Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Russia is gearing up for future conflicts, not just Ukraine

A number of Western leaders have warned of the long-term threat Russia's expansionism poses to NATO countries. Polish President Andrzej Duda said on March 19 that Russia may attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027. Poland's national security agency has previously estimated that Russia could attack NATO in less than 36 months.

Polish assessments fall in line with assessments made Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, who estimated on Feb. 9 that Russia may attack NATO within three to five years.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that NATO must prepare itself for a confrontation against Russia "that could last decades."

Russia has shifted to a wartime economy and planned for protracted war, which makes sense given their misadventures in Ukraine.  But let's say there's a ceasefire in Ukraine tomorrow.  Well, Russian war factories would not shut down but keep producing tanks and shells and missiles.  Putin would not suddenly change his hawkish stance.  And besides, Russia - an ally of Iran and North Korea - no longer truly has a peaceful path on the world stage, but instead one of threats and confrontation.  This means either a state of tension like on the Korean peninsula or full-scale war.

And this time, Putin knows that he has to take territory quickly and ruthlessly lest he get bogged down again, and several of Russia's neighbors are vulnerable to such an overwhelming assault.  While it is true that NATO members are theoretically protected by Article 5, I've sometimes wondered if many nations would truly honor these commitments if the country in question was seemingly already lost, it would mean a high number of casualties, and Russia credibly threatened with nukes any NATO country that intervened.  I truly hope it doesn't come to that, but it's impossible to rule out.  And let's just say that Putin is currently testing Western countries' commitments to its allies - "we're with Ukraine all the way" is sometimes more slogan than reality.

This sort of scenario seems strange given that Russia is currently fighting within its own borders, but recall that Russia was fighting Chechens within Russia's internationally-recognized borders - eventually won, then sent Chechens to invade Ukraine.

Of course, all this is moot if Ukraine defeats Russian forces, takes back its territory, and Putin's regime collapses.

[Cassia]

France, Poland, Sweden, Finland and many Baltic states certainly seem to think Russia is going to be a long-term threat. Meanwhile a third or more of the US and a bunch of MAGA legislators actually embrace Russia's anti-LGBTQ stance and pro-church antics. I saw media explaining that a few "brilliant" American families actually left the US for Russia and, well, it isn't what they thought.

[Hydra009]

France, Poland, Sweden, Finland and many Baltic states certainly seem to think Russia is going to be a long-term

Yes.  And they would know better than the US.  They have long histories with Russia and know what kind of person Putin is much better than American politicians.

Meanwhile a third or more of the US and a bunch of MAGA legislators actually embrace Russia's anti-LGBTQ stance and pro-church antics. I saw media explaining that a few "brilliant" American families actually left the US for Russia and, well, it isn't what they thought.

The "pro-church" thing kinda throws me for a loop.  Do conservatives think we're lacking for churches in the US?  Or all sorts of stuff catering to very niche religious groups?  Or do they think that people "of faith" should be running the show?  Because lots of other countries are already like that and not one is what almost anyone would consider to be a nice place to live.

There was an amusing article about a conservative Canadian family who fled to Russia to "escape LGBT ideology" (which seems like an extreme measure to avoid the occasional rainbow flag) and were not happy with the result.  Strange that they don't like living in a dictatorship but work tirelessly at creating such a "paradise" here.

[Hydra009]

Belgorod residents claim that the pro-Putin Russians are bombing villages to deny them to anti-Putin Russians

Absolutely crazy.  Just bombard it all and rule the ashes?  It's one thing to ruin another country, but to ruin your own?  I can't think of a more wasteful way to retake territory than saturation bombardment.  But those are the tactics the Russian military knows and has used successfully in Ukraine.  This will also work in time, but at enormous cost - every shell that lands on Russian land doesn't land on Ukraine, every soldier fighting in Belgorod is not fighting in Ukraine, and every civilian evacuated from Belgorod is not contributing, etc.

[Hydra009]

EU leaders agree in principle to divert interest from frozen Russian funds to Ukraine

[Hydra009]

Russia managed to sink their own fishing vessel in the Baltic sea, killing 3 crew members.  History rhymes

Edit - He dissed the Electoral College system, and rightly so.  It is strange!  And purposefully designed so that election victory and popular mandate are not necessarily linked, which is incredibly problematic/dangerous for obvious reasons.

[Hydra009]

What an crazy day!  Buckle up, cause there's a lot to cover:

Russians fund Ukrainian drones  Ummm...thanks?  Some of these donations might be a symbolic way of protesting the war, but afaik, a lot of these are by mistake - both sides try to appeal for drone help in a variety of languages without being too specific about the exact intent, so people see "3rd battalion needs your help to buy 3 drones and a vehicle!" on their feeds and naturally, there's a fair amount of mistaken identity and it cuts both ways.

Russia strikes Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant

Things aren't great at the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant, either.

There has been a flurry of articles claiming that the US urged Ukraine not to attack Russian oil refineries, but Ukraine denies this, calling it "fake information".

The Russians have been bombing residential buildings, hospitals, power plants, grain silos, farms, schools, churches, markets, bus stops, and the occasional military target for the past 2 years.  If you want to tell the Ukrainians what they can and cannot do as the bombs fall in Kyiv and Kharkiv and Odessa, be my guest.  If I were sending equipment to Ukraine, I wouldn't ask any questions at all and trust that the Ukrainians know best how to protect themselves.  They certainly know better than I do.

And last but not least, a grisly terrorist attack in Moscow killed at least 60.  This is a fast-moving story with a LOT of speculation.  What we do know for sure is that the US warned of such an attack about two weeks ago.  I wonder what exactly prompted this warning.  Another thing I know for sure is that Russia is preparing another round of mobilization, though I can't say for sure if it's because of the election outcome or due to dropping recruitment rates, but this terrorist attack seems like a remarkably convenient way to push the populace to be more favorable towards a war that has recently declined in popularity substantially after the fighting spilled over into Russian land.

[Unbeliever]

I saw a headline (haven't yet read the story, though) that says ISIS has claimed responsibility for the Moscow attack. Don't know why ISIS would do such a thing, but at this point, anything is possible.

[Hydra009]

I saw a headline (haven't yet read the story, though) that says ISIS has claimed responsibility for the Moscow attack. Don't know why ISIS would do such a thing, but at this point, anything is possible.

Yes, I saw that, too.

Specifically, ISIS-K.  The US government allegedly has intel confirming their involvement.  ISIS-K is also suspected in the terrorist attack in Iran, a key ally of Russia.  I won't speculate on motives, but I will note ISIS-K's list of adversaries involve al-Qaeda, US, China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UK, Australia, and Canada.  They don't particularly seem like team players.

And this may be relevant - two weeks ago, Russian FSB found an ISIS cell somewhat close to Moscow and thwarted its plans to attack a synagogue.  The FSB said they were from the Afghan branch of ISIS, which is ISIS-K.

[Hydra009]

Congress approves military aid for...Baltic countries

Granted, they need it.  But you know who else needs it?  The country currently being invaded and bombed!

[Hydra009]

Some kabooms in Crimea today.  I hope the Russian "decoy" paintings are up to snuff.



That super angular abstract art piece that looks nothing like a submarine totally fooled me into thinking it was an actual submarine.  Plus, it helps that it's obviously over dry land, which is where one naturally expects a submarine to be.  I swear, the tires-as-improvised-armor guy came up with this one.

[Hydra009]

Putin: "We can blame it on Ukraine...this is something they'd do...they may as well have done it...*gleefully* they DID do it!"

[Hydra009]

Stormy weather:  Ukraine's Crimea attack bears fruit

Ukraine struck a naval communication hub, naval infrastructure, and apparently a warehouse full of missiles and artillery shells (locals reported a gigantic explosion)

Ukraine also hit the landing ships Azov and Yamal!  🥳

The Black Sea Fleet Remnants just got much more remnantier.  Less than half the landing ships remain afloat.

[Hydra009]

Russian losses have also been high lately after a slight lull.





Troop losses are back to 1000/day.  Very high artillery losses.

[Hydra009]

In addition to the two landing ships, Ukraine may have alao hit the reconnaissance vessel Ivan Khurs