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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Been a while since I covered Allied aid, but that's just as important as the boots on the ground:

South Korea indirectly supplied more aid than all of Europe combined  Way to focus the payload, SK!

QuoteSouth Korean law prohibits providing weapons to war zones, but U.S. officials sought to persuade Seoul to provide munitions, estimating that about 330,000 155-mm shells could be transferred by air and sea within 41 days from Korea, according to the WP.

"Senior administration officials had been speaking with counterparts in Seoul, who were receptive as long as the provision was indirect," the WP reported. "The shells began to flow at the beginning of the year, eventually making South Korea a larger supplier of artillery ammunition for Ukraine than all European nations combined."

It did not specify the exact amount of shells that South Korea provided.
The pacifist equivalent of having a cheat day, LOL.  Whatever works, I guess.

And on a more serious note, EU countries produced a little over 300k shells iirc, so even though they didn't give an exact figure, I guesstimate that South Korea's figure is just slightly more than that, somewhere between 300k and 400k.

Germany delivers 8th aid package to Ukraine

I know, 3,840 artillery shells isn't exactly a lot, especially compared to those 6-digit figures above.  But every little bit helps.  And one aid package that isn't little is those 2 IRIS-T air defense Germany promised for this winter, bringing the total number of IRIS-T in Ukraine up to five soon.

Germany also doubled its overall Ukrainian aid from $4.25 billion USD to $8.5 billion next year  So expect some beefy aid packages in the future!

Additionally, the German arms company Rheinmetall will produce and provide Ukraine with approximately 40,000 shells next year

Switzerland freezes $8.8 billion USD worth of Russian assets

That's a great first step, but imho, the Ukrainians desperately need the equipment that sort of money can purchase, so if Switzerland - and other countries with frozen Russian assets - could find a way to put that money to use to aid Ukraine, that would be enormously helpful.

Feeling it now?  Poland sends 18 Krab howitzers to Ukraine, more to come.

The US...well...things are not great right now but hopefully we'll put something together soon.  We pressured 3 countries to stop letting Russia evade oil sanctions, which technically counts as something.

Hydra009

After brutal storm, Crimea defenses severely degraded

QuoteYusov confirmed that the storm damaged barriers protecting the bridge, and according to him, the enemy's defensive structures in occupied Sevastopol also suffered serious degradation.

"Of course, the enemy quite rightly fears that the Ukrainian Defense Forces will take advantage of this," he said.

Naturally...Ukrainian drones strike targets in Crimea

They hit an oil terminal and fuel trucks, causing signifacnt damage to Russian logistics.  They also hit parked helicopters, a radar complex, and the control system of anti-air batteries.  As is typical for Crimea beach parties so close to the bridge, the Kerch bridge temporarily closed.  I'm looking forward to the day it permanently closes.

Hydra009

Mysterious explosion rips through Russian military HQ in Melitopol

QuoteThe attack on the headquarters took place during a meeting of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) and National Guard (Rosgvardiya) officers.
Ukrainian Intelligence characterizes it as "an act of revenge committed by representatives of the local resistance movement".

QuoteThe DIU said at least three Rosgvardia officers were killed in the explosion at their headquarters. The information on other Russian losses is being gathered.

Hydra009


Hydra009

When Russians were asked what they'd ask Putin if given the chance, the top question was "when will the war end?"

QuoteIf given the chance to ask President Vladimir Putin any question, 21% of Russians would ask him when the invasion of Ukraine will end, according to a poll published by the Levada Center, a Moscow-based independent polling organization, on Dec. 5.

Other popular questions involved wages/pensions/living standards and the future of Russia including when Putin will step down (spoiler: when he dies)

Interestingly, the top response isn't to ask a question at all - 30% wouldn't ask Putin anything or wouldn't know what to ask.

Hydra009

Russian propagandist Illia Kyva found dead from mysterious gunshot wounds in Moscow region

Can't say I'm surprised.  This guy was born in Ukraine but turned traitor and joined Team Russia (bold strategy, Cotton) and funnily enough, wrote a piece (of merde) fervently wishing for Zelenskyy's death as is the new national pasttime in Russia. Man, these people are so dictator-whipped, it's unreal.  It's also a bit strange and very telling that war-torn Ukraine is still a nicer place to live than Russia.  Ukraine may or may not ultimately be successful in all their war objectives, but the Russians have already lost their country big time.  China rightly (and largely privately now) fears a second Mao, but Russia already has a second Stalin.

Tangent aside, this guy was on a pack of Ukrainian Most Wanted playing cards (like those Iraqi playing cards) and he was the ten of hearts.  Wagner head Prigozhin was the nine of hearts, so it looks like the SBU is well on their way to building the ultimate dead man's hand.  Sorry, I couldn't resist the joke!

Hydra009

Himars o'clock:  Himars shell destroys Russian Mi-8 helicopter

QuoteThe shell fell near the helicopter, and its debris likely caused significant damage to the helicopter.
From the video, it was more or less spot on.  Potato, potatoe - the point is that everything inside is tomato.

Hydra009

#3427


I saw this ERA-strapped Russian truck on Telegram and honestly thought it was a joke and far too outlandish to be true.  I know I say that a lot, but this one was waaay too stupid to be real, like a parody or something.  But apparently it's real.

How it works is actually quite simple:  Impact -> Newton's Third Law -> Darwin Awards all around

The Ukrainians have also been showing photos of pre-WWII Russian "armored" trucks (I think I saw one of those in an Indiana Jones film) and Kamaz trucks with wood beams all over them for internet ridicule, commenting that the added wood helps them burn longer and hotter.

Granted, the Ukrainians notably went a bit overboard with ERA as well, though at least that was on an actual tank.  Also, they've fielded some odd technicals.  It could be a fever dream, but I swear I saw a sports car with a rocket launcher on the back, which is all sorts of wrong but could still *technically* get the job done, which is more than I can say for a lot of Russian vehicles where the turret can barely even move or the radio won't work because of a big ol' BBQ grill was mounted on top or it catastrophically detonates so hard that it could be confused with a space launch.

Hydra009



Hydra009

#3430
The latest batch of verified equipment losses have Russia losing quite a bit more than Ukraine

Destroyed
Russia: 3x surveillance/comm equipment, 4x artillery, 2x tanks (T-80B and unknown tank), 7x IFVs, 1x Truck, 1x civilian car (grand total of 18, weighted towards high-value targets)
Ukraine: 1x comm equipment, 1x artillery (old soviet artillery), 3x civilian cars/trucks (grand total of 5, weighted towards low-value targets)

Damaged
Russia: 1x air defense, 1x comm tower, 2x tanks (T-72 and unknown tank), 4x IFVs, 13x trucks, 1x civilian car/truck, 2x unknown (grand total of 24, moderate-high value)
Ukraine: 1x comm tower, 2x boats, 1x artillery (British howitzer), 2x tanks (T-72, T-64), 1x IFV, 1x APC, 1x truck, 3x civilian car/truck (grand total of 12, moderate value)

All in all, Russia clearly suffered much more serious losses, losing about 3 times as much as Ukraine in the destroyed category and twice as much in the damaged category.  Not only did they lose much more high-value equipment, a larger proportion of their losses were totally destroyed, not merely damaged.

Both sides lost a lot of defenseless equipment like cars and trucks - largely due to enemy FPV drones - underscoring that this is an extremely drone-centric war and a lot of effort is put in by both sides to neutralize enemy logistics.

Hydra009

#3431
The standstill at the Polish border (organized by surprise surprise, pro-Putin far-right) appears to losing effectiveness as Ukraine simply loads the otherwise stalled cargo onto trains to speed it to its destination.  When I see fiascos like this, I'm reminded of the quote: "lead, follow, or get out of the way!"

Hydra009

Special brew just for you: Partisans say they killed at least 24 Russian soldiers with poisoned vodka

24 dead, 11 more in need of hospital care.  Pretty good haul for that sort of thing.  And these are just civilians fighting back.  Arsenic and strychnine - oof.  Quite a potent mix.

I'm honestly a little surprised that this keeps happening.  This is like stepping on the same rake over and over.  Just a month or so ago, a Russian mobnik was complaining that basically everything in or near stores in Ukraine is poisoned or booby trapped.  I thought the stress was getting to him and he was getting a little paranoid.  Though I guess it's not paranoia if they really are out to get you.  Though the circumstances of the poisoning beggars belief:

Quote"two nice girls" tricked the unit in Simferopol, Crimea, into drinking vodka with huge doses of arsenic and strychnine in the bottles, per the Kyiv Post translation.
Now, I'm no Hans Landa, but I'm pretty sure that if Russians soldiers find "nice" people anywhere in Russian-occupied territory, it is 100% not genuine.  And if they come bearing gifts, that's kind of a dead giveaway that something is up.  Just my two rubles.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on December 08, 2023, 02:18:33 AMSpecial brew just for you: Partisans say they killed at least 24 Russian soldiers with poisoned vodka

24 dead, 11 more in need of hospital care.  Pretty good haul for that sort of thing.  And these are just civilians fighting back.  Arsenic and strychnine - oof.  Quite a potent mix.

I'm honestly a little surprised that this keeps happening.  This is like stepping on the same rake over and over.  Just a month or so ago, a Russian mobnik was complaining that basically everything in or near stores in Ukraine is poisoned or booby trapped.  I thought the stress was getting to him and he was getting a little paranoid.  Though I guess it's not paranoia if they really are out to get you.  Though the circumstances of the poisoning beggars belief:
Now, I'm no Hans Landa, but I'm pretty sure that if Russians soldiers find "nice" people anywhere in Russian-occupied territory, it is 100% not genuine.  And if they come bearing gifts, that's kind of a dead giveaway that something is up.  Just my two rubles.
And that's just a tiny bit extra because two rubles is now worth 2.2 cents. A ruble was worth about 43 cents back in 2008, so Putin's Russia is not exactly a great investment, even with all those natural resources such a lithium and oil. Hard to imagine how they could frig-up that advantage up so badly.

Hydra009

Bulgarian legislature overrides the President's veto, Bulgaria will supply Ukraine with about 100 APCs after all

QuoteThe Soviet-era armored personnel carriers, which were to be handed over to Ukraine, were purchased several decades ago. The vehicles were not used, and the Bulgarian Interior Ministry spent money on their storage.
Sounds like a win-win.  I wonder why the President was against it.  Here we go, he says that "the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the needs of the Border Police and firefighters of the country were not taken into account."  Firefighter APCs, uh huh.  Let me just...found it.

QuoteUnder Bulgaria's constitution, the president's job is mostly ceremonial, but whoever holds the post can influence policy, veto legislation and sign international treaties.
Interesting...