who else is afraid donald trump will get elected?

[Baruch]

Replaying the US civil war or the English civil war would be a ... bad idea.  Such events weren't anti-government, not anarchist.  It was about one idea of government against another.  The idea of continuous revolution, was supposed to be resolved by democratic elections, so that armed insurrection is unnecessary.

[Gerard]

by phrasing the question like that you make it meaningless. "'people's (or at least some people's) right to start a civil war" Obviously there's not right to start civil wars this question seems like pure smuggery rather than a proper question. BTW i made zero arguments about gun control, i just described how civil wars work from my experience and that armed civilians play a big factor and can be a considerable obstacle to a professional military force specially when the chain of command has been recently fractured due to the start of the civil war. Also the slow escalation of violence, the fear of destroying national infrastructure and innocent civilians, the fear of international reprisal for using full military force on your own cities and the growing hatred between factions generating more insurgency.

Yes I see and I apologise. The point I was trying to make was not directed at you, but at the notion that some people seem to have about the right to bear arms and how it would enable them to resist perceived tyranny.

Gerard

[GSOgymrat]

I quite honestly think Trump's self-absorbment borders on sociopathy: watch how he reacts when he starts losing primaries.  He's going to blame everyone and everything but himself and his own message.  You won't even see the mildest sort of taking responsibility, like "We just didn't get our message across" -- it's going to be everyone else's fault but his.

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/11/donald-trump-narcissism-therapists

For mental-health professionals, Donald Trump is at once easily diagnosed but slightly confounding. “Remarkably narcissistic,” said developmental psychologist Howard Gardner, a professor at Harvard Graduate School of Education. “Textbook narcissistic personality disorder,” echoed clinical psychologist Ben Michaelis. “He’s so classic that I’m archiving video clips of him to use in workshops because there’s no better example of his characteristics,” said clinical psychologist George Simon, who conducts lectures and seminars on manipulative behavior. “Otherwise, I would have had to hire actors and write vignettes. He’s like a dream come true.” ...

Mr. Trump’s bullying natureâ€"taunting Senator John McCain for being captured in Vietnam, or saying Jeb Bush has “low energy”â€"is in keeping with the narcissistic profile. “In the field we use clusters of personality disorders,” Michaelis said. “Narcissism is in cluster B, which means it has similarities with histrionic personality disorder, borderline personality disorder, and antisocial personality disorder. There are similarities between them. Regardless of how you feel about John McCain, the man servedâ€"and suffered. Narcissism is an extreme defense against one’s own feelings of worthlessness. To degrade people is really part of a cluster-B personality disorder: it’s antisocial and shows a lack of remorse for other people. The way to make it O.K. to attack someone verbally, psychologically, or physically is to lower them. That’s what he’s doing.” ...

What of Trump’s tendency to position himself as a possible savior to the economy despite the fact that four of his companies have declared bankruptcy? “It’s mind-boggling to me that that’s not the story,” said Michaelis. “This man has been given more than anyone could ever hope for,” he added, referring to the fact that Trump is not wholly self-made, “yet he’s failed miserably time and time again.” Licensed clinical social worker Wendy Terrie Behary, the author of Disarming the Narcissist: Surviving and Thriving with the Self-Absorbed, said, “Narcissists are not necessarily liars, but they are notoriously uncomfortable with the truth. The truth means the potential to feel ashamed. If all they have to show the world as a source of feeling acceptable is their success and performance, be it in business or sports or celebrity, then the risk of people seeing them fail or squander their success is so difficult to their self-esteem that they feel ashamed. We call it the narcissistic injury. They’re uncomfortable with their own limitations. It’s not that they’re cut out to lie, it’s just that they can’t handle what’s real.” ...

Asked what, if Mr. Trump were their patient, they would “work on” with him, several of the therapists laughed. “I’d be shocked if he walked in my door,” said Behary. “Most narcissists don’t seek treatment unless there’s someone threatening to take something away from them. There’d have to be some kind of meaningful consequence for him to come in.” Simon concurred but added, “There is help available, but it doesn’t look like the help people are used to. It’s not insight-oriented psychotherapy, because narcissists already have insight. They’re aware; the problem is, they don’t care. They know how you’d like them to act; the problem is, they’ve got a different set of rules. ...

But for at least one mental-health professional, the Trump enigma, or should we say non-enigma, is larger than the bluster of the man whose own Web site calls him “the very definition of the American success story, continually setting the standards of excellence”â€"to this mind-set, Trump may be a kind of bellwether. Mr. Gardner said, “For me, the compelling question is the psychological state of his supporters. They are unable or unwilling to make a connection between the challenges faced by any president and the knowledge and behavior of Donald Trump. In a democracy, that is disastrous.”

[Nonsensei]

I think we have yet to actually meet Donald Trump. I also think we have yet to meet Hillary Clinton or any other candidate for that matter. We don't truly figure out who a politician really is or what they really stand for until its too late for us to alter our vote.

All of this insane crap he says is, in my opinion, nothing more than a cold calculation. Theres no way a savvy businessman like Trump is simultaneously close minded and stupid enough to really believe that a blanket "solution" like banning all Muslims from the United States would really work. But he does believe that saying it will would get him elected. So far, he has been shown to be right. He is, after all, the republican front-runner by a long margin despite all the overtly racist and bigoted positions he has parroted.

He has a formula that works, at least for winning the Republican nomination. The more he appeals to racists and makes it look like hes thumbing his nose at progressive liberals, the more he energizes the aging republican base to form up behind him. They hate liberals, and he knows it. Hes using that reality to better effect than any candidate before him has ever managed to.

I'll say it again: I believe this is nothing more than cold, hard calculation. If I'm right, then nobody will have any idea what sort of president he would be until after hes already in office, not even his most rabid supporters.

Will he be elected? I doubt it. Once he wins the nomination you will see him start to backpedal to a much more moderate stance because he knows that he can't get into office on the backs of just the Republican voters. He will have galvanized those voters, possibly to levels never seen before. However, the way he managed to galvanize them ensures that opposing voters are equally galvanized.

I don't see a winning scenario for Trump, despite how strong his campaign looks right now. Unless Hillary truly screws up she probably has this one in the bag.

[Shiranu]

All of this insane crap he says is, in my opinion, nothing more than a cold calculation. Theres no way a savvy businessman like Trump is simultaneously close minded and stupid enough to really believe that a blanket "solution" like banning all Muslims from the United States would really work.

I wouldn't call him an overly savvy businessman; he came from money and didn't build his way up. And once you are at the top like that... it's much harder to fall than to stay afloat. He has spent his life surrounded by people who know how to keep him afloat (and thus their paychecks).

Likewise... I think you give even savvy businessman too much credit. There are savvy businessmen...brilliant doctors... fantastic mathematicians who believe all sorts of the craziest things you can believe... stuff even more crazy than anything Donald Trump said. Being smart in your field of work does not mean you cant be an idiot in every other possible way.

[Johan]

The Republicans might be assholes, but they aren't stupid.  OK, maybe the presidents and the congressmen for the party are sometimes, but there is a structure of intelligent committees working in the background that deals with this kind of shit.  I don't pretend to know their thoughts or their strategy, but they probably wield more power than the front men.

I think this is what we all hope is true. That there are intelligent and rational individuals behind the scenes pulling the strings and handling strategy for the buffoons in office. But it is all easily undone with one word. Palin.

[Baruch]

But it is all easily undone with one Mr Potatoe Head, Dan Quayle.  And who can forget Spiro T?

[SGOS]

Yes, we should never forget Dan Quayle.  Any type of bone head can get elected to a high office, and Trump as self absorbed as he is, is probably smarter than Dan Quayle.  Palin also deserves special consideration, only she was rejected by a small number of electoral votes.  Still, she was the governor of Alaska.

[josephpalazzo]

People who have met Trump on a personal basis say that he is engaging, warm and listens to what people have to say. So perhaps Nonsensei is on spot, that his public rhetoric is just cold calculation to get the Republican base to elect him to the nomination. Whether this will work is another matter. 

[Shiranu]

People who have met Trump on a personal basis say that he is engaging, warm and listens to what people have to say. So perhaps Nonsensei is on spot, that his public rhetoric is just cold calculation to get the Republican base to elect him to the nomination. Whether this will work is another matter. 

People say the same thing about Kim Jong-il and other psychopaths as well... that is part of having a narcissistic and manipulative personality. It's what these people do when they have power that matters.

Really, people are looking for far to complex of explanation rather than just admit idiots and narcissistic people exist...

[Unbeliever]

Is Trump a narcissist or a megalomaniac?

[Baruch]

Actually bad people in high places, can do quite well for us ... if they are for us and not against us, and they are sufficiently non-marginal in function that they can win.  Presidents Wilson and FDR are examples.  The Kaiser and Hitler are counter-examples.  If the Kaiser had played his cards right (if he was a smart as Bismark) he would have kept his crown and had a net gain from the first year of the war.  Similarly ... if Hitler had been marginally sane, given his genius ... he would have gone down as the greatest German leader of all time.  It isn't the guy who can overcome his fear of heights that is the problem, it is the guy who thinks he can jump off the high roof and fly ... mania and overconfidence are only good if you can manage them.

[Nonsensei]

People say the same thing about Kim Jong-il and other psychopaths as well... that is part of having a narcissistic and manipulative personality. It's what these people do when they have power that matters.

Really, people are looking for far to complex of explanation rather than just admit idiots and narcissistic people exist...

Idiots and narcissistic people exist, and he is manipulating them to further his own ends.

I don't think my theory is particularly complex. In fact, manipulating the sensibilities of the voter base is something every politician does. The only thing different in what Trump is doing is that he doesn't seem to be respecting any limits on what he is willing to say to manipulate his supporters, and of course that he is meeting with uncommon success for the moment.

I mean lets face it, people who really think building a wall between the US and Mexico to stop illegal immigration, or who think that banning Muslims from the US will accomplish anything are dumb, uneducated or simply afraid. And to actually, genuinely hold those beliefs you need to be dumb, uneducated and/or afraid. Do any of these things describe Trump?

The man is well educated and, more importantly, has a lifetime of real world experience that most people would never have the opportunity to get. He is highly successful in business, and its just hard for me to believe that a guy like this would seriously support something as financially non-viable as building a US/Mexico border wall. He would be able to see how insane such a project would be. That he purports to endorse it is highly suspicious to me, and smacks of voter manipulation.

Lets keep in mind that, just ten years ago, this guy described himself as a Democrat. Hes a chameleon, just like every other politician is to some degree or another. Hes just saying what he has to to get past the primaries. This is why, when pressed for details on many of his ridiculous "plans" he comes up short. Because they aren't his genuine beliefs, he hasn't spent any time thinking about how to make them work. Additionally, it isn't important to the success of his campaign to provide those details. His dumb, uneducated supporter base is pleased enough to have a serious national candidate talking about banning all Muslims and shit that he doesn't need to get into how he is going to make any of this work.

[Shiranu]

Idiots and narcissistic people exist, and he is manipulating them to further his own ends.

Yes... but that doesn't mean he somehow exists outside that class.

I don't think my theory is particularly complex. In fact, manipulating the sensibilities of the voter base is something every politician does. The only thing different in what Trump is doing is that he doesn't seem to be respecting any limits on what he is willing to say to manipulate his supporters, and of course that he is meeting with uncommon success for the moment.

So he is a male Sarah Palin or a white Ben Carson... yet we do not call Sarah Palin or Ben Carson intelligent people even though they are both highly successful individuals (with Carson being a well-educated doctor).

I mean lets face it, people who really think building a wall between the US and Mexico to stop illegal immigration, or who think that banning Muslims from the US will accomplish anything are dumb, uneducated or simply afraid. And to actually, genuinely hold those beliefs you need to be dumb, uneducated and/or afraid. Do any of these things describe Trump?

Do they? I think so... yes.

The man is well educated and, more importantly, has a lifetime of real world experience that most people would never have the opportunity to get.

Education =/= smart outside your field of study as men like Ben Carson prove. Nor would I call Donald Trump's lifetime of "real world experience" any more valid than someone who actually has to work to put food on their table. I honestly do not even understand what you are trying to say... that being rich and isolating yourself around one class of people somehow makes you more "experienced" than someone who has to work for everything they have?

I mean my whole life has really been a no...and I fought through it. You know I have talked about it; it has not been easy for me... it has not been easy for me. I started out in Brooklyn and my dad gave me a small loan of ONE MILLION DOLLARS...

Yes... tell me more about his "lifetime of experience" that I am suppose to relate to... that is suppose to make me think he has experience with the issues that affect the common man.

He is highly successful in business, and its just hard for me to believe that a guy like this would seriously support something as financially non-viable as building a US/Mexico border wall.

A. A successful businessman is someone who built his way up to the top... not someone who was born at the top and has been surrounded by people all his life who know how to keep him there.
B. Are you shitting me? Have you seen the stupid shit rich people spend money on? Have you seen how quickly the ultra-rich are to play with the economy and send it (and thus their own cash) tumbling to the ground?

I think you give rich people far too much credit. They are human just like us.

Lets keep in mind that, just ten years ago, this guy described himself as a Democrat. Hes a chameleon, just like every other politician is to some degree or another. Hes just saying what he has to to get past the primaries. This is why, when pressed for details on many of his ridiculous "plans" he comes up short. Because they aren't his genuine beliefs, he hasn't spent any time thinking about how to make them work. Additionally, it isn't important to the success of his campaign to provide those details. His dumb, uneducated supporter base is pleased enough to have a serious national candidate talking about banning all Muslims and shit that he doesn't need to get into how he is going to make any of this work.

Or we can look at all the evidence from before he was running and see that he is just not a very bright man. That doesn't mean he cant be manipulative or cunning... but it doesn't mean that he is some political mastermind genius. You again are really giving him far more credit than he deserves. He is an old white man Kardashian... unless we want to start arguing that the Kardashians are geniuses (which to an extent I think they are in a very limited field) then we cannot act like Donald Trump is anything less than an arrogant buffoon.

Several come before his nomination...

http://www.bustle.com/articles/90679-the-16-worst-donald-trump-quotes-are-all-the-evidence-you-need-that-hell-never-and

http://www.ibtimes.com/pulse/donald-trump-quotes-50-best-sayings-republican-presidential-candidate-2040644

Yep. Not an idiot. It's all just an elaborate act... cant you see the simplicity about that?

[FaithIsFilth]

I think Trump banning Muslims and building a wall is about as likely as Ted Cruz not really being anti-Assad like he claims. Trump's playing up to the bigots with this fake debate over banning Muslims which will never come about, and Cruz seems to be playing up to the Christians who may appreciate that Assad is the only one keeping Christians safe in Syria right now. In reality, Cruz is as anti-Assad and anti-Russia as the rest, and Trump has about as much intent to ban Muslims and build a wall as Hillary does. It aint happening.