Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Covering the frontline is an emotional rollercoaster because day after day, it seems like the Russians are steadily advancing and all hope is lost, and then the next day, they get smashed and it doesn't seem like they made nearly as much advancement as it seemed.  As always, Ukraine is making them pay dearly for every inch.

[Hydra009]

Russia once again loses AA in Crimea, this time it's a s-400's radar, which are quite expensive - as well as the vehicle supplying the power to AA system and two additional radars.  IIRC, hundreds of millions of US dollars worth of damages.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Not directly related to the war, but a Russian helicopter crashed, killing 5 people (the video is incorrect in the death count, one person later died in the hospital)

Pretty much the entirety of the crash is on film, though the cameraman veers away distractingly often.  First, there's the bizarre tail-down landing, which snaps the tail off.  The pilot then attempts to put down in the surf, but for reasons that will always mystify me, decides against that and gains altitude with the tail bobbing in the wind like it ain't no thing.  Later on, as he gains lots of altitude, the pilot completely loses control and the helicopter plummets down, and well, the wikipedia page has the end result.

Could this have been avoided?  Definitely.  Could this have been avoided more than once?  Yes.  Was this avoided?  No.

In addition to some truly bizarre piloting choices like that tail-down landing and passing up on the much, much more survivable surf landing, investigators are looking into some sort of technical failure.  As you know, Russian aviation is under sanctions and so spare parts are tricky to come by.  As such, technical problems have been cropping up in Russian aviation all over the place - from the military side to the civilian side.

[Cassia]

Because of the coaxial main rotor (and no tail rotor), I would guess the pilot assumed he could land somewhere safe without the tail.

[Hydra009]

I suppose so, but it's like hitting a tree and then heading for the freeway.  Typically, you want to pull over ASAP.  So setting down should've been the #1 priority.  Gaining altitude after taking serious damage is a risky thing on a good day, and well, this wasn't a good day.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Every time I see "Ukraine" I recall "Holodomor".

[Cassia]

I suppose so, but it's like hitting a tree and then heading for the freeway.  Typically, you want to pull over ASAP.  So setting down should've been the #1 priority.  Gaining altitude after taking serious damage is a risky thing on a good day, and well, this wasn't a good day.

Yeah, common sense seems to evade most Russians for some reason. Russian lost some commonsense individuals when they immediately fled the country after Putler invaded.

[Nobody]

I guess vodka doesn't tend to enhance common sense.

[Hydra009]

[Cassia]

WAR, WAR everywhere. We really are apes. We love war. We legendize it.

Cambodia/Thailand about to tangle again.
Terror Bomb attack in India. India already blaming Pakistan.
US staging carrier groups down near Venezuela.
China with eyes and attack plans for Taiwan.
Israel and Iran about to bomb each other again.

Europe growing more and more uneasy about a desperate Putin. They wonder; what would happen if he hurled tactical nukes at Ukraine? "I hope the Russians love their children too." I doubt Putin does.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine strikes Tuapse oil terminal

This target was also attacked 10 days ago and about 44 days ago.  It's one of two main oil terminals for Russia on the Black Sea.

Ukrainian robot boats had previously attacked Tuapse on Sept. 24 and overnight on Nov. 1-2. The latter raid damaged two tankers, halted fuel exports and refinery operations for days, caused an oil spill and forced tankers to abandon the port.

Russia says this attack didn't damage major infrastructure or hurt anyone:

Local social media contradicted the official Russian narrative of an ineffective Ukrainian attack destroyed by local defenses, and reported a single tanker had been tied up at an oil-loading pier at the time of the kamikaze boat raid and the blasts reported in the port.

[Cassia]

Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). I like that.

[Hydra009]

The turtle tank kludge solution appears to cause significant problems for Russian vehicles, which obviously weren't designed for that extra load.  And if you mount the armor on the turret instead of the hull, it can cause the turret to become unable to rotate.

There was a turtle tank vs bradley footage from a while back and the bradley was dangerously close to the tank - you'd expect to simply rotate its main gun and fire at the bradley.  But it never fired back, didn't even rotate its turret.  That might be because of an inability to rotate the turret and/or its optics were knocked out.

[Hydra009]

I saw that footage of the dilapidated, rusty Russian vehicles entering Pokrovsk under the cover of fog.  The mad max vehicles look like they're in better shape and crewed by more level-headed people.  Honestly, it looks like they're on their way to Burning Man or something.  Well, that convoy later on got smashed by Ukrainian drones.  Good riddance.  As Ukraine Matters points out, the Russian military of 2022 and the Russian military now are worlds apart.  While the Russians in 2025 have a vastly improved knowledge of drones, the Russians in 2022 had a pretty intimidating vehicle convoy (a leftover from the Soviets, who built it with the intent of being able to fight World War 3 - being spent almost entirely on taking various villages in eastern Ukraine.  If the dead could spin...)