Political Scientist Robert Pape on Suicide Bombing, Terrorism, ISIS

[Shiranu]

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/big-boom-robert-pape-remakes-terrorism-studies

A fter 9/11, the University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape compiled a database of all the suicide terrorist attacks committed worldwide from 1980 to 2000â€"187 in total. Pape then analyzed his material, the most comprehensive collection of suicide terrorism ever assembled. His findings are illuminating. Rather than poverty, or a hatred of freedom or other Western values, or even Islamist fundamentalismâ€"as the popular theories claimedâ€"Pape found that the primary motive of suicide terrorists is the desire to compel democratic countries to abandon their occupations of foreign lands.

Pape’s work has proved powerful among academics for two reasons. For one, it is rigorously empirical. Dying to Win lists all known suicide attacks and categorizes them by date, target, weapon employed, and death toll. It cross-references these with an analysis of the various foreign occupations occurring from 1980 to 2003, which are themselves subdivided by different typologies. In other words, Pape moves terrorism from the realm of speculation to social science.

http://chicagopolicyreview.org/2015/05/05/myth-busting-robert-pape-on-isis-suicide-terrorism-and-u-s-foreign-policy/

I was really struck that half the suicide attacks were secular. I began to look at the patterns and I noticed that they were tightly clustered, both in where they occurred and the timing, and that 95 percent of the suicide attacks were in response to a military occupation.

I think it’s just wrong. [The author Graeme] Wood is painting a picture of ISIS as all religious, all the time. Interestingly in the second section he is talking about how the main difference with Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda is that ISIS really wants territory.

ISIS, and most suicide groups, are driven by an ideal of nationalism; they want to control their destiny with a state.
Wanting territory means there’s a community that wants a state. ISIS is composed of a leadership of about 25 people, which is one-third very heavily religious, for sure; one-third former Saddam [Hussein] military officers who are Baathists, who are secular; and one-third who are Sunni militia, Sunni tribal leaders. That just conveniently is lost in the Wood piece.

It’s definitely the case that ISIS wants to kill people who are not part of its community. But this is normal in nationalist groups. (Hutu wanted to kill Tutsi; they also wanted to kill moderate Hutu who didn’t want to kill Tutsi.)

...

When we did that in March 1991, we didn’t leave. That army stayed there, because we’re “hedging,” right? Well that hedging means we’re in control, or certainly viewed as in control. Al Qaeda, bin Laden, argued from the get-go that this would prevent there ever being a new regime to come in Riyadh. What he wanted was a much more Islamic regime, religious regime, but as he saw it a regime that reflected community self-determination. Well you can’t do that if the Americans have all these military troops stationed there to prevent exactly that kind of a change. You see what I mean?

The reason we’re talking about the Middle East isn’t because we’re just obsessing about Middle Eastern politics. It’s because with the end of the Cold War, that really was the new place we put forces where we hadn’t put them before.

Of course it will likely be buried under thread after thread about how Islam is the only threat to the world and how it is the cause of all evil, but it's interesting imo to have an actual expert, who spent years researching these issues, opinion on the subject rather than some talking head behind a camera who gets his news from Stormfront and Breitbart...

Guess he is probably just another Muslim apologist though :P.

[Baruch]

The Christian (or insert other group) rejection of gnosis is a tell.  Thanks for sharing some gnosis.

[aitm]

So what it seems to be saying is pretty much what every normal person already knows. They want their own land and their own state so they can treat other people the way they want to. Where is the surprise in that? That has been the norm for 30,000 years. Give us our own land and let us treat our own as we see fit, even if it means we rape and mutilate little girls, that is our land and fuck you. Hey, fine, if that will stop them then I am all for it.

[Sal1981]

Yes, let's ignore their blatant religious motive, I'm sure that'll work out.

[Shiranu]

Yes, let's ignore their blatant religious motive, I'm sure that'll work out.

Yes, let's ignore what experts in the field have said and have to say, I'm sure that'll work out.

[peacewithoutgod]

I didn't know Western democracies still actually occupied their countries. Other than Afghanistan, which was an absolute mess before we tried to help, they all have their own governments independent of us, or they don't through no fault other than their own.

[mauricio]

the anti-western discourse is a pretty essential part of the islamist rhetoric. Islamism is a marriage between politics, islamic fundamentalism and the notion of an authoritarian theocratic state.

[Baruch]

the anti-western discourse is a pretty essential part of the islamist rhetoric. Islamism is a marriage between politics, islamic fundamentalism and the notion of an authoritarian theocratic state.

The West is just jealous ... got 72 perpetual virgins?  The US is a marriage between politics, Christian fundamentalism and the notion of an authoritarian corporate state.

[hrdlr110]

I didn't know Western democracies still actually occupied their countries. Other than Afghanistan, which was an absolute mess before we tried to help, they all have their own governments independent of us, or they don't through no fault other than their own.

Really?  The US has a military presence in over 100 countries. Not an occupation,  but still. .....

[Shiranu]

Really?  The US has a military presence in over 100 countries. Not an occupation,  but still. .....

That combined with installed dictators and armies in their land less then a generation ago... It's not like the middle east hasn't had foreigners ( which includes the east not just west) running its affairs in awhile.

[Hydra009]

Of course it will likely be buried under thread after thread about how Islam is the only threat to the world and how it is the cause of all evil, but it's interesting imo to have an actual expert, who spent years researching these issues, opinion on the subject rather than some talking head behind a camera who gets his news from Stormfront and Breitbart...

You know what's hilarious?  The World Affairs Journal is actually a right-leaning publication according to wiki.  Apparently, the Right still has some sane people.  Who knew?  Robert Pape is an interesting scholar as well.  He was even an adviser to Obama for a while.  They probably go to the same Mosque.  :P

As for the content itself - I agree, generally speaking, terrorism is more about politics than religion.  And yes, perceived foreign occupiers plays a big role in that, as does the disdain for national governments perceived as puppet states of the West (Afghanistan and Iraq's national governments are prime examples).

[CloneKai]

I didn't know Western democracies still actually occupied their countries. Other than Afghanistan, which was an absolute mess before we tried to help, they all have their own governments independent of us, or they don't through no fault other than their own.

taliban came from ISI (pakistan intelligence agency) with help of CIA to fight of the USSR and then they had too much power. and of course america left that place as soon possible, leaving poor and corrupt pakistani government to take care of them.
And i am not sure your government ever tried to help.

[CloneKai]

So what it seems to be saying is pretty much what every normal person already knows. They want their own land and their own state so they can treat other people the way they want to. Where is the surprise in that? That has been the norm for 30,000 years. Give us our own land and let us treat our own as we see fit, even if it means we rape and mutilate little girls, that is our land and fuck you. Hey, fine, if that will stop them then I am all for it.

Exporting democracy doesn't make sense to me, especially since the uneducated locals will vote for sharia law as soon as possible. education, secularism and diversity of thought will be last thing on their mind.

and i have no problem with colonization provided the locals get the same benefit too. not like UK, take control of the land and, kill as many locals as possible, steal as much as possible and then put authoritarian laws on top of them which aren't exactly human right compatible.

force the locals to learn, force them to improve their life. stop their stone age practices.
muslim will stop complaining eventually, once their country start looking like japan.

but the west never seems to be interested in human rights, especially in foreign land.
putting dictators in power, the same dictators which muslim hate, not because they are secular but because they are cruel and they barely help improve the local life style.

[Sylar]

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/big-boom-robert-pape-remakes-terrorism-studies

http://chicagopolicyreview.org/2015/05/05/myth-busting-robert-pape-on-isis-suicide-terrorism-and-u-s-foreign-policy/

Of course it will likely be buried under thread after thread about how Islam is the only threat to the world and how it is the cause of all evil, but it's interesting imo to have an actual expert, who spent years researching these issues, opinion on the subject rather than some talking head behind a camera who gets his news from Stormfront and Breitbart...

Guess he is probably just another Muslim apologist though :P.

You know what's hilarious?  The World Affairs Journal is actually a right-leaning publication according to wiki.  Apparently, the Right still has some sane people.  Who knew?  Robert Pape is an interesting scholar as well.  He was even an adviser to Obama for a while.  They probably go to the same Mosque.  :P

As for the content itself - I agree, generally speaking, terrorism is more about politics than religion.  And yes, perceived foreign occupiers plays a big role in that, as does the disdain for national governments perceived as puppet states of the West (Afghanistan and Iraq's national governments are prime examples).

The majority of suicide attacks occur in Arab or Islamic countries and the targets are usually civilian markets or neighborhoods; they rarely are foreign embassies.

While I do not doubt the expertise of the author, I am skeptic about his conclusion. Cited motive, if not backed by action, is a lie. A suicide bomber or the terrorist group he belonged to may cite their despise of America's occupation of "Islamic lands", but when he detonates himself in a civilian neighborhood in an Islamic country then the cited motive doesn't hold scrutiny. The action simply does not yield the desired outcome as inferred from the motive.

[Baruch]

Suicide bombers are usually deluded liars.  Some people are pressured into it, not by political conviction.  Studying them too much, will make you into Hannibal Lecter.