The next recession cannot be avoided and it is not far away

[SGOS]

The fact that gas prices are low may or may not be a problem.  Personally, I like these prices.  But in the past, I've noticed that higher prices were followed 6 months later by a soaring economy.  I don't know, but perhaps low gas prices may signal a recession.  This is just a relationship I've noticed twice before.  They may or may not be related.

[Baruch]

If you were working in the petroleum industry 12 months ago, you are probably already ... underemployed.  Otherwise no immediate effect on other sectors of the economy ... low fuel prices are generally good.  Some financial institutions that placed all their bets on W Canada and N Dakota ... probably are in trouble too ... but then you shouldn't gamble with other people's money.

The larger issue is China vs Europe vs N America.  There is a general deflation, that can become self reinforcing ... just as there can be a general inflation, that can become self reinforcing.  Deflation has been the problem since 2008 in general.

[josephpalazzo]

The fact that gas prices are low may or may not be a problem.  Personally, I like these prices.  But in the past, I've noticed that higher prices were followed 6 months later by a soaring economy.  I don't know, but perhaps low gas prices may signal a recession.  This is just a relationship I've noticed twice before.  They may or may not be related.

Low oil price is due to a glut at the moment. It was a glut before Iran entered the market, it is even more so since the sanctions have been lifted, and so Iran's oil will depress prices even more.  But you are correct, there are signs that a recession is underway. What's troubling though is no one among the bigwigs in economics can figure why. In 2008, some were able to see it coming with the financial crisis coupled to the collapse of the bubble in the house industry. This time around, no one can really put the fingers on. China's economy is slowing down but at an annual growth rate of around 5%, it's still respectable. The US at close to 4% should lift the world economy out of the doldrums, but apparently it isn't. Interest rate still near zero, and with QE and the kind of money that was pumped into the market, inflation should have started to climb up a long time ago, but it isn't. So what gives? The 6 million dollar question...

[AllPurposeAtheist]

I've been waiting for this next great depression since I can remember. The threat is of course always there, but the global economy is much different than it was 70-80 years ago.  No longer can another country demand all of another countries gold reserves and lay waste to the population as it once could.  There was a time when just a handful of nations and individuals could control almost all commerce. The global economy is very diversified as compared to 1929 so the predictions of gloom and doom are usually overblown. Farming techniques are far different now and transportation and distribution is much better than then. In 1929 if the crops failed and the prices bottomed out everyone was fucked because there was only a small window of opportunity to get commodities to market before everything spoiled.
I'm not saying that global depression is impossible because it is, but the likelihood is far less than in 1929 and the impact wouldn't be as severe.
The doomsayers will have you believe that within a few months employment will fall with 30-40% unemployment, but I don't think that is going to happen. It's not all sunshine and roses, but it's not the 1920s either.

[AllPurposeAtheist]

Hurry up and go buy your gas guzzling SUV before it's too late!  By the time oil prices rebound if you don't have your Cadillac Escalade and spending $200 every time you buy gasoline then you just won't be a good American..

[Unbeliever]

unless Americans vote in 2016 for a Democratic-dominated Congress, in which case I will eat my words...

As an atheist, this is one of the few things I feel justified in praying for!

[Unbeliever]

but then you shouldn't gamble with other people's money.

Tell that to the banks - with the repeal of Glass-Steagle they can and do gamble with others' money.

[Baruch]

The criminal voters, voted in the criminal politicians to run the criminal government

The criminal consumers, provided patronage of criminal corporate products/services

The criminal employees, man the criminal corporations to provide those products/services

The criminal investors, make the criminal banks possible and provide leaders for the criminal corporations

The criminal banks, make looting and money laundering on a vast scale possible

There is no clean shirt in the dirty laundry hamper ... and no honor among thieves.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

A recession is defined as three consecutive quarters with slow or no growth. I had reason to look this up when my moronic brother mentioned "Obama's Recession" in January, 2009.

[Baruch]

A recession is defined as three consecutive quarters with slow or no growth. I had reason to look this up when my moronic brother mentioned "Obama's Recession" in January, 2009.

We no longer have recessions or depressions ... the GDP, unemployment and CPI numbers are all diddled to come out the way the Dept of Propaganda want them to come out ...

http://www.shadowstats.com

[josephpalazzo]

A recession is defined as three consecutive quarters with slow or no growth. I had reason to look this up when my moronic brother mentioned "Obama's Recession" in January, 2009.

Generally, it's a slowdown in economic activity. Technically,  it is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP).  But there are usually other signs such as a bubble in a particular market, or decline such as in the stock market or jobs(rise in unemployment). Fore-signs such as a buildup in inventory or deflation are not good either.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

"If you laid all the economists in the world end to end they'd still point in all directions."

[AllPurposeAtheist]

Startling economic truth.. Lying liars will lie about lying. And here all this time you thought that the liars were honest..

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Startling economic truth.. Lying liars will lie about lying. And here all this time you thought that the liars were honest..

Not since I was seven.

[josephpalazzo]

"If you laid all the economists in the world end to end they'd still point in all directions."

That's because they like to cover all positions...