Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

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I keep thinking if this war strains the average Russian, maybe it will end. The people will rise and overthrow.

Possibly.  But from what I've seen, there are still only beginnings of that process.  It'd be 3-5 years for it to come be a serious threat for Putin.  So, don't count on it in the foreseeable future.

[Hydra009]

Some not great news, but it is war, and bad things happen in war.

This one makes my blood boil.  Russia is reportedly sending some of the abducted Ukrainian children to North Korea

Sanctions should stay in place and trade shouldn't ever be normalized until every single Ukrainian is returned.  I'd like to say more than that but there aren't yet words invented to carry my anger.  Barbaric, disgusting, cruel, inhuman.  That's a fraction of a fraction of what I'd call this.  Whatever tragic end ultimately happens to Putin won't be a fraction of the pain he has caused others.

The silver lining is that Melania successfully got 7 abducted Ukrainian kids back home.  And not for the first time.  Props to her.

China is mass-producing a new dirt cheap hypersonic missile.  $70k usd.  As we have seen, missile barrages are the name of the game in wars of attrition.  I would be very, very surprised if a good portion of these don't fall into Russian hands.  It also gives me pause with Taiwan.

In any rate, it's almost a foregone conclusion that China will invade Taiwan, and the lessons from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though very different in its particulars, are being taken to heart.  Expect a strong emphasis on drones and missiles.  The West had better prepare accordingly.

And lastly, five drones were spotted near Zelenskyy's flight path to Ireland's Dublin airport

Their range and loitering time indicate they were of a sophisticated type and flown by experienced users, sources said.

While it may or may not have been an assassination attempt, it was definitely an attempt to disrupt Zelenskyy's flight and intimidate Ukraine's supporters.  There's a very short list of countries with the means, motive, and opportunity to pull off a stunt like that.  In fact, it only matches one country's MO of hybrid warfare attacks.

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UN resolution calling for immediate return of abducted Ukrainian children

91 votes in favor, 12 against, and 57 abstentions.  Even Hungary and the United States were in favor.

The countries voting against returning abducted children to their parents ("are we the baddies?") are a real who's who of Russian puppet states and/or poor countries under Russian influence:  Belarus (no surprise there), Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cuba, North Korea, Eritrea, Iran, Mali, Nicaragua, Niger, Russia, Sudan.  Remind me about this vote the next time there's some sort of horrible natural disaster or civil war and they call out for humanitarian aid.  Shoulda been nicer.  Shoulda been a lot nicer.

[Hydra009]

Putin is strangely fixated on Odessa, but his dreams of conquering that were scuttled when his landing ships blew up and when the Russians were pushed back from Kherson.  I want to know why.  On one hand, it's obvious that Russia wants to completely cut Ukraine off from access to the sea.  But they also seem intent on linking up with the Russians in Moldova.  For what purpose?

[Hydra009]

Ukraine destroyed a Russian Mig-29 and a radar in Crimea

 Ukraine hit Russia's Syzran oil refinery .  Ukraine is really going all-out on Russian oil infrastructure.  At least that's one sanction that won't be bypassed.  Annual capacity of 8.5 million tons of oil, so it's no small target.  Hopefully, this one knocks it offline indefinitely.

There was also a pretty funny story told by Ukraine's 1st Separate Assault Regiment "Da Vinci" near Pokrovsk.  They say that they hit a Russian soldier hiding in a building with a fpv drone and then a Russian got on the radio and complained about "unfair" fighting, insisting that they meet face to face.  The let's call it a "gentlemen's duel" offer was ignored, and the Ukrainians got a laugh out of that one.  That guy has some serious Feyd-Rautha vibes.

His "military" bombs indiscriminately, hunts civilians, tortures civilians, shoots animals like horses for fun, cruelly tapes mice to their FPVs, etc, etc.  An honorable duel is beyond their ability, and certainly beyond their reputation.  Besides, the Ukrainians are always outnumbered.  So fighting on even terms doesn't make practical sense.

For the Ukrainians, this is simultaneously an invasion of their land and an infestation upon it.  Such problems have not traditionally been worked on with an eye for fairness for the pest.