Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Operation Cobweb:  Ukraine strikes Russian airbase, blows up A-60 AWACS and Il-76 transport plane

In Taganrog, according to sources reviewed by Kyiv Post, drones and possibly missiles struck and damaged the Beriev TANTK aircraft plant, a repair facility for long-range Tu-95MS (NATO: "Bear") bombers and Beriev A-50 AEW&C (airborne early warning and command) surveillance planes. The independent Russian news agency Astra reported explosions and large-scale fires on those facilities' premises.

At least one drone or missile struck an A-60 AEW&C air surveillance plane – the Russian version of the US apex sky watch AWACS system on board the E-3 Sentry aircraft – parked at the east end of the runway at Taganrog military airport, detonating fuel stored aboard the aircraft and igniting a billowing fire.

Denys makes a pretty good point about the Russians saying it was a derelict plane that was worthless anyway.  Why was it fully fueled, then?  From my understanding, fuel isn't exactly plentiful in Russia, so why waste it?  The actual reason is that they're trying to soothe their loss by claiming that it wasn't important.

But it was important.  Both the Il-76 and the A-60 were reportedly testing laser weapons.  Theoretically, laser weapons could be a hard counter for drone attacks, though more likely it's an anti-satellite weapon, which could also be quite a threat to Ukrainian intelligence-gathering.  It's little wonder Ukraine wasted no time in striking such a facility.

Also, Ukrainian drones typically cost far, far, less than Russian aircraft, so is it really a waste of a drone in any case?  The Russians use bizarre logic.

[Hydra009]

I've been watching this war pretty intensely for over three years (I'm tired, boss) and I've never seen anything quite like this:

What in the Stormtrooper accuracy A-Team firing spray-n-pray is this??!!  I saw the longer version on telegram and it's even worse than what was shown here - before this video, one AA system fired somewhat leisurely in a large O shape apparently attacking the darkness and I am out of clue as to the purpose of that (if anyone knows, let me know) and immediately after this video ends, the Ukrainian drone managed to hit its target anyway (to the dismay of the Russian filming) and who knows where that errant AA missile went.

So many questions.  WTF were they shooting at?  Why shoot in a bizarre shooting-while-spinning motion?  Is ammo free and plentiful there?  Why stationed so close to civilians?  Do they think friendly fire is turned off or something?

I've seen lots of footage of Ukrainian AA firing and they don't do anything like this.  Generally, they don't fire blindly, they fire in the same direction, and they're stationed away from civilians so there's minimal risk of any sort of friendly fire.  The Ukrainians don't always shoot down their targets either, but they at least make a reasonable and intelligent effort.  The Russians...I don't know if it's bad training or nerves or playing around on the AA, I have no idea what's going on there, but there's a very serious lack of combat readiness that the Ukrainians will no doubt exploit again and again.

Not sure if this is the same errant AA missile, but yeah, there's a reason why you don't fire anywhere towards your own civilians (or civilians in general):

Yep, that's a Russian air defense interceptor flying almost directly into a Russian civilian, who just barely managed to avoid the blast.

A while back, I begged the Russian AA to cease fire so they don't shoot down their own planes.  Now, I'm begging them on behalf of any surviving birds and frightened babushkas.  Cease fire.  It's better to let the targets burn, anyway.  Ukraine will get them sooner or later and the war will be over sooner rather than later.  Don't create unnecessary casualties.

[Hydra009]

For comparison, Ukrainian air defense:

[Cassia]

The AA fire over Baghdad on Day 1 looked better aimed than that. I couldn't sleep most of that night, glued to CNN. Those gunners never saw the stealth bombers, still just shooting away. All those bullets have to come down somewhere.

[Hydra009]

The AA fire over Baghdad on Day 1 looked better aimed than that.

And they were firing antiquated Russian hardware and come to think of probably also trained by the exact same people.

[Hydra009]

[Nobody]

Ukraine may well have done the entire world a big favor by taking out that prototype. Russia would have no hesitation in using it against any other current/future antagonists.

[Hydra009]

Russia's AA ability has steadily declined and now there are significant gaps allowing for Ukraine to hit Russia about as hard as it's hit.

The bad news is that Ukraine's AA has also declined - mainly in interception rate due to new Russian tactics making incoming missiles and shaheds more difficult to shoot down.  And Ukraine's power generation has taken a significant battering, with Russian drones hitting even wind turbines (someone needs to get some "high-IQ" conservative on the phone to tell Putin that wind turbines are useless boondoggles that don't generate power and therefore Russia doesn't need to target them)

[Hydra009]

I let curiosity get the better of me and took a look at some of the frontline footage.  It's brutal on both sides, but it's particularly brutal for the Russians.  At some kind of anti-tank trench, there were a bunch of burnt out motorcycles and the whole area was littered with corpses.  At least two dozen in frame - an almost unreal amount of carnage in such a small area.  Stomach-churning stuff.  Two living Russians were there, a drone arrives, one living Russian not ablaze.  I'll trust you guys to fill in the gaps.

No matter what happens at Pokrovosk, just know that Russia is paying an enormous price for it.  And like Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk and Bakhmut and Vulhedar before it, I wonder what these sorts of losses do to future operations and manpower availability.

Personally, in an attrition war, I'd opt to hang on to as much manpower as possible so that when I need it, I have it.  Putin has taken a decidedly different approach, where he just expects recruitment and training and provisioning to maintain no matter what, which is a hell of an assumption to make.  You can't make pyrrhic victory after pyrrhic victory and then finish with an actual victory.

According to ISW:

Russian forces have advanced an average of 0.12 kilometers per day in Pokrovsk from July 31 to November 26. Russian forces have not seized Pokrovsk — a town of 11.5 square miles — despite operating within the town for over 118 days. ISW has only observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have consolidated advances in 66 percent of Pokrovsk as of November 26, a low percentage given the time and manpower (elements of at least two combined arms armies) Russia has dedicated to pursuing this effort.

Importantly, ISW notes that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable and that a rapid seizure of all of Donetsk region is not imminent.  Russia advances slowly, especially considering the sheer amount of manpower/resources dedicated to it.  And Ukraine resists fiercely, especially when well-equipped (hint hint)

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Makes me miss the Mekong.


Not at all.