Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Poland invokes Article 4

This is not the military response of Article 5, this is consultations with other NATO members on how to jointly proceed.

Essentially, this is the yellow card before the red card.  A warning of something much more serious.

[Hydra009]

And my heart jumped to my throat. Apperantly, it's a 'mistake'.

Russia says it wasn't deliberate.  Poland recorded 19 drone incursions overnight.  Did the drones launch themselves? Even Russians can read a map - that's where they draw their new borders.  Either Putin ordered aggression on Poland or Russian forces do it without orders.  Either scenario merits the same response.

Russia is reckless and threatens its neighbors.  That much has been obvious for years.  What isn't obvious is what will be done about it.

[Hydra009]

Gaslighting 101:  Now Putin says that they weren't Russian drones

Before, they acknowledged that they did it, but it allegedly wasn't intentional.  Now, they deny it altogether.  Can't even keep the story straight.  Or cynically expect the West to be as tapioca-brained as Russians citizens.

"The Polish side once again failed to present evidence of the Russian origin of the objects that entered Polish airspace (and there is no reason to expect that it will), and completely groundlessly accused Russia of provocative actions," the Russian embassy told Newsweek in a statement.

Yeah!  It could be anybody who launches hundreds of drones in the air on a westward trajectory towards Poland.  Looong list of suspects, I bet.

[Nobody]

It was probably aliens.

[drunkenshoe]

*Sigh. Let's wait.

By the way, again thank you so much for all the reports Hydra. <3

[Hydra009]

We'll give it two weeks.  :P

Thank you for the thanks, but actually I'm woefully behind.  Lots of stuff happens every day, can't possibly cover it all.  I try my best to catch the big stuff, though.

[Hydra009]

The Russian drones violating Polish airspace were fitted with extra fuel and were likely headed for Rzeszow Airport, which is an important logistics hub for aid to Ukraine

"Based on the available information, we believe the drones most likely entered NATO airspace deliberately," a senior NATO official told Welt.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius echoed this statement, saying that the Russian drones were deliberately directed along this route, Spiegel reported.

The Rzeszow-Jasionka airport is located less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the Ukrainian border and transports a significant percentage of Western materiel bound for the front lines in Ukraine. It is also a main stopover point for foreign leadership traveling to Kyiv on official visits.

In response, Poland is closing some air traffic along its eastern border until December 9th and temporarily closing its border with Belarus (it was open??!) due to the joint military exercises between Belarus and Russian there.  Latvia is similarly closing the airspace on its eastern border for a week.  And Lithuania was ahead of the curve and closed their eastern airspace a month ago and that'll remain in effect until October 1st.

I should specify here that most commercial air traffic can still move unhindered - the restrictions are at elevation below normal cruising altitudes of most commercial aircraft.  So really, I don't see why this wasn't and isn't a permanent thing because it's a literal warzone right next to the border.  Ukraine doesn't have any planes flying to Poland and Russia and Belarus are no longer allowed to fly to Poland, so really, I don't see why Poland would want anything at all flying in from the east.  *shrugs*  Maybe Denys will help clear that up because I am out of clue about that.

These countries are also looking to bolster air defense (no brainer right there) as well as deploying additional troops.  Some polish troops will receive anti-drone training from the Ukrainians, who know more than anyone in the world how to shoot down Russian drones.  That's why it's important to aid Ukrainians - you aid them, they aid you in return.

Very surprisingly for me, Zelenskyy proposed that the best response to this aerial attack on Poland is for the EU to strengthen sanctions on Russia's banking sector.  I would have thought he'd prioritize a strong military response or the no-fly zone that Ukraine has been asking for since 2022, but no.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Intensify forward firepower: Ukraine strikes $60 million Russian support ship directly into the ship's bridge

The strike reportedly injured the captain and destroyed navigation/communications systems, forcing it to return to port for repairs.  It likely won't be back in action for a long time.

The vessel was patrolling the waters around Novorossiysk Bay, where the rest of the Black Sea Fleet Remnants are located.  It was likely on lookout for drones.  Well, it found one.

Other ships run a high risk of the same thing happening to them, since everyone knows exactly where they are and there's nowhere to be except that bay or leaving the Black Sea for the Mediterranean, which would a one-way trip since Turkey won't let any warships back in.  The ships either stand their ground and get hit one by one or leave the war entirely.  Either option is good for Ukraine.

[Hydra009]

As for war footage, there's a crazy clip of a Russian convoy coming to a dead stop because the lead vehicle was hit by a Ukrainian drone.  The crazy part is that the soldiers just mill about like construction workers waiting for the cement to dry.  One guy is casually watching the whole thing on top of his vehicle like he's at a concert or something.

In a warzone, especially a very active part of that warzone where you know for a fact that the enemy has eyes on you, it's a HUGE tactical mistake to cluster together out in the open.  Sitting ducks.  Whole squads have been killed that way.  The smart move is to retreat.  But if you have to stay in the area, you're supposed to disperse to cover/concealment and keep an eye out.  Even civilians like me know that much.  Who trained these people?  Because they're practically begging to be sent back from the war as casualties.

[Nobody]

I guess Putin can't afford to train his canon fodder.

[Hydra009]

[drunkenshoe]

There was a news piece about Denmark very recently making the biggest military weapons purchase *in history* from several European countries.

The news was out in the last few days, so it can't be after the Poland incident. So, probably there must be a lot of purchases going behind the curtains, I suppose.

Sounds pretty bleak to me being at the this side of the world...

 

[Hydra009]

Yep.  Sorry, I miss a lot of aid pledges.

Denmark recently announced a €375 million aid program focused on the southern Ukrainian city Mykolaiv, which was once right at the frontline after Kherson was taken but has since become much more secure after the Russians were driven out of Kherson.

Denmark and Ukraine will also jointly produce drones.  And before that, Denmark allowed Ukraine to shift some of its defense production to Danish soil, a move that Russia is sharply opposed to, even though it launches plenty of strikes on Ukraine from Belarus.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine strikes Russia's largest oil terminal, sets docked Shadow fleet vessel ablaze as well