Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

The first batch of Ukrainian pilots have successfully completed training on the F-16 today (a different batch completed F-16 maintenance a couple days ago).  So now they just have to get the actual jets and they'll be in the air.

Please note that Ukraine has specifically gone after Russian aircraft and air defense recently.  One wonders why.  Well, it's not like it's some big secret.  It's to weaken Russian command of the air in preparation for resurgent Ukrainian airpower.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

There's new footage of the ATACMS attack on the S-400 launchers near Mospino airfield in Donetsk region

3 Russian air defense start launching missiles, presumably to intercept the incoming ATACMS.  The ATACMS hit between the three launchers and cluster munitions went everywhere, without a doubt showering the one on the right (the other two are harder to see because of the smoke).  The air defense on the left immediately explodes, followed quickly by the one on the right, sending missiles in random directions.  The one in the rear presumably was also destroyed outright or so severely damaged that it'll never be used again, but it's impossible to see with all the explosions and smoke.

Suffice it to say that the ATACMS strike was wildly successful, directly contradicting Kremlin accounts.

My first thought after seeing this footage is that Russia really should invest in vehicles that don't catastrophically explode when damaged.  My second thought is that every country in the world is probably watching this footage and cancelling any remaining orders for s-300/s-400.  If the goal of the system is to shoot down incoming missiles and it clearly can't shoot down incoming missiles, then what's the point?

[Hydra009]

Ukraine captured another T-90M tank

It took 12 tries and a Ukrainian tank got stuck trying to bring it back, which just goes to show just how difficult it is to successfully capture these things.  But they did it and recovered their own stuck tank, too.  So the end result is Russia -1 and Ukraine +1 tank.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Russia hit civilian centers in Kharkiv today - a mall and a park.  :(

[Hydra009]

Russian losses top 500k:



And yes, the pace has picked up steadily, more than doubling the usual rate from previous years.

[ferdmonger]

Ukraine captured another T-90M tank

It took 12 tries and a Ukrainian tank got stuck trying to bring it back, which just goes to show just how difficult it is to successfully capture these things.  But they did it and recovered their own stuck tank, too.  So the end result is Russia -1 and Ukraine +1 tank.

The misery of the average soldier trying recover those vehicles cannot be over-
looked. Under fire, sleep deprived, filthy.  Good on you guys. 

[Hydra009]

The misery of the average soldier trying recover those vehicles cannot be over-looked. Under fire, sleep deprived, filthy.  Good on you guys.

There was a recent video of an African mercenary working for the Russians training with some sort of anti-tank bazooka and he seemed reasonably competent in the video.  But in actual combat, he couldn't make heads or tails of the thing and after a couple of minutes (an eternity in the heat of combat) he gave up and threw it down in frustration.  My guess is that sleep deprivation and exhaustion were big factors.

Things are like that for both sides.  My brother says that's why American military training is so strict and rigorous, so you're doing the right things more or less automatically.  Because when your position is getting pounded and you haven't slept for three days, you're not going to be able to do much deliberation.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

The topic has come up yet again of Ukraine striking military targets in Russia - a country currently waging full-scale war against Ukraine and showing no restraint on what it targets, as we have seen in the brutal attacks on civilians in Kharkiv and elsewhere.  NATO head Jens Stoltenberg says Ukraine should have the option to strike military targets in Russia.

To the best of my knowledge, Germany and Italy are the main opponents of this proposal, while it is supported by countries closer to Russia like Poland, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia (which also claimed that unknown countries providing Ukraine with military aid are allowing unrestricted use but not saying so publicly - the US comes readily to mind as a distinct possibility)

The US has generally been reluctant to allow this, but Blinken is reportedly urging Biden to change his mind.  Here I dryly remark that it is within both the US's and Biden's character to make the correct choice eventually but only after a great deal of prodding.

Western officials continue to publicly debate Ukraine's right to use Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia amid Russian efforts to persuade the West to continue its self-imposed limitations and divide the NATO alliance. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated during an interview with The Guardian published on May 25 that Poland supports Ukraine's right to strike military targets within Russia and that the West must stop "constantly limiting" its support for Ukraine.[6]  Sikorski noted that Russia continues to strike civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and that Europe must improve its ability to "play the escalation game... by keeping Putin guessing." Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stated on May 26 that Ukraine should only use Italian-provided weapons within Ukraine, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that there is "no reason" to lift the West's restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons to strike within Russia as Germany's restrictions "work."[7] Chairperson of Ukraine's Permanent Delegation to NATO's Parliamentary Assembly Yehor Chernev insinuated that the White House is reviewing its policy restricting Ukraine's ability to strike targets in Russia with US-provided weapons, which is consistent with the New York Times May 22 report that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is urging US President Joe Biden to lift these restrictions.[8] ISW continues to assess that Western limitations on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russia have created a sanctuary in Russia's border area from which Russian aircraft can conduct glide bomb and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions and where Russian forces and equipment can freely assemble before entering combat.[9]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26-2024

Why should Russian troops have a sanctuary zone near the border with Ukraine where they are untouchable while Ukrainian civilians as far away from the frontline as Odessa and Lviv must live in fear?

I'd also love to hear from Scholtz why military aid to Ukraine in the form of shells and artillery and tanks and aircraft is acceptable and not escalatory while Taurus missiles are unacceptable and escalatory.  Ukraine is fighting and sacrificing every day to try to end a war that it didn't start - does it not make sense that it should be better equipped to do so?  That's precisely the rationale with the tanks and artillery, yet missiles are somehow a completely different proposition.

[Cassia]

HIMARS on the Kremlin. Old Putin will be down in the basement for a few years if you need him.

[Hydra009]

HIMARS on the Kremlin. Old Putin will be down in the basement for a few years if you need him.

It would certainly make Putin more amenable to peace talks.  The only reason why Putin keeps this war going is because he still thinks he can win.  When he hits an insurmountable wall - which he hasn't yet - it's over.

[ferdmonger]

His nuclear blustering is more anemic every time he brings it up.  Sorry Vlad.  You've cried wolf too often.  Save your empty threats for the home audience.  You've turned  that three day 'special operation' into a shit storm. I wish there was a way for the Russian citizenry to understand this.   

[ferdmonger]

PS - and learn how to read a fucking map.  Vlad gets easily confused with that whole 'Russia not Russia' international bordery thingy.