Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Turkey wants a refund for its S-400s from Russia

Before the pitchforks come out, let me explain something:

Türkiye wants to return the S-400 systems to Russia in order to put an end to a deal that prevents the country from purchasing US-made F-35 fighter jets.

NATO believes that Russia could gain access to important intelligence if Türkiye were to operate the S-400s alongside the F-35. Giving up the Russian systems would provide Ankara with enormous "trust capital" among Alliance partners, as it is often accused of being too close to Russia.

Abandoning the S-400s, which the United States has long demanded, could significantly improve relations with Washington. Türkiye could get rid of sanctions against its defense industry and gain access to advanced US fighter jets.

That said...

At the same time, Ankara does not simply want to return the systems. It is demanding that Russia compensate the billions of dollars spent on acquiring the S-400s. One option could be a significant discount on imported oil and natural gas from Russia.

Yikes.  Even with oil prices being super low right now, yikes.  That's both money and AA in Putin's pocket in that scenario.  Just thinking about doing that really rubs me the wrong way.

I understand Erdogan's desire to ditch the S-400.  That makes perfect sense.  As does wanting payment in return.  Ukraine desperately needs air defense, as does Russia.  But it's pretty obvious that they'd be put to much better use defending civilians in Ukraine than defending Putin in Russia.  Ukraine can pay for them as well and that payment won't find its way back to NATO airspace in the form of missiles or drones.  And although Ukraine doesn't currently use any S-400 systems, they know their way around S-200s and S-300s, so the learning curve will be very short.  At any rate, Putin doesn't need any more equipment or funding for his war machine, much less from a NATO country.  I know, I know, other NATO countries buy Russian oil.  Yeah, and that's also awful.

I sincerely hope Erdogan becomes convinced to sell the AA to some other country than Russia.

Also, does Russia even have several billion usd in cash at its disposal?  They've been forced to start selling their gold reserve to keep Putin's war going.  The instant they run out...

[Hydra009]

Ukraine has certainly had a pretty eventful few days.

Ukraine regained 16 square kilometers near Pokrovsk

I saw footage from one of the Russians there.  He says only a few of his unit are left and there are so many drones that it's difficult to do anything.  He's planning on leaving with what's left of his unit, which is a good move.

Ukraine hit a Russian Mig-31 aircraft, Pantsir AA, and radars in Crimea

Ukraine destroys two s-400 launchers on the move in Belgorod

Ukraine hit a Russian oil tanker near Rostov in Russia (NE portion of Sea of Azov)

It has reportedly started sinking

The Russian mayor confirmed that a ship was hit but appears to be a little confused about what type of ship it was.  Ukraine says oil tanker, Russia says cargo ship (oil is a type of cargo, so that might not technically be a lie)  We'll see later on.  Oil spills are pretty easy to spot by satellite.

(edit: the ship in question is the Valery Gorchakov, which was originally built in Romania as a river bulk carrier, but in 2004 was converted into an oil tanker)

Speaking of oil in the water, there is new satellite footage of the port of Novorossiysk

Vantor Satellite imagery confirms the aftermath of Ukraine's underwater drone strike on a Russian Improved Kilo‑class submarine at the Novorossiysk naval base. Imagery shows the explosion occurred near the stern and caused visible damage to the pier, with the targeted sub still moored but possibly sitting lower in the water, damage below the surface isn't fully visible yet.

Russian media circulated carefully curated photos of the submarine, showing its undamaged front section while the damaged - presumably heavily damaged - stern section remains suspiciously out of frame.  The sub is also moored at the dock rather than floating freely, which it should be able to easily do if Russian media reports are accurate.  Imho, it's much more heavily damaged than Russian media admits.  Might even be a total loss.

European leaders agree to 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine over the next two years

European Union leaders have decided to provide a massive interest-free loan to Ukraine to meet its military and economic needs for the next two years, after failing to agree on using frozen Russian assets, diplomats said in the early hours of Friday.

"We have a deal. Decision to provide €90bn ($106bn) of support to Ukraine for 2026-27 approved. We committed, we delivered," EU Council president Antonio Costa said in a post on social media.

Not exactly what I was hoping for, apparently Belgium is afraid of touching the frozen Russian assets, unfortunately.  Still, this is a huge boost for Ukraine.  Hopefully eventually they'll do the right thing with the frozen Russian assets, which is to use it to save lives.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine hits Russian shadow fleet oil tanker in the Mediterranean, Putin vows revenge  (this hit was with drone-dropped munitions, not naval drones)

Speaking at an annual year-end press conference in Moscow, Vladimir Putin vowed to retaliate.

"Another of our tankers in the Mediterranean has been attacked," the Russian president said. But he claimed it would not have the desired effect of disrupting supplies, adding "in the end, [it] will only create an additional threat."

"A response from our country will follow."

It's always funny to me when they claim the attack wasn't successful and that they'll have their revenge.  What are you avenging, then?  And Russia is already avenging as best it can.  If it avenges any harder, its current newborn babes will have to avenge their fathers and older brothers (a mix of both in some families, I suspect).  I love that Putin made disrespecting the Russian military illegal, it makes it so much more fun in addition to pointing out an exposed nerve.

[Hydra009]

Russia selling crude oil at $35 usd/barrel

Data from the Finance Ministry showed that oil and gas revenues fell 34% year-on-year in November, and were down 21% cumulatively over the first 11 months of 2025.

Reuters calculations suggest December tax receipts from oil and gas could drop to 410 billion rubles ($5.1 billion), the lowest since August 2020 and 49% below December 2024 levels.

The 2025 federal budget was initially drafted assuming a $69 per barrel oil price, targeting 10.94 trillion rubles ($136 billion) in tax revenues from oil and gas companies.

The forecast was cut mid-year to 8.65 trillion rubles ($107 billion) and an assumed oil price of $58.

Even against the downgraded plan, the budget may fall short by around 300 billion rubles ($3.7 billion), analysts at Gazprombank estimate.

Including the federal budget, regional budgets and social funds, Russia's total fiscal deficit could reach 8 trillion rubles ($100 billion), or 4% of GDP, the highest since 2020, economist Viktor Tunev said.

The executive summary version is that Russia is making less and less money from crude oil to the point that it's strangling Russia's economy.  Federal budgets are based on oil prices and the projections have consistently assumed a higher oil price than reality.  And that's without even factoring in Russia's ballooning war budget, which is around 40% of the federal budget iirc.  This means that budgets are shot across the board, Russia will reap huge deficits, which spells lots of trouble for Putin personally.  There's only so long that the oligarchs will tolerate this.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine hits two Russian Su-27 jets in Crimea airbase

Belbek airbase, and yes, they hit it again.  Three days ago, Ukraine destroyed a Mig-31, three radars, and a Pantsir air defense at the same airbase.  Unexpected by the Russian brass, an airbase with less air defense become more vulnerable to attacks from the air.  And the cherry on top is that one of these Su-27s was refueled and armed to the gills, ready for takeoff.  Except takeoff never happened and all those bombs just added to the explosion.  :)

I swear, these guys make the dumbest possible decisions.  "Our base was under attack and weakened, glad that'll never happen again, welp, better load up a couple jets for another mission.  I hope nothing bad happens to them while our defenses are down and we're in a vulnerable state."  Total pants-on-head decision-making.

Since apparently, the Russians don't stop launching combat sorties even after the jets are repeatedly destroyed on the apron, the Ukrainians also hit the control tower.  Just a little hint to knock it off.

[Hydra009]

Firestarter, twisted firestarter: Pro-Ukrainian partisans burn relay cabinets at key Russian railway

Atesh operatives set fire at a railway hub in Bataysk, in Russia's Rostov Oblast, which Russian troops use to supply their forces in occupied parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk oblasts, as well as Crimea.

"As a result of the arson, the work of the main logistics hub, through which the occupation forces are supplied in all southern directions, was disrupted," the group wrote on Telegram.

[Hydra009]

Russian tanks outfitted with improvised shipping container armor

Because why not.  I gotta hand it to them, this costs basically nothing (and it's worth the price).  The "armor" is I guess decent enough to buy them an extra couple of seconds, but there's just one tiny little design flaw:

The rear of the containers appears largely unmodified. On the sides, improvised openings for the exhaust system are visible, likely to prevent the buildup of exhaust gases inside the structure.

Ukrainian drone operators right now:

[Hydra009]

Russian general dies in mysterious car explosion in Moscow

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Man, I wish they'd have slow news days over there.  So little to cover, so much time.  Wait, strike that, reverse it.

Partisans set two Russian planes ablaze

This happened in Russia near the city of Lipetsk, about 340km from Ukraine.  It still boggles my mind that security is so lax, especially after experiencing this sort of thing happened on multiple occasions throughout the war.

The operation succeeded after a careful study of patrol routes and guard schedules, which enabled the operative to slip into the military facility, attack Russian fighter jets in the hangar, and exit the airfield undetected.

This is literally a Metal Gear Solid mission.  And they did it all undetected, so these operatives can do future attacks.  Russia better watch out.

In addition to the dead Russian General, there's also a dead Russian Brigade leader.  He was shot at his home in occupied Sevastopol.  4 cars entered his neighborhood, masked men with guns exited the vehicles, they opened fire.  6 hours later, an ambulance arrived (deliberate tardiness or normal tardiness?), he was pronounced dead.

Russia has been trying to encourage Russians to move to Ukraine, especially Crimea, but making it a rancid den where murders happen in broad daylight is not exactly a strong selling point.

Ukraine hits Shahed launch site in Donetsk

They hit the right spot and there's a fire afterwards, but we don't yet know the extent of the damage.

Ukraine hit a oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai (just east of Crimea)

The drone strike set off a huge fire which additionally damaged two berths and two ships.

Ukraine hit a petrochemical plant

This happened in Stavropol Krai, just east of Kasnodar Krai.  Ukraine says the plant produces drone components.

And finally (whew!) the frontline:

A Russian cavalry assault was repelled.  You heard that right, on horseback.  Bronze-age level technological sophistication.  Terrible that morally blameless animals suffer and die in Putin's war efforts.  :'(

From what little I've been able to stomach, the other Russian meat assaults do not go well.  A Ukrainian drone snapped a "last moment" picture of a Russian soldier in a ditch surrounded by dead Russians soldiers.  Around 10-12 in total.  Yikes.

I have no idea why they haven't figured out yet that signing up for Putin's war is a death sentence.  If the depleted equipment and increasingly desperate tactics don't serve as an adequate warning, I don't know what will.  It doesn't matter how much they offer recruits because they won't be able to spend it and it's far from certain that the family will get anything at all.  Just jumping in the Ukrainian woodchipper.

And I'm not entirely sure why Putin himself keeps this up, knowing that he's turning Russian taxpayers into fertilizer.  I suppose he thinks he's a deadman if he stops.  He might be right about that, but it seems like there's more to it than that.  In his latest speech, at times he dropped the veil of calm to unleash fiery threats and it's briefly possible to see his true composure - a hateful little man, vicious and cruel, possessed of a Napoleon complex and seeking respect from the West and other powers.  His tools are military, money, disinfo networks, and oil.  As we have seen, he has used the tools he was given exactly how someone of his temperament would use them.  And even though the world is rattled, he will never fully win the respect he craves and his tools are steadily being shattered in the attempt.  The world is rattled today, but it will be at peace again - likely at his funeral.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Another explosion in Moscow, kills 2 suspected of torturing PoWs

According to the HUR sources, the officers were involved in the systematic torture of Ukrainian POWs, practices that violate the Geneva Conventions and the laws and customs of war.

The intelligence sources said the attack took place at around 1 a.m., when a local resident approached a police car parked near a police station and threw an improvised explosive device through the vehicle's window. The blast killed two officers inside the car and injured two more.

The attacker acted "in protest against the Kremlin's aggressive policy," according to the HUR sources. Russian authorities have not confirmed this claim.

Yeah, I bet they haven't.

[Hydra009]

I hope everyone had a good Christmas.  Unfortunately, the war continued in the meantime, despite calls for a Christmas truce.

This raises the question: who believes that Putin will make peace for a month or a year or forever when he won't make peace for a day?  Boggles my mind that some people believe that he's a peaceful guy when he shows the world that he's not every single day.  How can peace be made?  When Putin is gone or the invaders are forcibly removed, whichever comes first.  Either way, Ukraine must be defended.

Russia still attacks, though Russian forces have degraded significantly.

I heard about the latest cavalry assault at work and I was delighted that the horses were intelligent enough to throw their barbarian riders off and leave them to their fate.  Horses are more intelligent than people in some instances.  And live longer, happier lives in some instances.

About a week ago, Russia sunk barges in the Novorossiysk Bay, essentially barricading the Black Sea Fleet Remnants inside - rendering them unable to patrol, unfortunately they can still fire Kalibur long-range missiles at Ukraine.  But on the bright side, Ukraine knows exactly where to strike and Russian ships are unable to flee.  And once they're gone, that's it.

But it's not all good news, there are bad developments as well.

Russia took the town of Siversk.  Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn't have the manpower or resources to match Russia blow for blow and therefore has to cede some ground sometimes to the Russians in order to preserve their own manpower.  Russia continues to pay a heavy price for every inch, and in an attritional war like this, victory or defeat is determined by who better preserves their military resources, not who has this or that patch of ground.

Russian forces captured a Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole

What's worse, the hasty evacuation means that the Russians got their hands on Ukrainian laptops and an unlocked cell phone, so it's possible that they have access to some tactical information as well as the lost territory.  Battles are still ongoing in that area and the Ukrainian forces there report that it is a very difficult situation.

And finally, some positive news to complete the war news sandwich: Ukraine once again struck AA in Crimea

Ukraine destroyed a S-300 launcher, a radar, a command and control vehicle for a Buk AA, and another radar, also for a Buk AA.

[Hydra009]

...and now they're trapped.