Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

We'll see. Musk makes many promises.

We're seeing lol!  https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1qyupgz/russian_soldier_unhappy_about_the_starlink/

*eats popcorn*

I also saw a video of a Russian soldier tossing his Starlink device on the ground then kicking it like that printer in Office Space.  Once again, impotent rage.  It's a bit of a running theme lately.  Don't get me wrong, Russia still does horrible stuff, but the fact that they're prevented from doing even more horrible stuff enrages them.

[Cassia]

We're seeing lol!  https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1qyupgz/russian_soldier_unhappy_about_the_starlink/

*eats popcorn*

I also saw a video of a Russian soldier tossing his Starlink device on the ground then kicking it like that printer in Office Space.  Once again, impotent rage.  It's a bit of a running theme lately.  Don't get me wrong, Russia still does horrible stuff, but the fact that they're prevented from doing even more horrible stuff enrages them.

HaHa, good. Unfortunately, China operates a system (or two) like Starlink, so we'll see what happens with that as well, I guess.

[Hydra009]

Kicking the Starlink terminal

[Cassia]

Kicking the Starlink terminal

Good work, Ivan. Here is what AI says about a Chinese Starlink and Russia.

Current Progress (2025-2026): China is in the process of building out its constellations (Guowang and Qianfan). Qianfan planned to have around 648 satellites in orbit by the end of 2025, with more than 15,000 by 2030.

The "Thousand Sails" (Qianfan) Project: This Shanghai-based project is the most likely candidate to provide service to international partners. While it has faced launch delays and technical issues, it is intended to offer global coverage by 2027.

Russia's Own Efforts: Russia is developing its own LEO constellation, "Rassvet," but it is behind schedule and not expected to be operational before 2027. Consequently, Russian forces are increasingly looking for alternatives to smuggled Starlink terminals—which SpaceX has recently begun blocking—making Chinese technology a probable immediate replacement.

Strategic Cooperation: While official, public, widespread use of Chinese Starlink-alternatives in Russian military operations has not been confirmed, Russia and China are actively cooperating on space-based reconnaissance and intelligence, with 80% of critical electronics for Russian drones being Chinese-origin as of early 2025.

[Hydra009]

Russia's Own Efforts: Russia is developing its own LEO constellation, "Rassvet," but it is behind schedule and not expected to be operational before 2027. Consequently, Russian forces are increasingly looking for alternatives to smuggled Starlink terminals—which SpaceX has recently begun blocking—making Chinese technology a probable immediate replacement.

Strategic Cooperation: While official, public, widespread use of Chinese Starlink-alternatives in Russian military operations has not been confirmed, Russia and China are actively cooperating on space-based reconnaissance and intelligence, with 80% of critical electronics for Russian drones being Chinese-origin as of early 2025.

Belarus claims to have a Starlink alternative.  But they tellingly didn't demonstrate its use.  That's because it's terrible.  And that poor powerstrip is so overloaded that you could probably cook a steak on top.

But moving on to serious Starlink alternatives, Russia can use its own Yamal satellites, but those are horribly dated and easily jammed.  They could hypothetically find some way to fraudulently register with Starlink, but the fact that they didn't do so right away is a very good thing.  They could also use captured Ukrainian equipment, but they'd need to successfully assault in the first place, and for that you need drones and good comms, so it's a bit of a catch-22.

I'm sure they'll kludge together some sort of solution, but the ongoing ratcheting degradation of the Russian military - depriving it of its ships, tanks, aircraft, officers, logistics, comms, and oil pipelines and refineries to actually pay for the war.  No military in the world can operate effectively when diced up like this.  All they can rely on now are long-range missile strikes, drones, and a winnowing but still high number of troops.  And if the Ukrianians manage to hit their target of 50k russian casualties per month, they'll lose even their numerical advantage.  Reportedly, Russian causalities hit 35k in December, so that's not an unrealistic goal.  When their forces shrink, what then?  It won't be physically possible to conduct assault operations anymore and it'll become increasingly difficult for them to hold onto whatever territory they currently occupy.  It'd be much more difficult to restart the war as well.  No wonder Putin tries to threaten them with increased aggression unless they capitulate now.