Death of the GOP?

[SGOS]

18 to 33 year olds are more independent and more liberal, and their older counterparts are dying out.  I always thought that age group was always more liberal than their older counterparts.  So on the surface this doesn't sound like anything new.  

However, while they tend to vote Democratic, they don't like the Democratic Party.  That may represent a shift.  Whether this spells doom for the GOP, I don't know.  Nor would I guess how this will affect the future of the US.

The determining factor for the health of middle class in the US might have more to do with whether the country heads in a more conservative direction or a more liberal direction, rather than on which party survives.

http://theweek.com/article/index/257691 ... -dying-out

A new Pew Research survey finds a demographic trend in the United States that threatens to push the Republican Party into permanent minority status unless it changes quickly.

The survey found that millennials — the generation of adults between the ages of 18 and 33 — vote heavily Democratic and have "liberal views on many political and social issues, ranging from a belief in an activist government to support for same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization."

They are also the most racially diverse generation in American history and it's a key factor in explaining their political liberalism.

But, as Pew notes, it is not the only factor: "Across a range of political and ideological measures, white millennials, while less liberal than the non-whites of their generation, are more liberal than the whites in older generations."

They are also the only generation in which self-described conservatives do not outnumber self-described liberals.

Meanwhile, the most loyal Republicans are growing older. As time marches on, their numbers are dwindling.

But Republicans do have an opening: Millennials may be more liberal, but they don't have much loyalty to the Democratic Party.

In fact, 50 percent of all millennials now describe themselves as political independents — the highest level of political disaffiliation recorded for any generation in the last quarter-century. They don't like either of the two major political parties.

Nonetheless, this generation mostly votes Democratic and has little in common with the Republican Party. Needless to say, it's a real problem for the GOP.

[AllPurposeAtheist]

Not to worry SG, you can count god to be on the side of the gop, after all the p in gop is just a upside down d. :shock:
Actually the biggest problem the gop has is a severe messaging problem.  They're going to have to get out of the entrenched right wing fundy mode, drop the abortion bullshit, the opposition to actual health care and social issues in general or yes, indeed go to minority status, but they were the minority for many years before the 80s.

[Jason Harvestdancer]

The GOP won't die.  The Democrats won't let them.  If the GOP fell an actual opposition party might replace them.

[AllPurposeAtheist]

The GOP won't die.  The Democrats won't let them.  If the GOP fell an actual opposition party might replace them.

For once we agree Jason. Every party needs their boogieman.

[stromboli]

Oh, you got it. Jesse Ventura and his Libertarian cronies are just waiting in the wings.

[The Skeletal Atheist]

The GOP is like a large, rotting corpse that refuses to believe it's dead. They won't die anytime soon.

 I suspect you're going to see two major camps rise up: one will become more and more radical as they backlash against the liberalization of society, while another is going to put on a more mainstream face and try to convince us they aren't the same gay, poor, and brown person hating party of the past. It's already happening, somewhat. You saw it in the republican reactions to the veto of the Arizona bill. Some praised the decision to veto, while others criticized Jan Brewer as "caving into activists".

[SGOS]

Turns out the Pew research on millennials was not just about the health of the GOP, as the first article suggested.  Here is the Pew report in more depth:

They [millennials] and all of their friends are on Facebook. They don't think twice about posting a selfie on Instagram. They support marijuana legalization, and they have trust issues.
You probably already recognize some, if not all, of those characteristics as hallmarks of the average millennial — the generation that is now between 18 to 33 years of age.

But how about this: the typical millennial does not have a college degree, and if they do, they also have about $27,000 in student loan debt. They don't think Social Security will be around for them, but they are nevertheless optimistic about their financial future.
That's part of the portrait that emerges from the Pew Research Center's big report on millennials, which was released on Friday.

So who is Mr. or Ms. Millennial? They are more often than not white, unmarried but hoping to tie the knot down the road. They describe themselves as politically independent, but lean Democratic. There's a good chance they voted for Obama and think Congress is doing a terrible job.
They prefer bigger government to fewer services and think the powers-that-be should be spending more money on them — but they're not so sure about Obamacare.
Their social views are progressive and have become more liberal over time. Support gay marriage? Yep. Support legal pot? You bet. In favor of legal status for undocumented immigrants? Check.

They believe in God — at least they think they do. But don't call them religious. Don't call them an environmentalist, either, and flip a coin before labeling them a patriot.
They have never known life without the Internet and they have 250 friends on Facebook — but also some misgivings about technology. They think people share too much online and they wouldn't dream of texting in church.
They have never known life without the Internet and they have 250 friends on Facebook — but also some misgivings about technology.
That last bit raises an interesting point. The average millennial may not even go to church — only 36 percent consider themselves religious — but experts point out that may be a function more of youth than their particular generation.
"Religious participation tends to rise with age," said Peter Levine, director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement at Tufts University.
He said that some of the qualities that stood out in the millennial survey were also found in other generations when they were younger.
About half of millennials said they don't consider themselves a patriotic person, but that was also true of Generation X'ers when they were younger — and they grew more patriotic over time, Levine said.

One of the most striking findings in the report was the overwhelming optimism of millennials about their financial prospects.
Even though seven in 10 think people their age face more economic challenges than their parents' generation, 86 percent say they either make enough money for their current needs or think they will in the future.
One of the most striking findings in the report was the overwhelming optimism of millennials about their financial prospects.
But as Levine notes, opinions about economics tend to change over the life course and the optimistic streak may just be the "timeless confidence of youth."
"It may just be when you're 20, you think things are going to be better," he said.
Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, said the economic realities of their generation might make millennials more pessimistic over time.
Research shows that those who entered the labor market during or after the Great Recession will take a economic hit as a group, with depressed earnings that could stay that way for a decade or longer.

"As they start to mature into brackets where you want to think about starting a family and buying a house, they will realize they were just unlucky to be born at a time where they were entering this labor market, and that will weigh heavy on them," said Shierholz, who studies young workers.
Another possible optimism-killer: As millennials struggle financially "it's just a matter of time before people start blaming them," she said.
"It wont be long before they start getting labeled as lazy or disaffected," she said.
Other views are unlikely to change over time. Sixty-eight percent of millenials say they support gay marriage and Levine said that it's clearly generational and will not taper off with time. It's the same with marijuana legalization, where millennial opinions are following the same trajectory of other generations, like Baby Boomers.
"It wont be long before they start getting labeled as lazy or disaffected."
Eight in 10 millennials support some path to legal status for undocumented workers, and Levine said that won't die down — in large part because 19 percent of the age group "can be loosely characterized as an immigrant."
One result that is certain to be different five years from now is the number of millennials on Facebook — currently 81 percent, according to Pew.

Lara Bashkoff of Bashki Global Consulting said the older end of the cohort may stay loyal, but she expects the overall percentage to drop.
"I don't think the young ones going to be as active on Facebook and there is definitely going to be something more compelling out there," she said.

[Jason78]

That's odd.  You'd think that the freedom to vote would necessarily generate the demand for democratic representatives that would represent the will of the people.

Seems like the system is broken when there's no one that millennials can vote for that represent their interests.

[AllPurposeAtheist]

Peoples political views change over time.  They tend to become somewhat more conservative,  not necessarily gop or libertarian,  but more center as they age, but the center which often shifts left to right and vica versa. They also tend to vote more on local issues as they age as local law becomes more relevant in their lives with school bonds, local taxes, which mayor or city council members serve their intrest more and so on.  
The pendulum swings to and fro, hither hather and where it lands nobody knows.

[SGOS]

That's odd.  You'd think that the freedom to vote would necessarily generate the demand for democratic representatives that would represent the will of the people.

Seems like the system is broken when there's no one that millennials can vote for that represent their interests.

I'm quite sure it's broken.  Given confidence scores in congress, it would seem like nearly everyone thinks it's broken.  The system benefits politicians, not people.

[AllPurposeAtheist]

It favors m o n e y and little more.

[HomophobicAtheist]

People don't want to work and love handouts. In this day and age you and your family could live on handouts. Making illegals legal for votes. Apparently deporting illegals is "racist". Because all illegals are non white....Make African Americans believe the modern day GOP is not any different than people who enslaved and oppressed their ancestors. Saying that young African American boys/ men are being targeted by the so called racist  gun toting Republicans The list goes on and on. Promise something, do nothing,blame someone else.

[Plu]

People don't want to work and love handouts.

You hang around with the wrong kind of people.

[HomophobicAtheist]

People don't want to work and love handouts.

You hang around with the wrong kind of people.

These days being on the right side of things is apparently wrong.

[AllPurposeAtheist]

Gosh, we have a conservotard. How amusing.  *click*  :roll: