Post Funny Videos

[Cassia]

Last I heard there were potentially 36 in this galaxy alone.  Admittedly, that's a very optimistic figure.  A more conservative estimation would be a dozen or less.

And even though 36 makes it sound like the galaxy is teeming with civilizations, it's a big galaxy (space is unbelievably big) so there would be something like 17,000 light-years between each one.  A large enough distance that communication let alone travel is really, really, really hard.

But there are upwards of 2 trillion galaxies in the universe, although the Milky Way is a fairly large and metal-rich one.  Let's say that there's on average 2 intelligent civilizations per galaxy.  That's 4 trillion in the observable universe.

Or perhaps it is a universal theme that intelligence is inversely related to long term survival. Could be that the 4 trillion were (or will be) all gone-in-a-flash.

[Baruch]

Life exploits loopholes in entropy.  In the end life dies, individually and collectively.  That technology changes this, upturns the laws of physics, is typical sci fi and communist fantasy.

[Hydra009]

Or perhaps it is a universal theme that intelligence is inversely related to long term survival. Could be that the 4 trillion were (or will be) all gone-in-a-flash.

Possibly.  There's a brief period when an intelligent species has modernized to the point of radically altering its homeworld but is not yet truly spacefaring.  That's probably the most dangerous phase of development.  Who knows if any make it past that phase, but I am optimistic that some do.

[GSOgymrat]

[Hydra009]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9WBihvH_V4

Guy 1: Try this cheesecake, it has a graham cracker crust.
Guy 2: Graham cracker?  Huh, I wonder why it's called that.
Guy 1: Please don't look that up.
Guy 2: I feel like I should look that up.
Guy 1: Please don't look that up.
Guy 2: Well, it's happening.
*pause*
Guy 2: That guy had some serious stuff going on.

[Unbeliever]

I suspect that galaxies that inhabit large clusters (which is most of them) frequently have the orbits of planetary systems disrupted by close encounters with stars from colliding galaxies. I know there is very little chance of stellar collisions when galaxies collide, but near misses seem likely to me, so galaxies in clusters where collisions of galaxies are more frequent than our Milky Way may not have many planets with orbits that remain stable over the billions of years that seem to be required to evolve complex intelligent life.

The Milky Way has had few if any galactic collisions in the last 5 billion years, so Earth's orbit has remained stable long enough for us to show up.

[trdsf]

Last I heard there were potentially 36 in this galaxy alone.  Admittedly, that's a very optimistic figure.  A more conservative estimation would be a dozen or less.

And even though 36 makes it sound like the galaxy is teeming with civilizations, it's a big galaxy (space is unbelievably big) so there would be something like 17,000 light-years between each one.  A large enough distance that communication let alone travel is really, really, really hard.

But there are upwards of 2 trillion galaxies in the universe, although the Milky Way is a fairly large and metal-rich one.  Let's say that there's on average 2 intelligent civilizations per galaxy.  That's 4 trillion in the observable universe.

They make an interesting distinction -- they're not talking about raw SETI numbers, but specifically CETI -- Communicating ETIs.  In principle that would not include all ETIs in the galaxy, because some might not be communicative either because they haven't advanced far enough, or they are sufficiently advanced to have lossless communications and choose not to broadcast.

The other thing that strikes me is the 'error bar' â€" their calculation isn't just 36, its 36 (-32/+175).  Even granting that there are just way too many unknowns to have much confidence in the numbers, that's still saying it could be anywhere from one-ninth to five times their estimate.

While I agree that it is more likely than not that we share this galaxy with at least a few other SETIs (communicative or not), this research really only points out how speculative the whole endeavor is.

[Baruch]

I suspect that galaxies that inhabit large clusters (which is most of them) frequently have the orbits of planetary systems disrupted by close encounters with stars from colliding galaxies. I know there is very little chance of stellar collisions when galaxies collide, but near misses seem likely to me, so galaxies in clusters where collisions of galaxies are more frequent than our Milky Way may not have many planets with orbits that remain stable over the billions of years that seem to be required to evolve complex intelligent life.

The Milky Way has had few if any galactic collisions in the last 5 billion years, so Earth's orbit has remained stable long enough for us to show up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andromeda%E2%80%93Milky_Way_collision

It is also thought that the Sun bounces in and out of the galactic plane which would also create disruption.

[Blackleaf]

I suspect that galaxies that inhabit large clusters (which is most of them) frequently have the orbits of planetary systems disrupted by close encounters with stars from colliding galaxies. I know there is very little chance of stellar collisions when galaxies collide, but near misses seem likely to me, so galaxies in clusters where collisions of galaxies are more frequent than our Milky Way may not have many planets with orbits that remain stable over the billions of years that seem to be required to evolve complex intelligent life.

The Milky Way has had few if any galactic collisions in the last 5 billion years, so Earth's orbit has remained stable long enough for us to show up.

There's an interesting video about what could happen if a star one day has a near-miss with our planet. But it's not funny, so I'll spoiler it. lol

[spoiler]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLZJlf5rHVs[/spoiler]

[Hydra009]

The other thing that strikes me is the 'error bar' â€" their calculation isn't just 36, its 36 (-32/+175).  Even granting that there are just way too many unknowns to have much confidence in the numbers, that's still saying it could be anywhere from one-ninth to five times their estimate.

While I agree that it is more likely than not that we share this galaxy with at least a few other SETIs (communicative or not), this research really only points out how speculative the whole endeavor is.

It's one of the most speculative topics ever, but it's an incredibly interesting topic, so that's why there's so much ink spilled over it, even with the great deal of uncertainty.

All we really know for sure is:
1) We're at least 1 for 1 when it comes to intelligent life in our galaxy
2) there at least trillions of other galaxies out there

[Blackleaf]

Something actually funny that just got posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABpc_oPToQQ

[Gawdzilla Sama]

There was an Oxford study a couple of years ago that concluded that there are almost certainly no alien civilizations in the observable universe. I think that is almost certainly correct.

Not nearly enough information to make a call either way. There are an estimated 10,000,000 "earth-like" planets in the Milky Way right now.

[Unbeliever]

Yeah, but "Earth-like" only means they're small and rocky, doesn't even mean they have water, or are in habitable zones.

[Baruch]

Yeah, but "Earth-like" only means they're small and rocky, doesn't even mean they have water, or are in habitable zones.

Dems can survive in any hellish environment ;-)

[Hydra009]

Yeah, but "Earth-like" only means they're small and rocky, doesn't even mean they have water, or are in habitable zones.

And due to the limitations of our technology, we're much more likely to find "Earth-like" planets several times the size of Earth.