Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

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Tremblez, tyrans et vous perfides:  Ukraine buys 100 Rafalel jets and Rafale fighter jets and SAMP/T air defense from France

Last month, Ukraine signed a similar declaration of intent with Sweden for Stockholm to supply 150 Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine.

I don't cover international aid to Ukraine as much as I used to, but these two events are more important than most people realize.

For starters, you don't ink 10-year agreements with a country you expect to crumble.  That's a big show of support in itself.  Secondly, a big concern is that Putin is going to sue for peace and then restart the war and this time, he'll send overwhelming forces instead of the relatively small and ill-equipped forces he sent in February 2022.  Ukraine improving its air force (along with its drones) is a natural counter to such an assault.

Granted, it'll take time for the Ukrainians to fully train on these new planes and integrate them into their air force.  But when they do, Ukraine's air force will be much stronger.  In fact, with Russia's ongoing AA losses, it might be possible for Ukraine to dominate the skies in a few years.  If Putin wants to restart the war, he's going to have to account for Ukraine's growing air power and the horrendous losses within his own air force, which will undoubtedly prove difficult.

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Russia's economy is not doing well at all:

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Russia's Sberbank to fire 20% of its staff as determined by AI (every word of that is *chef's kiss*)

Gref announced the cuts after President Vladimir Putin, who was also attending the conference, asked whether Sberbank planned to invest in satellite development.

Gref replied that the bank's heavy spending on AI, which stands at about $1 billion annually, left little room for other investments.

"It's an extremely expensive toy," he said.

The "expensive toy" in this sentence is a satellite, not AI.  Absolutely wild take, especially considering that Russia is very much in need of spy satellites in this conflict.

Russia sells gold reserves to continue the war

Things are starting to get pretty desperate for Putin.  Scrounging up money like this means that money is scarce and wars aren't cheap, especially his.  What happens when the coffers run dry?  Tick Tock.

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Putin says capitulate (Putin is nervous)

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https://www.ft.com/content/f4112e32-b742-4e91-9c51-aab08067e53e



And bear in mind that these are terms drafted primarily by Russia and simply jotted down by the US with no input from Ukraine or our other European allies (obviously, because they would object)

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European counter-proposal to Russian capitulation deal

The article is very succinct and I thoroughly recommend reading it.  Personally, I think it's generally a very good and balanced approach that supports Ukraine while throwing Russia a couple bones.

Ukraine gets security guarantees but has its military capped at 800k during peacetime and won't get into NATO - for now - because no consensus in NATO currently exists.  That last part is disappointing but not unexpected.  Though I suppose it does leave the door open for a future invitation.  Hopefully that happens before Russia invades for a third time.

"Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine."  That's a huge win for Ukraine!  Another big win for Ukraine is a complete swap of all prisoners - soldiers and civilians, including children - so theoretically, all abducted Ukrainian children would be returned.

But the big downsides are that sovereign Ukrainian territory would de facto be held by Russia and that Ukraine would have to swear off returning it by military means.  That's HUGE downside, but the current reality is that the map isn't budging much one way or the other, so I suppose there's not much of a choice.  So long as Ukraine does not officially recognize it as Russian, like the Russians want, I suppose that's how it'll have to be.

Also, Russia is put back on the G8, which is galling considering they've pursued genocide and war crimes bingo, they're being offered a seat back at the table like it's no biggie.  Crazy!

And sanctions on Russia will be eased in phases and on a case-by-case basis.  Once again, it's crazy to do business with them again considering the stuff they pulled.  They did summary executions of PoWs just a few days ago.  But sure, let's shake hands and break dirt together.  Might as well build some light traktors with Nazi Germany while we're at it!  But let's forget about morality and basic human decency for one second.  What's even the economic importance of Russia, anyway?  Is there anything of importance here besides oil and wheat?  The USA could do without and chug along just fine and lots of countries have done exactly that.  Personally, I'd rather keep sanctions up until Putin croaks and someone more sensible takes power at the very least.  That guy should be in the Hague or dead for what he's done and you're not only going to let him walk, you're gonna ink trade deals with the guy?  Like I said, crazy!

Russia will legislatively enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine

hahahaha. Oh, wait. You're serious. Let me laugh even harder. HAHAHAHAHAHA.

Mark my words:  violated on day 1.  Violated before the ink is even dry.

Europe needs to buckle up because there's not going to be a quick and easy solution and a return to peace.  That's a delusional fantasy.

You better protect TF out of your eastern flank or Russia can and will launch hybrid attacks, including but not limited to: airspace violations, drone aggression, jamming, arson attacks, railway sabotage, attempted murder of head of state, election interference, attempted/actual AA strikes on civilian airliners, deep-sea cable aggression, etc.  Possibly even little green men (unidentifiable Russian forces).  Putin is on a warpath and a little ink will not change his mind.

That said, the agreement is mostly good.  Not ideal, but generally decent.  Loads better than the capitulation plan.

[Cassia]

A lot better than Trump's idiotic deal. Dictators are so stupid. China got to where it is by interacting and trading with democracies. Now they are planning to go down the Putin-trail-to-ruin over Taiwan.

[Nobody]

Apparently, they haven't yet learned that trying to appease tyrants never works.

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I joke about the Russian soldiers being drunks, and that's a bit of a simplistic exaggeration, but sometimes there's a little truth in television.

https://i.imgur.com/jFK5nBQ.mp4 (footage from near the warzone, no violence but seriously NSFW language)

No surprise that Russia's not doing so hot on the battlefield.

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Ukrainian forces counterattack in Pokrovsk, clearing the Russians from much of the city center

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Ukraine jams Russian Kinzhal missiles with a...song??  This can't be right.

Kinzhals and other guided munitions rely on the GLONASS system – Russia's GPS-style navigation network using satellites – to find their targets.

Night Watch developed its own "Lima" jamming system that replaces the missiles' satellite navigation signals with the Ukrainian song "Our Father is Bandera".

When the song begins, the Lima system feeds the incoming missiles a false navigation signal, tricking them into believing that they are flying over Lima, in Peru, so that they attempt to change their trajectory.

Travelling at a speed of more than 4,000 miles per hour, however, the missiles become destabilised by the abrupt and unexpected change of course.

The abrupt course-correction essentially makes the missile destroy itself in air, sparing whatever target it otherwise might've hit and costing Putin about $10 million for a radio hit instead of an actual hit and costing Ukraine...whatever the Ukrainian EW system costs and a six-pack of beer.  How embarrassing for Putin.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

US GIs used to get two cans of beer when it was available in a war zone. Sailors, being the sober souls that we are, declined this Lilliputian offering. We stood strong against temptation, especially until the "torpedo juice" of legend was close enough to being drinkable to consume.