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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

#3315
Ukraine hits Kerch shipyard with Storm Shadow, hits Russian missile ship

Black Sea fleet getting blacker by the day.

Moscow of course said there were no casualties.  In fact, they allegedly "shot down" 14 of 15 cruise missiles and only the one hit the ship.  And if you believe that, you're probably waiting on pins and needles for JFK junior (who is dead) to restore Trump's Presidency.

Of course, the hope is that the Russian ship is either destroyed outright or so badly damaged that it can no longer fire Kalibur cruise missiles at Ukraine, but we don't know.  All we really have to go off of is Ukraine saying they hit the shipyard and some shaky cam footage, allegedly of that same shipyard and taken today, where something did explode, but it's still unclear what was damaged.

But the best case scenario is that we can scratch off one cruise missile ship and with excellent timing, since Ukraine expects a winter bombardment of its electrical infrastructure similar to last year.

Unbeliever

I think JFK Jr. Is only mostly dead. 🤔
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Ukraine confirms that the missile ship was destroyed

A fairly modern one (by Russian standards) too. 



The shipyard hit was the Zalyv Shipyard, on the far eastern side of Crimea, just south of Kerch.  The Russian Black Sea Fleet Remnants were relocated from Sevastopol, the far western side of Crimea, to Feodosia, a south-eastern part of Crimea.  The Zalyv Shipyard and Kerch aren't very far east of that.

The Remnants' positioning far from Odesa and other Ukrainian territory but close to Russian repair facilities reflects a defensive stance undertaken due to frequent attacks and damage from Ukrainian drones and missiles near Sevastopol.  Although the Remnants remain afloat - for now - they certainly no longer control the sea.

Unbeliever

So, is Putin dead or not? It's all very confusing. I just read that his body double has a bad case of the flu.
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Quote from: Unbeliever on November 05, 2023, 06:31:59 PMSo, is Putin dead or not? It's all very confusing. I just read that his body double has a bad case of the flu.
'fraid not.  Trust me, you'll know when it happens because there will be an immediate power struggle in Moscow.

Also, spontaneous celebrations throughout eastern Europe and potentially free borscht at a few places here in the States, as is tradition.  And finally, there's a high chance that I'll post the meme of Zelenskyy taking a selfie with Putin's lifeless body and the video of the Allied Victory cutscene from Red Alert 1.  I don't see anyone here, either.  *shrugs*

Unbeliever

I read that Zelensky invited The Donald to Ukraine to show him that he couldn't put an end to the conflict. He said he'd only need 24 minutes to show the Chump the error of his big mouth.
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Russia is stockpiling missiles to use when temperatures drop belowe freezing, targetting Ukrainian electricty grids - an exact repeat of their last strategy.

Ukraine is stockpiling drones to launch a massive drone attack on known Russian positions right as they settle in for the winter.  We'll see who's strategy works better.

The Russian tactic of stockpiling missiles does present certain opportunities for Ukraine...like, oh I dunno, blowing up the missiles while they're sitting around in stockpiles.

In unrelated news, an ammo dump just blew up in Donetsk.

Hydra009

#3322
Photos have surfaced of the allegedly damaged Russian missile ship Askold

Damaged is quite the understatement!  A large chunk of it has been turned to slag.  It's a wonder that it's still afloat.  Destroyed.  Total loss.

A "glorious" career bombarding Ukrainian apartment buildings cut tragically short.  Such a shame.

Edit - video has emerged of the impact.  Direct hit.  It's definitely donezo.

Hydra009

Quote from: Unbeliever on November 06, 2023, 12:05:24 AMI read that Zelensky invited The Donald to Ukraine to show him that he couldn't put an end to the conflict. He said he'd only need 24 minutes to show the Chump the error of his big mouth.
Surprise surprise, Captain Bone Spurs chickened out, citing "conflict of interest".  He sure has a lot of those lately.  He should cancel his presidential bid for the same reason.

Hydra009

Disconnected: Ukraine destroys Russian drone operator training building

Russian propagandists advertised the location of the building, even going so far as to hang a Russian flag and identifying plaque on it.

QuoteAlthough efforts were made to blur the video, the view of the building across the street remained partially visible.

Hydra009


Hydra009

Russian telegram is increasingly worried about the situation south of the Dniper river.

What we know for sure:
* The Ukrainians control multiple areas along the far side of the river
* They continue to control them, Russian efforts to retake this territory have been unsuccessful

Ukrainian sources are pretty tight-lipped about it, so I'll have to rely on the unreliable narrator that is Russian telegram posts.

The gist of it is that they have conquered "historically Russian lands" (a surprisingly vague term that I wish the Mongols would adopt just to troll them) at great cost and are very bitter - they use that term often - bitter that the Ukrainians have taken some of it back and they're powerless to push them out.

The author says that things are very bad at the frontline and claims/imagines that there are plenty of vehicles in reserve that would turn the tide, but aren't utilized for some unknown reason.  He then claims that an unknown Russian - presumably bitter - leaked the coordinates of their general, who managed to survive a ukrainian attack.

He closes by emphatically asserting that Russian forces will triumph over "internal enemies" in addition to the "Ukrainofascists" and "their Western masters".  That's what, *just* most of the G20?!  Should be no problem for a country that can barely hold onto the Donbass and Crimea with 300k+ losses.  Should be no problem to march on Berlin and Madrid, lol.

(I joke, but they seriously internalize this sort of propaganda and genuinely think they're fighting NATO or something.  Evidently, someone in the Kremlin decided that it'd be embarrassing to lose to Ukriane, so they aren't.  All ego.)

Hydra009

#3327
It has been interesting day in Ukraine.

Ukraine has met enough of EU criteria that it has been recommended to begin ascension talks with the EU.

I know the phrasing makes this seem like no big deal but this is HUGE!  Ukraine is making significant progress toward EU membership, nearly done with the critical first few steps of applying for membership (no easy feat, considering hellbent Russian opposition, a shadow war that began long before Russian invasion) and fending off Russian invasion while simultaneously carrying out difficult reforms to how the country operates so that Ukraine's policies are more in line with EU member states.

Obviously, this won't happen tomorrow and will likely take several years at the least to complete the process and be formally invited to the EU, but it's looking increasingly likely that that's ultimately what's going to happen, Orban notwithstanding.

In addition to Ukraine, Moldova is also making progress towards EU membership.  And Georgia has been recommended to be a new candidate state.

It should be noted that all three have had a difficult relationship with Russia to put it mildly and EU membership is something of hedge against future Russian aggression (Moldova in particular has a not-unfounded cause for worry there) as well as to economically align themselves with countries that aren't autocratic sh&*holes and actually have something worthwhile to trade, which seems like a sound practical move.

Hydra009

#3328
Mouth of Putin Lavrov says that Russia is really upset with the West because *rolls dice* green energy

QuoteHe said Western boycotts of Russian energy in response to the war in Ukraine had "dealt a serious blow to global energy security. These steps led to the rupture of historical value chains, costly redistribution of global energy flows and rising transaction and logistics costs."
So...the West boycotts Russian crude oil, and that caused economic problems for...Russia?  Is that right?  Cause I kinda feel like that sort of thing was the whole point of the boycott.  Granted, it hasn't been amazing for Europe, either - boycotts are never a fun time - but for obvious reasons, Russia isn't a trustworthy trading partner right now or in the foreseeable future (ask Carlsburg) so divesting from a genocidal dictatorship seems like both a good moral move and good practical move.

Yanno, I think the Left/Green people in the US pitch green energy in a much less exciting way than they should.  Save the planet this, renewables that, only one planet yadda yadda yadda.  When really, they should just put out billboards of oil magnates and genocidal dictators pulling out their hair in frustration and crying like babies because their reliable steam cash of cash is starting to dry up.  I feel like that would sell the crap out of some solar panels, you feel me?

QuoteThe sanctions have severely hit Russian gas giant Gazprom, which has lost most of its European markets, and forced Russia to sharply increase sales of oil at discounted prices to countries such as China and India
The move has also forced Russia to increase the taxes that Gazprom pays for oil extraction in order to make up some of the lost revenue.

Inflation is also up in Russia, they had to hike their interest rate to 15%, and their whole economy is at risk of "overheating"