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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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There's been a LOT going on lately and I can't really do it justice.

Major developments:

* Russian bombardment of Ukraine continues, hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure and injuring/killing civilians.

* For their part, Ukraine struck another Russian oil refinery - iirc one that was previously damaged - and did massive damage there.  There's some footage of it that is particularly fiery and dramatic.

* Russia invaded northeastern Ukraine from the Russian border.  While early reports had them taking ground, they were ultimately repulsed.  Ukraine had to bring in some reserve units to deal with it, which highlights the severity of the threat.

It is sometimes described as a "surprise attack" in Western media - but not in Ukrainian media - and that's because Ukrainian media has issued warnings about amassed Russian infantry and equipment along the Russian border in the northeast direction for weeks if not months.  So no, it wasn't a surprise attack, only surprising to some western journalist who apparently wasn't paying much attention.

With intensified operations off and on along the southern, eastern, and north-eastern parts of the front, Russia appears to be trying to steal as much land as possible before the US aid package starts to materially manifest for Ukraine.

* Germany is planning to purchase 3 more Himars from the US and donate them to Ukraine.  I am out of clue as to why the US doesn't just donate them directly.

* the US is readying another aid package for Ukraine - this one for $400 million worth of military hardware.

* Poland, which already build a border wall with Belarus in 2022, is now preparing to build trenches and bunkers along its border with Belarus and Russia.  Given their history, Poland is understandably leery about Russians on the march.  And since Russia continues to recruit enough infantry to replenish their ranks - almost 30k/month iirc - and has embarked on a nakedly aggressive campaign unlikely to end anytime soon, so a better-safe-than-sorry approach seems prudent.

Dark Lightning

If those hard line republicans didn't have their heads up their asses, Ukraine would've already got a lot of what they need. If that isn't enough reason to flush them along with the orange turd, I don't know what is.


Just desserts: Invaders hit while gathering for celebrations at a Donestk Restaurant

Himars strike.  So it wasn't so much terrifying for the invaders as it was their comrades in the parking lot.

Russian propagandists claim that it hit two uninhabited buildings and no one was injured, as usual.  They also say they destroyed a himars on the second story of a building and have destroyed more himars than Ukraine has ever had LOL, so I don't think they're being very truthful.  Russian telegram is suspiciously outraged about an attack that allegedly did nothing.

In an especially cheeky move, the propagandist added that "cardio is healthier than driving a car".  I agree, and certainly those Russians in the parking lot bravely running away did indeed extend their lives.  They should keep on running all the way to the border and live even longer lives.

Unfortunately, it seems that the strike may have been a tad premature - himars o'clock comes early sometimes - and apparently quite a few were still in the parking lot when it hit.  A surprise party next time, probably.


Quote from: Dark Lightning on May 10, 2024, 08:21:35 PMIf those hard line republicans didn't have their heads up their asses, Ukraine would've already got a lot of what they need. If that isn't enough reason to flush them along with the orange turd, I don't know what is.

They don't have their heads up their asses.

They're on Putin's payroll.

Dark Lightning

Quote from: the_antithesis on May 11, 2024, 04:30:54 PMThey don't have their heads up their asses.

They're on Putin's payroll.

They certainly act that way!


US approves sale of three himars to Germany, which Germany will send to Ukraine

Ukraine will also receive additional IRIS-T missiles, purchased by Canada from Germany


Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery in Volgograd

Whoops!  Wrong article.  Wow, 12 billion rubles (~$100 million usd) worth of modernizations in 2022.  Quite a nice investment.  Under the right conditions, that could reap a handsome prof...and it's gone.



Jeez Louise, the Ukrainians have been busy!

Update on that Himars strike in Donetsk:  Russia reports 3 dead, 8 wounded.  (iirc, the strike killed at least two officers)

Earlier, Russian propagandists said no one was hurt.  If you listen to a Russian propagandist and shake an eight ball, the eight ball gets it right more often.

Ukraine hits Crimea again, eliminates a commander

Ukraine blows up 10 Russian vehicles in a single engagement

And these weren't low value targets like chinese golf carts or some tool shed on wheels, these were 5 BMPs and 5 tanks, at least one of which was a T-90.

And it's not just the vehicles buurning, there was recent footage of a dozen or two russian troops entering a dilapitated building near the front while under artillery fire.  While they sheltered, a drone quickly flew through an empty window and blew the place sky-high.  Ceiling and walls obliterated.  Very unlikely anyone walked away drom that.

Also, one very unlucky Russian attempted to throw a gasoline/petrol cannister he had on him against a kamakaze drone.  It went down pretty much like how you'd think that would go down.  Let's just say that Ukraine won't need to send a second drone.

Oh, and a single Ukrainian defender who was surrounded by 4 Russians successfully defended his hole - bagging two himself and holding the other two at bay until Ukrainian reinforcements bagged the other two.  Just in time, too.  One Russian attacker had an excellent prone and partially concealed stance and surely would've shot the Ukrainian if he were to so much as stick his head out.  Unfortunately for the Russians, a different Ukrainian unit flanked and quickly eliminated both of them.  Ain't that a kick in the head.

And last but not least, most flammable oblast two years running - Belgorod - was accidentally bombed again by Russian aerial bombs.  No joke, it'd be too easy.


Putin loses whopping 1740 troops in one day

Highest one-day loss since the start of the war.

And 31 tanks, which is also extremely high.

Early reports had the Russians advancing with little/no resistance in some places, but obviously, you don't get these sorts of numbers without fierce resistance.  The Ukrainians said they lured Russian units into brutal ambushes and just repeated the process with the next wave, and that would seem to be exactly correct.

The Russian forces advancing on Kharkiv have a little marking on their vehicles - a diamond shape with an X through it.  To the Ukrainians, it must look like a bullseye 🎯


Estonia "seriously considering" sending troops to Ukraine

Before anyone panics, it's just to western Ukraine and in non-combat roles like medical care and logistics, freeing up a bunch of Ukrainian soldiers to focus on the frontlines.

The Estonian government very recently commented on this, saying that they haven't made any decision and they're just keeping all options on the table.  I think these sorts of statements are mostly meant to introduce FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) into Russian decision-making, casting Putin's war in a more uncertain and tenuous light to both Putin and the Russian people.

Rather than expecting the West to stay out of it and either rapidly or slowly taking Ukraine, Russians increasingly have to worry about Western interference and the tide of the war turning against them.  As such, they may be less and less likely to view the war favorably and may seek an early end whenever it before clear that they're no longer going to take Ukraine (probably requiring Russia to take no new territory for months or to lose large portions of what they've taken, especially Crimea)


Get a Load of the New Guy: Putin's pick pontificates priorities

QuoteBelousov, an economist whom President Vladimir Putin unexpectedly nominated on Sunday to replace Sergei Shoigu, said the military sector needed more efficiency and innovation in order to achieve its goals.
Heh, that ship has already sailed and joined the Moskva, but you're welcome to try.

Quote"The key task, of course, remains achieving victory. Ensuring the achievement of the military-political goals of the special military operation, set by the president. At the same time - I want to specifically emphasise this - with minimal human losses,"
1400+ casualties today.  Already the bloodiest war Russia's ever fought since WWII.  Losses largely driven by Putin's desire to exchange any amount of troops for any amount of territory.  I don't expect Putin to change his mind on that anytime soon.  If Russia were down to its last 10 men, I expect Putin to send them all on a suicidal charge and just tell the women to have more babies.

QuoteBelousov presented himself as a man of integrity, telling parliamentarians: "I have always been, and will be, guided by the reinforced concrete principle 'You can make mistakes (but) you can't lie'."

If he weren't a diehard Putin loyalist - and chosen precisely for that reason, not acumen - I would expect him to "accidentally" fall out a window.


You know those blyatmobiles/turtle tanks? (Russian tanks with an entire garage welded onto them, essentially sacrificing everything for just a little bit more defense)

Well, at least one of them got destroyed by kamikaze drones.  One to disable, another to brew up.  So it looks like they're not so tough after all.


ISW: Russian offensive slows

The Russians appear to be trying to create a buffer zone between Kharkiv and the Russian border in an effort to protect Russian troops and supplies from getting blasted on the way to the war.

QuoteSeveral Ukrainian military officials reported on May 14 that they believe the situation in Kharkiv region is slowly stabilizing.  The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian forces have begun to "clear" Vovchansk by targeting visible Russian assault groups in the settlement.
That village is pretty much right on the border with Russia.  If they can't hold onto that...

QuoteSeveral Russian and Ukrainian sources also reported that Russian forces are using new tactics in this direction — using smaller assault groups of no more than five people to penetrate Ukrainian positions before merging with other small assault groups to unite into a larger strike group.

QuoteHowever, the use of small assault groups may be contributing to higher Russian manpower and materiel losses and slowing the overall pace of the Russian offensive in this direction, ISW said.
Good tactic, in theory.  Apparently doesn't work all that well.

QuoteOne Russian military commentator, who previously served as a "Storm-Z" unit instructor, complained that footage of small Russian assault groups is indicative of poor training and preparation, not an effective new tactic.
Might not even be an intentional tactic, just something that happens when troops dismount and scatter and just sort of wander around for a while before finding their comrades again.