Quote from: Hydra009 on April 23, 2023, 11:57:53 PMHow many Western tanks does Ukraine currently have?

Answer: 70 (including the 6 Leopard 2 in transit from Spain, expected to arrive within the week)

More tanks will come in time and more tank types are in the works (UK's Challenger, US Abrams, France's AMX-10RC, various upgraded Soviet-era tanks from ex-Soviet countries) and of course the IFVs, but for now, that's the hand dealt.

It would bet $20 that Ukraine will launch a NATO style attack on Crimea in the summer and these tanks will have a big impact. I am sure the Russians are digging in down there like it's WW1.

Quote from: Cassia on April 24, 2023, 07:48:50 AMIt would bet $20 that Ukraine will launch a NATO style attack on Crimea in the summer and these tanks will have a big impact. I am sure the Russians are digging in down there like it's WW1.

My money is on Melitopol then Crimea.  But yeah, Russia is about to lose the entire southern front.

And speaking of Crimea, the naval port of Sevastopol and semi-permanent home of the Black Sea fleet was again under drone attack and rocked by explosions, yet Russia says there was no damage at all (almost certainly a sign that there was significant damage)

Red-on-red:  Shootout between Wagner and regular Russian soldiers in Luhansk region

QuoteAccording to the General Staff, there were casualties on both sides as a result of the clash.

"They (different Russian forces) are trying to shift responsibility for their own tactical miscalculations and losses onto each other," the report reads.

Oof.  If they think they'd had tactical miscalculations and losses, just wait.  Because soon, it will get much, much worse.  But by then, there won't be enough time for any finger-pointing.

China walks back its ambassador's remarks questioning sovereignty of ex-soviet states after backlash, deletes transcript

Doesn't matter, their position is clear: they'll try to justify any Russian aggression because the have similar designs on countries near China.  Partners in crime.

Russia bombards Kherson in retaliation for Ukrainian advances past the Dnieper river

Interesting that they didn't target the Ukrainian military (indicating that they likely can't) but instead attacked civilian targets in a known location to once again try their hand at terror tactics that didn't work in the past (this time'll be different, though /s)

Also interesting that the Ukrainian military directly commented on the ISW report, saying that it somewhat jumped the gun.  Exact words: "preceded actual reality and ran ahead a little"

To me, this is something of a confirmation - the ISW report was not 100% accurate (no independent analysis is), but it was on the right track, it just needs to make its estimates more conservative in this instance.  So Ukrainian forces are indeed in the process of setting up on the far side of the Dnieper river, they just haven't made as much progress as ISW predicted...yet.

The Ukrainians* have so much faith and hope in us Americans, when we Americans seem to be utterly hopeless about our own situation.



*(the Ukrainians that they specifically interviewed, but my experiences with the limited Ukrainian community that exists in my community + the internet makes me feel like it's a pretty consistent view Ukrainians do hold)*

The US has its share of problems, but it can be relied on to come to Europe's defense in times of major war, as we have in the past.  Especially when it's a blatant land grab and a dictatorship versus a democracy.  It's in our best interests that such countries survive and thrive, since they make for excellent trading partners and allies in the future.

Culturally, I'd say that there is a lot of overlap between Ukraine and the US, especially a strong sense of nationalism and self-rule.  I personally admire their adaptability, grit, cool heads, and seemingly endless optimism - in polls, they overwhelmingly believe that they'll win, they'll rebuild, they'll join NATO, etc.  I fear that Americans in their position would be more fear-stricken and willing to capitulate and are more vulnerable to coercion (esp nuclear blackmail).

I've read that the Ukrainians are very community-oriented and in crisis, really pull together as a community.  Also that they lack the british sense of punctuality - the "if you're on time, you're late" mindset.  So business meetings start late and likely end late.  They're also very traditionalistic yet pluralistic and very friendly to foreigners, provided of course that the foreigners show good behavior.

Ukraine destroys electronic warfare vehicle used by VDV

This happened in Zaporizhzhia.

https://i.imgur.com/WaQ3xlx.mp4

(note the Z-painted tank in the background)

There's an app for that:  Ukrainian forces using Steam Deck to control turrets

Now there's a sentence I never thought I'd type.  Steam Deck is basically a portable computer meant to play video games but it's Linux-based and can theoretically run third-party applications to do whatever.  Apparently, there's an app for controlling turrets.

Well, at least with Valve in the war, we can rest easy knowing that there will be no world war 3.

ISW: looming Ukrainian counterattack causes Russians anxiety

QuoteRussia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation of Ukrainian territories with Russians. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on April 26 that Russia is trying to change the ethnic composition of Ukraine by actively conducting a large-scale resettlement of people mainly from poorer and remote regions of Russia into Ukraine.

This is textbook genocide and no doubt a pretext for conflict in the future.  Among the many and outright false and/or logically inconsistent reasons for this war was the desire to "protect Russians".  Deliberately placing Russians in occupied territory, right in the path of a Ukrainian counteroffensive seems like an intentional effort to cause them harm and thus give Russia a plausible casus belli in future conflicts.  Also, such moves are likely to complicate Ukrainian reintegration efforts.

QuoteCompetition among Russian private military companies (PMCs) is likely increasing in Bakhmut.

QuoteThe "Potok" personnel also reported poor treatment by Wagner fighters who threatened to shoot "Potok" personnel if they withdrew from the line of contact. A Wagner fighter claimed in an interview published on April 26 that "Potok" fighters abandoned Wagner's flanks at night. A Russian milblogger claimed that "Potok" fighters abandoned their positions in Bakhmut due to a lack of ammunition. ISW previously assessed that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely views the proliferation of PMCs around Bakhmut as competition, and it appears that the increased prevalence of other PMCs around Bakhmut may be causing substantial friction.

Potok is GazProm's private military and direct competitor to Wagner.  And clearly, they do not get along.  This will likely further impair Russia's war effort, since war by definition requires cooperation to succeed.

QuoteThe Kremlin is likely setting numerous conditions for domestic crackdowns to give Russian officials carte blanche in prosecuting anyone perceived to be against Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. The harsh punishments stipulated by these laws likely aim to promote widespread self-censorship amongst the Russian population

QuoteA prominent Russian milblogger insinuated that Ukraine may be planning counteroffensive actions in order to ruin May 9 celebrations in Russia. The invocations of May 9 suggest that the Russian information space continues to place symbolic importance on dates associated with Russia's Great Patriotic War, which continues to shape discourse on the prospects of the war.

QuoteIncreasingly despondent and panicked rhetoric emanating from prominent information space figures suggests that the Russian information space has not yet settled on a line about how to address significant and growing concerns about the near future.

Ukraine receives Skynex anti-air system

QuoteSkynex is designed for short-range air defense. The system is capable of shooting down drones or cruise missiles with 35mm projectiles. The cost of two Skynex units is estimated at 182 million euros (roughly $200 million USD)

Russian state media floats using remote-controlled toy tanks packed with explosives against Leopard 2 tanks

Yet again, shades of World War 2 when the Nazis tried something similar.  They rarely reached their target, but the few times they did, they did do damage.  Still, the bang/buck ratio was abysmal.  Waste of resources.

The main differences is that the Nazi goliath drones were professionally-built and contained 60-100kg of explosives.  The Russian version is literally just a cheap plastic toy made in China containing maybe 15-20kg of explosives.  Ten bucks says it won't even be able to move above a snail's pace, if that.  And Russian mishandling of explosives makes this a dicey proposition anyway.

If this article sounds familiar, it's because months ago, there was an article about the Russians putting machine guns on ground-based drones and using those to beef up security.  Though if memory serves, the gun was too heavy for the drone and it couldn't aim or move.  But these trivial details were left out of the fanfare announcement to the Russian public.  Nothing was heard about them since.

Quote from: Hydra009 on April 27, 2023, 02:51:19 PMRussian state media floats using remote-controlled toy tanks packed with explosives against Leopard 2 tanks

Yet again, shades of World War 2 when the Nazis tried something similar.  They rarely reached their target, but the few times they did, they did do damage.  Still, the bang/buck ratio was abysmal.  Waste of resources.

The main differences is that the Nazi goliath drones were professionally-built and contained 60-100kg of explosives.  The Russian version is literally just a cheap plastic toy made in China containing maybe 15-20kg of explosives.  Ten bucks says it won't even be able to move above a snail's pace, if that.  And Russian mishandling of explosives makes this a dicey proposition anyway.

If this article sounds familiar, it's because months ago, there was an article about the Russians putting machine guns on ground-based drones and using those to beef up security.  Though if memory serves, the gun was too heavy for the drone and it couldn't aim or move.  But these trivial details were left out of the fanfare announcement to the Russian public.  Nothing was heard about them since.

Imagine getting close enough to a leopard II to deploy that toy. That would require a tactical mistake on the part of the Ukrainians.

Quote from: Cassia on April 27, 2023, 05:02:07 PMImagine getting close enough to a leopard II to deploy that toy. That would require a tactical mistake on the part of the Ukrainians.

It would require at least half a dozen people to be simultaneously striken with blindness.  Unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians use combined arms, so there would likely be an IFV and drone helping with target acquisition.  I've seen footage of them shooting down a cruise missile with a machine gun, which is ridiculously good alretness and marksmanship.  Sneaking up to point blank range with a tonka truck is basically impossible, but 20kg of explosives wouldn't do all that much to a Leopard 2 even if it went off perfectly.