Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I guess vodka doesn't tend to enhance common sense.

Hey! I'm not so think as you drunk I am!

[Hydra009]

Sooo...not great news lately.  The Russians have made gains, especially in the southern direction.  But watch the strategic picture and keep your emotions in check.  Remember that just over three years ago, the Russians controlled Kherson, the Moskva was intact, the Russians controlled Snake Island, the Russians controlled Lyman, Russia's strategic bombers were (mostly) intact, the Russians had massive amounts of armored vehicles at the front and not horses and donkeys, and Russian refineries were not on fire.  All things may change.

[Hydra009]

[Cassia]

Gorinich is coming alright.

[Nobody]

The gorinich who stole Christmas? 😇

[Cassia]

The gorinich who stole Christmas? 😇

It's important to realize most of these guys signed up to get paid or to get out of jail to go invade their neighbors.

As of late 2025, Russian officials reported that hundreds of thousands of Russians had signed military contracts in that year alone. Specific numbers have included around 407,200 people signing contracts in 2024 and about 336,000 in 2025.Various sources estimate that Russia has recruited a total of between 120,000 and 180,000 criminal prisoners to fight in Ukraine

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Taneko oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk on fire.  No other details at this time, so we don't yet know if this was Ukraine, Comrade Incompetence, or partisan activity.  Odds are good that it was Ukraine, though, since Ukraine did hit it with a drone back in January and they tend to come back for seconds.

[Cassia]

Taneko oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk on fire.  No other details at this time, so we don't yet know if this was Ukraine, Comrade Incompetence, or partisan activity.  Odds are good that it was Ukraine, though, since Ukraine did hit it with a drone back in January and they tend to come back for seconds.

The oil guys won't complain too much, Putin likes to see if unhappy oligarchs can fly from windows, lest they get any ideas. Xi Jinping is always knocking his oligarchs down as well.

[Hydra009]

The oil guys won't complain too much, Putin likes to see if unhappy oligarchs can fly from windows, lest they get any ideas. Xi Jinping is always knocking his oligarchs down as well.

I haven't covered this much, but there have been some suspicious deaths recently.  Wikipedia is helpful since the Russian news cycle is full of very, very similar events to the point that only written records can be relied upon.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

North Korea starts to run out of shells for Putin

Shockingly, the destitute pariah country (though less so with open support from Russia and Iran in addition to ongoing aid from China) doesn't have a very strong industrial base.  Though it has shipped a whopping 6.5 million artillery shells for Russia since 2023, which has prolonged this war and increased its casualties.

The deputy head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence said that no deliveries were recorded in September, and only some shipments appeared in October. However, around half of the ammunition sent last month was so old that it needed to be sent to Russian factories for refurbishment.

Skibitskyi added that North Korea has begun mass production of FPV drones and larger, medium-range combat UAVs, though he did not specify the scale.

"They are learning, they are studying their experience (in this war) in order to expand production in their own territory," he said.

And like North Korean shells, these drones will likely be used for future aggression.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine destroys 4 s-400 launchers and two nearby radars

It's a good day when they hit the radar or the launcher.  Bagging the whole kit and caboodle is fantastic.

[Hydra009]

Russia put a video of their mobile AA team (small arms + technical) shooting down a Ukrainian drone.  And then later in the video, they shoot down another drone going in the same direction and veering exactly the same as the other drone.  And another.  And pause.  Identical footage.  :/  Still, they probably (maybe) bagged one drone, which is unfortunate.

And Russia put out another video against VPNs, which is hilarious:

"Putin's Brigades" is just Putin's personal fanclub, not patriotic (like Free Russia Legion) or nationalistic (mostly disgruntled or in jail, like Igor Girkin) at all.  For some reason, they mostly go for very, very, very old folks.  The kinds of people who slept through Swan Lake.  I guess everyone needs a hobby.

[Hydra009]

Turkish LNG tanker hit by Russian drone off the port of Izmail on the very southern tip of Ukraine

Presumably, this was a deliberate act by Russia to try to intimidate countries doing sea trade with Ukraine.