Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Finland formally withdraws from the Ottawa Treaty banning land mines, joining Poland, the three Baltic countries, and Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottawa_Treaty

In a pure coincidence, all these countries border either Russia or Belarus.

In theory, the treaty is a good idea - if respected by both sides.  Russia is a non-signatory to this treaty and even if it were, it would surely violate it and that wouldn't even crack the top 100 of the screwed up things Russia has done in this conflict.

Mines have had undeniable utility in this conflict, slowing down Russian assaults dramatically and making them far more costly.  It sucks that Ukraine has to use them - and demining the country will certainly be a painstaking process, but it's easier to clear mines than rebuild cities.  On the whole, they're a net positive for the time being.  But in the future, the aggression that mines are intended to deter should be deterred by other means.

[Cassia]

Finland formally withdraws from the Ottawa Treaty banning land mines, joining Poland, the three Baltic countries, and Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottawa_Treaty

In a pure coincidence, all these countries border either Russia or Belarus.

In theory, the treaty is a good idea - if respected by both sides.  Russia is a non-signatory to this treaty and even if it were, it would surely violate it and that wouldn't even crack the top 100 of the screwed up things Russia has done in this conflict.

Mines have had undeniable utility in this conflict, slowing down Russian assaults dramatically and making them far more costly.  It sucks that Ukraine has to use them - and demining the country will certainly be a painstaking process, but it's easier to clear mines than rebuilt cities.  On the whole, they're a net positive for the time being.  But in the future, the aggression that mines are intended to deter should be deterred by other means.

When Russia finally gives it up; I bet Ukraine's drone experts will even be able to help clear mines. Some good news that even dumbass Trump finally figured out Putin is full of shit. The so-called 'free world' is not doing enough to stop the Russian invaders. These MAGA pukes really are so clueless.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine eliminates two Russian FSB agents who assassinated Ukrainian SBU Colonel in Kyiv

They were killed in a shootout with Ukrainian authorities.

The assassination was reportedly orchestrated by Putin as a weak revenge for Operation Spiderweb, which destroyed/damaged a third of Russia's strategic bombers in a single day.

The acronyms are a little unusual in this article - the Ukrainians sometimes refer to the Russian FSB as FSS and the Ukrainian SBU as SSU, which can get confusing for international audiences.

The article also mentions another Russian assassination attempt - this one was unsuccessful - on a Ukrainian soldier.  I saw the video of this - the Ukrainian soldier approaches a scooter in a parking lot but changes his mind and begins to walk away.  Then there was an explosion near the bike and he was left shaken but unharmed.  If he had approached any closer or had not walked even that tiny bit away, he could've been a goner.  Apparently, the Russian agent - a 19-year-old - triggered a remote detonation just a bit too late.

[Hydra009]

On telegram, the Russians commented on a Ukrainian picture gallery of the FPV drones' last photo before impact.  "They say Madyar's birds continue to kill our guys on the front lines with cruel hatred." (Madyar is a famously successful Ukrainian drone unit commander who was promoted to lead all of Ukraine's drone forces)

And just so we've got this straight, the Russians invade Ukraine, commit all sorts of crimes ranging from merely stealing toilets to harming civilians all the way up to crimes against humanity, and then when they get hit by a drone suddenly violence is a bad thing??  Classic crybully technique completely wasted on me.

The photos themselves are pretty harrowing, wide-eyed and fearful and just a tad surprised at the end.  Though, I can't say I sympathize with their plight, especially not after 3 years of unrelenting horror.  I used to feel bad for them, but not anymore.  It's like watching a deer wander onto a highway, but I have more sympathy for the deer because it's not smart enough to know better.

Early in this war, I used to watch a lot of war footage to have a better understanding of the conditions on the ground and which way the wind is blowing.  And when there were casualties, they were mostly wounds left pretty ambiguous on whether or not the guy bought the farm.  Well, the Ukrainians have upgraded tremendously from those early Mavic drone drops.  The latest videos are much too gory and disturbing.  The latest one was pretty much a whole Russian unit either on fire or getting torn apart by subsequent explosions.

I can't watch that stuff anymore.  My mental health can't take it.

So I'm just going to pull back and talk about more strategic-level stuff like arms shipments, diplomatic efforts, who took what town, what command post or factory got hit without going into gory detail of what's going on at the tactical level.  I hope you guys understand.

[Cassia]

On telegram, the Russians commented on a Ukrainian picture gallery of the FPV drones' last photo before impact.  They say Madyar's birds continue to kill our guys on the front lines with cruel hatred." (Madyar is a famously successful Ukrainian drone unit commander who was promoted to lead all of Ukraine's drone forces)

And just so we've got this straight, the Russians invade Ukraine, commit all sorts of crimes ranging from merely stealing toilets to harming civilians all the way up to crimes against humanity, and then when they get hit by a drone suddenly violence is a bad thing??  Classic crybully technique completely wasted on me.

The photos themselves are pretty harrowing, wide-eyed and fearful and just a tad surprised at the end.  Though, I can't say I sympathize with their plight, especially not after 3 years of unrelenting horror.  I used to feel bad for them, but not anymore.  It's like watching a deer wander onto a highway, but I have more sympathy for the deer because it's not smart enough to know better.

Early in this war, I used to watch a lot of war footage to have a better understanding of the conditions on the ground and which way the wind is blowing.  And when there were casualties, they were mostly wounds left pretty ambiguous on whether or not the guy bought the farm.  Well, the Ukrainians have upgraded tremendously from those early Mavic drone drops.  The latest videos are much too gory and disturbing.  The latest one was pretty much a whole Russian unit either on fire or getting torn apart by subsequent explosions.

I can't watch that stuff anymore.  My mental health can't take it.

So I'm just going to pull back and talk about more strategic-level stuff like arms shipments, diplomatic efforts, who took what town, what command post or factory got hit without going into gory detail of what's going on at the tactical level.  I hope you guys understand.

The hope is that some of that stuff gets back to the Russians. A dose of reality. They are big on the fancy uniforms, war glorification and military parades. They pay their soldiers better than most can ever make staying home. I saw some brutal stuff too and stopped going to those sites because it will just make one callous. Bad enough we have a "mass shooting du jour" right here in the US.

[Hydra009]

In Soviet Russia, leopard also consumes faces

Texan man who moved family to Russia for "conservative" "values" deceived and sent to the frontlines

In May, Derek, who has no military experience, joined the Russian military, being promised work as a welder, but was sent to the front after just weeks of training.

Lied to and sent to the front.  No one ever could've seen it coming.  More telegraphed than a punch at 1/10000 speed.  Only an idiot would put his face where it lands.

His wife, De Anna, took to social media to plead her case after her husband was duped into front-line combat after just weeks of training in the Russian language, which Derek and his American family do not speak or understand.

*queues joke about immigrants never assimilating*  Hey, they love it in the other direction.

There was also another story about a black American woman who also immigrated there with her young son to escape US racism in 2019 (I understand and sympathize with that urge, but imho that's a fireplace-to-frying pan sort of situation.  She definitely should have tried somewhere more sensible, like Canada or France or Australia.  Granted, there's some level of racism everywhere, but jeez, Russia is an absolutely bonkers pick, though I should add for context that her mother had lived there and she was born there so it wasn't like she threw a dart at a globe, but Russia pre-Putin and under Putin are two quite different animals)

Her and her son actually know the Russian language and they both seem like genuinely nice people who just want to live their lives.  Well, Russia is definitely not the place for that.  Tormented by brutal, sadistic neighbors and the police do nothing.  Very tragic.  I sincerely hope she makes a second escape and this time finds some measure of peace somewhere nice in the world.

[Hydra009]

An American citizen who aided the Russians in eastern Ukraine by spying on Ukrainian forces was extracted to Russia, his new home

Martindale grew up on farms in upstate New York and Indiana, the child of missionaries who later moved to rural China, according to a Wall Street Journal report. A brief trip over the border into Russia's Far East during the family's time in China sparked Martindale's interest in Russia.

What is with people and really bad moves? (in both senses of the word)  Like I can understand moving from Paris to Madrid.  That's something relatively comparable.  But upstate NY to China...that's a serious downgrade.

In 2018, Martindale, now in his early 30s, moved to Vladivostok, a Russian port city on the Pacific, where he studied Russian and taught English, before being deported a year later for violating labour laws, the Journal said.

He moved to southern Poland, but was keen to return to Russia, the Journal said. In 2022, Martindale entered Ukraine just days before President Vladimir Putin ordered thousands of troops into Ukraine.

Poland to Russia??  Did he not talk to a single Pole?!  They're practically Europe's resident expert on Russians (recently dethroned by the Ukrainians).  I'm pretty sure all the fortune cookies there just warn about Russia.

What on earth was he thinking?  Even if everything goes perfectly, he's chilling out with Snowden and Assad somewhere in Moscow or St Petersberg where yes, things are relatively good (by Russian standards) but we're still talking serious inflation and some shortages and that's the best case scenario.  Before long, we're talking about economic crisis and potentially some sort of political unrest, perhaps even violence.  Maybe serious violence.  Maybe another war.  Maybe some big war kicks off.  Just being in the vicinity and hoping it passes you by is a hell of a gamble.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian hackers cripple Russian drone manufacturer

Ukrainian cyber activists, in cooperation with military intelligence, successfully paralyzed the activities of one of the largest Russian drone manufacturers, Gaskar Integration. The attack destroyed over 47 TB of critical data, blocked internal systems, and effectively halted the plant's operations.

Ukrainian cybercriminals have gained access to over 47 TB of technical information about the production of Russian drones. Including data indicating close cooperation between the Russian drone manufacturer and China. All information on the manufacturer's servers has been destroyed, including 10 TB of backup materials.

No surprise about China.  "Neutral" China has given a great deal of support to Putin.

And getting to the backups is the cherry on top.

Among the stolen data are confidential questionnaires of company employees, and most importantly, complete technical documentation on the production of drones, which was transferred to the relevant specialists of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

Oof.  That's gonna come back to bite them.

[Cassia]

Francine Villa, who escaped racism in the US by moving to Russia (WTF?) just got beaten up by her neighbors.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Hyperfocusing is just a way of avoiding having to clearly understand one's motivations. I posted an AI on "confirmation bias" at another forum and nearly got banned for, I think, making them think about what they say.

[Cassia]

he's chilling out with Snowden and Assad somewhere in Moscow or St Petersberg where yes, things are relatively good (by Russian standards)

Oh, let's not forget the carrot-chompin' seagull guy.

[Hydra009]

Oof, not going well for the Russians.  The Ukrainians do often push them back and retake territory, but it seems like the Russians are always advancing somewhere, though it is middling right now, nothing like it was in 2022.

That jug of what I assume was contaminated or maybe poisoned water is a fairly common thing.  Not sure if it was just poor water quality or if it was tampered with somehow.  Atesh does operate in Crimea, so it's not impossible.  There was another one months ago that was allegedly laced with chemicals of some sort (they blamed the Ukrainians) and the Russians filmed it for some reason, showing a couple troops who were so far gone as to be basically unresponsive and several more horribly suffering.  Access to clean water and food remains a serious issue for them.


(Photo of captured Russian soldier from 5 days ago)

A thing about the captured Russians that always fascinates me is that the newly-captured Russian troops are often malnourished and infirm, often standing at least half a foot shorter than the Ukrainian troops who tower over them, usually taller and more muscular.  It definitely speaks to huge disparities how people are cared for in Russia and Ukraine.

And the story of that American who got "tricked" into serving the frontline gets more and more interesting.  And it looks like it's just going from bad to worse.  He volunteered, he hasn't been paid (shocker), and his family is scrambling to provide him money for his own supplies (why must he buy his own supplies?)  I feel bad for the family, but as they say, you wake up in the bed you chose to sleep in.

It's worth noting that Russia does not make the best use of their recruits - they take a guy who would probably be fantastic at vehicle repair and send him to the front as an infantryman, wasting his talent.  He also could be really good at filming propaganda videos, considering that he's a native english speaker and english is the current lingua franca.  Russia previously did the same thing with its own naval crews, who had specialized knowledge and certifications and just sent them to the front where none of that matters.  They just waste people.  They look only to what the State needs and fill those slots with anyone with a pulse and don't look to cultivate talent and then leverage their people's skills to meet their goals, like the Ukrainians do.  That's another reason why they will lose.

[Hydra009]

We finally have some details about the new Patriots for Ukraine

I wondered where exactly they'd be coming from since France and Italy opted out and Germany would like to but currently doesn't have enough to spare.  Well, it turns out that the answer is Switzerland.  The famously almost never invaded country which has been surrounded by allies since the end of WWII.  For some inexplicable reason, they put in a work order to the USA in 2022 for 5 Patriot systems and the US under Biden sidelined them to prioritize Ukraine.  Well, in a stroke of brilliance, Trump is doing the exact same thing, which I guess is news now??

Germany has pledged to pay for two systems.  It's unclear where the other ones are supposed to come from or be financed by.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian hackers wipe databases at Russia's Gazprom in major cyberattack

Gazprom?  More like no prom..blem.  Ehh...close enough.

According to the source, access to Gazprom's internal systems was disabled for nearly 20,000 system administrators, and backup copies of key databases were wiped.

Getting the backups, too.  Funny every time.

The sources said the attackers managed to destroy clusters of "extremely powerful" servers running 1C, a software widely used for managing documents and contracts, analytics data for pipelines, valves, pumps, and SCADA systems — key elements in operating Gazprom's technical infrastructure.

Multiple servers reportedly had operating systems removed or disabled, and the BIOS (basic firmware) of many devices was damaged, making them inoperable without physical repairs.

Ooh, physical damage!  *chef's kiss*

[Hydra009]

Leaked documents claim Russia's 41st Army suffered 'catastrophic' losses fighting in Ukraine

The worst-hit is the 74th Motor Rifle Brigade from Kemerovo Oblast in Siberia, which has lost 2,479 soldiers killed, 2,732 missing, and 2,789 deserting, more than double the brigade's original size of around 3,500 troops.

That's pretty crazy turnover.  I don't think I've even seen casualties like that since WWII, and even then, not many units can say they had only 30% of their unit still breathing after 3 years and >200% leaving combat in some way.  And for what?  A couple of villages, not even a city?  In WWII, whole countries were changing hands for those sorts of losses.  Putin is selling Russian lives at rock bottom prices!