China's rising power

[The Skeletal Atheist]

My prediction: Japan will attain nuclear weapons within two decades, in order to protect itself ... if it hasn't already.

They don't really need to. They're a big ally with the US so if they feel the need I'm sure that the US will put some nukes at the bases. Maybe they already have. IIRC the US is obligated by treaty to lend a hand if Japan gets attacked. Not saying being allied with the US will cover everything, but they're not in this alone.

All in all I can see China going after Taiwan before they go after Japan. Despite the animosity between the 2 I don't see a big war starting between them unless US-China economic ties severely diminish. It would stupid to drag one off your biggest trading partners into a war with you.

As per Japan, I don't think they'd start the hostilities. That would just turn everyone against them.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I doubt Japan would also ever go to war with mainland China, besides maybe bombing ports and naval facilities. China is simply too big... without going nuclear, it would take a global invasion to really stand a chance at  holding it.

The Japanese learned this directly in the 14 years between 1931 and 1945, when well over a million IJA troops still could only exert control over the coast and Manchuria, for the most part. I doubt they have any desire to relearn that bloody lesson.

[AllPurposeAtheist]

We might see several proxy wars, but most of this is sabre rattling. The US, UK, France, Russia, China, India and the rest of the nuclear powers still operate under the premise of mutual assured destruction so we let the non nuclear powers dick it out. A few million dead trumps everyone dead every time. Sounds cold and caculated and it is,  but sure beats all out nuclear war nobody can win.

[Shol'va]

They're a big ally with the US so if they feel the need I'm sure that the US will put some nukes at the bases

Forgive my possibly excessive cynicism but between Wikileaks and Snowden, the stuff that has been undocumented paints a picture about the US foreign state of affairs (with all the spy BS going on, which borders on paranoid schizofrenia) that if I were a foreign contry cosignor of a treaty I would not think it worth the paper it is printed on, if push come to shove.

[darsenfeld]

China has no military might to match its economic power.  It's basic a large scale Japan or Germany.

[Solitary]

China has no military might to match its economic power.  It's basic a large scale Japan or Germany.

How long have you been living in La La Land?  #-o  :rollin:  :roll:  http://youtu.be/A_gWbBNtbaI Solitary

[Thumpalumpacus]

Given the events in the Ukraine, I wouldn't be surprised to see China working it a little bit.

[darsenfeld]

er..  so yeah, a video on Youtube regarding China's might is proof right?

Bar nukes, does it have a blue water navy?

Is its army well trained and equipped?  

Does it have a world-class air force?

Does it have recent large scale combat experience?

In most of those items, it's no.  It still has some way to reach UK, France or Russia levels, let alone the USA.  It's basically now where the US was in 1880 or so, a major economic power but not much in terms of global military power.  at least not yet.

[Moralnihilist]

er..  so yeah, a video on Youtube regarding China's might is proof right?

(1)Bar nukes, does it have a blue water navy?

(2)Is its army well trained and equipped?  

(3)Does it have a world-class air force?

(4)Does it have recent large scale combat experience?

In most of those items, it's no.  It still has some way to reach UK, France or Russia levels, let alone the USA.  It's basically now where the US was in 1880 or so, a major economic power but not much in terms of global military power.  at least not yet.

1. Yes they do have a blue water navy, it isn't the largest in the world but it is a capable navy.
2. Yes, the Chinese army is a modern army.
3. World class? Again it is a modern Air force, is it on the level of the USAF? No, but a modern air force.
4. No, however being a UN nation, they do run war games with other UN nations on a fairly regular basis.


=edit=
Do you even look up anything before posting your bullshit?

[darsenfeld]

1 - er... OK, on even keel (no pun intended) with the US Navy, Royal Navy, Marine Nationale, or the Russian Navy?  If so, prove it.  Spain has an advanced navy, but it's not in the same league as the aforementioned.  And?

2 - er..  and?  Can you cite that with statements from military experts?  Is this in terms of training, arsenals, etc?

3 - meh, cite evidence kindly...

4 - As does the Congo, Belgium, Indonesia, and well duh, many other UN member states.  What's your point?

The fact is the USA, Russia, UK and France are still seen as the most powerful countries militarily, not because they have nukes but overall based on army, navy, air forces, technology, etc. capability.

OK, so you say China is now a "major" military power, prove it.  Though major for a country that hasn't won a war against another major world power in centuries is pushing it IMO...

[josephpalazzo]

Which part of "rising power" don't you understand?

[Plu]

China has the second largest military budget in the world and 2.2 million soldiers on active duty. That alone makes them fairly scary. (Although number of active soldiers means less and less these days.)

[AllPurposeAtheist]

Guess what,  as shoe implies (I think) everyone else has to eat too and are entitled to exist and enjoy the same benefits everyone else is entitled to.  I'm not wild about China and the implications of their rising power,  but China does the same things for China that every nation does or should,  take care of their interests and their people.

[Solitary]

er..  so yeah, a video on Youtube regarding China's might is proof right?

Bar nukes, does it have a blue water navy?

Is its army well trained and equipped?  

Does it have a world-class air force?

Does it have recent large scale combat experience?

In most of those items, it's no.  It still has some way to reach UK, France or Russia levels, let alone the USA.  It's basically now where the US was in 1880 or so, a major economic power but not much in terms of global military power.  at least not yet.

If you actually look at the entire video, yes!

But how about this Little Bus Rider:

The People's Republic of China has developed and possessed weapons of mass destruction, including chemical and nuclear weapons. China's first nuclear test took place in 1964 and first hydrogen bomb test occurred in 1967. Tests continued until 1996 when it signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). China has acceded to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1984 and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1997.
The number of nuclear warheads in China's arsenal is a state secret and is therefore unknown. There are varying estimates of the size of China's arsenal. A 2011 Georgetown University study estimated that China has as many as 3,000 warheads hidden in underground tunnels, whereas China is estimated by the Federation of American Scientists to have an arsenal of about 180 active nuclear weapon warheads and 240 total warheads as of 2009, which would make it the second smallest nuclear arsenal amongst the five nuclear weapon states acknowledged by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. According to some estimates, the country could "more than double" the "number of warheads on missiles that could threaten the United States by the mid-2020s".
Early in 2011, China published a defense white paper, which repeated its nuclear policies of maintaining a minimum deterrent with a no-first-use pledge. Yet China has yet to define what it means by a "minimum deterrent posture". This, together with the fact that "it is deploying four new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, invites concern as to the scale and intention of China's nuclear upgrade

China signed the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) on January 13, 1993. The CWC was ratified on April 25, 1997. In the official declaration submitted to the OPCW, the Chinese government declared that it had possessed a small arsenal of chemical weapons in the past but that it had destroyed it before ratifying the Convention. It has declared only three former chemical production facilities that may have produced mustard gas, phosgene and Lewisite.

China was found to have supplied Albania with a small stockpile of chemical weapons in the 1970s during the Cold War
China is currently a signatory of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention and Chinese officials have stated that China has never engaged in biological activities with offensive military applications. However, China was reported to have had an active biological weapons program in the 1980s.

Kanatjan Alibekov, former director of one of the Soviet germ-warfare programs, said that China suffered a serious accident at one of its biological weapons plants in the late 1980s. Alibekov asserted that Soviet reconnaissance satellites identified a biological weapons laboratory and plant near a site for testing nuclear warheads. The Soviets suspected that two separate epidemics of hemorrhagic fever that swept the region in the late 1980s were caused by an accident in a lab where Chinese scientists were weaponizing viral diseases.

US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright expressed her concerns over possible Chinese biological weapon transfers to Iran and other nations in a letter to Senator Robert E. Bennett (R-Utah) in January 1997.Albright stated that she had received reports regarding transfers of dual-use items from Chinese entities to the Iranian government which concerned her and that the United States had to encourage China to adopt comprehensive export controls to prevent assistance to Iran's alleged biological weapons program. The United States acted upon the allegations on January 16, 2002, when it imposed sanctions on three Chinese firms accused of supplying Iran with materials used in the manufacture of chemical and biological weapons. In response to this, China issued export control protocols on dual use biological technology in late 2002.

Mao Zedong decided to begin a Chinese nuclear-weapons program during the First Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1954-1955 over the Quemoy and Matsu Islands. While he did not expect to be able to match the large American nuclear arsenal, Mao believed that even a few bombs would increase China's diplomatic credibility. Construction of uranium enrichment plants in Baotou and Lanzhou began in 1958, and a plutonium facility in Jiuquan and the Lop Nur nuclear test site by 1960. The Soviet Union provided assistance in the early Chinese program by sending advisers to help in the facilities devoted to fissile material production, and in October 1957 agreed to provide a prototype bomb, missiles, and related technology. The Chinese, who preferred to import technology and components to developing them within China, exported uranium to the Soviet Union, and the Soviets sent two R-2 missiles in 1958.

That year, however, Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev told Mao that he planned to discuss arms control with the United States and Britain. China was already opposed to Khruschev's post-Stalin policy of "peaceful coexistence". Although Soviet officials assured China that it was under the Soviet nuclear umbrella, the disagreements widened the emerging Sino-Soviet split. In June 1959 the two nations formally ended their agreement on military and technology cooperation, and in July 1960 all Soviet assistance with the Chinese nuclear program was abruptly terminated and all Soviet technicians were withdrawn from the program. The American government under John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson was concerned about the program and studied ways to sabotage or attack it, perhaps with the aid of Taiwan or the Soviet Union,[citation needed] but Khruschev did not display interest. The first Chinese nuclear test, code-named 596, occurred on 16 October 1964.

The Chinese acknowledged that their nuclear program would have been impossible to complete without the Soviet help. China's first test of a nuclear device took place on October 16, 1964, at the Lop Nur test site. China's last nuclear test was on July 29, 1996. According to the Australian Geological Survey Organization in Canberra, the yield of the 1996 test was 1-5 kilotons. This was China's 22nd underground test and 45th test overall.

China has made significant improvements in its miniaturization techniques since the 1980s. There have been accusations, notably by the Cox Commission, that this was done primarily by covertly acquiring the U.S.'s W88 nuclear warhead design as well as guided ballistic missile technology.[citation needed] Chinese scientists have stated that they have made advances in these areas, but insist that these advances were made without espionage.
The international community has debated the size of the Chinese nuclear force since the nation first acquired such technology. Because of strict secrecy it is very difficult to determine the exact size and composition of China's nuclear forces.
Estimates vary over time. Several declassified U.S. government reports give historical estimates. The 1984 Defense Intelligence Agency's Defense Estimative Brief estimates the Chinese nuclear stockpile as consisting of between 150 and 160 warheads. A 1993 United States National Security Council report estimated that China's nuclear deterrent force relied on 60 to 70 nuclear armed ballistic missiles. The Defense Intelligence Agency's The Decades Ahead: 1999 - 2020 report estimates the 1999 Nuclear Weapons' Inventory as between 140 and 157. In 2004 the U.S. Department of Defense assessed that China had about 20 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of targeting the United States.In 2006 a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimate presented to the Senate Armed Services Committee was that "China currently has more than 100 nuclear warheads."
 
A variety of estimates abound regarding China's current stockpile. Although the total number of nuclear weapons in the Chinese arsenal is unknown, as of 2005 estimates vary from as low as 80 to as high as 2,000. The 2,000-warhead estimate has largely been rejected by diplomats in the field. It appears to have been derived from a 1990s-era Usenet post, in which a Singaporean college student made unsubstantiated statements concerning a supposed 2,000 warhead stockpile.

In 2004, China stated that "among the nuclear-weapon states, China... possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal," implying China has fewer than the United Kingdom's 200 nuclear weapons. Several non-official sources estimate that China has around 400 nuclear warheads. However, U.S. intelligence estimates suggest a much smaller nuclear force than many non-governmental organizations.

In 2011, high estimates of the Chinese nuclear arsenal again emerged. One three year study by Georgetown University raised the possibility that China had 3 000 nuclear weapons, hidden in a sophisticated tunnel network. The study was based on state media footage showing tunnel entrances, and estimated a 4 800 km (3 000 mile) network. The tunnel network was revealed after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake collapsed tunnels in the hills. China has confirmed the existing of the tunnel network In response, the US military was ordered by law to study the possibility of this tunnel network concealing a nuclear arsenal.However, the tunnel theory has come under substantial attack due to several apparent flaws in its reasoning.

 From a production standpoint, China probably does not have enough fissile material to produce 3,000 nuclear weapons. Such an arsenal would require 9-12 tons of Plutonium as well as 45-75 tons of Enriched uranium and a substantial amount of Tritium The Chinese are estimated to have only 2 tons of weapons grade plutonium, which limits their arsenal to 450-600 weapons, despite a 16 ton disposable supply of uranium, theoretically enough for 1,000 warheads. Additionally, the PRC's supply of Tritium limits its stockpile to around 300 weapons.

In 2012, A retired Russian officer, Viktor Yesin, stated that the Chinese arsenal was at 1,800 nuclear weapons. Yesin's statements, however, have incited backlash. His claims may have originated from the same Usenet post that previous dubious assertions of 2,000 or more nuclear warheads stemmed from.
As of 2011, the Chinese nuclear arsenal was estimated to contain 55-65 ICBM's.

In 2012, STRATCOM commander C. Robert Kehler said that the best estimates where "in the range of several hundred" warheads and FAS estimated the current total to be "approximately 240 warheads".
The U.S. Department of Defense 2013 report to Congress on China's military developments stated that the Chinese nuclear arsenal consists of 50-75 ICBM's, located in both land-based silo's and Ballistic missile submarine platforms. In addition to the ICBM's, the report stated that China has approximately 1,100 Short-range ballistic missiles, although it does not have the warhead capacity to equip them all with nuclear weapons.
Nuclear policy

China is one of the five nuclear weapons states (NWS) recognized by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which China ratified in 1992. China is the only NWS to give an unqualified security assurance to non-nuclear-weapon states:

"China undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon States or nuclear-weapon-free zones at any time or under any circumstances."Chinese public policy has always been one of the "no first use rule" while maintaining a deterrent retaliatory force targeted for countervalue targets.

In 2005, the Chinese Foreign Ministry released a white paper stating that the government "would not be the first to use [nuclear] weapons at any time and in any circumstance". In addition, the paper went on to state that this "no first use" policy would remain unchanged in the future and that China would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones.
China normally stores nuclear warheads separately from their launching systems, unless there is a heightened threat level.

Historically, China has been implicated in the development of the Pakistani nuclear program. In the early 1980s, China is believed to have given Pakistan a "package" including uranium enrichment technology, high-enriched uranium, and the design for a compact nuclear weapon.
Delivery Systems Estimates

2010 IISS Military Balance
The following are estimates of China's strategic missile forces from the International Institute of Strategic Studies Military Balance 2010. According to these estimates, China has up to 90 inter-continental range ballistic missiles (66 land-based ICBMs and 24 submarine-based JL-2 SLBMs), not counting MIRV warheads.

You are talking about the way war was, when you should be talking about how it is now, with two Super Powers destroying each other totally in an all out war. How many weapon doers it take to destroy the United States, and if it is by man power alone we couldn't kill them fast enough and be overwhelmed. Solitary

[Jmpty]

Yeah. Because China is always sending it's military to "liberate" other countries. Wait. I was thinking of some other country.