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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

#1740
Update on the oil cap saga:

Quote"From this year, Europe will live without Russian oil," Ulyanov tweeted. "Moscow has already made it clear that it will not supply oil to those countries that support anti-market price caps.

QuoteRussia's crude has already been selling for around $60 a barrel, a deep discount from international benchmark Brent, which closed Friday at $85.42 per barrel.
Okay, so I want to get this straight:

1) Russian oil is already selling at less than $60 a barrel.  That's the market rate.
2) The EU says it won't pay a dime more than $60 a barrel to Russia again.
3) Russia freaks out at this "anti-market" rate that doesn't affect anything right now because of #1 and threatens to not sell oil to Europe at all, essentially embargoing itself (that'll teach 'em!)

Essentially, Russia is mad at basically just disrespect at this point and threatens to not allow Europe to fuel its genocidal war.  Oh no, anything but that! /sarcasm

QuoteThe Russian Embassy in Washington insisted that Russian oil "will continue to be in demand"
LOL, then what's the problem?  Why so upset?

Quoteand criticized the price limit as "reshaping the basic principles of the functioning of free markets."


QuoteThe office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, called Saturday for a lower price cap, saying the one adopted by the EU and the Group of Seven leading economies didn't go far enough.

"It would be necessary to lower it to $30 in order to destroy the enemy's economy faster," Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelenskyy's office, wrote on Telegram, staking out a position also favored by Poland — a leading critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.
Zelensky favors Poland's $30/barrel cap.  Based.

Hydra009

Conscripted Russians just walk off base, go AWOL:


This allegedly happened at a military base in Kazan:


Hydra009

Here's some interesting news: Ukrainian forces have raised their flag on the south bank of the Dnieper river.

So they have successfully crossed the river and formed a bridgehead to threaten Russian positions in the area.

Hydra009

Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian SU-34 near Bakhmut

Fun fact: only 151 of these were ever built, so each loss is pretty significant.  By October, Russia had lost at least 17 in Ukraine.  Now it's 18, afaik.

Hydra009

Some Russian areas languish in the cold because utility workers were mobilized

QuoteThe "We can explain" Telegram channel reports that several regions and cities in Russia, including Astrakhan, Krasnodar and Rostov, are suffering problems with their communal heating systems because the engineers responsible for maintaining them have been mobilised.

QuoteDespite being engineers, most of the mobilised workers were used as infantry. They were "told to hold a difficult section of the front, although there were no professional soldiers among our men, some had just finished their military studies, others were already in their 40s."
They were mobilized after the mobilization officially "ended" and essential workers are supposed to be exempt, but they're often mobilized anyway.

Hydra009

Everyone's favorite Aussie giving hour-long powerpoint presentations about war/economics/logistics is back!


I haven't finished the video yet, but I have seen some indicators that winter might be a tad rougher on the Russians than the Ukrainians:

QuoteUnder-trained, under-supplied and ambivalently led, Russians in the region are freezing to death by the dozen.

Shocking videos that have circulated online in recent weeks tell a tragic story. The videos, shot by the Ukrainian brigades' hovering drones, depict Russians in the late stages of hypothermia, so cold and sick that they barely react when the drones drop lethal improvised bombs on them.
And that was in November.

Hydra009

#1746
Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down recently

Happens quite often, so it wouldn't be big news in and of itself, but the crew was highly decorated and "productive" on the front.  Suffice it to say their output (and altitude) has fallen sharply.

Hydra009

#1747
Iranian Shahed drones haven't been seen in Ukraine for over two weeks, fueling speculation that Russia has spent its entire stock quickly

That's a possibility, but the more likely explanation is that they simply can't function in cold climates

Yep, you read that right.  The drones that Russia - a country famous for being cold - uses to invade a country that is often also quite cold can't tolerate cold temperatures.  That would be fine if these drones made their debut in April or May, but no, they debuted in friggin' October - a month that's typically not super far away from winter.  It makes no sense!

Evidentially, the Russians were in the process of buying them back in June.  They just kind of forgot that training and deployments tend to take a while - it's not visiting a car dealership and driving it off the lot the same day.

Either way, this kind of stuff-up definitely put a crimp in Kremlin plans and lends itself to some rather unflattering comparisons:


Hydra009

#1748
Explosions reported at two Russian airbases

A fuel tanker exploded at the airbase near Ryazan.  Careless smoking, no doubt.

And the Engels airbase hosts strategic bombers for aggression in some unknown region and some of this aggression may have found its way back, damaging two bombers.  It could have been worse. 

Perhaps for everyone's safety, those bombers should remain parked and wait for lingering aggression to subside.  Shouldn't take more than a couple years.

Hydra009

High-profile collaborator arrested in Kherson

QuoteAt the beginning of the full-scale invasion, he supported the occupiers and agreed to head one of the branches of a Russian bank.

Quote[He] tried to set up more than 200 banking "representative offices" of Russia in the region.  And most of these funds were to finance the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine.

QuoteHe set up his workplace in the building of the captured state bank. Heading the invaders' bank, the "official" forced local entrepreneurs to switch to commercial settlements in Russian rubles and deduct part of the profits for the benefit of the occupation administration.

After the liberation of Kherson from the invaders, the man tried to hide in one of the city's hospitals. However, he was tracked down and detained.


Hydra009

#1751
As has become second nature to Russia at this point, Russia launched another volley of missiles at civilian targets in order to seemingly make up for huge military setbacks and assorted failures.

Out of around 70 missiles, 60+ were successfully shot down


The invaders targeted energy facilities in the Kyiv, Vinnytsia and Odesa regions.

Two civilians were killed in the Zaporizhzhia region.  Three more civilians were injured, including a child.

In the Odesa region, some houses were hit, injuring two civilians.

Kalibur missiles shot at civilian houses.  Russia is certainly a terrorist state.  That is the plain and obvious truth of the matter.

Another truth is that some of these missiles were fired from the half-dead Black Sea fleet.  This act of terrorism is deserving of another visit by the Black Sea drone fleet, this time not stopping at mere damage, but utterly wiping out the terrorist presence there and reuniting the Moskva with the rest of its fleet.

Hydra009

#1752
Russia begs Israel not to interfere in its transfer of military equipment from Syria to Ukraine

Of course, if Israel were to interfere in a Nazi-esqe invasion in eastern europe, it would not only save lives, it would also infuriate a pariah dictator who can do little to retaliate and win Israel the gratitude of Ukraine and goodwill from most of the rest of the world.

Decisions, decisions...

Hydra009

The Kursk airfield is on fire.  Cause unknown.

Hydra009

Mysterious fire in Russian territory not far from Ukraine

QuotePresumably, two drones flew into the territory of the plant, located in Bryansk Oblast 80 km from the Ukrainian border. They fell and exploded three meters away from five-ton fuel tanks with diesel fuel. As the tanks were empty at this moment, a "serious fire" was avoided, Baza claimed. However, a video shared by a local Telegram channel shows that a rather large fire
Russians say the fuel tanks were empty and undamaged. 

Video shows tanks on fire, and it stands to reason, something within them consumed by fire.

How to reconcile these mutually exclusive claims?