Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Each country fights based on its skill and its goals.  :(

Due to the August 28th strike, Russia's Kuibyshevsk refinery has suspended operations.  Its main units, which could produce up to 70,000 barrels per day, are damaged to the point of unusability.  Its secondary units are also damaged.  Presumably, they're also indefinitely offline.

This facility came back online on August 21st after the facility was upgraded.  Economically, this is the equivalent of dropping a bowling ball through the engine block of a car that had just come back from the mechanics after extensive repair work the night before it would be used in a long road trip.  Severe economic damage that could not have come at a worse time - deliberately planned to be as unfortunate and punishing as possible.

Ukraine also hit an oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai (just east of Crimea).  The extent of the damage is currently unknown, but videos of the hit show a large fire at the site.  So something is definitely burning.

[Hydra009]

Work smarter not harder:  Ukraine blew up two Russian bridges with Russia's help

Russian forces had the bright idea to stash anti-tank mines and ammo on the bridges, presumably so they could blow them up if Ukrainian troops advanced.

Ukraine made that wish come true by simply flying drones into those mine/ammo caches, blowing up the bridges cheaply and easily, and the cherry on top was blowing up Russian ammo that Russia could have potentially used against Ukraine.

The whole operation cost Ukraine less than $1000 usd.

🎵 Pick up the phone, I'm here alone
Or make a social call
Come right in, forget about him
We'll have ourselves a ball, hey 🎵

[Cassia]

I ventured onto the twitter cesspool today. I came across a posted video of a Russian soldier who got hit by a drone. Another drone was watching from a distance shooting the video, I suppose. This soldier turned into a huge mushrooming fireball that was the equal of a large bomb. He was instantly vaporized, just gone. I wonder if the logistics are so bad for Putin's Russia now that they are using their soldiers as mules to carry anti-tank mines or fuel or ammo.

[Hydra009]

The Russians have been using lone soldiers to carry ammo for months now, maybe a year.  It happened when they started having vehicle shortages.  Also, the vehicles transporting ammo would get blown up, so they started leaving the ammo about halfway from the front - too afraid of drones to continue - forcing the frontline troops to send someone to collect and haul the ammo to the trench.  Eventually, that became standard practice.

The Ukrainians are also under the same threat, but their logistics chains are shorter and easier.  They tend to use vehicles at night since Russia doesn't often have much night vision.  I've also seen some ground drones hauling ammo, but I don't know how commonplace this is.  It might just be something they do when the enemy is too close to risk a person.

They definitely have very different perspectives on the value of human life.

[Hydra009]

As for combat footage, that one you described where the guy is vaporized is more fortunate than most.  Over there, it's grisly beyond belief - most people have no idea.  One that stuck out to me is two Russians riding the same motorcycle and the one in front just gets instantly turned into shredded beef, much to the shock and dismay of his passenger, who crashed into some bushes and made a break for it.  I had to stop watching just for my own sake.  I like to know the conditions on the ground - tactics and a rough idea of who's succeeding in their mission and who's failing - but I can gather enough data from censored youtube videos and brief updates.

The Ukrainians have steadily evolved much more devastating and unpredictable tactics and any smart person would've read the writing on the wall and sued for peace long ago.  But it appears that Putin is obsessed with capturing more and more Ukrainian land and (often exaggerated or outright false but often true) reports about the capture of this or that village keeps him going and keeps the war going.  If Russia were decisively defeated, even he would back down.  But it's such a long frontline and the Ukrainians are often outnumbered, so it's impossible to fully secure all sectors, hence piecemeal Russian advances.

It's truly awful and when I read about Ukrainians killed in this war, I am sick to my stomach.  Because often, it's just civilians living their lives and some coward guns for them - more like a school shooter than a warrior.  If I could snap my fingers and simply remove all Russians from occupied lands, I would.  Alas, it's not so easy.  The Ukrainians are forced to do it the hard way, which is very costly and slow.

[the_antithesis]

IDK WDYT?

[Hydra009]

IDK WDYT?

Anna from Ukraine seems to think that the Russian Federation will collapse and a number of ethnic nation-states will emerge, like Chechnya, Buryatia, etc.  Presumably, these nation-states would have more local issues in mind and would no longer harbor expansionist ambitions, though the possibility exists for one or more powerful regions (like those centered on Moscow or St Petersberg) to attempt to control the others with threats of force or attempt to conquer them outright.  So that scenario may or may not be peaceful.

Personally, I think a more likely scenario is that Putin dies and a less expansionist, perhaps also weaker, dictator emerges and Russia licks its wounds.  Though the possibility of war still exists, Russia's willingness to engage in overt aggression wanes and Russia instead tries to deepen its ties with China, North Korea, Iran, and potentially also India to bolster its economy and dig itself out of the economic problems it has caused for itself, perhaps even successfully convincing the US and Europe to lift or at least lessen sanctions.  No idea how they plan on tackling the demographic crisis, though if you know a good solution to that, be sure to share the secret with South Korea and Japan.

Europe is taking seriously the possibility that Russia again engages in a military conflict in eastern Europe within the next 10 years.  If Russia continues its war economy and war production (stockpiling drones and missiles) even after some sort of ceasefire with Ukraine, that's a pretty big tell as to what Russia's true intentions are in the near future.

[Hydra009]

Russia's summer offensive is winding down.  So, what was accomplished?  Russia took roughly 0.25% of Ukraine.  A fourth of one percent of Ukraine.  No cities and I guess a few villages, but mostly empty acres of bombed out nothing.  Even Chasiv Yar, which is right next to Bakhmut, which the Russians took over 2 years ago, is at least somewhat still controlled by Ukraine.  Chasiv Yar is only 10km west of Bakhmut.

And in the process, Russia took heavy casualties (afaik, it's slightly less than last year, but still very high) and lost extremely important equipment.  If you watch war footage from 2022 and 2025, it's like night and day - in 2022, Ukraine is using Javelins against massive Russian armored assaults.  In 2025, Ukraine is using drones against small squads of infantry who were just dumped in the area.  Things are still difficult for Ukraine, but it's no longer a David VS Goliath matchup.  It's more like Squirrel Girl VS Doctor Doom.  Or one of those Buffy the Vampire Slayer vampires who talks a big game in his lair and then gets killed by Cordelia at the end of the episode.

Losing any territory at all is painful for Ukrainians, especially those who have had to flee their homes.  But on a strategic level, it's nothing.  And the cost for Russia was significant.  If the war continues like this, Russia will undoubtedly lose.  And with Ukraine coming up with new and inventive weapons, the war will progress in a way that is even less advantageous for Russia.

[Hydra009]

Occasionally, I do get the morbid curiosity to check out war footage and today does not disappoint.

Apparently, a Ukrainian soldier took off his badge and somehow managed to join a Russian infiltration group as one of their own.  Bear in mind that Ukrainians are usually fluent in Russian, but Russians are rarely fluent in Ukrainian.

Well, they're walking down the road as comrades and the Ukrainian abruptly turns his rifle on the two completely unsuspecting Russians.  Problem solved real quick.

It beggars belief, but this sort of thing is documented.  It happens on occasion, but this has never been captured on video before to the best of my knowledge.

And look, if you're some sort of second army - badass and unstoppable - and Star Wars tactics work against you and stop you dead in your tracks, maybe you need to either get better training or stick to your own country, because a blizkrieg life ain't for you.

[Hydra009]

The PG-ified footage is accurate.

[Hydra009]

The warning about rear attacks is too right.  It already got some rears...

There's a reason why drones often aren't brought down by small arms fire.  Not many people have a 3 frames reaction time.  Best thing you can do in that situation is hit the deck and roll and hope for the best.  Instead, Russians are taught to throw their stuff at incoming drones - and for the antipersonnel ones, that just turns it into a bouncing betty instead.  Probably makes it even more lethal because now everyone in the immediate area has a ticket to the show, not just the one it's going after.

[Hydra009]

"all the money" Fantastic sourcing /sarcasm
If it was sourced, it'd probably be a .ru address, so I understand why that part was left out.

But let's take the argument seriously.  Even if you break it down on a completely selfish pov, giving aid still makes sense.  You do not want Russians at your border.  You especially don't want Russians at your border with conscripted Ukrainians and lots of drone know-how.  Whatever aid you're giving the Ukrainians is worth it for them to fight instead of you.

[Nobody]

Apparently, we'll need another war thread, this time about the US war against Venezuela.

[Hydra009]

Poland shoots down Russian shahed drones violating its airspace

About time.  Russia has been violating NATO airspace for a long time now.  Like the article says, a Russian drone hit Poland in 2022 and killed two people.  At the time, nothing was done about it.  And Russian drones have also crashed in Romania.  After that, Lithuania.

Showing weakness to Russia invites aggression.  It also freaks out allies who rely on Article 5 collective defense.  If you won't even protect your own territory, how are allies supposed to believe you'll protect them?

You can't fight Russian aggression with kid gloves or strongly-worded memos.  You must shoot down the incoming drones.  That part is obvious.  Additionally, it would be a fantastic idea if NATO were to enforce a no-fly zone - the kind of thing that Ukraine proposed from the very beginning of this war.  Russia would not like it and call it aggression - but they're the ones sending drones to Europe, not the other way around.

Turkey famously protected its airspace by shooting down a crewed Russian plane that briefly violated its airspace.  Russia obviously wasn't happy about it, but it took the lesson to heart.  Other NATO countries must show similar resolve to head off future aggression.

[drunkenshoe]

And my heart jumped to my throat. Apperantly, it's a 'mistake'.