Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Early on in the war, a tiny Russian kid was bullied by much bigger kids for his yellow-blue backpack, clearly bought prior to the war.  Logic played second fiddle to emotionalism.  That mentality exists all over Russia, from the lowest serf to the head tsar.

Russians, who have finally figured out that the blitzkrieg 3-day special operation isn't going well and is increasingly splashing back into their own borders, are searching for someone to blame.  And the obvious culprit is still politically untouchable (for now), so they pounce on each other and exhibit paranoia and delusional thinking regularly.

[the_antithesis]

Give them all guns so they can shoot themselves in the foot.

[Hydra009]

Give them all guns so they can shoot themselves in the foot.

Or just slap Ukrainian flag stickers on their storefronts and watch them get trashed by angry Z-ombies.

[Shiranu]

Or just slap Ukrainian flag stickers on their storefronts and watch them get trashed by angry Z-ombies.

1. Load the drone Vidsyich (a Ukrainian engineered piece of machinery) with all sorts of Ukrainian paraphernalia; "I love Ukraine!" hearts, blue and yellow flags, sunflowers painted blue and yellow, poster cutouts of Zelenskyy, posters to (fake) Ukrainian concerts in Moskva and St. Petersburg.
2. Proceed to drop said paraphernalia across Moskva - and perhaps a few enslaved regions of the czardom to cause additional chaos for the Kremlin to have to deal with; if nothing else, to cause a few dozen men who could be attacking Ukraine to have to deal with domestic problems.
3. Watch as the Muscovite regime literally tears itself apart - having it snuck in during the middle of the night and with no explosions, no one saw it dropping the goods all across the city; ergo, all people with Ukrainian paraphernalia *must* be Ukrainian sympathizers.
4. ???
5. Profit!

[Hydra009]

Some US equipment to be sent from Kuwait to Ukraine found to be in disrepair, not ready

All six of the M777 howitzers and 25 of 29 M1167 High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles were not "mission ready" and required repairs before U.S. European Command could send the equipment to Ukraine.

[ferdmonger]

Russia consistently makes wrong assumptions - Kyiv will fall in 3 days, greeted as liberators, the West won't arm Ukraine, the West will tire of helping Ukraine, etc.  This is yet another wrong assumption - that Ukraine won't dare attack the border because it'll alienate the West.  Ukraine found a work-around with Putin's own tactics and Russians who hate Putin (so in a way, Putin made this possible).  Plausible deniability was enough to lower Western ire (much like when Putin did it, sad to say, and a solid year of watching Russia bomb apartment buildings and hospitals did a lot to erode sympathy).  The end result of Putin's assumption is that anti-Putin Russians are tearing through border regions like a hot knife through butter.

Now Putin has to make the lose-lose decision of diverting manpower to guard the border to halt further incursions by pulling troops away from the war effort or just let the border be on fire and lose anything unguarded and deal with popular unrest and loss of face.  Partisan activity has increased in temporarily-occupied Ukraine, so Putin has to deal with that or suffer the consequences, too.  And every expenditure of resources on all this extra stuff is less spent on war.

Vlad the Lesser thought this was a football game where the other team never gets to cross the 50 yard line.  "Of course we'll win!"  Now the 50 yard line has been crossed, and Vlad's defense is confused. 

[ferdmonger]

Crimean bridge currently:

A caulking gun and some good bathroom sealant ought to do the trick.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian army destroys Russia's mainland route to Crimea with blasts in Berdyansk and Melitopol

[Hydra009]

Wagner says they're being shelled by Russian troops

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Freedom Of Russia Legion reports destroying two tanks and two armored vehicles in Belgorod region

Lol, the Russian authorities said that they've already chased them away.  That's going to be difficult to explain.  Anyone know if that Iraqi PR guy - Baghdad Bob iirc - is looking for work?

[Cassia]

Russian Maginot line.

[Hydra009]

Big numbers!  800 troops, 12 tanks, and a whopping 36 artillery and 6 mlrs!

[Hydra009]

Ticket punched: Freedom of Russia Legion reports killing Russian colonel responsible for war crimes

"He died in battle, like an officer with a weapon in his hands, but we must admit that these hands are covered up to the elbows in blood.

On his orders, he and his subordinates had systematically terrorised the population of Belgorod Oblast and violated their rights and freedoms. Earlier, Stesev killed civilians in Chechnya, Yugoslavia, Abkhazia and Ukraine."