Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Russia no longer transports weapons to frontline on Crimean bridge due to repeated strikes

Sadly, my dream is dashed - the accursed bridge is unlikely to blow up while a giant convoy of tanks and SPGs roll across it, the structure buckling under them as they momentarily pause in midair before pinwheeling down in a shower of debris and pyrotechnics, falling down, down, DOWN into the frigid depths below.  Even worse, the Russians are building a rail line to lessen the need for a bridge at all.

And the fact that they're willing to go through the expense of building a rail line through Ukrainian territory should make it pretty clear that they're in it for the long haul and they don't intend to leave.

[Hydra009]

France to deliver 78 more Caesar howitzers to Ukraine

[Hydra009]

Poland doubles its funding of Czech ammo initiative

[Hydra009]

War strain:  Putin mulls tax hike to fund war

The war costs an estimated $300 million usd a day and that money has to come from somewhere.

Russia currently has 13% flat tax - a system the oligarchs enjoy immensely - but Putin is considering changing that to a progressive tax, where the oligarchs would presumably pay more.  Color me doubtful on that.

[Hydra009]

Russian milbloggers complain that Ukrainians publish inaccurate maps, which then are copied by Russians, leading their forces into ambushes

Did The Art of War ever get a Russian translation??

[Hydra009]

In the wake of the Moscow terrorist attack, Russian discrimination of Central Asians on the rise

[Hydra009]

The exact locations of all Russian electrical substations powering rail lines near and into Ukraine have been published

Poorly guarded, moderately-high cost (around 6-10 million dollars a pop), somewhat disruptive if they were to shut down.  It would be a real shame if something were to happen to them.  It would be especially bad if such calamity were to befall the rail line during an especially critical time, like during particularly heavy use or during a critical phase of the war.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine confirms that Russia shot down its own su-27 fighter over Crimea



The Russian military was at "heightened combat readiness" at the time, which I suppose is some sort of drug slang.  "What air defense doing?!" indeed.

[Dark Lightning]

Ya know, the US has electronics on both ends of pretty much every system. "Is that aircraft one of mine? I won't shoot it down!". Shit still happens, though. I remember how concerned the US was with the Russians, but at that time, they may have been worthy adversaries. After the dissolution of the USSR, the US bought large quantities of reactor-grade uranium from them to keep it from falling into enemy (adjacent unstable states (x'stans) with even less scruples against use- if one can imagine that). The USSR uses(d) Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors, which as the U238 fissions, yields an equivalent amount of plutonium, which is bomb material. It is, of course, one nasty chemical and physical mess to separate out, as one might imagine.

[Hydra009]

Czechia's shell-sourcing plan has improved - the existing plan of 800k shells followed by 700k shells had increased to 1 million and 700k, and is expected to start shipping in April instead June, so it'll be at the frontline much sooner.

[Hydra009]

The Russians shot down their own missile

Seriously, what air defense doing?

[Hydra009]

Russia launched a major massed armor assault near Tonenke, just west of Adviivka.  Possibly the largest single armored assault of the war so far - 36 tanks and 12 IFVs participated.

Any guesses to how it turned out?

FPV drones were hard at work and the Russians suffered heavy casualties - 12 tanks (1/3 of the total) and 8 IFVs (2/3 of the total) were lost.  Ukraine hasn't released footage of it yet, but they did show a photo of the aftermath - a bunch of armored vehicles abandoned/destroyed (slightly misleading since some destroyed Ukrainian vehicles are in that photo as well, but from a previous engagement, this engagement didn't feature Ukrainian vehicles, only drones, afaik).

The only video of that engagement that I know of is an abandoned T-90 turned into an improvised BBQ grill by a drone dropping a grenade down the hatch.  That tank is absolutely covered in reactive armor and it didn't matter one bit because of the open hatch.

[Unbeliever]

I guess the hatch was left open because it's hard to breath in there. 🤔

[Hydra009]

I guess the hatch was left open because it's hard to breath in there. 🤔

In a combat situation, the hatches are usually closed.  But otherwise, it gets incredibly uncomfortable and the crew leaves the hatches open.  And during an emergency evacuation, the hatches are almost always left open - not enough time or presence of mind to care about something like that.  Cue the dozens of Ukrainian videos of dropping grenades into open hatches or expertly flying a kamikaze drone inside.

[Hydra009]

Also, Russia demands that Ukraine arrest its own SBU head, which is a bit like Hitler demanding that FDR arrest his own cabinet while the US was officially at war with Germany.  I mean, you can ask, but that's unlikely to go anywhere.

Generally speaking, countries that you're currently at war with are no longer willing to entertain demands, so this sort of demand-making is a bit unusual.  There's a reason why in Civilization games, once you're at war with another country, you can't make any demands of them without a ceasefire deal first (in simple terms:  you can't barter with someone you're trying to kill)