Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[ferdmonger]

I think 'toady' works better than accomplice.  Trump is an idiot protected by wealth that is destroying this country... slow but sure. Hell, people I know are more concerned about the the 12 trans kids in the country playing 'other' ball than they are about health care or anything else that actually affects their lives.

[Hydra009]

Meh.  Either way, I can see the warts.

Meanwhile, on the frontlines:

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

The only reason Russia is seeking any sort of agreed settlement is its inability to fully capture these regions by force.

[Hydra009]

Russian general seriously wounded near Ukrainian border

His convoy came under attack.  He lost an arm and a leg.

The Ukrainians have been doing a fantastic job of hitting Russian military convoys headed to Ukraine even before they get into Ukraine, mostly in Kursk region.  Putin wanted a buffer zone and got one.  Russian troops want to die for Russia and they get that, too.  Everyone gets what they want.  He's lucky he made it out of there alive.  I've seen a lot of fire and ashes in the aftermath of those strikes.

[Hydra009]

"All aboard, hahahahahaha!!!

Crazy, but that's how it goes
Millions of people living as foes"

Jeez!  What a fantastic disaster!  That burning fuel train really does encapsulate the Russian experience in Ukraine.  Failure and ruin.  Russia is slowly but surely bleeding itself dry here.

Also, and this is from Russian telegram, so take it with a grain of salt, but a Russian soldier complains that their convoy's route got hit routinely - "the entire highway is strew with burned equipment and corpses" - but after a Russian general was badly wounded, suddenly Moscow finds an alternative route.  He asserts that Moscow didn't care when it was low-rank troops dying, but when it's a member of the brass getting hurt, suddenly they work to solve the problem.

[Cassia]

Woody Allen Joins Moscow Film Week, Where Putin-Backed Directors Take the Stage

Can't wait for the next Woody Allen/Steven Sea-gull flick.

[Hydra009]

Trump suggests Ukraine 'play offensive'

US defense officials have blocked Ukraine from using US-supplied long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia since late spring

Two US officials told the outlet that on at least one occasion, Ukraine had sought to use Atacms against a target but was denied

Watch the feet.  Nothing Trump says means anything.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian kinetic sanctions knock out 17% of Russia's oil refining capacity, harming Russia's war economy and triggering petrol/gasoline shortages in some parts of Russia

And like a good neighbor, Belarus sits on its hands.  Granted, they don't have the capacity to do much, but damn, that's cold.

Russia's top drone maker nears collapse

One of Russia's largest drone manufacturers, AO Kronstadt, is on the verge of bankruptcy after months of financial turmoil and mounting lawsuits, Russian media reported.

Industry sources told CNews that Kronstadt has been in difficulty for two years, with the problems traced to the 2022 exit of its key shareholder, AFK Sistema. Without that support, debt levels escalated rapidly.

Sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union have further strained the company, cutting access to critical foreign-made components and inflating costs. At the same time, large state contracts placed heavy production demands on Kronstadt at a moment when supply chains were already under stress.

[Hydra009]

Russia's occupation progress from Aug 2022 to Aug 2025:
Luhansk: 99.9% to 99.6% (-0.3%)
Donetsk: 59.5% to 76.5% (+17%)
Zaporizhzhia: 71.8% to 73% (+1.2%)
Kherson: 92.1% to 71.8% (-20.3%)

This doesn't exactly paint a picture of unstoppable Russian advances.  Plenty of them were stopped, even reversed.  They might have even lost territory in this timeframe.  I know for a fact that if the advance from Sumy towards Kyiv is included, it definitely puts Russian territorial gains in the negative, since lots of northern ukraine was temporarily occupied in 2022 only to be rapidly lost by Russia after their thrust towards Kyiv fell apart.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine blew up another Russian train a few days ago.  I have to closely check and recheck articles because they're so similar that I'm rarely sure if it's a new event or a repost or if I'm developing some sort of persistent deja vu.

It's legit.  So, allow me to be your Luis and recap this thing like I'm in an Ant Man movie:



The above is the "Northern" rail line (relative to the Sea of Azov)



The above is the Southern rail line

A week ago, on August 19th, Ukraine destroyed a Russian train carrying fuel on the Northern rail line.  It was all pow POW BOOOM!  Epic stuff.  Anyway, it's a single track so that rail line is completely blocked until the Russians clear their wrecked train.  They still haven't finished doing that yet (as of yesterday) because sections of the railway itself are damaged from the fire and need to be replaced before they can use it again.

So naturally, the Russians decided to use the Southern rail line instead.  This was on August 21st, just two days later.  That fuel train was also blown up - pow POW BOOOM! - at the critical Dzhankoi junction in Crimea.

So both railroad lines are camped.  North line is camped.  South line is camped.  And the Russian forces they're supposed to supply are not getting supplied.  *mimes a Russian vehicle slowly running out of fuel and Russian troops getting increasingly frustrated*

And to make matters worse for the Russians, today on August 26th, the Ukrainians blew up a substation - also near Dzhankoi.  BOOM!  So that whole area is just completely camped, hurting Russian logistics a LOT.

Crazy, but that's how it goes.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine sanctions Moscow pipeline!

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Komi Can't Commute: Partisans torch a locomotive to prevent its use in the war

This happened at the Syktyvkar depot in the Komi region of Russia.

[Hydra009]

Some not good news lately, unfortunately.

Russian missile attack on Kyiv kills at least 23

As usual, civilians were targeted.  It also hit EU and British mission council offices, a Turkish enterprise and the Azerbaijan embassy.  All governments Russia has been antagonistic towards.  What a coincidence.

Ukrainian woman stabbed to death in North Carolina

My home state :(  And in an area I would normally consider to be reasonably safe.  Also, the murderer was a career criminal and well-known by the authorities, so it's not like it was a surprise to them.

Polish President vetoes extension of benefits for Ukrainians

[Hydra009]

Russia hits Ukrainian ship operating near the Danube river, killing one sailor and several missing

I know that memes say that Ukraine has no navy, but that is not completely true - Ukraine does have a few ships operating along the Dniper and Danube.  Russia attacking this way shows that it is eventually learning the lessons of this war and adopting the tactics that have worked so well for the Ukrainians.

Meanwhile, Ukraine hits a Russian missile cruiser in the Black Sea

An aerial drone attack hit the ship's radar, then a sea drone hit the side of the ship, forcing it to leave the area