Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Cassia]

Iraqi insurgents had way better plans than that attack. Russians just using their bodies to expend Ukrainian ammo. 

[Hydra009]

Iraqi insurgents had way better plans than that attack. Russians just using their bodies to expend Ukrainian ammo. 

The insurgents had much more motivation.  And the Iraqi army (not the insurgents, I'm talking Baathists) had similar equipment as the Russians do now (granted the Russians are much more advanced in some areas - surveillance/radar, electronic warfare, drones, ballistic missiles, etc - but they also use T-62s, MT-LBs, Grads, AK-74s, etc)

The Iraqi army was crushed of course by a coalition of the most advanced Western powers and pretty much an overkill of land, sea, and airpower that no nation could've possibly withstood.  The Ukrainians have some of that equipment right now - a tiny sliver of it - and they're also creating highways of death, albeit with somewhat high losses themselves.  Punching hard despite being at a disadvantage from the onset.

[Cassia]

The insurgents had much more motivation.  And the Iraqi army (not the insurgents, I'm talking Baathists) had similar equipment as the Russians do now (granted the Russians are much more advanced in some areas - surveillance/radar, electronic warfare, drones, ballistic missiles, etc - but they also use T-62s, MT-LBs, Grads, AK-74s, etc)

The Iraqi army was crushed of course by a coalition of the most advanced Western powers and pretty much an overkill of land, sea, and airpower that no nation could've possibly withstood.  The Ukrainians have some of that equipment right now - a tiny sliver of it - and they're also creating highways of death, albeit with somewhat high losses themselves.  Punching hard despite being at a disadvantage from the onset.

You would think staying alive would be one good source of motivation.

Just thinking about what could happen..maybe try to understand the probabilities. What do the military/economic experts think?

a) Trump gets elected....(1) Does he kill all aid? (2) Does he even help his buddy win?
b) Putin dies for some reason and his successor(s) (1) negotiates in good faith for some sort of settlement -or- (2) they just continue the war till (c)
c) The war drags on and eventually (1) Ukraine somehow exhausts Russian capacity -or- (2) Ukraine gets exhausted and capitulates.
d) Many other nations get involved and we have (1) conventional WWIII -or- nuclear end of the world as we know it.
 

[Hydra009]

In any scenario, Russia would be exhausted first - the Ukrainians have consistently destroyed much more Russian equipment and killed more Russian soldiers than vice versa.  There's only one way that plays out, it's just a matter of how quickly it happens.

Trump would kill aid and pressure Ukraine to give up territory for "peace".  The EU is working on ways to continue supplying Ukraine without the US, but they have their own snakes to deal with and not just Orban.  Ukraine would definitely not receive a NATO invite under Trump.  Ukraine would almost certainly have to accept some sort of ceasefire.  Russia would almost certainly reignite the war during or shortly after Trump leaves office.  Ironically, this "peace now" approach would generate much more death in the long term.  It would also create a permanent diaspora of Ukrainians.

A Harris victory would maintain US aid for Ukraine and Russia would undoubtedly lose in that scenario.  Especially given sizable loans for Ukraine from frozen Russian funds.  Even without a game-changing new weapon.  Russian capabilities have been flagging for a while now and they will become unable to continue the war and would be forced to abandon large swathes of Ukraine in pretty much the same way Kherson was abandoned.

There are some people who insist that Putin would use nukes in such a scenario.  I am not among them.  There is fighting in Kursk and there are no nukes.  Threatening nukes is free but using nukes is very, very costly, hence Putin's clear preference so far.  I do not expect this to abruptly change.

It is possible that both North Korea and South Korea become embroiled in Ukraine or come to blows on their own peninsula.  This would almost certainly drag the US and possibly China into it.  In that case, we would have a full-blown WWIII scenario.  I'm positive the West would survive, but the deathtoll would make the current conflict look like a schoolyard fight.  Not to mention crashing international markets and disrupting international trade in a major way.  This scenario is pretty much the bleakest outcome possible.

[Hydra009]

Nearly 200 North Korean defectors currently living in South Korea want to be deployed to Ukraine to wage psychological warfare on the North Koreans near Kursk region

"We're ready to go wherever needed to work as psychological warfare agents – through loudspeaker broadcasts, distributing leaflets, and even acting as interpreters," he said.

...and as a last resort, K-Pop.

Drawing on their military backgrounds, this band of ex-soldiers – each with seven to 10 years of military experience – aim to leverage their insider knowledge of North Korea's military to disrupt and demoralise the troops sent to fight in Ukraine, exploiting their psychological vulnerabilities.

"We are all military veterans who understand North Korea's military culture and psychological state better than anyone else," Ahn Chan-il, a 69-year-old defector and member of the group, told This Week in Asia.

Nice.

Also, incredibly handy to have for interrogations, assuming North Korean soldiers survive long enough to be interrogated.  Russians training North Koreans is like the blind leading the blind.  After whatever passes for training, the Russians will send out the North Koreans into a war unlike anything they've ever seen - the closest analog is World War I.  This isn't the sort of conflict where soviet-style tactics work well, hence Russia's need for warm bodies.  Get spotted by drone or satellite or other surveillance and it's all over.

And I don't even want to think about what sort of equipment the North Koreans will receive.  I'm not even sure you can do worse than the Russian standard, but I think they'll try.

I'm very doubtful that the North Koreans will have much combat ability, but it might be useful for Russia simply to have the numbers on their side.  It's tough to tell how this'll play out.

[Hydra009]

A Russian woman put out a complaint video (these are very popular in Russia now) that she urged her son to join the Russian military in order "to be a man" - in 2023 no less - and he was killed in action in Kursk region in 2024.  She wonders why he wasn't evacuated in time to save his life, though she stops short from laying blame at any one individual.  She says that she's disabled and with a young child and now has no one to support her or her child.

I don't want to kick someone while they're down, but the naivety is off the charts.  It beggars belief how people can lack foresight this much.

[Hydra009]

Monthly Russian losses 41,980 (killed and wounded)



Previously, they were recruiting 30k new troops per month - just enough to not run a deficit but not enough to significantly expand manpower.  Unless they've stepped up recruiting significantly since then, they're definitely running a deficit (read: slowly running out of troops).  No wonder they need 10k North Korean troops.  They need that every month indefinitely just to keep troop levels stable.

[Cassia]

'Lil Steven hanging out in his Russian backyard.

[the_antithesis]

I can hear that chair creaking.

[Hydra009]

[Cassia]

Another low-skill Russian attempt without air support.

[Hydra009]

Another low-skill Russian attempt without air support.

Unfortunately, neither side can expect much air support because of the deployment of strong AA guns by both sides.

Russia mainly uses theirs to drop glide bombs on Ukrainian positions or fire cruise missiles from far away so as to not risk their aircraft (aircraft losses cannot be easily replaced due to sanctions)

Ukraine often uses theirs to intercept incoming drones and cruise missiles.  After years of mostly defensive use, they're now finally dropping glide bombs as well.

[Cassia]

Unfortunately, neither side can expect much air support because of the deployment of strong AA guns by both sides.

Russia mainly uses theirs to drop glide bombs on Ukrainian positions or fire cruise missiles from far away so as to not risk their aircraft (aircraft losses cannot be easily replaced due to sanctions)

Ukraine often uses theirs to intercept incoming drones and cruise missiles.  After years of mostly defensive use, they're now finally dropping glide bombs as well.

Shows you the difference right there. If the US was invading Ukraine, stealth bombers and fighters would have eliminated the anti-air defense straight away.

[Hydra009]

Russia has never had the knowhow or immense funding required for truly overwhelming sea and air power like the US.

Soviet/Russian doctrine is a heavy reliance on artillery, then massed armored assault, which also works, especially against a much weaker foe.

The current meatwave tactics are due to severe attrition from artillery duels and the armor getting hit with mines, manpads, and drones.

[Hydra009]

Orcban says Europe cannot bear the crushing financial cost of the Ukrainian war and will "rethink" its support for Ukraine should Trump get power again (their frequent communications with Putin and trips to Russia are unrelated)

Conversely, actual experts say that stopping aid would be 10-20 times more expensive than the current plan

If Russia is allowed to occupy Ukraine, that obviously won't be the end of things.  Either the Ukrainians stop Russian tanks there or Polish and Moldovan and Romanian people have to contend with Russian tanks at their border.  Building up a response to that requires money.

Also, Europe and the US would have to contend with a permanent diaspora of Ukrainians - neither of who would enjoy that outcome.

And frankly, it's not great for destabilizing event after destabilizing event to occur near authoritarian powers with democracies taking in the refugees and footing the bill.  As we have seen along Poland's border, this is also deliberately done as a sort of hybrid attack.  Maybe this time, the authoritarians suffer instability and the democracies band together to stabilize each other.  It won't be easy, but we've seen this play out before and it's very costly - both in lives and financially.