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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Jason Harvestdancer

I don't actually care, as neither Russians nor Ukrainians pay taxes to the US government.
White privilege is being a lifelong racist, then being sent to the White House twice because your running mate is a minority.<br /><br />No Biden, no KKK, no Fascist USA!

Shiranu

Quote from: Jason Harvestdancer on January 23, 2022, 11:28:45 PM
I don't actually care, as neither Russians nor Ukrainians pay taxes to the US government.

Nuclear fallout doesn't respect country lines or tax codes. Generally doesn't care much for personal liberties, either.
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon

Cassia

Quote from: Shiranu on January 23, 2022, 11:37:30 PM
Nuclear fallout doesn't respect country lines or tax codes. Generally doesn't care much for personal liberties, either.
It is 100 seconds to midnight
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/

Cassia

The interesting thing about missile silos is well of course they are targeted and would be destroyed....so you can't wait to launch them. They must be “launched on warning.” We will spend roughly $100 billion on our next generation of missiles (qty of 600) which will be ready to use around 2029.

Shiranu

The UK has now pulled out it's government officials, citing "immediate military danger"; meanwhile they are sending warships into the Baltic along with Spain & Denmark IIRC, as well as France and Spain sending group troops to Bulgaria and I believe Denmark. It's still small-scale mobilization, but when the stakes are so high I don't think "small-scale" actually exists anymore.

On the 10% chance I give of this going south, I'm hoping I live close enough to a major military base to be vaporized immediately.

We just got James Webb out there, cant we do this shit some other time?
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon

PopeyesPappy

Quote from: Hydra009 on January 22, 2022, 11:03:10 AM
Yep.  Yet another reason to go renewable.

Oil and gas is used for a lot more than producing energy like plastics and more importantly pesticides and fertilizers. Without the latter most of us would starve pretty quickly, and as far as I know there are no real alternatives. It takes more shit to produce enough fertile ground to feed a person than a person can produce. We are going to need to need oil and gas for a long long time into the future.
Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.


Hydra009

Quote from: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2022, 08:39:47 AM
Oil and gas is used for a lot more than producing energy like plastics and more importantly pesticides and fertilizers. Without the latter most of us would starve pretty quickly, and as far as I know there are no real alternatives. It takes more shit to produce enough fertile ground to feed a person than a person can produce. We are going to need to need oil and gas for a long long time into the future.
Apologies.  What I said was that countries should pursue renewable energy sources for a number of reasons, including lessening their reliance on energy imports from adversarial/authoritarian countries.  What I clearly meant to say was that realistically, oil and gas can in the near future never be used again.  Not one drop.  Sorry for the confusion.

PopeyesPappy

Quote from: Hydra009 on January 24, 2022, 09:15:02 AM
Apologies.  What I said was that countries should pursue renewable energy sources for a number of reasons, including lessening their reliance on energy imports from adversarial/authoritarian countries.  What I clearly meant to say was that realistically, oil and gas can in the near future never be used again.  Not one drop.  Sorry for the confusion.

I wasn't confused and didn't mean to infer you were saying we shouldn't use any more oil period. Just trying to point out that oil is used for more than energy and failing the invention of some new type of fertilizers we are going to need large amounts of the stuff for the foreseeable future even if we get all our energy from elsewhere.

The relevance to this thread is can Europe produce enough crude oil and gas to feed itself without Russian imports if they didn't need fossil fuels for energy production? I don't know the answer to this question.
Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.


Shiranu

QuoteThe relevance to this thread is can Europe produce enough crude oil and gas to feed itself without Russian imports if they didn't need fossil fuels for energy production? I don't know the answer to this question.

Even with Scotland and Norway having some massive deposits, I just don't think Europe has the infrastructure to do that before there would be massive logistical problems.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Oil_and_petroleum_products_-_a_statistical_overview&oldid=315177#Production_of_crude_oil

In 2019 Europe hit a record low in crude oil production; 19.8 million tons. In that same time the EU imported 507.2 million tons and 135.8 million of that came from Russia.

So maybe the EU has healthy reserves in standby, but either way losing Russian oil would still be almost a quarter of their normal crude being lost, and there is no way the common folk don't suffer in that scenario.
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon

PopeyesPappy

Quote from: Shiranu on January 24, 2022, 01:36:44 PM
Even with Scotland and Norway having some massive deposits, I just don't think Europe has the infrastructure to do that before there would be massive logistical problems.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Oil_and_petroleum_products_-_a_statistical_overview&oldid=315177#Production_of_crude_oil

In 2019 Europe hit a record low in crude oil production; 19.8 million tons. In that same time the EU imported 507.2 million tons and 135.8 million of that came from Russia.

So maybe the EU has healthy reserves in standby, but either way losing Russian oil would still be almost a quarter of their normal crude being lost, and there is no way the common folk don't suffer in that scenario.

But the question here is how much of that crude is used for energy production and how much for other necessary things like fertilizers and lubricants? is 20 million tons a year enough for those things?
Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.


Shiranu

On the other side of the world, tensions with China/Taiwan and North Korea/literally everyone have not been all that great either.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/two-us-carriers-enter-schina-sea-counter-malign-influence-2022-01-24/

Lithuania just a few weeks ago signed a contract with Taiwan to establish semiconductor manufacturing there (heavily pissing off China), one of the main things that makes Taiwan so damned valuable to begin with. If Russia invaded the West and stopped that, and China takes Taiwan while we are distracted, that makes their stranglehold on that market so much stronger... and semiconductors are probably THE business to be in (besides maybe cannabis or opioid production) for the future.

Of course this is all speculation based on probably 2% of the total possible information these countries have access to... but I'm bored.
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon

Shiranu

Quote from: PopeyesPappy on January 24, 2022, 01:45:21 PM
But the question here is how much of that crude is used for energy production and how much for other necessary things like fertilizers and lubricants? is 20 million tons a year enough for those things?

From what I'm finding...



If we take energy generation out of the equation it 100% should be enough, but I just cant see Europe being energy sufficient before a war would break out.
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon

Cassia

No matter what, it is a good plan by Putin to further divide the US after Trump got played and then the ruskie disinformation campaign. And if you like Trump you just might sort of like Putin as well. Trump is saying this wouldn't have happened if he was president. Uh....Crimea was the start, traitor moron.

Shiranu

Quote from: Cassia on January 24, 2022, 05:20:48 PM
No matter what, it is a good plan by Putin to further divide the US after Trump got played and then the ruskie disinformation campaign. And if you like Trump you just might sort of like Putin as well. Trump is saying this wouldn't have happened if he was president. Uh....Crimea was the start, traitor moron.

Crimea was under Obama to be fair (with Joe Biden at the time thinking it was a massive failure on our part), but it certainly didn't improve under Trump.

I think your average GOP voter wouldn't mind Putin if he just had an American flag next to him, and certainly your average GOP Congressman seems to like him, like those 6...8?... or so who went to visit Russia on the 4th of July.
All the evils that men cause to each other because of certain desires, or opinions or religious principles, are rooted in ignorance. [All hatred would come to an end] when the earth was flooded with the knowledge of God. - Moses Ben Maimon

Jason Harvestdancer

Quote from: Shiranu on January 23, 2022, 11:37:30 PM
Nuclear fallout doesn't respect country lines or tax codes. Generally doesn't care much for personal liberties, either.
Which one are you expecting to nuke the other in a possible ware between Russia and Ukraine?
White privilege is being a lifelong racist, then being sent to the White House twice because your running mate is a minority.<br /><br />No Biden, no KKK, no Fascist USA!