaders in the West (and virtually unknown by American Democrats) called door-in-the-face technique (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Door-in-the-face_technique). You make a big, unreasonable request far above what you actually want and then get talked to a "compromise" which is what you actually wanted in the first place. Macron wants other Western leaders to step up their military aid to Ukraine and so he starts with the possibility of deploying troops - an unreasonable request - and then hopefully gets talked down to merely increasing military aid - which is likely what he actually wants. World War 3 is not in the intent, so don't build that bomb shelter just yet!
Throughout this conflict, Western leaders have typically used the opposite technique - foot-in-the-door technique (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot-in-the-door_technique). They start by pushing for Javelins and manpads then slowly work their way to tanks and ATACMS and F-16s. If they had pushed for ATACMS on day 1, it likely would've failed. But gradually ramping up support for the most part worked, albeit with some serious roadblocks lately.
(https://i.imgur.com/TcbXv6C.png)
Russians suffer heavy losses near Krynky (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3837853-russians-suffering-massive-losses-near-ukraines-krynky-spox.html)
The situation around there has not changed very much in recent months, afaik. But yesterday, the Ukrainian marines defeated Russian marines who were trying - and failing - to assault Ukrainian positions (graphic content so no link). The Russian marines had signed contracts only a couple of months ago, which shows just how quick turnover is on that front.
It is strange that there is even any fighting over there at all since the Kremlin claims that the Ukrainian troops there were defeated (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-milbloggers-refute-kremlin-russia-eliminated-ukraine-dnipro-bridgehead-reports-2024-3). The Kremlin lives in their own little world. In that case, maybe they should declare victory and send their troops home alive.
According to ISW (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-16-2024), anti-Putin forces are still in Russia, engaging pro-Putin forces.
The Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK for short, yes I know the initials don't make sense in english, just roll with it) claims they captured 25 pro-Putin soldiers (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3840678-raids-on-belgorod-kursk-regions-russian-volunteer-corps-captures-25-russian-soldiers.html) and invite the Belgorod governor to work out some sort of deal for them. Imho, that has trap written all over it and also even acknowledging the message means contradicting the Kremlin who said they were all wiped out already. Also, the RDK is a far-right group whose leader is a neo-nazi - that said, they're technically fighting for democracy in Russia so, this is shades of Castle Iter (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Castle_Itter)...sometimes I guess you have to use a nazi against another nazi. Suffice it to say that war is a very morally dubious enterprise.
And speaking of moral ambiguity and cross-border raiding, a Russian helicopter in Moldova was destroyed (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/officials-breakaway-transnistria-blame-ukrainian-drone-strike-after-108212430) (Transnistria does not formally exist, so I won't be using that term). Russian forces there blame Ukraine while Ukraine denies involvement.
But if purely hypothetically, Ukraine were involved, it would merely be the destruction of Russian occupiers where they do not belong, something Ukrainians have grown so accustomed to doing that they could hardly be faulted for doing so by muscle memory, only erring by striking slightly outside of their own borders. But sometimes drones don't work completely correctly and maybe veer a handful of kilometers off mission, as Romania has experienced with Russian drones. If one is accepted behavior, so too must the other. Ultimately, if Russian soldiers were stationed in Russia, they would undoubtedly be much safer, so really that's the main mistake here.
Protest vote: In occupied Ukraine, the Resistance sets off a bomb at a polling station (https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-sabotage/), injuring five Russian invaders
Anti-Putin forces (Siberian Battalion) claim to have captured the Russian village of Gorkovsky (https://kyivindependent.com/anti-kremlin-militia-siberian-battalion-announces-capture-of-gorkovsky-settlement-in-belgorod-oblast/) in Belgorod region
That location is very close to the Ukrainian border, so that makes sense.
The Russian helicopter in Moldova apparently has been disrepair for years and was likely intentionally destroyed by Russians there as some sort of provocation.
Even funnier the second time: The Czech Republic President Petr Pavel really pulled off a miracle with the imminent shipment of 800k artillery shells from parts unknown. He's looking to do it again - a second batch of 700k artillery shells, again from parts unknown (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/media-czech-republic-found-another-700-000-shells-for-ukraine/).
Well, perhaps we might have a hint at their origin:
QuoteCzech officials are silent on where the shells come from. However, according to the newspaper, some of the suppliers include Russia's allies.
I can't tell if spilling the beans like this is a serious blunder (once identified, Russia would certainly apply pressure on them to stop) or genius psyop. Keep it vague enough that Putin can't pinpoint it but keep the suspicion on his allies and his inherent paranoia (it's a dictator thing) will eat him alive - suspicion without knowledge will drive him crazy and likely drive a wedge between him and one or more of his "allies". But that's just a theory, an international relations theory...
It is pretty amazing watching the moves and countermoves of world diplomats and leaders in this crisis. Quite a lot of cunning diplomatic campaigns like "release the leopards" to pressure governments and also a lot of difficult compromises get worked out, for example with Sweden joining NATO. Russia also plays its cards - threats and more threats, a provocation here, a proxy doing shady stuff there, not to mention literal video game footage passed off as war footage. It'd be a lot more enjoyable if this were an actual video game where those sorts of low-cunning tricks don't have tragic real-world consequences. Putin plays games with people's actual lives - Russians and Ukrainians and more - and he needs to reach the game over screen sooner rather than later.
I'm in your base: Anti-Putin forces claim severe pro-Putin Russian losses over the past few days. (https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/freedom-of-russia-legion-reveals-significant-1710758251.html)
The claimed losses are absolutely insane:
* 613 irrecoverable losses (I presume this means dead or permanently injured)
* 829 sanitary losses (I presume light injuries, able to return to duty after a short healing period)
* 7 tanks, 20 IFVs, 6 howitzers, etc. And not just that, there's actually quite a long list, including an electronic warfare station.
At first glance, this seems way too good to be true, but there's footage of the electronic warfare station being blown up, so at least that part is likely true.
Last year's raid was nothing like this, but apparently the anti-Putin forces have more men this time around and pro-Putin forces seem to be weaker - that push for Adiivka must've stretched them incredibly thin, especially on the homefront. When analysts say that almost all of Russia's active forces are in Ukraine, they aren't joking.
If even half of what the anti-Putin forces are saying is true, they've already dealt a very serious blow to the pro-Putin forces, forcing Putin into the dilemma of either pulling troops from the war to guard the homeland, reducing pressure on the Ukrainians OR allowing the rebels to continue to run roughshod over the borderlands, causing damage and generating unrest.
I talked this over with my brother and we would both prioritize the safety of our own country first, as logic dictates. Letting the raids continue runs the risk war production and/or supply lines being attacked in addition to a significant blow to morale, which is clearly unacceptable. But dictators don't always act rationally and Putin seems unwilling to bite the bullet in this situation. He may be inadvertently making the situation worse by not taking a strong decision early on, making defense even costlier with time.
The footage from Belgorod is wild. It's amazing how war-torn and decrepit it looks after such a brief period of fighting compared to Ukraine. Though it probably didn't start off as nice-looking. Only one area will be nice-looking again after the war.
EU to deliver only half of promised shells by the end of March (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/eu-countries-will-deliver-half-of-the-promised-one-million-shells-to-ukraine-by-the-end-of-march/)
Both the EU and US have made serious efforts to ramp up production (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-doles-out-e500m-for-artillery-ammo-and-missiles-as-it-seeks-to-match-russia/), but these sorts of things take a lot of time to scale up. The EU currently produces about 1.4 million rounds per year (in retrospect, sending 1 million in 3 months was just a tad overly optimistic), 1.7 million by the end of this year and 2 million shells per year by the start of 2026. That's roughly 300k additional production per year, which unfortunately seems like it won't truly meet demand until the end of the conflict. But perhaps the West will store large amounts of production to have for the next crisis to avert this sort of situation in the future.
This is why Czech Republic's efforts at sourcing non-EU shells is so important to try to cover the gap.
(https://i.imgur.com/v5Zpbd4.jpeg)
(https://us-tuna-sounds-images.voicemod.net/12a34679-7b61-4d3a-b8e8-391d0e20a1f3-1696214978768.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/zS0VnZI.png)
Romanian Battlegroup Getica joins the battle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_western_Russia_incursion) in the Belgorod People's Republic
Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries reduce Russian oil production by 600k-900k per day (https://businessukraine.ua/industry-experts-ukrainian-drones-have-knocked-out-600000-to-90000-barrels-of-russias-daily-oil-refining-capacity/)
For comparison, Russia produces about 6.8 million barrels per day (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/13/oil-prices-rise-as-us-inventories-fall-ukraine-strikes-russian-refineries.html) and about half of that is within striking range of Ukrainian drones. That's somewhere between about 9% to about 13% of oil production halted.
Russia is gearing up for future conflicts, not just Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-economic-military-indicators-suggest-russia-is-preparing-for-large-scale-war-with-nato/)
QuoteA number of Western leaders have warned of the long-term threat Russia's expansionism poses to NATO countries. Polish President Andrzej Duda said on March 19 that Russia may attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027. Poland's national security agency has previously estimated that Russia could attack NATO in less than 36 months.
Polish assessments fall in line with assessments made Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, who estimated on Feb. 9 that Russia may attack NATO within three to five years.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that NATO must prepare itself for a confrontation against Russia "that could last decades."
Russia has shifted to a wartime economy and planned for protracted war, which makes sense given their misadventures in Ukraine. But let's say there's a ceasefire in Ukraine tomorrow. Well, Russian war factories would not shut down but keep producing tanks and shells and missiles. Putin would not suddenly change his hawkish stance. And besides, Russia - an ally of Iran and North Korea - no longer truly has a peaceful path on the world stage, but instead one of threats and confrontation. This means either a state of tension like on the Korean peninsula or full-scale war.
And this time, Putin knows that he has to take territory quickly and ruthlessly lest he get bogged down again, and several of Russia's neighbors are vulnerable to such an overwhelming assault. While it is true that NATO members are theoretically protected by Article 5, I've sometimes wondered if many nations would truly honor these commitments if the country in question was seemingly already lost, it would mean a high number of casualties, and Russia credibly threatened with nukes any NATO country that intervened. I truly hope it doesn't come to that, but it's impossible to rule out. And let's just say that Putin is currently testing Western countries' commitments to its allies - "we're with Ukraine all the way" is sometimes more slogan than reality.
This sort of scenario seems strange given that Russia is currently fighting within its own borders, but recall that Russia was fighting Chechens within Russia's internationally-recognized borders - eventually won, then sent Chechens to invade Ukraine.
Of course, all this is moot if Ukraine defeats Russian forces, takes back its territory, and Putin's regime collapses.
France, Poland, Sweden, Finland and many Baltic states certainly seem to think Russia is going to be a long-term threat. Meanwhile a third or more of the US and a bunch of MAGA legislators actually embrace Russia's anti-LGBTQ stance and pro-church antics. I saw media explaining that a few "brilliant" American families actually left the US for Russia and, well, it isn't what they thought.
Quote from: Cassia on March 21, 2024, 10:24:51 AMFrance, Poland, Sweden, Finland and many Baltic states certainly seem to think Russia is going to be a long-term
Yes. And they would know better than the US. They have long histories with Russia and know what kind of person Putin is much better than American politicians.
QuoteMeanwhile a third or more of the US and a bunch of MAGA legislators actually embrace Russia's anti-LGBTQ stance and pro-church antics. I saw media explaining that a few "brilliant" American families actually left the US for Russia and, well, it isn't what they thought.
The "pro-church" thing kinda throws me for a loop. Do conservatives think we're lacking for churches in the US? Or all sorts of stuff catering to very niche religious groups? Or do they think that people "of faith" should be running the show? Because lots of other countries are already like that and not one is what almost anyone would consider to be a nice place to live.
There was an amusing article about a conservative Canadian family who fled to Russia to "escape LGBT ideology" (which seems like an extreme measure to avoid the occasional rainbow flag) and were not happy with the result. Strange that they don't like living in a dictatorship but work tirelessly at creating such a "paradise" here.
Belgorod residents claim that the pro-Putin Russians are bombing villages to deny them to anti-Putin Russians (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29820)
Absolutely crazy. Just bombard it all and rule the ashes? It's one thing to ruin another country, but to ruin your own? I can't think of a more wasteful way to retake territory than saturation bombardment. But those are the tactics the Russian military knows and has used successfully in Ukraine. This will also work in time, but at enormous cost - every shell that lands on Russian land doesn't land on Ukraine, every soldier fighting in Belgorod is not fighting in Ukraine, and every civilian evacuated from Belgorod is not contributing, etc.
EU leaders agree in principle to divert interest from frozen Russian funds to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/21/eu-agrees-in-principle-to-give-profits-from-frozen-russian-assets-to-ukraine)
Russia managed to sink their own fishing vessel (https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112135246620477885) in the Baltic sea, killing 3 crew members. History rhymes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident)
Edit - He dissed the Electoral College system, and rightly so. It is strange! And purposefully designed so that election victory and popular mandate are not necessarily linked, which is incredibly problematic/dangerous for obvious reasons.
What an crazy day! Buckle up, cause there's a lot to cover:
Russians fund Ukrainian drones (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29936) Ummm...thanks? Some of these donations might be a symbolic way of protesting the war, but afaik, a lot of these are by mistake - both sides try to appeal for drone help in a variety of languages without being too specific about the exact intent, so people see "3rd battalion needs your help to buy 3 drones and a vehicle!" on their feeds and naturally, there's a fair amount of mistaken identity and it cuts both ways.
Russia strikes Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-hits-zaporizhzhias-dnipro-hydroelectric-power-plant-amid-massive-attack/)
Things aren't great at the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant (https://www.newsweek.com/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-threat-update-today-1882204), either.
There has been a flurry of articles claiming that the US urged Ukraine not to attack Russian oil refineries, but Ukraine denies this (https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/ukraine-says-west-not-pressuring-it-to-end-attacks-on-russian-oil-facilities-00148673), calling it "fake information".
The Russians have been bombing residential buildings, hospitals, power plants, grain silos, farms, schools, churches, markets, bus stops, and the occasional military target for the past 2 years. If you want to tell the Ukrainians what they can and cannot do as the bombs fall in Kyiv and Kharkiv and Odessa, be my guest. If I were sending equipment to Ukraine, I wouldn't ask any questions at all and trust that the Ukrainians know best how to protect themselves. They certainly know better than I do.
And last but not least, a grisly terrorist attack in Moscow killed at least 60 (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/03/22/world/moscow-shooting). This is a fast-moving story with a LOT of speculation. What we do know for sure is that the US warned of such an attack (https://www.newsweek.com/us-warning-extremist-attack-moscow-russia-1877216) about two weeks ago. I wonder what exactly prompted this warning. Another thing I know for sure is that Russia is preparing another round of mobilization (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/03/22/kremlin-planning-new-mobilization-for-kharkiv-offensive-vyorstka-a84571), though I can't say for sure if it's because of the election outcome or due to dropping recruitment rates, but this terrorist attack seems like a remarkably convenient way to push the populace to be more favorable towards a war that has recently declined in popularity substantially after the fighting spilled over into Russian land.
I saw a headline (haven't yet read the story, though) that says ISIS has claimed responsibility for the Moscow attack. Don't know why ISIS would do such a thing, but at this point, anything is possible.
Quote from: Unbeliever on March 22, 2024, 11:46:40 PMI saw a headline (haven't yet read the story, though) that says ISIS has claimed responsibility for the Moscow attack. Don't know why ISIS would do such a thing, but at this point, anything is possible.
Yes, I saw that, too (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-moscow-concert-attack-shooting-rcna144706).
Specifically, ISIS-K. The US government allegedly has intel confirming their involvement (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-did-isis-k-attack-moscow-theater-2024-03-23/). ISIS-K is also suspected in the terrorist attack in Iran, a key ally of Russia. I won't speculate on motives, but I will note ISIS-K's list of adversaries involve al-Qaeda, US, China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UK, Australia, and Canada. They don't particularly seem like team players.
And this may be relevant - two weeks ago, Russian FSB found an ISIS cell somewhat close to Moscow and thwarted its plans to attack a synagogue (https://www.dw.com/en/russia-says-it-thwarted-planned-attack-on-synagogue/a-68463018). The FSB said they were from the Afghan branch of ISIS, which is ISIS-K.
Congress approves military aid for...Baltic countries (https://kyivindependent.com/us-congress-approves-228-million-in-military-aid-for-baltic-countries/)
Granted, they need it. But you know who else needs it? The country currently being invaded and bombed!
Some kabooms in Crimea today. I hope the Russian "decoy" paintings are up to snuff.
(https://i.insider.com/65fad0ba2417f97b87cd90f2?width=700)
That super angular abstract art piece that looks nothing like a submarine totally fooled me into thinking it was an actual submarine. Plus, it helps that it's obviously over dry land, which is where one naturally expects a submarine to be. I swear, the tires-as-improvised-armor guy came up with this one.
(https://i.imgur.com/69MGsIA.png)
Putin: "We can blame it on Ukraine...this is something they'd do...they may as well have done it...*gleefully* they DID do it!"
Stormy weather: Ukraine's Crimea attack bears fruit (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/headquarters-and-military-base-hit-in-occupied-sevastopol/)
Ukraine struck a naval communication hub, naval infrastructure, and apparently a warehouse full of missiles and artillery shells (locals reported a gigantic explosion)
Ukraine also hit the landing ships Azov and Yamal! 🥳
The Black Sea Fleet Remnants just got much more remnantier. Less than half the landing ships remain afloat.
(https://preview.redd.it/good-riddance-v0-tky9i882c9qc1.jpeg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=d129a45abc71e77b3fa4a583c193a61813905caa)
Russian losses have also been high lately after a slight lull.
(https://i.imgur.com/hil6tD2l.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/Gv6UEjjl.jpeg)
Troop losses are back to 1000/day. Very high artillery losses.
In addition to the two landing ships, Ukraine may have alao hit the reconnaissance vessel Ivan Khurs (https://kyivindependent.com/navy-russian-warship-ivan-khurs-might-be-damaged-in-ukraines-march-23-missile-attack-on-crimea/)
Russia no longer transports weapons to frontline on Crimean bridge due to repeated strikes (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-head-russia-stops-weapons-supplies-via-crimean-bridge-after-repeated-strikes/)
Sadly, my dream is dashed - the accursed bridge is unlikely to blow up while a giant convoy of tanks and SPGs roll across it, the structure buckling under them as they momentarily pause in midair before pinwheeling down in a shower of debris and pyrotechnics, falling down, down, DOWN into the frigid depths below. Even worse, the Russians are building a rail line to lessen the need for a bridge at all.
And the fact that they're willing to go through the expense of building a rail line through Ukrainian territory should make it pretty clear that they're in it for the long haul and they don't intend to leave.
France to deliver 78 more Caesar howitzers to Ukraine (https://apnews.com/article/france-ukraine-ammunition-howitzers-af44ababeef42de98170660cc1753b77)
Poland doubles its funding of Czech ammo initiative (https://kyivindependent.com/poland-doubles-its-contribution-to-czech-ammunition-initiative-for-kyiv/)
War strain: Putin mulls tax hike to fund war (https://www.wsj.com/articles/vladimir-putin-wants-a-tax-hike-russia-war-35ce6bf1)
The war costs an estimated $300 million usd a day and that money has to come from somewhere.
Russia currently has 13% flat tax - a system the oligarchs enjoy immensely - but Putin is considering changing that to a progressive tax, where the oligarchs would presumably pay more. Color me doubtful on that.
Russian milbloggers complain that Ukrainians publish inaccurate maps, which then are copied by Russians, leading their forces into ambushes (https://nitter.poast.org/AndrewPerpetua/status/1773052573747958095#m)
Did The Art of War ever get a Russian translation??
In the wake of the Moscow terrorist attack, Russian discrimination of Central Asians on the rise (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68665896)
The exact locations of all Russian electrical substations powering rail lines near and into Ukraine have been published (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-locations-of-all-russian-railroad-substations-near-ukraine-have-been-published-online/)
Poorly guarded, moderately-high cost (around 6-10 million dollars a pop), somewhat disruptive if they were to shut down. It would be a real shame if something were to happen to them. It would be especially bad if such calamity were to befall the rail line during an especially critical time, like during particularly heavy use or during a critical phase of the war.
Ukraine confirms that Russia shot down its own su-27 fighter over Crimea (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-navy-jet/)
(https://i.imgur.com/rFVGNibl.jpeg)
The Russian military was at "heightened combat readiness" at the time, which I suppose is some sort of drug slang. "What air defense doing?!" indeed.
Ya know, the US has electronics on both ends of pretty much every system. "Is that aircraft one of mine? I won't shoot it down!". Shit still happens, though. I remember how concerned the US was with the Russians, but at that time, they may have been worthy adversaries. After the dissolution of the USSR, the US bought large quantities of reactor-grade uranium from them to keep it from falling into enemy (adjacent unstable states (x'stans) with even less scruples against use- if one can imagine that). The USSR uses(d) Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors, which as the U238 fissions, yields an equivalent amount of plutonium, which is bomb material. It is, of course, one nasty chemical and physical mess to separate out, as one might imagine.
Czechia's shell-sourcing plan has improved (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/28/7448631/) - the existing plan of 800k shells followed by 700k shells had increased to 1 million and 700k, and is expected to start shipping in April instead June, so it'll be at the frontline much sooner.
The Russians shot down their own missile (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-russians-shot-down-their-kh-101-missile-in-the-saratov-region/)
Seriously, what air defense doing?
Russia launched a major massed armor assault (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-russians-lost-12-tanks-and-8-ifvs-during-an-attempted-assault-near-tonenke/) near Tonenke, just west of Adviivka. Possibly the largest single armored assault of the war so far - 36 tanks and 12 IFVs participated.
Any guesses to how it turned out?
FPV drones were hard at work and the Russians suffered heavy casualties - 12 tanks (1/3 of the total) and 8 IFVs (2/3 of the total) were lost. Ukraine hasn't released footage of it yet, but they did show a photo of the aftermath - a bunch of armored vehicles abandoned/destroyed (slightly misleading since some destroyed Ukrainian vehicles are in that photo as well, but from a previous engagement, this engagement didn't feature Ukrainian vehicles, only drones, afaik).
The only video of that engagement that I know of is an abandoned T-90 turned into an improvised BBQ grill by a drone dropping a grenade down the hatch. That tank is absolutely covered in reactive armor and it didn't matter one bit because of the open hatch.
I guess the hatch was left open because it's hard to breath in there. 🤔
Quote from: Unbeliever on March 31, 2024, 08:41:13 PMI guess the hatch was left open because it's hard to breath in there. 🤔
In a combat situation, the hatches are usually closed. But otherwise, it gets incredibly uncomfortable and the crew leaves the hatches open. And during an emergency evacuation, the hatches are almost always left open - not enough time or presence of mind to care about something like that. Cue the dozens of Ukrainian videos of dropping grenades into open hatches or expertly flying a kamikaze drone inside.
Also, Russia demands that Ukraine arrest its own SBU head (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-demands-ukraine-hand-over-head-security-service-others-2024-03-31/), which is a bit like Hitler demanding that FDR arrest his own cabinet while the US was officially at war with Germany. I mean, you can ask, but that's unlikely to go anywhere.
Generally speaking, countries that you're currently at war with are no longer willing to entertain demands, so this sort of demand-making is a bit unusual. There's a reason why in Civilization games, once you're at war with another country, you can't make any demands of them without a ceasefire deal first (in simple terms: you can't barter with someone you're trying to kill)
(https://i.imgur.com/MMmjTvil.jpeg)
(https://i.imgur.com/BH8QIGQl.jpeg)
Very strange and interesting data about drone strikes against infantry. Ukraine had an initial advantage and it looks like Russia redoubled its efforts and started gaining on Ukraine (Russia has much more resources than Ukraine, so it makes sense that they'd be able to close the gap quickly) but for some unknown reason Russian advancement hasn't been as rapid in the case of drone drops (RU is at ~200% of January value while UA is at ~400% January value) or a decrease in the case of FPV drones (RU is at ~70% of January value, while UA is at ~200% of January value). Strange because Ukraine's prolific use of FPV drones makes them the current primary threat to Russian vehicles/infantry, beyond even artillery, IFVs, and other infantry, iirc.
I'm not entirely sure what accounts for this divergence in drone statistics. Perhaps Russia simply focuses its drones on targets other than infantry. Maybe Russia relies more heavily on aerial bombs or artillery or something else. Given Ukraine's success with drones and the obvious utility of FPV drones in particular, it's very surprising that Russia wouldn't strive to match/surpass Ukraine in terms of drones. This lack of foresight might prove to be a very costly mistake in the future.
Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukraine lost 13,000 tanks, which vastly overestimates Ukraine's tank fleet.
Ukraine has only ever had somewhere between 1000 and 1500 tanks or thereabouts. Sure, the Allies have sent some tanks - but less than 1,000 tanks, and certainly less than 10,000. Quite a discrepancy!
Similar to Czechia, Estonia also finds shells from parts unknown (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/estonia-finds-potential-ammunition-sellers-to-assist-ukraine-s-defense/) but requires funding to make it happen. Afaik, these are different stockpiles - but not necessarily different sellers - from the Czech initiative, so efforts are not being duplicated.
Estonia says that the sellers are mostly outside Europe but some sellers are European. And combined with the Czech and UK initiatives, Ukraine could get up to 2 million or perhaps 2.5 million shells this year, so this find is substantial but less than the Czech initiative.
In related news, Germany just allocated €576 million (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/germany-to-allocate-almost-e600-million-for-shells-for-ukraine/) ($620 million usd) to the Czech initiative.
Bottom line is that Ukraine is looking increasingly likely to get the shells it needs this time around, which is important after last year's embarrasing shortfall and a critical stop-gap as Europe ramps up its own production.
There's a lot of really strange war footage lately. I won't go into details, but suffice it to say that lots of Russian infantry are "quitting" or "getting fired" from their jobs. I'd wager that some of it is due to the recent failed assaults.
There was also really sad footage (https://t.me/Ukraine_most_recent_updates/9109) in Russia of a babushka pushing a stroller through the mud alongside a road, the whole area reeks of urban decay and poverty, and the only remotely new thing in the whole shot is a big ol' propaganda billboard trying to convince Russian men to join up for that lovely experience.
(https://s.24.hu/app/uploads/2017/06/es1-800x450.jpg)
^ this was intended as a parody of old Soviet and imperialist propaganda, bright smiles and hopeful themes juxtaposed with the miserable reality of the situation - yet it's an almost spot-on image of what's currently going on in Russia
Russia undoubtedly has more shells, but Russian artillery systems are getting hunted down much more successfully than Ukrainian artillery (https://raw.githubusercontent.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine/master/Plots/current_artillery.jpg?). If Ukraine can wear them down enough, it'll even the playing field.
Ukraine announced that it needs 7 more Patriots (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/3/7449528/) to help protect its cities and citizens from Russian bombardment - Kharkiv is particular got hit hard.
Not waiting for the US to get its act together (Johnson delayed again, shocker), Germany has begun searching the world for countries that are willing to part with some (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/kuleba-germany-will-look-for-patriot-systems-for-ukraine-around-the-world/). Current Patriot operators (excluding the US): Ukraine (duh), Germany, Greece, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Netherlands, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, and the United Arab Emirates. Two future operators: Morocco and Switzerland (purchased but not yet delivered)
Information is ammunition: Anti-Putin Russian forces release new intel on Kalibr and Iskander missiles (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-volunteers-cyber-op-reveals-kalibr-and-iskander-missile-secrets/)
Quotethe cyber unit currently has detailed documentation on the missile production process, from the beginning of the contract formation to the supply of components and final assembly
We also now know the exact companies producing components for the missiles, which will come in handy for targeted sanctions.
Ukraine has beefed up its drones significantly over the past two years.
Ukrainian launched a massive drone assault on three Russian airbases (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30629) (Morozovsk, Yeysk, and Engels) It involved over 40 drones, so it was quite a large engagement, possibly the biggest by Ukraine on Russian territory so far. Ukraine claims 6 Russian aircraft destroyed, 8 damaged, which would be quite a big win if true. But of course, everyone is waiting for confirmation. Russian telegram also claims some damage, so it's certain that there's damage, the only uncertainty is the extent of the damage.
Ukraine reportedly has drones that can fly >2000km. So basically everything west of the Ural mountains - almost the entirety of Russian forces as well as the Kremlin - could theoretically be hit. I can't understate just how important long-range weapons like this are for Ukraine. Russian forces get torn apart in massed assaults, so they've had to rely heavily on standoff weapons, like firing missiles from Crimean airbases or the Black Sea navy. Then those get targeted, so they pull back to airbases in Russia and a Russian port respectively. This attack and retaliation cycle has put Russian bombers in a precarious position (you don't put drape tires on your aircraft because things are going great) and savaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet so badly that their role in this war is greatly diminished. Now that Ukraine is hitting Russian airbases as well - some quite deep in Russian territory, around 700km from the frontline - where will they go now? Launch sorties from Siberia?
A Russian drone spotted a Ukrainian drone opening fire on Russian infantry with a machine gun, apparently helpless to do anything about it, so it must've been a recon drone.
There was also a video of a Russian soldier bringing down a Ukrainian drone with an electronic warfare anti-drone gun only for the drone to crash and injure the Russian soldier. I'm not sure if that was an especially unfortunate accident - an "intensify forward firepower" moment - or if the anti-drone gun had less of an effect than the Russian soldier thought. Either way, it's definitely a good idea to not celebrate until you're 100% sure it's a success.
A big driver of all this is that Ukraine is now using AI to help its drones reach their target (https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/01/energy/ukrainian-drones-disrupting-russian-energy-industry-intl-cmd/index.html), even if completely jammed. This was something Russia was working on and afaik, has not yet succeeded. This means that Ukraine quite literally gets more bang for its buck when it comes to drones and Russia must play catch-up or continue to suffer the consequences.
(https://i.imgur.com/q4TlX00l.jpeg)
About the same proportion of destroyed/damaged, but Russian figures are significantly higher overall.
Armored vehicles - 535 vs 77 (~7:1 ratio)
Civilian vehicles - 489 vs 125 (~4:1 ratio)
Tanks - 205 vs 68 (~3:1 ratio)
Artillery - 129 vs 70 (~1.8:1 ratio)
Surveillance/radars - 86 vs 30 (~3:1 ratio)
Air defense - 14 vs 8 (1.75:1 ratio)
Aviation - 5 vs 6 (0.83:1 ratio)
This is roughly in keeping with the expected 3:1 vehicle losses (https://raw.githubusercontent.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine/master/Plots/current_ratio.jpg?) that has been fairly consistent throughout the war.
Russia has the lead in the Unknown/Other department, but that's by definition unclear, so its significance is also unclear.
(https://preview.redd.it/what-a-wild-day-today-was-v0-qg3i9bsk4qsc1.jpeg?auto=webp&s=e6eab1e05b8b69bd65b32ebce5346fe4396623fe)
It's been a rough few days for Russia.
I checked up on the brutal twitter accounts and it looks like Russia is still doing those armored "meat attacks". It is such an odd strategy. Maybe it was a probe. One sole Russia IFV cruising along a road in an open field with a dozen soldiers on top is being tracked by a drone. A 2nd suicide drone comes along and hits the vehicle behind the turret, and it starts smoking from the hatches. It runs another hundred yards and stops and the soldiers jump off and it immediately looks like they are being machine gunned so they must have been pretty close to a Ukranian position. The next video shows most of them all dead, lying next to the IFV. Dressing someone in a uniform does not make a real soldier.
I don't think Ukraine is doing these kinds of death-wish attacks. I certainly hope not.
Both sides found out that being in giant convoys is a bad idea (Russia's a bit slow on the uptake there), so they're trying alternate tactics. Early in the counteroffensive, Ukraine switched to using armored transports for dropping off infantry who then assault Russian positions, usually just after distracting the armored vehicles or targetting the russian artillery with their artillery, so it's a straight infantry vs infantry battle, which usually favors Ukraine.
Russia has also tried to drop off infantry, but sonetimes drones hit them before they can finish the process (hence the meat armor) or they accidentally drop off infantry near a Ukrainian IFV, like they did that time when a Bradley made short work of them.
Unfortunately, they also do it correctly and take territory and we don't see that footage. The footage we see is usually when things go badly for them.
Interestingly, a lot of war footage involves just a single Russian tank or IFV.
Maybe they're running low on operational vehicles in the area or trying to minimize losses, but there are good reasons why armor typically uses the buddy system. After all, if one tank becomes stuck or damaged, it makes sense to have a buddy to help out. Also just to cover blind spots or to provide cover fire for each other. So this behavior is very puzzling.
Russian missiles ship catches fire near Kaliningrad (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-missile-ship-fire-nato-lake-report-1887931)
It's not involved in the war, but it's indicative of overall Russian naval disrepair.
QuoteThe Buyan-M class corvette incorporates stealth technology
I suppose they're much stealthier when they're not on fire.
Ukraine hits Russian Aviation Training Center with drones (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-air-force-pilot-training-hub-hit-drones-1888328)
At least they were spared the indignity of watching a worker put tires on their planes.
Quote"Over the past night, attempts by the Kyiv regime to carry out terrorist attacks using aircraft-type UAVs and a Neptune anti-ship missile against targets on the territory of the Russian Federation were stopped," the ministry said.
Attacking a military target of an aggressor country - certainly an odd definition of "terrorism". Russia is trying its best to dilute the meanings of such terms so they no longer carry weight or to drag it down to seemingly even recrimination and counter-recrimination. But terrorism - deliberately harming civilians to sow terror and pursue political goals - is currently Russia's bread and butter and no one is fooled by Russia's misuse of the term.
Blaytmobile: Russian forces use T-72 tank with bizarre turtle-like canopy (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-turtle-tank-armor-donetsk-1888353)
QuoteNext to nothing is known about this modification, but what's clear is that it covers nearly the entire tank and massively restricts its situational awareness, field of fire, and mobility while installed.
The early cope cages often blocked turret rotation and radar and could also hamper evacuation of troops from a burning vehicle. This one appears to be particularly ungainly, but this tank is intended more for mine-clearing than combat operations and it has to slow down for that which makes it a prime target, so this particular instance of improvised armor makes some sense despite its bizarre appearance.
Afaik, this tank survived its combat outing, escorting other vehicles which dropped off Russian troops. It came under Ukrainian artillery fire, including a cluster-munition that missed (a strange choice since it's much more useful against infantry than armored vehicles). Unfortunately, this is one of those Russian operations that aren't successfully destroyed en route.
Edit - it was destroyed when it returned to base (https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/04/09/demise-of-the-iron-coat-russian-t-72-turtle-tank-destroyed/)
Russia shoots down own helicopter over Crimea (https://www.newsweek.com/crimea-mystery-ukraine-denies-role-russia-helicopter-crash-crimea-update-war-latest-1888857)
It's possible that it was just equipment failure, but it could've also been friendly fire. The helicopter was reportedly looking for Ukrainian naval drones at the time of the crash, which is strange because the Russian ships have almost all relocated further east to Novorossiysk (https://www.newsweek.com/crimea-satellite-images-russian-black-sea-fleet-left-1888856) and have adopted a defensive posture (afaik, they're still in the harbor, which is protected by some sort of barrier (https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-russia-protect-black-sea-fleet-warships-ukraine-2024-4)) So the usefulness of such operations is a bit dubious from the onset.
The US approves $138 million worth of Hawk anti-air for Ukraine (https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-weapons-russia-war-funding-95cd3466442ddd609077e9f0d11d3beb)
This comes a day or two after handing to Ukraine a bunch of confiscated Iranian weapons (https://www.businessinsider.com/us-transferred-ukraine-illegal-iranian-guns-to-fight-the-russians-2024-4) - small arms stuff but lots of it. They were intended for Iran to its Houthis proxy forces. If you're experiencing deja vu, that's because this is the second time the US has transferred small arms intended for Houthis to Ukraine.
Germany also sent a mixed bag of military aid for Ukraine (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3850729-germany-sends-new-military-aid-package-to-ukraine.html), including 6,000 artillery shells and 16 reconnaissance drones.
Switzerland has agreed to serve as the site for Ukraine peace conference (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/switzerland-host-ukraine-peace-conference-june-hopes-russia-109082617) in June. This conference is unlikely to include Russia. Its main purpose is to build consensus for Zelenskyy's peace plan and to get the ball rolling on working out a post-war Ukraine. The actual peacemaking will take place at a later time, possibly with Putin's successor.
QuoteRussian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned last week that prospective negotiations to end the fighting in Ukraine could be successful only if they take Moscow's interests into account, dismissing a planned round of peace talks as a Western ruse to rally broader international support for Kyiv.
Even a broken clock is right sometimes. Yes, it's to rally international support behind Zelenskyy's peace plan.
QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin has said there will be no peace in Ukraine until Russia's goals are met.
These goals are based on fake perceptions of reality (for example, one goal is to end the war in Donbass - allegedly undertaken by Ukraine, but is in actuality the direct result of the 2014 invasion of Russian troops across the border - the simple and obvious end of that conflict would simply be to take Russian troops back to Russia) or can never realistically be met (demilitarization? Why would a country being bombed demilitarize??) Additionally, some of the demands would set the stage for the dismantling of Ukraine as a country and the destruction of Ukrainians as a people. Hence the lack of serious peace talks by both sides. Because you can't talk someone down from genocide.
The European Parliament refuses to sign off on an audit of the European Council and Council of Ministers' 2022 budget until Ukraine gets additional Patriots (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-parliament-delays-approval-council-budget-press-military-aid-ukraine/)
Non-binding of course and easily dismissed as "theatrics", but it underscores the enduring support for Ukraine in Western Europe and the frustration with Ukraine not getting the aid it needs most at such a pivotal time.
Norway to transfer 22 F-16s to Ukraine (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/media-norway-plans-to-transfer-more-than-20-f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/)
The headline says more than 20, which while true, is needlessly vague imho.
Not all planes will be operational - some will be cannibalized for spare parts. Their arrival date is currently unknown.
There hasn't been great news lately. :/ A lot of worrying reports, though I wonder if it's because things are actually dire or if they're slightly overstated to apply more pressure to help. Unfortunately, that sort of talk is more likely to make bad actors happy than worried. They're not late to step up to bat, they're playing for the other team. But we'll see. Hopefully, both wars work out in Ukraine's favor.
In the meantime, here's some happier news:
Ukrainian partisans report desertions among the Russians (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-troops-disappearing-kherson-ukraine-resistance-atesh-1889655) Essentially, a bunch of them simply refused to follow orders and now set up in a rural settlement in southern Kherson region. Swords to plowshares? New Etsy shop? Doubtful, but they're not shooting at Ukrainian soldiers anymore. The Kremlin reads the papers same as us, and the partisans gave up their location, so it'll be interesting to see how they respond.
Ukrainian drones continue to be highly effective (https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-dmitry-rogozin-ukraine-drones-1889350)
Fighting inside Russian borders appears to still be ongoing, with a Russian soldier complaining of heavy losses (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldier-complains-losses-belgorod-total-mess-1889605).
A major Russian assault in the Bakhmut direction was repelled. We'll see equipment loss lists later, but the ballpark is that about half of 15 armored vehicles were destroyed/abandoned and the other half successfully retreated.
Possibly related, there has also been a spate of "resignations" among Russian troops near the frontlines lately. Not sure if it's a genuine uptick or the Ukrainians just have more drones in the air now. There was even an incident of multiple resignations. No one wants to work anymore.
Germany sends an additional Patriot to Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-thanks-germany-new-patriot-system-critical-time-2024-04-13/)
World events have taken another turn, Russian ally Iran has launched a missile/drone attack against Israel (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/14/iran-missile-and-drone-attack-on-israel-what-we-know-so-far).
Unlike Ukraine, this was definitely provoked, but it'd take forever to get into that and it's not particularly relevant to Ukraine. What is relevant is both countries now feel confident engaging in undeclared open war, which has many implications for Ukraine.
Although Israel has much more powerful anti-air than Ukraine and faces a much weaker opponent, Israel is now very likely to ask for and receive additional anti-air. This could affect future aid to Ukraine.
On the flip side of things, this could also imperil Iranian aid to Russia against Ukraine since every missile and drone used by Iran against Israel is no longer available to Russia to use against Ukraine.
Israel is likely to win an open war (a fact nearby countries are shockingly slow to pick up on) which has the potential to severely weaken Iran and improve ties between Israel and Ukraine and further weaken ties between Israel and Russia. Potentially, Ukraine could get additional aid from Israel, though Ukraine might have to wait until Israel is no longer in need of it, which may be a while.
A weakened Iran has implications for the ongoing Houthi operations (which have been suspiciously convenient for Russia, since the Houthis vowed to not attack Russian or Chinese ships and since trade through Russian land increased as a result of the maritime instability), the Iran-Saudi Arabia power struggle, and Iranian aid to Russia.
As always, we'll see.
Russian tank supply is strained and starting to show cracks (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/analysts-estimate-russia-s-tank-potential/)
A question often asked is if Russia is running out of tanks. And to answer that question, let's look at Russia's bases where tanks are being pulled out of storage to replaces the ones that get blown up or dragged away by Ukrainian farmers. For now, Russia is covering its loses by successfully replacing its destroyed tanks with a combination of new production and its reserves, but such work is showing signs of strain:
QuoteAn analysis of the main armor plants showed a large overcrowding of sites, which indicates that these plants are overloaded.
Simply put, there's a limit to how many replacement tanks can be hauled out of storage and sent to Ukraine per day. These bases have hit that limit.
QuoteThe demothballing rate has slightly decreased compared to previous years, but observations show that the reason is primarily a decrease in the quality of the equipment being demothballed. This makes tank repair plants spend more time and resources per unit of equipment.
In other words, the tanks in best condition have already been pulled out of storage and the remaining tanks are in poorer condition and take longer to put into service.
That said, Russia continues to have enough reserves to last it until 2026 at current rates. It seems Estonia's plan (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25526) is right on the money. If Ukraine continues to inflict heavy attrition, the Russian military will be exhausted in 2026 and will be physically unable to continue the war or hold onto its occupied territory. Obviously, Ukraine will be able to shorten that considerably with substantial military aid to allow it to inflict heavier damage while minimizing losses - ultimately saving lots of lives on both sides. But unfortunately, that's not forthcoming, so pure attrition is plan B.
Chinese expert on Russia pessimistic about Russia's chances for success (https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine-reckons-a-chinese-expert-on-russia)
He reckons that 4 factors make Russian defeat inevitable:
1) Fierce resistance by Ukrainians (fully agreed)
2) Strong international aid for Ukraine (though this doesn't seem as ironclad as it once did)
3) Industrial might combined with C&C (imho Russia has the clear advantage in raw resources and production over Ukraine, but he gives a less generous assessment)
4) Information gathering and sensible decision-making (he says Putin lives in a bubble while Ukrainians get a more accurate picture of reality)
He also states that the war has been disastrous for Putin because it has shown Russia's willingness to attack its neighbors while simultaneously showing that its military success is not a given, causing those countries to distance themselves from Russia in various ways.
Where he really goes off the rails is in suggesting that China is not a strong ally of Russia and is not helping Russia skirt sanctions. This appears to be a major blind spot.
QuoteChina's relations with Russia are not fixed, and they have been affected by the events of the past two years. Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has just visited Beijing, where he and his Chinese counterpart once again emphasised the close ties between their countries. But the trip appears to have been more diplomatic effort by Russia to show it is not alone than genuine love-in. Shrewd observers note that China's stance towards Russia has reverted from the "no limits" stance of early 2022, before the war, to the traditional principles of "non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties".
Although China has not joined Western sanctions against Russia, it has not systematically violated them.
Meanwhile (https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/12/politics/china-russia-support-weapons-manufacturing/index.html)
QuoteSince the war began China has conducted two rounds of diplomatic mediation. Success has proved elusive but no one should doubt China's desire to end this cruel war through negotiations.
This is technically true. But the devil is in the details and the Chinese envoy apparently had to be reminded that Ukraine will not cede territory to Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/ukraine-tells-china-envoy-it-will-not-give-up-territory-to-russia-as-price-of-peace) as part of a peace plan. I haven't reviewed Chinese peace proposals, but I have a hunch that they don't include Russian soldiers returning to Russia and Ukrainian land returning to Ukraine. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong about that because I would be very happy to be wrong about that.
QuoteRussia is seeking to subvert the existing international and regional order by means of war, whereas China wants to resolve disputes peacefully.
...
...yikes.
Ooh man, that's a doozy of a line! I need to get Taiwan on the horn for this one. And let India, Vietnam, and the Philippines listen in.
That sort of statement is risible and makes me immediately question everything else in the article. I suppose it is true that China is not as overtly aggressive as Russia, but China is a similarly expansionist power. They're just much more careful and patient about it, that's all.
China's dictator knows he can't trust Putin, but they will use him in his time of need. This war probably gives China something to chew on before they go in for Taiwan. It is so unfortunate the US elected MAGA-morons to congress.
Also, China watching Iran blow its Islamic wad for no effect. In fact, I read some of their munitions may have landed in Iran, LOL.
Yeah, Iran's missile attack was embarrassing and shot down by several countries.
Though I worry that such failures serve as examples for China to act more skillfully than to call it off entirely.
Ukraine deploys drones designed to target Russian anti-air (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/13/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-are-itching-to-glide-bomb-russian-troops-ukraines-new-ram-ii-drones-are-clearing-the-way/?sh=389abf87360c)
They hope to clear the way for Ukrainian jets to start dropping glide bombs on Russian positions, much like Russia has done to them.
(https://preview.redd.it/dmytro-kuleba-responded-to-the-us-urge-to-stop-attacks-on-v0-4euu01jsbouc1.png?auto=webp&s=5a9c818eae85055f96a7c53da12156b2692d2996)
Don't like how Ukraine is doing things? Give them an alternative. But if you're doing very little and criticizing, why should they listen?
Oopsie: Russian bomb lands in Russia (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/a-missile-aimed-at-ukraine-crashes-in-russia/), all drones shot down (https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russian-drones-shot-down/32907092.html) Iran isn't the only one with disappointing long-range attacks
$100 million dollar Russian radar was destroyed by 7 Ukrainian drones (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31192)
QuoteThe radar, valued at $100 million, was hit by seven aircraft-type kamikaze drones. According to sources, the Nebo-U complex is no longer operational and has "likely turned into a colander."
God I love the Ukrainian sense of humor. This is also the second one Ukraine has destroyed.
QuoteThe source added that the destruction of this radar has limited Russian troops' ability to detect air targets along the northern border of Ukraine.
"The radar blackout for the Russians will assist our troops in conducting reconnaissance, launching drones, and making better use of army aviation in this area," the source told Kyiv Post.
Ukraine's setting the stage for increased use of drones/aviation, which will make things very exciting in June when they get F-16s as well as right now.
Russian command post in Crimea hit (https://kyivindependent.com/sources-ukrainian-forces-target-command-post-in-russian-occupied-crimea/)
Ukraine spots new "cope tortoise" armor configuration again (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-used-a-tank-with-a-new-grill-near-krasnohorivka/). No word yet if this one also got blown up, but this configuration appears to attempt to reduce the effectiveness of drone strikes at the cost of literally everything else - it's big and boxy and clumsy and slow - like hitting the broad side of a barn - a tempting target for pretty much anything but drones. I'd love to see what happens when a Stugna or artillery round hits it. Hopefully, I'm not kept waiting for long.
A tale in two parts:
6 days ago: Invaders move around ammo at Dzhankoi (https://unn.ua/en/news/occupants-change-the-location-of-ammunition-depots-in-dzhankoi-partisans) - the northern part of Crimea - due to fears of shelling and monitoring by partisans (This information was brought to you by partisans, so...)
Yesterday: Kaboom at ammo near Dzhankoi (https://unn.ua/en/news/explosions-in-occupied-dzhankoy-crimean-bridge-closed-again)
Fun fact: not only did the partisans know where the ammo originally was, they saw the convoy moving the ammo and where it was moved to.
There's footage of it on Telegram. It's like the sun rising in the middle of the night, with loud "popcorn" sounds throughout. The Ukrainians must've hit a big batch.
Update: there's a photo of the aftermath - lots of burnt-out wreckage. Hard to make out. There are claims that at least one Russian air defense was destroyed in the fire, but nothing is confirmed yet.
There's footage of the new cope tortoise. Frustratingly, Ukrainian artillery shots just barely missed it several times and afaik, it is still 100% intact. It's not very stealthy, so hopefully Ukraine tracks down its base and blows it up there like they did the last one.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 17, 2024, 09:20:09 AMThere's footage of the new cope tortoise. Frustratingly, Ukrainian artillery shots just barely missed it several times and afaik, it is still 100% intact. It's not very stealthy, so hopefully Ukraine tracks down its base and blows it up there like they did the last one.
I saw they had installed cages that limit the turret arc. Desperation.
It is ironic that the regions that may have actually had a significant percentage of folks who would prefer to be part of Russia are largely destroyed by Russia. Anybody who was on the fence then probably hates Russia now. If you want to create a unified country, just try to invade them. Now Russia will be sanctioned for decades.
China made that big turn-around by being part of the world and its trade and by respecting other nations. If the CCP is so worried about their relevance that they attack Tiawan, they will be sanctioned back into their past. Sanctions work slow. But they will wreck your economy. Look at Cuba and N Korea.
Quote from: Cassia on April 17, 2024, 10:47:17 AMI saw they had installed cages that limit the turret arc. Desperation.
I just saw a picture of what's being called a "turtle tank," with a makeshift metal roof on top! It might work, it might not work, but at least it's entertaining! 🤣
Quote from: Unbeliever on April 17, 2024, 12:05:22 PMI just saw a picture of what's being called a "turtle tank," with a makeshift metal roof on top! It might work, it might not work, but at least it's entertaining! 🤣
The second one is combined with an advanced anti-drone electronic warfare module and serves as a vanguard for the convoy. The concept makes intuitive sense, but the implementation is kinda rough. To be honest, I'm kinda scared that something like this could work and the Russians could have much more success with their convoys.
Right now, somewhere around half of all Russian vehicle losses are due to drones. If they find a way to counter Ukrainian drones, that gives them a huge change in fortunes.
Aftermath of ammo explosion near Dzhankoi airbase (https://www.newsweek.com/crimea-air-base-dzhankoy-ukraine-russia-helicopter-1891155):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLXUExiWUAA_X-p?format=jpg&name=small)
Zelenskyy confirmed the strike (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-ukrainian-military-attacked-russian-airfield-occupied-crimea-2024-04-17/) and NASA fire tracker detected 6 fires going on at the base overnight.
Quote"About 30 Russian servicemen were killed and about 80 were wounded at the airfield in Dzhankoy," a Crimean-based Telegram channel called Crimean Wind reported on Wednesday. Crimean Wind is a pro-Ukrainian monitoring group that focuses on Crimea and generally offers reliable information.
I wasn't kidding about the "sunrise in the middle of the night" description.
Bombers away: Russian bomber factory in Tartarstan hit by Ukrainian drones (https://kyivindependent.com/sources-hur-confirms-attack-on-russian-bomber-factory-in-tatarstan/)
That's roughly 1300km from Ukraine - closer to Kazakhstan than Ukraine - so it's anyone's guess how Ukrainian drones managed to strike a target so far away. Russian media claims that it was a converted Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat - basically a Cessna - that did it. The Kremlin certainly has a vulnerability when it comes to Cessnas.
Russian bomber crashes (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bomber-crashes-russia-interfax-says-2024-04-19/) in the Stavropol Krai Region (just north of Georgia, between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea). It stayed level to the horizon but did a tight corkscrew path down to the ground while on fire.
This crash is important because that bomber had recently fired missiles at Ukraine. Karma.
Moscow says a malfunction caused the crash, and that seems plausible. Still, it might be a good idea to check in with the anti-air crews just in case. Rouse the sleeping ones to take over for the drunk ones. Sleep it off in shifts, like a proper military.
Ukraine claims they shot down the crashed bomber (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/defence-intelligence-of-ukraine-tu-22m3-was-shot-down-by-ukrainian-air-defense/) the same way they shot down the A-50 AWACS (they claim they shot down the A-50 with Soviet-produced S-200 anti-air (https://english.nv.ua/nation/hur-plane-was-shot-down-by-soviet-made-s-200-air-defense-system-with-240-km-range-50395689.html))
While Russia's malfunction claim is plausible, it's also possible that it was indeed shot down. We'll know with more certainty if this becomes a more commonplace thing.
Another one bites the dust: Ukraine eliminates Russian commander (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-troops-eliminated-a-commander-of-the-59th-brigade-of-the-russian-armed-forces/)
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSG48hVxxZHTg62pkB_Z_mACUa0inpWv4VpgDOsognPIXjeIMI&s)
US comes to Ukraine's aid! (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/20/us-house-approves-61bn-aid-ukraine)
There was tentative stuff before, but I didn't want to report about it unless it was a done deal. Well, it's a done deal now!
(https://i.imgur.com/KXxumYEl.jpeg)
Ukraine hits Russian refineries (https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/20/europe/ukraine-drone-attacks-russia-intl/index.html)
I found a real gut-buster on reddit about Ukraine's ongoing oil sanctions campaign against Russia: https://packaged-media.redd.it/lifzz2on3ioc1/pb/m2-res_480p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1710763200&s=6a4a27162a8596d6ff06a2fab29b3347e2b391c8#t=0
US citizen who fought for Russia reportedly killed by Russians (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/19/us-citizen-killed-in-moscow-held-donetsk-russian-media-a84907)
QuoteOn a Telegram channel previously run by him, Bentley's wife Lyudmila has said he had been "abducted" by Russian soldiers from a tank battalion, calling on them to let him go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Bentley
He certainly had a wandering history and not great critical thinking skills, which saw him increasingly under the influence of Second World narratives and also felony drug trafficking (he visited Cuba and evidently brought souvenirs back to the US). His hot takes are breathtakingly asinine and/or easily disproven - he reportedly said that the reason the "operation" was taking so long is because Russia was being careful to minimize civilian casualties. Literally couldn't drain the water from a pail even if instructions were printed on the side. Good riddance.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 20, 2024, 08:48:09 PMUS citizen who fought for Russia reportedly killed by Russians (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/19/us-citizen-killed-in-moscow-held-donetsk-russian-media-a84907)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Bentley
He certainly had a wandering history and not great critical thinking skills, which saw him increasingly under the influence of Second World narratives and also felony drug trafficking (he visited Cuba and evidently brought souvenirs back to the US). His hot takes are breathtakingly asinine and/or easily disproven - he reportedly said that the reason the "operation" was taking so long is because Russia was being careful to minimize civilian casualties. Literally couldn't drain the water from a pail even if instructions were printed on the side. Good riddance.
Holy ham sandwiches. Reports say his nice Russian friends raped and tortured him before killing him. What a way to go. He was pro-communism. He did realize that The Russian Federation is no longer the USSR, right? Why are there so many fucking crazy-ass Americans? Liked that guy who cooked himself, leaving a gibberish conspiracy manifesto.
Quote from: Cassia on April 20, 2024, 09:54:47 PM Holy ham sandwiches. Reports say his nice Russian friends raped and tortured him before killing him. What a way to go.
That's unconfirmed. We don't know for a fact that he's dead, either. But his "comrades" claim to be avenging him by attacking Ukrainians - who didn't kill him - so that's as close to a confirmation that we're going to get.
^ Fuck the chump, with a red hot tire iron. I can't wait for the day that sorry piece of shit succumbs from inhaling some mickey dee's "food".
The Russians are likely to intensify their efforts (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-likely-intensify-offensives-amid-closing-window-of-ukrainian-material-constraints/), exploiting Ukraine materiel shortages before Czech initiative ammo and US aid comes through. But when they do, it's a whole different ball game.
I'm not sure what the Russian brass is thinking right now. They know they can't take Kyiv or collapse the front. If they throw more men at it, they might be able to level three more Ukrainian towns, but what does that accomplish? What's the endgame? Putin is too scared to lose, but he should've thrown in the towel over a year ago when he probably could have had good terms. Now he's up shit creek with Ukraine getting increasingly advanced weapons and Russia relying on worse and worse equipment. Granted, the Ukrainians probably won't be able to conduct a major offensive this year, but spring/summer 2025 is going to be a helluva shock for them.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 21, 2024, 08:03:41 AMThe Russians are likely to intensify their efforts (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-likely-intensify-offensives-amid-closing-window-of-ukrainian-material-constraints/), exploiting Ukraine materiel shortages before Czech initiative ammo and US aid comes through. But when they do, it's a whole different ball game.
I'm not sure what the Russian brass is thinking right now. They know they can't take Kyiv or collapse the front. If they throw more men at it, they might be able to level three more Ukrainian towns, but what does that accomplish? What's the endgame? Putin is too scared to lose, but he should've thrown in the towel over a year ago when he probably could have had good terms. Now he's up shit creek with Ukraine getting increasingly advanced weapons and Russia relying on worse and worse equipment. Granted, the Ukrainians probably won't be able to conduct a major offensive this year, but spring/summer 2025 is going to be a helluva shock for them.
I think he was banking on his assets in congress preventing aid to Ukraine for much longer than they managed, forcing Ukraine to capitulate. Its been a long, long time since I felt good about anything congress has done but this qualifies. I only regret that aid was ever allowed to be held up at all in the first place. Trying not to think about how many dead Ukrainians that delay translates into.
I also worry that Putin has pushed every chip he owns into the pile. Failure just isn't an option for him now. Not too keen on seeing what a murdering despot with a nuclear arsenal does when his back is against a wall.
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 20, 2024, 10:02:06 PMThat's unconfirmed. We don't know for a fact that he's dead, either. But his "comrades" claim to be avenging him by attacking Ukrainians - who didn't kill him - so that's as close to a confirmation that we're going to get.
New York Post now reporting Bentley's body has been recovered. His tee shirts sums up his confusion. A communist/christian warrior, thinks he is de-Nazifying a nation under attack (from an absolute dictator) with a Jewish leader and a far-right segment of the population that measures less than 3%. He should have invested in some sort of historical education instead of assault weapons.
(https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/04/sunday-news-american-russell-texas-79987654.jpg?resize=1024,1024&quality=75&strip=all)
UK announces biggest military package yet to Ukraine (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-to-announce-largest-ever-military-aid-package-to-ukraine-on-visit-to-poland)
Quote60 boats including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft and dive boats as well as maritime guns
More than 1,600 strike and air defence missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles.
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility 'Husky' vehicles, 162 armoured vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles.
Nearly 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGWNrOMWEAAU00W.jpg)
Cheerio, old chap! 🫡
Himars strike on Russian air defense radar (https://mil.in.ua/en/news/himars-hits-russian-air-defense-radar/)
Senate passes Ukraine aid bill (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/23/senate-vote-foreign-aid-ukraine-israel/)
Now, it's on to the President, who has already said he'd sign it.
Red on red: the Russians reportedly wiped out one of their own infantry squads, mistakenly believing they were Ukrainians or perhaps anti-Putin Russians.
This happened on April 21st near Ocheretino in Donetsk Oblast (Eastern Ukraine) First reported on Russian telegram as a victory against pro-Ukraine forces, this was later updated with the explanation that there had been a "monstrous mistake" with accompanying video showing the dead soldiers and their Russian ID, IDs which identified them as part of the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade. Oopsie.
Couldn't have happened to more deserving guys.
In similar just desserts, Kadryrov may be seriously ill with some sort of pancreatic disease (https://www.yahoo.com/news/report-chechen-leader-kadyrov-suffering-160026611.html)
Speculation on his health is not new, there was a lot of speculation on his health last year, and reports spread like wildfire on telegram that his health had rapidly declined, leaving him in a coma (last year, he made a video to declare that he was very much alive and in good health, being filmed awkwardly and slowly jog-walking down a footpath. I'll give him this - he definitely proved that he was alive)
What's different this time is that a fairly reputable newspaper is saying it, citing the doctors in his hospital and people close to him. Also, his visit to the hospital - allegedly to visit a sick uncle - is now alleged to have been a false pretense and that he was actually visiting the hospital as a patient, not a visitor.
Additionally - and this raises more red flags for me than a Beijing parade - is that a recent video of his shows him at a meeting where he "sits almost motionless at the table and speaks only slowly and apparently with difficulty"
Again, I want to stress that this could again be nothing, but it's looking more and more likely that something is seriously wrong.
European Parliament condemns Russian sham election as illegitimate (https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-condemns-putin-election-as-illegitimate/)
Trump: "You can do that? Cause I'd love to do that too!"
EU: "Condemn a sham election? Sure."
Trump: "No, I mean have one."
Russia threatens to reduce diplomatic status with the US because of REPO act (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-threatens-to-decrease-diplomatic-relations-with-us-in-response-to-repo-act/)
Oh no, not the diplomatic status. That'll mean...uh... I'm not entirely sure. No adoption of Russian kids by US couples. No wait, that was already banned. No American tourists? That was mostly already a thing.
This after threatening us with nukes dozens of times. All sound and fury...
Putin's just strutting his hour upon the stage.
Ukrainian artillery strike hits Russian anti-air unit while it was preparing to launch (https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-troops-blow-up-russian-buk-air-defense-system/)
(https://i.redd.it/wjwpzqzexxw01.png)
Partisans burn down Russian ka-32 helicopter not far from Moscow (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-destroys-russias-ka-32-helicopter-moscow-video-1894567)
This after Russia allegedly stepped up security after several very similar incidents over the past two years, usually in Ukraine but sometimes in Russia.
If Moscow region is not secure, what is?