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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

#2070
Wagner POS who performed on stage with Ukrainian skull is himself shot in the head

It was far from the frontline, so it might have been a fellow Russian. (edit - close range with a handgun, almost certainly Russian)

He's in the hospital right now, but things aren't looking good.

Hydra009


Hydra009

The EU bans the import of refined fuels (like diesel) from Russia

Quotethe U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the U.K. — also decided to enact a global price cap of $100 per barrel on premium oil products, like diesel, and $45 per barrel on oil and fuel, to avoid an increase in gas prices that would impact consumers. The G7 agreement bars access to maritime services like shipping, marine insurers, and other services on any ships carrying Russian oil products unless they are purchased at the set price or below, NPR reports.

The U.S. federal government's other sanctions—including a full block of Russia's largest financial institution and private bank, a ban on any new investments in Russia by Americans—have effectively limited Russia's war supply, causing major shortages for semiconductors and a near stop to Russia's missile production, according to a factsheet from the U.S. Department of State.
The ban of Russian crude oil last year caused about a 46% drop in Russian gas/oil revenues.

Hydra009

870 invader KIA today, plus 11 tanks and 10 armored vehicles.

Hydra009

Zelenskyy tweeted his condolences for the major earthquake in Turkey and readiness to send aid

QuoteI extend my condolences to the President @RTErdogan, the people of 🇹🇷 and the families of those who lost their lives in the earthquake in 🇹🇷 and wish a speedy recovery to all the injured. We stand with the people of 🇹🇷 in this difficult time. We are ready to provide the necessary assistance to overcome the consequences of the disaster.

Hydra009


Hydra009

Apparently, there's footage of Wagnerites killing their commander in a spectacularly brutal way.  High octane NSFL, so I won't be linking anything.

QuoteNear Bakhmut, Wagner mercenaries tried to advance, but their commander was wounded.  Then the colleagues carried their commander behind the shed and hacked him to death with an axe.
I'd wager a guess that he had been doing a lot more than bad command decisions, probably some pretty bad stuff behind the scenes, too.  Because I doubt garden variety bad leadership would warrant this sort of extreme reaction.

SGOS

Quote from: Hydra009 on February 06, 2023, 10:21:25 PMApparently, there's footage of Wagnerites killing their commander in a spectacularly brutal way.  High octane NSFL, so I won't be linking anything.
I'd wager a guess that he had been doing a lot more than bad command decisions, probably some pretty bad stuff behind the scenes, too.  Because I doubt garden variety bad leadership would warrant this sort of extreme reaction.
I would like to understand why this happened. I find myself speculating in too many directions and at a lack for closure. 

Hydra009


Hydra009

#2079
1030 invader kia today, 14 tanks, 28 armored vehicles 🎉



Ukrainian forces are certainly busy!  Not sure if those numbers are so high because of the failed advance at Vuhledar or because they've started the second attempt to push towards Kyiv.

Hydra009

#2080


Unrealistic objectives with subpar units.  Well, that explains the high number of kia.  This sort of top-down bungling really swings the war in favor of the Ukrainians.

If the Russians fought intelligently (combined arms, high degree of discipline and coordination, good logistics and training), this war would be very different.

Of course, for Russia to fight better, it'd also have to be very different politically and then, why would it fight this war at all?

This just goes to show that dictatorships are inherently inferior, since they fail at the one thing they claim they're good at.  The narrative is that western states are decadent and weak but they have better supplies, better training, more motivated soldiers, a better ability to innovate and change tactics, and much more numerous and more helpful allies.

In short, dictatorships are only good for dictators.

Blackleaf

Quote from: Hydra009 on February 07, 2023, 10:28:32 AM

Unrealistic objectives with subpar units.  Well, that explains the high number of kia.  This sort of top-down bungling really swings the war in favor of the Ukrainians.

If the Russians fought intelligently (combined arms, high degree of discipline and coordination, good logistics and training), this war would be very different.

Of course, for Russia to fight better, it'd also have to be very different politically and then, why would it fight this war at all?

This just goes to show that dictatorships are inherently inferior, since they fail at the one thing they claim they're good at.  The narrative is that western states are decadent and weak but they have better supplies, better training, more motivated soldiers, a better ability to innovate and change tactics, and much more numerous and more helpful allies.

In short, dictatorships are only good for dictators.

Some have supposed that a dictator would be better for cohesion and quickness of action. That does make make sense intuitively, yet it's not what we see in real life dictators. Turns out it might not be best to entrust an entire country to one man. Even in the best of possible scenarios, there's a common phrase that applies. Jack of all trades, master of none.
"Oh, wearisome condition of humanity,
Born under one law, to another bound;
Vainly begot, and yet forbidden vanity,
Created sick, commanded to be sound."
--Fulke Greville--

Hydra009

#2082
Putin has certainly been decisive.  He decides on the wrong action very, very quickly.

And I dunno about cohesion.  A recent Preun video went over it more thoroughly and eloquently than I could hope to, but essentially dictatorships - whether they're under Putin or Hitler, can't allow the military to be unified and politically powerful enough to depose the dictator.  The solution?  Break up the military into different competing factions so none of them are strong enough to revolt alone, and there's constant rivalry so they're unlikely to team up and this bickering allows the dictator to act as peacemaker between them.  It works, sort of (while the dictator is still alive) but it's horribly ineffecient and uncoordinated.


Hydra009



Just a VDV commander who retired as a major general coming out of retirement to lead a motorized regiment.  Totally normal /s

(very seriously not normal, and speaks to serious lack of junior officers)