Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Breaking news: Russia uses chemical weapons in Ukraine, says US government

So let's take a look at the timeline:

In March 2022, Biden warned Russia that it would pay a severe price if it used chemical weapons in Ukraine (kind of vague, but good message)

In April 2002, Ukraine accused Russia of using chemical weapons in Mariupol.  US "deeply concerned".  UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said officials were working to "urgently" investigate, and you know her, she never leaves anything unfinished.

In December 2022, Ukraine again accused Russia of using chemical weapons

In December 2023, Ukraine says that it has 465 documented cases of Russia using chemical weapons

In May 2024, the US finally officially accuses Russia of using chemical weapons.  Don't get me wrong, it's a good development, but it's just a tiny bit late to the party.

[Hydra009]

In Russian territory close to the border, Ukraine destroyed a Buk anti-air system.  The ammo exploded.  They attempted to put out the fire with a fire hose, but it's a bit like throwing a pitcher of water on a house fire.  You can do it and it's technically helpful, but the end result is not in doubt.

This happened just a couple days after they destroyed two other Buk anti-air systems in the same general area.  The first one was initially immobilized but not destroyed so a second one was sent in to rescue it.  Cue footage of both of them exploding.

There was also dramatic footage of a russian tank getting flambéd.  While the russian tank was attempting to fire, it was hit on the side by two shells in quick succession.  The weakened armor allowed the second shot to hit something flammable, because great plumes of flame gushed straight up, igniting the cope cage while the tank rapidly accelerated before coming to a stop.  They're definitely going to have to call their insurance guy to see if that's covered.

[Hydra009]

[ferdmonger]

Ukraine hits Russian troops with ATACMS (cluster munition variant)

Once again, I initially thought this was old news but it turns out this is a brand new story, it's just very similar to something that happened a couple months ago.  So similar that it feels like a repeat.  (That one was a himars strike in Kherson region, but this one is an ATACMS strike in luhansk region, so they're not the same thing)

The first ATACMS missile appears to have been a dud, but the remaining ones are pretty much an enlarged version of Power Word: Swiss Cheese.  Not the kind of thing you can just walk off.

That is one nasty munition.  Screw the money.  Go home.

[Hydra009]

One again, I'd like to draw up my analogy of your neighbor shooting at you.  It doesn't much matter if he's shooting at you from his property or your property, you must defend yourself either way.  Expecting restraint in such a situation is unrealistic.

Additionally, Denys is right that Putin will continue this war so long as Ukraine is the main victim.

Even though Putin is a dictator, he does to some extent rely on his people's support.  Russians will support the war as long as they personally do not sacrifice.  And while sanctions are bad and economic problems are bad and border raids are bad and even St Petersburg and Moscow have had minor losses so far, the war has not particularly hit home with many Russians, particularly the ones in St Petersburg and Moscow.  If the war is more painful for the average Russian, especially the average Russian oligarch, cracks may form in Putin's support.  Otherwise, Putin will recruit from the prisons, the penal colonies, the poorest regions of Russia, and the most gullible and desperate places in the world and throw them at Kyiv until successful or until he runs out, which could take a long time and mound a monstrous deathtoll, and not just Russians among them.  Western leaders should be mindful of this.

[Hydra009]

US to provide Seekers to Ukraine to allow JDAMS to resist jamming

Russia has a lot of electronic warfare in Ukraine right now and the weapon most affected by it are the JDAMS.  When Ukraine gets F-16s, they're going to want to fire off a lot of JDAMS and other weapons, so they need to clear the battlefield of Russian jammers.

The plan is to upgrade these JDAMS to hit whatever is trying to jam them.  Counter the counter, so to speak.

So much of what's going on in Ukraine is a game of adaption and counter-adaption.  It's important for Ukraine to not only have good weapons in large numbers, but also adapt to stay effective.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine shoots down Russian su-25 jet

[Hydra009]

China plans to open a drone plant in Russia

Officially, they're neutral.  Unofficially, they're a staunch ally of Russia.  And if Putin is successful, they will without a doubt embark on a similar land-grab.

[Hydra009]

Russia blames Baltic countries for severing ties

Wow, that's so crazy!  Russia didn't do anything and then out of nowhere, lots of countries suddenly sever diplomatic ties for absolutely no reason.  Incredible!

Unrelated news: Russia threatens to invade and/or nuke half a dozen countries today and for some strange reason, commercial airliners' GPS is getting jammed near the Baltic sea and the jammer is located near St Petersburg.

[Hydra009]

So hard to find good help these days, smh.

This is why almost everyone has a professional military.  Because the conscription system is busted as hell.  No one is vetted, everyone is given guns.  If Private Conscriptovich isn't 100% loyal to the motherland (a difficult ask in a kleptocracy, an even more difficult ask when you're "recruiting" Ukrainians), this can happen easily.  I'm just surprised this doesn't happen more often.

[Hydra009]

Russia bombs itself...again

I once again thought this was old news due to the headline and the definitely old footage of the Il-76 crash that happened on Jan 24th.  But nope, this just happened.  Man, they love making the same mistake twice or thrice or quad...however many times they've done this.

Their planes launch bombs - usually from near the Caspian Sea, sometimes from some border region - and anything and everything between the launch site and the target can potentially be hit whenever the missile has any sort of malfunction.  That's rolling the dice with a bunch of Russian cities and towns.

They've been astoundingly lucky that no one's been killed yet - a normally busy street in Belgorod city hit during the night when there was basically no traffic and so a bomb crater 40 meters wide only wounded 3 people and killed no one - or that Russian village hit by a Russian bomb that tore through 9 houses and I guess everyone was outside or something because no one died and only 4 people received minor injuries.  How miraculous!

[Hydra009]

Kim Jong Zero: Putin orders nuclear drills in retaliation for alleged "provocative statements and threats" by Western officials

I swear, Putin must be the most thin-skinned dictator on the planet.  He barks loudest to compensate for being a very small, frail man.

The tea this time is from France suggesting stationing troops in Ukraine (Macron makes such statements to introduce uncertainty and doubt in Putin's calculations - so far Putin has been betting that he can take whatever he wants with no direct opposition and minimal indirect opposition.  Such statements sow doubt in his inevitable victory) and the UK giving Ukraine the go-ahead to defend itself properly by striking back at Russian military targets already engaged in hostilities against Ukraine (Putin is again banking on his ability to bomb others but not be bombed in response).

And in true spoiled brat fashion, Putin is throwing a tantrum in an attempt to sow fear to get his way.  His war machine is fueled by fear and appeasement as much as it is with oil money.

[ferdmonger]

Russia blames Baltic countries for severing ties

Wow, that's so crazy!  Russia didn't do anything and then out of nowhere, lots of countries suddenly sever diplomatic ties for absolutely no reason.  Incredible!

Unrelated news: Russia threatens to invade and/or nuke half a dozen countries today and for some strange reason, commercial airliners' GPS is getting jammed near the Baltic sea and the jammer is located near St Petersburg.

Stop with the nonsense and win your three day special operation already.

Vlad's nuke threats have all the veracity of the boy who cried wolf. 

[Hydra009]

Russia loses Su-34 jet

Both pilots dead.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Zelenskyy

I read that they were planning something like this on Telegram several days beforehand, so I'm guessing that the element of surprise may have been lost.

IIRC, after several failed attempts at assassinating Zelenskyy early in the war, Russia declared that they were no longer trying to kill him, which was a hell of a statement since it admitted the earlier unsuccessful attempts.  It was almost certainly a lie to try to get him to lower his guard, but then again brazen and obvious lying is a stable of Putin's regime.