Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Nobody]

Maybe it wasn't sugar? I don't know what powder would do the trick, though, having never been a sabateur. Flour? Baking soda?

[Cassia]

Maybe it wasn't sugar? I don't know what powder would do the trick, though, having never been a sabateur. Flour? Baking soda?

I'd imagine sugar does its best work if they run low on fuel and start sucking near the bottom of the tank. I noticed with all of our boats that the fuel line sucks from a good 1.5" up off the bottom, and for a good reason. An older 2-stroke engine gets its oil mixed in with fuel so if one carb has fuel and the other is partially clogged and starved, those starved pistons will heat up and tear that engine to pieces.

[Hydra009]

Maybe it wasn't sugar? I don't know what powder would do the trick, though, having never been a sabateur. Flour? Baking soda?

Possibly.  Or powdery snow.  Water in the fuel tank is no beuno.

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Ukraine's former energy minister arrested while attempting to cross the border by train headed to Poland

Wiki page of the guy in question

He's been accused of bribery/corruption in general.

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Half of Russia's Pantsir AA have been destroyed

Ukraine continues to winnow Russian infantry forces.  Apparently, the Russians tried another pipeline concealed assault in Sumy region but the Ukrainians knew about it ahead of time and ambushed them as they tried to exit the pipeline.  Reportedly, Russia's "83rd Brigade" has been completely wiped out - all 100 KIA.  Down to a man.

I did some digging and if I'm not mistaken, that post is referring to Russia's 83rd Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade, infamous for a scheme where the soldiers wounded each other to avoid combat and also to collect compensation.  They allegedly scammed the Kremlin out of 200 million rubles.  When the Kremlin found out, they arrested their commander.  The news of them being totally wiped out is unconfirmed, but it's very recent news and it sometimes takes a while for it hit the papers, but I'm cautiously optimistic that their wikipedia page gets updated soon to was/were.

Their slogans are darkly hilarious in hindsight.  "Honour over life".  Check.  "We Need One Victory"  And you still do.

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[Hydra009]

Rubigone: Russia's top drone unit loses drone operator in defection to Ukraine

He wasn't an elite drone operator or anything, having received brief training and failed the exam, but still I'm positive the Ukrainian drone operators will be able to give him a proper education in a more nurturing environment.

He also gives extremely important information about the enemy.  He was "mobilized" during a trip to Moscow - so the Russian authorities target passerby and threaten them with criminal charges or military service.  A choice without much choice, though some do opt for the jail time.

We also know that the enemy uses lots of with "psychological and physical pressure, humiliation, and threats of being sent to 'meat assaults' if conflicts arose with commanders".  None of this is particularly surprising news, but it's nice to get confirmation.

The Rubikon center reportedly occupies Hall D and part of Hall C in the southern part of the facility. This was inferred from statements by propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, which inadvertently revealed the location of the "secret base." Following that, Ukrainian forces launched a drone strike on the facility.

Their OPsec isn't great...

Simonov described the unit's leadership as recruited "by chance," with commanders, including one called "Hunter," chosen for their loyalty and fanaticism. He says fear and intimidation were the primary tools to maintain discipline.

Not surprising, but interesting.  Not great training, but big on fanaticism.  What a fascinating priority.

He cites a turning point when a Molniya UAV strike hit the wrong coordinates, killing a civilian girl in Kupyansk. He was shocked by the battalion's chat reactions and the command's apparent approval of the incident.

Following that, Simonov decided to defect.

Russian telegram - before it was largely cut off by Russian authorities - was filled to bursting with such barbaric cruelty.  I've seen some of it myself.  It makes it very difficult to sympathize with them or anyone who's shaken hands with them.  I talk to a family member about the war and she says "poor Russians" when they get wiped out.  I'm just relieved they can no longer hurt anyone else and wonder if they hurt anyone before they got blown up themselves.

I've seen footage of the Ukrainians taking a knee for funeral processions and fathers burying their sons.  One was holding a funeral for a baby who had been killed - murdered - in a Russian strike - in tears and rocking the tiny coffin as if he were rocking a small child to sleep.  And the Russian pilot or drone operator who did this ghastly crime probably laughed about it afterwards.  So I don't say "poor Russians" anymore and no longer understand that line of thinking.  To me, it is like saying "poor wasps" after burning the nest because they menaced humans and stung children.  Such sentimentality seems...I don't know the word exactly and also don't know if the word to describe this has yet been created.  Naive?  Overly charitable?  Unwary through ignorance?  Something along those lines.

Anyway, this Russian drone operator demonstrated his humanity and took a brave stand against barbaric cruelty and miraculously was able to leave the frontline without getting killed by his comrades (this happens pretty often).  For this, he has my appreciation.  I consider him a good Russian - a person with a heart who had the misfortune of being born and raised in a terrible time and place.  Such people are unfortunately rare but very important assets against Putin.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Russian general promised wife a necklace of severed ears

Yeah...I definitely don't have a lot of sympathy for them when they get blown up while attempting to commit crimes against humanity.

Also, this example underscores that these war crimes aren't spur-of-the-moment things that the Russian soldiers came up with on their own - they come right from the top - from the generals and ultimately Putin.  All this stuff - from attacking schools and churches to using drones for "human safaris" to assassinations and poisonings to torture centers and murder of surrendered Ukrainian troops - all of it is endorsed and approved by the Kremlin, by Putin.

Putin is a sick bastard and his war conduct is a reflection of that.

[Hydra009]

A tale in two acts:

Orcban tries to blackmail Kyiv into restoring Druzhba pipeline - Russian oil that is Orban's lifeblood (along with cholesterol)

Also, it might be a good time to remind everyone that it was Putin, not Kyiv, that cut Russian oil supplies to Europe:

A Russian drone attack in late January damaged the Druzhba pipeline, which transports Russian oil that is vital to Hungary's and Slovakia's energy needs.

A Russian drone damaged the pipeline.  The Ukrainians are trying to repair it, but LOTS of things in Ukraine need repairs, so the Lard Tsar is just going to have to take a number.  Want to complain?  Complain to Putin.  Before or after kissing the ring, it makes no difference to me.

Ukraine strikes Russian pumping station for Druzhba pipeline

The Almetyevsk administration said on Telegram that Russian air defences had brought down several drones over the Almetyevsk district, with falling debris igniting a fire in a local industrial zone. It did not mention the Druzhba pipeline or give any details of possible damage.

Yeah, I bet they didn't.

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Ukraine counteroffensive retakes 400km² territory

I don't wanna get anyone's hopes up too high like in 2023 and tell you guys that Ukraine will just blast through Russian lines tomorrow.  But the latest news is much worse for Russia than for Ukraine.  If this keeps up, it could indeed put Russian troops in a tough position.  So there's reason to be cautiously optimistic.

[Hydra009]

Russian economy eating itself

The economy isn't headed for an imminent crash, but GDP has stagnated, oil revenue has been halved amid Western sanctions, and the government's budget deficit is rapidly draining reserves.

At the same time, two economic systems have emerged. One comprises the military and related industries that receive priority from the Kremlin. And then there's everything else that's been "left in the cold," Prokopenko explained.

"The most dangerous feature of this new structure is the fuel it burns," she added. "Russia's economy now runs on what might be called 'military rent': budget transfers to defense enterprises that generate wages and economic activity."

But the transfers are aimed at assets designed for destruction, Prokopenko pointed out. In other words, the money that keeps Russia's factories humming pays for tanks, armored vehicles, and other weapons that eventually get destroyed or damaged, making them useless for future economic growth.

I heard exactly this months ago from the Ukrainians, but it's nice to see it in an American publication.

Basically, here's the explain-it-like-I'm-five version:

When you invest in a widget factory, you make widgets and then sell those widgets for a profit.  The widget factory can use its profits for future investments.

You invest in a war factory, you make Budhanka vans which then get blown up in Ukraine.  You train and equip meatniks who take a piece of Ukraine and vice versa.  There is no profit.

Wars only fund themselves when you're able to steal enough resources/property to pay for the cost of war.  Between the direct costs of war (the missiles, drones, infantry, etc - granted, the Soviet stockpiles are free, but those more or less ran out) and the indirect costs (countries which would ordinarily buy Russian oil and other products no longer buying it - only partially offset by increased trade with China and India) this war is ruinously costly to Russia.

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Ukraine strikes Russian pumping station for Druzhba pipeline

Update:  The fire at the Kaleykino pumping station is reportedly out of control and firefighters have retreated.  Suffice it to say that no one's going to be pumping anything there for a very long time.

Russia cuts intake, meaning they're out 250k barrels per day.  That's a lot of lost funds for an already struggling economy.

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Azov commander promoted to brigadier general

Background:  Denys "Redis" Prokopenko commanded the Mariupol garrison and was captured by the Russians, he was released as part of a prisoner exchange and continued to fight against the Russians.  He was awarded the title Hero of Ukraine.

Azov brigade (aka 1st Azov Corps) has consistently been operating at hot spots throughout this war and has performed unusually well, given the difficult circumstances.  Case in point, recently capturing 18 Russians within 24 hours, which is a rare feat.