Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Melitopol again

The exiled mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said a Russian base near an airfield was struck. Russian-installed occupation authorities in Melitopol said air defenses shot down six missiles fired by U.S.-supplied M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System or Himars. Western military analysts have said that Himars rockets probably can't be intercepted by Russian systems.

Russia says that they shot down HIMARS rockets.  They also say that Putin is a man of peace.

The timing and target of Kyiv's anticipated military push is closely guarded, but analysts say a thrust south to Melitopol makes strategic sense because it could break through Russia's land bridge and restore Ukraine's access to the Azov Sea.

It's the obvious choice.  I'd be shocked if the main thrust of the upcoming counterattack were in any other direction.

After months of grueling combat in and around Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin—the leader of the Russian paramilitary Wagner group that is spearheading the assault—said earlier this week that he had raised a Russian flag near the strategic town's city hall. Ukrainian forces are still present in the western part of the city, he said.

The very definition of premature victory.  And celebrated there because he knows full well that he's not getting to the western part of the city.

Russian forces are facing several issues, including ammunition supply, protecting their flanks and organizing their command structure.

I read about this earlier.  Apparently, the Russian forces near Bakhmut are having problems with 1) having enough manpower 2) having enough ammo 3) having competent leadership.

Now, I know I don't know much about military matters, but I'm reasonably sure that troops, ammo, and leadership are like 90% of what a military is.  If you're lacking one, you're in trouble.  If you're lacking two, you're pretty much up shit creek.  If you're lacking three, you should just surrender immediately because it's hopeless.

Russia's defense minister has said the city is an important defensive hub for Ukraine, and that capturing it would allow Russian forces to continue advancing in the broader eastern region of Donbas

At this point, it holds more symbolic value than strategic value.  And it would certainly make for a catchy headline.  And yes, wrapping things up would free up what forces they have left for more incursions.  But it is a loooong way from Bakhmut to Kyiv and the daily territory changes read like this: today, the enemy took a shed, yesterday they took a gas station, the day before that, they took part of one street.  Going from Bakhmut to anywhere important would be a nightmare.

Without providing evidence, the governor, Alexander Bogomaz, said on Telegram

No evidence + Russian source = automatic BS

[Hydra009]

Ukraine announces a friendly competition to make a drone that could theoretically make it to the Red Square and land there


No reason, just curious.  Nothing to worry about at all.  Wink wink.

[Unbeliever]

I just read in my news feed (from Business Insider) that some Mig-29s, en route to Ukraine, were sabotaged. Only the parts that were worked on by the Russians were fucked with.
 Have y'all heard about that? I don't know how to post it here from there, using my phone.
🤔

[Hydra009]

Bad news today :(



Some of the Mig-29s Slovakia donated to Ukraine have malfunctions, possibly due to Russian technicians.  We don't necessarily know if it was intentional or not, but nevertheless "mistakes kept appearing in places only they had access to"

[Hydra009]

Russia's attempts to bombard the power grid to trigger blackouts in order to force peace has failed.

Suffering among the general populace did not translate into a desire to capitulate to Russian denands nor displeasure with Zelenskyy.

Moreover, Ukrainian infrastructure proved to be incredibly resilient - due to both heroic efforts by Ukrainian power workers and an influx of replacement parts and portable generators from the international community.  Often, power was restored mere days after the terrorist bombings occured (these are terrorist attacks by the textbook definition of the word - an intentional attack on civilian population in order to sow terror and fear in pursuit of a political goal)

[Hydra009]

30 Ukrainian kids abducted by Russians return home

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Putin's Wagner mercenaries tried to purchase weapons from Turkey

Unsuccessfully, it appears, but still very worrisome.  It would definitely be strange for a group supposedly at war with NATO to buy arms from a NATO member.

Also, the President of Mali reportedly was willing to buy arms from Turkey on Wagner's behalf, like a drunkard's friend buying whiskey from the bartender and then sliding it to his friend after his friend had been cut off.  Mali better not ask for international aid in the near future.

[Hydra009]

Russia loses elections for three UN committees

Commission on the Status of Women headed by Romania

UNICEF -> Estonia

Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice -> Armenia and the Czech Republic

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Egypt planned to secretly provide Russia with munitions

President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi in February planned to produce 40,000 rockets for Russia and instructed officials to keep production and shipment secret 'to avoid problems with the West'

Suffice it to say the secret part didn't work out so well, and now there are problems with the West.  Also happens to be a major recipient of US aid...

[SGOS]

Egypt planned to secretly provide Russia with munitions
Suffice it to say the secret part didn't work out so well, and now there are problems with the West.  Also happens to be a major recipient of US aid...

I'm not sure why Egypt would want to help Russia

[Hydra009]

Who knows.  Though I have noticed that countries which favor authoritarianism over democracy in their own politics tend to at least tacitly support Russia (an authoritarian regime) over Ukraine (a democracy).  Strong democracies strongly favor Ukraine, weak democracies weakly favor Ukraine, etc.

As such, Ukraine serves as a litmus test for attitudes towards democracy generally and a flashpoint in the larger struggle between democratic norms and authoritarianism.

[PopeyesPappy]

I'm not sure why Egypt would want to help Russia

Kickbacks to government officials.

[Hydra009]

GRU officer defects to Ukraine

He's just finishing up forming a battalion of Siberian volunteers to fight for Ukraine against Muscovite invaders.