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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Shiranu

Quote from: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 10:06:04 AM


I mean this in the most complementary way... Ukrainians are some absolute mad lads.
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Cassia

I have gleaned from history that dictators have a key disadvantage. Their yes men and women rarely say what they really think out of fear of being labelled a dissident or traitor. The result is poor info and decisions. Who wants to tell Hitler the truth, that his favorite plan is stupid? Especially when the last one that was truthful is suddenly gone.

Hydra009


Shiranu

#93
Siege of Kiev has begun, with Russian armor now reported in the city and explosions and light arms lighting up the suburbs The longer they can hold out, the longer Russian morale, which is already seemingly low, can drop.

"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Hydra009

#94
Ukraine reportedly shot down Russian military transport plane  Filled with paratroopers and about 40km south of Kyiv.  Now it's just a mass grave.

Fun fact:  it seats about 126 paratroopers

Shiranu

Quote from: Hydra009 on February 25, 2022, 09:15:15 PM
Ukraine reportedly shot down Russian military transport plane  Filled with paratroopers and just 40km south of Kyiv.  Now it's just a mass grave.

Fun fact:  it seats about 126 paratroopers

Yep, second one of the Il-76s shot down. Eyeballed it carried a hundred, so good to know got some bonus kills as well. That should be about 300 dead paratroopers at least now.
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Shiranu

"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Shiranu

And there went any optimism and hope I had; Putin has begun mobilizing fucking Chechnyan barbarians to come do the dirty work; and whereas the Russians have seemingly been trying to limit damage (neither wanting to be there nor viewing Ukraine as the enemy)... I don't expect those fucking fleas to share that same mindset.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1497183703935688733
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Cassia

In reality, Ukraine has little strategic value to the EU and US, but Putin sees it as a strategic neutral buffer. If Russian folks see a thriving democratic and free Ukraine next door (and that was starting to happen) that is pretty bad for Putin. He probably wants to knock them down hard more than anything else. A long war would be a disaster for Russia.

Hydra009

Quote from: Cassia on February 25, 2022, 11:04:41 PMIn reality, Ukraine has little strategic value to the EU and US, but Putin sees it as a strategic neutral buffer.
Lebensraum

QuoteIf Russian folks see a thriving democratic and free Ukraine next door (and that was starting to happen) that is pretty bad for Putin. He probably wants to knock them down hard more than anything else. A long war would be a disaster for Russia.
Exactly.  It would undermine his regime.


Shiranu

Two Russian MPs are calling for an immediate end to the war, and judging by Putin's demeanor and speech... I think he might actually be starting to get nervous that it's not going as smoothly as hoped and that those around him are growing tired of his excuses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8kkeztq70c
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

drunkenshoe

Yeah, Ukraine has a strategic value, but I don't think Putin; the Russian military strategy has ever seen Ukraine special as a region in some sophisticated development that would be a threat if advanced, rather just breaking a first step. (If developing democracy was any power to stop something, the country I live in wouldn't be in this position right now. Seriously, there is simple a 50 years between us now and 20 years ago.) Invasion of Ukraine is going to make it all clear for Russia to move on or not. They knew there wouldn't be a unified military resistance, and so we can be sure there won't be when going South. In the end everything is discussed from EU or US- Western angle, which looks normal because they are the powers with the military will and power to stop it if they do. In the end, NATO is built against them.

So why not just take Ukraine and start to move on to Georgia and go on from there down to Turkiye, Iran, Afghanistan, China, Mongolia... Any kind of action of moving to West would be the very last phase, wouldn't it? They can always go on sending 'Islamic' terrorists into central Europe anyway.

The worst case scenario, until they reach Turkiye (Bosphorus is a global strategy point), Iran and China... who is really going to do what? That process would also push everyone to take clear sides. I mean real, hard military sides, not political, economical "I'm gonna show you" stuff. Russia has never relied on those in peace time anyway.

"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

drunkenshoe

Quote from: Shiranu on February 26, 2022, 02:04:12 AM
Two Russian MPs are calling for an immediate end to the war, and judging by Putin's demeanor and speech... I think he might actually be starting to get nervous that it's not going as smoothly as hoped and that those around him are growing tired of his excuses.

Can you bottle that optimism and send it to me? Until he really fails on the ground, don't you think trying to interpret the daily demeanor of a genocidal psychopath is a bit wishful thinking?
"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

Cassia

My sweetheart still thinks the US and NATO missed an opportunity when a younger Putin was asking about joining NATO. We decided to punish and largely ignore Russia instead. Ukraine is the slow-motion trainwreck of a result. And yeah, depending how it plays out there are other nearby pebbles in Putin's boots.