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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Institute of War assessment

QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of "partial mobilization" on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months.[1] Putin's order to mobilize part of Russia's "trained" reserve, that is, individuals who have completed their mandatory conscript service, will not generate significant usable Russian combat power for months. It may suffice to sustain the current levels of Russian military manpower in 2023 by offsetting Russian casualties, although even that is not yet clear. It will occur in deliberate phases, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview on September 21, likely precluding any sudden influx of Russian forces that could dramatically shift the tide of the war.[2] Russia's partial mobilization will thus not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate more of its occupied territory into and through the winter.

QuoteRussian reserves are poorly trained to begin with and receive no refresher training once their conscription period is completed. Russian mandatory military service is only one year, which gives conscripts little time to learn how to be soldiers, to begin with. The absence of refresher training after that initial period accelerates the degradation of learned soldier skills over time. Shoigu referred to the intent of calling up reservists with "combat experience," but very few Russian reservists other than those now serving in Ukraine have any combat experience.

QuotePutin's speech should not be read as an explicit threat that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if Ukraine continues counter-offensives against occupied territories after annexation.

QuoteRussia's partial mobilization will not transform the war this year and may or may not have a significant impact on Russia's ability to continue operations at their current level next year.  Ukraine and the West should neither dismiss it nor exaggerate it.

Hydra009

#1351
How do average Russians feel about the partial mobilization?  Varying levels of dislike, bordering on violent resistance at times.

Putin has definitely made yet another strategic error, and this one certainly has the potential to blossom into a fatal error, especially if he starts general conscription.




Hydra009

#1354


It's all fun and games till you're stuck in a T-62.

Edit - also, "finding" millions of conscripts in prisons is nothing to be proud of, it's in fact living proof of a country gone wrong, and this is coming from an American

Shiranu

QuoteEdit - also, "finding" millions of conscripts in prisons is nothing to be proud of, it's in fact living proof of a country gone wrong, and this is coming from an American

This to the hundredth degree - every time they try to bring America up, it's just like... "Yes, I'm aware of this; and even I am looking at you and going, 'Damn, being American isn't all that bad actually.'."

The 2000s might go down as the "Era of the Projections".
Gloire à Hélios y Perséphone, pardonnez, Demeter et Mat Zemlya.

Hydra009

Quote from: Shiranu on September 22, 2022, 06:36:10 PMThis to the hundredth degree - every time they try to bring America up, it's just like... "Yes, I'm aware of this; and even I am looking at you and going, 'Damn, being American isn't all that bad actually.'."

The 2000s might go down as the "Era of the Projections".
I have an image saved up for the inevitable whataboutism:


Hydra009

A train full of T-62 tanks explodes near Donetsk City

I thought this was old news, but apparently it's brand new.  The one I was thinking about was back in August and that was the 4th one so far.  Russian high command sure knows how to mass-produce mistakes.  Though they're T-62s, so it's not like Russia lost anything valuable.

Hydra009

Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down

A "flying tank", they say.  Well, there are plenty of tank wrecks in Ukraine, too.


Hydra009


Hydra009

Russians sell military vehicle to Ukraine

No credit, no problem!  At Discount Zel's, we'll give you cash for your clunkers!  Worn out chinese tires?  No problem! Hit a tree?  No problem!  Drive into a lake?  No problem!  Turret toss?  No problem!  We will not be undersold!  Come get a Lada without paying a latta!

Shiranu

Russia - World's Second Strongest Army*






*hobo army.

Quality of the Drafties
Gloire à Hélios y Perséphone, pardonnez, Demeter et Mat Zemlya.

Hydra009



Bunker Vlad pisses himself in fear every day this war drags on and goes more and more poorly.  He knows the last bullet in this war is for him.

Dark Lightning

It's time for the Polonium cat for Putin...