Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian air force blows up invader ammo depot, up to 30 armored vehicles, and a vehicle repair depot

[Hydra009]

Cisco to leave Russia and Belarus  They had previously suspended operations on March 3rd, now they're completely leaving.

Russia has already had network problems.  Expect to hear about major service outages later on this year.

[Hydra009]

Kallingrad business owner complains about sanctions and how rough he has it.

I hear ya, man.  Things are pretty rough for Ukrainian civilians, too - massacred, homes destroyed, or trying to survive in occupied territory.  And let's not forget the hundreds of thousands of people Putin will starve with this deliberate grain disruption.  But sure, let's hear about the woes of a concrete business.

"We aren't making anything, so builders can't build anything. There's a chain reaction. We have nothing to pay contractors, taxes or wages."

No tax revenue?!  Awful. Just awful.  One quick question: to whom is this tax money owed and how will they spend it?  Ok, maybe not so awful after all.

"I hope we can reach an agreement with the Lithuanians on transit, because they're not bad people," Svetlana tells me.

"They're not evil! The Poles aren't bad, either. We don't share a border with Russia, but with Poland and Lithuania. They're like family to us. We need to restore relations."

Yeah, it's important to be on good terms with one's neighbors, isn't it?

Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he's peace-loving and against Putin.  Wars have far-reaching consequences.  In fact, they primarily affect the blameless.  His is one such example among a great many.  I hope he realizes that it's not the Lithuanians who did this to him, it was ultimately Putin's war of aggression that hurt his business.  If Putin had kept his tanks on his side of the border, Kallingrad would not be under sanctions and his concrete business would be operating normally.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian forces are pulling out of Severodonetsk.

Not the best sounding headline in the world, but a necessary move.  A largely obliterated town with no strategic value.  Its only value was luring Russian troops to a place where they could be bombarded.  An extremely costly and mostly hollow "victory" for Putin.

And since Putin put almost everything he had in taking it - it's amazing that the Ukrainians held out as long as they did while heavily outnumbered - russian advances on the eastern front have lost a lot of steam.

Hopefully, as Ukrainian forces transition to western equipment, retaking it will be much, much easier than defending it.

As the Institute for the study of war puts it:

An unnamed Pentagon official noted that Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk will allow Ukrainian troops to secure better defensive positions and further wear down Russian manpower and equipment.[3] The Pentagon official noted that Russian forces pushing on Severodonetsk already show signs of "wear and tear" and "debilitating morale," which will only further slow Russian offensive operations in Donbas.

Russian forces have been attempting to seize Severodonetsk since at least March 13, exhausting their forces and equipment over three months.[4]

Ukrainian forces will likely maintain their defenses around Lysychansk and continue to exhaust Russian troops after the fall of Severodonetsk.

[drunkenshoe]

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/vk7rh7/russian_surfacetoair_missile_does_a_uturn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

[Hydra009]

Yep.  An absolutely amazing example of self-destruction.  I wish that all their launches went so terribly awry.

There has also been footage of missiles that didn't quite take off and ones that didn't explode on impact, like that one that famously lodged itself in someone's kitchen (apparently, the stove was a high-value strategic target)

All in all, about a 60% failure rate.  Unfortunately, they seem to be deliberately targetting urban centers to sow terror and civilian deaths, where precision is not important.

[drunkenshoe]

60 %?! Oh, glad to hear that. Thanks for saying something good. Hard to come by these days. Everything's so fucked up everywhere... I admit, I've watched it a dozen times.

[Hydra009]

Periodically, Russia claims that it has destroyed a western arms shipment, or captured western equipment in Ukraine, or killed some NATO forces operating in Ukraine (a particularly difficult task since there are no NATO forces in Ukraine)

I've waited with baited breath for evidence, yet none is ever forthcoming.

Such claims are falsehoods concocted mainly to buoy flagging Russian morale by implying that western arms are not bolstering Ukrainian forces (the opposite is true) and to sow division among Allies by implying that arms shipments are not having much of an effect (the opposite is true).

Every now and then, some particularly credulous or russian-aligned western politician or shoddy news network falls for it and repeats dubious/deceitful claims ultimately coming from the Kremlin.  Either way, it highlights the wisdom of putting more trust in those with credibility than those without it.

[Hydra009]

Here's a strange story

Ex-Ukranian MP bought millions of dollars worth of historical artifacts stolen from Crimea, then fled to Russia on the eve of the invasion.

In addition, Horbatov is directly involved in the activities of the Horlivka Paper Mill and the Charitable Union (BS) LLC, which operate in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, pay taxes there and, in fact, finance illegal armed terrorist groups.

SBI Director Oleksiy Sukhachov said that the agency's investigators had gathered irrefutable evidence of Horbatov's involvement in financing actions aimed at overthrowing the constitutional order in Ukraine, changing its borders or state border, and justifying aggression against Ukraine.

Suffice it to say that his interests extend far beyond old clay pots.

The obvious question: why didn't he bring his treasure trove with him?  More than likely, he couldn't move it in time, so he hid it and fully expected to return to it at war's end, which he likely thought wouldn't take very long.  Quite the miscalculation.

[Hydra009]

Catching some Zs:  reportedly, HIMARS first target 🌻

Official UA source

On June 24, the Ukrainians destroyed a command post of the 20th Army of the Russian Armed Forces' Western Military District (unit 89425, originally based in Voronezh), located in a school building. As a result of the strike, a significant number of Russian officers with the army headquarters were hit, while much of the enemy equipment parked at the site was damaged.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian forces also hit 6 invader MRLS

One got brewed up so badly that missiles fired themselves off in random directions.  There's not going to be any salvage from that one.

[Hydra009]

Russian cruise missiles strike Kyiv, hitting a residential building and a kindergarten playground.

Among the seriously wounded is a russian citizen and her daughter

They also shelled to death a 13-year-old riding her bike.  :(

Edit: Russian hot takes on the situation are every bit as bloodthirsty while simultaneously cowardly as everyone has come to expect from them.  Dictator-loving Z-zombies abandoned their humanity long ago.

[Hydra009]

Russia has increased its military presence in Belarus and launched an increasing number of attacks from Belarus, likely both as an attempt to draw Belarus into Putin's war of aggression and as a cowardly sort of protection, since Ukrainian forces cannot retaliate without attacking Belarus and giving it cause to go to war.

Russia has also threatened to attack Lithuania and threatened to deploy nukes in Belarus.

[Hydra009]

The wolf bites back:  Ukraine strikes ammo depots deep in temporarily occupied territory

Due to Ukraine's relative scarcity of soviet rockets, Ukraine has had to use them sparingly.  So some juicy targets have unfortunately been neglected.  Donated HIMARS changes that. 

And Ukraine is making good use of them by striking Russia's weakspot - logistics and C&C - ammo depots and command posts respectively.  Without copious munitions, Russia's indiscriminate bombing campaign is significantly lessened.  And without officers to spur on troops, orcs simply hold their current position indefinitely.

In short, HIMARS are slowing down Russia's offensive, eventually stalling it and allowing Ukraine to go on the offensive.

[Hydra009]

Russia finally defaults

Sanctions have made an impact, but Russia is by no means destitute.  Russia still sells plenty of oil and natural gas to the West and others.  But its military still relies on some western components, despite attempts to DIY replacements, and losing access to that has crippled production of advanced weapon systems.  Also, its civilian service economy has been heavily disrupted, and while Russia has tried to rely on non-western replacements, you can't just DIY semiconductors, so things are not progressing well for Russia in that area.  Ukraine is hitting Russia's service sector about as hard as the worst days of covid.