On the difference between the rational and non-rational life

[trdsf]

I had an odd experience today.  I was humming a particular Grateful Dead song, and when I turned on my XM radio, which starts on the 24 hour Grateful Dead channel, the song they were playing was exactly the one I was humming, and at about the same point in the song.

The non-rational reaction: "Ooo!  I'm psychic!"

My reaction: "Wow, I wonder what the probability of that was?  Well, lemme think... the Dead have a repertoire of several hundred songs, so that sets an upper limit.  I was singing a song by the Dead so it has a much higher chance of turning up on that channel than on any other.  Also, this is one of their more popular cuts among Deadheads, so it probably has a slightly higher chance of being played than any other song.  And it's one of their own songs and not a cover.  So we'll say it's in the top 50, and it's been in regular rotation since 1973, so it got a lot of concert play.  It's about seven to ten minutes long in concert, and the coda is an extended jam and a significant proportion of the song."

Practical upshot: I'm not psychic, it was small odds but even taking the whole repertoire into account, if I picked a random song I'd hit more often than one in a thousand.  Taking into account hitting roughly the same part of the song, it's still no more than one in a thousand, thereabouts, and since it was a popular song that stayed in the repertoire for 22 years, the probability is probably considerably better than that.

And I got to start my day with a smile.  :D

EDIT:  I found the numbers I was looking for: the total number of songs played by the Dead in concert, and the total number of times each song was played.  From 1965-1995, 436 different songs were played; 37318 individual song performances total.  The song I was singing to myself was played 269 times, for a raw chance of 0.72% of guessing the song right; estimating where I was in the song and having it come in around then, say 0.25% -- one in four hundred.  Granted, it doesn't take into account that the station also plays solo works and studio cuts, but adding those in does not make the odds astronomical considering concert play is the band's meat and potatoes.  I'm sure they're still well under one in a thousand.

Not bad for a ballpark guess!

[Goon]

I wonder what the odds are that you're psychic? I could be your manager. Atheist Psychic = $$$$$

[trdsf]

I wonder what the odds are that you're psychic? I could be your manager. Atheist Psychic = $$$$$

You know, if I weren't a good and moral atheist with a well-developed sense of right and wrong honed on the whetstone of logic and reason... I'd be well and truly up for fleecing the gullible.  :D

[aitm]

I find that oddly amusing that you would post this as a couple days ago a similar thing happened to me and I was going to mention it but I also realized that over my life it has happened many times, at least 4 that I can actually put a relative time too, so it happens a little more than you think. And I am pretty sure I am not psychic.

[Hijiri Byakuren]

There are people I've met who honestly think I'm psychic. When I explain that I'm just very observant and that anyone could have noticed what I did, they don't believe me. Yes, there are people who actually prefer to believe I have special powers rather than a set of skills I could easily teach them.

[trdsf]

I find that oddly amusing that you would post this as a couple days ago a similar thing happened to me and I was going to mention it but I also realized that over my life it has happened many times, at least 4 that I can actually put a relative time too, so it happens a little more than you think. And I am pretty sure I am not psychic.

That's kinda the whole point -- these things do happen more than you think, and when you do the math, they're not as uncommon as one thinks.

I can do no better here than to refer to The Infinite Monkey Cage from BBC Radio 4, and their episode on Randomness, Probability and Chance, with guests Tim Minchin and Alex Bellos.

[SGOS]

I had an odd experience today.  I was humming a particular Grateful Dead song, and when I turned on my XM radio, which starts on the 24 hour Grateful Dead channel, the song they were playing was exactly the one I was humming, and at about the same point in the song.

The non-rational reaction: "Ooo!  I'm psychic!"

Yeah, well what's really weird is that I knew three days ago, that you were going to start this thread.

[trdsf]

Yeah, well what's really weird is that I knew three days ago, that you were going to start this thread.

There was about a 3 in 700 chance you were going to do that, too.

[hrdlr110]

That's kinda the whole point -- these things do happen more than you think, and when you do the math, they're not as uncommon as one thinks.

I can do no better here than to refer to The Infinite Monkey Cage from BBC Radio 4, and their episode on Randomness, Probability and Chance, with guests Tim Minchin and Alex Bellos.

Given the time spent on research, next meshing your research with the math that provided calculations and odds of this happening, is it any wonder some would just say it's voodoo? Or god. Just god. Good on you for not taking the lazy way out. Now, about next weeks lottery..........?

[aitm]

People get all goose bumpily when they watch these TV specials where they find three sets of twin who were separated at birth  but married other twins with the same names and lived in the same town and on and on and on and the idiots buy into this being some type of fucking god ordained miracle when no one, for the fucking sake of common sense point out the millions of twins that have absolutely no type of coincidence in their lives…..because the fucking ODDS are it will happen to x amount of people…….le sigh

[trdsf]

Okay, this is getting weird.  It happened again today, and the radio was within about a second of where I was in the song.  Different song.  Odds when I get home.  That's two days out of three.

I feel obliged to point out, yes, I know this is all anecdotal evidence to the rest of you, you have no evidence beyond my word that it's happened at all, and yes, I still maintain that I am not psychic, this is just a weird coincidence.  Assuming the odds are comparable, it's going to be around one in 160,000.  Not even near lottery odds yet.

[Mike Cl]

Okay, this is getting weird.  It happened again today, and the radio was within about a second of where I was in the song.  Different song.  Odds when I get home.  That's two days out of three.

I feel obliged to point out, yes, I know this is all anecdotal evidence to the rest of you, you have no evidence beyond my word that it's happened at all, and yes, I still maintain that I am not psychic, this is just a weird coincidence.  Assuming the odds are comparable, it's going to be around one in 160,000.  Not even near lottery odds yet.

What the hell are you doing here, telling us this stuff??!!  Get you ass to Vegas--right now--bet everything ya got on whatever your brain says to--you are dialed into the universe right now--go for it!!!!

[trdsf]

What the hell are you doing here, telling us this stuff??!!  Get you ass to Vegas--right now--bet everything ya got on whatever your brain says to--you are dialed into the universe right now--go for it!!!!

I will be picking up some lottery tickets on the way home.  Just to keep the unrational part of my brain happy.  :D

Funny thing is, last week I dreamed I called a friend at 3.30 in the morning to tell her that I'd just won the MegaMillions draw *and* the state lotto in the same week...

[Mike Cl]

I will be picking up some lottery tickets on the way home.  Just to keep the unrational part of my brain happy.  :D

Funny thing is, last week I dreamed I called a friend at 3.30 in the morning to tell her that I'd just won the MegaMillions draw *and* the state lotto in the same week...

What the hell--I'm rootin' for ya. 

[TrueStory]

Are you a musician or good at kareoke?  I mean it's not like you are starting at the begining of a song, singing the exact lyrics and tempo and hit right on it, or maybe you are?  Also it's not a coincidence that the station you prefer plays the same songs over and over again that they also prefer.