Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Russian T-80 tank stockpiles run dry:

Do yourself a favor and check out the bar graph at 1min35 seconds:

Russian tanks in storage, 2021 VS 2026
313 T-55  112 (64% gone)
1822 T-62  784 (62% gone)
594  T-64  449 (24% gone)
2696  T-70  640 (76% gone)
1679 T-80  134 (92% gone)
112 T-90  ZERO (completely depleted)

There's the main reason why they're using infantry tactics.  Armor (and not just Russian, but also Ukrainian) really takes a beating anywhere near the frontlines.  Reconnaissance finds them and drones smack into them one after another.

Ukraine uses tanks somewhat differently to minimize losses - bringing in armor in fast flanking actions as needed to support infantry, quickly followed by hasty retreats, which sometimes works and sometimes doesn't work because they sometimes get disabled or destroyed while attempting to leave the battlefield.

Meanwhile, Russia just throws a brick on the pedal and charges with full gusto in a frontal assault (they'll never see it coming).  They inevitably get hit and sometimes, the other tanks have the good sense to retreat and it's not catastrophic.  Sometimes, they all get hit.  Sometimes, they charge until they get hit then try to retreat but it's too late.  Russian tanks are more likely to be disabled/destroyed on or near Ukrainian-held territory than vice versa, so the Ukrainians have a chance to capture.  Unfortunately, most of the time it's too far away to tow away safely and the Ukrainians have no choice but to finish it off.  The Russians also finish off their own tanks to deny them to their enemy.

[Cassia]

Russian T-80 tank stockpiles run dry:

Do yourself a favor and check out the bar graph at 1min35 seconds:

Russian tanks in storage, 2021 VS 2026
313 T-55  112 (64% gone)
1822 T-62  784 (62% gone)
594  T-64  449 (24% gone)
2696  T-70  640 (76% gone)
1679 T-80  134 (92% gone)
112 T-90  ZERO (completely depleted)

There's the main reason why they're using infantry tactics.  Armor (and not just Russian, but also Ukrainian) really takes a beating anywhere near the frontlines.  Reconnaissance finds them and drones smack into them one after another.

Ukraine uses tanks somewhat differently to minimize losses - bringing in armor in fast flanking actions as needed to support infantry, quickly followed by hasty retreats, which sometimes works and sometimes doesn't work because they sometimes get disabled or destroyed while attempting to leave the battlefield.

Meanwhile, Russia just throws a brick on the pedal and charges with full gusto in a frontal assault (they'll never see it coming).  They inevitably get hit and sometimes, the other tanks have the good sense to retreat and it's not catastrophic.  Sometimes, they all get hit.  Sometimes, they charge until they get hit then try to retreat but it's too late.  Russian tanks are more likely to be disabled/destroyed on or near Ukrainian-held territory than vice versa, so the Ukrainians have a chance to capture.  Unfortunately, most of the time it's too far away to tow away safely and the Ukrainians have no choice but to finish it off.  The Russians also finish off their own tanks to deny them to their enemy.

If Russia did not underestimate Ukraine, they could have launched a massive, combined air and tank attack on several fronts overwhelming Ukraine. Instead, they launched that half-assed wimpy, surgical attack on Kyiv and the airport. And for the next 4 years this stupid tactic you mentioned, that plays into the hands of FVP drones. This is the downfall of all dictators with their idiotic "yes men". Nobody challenges the leaders or strategy because when they do they fall out of windows.

[Hydra009]

Yep.  Additionally, rulers are always fighting the last war.  The 2022 invasion force would've absolutely smashed 2014 Ukrainain forces.  And they still got pretty far with what they had, to the outskirts of Kyiv.  They also overstretched the VDV in very ballsy attacks to take airports to set up airbridges.  Their loss was devaststing for Russian assault operations in the future.

Throughout the conflict, they've always had a manpower and equipment numbers advantage.  Ukrainian defense very masterfully tore apart every Russian advantage a piece at a time - navy, air, tanks, artillery, AWACS.  Unfortunately, the Ukrainians have yet to fully counter the shaheds, missile bombardments, and glide bombs.

But fortunately, Putin is a poor strategist, and so he's bleeding Russia dry trying to double down on assaults that don't work.

I read recently that Putin might try a full mobilization to make up for losses, but that has the potential to strain Russia beyond what Russians are willing to tolerate and lead to open revolt.  There is already a lot of discontent, both privately and publicly.  That's why Telegram was blocked.

[Hydra009]

Once again, Ukrainian news is overshadowed by conflict in the Middle East.

Iranian leader Ayatollah Alreadyforgotten is dead, joining a surprisingly large list of foreign leaders allied to Russia who have either died or been deposed (dictators who ruled Libya, Syria, Venezuela, now Iran).  Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

I have mixed feelings about today's news, because even though the main targets were hit, there were civilian losses and that's unacceptable.  This regime is awful and I'd love to see it dismantled and power returned to the people.  That said, it was an unprovoked attack - a long line of many in recent years, which will undoubtedly be the norm for years to come, and it won't always be dictators being attacked first.  Also, conflict in the Middle East never plays out well in the long-term and I fear we're entering a much more dangerous stage of world conflict with power vacuums and regional instability, which not long ago led to regional threats like ISIL/Daesh gaining ground.

As for how this may affect Ukraine specifically, unfortunately it's not much of a boon.  Russia no longer imports shaheds, they manufacture them domestically, so it's not looking like much is changing for Russia militarily.  But politically, this just underscores that Russia will not come to their ally's defense, so any alliance is merely one of convenience, with Moscow's needs taking priority.  Also, very powerful countries are targeting said allies, so shaking Putin's hand just puts a target on your back.  A powerful incentive for neutrality.

Worryingly, this will undoubtedly drive up oil prices, which have been very low lately.  Higher oil prices mean more profit for Putin.  Though this is dependent on how long the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed for traffic.

[Cassia]

Yeah, Ukraine should have given Trump a 747 like Qatar or provided license deals with some billion-dollar luxury hotels/apartments funded by Saudi royalty like Trump Tower Jeddah and Trump Plaza Jeddah. Then Trump will attack you enemies for you. Even worse, Putin has had Trump's back during elections. Of course, eventually the leopard will eat your face.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine did enter the mineral deal with the express purpose of giving the US a stake in the fate of the country.  I'm not sure if it actually worked or not.

[the_antithesis]

Trump probably thought there was already minerals in his ED vitamins.

[Nobody]

Making a deal with Trump is a fool's errand.

[Hydra009]

Ah yes, the world's foremost expert in international law and not killing people illegally, Vlad Putin.

[the_antithesis]

He is an expert on that stuff.