Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

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Putin tells the world in general and Trump in particular that he's ready for peace - then tells his own people that he'll exploit the "cooling" of relations between the US and Ukraine with increased aggression.  Interesting.

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Putin: Give Donbass to us diplomatically!
*under his voice* because we are unable to fully take it by force.

[Cassia]

I'm looking at a Russian infantry training video and I'm watching the three fattest guys in Russia slowly bumble into a trench and make pewpew noises while very, very, very slowly walking down an empty trench.  One of them is doing that fat guy heavy breathing thing and it honestly looks like he's about to drop towards the end of the video.

Apparently, they're practicing trench clearing, but at such a glacial pace that the enemy could order an artillery piece from IKEA, construct and load it, then fire it on them before they even so much as make it to the enemy trench.

People talk about how Russia has a huge population as if their entire population can be converted into soldiers, which it can't.  They can't even convert much of the men of the right age because of much more severe substance abuse and health problems than other countries.  This is what they're working with, take a good long look.  Would Russia deploy these people if they had other, better options?

These guys will get killed immediately but their commander is glad because he doesn't report it for a good while and just keeps their salaries. Putin is paying these guys way more than they can make any other way. Their families are all for it, especially if Ivan was just hanging around drinking vodka all day. Grab a toilet while you are there. I bet officers take bribes for who gets to skip out of missions. There is hardly a single transaction in Russia that is not saddled by corruption.

[Hydra009]

All that is true and it's even worse than that.  Infantry often arrive without needed gear and have to pay the commander for that out of pocket and for outrageous prices.  Also, some of the commanders will procure alcohol/drugs for the soldiers (I mean, how else are they going to get it?), also at significant markup.  That huge signing bonus gets spent quick.

Though I should note that some commanders frown heavily on substance abuse, especially when it interferes with combat operations and sometimes heap all sorts of physical abuse on offenders, everything from just slapping them around to shocking them to tying them to a tree in very cold conditions or putting them in a hole.  Which commander you get is just the luck of the draw.

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Busy night for Russia

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Busy day for the Russians, too.

Russian Il-76 military transport plane crashes in Sudan, and not for the first time.  This isn't even the first time they've recently lost a Il-76 in Sudan.  Keeping all these plane crashes straight is like trying to remember every drop of rain that falls during a hurricane.  Malfunction, all crew dead, yadda yadda lada...

Russian oil tanker hit by Ukrainian "Sea Baby" naval drone.  There's really great footage of the strike captured by a second naval drone.

The ship was traveling at top speed through Ukraine's exclusive economic zone, with its transponder turned off, when it was hit, the SBU source said.

The vessel had been moving toward Russia's Novorossiysk port terminal, a key Russian oil hub, the source added.

It's likely that the oil tanker was not loaded with oil, since Ukraine prefers to hit them while they're empty to avoid an ecological disaster on their own shore and allies' shores.  Still, it leaks its own fuel and if it sinks, it'll definitely add to the overcrowding problem down there with the Moskva, other warships, tankers, ferries, planes, helicopters, etc.

Ukraine also seized a shadow fleet vessel which boldly docked at Odessa.  Not every day the enemy ties their horse to your hitching rail.  This one is accused of illegally transporting agricultural products from Crimea.  The ship's owner "regularly changed the name of the ship and the formal beneficiaries to third countries".

Not Stonks: Russia's Syzran oil refinery shuts down indefinitely.  The refinery is just east of Moscow, and was hit by Ukraine on December 5th.

Russian forces were smashed at Pokrovsk (I'm telling you guys, it's always unease and panic in pro-Ukrainian onlookers for days/weeks/months, then bam, the Ukrainians make minor miracles happen)

The battle for Pokrovsk is of course far from over, but that's the point - Putin has declared it captured several times so far, and the Ukrainians are proving him wrong over and over again.  Putin is a liar, Russian equipment and manpower is thrown into the Ukrainan woodchipper - gone forever - and the Ukrainians hold on for one more day.  This is a very good outcome, given the difficult circumstances.

<<update: I'm looking at the uncensored footage right now and there's at least 7 brightly burning Russian vehicles in a line, all on a small strip of road.  Highway of Death vibes.>>

And the cherry on top: the US House authorizes aid to Ukraine

The bill reauthorizes the use of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), a Pentagon-led program that supplies arms to Ukraine through contracts with U.S. defense companies. It stipulates that Ukraine will receive $400 million per year via the USAI for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

The legislation bars the Pentagon from reducing the number of troops "permanently stationed in or deployed" to Europe below 76,000 for longer than 45 days.

It also requires the Defense Department to notify Congress within 48 hours of any decision to restrict intelligence sharing with Ukraine, according to Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S. Olha Stefanishyna.

Those last two provisions would be strange in any other administration, but we're in the situation we're in and this administration has threatened just that.  Kremlin agent or not, there is a certain pattern of behavior that's clearly hostile to Ukraine.  Whatever is motivating it is of less importance than fact that it's going on under our noses and souring our relations with Ukraine and other allies.  Broken trust is not easily mended.  Kudos to the House for stepping up.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine hit a Russian offshore oil platform, halting operations

This happened in the Caspian Sea.  Not the one bordering Ukraine, the one bordering Russia and Iran.  They hit a cargo ship there back in August, so it makes sense that they can hit stationary targets there, too.  Definitely putting a hurt on the Russian oil business every step of the way - extraction, refining, logistics - every single stage is fraught with peril and losses.

Ukraine also hit one of Russia's largest chemical plants in Veliky Novgorod (just south of Saint Petersburg, east of the Baltic states).  The Akron plant makes explosives for Putin.

This probably isn't related to Ukraine, but a massive fire erupted at a market in St Petersburg.  I believe this happened before Ukraine launched their drone attacks.  Careless smoking?  I kinda feel bad for them, but then I remembered that Russia was responsible for an arson attack on a market in Poland in 2024 and Russian artillery strike on a market in Dobropillia Ukraine in 2025.  Maybe there's an Aesop in there about an arsonist upset that his own house burned down.  Shoulda been nicer.

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Trump plans envision major U.S. investment in Russia, restoring oil flows to Europe
Trump team weighs forming 5-nation group with Russia to replace G7

Certainly not dodging the foreign agent suspicion...

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Gerasimov better steer clear of windows for the next...forever.



Ukraine has been kicking ass and taking names lately.  Very difficult, harrowing road to get here, but things are finally turning around.

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"Ivan, why do we have six bolts after finish job?"

You joke, but I think you might actually be pretty close to the truth.

Looks like the fuselage just ripped apart mid-flight.  And suspiciously, very shortly after repairs.  So yes, it's possible that they missed a spot and wound up with extra bolts.

And apparently, that's the only one they managed to get airworthy(ish).  So they're not only down one AN-22, they're ALL down atm (they didn't have many to start with, just eight in total iirc, so it's not a huge loss.  But I'll take it.)

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Ukraine destroys pipe Russians used to enter Kupiansk

They rigged several places with TNT and I imagine it wasn't pleasant for anyone unfortunate enough to still be inside. 

There are also reports of another case of food poisoning among the Russian troops

Afaik, the last big incident of food poisoning among Russian troops was in June 2025 when a several Russians were similarly on cots in Donetsk after reportedly drinking "bad" water.  They were all in very bad shape and reportedly, at least one died.

Lots of poisonings happened early in the war, with Russian troops infamously accepting laced vodka and food from "two cute girls" in occupied Ukraine.  In 2022, Russia accused Kyiv of "chemical terrorism" when its troops came down with botulism - almost certainly from eating expired canned meat.  (around this time, Russia would frequently use chemical weapons themselves, so this accusation might be deliberately crafted to deflect away from their own misdeeds in a crybully fashion)

In the past two years, Russia has lost at least 32 troops to bad food and 255 to substance abuse.  Much lower than I expected.

n late 2023, the independent Russian outlet Vertska reported that up to 15% of Russian soldiers in combat zones were taking substances such as mephedrone, amphetamines, and alpha-PVP, which is also known as "salt."

Again, much lower than I expected.  15% would be outrageously high for a Western, disciplined military.  But for Russia, it's a Tuesday.

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Sub gets dominated: Ukraine hits Russian submarine with its own submersible naval drone

Ukraine blew up a Russian submarine docked in a secure naval base

The Russian Black Sea Fleet Remnants are pretty much permanently docked at Novorossiysk Bay, unable to patrol due to fear of Ukrainian naval drones.  However, they can still launch long-range missiles at Ukraine, especially from submarines.  Well, Ukraine just made that much more difficult because now they can be hit from underwater, which is a much-needed capability because the Russians fortified that bay as much as they could, with barriers on the surface and lots of gunners (though their accuracy was lousy on the last footage).

The fleet remnants can no longer run and they can no longer hide.  They're SOL unless Russia can come up with something fast.