News:

Welcome to our site!

Main Menu

Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Cassia

I guess he sees a divided, weak US and it's now or never...
From Wiki...
Ukraine has acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ukraine inherited "as many as 3,000" nuclear weapons when it became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991, making its nuclear arsenal the third-largest in the world. By 1994, Ukraine had agreed to dispose of all nuclear weapons within its territory, with the condition that its borders were respected, as part of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.

Ukraine is not a NATO member but has agreements and relations with NATO and the plan to eventually be a member has been off and on.

If Russia invades, are the US/EU/NATO obligated to defend?

Mr.Obvious

I´m sorry to say... especially because I Trudy fear the consequences and escalation of open war...
But I feel like the EU would be morally obligated to defend the Ukraine, if need be by war.
I don´t know if we would, but I think we should, if left no other option than letting Putin get away with it.
More likely, I think trade sanctions would be applied.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

PopeyesPappy

Putin doesn't give a shit about trade sanctions because the EU needs Russian fossil fuels worse than Russia needs anything from the EU or the US. If they invade, which seems more likely than not to me, it is either go to war or cede the country to the Russians.  As far as I am concerned this has been inevitable since 2014 when they annexed Crimea, and nobody stopped them then.
Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.


Mr.Obvious

Yeah, I don´t think sanctions would be the appropriate response. But I do think it´s the most likely one.
Didn´t do anything real neither when in belarus loekasjenko performed his coup.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

aitm

IMHO, they rattle the sword and cages…looking to be paid off. We will never know the result should they silently retreat because they won’t. But if they do, they got paid.
A humans desire to live is exceeded only by their willingness to die for another. Even god cannot equal this magnificent sacrifice. No god has the right to judge them.-first tenant of the Panotheust

Dark Lightning

If Russia wants Ukraine, it's going to get it. Get real. What is anyone going to do about it?

Shiranu

#6
Biden has already told Ukraine and Russia that a "small incursion" into Ukraine will go unpunished, so my guess is that within the next few years Kyiv will be Russian occupied and within the decade as far as Lviv will belong to the Russians; this would also link Russia with occupied Moldova (Transnistra) and give them borders with most of their former vassals for future moves (or for influencing these more corrupt Comblock states' governments to be pro-Russia, like we've seen in Montenegro).

I don't believe the United States is going to do anything, and until the Russians are knocking on Germany's border the EU won't give a shit because those Eastern European states are there as a courtesy, not as key members like France/Germany; they are those friends that don't really fit in with the friend group that has known each other for decade, but one of the main people think they are cool so they let them tag along.


Politics aside, you also just can't negotiate with people like Putin, and unfortunately America's actions have given him plenty of ammunition to manipulate the Russian people into believing his propaganda, and as for America any mention of the fact we have provoked this as well get's swept under the rug and we believe the Russians are the big evil.

It's a shame, because the Ukraine is one of the most beautiful countries I've seen in Europe and looks really peaceful (as an American) and culturally historic. But I am also trying to view everything as pessimistically as I can so there is nothing to be disappointed about; I just don't see the United States doing anything which means the EU won't do anything. We will appease Putin until he is certain he has the leg-up on us and then watch him keep on pushing, all the while China laughs as it's two enemies weaken each other.
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon

SGOS

We couldn't stop the Taliban.  Why would we think we could stop the Russians?

Shiranu

I stand corrected; we are doing something, and it's worse than doing nothing.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/19/us-allies-ukraine-weapons-russia-invasion-527375

We are sending $200 million in anti-armor, ammunition, and equipment to the Russian border and have asked Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania to use them for exporting the equipment (I am presuming normally it would come into Germany or France and then be sent by train). This of course puts them at higher risk of pissing off Russia for helping us. The UK is doing the same thing, sending tons of arms and anti-tank equipment to the front. Oh, and we are going to be doing it third-party, because of course we are. Their excuse is literally, "Man, government is just too bureaucratic and it would take to long" and honestly... I have no reason to not believe that isn't the truth, but I still know that is going to mean less over-sight and more corrupt politicians and businessmen finding someway to make a profit off of it.

This equipment is not expected to stop Russia; we are already playing on the backfoot and defensively, trying to catch up. Rather it's being sent there to try and cause as much loss of Russian life as it can so that the people might be scared of us more than they are scared of, or respect, Putin. And if that doesn't work... well, maybe slow them down enough that we can mobilize the American powerhouse like we did in WW2.

Two problems; one is that nuclear weapons are not even required in the modern era, with just the right information you could cripple an entire country's infrastructure. You could even do it in such a way that a nuclear retaliation (if possible) would be necessary, just slow them down enough to finish your invasion before they can get their troops anywhere near, then call for peace before things escalate; they are set back, you win, and the world doesn't die in nuclear annihilation. That is the most... optimistic... possibility if war was to break out.

Secondly I just don't see violence working; I think if anything it will galvanize and piss off the Russian people more, with Putin taking a page out of Trump or Bush's playbooks and appealing as a "common man" and not an aristocrat to surge his popularity. This is his general go-to I've seen for the last... decade or however long it's been since he has been making big moves... to appeal to the military and their nationalist traditions (what a weird concept, never seen that before...).

All three leaders are intentionally provoking a fight, and all it takes is one bad bullet for shit to hit the fan; unfortunately we are lead by a borderline senile chimp and his troop of Congress, a Dollar General-brand Trump buffoon over in the UK with Boris, and the chest beating, but also smarter than expected, gorilla in Russia.

Who do you think wins that fight?
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon

drunkenshoe

#9
To put it bluntly, nothing real will be done until/if they arrive to German border. All those countries are the new EU members as a courtesy. They do not matter. They are cushions.

[In the next 50 to 100 years, after taking Baltic, they will probably target down south. I'm thinking anything down from Georgia, Armenia, Turkey...'lol'. they have been trying to reach warm waters for 200 years. Especially if things get this fucked up beyond control around here, certain actions and moves will get legitimate and legitimate by the year, and it will be easier than thought.

The Russian culture is violent, oppressive and bigotic. Right Wing. Nothing alien to us. We already live in deep under that.]
"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

Shiranu

Funny enough, Germany is taking the exact opposite approach of the U.S. and UK; while we are stream-lining the movement of arms to Ukraine... Germany is blocking their arms from being shipped to the border.


At least one power seems to be looking for a peaceful solution yet.
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon

drunkenshoe

#11
Like Popeyes said, Europe's fossil fuel is coming from Russia.

Today, I have read that Russia has already started to cut the natural gas and the US is in talk (with Katar?), but I have no idea where I've read all that. :/
"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

Hydra009

Quote from: drunkenshoe on January 22, 2022, 10:48:14 AMLike Popeyes said, Europe's fossil fuel is coming from Russia.
Yep.  Yet another reason to go renewable.

drunkenshoe

The US pulled the ambassadors. *Shivers.

I think, I have been mutating. I'm constantly scared about several things, but because there is no place in me for more bad news and more scary stuff, it feels like the feeling of being scared is turning around my head and gets in from my nose in every 3 secs, reached to my stomach and then gets out from my mouth. That was my attempt at defining anxiety.
"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

Shiranu

Biden is now considering sending 1,000-5,000 troops to the Baltics, with a plan to increase that "ten-fold" if Russia does anything.

Meanwhile...






Saigon/Kabul all over again?
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon