Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

 Astronauts still waiting for their ride home?

[Hydra009]

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/13/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-reaction-00003024

[Hydra009]

Portugal reconsiders buying F-35 after Trump's erratic behavior towards Ukraine

That spat with Zelenskyy might ultimately go down in history as the world's most expensive tantrum.

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Putin rejects ceasefire

Well, not a flat-out rejection, but more a "we're interested in a ceasefire, BUT" with a laundry list of unworkable demands.  Chillingly, one of the "root causes" of the conflict is apparently Ukrainian sovereignty.

Putin has said he wants Ukraine to drop its ambitions to join NATO, Russia to control the entirety of the four Ukrainian regions it has claimed as its own, and the size of the Ukrainian army to be limited.

There was even some other stuff, like a lack of mobilizing or training of the Ukrainian military and no military aid during the ceasefire.  Note that the Russian military has no such restrictions.  Absolutely insane that a country can try to dictate the internal affairs of another country, especially its military.  So long as no shells are being fired, what's the problem?  Whether there's 200 or 2000 or 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine, so long as they're not in Russia, what does it matter?

I called it with the 4 territories claimed, which is a complete nonstarter with Ukraine - not only is Russia trying to get more at the bargaining table than they can realistically claim with military might, accepting that would turn Ukraine into a rump state and invite further aggression, especially without NATO membership or security guarantees or NATO/EU peacekeepers.  Absolutely insane demands, almost certainly in response to weak US negotiation.  Give them everything they want at the negotiating table and of course they'll ask for more just to see if they can get it.  Stupid.

Apparently, another freebee concession to the Kremlin was excluding Kellogg from the talks.  Stupid.

Putin listed ceasefire-related issues that he said now needed clarifying and thanked Trump, who says he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker, for his efforts to end the war. Both Moscow and Washington now cast the conflict as a deadly proxy war with the potential to trigger World War Three.

That proxy war thing is obviously Kremlin propaganda though, so agreeing to that is just falling for disinformation and allowing the Kremlin to dictate reality.  The US didn't start the war.  Ukraine didn't start the war.  Putin and Russia started the war.  Period.  That's reality.  So sick of weak men (if they were strong, they wouldn't need to deceive and manipulate) pointing at a cat and calling it a duck.  Stupid tricks that only work on stupid people.

[Hydra009]

Taskforce that helped locate abducted Ukrainian children was axed by Musk

The Yale team located hundreds of children who were unlawfully brought to Russia working with Bring Kids Back UA, a campaign launched by Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president.

In all, around 1,240 have been repatriated.

The Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL), which was based at Yale University is the latest organisation to fall victim to the tech billionaire's evisceration of the federal budget.

It is estimated that more than 20,000 Ukrainian children have been kidnapped by the Russians since the 2022 invasion.

"Researchers at the Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) were notified recently that government funding for their work on the war in Ukraine has been discontinued," a Yale spokesman said.

[Hydra009]

Putin genuinely believes he's in a position of strength, so he's uninterested in a peace deal.  Hell, his forces are retaking Kursk region as we speak.  And while the West is providing aid to Ukraine, we've all found out the hard way that it can be cut off at any time.

Another thing is that a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would mean acknowledging Ukraine as a sovereign state - which Putin does not.  That's a big part of the reason for the conflict in the first place.

And the last thing is that Russia's war economy is so heavily focused on Ukraine that it simply can't handle transitioning back to peace without crashing.  As reported earlier, Russia can neither afford victory nor defeat.  Obviously, this can't continue forever and reality is going to hit home in a big way sooner or later, but Russia is counting on the West's will to continue sanctions to break before Russia's economy.  A risky maneuver, but so was the war.

[Unbeliever]

Putin should beware the ides of March.

[Hydra009]

He's not wrong

[the_antithesis]

Putin should beware the ides of March.

Had I my druthers, I'd have him and all of his cronies torn apart by wild dogs. If any of them complain, they would get the back of my hand and I'd say "This is the world you were building."

[Hydra009]

Along with Portugal, Canada now reconisdering buying F-35s

Canada's aboot-face is probably a bit less focused on doubt about the US's reliability under Trump and more the end result of direct and repeated antagonism by Trump.  Still it's a hell of a thing for the arsenal of democracy to lose business with Putin on the warpath.  Only a financial genius of Trump's caliber could make that happen.

Canada signed a contract in 2023 for 88 F-35s for $13.2 billion usd.  It already paid for the first 16, due to be delivered next year.  Presumably, that part can't be cancelled.  But the other 72 are still up in the air (figuratively).

[Unbeliever]

Canada's mechanics had better check them out very well. I wouldn't trust anything at all from AmeriKKKa at this point.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine converts its anti-ship Neptune missile to hit land targets

This missile can hit targets up to 1000km away.  Kyiv to Moscow is about 750km, so it can definitely hit strategic targets deep within Russian borders and it is domestically produced, so there are no outside restrictions whatsoever.  In fact, it's rumored that at least a couple of the recent drone strikes on Russian refineries were in fact from Ukraine missiles, not Ukrainian drones.

If Putin still wishes to continue his war, this may end very poorly for him.

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Hungary eventually goes along with renewing sanctions on Russia

Budapest demanded several names be removed from the blacklist, several diplomats told Euronews. Following intense discussions behind the scenes, a compromise was eventually reached to release four people, three of whom Hungary wanted.

    Gulbahor Ismailova, sister of oligarch Alisher Usmanov
    Viatcheslav Moshe Kantor, oligarch
    Mikhail Degtyaryov, Russia's sports minister
    Vladimir Rashevsky, businessman (removed over "weak legal case")

Not sure about this.  Unsanctioning several oligarchs seems like bad idea.

Additionally, three individuals who are dead were excluded.

Okay, that's fair.

"They came to their senses, I guess," said a senior diplomat, referring to Hungary. "They realised siding with Putin is not the best course of action."

Doubtful.  Very doubtful.  Especially considering Hungary's next statement:

Hungary argues that Donald Trump's inauguration as US president and his efforts to strike a peace deal merit a rethink of EU support for Ukraine and EU sanctions on Russia.

Counteroffer: Orban gets traded to Russia in exchange for nothing and no one cares what he has to say ever again.

Several pro-Russian politicians face widespread protests due to their unpopular stances (surprise surprise).  While the polls aren't exactly a blowout, it's close and Orban's party faces a real threat.

Btw, check out Orban's party's wikipedia page, it's wild.  Let me know if anything sounds familiar: originally center-left and liberal activist movement opposed to the communists, but drifted further and further to the right over time.  And wouldn't you know it, corruption scandals.  I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but when your whole political movement is your guy's name + ism, you're a corrupt regime.

Well, long story short, when Orban's party amassed enough power to change the constitution, they did - concentrating power and removing checks and balances (Americans take note) and was widely criticized as essentially being a "soft dictatorship".  Orban denies this, of course.  But when he describes his own vision, he certainly leans into his opposition to liberal democracy and an embrace of "illiberal democracy".  Not exactly beating the charges.

Orbán and other Fidesz politicians have prominently described their model of government as a Christian illiberal democracy.

Orbán has described liberal democracy as having undemocratic characteristics because of "being intolerant of alternative views" and being incompatible with and antithetical to Christian democracy (saying: "Christian democracy is, by definition, not liberal: it is, if you like, illiberal."). Orbán has praised Turkey, Russia, China, and Singapore as successful examples of illiberal states

Well, he's certainly right that those places are illiberal, though I very much doubt that's something to be praised.  And he's certainly trying his hardest to bring those illiberal values to as much of Europe as he possibly can.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Not the first time we've had a random quote generator as president. Raygun comes to mind. Dubya would come to mind if he had one.