Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

US pauses weapons shipments to Ukraine - to the Kremlin's delight

The official reason is that US stocks are low and need to be built back up again, but that strikes me as disingenuous.  The US is not directly threatened, and while the situations with Israel and Taiwan are worrying, Israel appears to be sufficiently armed to say the least and Taiwan's situation has not changed, iirc.  Clearly, the main crisis is the worst outbreak of war in Europe since WWII.  There's no rational reason for not sending arms to where they're desperately needed to defend civilians.

It's no coincidence that top officials in the US government are often trapped within Russia's disinformation bubble, sometimes openly hostile to Ukraine's leadership and then there's a web of payments between these people.  A recent example, Trump bemoaned Russia not being in the G7 right after a phone call with Putin but had little to say about the much more recent devastating Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilians.  This is not new and surprising behavior.  This just another example in a long history of collusion and manipulation.

So once again, the US's "arsenal of democracy" is shut as democracies are attacked.  Allies abandoned, and not just Ukraine, but nearby countries expecting decisive US leadership and wondering if it'll be there if they are the ones attacked.  The weapons are there, but the TACO is soggy and flimsy.  A cowardly retreat from responsibility.  A shame, because a strong hand in ending the Ukraine war with Ukraine as the victor would surely lead to the global acclaim Trump so desperately wants - but he wants to be hailed a hero without actually being heroic, fool's gold.

Fortunately, Europe has been stepping up aid - no doubt sensing American weak support and inconsistent leadership - and Ukraine has made great strides in its own defense, especially cruise missiles and its long-range drones.

But because of US wavering, more civilians will die, more soldiers will die on both sides, and this war will take longer to resolve.  Europe will remember that.  Ukraine will remember that.  And Americans will also remember this betrayal of duty.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Everything old is new again.

[the_antithesis]

And Americans will also remember this betrayal of duty.

No they won't.

[Hydra009]

No they won't.

I will.  And more Americans favor supporting Ukraine than not.  (62% as of May 2025)

[Hydra009]

Ukraine blew up an ammo depot and it's a big one!

https://i.imgur.com/ukxWye9.mp4

https://i.imgur.com/rfpASw2.mp4

https://i.imgur.com/AD8QuVd.mp4

Russian telegram falsely claimed it was a tactical nuke, apparently not understanding that conventional explosions of sufficient size also generate mushroom clouds.

[Hydra009]

8min0sec: "Here, we can see a Russian soldier firing a grenade launcher towards his own comrade and hitting him directly"  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

In other news, a Ukrainian ground drone managed to steal a machine gun from near a Russian position.  They left it on the ground near their trench.  The drone just went up to it and scooped it up with its forklift-like grabbers.  Not sure why the Russians left the machine gun out in the open like that or why they didn't attack the drone or possibly even notice it.  Maybe it came when no one was looking and was too quiet to hear.  Maybe they weren't close by and abandoned the gun for some unknown reason.  Either way, the Ukrainians are happy about their new gun.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine kills high-ranking Russian navy commander in Kursk region

Deputy Commander in Chief of the Russian Navy.  That's a very high-ranking position, afaik.  And Putin had just promoted him.  Previously, he was leading Russia's 155th Separate Marine Brigade, which is notorious for war crimes.  Suffice it to say that this was a bad dude.

Another Vichy mayor installed by Russia killed by improvised explosive device

He opposed Ukraine's Maidan Revolution in 2014 which ousted the pro-Russian puppet government and later headed Luhansk city under Russian occupation.  So it's no wonder he was a target.

[Hydra009]

100% run:  Russia's Black Sea Fleet Remnants under attack at the Russian port of Novorossiysk

We don't know how much damage was inflicted.  There is footage of Russia destroying a naval drone, but that's not a lot to go on.  We'll have to wait to figure out what exactly happened, all we know for now is that there was some sort of combat there.

Mysterious explosions damages gas pipeline and also destroyed a water pipeline in Russia's far east near Vladivostok.  Despite happening purely randomly, it appears to have been specifically the pipeline that provided drinking water to military garrisons in the area, affecting the warcrimes bingo 155th Marine Brigade, among others.  How strange.

Chemical plant near Moscow also hit

[Hydra009]

There's a very interesting recent story and I want to use this one for a little compare and contrast with news media.  Let me know if you notice anything.

American news source (CNN):  Russian minister dies by suicide hours after getting fired by Putin, officials say

Here's a drinking game: take a shot every time you read the words "Kremlin spokesperson said" or "[Russian organization] said" or "Russian media reported" or similar.

Ukrainian source (Kyiv Independent):

The second sentence talks about Ukrainian drone attacks and the tanker explosion - you have to do some serious scrolling to get there on the CNN article.  Bizarrely, the CNN article states that there was "a multi-day disruption to air travel in Russia" without specifying the cause of those disruptions.  It's because of Ukrainian drone attacks!  Instead, it talks about Russian attacks on Ukraine, which is also important to know, but the reality of the situation is that both countries are hitting each other with drones - it's not a one-sided fight anymore.  That article could give a false impression.  Another glaring omission: the CNN article doesn't even mention the tanker explosion!

The Ukrainian article is much shorter and definitely should go into more detail but it gets to the point faster.  And keeps "Russia says" to a minimum.

And here's Telegram, my personal favorite for snappy, up-to-the-minute updates but it's so to-the-point that it's not as detailed as more traditional news sites:

After airport chaos, tanker blast, Putin fires Russian transport minister.

The dismissal comes amid a series of high-profile disruptions to Russia's aviation and shipping sectors.

Russian transport minister fired by Putin reportedly shoots himself dead.

Russia's former Transport Minister Roman Starovoit shot himself dead in Odintsovo following his dismissal by President Vladimir Putin on July 7, the pro-government newspaper Izvestia reported, citing unnamed sources.

Footage shows the scene of Roman Starovoyt's potential suicide. Preliminary reports say the ex-Russian Transport Minister shot himself with an award pistol in a Tesla, per sources.

You're a busy guy, which do you choose?

[Cassia]

There was some good logic back when network news agencies were loss leaders, 'kinda' sworn to report accurately and even report retractions. Of course, no system is perfect but nowadays it's a circus complete with a state-run news network that calls itself entertainment when legally challenged.

[Hydra009]

155th leadership has taken a huge beating lately.  Iirc, the brigade has been reconstituted several times throughout this war, with noticeable dips in quality.  In fact, imho the low quality is precisely the reason they've often resorted to war crimes - it's a way to seem powerful without actually being powerful, especially in a society were brutality is equated with strength.  They're bottom feeders, not warriors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/155th_Guards_Naval_Infantry_Brigade
(reconstituted 8 times by March 2023 - so we're talking pet goldfish level turnover.  In Feb 2023 they were getting smashed at Vuhledar and ISW observed "highly dysfunctional tactics" and theorized that many were poorly trained and freshly mobilized.  But afaik, it wasn't until 2024 and 2025 that they started losing commanders.

[Hydra009]

Putin still hasn't backed down from his maximalist war aims and lately seems keen on capturing Sumy region (recall that at the "peace" summit, when Ukraine rejected Russia's ultimatum to hand over 4 of its regions, the Russian delegation then immediately threatened to also take Sumy region).  If anything, his sense of entitlement and envy of other people's lands has only grown since invading Ukraine.  There was a time where he was with a young boy and the boy correctly stated that Russia's international border ends at the Bering Strait and Putin corrected him, stating that it doesn't end anywhere.  This statement is endlessly repeated by Russian state TV and Russian soldiers to this very day.  Putin says it was just a joke, but that "joke" is not so funny in Ukrainian, to put it mildly.

Also, he has repeatedly tried to rewrite history by claiming that Ukraine is not a real country and that Ukrainians do not have their own separate identity but are instead Russians "unfairly" splintered off from Russia.  This tortured logic helps justify not just the invasion, but the attempted cultural erasure of Ukraine by denying that they have a separate culture in the first place.  Putin also denies Ukraine equal status as an independent and sovereign country (Americans take note, because we were there once as well).  And portraying Ukraine as a wayward Russian province also paints foreign aid to Ukraine as meddlesome intervention in an internal matter, an argument that China is also fond of.

Simply put, Putin is all in on war and no one will ever be able to bring him to the table.  Not Macron, and definitely not Trump.  I hope that Trump finally got that message and it sticks this time.  Aid to Ukraine to enable a Ukrainian military victory is simply the only workable solution to this problem.

[Hydra009]

Russian aircraft carrier to be scrapped after years of fruitless repairs

At least, it's in discussion - whether or not they'll do it remains to be seen.  It is Russia's only aircraft carrier, but it has been out of service since 2017.  After 8 years of dead weight, it would be prudent to let it go - sunk costs in this case may well become a literal term.

To quote wiki:

The Admiral Kuznetsov has been out of service since March 2017. The modernization, overhaul and repair process has been hampered by accidents, embezzlement of funds, and other setbacks.[10] After the floating drydock PD-50 sank in Kola Bay (Murmansk) in an accident that killed one worker in October 2018, the ship was towed to Sevmorput Yard No 35.[11] In another mishap in December 2019, a major fire killed at least one worker and injured ten others.[12] In June 2022, the ship was transferred to a drydock at the 35th Ship Repair Plant in Murmansk,[10] where she remained until February 2023. It was projected that repairs would be completed and the ship would be transferred back to the Russian Navy in 2024, but this was pushed back to at least 2025.[13][14] As of February 2025, she still remains out of service which leaves the Russian Navy without an operational aircraft carrier.[15][16]

It was reported in July 2025, that work on the Admiral Kuznetsov has been suspended, and that the ship may be written-off.[17]

[Cassia]

Russian aircraft carrier to be scrapped after years of fruitless repairs

At least, it's in discussion - whether or not they'll do it remains to be seen.  It is Russia's only aircraft carrier, but it has been out of service since 2017.  After 8 years of dead weight, it would be prudent to let it go - sunk costs in this case may well become a literal term.

China had a basketball player/businessman buy the sister ship (also made in Ukraine), pretending it was gonna be a floating casino. Probably see action if/when they invade Taiwan.

[Hydra009]

China had a basketball player/businessman buy the sister ship (also made in Ukraine), pretending it was gonna be a floating casino. Probably see action if/when they invade Taiwan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Liaoning

Chong Lot proposed to tow Varyag to Macau under pretenses of conversion into a $200 million floating hotel and casino;[19] Western observers were suspicious of the deal since Chong Lot had no listed telephone number, was not located at its listed address, and was run by former officers in the Chinese Navy.

More red flags than a Beijing parade, but the deal went through anyway.  Ukraine made a number of bad deals that year - including giving its nukes to Russia in exchange for a pinkie promise not to invade (broken) and also sold some of its missiles to Russia, which perversely, Russia has now fired on Ukraine.  But in all the chaos of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the seeming sensibility of all parties involved, they're only recognized as bad deals in hindsight.

China also has a 2nd Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier it built itself, though presumably highly modified: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Shandong

Kinda funny that Russia struggles to maintain a single aircraft carrier but China maintains two without issue.  It speaks to the relative power of both countries.