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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Russian official threatens missile strike on the Hague

That would be an immediate Article 5 and pretty much doomsday for Russia, so it's an obvious bluff to (poorly) save face regarding the ICC's arrest warrant out for a dictator actively committing genocide and crimes against humanity.

But just making this sort of threat only justifies its necessity and further evokes this image of cartoonish villainy.  Definitely something to bear in mind during the potential peace talks.

Hydra009



Just shy of 1000, but solid work.


Hydra009


Hydra009

#2284


Anyone care to wager on them dusting off T-34s?? 😆

Hydra009

Just in case there was any doubt as to whether the 2014 conflict was a genuine secessionist movement or an invasion of unidentifiable Russian soldiers portrayed as the former:

War criminal Igor Girkin (the man who played a key role in the 2014 conflict and guilty in the court of law for shooting down a passenger plane, killing everyone on board) admits that the locals were forced at gunpoint to support the "rebellion" - i.e. it wasn't their idea.

Hydra009

#2286


I've been looking into why the Russian deathtoll is so high - apparently it's a combination of failed assaults, mostly in Bakhmut, and very precise drone/artillery strikes by the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainian drone operators allegedly often use less powerful grenades to force the Russians to take cover together in this crude foxhole/tent thing they regularly make, then the drone hits them with the big grenade and it's all over.  The Russians also have the unfortunate habit of sleeping very close together and apparently don't realize that Ukrainian drones can see in the dark.  Very unfortunate.

The Russians, especially when fighting solo, tend to do some sort of Dark Souls-esqe roll when they sense a drone drop coming, with mixed results.  Presumably, they're all trained on what to do when a drone comes their way, but they aren't given any equipment to effectively deal with the threat, so they deal with it as well as they can, which isn't great.

Hydra009

#2287
Sevastopol - the military heart of Crimea - under intense drone attack by sea and air

The Russians say they repulsed the attack and no one was hurt and nothing was damaged except for some windows in a nearby building.  Two Russian soldiers are credited with shooting down the drones with AKs (LOL)  And If you believe that, I have an Armata tank with over 200 HIMARS kills to sell ya.  What we do know for sure is that there was fire in the bay and civilian traffic is disallowed.  Anything else is speculative.

Based on the available footage (very low quality and in very dark conditions, so take it with a grain of salt) we can construct a crude timeline:

QuoteThe first explosion was heard at about 4:30 and was not very loud.
    At 4:46 a strong roar was heard in the central region of Sevastopol. From the shock wave in the apartments, windows and doors trembled, cars howled. At the same time, Sevastopol residents note that at the moment they do not see any smoke, they do not hear any sirens of special vehicles.
    Three such explosions were heard with an interval of 10-15 minutes.
    5:44 - A new explosion sound is reported.
    5:53 - Sevastopol residents say that automatic bursts are heard in the city. It is believed that there is shooting at the UAV.
    6:00 - shots and roar are still regularly heard in the sea bay. Sevastopol residents report that ships of the Black Sea Fleet are operating in the waters.
    Smoke is nowhere to be seen above the city.
    6:13 - the city is noisy again. It is reported about the active work of air defense.
Several explosions, small arms fire, activated air defense, and a fiery aftermath.  Hmmm...

Hydra009

#2288


Not huge manpower losses (comparitively), but tank and artillery losses are high.  It's very telling that an army whose tactics rely heavily on bombardment followed by massed tank assaults are getting both their artillery and tanks rapidly destroyed.

Hydra009

#2289
Ukraine says that Russian combat strength near Bakhmut is diminishing and that they will take advantage of this to push them back as they did before near Kyiv and Kharkiv

This coincides with the Russians voicing fears that Ukraine will conduct a new counteroffensive near Bakhmut

It's unclear when the Ukrainians will push them back, but it's now a matter of when, not if.  The Russians no longer have the initiative and have squandered enormous amounts of troops and equipment for very little gain.  And once this effort fails, it is not only devastating for already poor Russian morale, it makes further offensives next to impossible and thus makes Ukrainian victory a certainty.

Hydra009

US to send M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine by autumn instead of M1A2 Abrams by January

I'm glad they're speeding things up, but this is a looong time to wait.  The pivotal battles will likely happen in late spring or summer this year, so these tanks will definitely be late for the main offensive push.  Depending on how that goes, they may or may not be helpful.

Leopards have been trickling in, as have Bradelys and the French AMX, the Marders are in transit and nearly arrived, and the Challenger 2 tanks - complete with depleted uranium - are expected to arrive by the end of March.  Hopefully, that'll be enough to win these battles and the Abrams will be unnecessary.

Shiranu



I finally made it over to official Russia African propaganda channel... this... explains some of the poor takes I've been seeing from that continent; I'm curious what our uneducated youth are being exposed too and we are just in the wrong clique to be bombed with targeted propaganda...
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Hydra009

#2292
Yeah, I caught a thread in the wake of the ICC ruling against Putin and it was filled with whataboutism and hatred towards Obama and Madeleine Albright and other Western figures, whether they were related to that ruling or not.  Come to think of it, not a single one was a current head of state.

But the "spicy memes" followed an extremely familiar pattern of all attack, little-no defense, tu quoque accusations, and a "lying media" narrative that I imagine might be convincing to someone oblivious to the reality of the Ukrainian experience and already distrusting of politicians (coincidently, only the center-left ones) and the media.

Very, very familiar stuff that could've just as easily come from Fox News or InfoWars, but this stuff came from Russians.  I wonder how much of the apparent disgust for center-left politicians and policies is genuine and how much is deliberately manufactured.

Hydra009


Hydra009



Can't lose with that sort of quality training!