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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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the_antithesis

Quote from: Hydra009 on January 19, 2023, 06:54:02 PMLOL, if Russians seriously have this impression of the US, they'd be in for a rude awakening, especially in the South, where none of this is even slightly true.

I honestly don't care what they think about us. I think they're crappy.

Hydra009

Quote from: the_antithesis on January 19, 2023, 08:09:58 PMI honestly don't care what they think about us. I think they're crappy.
Listening leads to understanding leads to winning.  We're always listening.

Also, I often find stupidity, especially massive stupidity, to be genuinely hilarious, since I can sense (but the object of mirth does not) the twisted tea can coming.  And finally, sometimes you must make a mockery of something horrible to lessen its hold over others.

Hydra009

Finland's 12th aid package to more than double all its previous aid packages combined (Total contribution from 190 million Euros to 590 million Euros)

Like other aid packages, this one is secret to ensure its safe arrival.  All we know for now is that it includes heavy artillery and munitions.

Hydra009

Netherlands considering supplying F-16s to Ukraine

And they're definitely willing to help pay for Leopard 2 tanks to be sent to Ukraine.

Hydra009

#1984
Europe is winning the energy war against Russia

Fantastic summary of the situation so far.  Essentially, Russia was hoping that an energy-starved Europe would cave in to Russian demands, stop sanctions, and look the other way with Ukraine.  Instead the exact opposite has happened.

Europe has enjoyed an unseasonably warm winter so far and has adapted to a lack of Russian oil.

Russia, on the other hand, lost a lot of business and has NOT been able to adapt by shifting its oil exports to other countries.  China buys oil with a 30-40% discount, which pretty much obliterates profits.

Russia, not Europe, is the one experiencing severe economic woes.  And Putin's strategic blunder benefits the US in particular:

QuoteIt is especially ironic that the actual beneficiary of Putin's failed geostrategic gamble is the United States. In 2022 the US overtook Russia as a gas supplier to Europe. Most European leaders rushed to secure LNG deals with the US, leading to an additional $1 trillion in revenue for American energy companies such as Cheniere Energy (LNG.A.) and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA). The energy crisis deepened cooperation between Washington and Brussels, leaving Europe all but disconnected from Russia and more reliant on the US. Synergistically, this new energy cooperation will strengthen the transatlantic alliance which bodes well for the Ukrainian war effort as well.
Essentially, Russia is cut off from a lucrative energy trade, with the US somewhat filling that role.  And deepened economic ties between the US and EU strengthens both parties and ultimately means a stronger NATO.

QuoteWhile the war is not over, Russia – and Putin – have already lost. Whatever the outcome, Russia lost the European energy market and a principal source of revenue, and Europe shed its dependence on Russian energy and is better off as the result.

Hydra009

#1985
Russian S-400 confirmed destroyed

Russia's most advanced air defense system in Ukraine.  First time one has been destroyed in this war.

Hydra009

Russian social media says they blew up an Abrams tank (there are zero Abrams tanks there)



And they killed the black guy, too.  :'(  Even their fantasies are savage!

Dark Lightning

Now, all that is necessary is for an Abrams to reach Ukrainian soil...

Cassia

Boy, that US tank looks like it was getting hot in that bright sun, so they parked under the green trees in Ukraine in Jan and then for some reason photo-shopped all that yellow desert sand.

Hydra009

Cyprus is reportedly ready to send its T-80U soviet-era tanks to Ukraine in exchange for Leopard 2 tanks

Ukrainian forces are already well-versed with those, so they'd be able to put those into use right away.

Hydra009


Shiranu

#1991
I randomly tuned into the World Economic Forum, where Scholtz was in the middle of talking about... "Last year, Russia brought an unjustified war of imperial aggression right to Europe's doorsteps."

I find it embarrassing that an American of all people knows more about European geography than a German leader - Ukraine is not the "doorstep" of Europe, it's in Europe; it's the foyer and a bunch of barbarians have burst down the door. But something tells me he made a Freudian slip - that Germans really don't view Ukrainians as "Europeans" but as Slavic inferiors.

In Germany, the people of my grandmother - the Serbja, indigenous Slavic people along the Oder on the Germany/Poland border  - face discrimination and the erasure of their language and culture to this day; it is only holding on by a thread. This is the flag of Upper Lusatia - it's not a coincidence it's patterned the way it is.



A lot of culture, a lot of history of the people's between Germany and Russia has been lost - starting with at least the Teutonic Knights, through the era of the Mongol, and into the mass genocide of life and culture that took place in WW1 and WW2; the Nazis intentionally destroying historical sites of Slavic cultures and erasing any written history they could find so that none would ever remember these "inferiour" people once had culture.

Some habits die hard for some people - I fear some in Germany view the death of Slavs as a return to the "good ol' days."
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Hydra009

What a weird thing to say.  Maybe he intended to say "NATO's doorsteps" or "the EU's doorsteps" but bungled it and substituted "Europe's doorsteps", which is like you say, geographically incorrect.  The Ural mountains (well within Russian borders) is the most agreed-upon eastern border of Europe.

I too have been frustrated by German reluctance as of late.  The Marders are nice, but Leopards are nicer.  Hopefully the protests and intense diplomatic pressure will change officials' minds.

Hydra009

#1993
On the plus side, Ukrainian forces will soon start training on Leopards, which would be utterly illogical unless Ukraine is ultimately getting Leopards. 

Thus I'm reasonably certain that one or several countries will formally announce that they are sending Leopards by the time training is done.

Though why that announcement wasn't today or last week or 8 months ago, I don't know.

Hydra009

Daily Russian kia: 860

Ukraine has been very busy lately, every day is in the 700s or low 800s.  This is the highest one recently.

This comes as Ukrainian forces blew up a Wagner HQ in Soledar.  Lots of similar videos.  Much of the elevetated kill count can be attributed to excellent Ukrainian recon, very accurate artillery shots, and Wagner's tendency to bunch up and poor ability to use cover (poor training, poor general intelligence)