Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Israel now considering sending its Iron Dome system to Ukraine

This is quite a reversal from its flat no months ago.  Not a yes, though.  But it is good that they're warming up to the idea.  Though afaik, the Iron Dome is ineffective against supersonic cruise missiles, like the ones Russia uses, so it's not a silver bullet, but rather an extra layer of air defense.

Israel notably has experienced rising tensions with Iran, and the recent string of explosions in Iran targeting several military installations was likely carried out by Israel.  Naturally, Ukraine benefits from such action.  And the enemy of my enemy...

[Hydra009]

Denmark to send 20 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine

They plan to buy 20 refurbished Leopards from Germany company FFG, repair them, then send them to Ukraine.

[Hydra009]

Not really news, just confirmation of what we already know: both interest in Russian arms exports and Russia's ability to supply them are cratering.

Because who wants to buy vehicles that'll end up getting smashed by US/NATO weapons?  And there's no way Russia can fill many orders abroad and supply the domestic war effort.  It's impossible.  Hell, it's plausible that they redirected tanks meant for India and sent it to Ukraine instead.  Reneging on deals, especially arms deals, doesn't exactly inspire repeat business.  The world's 2nd largest arms exporter was already in decline and definitely isn't going to hold its rank for much longer.

Finally, I just want to point out that Russia's financial loss is a financial gain for the US and the EU.  Someone has to fill that void, and if your gear is shown on countless videos smashing Russian tanks, well guess who gets the business?  Everyone and their brother wants a Leopard now and will for years to come.  The situation in Ukraine has many countries looking to upgrade their own arsenals.  It's the opportunity of a lifetime.

[Hydra009]

Russia sends riot police to tend to conscript morale

EU doubles Ukrainian soldiers being trained, increases military aid

Hmmm...I wonder which approach will succeed.  🤔

[Unbeliever]

Well, surely riot police will do wonders for morale. 🧐

[Hydra009]

And even North Korea knows it

North Korea was going to send workers to occupied Ukraine, but scaled back its plans after figuring out that the war isn't going too well and Russia can't promise that the occupied areas will stay occupied.

But even the officials preparing the speech are said to be aware that they may be forced to drastically rewrite it if Russia suffers new setbacks on the battlefield.

If Ukraine conducts successful counter-offensives in the next couple weeks, two sources said, Putin's speech will have "more aggressive" rhetoric.

Oh no, not "aggressive rhetoric"!  Anything but that!  From the guy making nuke threats for months, psssht.  Unless he's calling to say he personally surrenders, no one in the free world cares what this nobody says.

This counter-offensive stuff sounds interesting, but it'll almost certainly be on hold till the Leopards make their way to the frontlines, something like April at the earliest.

[Hydra009]

Germany to send 88 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine

I kinda wish they had rounded up to 90, but that's just the number they have.  They also need to be repaired before being sent.

[Hydra009]

840 invader kia today

[Hydra009]

Russia is gearing up for yet another major offensive and hoping that this one will succeed where all the other ones have failed.

He plans to strike in March, roughly on the anniversary of the year-long 3-day special operation.  This timing is interesting in that it comes just before the earliest tank shipments are expected for Ukraine, so presumably Putin expects to strike during a period of vulnerability.  But Ukrainian forces are constantly receiving new equipment and coming back from training, so Ukraine is actually somewhat less vulnerable with each passing week.  It is actually Russia who is getting weaker over time, and telegraphing its haymakers probably doesn't help.

According to ISW, Russia doesn't have the sort of manpower to achieve much and such an offensive will likely end by April.  And increased Russian losses will yet again leave them spread thin and vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattack - this time with Western tanks/IFVs.

[Hydra009]

Portugal will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.  We just don't have an exact number right now.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine hacked into a teleconference between Moscow and collaborators

The collaborators received a gentle knock at the door, LOL

[Hydra009]

Russian forces are really struggling near Vuhledar

Out of 8 vehicles, only the tank appears to be fully operational and a glancing blow from Ukrainian artillery (I have to be specific because sometimes they hit their own) ignites the back part of the tank.  The tank hightails it out of there, dodging an incoming artillery shot, but the fire wins and it too is knocked out of action.

[Hydra009]

RT DE (Russian state media operating in Germany) shut down

[Hydra009]

Welcome back, Commander

Ukrainian forces deploy Delta (a situational awareness system which allows real-time coordination of troops)

This system has already been in use.  For example, almost every unit that participated in the battles for Kyiv used it.  I suppose the news here is that it is being significantly upgraded, as well as storing data outside Ukraine (parts unknown, but if I had to guess, Poland)

[Hydra009]

Oil depot catches fire mysteriously in Belogrod region of Russia

It should be noted that a bridge-making plant nearby was also damaged and this site was where the bridge in Crimea was constructed.