Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Russian T-80 tank stockpiles run dry:

Do yourself a favor and check out the bar graph at 1min35 seconds:

Russian tanks in storage, 2021 VS 2026
313 T-55  112 (64% gone)
1822 T-62  784 (62% gone)
594  T-64  449 (24% gone)
2696  T-70  640 (76% gone)
1679 T-80  134 (92% gone)
112 T-90  ZERO (completely depleted)

There's the main reason why they're using infantry tactics.  Armor (and not just Russian, but also Ukrainian) really takes a beating anywhere near the frontlines.  Reconnaissance finds them and drones smack into them one after another.

Ukraine uses tanks somewhat differently to minimize losses - bringing in armor in fast flanking actions as needed to support infantry, quickly followed by hasty retreats, which sometimes works and sometimes doesn't work because they sometimes get disabled or destroyed while attempting to leave the battlefield.

Meanwhile, Russia just throws a brick on the pedal and charges with full gusto in a frontal assault (they'll never see it coming).  They inevitably get hit and sometimes, the other tanks have the good sense to retreat and it's not catastrophic.  Sometimes, they all get hit.  Sometimes, they charge until they get hit then try to retreat but it's too late.  Russian tanks are more likely to be disabled/destroyed on or near Ukrainian-held territory than vice versa, so the Ukrainians have a chance to capture.  Unfortunately, most of the time it's too far away to tow away safely and the Ukrainians have no choice but to finish it off.  The Russians also finish off their own tanks to deny them to their enemy.

[Cassia]

Russian T-80 tank stockpiles run dry:

Do yourself a favor and check out the bar graph at 1min35 seconds:

Russian tanks in storage, 2021 VS 2026
313 T-55  112 (64% gone)
1822 T-62  784 (62% gone)
594  T-64  449 (24% gone)
2696  T-70  640 (76% gone)
1679 T-80  134 (92% gone)
112 T-90  ZERO (completely depleted)

There's the main reason why they're using infantry tactics.  Armor (and not just Russian, but also Ukrainian) really takes a beating anywhere near the frontlines.  Reconnaissance finds them and drones smack into them one after another.

Ukraine uses tanks somewhat differently to minimize losses - bringing in armor in fast flanking actions as needed to support infantry, quickly followed by hasty retreats, which sometimes works and sometimes doesn't work because they sometimes get disabled or destroyed while attempting to leave the battlefield.

Meanwhile, Russia just throws a brick on the pedal and charges with full gusto in a frontal assault (they'll never see it coming).  They inevitably get hit and sometimes, the other tanks have the good sense to retreat and it's not catastrophic.  Sometimes, they all get hit.  Sometimes, they charge until they get hit then try to retreat but it's too late.  Russian tanks are more likely to be disabled/destroyed on or near Ukrainian-held territory than vice versa, so the Ukrainians have a chance to capture.  Unfortunately, most of the time it's too far away to tow away safely and the Ukrainians have no choice but to finish it off.  The Russians also finish off their own tanks to deny them to their enemy.

If Russia did not underestimate Ukraine, they could have launched a massive, combined air and tank attack on several fronts overwhelming Ukraine. Instead, they launched that half-assed wimpy, surgical attack on Kyiv and the airport. And for the next 4 years this stupid tactic you mentioned, that plays into the hands of FVP drones. This is the downfall of all dictators with their idiotic "yes men". Nobody challenges the leaders or strategy because when they do they fall out of windows.

[Hydra009]

Yep.  Additionally, rulers are always fighting the last war.  The 2022 invasion force would've absolutely smashed 2014 Ukrainain forces.  And they still got pretty far with what they had, to the outskirts of Kyiv.  They also overstretched the VDV in very ballsy attacks to take airports to set up airbridges.  Their loss was devaststing for Russian assault operations in the future.

Throughout the conflict, they've always had a manpower and equipment numbers advantage.  Ukrainian defense very masterfully tore apart every Russian advantage a piece at a time - navy, air, tanks, artillery, AWACS.  Unfortunately, the Ukrainians have yet to fully counter the shaheds, missile bombardments, and glide bombs.

But fortunately, Putin is a poor strategist, and so he's bleeding Russia dry trying to double down on assaults that don't work.

I read recently that Putin might try a full mobilization to make up for losses, but that has the potential to strain Russia beyond what Russians are willing to tolerate and lead to open revolt.  There is already a lot of discontent, both privately and publicly.  That's why Telegram was blocked.