Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Cassia]

China's dictator knows he can't trust Putin, but they will use him in his time of need. This war probably gives China something to chew on before they go in for Taiwan. It is so unfortunate the US elected MAGA-morons to congress.

Also, China watching Iran blow its Islamic wad for no effect. In fact, I read some of their munitions may have landed in Iran, LOL.

[Hydra009]

Yeah, Iran's missile attack was embarrassing and shot down by several countries.

Though I worry that such failures serve as examples for China to act more skillfully than to call it off entirely.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine deploys drones designed to target Russian anti-air

They hope to clear the way for Ukrainian jets to start dropping glide bombs on Russian positions, much like Russia has done to them.

[Hydra009]

Don't like how Ukraine is doing things?  Give them an alternative.  But if you're doing very little and criticizing, why should they listen?

[Hydra009]

Oopsie:  Russian bomb lands in Russia, all drones shot down  Iran isn't the only one with disappointing long-range attacks

$100 million dollar Russian radar was destroyed by 7 Ukrainian drones

The radar, valued at $100 million, was hit by seven aircraft-type kamikaze drones. According to sources, the Nebo-U complex is no longer operational and has "likely turned into a colander."

God I love the Ukrainian sense of humor.  This is also the second one Ukraine has destroyed.

The source added that the destruction of this radar has limited Russian troops' ability to detect air targets along the northern border of Ukraine.

"The radar blackout for the Russians will assist our troops in conducting reconnaissance, launching drones, and making better use of army aviation in this area," the source told Kyiv Post.

Ukraine's setting the stage for increased use of drones/aviation, which will make things very exciting in June when they get F-16s as well as right now.

Russian command post in Crimea hit

Ukraine spots new "cope tortoise" armor configuration again.  No word yet if this one also got blown up, but this configuration appears to attempt to reduce the effectiveness of drone strikes at the cost of literally everything else - it's big and boxy and clumsy and slow - like hitting the broad side of a barn - a tempting target for pretty much anything but drones.  I'd love to see what happens when a Stugna or artillery round hits it.  Hopefully, I'm not kept waiting for long.

[Hydra009]

A tale in two parts:

6 days ago:  Invaders move around ammo at Dzhankoi - the northern part of Crimea - due to fears of shelling and monitoring by partisans (This information was brought to you by partisans, so...)

Yesterday: Kaboom at ammo near Dzhankoi

Fun fact: not only did the partisans know where the ammo originally was, they saw the convoy moving the ammo and where it was moved to.

There's footage of it on Telegram.  It's like the sun rising in the middle of the night, with loud "popcorn" sounds throughout.  The Ukrainians must've hit a big batch.

Update: there's a photo of the aftermath - lots of burnt-out wreckage.  Hard to make out.  There are claims that at least one Russian air defense was destroyed in the fire, but nothing is confirmed yet.

[Hydra009]

There's footage of the new cope tortoise. Frustratingly, Ukrainian artillery shots just barely missed it several times and afaik, it is still 100% intact.  It's not very stealthy, so hopefully Ukraine tracks down its base and blows it up there like they did the last one.

[Cassia]

There's footage of the new cope tortoise. Frustratingly, Ukrainian artillery shots just barely missed it several times and afaik, it is still 100% intact.  It's not very stealthy, so hopefully Ukraine tracks down its base and blows it up there like they did the last one.

I saw they had installed cages that limit the turret arc. Desperation.

[Cassia]

It is ironic that the regions that may have actually had a significant percentage of folks who would prefer to be part of Russia are largely destroyed by Russia. Anybody who was on the fence then probably hates Russia now. If you want to create a unified country, just try to invade them. Now Russia will be sanctioned for decades.

China made that big turn-around by being part of the world and its trade and by respecting other nations. If the CCP is so worried about their relevance that they attack Tiawan, they will be sanctioned back into their past. Sanctions work slow. But they will wreck your economy. Look at Cuba and N Korea.

[Unbeliever]

I saw they had installed cages that limit the turret arc. Desperation.

I just saw a picture of what's being called a "turtle tank," with a makeshift metal roof on top! It might work, it might not work, but at least it's entertaining! 🤣

[Hydra009]

I just saw a picture of what's being called a "turtle tank," with a makeshift metal roof on top! It might work, it might not work, but at least it's entertaining! 🤣

The second one is combined with an advanced anti-drone electronic warfare module and serves as a vanguard for the convoy.  The concept makes intuitive sense, but the implementation is kinda rough.  To be honest, I'm kinda scared that something like this could work and the Russians could have much more success with their convoys.

Right now, somewhere around half of all Russian vehicle losses are due to drones.  If they find a way to counter Ukrainian drones, that gives them a huge change in fortunes.

[Hydra009]

Aftermath of ammo explosion near Dzhankoi airbase:



Zelenskyy confirmed the strike and NASA fire tracker detected 6 fires going on at the base overnight.

"About 30 Russian servicemen were killed and about 80 were wounded at the airfield in Dzhankoy," a Crimean-based Telegram channel called Crimean Wind reported on Wednesday. Crimean Wind is a pro-Ukrainian monitoring group that focuses on Crimea and generally offers reliable information.

I wasn't kidding about the "sunrise in the middle of the night" description.

[Hydra009]

Bombers away:  Russian bomber factory in Tartarstan hit by Ukrainian drones

That's roughly 1300km from Ukraine - closer to Kazakhstan than Ukraine - so it's anyone's guess how Ukrainian drones managed to strike a target so far away.  Russian media claims that it was a converted Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat - basically a Cessna - that did it.  The Kremlin certainly has a vulnerability when it comes to Cessnas.

Russian bomber crashes in the Stavropol Krai Region (just north of Georgia, between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea).  It stayed level to the horizon but did a tight corkscrew path down to the ground while on fire.

This crash is important because that bomber had recently fired missiles at Ukraine.  Karma.

Moscow says a malfunction caused the crash, and that seems plausible.  Still, it might be a good idea to check in with the anti-air crews just in case.  Rouse the sleeping ones to take over for the drunk ones.  Sleep it off in shifts, like a proper military.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine claims they shot down the crashed bomber the same way they shot down the A-50 AWACS (they claim they shot down the A-50 with Soviet-produced S-200 anti-air)

While Russia's malfunction claim is plausible, it's also possible that it was indeed shot down.  We'll know with more certainty if this becomes a more commonplace thing.

[Hydra009]

Another one bites the dust:  Ukraine eliminates Russian commander