Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

I read about that.  The Russians get taken by surprise very often.  And the Ukrainians perform very well given the circumstances.  I don't think many other militaries in the world would be able to handle 1-vs-3 matchups nearly as well.  The Ukrainians are up against the standing militaries of Russia and North Korea supplied by Iran and aided by Belarus, which installed antennas and other equipment on apartment buildings to help guide shaheds.  They can attack you, but you can't attack them.  So you're fighting with one hand tied behind your back the whole time.  Not many countries would be able to handle that, either.

About Venezuela, Russian milbloggers are pretty unhappy about the Russian military aid to Venezuela given the situation in Russia:



AH-1Z is an attack helicopter.  I can neither confirm nor deny Russians claiming any of those were in Russian airspace, the only thing I know for a fact is that the Ukrainians were looking to buy some of those helicopters from the US government back in October.  It's doubtful but not impossible that some have already been delivered, either by the US or some other government.  It's also not impossible that Russia's airspace was violated - but if so, that's a seriously lacking air defense.  Imho, it's more likely a ukrainian drone doing the damage and the Russians just misidentified it or made up the whole story.

One Russian sees a seagull and tells the other one, who says it looks like an eagle.  That one says it's an eagle that looks like a plane.  That one says that it's a plane that looks like a military plane.  Before long, there's a grand tale about a thousands of F-35s flying over St Petersburg.  And Putin's general says they shot down 10,000 F-35s with 10 guys armed with AK-47s and Putin is pleased and thinks that he can conquer the world with ease.

[Hydra009]

Zelenskyy responds to Maduro news:

https://i.imgur.com/xLmmsL0.mp4

[Hydra009]

What's the term for fatwa envy but it's more like successful military operation envy?

[Hydra009]

The past few days have certainly been eventful for Ukraine and Russia.

For starters, Ukraine rang in the new year with a bang - a massive drone wave on Russia with pretty serious damages.  For example, hitting a refinery, a Shahed drone storage site, a Tor-M2 air defense system, and a fuel depot, and a command post near Avdiivka.  Ukraine has kept up the nightly drone raids, also hitting a hitting a missile factory.  There's even currently a wave of drones inbound to Moscow as I type.

Embarrassingly for Russia, a Russian truck carrying troops from Russia's 47th Missile Brigade exploded, killing personnel.  This happened in Korenovsk, just NE from Krasnodar in Russia's Krasnodar Krai region (east of Crimea).  So this was "safe" territory far from the battleground.  Still blew up.

Russia has of course also hit Ukraine with drones.  Russia struck an eco-park (zoo?), harming wildlife.  Similarly to Ukraine, they also launched a massive drone strike on New Year's Day - 205 drones inbound to Ukraine.  176 were shot down (85% shootdown rate), but 24 hit 15 different sites in Ukraine.  They also did another drone attack in Zaporizhzhia with caused a lot of damage to civilian infrastructure but thankfully didn't come with a deathtoll.  There was also an attack on Kharkiv that killed two

Each of the sides certainly have their own distinct priority when it comes to targets, with Ukraine harming the Russian war machine and Russia harming animals and people.  Both are going after that which the other loves the most.

[Hydra009]

Frontline update from UkraineMatters:

In addition to what he's saying, I note that the situation for the Russians in Kupyansk is particularly bad.

According to ISW:

Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on January 3 that there are fewer than 100 Russian servicemembers remaining in Kupyansk and that Russian Western Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev has tasked Russian forces with seizing Kupyansk by February 2026.  Trehubov stated that the remaining Russian forces are mostly hiding in basements in central and northwestern Kupyansk and that Russian forces are struggling to resupply the servicemembers with drones.

lol, good luck.

Granted, they are using gliding bombs to attack Ukrainian positions in Kupyansk and Russian troops are attempting to regroup and then conduct operations, but they had much of Kupyansk under their control previously yet they lost most of it very quickly and gain it back slowly, if at all.  It's the same story for much of the frontline, though they are advancing in some areas.

As for the war footage, I am once again taking peeks, and it's just as grisly for the Russians as it ever was.  Ukrainian drones remain very, very effective.  Also, and I earlier assumed this rather than saw it outright - Ukrainian wildlife is very well-fed.  Chewed out for insuboardination, let's say.

There was even a GoPro GoDie footage from a Russian soldier's perspective as a Ukrainian drone homed in on the vehicle his squad was in.  Everyone bailed out, he got hit, another Russian got hit, and little else happens but scanning the sky and attempting to aid the wounded in a noticeably delayed and ineffectual sort of way.  Like a kicking the boots and asking if you're okay sort of way.  The video says that ultimately 1 died and 2 were wounded.  Amateurish showing.  Second army in the world - it's possible, but only if the only two countries left are North Korea and Russia.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Russian forces have been trying to assault through gas pipelines in order to move through Ukrainian territory undetected and unattacked.

Ukraine has previously collapsed such tunnels with bombs or placed barbed wire inside the narrowest parts of such tunnels, requiring Russian soldiers to turn around, because there is no squeezing by something like that.

Lately, Ukraine has changed tactics, allowing the Russians to travel its entire length unimpeded, only to be immediately attacked by Ukrainian drones or Ukrainian infantry upon exiting.  If done quietly enough, this process has the potential to be repeatable, unlike the other two options.

Essentially, this is the 21st century warfare equivalent of sticking a shotgun beside a rat hole and being very, very patient.

[Hydra009]

Me looking at international news today:

Lots of fast-paced events going on, many of them affecting or affected by the others.  So I'm just going to have to bullet point this or I won't get done recapping till next year.

Ukraine news:

* Right now, Russian equipment on/near the Kerch bridge is under Ukrainian missile attack.  No further details atm.
* Russia attacks Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.  Russia also caused injuries and significant damage in Dnipro.
* Ukraine repelled a significant armored assault near Pokrosk.  This one is somewhat unusual because there were two tanks and two armored vehicles not just the normal unarmored vehicles.  Have no fear, there's also a recent donkey combat encounter.  Thankfully, the Ukrainian drone pilot waited for the donkey to get out of the way before finalizing the strike.
* Ukraine strikes "core" radar of Russian air defense in Donetsk, further degrading Russian s-300 effectiveness
* A mysterious fire broke out in a Russian war factory in Moscow producing fighter jet engines
* Ukrainian foreign legion to be absorbed into various Ukrainian assault regiments

Allies news:

France and UK agree to deploy troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire to discourage Russia from re-igniting the conflict.  Sweden and Belgium also want in on that, with Sweden offering to use Gripen fighter jets for air surveillance over Ukraine.  Germany says it would deploy troops as well, but to neighboring NATO territory, not inside Ukraine.  Zelensky hailed that agreement as a "huge step forward" but the devil's in the details and Ukraine still doesn't quite have ironclad guarantees.  Ukrainian media is similarly cautiously optimistic, noting that this agreement has 3 serious flaws.

Other news:

The big news of the day - US seizes two oil tankers, including one flying the Russian flag.  I saw this news story and just about fell out of my chair.  And this detail makes it even better - the one with the Russian flag was seized in the North Atlantic near Iceland and Russian military vessels were in the area, including a submarine, and just passively watched it go down.  The Kremlin is furious, but unable to do anything about it.

It certainly has been a rough time for Putin lately, seemingly with Russian ally after Russian ally imploding or otherwise being removed from Russian influence.  First, it was Syria.  Now, Venezuela.  And it looks like Iran is now in a state of serious unrest.  It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Russian international influence is fading.

And yes, I've seen the article about Russia reportedly offering to "give" Venezuela (which they don't own) to the US in exchange for Ukraine (which the US doesn't own) back in 2019.  Realpolitik cynicism writ large.  It also goes to show that the invasion wasn't a spur-of-the-moment thing.  It boils my blood how the oligarchs try to treat with each other - trading whole nations just like us plebs would trade Pokemon cards.  And considering Russia's penchant for triggering humanitarian disasters on its occupied territory, it's incredibly morally reprehensible that this was even offered.  If actual US territory were treated this casually and carelessly and without basic respect, thems would be fighting words.  I do not the expect the Ukrainians to feel any differently.

Trump greenlights bipartisan sanctions bill against countries buying cheap Russian oil

[Hydra009]

Looks like things have really taken a turn in Iran.  What little I've been able to see are chaotic scenes of mass anti-regime demonstrations.  And yes, there's violence, but it's hard to tell how widespread it is.  The internet is clamped down tighter than even in Moscow.

I think Russia made a smart move by making Shaheds domestically (it's cheaper).  I hope they stocked up on Iranian missiles because I wouldn't count on Iran's military support much longer.

I saw a video a while back that seems prophetic now - authoritarian regimes appear to be resilient and enduring, and it'd be understandable to conclude that nothing will ever change - but they're also very brittle - they break suddenly and with little warning.  The given example was the Soviet Union - life goes on as normal until one day, you're watching Swan Lake on TV.

Other contenders include Libya under Gaddfi and Syria under Assad, though that one was a protracted war with a confusing web of alliances.  The Syria situation appeared to be a stalemate until the rebels got the upper hand in the east and there was a sudden huge rebellion in the previously Assad-loyal south.  Afterwards, the regime toppled swiftly.  So swiftly, Assad barely escaped.

It's not impossible for such a situation to happen in Iran.  I'm sure Putin has a helicopter at the ready, just in case.

[Cassia]

Putin's little axis is melting.

African guys say they are offered good paying jobs in Russia. Turns out it was fighting in Ukraine. I'd call bullshit, but this guy is extra stoopid. Mercenaries are fighting for Russia from 36 African countries.

[Hydra009]

Yeah, I don't know why they don't figure out that when something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  Especially when Russia has been luring people over there with this bait-and-switch routine for years now.  I guess it's a combination of naivete and being really hard up for cash.

[Hydra009]

4 killed in Kyiv from Russian double-tap strike

Ukraine hits power plant in Belgorod, causing blackouts for the region

Ukraine strikes Russian oil tanker in the Black Sea.  It's currently anchored at the Black Sea port town of İnebolu (Turkey) where Turkish authorities are conducting a damage assessment.

[Hydra009]

Russia hit Lviv with an Oreshnik ballistic missile, causing heavy damage (Lviv is in western Ukraine, not far from the Polish border)

Also, Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv caused disruptions in hot water and heat.  Kyiv's major urged residents to temporarily relocate until such services are restored.

This while Putin tells Trump that he only wants peace.

[Hydra009]

I coulda sworn the seized Russian oil tanker was a repost, but the previous one was Bella and this one is Olina.

Yikes.  I have no idea why African mercenaries join the Russians.  They have this guy rigged up as some sort of suicide bomber.  The Russian strategy has always been to send some expendables out in front to soak up enemy fire while the better-equipped forces attack the flanks.  This appears to be consistent with that strategy.

[Hydra009]

Not sure if this needs its own thread, but things are rapidly escalating in Iran.

Given the internet outages, details are scarce, but here's what we know for sure: at least two hospitals are overwhelmed with injuries, and at least 51 protestors have been killed, as well as 21 pro-regime security forces.

Iranian state media has certainly not endeared itself to anyone by threatening protestors.  They had a guy on TV with one of the most punchable faces I've ever seen outside of Congress and with really wacky body language - leaning while hunched over, eyes bulging out, trying to look threatening and condescending at the same time - tell parents to not let their kids protest because they could be killed, "we know how to deal with hooligans" or something.  Made me want to throw a brick through his house and I'm on the other side of the world.

The protestors don't appear cowed at all, and there's footage of them dancing around a fire, burning vehicles, even occasionally attacking police without warning.

The Iranian regime ludicrously claims that the protestors are just trying to please Trump, which is so completely wrong that it's obviously a lie designed to vilify the protestors by association.  While it is true that Trump doesn't like the regime and the protestors don't like the regime, it doesn't follow that they're in cahoots.  In fact, the protests happened at the son of the deposed shah's urging and the protestors frequently shout "Javid Shah!" (a statement that carries the death penalty in Iran) so I'm pretty confident that is about the Islamic Revolution and Shah rule, not Trump - though that guy tries to insert himself into anything, willing or not.

Ayatollah Khamenei went on to say "The Islamic Republic came to power through the blood of several hundred thousand honourable people" - which I'm sure was meant in a noble, 'look how much we've sacrificed' way but comes across to me as 'look how many bodies this regime was built on' sort of way.  But even if you take it in a positive way, if all that sacrifice buys you is a brutal regime that attacks women for dressing in a way they don't like and murders gay people for having relations they don't like, just let it burn.